Anatomy of a long boom provoking a dynamic economy in the 21st century

Abstract

The world stands on the threshold of a tantalizing opportunity: the possibility of a sustained economic boom over the first decades of the next millennium. This article outlines the confluence of forces – particularly the transition to a knowledge society, the emergence of a global economy and the pursuit of environmental sustainability – which could come together to propel huge improvements in wealth-creating capacity and wellbeing world-wide. The transition to a knowledge economy and society over the next few decades opens up the possibility of massive productivity gains. Equally significant, stimulus for a long boom could emerge from the creation of much more deeply integrated global markets for goods, services, capital and technology. Finally, the long boom could be sustained by a cooperative push to redirect the path of humanity’s relationship to the environment – a change entailing massive investments in new, less resource-intensive patterns of consumption and methods of production. The unleashing of these dynamic forces hinges on two basic policy thrusts. First, economic dynamism in general and a long boom in particular will demand exceptional efforts – nationally and internationally – to encourage continuous innovation and high levels of investment. Second, with the prospects for a long boom contingent on the realization of a leap in the levels of international cooperation, decision makers will have to consider bold new approaches to negotiating and reconciling conflicting interests and divergent needs.

Full text

A
s the 2 0th c entur y dr a ws to a close,
p o w e r f u l f o r c e s o f c h a n g e a r e
converging that could set the st age for
a long, sustained econo
m
ic boo
m
in the next
few dec ades – the tr ansition to a knowledge-
b a s e d s o c i e t y w i t h i t s p o t e n t i a l l y h u g e
pr o du c tivi ty g a ins ; the e
m
er genc e of
m
ore
deeply integr ated, global
m
arkets for goods,
services, c apit al and technology; and a fast-
growing environ
m
ent al aw areness that could
g r e a t l y a c c e l er a t e t h e s h i f t t o n e w , l e s s
resource- intensive production and consu
m
ption
patterns. The result could be sever al dec ades of
above- aver age econo
m
ic growth, subst anti al
increases in inco
m
e and wealth, and signific ant
i
m
prove
m
ents in well- being across the world.
But what wil l it take to unleash t hese dyna
m
ic
forces? N ot only will it will c all for a r ange of
initiatives to establish the rules and fra
m
eworks
for guiding the transition to a sustainable global
knowledge econo
m
y. Above all, it will require
exceptional efforts a
m
ong decision
m
akers in
govern
m
ent, business and society at l arge to
encourage continuous innovation, creat ivity and
h igh levels of inves t
m
ent, and to pro
m
ote bold
ne w a ppro ach es to closer int ern ation al c o-
oper ation and institution building. Inevit a bly
so
m
e countries will benefit
m
ore than others, but
a l on g b o o
m
w i t h a l l i ts w e a l t h c r e a t i n g
c ap acity would offer a unique opportu nity to
reverse the trends of the las t decades towards
deepening inequality and exclusion.
This book reviews the forces driving econo
m
ic
and social change in today’s world. It asesses
the likelihood of a long boo
m
m
ateri alising in
th e f i r s t de c a d es o f th e 2 1 s t c en t ur y a n d
explor es th e str at e g i c poli c i es ess enti al f or
m
aking it happen.
Further reading
2 1st C entury Technologies: Pro
m
ises and Perils
of a Dyna
m
ic Future.
(03 1999 02 1 P) FF 140
ISBN 92-64-17029-4
9:HSTCQE=V\UW^W:
The
F
UTURE
of
t
he Global
E
c
onomy
Towards
a Long Boom?
OECD
The Future of the Global E
c
onomy: Tow ards a
L
ong Boo
m
?
BANK
GESELLSCHAFT
BERLIN
W
est
LB
NORD/ LB
NO RD DEUT SC HE L ANDES BANK
GI ROZE NT RALE
OECD
99
ORG AN ISATION FOR ECONOMI C CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOP MENT

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T
HE F
U
T
U
R
E
OF
T
HE G
L
O
B
A
L
E
C
ONO
M
Y
:
T
o
w
ar
d
s
a
L
o
n
g
B
oo
m
?
O
R
G
A
N
I
S
A
T
I
ON FO
R
E
C
ONO
M
I
C
C
O-OPE
R
A
T
I
ON
A
ND DE
V
E
L
OP
M
EN
T

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and
which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed:
– to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising
standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and
thus to contribute to the development of the world economy;
– to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member
countries in the process of economic development; and
– to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory
basis in accordance with international obligations.
The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark,
France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway,
Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indi-
cated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June
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(12th December 1996). The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the
work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention).
Publié en français sous le titre :
L’ÉCONOMIE MONDIALE DE DEMAIN:
Vers un essor durable?
© OECD 1999
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3
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no
t
l
on
g-r
un
e
c
ono
m
ic
d
y
n
a
m
i
s
m
w
ill c
on
t
i
nu
e
i
n
t
h
e
f
u
t
u
r
e
.
T
h
e
s
e
c
on
d
a
dd
r
e
ss
e
d
s
p
e
ci
f
ic
d
rivi
n
g
f
o
rc
e
s
lik
e
ly
t
o
a
cc
o
m
p
a
n
y
e
c
ono
m
ic
d
y
n
a
m
i
s
m
i
n
t
h
e
n
e
x
t
c
e
n
t
u
ry
a
n
d
p
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
lly
s
p
a
rk
t
h
e
h
ig
h
gr
o
w
t
h
r
a
t
e
s
o
f
a
l
on
g
b
oo
m
o
v
e
r
t
h
e
n
e
x
t
t
w
e
n
t
y
t
o
t
h
ir
t
y y
e
a
r
s
. Fi
n
a
lly,
t
h
e
t
h
ir
d
s
e
ss
i
on
c
on
s
i
d
e
r
e
d
t
h
e
w
a
y
p
o
licy c
ho
ic
e
s
a
r
e
lik
e
ly
t
o
i
n
f
l
u
e
n
c
e
t
h
e
p
l
a
yi
n
g
ou
t
o
f
d
i
ffe
r
e
n
t
s
c
e
n
a
ri
o
s
f
o
r
a
21
s
t
c
e
n
t
u
ry l
on
g
b
oo
m
.
T
h
i
s
p
u
b
lic
a
t
i
on
b
ri
n
g
s
t
o
g
e
t
h
e
r
t
h
e
p
a
p
e
r
s
p
r
e
s
e
n
t
e
d
a
t
t
h
e
m
ee
t
i
n
g
a
s
w
e
ll
a
s
a
n
i
n
t
r
o
d
u
c
t
o
ry c
on
t
ri
b
u
t
i
on
a
n
d
s
u
mm
a
ry
o
f
t
h
e
m
a
i
n
p
o
i
n
t
s
o
f
t
h
e
d
i
s
c
u
ss
i
on
s
p
r
e
p
a
r
e
d
b
y
t
h
e
S
e
cr
e
t
a
ri
a
t
.
T
h
e
b
oo
k i
s
p
u
b
li
s
h
e
d
on
t
h
e
r
e
s
p
on
s
i
b
ili
t
y
o
f
t
h
e
S
e
cr
e
t
a
ry-G
e
n
e
r
a
l
o
f
t
h
e
OE
C
D.

5
T
able of
C
onte nts
C
ha
p
t
e
r 1
:
A
natom
y
of a
L
ong B oom
b
y
W
o
l
f
g
an
g
M
i
c
ha
l
s
k
i
,
R
i
e
l
M
ill
e
r
a
n
d
B
arr
i
e
St
e
v
e
n
s
.............................................. 7
C
ha
p
t
e
r 2
:
Sou
r
ces of
C
ontinued
L
ong-
r
un
E
conomic D
y
namism
in the
2
1st
C
entu
r
y
b
y
R
i
c
har
d
G.
L
i
p
s
e
y................................................................................................ 33
C
ha
p
t
e
r 3
:
T
he
E
me
r
ging
G
lobal
K
nowledge
E
conom
y
b
y
P
e
t
e
r S
c
h
w
art
z
, Ea
m
o
nn
K
e
ll
y
a
n
d
N
i
c
o
l
e
B
o
y
e
r ................................................. 77
C
ha
p
t
e
r 4
:
T
owa
r
ds
G
lobal
C
ompetition
:
C
atal
y
sts and
C
onst
r
aints
b
y
H
o
r
s
t S
i
e
b
e
rt
a
n
d
H
e
nn
i
n
g
K
l
o
d
t ........................................................................ 115
C
ha
p
t
e
r 5
:
W
o
r
king fo
r
W
o
r
ld
E
cological Sustainabilit
y
:
T
owa
r
ds a
“
New
G
r
eat
T
r
ansfo
r
mation
”
b
y
A
l
a
i
n
L
i
p
i
e
t
z
........................................................................................................ 139
C
ha
p
t
e
r 6
:
Polic
y
D
r
i
v
e
r
s fo
r
a
L
ong Boom
b
y
D
e
A
nn
e
J
u
li
u
s
..................................................................................................... 167
A
nn
e
x
:
L
ist of Pa
r
ticipants................................................................................. 195

7
1
1
A
natom
y
of a
L
ong Boom
2
b
y
3
W
o
l
f
g
an
g
M
i
c
ha
l
s
k
i
,
R
i
e
l
M
ill
e
r
a
n
d
B
arr
i
e
St
e
v
e
n
s
OE
C
D S
e
cr
e
t
a
ri
a
t
,
A
d
vi
s
o
ry
U
n
i
t
t
o
t
h
e
S
e
cr
e
t
a
ry-G
e
n
e
r
a
l
1.
I
nt
r
oduction
O
n
e
o
f
t
h
e
m
o
s
t
p
r
o
m
i
s
i
n
g
a
n
d
c
o
mm
on
ly
e
v
o
k
e
d
vi
s
t
a
s
o
f
t
h
e
f
u
t
u
r
e
c
e
n
t
r
e
s
on
t
h
e
d
a
zzli
n
g
p
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
o
f
n
e
w
t
e
c
hno
l
o
gi
e
s
. Fr
o
m
t
h
a
t
p
e
r
s
p
e
c
t
iv
e
m
a
n
y
o
f
t
o
d
a
y
’
s
p
r
o
f
oun
d
p
r
o
b
l
e
m
s
,
s
u
c
h
a
s
un
e
m
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t
,
m
a
l
nu
t
ri
t
i
on
,
d
i
s
e
a
s
e
a
n
d
gl
o
b
a
l
w
a
r
m
i
n
g c
ou
l
d
b
e
s
o
lv
e
d
t
h
r
ou
g
h
t
h
e
cl
e
v
e
r
a
pp
lic
a
t
i
on
o
f
b
r
e
a
k
t
h
r
ou
g
h
s
i
n
c
o
m
p
u
t
e
r
s
ci
e
n
c
e
, g
e
n
e
t
ic
e
n
gi
n
ee
ri
n
g,
n
a
no
-
d
e
vic
e
c
on
s
t
r
u
c
t
i
on
a
n
d
n
e
w
m
a
t
e
ri-
a
l
s
cr
e
a
t
i
on
.
T
h
e
s
e
ho
p
e
s
a
r
e
no
t
un
lik
e
t
ho
s
e
o
f
a
c
e
n
t
u
ry
a
g
o
,
w
h
e
n
t
h
e
d
e
v
e
l
o
p
-
m
e
n
t
a
n
d
d
i
ff
u
s
i
on
o
f
t
e
c
hno
l
o
gi
e
s
s
u
c
h
a
s
e
l
e
c
t
rici
t
y,
t
h
e
r
a
d
i
o
a
n
d
t
h
e
i
n
t
e
r
n
a
l
c
o
m
b
u
s
t
i
on
e
n
gi
n
e
p
r
o
m
i
s
e
d
a
n
e
w
e
r
a
o
f
hu
m
a
n
w
e
ll-
b
e
i
n
g.
W
i
t
h
t
h
e
b
e
n
ef
i
t
o
f
h
i
n
d
s
ig
h
t
,
ho
w
e
v
e
r, i
t
i
s
cl
e
a
r
t
h
a
t
r
e
a
li
s
i
n
g
t
h
e
p
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
o
f
l
a
t
e
19
t
h
c
e
n
t
u
ry
n
e
w
t
e
c
hno
l
o
gi
e
s
r
e
q
u
ir
e
d
m
a
j
o
r
e
c
ono
m
ic
a
n
d
s
o
ci
a
l
t
r
a
n
s
f
o
r
m
a
-
t
i
on
s
. E
x
t
e
n
d
i
n
g
b
r
e
a
k
t
h
r
ou
g
h
s
b
e
y
on
d
t
h
e
i
n
v
e
n
t
o
r
’
s
l
a
b
, i
m
a
gi
n
i
n
g
n
e
w
a
pp
lic
a
-
t
i
on
s
, r
e
a
li
s
i
n
g
b
r
o
a
d
d
i
ff
u
s
i
on
o
f
i
n
i
t
i
a
lly
un
f
a
m
ili
a
r
t
e
c
hno
l
o
gy
a
n
d
a
c
h
i
e
vi
n
g
d
ee
p
i
n
t
e
gr
a
t
i
on
o
f
c
u
tt
i
n
g-
e
d
g
e
t
e
c
hn
i
q
u
e
s
–
a
ll
o
f
t
h
e
s
e
p
r
o
c
e
ss
e
s
w
e
r
e
b
o
t
h
p
r
o
t
r
a
c
t
e
d
a
n
d
d
i
ff
ic
u
l
t
.
I
n
t
h
e
e
n
d
,
m
a
n
y l
a
n
d
m
a
rk
s
h
a
d
t
o
b
e
c
h
a
n
g
e
d
,
f
r
o
m
w
h
e
r
e
a
n
d
ho
w
p
e
o
p
l
e
liv
e
d
t
o
w
h
a
t
a
n
d
ho
w
f
ir
m
s
p
r
o
d
u
c
e
d
.
T
h
i
s
i
n
t
u
r
n
e
n
t
a
il
e
d
t
h
e
o
v
e
r
t
h
r
o
w
o
f
o
l
d
p
a
tt
e
r
n
s
,
o
f
e
n
t
r
e
n
c
h
e
d
e
x
p
e
c
t
a
t
i
on
s
a
n
d
a
cc
e
p
t
e
d
“
c
o
mm
on
s
e
n
s
e
”
no
t
i
on
s
–
no
t
t
o
m
e
n
t
i
on
e
s
t
a
b
li
s
h
e
d
m
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
t
h
e
o
ri
e
s
a
n
d
h
a
r
d
e
n
e
d
p
o
li
t
ic
a
l r
e
a
li
t
i
e
s
.
W
h
a
t
i
s
s
t
riki
n
g i
s
t
h
a
t
s
i
m
il
a
rly
d
r
a
m
a
t
ic
t
r
a
n
s
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
on
s
,
e
c
ono
m
y-
a
n
d
s
o
ci
e
t
y-
w
i
d
e
,
s
ee
m
on
c
e
a
g
a
i
n
t
o
b
e
a
r
e
a
li
s
t
ic
p
r
o
s
p
e
c
t
.
A
l
t
hou
g
h
t
h
e
r
e
h
a
v
e
c
e
r-
t
a
i
n
ly
b
ee
n
o
t
h
e
r
p
e
ri
o
d
s
i
n
r
e
c
e
n
t
h
i
s
t
o
ry
w
h
e
n
t
h
e
ou
t
l
oo
k
f
o
r
hu
m
a
n
ki
n
d
w
a
s
f
ill
e
d
w
i
t
h
p
r
o
m
i
s
e
,
t
h
e
c
u
rr
e
n
t
c
on
j
un
c
t
u
r
e
c
on
s
t
i
t
u
t
e
s
on
e
o
f
t
ho
s
e
r
a
r
e
m
o
m
e
n
t
s
w
h
e
n
a
c
on
f
l
u
e
n
c
e
o
f
d
iv
e
r
s
e
a
n
d
nu
m
e
r
ou
s
d
e
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t
s
g
e
n
e
r
a
t
e
s
n
e
w
,
p
o
t
e
n
-
t
i
a
lly r
a
d
ic
a
l
o
pp
o
r
t
un
i
t
i
e
s
.
T
h
e
s
e
a
r
e
no
t
a
f
o
rg
on
e
c
on
cl
u
s
i
on
,
f
o
r
t
h
e
n
e
c
e
ss
a
ry
p
o
lici
e
s
a
r
e
h
ig
h
ly
a
m
b
i
t
i
ou
s
a
n
d
on
ly j
u
s
t
on
t
h
e
ho
riz
on
f
o
r
d
e
ci
s
i
on
m
a
k
e
r
s
.
B
u
t

T
he
F
utu
r
e of the
G
lobal
E
conom
y
:
T
owa
r
ds a
L
ong Boom?
8
t
h
e
f
a
c
t
r
e
m
a
i
n
s
t
h
a
t
hu
m
a
n
i
t
y c
ou
l
d
r
e
a
p
hu
g
e
r
e
w
a
r
d
s
i
f
i
t
i
s
r
e
a
d
y
t
o
un
d
e
r
t
a
k
e
e
q
u
a
lly
s
ig
n
i
f
ic
a
n
t
c
h
a
n
g
e
s
.
T
w
o
f
a
c
t
o
r
s
l
a
rg
e
ly
a
cc
oun
t
f
o
r
t
h
a
t
un
c
on
v
e
n
t
i
on
a
lly
s
t
r
on
g c
on
cl
u
s
i
on
–
on
e
i
s
m
e
t
ho
d
o
l
o
gic
a
l,
t
h
e
o
t
h
e
r c
on
j
un
c
t
u
r
a
l. Fir
s
t
,
t
h
e
a
n
a
ly
t
ic
a
l
m
e
t
ho
d
a
d
o
p
t
e
d
h
e
r
e
f
o
r
e
x
p
l
o
ri
n
g l
on
g-
t
e
r
m
p
o
ss
i
b
ili
t
i
e
s
i
s
n
e
i
t
h
e
r
p
a
r
t
i
a
l
no
r li
n
e
a
r, c
h
a
r
a
c
t
e
ri
s
t
ic
s
c
o
m
-
m
on
a
n
d
j
u
s
t
i
f
i
e
d
f
o
r
s
ho
r
t
e
r-
t
e
r
m
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g.
A
s
y
s
t
e
m
ic
a
n
d
i
n
t
e
r
d
i
s
ci
p
li
n
a
ry
a
pp
r
o
a
c
h
i
s
w
h
a
t
e
n
a
b
l
e
s
t
h
e
i
d
e
n
t
i
f
ic
a
t
i
on
o
f
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