THE GROWTH LOBBY AND ITS ABSENCE

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Abstract
This thesis compares population policy and demographic outcomes in France and Australia from 1945 taking into consideration projections to 2050. These features are analysed using a theoretical approach derived from James Q. Wilson and Gary Freeman, flagging focused benefits/costs and diffuse benefits/costs of population growth, including growth fueled by immigration. This analysis is framed by the New Ecological Paradigm developed by Dunlap and Catton. The oil shock of 1973 is identified as a major turning point where French and Australian policy directions and demographic trends diverge, notably on immigration. It is established that in both countries there was a will for population stabilisation and energy conservation, which succeeded in France. In Australia, however, a strong, organised growth lobby over-rode this Malthusian tendency. A major force for growth lay in the speculative property development and housing industries. The specific qualities of the Australian land development planning and housing system facilitated
THE GROWTH LOBBY AND ITS
ABSENCE:
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE
PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING
INDUSTRIES AND IMMIGRATION
POLICY IN AUSTRALIA AND FRANCE
1945-2000 WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2050
M.A. by Research, Swinburne University, Victoria, 2002
By Sheila Newman
http://www.alphalink.com.au/~smnaesp/population
speculation.htm
http://www.alphalink.com.au/~smnaesp/population,land,biodiv
ersity.htm
ABSTRACT
This thesis compares population policy and demographic outcomes in France and
Australia from 1945 taking into consideration projections to 2050. These features are
analysed using a theoretical approach derived from James Q. Wilson and Gary Freeman,
flagging focused benefits/costs and diffuse benefits/costs of population growth,
including growth fueled by immigration. This analysis is framed by the New
Ecological Paradigm developed by Dunlap and Catton.
The oil shock of 1973 is identified as a major turning point where French and Australian
policy directions and demographic trends diverge, notably on immigration.
It is established that in both countries there was a will for population stabilisation and
energy conservation, which succeeded in France. In Australia, however, a strong,
organised growth lobby over-rode this Malthusian tendency. A major force for growth
lay in the speculative property development and housing industries. The specific
qualities of the Australian land development planning and housing system facilitated
ii
land speculation. Speculative opportunity and profits were increased by population
growth and, with decreasing fertility rates, the industries concerned relied increasingly
on high immigration rates. In France, to the contrary, the land development planning
and housing industries had no similar dependency on immigration and, since the oil
shock, have adapted to a declining population growth rate.
The author concludes that France has a relatively Malthusian economy and that
Australia has a relatively Cornucopian one. These observations may be extrapolated
respectively to non-English speaking Western European States and to English Speaking
Settler States.
Speculative benefits from population growth/immigration are illustrated by
demonstrating a relationship between ratcheting property price inflation in high
overseas immigration cities in Australia and the near absence of this inflation in low
growth areas. In contrast this ratcheting effect is absent in France and French cities
where population growth and immigration have little influence on the property market.
The research suggests that speculative benefits of high population growth have been
magnified by globalisation of the property market and that these rising stakes are likely
to increase the difficulty of population stabilisation and energy conservation under the
Australian land development and planning system.
The thesis contains a substantial appendix analysing and comparing French and
Australian demographic and energy use statistics.
iii
PART I................................................................................................. 1
CHAPTER ONE - INTRODUCTION ...................................................... 1
World Population, International Migration and Economic Policies:
Emerging Differences................................................................................................... 1
France and Australia : Differences and Similarities before the 1973
Oil Shock............................................................................................................................. 5
France and Australia 1974 : The Aftermath of the First Oil Shock...... 7
Immigration:..................................................................................................................................7
Land Development Planning and Housing: ...................................................................................7
A New Subject of Sociological Comparison in Immigration Research.........................................8
Research question and Argument Outline...............................................................10
Outline of Structure and Contents of this Thesis..................................................13
CHAPTER TWO - BACKGROUND THEORY AND LITERATURE
REVIEW - THE NEW ECOLOGICAL PARADIGM.................................. 16
Environmental Sociological Theory.................................................................... 16
New Ecological (Environmental) Paradigms:.............................................................................16
The Ecological Footprint .............................................................................................................20
Energy and Oil Shocks............................................................................................... 21
CHAPTER THREE - BACKGROUND THEORY AND LITERATURE
REVIEW - LAND DEVELOPMENT SYSTEMS, HOUSING AND THE
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY...................................... 23
Systems of Land Development Planning.......................................................... 23
Australia.......................................................................................................................................24
France ..........................................................................................................................................27
Public and Private Housing Policy....................................................................... 29
The Residential Construction Industry.........................................................................................30
Land-use Planning for Biodiversity Habitat Needs..................................... 35
Biodiversity and Habitat Preservation as a Sociological Concern .............................................35
Ecological Theory of Biodiversity Habitat Needs ........................................................................35
History of Biodiversity and Habitat Theory : Ecological Darwinism..........................................37
History of Ecological Darwinism in Australia Leading to Early Formation of National Parks...37
Modern Theory : Island Biogeography and Land Planning for Species Diversity.......................39
Fig. 3.1. Maps showing progress of Reduction and Fragmentation of woodland due to land
clearing for agriculture, roads, housing etc..............................................................................40
Australian Eco-Malthusian Literature..........................................................................................41
Fig. 3.2. Map of land clearing and vegetation disturbance in Australia......................................45
Fig. 3.3. "Pre-European broad vegetation types"......................................................................46
Fig. 3.4. "Present Day Broad Vegetation types". ......................................................................48
Fig. 3.5 Map of Victoria and Koala sightings. ...........................................................................49
CHAPTER FOUR - APPROACHES TO MIGRATION : A REVIEW OF
THE TRADITIONAL LITERATURE...................................................... 51
Introduction..................................................................................................................... 51
Population Numbers and Environmental Considerations ............................................................51
iv
Immigration and the Question of Total Population Numbers in France and Australia................53
Works on Australia....................................................................................................... 54
Works dealing with incentives and disincentives for immigration..............................................54
The Role of Liberal Democracies, Civil Rights and the Intellectual New Class in
Institutionalising Immigration (Australia) ...................................................................................56
Works on France............................................................................................................ 58
Immigration as a response to citizenship.....................................................................................58
Elite Power Groups (France) .......................................................................................................59
Housing : Immigrant integration and housing as a political or logistical disincentive to
immigration..................................................................................................................................60
Was France's Immigration Policy a Populationist or a Temporary Worker Immigration Policy?
(France)........................................................................................................................................64
The Role of Racialism (France)...................................................................................................69
International Comparative Works involving Australia and/or France71
The role of Racialism (International)...........................................................................................71
An Economic Explanation for both promoting and discouraging Immigration...........................75
The Role of Liberal Democracies, Civil Rights and the Intellectual New Class in
Institutionalising Immigration......................................................................................................77
How is it that politicians and the political process become influenced to change immigration
policy after 1973? Electoral process contrasted with Elite Power Group theory.......................79
Housing : Immigrant integration and housing as a political or logistical disincentive to
immigration (International)..........................................................................................................82
Problems with statistics in analysing trends in immigration and housing....................................84
Conclusion...................................................................................................................................90
CHAPTER FIVE - MAIN THEORY AND METHOD................................ 94
Gary Freeman's Theory of Concentrated and Diffuse Benefits and
Concentrated and Diffuse Costs of Immigration ......................................... 94
CHAPTER SIX - HISTORY CHAPTER............................................... 102
Purpose of this Chapter........................................................................................... 102
History of the Populationist Property Development and Housing
Lobby in Australia....................................................................................................... 102
The Gold Rush and the Land Boom 1860-1890 ........................................................................102
The Land Crash and the rise of the Population Boosters...........................................................104
Table 6.1. Australia and her States: Rate of Population Growth (Per Cent) 1861-1950 (Annual
Averages)...............................................................................................................................105
Connections between the Land Crash and Members of the Royal Commission into the Decline in
the Birth Rate in New South Wales (RCDBR) 1904.................................................................106
Table 6.2. Some Business Connections of the members of the Royal Commission into the
Decline in the New South Wales Birth Rate (1904)...................................................................108
Organisational Affiliations of members of the RCDBR............................................................109
Recommendations of the RCDBR.............................................................................................110
Colonialism at variance with a big local market........................................................................112
The First World War (1914-1918), Returned Soldier Farmers and the Great Depression.........112
After the Second World War .....................................................................................................113
The Populationnist Property Development and Housing Lobby in
Australia Today............................................................................................................ 115
Composition and characteristics................................................................................................115
Table 6.3 Top Australian Companies in Developing and Contracting or in Building Materials by
Sector, Market Capitalisation and Return on Assets. ..............................................................117
Some Modern Australian Population Boosters..........................................................................119
v
The Absence of a Populationist Property Development and Housing
Lobby in France........................................................................................................... 125
In the absence of a property development lobby for immigration,
what drove immigration in France until 1974?........................................... 126
Immigration Before 1945...........................................................................................................127
Immigration Policy : 1945-1954:...............................................................................................129
Long-term outcomes of early policies........................................................................................132
Housing Issues and Immigration: 1945-1955:...........................................................................133
Immigration policy: 1955-1974:................................................................................................133
Housing Issues and Immigration 1955-1974:............................................................................137
Immigration policy : 1974 to the close of the 20
th
Century........................................................137
Legal Interventions on behalf of specific immigrants................................................................139
Housing Issues and Immigration: 1974 to the Close of the 20
th
Century:..................................140
Why did immigration continue in the form of family reunion and
asylum seekers in France after 1974?............................................................ 141
History of Family Reunion legislative issues post oil shock: ....................................................142
Asylum Policy legislative issues:...............................................................................................143
Conclusion.................................................................................................................................144
PART II - EVIDENCE........................................................................ 145
Introduction to Part II:........................................................................................................145
CHAPTER SEVEN............................................................................ 148
The Role of Energy Policy in Producing Economic Expansion or
Consolidation................................................................................................................ 148
Different Economic Approaches................................................................................................148
Comparative Oil Economics......................................................................................................148
France's Approach to Oil Economics.........................................................................................149
Australia's Approach to Oil Economics.....................................................................................150
Social Impacts............................................................................................................................152
Reasons for Connections made to Housing and Demographics.................................................153
The Role of Land Production, the Housing Construction Industry,
and Public Housing in Immigration Policy..................................................... 155
Land Ownership and Development: France...............................................................................155
Land Ownership and Development: Australia:..........................................................................155
Public Housing:..........................................................................................................................157
The Role of Property Development and Housing in Immigration
Policy................................................................................................................................. 159
Relationships Between Energy, Economy, Housing and Immigration
Post 1974 in France and Australia.................................................................... 163
Importation of Construction Industry Workers : France and Australia......................................163
The Boom and Bust Character of the Australian Housing Industry Contrasted with France's and
the importation of skilled and unskilled labour..........................................................................164
Reaction to the First Oil Shock in France..................................................................................165
Why did France Drastically Reduce Immigration in 1974?................... 167
Initial Reaction in Australia to the First Oil-Shock................................... 171
Policy Implementation and Outcomes in France and Australia........ 176
Fig. 7.1 France : Total Oil Consumption and Total Population, 1965-1997...............................178
Fig. 7.2 Australia: Total Oil Consumption and Total Population Growth. ...............................179
Changes to the Residential Construction Industry in France after 1973....................................180