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Climate change and the railway industry: A review
Abstract
This article considers the issues surrounding climate change and the rail industry in two ways. First, it discusses the role that railways could play in reducing overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus help to reduce and mitigate the global temperature increase that will occur over the coming decades. It is argued that, while railways in general have lower emissions than other modes, if a significant decrease in emissions is to be attained, then the capacity of the current rail network needs to be greatly increased to encourage a significant modal shift from road and domestic air travel. Electrification and the provision of high-speed lines can also play a role in this regard, but only if the power that is drawn from the grid is supplied by low carbon sources. Second, the article considers the effect of climate change on the operation of the railway in the next few decades and the adaptations that will be required. The main effects of such changes are likely to be an increase in the track buckling problem, severe strain on railway drainage systems, and the increased likelihood of disruption because of extreme weather events. Ongoing work in this field, aimed at making the railways more resilient, is discussed. It is concluded that, for each of the two areas considered, there is a need for overall system modelling, both to fully evaluate possible mechanisms to reduce GHG emissions, taking account of transfer between modes, capacity limitations, and the national energy mix; and to properly evaluate the major climate change risks to railway operation and to prioritize the use of resources in tackling these issues.
... The quality of the track, ensured by adequate construction methods and materials and frequent maintenance, is essential to this purpose. Further, as demonstrate by several research, it is important to analyze also the effects of climate change on infrastructures vulnerability [8][9][10][11][12][13]. In this context, the development and renewal of infrastructures is a critical challenge [14][15][16]. ...
... Considering the quantity of the materials in the construction and maintenance of the rail track one of the strategies for sustainability deals with reducing, reusing, and recycling materials and extending products useful life through maintenance and repair. This is the concept of the Circular Economy (CE) intended in sensu stricto and focusing on the technological cycle of the resources and therefore as slowing (for the extended period of utilization) and closing (for the circular flow) 10 resource loops [71,72]. There is another definition of CE in sensu latu which refers to a sustainable economic system where economic growth is decoupled from resources use. ...
Rail, as the cleanest and greenest high-volume transport, has a central role in the decarbonizing, and it is expected to become the backbone of future mobility in the world. It is worthy to highlight that rail generates the lowest CO2 emissions and energy consumption in operation with respect to the other transportation modes but during construction and maintenance phases CO2 emission, energy consumption and other environmental impacts are significant and need to be carefully assessed and properly mitigated. This paper, based on an extensive literature review, provides a comprehensive framework of trends and challenge in railway sustainability. Attention is focused on track and related materials, maintenance strategies, and methods of assessment of the sustainability. Results show that improvement of materials and practices used in construction and appropriate strategies in maintenance, supported by effective monitoring of the state of the track, can reduce the negative effects on the environment and society and contributes to make this transportation mode greener. Proper methods for the assessment of the sustainability, (LCA, Circularity Index) help to quantify the potential of environmental enhancement of different solutions and constitute effective and indispensable tools in the decision-making process.
... Extreme cold causes brittle tracks and track separation while directly affecting the performance of rail operators (Xia et al., 2013). The severity of the climate effect is however, dependent on the type of design, age, and usage of the infrastructure (Baker et al., 2010). ...
... More recently, it is estimated that ∼1.6 million delay minutes on the railway each year are caused by weather conditions (Dawson et al., 2016). In Austria, about 95% of all infrastructure damages are triggered by floods and rain (Bachner, 2017). These weather-induced impacts result in different kinds of costs including infrastructure, operation, and user costs (Doll et al., 2014). ...
Given that climate variability and change present unprecedented challenges to the rail sector, efforts to produce relevant climate data/information for climate risk management and adaptive decision making in the rail sector are gaining traction. However, inadequate understanding of climate change impact and information needs raises several concerns for the sector. This paper addressed the question: What climate risk information services are needed to support the adaptation needs of the rail sector? Data from interviews, literature reviews, and workshops were used. The results show that changes in precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise, and thunderstorms are the top drivers of climate risk in the sector. Additionally, the need for tailor-made climate information to manage these changes is in high demand. Although insufficient, rail organizations use special protocols to manage climate risk. Understudied countries have operational and design standards formulated in metrics and codes related to specific critical weather conditions as part of their Natural Hazard Management process. However, desirable adjustments in the standards are currently based on past events rather than future climate conditions. Future climate change information is relevant for medium- to longer-term decisions, strategy, and policymaking. For operational and design standards, weather and climate information provided by national weather service agencies are used but they also refer to the European standards and databases. National level data/information is preferred for developing thresholds for standards yet pan-European level information is also relevant in filling in missing data gaps. Therefore, rail organizations operate on flexibility and a “use of best available data” policy. Understanding how climate information is used to support decision-making in the rail sector is by no means an easy task given the variety of decisions to be taken at different spatial and temporal scales. However, stakeholder engagement proved to be an important step to better inform tailor-made information that is user relevant.
... Numerous research studies have already tried to reveal the influence and/or cost of weather and climate change on infrastructure networks (e.g., Baker et al., 2010;Chinowsky et al., 2011;Dobney et al., 2009Dobney et al., , 2010Enei et al., 2011;FHWA, 2011;Koetse & Rietveld, 2009;Leviäkangas et al., 2011;Papanikolaou et al., 2011). These studies suggest that climate change will modify the risk of weather-induced impacts on infrastructure, challenging current design rules and procedures for transport infrastructure operation and maintenance, given that many are implicitly or explicitly based on an assumption that past conditions are representative of future weather. ...
... In simplistic terms, this may be based on the expected direction of change in the impact with climate change. Further studies are semi-quantitative, typically either (i) studying present-day weather impacts in detail, but future climate impacts only in overview (Dindar et al., 2016;Ferranti et al., 2016Ferranti et al., , 2018Geertsema et al., 2009;Liu et al., 2018); (ii) discussing quantitative climate projections, but with only qualitative (or no) relation of these to future infrastructure impacts (Arkell & Darch, 2006;Baker et al., 2010;Cochran, 2009;Hooper & Chapman, 2012;Koetse & Rietveld, 2009;Love et al., 2010;Loveridge et al., 2010;Nasr et al., 2019;Peterson et al., 2008;Tang et al., 2018); (iii) performing experiments on purpose-built infrastructure in testing environments designed to reproduce future weather conditions anticipated with climate change Kaewunruen & Tang, 2019;Toll et al., 2012), or (iv) a combination of these (Kilsby et al., 2009). ...
Weather phenomena can result in severe impacts on railway infrastructure. In future, projected changes to the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events could change weather–infrastructure risk profiles. Infrastructure owners and operators need to manage current weather impacts and put in place adequate plans to anticipate and adapt to changes in future weather risks, or mitigate the impacts arising from those risks. The assessment of the risk posed to railway infrastructure from current and future weather is dependent on a good understanding of the constituent components of risk: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. A good understanding of the baseline and projected future risk is needed in order to understand the potential benefits of various climate change adaptation actions. Traditional risk assessment methods need some modification in order to be applied to climate change timescales, for which decisions need to be made under deep uncertainty. This review paper highlights some key challenges for assessing the risk, including: managing uncertainties; understanding weather‐impact relationships and how they could change with climate change; assessing the costs of current and future weather impacts and the potential cost versus benefit of adaptation; and understanding practices and tools for adapting railway infrastructure. The literature reveals examples of progress and good practice in all these areas, providing scope for effective knowledge‐sharing—across the railway infrastructure and other sectors—in support of infrastructure resilience and adaptation.
This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change
... This assessment can differ (slightly) between European regions, such as coastal zones, mountainous areas or Nordic and Mediterranean regions. In addition to the regional differentiation, the impacts differ according to the type and especially quality of infrastructure and its maintenance (Baker et al. 2010). The worse an infrastructure unit is maintained, the higher the risk of damage and/or closure (due to safety reasons). ...
... • Switch protection • Pile construction for buildings with technical equipment (Maurer et al. 2012) • Cooling of signals and installation of fans to keep electronic equipment functional during periods of extreme heat (Hoffmann et al. 2009) • Increased (preventive) maintenance activities (infrastructure and existing protection systems) (Lindgren et al. 2009;Regmi and Hanaoka 2009) • Vegetation management along rail tracks (Lindgren et al. 2009;Maibach et al. 2012) • Installation of (automatic) monitoring systems (Lindgren et al. 2009;Baker et al. 2010) • Incentives (for responsible stakeholders) and regulations to apply and maintain adaptation measures (e.g., voluntary integration of adaptation measures into costbenefit analysis for new infrastructure) (Maurer et al. 2012) • Land use regulations (Lindgren et al. 2009;Maibach et al. 2012). ...
The assessment of the current impacts of extreme weather conditions on transport systems reveals high costs in specific locations. Prominent examples for Europe are the economic consequences of the harsh winter periods 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and the floods in Austria, Eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom in 2005 and 2007. Departing from the EC-funded project WEATHER, this paper delves into the subject of adaptation strategies by revisiting the project’s general findings on adaptation strategies and by adding two specific cases: (1) advanced winter maintenance on roads in southwest Germany and (2) technical and organizational measures in Alpine rail transport. For these two cases, feasible adaptation strategies are elaborated and their potential is discussed in light of damage cost forecasts up to 2050. For the road sector, we find a high potential to mitigate weather-related costs, although damages here are expected to decline. In contrast, rail systems face strongly increasing damages and the mitigation options offered by improved information and communication systems seem to be largely exploited. Consequently, it is easier to justify expensive adaptation measures for high-cost rail infrastructures than for road transport. A generic analysis of 14 damage cases worldwide, however, revealed that generally awareness raising, cooperation and communication strategies are sufficient to mitigate the most severe damages by natural disasters.
... Furthermore, rail's resilience is also to prepare emergency response and emergency recovery capabilities so that it can flexibly respond to rapidly changing environments such as rapidly increasing risks and unexpected events and operate safely [5]. In particular, the increase in natural disasters such as heavy rains, floods, typhoons, etc., and the risk of climate change, which we are currently facing globally, are expected to have a great impact on the resilience of the railway system [6]. Accordingly, Rail resilience will be an important factor in determining the safety and sustainability of the system. ...
The purpose of this research is to build a deep learning algorithm-based model that can use weather indicators to quantitatively predict financial losses associated with weather-related railroad accidents. Extreme weather events and weather disasters caused by global warming are happening with increasing frequency worldwide, leading to substantial economic losses. Railways, which represent one of the most important means of transportation, are also affected by such weather events. However, empirical and quantitative studies examining losses stemming from weather conditions for railways have to this point been scarce. Hence, the present study collected and analyzed weather-induced railway accident data and meteorological factors (wind, precipitation, rainfall, etc.) from 2001 to 2021 with the aim of predicting financial losses caused by weather events; the ultimate goal is to help inform long-term strategies for effective recovery from railway accidents. Objective and scientific analysis was conducted in the present study by using a deep learning algorithm. The outcomes and framework of this research will offer crucial guidelines for efficient and sustainable railway maintenance. These results will also serve as a crucial point of reference for loss quantification studies and other facility management studies.
... Forecast calculation of the soil thawing depth (H) at the monitoring site. Scenarios: I-no trend; II-taking into account the + 0.5 °C/10 years trend of variations in the atmospheric air temperature; III-taking into account the extreme summer precipitation (exceeding the norm by 2 times) and without the trend of changes in atmospheric air temperature; IV-taking into account the extreme summer precipitation as well as the trend of changes in atmospheric air temperature + 0.5 °C/10 years railway system, leading to an increase in maintenance costs (Baker et al. 2010;Nolte et al. 2011). Railway infrastructure elements considered to be most at risk in the event of a climate change include rails, trackbed, drainage systems, overhead contact lines, as well as coastal and floodplain protection systems. ...
According to long-term observations of the roadbed condition of one of the railway sections operated in the Russian permafrost zone, short-term heavy rains in 2022 caused significant changes in geocryological conditions in the area of construction. As a result of this abnormal weather phenomenon, the depth of seasonal thawing of frozen soils increased by 11%, along with an increased average annual temperature by 0.5–1.0 °C, as compared with previous years of normal precipitation. Between 2017 and 2021, a subsidence of the roadbed at a rate of 2–4 cm/year was recorded on the studied object. In terms of deformation intensity, the trackbed was relatively stable, characterized by the defective but completely operational state of the track. However, due to extreme precipitation occurring in in 2022, the trackbed deformation increased twofold to 7–9 cm/yr. Since the extremes of the precipitation regime and their annual amounts on the territory of Russia tend to increase, the number of exogenous processes dangerous to the railway infrastructure will only increase over time. According to the forecast based on thermotechnical calculations, which assumes extreme summer precipitation occurring with a frequency of once per 2 years and a continuing + 0.5 °C/10-year trend of variations in the atmospheric air temperature, the seasonal thawing depth of the permafrost soil in the studied railway section is expected to exceed 2.0 m by 2040. To date, the instrumentally recorded depth of thawing within the railway structure averages 0.65 m.
... There is a long list of publications and reviews devoted to climate change impact on railway transport operability and infrastructure in different countries, but all of them dis-cuss general negative issues from heat or cold waves, frosts, permafrost thawing, heavy rains, storms and high winds, extreme sea level and waves, riverine and coastal storm flooding, and show different case studies of this impact [2,[64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76]. However, we could not find a detailed atlas such as this one with a comprehensive set of different maps and parameters which display the ongoing regional climate change and its impact on railway networks in other parts of the world. ...
The Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is one of the most intensively developing regions of the country. Amongst the major domains of economic and industrial growth and improvement is transport infrastructure and particularly the railway network. This area is being exposed to negative factors of rapid climate change that can significantly affect and compromise this activity. Thus, it is vital to take them into account during design, construction, and operation of the railway infrastructure facilities. This work details the production of a digital atlas comprising the 1950–2021 dynamics of the main hydrometeorological parameters: air and soil temperature, precipitation, wind speed, air and soil humidity, and snow cover thickness. The maps are based on climatic data derived from the MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) reanalysis. In total there are 459, which are arranged into 7 chapters. The atlas geographically covers the western part of the Russian Arctic encompassing the regions of quite intensive transport development, which includes the construction of the Northern Latitudinal Railway. Original algorithms of geospatial data processing and their further representation as well as the maps compiled in GIS environment are discussed. Comprehensive analysis of climatic changes in the region of the Russian Arctic including detailed quantitative evaluation over 40 years is given. In the Discussion, we focus on those changes of the regional climate which, from our point of view, are the most significant for consideration by railway operators. The obtained results contribute to framing the theoretical basis of design, development, and sustainable operation of the railway infrastructure in the Arctic and facilitate the decision-making process. This is the first experience of building a specialized climatic cartographic product for the needs of the Russian railways, and to our knowledge the first atlas such as that in the world. In the future, the amassed experience may be transferred to other regions of the Russian Federation as well as similar regions in Canada, Sweden and Highland China that are also subject to significant climate change.
... It is more environmentally friendly than other modes of transportation. (Baker et al., 2010). As a result, rail has emerged as the alternative for moving freight that is least harmful to the environment. ...
In the background of global “carbon neutrality,” China Railway Express (CRE) is contributing to the long-term development of low-carbon environmental protection while promoting economic growth. Based on panel data of 284 cities at the prefecture level and above in China from 2003 to 2019, we empirically investigate the impact and mechanism of CRE opening on urban carbon emissions using the multi-period DID model and mediating effect model. Under the assumption of meeting parallel trends, we find that the opening of CRE considerably lowers urban carbon emissions by .78 percentage points as compared to the control group. This finding holds after placebo testing, PSM-DID estimation, replacing key variables, excluding other policies and disturbances from the opening of the high-speed railway (HSR), and overcoming endogeneity problems. According to the findings of the mechanism tests, the influence of transportation substitution, improved industrial structure, economic agglomeration, and trade openness are crucial mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions by opening CRE. Further heterogeneity tests show that the carbon reduction effect of CRE opening is more pronounced in east-central China, larger and non-resource-based cities. Therefore, this study suggests that the Chinese government should pay attention to the positive effect of CRE on environmental protection. The government should accelerate the construction of comprehensive transportation infrastructure while rationalizing the layout of economic activities and population clustering.
... Ambient temperature impacts road conditions, motor vehicles, and the physical and mental health of drivers. Previous studies observed that hot weather was the cause of various problems such as the deformation of railway lines (Baker et al., 2010), the fatigue damage of welded bridge decks, and softened asphalt (Mills and Andrey, 2002;Walsh et al., 2014). High temperature is known to affect humans by increasing stress and decreasing the performance of intellectual tasks (Nofal and Saeed, 1997), which in turn can increase the risk of traffic crashes. ...
Background:
Previous studies have shown that extreme heat likely increases the risk of road injuries. However, the global burden of road injuries due to high temperature and contributing factors remain unclear. This study aims to characterize the global, regional and national burden of road injuries due to high temperature from 1990 to 2019.
Methods:
Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we obtained the numbers and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates (ASDR) of the road injury due to high temperature at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019. The world is divided into five climate zones according to the average annual temperature of each country: tropical, subtropical, warm temperate, cold temperate, and boreal. We used the generalized additive models (GAM) to model the trends of road injuries globally and by region.
Results:
Globally, between 1990 and 2019, the deaths of road injury attributable to high temperature increased significantly from 20,270 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7836 to 42,716) to 28,396 (95% UI, 13,311 to 51,178), and the DALYs increased from 1,169,309 (95% UI, 450,834 to 2,491,075) to 1,414,527 (95% UI, 658,347 to 2,543,613). But the ASMR and the ASDR slightly decreased by 8.49% and 13.16%, respectively. The burden of road injury death attributable to high temperature remained high in low SDI and tropical regions. In addition, road transport infrastructure investment per inhabitant is associated with the burden of road injuries attributable to high temperature.
Conclusions:
Globally, the ASMR and ASDR for road injuries attributable to high temperature decreased from 1990 to 2019, but the absolute death and DALYs continued to increase. Thus, concerning global warming, implementation of prevention and interventions to reduce road injuries from heat exposure should be stressed globally.
... The causal role of target transport policy supported by investments in infrastructure and rolling stocks has been demonstrated by Evangelista et al. (2017). ARISCC (2016), Baker et al (2010), UNECE (2020) and Armstrong et al. (2017) and many other authors identified that the capacity of the current rail network and railway adaptation to the effects of climate change, are generally seen as factors strongly related to rail future advantages. Most of these discussions originated as the "grey literature" (i.e., public bodies' reports). ...
The EU sets ambitious climate and energy goals for 2030, or so-called European Green Deal, in compliance with the new global framework for sustainable development adopted by the UN General Assembly on September 25, 2015. The Green Deal is accompanied by legislative acts ensuring that both public and private funding depend significantly on the sustainability of economic activity. The definition and classification of sustainable activities are embedded in the EU Taxonomy Regulation. The purpose of this study is to find out how the stakeholders of railway sector perceive, react to, and feel about the Green Deal policy measures and approaches. After investigation of the relevant literature and compiling a structured questionnaire, persons involved in the operation of the railway sector (railway transport policy makers; railway undertakers and railway infrastructure managers) were convened and a focus group was conducted. This article describes the results of the focus group and identifies future directions for design thinking research on market responses to government interventions in supply chain operations.
... The railway has become one of the most important means of transport around the world in recent years, not only for passengers but also for goods. Governments from different countries are developing sustainable mobility strategies in which the railway will play a leading role against environment and climate change challenges [1], caused by its low carbon footprint compared to other transports. ...
The assembly and maintenance of electrified railway systems is of vital importance for its correct operation. Contact wires are critical elements since the correct collection of energy from trains through pantographs depends on them. Periodical inspection of the state of these installations is essential. This task traditionally implies a heavy manual workload subject to errors. A new system that allows one to check the state (height and stagger) of contact and messenger wires is presented on this article blueA new method based on seven steps for identifying the contact wires and measuring their height and stagger from point clouds recorded by means of a LiDAR system is presented. This system can be used both in assembly and maintenance phases, as well as afterwards, allowing the analysis of point clouds previously recorded. The new method was evaluated in both test bench and real environments against the commonly used measurement method. Results with the comparison between this new system and the commonly used measurement method in both test bench and real railway environments are presented. Results of this comparison show differences of less than a centimetre on average and the amount of time spent for the measuring phase is significantly decreased and not prone to human errors.
... Although there has been significant research on the impacts of heat on rail performance (e.g. Dobney et al., 2009;Baker et al., 2010;Jenkins et al., 2014;Doll et al., 2014aDoll et al., , 2014bJaroszweski et al., 2015;Ferranti et al., 2016;Roca et al., 2016;Brazil et al., 2017;Fu and Easton, 2018), research of the temperature impacts on LU has generally focused on the impacts to passenger comfort (e.g. Jenkins et al., 2014), especially across the deep tube section of the network where the temperatures experienced tend to be highest. ...
Rail infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events, resulting in damage and delays to networks. The impact of heat is a major concern for the London Underground (LU) by Transport for London (TfL) both now and in future, but existing studies are limited to passenger comfort on the deep tube and do not focus on infrastructure or the vast majority of the network, which is in fact above ground. For the first time, the present empirical study examines quantitatively the statistical relationship between LU delays (by synthesizing 2011–2016 industry data) with air temperature data (from Met Office archives). A range of testing shows strong statistical relationships between most delay variables and high temperatures, though not causality. Relationships were found between high temperatures and delays associated with different asset classes on different LU lines. Track‐related delays, often the focus of high‐temperature research (i.e. track buckling), show a relationship, although this is small relative to delays caused by other assets. Using UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) and assuming a similar future performance indicates that the share of annual delays owed to temperatures > 24°C may increase in frequency and length, depending on the emissions scenario. Recommendations include extending the analysis to the LU asset scale and considering the local environment to understand failure causality in order to mitigate future heat risk. A review of how TfL and other infrastructure operators capture delays for future analysis is necessary to facilitate climate resilience benchmarking between networks. Trend lines by change in the Fc¯daily per 1°C increment in the Tc¯max by London Underground line. C&H, Circle & Hammersmith lines; W&C, Waterloo & City line.
... The results obtained demonstrate that the annual average cost for predicted climate change scenarios reach up to £9.2 million. Baker et al. (2010) considered the issues surrounding climate change through two different perspectives. In 2012, a track buckle derailment on the Queensland rail network costs up to $1.2million in superstructure repairs and rolling stock recovery (Simpson, 2012). ...
With more than 3,200 km of track, the Spanish high-speed rail network is the longest network in Europe and the second largest in the world after China. Due to its geographical location in southern Europe, the entire network is exposed to periods of elevated temperatures that can cause disturbances and severe disruptions such as rail deformation, or in the worst case, lateral track buckling. In this study, the vulnerability of the current Spanish high-speed rail network is analysed in terms of track buckling failures with a Monte Carlo simulation. Downscaled temperature projections from a range of Global Climate Models (GCMs), under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), were forced in a buckling model and particularized for different segments of the network. With that, the proposed methodology provides the number of rail buckles expected per year by assuming current maintenance standards and procedures. The result reveals significant increase in the occurrence of buckling events for future years, mainly in the central and southern areas of mainland Spain. However, relevant variations are found in different climates and time horizon scenarios in Spain. The anticipated buckling occurrences highlight the vulnerability of the Spanish rail network in the context of global warming scenarios. Overall, the proposed methodology is designed to be applicable in large-scale railway networks to identify potential buckling sites for the purpose of understanding and predicting their behaviour.
... The results obtained demonstrate that the annual average cost for predicted climate change scenarios reach up to £9.2 million. Baker et al. (2010) considered the issues surrounding climate change through two different perspectives. In 2012, a track buckle derailment on the Queensland rail network costs up to $1.2million in superstructure repairs and rolling stock recovery (Simpson, 2012). ...
With more than 3,200 km of track, the Spanish high-speed rail network is the longest network in Europe and the second largest in the world after China. Due to its geographical location in southern Europe, the entire network is exposed to periods of elevated temperatures that can cause disturbances and severe disruptions such as rail deformation, or in the worst case, lateral track buckling. In this study, the vulnerability of the current Spanish high-speed rail network is analysed in terms of track buckling failures with a Monte Carlo simulation. Downscaled temperature projections from a range of Global Climate Models (GCMs), under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), were forced in a buckling model and particularized for different segments of the network. With that, the proposed methodology provides the number of rail buckles expected per year by assuming current maintenance standards and procedures. The result reveals significant increase in the occurrence of buckling events for future years, mainly in the central and southern areas of mainland Spain. However, relevant variations are found in different climates and time horizon scenarios in Spain. The anticipated buckling occurrences highlight the vulnerability of the Spanish rail network in the context of global warming scenarios. Overall, the proposed methodology is designed to be applicable in large-scale railway networks to identify potential buckling sites for the purpose of understanding and predicting their behaviour.
... As noted in relation to uranium transport in Section 4, more frequent and more intense EWEs will trigger increasingly severe and possibly detrimental impacts on the transport sector. Extremes in temperature and precipitation affect rail and road transport infrastructure: air temperatures higher than 43-45°C can lead to increasing deformities of rail tracks (thermal misalignment, track buckle) and derailment [62]. Extreme heat can soften road surfaces in general and cause rutting and bleeding of asphalt surfaces [58]. ...
nge in Argentina. It draws on many studies prepared by researchers in
Argentina and other South American countries. Preliminary documents prepared
for the Third National Communication of Argentina to the UNFCCC were also
used. Observed climate trends and regional projections of climate change have
been considered to identify the main vulnerabilities of and the potential hazards
for the electricity system.
The country level data compilation available in the disaster information
management system DesInventar [130] was used to evaluate the effects of EWEs
on the electricity system. The EWEs considered included droughts, floods,
frosts, hailstorms, heatwaves, heavy rain and snowfall, storms, thunderstorms
and wind storms. Landslides and earthquakes have also been taken into account,
although the latter are unrelated to climate or weather. The DesInventar database
compiles damage to different components of the energy system, such as dams,
distribution systems, fuel stores, gas pipelines, power plants, substations and
transmission lines.
To describe the historical and current impacts of climate factors on the
electricity system, its responses to extreme temperatures, floods, flash floods,
high winds, tornadoes and droughts were examined. The analysis contains a
description of the national electricity system and highlights the infrastructure
built in recent years.
The recent and expected evolution of climate and the main features of the
power sector in Argentina are presented in Section 8.2. Section 8.3 discusses
climate and weather related risks and summarizes the main vulnerabilities of
the Argentinian electricity system. A case study of climate change impacts and
adaptation options in hydropower generation is presented in Section 8.4, followed
by a short summary in Section 8.5.
... This has traditionally been a major focus in studies related to weather and railway traffic. A second stream of research addresses climate change and how that affects the railway system (including [7,8]). A third stream of research addresses how weather influences railway traffic performance in general. ...
The overall punctuality of the railway system is of particular importance for customers in order to use trains as a means of public transport. Investigating the drivers of low punctuality of trains is an essential step for improving their punctuality. Severe weather conditions are assumed to be one of the drivers of delays and low punctuality of the transportation system. This paper addresses the extent to which the weather factors such as temperature, snow, precipitation and wind influence the punctuality of trains on the Norwegian railways. The data for the study are collected from the passenger trains on the Nordland Line. The study period is 10 years, from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2016. Data are analysed on a daily and weekly basis, and correlation and regression analyses are used to perform the statistical analysis. The results show that extreme cold weather during the winters is a crucial influencing factor contributing to delays and low punctuality. We also found that the weather variable that best explains variations in punctuality of passenger trains on this line is snow depth.
... ageing infrastructure, underinvestment in the last decades, important evolution of technologies and mobility patterns). Several research programs have analysed climate change implications in this context (UIC 2011;EEA 2014;Baker et al. 2010;Nemry and Demirel 2012;Koetse and Rietveld 2009;Armstrong et al. 2016), often focusing on infrastructures' vulnerability. A few case-studies have been conducted at national and subnational levels, for instance in Sweden (Lindgren et al. 2009), Germany, Austria (Doll et al. 2014;Rotter et al. 2016) and the UK (RSSB 2015). ...
Future development and renewal of transport infrastructures have to take into account how the effects of climate change will affect these complex sociotechnical systems. This article aims at understanding how to raise this issue to ensure an efficient and systemic uptake of climate change by infrastructure managers. It reports the results of an in-depth case study conducted on the French railway company. This study identifies several adaptation dynamics: one is top-down and stems from climate change impacts; others are more bottom-up and focused on vulnerabilities. However, both types of approaches have, so far, yielded limited results. Building on the existing literature, this paper reveals critical bottlenecks to overcome in order to get the organization ready to adapt. It suggests key components of an enabling framework for a more proactive preparation to climate change and mainstreaming climate adaptation into major organisational decisions.
... These speed restrictions put passenger safety first, but unfortunately lead to passenger disruption and delay and cost Network Rail money in the form of compensation payments to the passenger and freight train operating companies that use the infrastructure. Several studies have considered the incidence and cost of track buckles under a future warmer climate (e.g., Baker et al. 2010;Dobney et al. 2009;Palin et al. 2013), and without targeted adaptation and/or mitigation, the costs associated with heat-related delays are projected to double in the future ; Thornes et al. 2012). ...
High temperatures and heat waves can cause numerous problems for railway infrastructure, such as track buckling, sagging of overhead lines, and the failure of electrical equipment. Without adaptation, these problems are set to increase in a future warmer climate. This study used industry fault data to examine the temporal and spatial distribution of heat-related incidents in southeast England and produce a unique evidence base of the impact of temperature on the rail network. In particular, the analysis explored the concept of failure harvesting, whereby the infrastructure system becomes increasingly resilient to temperature over the course of the summer season (April-September) as the most vulnerable assets fail with each incremental rise in temperature. The analysis supports the hypothesis and clearly shows that a greater number of heat-related incidents occur in the early/midsummer season before reducing significantly, despite equivalently high temperatures. This failure harvesting and the consequential increased resilience of the railway infrastructure system over the course of the summer season could permit an innovative and dynamic new approach to heat risk management on the railway network. New approaches that would reduce the disruption and delays and improve service are explored here.
... Conventional ballasted railway track (Fig. 1) is a structural system designed to withstand the combined damaging effects of the traffic and the environment for a predetermined period of time, so that train operating costs and passenger comfort and safety are within acceptable limits and the subgrade soil is adequately protected [1][2][3][4] The integrity of the track support system relies to a large extent on the adequate removal of water via the ballast and appropriate designed surface and sub-surface drainage [1]. This particularly so where railway track is founded on fine grained subgrade soils (such as clays and slits), since the load bearing properties of such soils is is particularly sensitive to moisture [5]. ...
Railway track subgrade failure induced by climate related softening, may lead to unplanned maintenance costs and consequential and costly train delays. The softening process can be due to the presence of water in the upper parts of the track foundation due to inadequate drainage system or poorly maintained railway track drainage. In order to better make use of scarce resources and plan railway track and associated drainage maintenance rationally it would be helpful to better understand and quantify the relationships between the causes of poor subgrade and the railway track drainage system. The understanding of railway track drainage associated failure can be further used to infer engineering knowledge into railway performance models and associated risk analysis methodologies. To this end, this paper describes the development of a fault tree analysis approach which considers the failure mode(s) for railway track subgrade. The fault chart has been developed in two stages, in the first stage, failure mechanisms are diagnosed utilizing a cause-effect diagram, and in the second stage a fault tree analysis (FTA) is performed.
... Although it is universally accepted that electric traction is more appropriate for climate change consciousness its implications in Indian conditions are little understood. As mentioned by Baker et al. the earlier climate change models do not sufficiently capture how transport is embedded in people's social and economic relationships and how they are likely to shift with changing transport provision (Baker et al., 2010). Our research tries to address these aspects in the Indian Railway scenario. ...
The transport sector is a major contributor of carbon emissions in India. As railways are the most environment-friendly mode of transport we look at the spearheading role of Indian Railway (IR) in bringing about the modal shift from road and airways to rail with a holistic perspective considering India's development stage and resource situation. India being an emerging economy, faces many other social and developmental challenges, which have to be incorporated in assessing the viability of the solutions. In order to assess the total impact of the transportation sector a 'wells to wheels' approach needs to be adopted to quantify the emissions from the production to distribution and final usages alongside its impact to the competing societal goals utilizing the same resources. This study focuses on evaluating IR's critical policy decision towards providing efficient transport i.e. the choice of traction. It is inferred that until such time the fuel mix of power production in India remains the same, i.e. coal dominated and there is a shortage of electricity in the country, the accumulated carbon footprints of running electric locos will be higher. There should be a judicious mix of both the tractions to achieve a balance in environmental efficacy, sustainability and equity.
... Rail systems that struggle to cope with existing climate variability may require considerable investment to withstand higher temperatures and more extreme events (see Baker et al., 2010). Railway systems may be more vulnerable to climate variability than the road system, which can more easily redirect traffic (Lindgren et al., 2009). ...
... In the practical application, as track circuits must be laid along the rails and the length of one track circuit is about 1∼2 kilometers, the application scope of track circuits is quite large. And due to the special structure and complex working environment, track circuits are easily affected by temperature, humidity, ballast resistance, electromagnetic interference, and mechanical vibration, which results in a high fault rate of track circuit [1][2][3][4]. As a result of the above two aspects, the loss caused by faults of track circuits is very huge. ...
Aiming at the problem of online fault diagnosis for compensating capacitors of jointless track circuit, a dynamic time warping (DTW) based diagnosis method is proposed in this paper. Different from the existing related works, this method only uses the ground indoor monitoring signals of track circuit to locate the faulty compensating capacitor, not depending on the shunt current of inspection train, which is an indispensable condition for existing methods. So, it can be used for online diagnosis of compensating capacitor, which has not yet been realized by existing methods. To overcome the key problem that track circuit cannot obtain the precise position of the train, the DTW method is used for the first time in this situation to recover the function relationship between receiver’s peak voltage and shunt position. The necessity, thinking, and procedure of the method are described in detail. Besides the classical DTW based method, two improved methods for improving classification quality and reducing computation complexity are proposed. Finally, the diagnosis experiments based on the simulation model of track circuit show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.
... The latest review of high summer temperatures due to climate change on buckling and rail related delays in the south-east Kingdom is provided by the FUTURE-NET project (K. Dobney, C. J. Baker, A. D. Quinn and L. Chapman, 2009). Estimates have shown that 20% of all unplanned delays on the UK rail network are the cause of present day adverse weather conditions. ...
... According to the IPCC, increased mean and extreme temperatures are among the most certain changes expected (Meehl et al., 2007b). More frequent periods of excessive heat could have significant and costly impacts on land transport infrastructure, such as compromised pavement integrity (Mills et al., 2007), deformation of rail lines (Rossetti, 2002;Dobney et al., 2009;Baker et al., 2010), and thermal expansion of bridge joints (TRB, 2008). In the winter months, however, warming temperatures will likely result in reduced winter maintenance (i.e., deicing and snow removal) costs . ...
... Due to the projected impacts of climate change, planning for seaport resilience has recently emerged as a unique area of resilience research EPA, 2008;, in addition to a variety of other infrastructure sectors such as roads (NRA, 2012), airports (Baglin, 2012), railways (Baker, Chapman, Quinn, & Dobney, 2010), and infrastructure as a general concern (NIAC, 2009). A new body of work has begun to address a need to shift planning paradigms to include a range of incentives and more stakeholders in the process of creating more resilient ports Ng, Chen, Cahoon, Brooks, & Yang). ...
A growing body of research indicates that climate change is having and will continue to have a range of negative impacts on social–environmental systems. Reducing the vulnerability and increasing the resilience of these systems has thus becomes a focus of research, disaster planning, and policy-making. Seaports, located in environmentally sensitive, high-risk locations, are particularly vulnerable to severe storms and the increased sea levels resulting from such climate changes. Planning and policy making must therefore consider the human factor, that is the population potentially vulnerable to climate change induced events and also the complex network of stakeholders that depend on their functionality. An increasing body of literature suggests that, for planners to be effective in increasing resiliency of social-environmental systems to climate change-related events and other hazards, they must understand and incorporate the perceptions and concerns of the stakeholders in their assessment and planning processes. This study uses empirical evidence collected through case studies of two particularly exposed ports: Gulfport (MS) and Providence (RI), in order to examine how port stakeholders such as port operators, municipal planners, port tenants, coastal managers, perceive storm impacts and the seaport's vulnerability, and how their planning and policy making address these perceived concerns. Results suggest the following: (1) Port stakeholders of Gulfport (MS) and Providence (RI) identified a wide range of direct damages, indirect costs, and intangible consequences of a hurricane hitting the port; (2) these impacts would result in costs that would be borne by all port stakeholders as well as society as a whole; and (3) in Providence and Gulfport, plans and policies that address storm resilience for the ports did not include the concerns of many stakeholders.
... Rail systems that struggle to cope with existing climate variability may require considerable investment to withstand higher temperatures and more extreme events (see Baker et al., 2010). Railway systems may be more vulnerable to climate variability than the road system, which can more easily redirect traffic (Lindgren et al., 2009). ...
can be downloaded at http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/final-drafts/
... Several research projects have already tried to reveal the influence of climate change on infrastructure networks (e.g. Chinowsky et al. 2011, Leviäkangas et al. 2011, Enei et al. 2010, Papanikolau et al. 2011, Koetse & Rietveld, 2009Dobney et al., 2009Dobney et al., & 2010Baker et al. 2010;Bles et al., 2010). These studies suggest that climate change will modify the risk of weather-induced impacts on infrastructure which challenge design rules and procedures for the operation and maintenance of infrastructure. ...
Although it has been known for a while that climate-related factors account for the performance development of infrastructure, it remains difficult for infrastructure manager to estimate the effect of the anticipated climate change. The impact of climate factors differs very much between geographical locations and therefore a climate change assessment requires a more detailed analysis of the particular network. In this paper data about actual infrastructure performance of two railway tracks in the mostly populated area of the Netherlands are correlated with regional climate data in order to model future performance and apply appropriate interventions to cope with climate change effects. After establishing the correlation between weather conditions and failure modes, threshold values for probabilities of occurrence of certain failures are determined. This is enabling then the development of risk matrix based on the likelihood and risk impact, which would support an effective maintenance plan and adaptation strategies in the long term sense to mitigate or reduce likelihood of failures caused by climate change.
... As an initial phase in this work, a series of workshops involving the Met Office and industry experts constructed a list of areas of concern where weather affects the rail industry, and therefore where climate change could also be an issue (RSSB 2010). Many of these are well-known to the industry (RSSB 2003) and academic partners alike; a recent review (Baker et al. 2010) discussed qualitatively the potential changes in impacts related to temperature, rainfall, sea level rise and storminess, with reference to the UKCIP02 climate projections. The temperature-related impacts included track buckling, earthworks desiccation and changes in demand for heating/cooling on board trains. ...
Great Britain’s main line railway network is known to experience various temperature-related impacts, e.g. track buckling and overhead power line sag at high ambient temperatures. Climate change could alter the frequency of occurrence of these impacts. We have therefore investigated the climate change impact on various temperature-related issues, identified during workshops with rail industry specialists, using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) of the Met Office’s regional climate model (RCM), HadRM3. We have developed novel approaches to combine RCM data with railway industry knowledge, typically by identifying key meteorological thresholds of interest and analysing exceedance of these out to the 2040s. We performed a statistical analysis of the projected changes for each issue, via bootstrapping of the unperturbed PPE member. Although neither the PPE nor the bootstrapping analysis samples the full range of uncertainty in the projections, they nonetheless provide complementary perspectives on the suitability of the projections for use in decision-making. Our main findings include projected increases in the summertime occurrence of temperature conditions associated with (i) track buckling, (ii) overhead power line sag, (iii) exposure of outdoor workers to heat stress, and (iv) heat-related delays to track maintenance; and (v) projected decreases in the wintertime occurrence of temperatures conditions associated with freight train failure owing to brake problems. For (i), the statistical significance varied with track condition and location; for (ii) and (iii), with location; and for (iv) and (v), projected changes were significant across Great Britain. As well as assessing the changes in climate-related hazard, information about the vulnerability of the network to past temperature-related incidents has been summarised. Combining the hazard and vulnerability elements will eventually support a climate risk assessment for the industry.
Storms (thunderstorms or windstorms) are common meteorological phenomena in Europe. They produce rain, lightning, strong winds or hail and are capable of causing serious failures in rail transport. We identified 14,786 incidents associated with storms, which took place on the Czech rail network between 2002 and 2021. This represented 5% of all reported rail incidents in Czechia over the monitored period. Using the exact binomial test and a grid covering each combination of month and hour, we found that these incidents were concentrated between May and August in the early morning and afternoon hours. Most of the rail problems were concentrated on only a small number of days, indicating the significant impact of severe storms. The incidents (82%) were associated with rail device failures and/or power outages, such as malfunctions of switches, signals or communication and safety devices. In addition, tree falls on rail infrastructure were also common. The total train delay time exceeded 3917 h, and in some cases rail traffic was even completely disrupted. Based on the findings, which provide unique insight into the impacts of storms on railways, mitigation measures are discussed. This is particularly important given climate change, which may lead to an increased likelihood of severe weather and associated damage in the future.
Impact of climate change on railway transport manifests in a variety of consequences, such as rail buckling, rail flooding, expansion of swing bridges, overheating of electrical equipment and its damage, bridge scour, failure of earthworks, ground settlement, pavement deterioration, damage to sea walls, coastal erosion of tracks and earthworks, and an increased number of railway accidents in general. Such impacts can cause considerable disruption of railway operations and lead to substantial financial expenses for repair of the railway infrastructure. Therefore, it is crucial to include adaptation strategies already in the design phase of the railway construction to ensure stability and integrity of the railway operations. This paper provides a literature review of adaptation considerations in Canada, China and Sweden and discusses climate change challenges that these countries face in their railway systems. In conclusion, the authors provide recommendations for adaptation approaches based on the reviewed international experience which can be useful for policymakers and managers of railway companies.
Increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather conditions caused by climate change can have a negative impact on rail service performance and also increases total ownership costs. Research has shown that adverse weather conditions are responsible for 5 to 10 % of total failures and 60 % of delays on the railway infrastructure in Sweden. The impact of short-term and long-term effects of climate change and extreme weather events depends on the design characteristics of the railway assets, geographical location, operational profile, maturity of the climate adaptation, etc. These extreme events will have major consequences such as traffic disruption, accidents, and higher maintenance costs during the operation and maintenance (O&M) phase. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the effects of climate change on the O&M phase requires a more comprehensive review of the previous studies reported from different parts of the world. The paper provides a state-of-the-art review of the effects of extreme weather events and their impacts on the operation and maintenance of railway infrastructure. This paper also provides a list of vulnerable railway assets that can have an impact due to extreme weather events.
In the past, fires around railways were often associated with steam locomotives. Although steam locomotives have disappeared from everyday rail traffic, fires still occur. A vegetation fire near Bzenec (Czech Republic) on 21 June 2018 affected, for example, 124,110 m2 of forest and grassland. The investigation revealed that the fire was caused by a spark from a passing train. In this study, we analyzed vegetation fires that occurred near Czech railway lines between 2011 and 2019 to investigate their temporal pattern and relation to weather conditions or to identify the most hazardous locations.
Fires were concentrated mainly between March and August in the afternoon. They are also more likely to occur during periods of high air temperature, low rainfall, low relative air humidity, and low wind speed. Using the KDE+ method, we identified 186 hotspots, which contained 510 vegetation fires and represented only 0.3% of the length of the entire Czech rail network. Spatial analysis revealed that there are more than 4 times higher odds that a vegetation fire occurs near an electrified railway line than near a non-electrified line or that additional 10 freight trains per 24 h increases the odds by 5%.
As the results show, vegetation fires near railway lines are still relatively common phenomenon, mainly due to favorable weather conditions. Grassy areas with dry or dead vegetation are particularly at risk. These areas can be ignited, for example, by sparks from the brakes of railway vehicles. Due to global warming, vegetation fires can be expected to occur more frequently in the future. The identified hotspots can thus be used to reduce the risk of fires, for example by managing the surrounding vegetation.
Railway infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events such as elevated temperature, flooding, storms, intense winds, sea level rise, poor visibility, etc. These events have extreme consequences for the dependability of railway infrastructure and the acceptable level of services by infrastructure managers and other stakeholders. It is quite complex and difficult to quantify the consequences of climate change on railway infrastructure because of the inherent nature of the railway itself. Hence, the main aim of this work is to qualitatively identify and assess the impact of climate change on railway infrastructure with associated risks and consequences. A qualitative research methodology is employed in the study using a questionnaire as a tool for information gathering from experts from several municipalities in Sweden, Swedish transport infrastructure managers, maintenance organizations, and train operators. The outcome of this questionnaire revealed that there was a lower level of awareness about the impact of climate change on the various facets of railway infrastructure. Furthermore, the work identifies the challenges and barriers for climate adaptation of railway infrastructure and suggests recommended actions to improve the resilience towards climate change. It also provides recommendations, including adaptation options to ensure an effective and efficient railway transport service.
Rail transport is expanding, with a global increase in infrastructure of up to one-third predicted by 2050. Greater reliance on rail is expected to benefit the environment at a planetary level, by mitigating transport-related carbon emissions. However, smaller-scale, more direct consequences for wildlife are unclear, as unlike roads, railway impacts on animal ecology are rarely studied. As a group, bats frequently interact with transport networks due to their broad distribution and landscape-scale movements. Additionally, their nocturnality, and use of echolocation mean bats are likely to be affected by light and noise emitted by trains. To investigate whether passing trains affect bat activity levels, we monitored the two most abundant UK species using ultrasonic detectors at 12 wooded rail-side sites in southern England. Activity fell by ≥ 30–50% each time a train passed, for at least two minutes. Consequently, activity was reduced for no less than one-fifth of the time at sites with median rail traffic, and two-thirds or more of the time at the busiest site. Such activity changes imply repeated evasive action and/or exclusion from otherwise favourable environments, with potential for corresponding opportunity or energetic costs. Hence, disturbance by passing trains may disadvantage bats in most rail-side habitats.
El cambio climático y el previsible aumento de los fenómenos climáticos extremos, tales como olas de calor o lluvias torrenciales, supone un gran desafío para la sociedad en su conjunto y para los medios de transporte en particular. El ferrocarril, cuya infraestructura se extiende por todo el territorio, debe afrontar dicho desafío y adaptarse a su entorno para mantener su sostenibilidad y fiabilidad en el futuro.
En este contexto, y como parte del proyecto de investigación MINFECLIMA (fruto de la colaboración entre AZVI, S.A.U. y SIER en el marco de una Convocatoria de Cooperación Internacional, con financiación del CDTI proveniente del Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades), se pretende monitorizar ciertos aparatos de vía especialmente críticos y vulnerables (como pueden ser desvíos o aparatos de dilatación) mediante sensores in situ, buscando un sistema sencillo que sea capaz de recopilar y transmitir datos regularmente. Entre otros, se pretende recoger información sobre temperaturas en carril y desplazamientos.
Posteriormente, estos datos se podrán analizar para evaluar el comportamiento de dichos puntos críticos de la infraestructura ferroviaria, y determinar su posible vulnerabilidad frente a fenómenos extremos que se prevén más adversos y habituales en el futuro. En última instancia, se pretende contribuir a lograr un ferrocarril más resiliente y fiable.
As a result of its low environmental impact the railway system is the prime candidate to enable domestic and continental mass passenger mobility. One important aspect determining the attractiveness of rail journeys is the thermal comfort that is provided in a passenger rail car. Newer approaches focusing on the improvement of thermal comfort in passenger rail cars are based on the idea to employ personalized comfort zones. It is generally assumed that individual control over indoor climate settings contributes to the passengers’ thermal comfort. The studies presented here further examine this assumption by considering the concept “thermo-specific self-efficacy” (specSE) as psychological construct in the context of thermal comfort in a railway car. Two studies with 11 human subject test runs including 172 subjects in total were performed in a mock-up of a passenger rail car. Environmental climate conditions in the mock-up were controlled and measured. It was found that specSE can be considered as a distinct construct and that it contributed substantially to the prediction of thermal comfort and climate satisfaction. In addition, it moderated the effects of available and exercised control. The presented results expand upon earlier findings for the concept of personal control and confirm the role of specSE for thermal comfort predictions.
This article considers various aspects of the impact of climate change on the railway infrastructure and operations. A brief international overview and the importance of this issue for Russia are given. Temperature effects, permafrost thawing, strong winds, floods and sea level rise, long-term effects, and adaptation measures are discussed. In conclusion, the authors give several recommendations on further research in this area, and highlight that special attention should be given to the areas in the Russian Federation which already face or might soon experience damage from storm events or flooding and sea level rise, namely Kaliningrad Region on the Baltic Sea, the area between Tuapse and Adler in Krasnodar Region on the Black Sea, and on Sakhalin Island from the side of the Sea of Japan.
Infrastructure systems are developed in a highly interdependent and interconnected way at multiple levels. There is a need to consider infrastructure interdependencies for adaptation in the event of future challenges (e.g. climate change) as well as for proactive risk management strategies and other future decision makings. However, academic literature reveals a gap of knowledge about some dependencies that exist between technical infrastructure systems. Railways, as complex systems, have a large number of dependencies. In this thesis the interdependencies between the different railway sub-systems and other infrastructure systems have been studied. The existing literature in this subject has been thoroughly reviewed and it has been found that the dependencies at a sector level and a technical environment have not received enough attention and that there are many poorly understood dependencies. In this thesis two scenarios of dependencies related to railways have been investigated. The first scenario concerns the dependency that exists between electricity generation (power output) and freight railway traffic and was investigated using data related to sectors and time-series analysis. The second investigation was carried out to evaluate the dependency that exists between railways and urban water distribution systems in the event of track flooding caused by a water main burst. As a part of these analyses, a novel modelling and simulation technique has been developed. Hydraulic and numerical simulations have been used to quantify the dependencies which have been highlighted qualitatively by stakeholders and experts. Unlike in the previous research in this field, for which usually the availability of the simulation tool dictates the interdependency analysis, the model and simulation techniques used for this work have been developed based on the requirement of the dependency scenarios. It is concluded that, by adapting a participatory modelling approach, scenario-based case studies can provide valuable insight into poorly understood infrastructure dependencies.
This article analyses the gap between scientific discourses on climate change which aims at generating momentum for ambitious adaptation and the reality of their consideration in the management of large infrastructure networks. Based on a detailed case study of a section of the railway system in Southern France exposed to multiple climate hazards, it first describes where and how the question of climate change is raised, from long-term mega-projects to daily exploitation issues. This work highlights a true uptake of ongoing changes through a form of adaptation which is incremental more than transformative. The second section of the article questions this approach considering both the properties of a changing climate (uncertainties and variability) and the current context of the railway sector, facing major other challenges (ex.: liberalization, renewal). The article shows how adaptation as we can observe it today, is the outcome of the interactions between scientific discourse and the complex reality of organizations.
Climate projections suggest that the UK will be increasingly affected by climate-induced hazards in the future, exacerbating the potential for multihazard events to occur. This paper explores the extent to which climate resilience is being embedded in current and future rail transport infrastructure projects in London through use of a multihazard approach. It concludes that a multihazard approach is a relatively new concept and is therefore not currently being considered widely. However, opportunities for decision makers to explore its value to mitigate climate risks through collaborative working and further research exist – this paper recommends that two main stages are required to achieve this. Route 1 requires climate/hazard experts to identify and characterise the different hazard interactions that could occur, including their impact on the UK/London. Following this, route 2 involves the creation of multidisciplinary workshops to identify any multihazard vulnerabilities associated with different rail assets – potentially highlighting areas where further research is required. The paper concludes that although a London rail context has been adopted in order to understand the relevance of a multihazard approach, there is opportunity for it to be considered across many different sectors in the UK and the wider civil engineering industry.
Greenhouse gases produced by human activities are widely accepted to be warming the earth and causing an immediate and observable global impact. This has led to the need for different industry sectors to investigate how climate change will impact their interests. In this context this research looks into what is being done in Japan in the cultural heritage sector through a case study of Itsukushima Shrine. Itsukushima Shrine is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, located on Miyajima Island in Hiroshima Prefecture. Since 1963, tide gauge data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that sea levels in the region have been rising and causing an increase in flooding events at the site. This rise mirrors a global increase in sea levels, with many researchers arguing it is a direct result of global warming. Research into global warming and its impacts upon climate systems over the next century strongly suggest that global sea levels will continue to rise. This paper makes use of examples from the United Kingdom to identify ways in which the situation in Japan can be improved. In the UK the cultural heritage industry and researchers have actively sought to investigate, mitigate and adapt to potential threats posed by climate change. Those efforts are helped in part through Government-funded climate change information dissemination and education. This paper details how different sectors are embracing this freely available information to mitigate the impact of climate change on their own interests. Finally, recommendations are made based on the findings from the Itsukushima Shrine case study and also through a detailed appraisal of the UK’s approach. These recommendations are applicable to organizations and cultural heritage sites across Japan and would also benefit other sectors.
Large-scale infrastructure networks are vulnerable to climate change. Their operation involves public and private actors under complex legislative and market regulations. We analyze climate adaptation of railway infrastructure, based on an in-depth case study of the German railway system. The case includes a unique set of qualitative interviews with key players of operating and regulative organizations, as well as a document study. Our analysis crucially extends previous technology-oriented research on the railway sector by applying core insights and categories from the actor-centered institutionalism. We trace observed obstacles for a climate resilient railway system and adaptation decisions back to deeper causes, in particular political priorities and values. Moreover, diverging perceptions and the competition among different actors hamper adaptation. On the other hand, single actors who display a great willingness to act are able to make use of unclear responsibilities to integrate adaptation concerns into existing institutions. Our research suggests that changes in technical standards and in economic regulation support adaptation of infrastructure systems.
The assessment of the potential impact of climate change on transport is an area of research very much in its infancy, and one that requires input from a multitude of disciplines including geography, engineering and technology, meteorology, climatology and futures studies. This paper investigates the current state of the art for assessments on urban surface transport, where rising populations and increasing dependence on efficient and reliable mobility have increased the importance placed on resilience to weather. The standard structure of climate change impact assessment (CIA) requires understanding in three important areas: how weather currently affects infrastructure and operations; how climate change may alter the frequency and magnitude of these impacts; and how concurrent technological and socio-economic development may shape the transport network of the future, either ameliorating or exacerbating the effects of climate change. The extent to which the requisite knowledge exists for a successful CIA is observed to decrease from the former to the latter. This paper traces a number of developments in the extrapolation of physical and behavioural relationships on to future climates, including a broad move away from previous deterministic methods and towards probabilistic projections which make use of a much broader range of climate change model output, giving a better representation of the uncertainty involved. Studies increasingly demand spatially and temporally downscaled climate projections that can represent realistic sub-daily fluctuations in weather that transport systems are sensitive to. It is recommended that future climate change impact assessments should focus on several key areas, including better representation of sub-daily extremes in climate tools, and recreation of realistic spatially coherent weather. Greater use of the increasing amounts of data created and captured by ‘intelligent infrastructure’ and ‘smart cities’ is also needed to develop behavioural and physical models of the response of transport to weather and to develop a better understanding of how stakeholders respond to probabilistic climate change impact projections.
Thermal loads can cause significant stresses in some structures such as bridges or arch dams. Studies in arch dams show that thermal loads have the most significant effect for causing cracking than other service loads. Moreover, since researches on climate change announce that mean temperature on Earth is expected to increase, the assessment of the impact of the future temperature increase on the structural behaviour of sensitive infrastructures should be considered. This paper proposes a methodology for the assessment of the impacts of global warming on the structural behaviour of infrastructures. The paper links future climate scenarios to the thermal, stress and displacement fields of the structure. The methodology is illustrated with a case study: La Baells arch-dam. The expected stress and displacement fields of the dam under several future climatic scenarios were computed by finite element models. Concrete temperature are expected to increase up to 5.6 K, which will make annual average radial displacements increase in some cases even more than 100%. Tensile stresses are also projected to change and should be adequately monitored in the future. Finally, several adaptation strategies are outlined.
The elevated risk of collision while driving during precipitation has been well documented by the road safety community, with heavy rainfall events of particular concern. As the climate warms in the coming century, altered precipitation patterns are likely. The current study builds on the extensive literature on weather-related driving risks and draws on the climate change impact literature in order to explore the implications of climate change for road safety. It presents both an approach for conducting such analyses, as well as empirical estimates of the direction and magnitude of change in road safety for the highly urbanized Greater Vancouver metropolitan region on Canada’s west coast. The signal that emerges from the analysis is that projections of greater rainfall frequency are expected to translate into higher collision counts by the mid 2050s. The greatest adverse safety impact is likely to be concentrated on moderate to heavy rainfall days (≥ 10 mm), which are associated with more highly elevated risks today. This suggests that particular attention should be paid to future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.
The country reports were written by a range of climate researchers, chosen for their subject expertise, who were drawn from institutes across the UK. Authors from the Met Office and the University of Nottingham collated the contributions in to a coherent narrative which was then reviewed. The authors and contributors of the reports are as above.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/policy-relevant/obs-projections-impacts
Although it has been known for a while that climate-related factors account for the performance development of infrastructure, it remains difficult for infrastructure manager to estimate the effect of the anticipated climate change. The impact of climate factors differs very much between geographical locations and therefore a climate change assessment requires a more detailed analysis of the particular network. In this paper data about actual infrastructure performance of two railway tracks in the Netherlands are correlated with regional climate data in order to model future performance and apply appropriate interventions to cope with climate change effects. The analysis revealed an opposite climate change effect. In winter time the number of incidents will decrease whereas in the summer time the number of incidents will increase. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012
The potential impacts of climate change (CC) on Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) have been studied a little in tropical countries, while they received no attention in northern industrialized countries with a temperate climate. This work aimed to establish an overview of the potential links between CC and OHS in those countries and to determine research priorities for Quebec, Canada. A narrative review of the scientific literature (2005-2010) was presented to a working group of international and national experts and stakeholders during a workshop held in 2010. The working group was invited to identify knowledge gaps, and a modified Delphi method helped prioritize research avenues. This process highlighted five categories of hazards that are likely to impact OHS in northern industrialized countries: heat waves/increased temperatures, air pollutants, UV radiation, extreme weather events, vector-borne/zoonotic diseases. These hazards will affect working activities related to natural resources (i.e. agriculture, fishing and forestry) and may influence the socioeconomic context (built environment and green industries), thus indirectly modifying OHS. From this consensus approach, three categories of research were identified: 1) Knowledge acquisition on hazards, target populations and methods of adaptation; 2) Surveillance of diseases/accidents/occupational hazards; and 3) Development of new occupational adaptation strategies.
Atmospheric chemistry and climate modellers require gridded global emissions data as input into their models. To meet this urgent need a global emissions source database called EDGAR is being developed by TNO and RIVM to estimate for 1990, on a regional and on a grid basis, annual emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, NOx, non-methane VOC, SOx), of NH3, and of ozone depleting compounds (halocarbons) from all known sources. The aim is to establish at due levels of spatial, temporal and source aggregation the emissions from both anthropogenic and biogenic sources: a complete set of data required to estimate the total source strength of the various gases with a 1×1 ° resolution (altitude resolution of 1 km) and a temporal resolution of a month, supplemented by diurnal variation, as agreed upon in the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) of the International Atmospheric Chemistry Programme (IGAC). In this way EDGAR will meet the requirements of present and future developments in the field of atmospheric modelling. The data comprise demographic data, social and economic factors, land use distributions and emission factors (with due emphasis on the uncertainty). As understanding in this field is still changing, due attention is paid to flexibility regarding the disaggregation of sources, spatial and temporal resolution and species. The objective and methodology chosen for the construction of the database and the structural design of the database system are presented, as well as the type and sources of data and the approach used for data collection. As an example, the construction of the N2O inventory is discussed.
The static crosswind displacements of a high speed pantograph and contact wire are studied. The aim is to assess the overall pantograp h sway in crosswinds based on the relative movements of the pantograph and contact wire, takin g into account the crosswind deflection of the train body. The pantograph and wire deflecti ons are derived from simplified models of such structures, whereas train body displacements a re computed via Vampire. A spectral approach is used to simulate the turbulent crosswin d, which is then used with aerodynamic admittance function to obtain unsteady crosswind lo ading. Analysis of data shows negligible crosswind deflections of the pantograph itself in t he range of few millimeters, but train body and wire deflections are much larger. It is shown t hat crosswinds may cause the pantograph sway to exceed prescribed limits for some combinati ons of wind gust and track conditions.
The definition of a good indoor climate is important to the success of a passenger rail coach, not only because it will decide its energy consumption and thus influence its sustainability but also because good comfort for long journeys is essential. A survey in a coach investigating the thermal and air quality environment was undertaken. The intention is to use the results to optimise the control of the ventilation system to provide an indoor climate that passengers will find comfortable. Field surveys were carried out in long–haul rail sleeper cars in China under real travelling conditions. In this study, seven main parameters were surveyed, including thermal comfort, relative humidity, air quality level, clothing, and environmental preference, etc. Returned questionnaires, 91 in total, reported responses to the environment within the coach. The majority of subjects reported that the air quality in the coach was average or good, and most of them voted the air environment to be acceptable. Most passengers could smell some odour in the coach, but it was not strong. The results of this study show that outdoor air ventilation, temperature, humidity and clothing are major factors that influence passengers’ thermal comfort.
Experience in various parts of the world has shown that trains may overturn in very high winds. The aerodynamic forces on trains in cross-winds and other factors affecting overturning are discussed. A procedure for estimating the probability of overturning per year for fleet operation of trains over a particular route is described. Most of the probability is predicted to come from a small length of track on embankments in coastal locations or in hilly country. The computation is very sensitive to errors in the parameters that describe the exposure of the sites, so the value of the total probability is only approximate.
Natural disasters attacking railroad tracks are increasing in number while climate changes bring much precipitation. They can be predicted a long term prior to the event when a ground disaster comes up. This advantage has been realized with the use of chemical sensors unprecedented in this field.
Structures have to be designed to withstand the worst gust load expected with some specified low probability. This conventionally depends on an extreme value analysis of severe gusts or mean winds. Gust sensitive vehicles must be operated to avoid, with some specified high probability, the conditions in which destabilising gusts can occur. This can depend on extreme value analysis of gust factors and analysis of joint probabilities of gust factors with mean winds. Both types of analysis were required by Eurotunel during the design and development of its wind fences and meteorological alert systems. This has given the opportunity to predict extreme gusts by both types of analysis. Consideration of the results shows that while high gust speeds are usually associated with high mean wind speeds which are typically observed during the passing of depressions, the probability of exceeding a specified gust during a period of relatively low windspeed cannot always be ignored. The practical application of the joint probability analysis to determine mean wind operating thresholds for gust sensitive vehicles is also explained.
This work presents aerodynamic results of crosswind stability obtained numerically and experimentally for the leading control unit (class 808) of Deutsche Bahn AG's high-speed train Inter-CityExpress 2. The train model is on top of a 6m high embankment in accordance with the proposed European code for interoperable trains, the so-called technical specifications for interoperability. The purpose of the study is to convey the predictive accuracy that typical steady-state computational fluid dynamics-Reynolds average Navier-Stokes methods (industry standard) return and to contribute to the understanding of the aerodynamics for the current application.
Attention is drawn to the aerodynamics around the train and embankment when subjected to a steady block profile crosswind of 30° yaw angle on the basis of the onset velocity far upstream the embankment. The Re (Reynolds number) of the embankment cases is 4.6 × 10 ⁶ . Calculated results are obtained with the commercial code STAR-CD, with exclusively hexahedral meshes with a total cell count of 13.5 × 10 ⁶ . Results are obtained when the train stands on the windward and leeward tracks on top of the embankment. These results are first compared with a flat ground case from a previous study.
Then experimental data are obtained in a high-pressure wind tunnel with a model scale of 1:100. Re effects are compensated by raising the ambient pressure by a factor of 60, which increases the air density and thus the Re by a similar factor. Calculated results are in fair agreement with the experiments, where both the calculations and the experiments predict the leeward case to be the more critical one.
In addition, the related consequences on the mechanical behaviour, i.e. the stability of the car, are briefly addressed by means of a quasi-static mechanical analysis. The results of the present study indicate that the 6m high embankment concerning the current train reduces the permissible crosswind speed with approximately 20 per cent.
This paper presents a mathematical analysis of the equations of debris flight. In particular the two-dimensional motions of two types of debris are considered—compact and sheet debris. The equations of motion for debris flight are derived in a generalised dimensionless form that reveals the fundamental controlling parameters of the problem. Simplified forms of the equations are then derived for compact and sheet debris, and the large time asymptotic solutions derived for velocities and energies. Numerical solutions of the equations of motion are presented for a range of the controlling dimensionless parameters that are typical of full-scale conditions. The results are compared as far as possible with experimental data. The results for compact debris are well defined and the predicted dimensionless velocities and trajectories are a function of a single dimensionless parameter. For the sheet debris, however, the situation is much more complex, and the results show a level of sensitivity to boundary conditions and the values of the controlling parameters that is typical of chaotic systems. For such objects debris flight can take a number of forms with clockwise, anti-clockwise or no rotation taking place. The resulting dimensionless trajectories and velocities are widely spread. The effect of simulating atmospheric turbulence on the flight of both types of object was also considered, and it was shown that if the gust wind speed during the course of the debris flight is used as the normalising velocity, the variations in trajectory, although noticeable, are not particularly large. A discussion of how this analysis could be used in the design process is then presented, conclusions are drawn and suggestions made for further work.
The results of full-scale and wind tunnel experiments to measure the cross wind time averaged and unsteady forces and moments on trains are presented. The results demonstrate good agreement between the two sets of experiments but also illustrate the need for care in simulating local roughness effects in the wind tunnel simulation. It is also shown that quasi-steady effects need to be taken into account when calculating force and moment aerodynamic admittances. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This paper describes the methodology for safety assessment related to the risk of a train overturning in strong cross-winds. As an example, this methodology is applied on the high-speed line Botniabanan being built for a maximum speed of 250 km/h in the northeast coastal region of Sweden. The process starts with a systematic identification of locations along the line having a potential high risk of overturning due to cross-winds. This is followed by a cross-disciplinary study. The first step is to estimate the probabilities of wind velocity and wind directions. The next step is aerodynamic computation of overturning forces and moments acting on relevant types of train. Further, the critical overturning wind velocity is determined by a multi-body simulation technique. Finally, the overturning accident frequency is calculated. The calculated risk is compared with generally accepted risk levels in modern train operation.
There is much discussion about the contribution of transport to global warming, but what about the impact of our changing climate on transport modes, infrastructure and passengers? This paper examines the potential impacts of climate change on London's transport systems, based on the findings of a research study undertaken for the London Climate Change Partnership between 2004 and 2005. Recent extreme weather events have had significant impact on London's transport systems; for example, the effect of high temperatures on London Underground and major flooding of roads and railway stations. Scenarios of climate change show that London will experience hotter summers, wetter winters, more intense rainfall and a rise in sea level over the coming century. This poses a number of risks to the operation and use of transport systems in a city where 26 million trips are made every day. The study focuses on four case studies. Each case study assesses: the issue now, drawing on current weather-related effects; how climate change will affect the future; the action already underway in London to address climate impacts; and options and timescales for adaptation. It is apparent that most risks already exist - climate change will simply make them worse. With forward planning, successful and cost-effective adaptation can be achieved.
Extreme high temperatures are associated with increased incidences of rail buckles. Climate change is predicted to alter the temperature profile in the United Kingdom with extreme high temperatures becoming an increasingly frequent occurrence. The result is that the number of buckles, and therefore delays, expected per year will increase if the track is maintained to the current standard. This paper uses a combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator to quantify the increase in the number of buckles and rail related delays in the south-east of the United Kingdom. The paper concludes by assigning a cost to the resultant rise in delays and damage before making recommendations on how these effects can be mitigated. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
To meet the urgent need of atmospheric chemistry and climate modellers a global emissions source database called EDGAR has been developed jointly by TNO and RIVM to estimate for 1990, on a regional and on a grid basis, annual emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, NOx, non-methane VOC, SOx), of NH3, and of ozone depleting compounds (halocarbons). The aim was to establish the global emissions from both anthropogenic and biogenic sources: a complete set of data required to estimate the total source strength of the various gases with an 1o×1o resolution (altitude resolution of 1 km), as agreed upon in the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) of the International Atmospheric Chemistry Programme (IGAC). The data comprise demographic data, social and economic factors, land use distributions and emission factors (with due emphasis on the uncertainty). As understanding in this field is still changing, due attention is paid to flexibility regarding the disaggregation of sources, spatial and temporal resolution and species. The objective and methodology chosen for the construction of the database are presented, as well as the type and sources of data and the approach used for data collection. As an example, the construction of the N2O inventory is discussed.
Railways are expected to operate with ever increasing levels of availability, reliability, safety and security. One way of ensuring high levels of dependability is through the use of condition monitoring systems. This paper presents the results of research on fault detection and diagnosis methods for railway track circuits. The proposed method uses a hybrid quantitative/qualitative technique known as a neuro-fuzzy system. Such a hybrid fault detection and diagnosis system combines the benefits of both fuzzy logic and neural networks, i.e. the ability to deal with system imprecision and to learn by neural network training processes. It is shown that the proposed method correctly detects and diagnoses the most commonly occurring track circuit failures in a laboratory test rig of one type of audio frequency jointless track circuit.
There has long been a question as to whether crowding in rail passenger transport poses a threat to passenger health related to the experience of stress. A review of the scientific literature was conducted. Little rail-specific empirical research was identified. The more general research that does exist suggests that high-density environments are not necessarily perceived as crowded and that stress-related physiological, psychological and behavioural reactions do not necessarily follow from exposure to such environments. Several factors are identified that may moderate the impact of a high-density environment on perceptions of crowding and the subsequent experience and effects of stress. These include, inter alia, perceptions of control and predictability of events. However, if caused, the experience and effects of stress may be made worse by inadequate coach design that gives rise to discomfort. The model that emerges from these findings offers a suitable framework for the development of research questions that should help translate emerging knowledge into practical interventions, for the reduction of any adverse health outcomes associated with crowding.
This paper describes the development of a weather generator for use in climate impact assessments of agricultural and water system management. The generator produces internally consistent series of meteorological variables including: rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine, as well as derivation of potential evapotranspiration. The system produces series at a daily time resolution, using two stochastic models in series: first, for rainfall which produces an output series which is then used for a second model generating the other variables dependent on rainfall. The series are intended for single sites defined nationally across the UK at a 5 km resolution, but can be generated to be representative across small catchments (<1000 km2). Scenarios can be generated for the control period (1961–1990) based on observed data, as well as for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02) scenarios for three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). Future scenarios are generated by fitting the models to observations which have been perturbed by application of change factors derived from the UKCIP02 mean projected changes in that variable. These change factors are readily updated, as new scenarios become available, and with suitable calibration data the approach could be extended to any geographical region.
This study notes the importance of transport corridors as the arteries of domestic and international trade, and how they boost the competitiveness of the UK economy. The UK transport system supports 61 billion journeys a year. It provides the connections, to support the journeys that matter to economic performance. The UK has a greater proportion of its population connected to the road and rail networks than many European countries, and provides the connections between cities to facilitate return business trips. Investors rate London as the most attractive city to do business in Europe and view the connections, and domestic networks, as a key to its advantage. The UK’s transport networks is crucial productivity and competitiveness: a 5 per cent reduction in travel time for all business travel on the roads could generate around £2.5 billion of cost savings – some 0.2 per cent of GDP. [Country: UK]
This paper describes the development, verification and use of a mathematical model to describe the dynamic behaviour of typical forest trees in high winds. The model assumes (a) that the trunk can be represented by a vertical tapered cantilever with specified stiffness and mass distributions; (b) that the canopy can be represented by a cylindrical body of a different density at the top of the trunk; (c) that the wind loading can be represented by a spatially constant wind distribution applied to the upper part of the canopy, that is varying in time with realistic spectral properties; (d) that the damping of the oscillations of the tree is caused solely by aerodynamic damping.The resulting complex, fourth-order differential equations are solved using numerical methods. This model is used to predict the transfer functions relating tree displacement spectra to wind spectra, and it is shown that the model is able to represent experimental spectra well, particularly with regard to the prediction of the primary natural frequency. Wind speeds for tree failure by both trunk snapping and uprooting are then pictured, and reasonably realistic values obtained. The need for a better understanding of the relationship between extreme and mean wind gusts is apparent. Through a discussion of the sensitivity of the results to variations in the different model parameters some general conclusions are drawn about the effects of the different parameters on tree stability. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.
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