Article

An Analysis of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing in the United States

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Abstract

This paper relates the erosion of the custom of shotgun marriage to the legalization of abortion and the increased availability of contraception to unmarried women in the United States. The decline in shotgun marriage accounts for a significant fraction of the increase in out-of-wedlock first births. Several models illustrate the analogy between women who do not adopt either birth control or abortion and the hand-loom weavers, both victims of changing technology. Mechanisms causing female immiseration are modeled and historically described. This technology-shock hypothesis is an alternative to welfare and job-shortage theories of the feminization of poverty. Copyright 1996, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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... Increased access to abortion and the pill have been found to have substantial effects on women's family and labor market outcomes (Angrist & Evans, 1999;Bailey, 2006;Goldin & Katz, 2002;Guldi, 2008;Levine, Staiger, Kane, & Zimmerman, 1999;Myers, 2017). Although the literature on fertility controls focuses mainly on women, theoretical arguments suggest that changes in access to fertility controls may have affected men as well through a changed market for marriage and sex (see e.g., Akerlof, Yellen, & Katz, 1996). ...
... Second, Akerlof et al. (1996) note how the availability of contraceptives changed social norms regarding marriage and pregnancy. Until the early 1970s, it was customary for a couple to marry in the event of pregnancy. ...
... The effect of the pill on men could thus have been further emphasized through reduced responsibility in the case of unwanted pregnancy. Akerlof et al. (1996), for instance, relate the decline in shotgun marriages and the increase in extra-marital births to the legalization of abortion and the diffusion of the birth control pill. Third, the shift in women's bargaining power arising from their increased control over their fertility may have created incentives for men to shift their career plans toward occupations associated with higher incomes. ...
Article
In the 1970s, the proportion of male college freshmen who planned to become teachers dropped from 15% to 3%, and that of female freshman from 45% to 12%. In this paper, I use nationally representative survey data on the career plans of college freshmen to look at the roles played by increased access to fertility controls and the unionization of the teaching sector, in the decline in the popularity of the teaching sector during this period. I find that the overall impact of these factors on men was small and insignificant, whereas early legal access to contraceptives increased women’s likelihood of planning to become teachers. Looking at the actual career outcomes of the same cohorts in the census data, I find that access to the pill had a negative impact on the share of men in teaching and positive impact on the share of women. I use information on high school grades and college selectivity in the freshmen surveys to separate students by academic ability in the analysis. I find that unionization had a negative impact on plans to become teachers among high-ability men and low-ability women. Increased access to the pill had a negative impact on the share of low-ability men who planned to teach and a positive impact on the share among low- and medium-ability women.
... The analysis in this paper focuses on the marriage decision immediately following a nonmarital pregnancy, sometimes referred to as a "shotgun" marriage (Akerlof, Yellen, and Katz 1996). There are two reasons for focusing on this marriage decision. ...
... There are two reasons for focusing on this marriage decision. First, an influential paper by Akerlof, Yellen, and Katz (1996) finds that the decline of marriages following an out-ofwedlock pregnancy explains, in an accounting sense, the majority of the increase in out-of-wedlock births between 1965 and 1990. Second, these marriages are likely to be the most elastic with respect to child support laws: a couple with a pregnancy deciding whether to marry will consider what happens if they do not, a state of affairs governed directly by child support. ...
... Both pieces of evidence suggest that the estimates presented in this paper are a lower bound, in absolute value, of the true effect. 7 This calculation follows Akerlof, Yellen, and Katz (1996) and can be made as follows. Define the shotgun marriage rate as the fraction of couples who marry between pregnancy and birth. ...
Article
This paper studies the expansion of US child support policies from 1977 to 1992 and its consequences for marriage and fertility decisions. I develop a model showing that child support enforces ex ante commitment from men to provide financial support in the event of a child, which (1) increases premarital sex among couples unlikely to marry and (2) reduces the abortion rate by reducing the cost of child-rearing to single moms. Using variation in the rollout relative to the timing of nonmarital pregnancy, I find that child support policies reduced the likelihood of marriage and reduced the abortion rate. Supplemental appendices attached below.
... The expected lifetime value of life for a person who is currently single is shown by the line labelled N ( ) + S. This line is not a function of the realized value for w, as can be seen by inspecting equation (2). The threshold value for w, or w , at which the individual is indi¤erent between marriage and single life occurs where the w and N ( )+ S lines intersect. ...
... The three month survival rate, , is set at 0:9924 1=3 for 1900 and 0:9997 1=3 for 2001. 2 The failure rates for contraception are taken directly from the data, as discussed below. Last, the mean for marriageability distribution, or , is just a normalization. ...
... In their quantitative analysis better contraceptives result in both an increase in the fraction of teenagers having sex and the fraction of them becoming pregnant. Akerlof, Yellen, and Katz (1996) also focus on this puzzle. They suggest that better contraceptives, coupled with the availability of abortion, led to the disappearance of shotgun marriages, and as a result there was an increase in out-of-wedlock …rst births. ...
Article
Full-text available
The 19th and 20th centuries saw a transformation in contraceptive technologies and their take up. This led to a sexual revolution, which witnessed a rise in premarital sex and out-of-wedlock births, and a decline in marriage. The impact of contraception on married and single life is analyzed here both theoretically and quantitatively. The analysis is conducted using a model where people search for partners. Upon finding one, they can choose between abstinence, marriage, and a premarital sexual relationship. The model is confronted with some stylized facts about premarital sex and marriage over the course of the 20th century. Some economic history is also presented.
... The positive impact of reproductive rights on women's choices and economic opportunities has been extensively studied (Goldin and Katz 2002, Goldin 2006, Chiappori and Oreffice 2008. However, there is evidence that some women do not necessarily benefit from an increase in welfare after the introduction of new reproductive technologies because they refuse or fail to adopt them (Akerlof, Yellen, andKatz 1996, Pezzini 2005). If the introduction of these technologies has a direct -and contrasted -effect on women's welfare, little is known on how their male relatives form opinion on this issue. ...
... 5 On the other hand, an other strand of the literature highlights that the diffusion of birth control technologies can have contrasted effects on women's welfare. Akerlof, Yellen, and Katz (1996) argue that the legalization of abortion, as any technical change, can create both winners and losers. They show in a theoretical model that the introduction of a new technology of birth control can be detrimental to certain women, through a decline in the incentive to obtain a promise of marriage. ...
Thesis
Cette thèse étudie l’impact des normes de genre et des institutions sur les choix éducatifs, les décisions d’offre de travail et les préférences politiques. Dans le premier chapitre, nous nous intéressons à l’influence du genre des enfants sur les opinions de leurs pères en matière de droits des femmes. Nous montrons que la présence d’au moins une fille parmi les enfants est associée à des attitudes plus marquées contre l’avortement pour les pères de droite et inversement, plus favorables à l’avortement pour les pères de gauche. Nous développons un modèle théorique dans lequel les pères, qui ont des préférences paternalistes, ont tendance à adopter des positions politiques plus extrêmes lorsqu’ils ont une fille plutôt qu’un garçon. La partie empirique de l’analyse repose sur l’utilisation de deux nouvelles sources de données : une base biographique des députés français, et une enquête post-électorale au niveau européen. Nos résultats suggèrent que les filles polarisent les attitudes de leur père en matière de droit à l’avortement. Ces résultats réconcilient en partie les conclusions contradictoires des travaux récents sur l’influence des filles sur les opinions politiques de leurs pères. Le deuxième chapitre est issu d’un travail commun avec E. Duchini. Nous étudions les décisions d’offre de travail des femmes dans un contexte institutionnel qui limitait jusqu’à récemment leur capacité à bénéficier d’un emploi du temps régulier. Historiquement en France, les enfants en âge d’aller à l’école maternelle et primaire n’avaient pas classe le mercredi. Nous utilisons la réforme dites des rythmes scolaires comme « expérience naturelle ». Avant 2013, les femmes dont le plus jeune enfant était en âge d’aller à l’école élémentaire étaient deux fois plus nombreuses que les hommes à ne pas travailler le mercredi. Afin de mesurer la réaction de l’offre de travail des mères à la réforme, nous utilisons la variation de son application dans le temps et en fonction de l’âge du plus jeune enfant. Nos résultats montrent que la réforme a permis à un plus grand nombre de femmes de travailler le mercredi, entraînant, en moins de deux ans, une réduction d’un tiers de leur différentiel de participation ce jour de la semaine par rapport aux femmes du groupe de contrôle. Cet effet est essentiellement attribuable aux mères pour qui une présence régulière au travail est particulièrement profitable, comme celles qui travaillent à des postes d’encadrement. Le troisième chapitre présente les résultats d’une expérimentation avec assignation aléatoire conduite de septembre 2015 à février 2016 avec T. Breda, J. Grenet et M. Monnet. Cette expérimentation montre que l’intervention courte d’un modèle positif d’identification féminin (role model) peut influencer les attitudes des apprenants, et contribuer ensuite à modifier leur choix d’orientation. Dans un premier temps, nous présentons des éléments descriptifs sur les attitudes différenciées des filles et des garçons vis-à-vis des sciences, et sur l’importance des stéréotypes vis-à-vis des femmes dans les sciences chez les lycéens. A l’aide d’une assignation aléatoire des élèves dans un groupe traité et dans un groupe contrôle, nous étudions l’impact causal des modèles positifs d’identification sur les aspirations, les attitudes et les choix éducatifs. Ces modèles féminins extérieurs font baisser de manière significative la prévalence des visions stéréotypées associées aux métiers dans les sciences, tant chez les élèves filles que garçons. Le traitement n’a pas d’effet significatif sur le choix d’orientation des élèves de seconde, mais la proportion de filles qui s’orientent et sont admises en classe préparatoire scientifique après le lycée augmente de 3 points de pourcentage. Cet effet correspond à une augmentation de 30% par rapport à la moyenne du groupe de contrôle. Ces changements sont principalement attribuables aux élèves ayant les meilleurs résultats scolaires en mathématiques.
... The Sexual Revolution during the 1960s-1980 served to remove stigma from the pregnant unwed mother (Akerlof et al., 1996). Major events of the sexual revolution included the launching of the birth control pill, the normalization of premarital sex, and the legalization of abortion (Akerlof et al., 1996). ...
... The Sexual Revolution during the 1960s-1980 served to remove stigma from the pregnant unwed mother (Akerlof et al., 1996). Major events of the sexual revolution included the launching of the birth control pill, the normalization of premarital sex, and the legalization of abortion (Akerlof et al., 1996). Additionally, with the rise in single parenthood, adoption professionals emphasized the right of women to choose whether or not they wanted to place their child for adoption or raise their child on their own as a single parent. ...
Article
Full-text available
The current paper uncovered the pertinent discourses and themes of and about adoption in the United States throughout the following time periods: 1850-1919, 1920-1959, 1960- 1979, and 1980-present. Emergent discourses were placed in their historical context(s) and served to illuminate the conversations and movements that informed prominent adoption discourses, policies, and best practices throughout history. Through illuminating salient discourse and themes of adoption throughout history, a better understanding of how the perspectives that professionals, politicians, practitioners, and social scientists often hold as fundamental have the potential to change over time was afforded. A critical historical analysis provides a foundation for those working in the field of child welfare currently, and adoption specifically, to critically interrogate how their own philosophies, practices, conversations, and policy work may impact the pertinent discourses and themes of and about adoption throughout the 21st century.
... Some studies, however, show that women who became mothers in their teens (relative to teens who miscarried) had higher subsequent levels of employment and earnings (Hotz, McElroy, and Sanders 2005). 15. Akerlof, Yellen, and Katz (1996) suggest an alternative model in which family planning programs reduce the cost of nonmarital sex and, therefore, increase nonmarital childbearing. If nonmarital childbearing increases, this should tend to lower household incomes of the average child. ...
... Nonmarital childbearing and single headship rose dramatically in the 1960s and 1970s (McLanahan and Watson 2011;Bailey, Guldi, and Hershbein 2014), and both trends have served to increase child poverty over the longer term. If family planning programs encouraged these trends by reducing the cost of nonmarital sex, they could have increased nonmarital childbearing (Akerlof, Yellen, and Katz 1996). On the other hand, family planning programs could have dampened the longer term increase in nonmarital childbearing due to the reduced unwanted pregnancies among less committed couples. ...
Article
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This paper examines the relationship between parents' access to family planning and the economic resources of their children. Using the county-level introduction of U.S. family planning programs between 1964 and 1973, we find that children born after programs began had 2.8% higher household incomes. They were also 7% less likely to live in poverty and 12% less likely to live in households receiving public assistance. A bounding exercise suggests that the direct effects of family planning programs on parents' resources account for roughly two-thirds of these gains.
... Prior studies of PEPFAR programs have not exploited prospectively randomized research 10 Mahajan et al. (2008) and Stangl et al. (2013) review public health research on HIV/AIDS stigma. 11 Economists have studied stigma in other contexts (Moffitt, 1983;Vishwanath, 1989;Akerlof et al., 1996;Furuya, 2002;Ishida, 2003;O'Flaherty and Sethi, 2008;Bharadwaj et al., 2017); see Durlauf and Blume (2008) for a review. ...
Article
Full-text available
Using randomized methodologies, we study a common community HIV/AIDS program that seeks to promote HIV testing by improving knowledge and reducing stigmatizing attitudes. Contrary to expectations, the program has a substantial negative effect on HIV testing rates. We provide evidence of likely mechanisms behind the program’s negative effect: it inadvertently increased misinformation about HIV transmission methods, and worsened HIV-related stigmatizing attitudes. Subsequent household-level randomized treatments providing correct information and addressing stigma concerns counteract the program’s negative effect on HIV testing. These findings highlight the importance of improving knowledge and alleviating stigma concerns when promoting HIV testing.
... The increase in the rate of children born out-of-wedlock has been one of the main demographic features in the developed world during the past decades (Van de Kaa 1987). There is a plethora of explanations for the non-marital fertility phenomenon: unemployment (Olsen and Farkas 1990;Schneider 2015), welfare changes (Murray 2008), the decline of "shotgun marriage" (Akerlof et al. 1996), the support for single motherhood (Lichter et al. 1997;Garfinkel et al. 2003;Moffitt 1992Moffitt , 1994Moffitt , 2001, women's emancipation (Willis 1999) (Bertrand et al. 2015), and also other non-economic factors such as gender role conflict, altered attitudes, social norms, as well as technological and legal changes (Ellwood and Jencks 2004). Finally, the fall in marriage rates increases the odds of a birth occurring out-of-wedlock (Kearney and Wilson 2018). ...
Article
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This paper investigates the non-marital fertility evolution in the USA for the period between 1976 and 2016. Beyond the well-known determinants in this framework, we add and test for the Easterlin relative income hypothesis. Easterlin stresses the role of the material aspirations formed in childhood (denominator) relative to the current economic perspectives (numerator) of young men. That ratio defines the relative income. We employ panel dynamic techniques at the state level. We find a negative and statistically significant effect of the relative income in the share of children born out-of-wedlock. Most importantly, relative income is robust to the inclusion of marriage. The latter may imply a socio-economic mobility perspective.
... Menurut Akerlof, dkk. (1996), wanita yang mengonsumsi pil pada saat melakukan hubungan seksual pertamanya sebelum menikah merupakan faktor yang signifikan mencegah atau menurukan kelahiran di luar nikah. Garenne dan Zwang (2006), menyatakan bahwa kelahiran di luar nikah disebabkan adanya kegagalan penggunaan kontrasepsi. ...
Article
Kelahiran di luar nikah adalah setiap kelahiran yang terjadi di luar pernikahan di mana orang tua mereka tidak menikah secara sah. Wanita yang melahirkan di luar nikah masih dianggap tabu di Indonesia, karena kelahiran di luar nikah dianggap melanggar budaya dan hukum Indonesia. Menurut data Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia (SDKI) 2017, dari semua kasus kelahiran di luar nikah di kalangan perempuan usia subur di Indonesia, 53 persen di antaranya terjadi di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur. Kasus kelahiran di luar nikah di Indonesia terbilang sedikit karena keberadaan norma sosial, agama, dan stigma yang masih berlaku di masyarakat. Jadi, sebuah penelitian dilakukan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kejadian kelahiran di luar nikah. Karena angka kelahiran di luar nikah relatif rendah (kejadian langka) sehingga metode yang tepat untuk menganalisis masalah ini adalah Zero Inflated Poisson. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa untuk model log, variabel yang mempengaruhi jumlah rata-rata anak yang lahir di luar nikah adalah status kontrasepsi, tingkat pendidikan, dan status pekerjaan. Untuk model logit, variabel yang mempengaruhi risiko tidak memiliki kelahiran di luar nikah adalah status pekerjaan dan kelompok umur.
... More recently, Bronson/Mazzocco (2018) suggest that changes in cohort size over time and across states explain about half of the variation in US marriage rates since the early twentieth century. Finally, technological changes on birth control such as pill contraceptives (Goldin/Katz 2002) and abortion availability (Akerlof et al. 1996) affect the desire to marry. ...
Article
Full-text available
Easterlin’s relative income hypothesis refers to the current income of young adults compared to the level of material aspirations acquired during childhood. The hypothesis implies that young individuals are expected to reduce fertility if their material aspirations grow at a higher rate than their incomes. This paper examines whether the same hypothesis holds true for marriage. A higher (lower) level of income combined with a lower (higher) level of material aspirations would increase (decrease) relative income and consequently could affect marriage rates. Thus, relative income might be one explanation for the “marriage paradox” which indicates that young adults in the United States retreat from marriage despite perceiving it as a milestone of their lives. One might also expect relative income to be a better predictor of marriage than absolute income. This is because, according to the Easterlin hypothesis, the behaviour of young adults reflects not only their response to changes in external conditions (e.g. absolute income), but also to past events they have experienced. We employ panel dynamic methods and causality tests for the United States that span the period from 1981 to 2016. Empirical analysis supports the relative income hypothesis. Causality tests indicate that the relationship runs mostly from relative income to marriage rather than the other way round. Relative income emerges as a stronger predictor than absolute income in all of the methods employed.
... These emerging fertility patterns, especially non-marital fertility, come with several consequences for the mother, child, and the society at large. Some of these consequences manifest in the form of socioeconomic, household, and life course disadvantages for the mother and child, while, for the larger society, it could result in a strain on social welfare facilities and safety nets in places where such facilities are available (Akerlof et al. 1996; ...
Article
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Fertility and marriage are inextricably linked in sub-Saharan Africa, but recent changes, such as the rise in non-marital fertility, signals a weakening link, and the second demographic transition offers some explanations. Non-marital fertility comes with disadvantages, but it has not been adequately studied in Nigeria. Hence, this study examined the levels, patterns, and correlates of non-marital fertility, and offers implications for interventions and future research. Using data from the Nigeria Demographic and Survey 2008–2018, with a pooled weighted sample size of 11,925 unmarried women, percentage distribution was employed and a two-part model for count data was fitted, with the result showing that the level of non-marital fertility is 29%, and it is common among younger, rural dwelling, and uneducated unmarried women. The correlates of non-marital fertility include age, region of residence, level of education, religion, household wealth index, relationship status, ethnicity, work status, and age at sexual debut. Interventions to arrest rise of non-martial fertility due to its obvious disadvantages, should strengthen sexual and reproductive health programs for unmarried rural-dwelling young women, and revitalize welfare efforts for children born outside wedlock, for poor women, while future research should explore an in-depth understanding of non-marital births.
... Mahajan et al. (2008) andStangl et al. (2013) review public health research on HIV/AIDS stigma.10 Economists have studied stigma in other contexts(Moffitt, 1983;Vishwanath, 1989;Akerlof et al., 1996;Furuya, 2002;Ishida, 2003;O'Flaherty and Sethi, 2008;Bharadwaj et al., 2017); seeDurlauf and Blume (2008) for a review. ...
Research
Full-text available
Using randomized methodologies, we study a common community HIV/AIDS program that seeks to promote HIV testing by improving knowledge and reducing stigmatizing attitudes. Contrary to expectations , the program has a substantial negative effect on HIV testing rates. We provide evidence of likely mechanisms behind the program's negative effect: it inadvertently increased misinformation about HIV, and worsened HIV-related stigmatizing attitudes. Subsequent household-level randomized treatments providing correct information and addressing stigma concerns counteract the program's negative effect on HIV testing. These findings highlight the importance of improving knowledge and alleviating stigma concerns when promoting HIV testing.
... Teenage girls growing up in poverty or in a single-parent household are nearly twice as likely to have a teen birth as girls without these background disadvantage factors; they choose nonmarital motherhood instead of investing in economic progress because they feel that they have little chance of advancement (Kearney and Levine 2012). Analyses of national data show that the high rate of nonmarital births is a result of choice, not accident: only 15% of children born out of wedlock are unwanted and only 13% are truly unintended (Akerlof et al. 1996). ...
Article
The sexual revolution that took place in the late 1960s and early 1970s is one of the most profound social changes during the second half of the twentieth century in America. Before the revolution, there existed a norm proscribing premarital sex (PS norm); premarital sex was not accepted. After the sexual revolution, the PS norm no longer existed; premarital sex became accepted. In the literature on how premarital sex became accepted, little attention is given to the institutional change that transpired—the collapse of a sexual norm. This study specifies one micro-mechanism of this social change. Specifically, adopting methodological individualism and the prisoner's dilemma game, I develop a theory that explains how a technological innovation for contraception triggered a change in individuals' perception of premarital sex, which led to their behavioral change. As a result, premarital sex became accepted, and the norm proscribing premarital sex collapsed. I use General Social Survey data to test the hypothesized micro-mechanism of the institutional change. The empirical analysis supports the hypothesis derived from the theory. Based on the above analyses, I discuss two alternative explanations and the issue of teenage pregnancy.
... A mából visszatekintve jó okkal használja a KSH (2018) elemzése a "szülővé válás vastörvénye" kifejezést, a tanulói/hallgatói és a szülői szerep összeegyeztethetetlensége kapcsán. 33 Ez azért lényeges, mert azokban az életkorokban, amikor az oktatással kapcsolatos döntéseket meg kell hozni -a gimnázium esetében a 14. életév, az 31 Akerlof-Yellen (1996) kifejezése. Az Egyesült Államokban a "pill" elterjedését megelőzően, illetve azzal párhuzamosan gyorsan terjedt a méhen belül elhelyezett, hormont tartalmazó spirál (IUD) használata is. ...
Book
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A kötet a 2019. június 13-án, a Corvinus Egyetemen tartott hasonló című konferenciaelőadásait, illetve az azok alapján készült tanulmányokat tartalmazza. A címben található „2.0" arra utal, hogy 2012-ben, hasonló címmel, ugyancsak a Corvinus Egyetemen már tartottunk egy konferenciát, így az érdeklődő olvasó összehasonlíthatja, hogy a téma kutatása mennyit fejlődött 6 éve alatt. Az itt található nyugdíjreform elképzelések között sok a hasonlóság, de jelentősek a különbségek is, így azok alapos tanulmányozása és összehasonlítása javasolt, hiszen a szerzők sok helyen - expliciten vagy impliciten - egymással is vitatkoznak. Fontosnak tartottuk bemutatni a témával kapcsolatos szkeptikus hangokat is, bár a szerkesztők maguk úgy vélik, hogy a gyermeknevelést és a nyugdíjrendszert össze kell kapcsolni - ahogy az itt szereplő szerzők döntő hányada javasolja.
... A mából visszatekintve jó okkal használja a KSH (2018) elemzése a "szülővé válás vastörvénye" kifejezést, a tanulói/hallgatói és a szülői szerep összeegyeztethetetlensége kapcsán. 33 Ez azért lényeges, mert azokban az életkorokban, amikor az oktatással kapcsolatos döntéseket meg kell hozni -a gimnázium esetében a 14. életév, az 31 Akerlof-Yellen (1996) kifejezése. Az Egyesült Államokban a "pill" elterjedését megelőzően, illetve azzal párhuzamosan gyorsan terjedt a méhen belül elhelyezett, hormont tartalmazó spirál (IUD) használata is. ...
Book
Full-text available
A kötet a 2019. június 13-án, a Corvinus Egyetemen tartott hasonló című konferencia előadásait, illetve az azok alapján készült tanulmányokat tartalmazza. A címben található „2.0” arra utal, hogy 2012-ben, hasonló címmel, ugyancsak a Corvinus Egyetemen már tartottunk egy konferenciát, így az érdeklődő olvasó összehasonlíthatja, hogy a téma kutatása mennyit fejlődött 6 éve alatt. Az itt található nyugdíjreform elképzelések között sok a hasonlóság, de jelentősek a különbségek is, így azok alapos tanulmányozása és összehasonlítása javasolt, hiszen a szerzők sok helyen – expliciten vagy impliciten – egymással is vitatkoznak. Fontosnak tartottuk bemutatni a témával kapcsolatos szkeptikus hangokat is, bár a szerkesztők maguk úgy vélik, hogy a gyermeknevelést és a nyugdíjrendszert össze kell kapcsolni – ahogy az itt szereplő szerzők döntő hányada javasolja.
... Majority of them felt that, most men like exploiting women sexually and once they conceive they deny their responsibility and abandon them. These results are in agreement with Akerlof et al (1996) who argued that an important cause of rising rates of non-marital childbearing is a decline in the willingness of men to marry women who became pregnant with their children as an unintended result of non-marital sexual activity. ...
Article
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Fertility has been and is a major determinant of population growth in Kenya. The country has witnessed increasing levels of non-marital fertility. The rates are high for the unmarried women. Hence study was designed to investigate the factors influencing non-marital fertility in Makueni District of Kenya. A rural-peri-urban appraisal survey design was adopted targeting women aged between 15 to 49 years who had non-marital births. A total of 120 women from the study areas were sampled. The primary data on the demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors that influenced non-marital fertility in the district were collected. Various factors like age, family background, education, occupation etc. were focussed during carrying out this study. The findings of this study are important for the policy makers and administrators namely; the ministry of planning, ministry of health and the individuals with non-marital births. From the study findings it was recommended that the government will have to come forward to stop this abuse in society.
... Menurut Akerlof, dkk. (1996), wanita yang mengonsumsi pil pada saat melakukan hubungan seksual pertamanya sebelum menikah merupakan faktor yang signifikan mencegah atau menurukan kelahiran di luar nikah. Garenne dan Zwang (2006), menyatakan bahwa kelahiran di luar nikah disebabkan adanya kegagalan penggunaan kontrasepsi. ...
Article
Extramarital birth is any birth conceived outside of marriage where their parents are not legally married. According to data of Indonesian Demography and Health Survey (IDHS) 2017, from all cases of extramarital birth among women of childbearing age in Indonesia, 53 percent of them occurred in East Nusa Tenggara Province. So, a study was conducted to find out the factors that influence the incidence extramarital birth. Because the numbers extramarital birth relatively low (rare event) so the right method to analyze this problem is the Zero Inflated Poisson. The results showed that for the log model, the variables that influenced the average number of children who extramarital birth was contraceptive status, education level, and work status. For the logit model, variables that influence the risk of not to having an extramarital birth are work status and age groups.
... The importance of family structure as a potential source of variation for children's behavior problems is underscored by the fact that over the last 40 years dramatic changes in family composition have changed the living conditions of children (e.g., Bumpass & Lu, 2000;Kennedy & Bumpass, 2008;Seltzer, 2019). For example, in 1970, 11% of infants were born to unwed mothers (i.e., single and cohabiting; Akerlof, Yellen, & Katz, 1996), whereas 42% of all children today are born to unwed mothers (CDC, 2018). Compared to children living in families with two married parents, children living in other types of families (e.g. ...
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Although past studies have shown an association between union instability (i.e., change in family structure) and children’s aggressive behaviors, the mechanism by which this occurs is less understood. This study ( N = 3,387) examined whether father and mother involvement, coparenting support, and maternal responsiveness explained the association between union instability in early life and children’s aggressive behaviors at 9 years, and whether relationship status moderated this association. Findings reveal that only coparenting support mediated this association and only for children whose mothers divorced (not for mothers who experienced a nonmarital separation), suggesting that when a divorce occurs, the relationship between partners (coparenting) is more important than the relationship with children (parenting) for children’s social adjustment.
... The breakdown of the "shotgun marriage" rule in the United States, for instance, contributed to an increase in the percentage of families maintained by women alone. 14 The expansion of women's access to paid employment has often been accompanied by poor specification of women's rights to remuneration for family care from their children's fathers, their adult children, and more broadly, from the state. Increased family instability offers women more scope for individual choice, but less reliable networks of support. ...
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This essay offers a new way of visualizing structures of collective power based on gender, emphasizing the role of social institutions in shaping women's ability to bargain over the distribution of the gains from cooperation with men. It makes the case for an interdisciplinary conceptualization of bargaining power that emphasizes the role of imperfect information and inefficient outcomes, and explains important parallels between structures of collective power based on gender, age, and sexuality, and those based on other dimensions of socially assigned group membership such as race, ethnicity, citizenship, and class. Recognition of the importance of reproductive work helps advance the project of developing intersectional political economy.
... Our study contributes in several ways to the economic literature. Since the emergence of the economics of the family, economists have been increasingly interested in the determinants of nonmarital births (Akerlof et al. 1996;An et al. 1993;Burdett and Ermisch 2002;Ekert-Jaffe and Grossbard 2008;Grossbard and Vernon 2017;Lundberg and Plotnick 1995;Lundberg et al. 2016;Kearney and Levine 2014;Willis 1999;Wolfe et al. 2001). Economic studies have examined factors such as welfare benefits, income, educational achievement, labor market conditions, religiosity, race, and price and effectiveness of birth control. ...
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This is the first in Poland and fourth in the world report devoted to present the costs of family breakdown for the state and society.
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ABSTRACT This thesis discusses the issue of sexuality and reproductive rights. It examines Lesbian, Gay, Bi-sexual and Transsexual (LGBT) Rights but concentrates on homosexual rights (otherwise known as gay rights) particularly as it relates to human rights and discusses agitations raised. It analyses the impact of morality/religion as the supposed main opponent/ deterrent of the gay movement and seeks to find out if opposition to the movement can be confidently sustained outside the tenets of religion. This thesis recommends the way forward in the treatment of ‘gay rights’ and concludes by asserting that indeed outside of religion, there are arguments that can confidently be employed to truncate the stance of the gay movement.
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I estimate a structural model that nests four channels through which abortion costs impact partnership and fertility. Variation in parental consent laws helps to identify the relative importance of each theoretical channel, and simulations decompose total policy effects into theoretical channels. Results indicate that the largest effect of parental consent laws is on the abortion decision for pregnant minors. But there are also meaningful effects on marriage opportunities for pregnant minors and on sexual and contraceptive behavior. These effects combine to impact family structure and human capital accumulation over the life-cycle. Simulations show that parental consent laws reduce the accumulation of human capital via impacts of children on school attendance and also increase the probability that women spend time as unwed mothers. A counterfactual abortion ban is predicted to increase birth rates at all ages and subsequently increase unwed motherhood and reduce schooling.
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Chapter
This chapter introduces the complex history of the relationships among faith, politics and culture in state legislatures. Each of these concepts is explored by organizing them into three themes: separation, demography and polarization. The direction and content of public policies across the United State are influenced by these elements contributing to either the support or opposition to social change. State legislators are on the front line of these ideological divides. These variations by region contribute to the increase in single party control and have generated pronounced policy differences.
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We sketch a large-scale computable general equilibrium model of the macroeconomy that includes modern features such as financial derivatives. This model can be used to examine proposed new economic policies that involve large structural changes in the economy. To simulate and study the model, considerable computational power is required for extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We propose using a grid supercomputer to do these Monte Carlo simulations so that the results can be obtained in a reasonable amount of time. To evaluate the new policy, the supercomputer will run two sets of Monte Carlo simulations: (1) Baseline (2) Supercharged. Both sets contain trillions of stochastic simulations. After running both the baseline and supercharged simulations, the social welfare in the two possible scenarios can be compared to see if economic welfare was improved by the proposed supercharged economic policy.
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The current and forecasted image of the demographic processes and condition of the socioeconomic order of the West (evident e.g. the in case of pension systems based on intergenerational solidarity) calls for thorough reflection. Not only potential, but also increasingly real economic problems in this area indicate that the possibility of serious conflicts and tensions within Western civilisation is growing. To analyse and diagnose this developing crisis one needs to look "under the surface" of current social phenomena and processes and draw attention to fundamental cultural shifts. These are the background of such challenges as the advancing depopulation of Western countries. The question that lies behind these, which deserves thorough reflection, is the problem of responsibility for future generations and the related crisis of solidarity. The paper aims at exploring these issues.
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Several US states have recently restricted the access to abortions. We study fertility intentions and how family planning and abortions are used as mechanisms to control fertility among couples facing income risk. We formulate and estimate a life‐cycle consumption‐saving model with uninsurable income risk and imperfect contraceptive control that matches fertility behavior in the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) well. We use the estimated model to investigate how family planning and abortions are used to control fertility in our model. Our simulations suggest that income risk affects family planning and that abortion is used to control fertility due to the presence of income risk. This indicates that the availability of abortions might play a role as an insurance mechanism.
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Standard demographic analyses focus on changes in the share of marital and extra-marital births in the total number of births. The theory of the second demographic transition predicts that the increase in the share of extra- -marital births is caused by a decrease in bridal pregnancies which were conceived premaritally, but born within marriage. The objective of the article is to analyse this issue through decomposition of data from the registration of births (1985—2016) provided by Statistics Poland into marital and extra-marital births as well as bridal pregnancies. In the analysed period, the results of the analyses show a constant decline in the share of bridal pregnancies, accompanied by a simultaneous increase in the share of extra-marital births and a slight increase in the share of marital births.
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This paper explores the historical origins of the cultural norm regarding illegitimacy (formerly known as bastardy) in the context of the Habsburg Empire. We test the hypothesis that traditional agricultural production structures influenced the historical illegitimacy ratio, and have a lasting effect until today. We show that regions that focused in pre-industrial periods on animal husbandry (as compared to crop farming) had significantly higher illegitimacy ratios in the past, and female descendants of these societies are still more likely to approve illegitimacy and give birth outside of marriage today. To establish causality, we exploit for Austria, within an IV approach, variation in the local agricultural suitability, which determined the historical dominance of animal husbandry. Since differences in the agricultural production structure are completely obsolete in today’s economy, we suggest interpreting the persistence in revealed and stated preferences as a cultural norm. Complementary evidence shows that this norm is passed down through generations, and the family is the most important transmission channel. Our findings are one example for the more general phenomenon that cultural norms can be shaped by economic conditions, and may persist, even if economic conditions become irrelevant.
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Chapter
This chapter introduces the complex history of the relationships among faith, politics and culture in state legislatures. Each of these concepts is explored by organizing them into three themes: separation, demography and polarization. The direction and content of public policies across the United State are influenced by these elements contributing to either the support or opposition to social change. State legislators are on the front line of these ideological divides. These variations by region contribute to the increase in single party control and have generated pronounced policy differences.
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Para este trabajo, utilizamos datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares en diferentes años (2006, 2008, 2010 y 2012) y estimamos el efecto de los ingresos, la educación y la edad en la probabilidad de ser madre soltera. Encontramos una relación en forma de U invertida en particular para el caso del ingreso y de la edad. Este hallazgo permite sostener que existe una “lógi- ca económica” en la decisión de ser madre soltera en México para el período analizado. Al mismo tiempo nos permite comprobar empíricamente que la estructura familiar en México corresponde a cambios en las expectativas económicas de las personas.
Thesis
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U radu se razmatra pojava rađanja izvan braka na području Osječko-baranjske i Vukovarsko-srijemske županije u razdoblju od 1995. do 2015. godine. Glavni cilj rada bio je utvrditi prostorne razlike u učestalosti rađanja izvan braka u navedene dvije županije, primarno na razini naselja. Posebno je razmatran odnos između etničke strukture i rađanja izvan braka, a analizirane su i razlike između stanovništva gradskih i seoskih naselja te stope rađanja izvan braka u vremenu gospodarske krize. Analiza je provedena na temelju podataka vitalne statistike i popisa stanovništva. Rezultati analize su, zbog boljeg razumijevanja, prikazani pomoću tablica, dijagrama i tematskih (koropletnih) karata.
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This study develops an empirical model that measures the influence of state welfare, abortion and family planning policies on decisions concerning premarital pregnancy, abortion and single parenthood. Data are based on the fertility and marital experiences of white females from the three youngest cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, for 1979-1986. The results show that laws restricting contraceptive availability are associated with a higher risk of pregnancy. Restrictive policies on public funding of abortions reduce the likelihood of abortion, while greater availability of abortion services is associated with a higher likelihood that adolescents will obtain abortions. Finally, the estimates indicate that higher welfare benefits reduce the probability that pregnant adolescents will marry before bearing their children.
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In this paper we estimate the impact on adolescent childbearing of the liberalization of the New York State abortion law in 1970. Using Box-Jenkins time series techniques to analyze monthly data on the number of births to White and Black adolescents from January 1963 to December 1987, we found that the level of births to Black adolescents living in New York City fell 18.7 percent, approximately 142 fewer births per month, after the law became effective; the level of White births fell 14.1 percent, approximately 111 fewer births per month. Projections based on the fitted model suggest that a ban on legalized abortion today would have a major impact on adolescent childbearing in New York City as well as other parts of the country, although the magnitude of the change would vary according to local conditions.
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This paper reviews the current policies for fighting poverty and explores the impact they have had. We begin by reviewing trends in poverty, poverty spending and economic performance. It is immediately apparent that economic performance is the dominant determinant of the measured poverty rate over the past two decades. Government assistance programs expanded greatly over this period, but the growth in cash assistance was too modest to have major effects, and the large growth in in-kind benefits could not reduce measured poverty since such benefits are not counted as income. Next we focus on three groups: the disabled, female family heads, and unemployed black youth. We find little evidence that government deserves the blame for the problems of each group, and suggest that the broad outlines of current policies are defensible on economic grounds.
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The changes in family structures of black American households over the past three decades have been remarkable. In 1960, 33 percent of black children were not living with two parents. By 1988, the figure had risen to 61 percent. During the same period, the fraction of all black children born to an unmarried mother rose from 23 percent to over 60 percent. This paper examines the patterns of family change, briefly discusses their economic implications, and explores what is known about the economic reasons for those changes.
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This study employs Fishbein and Ajzen's social psychological model to examine young males' beliefs, attitudes, normative beliefs, and intentions regarding hypothetical living arrangements in the event of a nonmarital pregnancy to a girl they had been dating for a year. On the basis of this model, I anticipated that males' intentions would be a function of their personal attitudes and the perception of how they feel significant others would expect them to behave. Analyses are based on survey data from 325 high school males in a midwestern, metropolitan city. Almost 48% of the respondents indicated that they would be at least quite likely to live with their child and partner. Whites and blacks had similar intentions. The attitudinal and subjective norm components of this model combined to explain 32% of the variance in behavioral intentions. The attitudinal component was a powerful predictor of behavioral intention for blacks and whites alike, but the subjective norm component was a significant predictor of intention only for whites. The model worked best for respondents with college-educated fathers. Future research should consider the importance of the prospective mother and her parents in influencing a young father's intentions. Young fathers' specific motivations for assuming social fatherhood responsibilities should also be examined.
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* Beyond Welfare * Values and the Helping Conundrums * The Transformation of Americas Families * Poverty Among Two-Parent Families * Poverty Among Single-Parent Families * Ghetto Poverty * Choosing a Future
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Renowned American sociologist William Julius Wilson takes a look at the social transformation of inner city ghettos, offering a sharp evaluation of the convergence of race and poverty. Rejecting both conservative and liberal interpretations of life in the inner city, Wilson offers essential information and a number of solutions to policymakers. The Truly Disadvantaged is a wide-ranging examination, looking at the relationship between race, employment, and education from the 1950s onwards, with surprising and provocative findings. This second edition also includes a new afterword from Wilson himself that brings the book up to date and offers fresh insight into its findings. “ The Truly Disadvantaged should spur critical thinking in many quarters about the causes and possible remedies for inner city poverty. As policymakers grapple with the problems of an enlarged underclass they—as well as community leaders and all concerned Americans of all races—would be advised to examine Mr. Wilson's incisive analysis.”—Robert Greenstein, New York Times Book Review
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poverty status of female-headed families causes of the rise in female-headed families (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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This article examines the hypothesis that recent declines in black marriage rates have been driven by a declining pool of high-earning, young black men. Using 1970 and 1980 SMSA-level Census data to estimate a fixed-effect model of black marriage rates, I find that declines in the pool of "marriageable" black men are responsible for only a small fraction of the decline in black marriage rates. My estimates suggest that this decline in the number of high-earning, young black men explains only 3 to 4 percent of the decline in black marriage rates during the 1970s.
Article
We investigate the effect of abortion access on teen birthrates using county-level panel data. Past research suggested that prohibiting abortion led to higher teen birthrates. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that more recent restrictions in abortion access, including the closing of abortion clinics and restrictions on Medicaid funding, had the opposite effect. Small declines in access were related to small declines among in-wedlock births; out-of-wedlock births were relatively unaffected. Both results are consistent with a simple model in which pregnancy is endogenous and women gain new information about the attractiveness of parenthood only after becoming pregnant.
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This article disaggregates change in adolescent fertility between 1971 and 1979 into four components: change in marriage patterns, in nonmarital sex, in pregnancy, and in birth. It also assesses quantitatively the relative contribution of each component to the change over time in two fertility outcomes: the probability of a nonmarital live birth and, given a live birth, the odds of its being nonmarital. The changes in the probability of sexual debut prior to marriage and in marriage patterns themselves are the two most important contributors to these changes. The influence on the change in adolescent fertility outcomes of the decreased likelihood of marriage following a nonmarital pregnancy was compensated for by the increased use of abortion to terminate the pregnancy.
Article
In sum, it appears that legal abortion depressed overall fertility, but particularly illegitimate fertility, by giving women an opportunity to terminate their pregnancies when other means of birth control either had not been used or had failed. If legalized abortion had not been available, an estimated additional 39,000 illegitimate babies and 28,000 legitimate babies would have been born in 1971 in the United States. While this makes up a small part of total births (3,500,000), the illegitimate births prevented represent almost onetenth of all out-of-wedlock children born in the country in that year. In addition to preventing these births the legalization of abortion appears to have reduced the incidence of pregnancy-related marriages and thereby may have helped to limit subsequent marital disruption. Finally, legal abortion prevented large numbers of illegal abortions from occurring. Our data indicate that well over half—most likely between two-thirds and three-fourths—of all legal abortions in the United States in 1971 were replacements for illegal abortions.
Article
The persistent rise in the proportion of firstborn babies conceived out of wedlock, which characterized the period from the 1950s to the early 1970s, has apparently abated, according to data analyzed from the June 1980 and June 1982 Current Population Surveys (CPS). Although the proportion increased from 16 percent of firstborn children among women 15 years and older in the 1950-1954 period to 34 percent in the 1970-1974 period, it subsequently declined to 31 percent in 1975-1979, and has remained at that level. Since 1970, approximately 68 percent of firstborn children among teenage women have been conceived outside of marriage, four times the level recorded during the same period among women aged 20 and older. In addition, more than 90 percent of firstborn babies among black teenagers have been conceived out of wedlock, compared with about 60 percent among white teenagers. Among women aged 20 and older, about 50 percent of firstborn babies of black mothers and approximately 13 percent of firstborn babies of white mothers have been conceived outside of marriage. Despite the recent overall stability in the proportion of first babies conceived out of wedlock, a notable decline has occurred in the likelihood of mothers to marry before the birth of the child. Between the 1950-1954 and the 1970-1974 periods, about 50 percent of all women who had an out-of-wedlock pregnancy married before the birth; this proportion has since fallen below 40 percent.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Article
Many studies have reported significant empirical associations between family structure during childhood and children's outcomes later in life. It may be that living in a nonintact family has adverse consequences for children. On the other hand, it may be that some unobserved process jointly determines family structure and children's outcomes. How then should one interpret the empirical evidence on the relationship between family structure and children's outcomes? The answer depends on the question asked and on the prior information available to the researcher. We seek to interpret the association between family structure and high school graduation found among respondents in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth. We seek to answer the traditional question of the literature on treatment effects: How would the probability of high school graduation vary with family structure if family structure were not selected by parents but were, instead, an exogenously assigned “treatment,” as in a clinical trial or other controlled experiment? The inferential problem is that the data alone do not suffice to identify the treatment effect. Hence any attempt to estimate a treatment effect depends critically on the prior information available to the researcher. We develop alternative estimates of the effect of family structure on high school graduation, obtained under differing assumptions about the actual process generating family structure and high school outcomes. We first assume strong prior information and present estimates of a set of parametric latent-variable models explaining family structure and children's outcomes. We then assume no prior information at all and report estimates of nonparametric bounds on the graduation probabilities. Finally, we give non-parametric estimates obtained under the assumption that family structure is exogenous with respect to high school graduation. Our empirical analysis strengthens the evidence that living in an intact family increases the probability that a child will graduate from high school. We also report that the probability of high school graduation increases markedly with both parents’ education, regardless of family structure. At the same time, we stress that prior information is necessary if one is to do more than bound the effect of family structure on children's outcomes. Any point estimate embodies prior information about the process generating family structure and children's outcomes. As long as social scientists are heterogenous in their beliefs about this process, their estimates of family-structure effects may vary.
Welfare, Abortion and Teenage Fertility," mimeo, The RAND Corporation
  • Catherine A Jackson
  • Jacob A Klerman
Jackson, Catherine A., and Jacob A. Klerman, "Welfare, Abortion and Teenage Fertility," mimeo, The RAND Corporation, 1994. Jencks, Christopher, Rethinking Social Policy (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1992).
Pregnant Teen-Agers Are Outcasts No Longer The New York Times, Late EditionA Theory of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing
  • Lena C1 Williams
  • Robert J Willis
Williams, Lena, "Pregnant Teen-Agers Are Outcasts No Longer," The New York Times, Late Edition (December 2, 1993), C1. Willis, Robert J., "A Theory of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing," mimeo, University of Chicago and National Opinion Research Center, 1994.
Employment Opportunities of Young Men and Family Forma-tionThe Effect of Med-icaid Abortion Funding Restrictions on Abortions, Pregnancies and Births
  • Robert I Lerman
  • Phillip B Levine
  • B Amy
  • David J Trainor
  • Zimmerman
Lerman, Robert I., "Employment Opportunities of Young Men and Family Forma-tion," mimeo, Brandeis University, 1988. Levine, Phillip B., Amy B. Trainor, and David J. Zimmerman, "The Effect of Med-icaid Abortion Funding Restrictions on Abortions, Pregnancies and Births," NBER Working Paper No. 5066, 1995. Luker, Kristin, Abortion and the Politics of Motherhood (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1984).