Attenuation relations of peak ground acceleration and velocity in the Southern Dead Sea Transform region

Abstract

Using the recorded earthquake strong ground motion, the attenuation of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity
(PGV) are derived in the southern Dead Sea Transform region. The expected values of strong motion parameters from future earthquakes
are estimated from attenuation equations, which are determined by regression analysis on real accelerograms. In this study,
the method of Joyner and Boor [Bull Seismol Soc Am 71(6):2011–2038, 1981] was selected to produce the attenuation model for the southern Dead Sea Transform region. The dataset for PGA consists of
57 recordings from 30 earthquakes and for PGV 26 recordings from 19 earthquakes. The attenuation relations developed in this
study are proposed as replacement for former probabilistic relations that have been used for a variety of earthquake engineering
applications. The comparison between the derived PGA relations from this study with the former relations clearly shows significant
lower values than the other relations.

Full text

ORIGINAL PAPER
Attenuation relations of peak ground acceleration
and velocity in the Southern Dead Sea Transform region
Mahmoud Y. Al-Qaryouti
Received: 15 July 2008 / Accepted: 25 August 2008
#
Saudi Society for Geosciences 2008
Abstract Using the recorded earthquake strong ground
motion, the attenuation of peak ground acceleration (PGA)
and peak ground velocity (PGV) are deriv ed in the southern
Dead Sea Transform region. The expected values of strong
motion parameters from future earthquakes are estimated
from attenuation equations, which are determined by
regression analysis on real accelerograms. In this study,
the method of Joyner and Boor [Bull Seismol Soc Am 71
(6):2011–2038, 1981] was selected to produce the attenu-
ation model for the southern Dead Sea Transform region.
The dataset for PGA consists of 57 recordings from 30
earthquakes and for PGV 26 recordings from 19 earth-
quakes. The attenuation relations developed in this study
are proposed as replacement for former probabilistic
relations that have been used for a variety of earthquake
engineering applications. The comparison between the
derived PGA relations from this study with the former
relations clearly shows significant lower values than the
other relations.
Keywords PGA
.
PGV
.
Dead Sea Transform
.
Regression analysis
.
Accelerograms
.
Attenuation model
Introduction
Studies for empirical prediction of earthquake strong
ground motion usually evaluate attenuation curves to
determine maximum amplitude and spect rum of seismic
waves. During early stage of seismology, attenuation curves
were used to determine the magnitude for an earthquake by
empirical corrections of observed maximum amplitudes for
the distance from the source to the observation station
(Richter 1935 ; Tsuboi 1954). Variables of the attenuation
curve are usually magnitude and distance.
As many strong motion records have been accumulated,
many attenuation curves have been derived empirically
utilizing regression analysis (e.g., Fukushima and Tanaka
1990; Theodulidis and Papazachos 1992, 1994; Fukushima
and Irikura 1997; Douglas 2003 ; Gulkan and Kalkan 2004;
Ambraseys et al. 2005; Kanno et al. 2006). However, recent
advances in the studies of the attenuation of seismic waves
indicate that most of them have no distinct theoretical
background. A predictive model is needed. Such a model,
commonly referred to an attenuation relation, is expressed
as a mathematical function relating a strong-motion
parameter [e.g., peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak
ground velocity (PGV)] to parameters characterizing the
earthquake, propagation medium, local site geology, and
engineering structure (Campbell 1985).
Estimation of ground motion either implicity through the
use of special earthquake codes or more specifically from
site-specific investigations is essential for the design of
engineered structures. The development of design criteria
requires, as a minimum, a strong-motion attenuation
relationship to estimate earthquake ground motions from
specific parameters characterizing the earthquake source,
geologic conditions of the site, and the length of the
propagation path between the source and the site.
The Dead Sea Transform (DST) system is tectonically
active zone. It is the dominant st ru ct ural elemen t of
transform type in the region. Many destructive earthquakes
occurred in the region durin g historic and prehis toric
periods. The instrumentally recorded earthquakes seem to
Arab J Geosci
DOI 10.1007/s12517-008-0010-4
M. Y. Al-Qaryouti (*)
Seismology Division, Natural Resources Authority,
Amman, Jordan
e-mail: almah2010@yahoo.com

have taken place in the form of sequences. Many of the
main shocks of the earthquake sequences are recorded by
accelerograph stations. These earthquake data are essential
for creating new empirical attenuation relations in the
region.
Previous attenuation relations
With no strong motion records predicted in Jordan, east of
the Dead Sea area, before August 2, 1993, isoseismal maps
were analyzed by Al-Tarazi (1992) to study the attenuation
of intensities with distance. Using three earthquakes
(25 November 1759, 1 January 1837, and 11 July 1927)
that occurred in the DST region, the following relation for
the region was derived:
IR; MðÞ¼1:8M  1:32  0:026R  0:313
 ln R þ 25ðÞ ð2:1Þ
where I(R, M) is the intensity at a distance R in kilometer
from the epicenter and a magnitude M. This relation is used
to assess the probabilistic seismic hazard in the southern
DST region and its vicinity in terms of intensity. Other
attenuation relations of PGA have been derived for the
region (Amrat 1996; Malkawi and Fahmi 1996; Al-Tarazi
and Qadan 19 97 ). These relations were derived depending
mainly on historical earthquake data and, in general, have
the form:
YR; MðÞ¼c
1
e
c2m
R þ c
4
ðÞ
c3
ð2:2Þ
where Y(R, M) is the peak ground acceleration of an
earthquake epicenter with distance R in kilometer from the
epicenter and magnitude M. c
1
, c
2
, and c
3
are constants
appropriate to the region under consideration and to be
determined by the least-squares method, while c
4
is a
suitable chosen constant, usually 25 km. The constants of
c
1
, c
2
, c
3
, and c
4
of these equations are summarized in
Table 1.
Strong motion database
Earthquake strong ground motion observation began in the
west of the Dead Sea area before 1979, while it began in
the east of the area in May 1990 when the Jordan
Seismological Observatory of Natural Resources Authority
operated the Kiemertric PDR-1 accelerograph stations. In
the second stage, it operated the kinemetric SSA-2 and Etna
accelerograph stations.
For field data retrieval and control of the SSA-2 and
Etna, all required an IBM PC compatible portable comput-
er, thus saving the expense of a specialized dedicated
playback system. For complete processing of strong motion
events recorded on the SSA-2 and Etna and for use with the
IBM (or 100% compatible) personal computer, a full set of
software is available from Kinemetrics system.
Despite the slow increase in the number of accelero-
graphs in the region, useful accelerograms were obtained.
Fortunately, recent intensive installation of digital accelero-
graph instru ments took place in different localities of
Jordan where, nowadays, the Jordan Strong Motion
Network consists of 27 digital accelerograph stations (see
Fig. 1).
Thirty earthquakes were recorded by the accelero-
graph stations in the southern DST region with a
magnitude range M=3.7–6.2 (see Table 2). Nineteen of
them occurred in the Gulf of Aqaba region. The first
interesting accelerograms have been obtained in Jordan
during the Dead Sea earthquake of August 2, 1993 with
local magnitude of 4. Peak ground accelerations and
velocities of the recorded earthquakes which have been
used in this study are given in Table 3. Th e largest
earthquake was recorded by the accelerograph stations in
the DST region is the 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake.
With its 6.2 local magnitude (M
W
=7.3), it was located at
about 93 km south of Aqaba City with a depth of 12.5 km.
This event was recorded at six accelerograph stations in
Jordan and nine stations in the west of the Dead Sea area.
Aqaba Hotel Accelerograph Station (AQH) recorded the
largest peak ground acceleration (157 cm/s
2
) and peak
ground velocity (9.3 cm/s) during the 1995 Gulf of Aqaba
earthquake, while Aqaba Civil Defense Accelerograph
Station (ACD) recorded the largest displacement of
1.85 cm during the same earthquake.
Extraction of the attenuation relationship
As mentioned above, until now, all of the derived PGA
equations for Jordan and around were extracted depending
on historical earthquake data. Therefore, in this study, a
new attenuation equation of PGA and PGV using strong
motion records of earthquakes that occurred in and around
the southern DST region was utilized. The expected values
of strong motion parameters from future earthquakes are
estimated from attenuation equations which are determined
by regression analysis on real accelerogram s. The strong
Table 1 Constants of attenuation equations for the southern DST
region and around that derived by different sources
Reference c
1
c
2
c
3
c
4
Amrat (1996) 0.5 0.35 0.01 20
Malkawi and Fahmi (1996) 383.75 1.03 1.73 25
Al-Tarazi and Qadan (1997) 0.645 1.514 1.036 25
Arab J Geosci

motion parameter is predicted as a function of independent
parameters defining the earthquake source, the path to the
recording site, and the nature of the site itself. The two
independent parameter s that are always included in the
model are the magnitude of the earthquake and the distance
from the source to the site. The additional independent
parameter that is most commonly included is the geological
site.
The attenuation method of Joyner and Boore (1981) was
selected in this study to produce the attenuation model for
the southern DST region and around. This method applies a
two-step algorithm and uses a magnitude-independent
shape based on geo metrical spreading and anelastic
attenuation for the attenuation curve.
For simplicity, a linear atte nuation relation between
logarithmic acceleration and the distance in kilometers to
the closest approach of the zone of energy release was
applied to the data for each earthquake. The estimated
linear regression model is:
log A ¼b log RðÞþc ð4:1Þ
where A is the peak horizontal acceleration in cm/s
2
, R is
the distance between site and rupture in kilometer and, b
and c are the regression coefficients.
Next, a general multiple regression analysis was per-
formed for th e whole dataset by assum ing the basic
regression model,
log A ¼ aM b log RðÞþc ð4:2Þ
where M is the magnitude, and a, b, and c are the regression
coefficients. To avoid the interaction between the coeffi-
cients a and b, a two-step stratified regression analysis
method using dummy variables has been found to be very
effective. In the firs t step, it is assumed that in Eq. 4.2, the
Accelerographsin Jordan
4 Accelerographsin Amman
Accelerographin Palestine area
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Iraq
Fig. 1 Accelerograph stations in the southern DST region that have been used in this study
Arab J Geosci

distance coefficient b (distance decay parameter) is uniquely
assigned for all earthquakes and the constant terms aM+c
are replaced by Σ d
i
l
i
for individual earthquakes. That is,
log A ¼b log RðÞþΣd
i
l
i
ð4:3Þ
where, l
i
is a dummy variables (equals 1 for the ith
earthquake, 0 otherwise) and d
i
is a coefficient for ith
earthquake.
As a second step, the attenuation model uses an equation
of the form:
log yðÞ¼c
1
þ c
2
M þ c
3
log RðÞþc
4
RðÞs  P ð4:4Þ
where y is the ground motion parameter and c
1
, c
2
, c
3
, and
c
4
are the coefficients found by regression analysis. The
distance may be defined in many ways, sometimes being
the distance from epicenter or the hypocenter. The terms in
c
3
and c
4
in Eq. 4.4 represent, respectively, the geometric
and anelastic attenuation, and their coefficients must be
negative. The final term in Eq. 4.4 is as important as the
coefficients themselves and the mean value of y that they
predicted. There is always very considerable scatter in
the data with respect to the average behavior represented by
the predicted equation, and this scatter is measured by the
standard deviation σ; the residuals usually have a log-
normal distribution, so P simply represents the normal
distribution, taking a value of 0 for the 50 percentile and
1 for 84 percentile. The use of dummy variables to divide the
data into classes is a well-known technique in regression
analysis (Draper and Smith 1966; Weisberg 1980)
Data a nalysis and results
The dataset for peak ground acceleration consists of
57 recordings from 30 earthquakes and for peak ground
velocity 26 recordings from 19 earthquakes. Twenty-one of
the earthquakes in the peak acceleration dataset and 17 of
the earthquakes in the peak velocity data were recorded at
only one station. For peak values, the larger of the two
horizontal components has been used in this study (e.g.,
Table 2 Recorded earthquakes by the accelerograph stations in the southern DST region
Ser Date O.T. Lat. °N Long. °E M
L
Area
1 19790423 13:01 31.240 35.460 5 Dead Sea
2 19840824 06:02 32.660 35.180 5.3 Jordan Valley
3 19870427 20:41 31.290 35.487 4.2 Dead Sea
4 19871023 16:32 31.140 35.336 4.1 Dead Sea
5 19890103 17:10 32.479 35.461 3.9 Jordan Valley
6 19890106 10:59 32.456 35.483 3.7 Jordan Valley
7 19910928 00:43 31.077 35.505 3.9 Dead Sea
8 19930802 09:12 31.484 35.489 4.1 Dead Sea
9 19951226 06:19 28.890 34.610 5.0 Gulf of Aqaba
10 19970326 04:22 33.860 35.390 5.5 Lebanon
11 19970804 11:29 33.260 35.730 4.0 Lebanon
12 19930802 23:16 31.307 35.413 4.0 Dead Sea
13 19930803 12:31 28.938 34.747 5.0 Gulf of Aqaba
14 19930803 12:43 28.754 34.642 5.3 Gulf of Aqaba
15 19930803 13:23 28.684 34.736 4.3 Gulf of Aqaba
16 19930803 16:33 28.789 34.583 4.6 Gulf of Aqaba
17 19930820 23:10 28.568 34.782 4.6 Gulf of Aqaba
18 19940916 03:17 32.035 35.557 4.0 Gulf of Aqaba
19 19951122 04:15 28.758 34.628 6.2 Gulf of Aqaba
20 19951123 18:07 29.273 34.762 5.5 Gulf of Aqaba
21 19951124 16:45 29.172 34.735 5.4 Gulf of Aqaba
22 19951125 11:41 29.440 34.902 4.8 Gulf of Aqaba
23 19951129 08:10 29.238 34.833 4.7 Gulf of Aqaba
24 19951201 09:17 27.976 34.375 5.0 Gulf of Aqaba
25 19951202 00:47 29.291 34.879 4.7 Gulf of Aqaba
26 19960601 16:07 28.926 34.752 4.5 Gulf of Aqaba
27 19960703 20:11 29.231 34.869 4.4 Gulf of Aqaba
28 20000722 10:14 29.027 34.513 4.3 Gulf of Aqaba
29 20001225 01:57 28.522 34.572 4.5 Gulf of Aqaba
30 20010207 03:38 29.328 34.982 4.3 Gulf of Aqaba
O.T. origin time, M
L
local magnitude
Arab J Geosci

Table 3 Earthquake data used for the attenuation model of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity in the southern DST region
Ser Date O.T. M
L
PGA PGV Δ
a
Station
1 790423 13:01 5.0 11.4 – 39.6 MIZ
2 790423 13:01 5.0 11.2 – 56.2 KFR
3 790423 13:01 5.0 24.5 – 71.8 BNR
4 840824 06:02 5.3 29.3 – 17.8 IZR
5 840824 06:02 5.3 46.6 – 19.2 HAT
6 870427 20:41 4.2 7.3 – 10.1 DA2
7 871023 16:32 4.1 16.9 – 0.9 TUG
8 871023 16:32 4.1 19.9 – 7.0 DA1
9 871023 16:32 4.1 17.2 – 10.1 DA2
10 871023 16:32 4.1 8.6 – 16.3 DA3
11 890103 17:10 3.9 8.8 – 4.8 BET
12 890106 10:59 3.7 8.5 – 5.2 BET
13 910928 00:43 3.9 10.3 – 13.4 MIF
14 910928 00:43 3.9 9.3 – 16.4 NET
15 930802 09:12 4.1 12.3 – 34.0 ALM
16 930802 09:12 4.1 8.3 – 40.0 JER
17 930802 23:16 4.0 8.1 0.29 34.2 KRK
18 930803 12:31 5.0 2.0 0.28 70.8 ACD
19 930803 12:43 5.3 19.9 2.22 93.5 ACD
20 930803 13:23 4.3 11.8 0.65 98.0 ACD
21 930803 16:33 4.6 12.4 0.61 92.3 ACD
22 930820 23:10 4.6 1.7 0.12 109.4 AQH
23 940916 03:17 4.0 10.1 0.25 28.8 KTD
24 940916 03:17 4.0 17.9 0.34 45.7 MSH
25 940916 03:17 4.0 3.4 0.14 78.1 SRF
26 951122 04:15 6.2 157.0 8.56 93.3 AQH
27 951122 04:15 6.2 73.0 7.93 93.6 ACD
28 951122 04:15 6.2 93.0 – 94.4 EIL
29 951122 04:15 6.2 33.7 – 245.4 SVT
30 951122 04:15 6.2 36.8 – 320.4 ASQ
31 951122 04:15 6.2 14.4 – 321.3 MIZ
32 951122 04:15 6.2 18.9 3.18 330.6 HMM
33 951122 04:15 6.2 15.2 – 346.3 ALM
34 951122 04:15 6.2 3.1 0.42 377.2 AM6
35 951122 04:15 6.2 19.4 – 413.4 HAD
36 951122 04:15 6.2 5.9 0.81 436.7 YAU
37 951122 04:15 6.2 5.1 0.75 439.7 WAD
38 951122 04:15 6.2 9.3 – 443.3 ALN
39 951122 04:15 6.2 11.9 – 452.5 HAC
40 951122 04:15 6.2 5.2 – 505.5 GOS
41 951123 18:07 5.5 33.5 2.40 37.1 ACD
42 951123 18:07 5.5 42.1 – 36.5 EIL
43 951124 16:45 5.4 33.6 1.66 47.8 ACD
44 951125 11:41 4.8 6.3 0.45 14.3 ACD
45 951129 08:10 4.7 1.3 0.32 36.4 AQH
46 951201 09:17 5.0 3.0 0.32 183.4 AQH
47 951202 00:47 4.7 3.4 0.23 29.3 AQH
48 951226 06:19 5.0 8.7 – 81.0 EIL
49 960601 16:07 4.5 6.1 0.22 54.8 APS
50 960703 20:11 4.4 4.8 0.12 19.3 APS
51 970326 04:22 5.5 9.2 – 74.6 KIT
52 970326 04:22 5.5 9.3 – 75.0 GOS
53 970326 04:22 5.5 8.1
– 99.6 ZEF
54 970804 11:29 4.0 6.3 – 14.0 KIT
55 000722 10:14 4.3 13.0 0.21 59.3 APS
56 001225 01:57 4.5 3.1 0.11 103.0 APS
57 010207 03:38 4.3 5.3 0.15 5.8 APS
PGA peak ground acceleration (cm/s
2
), PGV peak ground velocity (cm/s)
a
Epicentral distance (km)
Arab J Geosci

Cramer and Darragh 1994), while others (e.g., Campbell
1981; Fukushima and Tanaka 1990) have used the mean of
the two components. The earthquakes used in this study are
listed in Tables 3 and 4. The M and R values are taken to be
local magnitude and epicentral distance, respectively.
Using the above procedure, the following attenuation
relation of peak horizontal acceleration and peak horizontal
velocity, respectively, for the southern DST region are
derived:
log A ¼3:45092 þ 0:49802M  0:38004 log RðÞ
 0:00253 RðÞ0:313P ð4:5Þ
log V ¼3:28773 þ 0:79450M  0:21966 log RðÞ
 0:00278 RðÞP ð4:6Þ
where V is the peak ground velocity. The other parameters
are as defined above.
Discussion and conclusions
Seismic hazard assessment is an effort to evaluate the
likelihood of an earthquake occurrence and its magnitude
and intensities in and around locatio n of interest and
severity of strong ground motions expected for a certain
return period. In the last decades, seismic strong motion
studies have been newly e valuated to elucidate the
processes of seismic wave generation and propagation as
well as site effect characteristics due to large earthquakes.
The reliable assessment of seismic risk in a region
requires knowledge and understanding of both the seis mic-
ity and the attenuation of strong ground motion. The recent
expansion of accelerograph stations throughout the DST
region resulted in the recording of several accelerograms in
the near-source region of moderate to large earthquakes, an
area where data have been severely lacking in the past. The
attenuation relation developed in this study for estimating
peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity in the
southern DST region are proposed as replacement for
former probabilistic relations that used historical data. Both
deterministic and probabilistic approaches are often used
3 6 10 60 100301 300 600 1000
Distance (km)
1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.005
0.002
0.001
Peak Ground Acceleration (g)
M 5
M 6
M 7
Fig. 2 Attenuation curves of peak horizontal acceleration from 57
recordings of 30 earthquakes (1979–2001) in the southern Dead Sea
Transform region for magnitudes 5, 6, and 7
Table 6 Peak ground acceleration (cm/s
2
) from different equations for
M
L
=7 and three selected epicentral distance
Reference PGA at
Δ=10 km
Δ=50 km Δ=100 km
Amrat (1996) 661.5
a
258.8
a
81
a
198.4
b
77.7
b
24.3
b
Malkawi and
Fahmi (1996)
1153.4 308.6 127.5
Al-Tarazi and
Qadan (1997)
690 313.3 184.6
This study 362.6 155.8 89
a
For alluvium site
b
For limestone site
Table 4 Peak ground acceleration (cm/s
2
) from different equations for
M
L
=5 and three selected epicentral distance
Reference PGA at Δ=
10 km
Δ=50 km Δ=100 km
Amrat (1996) 132
a
51.6
a
16.2
a
39.6
b
15.5
b
4.9
b
Malkawi and
Fahmi (1996)
70 18.7 7.7
Al-Tarazi and
Qadan (1997)
11.2 5.1 3
This study 43 18 10.6
a
For alluvium site
b
For limestone site
Table 5 Peak ground acceleration (cm/s
2
) from different equations for
M
L
=6 and three selected epicentral distance
Reference PGA at
Δ=10 km
Δ=50 km Δ=100 km
Amrat (1996) 295.5
a
115.6
a
36.2
a
88.7
b
34.7
b
10.9
b
Malkawi and
Fahmi (1996)
341.8 91.5 37.8
Al-Tarazi and
Qadan (1997)
115.6 52.5 30.9
This study 135.5 58.2 33.4
a
For alluvium site
b
For limestone site
Arab J Geosci

for a variety of earthquake engineering as well as
engineering seismology.
The method used in this study to derive attenuation
relations in the southern DST region is based on the strong
motion records. It would be expected to produce the most
representative model corresponding to real ground motions.
The resultant attenuation curves of peak ground accelera-
tion are shown in Figure 2 for three different magnitude
classes. No obvious differences in trend are apparent among
the different magnitude classes, giving no support to the
idea that the shape of the attenuation curves depends upon
magnitude. Tables 4, 5, and 6 summarize the comparison
between the derived peak ground acceleration equation
from this study with the aforementioned equations for
selected local magnitude of 5, 6, and 7 and three epicentral
distances. The peak ground acceleration equation of this
study clearly shows significant lower values than the other
equations.
Acknowledgments An anonymous reviewer sent extensive and very
useful comments and suggestions. The support and encouragement of
all these people is gratefully acknowledged.
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