Model compensation methods for noise-robust speech recognition have shown good performance. Predictive linear transformations can approximate these methods to balance computational complexity and compensation accuracy. This paper examines both of these approaches from a variational perspective. Using a matched-pair approximation at the component level yields a number of standard forms of model compensation and predictive linear transformations. However, a tighter bound can be obtained by using variational approximations at the state level. Both model-based and predictive linear transform schemes can be implemented in this framework. Preliminary results show that the tighter bound obtained from the state-level variational approach can yield improved performance over standard schemes.