No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Deliberate ignorance in project risk management
Abstract
The management of project risk is considered a key discipline by most organisations involved in projects. Best practice project risk management processes are claimed to be self-evidently correct. However, project risk management involves a choice between which information is utilized and which is deemed to be irrelevant and hence excluded. Little research has been carried out to ascertain the manifestation of barriers to optimal project risk management such as ‘irrelevance’; the deliberate inattention of risk actors to risk. This paper presents the results of a qualitative study of IT project managers, investigating their reasons for deeming certain known risks to be irrelevant. The results both confirm and expand on Smithson’s [Smithson, M., 1989. Ignorance and Uncertainty. Springer-Verlag, New York] taxonomy of ignorance and uncertainty and in particular offer further context related insights into the phenomenon of ‘irrelevance’ in project risk management. We suggest that coping with ‘irrelevance’ requires defence mechanisms, the effective management of relevance as well as the setting of, and sticking to priorities.
... While coping strategies and defence mechanisms help investors invest without worrying about uncertainty, at the same time, they also increase investors' trust in financial markets and instruments, and confidence in their own investment success (Hogrefe et al., 2018;Jonason et al., 2020;Kutsch & Hall, 2010). High trust and confidence also lead to risky investment. ...
... This erroneous behaviour creates anxiety and worry. To cope with this, defence mechanisms are involved, and, as Kutsch and Hall (2010) stated, this process affects the preferences of individuals regarding risk management. Therefore, individuals exploit both unconscious and partial awareness and defence mechanisms (Aren & Hamamcı, 2022), which affects their risky investment intentions. ...
... Taffler (2014) also pointed out that these characteristics are the main variables in the tendency towards risky investment instruments. With the activation of defence mechanisms, individuals unconsciously perceive what they want to do (Taffler, 2018).With the activation of defence mechanisms, individuals' risk perceptions and preferences are affected, and they feel more confident in themselves and analytical results (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). Other studies, albeit limited, have investigated self-confidence and trust in defence mechanisms. ...
This study investigated the mediating effect of trust and self-confidence on the effects of both conscious processes (coping strategies) and unconscious processes (defence mechanisms) on risky investment intention. In this context, data were collected from 832 participants using an online survey. Exploratory factor and correlation analyses were performed on the collected data, and the research model was tested using structural equation modelling. According to the results of the analysis, both coping strategies and defence mechanisms have an effect on risky investment intention, and self-confidence has a mediating role in this relationship. This study is unique because it explores the effects of both conscious and unconscious processes on financial decisions.
... Different effectiveness are drawn such as techniques gives knowledge of conti identifying pre-identified reaction to the problems, risk can be communicated with future managers and increase investment returns. The risk assessment template will enable the project manager to know about the risk and resolving it there might be chances that the budget exceeds and in that case manager will know prior that budget is left in contingency [Kutsch, 2010]. The techniques acknowledge the events that will take place so that they can be responsive to the problems. ...
... Different effectiveness are drawn such as techniques gives knowledge of conti identified reaction to the problems, risk can be communicated with future managers and increase investment returns. The risk assessment template will enable the project manager to know about the risk and ght be chances that the budget exceeds and in that case manager will know prior that budget is left in contingency [Kutsch, 2010]. The techniques acknowledge the events that will take place so that they hniques will enable the project manager to set the example by developing a plan of risk management that can be used by the future manager. ...
... Different effectiveness are drawn such as techniques gives knowledge of contingency budget, identified reaction to the problems, risk can be communicated with future managers and increase investment returns. The risk assessment template will enable the project manager to know about the risk and ght be chances that the budget exceeds and in that case manager will know prior that budget is left in contingency [Kutsch, 2010]. The techniques acknowledge the events that will take place so that they hniques will enable the project manager to set the example by developing a plan of risk management that can be used by the future manager. ...
Purpose: There are different types of projects that have been carried out by the project management organization. But the risk is also involved in managing the project. The purpose of study is to look at risk involved in the project and how it can be measured through use of techniques and minimized as well. The techniques will be supporting the project manager to make the correct decisions for the project success and timely deliverables. Research methodology: The qualitative research is to be used in having a more detailed analysis of the topic. The secondary research uses qualitative methods by considering the journals, books and web articles. It means books and paper of previous authors will be applied. Results: The use of effective techniques of project risk management will be done to minimize the risk and take timely measures. The techniques will help in making effective decisions that will lower down risk in the study. Conclusion: The project risk management techniques are used to make the project simple and lower down the risk of errors and failure in the project. The different techniques such as brainstorming, risk register, risk template are commonly used by the project manager to mitigate the risk. However, the risks cannot be eliminated that act as the challenge for manager even after applying the techniques initially in project.
... All of the above cases revealed systemic management control failings such as tolerance to poor standards, failure to assess risks, and repeated failures to identify and investigate serious incidents (Vize, 2019). largely constrained to the study of ignorance that is beyond the reach of the systematic and cognitive influence of the individual (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). More specifically, prior studies indicate that particular control systems assist organisational participants in coping with diverse and inevitable knowledge-processing problems, 7 such as uncertainty (Ditillo, 2004), complexity (Grafton et al., 2011), ambiguity (Hall, 2008) and equivocality (Burney & Widener, 2007;Burney et al., 2009), where MCS offer clarification (Hall, 2008), guidance (Bisbe & Otley, 2004), and correction (Burney & Widener, 2007;Burney et al., 2009). ...
... Thus, our focus on deliberate ignorance, as another dimension of misconduct, is a novel approach. Individuals can deploy considerable power over knowledge that they reject deliberately, and this, in turn, may impact information flows as well as on both individual and organisational performance (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). ...
... From an organisational point of view, deliberate ignorance can adopt different forms. 8 First, it may be materialised through a self-restriction on certain knowledge, either of internal or external origin, which can be considered risky, inappropriate, potentially destructive, or corruptive (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The existence of this knowledge can create nervousness, anxiety or discomfort between coworkers and, as a result, can be considered a taboo. ...
We examine the impact of employees' perceptions of management control systems (MCS) as a threat on two forms of misconduct: deliberate ignorance and workplace deviance. Drawing on the theory of cognitive dissonance, we predict that a perceived threat is associated with a decrease in workplace deviance but may also trigger unintended consequences, such as deliberate ignorance. Hypotheses are tested using survey data from three large hospitals. Taken together, our results suggest that employees' perceptions of MCS as a threat have (1) a negative curvilinear effect on workplace deviance and (2) a positive linear association with deliberate ignorance. Additionally, we find that the need for professional autonomy shapes the effect of employees' perception of MCS as a threat on both forms of misconduct. Overall, by providing new empirical evidence on how employees perceive MCS and their (un)intended consequences, we add to the growing body of research on the effects of control systems on employees' behaviour.
... A typical risk management process includes the following key steps [35]: risk identification; risk assessment; risk mitigation; risk monitoring ( Figure 2). Risk management is a key element in the success of most projects [37][38][39][40][41][42]. It can be said that the risk management of a project is considered a key task in project management, so some researchers define project management as the same as project risk management [43]. ...
... Research by [51] also used FMEA by using the proposed FMEA scale table for the frequency of occurrence, severity of effect, and detectability of risk factors in the passive building process. They took advantage of the FMEA scales developed by Ford Motor Company (1988) Risk management is a key element in the success of most projects [37][38][39][40][41][42]. It can be said that the risk management of a project is considered a key task in project management, so some researchers define project management as the same as project risk management [43]. ...
Potatoes are a crop that thrives in highland areas, and Bandung Regency is one of the major potato production centers in West Java. This production center is located in an environmentally focused village development area within the Cisangkuy Sub-Watershed of Bandung Regency. The purpose of this study is to identify risks arising from various risk sources and to formulate risk control strategies for potato production in this region. The method used is the house of risk (HOR) method. In farming activities, farmers must comply with environmental regulations. However, many farmers are still unaware of the importance of environmental sustainability, particularly in their use of chemicals. To actively engage in environmental management efforts, it is crucial to understand the characteristics of potato farmers in Bandung Regency, especially those located in the development area of environmentally focused villages within the Cisangkuy Sub-Watershed. The results of this study identified 33 risk events. The risk event with the highest impact is waterlogged plants (E10), with an impact value of 8.9. Based on the Pareto diagram, 16 priority risk sources need to be addressed. The most significant risk source identified is the use of uncertified seeds (A29). To mitigate risks in potato production, 21 preventive actions (PAs) have been proposed. One of the most effective strategies is for farmers to purchase seed potatoes directly from Balitsa (PA1), with an effectiveness ratio (ETD) of 4372. Another recommended strategy is to purchase certified seeds from other breeders (PA2). These strategies are prioritized to reduce the risks faced by potato farmers.
... The RM literature is extensive, and much is beyond the scope of this research. The role of culture, organisational change (Mu et al., 2014;Olechowski et al., 2016), the need to collaborate at the 'fuzzy' front end (Pinto & Winch, 2016;Akerman et al., 2014), understand linguistics (Aven, 2012;Flores, 2013), avoid ignoring risks (Kutsch & Hall, 2010), and improve opportunity management within a holistic and iterative process is recognized (ISO 31000:2018). However, it is clear more case studies on collaborative approaches to RM are required. ...
... Therefore, the more of the 'right' people in the room, to have the right conversations at the right time, the richer the conversations. You don't know, what you don't know until you know it, and knowledge of risks alone does not equate to understanding and in some cases as Kutsch and Hall (2010) posit, leads to ignoring them. ...
Project management methods like risk management (RM), production planning (including make-ready) and continuous improvement (CI), are often considered in isolation of each other. The literature recognises how teams struggle with implementing these methods according to known current best practices and standards. The purpose of this paper is to report the ongoing development of a research artefact called IRMA 360 0 (Integrated Risk Management Approach) through a Longitudinal Action Case Study over four cases between 2016 and 2024. There is a particular focus on Case 4-an ISO 18404 Certified Alliance. In summary, this research has identified links between RM, make-ready planning and CI, and proposes IRMA 360 0 as a model to advance the Last Planner® System (LPS) by feeding what 'might' happen or might be possible through 'should, can, will, did, learn' functions. We conclude that both effective RM and make-ready are required to create and protect value which includes reliable workflow. However, to embed RM and make-ready planning a safe and collaborative environment is desired. In theory, RM is complex as it deals with uncertainty. On the other hand, make-ready is a relatively straightforward activity to 'just' screen tasks for constraints. However, in practice both are extremely difficult to implement.
... Further conflicting results deal with the adoption of a proactive approach to PRM [41,42], since high proactivity can be perceived as non-value-adding due to organisational culture, a high level of uncertainty, and even its cost [13,43,44]. ...
... This transparency is recognised as a value-adding practice also through empirical results, reducing the risk of mistakes detrimental to project output [33], improving decision-making [13,25,[34][35][36][37], and fostering the creation of a common shared vision by influencing stakeholders' perceptions and expectations [38][39][40]. On the contrary, according to other empirical results, excessive transparency can cause unwanted and On the contrary, other results suggest that these benefits are influenced by context, namely the level of project complexity [34,98], the project manager's level of awareness about risks and PRM [27,29,43], and his ability to reduce the impact of risk-related interventions, especially those related to stakeholders' management [27,34]. ...
The conceptual shift, from a traditional task perspective and a managerial approach to project risks toward a value-centric view, underlines the challenge of creating different forms of value for multiple project stakeholders. This emerging theme arises the need for a new holistic framework for value creation through Project Risk Management (PRM). With this purpose, the paper aims at deepening the knowledge about PRM for value creation. A systematic literature review has been conducted, extracting a database of 116 papers. To address the research questions, a descriptive and a content analysis have been performed. The results of a systematic literature review reveal that the value created through PRM includes both economic and intangible (not monetary) benefits. Moreover, even if international standards are giving greater relevance to value creation and protection, considering also the potential positive effects of risks, empirical results show significant discrepancies. From the analysis of the results, a new theoretical framework emerges that integrates fundamental aspects not fully considered so far, incorporating the concepts of economic, ecological, and social impacts into the notion of value creation through PRM. This work extends the current research in this field and sets forth the definition of a holistic framework to promote the creation of value for project stakeholders in practice, through the management of negative and positive risks, providing a perspective on the sustainability orientation of projects.
... Organising frameworks which are not always regulated by the state are procedural safety rules, such as swimming safety and fire drill instructions. In a sense, risk management, with its institutional analysis and plans for mitigating possible risk [Dionne, 2013;Kutsch and Hall, 2010], also fall under procedural safety. On a community or individual level, we come to Giddens' concept: ontological security. ...
This chapter utilises the Scandinavian term trygghet to explore interconnected ideas of safety, security, vulnerability, and (potential) threat. To build the case for the term's versatility as an analytical concept suitable for exploring micro, meso, and macro affective dimensions, the argument is presented in parts. The first section explores the meaning of the term within the Scandinavian context, and the way in which it is used academically and colloquially. Secondly, academic concepts centred on safety and security are mapped out, demonstrating the breadth of terms and concepts which address such issues. The next section tackles the UN right to security of person, which illustrates the challenges connected to operationalisation of just one safety and security concept. Finally, using an empirical case study, the concept is applied as an analytical lens to explore multiple layers of safety, security, and vulnerability. The chapter concludes by developing the multi-dimensionality of the term trygghet and how it can be used to analyse spatio-temporal contexts, highlighting vulnerabilities-who is experiencing vulnerability, what form of vulnerability, and the source of the vulnerability. Crucially, the term captures the affective dimensions of safety and security, and thus serves as an important contribution to the field of disaster risk reduction.
... The notion of causal mechanisms has gained much attention, also in the social sciences in connection with process tracing (Bygstad et al., 2016;Craver & Tabery, 2017;Glennan, 1975;Kincaid, 2012a;Machamber et al., 2000;Waldner, 2012;Ylikoski, 2012;Hedstrom & Swedberg, 1996;Kutsch & Hall, 2010). "In process tracing, one concatenates causally relevant events by enumerating the events constituting a process, identifying the underlying causal mechanisms generating [...] those events, and hence linking constituent events into a robust causal chain that connects one or more independent variables to the outcome in question. ...
... In addition, the resistance of organisations is also a result of insufficient leadership in executing risk management-related measures. Kutsch and Hall (2010) identified that among 19 analysed large-scale IT projects, projects that enhanced executives' support of risk management frameworks were 3. Such supported projects are five times more likely to successfully implement and sustain proper risk management processes than projects that are not supported. ...
The research paper highlights critical issues in managing risks in large projects, tightening modern project managers' and stakeholders' knots in their work. The paper also discusses risk assessment, management, and monitoring tools for technical, financial, operational, and environmental threats. Based on evaluating current risk management frameworks and pinpointing the tendencies associated with using technology solutions and artificial intelligence in the risk management processes, this paper will serve as a practical guide for designing comprehensive risk management strategies and promoting a risk-aware culture in organisations. The implications of the results are related to stakeholder management, sustainability, and flexibility during the execution of large-scale project risks.
... Pessimism, comprising three items, was adapted from Scheier et al. (1994), while the psychological detachment construct, containing four items, was adapted from Sonnentag and Fritz (2007). Similarly, the items for deliberate ignorance were adapted from Roberts (2012), and Kutsch and Hall (2010). ...
The foundational comprehension of the deliberate ignorance of green/sustainable services from the tourist's standpoint has been significantly overlooked. Thus, this research aims to testify to the effects of stimuli (information overload and pessimism) on deliberate ignorance towards green tourism. This investigation is grounded in an integration of stimulus-organism-response theory, Cognitive Avoidance Theory and Cognitive Load Theory, with a particular focus on the mediating role of psychological detachment. A quantitative analysis was carried out through a questionnaire in which data was collected from 180 tourists. Structural equation modelling was conducted to examine the hypotheses. The results of this work found that environmental stimuli significantly increased tourists' psychological detachment towards green services. Furthermore, tourists' psychological detachment mediated the link between stimuli and deliberate ignorance as an outcome construct. This study suggests that practitioners should pay close attention to the environmental stimuli that may influence tourists' psychological detachment and subsequently deliberate ignorance action towards green tourism. The present study pioneers the examination of the credible empirical influence of stimuli on tourists' psychological detachment, subsequently contributing to deliberate ignorance towards green tourism. ARTICLE HISTORY
... Organizational factors like measures (Stachowicz-Stanusch and Simha, 2013), transparency (Oyewobi et al., 2011), strategies (Wicks et al., 1999), and ethics link to non-compliance (Hansen and Beukema, 2014). These elements collectively form the "Organizational Climate, " representing employees' shared perceptions and meanings about policies, practices, procedures, rewards, support, and expectations (Kutsch and Hall, 2010). Additionally, the project's inherent pressures, including cost (Bowen et al., 2012), time (Tow and Loosemore, 2009), quality (Stansbury, 2005), and various other factors, serve as environmental stimuli influencing employees' compliance decisions in international construction projects. ...
Introduction
This study explores the overlooked psychological and behavioral dynamics of employees in compliance management, applying the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) framework to assess environmental stimuli’s impact on employees in international construction projects.
Methods
A scenario-based survey involving 270 international construction employees was analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA), focusing on the relationship between environmental stimuli and compliance intentions.
Results
Findings categorize environmental influences on compliance into internal and external organizational dimensions, highlighting the significant impact of internal factors on compliance intentions. Key determinants identified for high compliance intention include individual traits and organizational climate, while project pressures, rules and regulations, and cultural differences show variable influence.
Conclusion
This study enhances the understanding of the psychological factors driving non-compliant behaviors and introduces a binary micro-ecological approach to compliance management, effectively integrating individual and project organizational elements. In contrast to traditional corporate governance approaches, this strategy emphasizes the role of project organizational micro-ecology in the management of international construction projects. The strategy aims to improve compliance management among international contractors by influencing the psychological and behavioral compliance of frontline employees.
... This refers to the possibility that the investment made in funding the technology might be lost due to various reasons, such as project abandonment or technological replacement (Jaafari, 2001) Market risk This refers to the possibility that the market may not be as large as expected, which may make it difficult for investors to recoup their investment (Jaafari, 2001) Organizational risk This primarily refers to the possibility that organizations may not have sufficient skills or resources to accommodate new situations (Kutsch & Hall, 2010) Integration risk ...
Nowadays various innovative technologies have been adopted by governments worldwide in resolving various complex and grand societal challenges. We have reported an in-depth case study, which has elaborated how a Chinese metro company has governed the risks of adopting an innovative technology, mobile payment. We have identified three primary risks involved in adopting mobile payment technology, namely promotion risk, integration risk, and organizational risk. For the governance of the risks involved, three different governance strategies were adopted by the metro company in Nanjing, namely, no response, control-oriented strategy, and toleration-oriented strategy.
... Consequently, it is critical for any organization and society to increase managerial effectiveness and effective risk management (Muniapan, 2007). Interaction between internal and external stakeholders is necessary for risk management (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). To foster a sense of individual accountability for risks and their management, the entire management team needs to be included in the risk management process (Project Management Institute, 2004). ...
SMEs are crucial to the economic growth of many countries, particularly developing ones like Malaysia. SMEs have contributed significantly to economic growth but they also often struggle with problems related to poor management, which increases the risk of failure and closure. Effective risk management is essential in sustaining the long-term sustainability of SMEs and improving managerial performance. This study investigates the enterprise risk management (ERM) practices used by Malaysian SMEs in the manufacturing sector. The factors influencing the risk management behaviors and practices of SME manufacturing workers and their compliance with risk management protocols are examined in this study using a mixed-methods approach. This study focuses on employee behavior to better understand how organizational culture affects risk management techniques in SMEs. To design effective reward and recognition programs, this research also examines the psychological components of risk management while accounting for the organizational, societal, and financial challenges that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The study also examines the impact of organizational structure on the efficacy of risk management initiatives in small and medium-sized enterprises. The practical findings of the study are expected to demonstrate the extent to which ERM influences organizational effectiveness in Malaysia's SME manufacturing sector. This study intends to equip industry participants with the knowledge and confidence necessary to implement ERM successfully in their operations by offering insights into the factors that encourage and impede ERM adoption and its impact on organizational performance. This research advances ERM practices among SMEs and strengthens Malaysian businesses' resilience and risk awareness.
... The differences between Makete and Rugwe districts could have been attributed to the districts' success or failure to identify felt and expressed recipients' needs at the inception of the project intervention. Kutsch and Hall (2010) noted that irrelevant projects might become counterproductive to recipients. According to observations made by Sovannarith (2009) report that poverty reduction occurs in part by lifting those in poverty by ensuring that benefits are evenly distributed. ...
Appreciation of health service costs is increasingly an obstacle for vulnerable communities to
access services. However, little information based on appropriate methodological approach is
available on how development intervention affects the health status of the recipient poor people.
This study was conducted to assess the ex-post livelihood impact of Tanzania Social Action Fund
intervention in Agriculture for vulnerable communities in Makete and Rungwe districts.
Therefore this research examined the effectiveness of intervention on health status of the
vulnerable communities in both districts. A sample of 354 recipients and non-recipients that
included households, key informants and focus group discussions was collected from 21 villages.
A quasi-experimental approach was used to collect cross-sectional data. Heckman selection two�stage estimation model was employed in data analysis. Results showed that participation had significant positive impact (p<0.05) on health status of recipients. Therefore, it was concluded that participation in assets created improved health of beneficiaries’ though, HIV infected were the most negatively affected followed by able-bodied and elders. Thus it is recommended that the government should create assets creation through participation depending on the
vulnerability of target groups.
... Risk perception act as the mediating influences through which individual, situational, and organisational factors indirectly influence risk taking behaviour (Pablo et al., 1996). Indeed, when project managers fail to perceive possible threats, they are less likely to make decisions that benefit the project (Kutsch and Hall, 2010). ...
A project may be conceived as a coalition of absorbed and unabsorbed resources that are allocated by the organisation. As such, a project may be subject to constraints in terms of certain resources combined with excesses (i.e., resource slack) in terms of others. This paper builds on the behavioural theory and the prospect theory to understand the role of resource slack in projects by exploring: 1) how distinct bundles of absorbed and unabsorbed slack influence project managers' risk perceptions; 2) how the impact of slack on risk perceptions differs according to ongoing project performance. Hypotheses are tested by regression analysis in a sample of 106 project managers. The results show complex effects of project slack on project managers' risk perceptions.
... However, in practice, managers often fail to establish effective risk management, thereby threatening project success (Bakker et al., 2010;Kutsch & Hall, 2005). One reason that prevents effective risk management is that project managers simply ignore project risks, which prevents properly identifying, assessing, and reporting risks (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). This relates well to the motives of optimistic reporting behavior investigated in this study. ...
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
Risk management often deals with analyzing market and non-market risks (short- and long-term risks). Also, risk management analyzes the influence of risks on the corporate environment by developing strategies to mitigate risk exposure. As a developing economy, South Africa poses long-term economic, financial, and operational risks to investors through several developmental practices. These risks have raised some concerns regarding a lack of accountability, increased expenses, an unstable economy, the spread of economic crisis from one region to another, and constraints in enforcing the rule of law. The South African construction industry has been making progress in implementing risk management practice through different frameworks, and the result has been great over the years. However, there is still a lot of work to be done in terms of its full adoption, challenges, benefits, etc. It makes up the country’s reception toward risk management practice.KeywordsConstruction riskProject deliveryProject riskRisk influenceRisk practiceRisk types
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
Infrastructural development in any country would certainly enhance the economic growth of such a country and generate job opportunities. Through different practices and concepts, the construction industry in Sweden has improved tremendously over the years. Several attempts have been made in Sweden to address the issue of risk management using various methodologies. This chapter assessed the Work Environment Act (AML) and other construction bodies or regulations that are part of Swedish law that ensures adequate risk management in construction contracts with the aim of bridging knowledge gap. Other sections of the chapter discussed the history of risk management in the country, factors that affect effective implement of the practice, and other related topics. The chapter concluded that more still needs to be done in order to move the country’s construction toward that which is risk-free through identified risk management frameworks used in several other developed countries of the world.KeywordsConstruction riskProject deliveryProject riskRisk frameworkRisk managementRisk valuation
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
The construction sector has always been plagued with risk and uncertainty when compared to other sectors due to its magnitude as well as its complex and time-consuming nature. In as much as risk management entails predicting the unforeseeable, it can as well be thought of as the most important management tool for dealing with project uncertainty. Risk management is a crucial component for adding value to a project and improving its cost, time, and quality performance. Efficient risk management can bring great result to project performance by improving the productivity. In Malaysia, however, most construction companies do not practice systematic risk management. This condition has resulted in significant numbers of project failure, cost and time overrun, and poor-quality performance. Therefore, this chapter looked into the existing practice of risk management in the Malaysian construction sector and evaluated the various approaches and tools currently being utilized to manage project risk.KeywordsConstruction riskEfficient riskProject deliveryProject riskRisk planningSustainable construction
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
Risk management is considered an emerging concept in the Sri Lankan construction industry. It is gradually gaining prominence because of rising construction activity, increased complexity and sophistication in construction projects, and strong market competition. This chapter addressed risk concepts and identified the risks associated with construction projects. It also highlighted the risk management processes and the tools that can be employed to execute each phase. It was concluded that there was a certain constraint to the application of risk management in Sri Lanka, as most clients were not proficient about risk management benefits and felt that contractors and consultants have the obligation to bear the risk effects by their own cost. Also, clients that were willing to actualize risk management practices in their projects were not prepared to spend extra cost in implementing risk management process.KeywordsConstruction riskProject riskProject successRisk actualizationRisk practiceRisk management
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
The study of risk management (RM) began in the aftermath of World War II. It began with market insurance and then moved to other industries, such as finance, stock exchange, and construction projects, before finally becoming widespread. In its most basic form, risk management seeks to safeguard individuals and businesses against financial losses that may result from accidents. The US construction industry is one of the major pioneers of risk management concepts developed over the years. This concept has been reviewed over time in order to meet the present demand for sustainable buildings. Through different sections, by identifying the sources of risk, the purpose of risk management, and other related practices, the study gave an exclusive overview of risk management practices to achieve enhanced project delivery.KeywordsProject riskProject successRisk identificationRisk managementRisk propertiesSustainable building
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
Risk plays a significant part in getting a successful outcome in a construction project. It is an element that must be appropriately considered during the project planning process. Risk management, the study of risk, begins with the proactive identification of prospective risks and progresses to the continuing management of those risks deemed appropriate. Hazards and risks are terms that are used interchangeably; this chapter provided insight into events that might be classified as hazards or risks, depending on the circumstances. Risk has gained traction in almost every province in Canada, but there is still no defined strategic approach or framework for successful risk management. The chapter further examined the various approaches to effective risk management by providing a holistic risk management framework that will enable a more citizen-centered approach to improving public interest decision-making and a project outcome. Also, some of the benefits of risk management implementation in Canada were explained, which were sourced from the Treasury Board of Canada publications.KeywordsConstruction riskProject riskProject successRisk evaluationRisk identificationRisk management
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
Risks that have not been identified and handled pose an undeniable threat to the project’s objectives, potentially resulting in major cost and time overruns. Risk management is a proactive decision that entails several steps, including risk identification, analysis, risk response and communication, monitoring, review, and learning. This chapter focused on risk management practice in Australia by providing guidelines and principles for establishing an effective risk management framework. The chapter also provided the finest risk management framework and process for Australian construction projects, which was adapted from AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009. The concluding sections of the chapter gave the benefits and other related topics pertaining to the Australian construction industry.KeywordsConstruction riskProject riskRisk analysisRisk communicationRisk identificationRisk response
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
A construction project often necessitates the participation of a large number of individuals with varying skill sets, as well as the coordination of a wide variety of distinct but linked tasks. The particular characteristics of a project and other numerous external uncertainties add to its complexity. With this, construction projects experience cost overruns, delayed schedules, and poor quality due to numerous risks the projects are exposed to at every stage of planning and execution. This chapter examined how risk is managed in Nigeria. In view of that, this study revealed that risk management practice is low and ineffective in most developing nations of the world, and Nigeria is not exempted. This was majorly due to the lack of knowledge on risk management by parties involved in the construction project. This chapter also looked into the best and most effective risk management practices worldwide, which can be used to effectively manage risks in the Nigerian construction industry.KeywordsConstruction riskProject deliveryProject managementProject riskRisk managementRisk planning
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
The Saudi Arabian construction sector generates so much revenue that it is considered the largest public construction sector in the Persian Gulf. The country has experienced massive growth in the construction sector as a result of the government ongoing investment in social and economic infrastructures such as housing, transportation, hotel, and energy infrastructure. However, the delivery of these infrastructures is not free from risks and the attributed risk impacts. Therefore, this chapter offers insight into the causes of risk in the construction process and the management of these risks. The chapter submitted that the major risk factors in the country are cost- and time-related. Furthermore, the chapter suggested that construction clients are to blame for the majority of this problem owing to frequent changes in the scope of work and orders. The chapter concluded by offering new risk assessment tools for advanced construction that have recently become popular in some developed nations of the world.KeywordsConstruction riskRisk analysisRisk assessmentRisk managementRisk toolsUrban risk
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
The economic importance of the construction industry in developing countries cannot be overstated due to the critical need for infrastructure development and housing. The Tanzanian construction industry accounts massively for the country’s economic development. This chapter gave an insight into what risk management practice entails in general. Also, it discussed the practice in the said country along with challenges, impediments, and other related subsections. The study concluded that there is a low level of adoption of risk management practices among the construction professionals of the country. The study stated that the reason for this is the fact that risk management is still in its early stages. The chapter recommended that training and further awareness should be encouraged to increase the level of adoption and implementation in projects.KeywordsConstruction industryProject riskRisk managementRisk mitigationRisk practiceSustainable construction
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
Risk can be viewed as a crucial issue that must be addressed in all sectors. This chapter provided a broad overview of risks in Qatar and its management, particularly in the construction industry. As construction project planning and execution often necessitates the participation of individuals with varying skill sets coupled with coordination of a wide variety of distinct but linked tasks, the concept of risk assessment is crucial toward achieving the project in sight. The chapter examined some of the tools for effective risk management and how they can be applied in the construction industry. The chapter further identified some of the prevailing challenges as well as the benefits of implementing a risk management process in the Qatari construction industry.KeywordsConstruction riskProject deliveryRisk conceptualizationRisk planningRisk varietySustainable construction
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
The construction industry is complex in nature, and understanding all activities within the industry can be challenging. This is because of the unique approaches, methods, and techniques that relate to each project. Lately, there have been some arguments by some parties about referring to it as an industry or as a sector since it consists of many other industries (Ofori, 2015). This complexity, therefore, gives rise to numerous risks, which have effects on the quality, cost, time, and overall performance of projects. Loosemore et al. (2006) corroborated this by highlighting some of the effects of unmanaged risks on construction projects, which include uncertainties in project outcome, financial problem, liabilities, and ineffectiveness in decision-making. The construction sector is a key contributor to any country’s economic and social growth. Therefore, there is a need to effectively manage risk to ensure timely completion of construction projects in good quality and within the proposed budget, resulting in swift and profound infrastructural development.
... Despite all these highlighted benefits and effectiveness that accompany the implementation of a risk management system, in the practical sense of it, it has been discovered that organizations around the world that have successfully implemented risk management are relatively low, with the most optimistic reports placing the figure at less than 25% percent of all organizations that have implemented these processes (Kutsch & Hall, 2010). The Saudi Arabia construction industry is no exception. ...
Risk management is designed toward getting the best value on construction project by addressing and assessing possible risks either at the onset of construction or at any phases of the project execution. In a bid to understanding the general ideology behind risk management practice in both developed and developing construction industries across selected nations, this chapter inferred that even though there are similarities in terms of concept delivery, there are subsequent differences that influence how construction professionals in both regions execute risk management practice. This constituents differences in project method, delivery, and output in relation to financial resources, technology and innovation, knowledge and expertise, and regulatory framework.KeywordsConstruction riskProject managementProject riskSustainable constructionSustainable riskValue management
... Engineering managers must identify, assess, and prioritize potential risks and develop strategies to mitigate their impact on project objectives (Zwikael, O., & Ahn, M, 2011). Effective risk management can reduce project delays, cost overruns, and other negative outcomes (Kutsch, E., & Hall, M, 2010). Implementing risk management best practices involves adopting a systematic approach to risk identification and assessment, using tools such as risk matrices and Monte Carlo simulations, and continuously monitoring and updating risk profiles throughout the project lifecycle (Hillson, 2002). ...
Engineering management is a multidisciplinary field that combines technical knowledge with management skills, aiming to efficiently develop and execute engineering projects. The increasing complexity of modern projects and the dynamic environment in which they are executed have led to the development of various tools, methodologies, and best practices to improve project outcomes. This paper reviews the literature on engineering management, discussing its challenges, emerging trends, and best practices. The findings reveal that effective engineering management is crucial for achieving project success and that organizations must adapt to the rapidly changing landscape.
... Organisations that apply a displacement strategy rely on activities and practices designed to inform management about real-world events, which instead become objects of management, a kind of 'manageable surrogate' (ibid., p. 120). Similarly, Kutsch and Hall (2010) identify practices for creating irrelevance. The practices involve framing an issue as untopical, undecidable, taboo, or useless. ...
This study is linked to previous research that approaches organisations as systems of shared meaning where ignorance is created and sustained, either unintentionally or deliberately, through various social interactions,symbolic processes, and organisational structures. While previous studies have touched upon organisational ignorance, there is a lack of systematically conducted research on its many forms and its many sources. This study analyses the causes, characteristics, and consequences of organisational ignorance. By reporting a systematic review of the literature, the paper contributes to the theory of organizational ignorance by developing a framework of organisational ignorance comprising the manageability (intentional or unintentional) and dynamics (bounded or expanding) of ignorance. Instead of framing ignorance as something that should be avoided, the study adopts anuanced approach to the organisation of ignorance.
... Project risk management is defined as the systematic process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risk that has the potential to cause negative consequences to the project (Kutsch and Hall, 2010). Whereas unexpected events that occur in projects may result in either positive or negative outcomes that deviate from the project plan (Ahmed et al., 2007), risk management practices focus on the avoidance of loss from unexpected events (Williams et al., 2019). ...
Purpose
As managing risks effectively is critical for successful projects, project managers regularly identify and prioritize the risks that apply to their projects. However, research argues that project managers struggle to identify effective risk mitigation approaches for the most critical risks, partly because they do not always have the required authority to act effectively. The authors argue that, particularly in high-risk projects, organizational support (OS) provided by senior executives to project managers can facilitate a practical approach to risk mitigation beyond traditional risk management practices.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors modeled the relationship between risk, organizational support and project success. Then, the authors conducted a structural equation modeling analysis on survey data obtained from 722 projects and tested for the impacts of OS practices in the presence of risk on projects' success.
Findings
Suppose done effectively, senior executives can provide more support to project managers and the teams in high-risk projects, resulting in higher project success. OS has a positive impact on project success in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. Interestingly, the positive impact of OS on success is greater than the negative impact of the risk.
Practical implications
The paper further describes various effective OS practices to mitigate risks and explore opportunities when faced with high-risk projects.
Originality/value
Whereas it is known that risk has a negative impact on project success, this paper suggests that, in addition to that, OS is in between risk and success and has an impact on this relationship (mediation). Moreover, with OS, the total negative effect of risk on effectiveness turns into a positive impact.
... These standards can be applied in both public administrations and private organizations, providing a comprehensive and useful set of tools and techniques for RM. They also provide a common language that facilitates communication [70], which helps organizations to achieve their objectives and build resilience when facing uncertainty [71], thanks to their guidance and support. In addition, they propose a series of interrelated and interactive activities, in which the establishment of a context and the assessment, treatment, monitoring, review and communication must be emphasized. ...
Organizations undertaking construction projects often deal with uncertainty and complexity. Risks include a wide range of occurrences that can lead to project failure. However, these difficulties may be minimized if risks are properly managed. In addition, knowledge management may emerge as a key element in facing unforeseen events and detecting the actions that are working well in other projects. In this context, this study intends to demonstrate the influence of managing organizational knowledge on risk management and the impact of both on the success of projects and associated businesses. To this end, a questionnaire was distributed among construction technicians, practitioners and managers in order to assess the importance of factors managing knowledge and risk and of success criteria. Thanks to the participation of almost four hundred respondents, cause-and-effect relationships are characterized by means of structural equation modeling, statistically confirming them. The specific links between the knowledge-management projects and the skills and abilities to face risks provided by the International Project Management Association (IPMA) standards, with a relation of 0.892 out of 1, justify the 75.1% of the success of the venture. These findings prove that the application of IPMA proposals enhances the required knowledge that leads to improved completion and delivery of complex construction projects in risky environments.
Outsourcing has become increasingly important for organizations around the world because the practice offers optimization opportunities for the organizations. However, the increase in the magnitude of outsourcing has brought new complex hazards that need organizations to be aware and ready to tackle. The hazards include operational disruptions due to data breaches and harm to brands. This research was aimed at comprehending the strategic risk management within the realm of outsourced processes with the intention of geopolitical and cybersecurity obstacles. The study sought to establish a framework that will help organizations to improve their risk management practices within the context of outsourcing. The study employed qualitative and quantitative methods to examine the operational, financial, geopolitical, and cybersecurity hazards of outsourcing. The qualitative component included in-depth interviews with key stakeholders in outsourcing and the quantitative component included surveys. The thematic analysis and inferential statistics indicated a strong association between geopolitical factors, cybersecurity threats, and strategic risk management. The recommends an inclusion of the geopolitical risk assessment as an integral part of strategic planning in the outsourcing practice. Also, the study recommends enhancement of cybersecurity processes to avert financial and operational risk.
Este estudo tem o objetivo de identificar os principais riscos avaliados na precificação de projetos de construção. A abordagem adotada é qualitativa através de um estudo de caso do Terminal Portuário 2 (T2) do Porto do Açu (São João da Barra, RJ) usando a triangulação de dados (entrevistas, análise de documentos e observações). Com uma relação de 28 tipos de riscos divididos em 3 níveis, foi possível detectar que somente 3 riscos ultrapassaram 90% de aplicabilidade na precificação ou na mitigação dos riscos, são eles: câmbio e conversibilidade; inflação e taxas de juros; e superação de custos. O estudo oferece uma melhor compreensão da necessidade de avaliação e identificação dos riscos no momento da precificação de projetos de infraestrutura na construção civil para preservar a integridade da execução de um projeto. Contribui-se assim com a avaliação de riscos e composição da precificação no segmento de construção civil, com forte tendência de crescimento no mercado brasileiro.
Purpose
This paper explores how risks are managed in project practice beyond formalized risk management processes by applying the lens of actuality research to project risk management.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper follows a qualitative multimethod research approach utilizing literature review, interviews, observations and document analysis. The paper is based on three case studies and one interview study in project organizations facing green transition challenges.
Findings
Little work exists to reveal how risk management is actually done by project practitioners, and why. Few studies report on contextual variation and consider confounding factors beyond a “one size fits all” formalized explicit risk management process, despite ample evidence that risks are managed outside the formal process. The study documents that informal and/or implicit risk management activities add significantly more value.
Originality/value
The paper contributes a literature review of research into the actuality of project risk management, a sense-making framework of how risks are managed in practice beyond the formal, explicit risk-management process by including informal and/or implicit risk management activities, an empirical study of risk-management practice highlighting that informal and/or implicit risk-management activities dominate in practice, a discussion of why risks are managed outside formalized, explicit process and a research agenda to enable the design of impactful project risk-management practices.
The focus of this treatise is on the relationship that exists between Project Management Practices carried out by Project Management Organizations on project performance. Two organizations tangled in the management of projects were carefully chosen as project management organizations for the treatise. These are 'GET Fund' group and 'Common Fund' body. Three criteria for evaluating project performance were recognized for their extensive application in project management description and general understanding amongst practitioners. These comprise: time, cost and quality criteria. Structured interviews were carried out within the selected organizations for identification of practices undertaken in the management of evaluating projects. Other momentous project management practices were also captured in relevant literature. Structured questionnaire was established to gather information for evaluating of the project performance and determination of project management practices significantly relating to project performance. Performance indices were adopted for the evaluation of the time, cost and quality performance. To test for significant differences between the performances of the categories of projects, each belonging to one organization, the pair-wise analysis, using independent t-tests, was used. Multiple regression Analysis has been used to determine the relationship between the significant project management practices on evaluating performance. Substantially, significant difference between the time performances of the categories of projects was observed. There was significant cost performance difference of the categories of projects across all the organizations whilst there was no significant difference in quality performance across all the three pairs of categories of projects analyzed. It was recognized that as significant difference exists between the performances of a given pair of categories of projects from organization to organization the corresponding significant project management practices also vary from organization to organization and vice versa. 1.0 INTRODUCTION This research work focuses on the impact of project management practices on evaluating project performance with a spotlight on two organizations (Ghana education trust fund and district assembly common fund). The drive of this treatise is to; ascertain the project management practices carried out within project management organizations that influence project performance. It is the belief of the researcher that the findings of this treatise will be beneficial to management and those who've been task with project management within Get fund and District assembly common fund since they will appreciate the concept and come up with ways on how to make good use of project management practices in order to achieve quality performance with regards to building projects. The findings and study recommendations are not limited to these two organizations but any other organization, policy makers or a government which sees value in it. For researchers and scholars, this treatise will also contribute to the existing body of knowledge regarding project management practices and building project performance. Furthermore, with the information that project management managed by one organization differs significantly from similar ones managed by another organization, and that is influenced by variations in project management practices carried out. In the long run organizations involved in project management in the country would have enhance quality of project management practices.
Projects continue to fail at an astounding rate regardless of the type of project, or the industry from which they originate, wasting billions of dollars each year. Several studies have been conducted to demonstrate the value of project management in developing countries including Ghana but very few literatures on project management practices are in Ghana, hence, this study sought to examine project management practices in the public sector organization in Ghana. This study adopted a case study design which used quantitative approach to collect data on the project management practices in the public sector in Ghana. The study focused on the Ghana Water Company Limited with operations in Nsawam. Only primary (questionnaire) data was employed for the study. The primary data was analyzed descriptively on one end and proportionally on another end. In analyzing the factors that influence project management compliance and project management practices, descriptive statistics was used. The results revealed that the institution has a project management unit and the unit has been in existence for more than 10 years and all projects are government based. Also, it was established that GWCL have adopted project management strategies such as total quality management, managing new technologies, training and development, environmental, health and safety attributes. The study revealed that factors such as financial factors, managerial factors, and technological factors affected GWCL compliance with the project management practices. The study concludes that there are some weaknesses in the project management practices in GWCL but can be minimized through transparency and accountability. This study recommends for the project unit of GWCL to continue to educate all key actors in the conduct of their activities in a professional way.
Worldwide transport projects repeatedly exceed their budgets. This problem has received widespread attention over several decades, with little progress made to improve project cost performance. Consequently, this has led to the emergence of the following recurring question: How can public agencies responsible for delivering transport projects improve the estimation accuracy of their actual construction costs? We use the metaphor of the Sisyphean task to assist us in suggesting that the conflation of risk and uncertainty results in an inability to estimate project actual construction costs accurately. Ambiguity aversion, an illusion of certainty, and the repeated occurrence of cost deviations, as demonstrated by our illustrative example and analysis of the elemental cost models of 39 transport projects, collectively create a Sisyphean that is impossible to break. Thus, we question the prevailing conceptualization and treatment of risk and uncertainty used to estimate the actual construction costs of projects. We offer a new theoretical lens framed around ecologically rational heuristics and provide suggestions to reconceptualize and recalibrate the treatment and assessment of uncertainty in cost estimates. We hope this paper provides a much-needed circuit breaker to public agencies’ prevailing treatment of risk and uncertainty and stimulates new lines of inquiry to improve the cost performance of transport projects.
This paper aims to provide a conceptual framework around the concept of ignorance organizational and perspective historical and types and its administration, and characterized this paper introduced a new concept upset concepts of knowledge management in the future upside down in an economy of knowledge and learning organizations, and was the most
prominent findings of the paper that the importance of ignorance more than the importance of knowledge and that the benefits of the administration of ignorance be greater than the benefits of knowledge management, and must develop the concept of organizational ignorance in term of administrative Sciences and attention from the subject departments. The paper concluded a set of proposals.
Le marketing non conventionnel représente un ensemble d’approches alternatives tendant à renouveler la communication des entreprises et des organisations. Dans cet ensemble, les actions dites de street marketing semblent particulièrement adaptées pour toucher une cible précise de consommateurs lors de leurs déplacements urbains. Cependant, ces actions de marketing de rue confrontent les agences et les annonceurs à un risque inédit, la mobilisation du bien commun à des fins de communication n’étant pas sans poser des problèmes règlementaires. Sur la base d’une recherche menée avec 8 annonceurs et 10 agences, cet article met en évidence les pratiques transgressives des entreprises face à la réglementation française, articule les trois grandes dimensions d’une décision de transgression pour agences et annonceurs et détaille les façons de contourner la règle et/ou de gérer la transgression à la règle.
چابکی سازمان یکی از مفاهیم مدیریت مرتبط با رقابت، فعالیتهای کسبوکار و ساختارهای
شرکت در قرن بیستویک مطرح است. چابکی شرکتها در کنار سایر تئوریهای مدیریت در موفقیت
شرکتها در محیط متلاطم بازار اساسی است. در این راستا قابلیتهای فناوری اطلاعات از چابکی
سازمان پشتیبانی کرده و نقش اساسی در درک و واکنش نسبت به محیط دارند. این تحقیق بدنبال
بررسی تاثیر قابلیتهای فناوری اطلاعات در تسریع چابکی سازمان در بخش خدمات در حوزه
بانکداری است، بنابراین این تحقیق از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر اجرا، تحلیلی- توصیفی میباشد.
جامعۀ آماری این تحقیق شامل کلیه کارکنان بانک ملی در استان اردبیل به تعداد 600 نفر میباشد.
روش نمونهگیری در این تحقیق بصورت تصادفی بوده و از طریق فرمول کوکران به تعداد 250 نفر
بهعنوان نمونه در نظر گرفته شده است. نتایج حاصله از تحلیل داده نشان میدهد که چهار قابلیت
معماری، زیرساخت، منابع انسانی و منابع ارتباطی ابعاد تشکیل دهنده قابلیت فناوری اطلاعات و نیز
سه عامل حسگری، پاسخگویی و یادگیری ابعاد تشکیل دهنده چابکی سازمانی است و بررسی
رابطه از طریق آزمون همبستگی و تحلیل مسیر نشان میدهد که رابطه معناداری بین قابلیتهای
فناوری اطلاعات با چابکی سازمان در حوزه بانکداری برقرار است.
This study sets out to examine how the effects of ignorance and the unknown in project settings can be overcome through project manager (practitioner) improvisation. Data are obtained from 389 project management practitioners drawn from a range of public, private, and semi-government entities/organizations within the emirate of Sharjah (United Arab Emirates). Sampling is undertaking using an 11 factor ‘ignorance–unknown–improvisation’-focused questionnaire developed from the literature. The variables considered as moderators include ‘self-efficacy’, ‘behavioral integration’, ‘experience’, ‘teamwork quality’, ‘real-time information’, ‘communication’, ‘memory’, ‘knowledge creation’, ‘knowledge sharing’, ‘utilization of documented knowledge’, and ‘age’. Analysis of the data is via Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS). The findings of the study suggest the existence of four variables (‘experience’, ‘teamwork quality’, ‘memory’, and ‘age’) that serve to influence the improvisation-based practices that project management practitioners/managers are likely to employ when seeking to overcome the effects of ignorance and the unknown in projects. The findings from the study do facilitate the development of an improvisation-awareness typology that is leaning towards facilitating project management practitioner efficacy as relates to improvisation.
The identification of plausible desirable and undesirable future events is fundamentally a cognitive process of prospecting possible futures. Yet, organizational practices designed for the identification and management of these uncertain futures, specifically project risk management, heed little attention to the role of cognition in these processes. Building on the theory of ‘pragmatic prospection’, we address this gap and examine the cognitive processes involved in prospection of desirable vs. undesirable project futures while identifying opportunities vs. risks. Empirically, we analyse the information search behaviour and post-hoc search verbalization in an experimental project risk and opportunity identification task. We find that risk identification relies often on simpler approaches with lower cognitive load, while opportunities triggered more explicit information search strategies and were more prone to evoke agency within the imagined futures. These findings challenge the assumption – widely held in risk management practice – that risks and opportunities can be approached by the same processes. We conclude with an outlook on how a better understanding of the involved cognitive processes can support foresight activities in project planning and beyond.
Abstract: The high levels of uncertainty and complexity inherent in building projects make risk management essential. The purpose of this article is to summaries and analyze the relevant literature in order to present a broad overview of the current state of the art in risk management strategies for building projects. This article starts out with defining risk and elaborating on why it's so crucial to building projects that they be managed properly. It then moves on to talk about the many construction project risks, such as those that can arise from the project's technical, financial, legal, and environmental aspects. Risk identification, assessment, mitigation, and monitoring are only some of the processes and strategies that are discussed in this article as they related to construction project management.
Index Terms - Risk Management, Construction Project, Technical Risk, Financial Risk, Legal Risk, Environmental Risk.
The increasing size and complexity of acquisition and development projects in both the public and private sectors have begun to exceed the capabilities of traditional management techniques to control them. With every new technological development or engineering feat, human endeavours inevitably increase in their complexity and ambition. This trend has led to an explosion in the size and sophistication of projects by government and private industry to develop and acquire technology-based systems. These systems are characterised by the often unpredictable interaction of people, organisations, and hardware. This complexity has imposed a complementary rise in the level of adverse events, particularly in acquisition projects, that I often difficult to identify, analyse, and manage. Indeed, managing the risk associated with the acquisition of large-scale technology-based systems has become a challenging task. Such risks cost overrun, time delay in project completion, and not meeting a project’s performance criteria. This paper presents the scientifical results regarding to principles and guidelines necessary to conduct risk management in an adaptable and repeatable framework, showing the tools and method developed in the course of conducting risk management on many different projects.
Averaging estimates is an effective way to improve accuracy when combining expert judgments, integrating group members' judgments, or using advice to modify personal judgments. If the estimates of two judges ever fall on different sides of the truth, which we term bracketing, averaging must outperform the average judge for convex loss functions, such as mean absolute deviation (MAD). We hypothesized that people often hold incorrect beliefs about averaging, falsely concluding that the average of two judges' estimates would be no more accurate than the average judge. The experiments confirmed that this misconception was common across a range of tasks that involved reasoning from summary data (Experiment 1), from specific instances (Experiment 2), and conceptually (Experiment 3). However, this misconception decreased as observed or assumed bracketing rate increased (all three studies) and when bracketing was made more transparent (Experiment 2). Experiment 4 showed that flawed inferential rules and poor extensional reasoning abilities contributed to the misconception. We conclude by describing how people may face few opportunities to learn the benefits of averaging and how misappreciating averaging contributes to poor intuitive strategies for combining estimates.
Studies of risk perception examine the judgements people make when they are asked to characterize and evaluate hazardous activities
and technologies. This research aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by providing a basis for understanding and anticipating
public responses to hazards and improving the communication of risk information among lay people, technical experts, and decision-makers.
This work assumes that those who promote and regulate health and safety need to understand how people think about and respond
to risk. Without such understanding, well-intended policies may be ineffective.
This 1999 book presents a variety of exciting perspectives on the perception of risk and the strategies that people adopt to cope with it. Using the framework of recent social and cultural theory, it reflects the fact that risk has become integral to contemporary understandings of selfhood, the body and social relations, and is central to the work of writers such as Douglas, Beck, Giddens and the Foucauldian theorists. The contributors are all leading scholars in the fields of sociology, cultural and media studies and cultural anthropology. Combining empirical analyses with metatheoretical critiques, they tackle an unusually diverse range of topics including drug use, risk in the workplace, fear of crime and the media, risk and pregnant embodiment, the social construction of danger in childhood, anxieties about national identity, the governmental uses of risk and the relationship between risk phenomena and social order.
The risk response development phase is a major phase in the project risk management process. We present a model that integrates project work contents, risk events, and risk reduction actions and their effects into a comprehensive framework. The model allows the representation of the overlapping effects of multiple risk reduction actions and of the impacts of secondary risk events, and supports the evaluation of the total risk exposure of the project under various combinations of risk reduction actions. The model can be treated with optimisation techniques in order to generate the most cost-effective combination of risk reduction actions. In this work we describe the model, outline a solution procedure and illustrate its application with an example taken from the software industry.
This paper considers the institutional factors that shape regulatory officials' perceptions of risks to human health and safety and their attitudes towards associated regulation. In particular, the paper considers the extent to which the perceptions of risk and regulation of officials responsible for monitoring and enforcement are aligned with regulatory requirements, and, if not, what factors explain those perceptions. Moreover, the paper considers the impact of officials' perceptions and attitudes on policy processes and outcomes. Empirically, the paper considers three UK risk regulation regimes: occupational exposure to radon, chemical migration from plastics food packaging and BSE related controls on specified bovine offal. Analysis of those cases suggests that conventional accounts that contrast 'rational' bureaucratic expertise against 'irrational' lay perspectives can miss the institutional 'irrationalities' that shape officials' perceptions of risk and associated behaviour. In particular, the paper suggests that complex risk regulation regimes are vulnerable to a phenomenon of 'institutional attenuation'. That term refers to institutional processes that serve to diminish inspectors' perceptions or awareness of a risk, and/or diminish inspectors' perceptions of the policy importance of associated regulations. Furthermore, the paper shows how such institutional attenuation can contribute to ineffective monitoring and enforcement of some risk regulation regimes.
Averaging estimates is an effective way to improve accuracy when combining expert judgments, integrating group members' judgments, or using advice to modify personal judgments. If the estimates of two judges ever fall on different sides of the truth, which we term bracketing, averaging must outperform the average judge for convex loss functions, such as mean absolute deviation (MAD). We hypothesized that people often hold incorrect beliefs about averaging, falsely concluding that the average of two judges' estimates would be no more accurate than the average judge. The experiments confirmed that this misconception was common across a range of tasks that involved reasoning from summary data (Experiment 1), from specific instances (Experiment 2), and conceptually (Experiment 3). However, this misconception decreased as observed or assumed bracketing rate increased (all three studies) and when bracketing was made more transparent (Experiment 2). Experiment 4 showed that flawed inferential rules and poor extensional reasoning abilities contributed to the misconception. We conclude by describing how people may face few opportunities to learn the benefits of averaging and how misappreciating averaging contributes to poor intuitive strategies for combining estimates.
The Project Management Institute’s Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) underpins many initiatives to improve project management practice. It is widely used for training and underpins the development of competency standards. Because of its fundamental importance, the PMBOK should be critically reviewed.This paper agues for an expansion of the PMBOK Guide’s risk management knowledge area to include a wider perspective of incomplete knowledge.The PMBOK Guide deals with uncertainty through the traditional use of probability theory, however the underpinning assumptions of probability theory do not always apply in practice. Furthermore, probability-based risk management theory does not explain important aspects of observed project management practice.This paper discusses an expanded framework of incomplete knowledge, including: an expanded concept of uncertainty that acknowledges ignorance or surprise, where there is no prior knowledge of future states; imprecision arising from ambiguity (fuzziness) in project parameters and future states; and, human limitations in information processing. The paper shows the expanded framework explains observed project-management practice more thoroughly than the probability-based framework. The conclusion reached is that “management of incomplete knowledge” provides a better theoretical foundation for improving project management practice.To substantiate this, a promising new approach based on “real options” is also discussed.
Despite decades of experimental social dilemma research, "theoretical integration has proven elusive" (Smithson & Foddy, 1999, p. 14). To advance a theory of decision making in social dilemmas, this article provides a conceptual review of the literature that applies a "logic of appropriateness" (March, 1994) framework. The appropriateness framework suggests that people making decisions ask themselves (explicitly or implicitly), "What does a person like me do in a situation like this? " This question identifies 3 significant factors: recognition and classification of the kind of situation encountered, the identity of the individual making the decision, and the application of rules or heuristics in guiding behavioral choice. In contrast with dominant rational choice models, the appropriateness framework proposed accommodates the inherently social nature of social dilemmas, and the role of rule and heuristic based processing. Implications for the interpretation of past findings and the direction of future research are discussed.
Many contemporary theorists have stressed the importance of imperfect information for rational choice. However, they have not generally distinguished between two quite different notions of imperfect information. This paper compares and contrasts the search and ignorance conceptions of imperfect information, noting differences in their implications for market activity, welfare economics, and for the accumulation of knowledge. The analysis suggests that conventional probabilistic characterization of imperfect information can not fully capture the effects of imperfect knowledge on rational decision making nor on market activity. Ignorance must also be taken account of.
There has been much prescriptive work in project management, exemplified in various "Bodies of Knowledge". However, experience shows some projects overspending considerably. Recently, systemic modeling research into the behavior of large projects explains project oversponds by "systemic" effects and the (sometimes counterintuitive) effect of management actions. However, while this work is becoming more widely known, embedding the lessons in project-management practice is not straightforward. The current prescriptive dominant discourse of project management contains implicit underlying assumptions with which the systemic modeling work clashes, indeed showing how conventional methods can exacerbate rather than alleviate project problems. Exploration of this modeling suggests that for projects that are complex, uncertain, and time-limited, conventional methods might be inappropriate, and aspects of newer methodologies in which the project "emerges" rather than being fully preplanned might be more appropriate. Some of the current literature on project-classification schemes also suggests similar parameters, without the rationale that the systemic modeling provides, thus providing useful backup to this analysis. The eventual aim of this line of work is to enable project managers to choose effective ways to manage projects based on understanding and model-based theory.
Every organisation must find the right balance between opportunities and threats in managing its risks. M_o_R takes a best practice approach, which offers a structured and effective framework for risk management. Its aim is to help organisations to achieve their objectives by first identifying the risks, and then choosing the right response to the threats and opportunities that are created by uncertainty. This publication is invaluable across all organisational activities from strategic, programme, project or operational perspectives.
Providing a route map for risk management, M_o_R brings together key principles, a recommended approach, a set of inter-related processes and pointers to more detailed sources of advice on risk management techniques and specialisms. It also shows how the guidance should be embedded, reviewed and applied differently depending on the nature of the objectives at risk.
The 2007 edition is a major refresh of the M_o_R guidance written in 2002. The framework has been strengthened in the following areas:
Corporate governance and internal control – reflects advice from the Turnbull report and covers the new regulatory regimes in the UK, Europe and the US.
M_o_R Principles – expanded to reflect the requirements of corporate governance and internal control and the growing interest in continual improvement and organisational maturity.
M_o_R Framework – the 2002 edition makes reference to this in both the Principle Chapters and the Process Chapter. In this edition the guidance is greatly expanded through a brand new chapter on this topic.
M_o_R Process – updated and expanded to reflect current thinking, changes made to the HM Treasury Orange Book, and the relationship between these and M_o_R Principles and Framework.
Embedding and reviewing M_o_R – expands the guidance within the 2002 edition to show how M_o_R can be successfully introduced into an organisation.
M_o_R Perspectives – with a clear focus on successful business change, considers the different aspects of risk management within an organisation from strategy, programme, project and operational perspectives.
Appendices – six key topics now replace 11 appendices: Risk Management Techniques; Document Outlines; Health check: the use of Maturity Models; Risk Specialism; Selecting Tools to support risk management.
Glossary – updated to reflect common language used across M_o_R PRINCE2 and MSP and aligned with BSI's emerging Risk Standard.
A software product and process is developed to help engineers and engineering management understand, prioritize and manage risks. Active Risk Manager is a web portal used to identify, assess, and manage risk through integration with existing requirements analysis and planning tools. The strategic thought product vision is called Closed-Loop Risk Management. Several benefits have resulted from the use of the software, including the amount of time saved in reporting across multiple projects.
This article argues that all current project risk management processes induce a restricted focus on the management of project uncertainty, because the term 'risk' encourages a threat perspective. The article discusses the reasons for this view, and argues that a focus on "uncertainty" rather than risk could enhance project risk management, in terms of designing desirable futures and planning how to achieve them. Current comprehensive project risk management processes are compatible with a focus on uncertainty, but warrant some modification to reflect a more helpful "uncertainty management" paradigm.
Using the general theory of trust in inter-organisational relations, this paper discusses factors that influence development of trust and co-operation in client–contractor relationships in construction projects. Formal contractual rules are found to bring about and legitimise behaviours and strategies at odds with common-sense perceptions as to how trustworthy and co-operative exchange partners should act. Contractual incentives and close monitoring of contractor performance may induce opportunism and start vicious circles, and it is argued that a higher level of trust would improve project performance. Partnering practices are found to have considerable potential in influencing the antecedents of trust and creative teamwork.
Attribute information is not always readily available to consumers. This is especially true for ethical attributes, such as labor practices, environmental friendliness, and so forth. Intuitively, it might be expected that consumers who would use an attribute in their decision making should seek attribute information, especially if it is easily obtainable. In three studies, the authors measure discrepancies between requests for available ethical attribute information and actual use of the same attribute in a conjoint task. In both between-subjects and within-subjects designs, the authors show that consumers (1) underrequest ethical attribute information and (2) are especially likely to show request/use inconsistency if they care about the underlying ethical issue. Negative emotions, especially the avoidance of anger, appear to drive this willful ignorance. These results add to the growing literature on avoidance mechanisms and consumer decision making and may shed light on when ethical attributes do (and do not) play a role in actual purchase behavior.
The use of risk management as a response to ‘strategic’ organizational uncertainties is investigated. The deconstruction of uncertainties to rationalized probabilities is argued to be symptomatic of a specific conceptualization of problems as ‘tame’, a narrow epistemology that fails to account fully for organizational experience. By introducing ‘messes’ and ‘wicked problems’, a new mode of rhetorical, allegorical risk management is argued for. Insights from Machiavelli and psychoanalysis provide frameworks by which this can be achieved.
In this article we contend that trust can be conceptualized as four distinct and ordered forms - shallow dependence, shallow interdependence, deep dependence, and deep interdependence - determined by the nature of the interdependence between trusting parties. We argue that both the risks that trusting parties assume and the mechanisms for mitigating those risks emerge as a function of the form of interdependence in the relationship. By reviewing research in which trust is a central component, we illustrate the elements of this model and examine its implications.
This book presents a disciplined, qualitative exploration of case study methods by drawing from naturalistic, holistic, ethnographic, phenomenological and biographic research methods. Robert E. Stake uses and annotates an actual case study to answer such questions as: How is the case selected? How do you select the case which will maximize what can be learned? How can what is learned from one case be applied to another? How can what is learned from a case be interpreted? In addition, the book covers: the differences between quantitative and qualitative approaches; data-gathering including document review; coding, sorting and pattern analysis; the roles of the researcher; triangulation; and reporting.
Explores the thesis that the techniques of risk analysis are necessary but in themselves insufficient components of the management of risk process. Begins by exploring the debate about risk. Proposes a definition of risk analysis, suggesting that the term refers to the sum of risk identification, estimation and evaluation. Takes the three component headings as the frameworks. Within each framework, gives an overview followed by an outline of the more common and important techniques. Discusses the issues of sufficiency and draws conclusions. Refers to the decision making techniques of risk management and sets out the overall conclusions substantiating the thesis.
A key tool in the modern analysis of policy is benefit-cost analysis. The underlying theory is that of notion of economic surplus. Without going into technical details, the essential steps in the actual calculation of a surplus depend on using choices made in one context to infer choices that might be made in different contexts. If we find how much individuals are willing to pay to reduce time spent in going to work by one method,. e.g., buying automobiles or moving closer to work, we infer that another method of achieving the same saving of time, e.g., mass transit or wider roads, will be worth the same amount. Frequently, indeed, we extrapolate, or interpolate; if it can be shown that the average individual will pay 500.
It has long been recognized that one of the most important tasks for any organization to cope with is uncertainties. However, uncertainty in the business environment has still been the main cause of failure in industry. The paper investigates the role of postponement in the management of uncertainty. The concept of postponement is developed to include product development postponement, purchasing postponement, production postponement and logistics postponement. These postponement strategies are all presented to cope with different levels of uncertainty. Finally, conclusions are drawn and some remarks about further research are made.
Recently Kasperson et al.(6) have proposed a conceptual framework, “The Social Amplification of Risk,” as a beginning step in developing a comprehensive theory of public experience of risk. A central goal of their effort is to systematically link technical assessments of risk with the growing findings from social scientific research. A key and growing domain of public risk experience is “desired” risk, but this is virtually neglected in the framework. This paper evaluates the scope of the “Social Amplification of Risk Framework,” asking whether it is applicable to desired risks, such as risk recreation (hang gliding, mountain climbing, and so forth). The analysis is supportive of the framework's applicability to the domain of desired risk.
There is more information we don't know than we do know for making most critical decisions involving risks. Our focus must be on understanding and effectively dealing with what we don't know. As a first step in achieving this focus, a classification of the types of uncertainties that must be addressed and the sources of these types of uncertainties is presented. The purpose is to provide a framework for discussion about addressing uncertainty, particularly in risk analyses.
Both uncertainty and variability of information are addressed using four main classes:
Metrical uncertainty and variability in measurement,
Structural uncertainty due to complexity, including models and their validation,
Temporal uncertainty in future and past states
Translational uncertainty in explaining uncertain results.
The factors that contribute uncertainty and error to these classes are identified, and their interrelationships indicated. Both subjective and objective aspects are addressed.
This paper extends prior research by jointly assessing the roles of risk attitude and tolerance for ambiguity in predicting choice. An experiment examined the effects of these variables on decisions made in four different scenarios. The four scenarios (treatment combinations) were generated by manipulating risk and ambiguity into two levels (high and low). The context was defined in terms of a sample size selection problem. The second issue explored was the effect of attitudes toward risk and ambiguity on decision confidence.
The results indicate that (1) both risk attitude and ambiguity intolerance determined choice behavior, (2) the roles of these individual attitudes depend on the levels of the two treatment variables of risk and ambiguity, (3) the presence of ambiguity accentuates the perception of risk in individual subjects, and (4) decision makers who are less risk averse, and have more tolerance for ambiguity, display greater confidence in their choice. The paper discusses some of the managerial implications of the results.
Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and overt conflict have become pervasive. Risk-perception research has recently begun to provide a new perspective on this problem. Distrust in risk analysis and risk management plays a central role in this perspective. According to this view, the conflicts and controversies surrounding risk management are not due to public ignorance or irrationality but, instead, are seen as a side effect of our remarkable form of participatory democracy, amplified by powerful technological and social changes that systematically destroy trust. Recognizing the importance of trust and understanding the “dynamics of the system” that destroys trust has vast implications for how we approach risk management in the future.
Risk management is placed in the context of recent social theory, recognizing the emerging chaos that is inherent in post-industrial life. The declining performance of the insurance industry is cited as evidence of the dynamic changes in society. Two risk management paradigms, “reactive” and “holistic”, are described and contrasted. An outline model of the second is presented and linked with elements of recent research in risk management. The paper then presents a discussion of this new paradigm in relation to key issues in the future of risk management.
This investigation examines end-user judgment and evaluation behavior during information retrieval (IR) system interactions and extends previous research surrounding relevance as a key construct for representing the value end-users ascribe to items retrieved from IR systems. A self-reporting instrument collected evaluative responses from 32 end-users related to 1432 retrieved items in relation to five characteristics of each item: (1) whether it was on topic, (2) whether it was meaningful to the user, (3) whether it was useful in relation to the problem at hand, (4) whether the IR system returned the information in the right form or format, and (5) whether the information retrieved allowed the user to take further action on it. The manner in which these characteristics of the retrieved items were considered, differentiated and aggregated were examined in relation to the region of relevance attributed to those items by the users.The nominal nature of the data collected led to non-parametric statistical analyses that indicated that end-user evaluation of retrieved items to resolve an information problem at hand is most likely a multi-stage process. While end-users may differ in their judgments and evaluations of retrieved items, they appear to make those decisions by using somewhat consistent heuristic approaches that point to a predictive multi-stage model of relevance thresholds that exist on a continuum from topic to meaning (pertinence) to functionality (use).
Risk management is one of the key project management processes. Numerous tools are available to support the various phases of the risk management process. We present the results of a study designed to identify the tools that are most widely used and those that are associated with successful project management in general, and with effective project risk management in particular. The study is based on a questionnaire administered to a sample of project managers from the software and high-tech industries. The response data was analyzed in order to find which tools are more likely to be used in those organizations that report better project management performance and in those that value the contribution of risk management processes.
In 1961, Daniel Ellsberg used the following choice problem to demonstrate that expressions of uncertainty are not totally captured by the concept of “probability.” Imagine two urns, each containing red and black balls. Although it is known that Urn 1 contains 100 balls, the proportions of red and black balls are unknown. Urn 2, on the other hand, contains 50 red and 50 black balls. Furthermore, imagine that you can win $100 by naming the appropriate color (red or black) of a ball to be drawn at random from Urn 1. Would you bet on red, black, or be indifferent between the two? What would your answer be if the drawing were to be made from Urn 2?
Risk perception researchers have observed a "negativity bias" for hazard-related information. Messages indicating the presence of risk seem to be trusted more than messages indicating the absence of risk, and risk perceptions seem more affected by negative than positive information. Two experiments were conducted to examine alternative explanations of this finding within the area of food additives. Study 1 (N = 235) extended earlier work by (a) unconfounding message valence (positive or negative) from message extremity (definite or null finding) and (b) exploring the role of prior attitudes. Results suggested that negative/risky messages were indeed trusted more even when extremity was taken into account. However, prior attitudes significantly moderated the effect of message valence on trust. Positive messages were distrusted only by those with negative prior attitudes. Study 2 (N = 252), further explored the role of prior attitudes and extended the work by examining reactions to risky messages about a positively viewed additive--a vitamin. The results again found a moderating effect of prior attitudes on message valence. Participants had greater confidence in messages that were more congruent with their prior attitudes, irrespective of valence. Furthermore, positive messages had a greater impact on risk perception than negative messages. These findings suggest that greater trust in negative messages about hazards may be a product of a "confirmatory" rather than a "negativity" bias.
This article investigates possible differential levels of trust in government regulation across five different risk contexts and the relationship between a number of concepts that might be thought of as comprising distinctive "dimensions" of trust. It appeared that how people perceive government and its policies toward risk regulation was surprisingly similar for each of the five risk cases. A principal-component analysis showed that the various trust items could best be described by two dimensions: a general trust dimension, which was concerned with a wide range of trust-relevant aspects, such as competence, care, fairness, and openness, and a scepticism component that reflects a sceptical view regarding how risk policies are brought about and enacted. Again, the results were surprisingly similar across the five risk cases, as the same solution was found in each of the different samples. It was also examined whether value similarity has an additional value in predicting trust in risk regulation, compared to the more conventional aspects of trust. Based on the two independent trust factors that were found in this study, a typology of trust is proposed that ranges from full trust to a deep type of distrust. It is argued that for a functioning society it could well be more suitable to have critical but involved citizens in many situations.
Injury prevention efforts often focus on reducing the risk of potentially dangerous activities, facilities or equipment, such as diving, swimming pools or flotation devices. This paper aims to clarify the concepts of risk assessment and risk perception. Statistically, risk denotes the probability of an untoward event, often expressed in terms of potential financial loss. Subjectively, though, risk denotes an individual's perception of the likelihood and the seriousness of an undesirable event. Individual perception appears to be strongly influenced by personal traits and socio-cultural parameters. Risk assessment helps to form the basis for public health interventions. The implementation and effectiveness of these are influenced by individual risk perception. Therefore, preventive efforts need to incorporate and hopefully influence the determinants of risk perception among the target populations. Considering drowning, both hazard and incidence of submersion injuries are underestimated, whereas treatment options are usually overestimated. Consequently, individual risk alertness needs to be improved--drowning remains a ubiquitous risk.
We develop a new version of prospect theory that employs cumulative rather than separable decision weights and extends the theory in several respects. This version, called cumulative prospect theory, applies to uncertain as well as to risky prospects with any number of outcomes, and it allows different weighting functions for gains and for losses. Two principles, diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion, are invoked to explain the characteristic curvature of the value function and the weighting functions. A review of the experimental evidence and the results of a new experiment confirm a distinctive fourfold pattern of risk: risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses of high probability; risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses of low probability. Copyright 1992 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
We investigate the relation between judgments of probability and preferences between bets. A series of experiments provides support for the competence hypothesis that people prefer betting on their own judgment over an equiprobable chance event when they consider themselves knowledgeable, but not otherwise. They even pay a significant premium to bet on their judgments. These data cannot be explained by aversion to ambiguity, because judgmental probabilities are more ambiguous than change events. We interpret the results in terms of the attribution of credit and blame. The possibility of inferring beliefs from preferences is questioned. Copyright 1991 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
In everyday life we make intuitive decisions without consciously attributing either quantitative or qualitative values to the risks involved. But in public policy and the deployment of modem technology, decisions need to be more 'objectively' informed, and for this risk analysis is used. The purpose of this article is to show the subjectivity in the process of risk analysis. This is not intended as a destructive dissection, for a major benefit of risk analysis is its subjectivity-its requirement for thought and judgement. It should not be the mere application of a set of rules. However, where subjectivity is arbitrary and could be reduced, or where its better understanding could improve accuracy, its exposure could be beneficial. Understanding their own subjectivity and scope for error could lead risk analysts to recognise their assumptions and consider more fully the confidence that they can reasonably have in their results. It could also lead to research into the processes and techniques of risk analysis. The first in a series of articles on the subject, this article addresses the overall process of risk analysis.
Risk as analysis and risk as feelings
- P Slovic
- M L Finucane
- E Peters
- D G Macgregor
P. Slovic, M. L. Finucane, E. Peters and D. G. MacGregor, "Risk as analysis and risk as
feelings," Decision Research, Eugene, 2002.
Ignorance and Uncertainty
- M Smithson
M. Smithson, Ignorance and Uncertainty. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1989,