This paper identifies and assesses factors that may characterize students at risk of dropping out, based on a ninth grade class of Cincinnati (Ohio) public school students which was followed for five years, from 1984-85 to 1988-89. The paper aims to develop a quick, easy, and reliable method that teachers, counselors, and principals can use to select at-risk students for intervention strategies.
... [Show full abstract] The following factors are assessed: (1) race; (2) sex; (3) reading achievement; (4) promotion to the next grade level; and (5) type of high school. The following factors were determined to be risk factors for the ninth grade cohort: (1) being male; (2) having a total reading National Curve Equivalent in the bottoom third of distribution on the California Achievement Test; (3) repeating the ninth grade; and (4) being enrolled in a comprehensive (non-alternative) school. Once a factor has been identified as a risk factor, the method for selecting students for intervention is based on summation of the individual student's risk factors where each factor counts one. Graduation was the termination event for 90 percent of the students who had a risk score of zero. Conversely, dropping out was the terminating event of over 80 percent of the students who had a risk score of four. Ten tables are included. (JS)