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Tulipomania: The Story of the World''s Most Coveted Flower and the Extraordinary Passions it Aroused

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... In 1703, Sultan Ahmed III came to power in the Ottoman Empire, bringing with him his adoration, or, more accurately, his obsession with the tulip. Although the tulip had been favored as a flower in the earlier years of the Ottoman Empire, it was during Ahmed's reign from 1703 to 1730 that "tulipomania" took hold, much as it had the world round (see Dash 1999). In later years, Turkish historian Ahmed Refik named Sultan Ahmed III's reign the Lale Devri, or the Tulip Period (also, the Tulip Era or the Reign of the Tulip) (Lewis 1971, Kinross 1977, Palmer 1992, Goodwin 1998, Dash 1999. ...
... Although the tulip had been favored as a flower in the earlier years of the Ottoman Empire, it was during Ahmed's reign from 1703 to 1730 that "tulipomania" took hold, much as it had the world round (see Dash 1999). In later years, Turkish historian Ahmed Refik named Sultan Ahmed III's reign the Lale Devri, or the Tulip Period (also, the Tulip Era or the Reign of the Tulip) (Lewis 1971, Kinross 1977, Palmer 1992, Goodwin 1998, Dash 1999. ...
... Colored glass lamps and glass globes filled with colored liquids flickered and shone, their light reflected by mirrors scattered throughout the grounds. And through the flowerbeds trod tortoises (referred to also as turtles), burdened with slow burning candles, candelabras, or small oil lamps atop their shells to illuminate the Ottoman Empire's beloved tulip (Lewis 1971, Kinross 1977, Palmer 1992, Goodwin 1998, Dash 1999). ...
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On December 12, 2004, Ottoman artist Osman Hamdi Bey’s painting, “The Tortoise Trainer,” was auctioned to the Suna-Inan Kiraç Foundation for 5 trillion Turkish lira ($3.5 million). The sale price set a record as the highest price paid for a painting by a Turkish artist and earned the painting no small amount of publicity. Given that “The Tortoise Trainer” has become one of Osman Hamdi’s more popular works, it is perhaps surprising that while a great deal of attention has been concentrated on identifying the painting’s symbolism, little attention has been paid to identifying the historic significance of the painting’s namesake: the Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca ibera Pallas 1814). [ Published in: International Society for the History and Bibliography of Herpetology Newsletter and Bulletin ]
... I do not assume that non-fictional work is more accurate and objective than fictional work because my interest lies in finding out how the tulipomania discourse produces the truth. The examined texts are two non-fictional books (Tulipomania: The Story of the World's Most Coveted Flower and the Extraordinary Passions it Aroused [Dash, 1999] and The Tulip: The Story of a Flower That Has Made Men Mad [Pavord, 1999]), the novel Tulip Fever (Moggach, 1999), the Disney animation The Black Tulip (1996), and the PBS video and website of The Botany of Desire (2009). It should be noted that all three books were published in 1999, but it is unknown what incident led to a concerted interest in tulipomania and whether the three authors were aware of each other's projects (Pavord [1999] and Dash [1999] referenced each other). ...
... The examined texts are two non-fictional books (Tulipomania: The Story of the World's Most Coveted Flower and the Extraordinary Passions it Aroused [Dash, 1999] and The Tulip: The Story of a Flower That Has Made Men Mad [Pavord, 1999]), the novel Tulip Fever (Moggach, 1999), the Disney animation The Black Tulip (1996), and the PBS video and website of The Botany of Desire (2009). It should be noted that all three books were published in 1999, but it is unknown what incident led to a concerted interest in tulipomania and whether the three authors were aware of each other's projects (Pavord [1999] and Dash [1999] referenced each other). More interestingly, the dot-com bust took place in 2000, so the three books appeared to be prophetic of the financial collapse. ...
... Pavord (1999) writes that Sultan Mohmed II (1451-81) built pleasure gardens inside the city's courtyards for tulips. Two hundred years later, Ibrahim 'the Mad' (1640-8) was said to have drowned hundreds of concubines so that replacements could be sought (Dash, 1999). His successor Sultan Ahmed III (1648-87)-according to Pavord-held staged tulip festivals where nightly entertainment took place in the garden where his five wives would make their appearances: 'at the signal from a canon, the doors of the harem were open and the Sultan's mistresses were led out into the garden by eunuchs carrying torches' (p. ...
... An economic bubble usually refers to economic phenomenons that asset prices extremely deviate from their fundamental values [38]. One of the most famous bubbles in history, known as the Dutch Tulip Bubble [12,18], could be traced back to the 1630s. According to P.M. Garber [18], from November 1636 to February 1637, the prices of tulip bulbs had increased about 20 times. ...
... We now consider the density function for X t . Note that for fixed u ∈ R and X t ≤ u, (12) implies ...
Article
We introduce a new diffusion process Xt to describe asset prices within an economic bubble cycle. The main feature of the process, which differs from existing models, is the drift term where a mean-reversion is taken based on an exponential decay of the scaled price. Our study shows the scaling factor on Xt is crucial for modelling economic bubbles as it mitigates the dependence structure between the price and parameters in the model. We prove both the process and its first passage time are well-defined. An efficient calibration scheme, together with the probability density function for the process are given. Moreover, by employing the perturbation technique, we deduce the closed-form density for the downward first passage time, which therefore can be used in estimating the burst time of an economic bubble. The object of this study is to understand the asset price dynamics when a financial bubble is believed to form, and correspondingly provide estimates to the bubble crash time. Calibration examples on the US dot-com bubble and the 2007 Chinese stock market crash verify the effectiveness of the model itself. The example on BitCoin prediction confirms that we can provide meaningful estimate on the downward probability for asset prices.
... Early travelers who brought tulips to Europe were the French botanist and diplomat Pierre Belon (1517Belon ( -1564 (Belon 1553), and the ambassador of the Habsburg emperor in Istanbul, Ogier Ghiselin de Busbecq (1522-1592) (de Busbecq 1595). The tulip mania, a period in which tulip bulbs were sold in absurd high prices, broke out few decades after Carolus Clusius (1526Clusius ( -1609 became the first prefect of the Leiden botanical garden in 1593, where he planted his collection of tulip bulbs (Dash 2011). Because they were so different from other flowers known to Europe at the time, they soon grew in popularity and became a status symbol (Pavord 2019). ...
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Tulipa sylvestris is a tulip species with yellow fragrant flowers that was introduced to Northern Europe from the Mediterranean region in the 16th century. Two and a half centuries later, the plant was described as naturalized and had found its place in and outside many gardens of Europe. Today, it is the only tulip species that grows wild in Northern Europe. Two main routes have been described for the16th-century introduction: one from Italy, around Bologna, and one from France, around Montpellier. We explore the further introduction and naturalization history of T. sylvestris in the Netherlands and Northern Europe in the 17th to the 19th century, providing an overview of mentions in herbaria, florilegia, catalogues, seed lists of botanic gardens, and garden magazines published in this period. We show that both the Italian and the French tulip remained in cultivation in Northern Europe, but also that most sources mention the Italian origin. The French tulip, linked to the subspecies T. sylvestris subsp. australis, is prominent in Scandinavian sources and occasionally appears in sources from the Netherlands, England and the German-speaking area. Furthermore, T. sylvestris was apparently exchanged on a regular basis between botanic gardens in Northern Europe around the second half of the 19th century. Finally, we demonstrate that in Friesland, a province in the north of the Netherlands where T. sylvestris still grows abundantly in historical gardens, many of the current locations coincide with historical and cultural sites, and the design of parks in landscape style in the 18th and 19th century.
... Isso até que flores isoladas começaram a ser vendidas por mais do que o custo de uma casa. Tais fatos fizeram com que historiadores como Mike Dash (1999) e Anne Pavord (2014) chamassem esse momento da história como tulipomania. A demanda por tulipas era tamanha que resultou na criação do primeiro mercado futuro da história, com a venda de títulos de safras seguintes por produtores. ...
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As plantas ornamentais raramente são alvo de estudo em Ciências Sociais, para enfrentar esse problema, foi proposto, além da consideração como um mercado, as categorias de gosto e consumo como centrais para construção dessa agenda de pesquisa. Para isso, mobilizou-se uma revisão bibliográfica sobre os temas do consumo e do gosto, além da consulta sobre a temática das plantas ornamentais na base de dados do SciELO e no Banco de Teses & Dissertações da capes. Sobre o gosto, foi considerado que as plantas ornamentais representariam determinados estilos de vida e sociabilidades. Assim, mensurar o consumo de plantas ornamentais poderia também verificar em que medida existiria uma relação entre economia, estilos de vida e plantas específicas. A partir da mobilização dessas duas categorias, gosto e consumo, demonstrou-se a possibilidade de construir uma agenda de pesquisa que considere as plantas ornamentais como um fenômeno social relevante.
... The way in which sushi or sashimi packages are priced may induce psychological effects similar to the ones driving the tulip crisis in The Netherlands in the seventeenth century (cf. e.g., Dash [1999]), or the collateralized debt obligation crisis more recently. θ π,σ t (x t ) and in all other cases it records 0. ...
Article
Strong rarity value is the phenomenon that an increase in scarcity of a species (of plants or animals) leads to a price increase which more than compensates increased search costs and lower numbers found or caught. Tipping here is a regime shift moving the system into a low resource-level state from which it is impossible to escape unless measures to restore the resource are taken for a long period of time. We engineer a model in which agents wishing to maximize their limiting average rewards have two choices at every stage of the play, restraint or no-restraint (“overfish”). Overfishing damages the resource, causes tipping and induces scarcity which in turn creates rarity value. We find that Pareto-efficient equilibrium outcomes for very patient agents may require substantial overexploitation of the resource inducing serious threats to its sustainability. However, equilibrium behavior yields a sufficiently rich scheme of outcomes that leave room for viable compromises between ecologically and economically maximalistic policies.
... Although our floristic list (Table 2) includes plant species mentioned in the Bible [57] and identified in very old artworks [2,30,58], surprisingly, some common Mediterranean plants, such as Ficus carica L., Laurus nobilis L., Paliurus spina-christi Mill., and Tulipa spp., were not found in the present study. In addition, only plant species from the Orchidaceae family can be considered native to Mediterranean small tree vegetation (maquis) or dry grassland habitats. ...
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The analysis of plants featured in Baroque artworks on the eastern Adriatic coast has not previously been the subject of an in-depth study. The study of plant iconography in Baroque sacred artworks, which are mostly paintings, was carried out in eight churches and monasteries on the Pelješac peninsula in southern Croatia. Taxonomic interpretation of the painted flora on 15 artworks led to the identification of 23 different plant taxa (species or genera) belonging to 17 families. One additional plant was identified only by family taxonomic rank. The number of plants was relatively high, and most species were considered non-native (71%, “exotic” flora) phanerophytes. In terms of geographic origin, the Palaearctic region (Eurasia) and the American continent were identified as the main areas of plant origin. Lilium candidum, Acanthus mollis, and Chrysanthemum cf. morifolium, were the most common species. We think that the plants were selected for decorative and aesthetic reasons, as well as for their symbolic significance.
... These tulips became a fashion craze around the 1630s, referred to as "tulip mania." The individual flowers exhibiting these patterns became desired possessions with sky-rocketing prices despite the findings of botanist Carolus Clusius, which had already shown that these tulips attacked by the virus (tulip breaking virus) are in the process of slow degeneration and unpredictable in cultivation (Dash 2010). Today, we have reminders of these emerged striped tulips from the past in our regular selection of tulips, although today's striped variants are healthy and patiently cultivated by skillful botanists. ...
Chapter
Today’s and tomorrow’s biotechnology developments are opening up many possibilities for modifying organisms, including the development of new visual appearances. Even when the contemporary focus of biotechnology is primarily on the functional side, which is offering us (humans) useful applications in various fields, one cannot help pondering the possibilities for novel aesthetics in organisms’ appearances, but also reasons for making certain choices over others—and what these choices imply. The article focuses on the relationship between kitsch and biological living organisms, especially through investigating the recent practices and growing interest in bioart and biotech arts. These provide relevant examples and include examples from cultural history.In the field of the visual arts and humanities, artists working with biological and biotech arts are at the forefront of understanding with a wide perspective the potentialities and the societal implications of science and technology developments. Artistic projects emerging from biological and biotech arts are often presented with aesthetics adopted from laboratories and scientific experiments; they incorporate petri dishes, glassware, hardware components, and clinical machine parts. Among the numerous artworks with these kinds of typical laboratory aesthetics are also examples that stand out with their different aesthetics, which, when looked at from a traditional high-art perspective, could be seen in the light of the definition of kitsch. Kitsch is commonly claimed to attest to “poor taste,” excessive cuteness, or sentimentality. However, when these artworks are investigated through a wider societal perspective, the works seem to have additional layers which affect, challenge, and play with kitsch aspects.KeywordsKitschBioartNature – cultureEnvironmentBiokitsch
... Kindleberger (1996) ve Brunnermeier (2008) Bunların dışında bilinen ilk balon 1634 ile 1637 yılları arasında yaşanan Lale Çılgınlığı (Tulipomania) örneğidir (Oran, 2011, s.155). Hollanda'da lalelerin fiyatlarında yaşanan ani spekülatif yükselişlerle o dönem lale fiyatları Amsterdam'ın gözde evlerinin fiyatlarına eş değer rakamlara ulaşmıştır (Dash, 1999;Chan vd, 1998, s.126). ...
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Varlık fiyatlarında balon oluşumu; hızlı fiyat artışlarıyla varlığın gerçek değeri aşması olarak nitelendirilmektedir. Konut fiyatlarında son dönemlerde yaşanan hızlı fiyat artışları da Türkiye’de konut fiyatlarında balonun varlığının sorgulanmasına neden olmaktadır. Çalışmada Türkiye geneli ve İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir olmak üzere 3 büyükşehirde 2010 yılı Ocak ayı ile 2022 yılı Ekim ayı arasında konut fiyat balonunun varlığı sağ kuyruk ADF testlerinden SADF ve GSADF test yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (EVDS) üzerinden Türkiye geneli ve 3 büyükşehir için nominal hedonik yeni konut fiyat endeksleri, nominal hedonik yeni olmayan konut fiyat endeksleri ve nominal konut birim fiyatları verileri sağlanmıştır. Son yıllarda özellikle dikkat çeken enflasyon etkisi nedeniyle değişkenlerin her biri aylık Üretici Fiyat Enflasyonu (ÜFE) ile reel hale getirilerek kullanılmıştır. Çoklu fiyat balon oluşumunun tespit edildiği çalışmada özellikle 2020 yılından günümüze kadar uzanan balonun etkisinin Türkiye geneli ve 3 büyükşehirde devam ettiği görülmektedir. Yeni konutlarda, yeni olmayan konutlarda ve konut birim fiyatlarında fiyat balonlarının en az olduğu il Ankara olmuştur. Konut birim fiyatı açısından balon oluşumunda İzmir, İstanbul’u da geçerek en yüksek seviyeye ulaşan büyükşehir olarak dikkat çekmektedir.
... For definitions of types of risk see [7], [3]. 2. Should a proposed scenario that is expected to have an adverse outcome turn out actually to have a benign outcome, this would demonstrate that the scenario is of little concern. 3. Since many stressed scenarios will be motivated by consideration of past events, those interested in stress-testing might be well advised to take a keen interest in historical market crashes, ranging from the classics ( [8], [13], [10], [9]) to more contemporary events [11], [12]. ...
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Attempting to put meaningful numbers to portfolio risks is always challenging. Conventional risk measures are often considered not to fully capture all risks inherent in a portfolio, particularly under difficult market conditions. Under such conditions, stress-testing against significant historical market events, or using invented scenarios may help identify and quantify risks within a portfolio. Stress tests also help reassure a portfolio or risk manager as to how a portfolio might respond to specific market outcomes or other concerns. This paper introduces stress-testing a portfolio of conventional assets against market risks using historical and artificial scenarios. It includes a definition of stress-testing and a classification to aid ongoing discussions, as well as thoughts on practical implementation. Four stress-testing methodologies are explored: two 'historical' stress tests and two 'hypothetical' stress tests. Examples illustrate key concepts, drawing out strengths and weaknesses of the stress tests, which are then discussed with recommendations.
... Historically, examples of the trading routines can be extracted from speculation trades prior to economic crashes. Consider the example of tulip mania in 17 th Century Holland (Dash 2011). Introduced to Holland from the Ottoman Empire, tulips quickly became a coveted luxury item, ultimately resulting in speculative tulip futures trading, with investors irrationally assuming that prices would ceaselessly and exponentially increase. ...
Article
Economic shifts, disruptive innovations, and competitive rivalries continuously reshape the operating environment of organisations. Such uncertainty impacts organisations and raises significant challenges. While many organisations tend to respond to uncertainty by adopting loss minimisation strategies, others see uncertainty as an opportunity to achieve gains. The latter view is exemplified in Taleb’s (2012) concept of ‘antifragility’, a property of systems that gain when exposed to uncertainty. For organisations, the challenge lies in the identification and execution of fundamental artefacts to accomplish work to achieve antifragile outcomes. One such artefact is the organisational routine; repeatable, regular patterns of behaviour and actions that influence performance. This paper conceptualises the intersection between antifragility, uncertainty management, and organisational routines literatures to identify four routine archetypes that can guide actions that contribute to organisational antifragility. Theoretically, this paper identifies how these archetypes arise from the interplay between temporal action (as tendencies towards proactive or reactive action) and risk mitigation strategies (as preference towards redundancies or flexibilities). Developed insights bring forth a foundation for predictive models of performance, and guidance for organisations aiming to thrive, rather than just survive, in uncertain environments. This paper concludes with the identification of further research avenues.
... In Süleyman I's time (1494-1566), gardeners became devoted to cultivating tulips and to breed new varieties, making tulips the quintessential Turkish flower. For example, Seyhulislam Ebusuud Efendi (1570-1625), the minister of Islamic issues of the Ottoman Empire, was said to possess a unique tulip known as Nur-i-Adin, "The Light of Paradise" Dash (2000a). Actually, Tulips have always been popular in the Central Asia, which is believed to be the homeland of all Turks. ...
Article
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Al-Janna—Paradise—is the most important image of the afterworld in Islam. The Qur’an describes paradise as an oasis. Along with the spread of Islam, the image of paradise has gradually transformed into a garden with blooming flowers, where different Muslim groups chose their favorite flower based on their local knowledge and custom. Thus, the Persian, Turkish, and Hui peoples of China chose the rose, tulip, and peony as their respective flowers symbolizing paradise. We argue from these cases that as a world religion, Islam is locally practiced and understood, with many different variations.
... There is historical evidence confirming that, at least between the fourteenth and seventeenth century, European fallow deer were still captured in Asia Minor, especially in Rhodes, and taken to western Europe to embellish palaces and game parks (Masseti 1996). In the sixteenth century, at the time of Suleiman the Magnificent, the immense palatial complex of the Topkapi, in Istanbul, was still covered by huge wooded areas where herds of fallow deer 'roamed amongst the cypresses and along the shady paths' (Dash 1999). ...
... The Synod issued the Canons of Dort, which had five primary points that are known today by the acronym TULIP. Tulips have been symbolic of the Netherlands since the seventeenth century, when "Tulipmania" gripped the country (Dash 2001). The acronym TULIP represents: Total depravity (or inability), Unconditional (or absolute) election, Limited atonement, Irresistible (efficacious) grace, and Perseverance of the saints. ...
... 3 Tako ni nenavadno, da so v ospredje počasi stopile le nekatere rastlinske vrste, ki so postale posebno priljubljene med zbiratelji in so postale podobne artefaktom, ki so bili narejeni zgolj za kabinete, so bili v celoti delo človekovih rok in niso imeli uporabne vrednosti (Impey, MacGregor, 1986, 2). Med te (naravne) artefakte so v 16. in 17. stoletju sodili tulipani, ki so sprožili pravo tulipomanijo in so vplivali celo na tedanji ekonomski trg (Dash, 1999). Zanje so bili namreč posamezniki pripravljeni odšteti ogromne vsote -tako so na primer najvišjo ceno za gomolj, 5200 goldinarjev, zabeležili leta 1637 (Dash, 1999, 9). ...
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V poznem 18. in zgodnjem 19. stoletju je zbiranje tujih rastlin postalo moda, ki je zajela evropske dvore ter posledično številne plemiče, intelektualce, vrtnarje in druge. Nove rastline so tako gojili v oblikovanih vrtovih, zbirali v herbarijih in navajali v katalogih ali jih dajali upodabljati. V tem času ni bilo pomembno le samo zbiranje rastlin, ampak tudi to, da so lastniki oz. zbiratelji pridobili botanično znanje, ki jim je omogočalo, da so te rastline pravilno uporabljali in predstavljali. Na Kranjskem bi tovrstno botanično zanimanje prepoznali pri baronu Jožefu Erbergu, baronih Zois, jezuitu Gabrielu Gruberju in mnogih drugih. Aktivnosti barona Erberga, kot jih lahko razberemo iz arhivskih virov (predvsem njegove ohranjene korespondence), so tako vključevale zbiranje rastlin, njihovo izmenjavo in nakup ter zanimanje za druge botanične novosti. Med kranjskimi ljubitelji rastlin so bile posebno priljubljene pelargonije, hortenzije in agave, ki so imele pomembno mesto v oblikovanih vrtovih, pogosto znotraj predela vrta, ki je bil namenjen neavtohtonim rastlinam. Zbiranje tujih rastlin pa seveda ni le domena obravnavanega časa in prostora, saj so ga poznali že v času starih civilizacij, kot sta bili npr. asirska in kitajska, ter v 16. in 17. stoletju, in sicer v okviru priljubljenih kabinetov kuriozitet. Ob primerjanju slednjih in botaničnih zbirk zgodnjega 19. stoletja lahko prepoznamo nekatere podobnosti (zbiranje redkih, predvsem eksotičnih rastlin ter zbiranje rastlin z namenom prikazati imperialno moč), vendar so družbene spremembe 18. in 19. stoletja vplivale na botanično zbiranje ter prinesle novosti in razlike. Razvoj botanike kot znanosti, uveljavljanje botaničnega ljubiteljstva, modne rastline, zanimanje za gospodarsko donosnost posesti, spremenjeno dojemanje narave in okolja ter drugih družbenih vrednot, kot sta bili družina in država – vse to je torej okoli leta 1800 vplivalo na priljubljenost zbiranja rastlin v evropskem prostoru oz. na Kranjskem. Tako lahko zbiranje rastlin v tem času posledično vidimo tudi kot zaton in preobrazbo nekdanjih naravoslovnih kabinetov kuriozitet.
... 77 Thirsk (1974). 78 On tulipmania see, for example, Dash (2000) and Goldgar (2007). 79 Thirsk (1974: 281). ...
Book
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obacco has become one of the most widely used and traded commoditites on the planet. Reflecting contemporary anthropological interest in material culture studies, Anthropology of Tobacco makes the plant the centre of its own contentious, global story in which, instead of a passive commodity, tobacco becomes a powerful player in a global adventure involving people, corporations and public health. Bringing together a range of perspectives from the social and natural sciences as well as the arts and humanities, Anthropology of Tobacco weaves stories together from a range of historical, cross-cultural and literary sources and empirical research. These combine with contemporary anthropological theories of agency and cross-species relationships to offer fresh perspectives on how an apparently humble plant has progressed to world domination, and the consequences of it having done so. It also considers what needs to happen if, as some public health advocates would have it, we are seriously to imagine 'a world without tobacco'. This book presents students, scholars and practitioners in anthropology, public health and social policy with unique and multiple perspectives on tobacco-human relations.
... An economic bubble usually refers to the economic phenomenon that asset prices extremely deviate from their fundamental values [115]. One of the most famous bubbles in history, known as the Dutch Tulip Bubble [29,46], could be traced back to the 1630s. According And the crash itself, is usually referred to as the burst of the US Housing Bubble [58]. ...
Thesis
This thesis consists of three submitted papers and one working paper. It begins with the study of asymptotic solutions for the first passage time densities of various diffusion processes, and the thesis ends up with an application of such findings in the area of systematic trading. In between, financial bubbles and the regulatory risk management for the banking industry are studied additionally. The purpose of this thesis is to, by combining probability theory with financial practice, provide quantitative tools for investment decision and risk management. Chapters 3-5 are reorganised from the first passage time paper [31]. Our research method is mainly based on the potential theory and the perturbation theory. In Chapter 3, a unified recursive framework for finding first passage time asymptotic densities has been proposed. Besides, we prove the convergence of our framework and provide an error estimation formula. Examples related to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and the Bessel processes are demonstrated in Chapters 4 and 5, respectively. The second paper [30] is documented in Chapter 6. It introduces a new diffusion process which is relevant to financial bubbles. During the study of the first passage time, we occasionally found that the sample path of the new process coincides with log-price features of bubble assets. In Chapter 6, we show that the new model is a power-exponential transform of the Shiryaev process [116, 117]; and we prove that the model itself, indeed, satisfies various technical requirements for defining a financial bubble [107]. Furthermore, by using our previous framework, we solve the closed-form asymptotic for the model’s first passage time; and according to which, we have made predictions to the burst time of BitCoin. Chapter 7 is a modified version of the third paper [75]. We consider the risk capital allocation issue under the forthcoming regulatory framework, namely the Fundamental Review of Trading Book. Apart from studying coherent properties of the new risk measure, we propose two alternative capital allocation schemes within the range of Internal Modelling Approach. Our analysis shows that, different choices in allocation methods can lead significantly different allocated capitals, therefore, impacting on bank’s performance measure and capital optimisation. Our current working paper about systematic trading is demonstrated in Chapter 8. We propose two mathematical frameworks for, respectively, defining executable trading strategies and identifying the strategy-associated trading signals. Based on our definitions, we show how the first passage time can be employed in systematic trading. As a summary of applications to previous chapters, we use simulation analysis to illustrate the trading idea and the implementation of risk capital allocation. In the end, real data backtest on China stock market indicates that the first passage time could be an effective tool in recognising trading opportunities.
... . On "Tulipomania" seeDash (1999) 15. See, for exampleBouk (2015);Horan (2011);Levy (2012).Judging the Mind 841 ...
Article
Susanna L. Blumenthal’s Law and the Modern Mind: Consciousness and Responsibility in American Legal Culture (2016) is a history of the self in nineteenth-century America. When judges considered a person’s criminal responsibility or civil capacity in court, they created a body of legal and political thought about the self, society, the economy, and American democracy. This essay uses Blumenthal’s book to explore recent work on law and the mind in Britain and North America, and argues that abstract questions about free will, the self, and the mind were part of the everyday jurisprudence of the nineteenth century. Debates about responsibility were also debates about the psychological consequences of capitalism and the borders of personhood and citizenship at a time of rapid economic, political, and social change.
... He was passionated about botany and horticulture, he was recorded for the first time the cultivation of garden tulips in Adrianople in 1554, when as he served as ambassador of the Austrian monarch. He declares that to saw "an abundance of flowers everywhere, daffodils, hyacinths and what the Turks called Tulipan." [3] [4] In the Ottoman Empire the tulip becomes the symbol of the sultan and privilege of the leading class. The tulips gardens symbolize wealth, prestige and power, this is resulting in intensive cultivation of this genre. ...
Conference Paper
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... México D.F., Editorial: Fondo de Cultura Económica. 13 Dash, M. (2000). "Tulipomania: The History of the World's Most Coveted Flower and the Extraordinary Passions It Aroused". ...
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Las crisis financieras son acontecimientos notorios que derivan en consecuencias relevantes para todos. Grandes recesiones y cambios de poder muestran que muchas multinacionales se ven superadas por este contexto de resultados, obligándonos a ser cada vez más eficientes para no perder frente a los competidores y culminar en bancarrota. Por ello surgen normativas globales para evitar que la economía caiga. La regulación crece, y las empresas están obligadas a cumplir. Los estafadores inventan sistemas de contabilidad clandestina que permiten la aparición de actores nuevos que intentan encontrar una brecha, no solo en controles internos, sino también en toda normativa planteada. Sin embargo, el análisis de lo novedoso en los fraudes nos demuestra algo diferente. Muchas tácticas utilizadas para evadir controles y engañar actores se repiten a lo largo de la historia, falta de organismos de contralor o derogaciones normativas permiten maniobras arriesgadas, mostrándonos un ciclo de regulación-desregulación a lo largo de la historia . Procuramos descifrar como podemos considerar a la Sociedad como una gran entidad con sus accionistas, dirección, ejecutivos y auditores, entre otros, con un “control interno” que procura alcanzar objetivos similares a los de empresas listadas: eficiencia, cumplimiento y confiabilidad de información y además poder referenciarla a esos fenómenos económicos nefastos. Somos conscientes que es apenas un aporte y análisis inicial resumido que inicia el camino hacia un modelo para la sociedad en su conjunto.
... At the beginning of 1637, Semper Augustus was sold to the 10,000 Guilder. 10,000 Guilder could be paid by all but a few dozen of people in the Netherlands and coinciding with the price of the most beautiful houses in Amsterdam (Dash, 1999). In 20th century, real estate bubbles took place in US., Switzerland and Japan. ...
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Due to their volatility differences, yield differences and low correlations with equity markets, metal futures are held for diversification in the international investors' portfolios. Beginning with dot.com bubble and following global crisis, the mutual movement of equity markets caused investors to canalize alternative investment vehicles. The study aims to investigate if there are bubbles in metal futures in The Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) for aluminum in a weekly data range. Using Sup Augmented Dickey Fuller (SADF) and Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey Fuller (GSADF) tests, no evidence on bubble could be found in any metal market in the used MCX sample. The precious metal markets are out of the sample because of their relatively high volatility.
... If markets are efficient there would not be an opportunity to time the market and gain an advantage from issuing or repurchasing a specific type of security (Marsh, 1982). Ever since the price of tulips famously exceeded the price of houses in 1637 in what is now widely considered to be the first ever speculative bubble and is popularly referred to as "Tulip Mania" (Dash, 1999) researchers and investors alike have questioned the reliability of markets. Over time researchers have disputed the assumption of perfect markets, viewing perfect financial markets as a hypothetical ideal that does not exist in reality (Jalilvand & Harris, 1984). ...
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This study empirically evaluates the market timing hypothesis for companies listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange between 2011 and 2016 by evaluating the relationship between net equity issues and the market-to-book ratio. This paper finds no empirical evidence to support the market timing hypothesis. Instead this study finds that firms tend to issue equity when the market-to-book ratio is low which suggests that firms issue equity as a last resort providing evidence to support pecking order theory.
... In addition, it might be difficult to think of the present order as anything novel, as even financial crashes have been known to take place already in the 17th century (Dash 1999;Reinhart & Rogoff 2011). In some sense, present financial capitalism is indeed a political re-enactment of the earlier eras of 'big finance'. ...
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The recurring financial crises and intensive financialisation force a reconsideration of theories of justice. This article analyses financial capitalism as an ideal-type. In ideal-typical financial capitalism, risks and positions of vulnerability take a pronounced role in the determination of social positions. Risks also come in a specific ontological form. Further, the analysis extends to the production of value in financial capitalism and its relation to a particular logic of determining social positions. The article discusses, how should theories of justice be updated to accommodate this particular ontology of risks. This requires also making a distinction between explicit and implicit priority orders in a society.
... In 2005 the wine export was sharply reduced with the big importer state Russia. In 2001In-2003 the wine products export comprised 10,3% of the whole export, at present only 2,5% 3. Therefore in the export is important the industrial production share that makes us to think that it is possible for the state the rating priority in industrial sector and this will promote development of other sectors (agriculture, construction, trade). Georgian specialists Georgia belong to those countries which have the biggest potential in production of agricultural and food products. ...
Conference Paper
Upheaval of economics competitiveness is the most important task of any state. One of determinant role belongs to economic policy. Georgia must have priorities not only in traditional fields but also in high quality, high-tech and high productive spheres as well. Only in this way is possible increase of competitive long-term, irreversible growth, boosting of revenues and salaries and improvement of population living conditions. We may name, for example, manufacturing of pharmaceutical products, telecommunication devices, gadgets and instalments. While the last period in a whole world has been especially boosted demands for preparations of plant origin. Accordingly has been increased demands for medicinal plants. The medicinal plants which plays one of the most important part in pharmacological research industry and in creation of medicinal preparations, at present are widely spread. Natural preparations represent significant part in a whole medicinal trade capacity. Georgia’s flora is rich with medicinal plants from ancient times. Georgia has ability to occupy honourable part in manufacturing-realization of medicinal plants in the international market. The state should promote production of ecologically pure preparations and drawing of investors with care in this field. Creation of competitive status of Georgia in a world market is highly depended upon competitive fields of the service sphere like hotels and restaurant businesses and insurance. One of the priorities of Georgia is its transit functions which together with natural-climatic conditions, intellectual recourses and other factors should provide business development in the state and upgrade of economics competitiveness.
... In 2005 the wine export was sharply reduced with the big importer state Russia. In 2001In-2003 the wine products export comprised 10,3% of the whole export, at present only 2,5% 3. Therefore in the export is important the industrial production share that makes us to think that it is possible for the state the rating priority in industrial sector and this will promote development of other sectors (agriculture, construction, trade). Georgian specialists Georgia belong to those countries which have the biggest potential in production of agricultural and food products. ...
... Lured by the promise of big profits, ever more speculators entered the market, and prices became outlandish. The tulip market crashed utterly in February 1637, and the investments were lost (Dash, 1999 Luther's theology emphasizes the inward freedom of the humans but is  indifferent towards political freedom-and therefore receptive to totalitarian governments, as John Dewey (1915) bluntly emphasized in his lecture series German Philosophy and Politics. A short and concise analysis of the educational theory of this Lutheran ideology, Bildung, is provided by Rebekka Horlacher (Horlacher, 2012). ...
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This book contextualizes the life of Pestalozzi along the lines of what is called ‘the educationalization of the world’ at the end of the eighteenth and the beginning of the nineteenth century, in which social problems were beginning to be understood as, and to be translated into, educational problems. Pestalozzi’s ‘discovery’ of the educational/teaching ‘method’ and its propaganda fit this educationalized culture perfectly and reinforced it. Accordingly, after the end of the Napoleonic rule and the Congress of Vienna in 1815, stakeholders in the newly founded nation-states began to erect public mass school systems in order to “make” future citizens and to realize the vision of the nation. Based on newer research and on new sources – the recent publication of some 2,500 letters sent to Pestalozzi – this work will reconstruct Pestalozzi’s passive and active role in the making of the educationalized world, first in Europe and then overseas.
... There, the traders bought and sold derivatives of tulips that were yet in the ground. It is often said that this was the development of the first future market in history (Dash, 2001). Since most tulip bulbs, albeit not the most exclusive ones (Dash, 2001, p. 206), were traded in taverns rather than official exchanges, the regulatory abilities of the government were limited. ...
Thesis
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Market bubbles can cause severe damage to the financial stability of any economy as well as to the live of peoples, directly and indirectly. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the reasons for why market bubbles exist and how one could forecast them to reduce the damage that they can make. Especially since passive investment strategies gain more and more popularity, a closer look on market anomalies is necessary. Hence, this study will investigate the rationale behind market bubbles, historical market bubbles and ways to identify market bubbles before they burst. In this study, I present an easy-to-use method for avoiding market bubbles and a way to profit from these market anomalies. For this, I tested 46 bubble avoidance, long-only asset allocation trading strategies and present the results in this thesis. Keywords: Market Bubbles, Asset Price Bubbles, Market Anomalies, Bubbles
... Elle persiste parce que les acheteurs pensent que le prix des tulipes va continuer à augmenter, ce qui alimente la demande, qui ellemême prolonge la hausse du prix. Au premier signe indiquant que le prix va cesser d'augmenter, les acheteurs décident de ne plus suivre, et le prix s'effondre immédiatement (Dash 1999). Les tulipes n'étaient bien évidemment pas responsables de cette explosion, même si on peut présumer que, dans ce type de situation, des gens intéressés essayent de manipuler l'opinion en fonction des tendances qui leur sont profitables. ...
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Resumo Este artigo procura refletir sobre o porquê da importância da encíclica Laudato Si’ do Papa Francisco e suas relações com a sustentabilidade. Trata-se de tema vasto e extremamente complexo. Possui incontáveis variáveis. Para expor o assunto, vamos efetuar simplificações, tentar criar um modelo de pensar e fazer algumas propostas para reflexão. Vamos seguir o convite do Papa: pensar diferente. Revolucionariamente. Sem a pretensão de estarmos corretos nessa exposição, mas com a certeza de abrir caminhos para ação. Palavras-chave: Laudato Si’. Sustentabilidade. Caminhos para a ação. Abstract This paper provides a reflection on the importance of Pope Francis’s Laudato Si’ encyclical and its relationship with sustainability. This is a broad and extremely complex theme, with endless variables. In order to discuss this topic, simplification was required, a thinking model was created and some reflection proposals were made. Let us embrace the Pope’s proposal to think along different lines and break new ground. With no intention of providing a single correct version of the issues, this paper will definitely open up new pathways for action. Keywords: Laudato Si’. Sustainability. Pathways for action.
Article
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Chapter
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This chapter discusses ideas or proposals that have been proposed as alternatives to the current monetary system, such as Irving Fisher’s (1936a) “100% Money” proposal, Modern Monetary Theory, time banks, indexed money, gold standard, crypto-currencies, Tobin taxes or Islamic Banking. Even though some of these ideas could improve upon the status quo, none of these proposals can avoid that money supply and debt grow and eventually start decoupling from the real economy. Most “alternatives” at best address the symptoms but do not cure the illness at its roots.
Thesis
Il s'agit de comprendre le phénomène récurrent des crises financières des pays émergents à travers la mise en exergue une liaison logique entre la mauvaise gestion macroéconomique de ces pays émergents et les crises financières. Nous posons, donc, l’idée selon laquelle les pays émergents sont sous la menace des crises financières parce que leur modèle de développement qui leur permet d’émerger dans l’économie mondiale peut poser un problème. Nous essayons de montrer cette idée par l’analyse des manifestations extérieures de ces crises et des causes possibles de leur déclenchement.
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Traditionally, classical finance theories have argued that investors are rational and not influenced by human factors when making financial decisions. Recent developments in the field of finance, such as the anomalies that occurred and occasional financial crises took place, raised skepticism among researchers changing their approach towards traditional theories, as these theories failed to explain or predict unexpected developments in the markets, thus not supporting the unrealistic assumption of rational man (homo economicus). The research work for this new field of finance belongs to the recent decades. More specifically, there are quite a few studies in Albania due to the presence of an underdeveloped financial market. In the multitude of different factors, which influence the financial behavior of the investor, most of the research in the field of financial behavior is dedicated to the study of psychological biases. The topic of this study focuses on the impact of the personality type of individual investors on their decisions to invest in financial assets offered in Albania. The study is composed in the same logic line as that of the purpose and the research question raised. Quantitative strategy is used to answer the research question and draw conclusions. Descriptive and regression analysis was used through R-programme to identify the significance of the type of personality in Albanian individual investor behavior. We use the questionnaire as an instrument to collect data. Big Five Personality Model is chosen as the measurement scale. Only coherent data that remained after the reliability test (Cronbach Alpha), will be further used in regression statistical analysis to examine their impact on investor behavior. The analysis shows that the type of personality affects individual investment decisions in financial assets. More specifically Extraversion, Conscientiousness, and Neuroticism affect the amount of money invested in the asset. 'Openness' and 'Neuroticism' affect the level of certainty investors perceive for the investment made in financial assets.
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Tulipa sylvestris, commonly called the “wild tulip”, was introduced from the Mediterranean to northern Europe in the sixteenth century and became widely naturalized. Research has focused on tulips that came from the Ottoman Empire, but the introduction path of this native European, early ornamental tulip is unclear, and so is its taxonomic status: three subspecies are provisionally accepted, sometimes treated as species. Here we elucidate the history of introduction of T. sylvestris and discuss its taxonomy based on our historical findings. The first bulbs came from Bologna (northern Italy) and Montpellier (southern France) in the 1550–1570 s. Several renowned botanists were involved in their introduction, namely Gessner, Wieland, Aldrovandi, De Lobel, Clusius, and Dodoens. There were various introduction routes, including one from Spain which was apparently unsuccessful. The strong sixteenth-century Flemish botanical network facilitated the introduction and naturalization of T. sylvestris across Europe. Based on the latest tulip taxonomy, the diploid subspecies australis is native in the Mediterranean, and the tetraploid sylvestris is naturalized over Europe, but our historical findings show that both sylvestris and australis were introduced to northern Europe. This underlines the need to reconsider the taxonomic status of T. sylvestris, highlighting the importance of botanical history in understanding the complex taxonomy of naturalized cultivated plants.
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The basic and common features of bubbles are revealed by historical reviews and comparisons of important episodes. Assumptions about the effectiveness of monetary policy initiatives and approaches are questioned along with the assumption that GDP growth and market returns are related.
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The details and complexities of bulb breeding are presented. The appointment of Carolus Clusius as Professor of Botany at Leiden University in 1593 was the beginning of the bulb and flower industry in the Netherlands. Recent new breeding technologies will be explored, including genetic editing and bulb propagation methods, which have the potential to unleash a Cambrian explosion of flower types.
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In 1887, the brilliant invention of the Dutch auction mechanism and its transition to the electric auctioneer and the establishment of grower cooperatives led to the dominance of the Dutch flower business and its markets. High-speed pricing combined with high-speed logistics created a competitive advantage both for flower growers and for sellers. Current strengths and weaknesses of the Dutch auction system are discussed and compared with other auction formats.
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We briefly propose a possibly more precise systemic understanding of the process of crisis with the purpose of allowing suitable, appropriate modifying interventions. Examples and types of crises are introduced. At a suitable level of representation we consider crisis as a non-autonomous parasitic process of the hosting one(s); processes acquiring characteristics autonomous with respect to those of the hosting process(es); processes converging to degeneration and malfunctioning; which are emergent and given by coherent, subsequent and related new degenerative properties or loss of coherence among emergent processes of the hosting one(s). Possible symptoms for diagnostics and prediction of processes of crisis are outlined. Types of crisis are considered and some generic exemplifying types of actions on crises are proposed. The main purpose of this article is to show that different types of processes of crisis having different natures are possible and that suitable, appropriate approaches should be adopted.
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The Bitcoin model originated blockchain architectures and inspired their further development. Blockchain architectures are still most commonly associated with currency applications, and with financial speculation. Bitcoin's rewards for Proof of Work mining became the default consensus technique for blockchains. As an alternative to reward mechanisms for blockchain maintenance, we propose punishment mechanisms for neglecting to maintain the blockchain (provided participants are intrinsically motivated to be beneficiaries of the blockchain application). Punishment not Reward is convincing for enterprise mission critical blockchain applications, and potential punishment mechanisms include denial of service and/or revocation of confidentiality. This obviates the need for reward via cryptocurrencies, along with their attendant volatility, insecure ecosystem, and market manipulation demerits. The privacy concerns of competing entities participating in a blockchain application are prima facie in conflict with the needs of the community to be able to inflict punishment mechanisms. Conflicts of this kind can be addressed via sophisticated cryptographic techniques such as secret sharing, multiparty computation, zero‐knowledge proofs, and so on, which play a vital role. We stress the importance of correctly balancing all application specific interests in the engineering of blockchain applications, so that the mix of incentives and disincentives is stabilizing.
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In this paper, private gardens are portrayed as spaces and implements of aristocratic passion for plant collecting, of competition within the gentry, as well as of scientific professionalisation for botanists. This paper traces the early history of botanical collections in the Russian Empire from the 18th to the early 19th century as part of an elite culture which encouraged amateur patrons to invest in expeditions, gardens, and, consequently, in professionals to manage such projects. Young graduates of European universities who began their careers working at private botanical institutions could later successfully apply for academic positions. The circulation of specimens had developed as a key element of botanical collection and an important basis for the networking of professionals and amateurs around the world. This paper argues that collecting plant specimens became an important means for engaging in “power games” and even “plant diplomacy.” These new responsibilities significantly increased botanists' status as experts. A diverse group of personalities, such as the Empress Catherine II, King George III of England, the industrialist Prokophy Demidov, aristocrat Alexei Razumovsky, Joseph Banks, President of the Royal Society, the academician Peter Simon Pallas—all shared a passion for botanical collecting and were engaged in power games at different levels, using botany as an instrument of influence.
Chapter
Starting from an investigation into the nature of business cycles, Chapter 4 illustrates a new theory to explain business cycle and economic growth. This theory is subsequently derived rigorously by using economic models. The implications of the new theory are also discussed. The chapter ends with a demonstration of empirical evidence relevant to the new theory.
Book
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Finansal krizler tüm ekonomilerde tarih boyunca kendini göstermiş ya da kaygısını çoğu zaman hissettirmiştir. Ortaya çıkan finansal krizlerin nedenlerine bugün baktığımızda; bir diğerine benzer seyirler izlediklerini ve gene benzer faktörlerin etkisiyle ortaya çıktıklarını görebiliyoruz. Birçok alanda olduğu gibi finansal krizlerde de tarih tekerrür ediyor. Tekerrür ediyor çünkü finansal faaliyetlerin merkezinde insan unsuru var ve zaman zaman çılgınlaşan kimi zaman panikleyen insan; dün de bugün de yatırımcı rolünde benzer davranışlar sergiliyor. Bir diğer ifadeyle yatırımcı davranışları dün de bugün de birbirine benziyor. Bu çalışmada finansal krizler tarihi boyutuyla ele alınmış, tarihte şişirilen finansal balonlar ve ardından panikleyen yatırımcıların davranışları sonucu yaşanan buhranlar işlenmiştir.
Chapter
The basic and common features of bubbles are revealed by historical reviews and comparisons of important episodes. Assumptions about the effectiveness of monetary policy initiatives and approaches are questioned along with the assumption that GDP growth and market returns are related.
Article
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Bubbles are deviations of financial asset prices from random walk process and have been present in many stock markets in history. The purpose of the study is detecting bubbles and their beginning and ending dates in ten emerging markets. By the help of Sup Augmented Dickey Fuller (SADF) and Generalized Sup Aug�mented Dickey Fuller (GSADF) tests, bubble events identified in ten emerging stock markets’ main equity indices (BIST100: Turkey, BOVESPA: Brazil, IDX Composite: Indonesia, IPC: Mexico, IPSA: Chile, KOSPI: South Korea, MCX: Russia, NIFTY50: India, QE All Shares: Qatar, WIG20: Poland) for the period from January 2001 to July 2017. The results indicate that all of the emerging stock markets in our sample separated from their random walk more than one time in the 2001-2017 period except WIG20.
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This book is the first study of the portico and its decorative program as a cultural phenomenon in Renaissance Italy. Focusing on a largely neglected group of porticoes decorated with painted pergolas that appeared in Rome and environs in the sixteenth and early seventeenth centuries, it tells the story of how an element of the garden-the pergola-became a pictorial topos in portico decoration, and evolved, hand in hand with its real cousin in the garden, into an object for cultural emulation among the educated patrons of early modern Rome. The liminality of both the portico and the pergola at the interface of architecture and garden is key to the interpretation of these architectural and painted forms, which rests on the intersecting frameworks of the classical tradition, natural history, and the cultural identity of the aristocracy. In the mediating space of the Renaissance portico, the illusionism pergola created an art gallery, a natural history museum, and a virtual garden where one could engage in leisurely strolls, learned conversations, appreciation of art, and scientific investigation, as well as extensive travel across time and space. The book proposes the interpretation that the illusionistic pergola was an artistic formula for the early modern perception of nature.
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