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Russia-EU External Security Relations: Russian Policy and Perceptions
Abstract
This report looks at Russian policy and perceptions of the relations with the EU in the field of external security. Whereand by whom are decisions on these relations taken in Russia? Which are the Russian security policy interests in relations to the EU? How does Russia view the European Security and Defence Policy and the EU engagement in the European neighbourhood? The report also analyses how Russia views the prospects for cooperation within the Common Space for External Security.
Moscow’s professed interest in regional security is first and foremost an effort to leverage its geographical position and attributes of great power standing, membership in the Security Council, vast energy reserves, nuclear weapons, geographical expanse, etc. for purposes of global standing. Ultimately Russian policy remains rhetorical rather than an actual policy capable of being carried out through practical action. The central argument presented in this chapter is that despite Russia’s obsession with and craving for recognition of the status of a recognized great power in Asia, it still falls short. Western policy omits Russia as a factor in Asian security, while Washington in particular steadily refuses to view Russia as an Asian great power.
China and Russia share a geopolitical world view and a preference for a multipolar world. How their relationship evolves and how they understand their respective positions in the international system are vital for the development of global affairs. The purpose of this report is to analyse the relationship between China and Russia from a political as well as an economic perspective. In this context it compares how the two countries perceive themselves and their role in the world. The report provides an overview of the national foreign policy elements and the economic ties between the two countries. China and Russia cooperate and compete in many areas and their interests and ambitions are exemplified by their policies in Central Asia and Asia-Pacific. Throughout the report the role of the United States as a competitor and a partner to both countries is discussed.
The partnership with China offers Russia an opportunity to conduct a multi-vector foreign policy and thereby to counterbalance the hegemony of the West. For China it supports the efforts to offset the US influence in the Asia-Pacific. Economic interdependence between the countries is limited, but arms trade and technology transfer are vital elements and energy cooperation is developing. China’s gradual economic reforms have created an economic superpower that will soon be overtaking the United States as the largest economy in the world, while Russia’s economy is stagnating. A weakness in the relationship is the fact that relations with the United States are the most important for both China’s and Russia’s foreign policy. The United States is China’s only real strategic partner, which adds to the weakness of the partnership with Russia. The Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014 is found to be a defining moment for the Sino-Russian relationship.
Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1250 personnel of whom about 900 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden's largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fields such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. The SCO cannot be regarded as a military alliance posing a threat for example to NATO as it does not oblige the mem-bers to collective defence and does not dispose of military forces. The organisation is still quite new and has limited economic resources at its disposal. There is a risk of bureaucratisation. However, the organisation has shown flexibility and adaptiveness by its rapid growth, the creation of new institu-tions and a broadening agenda. It serves as a useful forum, where the states can promote cooperation, also bilateral, and discuss differences. It has helped to preclude conflicts among the members and to cooperate against trans-na-tional terrorism and related problems as well as against Western-type democracy. The organisation serves different purposes for its members. Russia and China have tried to use it as a means to keep external powers out of Central Asia. For Russia it is also a forum for checking Chinese cooperation with the Cen-tral Asian states, while maintaining its own predominance in other ways. For China, the most interested party, the SCO legitimizes ties with the Central Asian states not existing before and through which it can project its growing economic power. For the Central Asian members the SCO helps to underpin their independence by giving them an equal voice with Russia and China as well as vetoing powers, while not preventing ties with the West. The SCO members seem unwilling to extend membership to the observers India, Pakistan and Iran, because that might involve them in external conflicts, disturb the power balance in the organisation as well as their relations with Western powers. Ingmar Oldberg is Deputy Research Director at the Division for Defence Analysis of FOI, specialising in Russian and East European foreign policy.
FOI is an assignment-based authority under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies for the use of defence and security. The organization employs around 1350 people of whom around 950 are researchers. This makes FOI the largest research institute in Sweden. FOI provides its customers with leading expertise in a large number of fields such as security-policy studies and analyses in defence and security, assessment of different types of threats, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT-security and the potential of new sensors. In June 2006, FOI published the report: Sweden and the NEGP: a Pilot Study of the North European Gas Pipeline and Sweden's Dependence on Russian Energy, a base data report on a topic that FOI considered to be of rising importance, namely the suggested gas pipeline from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. Much has happened since then and the NEGP has changed its name to Nord Stream and submitted an official notification on the intention of constructing the pipeline.
This article examines Russia’s vision of the European Union’s energy diversification projects that focus on their ‘shared neighbourhood’. It argues that although the European Union (EU), unlike the USA, is not yet seen as a serious threat to Russian interests in the area, this situation is rapidly changing, with the Kremlin becoming increasingly sensitive about the EU’s plans to diversify energy supply sources and transportation routes by increasing cooperation with other former Soviet Republics within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The article highlights how the EU’s energy diversification projects are viewed by Moscow as anti-Russian and details the way in which Russia is responding to this perceived threat, including plans to diversify its own energy exports.
The first major assessment of the role of the presidency in Russia's difficult transition from communist rule. Huskey analyzes the establishment and functioning of the Russian presidency as an institution and in relation to the other leading institutions of state: the government, parliament, courts, and regional authorities. Although this is not a biography of the first president, Boris Yeltsin, his allies and his rivals loom large in the study of a critical phase in the creation of a new Russian political system.
The study of foreign policy decision-making seeks to understand how states formulate and enact foreign policy. It views foreign policy as a series of decisions made by particular actors using specific decision-making processes. The origins of this focus on decision-making are generally traced to the 1950s and 1960s, with the literature increasing in complexity and diversity of approaches in more recent decades. Foreign policy decision-making is situated within foreign policy analysis (a subfield of international relations subfield), which applies theories and methods from an array of disciplines—political science, public administration, economics, psychology, sociology—to understand how states make foreign policy, and how these policies translate into geopolitical outcomes. The literature on foreign policy decision-making is often subdivided based on assumptions about the process by which actors make foreign policy decisions—primarily falling into rational and nonrational decision-making; about who is assumed to make the decision—states, individuals, groups, or organizations; and about the influences believed to be most important in affecting those decisions—international factors, domestic political factors, interpersonal dynamics, etc. While much of the literature focuses on foreign policy decision-making in the United States, there have been attempts to apply models developed in the US context to other states, as well as to generate generalizable theories about foreign policy decision-making that apply to certain types of states.
Foreign Policy Decision-Making, edited by Richard Snyder, H. W. Bruck, and Burton Sapin 40 years ago, is one of the foundational works of the subfield of Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) in the field of International Relations (IR). As is the case with any revolutionary vision, it has taken a great deal of time—in this case, over four decades—for those who followed the initial vision to find that their work is making its way toward the heart of current debates in the larger field of which they are a part. Today, the questions are asked in a slightly different dialect than that used by Snyder, Bruck, and Sapin (hereafter “SBS”), but most of the questions are the very same ones that stirred SBS so many years ago. Familiarity with current debates makes any close reading of Foreign Policy Decision-Making an interesting experience, given the uncanny prescience of their concerns about issues such as:
the agent-structure problematique
capturing cultural effects in international affairs
the relationship between rational choice and decision-making models
the problem of dynamism and change in IR theory
the “two-level game”; interrelating domestic and foreign influences on nation-state action
the need for integration in theory-building
broader methodological issues concerning choice of unit of analysis, preferred modes of satisfactory explanation, and appropriate data collection.
This book examines reform of the Russian military since the end of the Cold War. It explores the legacy of the Soviet era, explaining why - at the time of the fall of the Soviet Union - radical reform was long overdue in the wake of changing military technology, new economic and political realities, and the emergence of new threats and challenges. It discusses the problems encountered by Gorbachev in his attempts to promote military reform in the late 1980s, and goes on to analyse in detail the mixed fortunes of the policies of his successors, Yeltsin and Putin. It describes how the onset of war in Chechnya in 1994 provided clear evidence of the weaknesses of the Russian military in modern conflicts, and shows that although the Chechnya debacle did provide some impetus for reforms in the armed forces in 1997-98, the momentum was not continued under the Putin government. It argues that Putin's policies of bolstering central control over all aspects of decision making has left untouched many key problems facing the Russian military, including infighting between different force structures, lack of transparency and independent scrutiny over defence spending, and absence of consensus on the main threats to Russia and optimum force posture. Moreover, it argues that in his attempts to concentrate all means of control to a corrupt and inefficient Kremlin bureaucracy, Putin has deprived himself of all alternative channels of independent scrutiny, control and oversight, thus exacerbating the problems that continue to plague the Russian military.
Policy-making ‒ image and realityThe economic agenda ‒ Westernization with qualificationsA new conception of security?The repackaging of identityStrategic opportunismTowards a sustainable foreign policy
This article analyses Russian endorsement of the CFSP and the ESDP. Employing two competing paradigms, it presents two very different sets of arguments to explain this policy. First, relying on neorealist assumptions, it argues that Russian support for the CFSP and the ESDP has to be viewed in a context of Russia's relative decline: working to restore its former position of influence in the international system, Moscow is encouraging the EU to continue development of the CFSP and the ESDP in the hope that these will eventually help undermine the so-called `unipolar trend' led by NATO and the USA. Second, using constructivist insights, the article argues that post-Soviet Russia has undergone a fundamental transformation, which has given it a more `Western' or `European' identity. This has led Moscow to draw still closer to the EU - the organization widely regarded in Russia as the epitome of `Europe' - and to welcome the continued development of the CFSP and the ESDP. The rationale behind this policy, then, is not to cause a weakening of the USA, but to build on the inclusive nature of the EU to help protect the norms now shared between `us' and the former `them'.
European Union enlargement has left Russia on the margins of European political processes and led to widespread suspicion in the Moscow foreign policy establishment of European motives. This has resulted in, first, increasing resistance to the imposition of European norms and, second, a more assertive policy, particularly in the EU's and Russia's ‘overlapping neighbourhoods’. Although Moscow is likely to continue the strategy of engagement initiated under Putin, Brussels must radically rethink the nature and extent of Russia's ‘Europeanisation’. Russia's drive for modernisation will coexist with the strengthening of sovereignty and the power of the state, seen by the Putin administration as key to external and internal security. The EU will have to limit its ambition and work within this ‘window’—wider or narrower depending on state of play—of policy possibilities.
The Russian Security Council was created in an effort to achieve a greater degree of coordination in Russian security policy. Ever since, the Security Council has been accused of having become ‘a new Politburo’ or worse. However, Yeltsin's Security Council far from justified these misgivings. Only with the ascent to power of Putin did the Security Council achieve deciding influence. Only then were the conditions favourable for the Security Council to become the focus of Russian security policy coordination and formulation. It had developed a powerful administrative structure, there were no serious competing security policy institutions, it was not the object of scapegoating and, most importantly, its secretary enjoyed the confidence of the president.
The progression from a European Security and Defence Initiative to a European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) has not left Russian policy–makers indifferent. The Yeltsin administration greeted the emergence of the European Union as a new player in European security, seeing it as a potential challenge to NATO and American influence. President Putin’s emphasis on developing trust and cooperation with the West has changed the Russian perspective on the ESDP. Russian interest in dialogue and functional cooperation with the ESDP now stems primarily from a wish to add substance to the still nascent EU–Russia partnership, which Putin has chosen as Russia’s foremost external priority. In view of the imbalance between EU and Russian economic capacities, the security sphere appears as the most promising area of cooperation on which to found a meaningful long–term partnership. This article traces the evolution of Russian perceptions of the ESDP since it was first launched in June 1999 and outlines the development of EU–Russia relations in this field, which has given Russia the most advanced mechanism for interaction with the ESDP available to a non–EU country. It explores prospective areas of cooperation, as they are viewed by each side, and looks into issues of potential discord. Finally, the article considers the future of Russia–ESDP cooperation in the light of Russia’s revitalized partnership with NATO.
[From the Introduction]. On the 10th of May the EU and Russia signed four ‘roadmap’ documents at summit level in
Moscow, on the Common Economic Space, the Common Space of Freedom, Security and Justice, the Common Space of External Security and the Common Space on Research, Education and Culture. This was the culmination of two year’s work since the May 2003 summit that decided in principle to create the four spaces as a long-term project. It was intended also to give new momentum to the relationship, after seeing that the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1994 had not become a motor for anything very substantial, while the subsequent phase (in 1999) of swapping common strategy
documents also led nowhere in particular.
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Interviews at the Russian MFA and the MoD, 11-12 October 2006. This perception was further
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100 Interview at the Russian MFA, 12 October 2006.
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