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The causes and prevention of crowd disasters
Abstract
Crowds occur frequently, usually without serious problems. Occasionally venue inadequacies and deficient crowd management result in injuries and fatalities. Major crowd incidents are described. Extreme crowding results in individual loss of control, and both psychological and physiological problems. A simple model with the acronym "FIST" is proposed to provide a basic understanding of crowd disasters. The acronym elements are defined as the crowd Force (F); the Information (I) upon which the crowd acts; the physical Space (S) involved, both in terms of individual density and larger scale architectural features; and Time (T), the duration of the incident. The model is used to illustrate crowd characteristics and to develop guidelines for the prevention of crowd disasters. It is concluded that real time information and communication are key factors in preventing crowd disasters. The formal certification of crowd manager for venues of 500 persons or more is recommended.
... On the other hand, the primary complexity in modeling dense crowds stems from understanding the formation and impact of crowd pressure and turbulence. These characteristic flocking patterns in crowd dynamics, which directly trigger stampedes and related fatalities, are influenced by numerous physical and psychological factors [14,15]. ...
... Considering that individuals' intentions are unlikely to disrupt the fluid-like movement of a crowd when its density increases to over 7 ped/m 2 [14], the hydrodynamics of dense crowds have been extensively studied and verified by numerous researchers [9,23,24]. In accordance with this, this study introduced a novel hydrodynamic analysis framework that leverages the mixed-type continuum model [25]. ...
... • The critical value of density that allows crowd turbulence to arise, which is denoted as ρ 1 , adopts 8 ped/m 2 . According to empirical observations [14,16], crowd turbulence is observed at approximately 7 * 12 ped/m 2 . ...
As the world steadily recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, managing large gatherings becomes a critical concern for ensuring crowd safety. The crowd-crush disaster in Seoul in 2022 highlights the need for effective predictive crowd management techniques. In this study, an empirical analysis of this incident is conducted using data from various sources, and model-based simulations are created to replicate hazardous crowd conditions in high-risk areas. In the empirical analysis, mobile device data indicates a significant increase in population above normal levels in the disaster area just hours before the incident occurred. In the simulations, a hydrodynamic model is employed to simulate a bidirectional collision, which quantitatively demonstrates that the average density during the crush reached 7.57 ped/m² (with a maximum of (9.95)ped/m²). Additionally, the average crowd pressure peaked at 1,063 N/m (with a maximum of 1,961 N/m), and the maximum velocity entropy was 10.99. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that the primary causes of the disaster were the substantial population, bidirectional collision, and escalating panic. The results of controlled simulations under various management strategies are then presented. By implementing effective crowd management techniques, crowd safety can be enhanced through quantitative comparisons of these key indicators.
... There exists several academic research on the study of pedestrian behavior at different crowd gathering sites [13,18,23,27,31,36,51,52]. Shopping malls, metro stations, airports, football stadiums, sites of festival gathering (Hajj, Love Parade, Notting Hill Carnival), and others are the sites considered in these studies. ...
... In some research works [18,27,36,54], researchers have studied the fundamental and mathematical concepts behind the crowd's behavior. They formulated various dynamic features of the crowd, such as speed density relationship, crowd flow rate, capacity bottlenecks, etc., based on the behavior of individuals in the crowd. ...
... Collisions that pilgrims avoid with other entities are such as walls, barricades, any other physical structure, or individuals. Apart from this, studies done in [18,54] show that an area with more than 4 persons m 2 is at high risk in terms of crowd crushing or asphyxiation. Therefore, we have considered 4 persons m 2 as an alarming situation and the density threshold in our simulation experiments. ...
Kumbh-Mela of Prayagraj, India, a festival of faith and belief, is one of the many significant gathering events worldwide. Pilgrims arrive from different places to take a holy bath at the confluence point of 3-rivers the Ganges, Yamuna, and Sarasvati. The police department is assigned a major role of handling and managing the dense traffic of pilgrims in this event to avoid unwanted situations. The primary surveillance points are the intersecting junctions and bathing zones. In addition, the authorities make crowd movement plans with different route diversion schemes and sets bathing time intervals to maintain crowd density at the Kumbh Mela site. Significantly, we must test these crowd management plans for a realistic assessment of population count, density maintenance, and time management. In this paper, we have created a model utilizing a micro-modeling agent-based approach that incorporates the virtual environment of the site. We have used AnyLogic, a ABMS tool, to incorporate social forces and stochastic behavior among the synthetic agents. The model simulates different crowd movement plans according to real behavioral scenarios. In the simulation, we have considered the whole bathing procedure as a halt time in the area. We have utilized our model to evaluate the time consumed by the pilgrims to reach “Ghat”. Also, to count the number of pilgrims that took a bath in 12 hours on different time intervals set for bathing. The significance of performing these evaluations is to assess the effect on density at the site during the whole arrival, bathing, and departure process.
... For example, 22 people died at a crush at a football match in Cameroon (BBC, 2022), 45 deaths occurred at a religious festival in Israel (Estrin, 2021), and 10 people died at the Astroworld music festival in Texas (Guardian, 2021). The persistence of these incidents, despite advances in crowd dynamics (Fruin, 1993;Helbing & Mukerji, 2012;Still, 2014) and the refutation of 'mass panic' psychological explanations of crowd behaviour in emergencies (Gantt & Gantt, 2012;Quarantelli, 2001), indicates a gap in our understanding. This paper addresses this gap by using archive data to analyse behaviour and experiences in the 1943 Bethnal Green tube shelter disaster, a key historical crowd event which like many such events is often characterized as a 'stampede' induced by mass panic (Clark, 2020;Skoulding, 2019). ...
... In doing so, the term obscures the cause of deaths through inaccurate description of people's behaviour. Fruin (1993) suggests compressive asphyxiation is the cause of 'virtually all crowd [disaster] deaths' (p. 5), not running and trampling as implied by the term 'stampede'. ...
... Previous accounts from outside psychology of the causes of crowd disasters suggest that dangerous density is a function of failures of crowd safety management (e.g. Fruin, 1993;Helbing & Mukerji, 2012). We suggest there were the other key causal factors explaining the disaster at Bethnal Green. ...
The Bethnal Green tube shelter disaster, in which 173 people died, is a significant event in both history and psychology. While notions of 'panic' and 'stampede' have been discredited in contemporary psychology and disaster research as explanations for crowd crushes, Bethnal Green has been put forward as the exception that proves the rule. Alternative explanations for crushing disasters focus on mismanagement and physical factors, and lack a psychology. We analysed 85 witness statements from the Bethnal Green tragedy to develop a new psychological account of crowd disasters. Contrary to the established view of the Bethnal Green disaster as caused by widespread public overreaction to the sound of rockets, our analysis suggests that public perceptions were contextually calibrated to a situation of genuine threat; that only a small minority misperceived the sound; and that therefore, this cannot account for the surge behaviour in the majority. We develop a new model, in which crowd flight behaviour in response to threat is normatively structured rather than uncontrolled, and in which crowd density combines with both limited information on obstruction and normatively expected ingress behaviour to create a crushing disaster.
... Whereas crowd management is defined as the systematic planning and supervision of the orderly movement and assembly of people, it involves the assessment of people who handle capabilities of a space which is prior to use [2]. ...
... Most of the crowd disasters that have occurred before could have been prevented by the application of simple crowd management strategies, where the main aim of the crowd management is to avoid the critical crowd densities and the rapid movements of groups [2]. ...
... Incidence Accident risk factors (column 6) Event type (column 11) unknown (0) unknown (0) bridge (1) club (1) capacity (2) concert (2) crowd wanting to get in (3) donation (3) crowd wanting to get out (4) fireworks (4) dark (5) mall (5) locked gates (6) other (6) mass panic (7) political (7) muddy, slippery ground (8) religious (8) other obstacles (e.g. luggage) (9) sports (9) police measure (10) transport (10) returning crowd (11) university (11) slippery stairs, ramp (12) stairs, slope (13) tear gas, pepper spray (14) tunnel (15) After subtracting the duplicates, the number of these events from the sources is 79. Thus, the shape of a total of 79 different A matrices is: ...
... Ngai et al. When analyzing 40 accidents caused by crowd compression in India between 2001 and 2010 using the Ngai method[28], the Median Fatalities (IQR) was 5.5(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17), and when analyzed using the Roy method, it was 5. The Median Injuries (IQR) value was 13.5 (5-31) using the Ngai method and 17 (10-45.5) ...
Introduction
Analysis of crowd accidents contributes to accident prevention. Therefore, we employ a tensor-based approach. The innovative tensor-based approach facilitates the streamlining of longitudinal studies, promotes error detection, and enhances the transparency and traceability of data collection. This study focuses on crowd accidents, the direct cause of which is the movement of the crowd (Excluding other external factors: e.g. fire, structural damage.). It aims at investigating the reliability of the records documented in relation to crowd accidents and the type of repetitions that can be found in the events.
Materials and methods
The study employed a web-based retrospective methodology with innovative tensor-based analysis, examining 186 fatal crowd accidents from 1979 to 2023. Data was collected from public sources, including news reports, government reports, and scientific publications. The analysis considered the following variables: event type, place, date, number of victims, cause, environmental characteristics, date and reliability of documented information source origination. Tensor-based method combines the improvement of the quality of the coverage and investigates changes in content over time. The seven-step method, which stores information about crowd accidents in matrices, is presented here in detail. The vcr factor is introduced to evaluate the credibility of sources.
Results
The results show that those news items about crowd accidents are the most reliable which were created 2 years after the events. Crowd accidents are analyzed based on their influencing defining characteristics. We claim that we were able to isolate new risk factors related to the locations of crowd accidents. Globally, we focus on accidents that occurred during donation distributions and when entering buildings.
Conclusion
It can be concluded that the new, seven-step, tensor-based data collection method improves the credibility value of individual information by more than 25 %. The impact of accident factors plays a key role in establishing risk factors and in the prevention of accidents. The tensor-based approach can be directly applied to record databases, enhance data provenance, and capture the temporal evolution of information.
... Since both event safety and health safety concepts involve event visitors, it is useful to take the phases of an event considered in crowd management as a frame: ingress, circulation and egress (e.g. Fruin, 2002;Rainieri, 2016;Rutherford Silvers and O'Toole, 2021;Still et al., 2020). Interactions between safety and health are likely here. ...
... To meet the respective goal, both event subsystems (event and health safety) take technical, organisational and personal measures in the course of their mission to achieve their goal in the certain phase (see also Schütte and Willmes, 2022;Fruin, 2002;Rainieri, 2016;Rutherford Silvers and O'Toole, 2021;Still et al., 2020): ...
Purpose
Between 2020 and spring 2022, health safety was the new pressing concern among the risks at major events. It seemed that it – respectively hygiene as part of infection control – was as important as event safety if an event in Germany was to be approved. Problems aroused in terms of an equal implementation in practice. This article therefore addresses how safety and hygiene aspects interacted during event planning and implementation phases.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors draw on qualitative data from a German research project. They use results from eleven semi-structured expert interviews and four field observations at major events. One guiding assumption in the content analysis is that there are major interrelations between event and health safety concepts, which become visible during planning and the implementation of event-related technical, organisational and personal measures.
Findings
The empirical data shows that hygiene is not perceived as an integral part of event safety, but rather as a disconnected pillar beside the “classical” event safety. This is reflected in an imbalanced attention as well as in separate, disintegrated concepts. This disconnectedness leaves room for unwanted interplays between event and health safety as well as potential legitimacy facades.
Originality/value
Most studies to date focus on the effectiveness of hygiene concepts and impacts of COVID-19 on the event sector in general without taking a closer look at interactions between event safety and health safety.
... Consistency in the positioning of individuals will likely increase either (or both) of the above, as the predictability of neighbours' movements may reduce the risk of collisions (increasing the confidence of movement decisions [63]), and also the predictability and general homogeneity in the airflow left in the wake of other pigeons. Thus allowing birds to fly faster, and in more tightly compact groups, without necessitating concurrent increases in energetic output [33,45], which will likely be adaptive when energetic constraints represent a substantial selective pressure [5,14,64]. ...
... Effective use of space can be important in terrestrial animals too, including humans. In human crowd disasters, for example, movement pathways and space use have been identified to influence the chances of stampede [63]. Additionally, turning movements can cause trampling and stampede in humans [93], and ants [94]. ...
Animals are characterised, in part, by their use of voluntary movement, which is used to explore and exploit resources from their surrounding environment. Movement can therefore benefit animals, but will cost them their energetic reserves. Thus, adaptations for faster movements with negligible increases in energy expenditure will likely evolve via natural selection. Individual and social-level mechanisms have been shown to optimise this speed/energetic trade-off. Nevertheless, studies of social-level traits typically ignore individual variation, which is a cornerstone principle in evolutionary ecology. Furthermore, how individual phenotype interacts with the phenotypic composition of the group to govern the cost of transport may have been entirely overlooked. We investigate speed and the energetic consequences of individual-level phenotypic differences using body mass (both natural and artificially manipulated with additional weights) of homing pigeons (Columba livia) (N =16 birds; N = 193 useable flight trajectories). We then turn to social level phenomena, and manipulate the composition of pigeon groups by body mass (N= 12 birds in four treatments; N = 192 useable flight trajectories) and leadership rank (N = 30 birds in three groups, N = 286 useable flight trajectories) following earlier leadership identification flights (N = 33 birds, N = 306 useable flight trajectories). Natural body mass was predictive of flying speed in solo flights, but not in groups of greater mass by composition; artificial mass loading had no impact on speed in solo fliers, and was not tested in groups. Groups of leader phenotypes, showed faster speeds, and greater cohesion than follower phenotype groups, both in terms of flock spread, but also in consistency of positioning within the flock (flock stasis) across the flight. Flock stasis was further analysed across all other group flights. Its positive impact on speed was found to be consistent across all experimental treatments. Therefore, predicting flock stasis may be critical to understanding optimal phenotypic compositions of birds, and thus the social evolution of birds which fly together. We provide evidence that greater stasis may be driven by phenotypic compositions (i.e. groups of leaders, and homogeneous mass groups) and also discuss the implications of stasis for different flocking structures (e.g. V-formations) and human crowd control.
... Deben ser considerados en el proceso de planificación del evento, si bien la propia singularidad de cada uno de los encuentros deberá tenerse en cuenta como criterio para la adopción de medidas específicas. De la misma forma, puede ser de valor conocer que el riesgo asociado a la concentración de personas es, para los asistentes y responsables de seguridad participantes del estudio, el mayor riesgo percibido, existiendo modelos académicos propuestos para poder reducirlo (Still, 2014;Fruin, 1993). Todavía falta por conocer el posible impacto perceptivo que supondrá la aparición del COVID-19 a nivel de valoración de riesgos y elementos, aunque por lo recogido en los primeros estudios académicos y por las características del propio virus, es probable que la concentración de personas y la necesidad de su ordenación sigan destacando (Templeton y Dang, 2020), algo para lo que ya existen guías de recomendaciones y buenas prácticas (Valera et al., 2020). ...
... En cualquier caso, recientes estudios concretan que los asistentes reciben de manera favorable la implementación de medidas para reducir ese riesgo, siendo necesaria su correcta comunicación (Templeton y Dang, 2020), algo que concuerda con lo mostrado en los datos de la investigación. Gracias a la correcta transmisión de la información relativa a las medidas, aspecto que también toca con la responsabilidad legal y la necesidad de comunicar todos los riesgos posibles asociados a su comportamiento (Fruin, 1993), se consigue una mejor experiencia del asistente. De su correcta implementación también dependen unos correctos tiempos de espera que no deben afectar al propio evento y, en consecuencia, al estado de ánimo y las emociones del público (Berlonghi, 1994). ...
La celebración de eventos es una de las estrategias de las relaciones públicas más utilizadas y con un mayor crecimiento. Para el correcto desarrollo de los encuentros y para garantizar la consecución de los objetivos planteados, se deberá tener en cuenta el valor de la seguridad y la prevención para los asistentes y participantes. Tanto a nivel español como a nivel internacional, se viene registrando un incremento del número de eventos celebrados a la vez que aumenta en muchos territorios la percepción de inseguridad provocada por múltiples factores como el terrorismo, la inestabilidad social, las crisis sanitarias o los incidentes causados por la concentración de personas. La investigación realizada persigue la identificación de diferentes problemáticas y amenazas para la seguridad de los eventos, así como el análisis de los elementos que contribuyen, a nivel perceptivo y operativo, a aumentar la seguridad en este tipo de actos.
... Children were given the same PS radius as adults but rendered with weaker Voronoi cones (i.e. further away from the PSM top view camera) to reflect the increased the chance of being overpowered by adult personal spaces or getting swept away by strong crowd flow in dense settings [10,54]. The obstacles could be procedurally drawn during runtime; or loaded from a bitmap (e.g. ...
... At less than 3 ft 2 of personal space per entity, the crowd reaches a critical density [23], where entities are subjected to enough pressure to cause significant discomfort and injury, with potential injury at < 2 ft 2 . This is a concern in large-event contingency planning, and simulation can help identify pockets of potentially unsafe accumulation and overcrowding of attendees [10]. Figure 19 shows such behavior in a virtual crowd of 1000 entities in a confined area. ...
Crowd simulation demands careful consideration in regard to the classic trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. Particle-based methods have seen success in various applications in architecture, military, urban planning, and entertainment. This method focuses on local dynamics of individuals in large crowds, with a focus on serious games and entertainment. The technique uses an area-based penalty force that captures the infringement of each entity's personal space. This method does not need a costly nearest-neighbor search and allows for an inherently data-parallel implementation capable of simulating thousands of entities at interactive frame rates. The algorithm reproduces personal space compression around motion barriers for moving crowds and around points of interest for static crowds.
... Crowd Management, oder das Management von Menschenmengen, bezieht sich auf alle Maßnahmen und Vorkehrungen zur Lenkung von Menschenmengen (Berlonghi 1993;Fruin 1993 Natürlich können und müssen Veranstalter nicht die einzelnen Besucher kennen -aber Annahmen wie "ist doch klar, dass Besucher dies oder das wollen", "sieht doch jeder, dass …", "das würde doch niemand machen…" sollten hinterfragt werden, weil sie andeuten, dass eigene Erfahrungen verallgemeinert werden. Insbesondere, wenn die Veranstalter ihre BesucherInnen nicht gut kennen (weil eine Veranstaltung das "erste Mal" durchgeführt wird), sollten die Bedürfnisse und Besonderheiten der vorhersehbaren Zielgruppen systematisch bedacht werden. ...
... Information bzw. Kommunikation spielen deshalb eine entscheidende Rolle, um mögliche Gefährdungen in großen Menschenmengen zu vermeiden (Fruin 1993 ...
Für eine sichere Veranstaltung sind vier Einflussbereiche „Anlass und Art der Veranstaltung“ „Umwelt und Infrastruktur“, „Risiken und Gefahren“ sowie „Menschen“ im Zusammenhang und über die Phasen einer Veranstaltung hinweg zu betrachten, auch in Sicherheitskonzepten. Eventmanagement und Besuchersicherheit brauchen Wissen über Menschen, ihre Bedürfnisse und Verhaltensweisen, um Veranstaltungen besser an BesucherInnen anzupassen. Dies gilt für präventive (Crowd Management) wie für restriktivere Maßnahmen (Crowd Control) der Besuchersicherheit. Die Veranstaltungspraxis kann Erkenntnisse aus Human Factors-Psychologie und Sozialwissenschaften für das Wohlergehen und die Sicherheit der BesucherInnen nutzen und sie sogar als Sicherheitsakteure einbinden. Dazu werden in diesem Beitrag Themen wie Gruppen, Stimmung und Verhalten von Menschenmengen vorgestellt und zugehörige Theorien (z.B. soziale Identität) sowie Erkenntnisse zur psychologischen Dichte (Crowding) und zu Informationsbedürfnissen von BesucherInnen.
... Crowd Management, oder das Management von Menschenmengen, bezieht sich auf alle Maßnahmen und Vorkehrungen zur Lenkung von Menschenmengen (Berlonghi 1993;Fruin 1993 Natürlich können und müssen Veranstalter nicht die einzelnen Besucher kennen -aber Annahmen wie "ist doch klar, dass Besucher dies oder das wollen", "sieht doch jeder, dass …", "das würde doch niemand machen…" sollten hinterfragt werden, weil sie andeuten, dass eigene Erfahrungen verallgemeinert werden. Insbesondere, wenn die Veranstalter ihre BesucherInnen nicht gut kennen (weil eine Veranstaltung das "erste Mal" durchgeführt wird), sollten die Bedürfnisse und Besonderheiten der vorhersehbaren Zielgruppen systematisch bedacht werden. ...
... Information bzw. Kommunikation spielen deshalb eine entscheidende Rolle, um mögliche Gefährdungen in großen Menschenmengen zu vermeiden (Fruin 1993 ...
Durch Digitalisierung und steigende Erwartungen von Stake- und Shareholdern unterzieht sich auch der Eventbereich einem dynamischen Wandel. Es gibt mittlerweile diverse Ratschläge dafür, wie man wichtige Eventinformationen im Digitalisierungszeitalter am effizientesten zirkuliert. Die unbegrenzten digitalen Möglichkeiten der Kommunikation machen es möglich, diverse Empfänger*innen in den Prozess miteinzubeziehen. Um Sprache erfolgreich und effektiv im Eventbereich einzusetzen, ist es vor allem wichtig, den gesamten Prozess von Beginn an sprachlich durchzuplanen und Mehrdeutigkeiten zu vermeiden. Ein Beispiel der erfolgreichen Implementierung von Sprachstrategie ist die Submarke Dr. fem. Fatale der LUB GmbH, die sich speziell an eine weibliche Zielgruppe der Professionals im Job richtet und für diese regelmäßig Events anbietet. Die Nachzeichnungen der Beispiele zeigen, dass Sprache eine wesentliche Rolle in der Eventkommunikation spielt und neue Welten erschafft: Es sollte von Beginn an systematisch über die Planung, Ausgestaltung und Kontrolle aller sprachlichen Aktivitäten im Hinblick auf relevante Zielgruppen gesprochen werden.
... For example, turbulence can develop in dense crowds, causing pedestrian movements to become irregular and chaotic [2,3]. This in turn can lead to a domino effect [4,5], whereby a small disturbance starts a chain reaction spreading through the crowd. Dense crowds can also exhibit 'density waves' where the density periodically increases and decreases [6]. ...
Security plays a crucial role when it comes to planning large events such as concerts, sporting tournaments, pilgrims, or demonstrations. Monitoring and controlling pedestrian dynamics can prevent dangerous situations from occurring. However, little is known about the specific factors that contribute to harmful situations. For example, the individual response of a person to external forces in dense crowds is not well studied. In order to address this gap in knowledge, we conducted a series of experiments to examine how a push propagates through a row of people and how it affects the participants. We recorded 2D head trajectories and 3D motion capturing data. To ensure that different trials can be compared to one another, we measured the force at the impact. We find that that the propagation distance as well as the propagation speed of the push are mainly functions of the strength of the push and in particular the latter depends on the initial arm posture of the pushed participants. Our results can contribute to a deeper understanding of the microscopic causes of macroscopic phenomena in large groups, and can be applied to inform models of pedestrian dynamics or validate them, ultimately improving crowd safety.
... Previous empirical studies [1,26] have revealed that people are involuntarily moved when they are densely packed, and as a consequence, the interactions increases in areas of extreme densities, which leads to an instability of pedestrian flows. When the average density is increasing, sudden transitions from laminar to stop-and-go and turbulent flows are observed. ...
A recent study [D. Helbing, A. Johansson and H. Z. Al-Abideen, {\it Phys. Rev. E} 75, 046109 (2007)] has revealed a "turbulent" state of pedestrian flows, which is characterized by sudden displacements and causes the falling and trampling of people. However, turbulent crowd motion is not reproduced well by current many-particle models due to their insufficient representation of the local interactions in areas of extreme densities. In this contribution, we extend the repulsive force term of the social force model to reproduce crowd turbulence. We perform numerical simulations of pedestrians moving through a bottleneck area with this new model. The transitions from laminar to stop-and-go and turbulent flows are observed. The empirical features characterizing crowd turbulence, such as the structure function and the probability density function of velocity increments are reproduced well, i.e. they are well compatible with an analysis of video data during the annual Muslim pilgrimage.
... injuries and death). Many force effects are summarized and documented by Fruin [37]. ...
In recent years modelling crowd and evacuation dynamics has become very important, with increasing huge numbers of people gathering around the world for many reasons and events. The fact that our global population grows dramatically every year and the current public transport systems are able to transport large amounts of people, heightens the risk of crowd panic or crush. Pedestrian models are based on macroscopic or microscopic behaviour. In this paper, we are interested in developing models that can be used for evacuation control strategies. This model will be based on microscopic pedestrian simulation models, and its evolution and design requires a lot of information and data. The people stream will be simulated, based on mathematical models derived from empirical data about pedestrian flows. This model is developed from image data bases, so called empirical data, taken from a video camera or data obtained using human detectors. We consider the individuals as autonomous particles interacting through social and physical forces, which is one approach that has been used to simulate crowd behaviour.
... The same applies to crowd turbulence. It has not only occured in January 2006, but also in previous years, and the observation is consistent with what Fruin has reported[6]: "At occupancies of about 7 persons per square meter the crowd becomes almost a fluid mass. Shock waves can be propagated through the mass, sufficient to .. ...
The study of crowd dynamics is interesting because of the various self-organization phenomena resulting from the interactions of many pedestrians, which may improve or obstruct their flow. Besides formation of lanes of uniform walking direction and oscillations at bottlenecks at moderate densities, it was recently discovered that stop-and-go waves [D. Helbing et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 97, 168001 (2006)] and a phenomenon called "crowd turbulence" can occur at high pedestrian densities [D. Helbing et al., Phys. Rev. E 75, 046109 (2007)]. Although the behavior of pedestrian crowds under extreme conditions is decisive for the safety of crowds during the access to or egress from mass events as well as for situations of emergency evacuation, there is still a lack of empirical studies of extreme crowding. Therefore, this paper discusses how one may study high-density conditions based on suitable video data. This is illustrated at the example of pilgrim flows entering the previous Jamarat Bridge in Mina, 5 kilometers from the Holy Mosque in Makkah, Saudi-Arabia. Our results reveal previously unexpected pattern formation phenomena and show that the average individual speed does not go to zero even at local densities of 10 persons per square meter. Since the maximum density and flow are different from measurements in other countries, this has implications for the capacity assessment and dimensioning of facilities for mass events. When conditions become congested, the flow drops significantly, which can cause stop-and-go waves and a further increase of the density until critical crowd conditions are reached. Then, "crowd turbulence" sets in, which may trigger crowd disasters.
... In a study about the crowd management of outdoor music festivals, the type of performance, crowd demographics, and consumption of drugs and alcohol were identified as major factors influencing crowd behavior and safety [4]. Fruin [5] further adds to the crowd management literature that the force and pressure of the crowd, the information upon which the crowd reacts, space (form), and time (the duration of the crowding and event scheduling) can largely determine the outcome of a crowd disaster. ...
The demand for collective gatherings and recreational space has been rising as a response to the three-year itch of staying indoors and social distancing due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. Crowds are spilling out in the city and rejuvenating places, yet also causing dangerously overcrowded and uncontrolled situations. Planning is also challenged by the temporary use of space and the unpredictable nature of crowds during events, requiring a deep understanding of the crowd flow and flexibility in planning. How can places be prepared to accommodate the sudden influx of crowds safely? This chapter focuses on the case study of the tragic crowd crush in a once-festive alley celebrating Halloween in Itaewon, Seoul, the Republic of Korea, in 2022. What sort of planning methods could have prevented the crowd crush? Many past similar events worldwide reported a significant number of casualties and deaths, especially related to stampedes. This chapter analyzes the tragedy in retrospect in terms of form, programming, and the roles of stakeholders while reviewing and drawing lessons learned from relevant crowd-control measures elsewhere that could have been applied to avoid such an incident. Ultimately, this chapter offers insights and guidelines for planning for future crowd-raising occasions in limited spaces.
... occurred. 85 In the Ibrox Park soccer stadium incident, people on the bottom experienced estimated chest pressures of 800-900 lbs. 86 In 2021, Steinberg published an emotional antiproning editorial which did not reflect any of his own research as he had never done any research on prone restraint. ...
It is important to understand the arbitrary and hollow significance of the homicide ruling in arrest-related death. Abundant scientific literature refutes the notion that prone restraint or electronic muscle control contributes to such deaths.
... At event venues such as sports games, live music concerts, and festivals where numerous people visit, congestion in the vicinity or nearest station when people leave the venue has become a social problem. Crowding can not only induce discomfort among people but also lead to serious accidents [1][2][3][4]. In the past, there was a fatal accident caused by congestion on pedestrian bridges [5]. ...
Regulated egress, a method in which people are divided into several groups and each group is allowed to egress in turn, is used at large event venues to avoid congestion in the surrounding area. In this study, we developed an index that considers people’s egress time and congestion during the waiting period to evaluate regulated egress. Then, using simulation and theoretical analysis, we determined the appropriate number of groups to use when conducting regulated egress.
... Te pressure increases rapidly in the dense crowd, and the density level remains high. In other words, the crowd pressure characteristics, which have been observed in many crowd disasters [49][50][51], are correctly rendered. ...
The macroscopic models for solving the pedestrian flow problem can be generally classified into two categories as follows: first-order continuum models and high-order continuum models. In first-order continuum models, the density satisfies the mass conservation law, the speed is defined by a flow-density relationship, and the desired directional motion of pedestrians is determined by an Eikonal-type equation. In contrast, in high-order models, the velocity is governed by the momentum conservation law. In this study, we summarize existing first-order and high-order models and rewrite them in the form of unified scalar or system hyperbolic conservation laws. Next, we apply high-order discontinuous Galerkin methods with a positivity-preserving limiter on unstructured triangular meshes to solve the conservation law and a second-order fast-sweeping scheme to solve the Eikonal equations. Our method can efficiently model real-life complex computational regions and avoid nonphysical solutions and simulation blow-ups. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed solution algorithm. The numerical results validate the reliability of the proposed numerical method and highlight the advantages of triangular meshes.
... occurred. 44 In the Ibrox Park soccer stadium incident, people on the bottom experienced estimated chest pressures of 800-900 lbs. 45 It takes about 260 kg (572 lbs.) of brief chest weight to kill someone, but it takes about 180 kg or 400 lbs. ...
Despite overwhelming evidence of its safety and efficacy, prone restraint generates significant negativity in the mass media and among some politicians. The purpose of this paper is to review the scientific evidence and to hypothesize on the source of the anti-pron-ing paranoia.
... It is interesting to note that given the number of piles observed (1,086), even the direct mortalities from smothering were relatively low (38 smothering events). In humans, the risk of negative consequences of crowding are impacted by 4 factors, abbreviated as FIST (Fruin, 1993): Force, Information, Space (both in relationship to individual density and larger scale architectural features) and Time (duration). The cause of death in human crowding is most commonly asphyxiation with the risk increasing when density exceeds 10 people per m 2 (Lee and Hughes, 2005). ...
Piling, a dense cluster of hens, is a behavior of major concern to the cage-free egg industry. It can cause large numbers of mortalities at which point it is considered smothering. The aim of this study was to quantify whether piling can also have consequences on production and non-smothering mortalities, which have not previously been described. Additionally, we aimed to describe characteristics of piling behavior relevant to for management. Video footage from 12 flocks of laying hens was analyzed for piling behavior across 3 wks. Production and mortality data were accessed using an integrated online management system. Bayesian linear mixed-effect models were used for formal statistical testing of the relationships between piling and production. Accounting for some missing data, a total of 252 d amounting to approximately 15,624 h were analyzed for the presence or absence of piling behavior, which we believe constitutes the largest analysis of piling behavior in the scientific literature to date. All flocks observed exhibited piling behavior even if they had no history of smothering. On average, flocks piled more than 4 times per day for around 44 min per event and the peak piling time occurred between 1300 and 1359. We found that the number of piling events was associated with a reduction in the number of eggs produced the next day; based on the average of 4 piles per day this amounted to 7.35 fewer eggs per 1,000 birds per day. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found total piling duration per day was positively associated with fewer Grade B eggs, with a decrease of 0.74 Grade B eggs for every hour of piling per day. No relationship was observed between piling and mortality not attributed to smothering. We discuss possible causes and explanations for these results including birds' response to stress, crowd dynamics, and daily rhythms. Here we show the potential for piling behavior to have sublethal consequences on production even in the absence of smothering-related deaths.
... Henceforth, the group is accepted as unreasonable as LeBon deciphered. The accompanying segment focuses on the numerical mental model dependent on LeBon's hypothesis [4]. ...
Irrational crowds tend to adapt herd mentality, having group behaviour and high suggestion through interaction. It is important to see how an irrational crowd can be controlled to prevent undesirable crowd attitude or action. This paper audits existing models and the regulators to give a exhaustive examination for swarm control. It centres around an exhaustive investigation of the control of the mental group, demonstrated utilizing LeBon's hypothesis; which characterizes the group conduct as far as group demean or. The swarm disposition is characterized as far as suggestibility and eminence and the swarm connection is characterized as far as the cooperation of eminence and suggestibility, which is normally insecure. A regulator is needed to accomplish steadiness. Since, for regulator plan, the numerical condition is altered to incorporate model association with the goal to compel the onlookers' disposition to zero. In this paper, a few control approaches are depicted and the best control approach is featured. In the featured regulator, the control specialists impact the entire group through association. The outcomes close, the best control approach is by utilizing various control specialists since the control exertion is decreased and the balancing out time is improved.
... A crowd can be defined as a collection of individuals present in a common environment while usually sharing common goals with complex behavior influenced by several exogenous and endogenous variables (Selamat et al., 2020). Generally, crowds do not pose any serious issues; nevertheless, injury and fatalities have sometimes been caused by inadequate escape routes and poor crowd management (Fruin, 1993). Selamat et al. (2020) identify crowd behaviors and space design as the two major causes of crowd disasters or accidents during emergencies. ...
The integrated use of building information modeling (BIM) and geographic information system (GIS) is promising for the development of asset management systems (AMSs) for operation and maintenance (O&M) in smart university campuses. The combination of BIM-GIS with cognitive digital twins (CDTs) can further facilitate the management of complex systems such as university building stock. CDTs enable buildings to behave as autonomous entities, dynamically reacting to environmental changes. Timely decisions based on the actual conditions of buildings and surroundings can be provided, both in emergency scenarios or when optimized and adaptive performances are required. The research aims to develop a BIM-GIS-based AMS for improving user experience and enabling the optimal use of resources in the O&M phase of an Italian university. Campuses are complex assets, mainly diffused with buildings spread across the territory, managed with still document-based and fragmented databases handled by several subjects. This results in incomplete and asymmetrical information, often leading to ineffective and untimely decisions. The paper presents a methodology for the development of a BIM-GIS web-based platform (i.e., AMS-app) providing the real-time visualization of the asset in an interactive 3D map connected to analytical dashboards for management support. Two buildings of the University of Turin are adopted as demonstrators, illustrating the development of an easily accessible, centralized database by integrating spatial and functional data, useful also to develop future CDTs. As a first attempt to show the AMS app potential, crowd simulations have been conducted to understand the buildings’ actual level of safety in case of fire emergency and demonstrate how CDTs could improve it. The identification of data needed, also gathered through the future implementation of suitable sensors and Internet of Things networks, is the core issue together with the definition of effective asset visualization and monitoring methods. Future developments will explore the integration of artificial intelligence and immersive technologies to enable space use optimization and real-time wayfinding during evacuation, exploiting digital tools to alert and drive users or authorities for safety improvement. The ability to easily optimize the paths with respect to the actual occupancy and conditions of both the asset and surroundings will be enabled.
... As for consequence, in some cases, the huge crowd event had led to fatal accidents among the pilgrims. Fruin (1993) stated that crowd management is understood as a systematic planning for the arranged movement and assembly of members as people. Therefore, the improvement on pedestrian facilities provided is essential to ensure smooth flows of the pilgrim's event and comfort. ...
Makkah is the holy city of Muslims which is located in the southwest of Saudi Arabia. It is the being visited by pilgrims from all nationalities every year for the annual Islamic Pilgrimage (Hajj). Hajj is the fifth pillar of Islam which is the largest annual religious pilgrimage event in the world. The Hajj management authority specifies that the current pilgrimage’s performance is challenging due to the increase of pilgrims every year. Pedestrian conflicts and uncomfortable walking environment are the crucial issues that have been identified, which are due to insufficient pedestrian facilities. Hence, this paper presents the pedestrian facilities assessment between Arafat to Muzdalifah road. The objectives of the study are to determine the available pedestrian facilities for pilgrimage from Arafat to Muzdalifah, and to suggest the suitable solution for pedestrian facilities in every 5 minutes walks. Meanwhile, qualitative methods of site inventory and observation were applied to gather the related data on the selected study area. Possible pedestrian facilities design is suggested for the purpose of future Hajj improvement.
... Large-scale events with widely distributed parking and camping areas represent a particular challenge for event and crisis management and require extensive preparation and constant monitoring to guarantee the safety of participants. Injuries and deaths occur repeatedly at large gatherings of people and for years research has been conducted into the causes of accidents and ways of avoiding them in order to make large events safer (Fruin, 1993, Helbing et al., 2000. In order to prevent situations of danger or damage at large events and to be able to act quickly and effectively in an emergency, decision-makers need information with spatial reference for a situation picture that is as close to reality as possible during the event. ...
The management of large-scale events with a widely distributed camping area is a special challenge for organisers and security forces and requires both comprehensive preparation and attentive monitoring to ensure the safety of the participants. Crucial to this is the availability of up-to-date situational information, e.g. from remote sensing data. In particular, information on the number and distribution of people is important in the event of a crisis in order to be able to react quickly and effectively manage the corresponding rescue and supply logistics. One way to estimate the number of persons especially at night is to classify the type and size of objects such as tents and vehicles on site and to distinguish between objects with and without a sleeping function. In order to make this information available in a timely manner, an automated situation assessment is required. In this work, we have prepared the first high-quality dataset in order to address the aforementioned challenge which contains aerial images over a large-scale festival of different dates. We investigate the feasibility of this task using Convolutional Neural Networks for instance-wise semantic segmentation and carry out several experiments using the Mask-RCNN algorithm and evaluate the results. Results are promising and indicate the possibility of function-based tent classification as a proof-of-concept. The results and thereof discussions can pave the way for future developments and investigations.
... Large-scale events with widely distributed parking and camping areas represent a particular challenge for event and crisis management and require extensive preparation and constant monitoring to guarantee the safety of participants. Injuries and deaths occur repeatedly at large gatherings of people and for years research has been conducted into the causes of accidents and ways of avoiding them in order to make large events safer (Fruin, 1993, Helbing et al., 2000. In order to prevent situations of danger or damage at large events and to be able to act quickly and effectively in an emergency, decision-makers need information with spatial reference for a situation picture that is as close to reality as possible during the event. ...
The management of large-scale events with a widely distributed camping area is a special challenge for organisers and security forces and requires both comprehensive preparation and attentive monitoring to ensure the safety of the participants. Crucial to this is the availability of up-to-date situational information, e.g. from remote sensing data. In particular, information on the number and distribution of people is important in the event of a crisis in order to be able to react quickly and effectively manage the corresponding rescue and supply logistics. One way to estimate the number of persons especially at night is to classify the type and size of objects such as tents and vehicles on site and to distinguish between objects with and without a sleeping function. In order to make this information available in a timely manner, an automated situation assessment is required. In this work, we have prepared the first high-quality dataset in order to address the aforementioned challenge which contains aerial images over a large-scale festival of different dates. We investigate the feasibility of this task using Convolutional Neural Networks for instance-wise semantic segmentation and carry out several experiments using the Mask-RCNN algorithm and evaluate the results. Results are promising and indicate the possibility of function-based tent classification as a proof-of-concept. The results and thereof discussions can pave the way for future developments and investigations.
Currently, the demand of surveillance system is rapidly increasing for the real time security
system applications and this type of surveillance systems are majorly used at crowded areas
such as commercial complexes, sport stadiums and shopping malls etc. In crowd behavior
analysis difficulty occurs during motion analysis that can be obtained with the support of
object tracking and trajectories. To provide robust object tracking system under a
complicated scenario, the system model should able to track object of interest and apart from
environmental conditions, the object itself should have undergone changes. For that, it
requires kinematics adaptation technique of tracking model, which will provide tracking of
objects. Several methodologies have been proposed for the analysis of crowd behavior, which
has limitations for heavily crowded scenarios and when a new object enters a frame etc. In
this study, an approach to detect the crowd abnormality behavior in a dense scenario, where
the behavior of crowd scenario may be Normal ‘or’ Abnormal is proposed.
Our proposed model is based upon the optical flow approach which has a capabality to
examine the unexpected alteration in motion at any type of crowd. Initially, the major motion
area is extracted through the motion heat map and the Harris corner detector is used to extract
the information of ‘point-of-interest’ under extracted motion area. The optical flow is
analyzed in order to fix the threshold value, where the optical flow provides the energy level
of each frame. In addition, SVM classifier is used to classify normal and abnormal frames,
which is very useful in video surveillance model. Though in real-time processing, the
classifier should be more accurate and the latency should be less for detection, and hence the
techniques such as SVM, deep learning techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks are
time consuming so it is required to look for other faster and accurate approaches. Further
work is carried out, where the video sequences are split into frames.
An optical flow method along with k-nearest centroid neighbours (K-NCN) classification
approach is proposed to recognize and track abnormality in a video frame. Optical flow is an
efficient global motion information algorithm. The optical flow vector provides direction and
displacement of a point between two consecutive frames. This feature vector acts as input for
the classification stage. A surrounding neighbour concept is used for finding k-NCN for each
frame, where, the class level is assigned based on the votes of k-NCN. The simulation results
are promising and seem very efficient in terms of accuracy. The simulation results are
iii
analyzed and a frame level comparison with the ground truth is performed. ROC analysis
provides area under curve (AUC) for different data sequences and is compared with other
existing techniques. The proposed model KNCN-KADA obtained a promising accuracy of
99%. In addition, cumulative results for real-time data, where the video is taken from class
room scenario and the complete analysis is done using the optical flow, motion segmentation
and streak-line flow is represented.
Fires that occur in assembly buildings cause great loss of life and property. Children’s cultural centers included in assembly buildings should also be evaluated within this context. Children create an occupant profile in cultural centers, and the internal environment has an excessive fire load, which poses a great risk of fires. In fire evacuation scenarios for children’s cultural centers, it is necessary to create appropriate evacuation conditions. In this work, fire safety was analyzed over total evacuation time within occupant-based fire evacuation simulations of a children’s cultural center located in Istanbul. The effect of the children’s theatre hall located on the top floor on a building’s total evacuation time has been studied. The effectiveness of alternative fire escape routes on evacuation time through different evacuation scenarios has been analyzed, and safe evacuation strategies for children’s cultural centers have been revealed. As a result of this study, recommendations were presented within performance-based fire evacuation strategies in the design of children’s cultural centers. As the future of the countries, fire safety design criteria have been created in children’s cultural centers for children to be able to be safe in educational, cultural, and artistic environments.
Empirical studies of large gatherings and natural disasters have revealed two important features of dense crowds: extremely high crowd pressure and crowd turbulence. In this study, a mixed-type continuum model for multidirectional pedestrian flow was developed that explicitly considered the phase transition of different anticipation characteristics under different densities. Non-hyperbolicity was used to model the strong instabilities during crowd turbulence. In addition, by estimating the aggregated crowd pressure, the proposed model could clarify the effects of both force chains and panic sentiment, phenomena commonly observed during crowd disasters. The non-hyperbolic partial differential equations were solved using the mixed-type finite difference method, and Eikonal equations were solved using the fast sweeping method. Subsequently, the continuum model was applied to simulations of two real-world scenarios-the 2015 Hajj crowd disaster and the 2010 Love Parade crowd disaster-and validated through comparison with empirical observations. Overall, the proposed model is an efficient tool for evaluating crowd management strategies to predict and assess the crowd state. ARTICLE HISTORY
The chapter links theory and practice of public order management. Based on systematic observations of mass events where violence occurred (or was feared), an evidence-based model for the initiation and escalation of collective violence is presented. Based on this model, strategic principles for the police management of mass events are described, which are already successfully applied in several countries.
The aim of this resource guide is to share a compilation of references, industry best practices and evidence-based research to support security practitioners and event planners/organizers to: (1) plan and deliver safe and secure events, and (2) support ongoing academic research and contributions to the body of knowledge on enterprise security risk management and protective security/ counter terrorism arrangements for events, venues, and publicly accessible locations.
This guide is by no means meant to be a definitive list, but rather a point of departure to support professional development (for those who aren’t discouraged by academic style papers) and encourage research into our domain. The references in most part can be accessed via by embedded links provided in the guide or through https://scholar.google.com/; https://www.researchgate.net/ or https://www.jstor.org/ .
This text looks at events from a very different perspective – that of how and why events fail and what can be learnt from this in both a practical and academic perspective.
Overcrowding and stampedes may occur in public places with the gathering of crowds. To mitigate and prevent risk, the accident mechanism and methods for monitoring and evaluating crowd-gathering risk were investigated. Related studies are reviewed and summarized in this paper. The evolution process of crowd-gathering risk and precipitating factors were explained systematically. Risk monitoring methods are classified into three types according to the key technologies adopted. Articles exploring risk evaluation methods for crowd gathering are outlined, and the three main paradigms were formed. Finally, the shortcomings and future research points are summarized to promote more in-depth and comprehensive studies on crowd-gathering risk, develop monitoring technologies, and build an integrated system of risk management.
With the increase of large-scale mass activities, stampedes of deaths and injuries easily occur. The bidirectional qualities between the state's shifting combinations of different risk factors and accidents must be more thoroughly analyzed. The triangular fuzzy number and the Bayesian network are applied in the study to construct a risk analysis model for stadium stampede accidents. 46 accident samples and 24 risk factors closely related to activities were collected for the study. The results show that 7 factors, including audience mood, vulnerable groups, retrograde crowd, abnormal person, flammable and explosive material, walkway in stadium, and special time period, are more likely to cause stampede incidents. When the factors related to the live audience are added together in the most dangerous state, the probability value of the activity safe state decreases from 86% to 31%. In particular, the mood state of the audience, ranging from the more excited to crazy, is most sensitive to stampede. In addition, four major causal chains are obtained. The two risk factors, crowd flow limitation measures and safe entrance and exit, contributed most significantly to the stampede when the personnel volume ratio began to exceed 80% or when the security entrances and exits were partially closed. The model constructed in this paper can dynamically demonstrate the rules between the transition combinations of different states of risk factors and stampede. It will provide some theoretical basis for the process safety management of large-scale mass activities in stadiums.
Das Kapitel verknüpft Theorie und Praxis des Public Order Management. Basierend auf systematischen Beobachtungen von Massenveranstaltungen, bei denen Gewalt auftrat (oder befürchtet wurde), wird ein evidenzbasiertes Modell für die Initiierung und Eskalation von kollektiver Gewalt vorgestellt. Auf der Grundlage dieses Modells werden strategische Prinzipien für die polizeiliche Bewältigung von Massenveranstaltungen beschrieben, die in einer Reihe von Ländern bereits erfolgreich angewendet werden.
As China's population ages and the notion of contemporary people evolves, an increasing number of elderly people opt to spend their final years in a nursing home. Recently, there have been more fires in nursing facilities for the elderly. As a result, using computer simulation technology, this paper creates an evacuation micro-simulation model for the elderly and nursing staff, investigates the impact of psychological characteristics and evacuation behaviour of the elderly and nursing staff on fire escape during the fire evacuation process, and designs fire evacuation for nursing homes. Based on the nursing home's regular evacuation paradigm, the study examines the behavioural elements. To simulate the three models and the influence of various behavioural and psychological features on fire evacuation, the authors utilised the MATLAB software, which is based on Agent theory and cellular automata. The simulation results show that the three models proposed in this study are capable of accurately describing reality.
The literature of pedestrian, crowd and evacuation dynamics is captured in its approximate full scope and is analysed at various levels using scientometric indicators of its underlying articles (N≈6,200). The analyses provide new insight into the structural make-up of this field, its distribution across various disciplines, its temporal and historical patterns of development, as well as its pioneering and influential entities (i.e., articles and authors). The analysis establishes that the field has exerted a high degree of influence beyond its borders while identifying these areas of influence. Studies with greatest impact within and beyond the borders of crowd dynamics literature; as well as, pioneering but neglected studies of the field are identified. It is determined that the beginning of the twenty-first century marks the most important milestone of this field, an intellectual turning point that set the field to become a standalone research domain. Temporal analysis indicates certain paradigm shifts in crowed dynamics research during the past decade. It identifies two streams of activities labelled “empirical methods” and “crowd counting/visual crowd analysis” as the two youngest and currently hottest research streams of this field. Outcomes suggest that further interactions and collaborations between the computer vision and the mainstream of crowd researchers could be warranted. This could lead to the next generations of data-driven crowd models and prevent the field from going to a state of stagnation. It is also hoped that these outcomes contribute to enhancing the quality (i.e., specificity and inclusiveness) of document referencing in crowd dynamics papers.
This paper proposes a second-order pedestrian model that comprises two types of equations: continuity equation and a set of transport equations. To complete the model, we develop Eikonal equations to explicitly consider the effects of the collective decisions of individuals and crowd pressure on pedestrian dynamics. Then, the crowd movement is simulated using a set of partial differential equations under appropriate initial and boundary conditions. Based on the stability requirements derived by performing a standard linear stability analysis, suitable parameters are selected to test the model in a numerical example. The proposed second-order system is then solved using the characteristic-wise third-order weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO3) scheme, and the Eikonal equations are solved using the fast sweeping method. The numerical results indicate the effectiveness of the model because the derived local flow-density relationship produces a second peak in the high-density region, which is consistent with previous empirical studies. Besides, the applicability of the model to an unstable condition is verified through the simulation of complex phenomena such as stop-and-go waves. Furthermore, the estimate of crowd pressure in the simulation results can be used as a risk-level indicator for crowd management and control.
Purpose
Studies on human behaviour during a seismic emergency in tall buildings are scant. During such emergencies, occupants need to reach a safe place. The purpose of this paper is to address some of the emotional and behavioural responses of the occupants of three multi-storey buildings during the 19 September earthquake that hit Mexico City in 2017.
Design/methodology/approach
A cross-sectional and non-probability study was conducted using a questionnaire-based survey; the sample size was n = 352, and the study was conducted from 4 October to 20 November 2017.
Findings
(1) In the 11 storey-building, women, age (18–49 years old [yo]) and participants with higher education exhibited flight behaviour, and those of the six storey-building within the age category 18–49 yo also exhibited a similar behaviour; (2) Women and age (18–49 yo) in the six and 11-storey buildings were significantly associated with fear of the earthquake; (3) Women were significantly more fearful and felt more intense the tremors than men in the 11-storey building; (4) Women were significantly more fearful of the 11-storey building collapsing; (5) The taller the building, the more fearful were the occupants of the building collapsing.
Research limitations/implications
First, the sample considered in the study was no probability; consequently, the results should not be generalised to the existing high-rising buildings in Mexico City. Second, some of the variables considered herein were of the Likert-type scale but have been assumed as continuous; in fact, some future work could be the design of a valid and reliable questionnaire to address human behaviour during earthquakes in tall buildings.
Practical implications
The presented results may be the great value to key decision-makers on how to address the lack of earthquake preparedness during a seismic emergency. Further, the results have shed light on the negative emotions (fear) experienced by the occupants of tall buildings.
Social implications
Gaining a better understanding of human behavioural in tall buildings is essential in devising measures to mitigate the impact of earthquake disasters.
Originality/value
Research on human behaviour during a seismic emergency in high-rise buildings is scant. To gain a better understanding of human emotional and behavioural response to earthquakes in tall buildings, it becomes necessary to conduct research such as the present case study. This may help decision-makers to devise measures so that the impact of earthquake disasters may be limited.
Computer simulation of dense crowds is finding increased use in event planning, congestion prediction, and threat assessment. State-of-the-art particle-based crowd methods assume and aim for collision-free trajectories. That is an idealistic yet not overly realistic expectation, as near-collisions increase in dense and rushed settings compared with typically sparse pedestrian scenarios. Centroidal particle dynamics (CPD) is a method we defined that explicitly models the compressible personal space area surrounding each entity to inform its local pathing and collision-avoidance decisions. We illustrate how our proposed agent-based method for local dynamics can reproduce several key emergent dense crowd phenomena at the microscopic level with higher congruence to real trajectory data and with more visually convincing collision-avoidance paths than the existing state of the art. We present advanced models in which we consider distraction of the pedestrians in the crowd, flocking behavior, interaction with vehicles (ambulances, police) and other advanced models that show that emergent behavior in the simulated crowds is similar to the behavior observed in reality. We discuss how to increase confidence in CPD, potentially making it also suitable for use in safety-critical applications, including urban design, evacuation analysis, and crowd-safety planning.
rowd Disasters - A Systems Evaluation of C auses and C ountermeasures. Inc. in U.S. National Bureau of Standards, pub. NBSIR 81-3261
- J Fruin
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Investigation of Guardrails for the Protection of Employees From Occupational Hazards
- S G Fattal
- L E Attaneo
Fattal, S.G., C attaneo, L.E. Investigation of Guardrails for the Protection of Employees From Occupational Hazards. Nat. Bur. Stds. NBSIR 76-1139, J uly 1976, 114 pp.
C rowd Management- Report of the Task Force on C rowd C ontrol and Safety. C ity of C incinnati
- P Wertheimer
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Parting With Illusions
- Pozner
- Vladimir
Pozner, Vladimir. - Parting With Illusions. Atlantic Monthly Press, 1990, 324pp.