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Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy
... In intelligence theory, there is an intelligence process consisting of stages of data collection, analysis, dissemination, and application of analysis results for decision-making and feedback (Lowenthal, 2022). The concept of actionable intelligence emphasizes that intelligence analysis results must be relevant, timely, and can be used immediately to support strategic decisions (Carter, 2014). ...
... The concept of tax intelligence as regulated in this provision aligns with the theory of the Intelligence Process, which involves systematic steps in intelligence activities, starting from identifying information needs to delivering analytical products to policymakers (Lowenthal, 2022). The stages of this intelligence process include seven key steps closely aligned with implementing the Tax Intelligence Business Process in the era of DJP's Coretax Application. ...
... The third stage, processing and exploitation, refers to converting raw data into structured information ready for analysis. This stage remains one of the primary challenges in the current "as-is" tax intelligence business process, as the volume of collected data often exceeds processing capacity, and much of the work is conducted manually, reducing efficiency and accuracy (Lowenthal, 2022). ...
Through Tax Reform Volume III, the Directorate General of Taxes (DGT) introduced the Tax Administration Core System (SIAP) or Coretax which aims to revolutionize the tax administration process to increase tax revenue and taxpayer compliance. This study aims to explore changes in the tax intelligence business process, one of the business processes in Coretax. This study is an exploratory study conducted by digging up in-depth information from 14 respondents who are business process owners, users of intelligence reports, and strategic leaders to be then compared with its implementation at the Australian Taxation Office. The study results indicate that the Coretax Application has excellent potential to produce actionable intelligence, namely the results of intelligence activities that are relevant, contextual, and can be used immediately. For this reason, intensive training is needed regarding the application and additional features to increase the effectiveness of the application, data integration to accelerate the exploration of taxpayer potential and ensure the relevance of the information presented, as well as continuous updates to the Coretax Application to face the dynamics of the global economy and technology.
... Za razliku od direktora središnje obavještajne službe, direktor nacionalne obavještajne službe nije izravno povezan ni s jednom specifičnom obavještajnom agencijom, već nadzire sve agencije putem brojnog osoblja, što je izazvalo kritike zbog broja zaposlenika (oko 1500). Pored osoblja direktora središnje obavještajne službe, direktor središnje obavještajne službe kontrolira Nacionalni centar za borbu protiv terorizma, Nacionalni centar za borbu protiv širenja oružja, Nacionalno obavještajno vijeće i Nacionalnog izvršnog direktora za kontraobavještajnu službu (Lowenthal, 2009). ...
... Njegovo osoblje za procjene izrađuje obavještajne procjene bitnih pitanja, slične nacionalnim obavještajnim procjenama u SAD-u. Osim toga, Zajednički obavještajni odbor ima ulogu praćenja i upozoravanja na prijetnje britanskim interesima (Lowenthal, 2009). Postoji jasna razlika između sigurnosti i policije, pri čemu agencije nemaju ovlasti za hapšenje ili kazneno gonjenje; čak ni u slučajevima protuterorizma, to je nadležnost policije i Kraljevske tužiteljske službe, s kojima agencije blisko surađuju. ...
... MI5 nema policijske ovlasti kao što su hapšenje ili pritvor, ali je ovlašten za zaštitu britanskih interesa u inozemstvu. Agencija koristi ljudske agente, prisluškivanje i presretanje komunikacija za prikupljanje obavještajnih podataka (Lowenthal, 2009). Slika 2. Organizacijska struktura MI5 (Safeworld, 2024). ...
Ovaj rad analizira zakonodavne okvire i mehanizme nadzora sigurnosno-obavještajnih sustava u Republici Hrvatskoj, Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, Velikoj Britaniji i Izraelu. U radu se koristi deskriptivno-komparativna metoda za analizu zakonodavnih okvira i nadzornih mehanizama u odabranim zemljama, s ciljem pružanja preporuka za unaprjeđenje hrvatskog zakonodavnog okvira. Naglasak je stavljen na usporedbu pravnog uređenja područja djelovanja sigurnosno-obavještajnih službi, s posebnim naglaskom na pitanja nadzora i transparentnosti. Rad istražuje kako različiti zakonodavni pristupi utječu na učinkovitost zaštite nacionalne sigurnosti te na očuvanje prava i sloboda građana. Detaljnom analizom identificiraju se sličnosti i razlike između nacionalnih sustava te se pružaju preporuke za unaprjeđenje postojećih pravnih okvira u Republici Hrvatskoj, s ciljem postizanja zadovoljavajuće ravnoteže između zaštite sigurnosti države i zaštite privatnosti građana. Predložene preporuke temelje se na najboljoj praksi i nastoje osigurati da hrvatski pravni okvir bude u skladu s najboljim međunarodnim praksama u obavještajnoj zajednici.
... The duo are two sides of a coin which cannot be separated, the outcome of a policy depends on the end result disseminated by the intelligence community. More so, there are some salient factors and concerns required by the PM from the IC these are substantive and bureaucratic supports (Lowenthal, 2014). The PM will be keen to gathered aids and uncompromised supports from the IC. ...
... The existence of intelligence agencies is to avoid strategic surprise from any quarters either from internal or external perpetrators of nefarious crimes against the state, to avail long time expertise, maintain the secrecy of information, needs and methods. When the IC are up and doing in their core responsibilities the PM no doubt, will be able to come out will good policy formulations that will assist all and sundry (Lowenthal, 2014). ...
... Without formidable and proactive IC there is no government of PM will survive in governance, formulating foreign policy, and so on (Bodunde, et al., 2018). Lowenthal (2014) suggests that intelligence gathering must be secretive and yet it must not be compromise by intelligence community in discharging their statutory responsibilities. Onuoha (2018) corroborate Lowenthal that, despite intelligence must be kept secret, the right channel of transforming information to intelligence must be strictly follow using the necessary avenue such as direction, collection, processing, analyzing, dissemination and feedback. ...
Intelligence has been discussed by many scholars across the globe. But no doubt, there is no universal acceptable definition of intelligence. It is germane to explicate intelligence as the result of information that has been collated, evaluated and interpreted. More so, intelligence is the information that have been processed and originated to be truth and accurate about an object, subject, or group of people. Without accurate and timely intelligence there would not be a functional government or sustainable nationhood. This paper focuses on how government could improve on policy formulations through prompt and accurate intelligence from intelligence community (IC) to frustrate, submerge the activities of hostile intelligence service (HIS) cum local perpetrators of crime. The population of the study comprised of the Nigeria Intelligence Community (IC) which are Department of State Services (DSS), Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and National Intelligence Agency (NIA). The sample technique adopted was purposive sampling considering the experiences and knowledge of the participants involved in the study, the data collection were both primary and secondary. The primary data was anchored on qualitative research method (in-depth interviews). While the secondary data was relied on textbooks, journals, theses, internet sources, et cetera. The study was affixed on triarchic theory of intelligence to explored the relationship between the policy makers and intelligence community to produce a better policy for the masses. The study comes to conclusion that timely and accurate intelligence must be gathered by the IC and promptly utilized by the PM to form a policy that will curtail any security threats. The study was conducted in Abuja being the Federal Capital Territory, epicentre of intelligence community and seat of power.
... Intentional threats are those where the adversary aims to cause specific harm (Betts, 2007). These are usually tangible as they involve stated threats, adversary motivations, planned operations, and direct actions taken by an adversary (Lowenthal, 2014). ...
... Intangible aspects of intentional threats are less concrete and often involve perceptions, interpretations, intentions, strategic context, and potential second-or thirdorder effects that are not immediately visible (Betts, 2007;Lowenthal, 2014). These can include political instability, economic trends, or the erosion of social cohesion, which might indirectly lead to harm or conflict. ...
This chapter, Different Kinds of Threat, introduces the intelligence analyst to an analytic framework for considering climate security-related information, events, dynamics, and situations. The traditional development of the intelligence analyst—regardless of national security agency, state or local law enforcement agency, military, for-profit corporation, or non-governmental organization—is based on the intentionality of an adversary, whether an individual, group, or state actor, who intends to cause harm. The chapter distinguishes between intentional threats and unintentional threats. For each type of threat, the chapter differentiates the type of threat in terms of its tangible or intangible effect. Examples of each type of threat and effect are drawn from a climate security context: climate security problems can include intentionality, unintentionality, tangibleness, and intangibleness aspects. An overarching scenario is discussed that covers situations when an intentional threat produces a tangible effect, when an intentional threat produces an intangible effect, when an unintentional threat produces a tangible effect, and when an unintentional threat produces an intangible effect. An example based on a climate security scenario centered on the urban development in a coastal region is used to demonstrate the complexities of analyzing climate security. The chapter ends with a discussion of the role of time as played out within the climate context and in traditional intelligence analysis.
... Estos problemas persisten, en parte, debido a la fragmentación de la información y la falta de coordinación entre los organismos de inteligencia, lo que dificulta la generación de productos coherentes y útiles para los tomadores de decisiones (Gutiérrez-Sánchez y Arciniegas-Londoño, 2022). Para contar con la capacidad de anticipar y responder a amenazas emergentes, la Inteligencia Estratégica se basa en la información más actualizada, lo que es crucial para la toma de decisiones en situaciones de crisis (Lowenthal, 2012). ...
... Este proceso no busca alcanzar una verdad absoluta, sino reducir la incertidumbre mediante la creación de productos confiables, imparciales y sin ambigüedad. Lowenthal (2012) identifica tres categorías fundamentales para entender la inteligencia: como un proceso que guía la recolección y análisis de información; como un producto que surge de dicho análisis; y como una organización que lleva a cabo estas actividades. Esta visión se centra en la "realidad aproximada" que la inteligencia ofrece a los tomadores de decisiones, ayudándoles a enfrentar situaciones complejas y dinámicas con un nivel de incertidumbre reducido. ...
El artículo se basa en una metodología cualitativa, combinando la revisión documental del aporte de expertos, el cual aborda el contexto de la Inteligencia Estratégica en Colombia, en la que la falta de profesionalización y la fragmentación de la información han obstaculizado la capacidad de anticipar y responder a amenazas emergentes. Se justifica la necesidad de adoptar un modelo más coordinado y sistemático-holístico en la recolección y análisis de datos para fortalecer la Seguridad y Defensa Nacional. A lo largo del texto, se tratan temas como la falta de un modelo centralizado, la necesidad de formalizar la Junta de Inteligencia Conjunta como un organismo permanente y la implementación de analítica de datos en tiempo real, concluyendo que estas medidas son esenciales para mejorar la efectividad de la Inteligencia Estratégica en el país.
... In order to assess the support provided by AI systems in the military analysis process, it is first necessary to clarify how the intelligence process works in general (Horlings, 2023). The starting point is the so-called intelligence cycle, which describes the ideal process from the decision maker's request for information to the intelligence product (Lowenthal, 2022). It should be noted that the process is not a linear sequence of individual steps, but includes feedback loops (Hulnick, 2006). ...
This study explores the potential of AI to support the work of military intelligence analysts. In the study, 30 participants were randomly assigned to an experimental condition (in which they could use a proprietary AI tool) and a control group (no access to the AI tool). In both conditions, participants had access to the same dataset of 50 media articles and were asked to provide a comprehensive picture in response to a series of realistic military intelligence tasks. The proprietary AI tool included text search, automatic text summarization, and named entity recognition (NER) capabilities. It was shown that under time pressure, the use of the AI features resulted in better assessments than the control group. It was also shown that the probability estimates of the experimental group were closer to those of the experts. Despite these demonstrably better analysis results and probability estimates in the experimental group, no higher confidence in the sources used for the analysis task was found. Finally, the paper identifies the limitations of using AI in military intelligence, particularly in the context of analyzing ambiguous and contradictory information.
... Obavještajna djelatnost jedna je od najstarijih organiziranih djelatnosti u društvu. Riječ je o strateškom instrumentu kojim se vlade služe kako bi dobile relevantne informacije o neprijateljima ili potencijalnim prijetnjama nacionalnoj sigurnosti svojih zemalja (Lowenthal, 2009). Obavještajnu djelatnost koju provode državna tijela najprikladnije je podijeliti na vojno obavještajnu djelatnost, sigurnosno obavještajnu djelatnost, obavještajnu djelatnost na području vanjskih poslova te kriminalističko obavještajnu djelatnost (engl. ...
Kriminalističko obavještajna djelatnost dobiva veliku važnost u provedbi koncepta društvene sigurnosti. Ona ne predstavlja revolucionaran način obavljanja policijske djelatnosti. Policija se i dalje pridržava najvažnijih načela vođenja, policijskog rada u zajednici, problema usmjerenog policijskog rada i analize. Kako bi borbu policije protiv kriminala učinila učinkovitijom, policija Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva prva na svijetu razvija model obavještajno vođene policijske djelatnosti, koji se temelji na provedbi složenog, strukturiranog i beskrajnog procesa obavještajnog ciklusa. Funkcioniranje i učinkovitost modela daleko je od jednostavnog. Unatoč problemima, kriminalističko obavještajni model Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva ostaje savršen obrazac prema kojem policije diljem svijeta i razne međunarodne organizacije osnivaju svoje kriminalističko obavještajne modele.
... Према Ловенталу (Lowenthal М. Mark) необавештајни рад је класификован према лествици (мердевинама) које у једном смеру представљају испољавање јачине насиља од најниже према највишем степену насиља ради остварења циља и то у примени сваке врсте активности следећим редоследом су наведене активности: пропаганда, па политичке активности, затим економске активности, државни удари и на крају паравојне активности. Ловентал је такође на истој лествици само у супротном смеру извршио класификацију од момента када је уверљива (прихватљива) та активност па када је све више присутно порицање до последње активности, пропаганде (Lowenthal, 2009). У литератури западних теоретичара необавештајни рад служби безбедности у вези је са широким појединачним или координираним формама субверзија, у виду пропагандних (штампања чланака и књига, ширење дезинформација, фалсификовање докумената, манипулација политичким збивањима, и деградација одређених људи путем масовних медија уз коришћење најмодернијих психолошких метода и др), економских (економске помоћи владама до дестабилизације привредног живота, манипулација ценама артикала који имају животну вредност, затим манипулација у сфери монетарне и кредитне политике, штампање књига и ширење дезинформација и др.), политичких (различитих помоћи проамеричким партијама у државама средње и Јужне Америке) и паравојних акција које представљају најперфиднији облик субверзије држава на спољно-политичком плану (различите облике киднаповања, помоћи герилским покретима, наоружавање и давање војне опреме герилским групама, затим убистава појединаца, истакнутих политичара и јавних радника и др). ...
Од свог постанка па до данас, службе безбедности имале су врло битну, често и пресудну улогу у свим важнијим догађајима који су се одиграли у државама од њиховог настанка. Ова улога је углавном зависила од интенција носилаца политичких система и карактера њиховог деловања. Јединствено за све службе безбедности у свету јесу предмети њиховог безбедносног интересовања, који у зависности од времена у коме се одвијају представљју одговоре на актуелне ризике и претње усмерене против државе и друштва у сваком смислу. Циљ овог рада jeсте да се научном дескрипцијом структурално презентују најчешће технике необавештајног рада служби безбедности, као инструмента помоћу којег организоване државе са позиције силе креирају своју спољну политику и међународни положај. У раду је комплексно дат приказ општег теоријског одређења необавештајног рада са његовом класификацијом и нормативним одређењем у појединим међународним документима. Посебан део истраживања односи се на идентификацију различитих облика необавештајног рада служби безбедности у пракси, у односу на организациони карактер и устројство саме службе безбедности, где су актуелна збивања на глобалном нивоу показала да је необавештајни рад служби безбедности, услед напретка нових информационих технологија, постао изузетно битна техника обавештајно-безбедносних система савремених држава и неизоставни безбедносни иструмент државе данас. Резултат овог истраживања су препоруке, да је неопходно интезивно јачање контраобавештајних потенцијала националних обавештајно-безбедносних система, као реакција на све идентификоване и будуће технике необавештајног рада служби безбедности. У раду је корипћен метод теоријске анализе и дедуктивни метод, за спознају и објашњење субверзивних и несубверзивних активности необавештајног рада служби безбедности.
... Termed many things-black propaganda, underground propaganda, or subversive propaganda -the stratagem is designed to persuade people to do something that they would not originally do.' (Prunckun, 2019, p. 225) According to Daugherty (2007) propaganda is used with the intent to 'influence -to bolster or to change -what a person or group believes' (Daugherty in Johnson, 2007, p. 281). Propaganda is also considered part of the covert action toolkit (Lowenthal, 2009(Lowenthal, , 2019 and thus also frequently part of hybrid warfare . ...
... In order to assess the support provided by AI systems in the military analysis process, it is first necessary to clarify how the intelligence process works in general [13]. The starting point is the so-called intelligence cycle, which describes the ideal process from the decision maker's request for information to the intelligence product [19]. It should be noted that the process is not a linear sequence of individual steps, but includes feedback loops [14]. ...
It is beyond dispute that the potential benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) in military intelligence are considerable. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain precisely how AI can enhance the analysis of military data. The aim of this study is to address this issue. To this end, the AI demonstrator deepCOM was developed in collaboration with the start-up Aleph Alpha. The AI functions include text search, automatic text summarization and Named Entity Recognition (NER). These are evaluated for their added value in military analysis. It is demonstrated that under time pressure, the utilization of AI functions results in assessments clearly superior to that of the control group. Nevertheless, despite the demonstrably superior analysis outcome in the experimental group, no increase in confidence in the accuracy of their own analyses was observed. Finally, the paper identifies the limitations of employing AI in military intelligence, particularly in the context of analyzing ambiguous and contradictory information.
... Although literature on irregular forces alludes to a connection with the state, whereby their actions in conflict "supplement the state" it is important to consider that these groups "have their own agendas, methods and networks" (Robb 2008: 86). It is argued that their covert means of operation, void of any form of accountability structure, offers the state a degree of plausible deniability (Lowenthal 2016). ...
The United States (US) involvement in covert action abroad has received significant scholarly attention, including the outsourcing of force to third parties, such as foreign death squads, private paramilitaries, and more recently private military and security companies. However, less attention has been paid to the routine and everyday mechanisms the US state uses to administer outsourced force, and the impacts this has both on the combatants and civilians. Through a historical examination of the covert conflict in Laos from 1962–1975, this article documents the routine administrative mechanisms the US state employed to prosecute an illegal war. This article’s principal contribution to the state crime literature is the documentation of the hidden harms this generated both for the combatants used and the civilians affected by the violence. This contribution is grounded in interviews conducted with ex-service people from the conflict period and archival research, including recently declassified materials.
... The characteristics of intelligence strategy include a systematic approach, speed, accuracy, secrecy, adaptability, and utilization of information technology (Gottschalk 2010). There are three types of intelligence strategy: offensive, defensive, and combined (Lowenthal 2011, Betts 2015, Johnson 2010. The levels of intelligence strategy include grand strategy, operational strategy, and tactical strategy (Andrew 2018, Warner 2009, Hulnick 2006. ...
This research analyzes the intelligence strategies employed by the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DGCE) in Indonesia to combat the evolving landscape of smuggling in the era of Industry 4.0. The study aims to identify and analyze current intelligence practices and subsequently formulate effective strategies for early detection, prevention, and suppression of smuggling activities. Employing a qualitative research methodology, the study utilizes NVivo 14 software to analyze data gathered from relevant sources. The findings reveal a significant increase in the complexity of smuggling operations, characterized by the involvement of transnational organized crime syndicates, sophisticated trade-based money laundering schemes, and the exploitation of electronic commerce (e-commerce) platforms. Despite these challenges, the research indicates that customs intelligence has not been fully maximized as a tool for economic security. Therefore, this study proposes the adoption of a dynamic and adaptive customs intelligence strategy. This strategy encompasses crucial aspects such as strengthening legal frameworks, optimizing organizational structure, enhancing human resource capabilities, and modernizing intelligence facilities and infrastructure. With implementing these recommendations, the DGCE can optimize the role of customs intelligence in safeguarding national economic security and effectively enforcing customs and excise laws in the face of increasingly sophisticated smuggling threats.
... Karakteristik strategi intelijen meliputi pendekatan sistematis, kecepatan, ketepatan, kerahasiaan, adaptabilitas,dan pemanfaatan teknologi informasi (Gottschalk, 2010). Terdapat tiga jenis strategi intelijen: ofensif, defensif, dan kombinasi (Lowenthal, 2011;Betts, 2015;Johnson, 2010). Tingkatan strategi intelijen meliputi grand strategy,operational strategy, dan tactical strategy (Andrew, 2018;Warner, 2009;Hulnick, 2006). ...
Abstratct This research analyzes the intelligence strategies of the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DGCE) in Indonesia in addressing the dynamics of smuggling since the era of the industrial revolution 4.0. It aims to formulate effective customs intelligence strategies for the early detection, prevention, and combating of smuggling. This study employs a qualitative method with the assistance of NVivo 14 software.The findings indicate an increase in the complexity of smuggling, involving transnational organized crime, trade-based money laundering, and the utilization of electronic commerce (e-commerce). However, customs intelligence has not been optimally utilized as economic intelligence.Therefore, an effective and adaptive customs intelligence strategy is required, encompassing the strengthening of regulations, organizational structure, human resources, and customs intelligence facilities and infrastructure. This strategy aims to optimize the role of customs intelligence in maintaining national security in the economic sector and enforcing customs and excise laws. Abstrak Penelitian ini menganalisis strategi intelijen Direktorat Jenderal Bea dan Cukai (DJBC) dalam menghadapi dinamika penyelundupan sejak era revolusi industri 4.0. Tujuannya adalah merumuskan strategi intelijen kepabeanan yang efektif untuk deteksi dini, pencegahan, dan penanggulangan penyelundupan. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan metode kualitatis dengan berbantuan aplikasi NVivo14. Hasilnya menunjukkan peningkatan kompleksitas penyelundupan, melibatkan kejahatan terorganisir transnasional, pencucian uang berbasis perdagangan, dan pemanfaatan perdagangan elektronik (e-commerce). Namun, intelijen kepabeanan belum optimal sebagai intelijen ekonomi. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan strategi intelijen kepabeanan yang efektif dan adaptif berupa penguatan regulasi, struktur organisasi, sumber daya manusia, serta sarana dan prasarana intelijen kepabeanan. Strategi ini bertujuan mengoptimalkan peran intelijen kepabeanan dalam menjaga keamanan nasional di bidang ekonomi dan penegakan hukum kepabeanan dan cukai. Kata kunci: Intelijen Pabean, Intelijen Ekonomi, Ancaman Penyelundupan, Revolusi Industri 4.0, Intelijen Ekonomi, Keamanan Nasional. PENDAHULUAN Revolusi Industri ditandai oleh perubahan signifikan dalam pengelolaan sumber daya dan teknologi. Setiap fase revolusi, mulai dari 1.0 hingga 4.0, menghasilkan dampak besar pada ekonomi, sosial, dan politik global. Revolusi 4.0 memfokuskan pada digitalisasi manufaktur melalui data besar, komputasi, kecerdasan bisnis, interaksi manusia-mesin, dan teknologi seperti robotika serta pencetakan 3D. Menurut Klaus Schwab, Revolusi Industri 4.0 merupakan perubahan besar dalam cara manusia berproduksi, konsumsi, dan berinteraksi, didorong oleh integrasi fisik, digital, dan biologis. Dampaknya meluas ke ekonomi, politik, dan sosial, dengan teknologi seperti AI, IoT, otomasi, dan robotik yang memengaruhi sektor, termasuk kepabeanan melalui gugus fisik dan teknologi (Schwab, 2019).Material baru seperti grafena dan poliheksahidrotriasina (PHTs) belum terklasifikasi dalam Harmonized System Code, sehingga menyulitkan pembebanan tarif Bea Masuk. Teknologi kendaraan nir-awak (drone) juga
... Moreover, digital transformation is revolutionizing national security agencies' intelligence gathering and analysis processes (Kadtke & Wells, 2014;Lowenthal, 2022). By leveraging big data analytics, machine learning algorithms, and artificial intelligence tools, agencies can sift through vast amounts of information to identify patterns, detect anomalies, and predict future threats more accurately and efficiently (Montasari, 2023;Rubin et al., 2014). ...
Digital transformation has profoundly impacted numerous sectors, with national security no exception. This article undertakes a thorough analysis of how digital transformation influences strategies in national security. Employing a bibliometric approach, the study explores the proliferation of digital technologies and their implications for security policies and frameworks. The research identifies key trends, thematic developments, and emerging research fronts at the intersection of digital transformation and national security. It becomes evident that digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and cybersecurity measures play crucial roles in enhancing national defence capabilities and addressing contemporary security threats. These technologies offer unprecedented opportunities for efficiency and effectiveness in security operations. However, alongside these benefits come new challenges, prominently cybersecurity risks and the necessity for robust regulatory frameworks. Integrating advanced technologies into national security strategies demands vigilant management to mitigate potential vulnerabilities and safeguard sensitive information. The article concludes by offering strategic recommendations for policymakers to navigate the complexities of the digital landscape while effectively bolstering national security. These recommendations emphasise the importance of adaptive policies that foster innovation while ensuring resilience against evolving threats. Overall, this research contributes significantly to the expanding literature on digital transformation by providing insights into its profound implications for national security. It sets the stage for future studies to delve deeper into specific technological impacts and policy responses necessary to maintain a secure digital environment.
İstihbarat kendisine yüklenen görev ve sorumlulukları bakımından oldukça önemli, istisnai ve ayrıcalıklı bir konumdadır. Ulusal güvenlik ve dış politika konularında karar alıcıların desteklenmesinde istihbaratın imkân ve kabiliyetlerinden istifade edilmektedir. İstihbarat karar alıcıların zamanında, doğru ve kesin bilgiye olan ihtiyacının karşılanması hayati bir önem arz etmektedir. Söz konusu hayati önem, istihbarat bağlamında sahip olunan imkân ve kabiliyetlerin verimli, etkin ve olabildiğince hatasız kullanılması mecburiyetini beraberinde getirmektedir. Sonuç olarak, istihbaratın gözetimi hususu 1970’li yıllarda liberal demokrasiye sahip batılı ülkelerde gündeme gelmeye başlamıştır. İstihbarat çalışmaları alanında gözetimin önemi, kazanılan deneyimler sonucunda her geçen gün artmaya devam etmiştir. Söz konusu durum, 11 Eylül saldırıları sonucunda daha da belirginleşerek ilgili alan yazında başat çalışma konuları arasında yerini almaya başlamıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı kamusal bir hizmet olan istihbaratın hesap verebilirliğinin tesis edilmesinin en kapsamlı yöntemleri arasında yer alan gözetim kavramının teorik çerçevesinin tartışılarak incelenmesidir. Bu doğrultuda, çalışmada nitel araştırma yöntemlerinden faydalanılmış olup ilgili alan yazın taranmıştır.
Pretendemos efectuar uma reflexão crítica sobre os processos de planeamento – estratégico, operacional e táctico – em organizações terroristas jihadistas, tendo por referente o “catálogo” de tácticas, técnicas e procedimentos (TTP) de agências estatais – serviços de segurança e de inteligência –, designadamente quanto ao enquadramento das actividades de inteligência e contra-inteligência, e o seu papel, quer no planeamento, preparação e execução, com eficácia, de ataques terroristas, quer no processo de tomada de decisão terrorista. Este tipo de organizações revela grandes capacidades de aprendizagem e inovação – operacional e táctica –, mimetizando técnicas e procedimentos de agências estatais, aprendendo e evoluindo com elas, tornando mais
This chapter evaluates key findings of the study and suggests some considerations for the strengthening of police-patrol oversight. Outsourcing US intelligence dramatically increased after 9/11 because of the expertise and personnel gap in the IC after 9/11. The more the complexity, the range of tasks and the need for new technologies increased, the more money had to be spent on outsourcing intelligence and the number of PICs rose, hence the IC began to rely heavily on private actors. However, PICs overcame existing monitoring mechanisms through one or a combination of the following reasons: their close relationship with the IC or US military, the politicisation of intelligence by the executive principal, inadequate congressional oversight, weak administrative oversight, ambiguous contractual processes, partly regulatory capture of the tasks and the IC’s dependency on PICs. Further, when police-patrol oversight failed, by information asymmetry (moral hazard and adverse selection), PICs could violate legislative rules and goals by performing inherently governmental tasks, colluding with the IC to support the executive principal's policies, capturing control of the task, capturing control of the contractual process, waste and fraud and abuse. So the main argument of this chapter is that the greater the changes in the ICs’ use of PICs, the greater the problems faced by those responsible for oversight.
This chapter presents an analysis of the mismanagement of contractors over the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD) issue. In 2002, President Bush had accused Iraq of developing WMD and for its close ties with the perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks. Subsequently, Congress demanded a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq from the IC because of the increasingly belligerent tone of the White House. Although the Hill did not or could not verify the estimates in the October 2002 NIE, Congress voted for the resolution which gave the president authority to initiate a war against Iraq. Notably, the legislators chose to trust and depend on the IC’s assessments of Iraq’s nuclear programme, so congressional police-patrol oversight failed to detect the false evidence which had also been analysed by the contractors in the October 2002 NIE. After the end of major operations in Iraq, concerns about the existence of WMD were raised in Congress, leading to the SSCI investigating the IC’s arguments in the NIE. It was disclosed that the CIA had relied on the supposed independence and expertise of PICs to sow doubts about the conclusions of other agencies (INR, DOE, UN, IEAS) regarding the purpose of the tubes. In other words, to please the executive principal, the CIA had used contractors to provide evidence based on the desired results; as an agent, however, the Agency had misled other principals—Congress and the American public—about the purpose of the aluminium tubes. Nonetheless, the partisanship atmosphere among voters, the self-criticism of the media, and negligence in regard to the evaluations of international organisations did not lead to a detailed examination of the role of contractors in the notorious NIE. Since Congress held the CIA responsible for the flaws in the October 2002 NIE, contractors were able to stay out of the oversight of the Hill. Although executive investigations highlighted the contractors’ role particularly in the tests of the aluminium tubes, they did not recommend any sanctions against or regulations for the contractors. The politicisation of intelligence in the October 2002 NIE and the failure of the IC before the 9/11 attacks led to the creation of a new head of intelligence, the DNI: Congress established a new agent in the IC who was responsible for the whole of the IC, and punished the former agent by abolishing the DCI post. Although the new DNI created a new layer of bureaucracy and raised concerns about efficiency, the primary role of the CIA in the IC effectively came to an end.
This chapter discloses the waste and abuse by PICs in Abu Ghraib prison. After the 9/11 attacks, human intelligence gathered through the interrogation of suspects and captured terrorists became significant for the US military and intelligence agencies to find the perpetrators of the attacks. However, due to the overseas operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US Armed Forces and intelligence agencies were in dire need of expert personnel to provide translation and interrogation services because of the increasing number of detainees. To meet these language requirements, the US government raised spending on the outsourcing of these tasks and hired vast numbers of PICs. The employment of a large number of private contractors widened the scope of PICs’ tasks, and contractors were also delegated to carry out interrogation tasks, which were mainly assumed to be a governmental function. The Bush administration cleared the way for the implementation of harsh interrogation techniques against detainees, and immunised contractors from Iraqi laws through CPA orders. In addition, the weak administrative monitoring of contractors in the Abu Ghraib prison, the impact of PICs on the contractual process and oversight system, and the lack of congressional patrolling led to excessive discretion being devolved to private contractors. These factors clearly created ideal conditions for the perpetration of terrible abuse and torture in the prison. Because their ownership of the management of interrogation tasks enabled them to control the contractual process, contractors had partly captured the system in Abu Ghraib. Although third parties such as the media and civilian and international organisations reacted to the abuse and torture when it was revealed, reactions mainly centred around the severity of the torture and there were inadequate fire-alarms to demonstrate the wide-ranging role of contractors in the Abu Ghraib case. As a response to the fire-alarms, the executive principal tried to downplay the abuse as a failure to monitor a few “bad apples”, and extended the contracts of the responsible companies. Congress had to deal with a turf war over the delegation of contractors to perform interrogation tasks. Although some reforms were achieved by Congress in legal systems such as the extension of the MEJA and UCMJ rules, they were limited to the DOD’s overseas operations.
This chapter explores the intelligence mission in the US, considers the evolution of congressional and executive intelligence oversight mechanisms, including the legal bases of outsourcing intelligence from the Cold War to 9/11. For the outsourcing of intelligence before 9/11, both legislative and executive principals produced legal rules, policy letters and directives to regulate intelligence contracting and prevent the delegation of contractors to inherently governmental functions. However, there were significant loopholes in these rules which hampered their implementation. In addition, information asymmetry was evident for Congress due to the lack of information about the contracting inventories of the IC.
The brief history of intelligence oversight in the US from the Cold War has demonstrated that executive principals could exploit and mismanage the secret capabilities of the IC to achieve their hidden agendas. In the 1970s, Congress responded to the mismanagement of the IC and to intelligence scandals by establishing new rules and entities, particularly the SSCI and the HPSCI. Despite these landmark evolutions, new congressional control mechanisms could not prevent the subsequent Iran-Contra scandal. Furthermore, under the Reagan administration, congressional intelligence panels began to experience turf wars when the executive policies clashed with the policies of other groups on Capitol Hill. Eventually, regarding congressional oversight, the new monitoring rules and entities were not adequate to monitor the activities of the IC before 9/11.
During the Cold War, the IC hired contractors to increase its technological capacity against the Soviets. From military satellite projects to communication technologies, contractors supported intelligence agencies, but because of the narrow intelligence focus on the USSR, intelligence tasks were dominated by federal employees. By the end of Cold War, this trend began to evolve in favour of private actors and because of new operational requirements in several parts of the world, contractors were delegated to carry out intelligence tasks to fill the expertise gap. The executive principal’s policies for the downsizing of the federal workforce, including the IC, increased the need for the skills of private actors. In the 1990s, the US suffered several terrorist attacks around the world but these attacks did not stimulate US decision-makers to transform the IC to address these new security threats.
This chapter, Define Knowledge-Producing Role, is the first part of the organization-level activity to determine what kinds of knowledge should be produced by an intelligence organization. To answer this question, the chapter dives deep into two important underlying dynamics that, once addressed, can help determine which organization should produce what knowledge to protect climate security: (1) how close is the new knowledge requirement to an organization’s existing knowledge stock, and (2) what knowledge integration barriers exist between intelligence organizations and the academic community. Examples of situations are provided where the new knowledge requirement is close and distant. Closely related disciplines make it easier to produce new knowledge for a variety of reasons, while it is much more difficult with unrelated disciplines. Factors addressing knowledge integration are very different for the intelligence community and the academic/scientific community. The intelligence community is shaped by an ends-driven motivation based on what policymakers and decision-makers need or want, which is a focus on outcomes, purpose, and accountability. The academic/scientific community, on the other hand, is shaped by a means-driven motivation based on an emphasis on control, methodology, pursuit of factual knowledge, and an independence from immediate application.
This chapter, Boundaries of Knowledge, discusses knowledge boundaries. Knowledge boundaries determine the ease and feasibility of sharing knowledge between different groups of individuals. The concept of a knowledge boundary is fleshed out, and different types of knowledge boundaries are identified, which can range in complexity and in the ease or difficulty in understanding and sharing a common language and a common knowledge. Different techniques for navigating the types of knowledge boundaries are discussed, using examples that are drawn from practical intelligence community experiences. As a way to illustrate the difference between the academic and intelligence communities and allude to the communication challenges faced, examples of five climate-related and analytically related concepts are compared. The examples cover situations when definitions of a concept are the same but the meanings are different, when definitions of a concept are the same and the meanings are the same, when definitions are different but the meanings are the same, when definitions are different and the meanings are different, and when a comparison is not possible. The chapter concludes with implications for the two communities to reach common ground.
This chapter, Climate Security Intelligence, introduces climate security intelligence as a knowledge discipline created from the intersection of climate change and national security. Most who have written about climate security have done so from an outcome perspective, i.e., the negative actions or inactions that create instability, such as societal conflict, food insecurity, agricultural and water shortages, etc. The book’s contribution comes from a different perspective: from organizational and process lenses that are applicable to any organization having an intelligence function—whether governmental, public, or private—that possesses the responsibility of warning about and protecting climate security. Using this perspective, climate security intelligence is introduced. Discussed are what intelligence is and its definition, the early efforts of environmental intelligence and its subdiscipline of disaster intelligence, the definition of climate security intelligence, what the literature says about climate security intelligence, and the different nomenclature of climate security intelligence and climate intelligence. The relationship between climate change, climate security, and climate security intelligence is articulated. An initial theory of climate security intelligence is presented.
The chapter, Science and Intelligence, looks at the underlying knowledge-related concepts relevant to climate security intelligence from an intelligence community and a scientific perspective. The chapter begins with the distinction between knowledge and judgment, briefly addresses the difference between artificial (synthetic) knowledge and human judgment, and discusses the contribution of artificial intelligence and scenario simulations to climate security impacts. Second, the chapter discusses structural differences in collaboration between the intelligence community and the scientific community by examining knowledge disciplines and types of knowledge integration. Third, it explains the cultural differences between the two communities and how it affects climate security intelligence understanding and interactions.
This chapter, Develop Data Collection Strategies, begins by discussing the nexus between analysis and collection, that of conceptually modeling the threat. Two examples are provided, one from cybersecurity and one from climate security. The chapter then explores the four basic strategies for collecting data: classified (to include controlled unclassified), publicly available, commercially available, and non-publicly available. It assumes an organization knows what expertise it possesses, what and where knowledge is available, and what is not known or available before it can develop strategies for collecting data that would improve its common knowledge. Discussed under classified data are geospatial intelligence, signals intelligence, measurement and signature intelligence, human intelligence, and other emerging types such as cyber intelligence, social media intelligence, and big data. Discussed under data that are not classified but only used by the intelligence organization are open-source intelligence, non-publicly available information, and commercially available information only accessible by a government. Discussed under data that are not classified and accessible to anyone are publicly available information and commercially available information that anyone can purchase. The chapter concludes with implications for climate security intelligence using two examples, that of big data and human intelligence.
Civil Protection and Domestic Security in Contemporary Hybrid Warfare presents a comprehensive approach to civil protection and domestic security in contemporary hybrid armed conflict.
Hybrid warfare encompasses a number of dimensions such as military, political, psychological, cognitive, space, social, economic, informational, or technological. Current conflicts show that hybrid warfare, despite regional differences, is based on a common operational framework that combines conventional and unconventional tactics targeting not only military structures, but also largely targeting civilians (societies). All this makes threats more diffuse, subtle, and difficult to predict. They also often take the form of networked actions and have cascading effects in which they can produce complex secondary effects affecting a range of spheres of society and key infrastructure. In response to this spectrum of threats, individual states need to adapt their security and civil protection systems to the type of threat involved. However, most existing solutions are fragmented, resulting in a reduced ability to coordinate and adequately prepare civilians for hybrid threat conditions. Given these challenges, the book establishes a common language that helps shape coherent risk management and protective mechanisms in dealing with hybrid attacks. It also points in a new direction in ensuring the reliability of information provided to civilians, which is crucial in a hybrid war environment where disinformation is used as one of the main tools of destabilisation. Drawing on theoretical knowledge and practical experiences from around the world, the book provides tools to effectively respond to existing and future conflicts and hybrid wars. Above and beyond this, bridging the gap between concrete knowledge of hybrid warfare and operational needs, this book explores how public administrations, public services, NGOs, local communities, and other actors play a key role in protecting the population during such non-traditional armed conflicts.
Civil Protection and Domestic Security in Contemporary Hybrid Warfare is a vital resource to government and civilian specialists responsible for population security and protection, helping them and their civilian populations to strategise and, oftentimes, to individually mitigate the risk of loss of life or health—as has been demonstrated in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Introduction
1. Characteristics of Hybrid Warfare
2. Operations and Actors of Hybrid Warfare
3. Management of Critical Infrastructure Safety in the Context of Threats Hybrid Warfare
4. Identification and Analysis of Threats to the Civilian Population in Hybrid Warfare
5. Population Protection in Hybrid Warfare
6. Utilizing New Technologies for Population Protection in Hybrid Conflicts
7. The role of communities in Hybrid Wars
Conclusion
Appendix 1: Characteristics of the research methods used
Appendix 2: Results of analysis of media reports characterizing the war in Ukraine
Appendix 3: Glossary
Appendix 4: Interview questionnaire
B a c k g r o u n d . In the metter of critical infrastructure, it refers to the systems and assets that are essential for the functioning of modern society and the economy. These sectors include energy, transportation, elecommunications, healthcare, and water supply, all of which are crucial for national security and public well-being. Disruptions in these infrastructures can lead to decent amount of social and economic vital consequences. With the technologies happening to become more advanced, critical infrastructure security systems have become more complex and affiliated. Alterations in example being smart grids, automated transportation systems, and sophisticated communication networks have enhanced efficiency but also increased vulnerabilities. The convergence of digital and physical systems makes these sectors more exposed to risks like cyberattacks, natural disasters, terrorism, and other threats. This growing complexity emphasizes the need for governments and organizations to prioritize the protection of these vital infrastructures. M e t h o d s . In this research, we developed a mathematically rigorous approach to OSINT in the protection of critical infrastructure, improving on existing methods by providing a structured model for threat detection, vulnerability assessment, and risk calculation. The proposed method employs mathematical representations and probability functions, ensuring a more accurate analysis of threat information and vulnerability scoring. This advancement enables more precise mitigation strategies and better response coordination. While existing OSINT methods rely heavily on unstructured data collection and analysis, our approach introduces a mathematical foundation for data gathering and threat evaluation, providing several key improvements, such as Mathematical Representation of Data; Probabilistic Threat Detection and Vulnerability and Risk Assessment with Weighted Metrics. R e s u l t s . The study's findings underscore the value of a quantitative OSINT model in critical infrastructure security, demonstrating improvements in accuracy, speed, and decision-making. By reducing ambiguity through probabilistic risk assessments, the model minimizes unnecessary alerts and focuses on actionable threats. Scalability testing showed the model could handle large datasets effectively without overwhelming analysts. Finally, objective risk assessments were validated as enhancing decision-making processes, thus proving beneficial in real-time threat detection and mitigation. The model provides a solid foundation for continuously evolving OSINT practices and suggests potential for further optimization by minimizing risk and balancing mitigation efforts through a defined objective function. C o n c l u s i o n s . After all conducted analytical works, we could definitely say that this mathematical model demonstrates how OSINT can be systematically used to enhance the security of critical infrastructure by assessing vulnerabilities, detecting threats, calculating risk, and applying targeted mitigation strategies. It leverages data collection from open sources, threat analysis, and continuous feedback to ensure that infrastructure systems are resilient to evolving risks.
Este trabalho tem o objetivo de investigar como a fase de orientação do ciclo de inteligência é conduzida pelos Batalhões de Área da Polícia Militar do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte. Foram feitas entrevistas com comandantes de Batalhão e chefes das agências de inteligência, para se ter um panorama de como é feita a direção e o planejamento de inteligência voltados ao enfrentamento das facções prisionais. A atividade de Inteligência de Segurança Pública (ISP) é dotada de doutrina própria, na qual se indica que o processo de produção de conhecimento deve seguir um ciclo composto de três fases. A primeira dessas fases é a orientação, na qual se definem as diretrizes e o planejamento da atividade. Conclui-se que a fase de orientação é pautada, essencialmente, por demandas verbais pontuais sem vínculos com políticas de governo ou institucionais, bem como que não são utilizados planos de inteligência para delimitar o processo de produção de conhecimento sobre as organizações criminosas de base prisional atuantes nas áreas dos comandantes e chefes entrevistados.
Intelligence and counterintelligence (as activities) operate in a competitive environment, where they are crucial for gaining and maintaining a competitive advantage in decision-making processes. Intelligence involves the collection and analysis well as informing decision-makers. Counterintelligence, on the other hand, is focused on detecting and preventing the intelligence activities of adversaries. It is important to emphasize that intelligence activities are not intended to influence others but to provide decision-makers with timely and better insights than those available to their competitors. These activities are carried out at various levels and in different fields, differing in scale, capabilities, and limitations, but share the same goal – to achieve or maintain a competitive advantage in decision-making.
Este artigo explora a relação entre o Direito Administrativo, a formulação de Políticas Públicas e o Ciclo de Inteligência vis-à-vis a atuação da Agência Brasileira de Inteligência (Abin). O campo dos Estudos de Inteligência é recente e, no Brasil, a produção acadêmica é escassa na apresentação e compreensão da Atividade de Inteligência (AI) como parte funcional da burocracia estatal. Esse entendimento é relevante para promoção de práticas de governança e de controle da AI conforme mecanismos modernos do Direito Administrativo. Com base em análises teóricas e metodológicas, inspiradas na ótica do pensamento complexo, na transdisciplinaridade e no método dedutivo, argumenta-se que o Ciclo de Inteligência pode ser compreendido como um procedimento administrativo que auxilia a tomada de decisões públicas estratégicas. Ainda, o artigo apresenta hipótese sobre a natureza institucional das Operações de Inteligência. Para tanto, as fases do Ciclo de Inteligência são avaliadas em comparação a processos investigativos, como inquéritos policiais e civis, destacando a característica informacional e de assessoramento da Inteligência. Ademais, este estudo revisita bibliográfica especializada para avaliar os desafios relacionados à opacidade e accountability na AI. O artigo ressalta a importância da compreensão do Ciclo de Inteligência como procedimento administrativo e da necessidade de alinhamento desse e da Inteligência de Estado aos princípios do Direito Administrativo e à Teoria do Ciclo de Políticas Públicas, promovendo maior integração entre essas esferas e governança pública.
En el presente artículo se analizan las diferentes interrelaciones y rupturas entre la política curricular en educación básica y superior por compartir los marcos conceptuales, considerando las estrategias geopolíticas recientes en nuestro país, también se examinan como la política educativa plasmada del poder supremo del estado se concretiza en la política curricular, siguiendo la secuencia de enfoques, temáticas, habilidades y destrezas cada vez más finas desde la educación básica hasta el nivel de educación superior, generando transformaciones educativas para el bien o el mal, desde lo más sencillo hasta alturas incalculables y jamás sospechadas o para destruir genialidades humanas, en el que se refleja demostración del poder supremo de la ciudadanía o perdida de la capacidad ciudadanía y la disminución del talento humano y la forma como afecta a los ciudadanos en su conjunto, a los profesionales, instituciones, al desarrollo cultural, crecimiento económico, entre otras. Principalmente para realizar este estudio partimos de hechos históricos concretos demostrados atreves de la historia, de quienes tuvieron mentalidad geopolítica ganadora, conquistaron más de doscientos pueblos, triunfaron dictando catedra magistral en toda la cordillera andina, guerreros y líderes por excelencia, los Incas, preparados y formados para destacar en nuevas tierras conquistadas.
Indonesia is a country with a pluralistic society, consisting of various ethnicities, religions and other social groups. In various studies, pluralistic societies have socio-cultural threats in social conflict, insurgency/separatism and even disintegration. This is related to the activation of primordial sentiment as social solidarity in competition for limited resources, as well as structural problems such as injustice and inequality in development. This is in line with the shift in defense and security threats which do not only have a military dimension, but also non-military and hybrid ones. For this reason, a socio-cultural intelligence perspective is important in responding to the dynamics of this shifting threat. Because, as happened in Indonesia during the colonial period, post-New Order democratization, as well as more recently such as the Arab Spring phenomenon, as well as conflicts in northern Russia and Ukraine. So, the pluralism of society accompanied by structural problems is often exploited to create security instability in a country. The approach to citizenship and national defense through the Development of National Defense Awareness (PKBN) as a massive effort as a non-military defense strategy is important to maintain the diversity that exists in Indonesia. PKBN can build a strong Indonesian identity on top of a primordial identity to prevent politicization and exploitation which could lead to instability in Indonesia's security.
A vinculação da Agência Brasileira de Inteligência à Casa Civil da Presidência da República traz novos desafios e oportunidades para o órgão de Inteligência, especialmente quanto à profissionalização da atividade e ao desenvolvimento das carreiras de Inteligência. Nesse sentido, este artigo busca responder perguntas como: o que significa ser um “Profissional de Inteligência”? Quais tarefas um indivíduo deve ser capaz de desempenhar para se tornar um profissional na área? Como desenvolver as competências para isso? E como estruturar carreiras que possibilitem o pleno desenvolvimento de servidores e da ABIN? Revisitando a literatura afeta à temática de Inteligência e à de construção de carreiras, o artigo identifica os principais eixos de atuação profissional e propõe mudanças na arquitetura atual das carreiras.
Artykuł przedstawia kompleksową analizę i systematyczny przegląd narzędzi wyszukiwawczych stosowanych w wywiadzie jawnoźródłowym (open source intelligence, OSINT). Ewaluacji poddano trzy główne kategorie oprogramowania: systemy zintegrowane z systemem operacyjnym lub przeglądarką internetową, autonomiczne aplikacje oraz repozytoria odnośników do narzędzi specjalistycznych. Dokonano krytycznej ewaluacji reprezentatywnych egzemplifikacji z każdej kategorii, uwzględniając ich funkcjonalność, efektywność oraz ograniczenia. W toku analizy zidentyfikowano istotne luki w obecnym instrumentarium oraz sformułowano postulaty dotyczące potencjalnych kierunków rozwoju warsztatu operatora OSINT. Jako optymalny kierunek rozwoju wskazano otwarte, modularne narzędzia o niskim progu wejścia, pozwalające na aktywny udział społeczności w ich doskonaleniu i dostosowywaniu do indywidualnych potrzeb analityków. Przedstawione wyniki stanowią kompendium wiedzy dla naukowców, praktyków oraz entuzjastów OSINT.
Aim of the Study: The aim of this study is to analyze the oversight role of Pakistani News Media in relation to Intelligence Agencies of the country, during the Abbottabad Raid of 2 May 2011, an intelligence failure, while assessing applicability of normative model of Claudia Hillebrand in our local context. In new democracies like Pakistan, this effective watchdog role is a must yet ironically has become extremely difficult. After the GWOT this informal oversight of civil society, media being part of is the only hope, which must deliver, especially when formal oversight by the parliament or legislature has not been effective or existent. Methodology: This study conducted analysis of news reports of The Dawn, The News, The Express Tribune, and The Nation, in light of OBL hunt by US Special Forces. Due to the nature of high context culture of the country/media, the qualitative method of discourse analysis of Teun .A Van Dijk was used to analyze the media text, press reports or stories. Findings: The study results presented a dismal position of media in the enshrined role of oversight or monitoring. The deficiencies identified are of capacity, resources/expertise, will, and precedence. Conclusion: Security lapses and Intelligence Failures have been inevitable even to world powers, but their continued neglect can easily lead to National or Collective Failure, which all countries must try to avoid at all costs.
Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de Ulusal Güvenlik Hukuku ve Stratejisi alanında
uzmanlaşmış akademik programların kurulmasına duyulan ihtiyacı ve ulusal güvenlik
kanunu oluşturma gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır. Uluslararası hukuk, siber güvenlik,
terörle mücadele ve insan hakları gibi geniş bir konu yelpazesini kapsayan ve pratik
eğitime vurgu yapan kapsayıcı bir müfredatın geliştirilmesi önerilmektedir. Aynı
zamanda, demokratik ve uluslararası standartlara uyumlu, ulusal çıkar ve demokrasi
arasındaki dengeyi kuran bir ulusal güvenlik kanununun oluşturulması gerektiği
vurgulanmaktadır. Bu gereklilik, Türkiye'nin ulusal güvenlik alanındaki hukuki ve
stratejik uzmanlığını uluslararası norm ve standartlara uyumlu hale getirme ihtiyacından
kaynaklanmaktadır. Yöntem olarak, nitel karşılattırmalı analiz kullanılmıştır. Türkiye'nin
mevcut durumunu ve ulusal güvenlik hukuku alanında eğitim eksikliklerini eleştirel bir
şekilde değerlendirmek için belge analizi, karşılaştırmalı metin analizi ve vaka
çalışmaları kullanılmıştır. Litvanya'nın AB düzenlemelerine uyumu, Türkiye’nin AB
Hukukundan nasıl etkileneceğini incelemek amacıyla vaka analizi olarak seçilmiştir. Bu
yöntem, sosyopolitik, ekonomik ve jeopolitik hususları entegre eden kapsayıcı bir
yaklaşımın önemini vurgulamaktadır. Sonuç olarak, disiplinler arası bir eğitim
yaklaşımına ve ulusal güvenlik hukuku ve stratejisi alanında uzmanlaşmış programların
oluşturulmasına duyulan kritik ihtiyaç vurgulanmakta, kapsamlı bir eğitim revizyonu ve
ulusal güvenlik kanununun oluşturulması için öneriler sunulmaktadır
Contemporary security realities have deepened the need to widen the space in search of intelligence education and knowledge acquisition across the world. This has opened up new horizons as non-military universities have established intelligence and security studies all over the world. However, this raises the need to examine the issues of core competencies and expertise needed to produce global future leaders in intelligence management and practice. For a developing country like Nigeria, this remains an onerous task as this work seeks to evaluate the quest for intelligence education in Nigeria by Novena University and Afe Babalola University. It has been seriously noted that part of the competencies required for effective intelligence teaching require practical experiences because some believe that no matter your academic prowess in terms of research work, publications and professional trainings in the classroom, being on ground to acquire real life experiences that cannot be over emphasised. While the aforesaid assertion remains immutable this work shows the strengths and weaknesses in delivering intelligence education as they are tailored largely towards tradecraft. This lacuna stems largely from the dearth of adequate academics in this relatively new field and suffice to say that a generalist approach as it is now holds a glorious future for intelligence education in Nigeria.
The ongoing insurgency and banditry in northern Nigeria and the government's harsh attempts to put it down have resulted in a wave of refugees and internally displaced people. Increase in population density and the migration of displaced people into places that are thought to be relatively quiet are prominently causing significant security concerns. With particular reference to the city of Ilorin, this study investigates the role of internally displaced people and community concerns in connection to national security and their repercussions. The study showed that the state's failure to provide security and deal with residents' socioeconomic problems contributed to the instability that drove large population displacement. Losses of life, insecurity, population relocation, intolerance toward other ethnic and religious groups, the operation of the militant groups and most importantly economic disasters are the consequences of these unfavorable tendencies, as this article has discovered. The findings of this study shows that the government's response to the situation of internally displaced people in the nation has been patchy, with no long-term fix in sight. Additionally, the dilemma of internally displaced people severely impedes the region's growth. This paper consequently promotes the establishment of offices for these displaced people's representatives by including the affairs of internally displaced people at the local government level. As an option to dealing with the problem of internally displaced people in the nation, increasing funding for national security among residents would improve security in Ilorin metropolis.
Implementasi Big Data dan AI untuk meningkatkan kemampuan intelijen TNI mampu memberikan kontribusi signifikan dalam menghadapi tantangan keamanan yang semakin kompleks, dengan mengoptimalkan pengumpulan, analisis, dan interpretasi data untuk mendukung pengambilan keputusan strategis yang lebih efisien dan efektif. Permasalahan penelitian yaitu bagaimana strategi Implementasi Big Data dan AI untuk meningkatkan kemampuan intelijen TNI dalam menghadapi tantangan keamanan yang kompleks di era digital. Tujuan penelitian yaitu untuk menganalisis pengembangan infrastruktur Big Data yang efisien dan aman untuk TNI, penerapan teknik kecerdasan buatan dalam analisis intelijen, serta evaluasi kinerja sistem Big Data dan AI dalam mendukung pengambilan keputusan strategis TNI. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Pengembangan infrastruktur Big Data dan AI yang efisien dan aman untuk TNI sangat penting dalam memperkuat intelijen dan mendukung keputusan strategis, namun menghadapi tantangan integrasi, keamanan data, dan keterampilan personel, sehingga memerlukan investasi dalam teknologi canggih serta kolaborasi untuk mengoptimalkan pengelolaan data dan meningkatkan respons TNI. Kesimpulan Implementasi Big Data dan AI dapat memperkuat kapabilitas intelijen dan mendukung keputusan strategis di era digital untuk meningkatkan efisiensi dan efektivitas operasional dalam menghadapi ancaman nasional.
The management of national security by modern states across various climes has evolved through the ages. A salient and necessary ingredient that has emerged for and in the management of national security is the utilisation of intelligence.
With the rise of mediatization, open-source intelligence (OSINT) has evolved into a decentralized form of intelligence gathering, influenced by both political and commercial logic. This transformation has positioned social media as a primary source of OSINT, enhancing the capabilities of non-state actors and significantly impacting international politics, particularly in the realm of great-power competition. Through an analysis spanning individual, state, and systemic levels, this article examines OSINT’s role in shaping contemporary international politics. By exploring case studies such as the Russo-Ukrainian War, Israel-Hamas War, and strategic competition between China and the United States, this article illuminates how OSINT influences decision-making processes and global power struggles and contributes to a deeper understanding of the evolving landscape of intelligence and its implications for statecraft.
Resumen La corrupción, calidad de democracia y el crimen organizado son factores cuya interrelación afecta al crecimiento económico del Ecuador. En este estudio y desde la perspectiva de inteligencia estratégica, se busca comprender cómo estos elementos impactan en el gasto gubernamental y el crecimiento económico del país, relievando también el rol que el crimen organizado tiene en este contexto. La racionalización del gasto público es crucial para el crecimiento económico, pues la inversión estatal en infraestructura, educación y salud puede fomentar un desarrollo sostenible. Sin embargo, la efectividad de este gasto es condicionada por variables como la corrupción y la calidad de las instituciones democráticas; es así como, en un manejo no adecuado de estas, los fondos públicos suelen desviarse hacia actividades no productivas, así como el crecimiento del gasto corriente, provocando una desaceleración en el cumplimiento de las metas de crecimiento económico. En el Ecuador, el estudio realizado, mediante un análisis econométrico sobre la relación entre corrupción, democracia, crimen organizado y su impacto en el crecimiento económico durante el período 2000-2022, evidencia que la corrupción y la mala gestión del gasto inciden negativamente en el crecimiento económico. En este contexto, la democracia puede actuar como un contrapeso a la corrupción. Sin embargo, en Ecuador, se encuentran debilitadas las instituciones democráticas y a esto se suma la espiral de violencia e inestabilidad provocada por el crimen organizado, lo que afecta a la inversión y crecimiento económico.
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