Chemical weather forecasting: A new concept of integrated modelling

Abstract

During the last decade a new field of atmospheric modelling – the chemical
weather forecasting (CWF) – is quickly developing and growing. However, in
the most of the current studies and publications, this field is considered
in a simplified concept of the off-line running chemical transport models
with operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) data as a driver. A new
concept and methodology considering the chemical weather as two-way
interacting meteorological weather and chemical composition of the
atmosphere is suggested and discussed. The on-line integration of
mesometeorological models and atmospheric aerosol and chemical transport
models gives a possibility to utilize all meteorological 3-D fields in the
chemical transport model at each time step and to consider feedbacks of air
pollution (e.g. urban aerosols) on meteorological processes/climate forcing
and then on the atmospheric chemical composition. This very promising way
for future atmospheric simulation systems (as a part of and a step to Earth
System Modelling) will lead to a new generation of models for
meteorological, environmental and chemical weather forecasting. The
methodology how to realise the suggested integrated CWF concept is
demonstrated on the example of the European Enviro-HIRLAM integrated system.
The importance of different feedback mechanisms for CWF is also discussed in
the paper.

Full text

Adv. Sci. Res., 4, 23–27, 2010
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9th EMS Annual Meeting and 9th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology 2009
Chemical weather forecasting:
a new concept of integrated modelling
A. Baklanov
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Received: 23 December 2009 – Revised: 14 March 2010 – Accepted: 24 March 2010 – Published: 26 March 2010
Abstract. During the last decade a new field of atmospheric modelling – the chemical weather forecasting
(CWF) – is quickly developing and growing. However, in the most of the current studies and publications, this
field is considered in a simplified concept of the off-line running chemical transport models with operational
numerical weather prediction (NWP) data as a driver. A new concept and methodology considering the chem-
ical weather as two-way interacting meteorological weather and chemical composition of the atmosphere is
suggested and discussed. The on-line integration of mesometeorological models and atmospheric aerosol and
chemical transport models gives a possibility to utilize all meteorological 3-D fields in the chemical transport
model at each time step and to consider feedbacks of air pollution (e.g. urban aerosols) on meteorological
processes/climate forcing and then on the atmospheric chemical composition. This very promising way for
future atmospheric simulation systems (as a part of and a step to Earth System Modelling) will lead to a new
generation of models for meteorological, environmental and chemical weather forecasting. The methodology
how to realise the suggested integrated CWF concept is demonstrated on the example of the European Enviro-
HIRLAM integrated system. The importance of different feedback mechanisms for CWF is also discussed in
the paper.
1 Introduction
During the last decade a new field of atmospheric modelling
– the chemical weather forecasting (CWF) – is quickly de-
veloping and growing (Lawrence et al., 2005). This was pos-
sible mostly due to the quickly growing supercomputer ca-
pability and operationally available high-resolution numer-
ical weather prediction (NWP) data for atmospheric chem-
ical transport models (ACTMs). However, in the most of
the current systems, studies and publications this new di-
rection is considered in a simplified concept. It includes
only operational air quality forecast for the main pollutants
significant for health effects and uses numerical ACTMs
with operational NWP data as a driver (see e.g. the COST
Action ES0602: Towards a European Network on Chemi-
cal Weather Forecasting and Information Systems, website:
http://www.chemicalweather.eu/, leader Prof. J. Kukkonen).
Such an approach has limitations due to the off-line way
of coupling the ACTMs with NWP or mesometeorological
models (MMMs) (which are running fully independently and
NWP does not get any benefits from the ACTM) without a
Correspondence to: A. Baklanov
(alb@dmi.dk)
possibility to consider any feedback mechanisms. Many ex-
perimental studies (Rosenfeld, 2000; Bellouin et al., 2005;
Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008) and numerical research
simulations (Jacobson, 2002; Grell et al., 2004; Schulz et
al., 2006) show that atmospheric processes (meteorological
weather, including the precipitation, thunderstorms, radia-
tion budget, cloud processes and planetary boundary-layer
(PBL) structure) depend on concentrations of chemical com-
ponents in the atmosphere.
Chemical species influencing weather and atmospheric
processes include greenhouse gases which warm near-
surface air and aerosols such as sea salt, dust, primary
and secondary particles of anthropogenic and natural origin.
Some aerosol particle components (black carbon, iron, alu-
minium, polycyclic and nitrated aromatic compounds) warm
the air by absorbing solar and thermal-infrared radiation,
while others (water, sulphate, nitrate, most of organic com-
pounds) cool the air by backscattering incident short-wave
radiation to space. The aerosols, beside the above men-
tioned direct effect (via radiation), include many other differ-
ent mechanisms of aerosol-chemistry-cloud-radiation-PBL-
emission interactions, in particular the semi-direct, first and
second indirect effects.
Published by Copernicus Publications.

24 A. Baklanov: Chemical weather forecasting: a new concept of integrated modelling
Therefore ACTMs have to be run together with NWP
models on the same computational grid and with the same
time step using online coupling and considering two-way in-
teraction between the meteorological processes, from one
side, and chemical transformation and aerosol dynamics,
from the other side.
2 Concept and methodology for integrated CWF
modeling
Proceeding from the above mentioned limitations, a newcon-
cept and methodology considering the chemical weather as
two-way interacting physical and chemical weather is sug-
gested. The CWF should include not only health-effecting
pollutants (air quality components) but also green-house
gases and aerosols effecting climate, meteorological pro-
cesses, etc. Such a concept of CWF requests a strategy of a
new generation integrated meteorology and ACT modelling
systems for predicting atmospheric composition, meteorol-
ogy and climate change. The on-line integration of meteoro-
logical or NWP models and atmospheric aerosol and chem-
ical transport models gives a possibility to utilise all meteo-
rological 3-D fields in ACTM at each time step and to con-
sider feedbacks of atmospheric aerosols on meteorological
processes and climate forcing, and further on the chemical
composition (as a chain of dependent nonlinear processes).
This promising way for future atmospheric simulation sys-
tems will lead to a new generation of integrated models for
meteorological, environmental and chemical weather fore-
casting.
The current COST728 Action “Enhancing meso-scale
meteorological modelling capabilities for air pollution and
dispersion applications” (
http://www.cost728.org, leader
Prof. R. Sokhi) addresses key issues concerning the devel-
opment of meso-scale models for atmospheric environmental
problems and, in particular, it encourages the advancementof
science in terms of integration methodologies and strategies
in Europe. The final integration strategy will not be focused
around any particular model, instead it will be possible to
consider an open integrated system with a fixed architecture
(module interface structure) and with a possibility of incor-
porating different ACTMs and MMMs/NWP models. Such
a strategy may only be realised through jointly agreed speci-
fications of module structure for easy-to-use interfacing and
integration.
The overall aim of COST728 working group 2 (WG2),
“Integrated systems of MMM and ACTM: strategy, inter-
faces and module unification”, is to identify the require-
ments for the unification of MMM and ACTM modules and
to propose recommendations for a European strategy for in-
tegrated meso-scale modelling capabilities. The first report
of WG2 (COST-WMO, 2007) compiles the existing state-of-
the-art methodologies, approaches, models and practices for
building integrated (offline and online) meso-scale systems
in different, mostly European, countries. The report also in-
cludes an overview and a summary of the existing integrated
models and their characteristics as they are presently used.
The model contributions were compiled using COST mem-
ber contributions, each focusing on national model systems.
The modern strategy for integrating MMMs and ACTMs
is suggested to consider air quality modelling as a combi-
nation of (at least) the following factors: air pollution, re-
gional/urban climate/meteorological conditions and popula-
tion exposure. This combination is reasonable due to the fol-
lowing facts: meteorology is the main source of uncertainty
in air pollution and emergency preparedness models; meteo-
rological and pollution components have complex and com-
bined effects on human health (e.g., the Paris deadly heat
wave in July–August 2003 was caused by different com-
bined risk factors: high temperature, ozone concentrations,
etc.); pollutants, especially aerosols, influence climate forc-
ing and meteorological events (radiation, precipitation, thun-
derstorms, etc.).
The integration/coupling of the NWP/MMM and ACT
models can be realized by different ways using the online
and offline modelling approaches. In more details the defi-
nition and specifics of the approaches, as well as the advan-
tages and disadvantages of the online and offline modelling
are described by Baklanov and Korsholm (2007) and in the
COST-WMO report (2007). It can be realized using the fol-
lowing possible variants (see Fig. 1):
One-way integration (offline coupling):
1. MMM (or any other regional climate or NWP model)
meteorological fields used to drive ACTM (this way
is traditionally used by many air pollution modellers)
(←−);
2. ACTM chemical composition fields as a driver for re-
gional climate modelling or for NWP (e.g. for aerosol
forcing on meteo-processes) (99K).
Two-way integration:
1. Driver and partial feedbacks, for ACTM or for NWP
(data exchange via an interface with a limited time pe-
riod: offline or online access coupling) (⇐⇒);
2. ACTM built inside MMM or NWP model with full
feedbacks included on each time step (online coupling)
(⇐⇒).
In this context, several levels of MMM and ACTM
coupling/integration can be considered:
off-line:
– separate ACTMs driven by meteorological input data
from meteo-preprocessors, measurements or diagnostic
models,
Adv. Sci. Res., 4, 23–27, 2010 www.adv-sci-res.net/4/23/2010/

A. Baklanov: Chemical weather forecasting: a new concept of integrated modelling 25
Figure 1. Schematic diagram of different approaches for the integration of meteorological/climate and
atmospheric chemical transport models with one- or two-way interactions. Online coupling can be achieved
through the use of various available coupling tools or through directly inlining the chemical and aerosol
modules into the NWP models.
In this context, several levels of MMM and ACTM coupling/integration can be considered:
off-line
:
o separate ACTMs driven by meteorological input data from meteo-preprocessors, measurements or
diagnostic models,
o separate ACTMs driven by analysed or forecasted meteorological data from NWP archives or datasets,
o separate ACTMs reading output-files from operational NWP models or specific MMMs at limited time
intervals (e.g. 1, 3, 6 hours).
on-line
:
o on-line access models, when meteorological data are available at each time-step (possibly via a model
interface as well),
o on-line integration of ACTM into MMM, where two-way feedbacks may be considered. We will use this
definition for on-line coupled/integrated modelling.
The last level of the on-line integration with two-way feedbacks can consider the full chain of feedbacks and
is recommended as the main strategy for integrated CWF models. These methodologies of the integrated
CWF have been realised by several of the COST action partners such as the Danish Meteorological Institute
(DMI), with the Enviro-HIRLAM model (Baklanov et al., 2008a; Korsholm et al., 2008; Korsholm, 2009)
and the COSMO consortium with the Lokal Modell (Vogel et al., 2006, Wolke et al., 2003), as well as the
American WRF-Chem (Grell et al., 2004, 2005) integrated system. These model developments for chemical
weather forecasting are an activity of increasing importance which is due to be supported by the ongoing
COST action ES0602.
The Enviro-HIRLAM integrated system, recently developed by DMI and other collaborators
1
(Chenevez et
al., 2004; Baklanov et al., 2008a; Korsholm et al., 2008, Korsholm, 2009), is an online coupled model for
research and forecasting of both meteorological and chemical weather. It includes two-way feedbacks
between air-pollutants and meteorological processes. Atmospheric chemical transport equations are
implemented inside the meteorological corner on each time step (Chenevez et al., 2004). To make the model
suitable for CWF in urban areas, where most of the population is concentrated, the meteorological part is
improved by the implementation of urban sublayer modules and parameterisations (Baklanov et al., 2008b).
The aerosol module in Enviro-HIRLAM comprises a thermodynamic equilibrium model and the aerosol
dynamics model CAC (Gross and Baklanov, 2004) based on the modal approach. Parameterisations of the
aerosol feedback mechanisms in the Enviro-HIRLAM model are described in Korsholm et al. (2008) and
Korsholm (2009). Several chemical mechanisms can be chosen depending on the specific tasks.
Model validation and sensitivity tests of the on-line versus off-line integrated versions (Grell et al., 2004,
2005; Korsholm et al., 2009) show that the online coupling improves the modelling results. Grell et al. (2005)
show improved predictions of average ozone concentrations when using the online version of WRF-Chem.
Korsholm et al. (2009) using the online Enviro-HIRLAM for the ETEX-1 experiment release show that the
off-line coupling interval increase leads to considerable error and a false peak (not found in the observations),
which almost disappears in the online version that resolves meso-scale influences during plume development.
1
At the current stage the Enviro-HIRLAM model is used as the baseline system for the HIRLAM chemical brunch, and additionally to
the HIRLAM community the following groups join the development team: University of Copenhagen, Tartu University (Estonia),
Russian State Hydro-Meteorological University, Bilbao University (Spain), Odessa State Environmental University (Ukraine), etc.
Aerosol Dynamics
Model
Transport &
Chemistry Models
Atmospheric
Dynamics /
Climate Model
Ocean and
Ecosystem Models
Atmospheric
Contamination Models
Climate /
Meteorological Models
Interface / Cou
p
ler
Figure 1. Schematic diagram of different approaches for the inte-
gration of meteorological/climate and atmospheric chemical trans-
port models with one- or two-way interactions. Online coupling can
be achieved through the use of various available coupling tools or
through directly inlining the chemical and aerosol modules into the
NWP models.
– separate ACTMs driven by analysed or forecasted me-
teorological data from NWP archives or datasets,
– separate ACTMs reading output-files from operational
NWP models or specific MMMs at limited time inter-
vals (e.g. 1, 3, 6 h).
on-line:
– on-line access models, when meteorological data are
available at each time-step (possibly via a model inter-
face as well),
– on-line integration of ACTM into MMM, where two-
way feedbacks may be considered. We will use this
definition for on-line coupled/integrated modelling.
The last levelof the on-line integration with two-wayfeed-
backs can consider the full chain of feedbacks and is rec-
ommended as the main strategy for integrated CWF mod-
els. These methodologies of the integrated CWF have been
realised by several of the COST action partners such as
the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), with the Enviro-
HIRLAM model (Baklanov et al., 2008a; Korsholm et al.,
2008; Korsholm, 2009) and the COSMO consortium with
the Lokal Modell (Vogel et al., 2006; Wolke et al., 2003), as
well as the American WRF-Chem (Grell et al., 2004, 2005)
integrated system. These model developments for chemical
weather forecasting are an activity of increasing importance
which is due to be supported by the ongoing COST action
ES0602.
The Enviro-HIRLAM integrated system, recently devel-
oped by DMI and other collaborators
1
(Chenevez et al.,
2004; Baklanov et al., 2008a; Korsholm et al., 2008, Kor-
sholm, 2009), is an online coupled model for research and
forecasting of both meteorological and chemical weather.
It includes two-way feedbacks between air-pollutants and
meteorological processes. Atmospheric chemical transport
equations are implemented inside the meteorological corner
on each time step (Chenevez et al., 2004). To make the model
suitable for CWF in urban areas, where most of the popu-
lation is concentrated, the meteorological part is improved
by the implementation of urban sublayer modules and pa-
rameterisations (Baklanov et al., 2008b). The aerosol mod-
ule in Enviro-HIRLAM comprises a thermodynamic equilib-
rium model and the aerosol dynamics model CAC(Grossand
Baklanov, 2004) based on the modal approach. Parameteri-
sations of the aerosol feedback mechanisms in the Enviro-
HIRLAM model are described in Korsholm et al. (2008) and
Korsholm (2009). Several chemical mechanisms can be cho-
sen depending on the specific tasks.
Model validation and sensitivity tests of the on-line versus
off-line integrated versions (Grell et al., 2004, 2005; Kor-
sholm et al., 2009) show that the online coupling improves
the modelling results. Grell et al. (2005) show improved pre-
dictions of average ozone concentrations when using the on-
line version of WRF-Chem. Korsholm et al. (2009) using
the online Enviro-HIRLAM for the ETEX-1 experiment re-
lease show that the off-line coupling interval increase leads
to considerable error and a false peak (not found in the obser-
vations), which almost disappears in the online version that
resolves meso-scale influences during plume development.
In the case study by Zhang (2008) it was shown that in-
cluding only the direct aerosol effects leads to a tempera-
ture change about 0.2
◦
C and the water vapor mixing ratio
increases more than 3% at/near surface. The effects of urban
aerosols on the urban boundary layer height, can be of the
same order of magnitude as the effects of the urban heat is-
land (∆h is up to 100–200m for stable boundary layer) (Bak-
lanov et al., 2008a). Korsholm et al. (2009) show that aerosol
feedbacks through the second indirect effect induce consid-
erable changes in meteorological fields and large changes in
chemical composition, in particular NO
2
, in a case of con-
vective cloud cover and little precipitation.
1
At the current stage the Enviro-HIRLAM model is used as the
baseline system for the HIRLAM chemical branch, and additionally
to the HIRLAM community the following groups join the develop-
ment team: University of Copenhagen, Tartu University (Estonia),
Russian State Hydro-Meteorological University, Bilbao University
(Spain), Odessa State Environmental University (Ukraine), etc.
www.adv-sci-res.net/4/23/2010/ Adv. Sci. Res., 4, 23–27, 2010

26 A. Baklanov: Chemical weather forecasting: a new concept of integrated modelling
3 Discussion and conclusions
The new concept and methodology considering the chemical
weather as two-way interacting meteorological weather and
chemical composition of the atmosphere is suggested for fu-
ture chemical weather forecasting systems.
These on-line coupled model developments will lead to a
new generation of integrated models not only for the chem-
ical weather forecasting, but also for improved meteorologi-
cal weather forecasting (e.g., in urban areas, severe weather
events, fog and visibility, UV-radiation and solar energy,
etc.), bio-meteorological forecasting, climate change mod-
elling, air quality analysis and mitigations, long-term assess-
ment chemical composition.
Main advantages of the on-line modelling approach in-
clude: (i) Only one grid for MMM and ACTM, no interpo-
lation in space and time, (ii) Physical parameterizations and
numerical schemes are the same, no inconsistencies; (iii) All
3-D meteorological variables are available at the right time
at each time step; (iv) No restriction in variability of meteo-
rological fields; (v) Possibility to consider two-way feedback
mechanisms; (vi) No need for meteo- pre/post-processors.
However, for specific tasks the off-line approach can also
be useful and includes the following advantages in separate
cases, e.g. for risk assessments: (i) Possibility of independent
parameterizations; (ii) More suitable for ensemble activities;
(iii) Easier to use for the inverse modelling and adjoint prob-
lem; (iv) Independence of atmospheric pollution model runs
on meteorological model computations; (v) More flexible
grid construction and generation for ACTMs, (vi) Suitable
for emission scenarios analysis and air quality management.
The COST-WMO (2007) and further COST-NetFAM
(2008) overviews show a quite surprising number of on-
line coupled MMM and ACTM model systems already being
used in Europe. However, many of the on-line coupled mod-
els are not built for the mesometeorological scale, and they
(e.g. GME, ECMWF GEMS, MESSy) are global-scale mod-
elling systems and first of all designed for climate change
modelling. Besides, at the current stage most of the on-
line coupled models do not consider feedback mechanisms
or include only direct effects of aerosols on meteorologi-
cal processes (like COSMO LM-ART and MCCM). Only
two meso-scale on-line integrated modelling systems (WRF-
Chem and Enviro-HIRLAM) consider feedbacks with indi-
rect effects of aerosols.
It is necessary to highlight that the interactions of aerosols
and other chemical species with meteorological processes
have many different pathways and they have to be priori-
tised and considered in on-line coupled modelling systems
for CWF. Further sensitivity studies are needed to understand
the relative importance of different feedback mechanisms for
different species, scales and conditions relevant to air quality
and meteorology interactions. A concerted action to mobilise
and coordinate European research in this area is needed.
Acknowledgements. This study was supported by the COST
Actions 728 and ES0602, NetFAM, EC FP7 Project MEGAPOLI
and the Copenhagen Global Change Initiative (COGCI). The
author is grateful to a number of COST728, FUMAPEX, Enviro-
HIRLAM, MEGAPOLI and DMI colleagues, who participated
in the above-mentioned projects, for productive collaboration
and discussions. Especial thanks are to my former PhD student
Ulrik Korsholm (DMI) who realised most of the Enviro-HIRLAM
model coding, simulation runs and studies of the aerosol indirect
effects.
Edited by: M. Piringer
Reviewed by: two anonymous referees
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