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Conflict and Cooperation Within International River Basins: The Importance of Institutional Capacity



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Aaron T. Wolf, Kerstin Stahl, and Marcia F. Macomber
Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon
There are 263 watersheds that cross the political
boundaries of two or more countries. These
international basins cover 45.3 percent of the land
surface of the earth, affect about 40 percent of the
world’s population, and account for approximately 60
percent of global river flow (Wolf et. al 1999). Recent
studies that focus on the conflict potential of
international water stress the dangers of violence over
water resources (see, for example, Gleick, 1993;
Homer-Dixon, 1994; Remans, 1995; and Samson and
Charrier, 1997), while others call attention to the
possibilities and historic evidence of cooperation
between co-riparians (see Libiszewski, 1995; Wolf,
1998; and Salman and de Chazournes, 1998). The
fortunate corollary of water as an inducement to
conflict is that water provides an incentive for hostile
co-riparians to cooperate, even as disputes are waged
over other issues.
Conflicts between riparian nations regarding economic
development, infrastructural capacity, or political
orientation complicate water resources development,
institutions, and management. As a result,
development, treaties, and institutions are regularly
seen as inefficient or ineffective, and, occasionally, as a
new source of tensions themselves. Despite the
tensions inherent in the international setting, riparians
have shown tremendous creativity in approaching
regional development, often through preventive
diplomacy, and the creation of positive-sum,
integrative allocations of joint gains. Just in the last 50
years, 157 treaties have been negotiated and signed,
marking the initiation of institutional agreements
between riparian nations to cooperate and to mitigate
future conflicts over their shared water sources.
Supporting and nurturing the development of both
existing and future international river basin institutions
will be a key ingredient to meeting the goals of human
security and sustainable development around the world.
This paper outlines the initial findings of a study
conducted by the Basins at Risk (BAR) team at Oregon
State University that quantitatively examines the
history of international water relations and the
geographical and political setting in which that
spectrum of interactions has evolved. With both
physical and social variables in one database, linked by
basin, hypotheses of indicators of conflict are explored,
suggesting the centrality of institutions in ameliorating
water disputes. On the climate side, analyses
demonstrate that historically, extreme events of conflict
were more frequent in marginal climates with highly
variable hydrologic conditions, while the riparians of
rivers with less extreme natural conditions have been
more moderate in their conflict/cooperation
relationship. These findings are then followed by
recommendations regarding the role that universities
can play to aid the international community and
riparian nations in building effective institutions to
manage shared water resources.
Over the past nine years, a research group at the
Oregon State University Department of Geosciences, in
collaboration with the Northwest Alliance for
Computational Science and Engineering, has been
developing the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute
Database (TFDD)
to aid in the assessment of the
process of water conflict resolution. The TFDD is a
collection of searchable and linked international waters
databases (text and digital) including:
An events database containing a comprehensive
news file of 1,831 reported cases of international
water related disputes and dispute resolution (1950-
A treaties database containing over 400 water-related
treaties, along with the full text of each;
An annotated bibliography of the state of the art of
water conflict resolution, including approximately
1,000 entries;
A collection of negotiating notes (primary or
secondary) from fourteen detailed case-studies of
water conflict resolution;
Descriptions of indigenous/traditional methods of
water dispute resolution; and
An international waters Geographic Information
System containing digital thematic maps of the
world’s 263 international watersheds including
climate type, population density, population living
with water stress, etc.
As critical data are collected within a unified format,
analysis that assesses both physical and social variables
within the same context becomes possible. The Basins
at Risk (BAR)
project is an ongoing and evolving
multi-investigator research initiative that draws from
the resources of TFDD, and that aims to systematically
assess the process of international water conflict
resolution, in order to:
1. Collect and analyze biophysical, socio-
economic, and geopolitical data in a Geographic
Information System, and use these factors to
determine historically based indicators for future
tensions within international basins;
2. Identify basins that are at risk of conflict for the
coming decade using indicators determined in
the initial investigation; and
3. Identify and assess the potential for mitigating
factors and new technologies that may allow for
a future different than that predicted by
historically based indicators.
Using the TFDD, Wolf, Yoffe, and Giordano (2003)
attempted to identify the indicators of settings with a
high potential for water disputes. By examining the
biophysical, geopolitical, and socioeconomic setting of
each historical incident of water conflict and
cooperation, they assessed factors contributing to water
conflict. Then, based on the correlation of each event to
its setting, they made a preliminary identification of
international basins that are at the greatest risk for
conflicts of interest and, possibly, tensions in the near
The working hypothesis of the study was as follows:
The likelihood and intensity of conflict rises as
the rate of change within the basin exceeds the
institutional capacity to absorb that change.
This points to two critical components of the dispute
setting – the rate of change in the system, and the
institutional capacity. Internationalization (the break-up
of a basin into more than one country) or large
development projects such as the building of a major
dam are examples of incidents that represent high rates
of change in a basin. The likelihood of dispute over
such changes rises with low institutional capacity – for
example, when there is no treaty or other regional
agreement, or when relations are tenuous over other
issues. It is hoped that with the results of this BAR
study, the appropriate international agencies might be
able to focus preventive diplomacy efforts in basins
that appear to be at risk of future conflict, so that
conflict might be averted.
Studies on the history of international water conflict
have taken a largely anecdotal approach. In order to
contribute a more systematic approach to the literature,
the BAR project attempted to compile a dataset of
every reported interaction between two or more
nations, whether conflictive or cooperative, which
involved water as a scarce and/or consumable resource
or as a quantity to be managed
from 1950-2000. In
order to evaluate the intensity of interactions, either
cooperative or conflictive, a scoring system
developed, which assigned BAR intensity values from
-7 (indicating the highest level of conflict, i.e. war) to
+7 (indicating the highest level of cooperation, i.e.
voluntary merging of countries) to each event. The
study documents a total of 1,831 interactions, both
conflictive and cooperative, between two or more
nations over water during those 50 years, and found
several interesting results.
First, the number of historical incidents of cooperation
over international water resources outnumbers those of
conflict in a greater than two to one ratio (Figure 1). Of
all 1,831 events delineated, 1,228 were found to be
cooperative, while only 507 were conflictive.
Additionally, the BAR study found that most events are
mild; 42.8 percent of events fell between mild verbal
support (+1) and mild verbal hostility (-1) on the BAR
scale. Only 37 cases of acute conflict, in which
violence takes place (-5 to -6 on BAR scale), were
identified, and these events were not recent or
widespread. In the same time period, 157 treaties were
negotiated and signed.
Second, water plays a role as both an irritant and a
unifier of riparian nations. Despite markedly little
violence over water resources, water can act to degrade
relations between countries. This has been seen in
relations between India and Pakistan, Israel and Jordan,
and Canada and the United States. However, history
shows that disputes over water between riparians can
be resolved, even as conflict over other issues ensues.
The Mekong Committee has existed since 1957,
providing a flow of information regarding water
resources even throughout the Vietnam War.
Furthermore, even in areas where water has acted as an
irritant, unifying efforts have sustained through periods
of particularly difficult relations between countries.
Third, nations cooperate over a broad spectrum of
issues, as shown in Figure 2. Joint management, water
quantity, water quality, infrastructure, hydropower, and
economic development are all issues that have induced
cooperation in a significant number of events.
However, examination of conflictive events reveals
that 86% of all conflictive events have to do with only
two issues – water quantity or infrastructure. Moreover,
of the most extreme cases of conflict, those ranking -6
or -7 on the BAR scale, nearly 100% fall into one of
these two issue categories.
Institutions play a key role in preventing and mitigating
conflict. Changes within basins can lead to conflict if
institutions are not in place. To avoid the political
intricacies of shared water resources, for example, a
riparian, generally the regional power,
may implement
a project that impacts at least one of its neighbors. This
might be to continue to meet existing uses in the face
of decreasing relative water availability – as for
example Egypt's plans for a high dam on the Nile or
Indian diversions of the Ganges to protect the port of
Calcutta – or to meet new needs and associated policies
such as Turkey's GAP project on the Euphrates. When
projects such as these proceed without regional
collaboration, they can become a flashpoint,
heightening tensions and regional instability, and
requiring years or, more commonly, decades to resolve.
Evidence of how institutions can diffuse tensions is
seen in basins with large numbers of water
infrastructure projects. Co-riparian relations have
shown to be significantly more cooperative in basins
with treaties and high dam density than in similarly
developed basins without treaties. Thus, institutional
capacity together with shared interests and human
creativity seem to diffuse water's conflict-inducing
characteristics, suggesting that an important lesson of
international water is that as a resource it tends to
induce cooperation, and incite violence only in the
Figure 1. Number of events by BAR scale.
Figure 2. Spectrum of issue types in events database.
The BAR study (Wolf, Yoffe, and Giordano, 2003;
Yoffe et al., forthcoming) found that most of the
parameters commonly identified as indicators of
conflict (i.e., climate, water stress, dependence on
hydropower, dams or development per se, or level of
development) are actually only weakly linked to
dispute. Instead, the study suggests that institutional
capacity within a basin, whether defined as water
management bodies or treaties, or generally positive
international relations are as important, if not more so,
than the physical aspects of a system. In accordance
with the working hypothesis of the study, it was found
that when the rate of change within a basin exceeds the
institutional capacity to absorb change, we are likely to
find tensions.
The most rapid changes institutionally are associated
with internationalized basins – basins whose
management institution was developed under a single
jurisdiction, but which was made obsolete as that
jurisdiction suddenly became divided among two or
more nations. The most rapid physical change is
typically the development of a large-scale dam or
diversion project, but in this case, too, the institutional
capacity makes a difference. In other words, high
levels of animosity and/or the absence of a
transboundary institution can exacerbate the setting,
while positive international relations and/or the
presence of transboundary institutions can mitigate the
negative effects of such projects.
By using the parameters of rapid change and
institutional capacity, the BAR study identified basins
that may be at risk for conflicts over water in the near
future. Basins that are becoming internationalized or
have major planned development projects and/or do not
have an institution in place to handle such changes
were deemed at risk. These basins include the Ganges-
Brahmaputra, Han, Incomati, Kunene, Kura-Araks,
Lake Chad, La Plata, Lempa, Limpopo, Mekong, Ob
(Ertis), Okavango, Orange, Salween, Senegal, Tumen,
and Zambezi. It should be noted that “basins at risk” is
a fluid concept, with the actual basins changing
constantly. Many of the basins originally named in the
study currently have processes of conflict mitigation in
progress, reducing the “risk” substantially.
Nevertheless, these indicators allow us to monitor for
“red flags,” or markers that may suggest new basins at
risk as they arise, among them tenders for future
projects and nations with active nationalist movements.
Subsequent Research on the Role of Climate that
Highlights the Importance of Scale:
Ongoing research is being carried out to look more
closely at the role that climate might play in conflict
over international waters. The initial findings of the
BAR study found no significant difference between
most climate types and the likelihood of disputes.
However, the BAR analysis utilized the international
river basin as the primary spatial unit of analysis, and
conflict levels for the basins were defined by averaging
BAR intensity values of all events (cooperative or
conflictive) within the period of the study. Different
climatic regimes within the boundaries of basins and
temporal changes in water availability may play an
important role, which can only be identified in an
examination of the systems at a finer scale than that
utilized in the Wolf, Yoffe, and Giordano (2003) study.
This subsequent research looks at the role of scale,
both temporal and spatial, in international water
relations, using climate as a variable.
As with BAR, the geographic unit defined in this
subsequent study is the basin-country-polygon (BCP).
The BCP is a portion of an individual country within
an international river basin that experiences a self-
similar climate. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) 0.5
degree monthly mean precipitation (New et al., 2000),
the Tateishi Potential Evapotranspiration and Water
Balance (Ahn & Tateishi, 1994) and at-station
discharge data from the Global Runoff Data Center
(GRDC) were used to derive four hydro-climatic
parameters including 1) aridity, 2) inter-annual
variability of precipitation, 3) inter-annual variability
of discharge, and 4) river type within each BCP.
Aridity indices (I) (mean annual precipitation divided
by the mean annual potential evapotranspiration)
described BCP conditions falling within one of three
classes – I<0.2 (arid), I<0.5 (semi-arid), 0.5<I<1.33
(sub-humid) and I>1.33 (humid).
New indices and the relative frequency distributions of
events (cooperative/conflictive) are being used to test
the following hypothesis:
The intensity of conflict or cooperation (indicated by
BAR scale values) for BCP’s characterized by
particular hydro-climatic conditions (classes of
aridity, inter-annual variability of precipitation, inter-
annual variability of discharge, and river type) is no
different from any randomly chosen subset of BCP’s
of the same size.
The test was carried out for the134 BCP’s that had five
and more political events of conflict and cooperation
(Figure 3).
Preliminary Results:
As shown in Figure 4, the average BAR intensity scale
per BCP shows no relationship between
conflict/cooperation level and hydro-climatic
conditions, confirming the BAR project results of
Wolf, Yoffe, and Giordano (2003). A new approach,
which concentrates on the frequency of the political
events of a particular intensity (both positive and
negative), however, shows that there are differences
between the four aridity index subsets.
The observed relative frequency for a certain BAR
scale level is expressed as an exceedance probability
compared to the 10,000 random sample replications.
The graph shows that in arid, and even more
pronounced in semi-arid regions, the relative
frequencies of the most conflictive events are
significantly higher compared to what one can expect
from random samples, while they are low for neutral to
slightly cooperative events. In arid regions, however,
there is also a high probability for the most cooperative
events. In sub-humid and humid regions, the relative
frequencies of the most conflictive events are
comparatively low. The other three hydroclimatic
parameters show similar results.
These preliminary results suggest that extreme
conflicts, but also extreme cooperation, are relatively
frequent in regions with extreme conditions
characterized by high inter-annual hydrologic
variability. The high frequency of events on both sides
of the conflict-cooperation intensity scale, however,
makes the basin appear moderate when averaging the
scale of all events (as done in the BAR study described
earlier), thus concealing a more complex relationship
with geographic indicators.
International Basins
Number of political events
per basin-country-polygon
Figure 3. Number of reported political events in the basin-country-polygons.
If there is an extreme-extreme relationship between
hydroclimatic conditions and political events of
conflict and cooperation, it can also be expected to be
present in the context of the time of occurrence of
natural and political events. Figure 5 shows a
composite time series of hydroclimatic variables and
events of conflict and cooperation over the Senegal
River, which is shared by four countries. Droughts
and desertification have affected the Sahel region in
the past decades, and it is clearly an exceptional
example of political tensions following the climatic
trend. However, it illustrates the importance of the
time context. In several water-scarce regions, treaties
have been signed during a series of wet years or
before major development projects. When water
stress later rises during a series of dry years, tensions
between the riparians of a shared river become likely.
The analyses demonstrate that historically, extreme
events of conflict were more frequent in marginal
climates with highly variable hydrologic conditions,
while the riparians of rivers with less extreme natural
conditions have been more moderate in their
conflict/cooperation relationship. The climate is a
dynamic system with large fluctuations that under
current climate change scenarios are expected to
become even larger in many regions. The entire
causal relationship between hydroclimatology and
water-related political relations, however, is certainly
complex and strongly dependent on socio-economic
conditions and institutional capacity as well as the
timing and occurrence of changes and extremes in a
country and basin.
Three characteristics of international waters – the fact
that conflict is invariably sub-acute, that tensions can be
averted when institutions are established early, and that
these institutions are tremendously resilient over time –
suggest that water dispute amelioration is as important,
more effective, and less costly, than conflict resolution.
The choice for the international community in regards to
international water conflict is one between a traditional
chronology of events, where unilateral development is
followed by a crisis and, possibly, a lengthy and
expensive process of conflict resolution on the one hand,
or, on the other, a process where riparians are
encouraged to get ahead of the crisis curve through
information sharing, preventive diplomacy, and
institutional capacity-building.
Water professionals are generally not trained to deal with
the nuances particular to international water institutions.
Water managers generally understand and advocate the
inherent powers of the concept of a watershed as a unit
of management, where the quality and quantity of
ground- and surface-water are inexorably connected.
However, the institutions that have developed to manage
the resource have historically followed these tenets only
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Index of Aridity
Average BAR Intensity Scale 1948-90
significant <-> non-significant <-> significant
Exceedannce Probability (%)
Relative frequency of political events in BCPs with the
following Index of Aridity:
arid (0.01-0.2) n=12 semi-arid (0.2-0.5) n=23
sub-humid (0.5-1.33) n=63 humid (>1.34) n=36
Figure 4. Relationship between hydro-climatic conditions and conflict-cooperation level of political events in the
basin-country polygons. a) Average BAR intensity versus index of aridity. b) Exceedance probability of observed
frequency for a certain conflict-cooperation level.
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
no. in thousand
Source: OFDA/CRED Disaster Database
no. people affected by drought
no. people affected by flood
<-conflict coop->
Source: BAR project/TFDD
Event level on conflict-cooperation scale
discharge (m3/s)
Source: GRDC
Bakel (Lower Senegal where river = border Senegal-Mauritania)
Kayes (in Mali upstream of border to SEN&MRT)
Source: CRU
Guinea Mauritania
Mali Senegal
precipitation anomaly
(year in mm)
Figure 5. Time-series of events of conflict and cooperation, precipitation anomaly, annual mean discharge and the
occurrence of natural disasters in the Senegal River basin.
in the exception. One obstacle to integrated watershed
management is the persistence of disparate worldviews
and jargon among professionals, be they engineers,
agronomists, hydrologists, public health officials,
political scientists, or sociologists. Water professionals
are educated in separate colleges, and then employed
by separate agencies, despite their common medium;
people trained in either science or policy tend to treat
the frameworks of the “other” side as a “black box.”
Additionally, the need for supra-national appreciation
of political, social, and cultural aspects of water in
handling international water issues complicates their
International waters management has many
stakeholders, including international development
banks, development agencies, the private sector,
government ministries, provinces, municipalities, civil
society, and the environment. Each has their own
appropriate role in contributing to the development of a
global water governance culture that incorporates
regional peace, environmental protection, and human
security. Throughout the course of developing the
Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database and
studying the indicators of conflict over international
water, our group looked closely at the potential role of
universities in contributing to this pursuit. Universities
and research agencies can best contribute by continuing
to provide the services they have always provided
Acquiring, analyzing, and coordinating primary data
necessary for empirical analysis of the social,
political, and biophysical settings of watersheds;
Researching and publishing on issues at the forefront
of current needs in the field of international waters;
Training tomorrow’s water managers.
In response to the identification of institutional
capacity as a key factor in inducing cooperation in
international water issues, the Universities Partnership
for Transboundary Waters was founded by Oregon
State University in May 2002 as an attempt to provide
these services in order to help existing and future
international water institutions get ahead of the conflict
curve. Each of the five continents represented in the
Partnership includes two universities, each with strong
existing water resources programs – one with a
technical focus and one with a policy orientation.
Participating institutions include the University of
Zimbabwe, the University of Pretoria, the Asian
Institute of Technology, Yunnan University, Linköping
University, the University of Dundee, Universidad
Nacional de Litoral de Argentina, Universidad
Nacional de Costa Rica, Oregon State University, and
the University of New Mexico.
The Partnership’s programs are designed to meet the
unique needs of international river basin stakeholders,
practitioners, and officials, by working with them to
develop appropriate and innovative “hydrodiplomatic”
resources. The Partnership’s programs are as follows:
Education &Training: Courses and curriculum that
explicitly integrate technical and policy skills are
presented in a problem solving, interactive format.
This program builds common dialogue among future
decision-makers from disparate fields, countries, and
cultures, supplementing their existing knowledge
with applied management skills embracing equity,
cooperation, sustainability, and consensus.
Outreach & Information Resources: Access to data
and effective decision-making tools have been
regularly named as critical to building trust,
communication, and a medium for negotiations, as
an international network. The Universities
Partnership can consolidate, coordinate, and make
compatible information helpful to both students,
researchers, negotiators and practitioners.
Coordinated Applied Research: Reality driven,
implementation-oriented collaborative studies are
conducted on trans-boundary water at multiple
scales, within a variety to cultural and environmental
The “partnership” concept inferred by the
establishment of the Universities Partnership for Trans-
boundary Waters extends beyond the confines of the
ten founding member universities. It includes the
network of transboundary waters professionals from all
sectors (academic, policy and practioner) within and
between each of the five geographic regions
represented – North and Latin America, Southern
Africa, Western Europe, and Southeast Asia. The goal
is to position these institutions in a way that they can
serve as an effective bridge between education, policy,
and practice. With practitioners providing a real-world
context to research, each of the programs emphasizes
multidirectional learning and development of
information sources and education for the next
generation of hydrodiplomats. The type of off-the-
record dialogue that can occur at universities is
bolstered by their institutional nature, not constrained
by project-to-project funding or scope. The
continuation of this partnership through time will
contribute to the growth of the institutional base that is
necessary to 1) chart the development of new methods
and paradigms for formulating water agreements, 2)
develop technologies to aid in decision-making, and 3)
tackle issues of contention such as globalization and
climate change. This type of institutional base could
effectively change the theater of traditional
negotiations, but will only be useful to the needs of the
future if they can be made amenable to the needs of
their constituents.
A draft of this paper was presented to the annual
meeting of the International Studies Association,
Portland, Oregon, 25 February – 2 March 2003. The
authors are indebted to Kristin Anderson for her editing
This section is drawn from (1) Wolf, A.T. (2002)
International Water Conflict and Cooperation: A
Survey of the Past; Reflections on the Future
prepared for the UNESCO/Green Cross International
program: From Potential Conflict to Cooperation
Potential: Water for Peace, in collaboration with the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
and from (2) Wolf et al. (2003) International Waters:
Identifying Basins At Risk. Water Policy. 2003.
Online at:
See Yoffe (2002) for complete details of the
methodology and initial findings of BAR.
This section draws from Wolf, A.T. (2002)
International Water Conflict and Cooperation: A
Survey of the Past; Reflections on the Future
prepared for the UNESCO/Green Cross International
program: From Potential Conflict to Cooperation
Potential: Water for Peace, in collaboration with the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
and from (2) Wolf et al. (2003) International Waters:
Identifying Basins At Risk. Water Policy. 2003. See
also Yoffe et al. (forthcoming) for more detailed
Excluded are events where water is incidental to the
dispute, such as those concerning fishing rights,
access to ports, transportation, or river boundaries.
Also excluded are events where water is not the
driver, such as those where water is a tool, target, or
victim of armed conflict.
For more details of how the event data were
compiled, structured, and assessed, see Shira Yoffe
and Kelli Larson’s, “Basins at Risk: Event Data
Methodology and Findings,”
The only “water war” between nations on record
occurred over 4,500 years ago, between the city-
states of Lagash and Umma in the Tigris-Euphrates
basin (Wolf 1998).
“Power” in regional hydropolitics can include
riparian position, with an upstream riparian having
more relative strength vis a vis the water resources
than its downstream riparian, in addition to the more-
conventional measures of military, political, and
economic strength. Nevertheless, when a project is
implemented that impacts one's neighbors, it is
generally undertaken by the regional power, as
defined by traditional terms, regardless of its
riparian position.
This section is drawn from research currently being
conducted by Kerstin Stahl at Oregon State
Aaron T. Wolf is an associate professor of geography in
the Department of Geosciences at Oregon State
University. His research focus is on the interaction
between water science and water policy, particularly as
related to conflict prevention and resolution. He is
author of Hydropolitics Along the Jordan River: The
Impact of Scarce Water Resources on the Arab-Israeli
Conflict, (United Nations University Press, 1995), a co-
author of Core and Periphery: A Comprehensive
Approach to Middle Eastern Water, (Oxford University
Press, 1997), and editor of Conflict Prevention and
Resolution in Water Systems, (Cheltenham, UK: Elgar,
2002). Wolf coordinates the Transboundary Freshwater
Dispute Database, an electronic compendium of case
studies of water conflicts and conflict resolution,
international treaties, national compacts, and
indigenous methods of water dispute resolution
(, and is a co-
director of the Universities Partnership on
Transboundary Waters.
Kerstin Stahl is a postdoctoral research fellow (German
Research Foundation, DFG) at the Department of
Geosciences at Oregon State University. Her research
focuses on the influence of hydrologic conditions and
hydroclimatic variability on water-related political
conflict and cooperation in international river basins.
She has also worked on different aspects of hydrologic
drought and has a PhD in Hydrology from the
University of Freiburg in Germany.
New, M. G., M. Hulme, and P.D. Jones, 2000.
Representing Twentieth-Century Space-Time Climate
Variability. Part II: Development of 1901-1996
Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate, Journal
of Climate, 13: 2217-2238.
Marcia Fraser Macomber is the Director of Program
Development for the Universities Partnership for
Transboundary Waters. She served as an International
Development Associate with the University of
Michigan Population, Environmental Change, and
Security (PECS) Initiative, and worked on international
transboundary environmental issues with the U.S.
Embassy’s Regional Environmental Hub in Amman,
Jordan as well as in Tijuana, Mexico on a 2001
binational workshop entitled The Future of the U.S.
Mexico Border: Population, Development and Water.
She holds a B.S. in Biology from San Francisco State
University, San Francisco, California and a MS in
Resource Geography with a minor in Fisheries Science
from Oregon State University.
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... Conflict and cooperation phenomena in transboundary water resources have been widely investigated in different contexts. Studies include those focused on resolving conflicts (e.g., Madani et al., 2014;Rogers, 1969;Zarezadeh et al., 2012), analyzing conflict and cooperation (e.g., Mirumachi & Van Wyk, 2010;Wolf, 2007;Wolf et al., 2003), and investigating influential factors in conflict and cooperation (e.g., Dinar et al., 2010;Zeitoun et al., 2011). A question in socio-hydrology research arises about why conflict and cooperation dynamics emerge in a sociohydrological system and how these dynamics evolve over time . ...
... Managing transboundary rivers is a complex issue as riparian countries with different socio-economic statuses and interests share water resources; their decisions about water affect other countries. The contested use of these shared water resources can lead to fierce disputes and even water wars (Wolf et al., 2003;Zeitoun & Mirumachi, 2008). ...
... Conflict and cooperation (C&C) in transboundary water resources have been widely investigated in different contexts. Studies include those focused on resolving conflicts (e.g., Madani et al., 2014;Rogers, 1969;Zarezadeh et al., 2012), analyzing C&C (e.g., Mirumachi & Van Wyk, 2010;Wolf, 2007;Wolf et al., 2003), and investigating influential factors in C&C (e.g., Dinar et al., 2010;Zeitoun et al., 2011). However, most previous studies on transboundary rivers have treated C&C as scenarios (i.e., external variables of an underlying system): investigating how C&C as boundary conditions influence the water resources and socio-economic conditions of riparian countries. ...
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For decades, the interaction between water and people has attracted hydrologists’ attention. However, the coevolution of social and natural processes, which occurs across a range of time scales, has not yet been adequately characterized. This research gap has motivated more research in recent years under the umbrella of “socio-hydrology”. The purpose of socio-hydrology is to posit the endogeneity of humans in a hydrological system and then to investigate feedback mechanisms between hydrological and human systems that might lead to emergent phenomena. The current state-of-the-art in socio-hydrology faces several challenges that include (1) a tenuous connection of socio-hydrology to broader research on social, economic, and policy aspects of water resources, (2) the (in)capability of socio-hydrological models to capture human behavior by generic feedback mechanisms that can be extrapolated to other places, and (3) unsatisfying calibration or validation processes in modeling. To address the first gap, a socio-hydrology study needs to connect proper social theories on water-related human decision making with a water resource model based on a given context and scale. Addressing the second gap calls for socio-hydrology research with case studies in different and contrasting regions and at different scales. In fact, such study can shed light on the similarities and differences in socio-hydrological systems in different contexts and scales as initial steps for future research. The third research gap calls for a socio-hydrology study that improves calibration and validation processes. Thus, to address all these gaps in one thesis, two case studies with completely different environments are chosen to investigate various phenomena at different scales. The research presented here contributes to socio-hydrological understanding at two spatial scales. To account for the heterogeneity of human decision making and its interactions with the hydrologic system, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is used in this research. The first objective is to explore human adaptation to drought as well as the subsequent expected or unexpected effects on the agricultural sector and to develop a socio-hydrological model to predict agricultural water demand. To do so, an agent-based agricultural water demand model (ABAD) is developed. This model is applied to the Bow River Basin in Alberta, Canada, as a study region, which has recently experienced drought periods. The second objective is to explore conflict-and-cooperation processes in transboundary rivers as socio-hydrological phenomena at a large scale. The Eastern Nile Basin Socio-hydrological (ENSH) model is developed and applied to the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) in Africa in which conflict-and-cooperation dynamics can be seen among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The ENSH model aims to quantify and simulate these countries’ willingness to cooperate in the ENB. ABAD demonstrates (1) how farmers’ attitudes toward profits, risk aversion, environmental protection, social interaction, and irrigation expansion explain the dynamics of the water demand and (2) how the conservation program may paradoxically lead to the rebound phenomenon whereby the water demand may increase after decreasing through modernized irrigation systems. Through the ABAD model analysis, economic factors are found to dominantly control possible rebounds. Based on the insights gained via the model analysis, it is discussed that several strategies, including community participation and water restrictions, can be adopted to avoid the rebound phenomenon in irrigation systems. Fostering farmers’ awareness about the average water use in their community could be a means to avoid the rebound phenomenon through community participation. Also, another strategy to avoid the rebound phenomenon could be to reassign water allocations to reduce farmers’ water rights. The ENSH model showed that (1) socio-political factors (i.e., relative political stability and foreign direct investment) can explain two historical trends (i.e., (a) fluctuations in Ethiopia’s willingness to cooperate between 1983 and 2009 and (b) a decreasing Ethiopia’s willingness to cooperate between 2009 and 2016); (2) the 2008 food crisis (i.e., Sudan’s food gap) may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate; and (3) Egypt’s political (in)stability plays a role in its willingness to cooperate. The outcomes of this research can provide valuable insights to support policymakers for the long-term sustainability of water planning. This research investigates two main socio-hydrological phenomena at different spatial scales: the agricultural rebound phenomenon at a small geographical scale and the conflict and cooperation phenomena at a large geographical scale. The emergence of these phenomena can be a complex resultant of interaction and feedback mechanisms between the social system at the individual, institutional, and society levels and the hydrological system. Through developing quantitative socio-hydrological models, this research investigates the feedback mechanisms that may lead to the rebound phenomenon at a small scale and the conflict and cooperation phenomenon at a large scale. Finally, the research shows how these socio-hydrological models can be used for sustainable water management to avoid negative long-term consequences.
... Managing transboundary rivers is a complex issue as riparian countries with different socio-economic statuses and interests share water resources. The contested use of these shared water resources can lead to water conflicts (i.e., a dispute between countries over the rights to water resources) or cooperative agreements (i.e., the peaceful management and use of water resources by the various riparian countries) (Wolf et al., 2003;Zeitoun and Mirumachi, 2008). An important issue in managing transboundary water resources is to explain why conflict and cooperation (C & C) emerge in a transboundary river and investigate their potential feedback mechanism. ...
... The transboundary rivers have been receiving significant attention in many studies (e.g., Elhance, 1999;Kilgour and Dinar, 2001;Wolf, 2007). The literature of transboundary rivers has generally focused on pathways towards resolving conflicts (e.g., Madani et al., 2014;Rogers, 1969;Zarezadeh et al., 2012), analyzing C & C (e.g., Mirumachi and Van Wyk, 2010;Wolf, 2007;Wolf et al., 2003), and investigating influential factors in C & C (e.g., Dinar et al., 2010;Zeitoun et al., 2011a, b), often in a scenario-based context. Recently, C & C in transboundary water systems have attracted the attention of socio-hydrological research, which focuses on the coevolutionary behavior of social and hydrological systems (Sivapalan et al., 2012). ...
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While conflict-and-cooperation phenomena in transboundary basins have been widely studied, much less work has been devoted to representing the process interactions in a quantitative way. This paper identifies the main factors in the riparian countries' willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin, involving Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, from 1983 to 2016. We propose a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate at the national and river basin scales. Our results suggest that relative political stability and foreign direct investment can explain Ethiopia's decreasing willingness to cooperate between 2009 and 2016. Further, we show that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. While the proposed model has some limitations regarding model assumptions and parameters, it does provide a quantitative representation of the evolution of cooperation pathways among the riparian countries, which can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operation and other management decisions on the emergence of conflict and cooperation in the basin.
... A huge step in understanding transboundary freshwater management was documenting the world's international river basins, of which there are 312 [35]. Doing so has enabled researchers to understand which river basins are most at-risk for various stressors and which are most likely to be resilient based on institutional capacity (see [13,15,[36][37][38]. Given the wide variety of data available on indicators of water stress (e.g., ...
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The water governance discourse focuses on the use of water from rivers—and increasingly lakes and aquifers—for a variety of human uses, often in a competing manner. Largely missing from this discourse are wetlands. Despite an increased understanding of the benefits of wetlands, global wetland area continues to decrease. Particularly in international river basins, upstream water withdrawals are having negative impacts on wetlands, and the communities that rely on them downstream. Following the framework of transboundary water cooperation, the joint management of transboundary wetlands in the context of integrated basin management may prevent conflict and lead to further collaboration. As a first step to understand how wetlands may fit into water cooperation, this research employs spatial analysis and document analysis to identify transboundary wetlands and possible institutions to manage them, providing a basis for analyzing conflict and cooperation dynamics in them. The products of this research are a database and map of 300 transboundary wetlands, including the river basins (and, when applicable, the River Basin Organizations) they fall within.
... Robust evidence suggests environmental problems (related to climate change) can be dealt with cooperatively, hence leading to more positive and peaceful relations between groups (Wolf et al., 2003;Ide, 2019). To avert violent outcomes induced by climate change, stronger local and national climate adaptation institutions within vulnerable societies, and stronger cooperative resource governance mechanisms between vulnerable countries (such as transboundary water governance agreements) are needed. ...
The transboundary nature of water may lead to conflicts regarding its use. Yet, entities, both national and international, are more likely to cooperate over water than to engage in conflict. While the risk of water conflict may be exacerbated by several factors, institutional capacity, in the form of treaties or river basin organizations, has been found to both prevent water conflict and enhance water cooperation.
The transboundary nature of water may lead to conflicts regarding its use. Yet, entities, both national and international, are more likely to cooperate over water than to engage in conflict. While the risk of water conflict may be exacerbated by several factors, institutional capacity, in the form of treaties or river basin organizations, has been found to both prevent water conflict and enhance water cooperation.
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Due to increasing demand for various human needs and climate change issues, rivers are now under enormous pressure. With increasing pressure on these valuable natural resources, responses among state and non-state actors are insufficient in the Anthropocene. To fill the gap, International Environmental Law (IEL) provides several principles for better management of these resources. Equitable utilisation and minimisation of environmental harm are among the most important principles of the IEL. From a theoretical perspective, these principles should lead to the sustainability of these resources and promote cooperation among relevant actors. However, many river basins are still not allocated equitably and suffer from environmental damage. By using comparative, doctrinal, and empirical research methods, this thesis evaluates the two principles at the international level in Tigris and Euphrates River Basin, the federal level in Murray Darling Basin and at the local level in the Waikato River catchment. The research discovered major challenges for implementing the two principles. One major challenge is sovereignty, another is a lack or weakness of local voices and transparency. As the nature and status of all basins are different, the challenges are not exactly the same. For example, hearing local voices and better information transparency have significantly improved in the Waikato River. As the challenges for implementing the two principles are not purely legal, the responses should blend legal solutions with political and socio-economic solutions. Therefore, this thesis strongly supports shared sovereignty among states at the international level as well as shared sovereignty with indigenous and minority groups at the national level. Cooperation among national and international actors in the river basins is also crucial for implementing the two principles effectively. Finally, there is the opportunity to establish basin institutions or organisations to manage river basins integrated and sustainable. This is vital in the case of TE-RB because the basin still lacks an institution. Furthermore, the basin institution in the MDB requires more robust compliance and monitoring power because the provisions of the Water Act 2007 and the basin plan still have not been implemented effectively. Finally, the thesis concludes with two common lessons in comparing these cases. The first lesson is that equitable utilisation cannot be implemented effectively if it is not accepted by the local community in a broad and deep meaning. It means that the equitable allocation should be extended from only the riparian states to equitable allocation among the people within each state. The second lesson is that the minimisation of environmental harm cannot be implemented without determining the minimum flow of rivers, particularly transboundary rivers. Determining an environmental impact assessment for water projects and taking advantage of available solutions of nature contributes significantly in implementing the two principles and sustainable management of our rivers.
Building trust is the foundation for reliable and sustainable cooperation between upstream and downstream riparians of a shared watercourse. This research aimed to assess the challenges of trust building between upstream Afghanistan and downstream Iran on the Helmand River. Given the rapid climatic changes and the high demand for water use due to increases in population and agricultural expansion in the basin, this research argues that both nations failed to fully implement the 1973 Helmand River Treaty, which has eroded opportunities to build trust between the two riparians. Also, the paper asserts that by prioritizing national security interests over transboundary interests and by implementing a one-sided data sharing approach in practice, both Iran and Afghanistan created significant challenges for the establishment of trust between them. The paper concludes that to establish a long-lasting trust between the two neighboring states, both countries should hold themselves responsible for and committed to cooperation through a proper data sharing mechanism. KEYWORDS: Helmand River Treaty, Helmand River Basin, trust, data sharing, water conflict
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The transboundary Aras River basin is shared by Turkey, Armenia, Iran, and Azerbaijan. The water resources of the basin have been the basis for major economic activity that has been associated with different hydropolitical interactions of the riparian states. This study investigated the status and trends of these interactions from the perspectives of cooperation and conflict as well as their possible future. The records of the water events of the Aras basin from the IWED (International Water Event Database) database and other creditable sources for four periods from 1926 to 2021 were assessed. The interactions were temporally evaluated with respect to type and dynamics using the TWINS (Transboundary Waters Interaction Nexus) framework. The results showed that basin gains from numerous agreements, joint water projects, and joint technical commissions initially were the grounds for cooperation. However, the Nagorno–Karabakh terrestrial conflict and its anticipated consequences on the geopolitics of the basin as well as water quality and upstream water projects could produce additional conflict. The TWINS analysis revealed that 70% of the water interactions were at the non-politicization or politicization levels, indicating the basin experienced a relatively positive cooperative status (mainly subperiods 1 and 3). However, the remaining 30% of events fell into the securitization or violation levels in recent years (subperiod 4). This indicates that the basin is susceptible to moving towards more conflict.
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The authors describe the construction of a 0.5° latitude/longitude gridded dataset of monthly terrestrial surface climate over for the period 1901-1996. The dataset comprises a suite of 7 climate elements: precipitation, mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, wet-day frequency, vapour pressure, cloud cover and ground-frost frequency. The spatial coverage extends over all land areas, excluding Antarctica. Fields of monthly climate anomalies, relative the 1961-1990 mean, were interpolated from surface climate data. The anomaly grids were then added to a 1961-1990 mean monthly climatology (described in Part I) to arrive at grids of monthly climate. The primary variables, precipitation, mean temperature and diurnal temperature range, were interpolated directly from station observations. The resulting time-series are compared with other, coarser resolution, datasets of similar temporal extent. The remaining climatic elements, termed secondary variables, were interpolated from merged datasets, comprising station observations and, in regions where there were no station data, synthetic data estimated using predictive relationships with the primary variables, which are described and evaluated. It is argued that this new dataset represents an advance other products because (i) it has higher spatial resolution than other datasets of similar temporal extent, (ii) it has longer temporal coverage than other products of similar spatial resolution; (iii) it encompasses a more extensive suite of surface climate variables than available elsewhere and (iv) the construction method ensures that strict temporal fidelity is maintained. The dataset is available from the Climatic Research Unit.
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This paper explains how hydropolitical dynamics and spatial variables almost triggered a water war between Israel and Lebanon because the latter was building a pump on the Wazzani Spring, a tributary of the Jordan River. The convergence of a regional drought, history of violent confrontations between the two riparians, distrust, varying development needs and territorial disputes almost culminated in a war between these east Mediterranean neighbours. While most international water disputes in the Middle East will be resolved peacefully, some are likely to trigger violent confrontations threatening political stability in the Middle East in the next few decades.
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In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco-nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.
A number of developments have taken place in recent years in the regime of international watercourses at the bilateral, regional and international levels. Those developments prompted the idea of organizing the seminar, with the view of looking at international watercourses as a concept from both an intellectual and operational viewpoint. The structure of this report reflects the organization and design of the seminar that was held on November 3-4, 1997. The first part of the report deals with the regulatory framework for international watercourses. Chapter 1 provides an historical and conceptual context for the regulation and uses of international watercourses. Chapter 2 introduces the UN convention on the law of the non-navigational uses of international watercourses, gives an overview of its provisions and discusses its prospects and pitfalls. Both chapters discuss the controversial areas of the convention, and explain how such controversies and disagreements were addressed. The second part of the report deals with the bank policy for projects on international waterways. Chapter 3 traces the history and evolution of the policy, analyzes its basic concepts and details the inter-relationship between the evolution of the policy and the development of international law in this area. The third part of the report deals with international watercourses and the environment. Chapter 4 presents the strategies adopted recently for protecting the environment of international watercourses in Europe, specially with the challenges posed by the break-up of the Soviet Union, and the resulting expansion of the membershhip of the economic commission for Europe. The chapter reviews and analyzes the recently adopted conventions: the Helsinki convention on the protection and use of transboundary watercourses, and international lakes and the Espoo convention on environmental impact assessment, and highlights the problems and the prospects for those conventions. Chapter 5 traces the environmental problems of the Aral Sea, how they were exacerbated, and discusses the dangers posed by such problems. The chapter discusses the Aral Sea basin program and its objectives, as well as the institutional, legal and financial pre-requisites for implementing the program. Chapter 6 deals with the problems being faced in the management of international water in Africa, with particular emphasis on the Volta Basin, Lake Victoria and the international rivers within SADC. It describes the stresses (water scaricity, drought, watershed and aquatic ecosystems degradation) which have emerged as a result of uncoordinated use of resources, and capacity imbalances within each case, and suggests the lesson that can be learnt from those three case studies. The fourth part of the report deals with conflict resolution of international watercourses. Chapter 7 deals with the Gabcikovo-Nagymaros dispute between Hungary and Slovakia over whether or not to build two barrages on the Danube river, and the decision of the International Court of Justice thereon. The chapter describes the considerable extent to which the court has bone towards developing the law in relation to international watercourses and the need to protect the environment. Chapter 8 describes the origins of the dispute between India and Balgladesh over the Ganges river, the previous attempts to resolve the dispute, and the reasons for the failure of such attempts. It reviews and analyzes the provisions of the recently concluded treaty, and discusses the dynamics of implication of the treaty in its first year, and the implications for the future. Chapter 9 traces the roots of the dispute between India and Pakistan over the Indus Basin and describes the role of the World Bank in resolving the dispute and in the conclusion of the Indus Treaty. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the reason for the success of the bank in the Indus Basin. The conclusion underscores the importance of international legal norms, reflected in the UN convention and the various regional and bilateral instruments, in enhancing cooperation and managing conflict over international watercourses. It also argues that these instruments demonstrate a trend towards more comprehensive strategies for managing and protecting international watercourses.
Evapotranspiration is a key element in climate related studies on all spatial and temporal scales. Recent studies have shown that evapotranspiration can be estimated with some degree of precision using semiempirical and analytical models. By this study, a method for the estimation of evapotranspiration using the available global data sets has been proposed. Monthly global potential evapotranspiration (PET) on 30-minute latitude-longitude grid was estimated based on the Priestley-Taylor method using global data sets including air temperature, albedo, cloudiness, elevation, which are parts of Global Ecosystems Database supplied by NOAA-EPA.
Peter H. Gleick is director of the Global Environment Program at the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, in Oakland, California. This article is modified and updated from Occasional Paper No. 1, "Water and Conflict," of the project "Environmental Change and Violent Conflict" of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Cambridge, Massachusetts and the University of Toronto (September 1992). Helpful comments on earlier versions were provided by Jeffrey Boutwell, Fen Hampson, Haleh Hatami, John Holdren, Tad Homer-Dixon, Miriam Lowi, Irving Mintzer, Laura Reed, the late Roger Revelle, and Arthur Westing. Financial support for different portions of this work has been provided to the Pacific Institute by the Joyce Mertz-Gilmore, New-Land, and Compton Foundations, and by the Ploughshares and Rockefeller Brother Funds. 1. The earliest references to national "security" included concerns about economic issues, the strength of domestic industry, and the "proper correlation of all measures of foreign and domestic policy." For a brief history of definitions of national security, see Joseph J. Romm, "Defining National Security," Council on Foreign Relations Occasional Paper (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, forthcoming 1993). In their book, The Ecological Perspective on Human Affairs with Special Reference to International Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1965), Harold and Margaret Sprout identified the environment as one factor that influences a nation's foreign policy. For discussion of the principal points in the on-going debate, see Peter H. Gleick, "Environment, Resources, and International Security and Politics," in Eric Arnett, ed., Science and International Security: Responding to a Changing World (Washington, D.C.: American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1990), pp. 501-523; Peter H. Gleick, "Environment and Security: Clear Connections," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 47, No. 3 (April 1991), pp. 17-21; Jessica Tuchman Mathews, "Redefining Security," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 68, No. 2 (Spring 1989), pp. 162-177; Richard H. Ullman, "Redefining Security," International Security, Vol. 8, No. 1 (Summer 1983), pp. 129-153; Arthur H. Westing, ed., Global Resources and International Conflict: Environmental Factors in Strategic Policy and Action (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986). Definitional issues are discussed by Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, "On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict," International Security, Vol. 16, No. 2 (Fall 1991), pp. 76-116. 2. These issues are reviewed in far more depth by Gleick, "Environment, Resources and International Security and Politics"; Gleick, "Environment and Security: Clear Connections"; Homer-Dixon, "On the Threshold"; and Daniel Deudney, "Environment and Security: Muddled Thinking," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 47, No. 3 (April 1991), pp. 22-28. 3. "The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, March 22, 1985," Final Act (Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP]); "The Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer, September 16, 1987"; Final Act (Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP); and the London Revisions to the Montreal Protocol, June 1990, whose text can be found in "Report of the Second Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer," UNEP/OzL. Pro. 2/3, June 29, 1990 (London: UNEP). The complete texts of all of these can be found together in Richard E. Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy, World Wildlife Fund and the Conservation Foundation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1991). 4. For example, see President Gorbachev's speech, "Reality and Guarantees for a Secure World," published in English in Moscow News, supplement to issue No. 39 (3287), 1987; the statement by Secretary of State James A. Baker 3d on January 30, 1989, New York Times, January 31, 1989, p. 1; and comments by Senators Sam Nunn, Albert Gore, and Timothy Wirth, Congressional Record, June 28, 1990, S8929-8943. Environmental security was also a central topic of discussion among military analysts at the National War College, National Defense University symposium, "From Globalism to Regionalism—New Perspectives on American Foreign and Defense Policies," November 14-15, 1991. 5. Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, "Environmental Change and Violent Conflict," Occasional Paper No. 4, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Cambridge, Mass., and the University of Toronto (1990); Ronnie Lipschutz and John P. Holdren, "Crossing Borders: Resource Flows, the Global Environment, and International Security," Bulletin...
Typescript (photocopy). Thesis (Ph. D.)--Oregon State University, 2002. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 126-133).
International Freshwater Conflict: Issues and Prevention Strategies
  • P Samson
  • B Charrier
Samson, P. and B. Charrier, 1997. International Freshwater Conflict: Issues and Prevention Strategies. Green Cross Report.