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Disruptive technology roadmaps
Abstract
Disruptive technologies create growth in the industries they penetrate or create entirely new industries through the introduction of products and services that are dramatically cheaper, better, and more convenient. These disruptive technologies often disrupt workforce participation by allowing technologically unsophisticated individuals to enter and become competitive in the industrial workforce. Disruptive technologies offer a revolutionary change in the conduct of processes or operations.Disruptive technologies can evolve from the confluence of seemingly diverse technologies or can be a result of an entirely new technological investigation. Existing planning processes are notoriously poor in identifying the mix of sometimes highly disparate technologies required to address the multiple performance objectives of a particular niche in the market. For a number of reasons, especially the inability to look beyond short-term profitability, and the risk/return tradeoff of longer term projects, it is suggested that current strategic planning and management processes promote sustaining technologies at the expense of disruptive technologies.We propose a systematic approach to identify disruptive technologies that is realistic and operable and takes advantage of the text mining literature. This literature-based discovery process is especially useful in identifying potential disruptive technologies that may require the input from many diverse technological and management areas. We believe that this process holds great potential for identifying projects with a higher probability of downstream success. Further, we suggest a process to take the identified potential disruptive technology from the “idea stage” through to the development of a potentially feasible product for the market. This second stage makes use of workshops and roadmapping to codify the ideas of technological and management experts, who were identified in the literature-based discovery stage. Our goal is to describe and explain the pragmatic steps suggested by our innovative and practical process.The proposed process could identify technologies whose eventual development and application to specific problems would generate innovative products. The goal is to isolate technologies that have the potential to redefine an industry, or alternatively, have the potential to create an entirely new industrial setting. Use the text-mining component of literature-based discovery to identify both the technical disciplines that are likely candidates for disruptive technological products, and experts in these critical technical and managerial disciplines. While we know that this is but one way to investigate nascent disruptive technologies we feel it is imperative that the representatives of these potentially critical technical disciplines are included in the roadmap development process, either as implementers or as consultants.Every firm is looking for “the next great thing”. Literature-based discovery offers a starting point for identifying at least a portion of the major contributory technical and managerial disciplines necessary for potential disruptive technologies and discontinuous innovations. Combining literature-based discovery with a practical workshop/roadmap process dramatically enhances the likelihood of success.
... Since Christensen's view of disruptive innovation was proposed, it has attracted many discussions among scholars from different research backgrounds. Some scholars misunderstood disruptive innovation as equivalent to discontinuous innovation or radical innovation (Abernathy & Clark, 1985;Kostoff et al., 2004;Shahady et al., 2008). Kassicieh et al. (2002) and Kostoff et al. (2004) held similar opinions that disruptive innovation or disruptive technology is scientific discoveries that broke through the usual product/technology capabilities to provide a basis for a new competitive paradigm. ...
... Some scholars misunderstood disruptive innovation as equivalent to discontinuous innovation or radical innovation (Abernathy & Clark, 1985;Kostoff et al., 2004;Shahady et al., 2008). Kassicieh et al. (2002) and Kostoff et al. (2004) held similar opinions that disruptive innovation or disruptive technology is scientific discoveries that broke through the usual product/technology capabilities to provide a basis for a new competitive paradigm. Markides (2006) conceived that Christensen's proposal mixed definitions of disruptive technological innovation and disruptive business model innovation or disruptive product Innovation. ...
... Thomond et al. (2003) constructed a conceptual framework for implementing the disruptive innovation strategy by considering enterprise innovation strategies and human resources' support with the following four steps: opportunity identification, opportunity development, solution development, and sales process. Kostoff et al. (2004) proposed a two-step method to create disruptive technologies: creating appropriate ideas based on text mining of literature and specialized seminars and roadmap training. Bao et al. (2020) proposed path selection method for disruptive innovation by using extension models, which can solve incompatible problems hierarchically and in stages. ...
Disruptive innovation has attracted much interest, discussion and argument in academia and industry since it was defined. Based on a review of the related research publications, this paper aims to clarify the concept of disruptive innovation on controversies, summarize ex-ante studies on project management for disruptive product innovation, and propose potential research areas of the disruptive product innovation. The ex-ante studies are classified into three aspects: timing and conditions of disruptive innovation, factors for the implementation of disruptive innovation, forecasting and implementation of disruptive innovation. After a review of the existing methods of disruptive innovation, the potential research of disruptive innovation is presented.
... They have a proactive high risk-high payoff but enable significant long-term benefits. They enable revolutionary alteration in the conduct of operations [41]. ...
... It takes several years for them to take over the market. The main advantages can be put in order as enabling a vying advantage [49], enhancing the success of the company in the industry in which it operates, improving processes and operations, contributing to the growth of the industry, creating new industries, improving the delivery of goods and services and ensuring the participation of the non-technologically advanced workforce [41]. Furthermore, it encourages disruptive innovations [50]. ...
... Determining the mix of technologies is complicated in terms of planning processes and performance targets. The technologies to be selected should be evaluated in terms of long-term profitability, low risk/return balance of longterm projects and their contribution to sustainability, and existing strategic planning and management processes during the selection of technology process [41]. Moreover, DTs are a threat to companies that do not utilize them because companies that adopt these technologies tend to replace established companies that do not adopt them [5]. ...
The concept of disruptive technology has been in our lives for many years, and it is essential to measure their utilization levels to survive in the global competitive environment, to benefit from their contributions to supply chains, to examine their relations with supply chain operations and to compare them with average state of the industry. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a measurement instrument for supply chain management practices in the disruptive technology field. Accordingly, the study was carried out in five steps and the sample size consists of 47 companies as pilot data and 426 companies for the main data. These steps consist of item generation and purification, pilot test, initial identification of dimensionality, dimensionality confirmation and convergent validity assessment. As a result of the study, a new scale with a single factor structure was developed. The study ends with the evaluation of the findings. Correcting the lack of a measurement tool developed in this field in the literature is the theoretical contribution of the study. Furthermore, this study enables supply chain leaders to compare their utilization level of disruptive technology with the industries in which they operate, to associate it with operations and to enhance technology investments in practice.
... The information extracted is used to create patent maps and patent networks for technology opportunities that can be used to support new product development. The graphical representation of the relationships between patents in the networks helps firms identify possible disruptive technologies at the early stages of the innovation process, thus supporting technology forecasting (Kostoff et al., 2001) and the creation of innovative products (Kostoff et al., 2004). The implementation of knowledge management practices has been found to enhance product and process innovation (Lee et al., 2013). ...
... Moreover, given the rapid development of digital technologies (AI in particular) and related innovation management practice, this SLR aims to assist innovation scholars and practitioners to keep track of novel research findings that are beyond their main area of specialization and that represent indeed a frontier in innovation research. Second, our findings suggest that there are seven established topical areas that are informing developments in the research field at the intersection of AI and innovation: digital transformation (e.g., Frank et al., 2019;Warner and Wäger, 2019); smart cities and open innovation management and radical innovation (e.g., Abella et al., 2017;Randhawa et al., 2016); technological innovation systems (e.g., Coenen and Díaz López, 2010;Musiolik et al., 2020); technological forecasting and technological opportunities (e.g., Boon and Park, 2005;Kostoff et al., 2004); knowledge management and radical innovation (e.g., Lettl, 2007;Santoro et al., 2018); digital technology consumer acceptance (e.g., Bolton et al., 2018;Miltgen et al., 2013); green innovation and supply chain (e.g., El-Kassar and Singh, 2019;Kiani Mavi et al., 2019). Interestingly, several studies cover more than one theme and/or different disciplinary areas (Dwivedi et al., 2021;Loebbecke and Picot, 2015;Mariani et al., 2022;Scuotto et al., 2016). ...
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly adopted by organizations to innovate, and this is ever more reflected in scholarly work. To illustrate, assess and map research at the intersection of AI and innovation, we performed a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) of published work indexed in the Clarivate Web of Science (WOS) and Elsevier Scopus databases (the final sample includes 1448 articles). A bibliometric analysis was deployed to map the focal field in terms of dominant topics and their evolution over time. By deploying keyword co-occurrences, and bibliographic coupling techniques, we generate insights on the literature at the intersection of AI and innovation research. We leverage the SLR findings to provide an updated synopsis of extant scientific work on the focal research area and to develop an interpretive framework which sheds light on the drivers and outcomes of AI adoption for innovation. We identify economic, technological, and social factors of AI adoption in firms willing to innovate. We also uncover firms' economic, competitive and organizational, and innovation factors as key outcomes of AI deployment. We conclude this paper by developing an agenda for future research.
... Text mining technology has a wide range of applications in technical fields, mainly in two aspects: One is based on statistical analysis of the literature and citation analysis methods. For example, Kostoff et al. [25] used text mining technology based on literature discovery to determine the possible subversive technical disciplines of sexual technology products and include them in the drawing of technical routes. Huang et al. [26] used the method of bibliometrics to discover the key technical fields of the solar cell industry and construct a scientific and technological planning framework for the industry. ...
The semi-automatic construction and analysis of technology roadmaps are at the forefront of applying artificial intelligence techniques. To clarify the development path of the core technologies in the field of agricultural machinery, we propose a core technology evolution path analysis method based on patent text semantic mining. First, the key sentences in the text were extracted, and the BERT model was used to represent the topic’s key sentences in semantic vectorization. Then, the technology roadmap was constructed through the unsupervised LDA topic clustering method, and the main fields of activity, blank fields, and fields of agricultural machinery were visually analyzed. Next, investment in research fields was strengthened. Finally, we mapped the technology roadmap and patent IPC codes and found that the evolution of core technologies in the field of agricultural machinery could be divided into the technology development stage, technology focus stage, and technology transformation stage; this allows us to analyze the evolution and integration of these core technologies. The internal laws of the technology evolution provide a reference for future research plans of governments, enterprises, and institutions, aiding in the patent portfolio planning by revealing the microlevel process of technology integration and the technological trends in agricultural machinery.
... varias Tecnologías Disruptivas (TD) sustentadas en principios científicos diferentes a los que han predominado en las últimas décadas (Kostoff ...[et al], 2004). El resultado de la interacción entre los dos conjuntos es un escenario de acelerada diseminación tecnológica e incrementos en los riesgos de obsolescencia. ...
Este trabajo estudia el riesgo por desempleo tecnológico en México, tanto
a nivel nacional como en dos entidades federativas: Querétaro (QRO) y
San Luis Potosí (SLP). Utilizando la metodología de Frey y Osborne (2013)
adaptada al Sistema Nacional de Ocupaciones de INEGI, se encontró que
tanto QRO (51%) como SLP (57%) están por debajo del promedio nacional
(67%) de ocupados con alto riesgo por desempleo tecnológico. No obstante,
la situación cambia al analizar algunos sectores estratégicos en QRO, como
el alimentario con un promedio de desempleo del 84%, el automotriz con
75% y el de electrodomésticos con 92%. Lo mismo ocurre en SLP, donde
el sector de alimentos alcanza un 95% y el automotriz un 93%. Por lo
tanto, este fenómeno no puede ser analizado solo desde una perspectiva
nacional o estatal, sino que también se requiere una mirada sectorial
... The methodology of literature-based discovery provides a foundation for determining a substantial number of the central technical and managerial disciplines that are required for the potential development of disruptive technologies and discontinuous innovations. When coupled with a practical workshop or roadmap process, it significantly increases the prospects for success [97]. In this study, the authors adopt the Beijing school's method of employing a blend of qualitative techniques, such as literature reviews, expert interviews, and expert workshops, alongside bibliometric analysis [98]. ...
Additive Manufacturing (AM) demonstrates significant potential with rapid growth and widespread industrial adoption. To support the integration and innovation of AM technologies, the development of guidance tools and support methods are crucial, and a technological roadmap can assist in this effort. Despite its widespread use in production processes, the need for further research on the potential impact of AM remains significant. The full impact of AM is still uncertain and lacks consensus, highlighting the need for increased knowledge and investment from the scientific community and organizations. While the benefits of AM are recognized, the challenges of its adoption are not entirely known. AM will bring changes in the way organizations create, distribute, and derive value. Thus, in this article, a roadmap for AM is proposed and presented as a tool to map technological knowledge on the implementation and evolution of AM and serve as a strategic guide for organizations. The methodology for its elaboration involves three phases: planning and preparation, roadmap development, and review and update. Through a literature review, database and project consultation, and questionnaires to Portuguese companies that use AM in their production process it was possible to characterize the AM technology and through the visual format, based on a time horizon, summarize in a common framework all the information about the current and future state of AM in Portugal. The results of this study show that research and development initiatives are essential to promote the evolution of knowledge of the AM technology. Throughout this study and with the development of the roadmap it is anticipated that in the near future the AM will be widely used for prototyping and manufacturing of components and may be used for direct production in the short to medium term. It was also found that the main obstacles to the implementation of AM are the economic/productivity factors and the shortage of professionals with knowledge and skills in the area.
... It posits that a technology must displace existing businesses and replace them with an altogether different product. Disruptive technologies interrupt workforce participation and force technologically challenged individuals, to either exit the job market or to face a competitive workforce through knowledge and skill enhancement (Kostoff et al. 2004). Initially, a disruptive technology only satisfies a niche market, and it must be supported with robust R&D investment and knowledge creation to expand its customer base and displace the incumbents (Danneels 2004). ...
Domination of the tobacco industry’s innovative business models has forced many countries to develop defensive tobacco control strategies. Pakistan has been routinely adopting new legislation for this industry for the past several decades. However, constant tension exists between the legislative/policy development process and the transnational tobacco industry trying to outpace and evade new regulations. Expanding on the ‘Disruptive Industry Technological Model’ adopted by the transnational tobacco industry, this paper posits that the business model adopted during the previous century was radically disruptive, focusing on selling a product designed to kill almost half of its customers (WHO 2020). Subsequently, during the first two decades of the 21st Century, the tobacco industry adopted the ‘Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS)’ to displace its traditional cigarette sales. This paper deconstructs the adoption of such radically disruptive technological models by the tobacco industry and finds concord between both. It recommends the development of broad-spectrum proactive and preventive policies for Pakistan instead of reactive ones in the tobacco control regime.
... Digital technologies refer to combinations of information, computing, communication, and connectivity technologies or technologies that are new for the respective entity and cause strategic alignment of business processes. This includes technologies that are commonly referred to as disruptive technologies [19]. Despite the highly regulated nature of the health care sector [20], it has recently witnessed a growth in the adoption of novel technologies [21]. ...
Background:
Digital transformation is currently one of the most influential developments. It is fundamentally changing consumers' expectations and behaviors, challenging traditional firms, and disrupting numerous markets. Recent discussions in the health care sector tend to assess the influence of technological implications but neglect other factors needed for a holistic view on the digital transformation. This calls for a reevaluation of the current state of digital transformation in health care. Consequently, there is a need for a holistic view on the complex interdependencies of digital transformation in the health care sector.
Objective:
This study aimed to examine the effects of digital transformation on the health care sector. This is accomplished by providing a conceptual model of the health care sector under digital transformation.
Methods:
First, the most essential stakeholders in the health care sector were identified by a scoping review and grounded theory approach. Second, the effects on these stakeholders were assessed. PubMed, Web of Science, and Dimensions were searched for relevant studies. On the basis of an integrative review and grounded theory methodology, the relevant academic literature was systematized and quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed to evaluate the impact on the value creation of, and the relationships among, the stakeholders. Third, the findings were synthesized into a conceptual model of the health care sector under digital transformation.
Results:
A total of 2505 records were identified from the database search; of these, 140 (5.59%) were included and analyzed. The results revealed that providers of medical treatments, patients, governing institutions, and payers are the most essential stakeholders in the health care sector. As for the individual stakeholders, patients are experiencing a technology-enabled growth of influence in the sector. Providers are becoming increasingly dependent on intermediaries for essential parts of the value creation and patient interaction. Payers are expected to try to increase their influence on intermediaries to exploit the enormous amounts of data while seeing their business models be challenged by emerging technologies. Governing institutions regulating the health care sector are increasingly facing challenges from new entrants in the sector. Intermediaries increasingly interconnect all these stakeholders, which in turn drives new ways of value creation. These collaborative efforts have led to the establishment of a virtually integrated health care ecosystem.
Conclusions:
The conceptual model provides a novel and evidence-based perspective on the interrelations among actors in the health care sector, indicating that individual stakeholders need to recognize their role in the system. The model can be the basis of further evaluations of strategic actions of actors and their effects on other actors or the health care ecosystem itself.
... Disruptive technologies often begin as niche solutions or products with limited initial market appeal. Over time, they gain acceptance and transform the industry or market they are a part of (Kostoff et al., 2004). A prime example is the digital camera, which eliminated the need for film and traditional film processing. ...
... Exemplary research studies AI MacPherson, 1994; Kostoff et al., 2004;Radziwon et al., 2017;Hoornaert et al., ...
Artificial Intelligence (AI) induce corporates to re-design their innovation process. Due to rapid technological development, synchronization of information systems, and industrialization, corporate managers increasingly adopt AI in innovation. In response, scholars are interested in the idea of creating and mapping the intersection of AI in corporate innovation, which resulted in massive literature during the past decades. To critically analyze the phenomena of AI in corporate innovation, we conducted a hybrid review of published literature (364 articles)
for the last 56 years (1996 to July 2022). We present taxonomy, outline AI phases, AI large scope definition, and link with innovation. We identify eight focal fields in the intersection of AI in corporate innovation, such as AI and business models (BM), AI and product innovation, AI and open innovation, AI and innovation process, AI and firm's innovation structure, AI, firm's knowledge and innovation, and AI, innovation and firm market performance,
and AI and innovativeness of supply chain management. We outline a framework encompassing the role of AI in corporate innovation. We conclude this study by identifying influential aspects of literature and presenting future research agendas.
... Roadmapping for technological breakthrough (Kostoff et al., 2004) ...
... The ubiquity of face recognition technology (FRT) that identifies individuals in static images and videos by analyzing their faces has been a global source of controversy and tension (Hill 2020;Noorden 2020). FRT is a disruptive technology, innovation that significant alters the ways consumers, industries, businesses operate (Danneels 2004;Kostoff, Boylan, and Simons 2004). While facial recognition comes naturally to humans as a cognitive task, FRT automates the task in massive scale with high precision and fast speed. ...
Recent regulations introduced by the Chinese government regarding big data technologies are welcome to those long concerned about the risks associated with their rapid deployment. However, these changes are not sufficient to safeguard privacy and data security. More importantly, these policies may not have fully accounted for the disruptive nature of these technologies. In this paper, we examine the need and the potential of new approaches in policy design regarding disruptive technologies by examining the case of facial recognition technology (FRT) in China. We argue that adaptive governance provides a useful framework for future policy design. Regulatory sandbox approach, policy mix and stakeholder engagement are among key policy measures to overcome regulatory challenges. ARTICLE HISTORY
... Nevertheless, the theory's implication, that inferior entrants can displace incumbents, makes it important to forecast disruption, so forecasting DI has become a craft of its own (see, e.g., Govindarajan and Kopalle, 2006b;Klenner et al., 2013;Nagy et al., 2016). However, these forecasting attempts have not been satisfying (Govindarajan and Kopalle, 2006a;Kostoff et al., 2004;Markides, 2006;Sood and Tellis, 2011;Tellis, 2006). Kostoff et al. (2004, p. 142) even claim that DIs "only can be revealed as being disruptive in hindsight." ...
Since its inception over two decades ago, the theory of disruptive innovation has sparked heated discussions. Especially because of the increasing importance of societal influences and novel forms of competition and technology, questions about its theoretical value and practical relevance remain. Researchers have focused on firm-internal factors of disruptive innovations to resolve discussions about the validity of the theory. However, the literature lacks an integrated understanding of contextual factors, such as demand, market structure, culture, and regulation, that influence disruptive innovation because of its dispersed, fragmented character across disciplines. Our study addresses this fragmentation and lack of integrated understanding by systematically reviewing 62 articles. The study makes three main contributions. First, we integrate and synthesize the literature on contextual factors of disruptive innovations. Second, we derive a three-phase framework of contextual factors: (1) disruptive susceptibility, (2) emergence and diffusion, and (3) endgame and outcome. Third, we contribute to resolving discussions about the theory's core elements and its predictive value by showing how, depending on the societal, cultural, or market context, the implications of the theory can change. Overall, this article shows how disruptive innovation can start, and be started, by social change. We conclude by suggesting areas for future research.
... Fig. 1 shows a generic roadmap. Besides the traditional application of roadmaps, new areas to roadmapping such as new product development process [49], knowledge management [50], virtual innovation [51], disruptive technologies [52], [53] and business models [11] have been discovered, which shows the highly flexible and customizable potential of the roadmapping concept. ...
Digitalization is advancing fast, and companies need to innovate their business model at a more rapid pace to adapt to the accelerated changes in market conditions. This paper outlines an action research study where the business model innovation roadmap (BMI-R), with its three layers (1) digital technologies, (2) business model and (3) resources, is tested in a German SME. The company for the pilot case operates in the postal delivery sector. The firm had no structured approach for business model innovation, and even less within the context of digital transformation. The results from the action research study indicate that one of the most challenging part is to identify potential digital technologies for the business model. Moreover, resource allocation is recognized as a difficult task. The proposed BMI-R approach supported the company to start the BMI process. The BMI-R gives a high-level view of the BMI process, and helps to define an action plan during the digital transformation of the business model.
... Several scholars are continuing to work on developing additional tools to customize and operationalize the roadmapping process. For example, Kostoff et al. proposed a systematic approach to identify disruptive technologies by taking advantage of text-mining [39,45]. Passey et al. studied integration product concept visioning and scenario building with roadmaps [46], and Lizaro and Reger proposed connecting roadmapping and scenarios to plan the coordinated development and deployment of new and existing technologies and applications [47]. ...
This study demonstrates how to develop a roadmap guiding a company’s technology and innovation for future mobility by integrating the results from foresight and scenario analysis. The key drivers and trends influencing the urban development of Bangkok in the next 10 years were determined through the environmental scanning approach. The participatory approach was then applied to get stakeholders involved to enrich scenario thinking. The participants were invited from many social networks involved in city development in Bangkok. The scenario development was framed according to livability and city infrastructure development. As mobility is always the key issue for big cities, future development for mobility can be addressed in terms of different aspects such as filling stations, clean fuel, public transportation, shared mobility platforms, or last-mile traveling. A roadmap to guide future development of shared mobility was developed based on the analysis of the particular company in the case study.
... No processo, as empresas entrantes que apoiaram a tecnologia disruptiva substituem as empresas estabelecidas que apoiavam a tecnologia anterior. Uma tecnologia disruptiva, portanto, muda as bases da competição, alterando as métricas de desempenho ao longo das quais as empresas competem (Dannells, 2004;Kostoff et al., 2004) As tecnologias disruptivas, portanto, se caracterizam pelos seguintes aspectos: (1) uma nova tecnologia disruptiva desloca a dominante do mercado principal por apresentar uma performance inferior nas dimensões de desempenho que são mais importantes para os consumidores convencionais; (2) consumidores convencionais alteram suas compras para produtos baseados na nova tecnologia invasora, apesar dos produtos se mostrarem inferiores nas principais dimensões de desempenho; e (3) empresas estabelecidas que não reagem a tecnologias disruptivas em tempo hábil (Adner;2002). ...
DIGITAL E CAPACIDADES DINÂMICAS USANDO ANÁLISE DE REDES SOCIAIS RESUMO O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar e analisar a estrutura social e as redes relacionais no campo conceitual que vincula a inovação disruptiva digital às capacidades dinâmicas. As redes foram construídas a partir da coleta de 1.351 artigos científicos publicados no período entre 2010 a 2021 em periódicos indexados considerando as bases Web of Science (WoS) e Scopus com o apoio do software Gephi. Os resultados apontam que a Inglaterra, Estados Unidos, França, Itália e China se destacam, pois são mais proeminentes tanto em termos de quantidade como pela força dos laços estabelecidos. Uma particularidade que pode ser observada é que as parcerias mais importantes estão direcionadas para as tecnologias que envolvem a área de medicina e saúde, organizações sem fins lucrativos para combater a desigualdade em países emergentes e empresas de tecnologia. A principal conclusão é que esse é um campo emergente de estudo em que as relações apontadas tendem a se fortalecer e se estruturar o que aumenta a possibilidade para que estudos futuros sejam direcionados em diversas frentes. A disrupção digital (DD) pode ser conceituada como "os processos que se desdobram rapidamente por meio dos quais a inovação digital altera fundamentalmente lógicas historicamente sustentáveis para criação e captura de valor, separando e recombinando vínculos entre recursos ou gerando novos" (Skog et al., 2018, p. 432). Por meio das novas tecnologias digitais, a DD muda a experiência do cliente, os processos e os modelos de negócios, alterando assim como o valor é co-criado pelos atores em um ecossistema (Bolton et al ., 2019). Substitui, por consequência, produtos tradicionais por aparatos digitais criando novas oportunidades de mercado (Naimi-Sadigh et al., 2021). A DD é um tipo de turbulência ambiental que se origina no nível da empresa e tem o potencial de produzir desordens no nível nas estruturas das industriais estabelecidas (Skog et al., 2018) que quase sempre tropeçam nesse tipo de inovação (Christensen, 2000). Uma questão frequente na literatura aponta razões pelas quais incumbentes falham para detectar ou lidar com inovações disruptivas para tentar explicar esses desafios (Riemer & Johnston, 2019). Christensen (1997), por exemplo, avalia que elas devem investir nas capacidades existentes para adiar a interrupção. Frequentemente, os estudos examinam os recursos e as capacidades dos incumbentes (Karimi & Walter, 2015) em resposta à disrupção digital. Devido à complexidade e influência, nos últimos anos houve um forte impulso na pesquisa científica relativo a estes campos teóricos e pesquisadores têm conduzido uma ampla variedade de estudos (Skog et al., 2018). Esses esforços de pesquisa produziu uma quantidade crescente de informações que impõem desafios em relação à direção, ênfase e como os pesquisadores têm formado parcerias para conduzir estudos que vinculam as Capacidades Dinâmicas (CD) em resposta à Inovação Disruptiva Digital (IDD). Considerando esse contexto, este estudo levanta a seguinte questão: como está configurada a estrutura social que vincula a IDD às CD? Sendo assim, o objetivo principal é identificar e analisar a estrutura social e as redes relacionais no campo conceitual que vincula a IDD às CD, destacando as principais relações de parcerias desta comunidade científica (análise de coautoria de países e instituições). Para alcançar tal objetivo, este artigo apresenta uma
... Subscription-based business models can be seen as a new business model innovation [8], as a game changer or breakthrough which can reshape the traditional market models and drastically influence consumers' behavior, even to the extent of being seen as a potential disruptive innovation [9][10][11]. As verified in several literature reviews, customer perception of a new business model is a viable predictor of customer success [12][13][14]. ...
... Subscription-based business models can be seen as a new business model innovation [8], as a game changer or breakthrough which can reshape the traditional market models and drastically influence consumers' behavior, even to the extent of being seen as a potential disruptive innovation [9][10][11]. As verified in several literature reviews, customer perception of a new business model is a viable predictor of customer success [12][13][14]. ...
This study examined changes in consumer perceptions of product types and purchase intentions when a subscription model is introduced for products normally sold on a one-time basis. It then proposed product types likely to affect consumers’ purchasing intentions in the subscription economy and product categories best suited for the subscription economy. To this end, an experimental study was conducted with experts and general consumers using 99 subscription business cases. It was found that a regular delivery of products on a subscription basis gradually changes consumer perceptions of the products from utilitarian to hedonic and from search to experience ones. It was also found that consumption motivation is an important predictor of consumer purchase intentions in the subscription economy. In addition, experience-utilitarian and search-utilitarian products were associated with the highest purchase intentions among experts and general consumers, respectively. This suggests that a company’s strategy should be adjusted in line with consumers’ understanding of the subscription model. Therefore, suppliers need to understand the full implications of the new model, such as changed consumer perceptions and purchasing intentions, and strive to design a subscription model that is suitable for the target segments and product selections.
... In an article by Christensen [12], he defined disruptive technologies as sim-ple innovations mainly consisting of already existing technologies or components, these components are put together in a different and unique manner which is often easier than previous existing approaches which eventually causes changes in the "rules of the game". Adding to these definitions, Kostoff, Boylanb & Simonsc [13] said that disruptive technologies are products or services built using specific technologies that can be new or preexisting but configured in a way that is much cheaper, having better performance, and more convenient to the user or the industry. Moreover, disruptive technologies have a huge impact on the industries they penetrate, or they sometimes even create their own industry and start a trend. ...
The banking industry's automation is a critical step towards digital transformation. This transition will not only save time, but also ensure that the service is impeccable. Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is a software technology that makes it simple to build, deploy, and manage software robots that mimic human actions and execute repetitive and time consuming tasks. This thesis tackles the benefits and risks of RPA adoption in the banking sector. Moreover, a qualitative research was conducted in order to identify the major challenges and risks that Egyptian banks may face when adopting an RPA solution. Our findings suggests the existence of 3 major challenges that employees seem to face when implementing RPA.
... Jun used international patent classification numbers as the technical topic of literature in a key technology prediction study [14]. Kostoff et al. used word frequency analysis to identify the technical topic of disruptive technologies [15]. Zhang et al. predicted the future development trend of driverless cars based on the statistics and analysis of key technology patents such as automatic braking, cruise control, and lane keeping [16]. ...
As new energy vehicle (NEV) is the future of automobile development, it is of great significance to dig deeper into the technical topics and development trends of new energy vehicles for accurately understanding the technical trends of the new energy vehicle industry, grasping development opportunities, and scientifically formulating strategic plans. This paper takes the patent texts in the field of new energy vehicles from 2000 to 2020 in the patent database of CNKI as the data source, identifies 25 technical topics implied in the patent texts by using the LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) topic model, analyzes the evolution trend of the 25 technical topics in terms of importance and popularity, and predicts the popularity and development trend of each technical topic in new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2025 by constructing the ARIMA model. The popularity and development trend of each technology topic of new energy vehicles in China from 2021 to 2025 are predicted by constructing ARIMA model. Drawing on quantitative evidence, the study found that there are top five technical topics in terms of importance in this field, namely, Topic 8 (Installation and Fixation), Topic 5 (Heat Dissipation), Topic 14 (Vehicle Data Monitoring), Topic 9 (Charging Pile), and Topic 15 (Damping). From 2014 to 2020, the importances of Topic 5 (Heat Dissipation), Topic 8 (Installation and Fixation), Topic 6 (Electric Drive System), Topic 9 (Charging Pile), and Topic 15 (Damping) are gradually rising. In terms of popularity of technical topics, from 2014 to 2020, the first to fifth topics are Topic 20 (Safety), Topic 8 (Installation and Fixation), Topic 3 (Cable Insulation Materials), Topic 15 (Damping), and Topic 10 (Pump Cooling). Based on the prediction of ARIMA model, it is found that the popularity of these five technical topics is steadily increasing from 2021 to 2025, among which the popularity of Topic 20 (Safety) will increase from 63.58 to 113.07, the largest increase in popularity among all technical topics. The paper provides implications for countries dedicated to developing the new energy vehicle industry.
... These new subscription-based catalogues can be interpreted as BMI (Corrocher and Zirulia, 2010). These new plans can change the usual market rules and influence consumers' behavior so they can be seen as a potential disruptive innovation (Christensen and Overdorf, 2000;Christensen et al., 2015;Garcia and Calantone, 2002;Kostoff et al., 2004;Markides, 2006). ...
Leveraging the Behavioral Reasoning Theory, in this paper we study the consumer’s perception of the new subscription-based business models designed to give users access to a catalogue of smartphone apps. Specifically, we employ a PLS-SEM approach to study the data gathered on a sample of 294 mobile apps users in Italy. In particular, we have found that Global Motives are the main predictor of the consumers’ behavioral intention and that context specific reasons, albeit differently, provide the linkages between the consumer values and the global motives without a direct effect on behavioral intention, partially confirming Westaby’s theory.
... As already indicated in the introductory section, the implementation of public services taking advantage of disruptive technologies is one of the core characteristics of Government 3.0. Disruptive technologies can be defined as technologies, whose application has potential to drastically alter the processes and operations in a particular domain (Kostoff et al., 2004). As evident from this definition, the disruptive potential of technologies is relative and depends on the specific domain of application: some technologies might be defined as disruptive in certain areas, while offering only incremental improvement in others. ...
The broad diffusion of so-called disruptive technologies in the public sector is expected to heavily impact and give a strong digital boost to public service provisioning. To ensure acceptance and sustainability, the benefits and challenges of using disruptive technologies in public service provisioning need to be well researched. This chapter applies scenario-based science and technology roadmapping to outline potential future uses of disruptive technologies. It develops a roadmap of research for Government 3.0. Based on a literature review of disruptive technologies in Government 3.0, thirteen scenariosScenarios sketch possible use of internet of things, artificial intelligence, machine learning, virtual and augmented reality, big data and other disruptive technologies in public service provisioning. Subsequently, gap analysis is applied to derive a roadmap of research, which outlines nineteen research actions to boost innovation in public serviceInnovation in public service with the use of disruptive technologies, thereby building on engagement of and interaction with expert stakeholders from different fields. We conclude with recommendations for a broader and more informed discussion about how such new (disruptive) technologies can be successfully deployed in the public sector—leveraging the expected benefits of these technologies while at the same time mitigating the drawbacks affiliated with them.
... Nevertheless, the notion of 'competence-destroying' or 'competence-enhancing' effects of innovations has been stressed, for example, by Cooper (2000), R. Henderson (1993), Kostoff, Boylan & Simons (2004) and Lettl, Herstatt & Gemuenden (2006). ...
Innovation studies use labels such as radical or disruptive to qualify innovation according
to different concepts. Within the literature, these labels are frequently used interchangeably due to overlaps in their characteristics. These various definitions present challenges when the labels are operationalized in empirical studies. Based on a quantitative analysis of the most common innovation labels’ definitions in 532 scientific papers, we find that novelty and impact, predominantly used for empirical operationalization, differentiate only between ordinary and more exceptional innovations. Based on our findings, a differentiation between the impact’s target and the consideration of positive versus negative effects enables better distinction between labels for more ‘exceptional’ innovations. We extend the existing literature and enable a more precise
definition of (single) innovations by providing a novel, more nuanced description of innovations’ different characteristics and a further distinction of their effects. Thereby, the relevant decisive aspects will be communicated more accurately.
... Neben der traditionellen Anwendung von Roadmaps gibt es neuartige Bereiche für das Roadmapping, z. B. neue Produktentwicklungsprozesse (Petrick & Echols, 2004), Wissensmanagement (Brown & O'Hare, 2001), virtuelle Innovation (Rinne, 2004), disruptive Technologien (Kostoff et al., 2004;Walsh, 2004) und Geschäftsmodelle (De Reuver et al., 2013;Schaller et al., 2018), wodurch das flexible und anpassbare Potenzial des Roadmapping-Konzepts gezeigt werden kann. Obwohl Roadmaps für eine Vielzahl von Zwecken mit unterschiedlichen Formen verwendet werden (Phaal et al., 2004), wird mit diesen in der Regel das Ziel verfolgt, eine übergreifende, synthetisierte und integrierte Sicht auf strategische Entscheidungen in einer einfachen bildlichen Darstellung zu erfassen (Phaal et al. 2007). ...
Durch den Austausch von Daten aus verschiedenen Objekten ermöglicht das Internet der Dinge (Internet of Things/IoT) neue Formen der Zusammenarbeit zwischen Unternehmen aus verschiedenen Bereichen. Diese Kooperationen von Unternehmen werden als IoT-Ökosysteme (Wertschöpfungsnetzwerke) bezeichnet. Durch die Wechselbeziehungen zwischen den Partnern innerhalb des IoT-Ökosystems können diese Unternehmen zusätzliche Geschäftspotenziale realisieren. In unserem Artikel identifizieren wir Geschäftspotenziale und Ökosystemanforderungen basierend auf den Wechselbeziehungen zwischen den Partnern in einem IoT-Ökosystem. Grundlage unseres Beitrags ist eine Fallstudie mit verschiedenen Unternehmen, welche unter realen Bedingungen durchgeführte wurde. Im Rahmen der Fallstudie wurde ein neues Wertschöpfungssystem geschaffen, das auf Basis je gefertigtem Gutteil vergütet wird (Pay-per-Part) und der bisherige Produzent nicht mehr Eigentümer des realen Objekts ist.
Technology foresight report looking at different foresight methods that can be useful for public funding of innovation, with the following chapters and co-authors:
1. Per Dannemand Andersen - "Potential uses of the Delphi method in innovation funding institutions";
2. Marco Bevolo - "Individual intuition and communicative charisma as enablers of futures envisioning: ‘genius forecasting’ vs ‘forecasting geniuses’";
3. Imoh Ilevbare - "Roadmapping for strategy, foresight and policy";
4. Eirini Malliaraki - "The role of large language models in science and technology policy";
5. Rafael Popper - "The role of horizon scanning in anticipating and monitoring emerging technologies";
6. Matthew Spaniol - "Using scenarios to assess innovations".
Technology roadmapping is an effective strategic management method. However, in making and implementing science and technology innovation policies in reality, there is a problem of relying solely on experts’ prior knowledge and lack posterior knowledge in objective data. The problem may cause subjective bias, which disconnects technology foresight, national strategic planning, and action plan. Researchers try to analyze and visualize technical information to support expert discussions, to realize the benefits of combining of data analysis and expert knowledge. However, there is still a problem that data analysis and experts are independent of each other, and it is difficult to effectively support experts. Knowledge graphs provide a way to efficiently manage and utilize massive amounts of information. They display structured technical information graphically, helping experts locate and acquire knowledge accurately. A process to support expert interaction via technology roadmapping, guided by the technical knowledge graph is proposed in this chapter. This process guides the effective interaction between experts and data through the technical knowledge graph, which can improve the quality of data analysis and enhance the foresight ability of experts. The process of multiple interactions helps to better connect expert knowledge and the objective principles and laws of technological development, and enhances the scientific basis and accuracy of technology roadmapping. This research takes the intelligent machine tool industrial sector as a case study through expert discussion to verify the effectiveness of the technology roadmapping developing process. This approach provides important support for national-level technology roadmapping development. Using the technology knowledge graph to guide interaction between experts and data analysis results periodically throughout the process reduces subjective bias and information loss in technology foresight. The process effectively connects expert knowledge with objective principles and laws of technology development by means of interaction, and powerfully supports national strategic planning and policy implementation via technology roadmapping.
The availability of energy resources greatly impacts achieving energy security and a steady economic growth rate. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are highly dependent on fossil fuels for energy generation. Hence, there is a need to divert focus to renewable energy resources such as biogas production. SSA has experienced very slow growth in the production of biogas, despite having access to land and feedstock. This paper outlines the guidelines and strategy for implementing sustainable biogas technology. Key barriers and business drivers were identified, and the outcome gives insights regarding the factors that are similar to those identified in other studies from developing nations with comparable socioeconomic status. Three major techniques for technology roadmap analysis were used, which include SWOT and P5F analysis, and these are discussed in the context of bringing biogas technology to the SSA market. The proposed technology roadmap for biogas production technology was developed while taking into consideration four components, which are business drivers, product features, technology features, and resources. It can be concluded that an appropriate focus on issues pertaining to policy and financial framework is vital for efficient biogas technology implementation. Recommendations were made for advancing biogas technology in SSA to maintain a competitive advantage.
Accessibility to technologies in start-up ecosystems is not a negligible aspect. The issues of digital transformation and new technologies are treated as a lever for the main objectives of start-ups, such as scalability and replicability. A focus on the development and use of artificial intelligence in the context of start-up ecosystems is addressed in detail.
Disruptive technology is an innovation that initially performs poorly in mainstream markets, but eventually disrupts and replaces existing product. The concept of disruptive technology has been studied at both micro and macro levels. The identification of disruptive technology includes the approaches based on subjective data and objective data. Understanding the nature and dynamics of disruptive technology is important for businesses and policymakers as it can have significant impacts on industries and society as a whole. In this paper, 259,706 nanotechnology papers from 1999 to 2015, are collected to identify disruptive technology in nano field. 53 highly cited paper with more than 1000 citations are analysed, using Disruption index. Study results show that Phosphorene and Polymer solar cells are the top high disruptive technology. In terms of team sizes, disruptive technology in highly cited papers are small teams.KeywordsDisruptive technologyidentification mechanismnano science
An industry technology roadmap (hereafter ITRM) is a strategic planning tool to predict the technologies and innovations demanded by the future market, allowing the industry to leverage capital and other investments in a range of alternative technologies and achieve sustainable development. To date, ITRM has been adopted by various global organizations in different industries; however, the majority of research has focused on roadmapping techniques only. Although success factors have been mentioned in some of the literature, little work has been conducted to assess the success of any ITRM. This research, therefore, developed an assessment model, including a theoretical and knowledge framework, assessment methods, and quantitative indices, to systematically assess the contents of an ITRM. We then used it to assess four global textile ITRMs. The assessment results led us to recommend five success factors of an effective ITRM: (1) methodological industry technology roadmapping; (2) a multi-organizational background; (3) systematic presentation of ITRM contents; (4) balanced contents for market and technology forces; and (5) appropriate databases. Compared with the success factors proposed in the previous literature, these five success factors are more practical for roadmap content construction.
Developments in the railway industry are continuously evolving and long-term transition strategies can enable an efficient implementation of signalling technologies that provide a significant increase in network capacity and operation efficiency. Virtual Coupling (VC) advances moving block signalling by further reducing train separation to less than an absolute braking distance using train-to-train communication and cooperative train control within a Virtually-Coupled Train Set (VCTS). This paper proposes a method to develop scenario-based roadmaps based on a SWOT and hybrid Delphi-AHP multi-criteria analysis. Step-changes are identified and initially assessed in a Swimlane based on priorities and time order collected from stakeholders through a survey and further developed in a workshop. Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are assessed regarding various factors and timelines. Step-changes are initially defined in a Swimlane and then enriched with optimistic and pessimistic scenarios to ultimately derive scenario-based roadmaps. Durations for each of the step-changes are developed into scenario-based roadmaps that can be used as an efficient tool for stakeholders to identify and solve potential criticalities/risks to the deployment of VC as well as to setup investment and development plans. The approach is applied to deliver implementation roadmaps of VC for different market segments with particular focus on mainline railways.
The virtual world was made possible by big changes in computer hardware, graphics software, and computer software. Considering the function of a metaverse, which is a 3D virtual world with computing infrastructure that is available to everyone. By making products and services that are much better, more affordable, and easier to use, disruptive technologies can grow the industries they are already in or start whole new ones. Disruptive technology offers a big change in how things are done or processes are run. The metaverse uses a number of useful technologies to give users 3D experiences that are both immersive and unique. Marketing, education, travel, and healthcare are among the industries that the metaverse might have an impact on. This chapter discusses how these technologies could be used in digital medicine and the future of the medical metaverse. The authors also talk about the research that is being done to speed up the metaverse's adoption in global education and make it a better place to learn and teach.
In diesem Beitrag wird die Geschäftsmodellinnovations-Roadmap vorgestellt – ein neuer Ansatz für den Innovationsprozess von Geschäftsmodellen, der auf dem Roadmapping-Konzept basiert. Die Geschäftsmodellinnovations-Roadmap dient Unternehmen als Unterstützung dafür, digitale Technologien in ihr Geschäftsmodell zu integrieren und dabei die richtigen Ressourcen im Zeitablauf für die Umsetzung zuzuweisen. Als Methodik zur Entwicklung des Ansatzes wurde eine Kombination aus einer Delphi-Befragung und einer Aktionsforschungs-Komponentenstrategie angewandt. Die Fallstudie zur Aktionsforschung wurde in einem mittelständischen deutschen Unternehmen im Postdienstleistungsbereich durchgeführt. Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden die spezifischen Merkmale und Besonderheiten der Geschäftsmodellinnovations-Roadmap aufgezeigt. Die Experten sind sich einig, dass die vollständige Digitalisierung ausgewählter Geschäftsmodellkomponenten zu empfehlen ist, was mit der Geschäftsmodellinnovations-Roadmap dargestellt werden kann. Weiterhin geht aus den Ergebnissen hervor, dass die Integration von digitalen Technologien in ein Geschäftsmodell von einem strukturierten und übersichtlichen Ansatz profitiert. Der im Beitrag dargestellte, praxiserprobte Ansatz zur Geschäftsmodell-Innovation bietet Unterstützung bei der Entwicklung und der strategischen Verankerung von Digitalisierungspotenzialen im Geschäftsmodell.
As more and more people are moving to bigger cities, housing is becoming less and less available and cities are becoming more congested due to the high number of people and their cars. This leads to increased traffic, congestion, air pollution and degradation of quality of life. One approach to deal with this problem is to operate autonomously driving buses through artificial intelligence and internet of things. This paper compares four projects with autonomous driving buses. The aim is to find out, what added value such projects bring to smart cities. Findings indicate that well-implemented autonomous buses can reduce air and noise pollution, reduce congestion, and improve safety. In the paper, we identify enablers and challenges for autonomous driving from the four cases. While artificial intelligence and internet of things pose the biggest challenges in terms of scalability and interoperability, these disruptive technologies are also the biggest enablers, as these make the deployment of autonomous driving buses possible in the first place. The new data from the internet of things open up new possibilities for planning and operating autonomous busses.KeywordsSmart citySmart mobilityAutonomous busArtificial intelligenceInternet of things
We examine the role of technology in the conduct of international business. After providing theoretical background, we examine the most important technologies and technological trends in the current decade, including big data, blockchain, 5G, the internet of things, artificial intelligence, robotics, additive manufacturing, and digital platforms. We discuss the implications of such trends for organizational activities and operations around the world. Emergent technologies are improving coordination and knowledge-sharing across network partners, as well as enhancing performance and reducing costs in manufacturing, distribution, logistics, and general value chain activities of MNEs. Such technologies are shifting the pattern of global manufacturing. Current technological trends hold implications for traditional views on the global production ecosystem.
The digitalization of law has become a mantra. Law firms across the globe have begun to invest in legal-tech solutions to maintain a competitive edge in an increasingly changing market of legal services providers. While for many this foresees a disruption in the dynamics of the legal field, law firms have proved relatively resilient to radical change. With few exceptions, law firms continue to practice law as usual, while adding a few innovative tools to their old work dynamics to increase efficiency and revenue. This paper takes stock of the state of the art of the digitalization of law firms in Denmark and Italy, two Continental European countries often understudied in terms of the sociology of the legal profession. After presenting the scholarship on new technologies and law firms, as well as the specificities of the Danish and Italian legal fields, by relying on qualitative interviews with key players of the legal-tech and law firm environment in both countries, the paper shows that both Danish and Italian law firms are reluctant to embrace technological change. The paper also identifies two factors that contribute to explain such reluctance on the part of law firms to fully digitalize their practices: 1) partnerships as the main organizational form of law firms, and 2) the inherent tension between the market-oriented, capitalistic nature of digital technologies and the professional nature of legal practice. The paper concludes by exploring the few Danish and Italian actors that are taking digital developments more seriously, showing that these are chiefly recently established legal-tech start-ups and medium-sized boutique law firms.
Technology and innovation management is vital emerging research fields. Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TFSC) has worked as a major forum in this field and is currently regarded as the leading journal. However, an increasing number of publications hamper a comprehensive understanding of the field and journal. In this study, we conducted a systematic review of TFSC with the support of bibliometric analysis. We used citation network analysis and topic models to extract research landscapes and trends. Our results illustrate how technology and innovation management research has developed through the interactions among theories, methods, and cases, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Based on our analysis and findings, we discuss the major branches of research, topics in the journal, and future perspectives.
Purpose
Recently, disruptive technologies (DTs) have proposed several innovative applications in managing logistics and promise to transform the entire logistics sector drastically. Often, this transformation is not successful due to the existence of adoption barriers to DTs. This study aims to identify the significant barriers that impede the successful adoption of DTs in the logistics sector and examine the interrelationships amongst them.
Design/methodology/approach
Initially, 12 critical barriers were identified through an extensive literature review on disruptive logistics management, and the barriers were screened to ten relevant barriers with the help of Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM). Further, an Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) approach was built with the inputs from logistics experts working in the various departments of warehouses, inventory control, transportation, freight management and customer service management. ISM approach was then used to generate and examine the interrelationships amongst the critical barriers. Matrics d’Impacts Croises-Multiplication Applique a Classement (MICMAC) analysed the barriers based on the barriers' driving and dependence power.
Findings
Results from the ISM-based technique reveal that the lack of top management support (B6) was a critical barrier that can influence the adoption of DTs. Other significant barriers, such as legal and regulatory frameworks (B1), infrastructure (B3) and resistance to change (B2), were identified as the driving barriers, and industries need to pay more attention to them for the successful adoption of DTs in logistics. The MICMAC analysis shows that the legal and regulatory framework and lack of top management support have the highest driving powers. In contrast, lack of trust, reliability and privacy/security emerge as barriers with high dependence powers.
Research limitations/implications
The authors' study has several implications in the light of DT substitution. First, this study successfully analyses the seven DTs using Adner and Kapoor's framework (2016a, b) and the Theory of Disruptive Innovation (Christensen, 1997; Christensen et al. , 2011) based on the two parameters as follows: emergence challenge of new technology and extension opportunity of old technology. Second, this study categorises these seven DTs into four quadrants from the framework. Third, this study proposes the recommended paths that DTs might want to follow to be adopted quickly.
Practical implications
The authors' study has several managerial implications in light of the adoption of DTs. First, the authors' study identified no autonomous barriers to adopting DTs. Second, other barriers belonging to any lower level of the ISM model can influence the dependent barriers. Third, the linkage barriers are unstable, and any preventive action involving linkage barriers would subsequently affect linkage barriers and other barriers. Fourth, the independent barriers have high influencing powers over other barriers.
Originality/value
The contributions of this study are four-fold. First, the study identifies the different DTs in the logistics sector. Second, the study applies the theory of disruptive innovations and the ecosystems framework to rationalise the choice of these seven DTs. Third, the study identifies and critically assesses the barriers to the successful adoption of these DTs through a strategic evaluation procedure with the help of a framework built with inputs from logistics experts. Fourth, the study recognises DTs adoption barriers in logistics management and provides a foundation for future research to eliminate those barriers.
У статті представлені методи і інструменти візуального уявлення перспективних науково-технологічних напрямів розвитку озброєння та військової техніки шляхом побудови дорожніх карт, які можна використовувати при формуванні перспективних науково-технологічних напрямів щодо розвитку оборонно-промислового комплексу (ОПК), а також при довгостроковому прогнозуванні та стратегічному плануванні щодо створення науково-технічного заділу для удосконалення і розвитку озброєння, військової і спеціальної техніки. Наведені приклади і показані переваги дорожнього картування для управління науково-технологічним розвитком ОПК.
Disruptive technology has profoundly affected the market environment and business patterns. Traditional and emerging industries are willing to adopt it to nurture their innovation activities and achieve competitive advantage. However, traditional technological innovation theory cannot give accurate guidance because of the peculiarities of disruptive technology. Thus, in this study, we explore the diffusion mechanism of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technological innovation from the perspective of disruptive innovation. We implement maximum likelihood fitting methods and the goodness-of-fit test to analyse the network’s degree distribution characteristics through evolution. Results illustrate that the connection mechanism changes through the evolution process. In particular periods, preferential attachment does not work. Dominant technologies will lose their position with the emergence of disruptive technologies, hence replaced by them. The findings will provide practical suggestions to firms in facilitating their strategic decision-making when faced with disruptive technologies.
Disruptive innovation has become a core topic for technology management and indeed a central aspect of the modern industrial revolution. Although considerable attention has been devoted to its emergent properties and selection outcomes, less focus has been given to understand how disruption emerges through evolving and complex interactions that occur during that process. To address this shortfall, this article draws on chaos theory to examine the nature of disruptive innovation as a nonlinear dynamic system. Disruptive innovation can be considered nonlinear because it is time-dependent and deviation-absorbing, and it revolves around identifiable types of attractors appearing in a deterministic context or trajectory. To illustrate and advance these ideas, we study inkjet printer and digital photography technologies using patent application data collected from the United States Patent and Trademark Office. We employ a nonlinear analysis of the correlation dimension to measure the unpredictability of disruptive change and found that both chosen technologies evolved through a nonlinear dynamic process. Furthermore, in light of chaos theory and by way of comparison, we indicated two types of disruption: high-dimensional and low-dimensional chaos. Implications for innovation theory and business practice are explored herein.
O roadmapping surgiu em negócios de base tecnológica com a proposta de fomentar o alinhamento entre os objetivos estratégicos do negócio e o desenvolvimento de novos produtos e tecnologias. Juntamente a este processo de roadmapping, técnicas computacionais e ferramentas gerenciais vêm sendo empregadas como suporte ao processo. Este trabalho tem por objetivo realizar uma análise bibliométrica com o foco justamente nestes itens de apoio ao processo de roadmapping. Neste sentido, redes de co-ocorrência de palavras-chaves e de referências foram empregadas na amostra de 129 artigos. Os resultados obtidos indicam que ferramentas de gestão e de auxílio à tomada de decisão, bem como técnicas de mineração de textos são os itens mais relevantes associados ao processo de roadmapping.
p> A recent book by Clayton M. Christensen, Associate Professor of Business at Harvard University, discusses the sometimes devastating impact in the corporate environment of what he refers to as "disruptive technologies." Successful, well-managed firms that dominate their markets have sometimes gone into a sharp decline or even collapsed when a new technology disrupts the pattern of their market segment. Other firms, however, have handled such transitions smoothly, maintaining their position of dominance in the market by employing specific techniques to integrate the new and disruptive technology into their operations.
Traditional research universities enjoy a dominant position in the higher education "market," but they are beginning to feel the impact of disruptive technologies such as distance education. They may benefit not only from an examination of the insights that Christensen has derived from his study of the impact of disruptive technologies in the corporate environment but also from a selective application of the techniques for coping with disruptive technologies that Christensen has found to be effective in the business world. Some of these techniques imply an important role for continuing education units as semi-autonomous incubators of disruptive innovation. </p
This paper focuses on patterns of technological change and on the impact of technological breakthroughs on environmental conditions. Using data from the minicomputer, cement, and airline industries from their births through 1980, we demonstrate that technology evolves through periods of incremental change punctuated by technological break-throughs that either enhance or destroy the competence of firms in an industry. These breakthroughs, or technological discontinuities, significantly increase both environmental uncertainty and munificence. The study shows that while competence-destroying discontinuities are initiated by new firms and are associated with increased environmental turbulence, competence-enhancing discontinuities are initiated by existing firms and are associated with decreased environmental turbulence. These effects decrease over successive discontinuities. Those firms that initiate major technological changes grow more rapidly than other firms.
The nature of disruptive and sustaining technologies is sufficiently different to require different activities for the commercialization of these technology categories. Few theorists have developed conceptual schemes about the different methods of commercializing these technologies. The authors take the first steps in investigating these differences by contrasting firms that commercialize disruptive technologies with those that commercialize sustaining technologies. They reveal major differences and analyze these in terms of four major commercialization components: product realization, revenue generation, research support, and market potential. Several hypotheses regarding size of the firm, its financial risk profile, and its R&D strategy are utilized.
Latent semantic indexing (LSI) is a statistical technique for improving information retrieval effectiveness. Here, we use LSI to assist in literature-based discoveries. The idea behind literature-based discoveries is that different authors have already published certain underlying scientific ideas that, when taken together, can be connected to hypothesize a new discovery, and that these connections can be made by exploring the scientific literature. We explore latent semantic indexing's effectiveness on two discovery processes: uncovering "nearby" relationships that are necessary to initiate the literature based discovery process; and discovering more distant relationships that may genuinely generate new discovery hypotheses.
This article examines product innovation as an organizational learning process. It provides a framework allowing managers and scholars to relate product-innovation learning skills to organizational goals. Daryl McKee shows how different types of organizational learning skills are involved in incremental innovation, discontinuous innovation and institutionalization of innovation within the organization. This conceptualization can help scholars and managers diagnose an organization's learning skills and how they relate to new product management; direct the organization toward learning more efficient and effective product innovation; and provide scholars with a structure for future research.
Although many new-products professionals may harbor hopes of developing "the next big thing" in their respective industries, most product development efforts focus on incremental innovations. Accordingly, most research on the new-product development (NPD) process focuses on the development of evolutionary products. For new-products professionals seeking insights into the means for achieving breakthrough innovations, a fundamental question remains unanswered: Does the NPD process for discontinuous products differ from the process for incremental, or continuous, products? To provide a better understanding of managerial practices associated with discontinuous innovation, Robert Veryzer presents findings from an in-depth study of eight discontinuous product development projects. The study explores the key factors that affect the discontinuous NPD process, as well as the methods that the firms in this study use for assessing the radically new products they have in development. From the findings in this study, he develops a descriptive model of the discontinuous product development process, and he offers insights into the requirements for effective management of discontinuous innovation projects. Although half the firms in the study use a formal process for evaluating radically innovative products, the participants in the study generally do not employ a formal, highly structured process for managing discontinuous NPD efforts. However; these firms do follow a consistent, logical process in the development of radical innovations, and their process differs significantly from incremental NPD processes. The processes used by the firms in this study are more exploratory and less customer driven than the typical, incremental NPD process. The impetus for all the projects in this study comes from the convergence of developing technologies, various contextual or environmental factors (for example, government regulations), and a product champion or visionary. Starting from these drivers, the discontinuous NPD process focuses on formulating a product application for the emerging technologies. In all cases, these firms developed prototypes at nit earlier stage than the typical, incremental NPD process. To aid in the formulation of a new product application from emerging technologies, prototype construction in these discontinuous NPD projects precedes opportunity analysis, assessment of market attractiveness, market research, and financial analysis. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.
We report experiments that use lexical statistics, such as word frequency counts, to discover hidden connections in the medical literature. Hidden connections are those that are unlikely to be found by examination of bibliographic citations or the use of standard indexing methods and yet establish a relationship between topics that might profitably be explored by scientific research. Our experiments were conducted with the MEDLINE medical literature database and follow and extend the work of Swanson.
A key reason national economies rise and fall these days is their ability to nurture "disruptive technologies"--innovations that lead to new classes of products that are cheaper, better, and more convenient than their predecessors. America's ability to exploit disruption has led to its recent boom, while Japan's failure to do so has led to stagnation. Other countries should heed the lesson.
This paper develops a framework for analyzing the competitive implications of innovation. The framework is based on the concept of transilience - the capacity of an innovation to influence the established systems of production and marketing. Application of the concept results in a categorization of innovation into four types. Examples from the technical history of the US auto industry are used to illustrate the concepts and their applicability. The analysis shows that the categories of innovation are closely linked to different patterns of evolution and to different managerial environments. Special emphasis is placed on the role of incremental technical change in shaping competition and on the possibilities for a technology based reversal in the process of industrial maturity.
Don R. Swanson has undertaken a program of research to use the published medical literature as a source of discoveries. We have attempted to replicate his discovery of a connection between Raynaud's disease and dietary fish oil, as well as develop computer-based searching methods that could usefully support literature-based discoveries. We have been successful in replicating Swanson's discovery and have developed a method of discovery support based on the complete text of MEDLINE records. From these, we compute statistics based both on the frequency of tokens within a literature and on the number of records containing various tokens. We discuss the use of these statistics, suggesting that token and record frequencies are good indicators of literatures profitably related to some source literature, and that relative record frequencies are useful in isolating literatures with the potential of containing a discovery.
A three-dimensional model presented shows that the team or dyad approach appears to be the most successful way for marketing and R & D to work together.
A model of infrastructure development for emergent industries based on discontinuous innovations is offered. This model was developed in response to the lack of infrastructure needed for an industry to thrive. Such a model is needed, since Japan, Europe, and the U.S. have attempted with various degrees of success to nurture strategic industries through various policies, including the support of absent but needed infrastructure. The emergent industry based on micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) technologies is used to demonstrate how an infrastructure gradually grows to support a new industry, resulting from discontinuous innovation. The model indicates the evolving nature of the actions and investments that firms and governments need to make to support the growth of an immature industry. In this article, we offer a descriptive model as well as guidance—to firms on whether their intentions and resources fit with the state of the industry, and to policy makers on the timing of different types of support.
Database tomography is an information extraction and analysis system which operates on textual databases. Its primary use to date has been to identify pervasive technical thrusts and themes, and the interrelationships among these themes and sub-themes, which are intrinsic to large textual databases. Its two main algorithmic components are multiword phrase frequency analysis and phrase proximity analysis. This paper shows how database tomography can be used to enhance information retrieval from large textual databases through the newly developed process of simulated nucleation. The principles of simulated nucleation are presented, and the advantages for information retrieval are delineated. An application is described of developing, from Science Citation Index and Engineering Compendex, a database of journal articles focused on near-Earth space science and technology.
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This paper describes the Graphical Modeling System, a computer-based process for generating roadmaps. The system offers the
following advantages and capabilities: (1) Graphically portraying relationships between research and potential applications;
(2) Helping accelerate science conversion by promoting champion interest in further research development; (3) Showing the
node-link relationships of a project/capabilities/requirements network; (4) Treating nodes (projects/capabilities/requirements)
as multi-valued (multi-attributed) quantities which are allowed to exist in many different research-requirement pathways simultaneously.
This multiple perspectives capability provides a more accurate depiction of the multi-application nature of most research
and technology, and the software enables the user to highlight just those specific node-link subnetworks of interest (the
desired researchrequirement. pathways) without being overwhelmed by all possible node-links which constitute the larger network;
(5) Promoting communications; (6) Identifying science and technology gaps; and (7) Identifying obstacles to rapid and low-cost
technology development.
The disappointing performance of U.S. firms during the 1980s in technology-intensive, global markets (such as consumer electronics, office and factory automation, and semiconductor memories) has been widely attributed to a failure to continuously and incrementally improve products and processes. In "The Breakthrough Illusion", Florida and Kenney wrote that "The United States makes the breakthroughs, while other countries, especially Japan, provide the follow-through" on which competitive advantage is built. Gomory made a similar point. contrasting "revolutionary" innovations with "another, wholly different, less dramatic, and rather grueling process of innovation, which is far more critical to commercializing technology profitably...Its hallmark is incremental improvement, not breakthrough. It requires turning products over again and again, getting the new model out, starting work on an even newer one. This may all sound dull, but the achievements are exhilarating." In "The Machine that Changed the World", the most influential work on the subject of the 1980s, Womack, Jones, and Roos measured the competitive effects of this lack of attention to continuous incremental improvement throiugh a benchmarking study of the global automobile industry. Other studies reinforce this message: compared to their Japanese competitors, U.S. firms lagged in cost, quality, and speed; and in large measure, the problem stemmed from a relative........
Information Retrieval (IR) is the discipline that deals with retrieval of unstructured data, especially textual documents, in response to a query or topic statement, which may itself be unstructured, e.g., a sentence or even another document, or which may be structured, e.g., a boolean expression. The need for effective methods of auto- mated IR has grown in importance because of the tremendous explosion in the amount of unstructured data, both internal, corporate document collections, and the immense and growing number of document sources on the Internet. This report is a tutorial and survey of the state of the art, both research and commercial, in this dynamic field. The topics covered include: formulation of structured and unstruc- tured queries and topic statements, indexing (including term weighting) of docu- ment collections, methods for computing the similarity of queries and documents, classification and routing of documents in an incoming stream to users on the basis of topic or need statements, clustering of document collections on the basis of lan- guage or topic, and statistical, probabilistic, and semantic methods of analyzing and retrieving documents.
Global Technology Watch is the assemblage of methodologies, both human-based and computer-based, required to understand the status of science and technology (S&T) globally. Since one important dissemination avenue for S&T is its literature, analysis of technical documentation is an important component of Technology Watch. This paper examines the role and utilization of the technical literature in S&T development and exploitation. Ready access to the results of all global research performed is required to accomplish the following: (1) track research impacts to help identify benefits arising from sponsored research; (2) evaluate science and technology programs; (3) avoid research duplication; (4) identify promising research directions and opportunities; (5) perform myriad oversight tasks; and, in general, (6) support every step of a strategic research planning, selection, management, and evaluation process that makes optimal use of S&T investment resources. In addition, recent counter-terrorism concerns have highlighted the need for ready access to, and analysis of, databases that could link people with institutions and activities. In the S&T arena, this requires linking research performers with organizations, countries, and technical areas. (46 refs.)
When coupled with expert human analysts, text mining can extract useful information from technical material.
Global Technology Watch is the assemblage of methodologies, both human-based and computer-based, required to understand the status of science and technology (S&T) globally. Since one important dissemination avenue for S&T is its literature, analysis of technical documentation is an important component of Technology Watch.
Text mining is the extraction of useful information from large volumes of literature. This report addresses text mining in the context of the science and technology literature. It describes the major text mining components, and shows its myriad applications in support of science and technology. To show some of the text mining products, illustrative examples from diverse literatures, but (mainly) from analytical chemistry, will be presented.
A new paradigm, a radical innovation, the next killer application–the terms differ, but they all point to the same thing: a major change in the technology base for a mature industry. A discontinuous technological change (DTC) poses a significant challenge for the companies operating in the affected industry. The technology at the foundation of their products and markets has changed, and they must find a way to adapt to that change. To maintain their competitive standing, they must master the new technology and ensure that their products and processes fully exploit it.
Noting that alliances offer an increasingly popular means for meeting the challenges that a DTC presents, C. Jay Lambe and Robert E. Spekman explore two issues related to alliances and DTC. First, why does DTC motivate companies to use alliances as a means for acquiring technology? And second, how do these motivations change during the various stages of the DTC life‐cycle? By understanding the relationship between DTC and technology sourcing alliances, a firm can increase the likelihood of success for its alliances and thus improve the effectiveness of its product development efforts.
When faced with a DTC, an established firm has three options for obtaining the new technology: merging with or acquiring a company that already possesses the technology; developing the required capabilities by using existing resources; or entering into some form of alliance. Because of time‐to‐market pressures and industry uncertainty, alliances often take precedence over the other two options for acquiring the new technology. However, the attractiveness of alliances also varies as a result of changes in the levels of urgency and uncertainty throughout the DTC life‐cycle.
The advent of a radical innovation is marked by a relatively low sense of urgency and high levels of industry uncertainty. Firms are not yet certain how the new technology will affect the industry, and they may not feel compelled to enter into technology sourcing alliances. As the new technology takes hold–and the levels of urgency and uncertainty peak–the motivation for entering into a technology sourcing alliance also reaches its highest level. Firms must move quickly to secure a position of market leadership, and the right alliance can jump‐start those efforts. During the latter stages in the DTC life‐cycle, the technology and the market requirements become more stable, the levels of urgency and industry uncertainty decrease, and firms often shift their focus from alliances to internal development and acquisitions.
Although many new‐products professionals may harbor hopes of developing “the next big thing” in their respective industries, most product development efforts focus on incremental innovations. Accordingly, most research on the new‐product development (NPD) process focuses on the development of evolutionary products. For new‐products professionals seeking insights into the means for achieving breakthrough innovations, a fundamental question remains unanswered: Does the NPD process for discontinuous products differ from the process for incremental, or continuous, products?
To provide a better understanding of managerial practices associated with discontinuous innovation, Robert Veryzer presents findings from an in‐depth study of eight discontinuous product development projects. The study explores the key factors that affect the discontinuous NPD process, as well as the methods that the firms in this study use for assessing the radically new products they have in development. From the findings in this study, he develops a descriptive model of the discontinuous product development process, and he offers insights into the requirements for effective management of discontinuous innovation projects.
Although half the firms in the study use a formal process for evaluating radically innovative products, the participants in the study generally do not employ a formal, highly structured process for managing discontinuous NPD efforts. However, these firms do follow a consistent, logical process in the development of radical innovations, and their process differs significantly from incremental NPD processes.
The processes used by the firms in this study are more exploratory and less customer driven than the typical, incremental NPD process. The impetus for all the projects in this study comes from the convergence of developing technologies, various contextual or environmental factors (for example, government regulations), and a product champion or visionary. Starting from these drivers, the discontinuous NPD process focuses on formulating a product application for the emerging technologies. In all cases, these firms developed prototypes at an earlier stage than the typical, incremental NPD process. To aid in the formulation of a new product application from emerging technologies, prototype construction in these discontinuous NPD projects precedes opportunity analysis, assessment of market attractiveness, market research, and financial analysis.
Literature-based discovery has resulted in new knowledge. In the biomedical context, Don R. Swanson has generated several literature-based hypotheses that have been corroborated experimentally and clinically. In this paper, we propose a two-step model of the discovery process in which hypotheses are generated and subsequently tested. We have implemented this model in a Natural Language Processing system that uses biomedical Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) concepts as its unit of analysis. We use the semantic information that is provided with these concepts as a powerful filter to successfully simulate Swanson's discoveries of connecting Raynaud's disease with fish oil and migraine with a magnesium deficiency.
Conversion of science to technology typically represents a transition across cultures, organizations, time scales, perspectives, personal motivations and philosophies. The purpose of this special issue is to address the specific problem of efficient and effective conversion of science to technology. This special issue will focus on the ideas, concepts and principles (for improving the science to technology conversion) that can be derived from past and present practices, and will complement recent special journal issues on Research Impact Assessment (Evaluation Review, February 1994) and Performance Measures for Government Sponsored Research (Scientometrics, July–August 1996).
The theme that permeates this special issue is that efficient science to technology conversion is a contact sport. It is critical that interested parties (from each side of the science-technology barrier) develop early awareness of, and subsequent early involvement in, each other's culture, problems, and potential to maximize opportunities for removing impediments to successful transition. Awareness and involvement can be greatly enhanced through the use of the latest findings and tools resulting from advances in information science and technology. The various papers in this special issue present concepts and successful examples for enhancing mutual awareness and deepening the breadth and period of involvement that eventually result in transition obstacle removal.
Database tomography (DT) is a textual database analysis system consisting of two major components: (1) algorithms for extracting multi-word phrase frequencies and phrase proximities (physical closeness of the multi-word technical phrases) from any type of large textual database, to augment (2) interpretative capabilities of the expert human analyst. DT was used to derive technical intelligence from an electrochemical power database derived from the science citation index (SCI). Phrase frequency analysis by the technical domain experts provided the pervasive technical themes of the electrochemical power database, and the phrase proximity analysis provided the relationships among the pervasive technical themes. Bibliometric analysis of the electrochemical power literature supplemented the DT results with author/journal/institution publication and citation data.
This paper describes two novel complementary approaches for systematically enhancing the process of innovation and discovery. One approach is workshop-based and the other approach is literature-based. Both approaches have the common feature of exploring knowledge from very disparate technical disciplines and technologies, and transferring insights and understanding from one or more disparate technical areas to another. It is highly recommended that the approaches be combined into a single process. The integrated approach has the potential to be a major breakthrough for the systematic promotion of innovation and discovery.
This paper surveys applications of data mining techniques to large text collections, and illustrates how those techniques can be used to support the management of science and technology research. Specific issues that arise repeatedly in the conduct of research management are described, and a textual data mining architecture that extends a classic paradigm for knowledge discovery in databases is introduced. That architecture integrates information retrieval from text collections, information extraction to obtain data from individual texts, data warehousing for the extracted data, data mining to discover useful patterns in the data, and visualization of the resulting patterns. At the core of this architecture is a broad view of data mining—the process of discovering patterns in large collections of data—and that step is described in some detail. The final section of the paper illustrates how these ideas can be applied in practice, drawing upon examples from the recently completed first phase of the textual data mining program at the Office of Naval Research. The paper concludes by identifying some research directions that offer significant potential for improving the utility of textual data mining for research management applications.
An unintended consequence of specialization in science is poor communication across specialties. Information developed in one area of research may be of value in another without anyone becoming aware of the fact. We describe and evaluate interactive software and database search strategies that facilitate the discovery of previously unknown cross-specialty information of scientific interest. The user begins by searching MEDLINE for article titles that identify a problem or topic of interest. From downloaded titles the software constructs input for additional database searches and produces a series of heuristic aids that help the user select a second set of articles complementary to the first set and from a different area of research. The two sets are complementary if together they can reveal new useful information that cannot be inferred from either set alone. The software output further helps the user identify the new information and derive from it a novel testable hypothesis. We report several successful tests and applications of the system.
Literature-based discovery has resulted in new knowledge. In the biomedical context, Don R. Swanson has generated several literature-based hypotheses that have been corroborated experimentally and clinically. In this paper, we propose a two-step model of the discovery process in which hypotheses are generated and subsequently tested. We have implemented this model in a Natural Language Processing system that uses biomedical Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) concepts as its unit of analysis. We use the semantic information that is provided with these concepts as a powerful filter to successfully simulate Swanson's discoveries of connecting Raynaud's disease with fish oil and migraine with a magnesium deficiency.
Identifying the users and impact of research is important for research performers, managers, evaluators, and sponsors. It is important to know whether the audience reached is the audience desired. It is useful to understand the technical characteristics of the other research/development/applications impacted by the originating research, and to understand other characteristics (names, organizations, countries) of the users impacted by the research. Because of the many indirect pathways through which fundamental research can impact applications, identifying the user audience and the research impacts can be very complex and time consuming. The purpose of this article is to describe a novel approach for identifying the pathways through which research can impact other research, technology development, and applications, and to identify the technical and infrastructure characteristics of the user population. A novel literature-based approach was developed to identify the user community and its characteristics. The research performed is characterized by one or more articles accessed by the Science Citation Index (SCI) database, beccause the SCI's citation-based structure enables the capability to perform citation studies easily.
Don R. Swanson has undertaken a program of research to use the published medical literature as a source of discoveries. We have attempted to replicate his discovery of a connection between Raynaud's disease and dietary fish oil, as well as develop computer-based searching methods that could usefully support literature-based discoveries. We have been successful in replicating Swanson's discovery and have developed a method of discovery support based on the complete text of MEDLINE records. From these, we compute statistics based both on the frequency of tokens within a literature and on the number of records containing various tokens. We discuss the use of these statistics, suggesting that token and record frequencies are good indicators of literatures profitably related to some source literature, and that relative record frequencies are useful in isolating literatures with the potential of containing a discovery. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Analyzes how successful firms fail when confronted with technological and market changes, prescribing a list of rules for firms to follow as a solution. Precisely because of their adherence to good management principles, innovative, well-managed firms fail at the emergence of disruptive technologies - that is, innovations that disrupt the existing dominant technologies in the market. Unfortunately, it usually does not make sense to invest in disruptive technologies until after they have taken over the market. Thus, instead of exercising what are typically good managerial decisions, at the introduction of technical or market change it is very often the case that managers must make counterintuitive decisions not to listen to customers, to invest in lower-performance products that produce lower margins, and to pursue small markets. From analysis of the disk drive industry, a set of rules is devised - the principles of disruptive innovation - for managers to measure when traditional good management principles should be followed or rejected. According to the principles of disruptive innovation, a manager should plan to fail early, often, and inexpensively, developing disruptive technologies in small organizations operating within a niche market and with a relevant customer base. A case study in the electric-powered vehicles market illustrates how a manager can overcome the challenges of disruptive technologies using these principles of disruptive innovation. The mechanical excavator industry in the mid-twentieth century is also described, as an example in which most companies failed because they were unwilling to forego cable excavator technology for hydraulics machines. While there is no "right answer" or formula to use when reacting to unpredictable technological change, managers will be able to adapt as long as they realize that "good" managerial practices are only situationally appropriate. Though disruptive technologies are inherently high-risk, the more a firm invests in them, the more it learns about the emerging market and the changing needs of consumers, so that incremental advances may lead to industry-changing leaps. (CJC)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1999 This dissertation investigates whether the automatic grouping of similar documents (document clustering) is a feasible method of presenting the results of Web search engines. We identify several key requirements for document clustering of search engine results: clustering quality, concise and accurate cluster descriptions, and speed. In response, we present a novel clustering algorithm---Suffix Tree Clustering (STC) specifically designed for this task in several respects. First, STC groups documents based on shared phrases. Second, it allows overlapping clusters. Finally, STC is a fast, incremental, and linear-time (in the number of documents) algorithm. We have evaluated the clustering quality of STC and showed it superior to other commonly used algorithms on Web search engine results. We have also shown STC to be significantly faster than other linear-time algorithms when clustering search engine snippets. We have incorporated STC into the Grouper system, which is available at http:// vww.cs.washington.edu/research/clustering . Grouper is, to our knowledge, the first implementation of a post-retrieval document-clustering interface to a Web search engine.Inspired by STC's success, we studied the use of phrases for clustering across a variety of clustering algorithms. Phrases contain more information than single words (information regarding proximity and order of words) and have the equally important advantage of having a higher descriptive power. We have shown that using phrases substantially improves the performance of all algorithms tested including hierarchical group-average, k-means, single pass, Fractionation and Buckshot.
We report experiments that use lexical statistics, such as word frequency counts, to discover hidden connections in the medical literature. Hidden connections are those that are unlikely to be found by examination of bibliographic citations or the use of standard indexing methods and yet establish a relationship between topics that might profitably be explored by scientific research. Our experiments were conducted with the MEDLINE medical literature database and follow and extend the work of Swanson. Peer Reviewed http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/34257/1/3_ftp.pdf
Latent semantic indexing (LSI) is a statistical technique for improving information retrieval effectiveness. Here, we use LSI to assist in literature-based discoveries. The idea behind literature-based discoveries is that different authors have already published certain underlying scientific ideas that, when taken together, can be connected to hypothesize a new discovery, and that these connections can be made by exploring the scientific literature. We explore latent semantic indexing's effectiveness on two discovery processes: uncovering “nearby” relationships that are necessary to initiate the literature based discovery process; and discovering more distant relationships that may genuinely generate new discovery hypotheses. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Peer Reviewed http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/34255/1/2_ftp.pdf
An uncomplicated data retrieval system is described. The mechanics include a commercial unit, Acme Visible Records Electrofile. The unit has a keyboard and cards adapted for use in a gynecologic oncology service. This sytem enables the physician to record and retrieve information on a specific patient or group of patients quickly, without the time-consuming necessity for obtaining complete medical records or files. The system occupies less floor space than a standard filing cabinet.
Divide and conquer—the strategy that science uses to cope with the mountains of printed matter it produces—appears on the surface to serve us well. Science organizes itself into manageable units—scientific specialties—and so its literature is created and assimilated in manageable chunks or units. But a few clouds on the horizon ought not to go unexamined. First, most of the units are no doubt logically related to other units. Second, there are far more combinations of units, therefore far more potential relationships among the units, than there are units. Third, the system is not organized to cope with combinations. I suggest that important relationships might be escaping our notice. Individual units of literature are created to some degree independently of one another, and, insofar as that is so, the logical connections among the units, though inevitable, may be unintended by and even unknown to their creators. Until those fragments, like scattered pieces of a puzzle, are brought together, the relationships among them may remain undiscovered—even though the isolated pieces might long have been public knowledge. My purpose in this essay is to show, by means of an example, how this might happen. I shall identify two units of literature that are logically connected but noninteractive; neither seems to acknowledge the other to any substantial degree. Yet the logical connections, once apparent, lead to a potentially useful and possibly new hypothesis.
With so much scientific information now available electronically, clever researchers can now search the literature far outside their field of expertise for new ideas and important results. But how does one find those gems among the mountains of scientific articles? Ronald Kostoff and Ronald DeMarco of the Office of Naval Research present the concept of text mining and show how it can be applied in various ways to extract those key articles.
Modern information technology provides the biomedical professional with powerful tools and processes for extracting useful information from large volumes of text. Presently, little use is made of the full capabilities of these tools to supplement research and teaching. This article gives an overview of these tools and processes, and shows the diversity of ways they can be applied to enhance the capabilities of biomedical professionals. The article defines information technology terms, presents the requirements for extracting high-quality information, describes some available techniques for extracting information, and summarizes myriad information-extraction applications. While the biomedical researcher or teacher can gain substantial benefits by using effective information-extraction techniques, substantial time and effort and technical expertise are required to generate a credible high-quality product, that is, the information needed.
This paper develops a framework for analyzing the competitive implications of innovation. The framework is based on the concept of transilience — the capacity of an innovation to influence the established systems of production and marketing. Application of the concept results in a categorization of innovation into four types. Examples from the technical history of the US auto industry are used to illustrate the concepts and their applicability. The analysis shows that the categories of innovation are closely linked to different patterns of evolution and to different managerial environments. Special emphasis is placed on the role of incremental technical change in shaping competition and on the possibilities for a technology based reversal in the process of industrial maturity.
The literature is full of anecdotes that show new small firms attacking existing markets with innovations based upon disruptive technologies and achieving phenomenal success. Because of this, some theorists argue that disruptive technologies are best commercialized by new small firms. If this is true, can a logical rationale be developed that explains this unique capacity of new firms? If so, can empirical research of new and established firms in an industry fraught with a disruptive technology identify the advantages that new firms have over established firms in the commercialization process? The purpose of this paper is to examine the different roles of established and new firms in disruptive technology commercialization. The authors begin by developing a model of the innovation process beginning with technology creation and ending with user adoption and application. From this model they develop propositions for testing. The authors use survey data collected from 72 micro-electro-mechanical-systems (MEMS) manufacturing firms. Their results from the MEMS industry show that established firms rarely commercialize disruptive technologies and then prefer to use market-pull strategies to accomplish this. New firms select primarily disruptive technologies and choose either market-pull or technology-push strategies for commercialization. Perhaps more important, time to market for new firms is one-fourth that for established firms. These results suggest that new firms have two advantages in commercialization of disruptive technologies-flexibility in marketing strategy and much shorter times to market.