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The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment
... The [8] and the evolution of forecasts (mean alternative) of the UN on the population of the world from the data in ( 2 )—[9]; ness of the majority of known forecasts made 5 − 20 years ago, which predicted exceptionally high growth rates of world energy consumption, was demonstrated in [1]; over the past few years, this became more evident. In our paper, we will consider only the more moderate appraisals: scenario IS92a of the Inter- Parliament Commission for Changes in the Climate (IPCC) [12]; base scenario B of the World Energy Council (WEC) [13]; and our proposal [2]. They are shown inFig. 2 together with the statistical data of the UN on power engineering [14] supplemented for the years 1999 and 2000 with information from the review on World Energy BP Amoco [15]. ...
... Thus, today, we have no grounds to believe that, in the near future, world energy consumption, and consequently Fig. 2. Emissions of carbon S in burning fossil fuel and the consumption of commercial energy E in the world in the last decade. ( 1 ) Actual values (calculated from the data in [14, 15] ) and forecasts: ( 2 ) IPCC [12]; ( 3 ) LGPE MEI [16] consumption of energy in the world from the data in [14, 15] for the last 50 years ( 1 ) and energy consumption in the next century. Forecasts: ( 2 )—WEC/IIASA [18]; ( 3 )—LGPE [16]; ( 4 )—IPCC [19] house gas emissions, will rise at the same rates as before 1980. ...
... 2, we find the evolution of CO 2 emissions in the world in 1990–2000 (recalculated for carbon) when burning fossil fuel. The calculations were made on the basis of data in [14, 15] together with forecasted estimates obtained by the experts of IPCC [12] and also calculated values corresponding to the main scenario of WEC [13] and the base forecast of LGPE [2]. In accordance with the scenario IPCC IS92a, the increase in annual world emissions of carbon dioxide from energy sources during the past decade should amount to about 1 billion t of C, whereas, according to the estimates of LGPE and WEC, it is less than 0.8 billion t of C. In actually, the growth amounted to about 0.65 billion t of C, which is less than the most moderate estimates. ...
A comparative analysis of different forecasts for the development of power engineering and its influence on the environment and the climate has been made. The data for the last decade of the XX century convincingly indicate that the growth rate of the negative impact of power engineering on them has decreased, which points to the high probability of accomplishing moderate scenarios of global changes, in particular those developed at MEI.
... In 1992, the panel developed six alternative emission scenarios by considering a range of assumptions about factors that could influence future CO2 emission levels. These factors included population and economic growth, structural changes in economies, energy prices, technological advancements, and fossil fuel sources [23]. These scenarios, collectively known as the IS92a-to-f scenarios, extend to the year 2100 and encompass emissions of other greenhouse-related gases in addition to CO2. ...
... The 1751-2014historic emission record is from Ref.[24]. The 2015-2100 future predictions of scenario IS92a are from Ref.[23] ...
Understanding the dynamics of model behavior in response to changes in input parameters is pivotal, especially within complex models featuring an array of input factors. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) serves as a fundamental methodology for elucidating and quantifying the fluctuations in model behavior corresponding to variations in model input factors. In situations where models incorporate a wide range of input factors, identifying the most influential variables is of utmost importance. Although the employment of graphical tools to encapsulate SA findings is gaining traction, it remains a relatively new and evolving approach. The advancement of graphical representations significantly enhances the understanding of SA outcomes. Within this work, an exploration into the efficacy of two modern graphical techniques, specifically star plots and dot charts, as tools for SA is undertaken. These visual aids provide a clear representation of key input factors, thereby accelerating the comprehension process. To showcase their utility in SA, these techniques are applied to two distinct compartmental models elucidating the dynamics of the global carbon cycle.
... Emission of N2O have been increasing at high rate by global warming (Kroeze, 1994). Temperature increase at the earth's surface may give rise to enhanced microbial N2O emissions (Change, 1992). Nitrous oxide is an important GHG which has a global warming potential 310 times that of CO2 over a hundred- ...
... year lifespan (He and Zhang, 2013). Use of synthetic fertilizers may result in N2O emissions Responses of photosynthetic and growth characteristics of Chinese tallow tree (Triadica sebifera) from different provenances to soil nutrients and microorganisms 8 in different ways (Change, 1992). More N2O emission from the litter of invasive species and more nitrogenous compounds released by human activity into the atmosphere make changing in the atmospheric pattern and causing warming (Dukes and Mooney, 1999). ...
Plant invasion is one of the factors of global change, threatening ecosystem services and functions. Invasive plants are different in physiological characteristics, which make them have a strong competitive advantage in resource utilization and resistance to environmental stress, hence higher N2O emission. The fluorescence characteristics of chlorophyll are closely related to the photosynthesis efficiency of plants and play an important role in plant growth. Soil microorganisms are essential for plants to absorb and utilize soil nutrients. Understanding how soil microbes affect the chlorophyll fluorescence characteristics of invasive plants under the background of nitrogen deposition is helpful to understand the evolutionary characteristics and invasion mechanisms, to effectively prevent and control invasive plants and reduce it and provides a theoretical basis for the damage to the ecosystem.
In this experiment, seeds of Triadica sebifera (T. sebifera) were collected from the introduced (United States) and native (China) range. Soils were collected from the experimental field of T. sebifera, and non-heating greenhouse experiment was conducted in the native range of T. sebifera at Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang. The performed experiments studied the effect of fertilizer, microbial inhibitors (bacteria and fungi) or their interaction on the performance of T. sebifera origin, soil enzyme activities, photosynthesis and N2O emission rates. Full factorial experimental design was employed. The net effects of nitrogen deposition, and soil microbial inhibitors on the growth of T. sebifera seedlings were analyzed by measuring the growth, biomass, morphological characteristics and chlorophyll fluorescence of the T. sebifera seedlings. The effects of different treatment interacted with T. sebifera origin on N2O emission rate were studied.
Native and introduced populations of T. sebifera had similar above-and belowground biomass in active (control) soil but soil sterilization decreased them, especially for native populations. Urease activity was higher for native population plants in active soils but an opposite pattern was found in sterilized soil. Belowground biomass specific phosphatase activities were increased by soil sterilization, especially for native populations or when both N and P were added.
Nitrogen deposition significantly increased the relative chlorophyll content (SPAD) of T. sebifera, the maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm), non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) and half-saturated light intensity (IK). The invasive T. sebifera has lower SPAD than the native. The combined application of nitrogen deposition and bacterial inhibitors significantly enhanced Fv/Fm, NPQ and IK, and significantly weakened the light energy utilization rate α and SPAD. Bacterial inhibitors slowed down the α of native T. sebifera, and fungal inhibitors promoted the IK of native T. sebifera and inhibited the invasive T. sebifera IK.
In the N application treatment, leaf biomass and leaf numbers were significantly increased, and decrease was noted in root biomass and root/shoot ratio than those from the control treatment. Root/shoot was found higher in control for invasive population than those from native population but opposite pattern was found with N application. Bacterial and fungal inhibitor increased the root, leaf, aboveground and total biomass but it was remaining higher in fungal inhibitor than those from any other treatments. Bacterial and fungal inhibitors or their interaction respectively decreased the N2O emission and cumulative rate, higher in control treatment and lower in bacterial interaction fungal inhibitor. In case of T. sebifera origin, higher N2O emission and cumulative rate was noted in invasive than native. Nitrous oxide emissions were positive correlated to temperature or plant traits, while negatively correlated to moisture and leaf area ratio.
In conclusion, the dependence of soil enzyme activities on the interactions of soil sterilization, soil fertility and plant population origin suggest that there may have been genetic changes in soil enzyme activities during the invasion process. Because urease and phosphatase showed distinct patterns, T. sebifera may have acquired different strategies for the utilization of soil nitrogen and phosphorus, which likely has implications for understanding and managing invasions. Microbial facilitation and nutrients use efficiency of T. sebifera should be considered for future management under global climate change. Increased nitrogen deposition may interact with soil microorganism impacting the invasion process of T. sebifera. Plant soil feedback process and microbial communities both may affect successful invasion process of T. sebifera. Such as, Nitrogen deposition and fungal inhibitors have a synergistic effect on the chlorophyll fluorescence characteristics of T. sebifera, therefore has strong invasion ability. Microbial dynamics, N availability and increases in temperature may be the main reason of N2O emission, which can be affected by introduced population and may vary to ecosystem type.
... Soil moisture is an important element in hydrological cycle which is closely related to water and energy transfer between soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. It has been shown that much of the global warming so far was at night (Karl et al., 1991(Karl et al., , 1993Folland et al., 1992;Stenchikov and Robock, 1995;Robock et al., 2000). So at least models with diurnal cycle are needed to correctly simulate SM. ...
... Furthermore, when plotting the results for a large number of catchments, variables with the largest means tend to dominate the display. As discussed by Friendly and Kwan (2003), scaling axes can obviously lead to an incoherent display in which no systematic trends or relations can be distinguished. There-fore although as shown in Liu et al. (2008), scaling may bring the uncertainty of the results, we still use the normalized SM for trend analysis, in order to make a better comparison with other CEH variables. ...
For integrative management of soil and water in the Wuding River basin, Loess plateau, China, where severe soil erosion damages are incurred, the ecohydrological behavior of the region is needed to be explored. In this study we focus on the evolution of soil moisture (SM) in the basin. Since there are only twelve years in-situ SM measurements available at two stations from 1992 to 2004, an eco-hydrological processes-based model (VIP, Vegetation Interface Processes model) is employed to simulate the long-term SM, evapotranspiration (ET), vegetation cover and production variation from 1956 to 2004, for the mechanical analysis of SM change. In-situ SM observations and a remotely sensed SM dataset retrieved by the Vienna University of Technology are used to validate the model. The results show that the model is able to capture seasonal SM variations. The seasonal pattern, multi-year variation, standard deviation and CV (coefficient of the variation) of SM at the daily, monthly and annual scale are well explained by the climatic and ecological factors such as precipitation, temperature, net radiation, evapotranspiration, and Leaf Area Index (LAI, denoted as LAI). The annual and inter-annual variability of SM is the lowest comparing with that for other 11-ecohydrological variables. The trend analysis shows that SM is in decreasing tendency at ∝=0.01 level of significance. Its significance is lower than that of runoff and that of temperature (∝=0.001), whereas higher than that of precipitation (∝=0.1). The products of these long-term SM data aim to help integrative management of soil and water resources.
... Therefore, starting with the historical atmospheric CO 2 con-resolution) sulphur inventory, sulphur emissions trajectories were determined above each sector for centration taken from Etheridge et al. (1996) and the CH 4 concentration based on Nakazawa et al. each latitudinal band of our model. Such trajectories were then used to compute the sulphate concen-(1993), we have calculated the equivalent CO 2 concentration from the formulations given in tration using a linear interpolation linking the two Moguntia sulphate concentration fields to the Houghton et al. (1990Houghton et al. ( , 1992Houghton et al. ( , 1995. The time evolution of the atmospheric equivalent CO 2 con-sulphur emission inventory. ...
... Therefore, starting with the historical atmospheric CO 2 con-resolution) sulphur inventory, sulphur emissions trajectories were determined above each sector for centration taken from Etheridge et al. (1996) and the CH 4 concentration based on Nakazawa et al. each latitudinal band of our model. Such trajectories were then used to compute the sulphate concen-(1993), we have calculated the equivalent CO 2 concentration from the formulations given in tration using a linear interpolation linking the two Moguntia sulphate concentration fields to the Houghton et al. (1990Houghton et al. ( , 1992Houghton et al. ( , 1995. The time evolution of the atmospheric equivalent CO 2 con-sulphur emission inventory. ...
Seventy-one sensitivity experiments have been performed using a two-dimensional sectoraveragedglobal climate model to assess the potential impact of six different factors on the lastmillennium climate and in particular on the surface air temperature evolution. Both natural(i.e, solar and volcanism) and anthropogenically-induced (i.e. deforestation, additional greenhousegases, and tropospheric aerosol burden) climate forcings have been considered.Comparisons of climate reconstructions with model results indicate that all the investigatedforcings are needed to simulate the surface air temperature evolution. Due to uncertainties inhistorical climate forcings and temperature reconstructions, the relative importance of a particularforcing in the explanation of the recorded temperature variance is largely function of theforcing time series used. Nevertheless, our results indicate that whatever the historical solar andvolcanic reconstructions may be, these externally driven natural climate forcings are unable togive climate responses comparable in magnitude and time to the late–20th-century temperaturewarming while for earlier periods combination of solar and volcanic forcings can explain theLittle Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Only the greenhouse gas forcing allows themodel to simulate an accelerated warming rate during the last three decades. The best guesssimulation (largest similarity with the reconstruction) for the period starting 1850 AD requireshowever to include anthropogenic sulphate forcing as well as the impact of deforestation toconstrain the magnitude of the greenhouse gas twentieth century warming to better fit theobservation. On the contrary, prior to 1850 AD mid-latitude land clearance tends to reinforcethe Little Ice age in our simulations. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.00287.x
... The importance of functional sustainable forests has been underlined by a number of international cooperations and resolutions (CIPRA 1997, Ministerial Conference for the Protection of European Forests 1998). Discussions on a likely global climate change gave rise to concerns about possible impacts on forest ecosystems (Houghton et al. 1992). ...
... With the point-specific residual, the precipitation-altitude relationship and the altitude of the point of interest a precipitation value can then be recalculated for each AFI-plot. For the present study it is planned to derive transient climate change scenarios for AFI sample plots from simulation runs of the global circulation model ECHAM4 under several scenarios of the IPCC (Houghton et al. 1992). Since the spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) is too coarse to directly derive reliable regional climate change projections statistical downscaling methods (e.g. ...
The methodological framework of a large-scale risk assessment for Austrian forests under scenarios of climatic change is presented. A recently developed 3D-patch model is initialized with ground-true soil and vegetation data from sample plots of the Austrian Forest Inventory (AFI). Temperature and precipitation data of the current climate are interpolated from a network of more than 600 weather stations to the sample plots of the AFI. Vegetation development is simulated under current climate ("control run") and under climate change scenarios starting from today's forest composition and structure. Similarity of species composition and accumulated biomass between these two runs at various points in time were used as assessment criteria. An additive preference function which is based on Saaty's AHP is employed to synthesize these criteria to an overall index of the adaptation potential of current forests to a changing climate. The presented methodology is demonstrated for a small sample from the Austrian Forest Inventory. The forest model successfully simulated equilibrium species composition under current climatic conditions spatially explicit in a heterogenous landscape based on ground-true data. At none of the simulated sites an abrupt forest dieback did occur due to climate change impacts. However, substantial changes occured with regard to species composition of the potential natural vegetation (PNV).
... It is the CO 2 concentration that is the most important parameter that is directly used in air temperature simulations in all climatic models; therefore, the accuracy of its determination is the crucial factor for such modeling efforts.Figure 3 shows that the genetic forecast made it possible to predict the CO 2 concentration without any correction in the last 25 years with unprecedented accuracy (to within 1%), which is equivalent to the [17], (2) [16], and (3) [27]. IPCC scenarios: (4) B2, (5) A1B [10], (6) RCP 4.5, and (7) RCP 6 [11] [35]; scenarios: (2) high and (3) low by Möller [32], (4) IPCC IS92a [8], (5) A2, (6) B2 [10], and (7) " historical " [39] Since the genetic forecast exhibits a surprising staa bility and does not require frequent correcting with time, one can suppose that it will demonstrate similar results during at least the next several decades. In this connection, it is interesting to look at the results of this forecast to the end of the current century [27]. ...
... For examm ple, the earliest work [32], which relied on apparently overestimated (from the modern point of view) estii mates of future coal and oil consumption (8.5–11 bill lion tce/year in 2000 and 11–15 billion tce/year in 2030) and underestimated future rates of implementt ing environmental protection technologies in energy industry, predicted an increase in emission of sulfur oxides in the first three decades of the 21st century to 230 million t SO 2 /year and an insignificant decrease in them only by 2050 even in the most ecological scee nario (Fig. 5). The same shortcomings were evidently inherent to the IS92a IPCC scenario [8] as well, which was long employed in climatic studies as a basic one and supp posed the pollutants emissions control at the internaa tional scale and emission decrease in developing countries to the middle of the 21st century. Even now it is quite clear that, despite qualitatively valid hypothh eses forming the base of the scenario, it predicted strongly overestimated emission values—for example, for 2010, it suggested a value of 190 million t SO 2 , which exceeds the actually reached values by 40% (seeFig. ...
Abstract—It has been established that the historical approach to world energy forecasting can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes reaching a plateau of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almost to 500 parts per million by the end of the century against the background of a continuing decrease in sulfur dioxide emission. From the historical point of view, the implementation of the most aggressive scenarios of human impact on the atmosphere and climate seems very unlikely.
... However, significant uncertainties remain in the global N 2 O budget [3], primarily due to substantial spatial and temporal variations in the biogenic N 2 O in-/out-flux. Historically, the known inputs (i.e., sources) of atmospheric N 2 O have been lower than the known outputs (i.e., sinks) [4][5][6][7][8], indicating that either the known input fluxes have been underestimated or unidentified sources may exist. Biogenic N 2 O production has traditionally been attributed solely to microbial nitrogen transformations, specifically nitrification, nitrifier-denitrification, and denitrification processes. ...
Soil microorganisms have long been recognized as primary producers of biogenic N2O in terrestrial ecosystems. Terrestrial plants can contribute to N2O emissions by transporting N2O produced in soils, and there is also evidence that plants may serve as direct producers of N2O. However, to date, direct evidence for N2O production by plants remains limited. To exclude N2O emissions resulting from soil-to-plant transport, this study conducted incubation experiments using cut soybean branches and leaves (cSBF) and intact soil cores under an N2O-free air background. The natural isotopic signatures (δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O) and fluxes of N2O produced by cSBF and soil were compared across different soybean growth stages over two growing seasons. The observed δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O values of N2O from soil ranged from −26.7‰ to −5.3‰ and −24.1‰ to 22.8‰, respectively. In contrast, the values for N2O produced from cSBF ranged from −4.7‰ to 33.1‰ and from 23.7‰ to 88.8‰, respectively. Notably, N2O emitted from plants exhibited significantly higher δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O values than soil-derived N2O (p < 0.05). These findings indicate that the pathways and mechanisms of N2O production and emission in soybean plants differ from those mediated by soil microorganisms and nitrogen transport processes. Additionally, a significantly higher amount of N2O emission was observed during early growth stages compared to late growth stages (p < 0.01), suggesting that plant N2O production may be associated with elevated water content and oxygen-limited conditions within plant cells. In addition to the N2O uptake by plants observed in some literature, the positive relationship between δ¹⁵N values and N2O fluxes suggests that N2O could be consumed in plant cells (p < 0.01), with a high consumption rate often associated with a high production rate. The results of this study provide compelling evidence that plants may represent an overlooked source of N2O in terrestrial ecosystems.
... Como resultado, se obtuvieron correlaciones (R 2 ) en M1 y M2 de 0.91 y 0.66 (Tabla 6). Esto indica que el incremento en el flux de CH4 fue posiblemente debido a efectos de sobresaturación de la concentración de CH4 disuelto en el agua, e igualmente por un aumento de la producción de metano en los sedimentos, el cual pudo ser transportados por mecanismos de ebullición a la atmósfera, tal como lo indican Ding et al. (2005) Segun a Houghton et al. (1992) la producción de metano en humedales ocurre principalmente en la superficie de los sedimentos y es regulada por la actividad microbiana en ambiente anaerobios. Considerando que factores como la temperatura en la superficie de los sedimentos y potencial redox no difirieron significativamente en M1 y M2, se podría inferir que la producción de metano disuelto fue más alta en M2, debido al aporte de materia orgánica no viva que proporcionaron las plantas acuáticas, la cual sirve como sustrato para los microorganismos encargados de la producción de metano, tal como lo sugiere Schütz et al. (1989), Amaral & Knowles (1994) y Zhang et al. (2014). ...
En esta investigación se estudió la emisión y secuestro del carbono en dos mesocosmos construidos simulando la calidad de agua de un humedal natural eutrofizado. El primer mesocosmos (M1) estuvo ausente de plantas acuáticas, mientras que el segundo mesocosmos (M2) estuvo plantado con Eichhornia crassipes. Como metodología se planteó un balance de masa en estado estacionario, donde se evaluaron flux de CO2 y CH4, y las entradas y salidas de carbono en el agua, esto se hizo con el objetivo de definir si las unidades experimentales actuaban como fuente o sumidero de carbono. El estudio se realizó en un periodo de tiempo de 85 días en horas entre las 11:00 a.m. y la 1:00 p.m. Como resultados, las medianas de los flux de CO2 fueron de 76 y de 12 mg.m-2.h-1 en M1 y M2; y las medianas de los flux de CH4 fueron de 1.19 y 0.69 mg.m-2.h�1 en M1 y M2. El balance de masa confirmo que M1 y M2 actuaron como sumideros de carbono, en ambos sistemas los flujos másicos de acumulación de carbono en los sedimentos fueron de 6.51 y 9.57mg C h-1. Adicionalmente se evaluaron los flux diarios de CO2 y CH4 en un periodo de 68 horas consecutivas. Los resultados obtenidos demostraron que M1 y M2 actuaron como consumidores de CO2 durante el día y como emisores de CO2 durante la noche; mientras las emisiones de CH4 presentaron
una tendencia a disminuir en horas nocturnas. En este estudio se concluye que los humedales construidos y naturales son sistemas
almacenadores de carbono, presentando un papel fundamental en la regulación de ese ciclo. Además la presencia de plantas acuáticas representa un factor importante, ya que acelera las tasas de captura de CO2 y la acumulación de carbono en los sedimentos.
... There are many published climate scenarios from different scientists and organisations (Carter et al., 2007). Those developed or approved by the IPCC are commonly used and include the scientific assessment emission scenarios developed in 1990 (SA90), the six IPCC Scenarios developed in 1992 (IS92) (Change, 1992), the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (Van Vuuren et al., 2011). ...
Climate change is undeniable and constitutes one of the major threats of the 21st century. It impacts sectors of our society, usually negatively, and is likely to worsen towards the middle and end of the century. The agricultural sector is of particular concern, for it is the primary source of food and is strongly dependent on the weather. Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on African agriculture because of the continent’s high vulnerability, which is mainly due to its low adaptation capac- ity. Several studies have been implemented to evaluate the impact of climate change on this continent. The results are sometimes controversial since the studies are based on different approaches, climate models and crop yield datasets. This study attempts to contribute substantially to this large topic by suggesting specific types of climate pre- dictors. The study focuses on tropical Africa and its maize yield. Maize is considered to be the most important crop in this region. To estimate the effect of climate change on maize yield, the study began by developing a robust cross-validated multiple linear regression model, which related climate predictors and maize yield. This statistical trans- fer function is reputed to be less prone to overfitting and multicollinearity problems. It is capable of selecting robust predictors, which have a physical meaning. Therefore, the study combined: large-scale predictors, which were derived from the principal component analysis of the monthly precipitation and temperature; traditional local-scale predictors, mainly, the mean precipitation, mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature; and the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), derived from the specific crop (maize) water balance model. The projected maize-yield change is forced by a regional climate model (RCM) REMO under two emission scenarios: high emission scenario (RCP8.5) and mid-range emission scenario (RCP4.5). The different effects of these groups of predictors in projecting the future maize-yield changes were also assessed. Furthermore, the study analysed the impact of climate change on the global WRSI. The results indicate that almost 27 % of the interannual variability of maize production of the entire region is explained by climate variables. The influence of climate predictors on maize-yield production is more pronounced in West Africa, reaching 55 % in some areas. The model projection indicates that the maize yield in the entire region is expected to decrease by the middle of the century under an RCP8.5 emission scenario, and from the middle of the century to the end of the century, the production will slightly recover but will remain negative (around -10 %). However, in some regions of East Africa, a slight increase in maize yield is expected. The maize-yield projection under RCP4.5 remains relatively unchanged compared to the baseline period (1982-2016). The results further indicate that large-scale predictors are the most critical drivers of the global year-to-year maize-yield variability, and ENSO – which is highly correlated with the most important predictor (PC2) – seems to be the physical process underlying this variability. The effects of local predictors are more pronounced in the eastern parts of the region. The impact of the future climate change on WRSI reveals that the availability of maize water is expected to decrease everywhere, except in some parts of eastern Africa.
... This phenomenon is associated with the increase of the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs, mainly carbon dioxide -CO 2 ) due to anthropogenic activities. Carbon dioxide emissions result primarily from combustion of fossil fuels, but forest degradation and deforestation are also the contributing sources (Houghton et al. 1992). Climate change impacts are associated with risks to the satisfaction of basic human needs (health, food security and clean water), as well as risks to development (jobs, economic growth and the cost of living) (Pires 2017). ...
Both COP21 and COP22 stressed the role of forests in climate protection as a natural CO 2 sink. With this in mind, the study reviewed some literature findings related to afforestation, stand level management, forest soils, peatland management and storage yards to increase the amount of CO 2 absorbed by the forest ecosystem. It was shown that some of the assumptions, for example, afforestation or improved water relations in soils, may contribute to reduced CO 2 levels in the atmosphere. Our research was of a review nature and consisted in seeking information in various scientific publications. For a better interpretation of the results, we have divided our research into several parts. In the first part, we analysed the importance of deforestation and afforestation in the context of CO 2 accumulation. We discussed the results of research on these issues giving specific examples. We have analysed the possibility of afforestation of new land. Using the example of Poland, we have indicated problems related to this issue. We have analysed the possibility of afforestation of new land. On the example of Poland, we have indicated problems related to this problem. We have come to the conclusion that in today's Europe, the obstacle to such efforts is the lack of land that can be afforested and the financial incentive to abandon farming for forestry is too low. In the second part, we discussed the role of forest stands in the process of CO 2 accumulation and reduction. We discussed breeding treatments that can be performed on racks. We noticed their importance in the CO 2 reduction process. We noticed that when the density of forests increased, this has a positive effect on organic carbon storage. We presented and discussed examples of different rotation strategies in the context of their impact on CO 2 accumulation. We analysed issues related to obtaining wood raw material and possible further storage of coal or its release into the atmosphere. We have recognized that proper forest soil management is important for CO 2 accumulation. Therefore, another part of the research was devoted to the discussion on the role of soil in the process of CO 2 accumulation. We discussed examples of using soil for forest and non-forest purposes, looking for the answer: how does this affect CO 2 accumulation? In addition, we analysed the impact of soil moisture on processes related to CO 2 storage. In our research, we critically treated wood storage as a method of reducing CO 2. We also discussed the problem of treating wood as a source of bioenergy. We came to the conclusion that wood as an energy source can have a positive effect on CO 2 reduction. The condition is, however, that energy produced from wood replaces energy from fossil fuels. Finally, we presented and discussed financial and legal issues related to CO 2 reduction activities involving forests. We have found that attempts to commercialize CO 2 emission reduction units for emissions generated in forests should be linked to the environmental responsibility of companies, and as such, should not be included in the current
... Carbon dioxide is also added to the atmosphere from a variety of other related sources [2]. Researchers have stated concern about the possible climatic chances of current and future concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere [3]. The increased carbon dioxide concentrations has been said to be responsible for global warming. ...
... NO x species are precursor compounds for the formation of surface ozone which has been shown to cause adverse health effects when inhaled [1]. It was shown that the contribution of NOx to greenhouse gases is 260 times greater than that of CO 2 for a time horizons of 20 years [2,3]. Nitrogen oxides (NO, NO 2 ) emissions are mainly produced from combustion of fossil fuel, especially, from coal. ...
Coal, as a typical fossil fuel, is a current major contributor to the global emission of nitrogen oxides (NOx). The NOx formation process during coal utilisation can be described as the thermal decomposition of N-containing model compounds into NOx precursors followed by NOx formation. The existence of alkali metal ions, Na⁺ and K⁺, during the coal utilisation process has a significant influence on the formation of NOx species. However, the information about this influence is currently lacking within the available literature. Within this research, the effect of Na⁺ and K⁺ on the formation mechanism of NOx during pyrrole pyrolysis were investigated using density functional theory (DFT). A hydrogen migration occurs from the meta-position of pyrrole-N is transferred to the ortho-position, and then pyrrole-N disconnected from the ortho-position C, which makes the ring opened. Lastly, in a concerted mechanism, a long carbon bond breaking between the migrating hydrogen and the carbon, nitrogen atoms. It was found that Na⁺ and K⁺ have a catalytic effect on the internal hydrogen transfer and ring-opening of pyrrole but have an inhibitory effect on internal hydrogen isomerization and concerted decomposition reaction. It was also found that those alkali metal ions (Na⁺ and K⁺) have strong interactions with pyrrole and its derived compounds (HCN and propyne molecules), those interactions are much larger than the existing attractive interactions among HCN, propyne molecules and their complexes. Additionally, it was found that both Na⁺ and K⁺ inhibit the HCN formation step from pyrrole pyrolysis, with Na⁺, has a higher inhibition effect than that of K⁺. Furthermore, the mechanisms discussed in this research may well play a role in the thermal decomposition of other coal compounds such as indole and carbazole.
... Firstly, it prevents the emission of carbon which would be caused by decomposition of the forest biomass. It has been estimated that deforestation contributes to 30% of the current global CO 2 emissions (Houghton et al. 1992). Secondly, conservation prevents the reduction in areas with potential for active carbon sequestration. ...
... r the yields, the higher rainfall could enhance the growing period of crops. At the same time, the higher concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere under changed climatic conditions might act as an aerial fertilizer and enhancs crop yields. All these factors have to be taken into consideration while examining the climate change impact on agriculture.Houghton et al. (1996)stated that scientific evidence indicates that due to increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the climate conditions of the Earth is changing; temperature is increasing and the amount and distribution of rainfall is being altered. A scenario of simulated results indicated that greenhouse gas emissions could rise by ...
... reported by Houweling et al. (1999). About 2/3 rd of global methane emission from anthropogenic sources comes from agricultural sector alone (Watson et al. 1992, Duxbury et al. 1993 including enteric fermentation (80Tg), rice cultivation (60-100 Tg), biomass burning (40Tg) and animal wastes (25Tg). Among the agricultural sources, livestock emanate a considerable amount of methane in the tune of 75-80 Tg (28% of global emissions) as documented by EPA (2009) and Chhabra et al. (2009). ...
Atmospheric concentration methane is almost 1782 ppb, which is 155% higher than its pre industrial concentration. Agricultural sector dispensing a consequential amount of methane (about 2/3rd of total anthropogenic); livestock rearing generates 7-12 Tg methane annually from the country. The methane generation from ruminants not only contributes significantly to global warming but also leads a loss of dietary energy (7-12% of GEI). This loss needs attention, where acute shortage of quality feeds prevails. Efforts were made in the past to control the enteric methane emission using customary feeding approaches including chemicals and methane analogues, but most of them dubitable with one or more critical limitations like few respond at high doses, toxicity to either host animal or inhabited synergistic microbes etc. Therefore, the search for suitable, effective and safe methane mitigating agent is still ongoing, and extensive screenings of newer strategies are on radar of animal nutritionist and microbiologists in association with biotechnologists for abatement of methane emission from ruminants. This review paper examines the biological approaches such as reductive acetogenesis, immunization, phage therapy, defaunation, disabling the protein bindings accountable for association of methanogens with other microorganisms in rumen. In conclusion, there is the foremost need to explore the potentialities of state-of-the-art biological approaches under in vivo and with topographical variations.
... The scenario experiment used in this study applies a greenhouse forcing corresponding to the observed one for 1850 until the present day, and thereafter the CO 2 concentration increases at a rate of 1% per year until the year 2100 (IPCC " IS92a " forcing scenario, Houghton et al. 1992). Further, this experiment includes the direct effect of sulfate aerosols. ...
Statistical downscaling models for precipitation in Scania, southern Sweden, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in the future Scanian precipitation climate due to projected changes in the atmospheric composition. The models are based on multiple linear regression, linking large-scale predictors at monthly time resolution to regional statistics of daily precipitation on a monthly basis. To account for spatial precipitation variability within the area, the precipitation statistics were derived for different regions in Scania. The final downscaling models, developed for different regions and seasons, use atmospheric circulation, large-scale humidity and precipitation as predictors. Among the precipitation statistics examined, only the models for estimating the mean precipitation and the frequency of wet days were skilful. Based on the Canadian Global Circulation Model 1 (CGCM1), a future scenario of these two statistics was created. The downscaled scenario shows a significant increase of the annual mean precipitation by about 10% and a slight decrease in the frequency of wet days, indicating an increase in the precipitation amounts as well as in the precipitation intensity. The main increase of precipitation amounts and intensity occur during winter, while the summer precipitation amounts decrease slightly. The seasonal changes found in precipitation are likely attributed to changes in the westerly flow of the atmospheric circulation.
... Nitrous oxide emissions are an environmental concern. Houghton et al. (1992) stated that N2O is approximately 200 times more efficient than CO2 in absorbing infrared radiation. Methane, another strong greenhouse gas, is only 26 times more efficient than CO2 in absorbing infrared radiation. Furthermore, N2O contributes to the reduction of ozone in the stratosphere through the photochemical decomposition of N2O to ...
The paper describes the regime and dynamics of the soil moisture content of sandy soils in Záhorská lowland during different growing seasons. Research plots are situated near Kamenný mlyn, approximately 3 km from Plavecký Štvrtok and 8 km southward from the town of Malacky. Changes in the soil moisture content are described by soil moisture constants (MCC, PDA, WP) and its relation to atmospheric precipitation and to the character of undergrowth is shown. The low water-holding capacity of sandy soils and their high drainage together with dense root system do not allow the sufficient saturation of soil during the growing season. The low wilting point value (2%) leads to the consumption of all available water in the soil. The most frequent is the semiarid interval of soil moisture (PDA –WP) with reduced availability of water to plants (> pF 3.1). The arid interval (< WP) occurrence on hot summer days results in a decrease in transpiration and assimilation intensity of plants, their physiological weakening and premature fall of assimilation organs.
This paper describes an eco-load and cost optimization for co-generation systems with the aid of the LCA-NETS (Life Cycle Assessment-Numerical Eco-load Total Standardization) method as a numerical measure evaluating the environmental load. The LCA-NETS method that proposed here quantitatively describes total impacts on the environment during the lifecycle, in which the numerical value is calculated according to the " Loader-Receiver tolerant balance theory ". The application of this method is used to propose the minimum environmental load operation scheme of the co-generation energy system; then so called here " eco-operation scheme ". The eco-operation scheme is here proposed as the scheme giving the NETS optimized by a combined simplex and branch-bound method. In here, the optimization of co-generation systems is not only for gas turbine systems but also for gas engine systems. As the result, the eco-load evaluation scheme constructed here is found to be an attractive and powerful tool to evaluate the quantitative LCA environmental loads of any co-generation system and to propose its eco-operation compromising compatibility between the cost and the eco performance.
Measurements of rolling resistance in thermal equilibrium of a tyre, like measurements according to ISO 28580, do not allow statements about rolling resistances under other driving conditions. Such statements, however, are necessary to determine the energy consumption in driving cycles. Especially for the proper calculation of electric-vehicle remaining ranges and the selection of the respective driving strategies, the real amount of energy consumption is required. This paper presents a model approach, which by means of only one standardised rolling resistance measurement can be parameterised and, considering the present driving speed and tyre temperature, can predict the respective current rolling resistance.
This paper was prepared to estimate the current and projected relationship between climate change (temperature) and variability and the productinity of sorghum under rainfed mechanized farming system in Gadarif State. The study ultilized secondary data covering the period 1970-2014. The data analyzed using descriptive analysis, Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The most important results revealed that an increasing trend of temperature indicating the evidence of existance of climate change in the State.The results also showed a drop in crop yield associated with an increase in maximum and minimum level of temperatures. As with respect to projection of future temperature and yield, two scenarios based on greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere for the period 2020-2100 were used. The best scenario assumed an RCP of 2.6 and the worst one assumed an RCP of 8.5.The results of best scenario predicted an expected increase yearly in maximum and minimum temperatures at rate of 0.015 ° C and 0.010 ° C respectively; and consequent decrease in crop yield at rate of 1.121 kg/fed/year in case of maximum temperature; and at rate of 0.618 kg/fed/year in case of minimum temperature. The result of the worst scenario predicted an expected yearly increase in maximum and minimum temperatures at 0.074 ° C and 0.081 ° C respectively, with consequent decline in crop yield at a rate of 5.235 kg/fed/year associated with maximum temperature and at rate of 4.844 kg/fed/year associated with minimum temperature. The effect of increase greenhouse gas concentration in future leads to increase maximum and minimum temperatures and decrease yield of sorghum in Gadarif State.
"LCA (life cycle assessment)", which can assess the environmental aspect and potential impact associated with a product "from the cradle to the grave" synthetically, has become noteworthy. The software "MieLCA", which can be operated easily on a personal computer to conduct LCA-NETS (Numerical Eco-Load Total Standardization) was composed by employing the LCA method "ESS" (Eco-Load Standardization System). The assessment of various types of industrial products can be performed by applying "MieLCA". On the other hand, the vending machine has just as much to do with the environment as other industrial products. In addition to conducting such an assessment, the ecological improvement was performed by taking account of the concept of reuse etc. As a case study, the evaluation of environmental performance of a vending machine is discussed
The possible effects of global warming on agriculture may have economic, ecological, and social repercussions. Major factors in analyzing these effects include expected population growth, possible increases in agricultural production, improved agrotechnology, and changes in crop productivity. Favorable climate changes, especially the effect of increased carbon dioxide (CO2)on crop productivity, can help to solve the food supply problem expected in the 21st Century. Techniques related to agrotechnology, climate, and crop productivity contribute to a balanced strategy for adapting to future global changes.
The history of the concept of the world for human beings has changed dramatically. However, we still have the implicit idea that the human being is of small significance in the world. Our behavior has been in some sense controlled tacitly by such ideas about the world. There have been several warnings that such an unlimited world no longer exists. The book Silent Spring by Rachel Carson (1962) raised a civilian movement in the 1960s toward the concept of our world as a limited dimension. Report of Conference, Study of Man’s Impact on Climate (SMIC 1971) and Limit to Growth by the Club of Rome (Meadows et al. 1972) were part of the second movement in this context, organized by international organizations involving a large number of scientists. Until recently, however, environmental change was accepted by society as substantially limited to local phenomena such as urban pollution, damage to ecological systems by heavy industrial pollution of air, water, and soil, and so on. In 1969 the city of Los Angeles recorded the worst air pollution, and the word smog was invented to describe such a heavy air pollution aerosol layer. The U.S. Congress passed the Clean Air Act in 1970. In Japan, the Air Quality Protection Law was established in 1968. Strong protection actions were launched to clean the urban environment up to the 1980s in most countries.
The population of southern Africa (defined in the context of this paper as the Republic of South Africa, plus the Kingdoms of Lesotho and Swaziland) is projected to increase from its present 40 million to between 70 and 90 million by the year 2035. To meet the food demands of this growing population, crop production will have to expand at three per cent per annum (Arbuthnot, 1992). This will not be an easy task, however, as the southern African subcontinent is largely semi-arid and sub-humid, has a diversity of soils, physiography, agricultural crops grown, and management levels at which they are grown. Above all these factors, however, is the wide range of climates, characterised by a marked intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall. In terms of resource management, this is a high-risk environment which, in the agricultural industry, be it in the commercial or subsistence sector, implies in most areas uncertain production, frequent crop failures and consequently a drain on state finances through subsidies and drought relief.
Although CO2 is the main contributor to the greenhouse effect, options for emission reduction of other greenhouse gases should not be underestimated. In the Netherlands a study on cost-effectiveness of emission-reducing measures for methane showed that reductions are possible with relatively low costs. Sometimes measures can even be profitable or result in CO2 emission reduction at the same time.
Nations should undertake similar actions to explore cost-effective reduction options for other greenhouse gases than CO2.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change contains obligations for industrialized countries to return to their net emissions of greenhouse gases at 1990 levels by the year 2000. Through the comprehensive approach of the Convention non CO2 greenhouse gases are included. Additional agreements on non CO2 greenhouse gases are discussed.
The threat of global climate change promises to be the single most pressing environmental issue as the world enters the 21st Century. Increasingly, it becomes incumbent upon decision-makers from a wide array of backgrounds to gain a sound understanding of the fundamentals of the climate change issue and how it relates to their areas of responsibility. The purpose of this chapter is to review the main elements of the climate change problem and the implications for Bangladesh in order to highlight the key scientific and policy issues involved. This is accomplished by addressing seven main questions: How has climate changed and why? How is the composition of the atmosphere changing? What are the effects on the Earth’s radiation budget? Have variations in greenhouse gases caused climate to change? How might the global climate change in the future? How might the climate of Bangladesh change? What are the implications for policy? The chapter concludes with reflections on the next steps for action and research.
A systematic method is needed to compare the effectiveness and costs of options for adapting to climate change. A decision matrix can be used to analyze the effectiveness of adaptation options in meeting specific policy goals under various climate change scenarios. Consistent quantitative measures of different goals should be used to enable comparisons to be made across multiple goals. The goals can be weighted based on their relative importance. The decision matrix can also be used to rank the relative cost-effectiveness of adaptation policies and practices, or if monetary measures are used, to examine whether benefits exceed costs and benefit-cost ratios.
It has been established that the historical approach to forecasting world energy can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes the stabilization of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almost to 500 parts per million by the end of the century. From the historical point of view, implementation of the most aggressive IPCC scenarios of human impact seems to be very unlikely.
Most global climate models simulate a weakening of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in response to enhanced greenhouse warming. Both surface warming and freshening in high latitudes, the so-called sinking region, contribute to the weakening of the THC. Some models simulate even a complete breakdown of the THC at sufficiently strong forcing. Here results from a state-of-the-art global climate model are presented that does not simulate a weakening of the THC in response to greenhouse warming. Large-scale air-sea interactions in the tropics, similar to those operating during present-day El Niños, lead to anomalously high salinities in the tropical Atlantic. These are advected into the sinking region, thereby increasing the surface density and compensating the effects of the local warming and freshening. The results of the model study are corroborated by the analysis of observations.
In the past, the selection of an energy resource for electricity generation has been dominate by approaching finding the least expensive power generating plant with the special emphasis on the resources availability. Although such an approach is essential, growing concern about the other aspects of power generation systems, taking into account social, environmental and technological benefits and consequences of the selection.
The aims of this paper are first to introduce a life cycle assessment (LCA) scheme with the aid of the NETS (Numerical Eco-load Total Standardization) method that we have newly proposed as a numerical measure to evaluate the quantitative load of any industrial activity on the environment, and have used to analyze the energy flow and the environmental loads of various power generation systems. Secondly, to develop a computer programmed to examine the applicability of technology options facilities due to cost performance and environmental load reduction and finally to select the power system using life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) optimization.
In this paper, the power plants inventory database has developed to support a deterministic quantitative model to compare the technical-economical and environmental features of various electric power plants. The each option leads to changes in flow of energy, materials consumption and emissions. Such consequence can be evaluated by input-output analysis, and direct and induced environmental loads are finally obtained. The information provides on environmental performance, economic performance and functional performance. The LCA-NETS method is used to assess the environmental load of each power generation system in the lifecycle, and the LCC is used to evaluate the economy parameter.
In this work, a customized computer code is developed to evaluate the overall eco-function of alternative energy systems. The technique is kept flexible so that it can accommodate other attributes (parameters) that will be found to be important according to the decision maker’s preference. By so doing the model can be used to attack any decision problem with various different attributes to reach an optimal decision concerning the selection of energy sources for electricity generation. Finally, the energy system will be discussed from the ecological and economical viewpoints. As a result, the scheme constructed here is found to be an attractive and powerful tool to estimate the cost as well as quantitatively estimation for the LCA environmental loads of any industrial activity like power generation systems and to propose the eco-operation of the industrial activity of interest.
Este trabalho avaliou o impacto do preparo em diferentes configurações sobre as emissões imediatas de CO2 do solo, empregando dois dos principais sistemas de preparo utilizados em áreas agrícolas: arado de disco seguido de grade niveladora (convencional) e escarificador conjugado com rolo destorroador (reduzido). Os resultados indicaram maiores emissões induzidas pelo preparo convencional, arado de disco seguido de grade niveladora, num total de 260,7 gramas de CO2 m-2 no período de 14 dias de estudo. Por outro lado, as menores emissões foram observadas após preparo com escarificador sem a utilização do rolo destorroador, de 82,3 gramas de CO2 m-2. Os fatores temperatura e umidade do solo não se relacionaram com as variações do fluxo de CO2 do solo, mas o tempo foi um fator importante na capacidade de previsão da emissão após preparo do solo.
The present work deals with effects of ambient air O 3 on cultivated and non-cultivated plants species exhibited at Aljubail Industrial City by comparing exposed plants to ambient air in two polluted localities (high and low). Three cultivated (Bougainvillea spp., Nerium oleander, Tevetia neralfoia) and three non-cultivated plants species (Moltkiopsis ciliate, Heliotropium bacciferum and Zygophyllum album) were studied.Plant samples were collected from plants growing at these localities at three time periods; mid December 2006, February 2007 and April 2007. Complete monitoring of major gaseous air pollutants (O 3 , SO 2 , NO 2) during these periods was made Physiological parameters (sugars, pigments and antioxidant enzymes) for all plant samples were determined. Gradual increases in the concentration of air pollutants gases was found starting from August to May reaching high levels in August and September.O 3 concentrations at these months were three to four times the normal levels. At high polluted localities Ambient O 3 pollution lead to a significant decrease in total sugars, pigments and antioxidant enzymes activity in cultivated plants species. The results also showed that Bougainvillea spp. was more sensitive plant to O 3 pollution compared to other cultivated plant species, while in non cultivated Moltkiopsis ciliate was more resistance than other plants. This investigation concluded that ozone pollution is responsible for the plant damage in industrial cities of KSA.
Background/Question/Methods
Mountain maple (Acer spicatum L.) is an important shrub or tree species in the boreal forest understory of North America. It survives and grows slowly under the forest canopy for a long period of time, but exhibits light-foraging growth habits. Some shade tolerant understory tree species such as mountain maple (Acer spicatum L.) exhibit light-foraging growth habits. Global environment change scenarios, such as elevated carbon dioxide concentration and soil warming may therefore affect mountain maple response to light environment. In this study, we sought to examine the effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentration and soil warming on the growth and biomass responses of mountain maple seedlings to increases in light availability. We investigated how elevated [CO2] and soil warming influence the growth and biomass responses of mountain maple seedlings to light availability. We hypothesized that elevated carbon dioxide concentration and soil warming would cause greater enhancement of growth and biomass of mountain maple seedling growing in high light environment. To test this hypothesis, we exposed the seedlings to: a) two levels of light (100% of greenhouse light and 30%); b) two carbon dioxide concentration (ambient or 392 µmol mol-1 and elevated or 784 µmol mol-1); and c) two soil temperature regimes (17°C and 22°C). We measured seedlings growth and biomass after one growing season.
Results/Conclusions
We found that under ambient [CO2], the higher light level increased seedlings height increased by 70% and 56% at low Tsoil and high Tsoil, respectively. Under the elevated [CO2], however, the high light level increased seedlings height by 52% and just 13% at low Tsoil high Tsoil, respectively. Seedlings biomass generally followed the aboveground growth response patterns to light under [CO2] and Tsoil: the degree of biomass response to light was lowest under the elevated [CO2] and warmer Tsoil. Thus, elevated [CO2] and soil warming may have little influence on mountain maple seedlings establishment in canopy gaps in the future.
Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO, and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions.
This report has various objectives: (i) to provide an overview of the climate Integrated Assessment approach; (ii) to describe the Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM); (iii) to outline the new IPCC scenario framework represented by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); and (iv) to document the implementation of the new scenario framework in version 3.1 of the GCAM. The GCAM baseline is thus calibrated to the “Middle of the Road” or SSP2 scenario using the data calculated by the OECD. The implications of this scenario are important because it will probably become a standard scenario among the research community. The exogenous variables, the implications for income convergence and the results in terms of energy mix, emissions, temperature and radiative forcing of SSP2 implementation in the GCAM are presented at both global and regional levels. These results are also compared with the GCAM-Reference baseline and the IPCC SRES representative scenarios. Then the feasibility, cost and implications of a climate policy that seeks to stabilize temperature at 2ºC (2.6 W/m2 RCP) using a global uniform carbon tax are analyzed. The study is completed by a decomposition analysis that enables the main driving factors of CO2 variation to be identified, including population, affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity and fossil-fuel share of the energy mix. Finally we draw some conclusions and highlight points for further research.
Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) developing and transition countries are eventually required to report greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories and response (mitigation) options. The United States (US) and other donors are providing financial and technical support for climate change country studies to help meet their needs under the UNFCCC. The US Country Studies Program (US CSP) was originally announced by President Bush at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Brazil in 1992. The Program is currently assisting 56 country studies to address climate change. There are strong components of ocean and coastal assessment, adaptation and management in 41 of the 56 studies in the US CSP. All studies in the Program are implemented under respective bilateral cooperative agreements. Technical assistance for conducting GHG inventory, climate change impact vulnerability studies, and adaptation and mitigation assessments includes training of analysts, sharing of contemporary tools and assessment techniques, implementation of information-sharing workshops, and an exchange program for analysts. Emphases have been put on strengthening of human and institutional capacity to cope with global climate change issues, hence providing developing and transition countries with a sustained basis for meeting the goals of the UNFCCC.
Three distinct models from earlier work are combined to: (1) produce probabilistically weighted scenarios of greenhouse-gas-induced sea-level rise; (2) support estimates of the expected discounted value of the cost of sea-level rise to the developed coastline of the United States, and (3) develop reduced-form estimates of the functional relationship between those costs to anticipated sea-level rise, the cost of protection, and the anticipated rate of property-value appreciation. Four alternative representations of future sulfate emissions, each tied consistently to the forces that drive the initial trajectories of the greenhouse gases, are considered. Sea-level rise has a nonlinear effect on expected cost in all cases, but the estimated sensitivity falls short of being quadratic. The mean estimate for the expected discounted cost across the United States is approximately 0.2 billion up to more than $4.6 billion. In addition, the mean estimate is very sensitive to associated sulfate emissions; it is, specifically, diminished by nearly 25% when base-case sulfate emission trajectories are considered and by more than 55% when high-sulfate trajectories are allowed.
Seeds of Maranthes corymbosa Blume, a monsoon rain forest species of northern Australia, were sown under ambient or elevated CO2 concentrations in tropical Australia. Seedlings were grown under conditions of photon flux density, temperature and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit which followed ambient variations as closely as possible. Specific leaf area, chlorophyll, stomatal density, stomatal conductance and assimilation responses to photon flux density were measured after 30 weeks growth. Gas exchange characteristics were divided into morning and afternoon data sets and analysed separately. Stomatal density decreased and leaf area:dry weight ratio decreased in response to elevated CO2. In contrast there was no effect of elevated CO2 upon chlorophyll (total or ratio of a:b). Apparent quantum yield and rates of light saturated assimilation (Amax) increased in response to elevated CO2. There was a significant decline in apparent quantum yield for both treatments between morning and afternoon. Stomatal conductance (gs) declined in response to elevated CO2. There was no significant difference in gs between morning and afternoon for ambient grown trees, but gs declined significantly between morning and afternoon for elevated CO2 grown trees. Instantaneous transpiration efficiency (ITE) was higher for elevated CO2 grown trees compared with control trees. There was a significant increase in ITE between morning and afternoon data for ambient grown trees; in contrast a significant decline in ITE was observed for elevated CO2 grown trees between morning anf afternoon data sets. The slope of the regression between assimilation rate and stomatal conductance increased for plants grown under elevated CO2. These data are discussed and compared with the responses of plants adapting to different photon flux densities.
In its 2007 assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) declared the Nile Delta one of three sites on earth that are most vulnerable to sea level rise. The Panel projected a global average surface temperature will increase by 1 to 3.5C with an associated rise in sea level of 15 to 95cm by 2100. Several recent assessments suggest this figure could be much higher. In one study that considered the impact of a 1m SLR for 84 developing countries, Egypt was ranked the 2nd highest with respect to the coastal population affected, 3rd highest for coastal GDP affected and 5th highest for proportion of urban areas affected. In this study , In this paper we present the methodology to build an integrated web map solution to access the effect of the SLR scenarios (WHAT IF) on the northern coast of EGYPT – EGSLR.
Artificial vegetation is an important biological component to absorb carbon dioxide for ecosystem health. The artificial carbon sink forest plays an important role in carbon emission reduction. Based on data of Landsat TM in August, 2009, the ecological landscape pattern of artificial forest in Karamay is obtained. Furthermore, using NDVI and soil sapling date to estimate carbon density. i.e, depending on the differences of landscape pattern, the soil sampling has done. Taking soil samples to chemical experience in laboratory, the physical and chemical characteristics are understood. From the quantitative results of elements' content in the soil sample in different sampling sites, the soil organic carbon are evaluated.
Emission inventories for major reactive tropospheric Cl species
(particulate Cl, HCl, ClNO2, CH3Cl,
CHCl3, CH3CCl3,
C2Cl4, C2HCl3,
CH2Cl2, and CHClF2) were integrated
across source types (terrestrial biogenic and oceanic emissions,
sea-salt production and dechlorination, biomass burning, industrial
emissions, fossil-fuel combustion, and incineration). Composite
emissions were compared with known sinks to assess budget closure;
relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic sources were
differentiated. Model calculations suggest that conventional
acid-displacement reactions involving S(IV) + O3,
(IV) + O3 H2O2, and
H2SO4 and HNO3 scavenging account for
minor fractions of sea-salt dechlorination globally. Other important
chemical pathways involving sea-salt aerosol apparently produce most
volatile chlorine in the troposphere. The combined emissions of
CH3Cl from known sources account for about half of the
modeled sink, suggesting fluxes from known sources were underestimated,
the OH sink was overestimated, or significant unidentified sources
exist. Anthropogenic activities (primarily biomass burning) contribute
about half the net CH3Cl emitted from known sources.
Anthropogenic emissions account for only about 10% of the modeled
CHCl3 sink. Although poorly constrained, significant
fractions of tropospheric CH2Cl2 (25%),
C2HCl3 (10%), and C2Cl4 (5%)
are emitted from the surface ocean; the combined contributions of
C2Cl4 and C2HCl3 from all
natural sources may be substantially higher than the estimated oceanic
flux.
The prospects for reducing emissions of trace greenhouse gases and pollutants in the power industry
and other branches of the economy are considered. Their environmental control potential in the area of reducing the scale of global changes in the climate in the next century is appraised, as is the possibility of decreasing the ecological pressure on the branches of the economy that are responsible for emissions of carbon dioxide, first and foremost, on the power industry
The purpose of the study was to identify and quantify anthropogenic sources and sinks of greenhouse gases from forestry, land-use changes and agriculture in Tanzania. The 1990 inventory revealed that, in the land-use sector, methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the primary gases emitted. Enteric fermentation in livestock production systems is the largest source of CH4. Although deforestation results in greenhouse gas emissions, the managed forests of Tanzania are a major CO2 sink.
The Gambia has successfully completed a national greenhouse gas emissions inventory based on the results of a study funded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Global Environment Facility (GEF) Country Case Study Program. The concepts of multisectoral, multidisciplinary, and interdisciplinary collaboration were most useful in the preparation of this inventory. New data were gathered during the study period, some through regional collaboration with institutions such as Environment and Development in the Third World (ENDA-TM) Energy Program and the Ecological Monitoring Center in Dakar, Senegal, and some through national surveys and the use of remote sensing techniques, as in the Bushfires Survey. Most of the data collected are used in this paper. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency (IPCC/OECD/IEA) methodology is used to calculate greenhouse gas emissions. Many of the default data in the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology have also been used. Overall results indicate that in the biomass sectors (agriculture, forestry, and land-use change) carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted most, with a total of 1.7 Tg. This is followed by methane (CH4), 22.3 Gg; carbon monoxide (CO), 18.7 Gg; nitrogen oxides (NOx), 0.3 Gg; and nitrous oxide (N2O), 0.014 Gg. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) was used as an index to describe the relative effects of the various gases reported here. Based on the emissions in The Gambia in 1993, it was found that CO2 will contribute 75%, CH4 about 24.5%, and N2O 0.2% of the warming expected in the 100-year period beginning in 1993. The results in this analysis are limited by the shortcomings of the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology and scarce national data. Because the methodology was developed outside of the developing world, most of its emissions factors and coefficients were developed and tested in environments that are very different from The Gambia. This is likely to introduce some uncertainties into the results of the calculations. Factors and coefficients that are country-or region-specific are likely to provide more accurate results and should be developed. The surveys were conducted either during the wet season or just at the end of the wet season. This seasonal factor should contribute to variations in the results, particularly in the livestock numbers and composition survey. Use of one-time survey data is also likely to introduce uncertainty into the results.
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