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The Art of the Long View
... It is important to emphasize that scenarios are not projections, forecasts or predictions. Rather, they are stories about the future with a logical plot and narrative governing the manner in which events unfold (Schwartz, 1991;Cole, 1981;Miles, 1981), Scenarios usually include images of the future -snapshots of the major features of interest at various points in time -and an account of the causal flow of events leading from the present (or the base situation) to such future conditions. ...
... United Nations World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) 5 case they take the shape of stories about the future with a logical plot and narrative governing the manner in which events unfold, often complemented with cause-and-effects digrams (Schwartz, 1991;Cole, 1981;Miles, 1981). They can also be quantitative, in which case they generate numerical calculations about the sequence of states leading to the future. ...
... Some of these forces are invariant over all scenarios; that is, are to a large extent predetermined. Some of the driving forces may represent critical uncertainties, the resolution of which fundamentally alter the course of events (Schwartz 1991). Those drivers influence, but do not completely determine, the future. ...
... To explain this further, core competences are the unique strengths of the organization which are the results of using its resources effectively and efficiently, takes time to develop, cannot be copied by rivals, and can seemingly lead to a competitive advantage which can be either cost leadership or differentiation in its own right (van der Heijden 2005). Similarly, 'external dynamics' are the environmental predetermined elements, or the perceived certainties, on one hand, and the uncertainties, or the unpredictable elements, in a given environment on the other hand (Schwartz 1991). In strategic management implementation analysis these 'external dynamics' are always mapped with the degree of impact that they will have for a specific company that is planning for competitive advantage (Sarpong and Amankwah-Amoah 2016). ...
... However, although acumens of these tools have been used expensively in the construction of Business Ideas in previous studies (see van der Heijden et al. 2002, Santos et al. 2009), it is unsure if the insights of the above-mentioned analyses are fully applicable in the specific context, that is, if they can capture a realistic picture of 'internal dynamics' for McDonalds and Starbucks in their Business Ideas. This because, research suggests that some of these tools may be more applicable than others in specific situations, and some, like 5 forces analysis and the generic strategies, may not contribute at all in certain conditions given the unpredictability of the future (van der Heijden et al. 2005, Schwartz 1991). This being said, it seems to be a research gap as per the use and outcomes of these models in different situations. ...
... Given this issue, this paper aims to shorten this gap. The authors of this work expect that the reflexions of discussing these models in relation to the Business Ideas of the two firms will help to test the models for validity and applicability in the specific setting and whether the models can contribute to linking 'internal dynamics' with 'external dynamics' which seems to be a requirement for sustaining any competitive advantage (see Schwab 2017, Sarpong and Amankwah-Amoah 2016, Prahalad and Hamel 1990, Schwartz 1991. The results of the analysis will form the basis for the recommendations at the end of the paper in addition to the insights of the Business Ideas. ...
Why most businesses cannot retain any would-be competitive advantage even if they are the chief actors in a market or markets that it is them that have made profitable? Should we contemplate a current competitive advantage as a formula for uninterrupted success, or all is a misconception of a dominant paradigm that has locked the corporation to the profitable bygone days not letting them to look at the future and accordingly leaving behind profit prospects? The purpose of this study is to challenge the myth of sustainable competitive advantage presumably obtained through Porter’s Generic Strategies framework by examining what really occurs in the fast-food market at present. This is done through an assessment of the Cost Leadership and Differentiation strategies seemingly applied in McDonalds and Starbucks respectively in relation to planning, accumulation and use of resources, and the generation of core competences (or internal dynamics), if any. And, to seek if it is possible, or not, to tie sustainability of any long-term earnings with these firms’ best usage of in-house competencies as well as their skill to anticipate key environmental blows (or external dynamics). The writers adopt an interrogative attitude to the classical strategic management theory and, based on the results of the study, they go on to maintain the opinion that there is not such a thing as an advantage that is for ever viable. At the end of the study, the authors, again based on the results, suggest ways to increase the possibility of sustaining any strategic advantage for the specific firms. It is expected that these reflections will encourage more research in the area. Keywords: strategy, globalization, competitive advantage
... The RAND corporation brought these three developments together and had a central role in the development of war games (Bradfeld et al., 2005). A researcher at RAND, Herman Kahn, is credited with introducing scenarios into non-military decision making (Schwartz, 1997). Around the same time in France a diferent form of scenarios was developed, which was called La Prospective (Godet, 2000). ...
... Although the frst publication on a methodology for scenario development already appeared in the 1970s (Zentner, 1975), detailed descriptions of the process of developing scenarios were not published until the mid-1980s (Huss & Honton, 1987a, 1987bOgilvy & Mantle, 1984). In the 1990s, a range of approaches appeared (Ringland, 1998;Schoemaker, 1993;Schwartz, 1997;Van der Heijden, 1996). Approaches are diferent in terms of the number of steps and level of detail on which tools and techniques are described, but similarities can be recognised. ...
... We made minor changes in the order of steps compared to the original publication. For instance, Schwartz (1997) places the selection of leading indicators and signposts in the one before last phase, we moved this to an earlier position. As a last point, note that some key terms are defned diferently. ...
Will there be a new pandemic? How will Artifcial Intelligence develop and
which jobs will it afect? Can the worst efects of climate change still be
prevented? Answers to these questions have consequences for persons and
organisations around the world. In long-term planning, analysing the potential
future paths of these trends is known as scenario exploration. In everyday,
language ‘scenario’ refers to a hypothetical sequence of events. Scenarios
can, for instance, refer to the plot of a movie or theatre play, to alternative
future trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions and their impact, or to possible
outcomes of a war. In team decision making, scenario development or
scenario planning refers to a set of approaches that aim to construct descriptions
of the future environment of an organisation. Often multiple scenarios
are developed as it is difcult to predict events or, depending on time
horizon and sector, even general trends. The future is inherently uncertain,
as becomes clear from this Danish proverb: ‘It is difcult to make predictions,
especially about the future’. Preparing not just for one but for multiple
plausible futures is a practical way to deal with uncertainty. Practitioners in
scenario analysis assume that by imagining what the context of an organisation
looks like in the future, an organisation is in a better position to
determine what is important in the present. While widely known and used
for strategy development, scenario planning has received a fair amount of
criticism. Because of the bewildering diversity in approaches and guidelines
to constructing scenarios, the method has been called a toolbox rather than
a tool. In this chapter, we concentrate on one particular school of scenario
development which is called intuitive logics. In this school of thought, the
qualitative input of team members is leading. The process starts by collecting
ideas on trends and developments in the surroundings of an organisation.
86 An overview of selected interventions
Some of these trends are predetermined, meaning that their future behaviour
can be predicted with some degree of confdence. Most interesting are those
clusters that are uncertain and important as they may develop along alternative
paths. These form the basis for a set of alternative, plausible scenarios.
A set of scenarios is developed which each describe, in narrative form, what a
possible future looks like and how it came to be. The question that then follows
logically is ‘if the future looks like this, what can we do to prepare?’ By
analysing what works well across scenarios, in efect using scenarios as a test
bed for strategic actions, so-called robust options can be identifed. A robust
option is a course of action that generates benefcial results, regardless of
major developments in the environment. Alternative approaches to scenario
building combine input from team members with quantitative data, statistical
analysis and simulation. The wide application of scenarios has resulted in
a range of published case studies which are summarised in reviews. The tentative
conclusion from these reviews is that scenarios may help stakeholders
to identify adaptable options, communicate with stakeholders, and increase
understanding and acceptance of uncertainty.
... Esse retrato representa uma descrição de uma situação futura de modo a permitir a compreensão da evolução dos acontecimentos desde a situação de origem até se chegar à situação futura, de forma coerente. Representa uma visão internamente consistente de como o futuro poderá ser (Porter, 1985;Schwartz, 1991;Godet, 1993;Schoemaker, 1995). ...
... Essa história representa uma descrição de uma situação futura de modo a permitir a compreensão da evolução dos acontecimentos desde a situação de origem até se chegar a situação futura, de forma coerente. Representa uma visão internamente consistente de como o futuro poderá ser (Porter, 1985, Schwartz, 1991Godet, 1993, Schoemaker, 1995. ...
Given the turbulent and uncertain environment in which organizations are inserted and the diverse contributions that Foresight and scenario planning bring to organizations, it is essential to evaluate their evolution, identifying the most frequent themes and their progress throughout the year, as well as identifying emerging trends, pointing to where research in the fields of Foresight and scenario planning is heading, whether in the world or Brazil. In this context, this research aims to list the similarities and differences between scientific production in Brazil and that of the world in the areas of Foresight and scenario planning and to point out gaps. To this end, bibliometric data was collected and analyzed from periodicals, conferences, and theses from the SCOPUS database, and bibliometric analysis was carried out to evaluate the evolution of the topic in the world and in Brazil and subsequent comparative analysis. The main results show an expansion of research in this area both in the world and Brazil, but in a different proportion, with Brazil falling behind global developments. There are a few common themes, showing that research in Brazil evolves with themes different from those addressed worldwide. Finally, it shows that despite the existence of large knowledge-producing centers in both the United States and Europe – the largest producers of scientific publications in the area – with emphasis on several universities in these countries, no Brazilian university was found that stands out as a reference in research in the area worldwide.
... It is important to emphasize that scenarios are not projections, forecasts or predictions. Rather, they are stories about the future with a logical plot and narrative governing the manner in which events unfold (Schwartz, 1991). Scenarios usually include images of the future -snapshots of the major features of interest at various points in time -and an account of the causal flow of events leading from the present (or the base situation) to such future conditions. ...
... The project employed a scenario methodology to identify the ethical, legal, social, and economic issues that SDVs may face over the next six years. Scenarios, defined by Schwartz (1998) as "a tool for ordering perceptions about alternative future environments to help people make better decisions," offer significant benefits, but also pose challenges. For instance, scenario approaches can often lack structure, making it difficult to provide clear guidance on issues. ...
Autonomous transportation presents significant potential to enhance road efficiency, reduce traffic accidents, increase productivity, and minimize environmental impact. However, its adoption has faced resistance from various groups citing concerns about safety, cybersecurity risks, job displacement, and potential increases in environmental pollution due to the convenience of self-driving vehicles (SDVs). To fully realize the benefits of SDVs while mitigating these challenges, it is essential to proactively identify future obstacles and take strategic actions now to address them. This paper employs a policy scenario methodology to construct a likely future for the year 2025, examining the implications of current trajectories in autonomous transportation. The purpose of this foresight analysis is to articulate the challenges we face today and project how they may evolve over the next six years. It highlights the key facilitators and inhibitors of change, as well as the economic impacts of autonomous transportation systems. Specifically, the paper addresses critical issues such as autonomy, privacy, liability, cybersecurity, data protection, and safety, providing a comprehensive synthesis of the potential outcomes associated with SDV adoption. It will also offer actionable steps that policymakers, industry leaders, and other stakeholders can take to avoid these pitfalls while ensuring that society fully benefits from the advantages of autonomous transportation.
... Unlike scenarios that narrate hypothetical sequences of events from present to future (Schwartz, 1996), future images are 'snapshots' of possible or desirable futuresspecific, impressionistic descriptions of future states (Bell & Mau, 1971;Jarva, 2014;Kuhmonen, 2017). These images are grounded in beliefs, expectations, opinions, values, hopes, fears (Rubin, 2013), and ongoing and future developments (Jokinen et al. 2022). ...
In their quest for sustainable transformation, agricultural industries need to move beyond product and service innovation as well as rivalry between actors toward reconfiguring production and consumption systems. In mature industries like agriculture, envisioning alternatives that require systemic innovation is challenging due to the dominance of existing systems. This study constructs future images, as design tools, to expand the opportunity space for sustainable transformation. Focusing on the Dutch poultry industry, we conducted futures interviews to identify and structure drivers of change and use these to construct future images by identifying values-based themes. We constructed and visualized six coherent future images depicting alternative contexts for this industry: ‘zero-emission policy agenda,’ ‘farmers as entrepreneurial innovators,’ ‘collaborative ecosystem,’ ‘retail as an orchestrator,’ ‘happy animals, healthy humans,’ and ‘living labs in the knowledge economy.’ We discuss how these futures expand the opportunity space for novel production and consumption systems, drawing on distinct sustainability conceptualizations and different actors.
... Amara and Linpinsky (1983, 50) have referred to this particular one as the "most direct" question that gets at "what is important" to the company, which is why we, the authors, use it to structure our exploration of ways to enhance student readiness for scenario fieldwork. van der Heijden (1996) devotes a considerable amount of attention on preparatory interviewing in Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation, which, like Schwartz, (1991) The art of the long view, is often taken to be both an early treatise on scenario planning practice as well as a practical field guide for active facilitators ). ...
This paper is primarily based on experientially derived insights about building a bot with artificial intelligence (AI)–in this case, chat generative pre‐trained transformer (ChatGPT)–to prepare students to engage in strategic conversations during foresight fieldwork. The motivation of the exploratory process outlined in this paper is the pedagogical concern of sending students into the field sufficiently prepared to meet the expectations of external stakeholders. The authors explore a in‐class prompt engineering exercise to create a “chief operating bot” (COB) to simulate a C‐suite executive. The student‐faculty team input hand‐selected, industry‐specific, company‐generated documentation, and, after asking ChatGPT to “roleplay” the COO, the student queries this COB in an exploratory fashion embedded in a contained, consequence‐free learning environment. The audience for this paper is faculty responsible for overseeing student engagement experiences like fieldwork, as well as department heads and school deans looking to promote new tools and advance novel applications of AI in their units. The authors explore ways to enhance student readiness for scenario fieldwork based on an exercise drawn from van der Heijden's clairvoyant question, which we refer to colloquially as the “crystal ball thought experiment.” The authors, upon reflection, conclude that the COB can valuably supplement–but not fully replace–face‐to‐face interactions with a COO. Broadly, leveraging AI to create interactive tools like COBs has the potential to transform business education by bridging academic preparation with real‐world demands, enhancing student readiness, advancing AI‐assisted curricula, and contributing to strategic planning and regional development.
... Why might people downplay unwanted change as a potential issue? Acknowledging unwanted change means that one must also decide how to respond appropriately [19]. Denial is effortless; transformation is effortful. ...
How engaged should design education be with the unfolding Climate Disasters, technology, and DEIBJ (diversity, equity, inclusion, belonging, and justice)? Is the next generation of designers prepared to lead zero-carbon lifestyle transitions? Second, what role might Artificial Intelligence (AI) play in design education? Thirdly, what does engaging with topics such as design for the pluriverse, "decolonizing design," and DEIBJ practically involve? I explore eight alternative futures in a 2x2x2 cube of possibilities with three axes: Climate Disaster engagement, technological change, and DEIBJ. Future 1 is the "business as usual" of design education. (e.g., no meaningful engagement with AI or unfolding Climate Disasters). Future 2 is the "high-tech status quo" (e.g., engagement with technology such as AI but not Climate Disasters). Future 3 is a "Sustainable Luddite Design" (e.g., Engagement with Climate Disasters but ignoring AI and technology). Future 4 is "AI for Climate Disasters," using advanced technologies to engage with zero-carbon lifestyle transitions and social innovation. Futures 5-8 emerge, adding the DEIBJ to the four futures mentioned. In this paper, I describe a survey conducted with faculty, staff, and students at the School of Design at Carnegie Mellon University. The first set of questions probed the personal outlook on the future ten years out and the perceived agency on such futures. The second set of questions asked about interest and engagement with emerging topics. The third set of questions asked about the comfort and frequency of teaching emerging issues. Close to two-thirds of all participants thought they could impact the future in ten years (half of which thought the future would be worse, and the other half better). Close to one-third of participants said the future was worsening and they lacked agency. Most of the faculty said they were comfortable teaching emerging topics. Regarding the frequency of teaching, it was surprising to note that SDGs and zero-carbon lifestyle transitions were in the "rarely "and "sometimes" taught range. DEIBJ frequency was between "sometimes" and "a good bit." In contrast, "decolonizing design" and "design for the pluriverse" were in the "sometimes" range, suggesting that university and college leadership motivate faculty teaching frequency.
... Strategy scholars have begun to theorize how firms conceive of (Rindova and Courtney 2020, Grimes and Vogus 2021) and give shape to (Berglund et al. 2020, Rindova andMartins 2021) novel possibilities. They have noted that firms articulate and theorize novel possibilities both through structured foresight scenarios, which project different possible states at the intersection of critical uncertainties (McClanahan 2009, Schwartz 2012, Amer et al. 2013, as well as through fictive narratives, which depict desirable futures as "'as-if' realities" (Augustine et al. 2019;Rindova and Martins 2022, p. 211). The novel possibilities articulated in projective theories depict and propose future states that are desired by the firm and are desirable to stakeholders whose support the firm seeks to obtain. ...
We theorize why and how strategists develop different types of theories when confronted with different types of problems by combining knowledge and imagination in different ways. We propose that strategists’ epistemic stances affect how they combine knowledge and imagination and whether they develop either analytic theories, or constructive theories of two types: reconfigurative and projective. We theorize how imagination complements knowledge in theory development to generate distinctive strategies and strategic advantages. We argue that analytic theories enable conjectural anticipation, which contributes to early timing of strategic actions; that reconfigurative theories posit novel value dimensions and enable industry shaping; and that projective theories articulate novel possibilities to shape desired and desirable futures. Our ideas advance research on how imagination is leveraged in theory development, future-oriented strategizing, and shaping strategies.
... The PSP case studies in Reinhardt et al. (2018) were focused on supporting sustainable development by improving integrated natural resource management of specific natural resources under pressure. The two participatory cases used a scenario axes technique inspired by Schwartz (1996) and developed four qualitative scenarios each. Participants created concept maps to provoke discussion and description of key factors, drives, and processes. ...
Scenario planning is a tool used to explore a set of plausible futures shaped by specific trajectories. When applied in participatory contexts, it is known as participatory scenario planning (PSP), which has grown in its usage for planning, policy, and decision-making within the context of climate change. There has been no high-level synthesis of systematic reviews covering the overall state and direction of PSP for climate adaptation and management. We draw from four systematic reviews on PSP published between 2015 and 2021 to substantiate the credibility of the process and identify a set of standard practices to make PSP a more accessible and usable tool for not only researchers, but policymakers, practitioners, and other end users who may benefit from PSP. We summarize and synthesize the range of PSP processes and characteristics, highlighting four common trends that provoke additional inquiry: PSP’s contribution to social learning and bias, the varying use of quantitative information in scenario development, issues related to carrying out monitoring and evaluation, and the varying completion of practices recommended by established PSP literature. We propose four processes as integral to maximizing PSP’s usability for end users and recommend these areas for further study: identifying social imbalances throughout the PSP process, recognizing bias as inherent to PSP, explicitly addressing, and incorporating uncertainty, and allocating resources for monitoring and evaluation.
... Good scenarios present more than an end-state description, but highlight the dynamic logic of each story (akin to a Hollywood storyboard). The scenarios together should reflect a variety of viewpoints from within as well as outside the organization and jointly delineate a broad range of possibilities (Schwartz, 1991). Scenarios are not states of nature (they are seldom exhaustive) nor probabilistic predictions but, rather, coherent narratives of what could happen (Wack, 1985). ...
... To address this issue, we have devised a method for delineating scenarios of regional electricity demand under varying assumptions concerning future societal developments, employing a scenario-and-simulation approach [4]. In this study, scenarios are defined as narrative descriptions detailing the potential unfolding of alternative futures [5,6]. To quantify these narrative scenarios, we have developed a residential next-generation electricity demand model aimed at estimating electricity consumption in residential sectors, while accounting for future product diffusion (see Section 3.2). ...
A variety of energy-efficient and energy-generating products, such as photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles, have diffused into the market to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector. Understanding future changes in electricity demand and supply is complicated by uncertainties such as lifestyle shifts and national energy policies, and how such changes interact with the diffusion of products. To address this issue, this study adopts a scenario approach to analyze the impact of product diffusion on residential electricity demand under different social circumstances. Two simulation models are employed for the analysis: (i) a model for estimating the diffusion of products based on consumer preferences and (ii) a model to estimate electricity demand in residential sectors considering product diffusion. To demonstrate the proposed method, a scenario analysis case study was conducted, estimating the electricity demand in the residential sector of Toyonaka City, Osaka, Japan, for 2030. The results show that compared to 2012, the net electricity demand in the city in 2030 is projected to decrease by 20–39% depending on the scenarios considered, with changes in demographics and PV diffusion identified as among the most critical factors.
... Scenarios have been described as a methodology to produce "interesting research" that is both rigorous and actionable 62 , but their use is not confined to scholarship; indeed, scenario planning originates in the practical need for high stakes decision-makers to cope with uncertainty and unprecedented situations 63 . During the Covid-19 pandemic, Ramírez and Lang offered a practical guide to developing "frugal" scenarios online under straitened conditions and set out pitfalls for budding scenario planners to avoid, as well as suggestions for those who might seek to make use of "ready made" scenarios built by others [64][65][66] . ...
... They are based on an analysis of the complex forcefield that impacts upon the issue under investigation and identification of the forces that are perceived to drive its future. The driving forces of change that are considered the most powerful and the most uncertain are used as two dimensions that frame four alternative, extreme, yet plausible futures (Schwartz, 1996). Explorative scenarios are well-suited to enhance our understanding of a complex crisis such as the corona pandemic and a complex sector such as the visitor economy (Hines & Bishop, 2015;Lindgren & Bandhold, 2009;Postma & Yeoman, 2021). ...
... Finally, it should be noted that the methods used rest upon the scenario planning method. Scenario planning is a tool for strategic thinking (Schwartz 1997) and a source for learning (De Geus 1988). Note that scenario planning is not about foretelling the future. ...
Germany has one of the most ambitious energy transition policies dubbed ‘Die Energiewende’ to replace nuclear- and fossil power with renewables such as wind-, solar- and biopower. The climate gas emissions are reduced by 25% in the study period of 2002 through 2022. By triangulating available information sources, the total nominal expenditures are estimated at EUR 387 bn, and the associated subsidies are some EUR 310 bn giving a total nominal expenditures of EUR 696 bn. Alternatively, Germany could have kept the existing nuclear power in 2002 and possibly invest in new nuclear capacity. The analysis of these two alternatives shows that Germany could have reached its climate gas emission target by achieving a 73% cut in emissions on top of the achievements in 2022 and simultaneously cut the spending in half compared to Energiewende. Thus, Germany should have adopted an energy policy based on keeping and expanding nuclear power.
... Sólo sugiere diversas secuencias de eventos con el propósito de sensibilizar a los tomadores de decisiones sobre lo que puede acontecer. Facilitan desarrollar una visión de largo plazo en un mundo con alta incertidumbre (Schwartz, 1991 a) Escenario + +: "Futuro auspicioso", con recomposición de precios de la hacienda y sobreoferta de maíz, sin variación de precios de otros insumos, manteniendo la productividad. b) Escenario + -: "Oportunidad controlada", con recomposición de precios de la hacienda superior al incremento del costo de los componentes de las dietas, manteniendo la productividad. ...
La ganadería es considerada un factor clave para el desarrollo sostenible de los sistemas
agroalimentarios, por su contribución a la seguridad alimentaria, la nutrición, el alivio de la
pobreza en muchas regiones subdesarrolladas del planeta y el crecimiento económico (FAO,
2023; Viglizzo, 2018). La posibilidad de atender estos problemas persistentes, que han sido
recogidos en los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible de la Agenda 2030 de Naciones Unidas,
dependerá de la capacidad del sector para adoptar innovaciones que aborden una gama de
necesidades cada vez más diversa y compleja. En los sistemas ganaderos, la alimentación
constituye un factor crítico para que la hacienda alcance su potencial productivo,
contribuyendo asimismo al bienestar y la salud animal. La mayor productividad, por otra parte,
reduce la cantidad de emisiones de GEI generadas por cada unidad de producto (intensidad
de emisiones) (Opio y Sangoluisa, 2021). En este orden de ideas, uno de los desafíos en
regiones con características semiáridas como el Sudoeste bonaerense (SOB) de la Argentina,
es balancear la dieta fibrosa para la etapa de terminación de animales livianos a corral. Frente
a ello, la Agencia de Extensión del Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria ha
efectuado análisis y relevamientos de los resultados productivos de la implementación de un
nuevo producto nitrogenado líquido empleado como suplemento en la dieta. Para
complementar estos estudios, el presente trabajo persigue evaluar económicamente el
resultado marginal de la adopción de suplementación nitrogenada líquida, respecto de
alternativa de suplementación sin este agregado, en procesos de invernada de la región del
SOB. Se busca apoyar la toma de decisiones de alimentación a partir de la gestión de costos
y de indicadores a incluir en el sistema de información gerencial de la empresa agropecuaria,
que ayuden al control de gestión y a una evaluación racional de las opciones planteadas. Para
cumplir con este objetivo, se adoptó un enfoque de investigación exploratorio-descriptivo,
aplicando el método de estudio de caso sobre un ensayo realizado en un establecimiento del
SOB. Se buscó integrar las visiones de ingenieros agrónomos extensionistas y de
profesionales en ciencias económicas para generar conocimiento no disponible regionalmente
con un enfoque inter y transdisciplinar, de forma de poder ponderar todos los efectos en la
productividad y los resultados económicos. El estudio reflejó para el caso elegido, un beneficio
marginal por cabeza durante el ciclo de terminación superior para el tratamiento con
suplementación nitrogenada líquida, presentando mayor margen de seguridad y flexibilidad
para el productor ante potenciales variaciones en el costo de los componentes de la ración y
el precio del novillo. El análisis se complementó con el cálculo de indicadores clave de
desempeño para ayudar al monitoreo y seguimiento de las decisiones de alimentación en
procesos de engorde. Frente a las dificultades existentes en las empresas agropecuarias, en
especial pequeñas y medianas, para gestionar información relevante, se verifica el potencial
de las herramientas de la contabilidad de gestión para medir e informar los impactos
económicos de las innovaciones tecnológicas y contribuir a su adopción.
... While scenarios seem to support sustainability integration into technology development, it remains an emergent discipline, with scenarios being described as "methodological chaos" (Bradfield et al., 2005). There is a lack of a step-by-step approach to consider contextual factors and broader sources of uncertainties -which are common in technology development -when generating and using scenarios (Schwartz, 1991). The motivation of this research is therefore to provide support for decision-making when assessing sustainability in technology development. ...
The integration of sustainability into highly uncertain technology development is key to support manufacturing companies to reduce their environmental impacts. The use of future scenarios to support decision-making in early design for sustainability is promising, but there is a lack of systematic guidelines on how to build them. Through literature review and empirical research scenario-building guidelines were designed. The guidelines are step-by-step activities to be performed in workshops. Results suggest the guidelines were successful in building consistent, plausible, and useful scenarios.
... Aquí se determinan los retos, los conflictos, las posibles jugadas o las estrategias que se deben diseñar para lograr el "escenario apuesta". Para este caso se utilizará el programa Mactor Para la construcción de los escenarios, se empleará la técnica creada por Schwartz (1991), donde se plantean los escenarios posibles, tendenciales, exploratorios y de apuesta. En esta etapa, no solo se diseñarán los escenarios, sino que también se llevará a cabo un análisis y una explicación de cada uno de ellos, lo que nos permitirá la elección de un "escenario apuesta". ...
The objective of the research is to strategically analyze with a prospective approach the Genpharma Corporation, through an expert method, using prospective tools, to project the current situation with its variables and main actors to conclude in the most optimal scenario that leads to a better take of decisions and the activation of the implicit social actors in this task. The state of the art related to the theoretical observations of the strategic analysis is presented, the prospective approach and its main regularities and particularities, as well as the most widespread methodologies in the world. Theoretical and empirical methods were used; together with the documentary review and the use of tools, such as the Godet box of strategic foresight and the strategic analysis of the environment with the SWOT matrix. All allowed to conclude on the strategic hypotheses of the company under study.
... A prospecção de cenários é uma ferramenta útil na construção de estratégias mais adequadas e realistas. Schwartz (1998) Charron et al. (2014) Lean é uma abordagem sistemática e focada para orientar a aprendizagem e a educação dos funcionários, abrangendo um plano de transformação organizacional individual e coletivo para a implantação de um sistema sociotécnico e de gestão de mudança. ...
... Ini adalah suatu proses di mana individu atau organisasi menciptakan berbagai skenario atau gambaran masa depan yang berbeda untuk membantu mereka memahami, merencanakan, dan menghadapi ketidakpastian dan risiko yang mungkin terjadi. Hal tersebut senada dengan apa yang dikemukakan oleh Peter Schwartz (1991) yang mengemukakan bahwa organisasi atau perusahaan harus memahami dan menghadapi berbagai kemungkinan masa depan yang mungkin terjadi. Pemikiran skenario membantu perusahaan mempertimbangkan berbagai risiko dan peluang yang berbeda, serta memungkinkan mereka untuk merencanakan dan mengambil tindakan yang lebih adaptif dan responsif terhadap dinamika pasar dan lingkungan bisnis yang selalu berubah. ...
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui apakah materi yang membahas mengenai mental process diberikan dalam pelatihan dan bagaimana konstruksi materi mental process dalam pelatihan penggerak penguatan moderasi beragama, untuk menemukan jawaban tersebut peneliti menggunakan metode library reseach, hal menarik yang berhasil ditemukan dalam penelitian ini adalah bahwa materi yang membahas teori dan konsep tentang mental process diberikan kepada peserta pelatihan, konstruksi materi mental process yang diberikan kepada peserta dimulai dari materi The Map Is not The Territory yang dijadikan ilmu alat untuk membongkar asumsi – asumsi yang dijadikan sebagai kebenaran yang mutlak, kemudian materi Ladder of Inference yang menyadarkan peserta akan pentingnya melakukan refleksi atau mengulangi kembali tahapan berfikir atas suatu peristiwa sosial keagamaan untuk menghindari bias kognitif, selanjutnya materi U Theory, Scenario thinking dan Sytem thinking. Materi – materi mental process diberikan kepada peserta pelatihan penggerak penguatan moderasi beragama bertujuan untuk membongkar kekeliruan berpikir dan asumsi subjektif atas keragaman dan perbedaan, Membangun kesadaran peserta akan pentingnya pola pikir, sikap dan perilaku yang inklusif dan meningkatkan pemahaman peserta tentang keberagaman sosial dan keagamaan.
... It could be seen as a mix between the intuitive logics school and trend analysis (Fergnani, 2020), and some fear that the limitation to two key uncertainties risk overlooking other important aspects of the future. Finally, the Shell method is the intuitive logics approach, and was clearly presented in Peter Schwartz' book The Art of the Long View (Schwartz, 1991), It is based on an iterative approach, and as stated above, the goal is to change mindsets and open eyes, not forecast the probably future. ...
Businesses are increasingly integrating sustainability-or Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG)-into existing strategies or developing separate sustainability strategies. Simultaneously, they are reporting on their sustainability related impacts, and the use of scenarios is becoming more common both in strategy development and risk assessments aimed at reporting. However, the value of the approaches to scenario analysis in the main sustainability reporting and ESG frameworks is questionable. They tend to be technically oriented and not conducive to explaining and communicating key strategically important aspects of the futures sought understood , which overlooks other critical sustainability dimensions such as social equity and inclusive economic growth. Furthermore, such use of scenarios is not conducive for promoting innovation. This article examines the current use of scenarios, focusing on common business practices, while also emphasising the need to be ambitious and utilise the potential of science fiction in the scenario process. I propose a practical, pragmatic, and "non-ideal" version of scenario development that is a) an improvement on current business practices and b) accessible and useful for companies wanting to utilize scenarios without extensive resources or the inclination to rely heavily on external scenario experts. This culminates in a recommendation that adopt a more comprehensive approach to sustainability scenarios than what is found in mainstream reporting frameworks. By deepening their engagement with scenarios, organisations will be able to improve the foundations for their strategy development processes, which will also be more tightly coupled with an organisation's innovation management and design processes. Most importantly, however, comprehensive science fiction scenarios can help enable a more sustainable future. By creating and shaping imaginaries of more sustainable futures, such futures become more likely.
... Since the oil shock made it impossible to envision a secure future, most Fortune 1000 companies began using scenario planning in one way or another by the late 19 th century (Ringland, 1998). Furthermore, Schwartz (1991) explains the concept that the future is not pre-set and is the foundation of scenario planning. Scenario planning can be divided into the following steps: identify the key uncertainties, develop scenarios, evaluate the scenarios, and develop strategies. ...
PT Pertamina Patra Niaga is facing an era of energy transition, and one of the biggest phenomena is the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Massive EV adoption will impact Patra Niaga’s future business, and they must prepare a strategy to deal with these changes. This research aims to determine the factors that influence EV adoption in Indonesia and propose strategies that need to be carried out by Patra Niaga. The literature review shows that internal and external factors are very influential in determining Patra Niaga’s strategy. The research design is qualitative, with data obtained from primary sources from interviews and secondary data sources, including industry documents, reports, and journals. Using the scenario planning method with the PESTEL approach, the paper identifies four possible scenarios for the future of EV adoption in Indonesia. The possible scenarios are green tech frontier, policy-driven change, market-led innovation, and stagnant development. Environment analysis conducted both external analysis and internal analysis. The research uses Porter’s Five Forces to identify rivalry among the industry players for external analysis. Meanwhile, the internal analysis uses the use VRIO Framework to identify the competitive advantage of the company and the strength and weakness analysis to determine the opportunities and threats for the company. Finally, the research uses the BCG Matrix to develop a strategy for each scenario. Based on the BCG Matrix, the proposed strategies are to invest more in the EV infrastructure where the scenario is green tech frontier, to invest or divest where the scenario is policy-driven, to keep the EV infrastructure business running where the scenario is market-led innovation, and to s liquidated where the scenario is stagnant development. The chosen strategy is suggested to be implemented based on the probability of occurrence for each of the scenarios within a timeframe from the year 2024 to 2035 by involving various divisions in the company, including marketing, business development, and project leader of the EV division.
... A traditional scenario design methodology adapted from the well-known Shell scenario design approaches was chosen (van der Heijden, 1996;Schwartz, 1991). Scenarios in this respect should be considered possible and plausible futures, which follow logically from the combination of developments in the context of the field under study (Enserink et al., 2013), in this case the contextual factors influencing the Nile basin such as climate change and urbanization. ...
Land and water acquisitions exacerbate the complexity of the water allocation challenges in the Nile region and consequently have contributed to the growing tensions along the Nile River. Smallholders are especially negatively affected by the increase in water use by foreign investors, the loss of access to the commons, and disposition of ownership. This policy brief is a result of a scenario workshop organized in early 2020 in Leiden, the Netherlands, during which some 30 young scientists from a variety of disciplines joined forces to develop four plausible Nile-futures in 2050. The exercise revealed new challenges and potential knowledge gaps in four areas of policy-based research: local innovation and technology, institutional capacity, gover- nance, and investment regulation. Most urgent was the recommendation to have a unified basin- wide university, which would support basin-wide legislation to promote sustainable farming and reduce the negative impacts of land and water acquisitions.
... The majority of literature is more business/ economics oriented, mostly dealing with methodology and benefits of the scenario use in strategic planning of company operation (Lindgren and Bandhold, 2003). Also the contribution of futurists must not be neglected since it brings significant knowledge about theory of the scenario building and also of the ethics on the scenario use (Schwartz, 1991;Mannermaa, 1996). ...
Article presents the review of the theoretical framework for a specific question that arose from the use of the scenario technique in the field of landscape planning. This specific issue is: does the use of scenarios influence the perception of the cultural landscape changes and actions the individuals take to change the cultural landscape? Review includes research articles aiming to approve the influence of scenarios and also case studies of scenario use in the field of landscape planning that perceived possible influence of scenario use on stakeholders. The decision for the review was stimulated by the growing popularity of the scenario-based studies connected with landscape planning and environmental issues. Scenarios are also an important incentive for public participation. The question is whether we can influence relations between individuals and cultural landscape by showing them evidently with scenarios, how the future landscape will look like.
... As reported in the literature, this method appears to be the most frequently used one by scenario practitioners (Ramirez & Wilkinson, 2014). This deductive method involves the identification of critical uncertainties that appear to influence the future development of the matter of interest, that is, the factors that are most important and uncertain and their employment by means of either a single main axis or-usually-two axes that formulate a two-by-two matrix (Schwartz, 1991). These critical uncertainties should be causally independent, should be part of the contextual environment, and should not belong in the sphere of influence of the intended scenario user. ...
... The building up of the collective will and the collective institutional limbs of the "global subject" (Schellnhuber 1998(Schellnhuber , 1999) is essentially a political taskone in which the science and technology system needs to play a facilitating role. One possible direction is the involvement of the Earth system community with policy makers and stakeholders in the construction of alternative scenarios for the Earth system, making use of available and ad hoc simulation models, qualitative analysis, and goal-setting to explore (not predict!) alternative future trajectories of the global system in its ecospheric and anthropospheric dimensions (Schwartz 1991;Gallopín et al. 1997;Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000). This can be very powerful in making clear uncertainties and irreversibilities (biophysical and social) that are critical for humankind (thus helping to shape the research agenda) as well as the magnitude and complexity of the problem that requires the reconciliation of conflicting and disparate interests. ...
Demonstrates how understanding the intertwined evolution of the Earth's geosphere and biosphere can contribute to the achievement of global sustainability.
Earth System Analysis for Sustainability uses an integrated systems approach to provide a panoramic view of planetary dynamics since the inception of life some four billion years ago and to identify principles for responsible management of the global environment in the future. Perceiving our planet as a single entity with hypercomplex, often unpredictable behavior, the authors use Earth system analysis to study global changes past and future. They explore the question of whether the unprecedented human-originated changes transforming the ecosphere today will end a 10,000-year period of climate stability.
The book presents the complete story of the inseparably intertwined evolution of life and matter on Earth, focusing on four major topics: long-term geosphere-biosphere interaction and the possibility of using extrasolar planets to test various geophysical hypotheses; the Quaternary Earth System's modes of operation; current planetary dynamics under human pressure; and transition to global sustainability. Written by leading figures in the disciplines of geology, climatology, evolution, biogeochemistry, macroeconomics, and institutions theory, Earth System Analysis for Sustainability analyzes the driving forces behind global change and uses this knowledge to propose principles to propose principles for global stewardship.
... Fortunately, "it is possible to identify more long-term structural factors that influence the future independent of individuals and events" (ibidem). DoCs are the backbone or foundation (Van Asselt et al. 2010) in Scenarios and determine the stories' outcome (Schwartz 1991). Two DoCs are the input variablesthe critical yet independent uncertaintiesthat form the axes of a 2x2 matrix (Chermack 2011). ...
Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) must embrace change in a continually evolving global higher education landscape. Adopting strategic foresight is a promising means to explore the underlying Drivers of Change (DoCs) in a VUCA world, as foresight activities are rarely leveraged by HEIs themselves. This study presents a comprehensive research approach to explore 60 DoCs of strategic relevance to HEIs worldwide. Our theoretical contribution consists of an explanation of the four-step exploration process adapted to the needs of HEIs and conducted at an HEI, as well as a detailed explanation of the developed DoCs descriptions based on 1'375 cited references and 571 other sources. Managerial implication is that HEIs' senior leadership can use this knowledge to inform their strategic decision-making and gain institutional support by engaging faculty and the community. This study facilitates HEIs to proactively deal with change and develop robust strategies in the dynamic global higher education landscape.
... Aquí se determinan los retos, los conflictos, las posibles jugadas o las estrategias que se deben diseñar para lograr el "escenario apuesta". Para este caso se utilizará el programa Mactor Para la construcción de los escenarios, se empleará la técnica creada por Schwartz (1991), donde se plantean los escenarios posibles, tendenciales, exploratorios y de apuesta. En esta etapa, no solo se diseñarán los escenarios, sino que también se llevará a cabo un análisis y una explicación de cada uno de ellos, lo que nos permitirá la elección de un "escenario apuesta". ...
El trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar estratégicamente con enfoque prospectivo las posibilidades de la Corporación Genpharma, a través de un método de expertos, utilizando herramientas prospectivas, para lograr proyectar la situa-ción actual con sus variables y actores principales para concluir en el escenario óptimo que propicie una mejor toma de decisiones y la activación de los actores socia-les implícitos en esta tarea. Se presenta el estado del arte relacionado con las observaciones teóricas del análisis es-tratégico; el enfoque prospectivo y sus principales regula-ridades y particularidades, así como las metodologías más difundidas en el mundo. Se utilizaron métodos teóricos y empíricos; unidos a la revisión documental y el empleo de herramientas, como la caja de Godet de prospectiva y los análisis estratégicos del entorno con la matriz DAFO. Todos permitieron concluir sobre las hipótesis estratégicas de la empresa objeto de estudio
The Russo-Ukraine War has exposed the vulnerabilities of Western Europe’s energy security, which has traditionally relied heavily on Russian energy supplies. This excessive dependency has resulted in energy shortages, price volatility, and inflation due to continuing disruptions. By employing the scenario-building technique, this study offers insight into the implications of the War on energy security, strategic choices, and policy considerations for stakeholders as a result of scenario building. The scenario building technique used in this study is modified version that has been modelled by the author by totally overhauling the conventional model in practice. The study projects potential scenarios by leveraging the modified scenarios building and development technique. The findings signify the necessity of thoroughly reevaluating Europe’s stance towards the conflict, identifying looming threats, strategic adaptability regarding the diversification of energy resources and routes, and creating a collaborative European Union framework to articulate collective responses to mitigate the risks. Finally, the results are presented in four major probable future scenarios, each displaying unique challenges and strategic choices. Concluding with geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic triggers and their graduation on impact and probability indices, offer a whole sum view to the stakeholders of the Western Europe to mitigate threats to their energy security amid ongoing Russo-Ukraine War. In a nutshell, while advancing the discourse on Western Europe’s energy security, the study offers a nuanced analysis and detailed strategic roadmap for the future of energy, where these scenarios underscore the critical need to pacify the conflict, anticipate the long-term risks and their mitigation, diversify the energy sources, enhance energy efficiency, formulate resilient energy policies, the collaborative framework within the European Union, collective energy purchase and storage mechanism.
Long-range planning is an uncertain endeavor. This is especially true for urban regions, small ships in a global urban storm that are too small to influence macro policies and without the land-use powers of local governments. Exploratory scenarios, the established practice for planning under deep uncertainty, have inspired stakeholders to consider multiple futures but have fallen short of identifying robust and contingent policies. We need new tools to plan under conditions of deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery is a technique for using simulation models to explore the performance of policy options across uncertain scenarios. This paper presents an application of scenario discovery in land-use modeling and asks what this computationally intensive approach offers relative to a more circumscribed exploration of uncertainty space. The introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and their associated impacts on land use provide a test case demonstrating this method, as well as a topic of substantive concern. This research concludes that scenario discovery is particularly valuable for identifying the conditions under which contingent policies are likely to succeed. In terms of AV policy, this research establishes that forward-thinking, transit-oriented-development strategies can mitigate spatial dispersion while also reducing overall housing costs. In addition, I find that AVs may blunt the impacts of some current policy tools if they extend the distance individuals are willing to travel to work.
There is no single recipe for a successful planning process. Instead, communities must take advantage of the ingredients at their disposal. A variety of techniques, both high- and low-tech, can be used. None is failsafe; each has pros and cons. Typically, their success will depend on both the community's resources and its resourcefulness. In this review, we briefly describe and assess techniques that can be used to aid five phases of a participatory planning process: those concerning goals, information, options, decisions, and monitoring. We conclude with recommendations for ways to build, not simply a plan, but a stronger social fabric. In particular, we argue that participants in a planning process should be treated, not primarily as representatives of vested interests, but as citizens with the responsibility and capability to plan for the common good.
It has long been recognized that the role of futures studies in order to appropriate policies for unknown and uncertain futures is undeniable. But the weak link of this knowledge with policy-making is one of the biggest challenges that researchers face in the futures studies. Therefore, the current research seeks to provide a career approach in order to apply futures studies in the contextual environment. Since policy analysis is an important step in the policy-making process and on the other hand, based on reliable sources, not using futures studies in the policy-making process is due to the weak link between policy analysis and futures studies, so in this research, improving the link between futures studies and policy analysis is considered. In order to achieve this goal, using library studies, ten factors improving the link of futures studies and policy analysis were identified, and then, using the opinion of the focus group, eight main factors were confirmed and their alternatives were extracted. In the following, using the scenario planning method and scenario wizard software, four consistent scenarios based on uncertainties: "type of view and judgment towards the future", "type of policy analysis", "conditions of the policy environment towards the future", "actors' approach towards the future" , "understanding the system in the face of future issues", "institutional conditions of openness to alternatives", "time focus" and "uncertainty level", with the names "Futurology", "Forecasting", "Foresight" and "Futures research" and Seven intermediate scenarios close to the real space were obtained with the titles of "Interpretive Futurology", "Time series Forecasting", "Cause & Effect Forecasting", "Judgmental Forecasting", "Model-Based Foresight", "Dynamic Foresight" and "Open Foresight". These scenarios enable policy makers to conduct more accurate policy analysis and policy analysis in different decision-making coordinates, and to improve their strategies regarding future threats and opportunities.
The purpose of strategy is to make better-informed decisions in response to a strategic challenge. In strategic problem-solving, analysis lays the groundwork for decision-making. Consequently, firms tend to invest substantial effort into the analysis part of problem-solving, but then struggle when it comes to transforming insights into appropriate decisions and actions. The lack of guidance in management thinking on the transition from analysis to decision-making points to a critical theory-practice gap in the current management literature. In this chapter, we address this dilemma and develop a conceptually rigorous approach for transitioning from analysis to option formation. We examine how first principles-based, insight-driven thinking and analysis not only establishes root causality of a challenge but also lays the conceptual groundwork for transforming insights into suitable courses of action, and the mechanisms by which strategic options are scoped, dimensioned, and crafted. Building on the same principles, we examine how strategic options, once formulated, are evaluated and selected on the basis of criteria derived from the five strategy building blocks (5-SBBs) construct. The chapter closes with a case application that illustrates the applicability of the approach presented to a real-world business transaction.
The economies of many countries in the modern world are undergoing significant transformations underpinned by megatrends resulting from political, environmental, military, social, economic or technological changes. One of the main sectors that is fundamentally changing and affecting the functioning of the entire economy is the energy sector.
The purpose of this article is to present the development trends determining changes in the functioning of the energy sector and within it the gas sector. For the purpose of the study, the PESTL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal) analysis method was used. The factors were presented in the context of opportunities and threats in the time perspective: 2030, 2040 i 2050.
The purpose of this chapter is to explore improvements in existing corporate governing practices that are currently being implemented through methods that lag behind most of the recent developments taking place in the field of computer science. The authors suggest taking on board systems modeling by adopting a computer-assisted policy design based on system dynamics simulators. Implementing a system thinking approach to business organizations allows the designing of virtuous strategies by simulating organizational behavior. In addition, this approach may also help to mitigate unintended consequences, like risks and outcomes which may surprise the firm, particularly from the board-level perspective. The originality of the present work arrives from merging several approaches that have been around for many years, however not combined in the context of the business policy conceptual framework. Therefore, it brings together recent developments in the fields of business policy, systems thinking, and computer-assisted policy design.
Analyses of disciplines encompassing futures studies reveal a prevailing tendency to perceive time as a linear sequence of projections. However, this perspective is not applicable to the current context of social transformation in the age of globalization and digitization, such as sustainable development. Preliminary investigations into time-based design and futures studies have shown the potential of time-based paradigms for predicting reliable future scenarios and redesigning current forms of spaces, relationships, and services in response to these desired futures. In this paper, we describe a project of an Ephemeral and Temporary Space Design Laboratory, which has been a pedagogical experiment for 3 years to date in the School of Design at the Politecnico di Milano. The objective of this project is to systematically design an area of the city by reflecting on the relationship between design systems and social change, using participatory design methods such as field research and interviews with local residents to systematically redesign the urban space of the Lodi/Corvetto area in the city of Milan. This research aims to investigate the systematic influence of time factors on the spatial design of urban communities through futuristic and time/space-based design perspectives. The findings demonstrate that the utilization of time-based paradigms and tools can effectively enhance the time-based design approach, resulting in its increased integration within the design process. This integration plays a pivotal role in the construction of systems that have the capability to interact with and catalyze social transformation within the broader public and shared community.
This chapter describes scenario thinking and provides an understanding of its fundamental value in grappling with uncertainty and strategic decision-making associated with decarbonization. By way of examples, the author of this chapter introduces three use-cases.
Un adecuado diagnóstico al iniciar el proceso de ventas industriales puede llevar el desempeño comercial de los vendedores y el resultado de las empresas a un nivel superior, puesto que, al clarificar el repertorio de posibilidades disponibles con las herramientas adecuadas se favorece la toma de decisiones reduciendo la dependencia del azar. Se plantean como objetivos; diferenciar el análisis del entorno como una competencia cognitiva para la construcción de posibilidades, en segundo lugar, proponer las diferentes técnicas y herramientas metodológicas que permiten conocer el comportamiento de los actores, las dinámicas y la realidad que configuran un determinado contexto de ventas entre empresas de alto riesgo y alta complejidad (B2B). Adicionalmente se propone un ejercicio para el control de calidad en la toma de decisiones económicas y diversas herramientas adaptadas a las ventas. Se consideró un enfoque epistemológico mixto (cualitativo y cuantitativo) acorde al tipo de métodos y herramientas descritas para los análisis producidos, con profundidad en la revisión documental. Los resultados expresan que, una gestión comercial exitosa no es aquella que se basa solo en la intuición y la experiencia, estas aproximaciones a la realidad pueden estar sesgadas o conducir a errores. Finalizando se esquematiza el análisis del entorno según su nivel, apoyada por las tecnologías organizacionales y las conclusiones respectivas.
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