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Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas

Authors:
NRDC Issue Paper
July 2009
Fever Pitch
Authors
Kim Knowlton, Dr.P.H.
Gina Solomon, M.D., M.P.H.
Miriam Rotkin-Ellman, M.P.H.
Natural Resources Defense Council
Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever
Threat Spreading in the Americas
Natural Resources Defense Council I ii
About NRDC
The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) is an international nonprofit environmental organization with more
than 1.2 million members and online activists. Since 1970, our lawyers, scientists, and other environmental specialists
have worked to protect the worlds natural resources, public health, and the environment. NRDC has offices in New
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Zev Ross and Hollie Kitson of ZevRoss Spatial Analysis, Ithaca, New York, for
conducting the mapping, and to Sashti Balasundaram for dengue case data research. Dr. Chester G. Moore of Colorado
State University generously provided access to mosquito occurrence data. We would also like to thank Cindy and Alan
Horn for their support of NRDC’s Global Warming and Health Project.
We are grateful to the following peer reviewers who provided invaluable comments on this report: Chester Moore,
Colorado State University; Kristie L. Ebi, ESS, LLC; Joan Brunkard, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention;
Mary Hayden, National Center for Atmospheric Research Institute for the Study of Society and Environment.
NRDC Director of Communications: Phil Gutis
NRDC Marketing and Operations Director: Alexandra Kennaugh
NRDC Publications Director: Lisa Goffredi
NRDC Publications Editor: Anthony Clark
Production: Jon Prinsky
Copyright 2009 by the Natural Resources Defense Council.
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This report is printed on paper that is 100 percent postconsumer recycled fiber, processed chlorine free.
Natural Resources Defense Council I iii
Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
Table of Contents
Executive Summary iv
Chapter 1: Dengue Fever Makes a Comeback in the Americas 1
Chapter 2: The NRDC Analysis: Increasing Vulnerability to Dengue in the Americas 5
Chapter 3: Recommendations to Help Limit the Spread of Dengue Fever 12
Endnotes 14
Online Appendix: Methods Used to Map Western Hemisphere
Dengue Cases and Vectors in the United States
Available at www.nrdc.org/health/dengue
Natural Resources Defense Council I iv
Executive Summary
O
ver the past decades, several infectious diseases have increased in
incidence and expanded into new geographic areas. There are multiple
factors that contribute to the spread of disease, including increasing
urban population density, more international travel, and widespread international
import/export of goods. Global warming threatens to further exacerbate the spread
of many infectious diseases because increases in heat, precipitation, and humidity
can foster better conditions for tropical and subtropical insects to survive and
thrive in places previously inhospitable to those diseases. A new NRDC analysis
finds that two types of mosquitoes capable of transmitting dengue fever can now be
found across at least 28 states. As temperatures rise, the potential for transmission
of this dangerous disease may increase in vulnerable parts of the United States.
We already know inevitable climate change impacts are projected for the next 50
to 100 years. Investing now in enhanced environmental monitoring and improved
health reporting can help us understand the relative contribution of factors (both
related and unrelated to climate) influencing infectious diseases and strengthen our
climate-health preparedness, both now and for the future.
Dengue Fever Is On the Rise
Dengue (or “breakbone”) fever is high on the list of mosquito-borne diseases that may worsen with global warming. The
symptoms of the disease include high fever, rash, and severe headache with aching bones, joints, and muscles. Dengue
and its deadly complications, dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome, have increased over the past several
decades. Increasing urbanization and population growth facilitate disease transmission, and for communities without
reliable piped municipal water services, the need to collect and store household water in containers can provide the
perfect habitat for mosquitoes to breed. More rapid international travel and trade can move viruses and mosquitoes from
one part of the globe to another, increasing epidemic risks.
Researchers have projected that in the future, global warming could substantially increase the number of people at
risk of dengue epidemics, as warmer temperatures and changing rainfall conditions expand both the area suitable for the
mosquito vectors and the length of the dengue transmission season in temperate areas.
Currently, dengue fever and its complications cause an estimated 50 to 100 million infections, a half-million
hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths annually in more than 100 countries, including parts of South America, Central
America, the Caribbean, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Dengue has increased 30-fold in the last 50 years.
1
By 2085,
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Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
an estimated 5.2 billion people—3 billion additional people worldwide—are projected to be at risk for dengue because of
climate change–induced increases in humidity that contribute to increased mosquito presence.
2
To date, outbreaks of locally transmitted dengue fever in the 50 United States have been limited to the Mexican
border region and Hawaii. However, a new NRDC analysis identifies regions of the United States where multiple
factors could result in increased vulnerability to dengue fever. Our analysis also shows that dengue fever (both imported
and locally transmitted) has increased substantially since the 1970s in many parts of South and Central America, the
Caribbean, and the United States, rising to more than 900,000 cases in the Americas in 2007. The number of dengue
hemorrhagic fever cases soared to more than 26,000 by 2007. Epidemic outbreaks during 2007 in Brazil, Mexico,
Honduras, Paraguay, Costa Rica, Bolivia, and Guyana affected hundreds of thousands.
By 2007, 488 “imported cases” in travelers returning to the United States were reported to the Pan-American Health
Association; imported cases of dengue fever have now occurred in nearly every state in the nation. Nearly 4,000 cases of
imported and locally transmitted dengue were reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention between
1995 and 2005. When cases in the Texas-Mexico border region are included, the number rises to 10,000.
At the same time, the specific types of mosquitoes that can transmit dengue fever have become established in a swath
of at least 28 states and the District of Columbia, and across the south and mid-Atlantic regions, creating a recipe for
local transmission of the disease in the United States. An estimated 173.5 million Americans live in counties with one or
both of the mosquito species that can transmit dengue fever.
Recommendations to Help Limit
the Spread of Dengue Fever
Clinicians, local health officials, and the public
need to be aware of dengues dangers and take
the following steps to help limit its spread:
Improve environmental monitoring
Mosquito trapping, geographic
information systems (GIS) mapping,
and remote sensing tools can help detect
and track the occurrence and spread of
dengues vector species, their habitat
areas, and the presence of the dengue
virus in mosquitoes. Ongoing research
is also needed because global warming’s
effects on temperature and rainfall
patterns can affect the risks of dengue
outbreaks differently in specific areas.
Support better health surveillance
Dengue should be made a nationally
notifiable disease throughout the
United States, as it now is in Texas and
Arizona. A surveillance system should
be established for collection and timely
virologic testing and analysis of blood
samples from suspected dengue cases. Better education of clinicians and health departments is essential to help
recognize dengue infections and treat them immediately. Consistent, centrally reported and confirmed dengue
case surveillance data—with enhanced international coordination, data sharing, lab capacity, and outbreak
notification among nations that share border communities, like the United States and Mexico—are needed to
better understand the changing incidence of the disease and evaluate control programs.
Avoiding
Dengue Fever
When You Travel
To help protect
yourself and your
family, be sure
to arm yourself
with the latest
information on
where, when,
and how dengue
infections can spread, especially if you plan to travel to parts
of the world where dengue is already a public health problem.
Travelers can reduce their risks by sleeping in well-screened
or air-conditioned hotels, most of which also strive to keep
their facilities free of waste containers that can hold shallow
standing water and harbor immature mosquitoes. Travelers
should also apply an insect repellent with 20–30 percent
DEET on exposed skin, particularly in the morning and early
evening hours, and wear loose, long-sleeved shirts and long
pants. Before traveling, you should find out what parts of the
world are currently experiencing dengue outbreaks by visiting
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or
World Health Organization (WHO) websites for information.
A
Av
D
De
W
W
T
o
o
u
f
a
m
t
o
a
w
i
t
i
n
fo
h
The Aedes aegypti mosquito, shown here with
larvae, is one transmitter of dengue fever.
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Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
Improve mosquito control
Pest management that targets larval mosquito
reduction should be implemented at a community
level. Emptying, cleaning, treating, or removing
stagnant water containers—including waste tires—is
an important step that will help prevent transmission
of dengue and other diseases such as West Nile virus.
After storms, floods, and hurricanes, federal assistance
for emergency vector surveillance and control should be
made available immediately to affected localities.
Help create climate- and disease-resilient homes
and communities
Government programs to upgrade housing and
municipal services will help reduce community
vulnerability to dengue. Intact window and door
screens, for example, can significantly reduce transmission of mosquito-borne disease. Access to dependable piped
water and trash collection will further reduce mosquito breeding habitat and improve the overall health status of
community residents. When storms, hurricanes, or floods damage homes, timely response efforts can help reduce
infectious disease risks.
Reduce global warming pollution to decrease
the extent and severity of warming
Because climate change may expand the
geographic range of dengues mosquito vectors,
addressing global warming at its source could
help limit dengue and other climate-health risks. In that regard, governments should enact mandatory legislation
to reduce global warming pollution and combat climate change. In addition, governments must act to protect
communities from the impacts of climate change already underway.
Provide information for travelers visiting high-risk dengue areas
The CDC has estimated that as many as 1 in 1,000 travelers to dengue-endemic countries become ill. See the
sidebar on page v for information about symptoms to look for when traveling to vulnerable areas.
Dengue Symptoms
to Watch For
If you travel to areas
with dengue, symptoms
to watch for include the
“dengue triad” of:
+
High fever and chills
+
Severe pain (headaches; eye pain;
bone, joint, and muscle pain)
+
Rash on the arms, legs, and torso,
with redness and swelling of the
hands and feet
m
s
s
m
s
h
e
il
ls
dac
h
es;
eye
p
i
ai
n
;
An estimated 173.5 million Americans live
in counties with one or both of the mosquito
species that can transmit dengue fever.
Natural Resources Defense Council I 1
D
engue (“breakbone”) fever is a globally reemerging viral disease
transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected mosquito. Dengue
and its complications cause an estimated 50 to 100 million infections,
a half-million hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths each year. Once considered
predominantly a tropical illness, the disease has spread into more temperate areas,
and its incidence has increased 30-fold in the last 50 years.
3
Because of the speed
of its spread, its increasingly serious complications, and the overwhelming burden
of illness and death it causes, many consider dengue the world’s most important
insect-transmitted viral disease.
Dengue has now been reported in more than 100 countries, especially in densely populated urban and residential
areas. Recent epidemics have affected hundreds of thousands of people in Brazil and other parts of South America,
the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, and India. Estimates suggest that 2.5 billion people—nearly 40 percent of the world’s
population—live in areas where the disease can be acquired from local mosquitoes.
4
Global warming is likely to increase the number of people at risk of dengue epidemics by expanding both the area
suitable for the mosquito vectors and the length of dengue transmission season in temperate areas.
5
By 2085, an estimated
5.2 billion people—more than 3 billion additional people worldwide—are projected to be at risk for dengue because of
climate change–induced increases in humidity that contribute to the diseases spread, based on models that use observed
relationships between weather patterns and dengue outbreaks.
6
Researchers in Australia and New Zealand calculated that
climate change is projected to increase the range and risk of dengue in these countries. According to their study, another
1.4 million Australians could be living in areas suitable for the dengue mosquito vector by 2050. Moreover, the number of
months suitable for transmission may rise, increasing the costs of dengue management three- to fivefold.
7
In the United States, dengue fever outbreaks have so far been limited to the U.S.-Mexico border region and Hawaii.
However, our analysis reveals that global warming could result in increased vulnerability to dengue fever throughout the
United States and the Americas. The findings are cause for concern: The analysis shows an increase in dengue fever in
recent years in the United States and its neighbors to the south. And the mosquitoes that can transmit this disease have
become established in a swath of at least 28 states, making disease transmission more likely.
Classic Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, and Dengue Shock Syndrome
Dengue fever (DF) is caused by a member of the same family of viruses that cause yellow fever, West Nile, and Japanese
encephalitis. It is possible to become infected by dengue multiple times because the virus has four different serotypes.
CHAPTER 1
Dengue Fever Makes a Comeback
in the Americas
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Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
Although each infection confers lifelong immunity to that particular serotype, a subsequent infection with a different
serotype increases the risk of contracting the much deadlier form known as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). The
symptoms of dengue fever include high fever, rash, and a severe headache (the “dengue triad”). Additional symptoms
include severe joint and muscle pain (hence the nickname “breakbone fever”), nausea, vomiting, and eye pain. Although
dengue fever itself is rarely fatal, it can be an extraordinarily painful and disabling illness and may become epidemic in a
population following the introduction of a new serotype.
Dengue hemorrhagic fever is a life-threatening illness that occurs in around 1 percent of dengue infections. DHF is
characterized initially by a fever lasting up to a week, followed by bleeding gums and nose and internal bleeding. If not treated
quickly, a life-threatening loss of blood can result, leading to dengue shock syndrome (DSS), internal bleeding, organ failure,
and death. For people unable to get aggressive treatment, DHF fatality rates can range up to 20 percent. The WHO estimates
that a half-million hospitalizations each year result from DHF, most of these among children. Prior to 1970, only nine
countries had experienced DHF epidemics, but by 1995 that number had increased more than fourfold. In the Americas in
2007 alone, there were 26,000 reported cases of DHF, most of them in Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Honduras, and Brazil.
8
Dengue is one of the costliest diseases to treat in developing countries.
9
Treatment includes fluids, blood transfusions
for DHF, and electrolyte therapy for DSS.
10
There is no vaccine to protect against or medicine to cure dengue. The CDC
estimates that an effective dengue vaccine may not be available for five to 10 years.
11
The prevailing method of dengue
control is to combat the mosquitoes that spread the disease.
Surveillance for cases of dengue infection is underfunded, and
there are widespread concerns that dengue infections are already
underreported, both domestically and internationally.
12
Even in
the United States, the suspected dengue numbers reported by the
CDC represent “a minimum estimate of the actual number of U.S.
travelers with dengue fever or its complication, DHF or DSS.”
13
Because dengue is not a nationally notifiable disease in the United
States, diagnostic samples are not routinely taken nor sent for
testing to CDC labs, and many cases may never be counted. Two different blood serum samples taken one to two weeks
apart are needed to confirm a diagnosis of dengue, and important patient information about recent travel and medical
history are not always available to ship along with serum specimens.
14
Better dengue case surveillance is needed in order
to have a full accounting of the extent of dengues impact on public health in the United States and around the world.
Mosquitoes and Dengue Fever
Dengue is transmitted by mosquitoes. In a human, the virus incubates for three to 14 days before symptoms appear, with an
average symptom onset at four to seven days. Other mosquitoes can bite an infected person and subsequently transmit the
virus to uninfected people. In this way, the mosquito is acting as a “vector” to transmit the dengue virus from person to person.
According to the CDC, there are two species of mosquito that can transmit dengue fever.
15
Both species are now
found in parts of the United States (see Figure 4). The principal vector of dengue is Aedes aegypti, which is also the vector
of yellow fever. A. aegypti is an aggressive biter (especially in early morning and late afternoon) that prefers to live inside
buildings and feed on humans. It favors dark, indoor areas (closets, bathrooms, behind curtains, and under beds) but can
also be found outdoors in gardens and in shallow standing water. A. aegypti is well established in much of the tropical
and subtropical world, including the southeastern United States, but currently cannot survive winter temperatures in
colder, northern states. A. aegypti has proliferated as the developing world has urbanized. Its domestic subspecies has
become perfectly adapted to living in close contact with humans.
16
A. aegypti is currently found in at least 16 U.S.
eastern, southeastern, and southwestern states.
The potential for dengue fever transmission in the United States has increased since the late 1980s with the introduction
of a second mosquito species, Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger mosquito. This mosquito was first found in the United States
in Houston, Texas, in 1985; it is suspected to have arrived in shipments of used tires, which collect and hold rainwater and
provide insulation from heat and cold, making them ideal mosquito breeding habitat.
17
A. albopictus can tolerate colder
temperatures, which has helped the Asian Tiger move into more than a thousand U.S. counties since its arrival. Unlike A.
Global warming could increase the
number of people at risk of dengue
outbreaks by expanding both the area
suitable for the mosquito vectors and
the length of dengue transmission
season in temperate areas.
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Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
aegypti, the Asian Tiger prefers suburban and
rural settings and feeds on both humans and
animals. The rapid spread of this species has
raised concerns among public health officials
because it is a potential carrier of dengue and
other viral diseases and is likely to expand its
population into other states.
18
The Global Warming Connection
Among the complex set of factors influencing
dengue transmission, global warming is
particularly important because it can create
warmer and wetter conditions that increase the
risk of infection. Warmer temperatures boost
the speed of development of adult mosquitoes,
increasing their numbers. Female mosquitoes
bite more frequently in hotter temperatures, and
warmer winters enable mosquitoes to survive
in areas that were formerly too cold. Higher
temperatures also shorten the time it takes for the
virus inside the mosquito to develop and become
infective. This means that the mosquitoes become
dangerous to humans more rapidly. Several studies
have shown that in certain regions where dengue
is present, vector abundance and disease incidence
rise measurably with increases in temperature,
precipitation, and humidity.
19
Global warming is projected to increase the amount and variability of precipitation in many areas, which can create
expanded habitat hospitable to immature mosquitoes. Higher humidity contributes to improved survival of eggs and adult
mosquitoes. Drought can also lead to increased transmission in cities without adequate water and sanitation, because
people store drinking water in containers that can serve as mosquito breeding sites. Finally, global warming can enhance
the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events that are likely to disrupt shelter, water, sewer, and sanitation services.
If window and door screens are damaged, human-mosquito contact will increase; if drinking water supplies are disrupted,
people will be forced to store water in containers, leaving local populations even more vulnerable as floodwaters recede.
20
Other Factors Contributing to the Spread of Dengue Fever
Many other factors—including rapid urban population growth, increasingly widespread international travel and transport,
and disrupted or weakened mosquito control measures—affect where and when dengue outbreaks occur.
21
Some have
called dengue “a disease of poverty” because in areas that lack window screens, municipal drinking water supplies, or trash
collection, dengue can run rampant through the population.
22
But dengue can also strike the more affluent, especially if
they travel internationally. In 2004, a record 27.4 million U.S. travelers visited overseas countries, which was a 12 percent
increase from the previous year.
23
International movement of people and cargo can rapidly transport mosquitoes as well
as dengue-infected individuals into new, susceptible populations and bring different dengue serotypes together, increasing
the risks of DHF transmission. Viruses like dengue are spread internationally by infected travelers who act as disease
incubators. As they carry the virus into new regions, outbreaks can result if mosquito vector species that can carry the
infection also inhabit the area. Researchers have suggested that infected people rather than infected “stowaway” mosquitoes
hiding in airplanes, ship containers, or tires are the most likely source of imported dengue infections.
24
Dengue in the Americas
In the 1950s and 1960s, dengue
was eliminated from much of
Central and South America by
mosquito control efforts directed
at eradicating yellow fever (which
is carried by the same mosquito
vector species). But as mosquito
control programs declined in the 1970s, dengue returned
because A. aegypti reinfested countries from which it had
previously been eliminated. A deadly pattern appeared: within
a few years of reinfestation, dengue epidemics occur, first
with one serotype and then with multiple ones, leading to an
increase in DHF.
25
In the western hemisphere, the reported
number of dengue cases doubled between 1995 and 2001,
and the disease continues to spread into new areas with
more explosive outbreaks.
26
The year 2007 was the worst on
record for dengue in over a decade, with more than 900,000
cases of DF and DHF in the western hemisphere.
27
With
international travel now increasingly widespread, cases of
dengue are confirmed every year in the United States, mainly
imported by travelers returning from dengue-endemic areas
or the southern U.S. border. Many cases go undiagnosed by
physicians who don’t recognize its symptoms or among those
fortunate patients whose symptoms are minor (see text box
“Dengue Symptoms to Watch For,” page vi). Yet according
to the CDC, “There is a small, but significant, risk for dengue
outbreaks in the continental United States.”
28
De
I
n
t
wa
Ce
mo
a
t
e
i
s
c
v
e
c
control
p
ro
g
rams declined in
because
A aegypti
reinfeste
d
i
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Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
Dengue Fever in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region
Some researchers estimate that 110,000 to 200,000 new infections
annually may be transmitted along the U.S.-Mexico border and in the
southern United States.
29
Along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexico border region,
the lack of planning to accommodate the tremendous population growth
in recent decades has led to inadequate investment in public infrastructure
and housing development. As a result, hundreds of thousands of border
residents live in communities known as colonias. These communities often
lack sewer systems, treated drinking water, storm drainage, good-quality housing, or garbage service—all of
which can threaten residents’ health.
30
As global warming brings increasing temperatures and major storm
events that augment flooding, disruptions in water and wastewater systems could make these border regions
even hotter spots for dengue. While several western hemisphere nations have shown declining dengue
incidence rates since the mid-1990s, there have also been some local increases in more recent years. For
example, while overall dengue incidence in Mexico has fallen since the mid-1990s, rates reportedly increased
by 600 percent between 2001 and 2007. Some researchers think the recent trend there toward higher
temperatures and humidity could be allowing dengue mosquito populations to increase and move into new
regions.
31
With millions of crossings back and forth each month among U.S.-Mexico border communities—to
visit family and friends, shop, work, and seek the most affordable health care—dengue has and will continue
to traverse national boundaries.
32,33
This isn’t a hypothetical risk: dengue has already infected 40 percent of the population on the U.S. side of
some of these border areas. A blood sampling survey in 2004 found evidence of undiagnosed past dengue
infection in 40 percent of Brownsville, Texas, residents and in 78 percent of those living in Matamoros in the
Mexican state of Tamaulipas. Mosquito larvae were found in 30 percent of homes in both areas.
34
With more
warming, international travel, and dengue viral strains in circulation, the region is primed for another DHF
outbreak. In a large dengue outbreak in 2005 along the Texas-Mexico border, more than 7,000 DF cases and
1,823 cases (26 percent) of DHF were reported in Tamaulipas, along with several cases of locally acquired
DHF in Texas, which until recently had not been recorded in the United States.
35
A survey of households
in Matamoros and Brownsville shortly after the epidemic peaked showed that 32 percent and 4 percent of
residents, respectively, had signs of recent dengue—amounting to an additional 6,700 undiagnosed infections
in Brownsville.
36
There were abundant populations of the two dengue mosquito species in Brownsville; both
cities had plentiful used tires and water buckets infested with immature mosquitoes. Less than two-thirds
of homes had window and door screens, and less than a quarter of residents reported using insect repellent
regularly. All four strains of the dengue virus have circulated in South Texas, raising concerns about increased
risk of DHF among those reinfected by different dengue strains.
D
e
n
So
m
ann
u
sou
t
the l
in r
e
and
res
id
lack sewer s
y
stems, treated drinkin
g
w
wh
ic
h
ca
n
th
re
at
en
r
es
id
en
ts
he
al
th
30
Natural Resources Defense Council I 5
T
he Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) mapped data on dengue
fever in the Americas from 1995–2007 as well as data on the distribution
of the mosquito vectors for the disease in the United States. We chose
1995 as a starting point because it was the first year of the improved disease
surveillance program by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).
37
For a
cross-comparison, we also graphed time trends in dengue fever from 1970–2007
using information from WHO’s DengueNet data source and PAHO.
38
Data from
the United States came from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
and other sources (see Appendix A, online at www.nrdc.org/health/dengue, for
methodology). Our analysis reveals increases over time in the disease in many parts
of South and Central America, as well as in the Caribbean and the United States.
Rates of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) have also shown an increase during this
time frame. Maps of mosquito populations in the United States reveal zones that
are vulnerable to possible outbreaks of dengue fever.
CHAPTER 2
The NRDC Analysis: Increasing
Vulnerability to Dengue in the Americas
The current distribution of dengue shows that five nations in Central and South America (Honduras, Costa Rica,
Venezuela, Brazil, and Paraguay) are the most serious hotspots for the disease (Figure 1). With more than 500,000 cases
reported in 2007, Brazil has by far the largest number of cases and burden of disease in the western hemisphere (Table 1).
Other countries, such as Colombia, Bolivia, the Hispanic Caribbean, Panama, and El Salvador, are also suffering from
significant rates of dengue fever. The only country in the western hemisphere with no reported cases of dengue fever in
2007 was Uruguay.
Rates of dengue fever increased by more than 100 percent since 1995 in Bolivia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, parts of
the Caribbean, and the United States (Figure 2). There has been an appreciable increase in dengue in recent years in
the United States and its neighbors to the south, with annual hemispheric incidence of more than 900,000 cases of
dengue fever in 2007 and more than 26,000 DHF cases. Epidemic outbreaks during 2007 in some of the western
hemisphere countries affected hundreds of thousands. The United States saw a dramatic increase in the number of
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Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
Figure 1: Incidence of Dengue in the Americas, 2007
NOTE: Comparison of dengue incidence rates per 100,000 population in 2007, categorized as low, medium, or high. Data are from the Pan-
American Health Organization (PAHO). PAHO data are available online at http://www.paho.org/english/ad/dpc/cd/dengue.htm.
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Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
Figure 2: Comparison of Dengue Incidence Rates: 2005–2007 Average Versus 1995–1997 Average
NOTE: Comparison of percent changes in dengue plus DHF incidence rates per 100,000 population, average of years 2005–2007 vs. average of
years 1995–1997. Data are from PAHO, available online at http://www.paho.org/english/ad/dpc/cd/dengue.htm.
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Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
PAHO-reported cases by 2007 (488
cases) versus 1995 (7 cases). Other
countries, such as Argentina
and Chile (Easter Island), which
previously did not report any cases
of dengue, had the disease by
the end of the reporting period.
Mexico, Colombia, Nicaragua,
and Guatemala reported decreased
rates during this time. Note that
some of the changes over time
and among countries could be
due to differences in the resources
available for case monitoring
and reporting, the relative effect
of large outbreaks in 1995, and
efforts to control and prevent
dengue and DHF since then.
39
An assessment of time trends
since 1970 shows that there is
considerable variability from year
to year, but that overall reported
cases have substantially increased
in the western hemisphere (Figure
3). Reports of dengue hemorrhagic
fever also increased significantly
since 1995. The total number
of cases in the Americas went
from 8,228 in 1995 to more than
26,000 in 2007 (see Figure A1
in the online appendix to this
paper, available at www.nrdc.org/
health/dengue). The rise in DHF
may be due in part to increasing
international travel and trade,
which allows the various serotypes
to circulate more freely and can increase chances of reinfection with different strains. New serotypes were introduced
into the Americas in 1995 and 1998, with all four serotypes in circulation by 2007.
40
Dengue Vulnerability in the United States
There have been imported cases of dengue fever reported in nearly every state of the United States. Nearly 4,000 cases
of imported and locally transmitted dengue were reported in the United States from 1995 to 2005. When cases in the
Texas-Mexico border region are included, the numbers rise to 10,000. Across the border in Mexico, dengue fever cases
during this time numbered in the tens of thousands. In the northern United States, dengue fever is likely to remain
a disease of tourists returning from abroad. However, in a swath across the southern and mid-Atlantic states, there
is potential for a more serious problem. Our mapping of mosquito prevalence data revealed that the species that can
Table 1: Dengue Fever and Dengue
Hemorrhagic Fever Cases Reported in 2007
NOTE: Table shows the numbers of combined DF plus DHF case counts reported in 2007
for western hemisphere countries, listed by country from high to low. Data are from the Pan-
American Health Organization (PAHO), available online at http://www.paho.org/english/ad/
dpc/cd/dengue.htm.
Country Total Number of Cases
Brazil 559,954
Venezuela 80,646
Mexico 48,436
Colombia 43,227
Honduras 33,508
Paraguay 28,182
Costa Rica 26,440
Hispanic Caribbean 20,668
El Salvador 12,467
Caribbean 10,986
Ecuador 10,587
Bolivia 7,332
Peru 6,907
Guatemala 5,886
Panama 3,402
Nicaragua 1,415
United States 488
Argentina 173
Belize 40
Chile 28
Uruguay 0
Western Hemisphere 2007 Total 900,772
Natural Resources Defense Council I 9
Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
Figure 3: Rolling Average of Dengue Fever Reported in the Western Hemisphere, 1970–2007
NOTE: Seven-year rolling (or moving) averages of cases of Dengue Fever Reported in the Western Hemisphere, 1970–2007. Data were compiled
by WHO’s DengueNet for 1970–1994 and by PAHO for 1995–2007.
41,42
Bars represent the average of values calculated across seven years and
also the three preceding and three following years’ data when available.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Data compiled by WHO’s DengueNet for 1970-1994,
and by PAHO for 1995-2007, from combined DF+DHF+DSS
cases. Bars represent seven-year moving averages, tapered
at either end; counts for 1976 were not available.
Year
carry dengue are widespread in at least 28 states and the District of Columbia (Figure 4). The map shows the swath of
counties reporting the presence of one or both of the two mosquito vector species as of 2005.
43
With international travel
increasingly common, cases of dengue are confirmed every year in the United States, imported by visitors returning
from dengue-endemic areas. During the summer months when adult mosquito vectors are active in the United States,
the arrival of infected travelers creates conditions that could be conducive to an outbreak. For example, in some states,
such as Oregon, 90 cases of dengue fever have been mapped without either of the vectors present as yet, because travelers
infected with the virus brought the disease back with them. Dengue could spread when a critical mass of infected people
eventually combines with increased numbers and geographic range of the mosquito vector species here in the United
States. An estimated 173.5 million Americans currently live in counties with one or both of the mosquito species,
making them vulnerable to spread of the disease.
Natural Resources Defense Council I 10
Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
U.S. Border States
Are Most Vulnerable
The U.S.-Mexico border has been a hotspot for
dengue fever with outbreaks in 1995, 1997,
and 2005. Substandard housing conditions in
communities known as colonias, which often
lack sewer systems, treated drinking water,
storm drainage, good-quality housing, and
garbage service, threaten resident’s health and
increase vulnerability to dengue fever. As global
warming increases the frequency and severity
of storm events resulting in flooding and
disruptions to shelter, water, and wastewater
systems, this region’s vulnerability to dengue
could increase, and the disease could spread
northward into the United States. Mexico has a
dengue plan that is intended to address some
of these concerns in the colonias.
U
U
S
S
B
B
or
d
de
r
S
St
at
es
Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Are At Risk
The eastern and Gulf coasts are vulnerable
to storms, hurricanes, and flooding that
damage homes and critical infrastructure—
often creating ideal conditions for increased
mosquito populations. In addition, damaged
homes, disrupted water and wastewater
systems, and displaced populations enhance
human-mosquito contact. As global warming
amplifies the impact of hurricanes and
storms, these coastal areas face increased
vulnerability to insect-borne diseases like
dengue fever. To help reduce vulnerability
and better prepare for the health impacts of
global warming, building more storm-resilient
housing and strengthening public health
infrastructure should become a priority.
At
At
l
la
t
nt
i
ic
a
d
nd
G
G
l
ul
f
f
C
Co
as
t
ts
PHOTO CITATION: ALAN POGUE (2000),
FOUND ONLINE AT: HTTP://WWW.PBS.ORG/
KLRU/FORGOTTENAMERICANS/PRESS.HTM.
Natural Resources Defense Council I 11
Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
Figure 4: Dengue Fever Vulnerability in the United States
NOTE: Dengue vulnerability in the United States. Among the social and environmental factors that increase community vulnerability to dengue and other infectious diseases are poor municipal
infrastructure and frequent storm damage to homes. Red areas of the map show U.S. counties that have reported the presence of one or both of the mosquito species (Aedes aegypti and Aedes
albopictus) that can potentially transmit dengue fever; blue regions highlight the area encompassing most of the positive counties. Numbers of suspected cases of dengue infection reported from
1995–2005, inclusive, are shown below each state name.
44
Reported counts of suspected dengue fever cases are also included for the six Mexican states that border the United States.
45
Suspected Dengue Cases Reported from 1995–2005 in
the U.S. and Northern Mexico, and U.S. Vector Range
Natural Resources Defense Council I 12
T
he effects of climatic change in the United States could create conditions
that enhance the spread of dengue. Clinicians, local health officials, and
the public need to be aware of the dangers of this disease. Many factors
contribute to the disease transmission cycle, and a number of steps can be taken to
help limit its spread:
CHAPTER 3
Recommendations to Help Limit the
Spread of Dengue Fever
1) Improve environmental monitoring
Active mosquito trapping can help detect and track the occurrence and spread of vector species, habitat areas, and
the presence of the dengue virus in mosquitoes. Ongoing research is also needed because global warmings effects on
temperature and rainfall patterns may affect the risks of dengue outbreaks differently in different areas.
46
Systems are being developed that can combine environmental monitoring data on mosquito breeding areas with
information on local dengue infections into web-based, user-friendly features that give a visual sense of what mosquito breeding
“hotspots” look like and what factors can contribute to the expansion of mosquito habitat.
47
A new arsenal of geographic
information systems (GIS) and remote sensing tools have already been used to map case locations and relationships between
environmental and demographic changes and dengue risk factors in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and several Asian countries.
48
2) Support better health surveillance
Dengue should be made a nationally notifiable disease. A proactive surveillance system should be established for collection
and timely virologic testing and analysis of blood samples from suspected dengue cases. In the United States, the public
health system largely depends upon clinicians and state health departments to recognize and report suspected cases.
49
This in turn depends on patients, visiting health care providers who can recognize and report suspected cases and send
blood samples for testing. As a result, the number of cases reported is probably an underestimate of the actual number
of cases. Surveillance results suggest that local transmission should be publicized as an early warning system alerting the
public to take protective action and practitioners to be vigilant in timely diagnosis and treatment. In particular, “sentinel
surveillance” of returning travelers could provide a forewarning of imported cases.
50
Consistent, centrally reported and
confirmed dengue case surveillance data—with enhanced international coordination, data sharing, lab capacity, and
outbreak notification among nations that share border communities, like the United States and Mexico—is needed in
order to better understand the changing incidence of the disease and to evaluate control programs. The Border Infectious
Disease Surveillance (BIDS) Project, a binational collaboration begun in 1997, “was designed to bridge this surveillance
gap” and has successfully enhanced local disease reporting for a number of infections, including dengue.
51
Better education of clinicians and health departments is essential to help recognize dengue infections and treat them
immediately. Some clinicians may not be aware that dengue should be considered in a detailed, systematic method of diagnosis
for patients with fever and a history of recent travel to dengue-endemic areas.
52
To diagnose dengue, doctors need to obtain two
blood samples from suspected cases one to two weeks apart.
53
Proper treatment and case management can save lives and reduce
DHF death rates from an estimated 20 percent among those untreated to less than 1 percent for those with appropriate care.
54
Natural Resources Defense Council I 13
Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
3) Improve mosquito control
Improving vector control is the primary means of controlling the spread of dengue. Pesticide sprays to kill adult mosquitoes
are usually ineffective.
55
Spraying is also too costly to be a useful long-term solution and can result in insecticide-resistant
mosquitoes.
56
Furthermore, because A. aegypti spends much of its adult life inside homes, spraying pesticides outdoors is
unlikely to be helpful. The most effective way to control mosquitoes is to eliminate, drain, clean, or treat the containers,
trash, or tires that can hold standing water and act as habitat where immature mosquitoes develop.
57
Waste tires are
hazardous because they serve as mosquito breeding grounds, yet millions of them accumulate in the Texas-Mexico border
region. More international collaboration is needed to establish trade markets for waste tires to help reduce disease risk.
Where there is emphasis on health education and mobilization of communities to identify and eliminate local vector breeding
sites, dengue control programs are more likely to meet with long-term success. After storms, floods, and hurricanes, federal
assistance for emergency vector surveillance and control should be made available immediately to affected localities.
4) Create climate- and disease-resilient homes and communities
Dependable piped water systems and trash collection as well as access to safe drinking water will reduce mosquito breeding habitat
and help protect residents of poor communities that are most at risk. Installing window and door screens can reduce contact with
mosquitoes, and timely emergency response after hurricanes and similar events can also help minimize human-mosquito contact.
Provision of regular health care will strengthen the underlying wellness and knowledge base for communities at risk for dengue,
which today (with frequent air travelers everywhere) may include any area where dengue mosquitoes reside.
5) Reduce global warming pollution to decrease the extent and severity of warming
Because climate change may expand the geographic range of dengues vectors, addressing global warming at its source could
help limit dengue and other climate-health risks, which include heat wave deaths, increases in air pollution–related illnesses,
and increasingly frequent intense storms with flooding. In that regard, governments should enact mandatory legislation to
reduce global warming pollution and combat climate change. In addition, governments must act to protect communities
from the impacts of climate change already underway.
6) Provide information for travelers visiting high-risk dengue areas
The CDC has estimated that as many as 1 in 1,000 travelers to dengue-endemic countries becomes ill. Travelers can reduce
their risks by sleeping in well-screened or air-conditioned hotels that strive to keep their facilities free of waste containers
that can hold shallow standing water and harbor immature mosquitoes. In areas with dengue fever, use of insecticide-
treated curtains is a useful way of reducing transmission.
58
Travelers should also limit outdoor activities at dusk and dawn
when mosquitoes are most active, apply an insect repellent with 20–30 percent DEET on exposed skin in the morning
and late afternoon (over sunscreen), and consider wearing long-sleeved shirts and long pants. Adults should apply repellent
to children, avoiding their eyes, mouth, and hands. Products that combine repellents and sunscreen are generally not
recommended because sunscreens need to be reapplied more frequently. Adults can protect infants by using a carrier draped
with mosquito netting that has an elastic edge for a tight fit. If you suspect you have a dengue infection while traveling—the
dengue triad” of symptoms include high fever; rash; and severe headache with bone, joint, and muscle pain—see a doctor.
In the meantime, avoid aspirin and ibuprofen because they can increase bleeding; instead opt for acetaminophen to reduce
fever and pain.
59
Before you travel, find out what parts of the world are currently experiencing dengue outbreaks by visiting
the CDC’s Dengue Outbreak Notice website or Travelers Health-Yellow Book on dengue.
60,61
Dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever are both regional and global health crises that demand coordinated government
action to minimize risks. There are active, ongoing research efforts to develop an effective dengue vaccine, which would be a
key weapon in “the dengue war.”
62
The complete arsenal in combating dengue will need to include strategies to reduce vector
populations; educate clinicians, travelers, and the public; improve urban housing and sanitation; and limit global warming,
which contributes to the spread of this dreaded disease and increasingly brings global issues much closer to home.
Natural Resources Defense Council I 14
Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
1. Phillips, M.L. (2008), “Dengue reborn: widespread resurgence of a resilient vector,” Environ Health Perspect
116(9):A382-A388.
2. Hales, S., N. de Wet, and J. Maindonald, et al. (2002), “Potential effect of population and climate changes on global
distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model,” Lancet 360: 830–34.
3. Phillips (2008).
4. Morens, D.M. and A.S. Fauci (2008), “Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever: a potential threat to public health in the
United States,” JAMA 299(2):214-216 (January 9/16, 2008); Phillips (2008); World Health Organization (2008), Dengue
and dengue haemorrhagic fever (Factsheet No.117), available at: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs117/en/; U.S.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2008a), Travelers Health-Outbreak Notice, available at: http://wwwn.
cdc.gov/travel/contentDengueTropicalSubTropical.aspx; Senior K (2007), “Dengue fever: what hope for control?” The
Lancet Infectious Diseases 7 (October 2007):636; U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S. CDC) (2008b),
Dengue Fever Home Page, available online at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/dengue/#current.
5. Kovats, R.S. et al. (2000), Climate Change and Human Health: Impact and Adaptation, World Health Organization (May
2000); Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, et al. (2007), “Human health,” Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), Parry, M.L., et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK:391-431.
6. Hales, et al. (2002).
7. McMichael, A., R. Woodruff, P. Whetton, et al. (2003), Human Health and Climate Change in Oceania: A Risk Assessment
– 2002, Commonwealth of Australia (section 7.5).
8. Morens and Fauci (2008); Brody, J.E., “Mosquito thrives; so does dengue fever,” The New York Times, May 13, 2008;
Fuller, T., “The dengue war,” The New York Times, November 4, 2008; World Health Organization (2008); PAHO data
available online at: http://www.paho.org/english/ad/dpc/cd/dengue.htm.
9. Fuller (2008).
10. Morens and Fauci (2008).
11. CDC (2008b).
12. Fuller, T. (2008); CDC (2007), “Dengue hemorrhagic fever – US-Mexico border, 2005,” MMWR Weekly 56(31):785-789.
13. US CDC (2000), “Imported dengue – United States, 1997 and 1998,” MMWR Weekly 49(12):248-253.
14. US CDC (2006).
15. US CDC (2008c), Dengue Fever, available online at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/dengue/
16. Moreno-Sanchez, R., M. Hayden, C. Janes, et al. (2006), “A web-based multimedia spatial information system to document
Aedes aegypti breeding sites and dengue fever risk along the US-Mexico border,” Health & Place 12:715-727.
17. Hawley, W.A., P. Reiter, R.S. Copeland, et al. (1987), “Aedes albopictus in North America: probable introduction in used
tires from northern Asia,” Science 236 (29 May 1987):1114-1116; ; Gubler, D.J. (2006), “Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic
fever,” Chapter 72, in Tropical Infectious Diseases: Principles, Pathogens, and Practice, Vol. 1, 2nd ed., R.L. Guerrant, et
al. (eds.), Philadelphia, PA: Elsevier.
18. Benedict, M.Q., R.S. Levine, W.A. Hawley, et al. (2007), “Spread of the tiger: global risk of invasion by the mosquito Aedes
albopictus,” Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 7(1):76-85.
19. Hopp, M.J., and J.A. Foley (2003), “Worldwide fluctuation in dengue fever cases related to climate variability,” Clim
Res 25:85-94; National Research Council (NRC) Division on Earth and Life Studies Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate Committee on Climate, Ecosystems, Infectious Disease and Human Health (2001), Under the Weather: Climate,
Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease, Washington, DC: National Academy Press; Phillips (2008).
20. Gage, K.L., T.R. Burkot, R.J. Eisen, E.B. Hayes (2008), “Climate and vectorborne diseases,” Am J Prev Med 35(5):436-450;
NRC (2001); Confalonieri, et al. (2007).
21. Wilder-Smith, A., and D.J. Gubler (2008), “Geographic expansion of dengue: the impact of international travel,” Med Clin N
Am 92:1377-1390; Wilson, K. (2009), “Climate change and the spread of infectious ideas,” Ecology 90(4):901-902.
22. Phillips (2008).
Endnotes
Natural Resources Defense Council I 15
Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
23. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2006), U.S.-International Travel and Transportation Trends: 2006 Update, Washington,
DC: U.S. Department of Transportation.
24. Wilder-Smith and Gubler (2008).
25. Spiegel, J., et al. (2005), “Barriers and bridges to prevention and control of dengue: the need for a social-ecological
approach,” EcoHealth 2:273-290.
26. Phillips (2008).
27. Wilder-Smith and Gubler (2008).
28. CDC (2008b).
29. Hotez, P.J. (2008), “Neglected infections of poverty in the United States of America,” PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2(6):e256,
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000256.
30. Ramos, M.M., H. Mohammed, E. Zielinski-Gutierrez, et al. (2008), “Epidemic dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever at
the Texas-Mexico border: results of a household-based seroepidemiologic survey, December 2005,” Am J Trop Med Hyg
78(3):364-369.
31. Barclay, E. (2008), “International action needed on dengue,” The Lancet 371:973-974.
32. CDC (2001), “Underdiagnosis of dengue—Laredo, Texas, 1999,” MMWR Weekly 50(4):57-59.
33. Brunkard, J.M., J.L. Robles Lopez, J. Ramirez, et al. (2007), “Dengue fever seroprevalence and risk factors, Texas-Mexico
border, 2004,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(10):1477-1483.
34. Ibid.
35. CDC (2007), “Dengue hemorrhagic fever – US-Mexico border, 2005,” MMWR Weekly 56(31):785-789; Ramos et al. (2008).
36. Ramos et al. (2008).
37. PAHO data are available online at: http://www.paho.org/english/ad/dpc/cd/dengue.htm.
38. DengueNet data from the World Health Organization (WHO) for 1955-2009 are available online at: http://www.who.int/
globalatlas/DataQuery/default.asp.
39. Parks, W., and L. Lloyd (2004), Planning Social Mobilization and Communication for Dengue Fever Prevention and
Control: a Step-by-Step Guide, available at: http://www.paho.org/english/ad/dpc/cd/den-step-by-step.htm; Pan American
Health Organization (PAHO) (2004), Dengue COMBI Plan, Belize, available at: http://www.paho.org/English/AD/DPC/CD/
den-combi-plan-bze.pdf.
40. Wilder-Smith and Gubler (2008); CDC (2008b); PAHO (2007), “Emerging & re-emerging infectious diseases, region of the
Americas,” EID Updates 4(8):16 April 2007, available at: http://www.paho.org/English/AD/DPC/CD/eid-eer-2007-09-26.
htm.
41. DengueNet data from the World Health Organization (WHO) for 1955-2009 are available online at: http://www.who.int/
globalatlas/DataQuery/default.asp.
42. PAHO data are available online at: http://www.paho.org/english/ad/dpc/cd/dengue.htm.
43. Moore, C. (2008), “Exotic mosquitoes in the USA. 27th Biennial State Public Health Vector Control Conference,” available
at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/westnile/conf/27thbiennialVectorControl/index.htm; ArboNET data are through 2006;
Note: the Moore (2008) data were last updated in 2005.
44. CDC (1996), “Imported dengue-United States, 1995,” MMWR Weekly 45(45):988-991; CDC (1998), “Imported
dengue—United States, 1996,” MMWR Weekly 47(26):544-547; CDC (1996), “Dengue fever at the U.S.-Mexico border,
1995-1996,” MMWR Weekly 45(39)841-844; CDC (2000); CDC (1999), “Imported dengue—Florida, 1997 and 1998,”
MMWR Weekly 48(50):1150-1152; CDC (2001); CDC (2002), “Imported dengue—United States, 1999 and 2000,” MMWR
Weekly 51(13):281-283; CDC (2005), “Travel-associated dengue infections—United States, 2001-2004,” MMWR Weekly
54(22):556-558; CDC (2006), “Travel-associated dengue—United States, 2005,” MMWR Weekly 54(25):700-702; Effler,
P.V., et al. (2005); “Dengue fever, Hawaii, 2001-2002,” Emerg Infect Dis 11(5): 742-749; CDC (2007).
45. Data from http://www.dgepi.salud.gob.mx/anuario/index.html#.
46. Confalonieri et al. (2007).
47. Moreno-Sanchez et al. (2006).
48. Lozano-Fuentes, S., et al. (2008), “Use of Google Earth to strengthen public health capacity and facilitate management of
vector-borne diseases in resource-poor environments,” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 86(9) 718-725.
49. CDC (2008b).
50. Wilder-Smith and Gubler (2008).
51. Weinberg, M., et al. (2003), “The U.S.-Mexico Border Infectious Disease Surveillance project: establishing bi-national
border surveillance,” Emerg Infect Dis 9(1):97-102.
Natural Resources Defense Council I 16
Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Dengue Fever Threat Spreading in the Americas
52. Ellis, K.H. (2008), “Experts warn of potential dengue fever outbreak in the United States,” Infectious Disease News
(February 2008), available online at: http://www.infectiousdiseasenews.com/200802/dengue.asp.
53. CDC (2006).
54. WHO (2008).
55. Gubler, D.J. (2006), “Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever,” in: Tropical Infectious Diseases: Principles, Pathogens, &
Practice (Ch. 72), Guerrant, R.L., D.H. Walker, and P.F. Weller (eds.), Philadelphia:Elsevier/Churchill-Livingston.
56. Spiegel et al. (2005).
57. Medronho, R.A., et al. (2009), “Aedes aegypti immature forms distribution according to type of breeding site,” Am J Trop
Med Hyg 80(3): 401-404; Lounibos, L.P. (2002), “Invasions by insect vectors of human disease,” Annu Rev Entomol
47:233-266.
58. Johnsen, M.M. (2008), “Potential mosquito problems after a hurricane,” Texas A & M Agrilife Extension, available at:
http://agnews.tamu.edu/showstory.php?id=736.
59. Brody (2008); US CDC (2007), Dengue and DHF: Information for Health Care Providers, available at: http://www.cdc.gov/
ncidod/dvbid/dengue/dengue-hcp.htm.
60. CDC (2008a).
61. CDC (2008c), Yellow Book – Traveler’s Health. Prevention of Specific Infectious Diseases: Dengue Fever, available online
at: http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/yellowBookCh4-DengueFever.aspx.
62. Fuller (2008).
... Pemasangan kasa pada jendela dan pintu dapat mengurangi kontak dengan nyamuk, dan secara signifikan dapat mengurangi transmisi dari penyakit akibat nyamuk. 19 Sebuah hasil penelitian di India, menyatakan penggunaan kawat kasa pada jendela dan pintu rumah mampu menurunkan kontak nyamuk baik di wilayah perkotaan maupun pedesaan. 20 Berdasarkan hasil penelitian tesis Elvin Tirtasari, dkk terdapat hubungan antara penggunaan kasa anti nyamuk dengan kejadian DBD di Kelurahan 19 November Kabupaten Kolaka (p=0,008). ...
... bukan saat malam hari. 25,26 Hasil yang sama juga diperoleh pada sebuah penelitian di Lahore, Pakistan, dimana penduduk yang tidur dan tidak memasang kawat kasa pada pintu dan jendela rumah berisiko 4,82 kali terkena DBD dibandingkan yang memasang kawat kasa di pintu dan jendela rumah mereka (OR=4,82; 95% CI=1, [17][18][19]72). 27 Hasil yang sama juga didapatkan dalam penelitian Thammapalo, dkk di Thailand, yaitu besar risiko kejadian DBD pada rumah yang tidak memasang kawat kasa di jendela adalah 4 kali lipat, dibandingkan rumah yang memasang kawat kasa di jendela (OR=4.10). ...
Article
DHF is still remains a health problem in Indonesia, especially in Semarang City. Based on data from Semarang City Health Office at 2014, DHF affected the age group 1-14 years as many sufferers of 1,065 (65%), in children ages 6-12 years old groups only has recorded 336 sufferers (ITP 20.6%). Several protective factors that prevent mosquito bite in children is wearing pants/skirt length, use of repellent, installation of bednet, and installation of net mosquitoes. The aims of this research was toprove whether wearing long pants/skirt could prevent the occurrence of DHF in elementary students. The design was a case control study. Total sample was 160 children (80 children per group) selected by proportional random sampling with due regard to inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data analysis was bivariate with chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression. There were variables that may prevented the incidence of DHF in school children which were wearing pants/long skirts at home (p=0.003; Or=2,781; 95% CI=1,412-5,476), installation of net mosquitoes in the windows (p=0,018; Or=2,462; 95% CI=1,166-5,200). Results of this research showed that the occurrence of DHF in children can prevented by wearing pants/long skirts at home, and the installation of net mosquitoes at windows home.
... Pemasangan kasa pada jendela dan pintu dapat mengurangi kontak dengan nyamuk, dan secara signifikan dapat mengurangi transmisi dari penyakit akibat nyamuk. 19 Sebuah hasil penelitian di India, menyatakan penggunaan kawat kasa pada jendela dan pintu rumah mampu menurunkan kontak nyamuk baik di wilayah perkotaan maupun pedesaan. 20 Berdasarkan hasil penelitian tesis Elvin Tirtasari, dkk terdapat hubungan antara penggunaan kasa anti nyamuk dengan kejadian DBD di Kelurahan 19 November Kabupaten Kolaka (p=0,008). ...
... bukan saat malam hari. 25,26 Hasil yang sama juga diperoleh pada sebuah penelitian di Lahore, Pakistan, dimana penduduk yang tidur dan tidak memasang kawat kasa pada pintu dan jendela rumah berisiko 4,82 kali terkena DBD dibandingkan yang memasang kawat kasa di pintu dan jendela rumah mereka (OR=4,82; 95% CI=1, [17][18][19]72). 27 Hasil yang sama juga didapatkan dalam penelitian Thammapalo, dkk di Thailand, yaitu besar risiko kejadian DBD pada rumah yang tidak memasang kawat kasa di jendela adalah 4 kali lipat, dibandingkan rumah yang memasang kawat kasa di jendela (OR=4.10). ...
... The first number of DHF sufferers was 58 people with 24 deaths (Case Fatality Rate 41.3%). 2 More than 2.5 billion people or 40% of total population in the world, around 50 million to 100 million people, are infected with the dengue virus every year with 22,000 deaths per year. 3 DHF cases can attack all age including children. The incidence of DHF is increasing throughout the world and several regions in Asia have become the main causes of dangerous diseases and child mortality. ...
Article
Introduction: Cases of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) are still one of the public health diseases that are widespread in the world including tropical and subtropical regions in Indonesia. One of the factors that influence DHF is prevention of DHF education for elementary school students considering the incidence of DHF is fluctuating and has the potential to attack children.Methods: A pre-experimental, with one group pre and post-test design. The sample of this research were 5th and 6th grade students of SDN Purwotengah II Mojokerto. There were 55 respondents with total sampling technique. Data collection was done by giving questionnaires at pretest, post-test 1, and post-test 2 after two days of education. Data analysis used Friedman test, followed by Wilcoxon test to find out different locations.Results: Based on Friedman test on pretest, post-test 1, and posttest 2 after two days of education, p value = 0.000 (p < 0.05). Followed by Wilcoxon test at pretest with post-test 1, p value = 0.000 (p < 0.05) and on post-test 1 with post-test 2 after two days of education, p value = 0.164 (p > 0.05)Conclusion: There was an effect of education on the knowledge of pretest, post-test 1 and post-test 2 after two days of education for students. The effect of education on the knowledge of pretest and post-test 1 contained differences in significance, while the effect of education on post-test 1 and post-test 2 after two days of education contained no difference in significance.
... Although vertical transmission has been mostly understudied in models of dengue, recent results [38] have demonstrated that vertical (transovarial) transmission has both primary and secondary effects in facilitating the invasion and persistence of novel strains of dengue. Dengue management policies exist virtually everywhere dengue fever is a major health concern, yet the fact that dengue outbreaks are increasing in severity and frequency suggests we need to better understand control strategies and how to evaluate them [44]. Among these features is vertical transmission which will be explored by considering a population that is impacted by two variants of the same serotype of dengue simultaneously: one that exhibits vertical transmission as a significant mode of disease transmission (DENV-2 Asian) and one that does not (DENV-2 American). ...
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In this work, a two-strain dengue model with vertical transmission in the mosquito population is considered. Although vertical transmission is often ignored in models of dengue fever, we show that effective control of an outbreak of dengue can depend on whether or not the vertical transmission is a significant mode of disease transmission. We model the effect of a control strategy aimed at reducing human-mosquito transmissions in an optimal control framework. As the likelihood of vertical transmission increases, outbreaks become more difficult and expensive to control. However, even for low levels of vertical transmission, the additional, uncontrolled, transmission from infected mosquito to eggs may undercut the effectiveness of any control function. This is of particular importance in regions where existing control policies may be effective and the endemic strain does not exhibit vertical transmission. If a novel strain that does exhibit vertical transmission invades, then existing, formerly effective, control policies may no longer be sufficient. Therefore, public health officials should pay more attention to the role of vertical transmission for more effective interventions and policy.
... In addition, the city has been affected by global warming that causes higher temperatures and storms, resulting in widespread flooding in the area, which has no proper method to disperse or drain or treat the water. These factors have resulted in Mexico being a high-risk area for dengue outbreaks [112]. ...
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Dengue infection is a mosquito-borne disease caused by dengue viruses, which are carried by several species of mosquito of the genus Aedes, principally Ae. aegypti. Dengue outbreaks are endemic in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world, mainly in urban and sub-urban areas. The outbreak is one of the top ten diseases causing the most deaths worldwide. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), dengue infection has increased 30-fold globally over the past five decades. About 50 to 100 million new infections occur annually in more than 80 countries. Many researchers are working on measures to prevent and control the spread. One avenue of research is collaboration between computer science and the epidemiology researchers in developing methods of predicting potential outbreaks of dengue infection. An important research objective is to develop models that enable, or enhance, forecasting of outbreaks of dengue, giving medical professionals the opportunity to develop plans for handling the outbreak, well in advance. Researchers have been gathering and analyzing data to better identify the relational factors driving the spread of the disease, as well as the development of a variety of methods of predictive modelling using statistical and mathematical analysis and Machine Learning. In this substantial review of the literature on the state of the art of research over the past decades, we identified six main issues to be explored and analyzed: (1) The available data sources, (2) Data preparation techniques, (3) Data representations, (4) Forecasting models and methods, (5) Dengue forecasting models evaluation approaches, and (6) Future challenges and possibilities in forecasting modelling of dengue outbreaks. Our comprehensive exploration of the issues provides a valuable information foundation for new researchers in this important area of public health research and epidemiology.
... In addition, the city has been affected by global warming that causes higher temperatures and storms, resulting in widespread flooding in the area, which has no proper method to disperse or drain or treat the water. These factors have resulted in Mexico being a high-risk area for dengue outbreaks [112]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Dengue infection is a mosquito-borne disease caused by dengue viruses, which are carried by several species of mosquito of the genus Aedes, principally Ae. aegypti. Dengue outbreaks are endemic in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world, mainly in urban and sub-urban areas. The outbreak is one of the top ten diseases causing the most deaths worldwide. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), dengue infection has increased 30-fold globally over the past five decades. About 50 to 100 million new infections occur annually in more than 80 countries. Many researchers are working on measures to prevent and control the spread. One avenue of research is collaboration between computer science and the epidemiology researchers in developing methods of predicting potential outbreaks of dengue infection. An important research objective is to develop models that enable, or enhance, forecasting of outbreaks of dengue, giving medical professionals the opportunity to develop plans for handling the outbreak, well in advance. Researchers have been gathering and analyzing data to better identify the relational factors driving the spread of the disease, as well as the development of a variety of methods of predictive modelling using statistical and mathematical analysis and Machine Learning. In this substantial review of the literature on the state of the art of research over the past decades, we identified six main issues to be explored and analyzed: (1) The available data sources, (2) Data preparation techniques, (3) Data representations, (4) Forecasting models and methods, (5) Dengue forecasting models evaluation approaches, and (6) Future challenges and possibilities in forecasting modelling of dengue outbreaks. Our comprehensive exploration of the issues provides a valuable information foundation for new researchers in this important area of public health research and epidemiology.
... Worldwide around 2.5 billion people live in dengue prone regions and about 100 million new cases are detected each year with 500000 cases of DHF and an estimated 22000 dengue-related deaths. [3] Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries. Recent demographic, geographic changes J. Evolution Med. ...
... 4,5 Both diseases cause similar initial nonspecific symptoms, such as systemic febrile illness, but possess drastically different potential complications. Infections with dengue virus (DENV) can result in dengue hemorrhagic fever 6 or dengue shock syndrome, which are both life-threatening, whereas Zika virus (ZIKV) infections have been linked to microcephaly in newborns 7,8 and other neurological manifestations such as Guillain-Barrésyndrome. 9 Zika and dengue can cocirculate geographically, as they share the same transmission vector of the Aedes genus mosquito. 10 This overlap in clinical presentations and geographic colocalization in endemic areas make it difficult to distinguish between their infections. ...
Article
Zika and dengue are mosquito-borne diseases that present similar non-specific symptoms but possess dramatically different outcomes. The first line of defense in epidemic outbreaks are rapid point of care diagnostics. Because many outbreaks occur in areas that are resource-poor, assays that are easy to use, inexpensive, and require no power have become invaluable in patient treatment, quarantining, and surveillance. Paper-based sandwich immunoassays such as lateral flow assays (LFA) are attractive as point-of-care solutions as they have the potential for wider deployability than lab-based assays such as PCR. However, their low sensitivity imposes limitations on their ability to detect low biomarker levels and for early diagnosis. Here, we exploit the high sensitivity of surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) in a multiplexed assay that can distinguish between Zika and Dengue NS1 biomarkers. SERS-encoded gold nanostars were conjugated to specific antibodies for both diseases and used in a dipstick immunoassay, which exhibited 15-fold lower detection limits for Zika NS1 and 7-fold for Dengue NS1. This platform combines the simplicity of a LFA with the high sensitivity of SERS and could potentially improve Zika diagnosis, but also detect diseases sooner after infection when biomarker levels are low.
... Nas últimas décadas, diversas doenças infecciosas tiveram sua incidência aumentada e expandida em novas áreas geográficas. 6 ...
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Introdução: A dengue é uma doença infecciosa febril de evolução aguda causada por vírus e transmitida ao homem através da picada do inseto fêmea do Aedes aegypti. Focar em manifestações orais em se tratando de dengue, não é algo comum na literatura científica. Assim, o paciente pode apresentar sintomas os quais podem passar despercebidos por profissionais de Odontologia. Objetivo: Revisar através da literatura as manifestações orais relacionadas com a dengue. Método: Busca extensiva por periódicos nas bases de dados eletrônicas SciELO, PubMed, Lilacs, e Ebsco nos meses de janeiro à março de 2016, utilizando como descritores: dengue, manifestações orais, Odontologia. Revisão de Literatura: Poucos trabalhos na literatura se dedicaram a investigar as manifestações orais da dengue. Entretanto, pacientes acometidos com esta condição podem vir a apresentar entre outras coisas sangramento gengival agudo, xerostomia, alterações no paladar, e desconforto faríngeo ao deglutir. Conclusão: Uma vez que o diagnóstico precoce desempenha papel fundamental ao tratamento das doenças, manifestações mucocutâneas orais podem representar um fator relevante ao reconhecimento da dengue.
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Jumlah kasus DBD paling banyak terjadi di Jawa Timur, Jawa Barat dan Jawa Tengah. Namun, terdapat sejumlah provinsi yang tergolong rawan karena memiliki tingkat Incidence Rate DBD yang tinggi
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OBJECTIVE: Novel, inexpensive solutions are needed for improved management of vector-borne and other diseases in resource-poor environments. Emerging free software providing access to satellite imagery and simple editing tools (e.g. Google EarthTM) complement existing geographic information system (GIS) software and provide new opportunities for: (i) strengthening overall public health capacity through development of information for city infrastructures; and (ii) display of public health data directly on an image of the physical environment. METHODS: We used freely accessible satellite imagery and a set of feature-making tools included in the software (allowing for production of polygons, lines and points) to generate information for city infrastructure and to display disease data in a dengue decision support system (DDSS) framework. FINDINGS: Two cities in Mexico (Chetumal and Merida) were used to demonstrate that a basic representation of city infrastructure useful as a spatial backbone in a DDSS can be rapidly developed at minimal cost. Data layers generated included labelled polygons representing city blocks, lines representing streets, and points showing the locations of schools and health clinics. City blocks were colour-coded to show presence of dengue cases. The data layers were successfully imported in a format known as shapefile into a GIS software. CONCLUSION: The combination of Google EarthTM and free GIS software (e.g. HealthMapper, developed by WHO, and SIGEpi, developed by PAHO) has tremendous potential to strengthen overall public health capacity and facilitate decision support system approaches to prevention and control of vector-borne diseases in resource-poor environments.
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A dengue-2 epidemic causing dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) occurred in the contiguous border cities of Matamoros, Tamaulipas (Mexico), and Brownsville, TX, in 2005. In December, we conducted a household-based epidemiologic survey to determine the incidence and seroprevalence of dengue infection among Matamoros and Brownsville residents and to identify risk factors associated with infection. Antibodies to dengue were measured in 273 individuals. The estimated incidence of recent dengue infection was 32% and 4% among Matamoros and Brownsville participants, respectively. The estimated prevalence of past dengue infection was 77% and 39% among Matamoros and Brownsville participants, respectively. The Breteau index was 28 in Matamoros and 16 in Brownsville, reflecting an abundant winter population of Aedes mosquitoes. Discarded waste tires and buckets were the two largest categories of infested containers found in both cities. Our results underscore the risk for epidemic dengue and DHF in the Texas-Mexico border region. Copyright © 2008 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
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Dengue fever is the most significant mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is a leading cause of childhood deaths and hospitalizations in many countries. Variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters, affect the dengue viruses and their principal mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, but few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships at the global scale. Here we use a numerical model to simulate the response of Ae. aegypti to observed climatic variations from 1958 to 1995 and to examine how modelled Ae. aegypti populations may be related to dengue and DHF cases worldwide. We find that variations in climate can induce large variations in modelled Ae. aegypti populations at the global scale. Furthermore, these climate-induced variations in modelled Ae. aegypti populations are strongly correlated to reported historical dengue/DHF cases, especially in Central America and Southeast Asia. These results suggest that potential dengue caseloads could be anticipated using seasonal climate forecasts to drive the mosquito model, thus providing a useful tool in public health management.
Article
Human-induced changes in the global climate system pose a range of health risks. Irrespective of any actions, which may soon be taken to reduce or halt these environmental changes, human populations will be exposed to some degree of climate change over the coming decades. Objectives: In June 2001 the EC funded project (EVK-2000-00070) started to a) to identify the vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate change on human health; b) to review current measures, technologies, policies and barriers to improve the adaptive capacity of human populations to climate change; c) to identify for European populations the most appropriate measures, technologies and policies, as well as the most effective approaches to implementation, in order to successfully adapt to climate change; d) to provide estimates of the health benefits of specific strategies or combinations of strategies for adaptation for vulnerable populations under different climate change scenarios; e) to estimate the costs (due to climate-related damage and the implementation of adaptive measures) and benefits (both of climate change and of adaptation strategies) including co-benefits independent of climate change Methods: In order to reach the objectives, epidemiological methods from time series analysis to event-based assessments have been used to identify populations at risk and to estimate the health impacts of weather, climate variability and potential changes. The presentation will deal with the different methods used as well as illustrate some results. Results: The attribution of health outcomes to climate change is difficult. Most of our knowledge and methods deal with health impacts of particular weather parameters. There is a need of further better integrated assessment tools. The assistance of many other scientists will be acknowledged during the presentation.