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Implications of High Food Prices for Poverty in Pakistan
Abstract
The study estimates the impacts of rising world food prices on poverty in rural and urban areas of Pakistan. Household income and expenditure data for 2004/2005 is used to estimate compensated and uncompensated price and expenditure elasticities using the linear approximation of the almost ideal demand system. Taking the unexpected component of higher domestic food prices in 2007/2008, own and cross price compensated elasticities are used to derive the changes in the quantity consumed, food expenditure and impacts on poverty assuming the food crisis happened in 2004/2005. The results indicate that poverty increased by 34.8%, severely affecting the urban areas where poverty increased by 44.6% as compared to 32.5% in rural areas. The estimates show that 2.3 million people are unable to reach even one-half of poverty line expenditures while another 13.7 million are just below and 23.9 million are just above the poverty line. In the short run, it is important to ensure food availability to these people. In the long run, the policy environment of subsidizing urban food consumers by keeping wheat prices lower than the international price, needs to be reconsidered to provide the right incentives to increase food availability. Copyright (c) 2008 International Association of Agricultural Economists.
... 5 To draw conclusion on the sugar consumption pattern and growing profits of sugar companies in Pakistan. 6 To suggest measures for sugar prices control and policies along with to control the unjust profit earn by sugar mills in Pakistan. ...
... The obsession for sweets and sugar consumption is very high in Asian countries including Pakistan (Haq et al, 2008). Same is view of Zaman (2011) who says that statistical data in Pakistan shows that per capita consumption of sugar alongwith the overall calorie intake is increasing constantly. ...
... Natural shortage includes unfavorable weather conditions, adverse structure of market that ultimately decreases the production over a time period, and changes in government policies that might affect the production. However, artificial shortfall occurs by deliberate hoarding of goods to create shortage for undue profits Haq et al, (2008). It frequently happens in Pakistan especially during the month of Holy Ramadan that sugar crisis is created deliberately by the mill owners and distributors with a motive to maximize the rates of sugar for unjust profits. ...
Purpose- Major aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of price hike and purchasing power on sugar consumption pattern of individuals in Pakistan. The constant rising prices of food commodities including sugar, and the sugar crises the country mostly is seen caught into prompted researcher to conduct this study. Methodology/sample- The study involved use of questionnaires filled by 240 respondents and financial data of three sugar mills for the period of 2010-11 for financial analysis. The respondent individuals belonged to different age groups, social classes and areas of residence. To analyze the data, Regression, ANOVA and Correlation tests were applied. Data from three different sugar mills from three different provinces of Pakistan was also collected and financial analysis of their annual reports was conducted to determine their growing profits. Findings- The analysis and comparative results clearly suggested that individuals in Pakistan have decreased their sugar consumption due to increasing prices, while sugar mills are earning huge profits. It was also concluded that higher profits earned by the sugar mills was due to artificial shortage created by cartel making by the sugar mill owners in Pakistan. Practical Implications- The outcomes of the research might help the corporate decision makers, government policy formulators and other related quarters to understand the impact of rising prices of commodities in Pakistan and to understand the overall dynamics and mechanism of sugar sector in Pakistan.
... Demand price elasticity is the compensated elasticity (-0.568) was employed from Haq et al., (2008). The supply elasticity (0.649) was estimated econometrically by specifying a separate supply function (Annexure 9). ...
... Pakistan, 2009Pakistan, -2010. All the measure of poverty (Poverty incidence, Poverty gap and severity of poverty) is much higher in rural areas than in urban areas (Haq et al., 2008). According to Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) for 2007-08, the share of income from livestock was 6.08 percent in the household which varies among the different groups. ...
... The prices for some key food items like sugar, rice, eggs and meat (mutton and beef) grew sharply with an overall increase in the food CPI of 14.4 % between 2006CPI of 14.4 % between /2007CPI of 14.4 % between and 2007CPI of 14.4 % between /2008. The price of fresh milk was increased by 12 percent which accounts for 9.9 percent due to normal inflation (the expected price change) and 1.7 percent due to the food crises (unexpected price change) (Haq et al., 2008). According to Haq et al., (2008) "The implications of higher food prices are different for buyers and sellers of agricultural commodities and hence the debate over whether higher global food prices are good or bad for developing countries". ...
The objective of this thesis is to estimate the welfare effect under different policy scenarios and to analyse also the impact of white revolution (Dhoodh Darya—river of milk) on the welfare of producers, consumers and society as whole in Pakistan. After review, a partial market equilibrium model based on secondary data was developed to achieve the objectives. The model shows that 2.55%, 15.34% and 2% increase in the domestic price, independent of world market price tends to increase the producer surplus by US$ 405.1 million, US$ 2534.9 million and US$ 31.52 million, decrease the consumer surplus by US$ 411.1 million, US$ 2391 million and US$ 32.46 and the total welfare is increased by US$ 69.0 million, US$ 218.92 million and US$ 42.90 million respectively. Extending the partial market equilibrium to the change in the supply curve shows that due to the natural calamities, the supply of milk decreased by one percent leads to producer loss of US$ 95.50 million. But in the re-engineering of dairy sector, the Pakistan tends to be the net exporter in future. Different proposals made for the re-engineering of the dairy sector costs of US$ 298.8 million upto 2015 that leads to increase the welfare of the society by US$ 2034.39 million. Furthermore the discounted value of the welfare gained from the investment made in five years is US$ 408.335 million which is greater than the total investment value, shows that the projects are worthy and there is a net benefit to the total well being under Ceteris Paribus assumptions. Further research is needed to explore the dairy sector of Pakistan and a careful measurement should be made before making any change in the policy towards global trade liberalization.
... The findings we report will be valuable to tourism operators in Pakistan, since there is evidence they are interested in learning the preferences of their clients, including women, to design and offer attractive tourism packages (Haq et al., 2008). By knowing what leads to situations where women have the capacity to make expenditure decisions over R&Tand tracking alterations in these factorsthey will be better positioned to plan for the future by adjusting their offerings. ...
... Tourism operators in Pakistan (Haq et al., 2008) recognize that women are motivated to travel for R&T for a variety of reasons including; personal pleasurewhich includes opportunities to shopstatus within the household, family leisure, cultural enrichment, religious obligations, 4 and children's development. 5 Almani et al. (2012) assert that women in Pakistan are primarily responsible for managing the household and the nurturing of children given the prevailing norms. ...
... Recreation and travel tour operators in general (Kotler, Bowen, Makens, & Baloglu, 2017), and in Pakistan (Haq et al., 2008), learn and respond to the preferences of their clients in developing itineraries. Moreover, Eid and El-Gohary (2014) assert that Muslim tourism operators recognize that men and women do not seek identical things out of R&T experiences. ...
The aim of this paper is to provide information on how often women direct family expenditures over recreation and travel (R&T), the extent of their empowerment, and the factors that promote it. Bargaining and feminist theory predict that married women are more empowered to make R&T spending decisions if they: are employed, educated, and have additional children – but are less empowered if they reside in an extended family, especially if it larger by having more adults and if their mother in law is present. We test, and provide support for these hypotheses, using data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey.
... Ahsan, Iftikhar, and Kemal, (2012) observe consequences of price hike become more intense in developing economies such as Pakistan where more than 70 % of household's income is spent on food and high inflation adversely affects national welfare by decreasing purchasing power of people. Haq et al. (2008) estimated an increase of 32.2 % poverty in rural and 44.6 % in urban areas of Pakistan due to the food price shock of 2008. The price shock of 2008 have potentially pushed 10.3 million people into poverty in Pakistan reaching total number of people living below poverty line to 40.3 million (Haq et al., 2008). ...
... Haq et al. (2008) estimated an increase of 32.2 % poverty in rural and 44.6 % in urban areas of Pakistan due to the food price shock of 2008. The price shock of 2008 have potentially pushed 10.3 million people into poverty in Pakistan reaching total number of people living below poverty line to 40.3 million (Haq et al., 2008). The effects on poor were more intense as they have been further pushed below the poverty line (Easterly & Fischer, 2000). ...
... Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) is employed to estimate food elasticities. Our analytical plan closely follows the counterfactual experiments, estimation technique and specification of the LA-AIDS model given in Haq et al. (2008). Deaton and John Muellbauer (1980) introduced the AIDS model. ...
We estimate the effect of food price subsidy on poverty in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan in this paper. The study uses Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System for the estimation of compensated and uncompensated price and expenditure elasticities of food using Household Integrated Economic Survey. The estimated own and cross price Hicksian elasticities are used for estimating the changes in the quantity of food consumed, expenditure on food and its effect on poverty. The study uses two recent available poverty lines for estimation, showing that the scheme of food price subsidy increase real income of the households which has a decreased poverty state. The analysis shows that the subsidy program marginally decreases poverty in the province. The study recommends targeted food price subsidy for poverty alleviation and eradicating chronic hunger.
... They used the Almost Ideal Demand System proposed by (Deaton & Muellbauer, 1980). (Haq, Nazli, & Meilke, 2008) used Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System ( LA-AIDS) and included scale effect into the demand analysis for calculating own price, cross price, and expenditure elasticities. The main drawback of AIDS and LA-AIDS demand systems is the underlying assumption of a linear relationship between total household expenditure and budget shares. ...
... It proposes that rural households largely depend on cereal consumption or treat cereals as the necessity. The result is consistent with previous studies by (Malik, Nazli, & Whitney, 2015;Shabnam, Santeramo, Asghar, & Seccia, 2016;Haq & Cranfield, 2011;Haq et al., 2008). The expenditure elasticity estimates for sugar (1.03), milk (1.02) , and meat (1.21) were greater than unity (elastic) . ...
... Their research findings showed that rural and urban households needed 39.1 percent and 36 percent increase in income (without substitution effect), respectively, to maintain utility at the pre-crisis level . Another study by (Haq et al., 2008) used cross-sectional data set, HIES (2004-05), and estimated welfare effect of counterfactual price changes for the poor and the nonpoor in urban and rural samples. Their study found that counterfactual food price changes increased rural poverty by 32.5 percent and urban poverty by 44.6 percent. ...
This article adds to the existing literature by analyzing static and dynamic welfare impacts of food price changes for rural households in Pakistan. All three waves of Pakistan Rural Household Survey (2001, 2004, and 2010) were used. Lagrange Multiplier and a test of the coefficients of squared expenditure term (Likelihood Ratio test) were used to determine whether QUAIDS is an appropriate model or not. Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression (NLSUR) was used to estimate demand functions for eight food groups (Cereals, milk, and milk products, vegetables, cooking oil, pulses and other food). Results indicate inelastic expenditure elasticity of cereals in the pooled sample. Own price elasticities for all food groups, except other food, are smaller than zero during the entire sampled period (2001, 2004, 2010), and cereals are complimentary with meat and pulses, as suggested by cross price elasticities (uncompensated). Furthermore, results reveal that rural households needed a 28 percent increase in food expenditure and 26 percent increase in total expenditure to return to the previous level of welfare (year-2001).
... However, the price of wheat increased by 125 percent between 2005-6 and 2010-11. Existing analyses indicate that these price shocks entail significant additional expenditures to maintain their pre-crisis consumption levels [Haq, et al. (2008) ;Friedman, Hong, and Xiaohui (2011)]. There is thus overwhelming evidence that rising food prices and the decline in real wages have serious implications for poverty, food security, and nutrition through food consumption patterns in the country. ...
... In Pakistan, several studies have examined the effect of price change on consumption patterns during the last four decades [Siddiqui (1982); Burney and Khan (1991); Malik and Sarwar (1993); Burki (1997) ;Farooq, et al. (1999); Shamim and Ahmad (2007) ;Haq, et al. (2008Haq, et al. ( , 2011]. However, the analysis in these studies is based mostly on the data collected before the food price hike (i.e., before 2008). ...
... price-crisis studies, for example, Haq (2008Haq ( , 2011 and Friedman, Hong and Xiaohui (2011), provide useful information on the impact of food price crisis on the welfare of Pakistan's population. However, these studies are limited in several ways by the assumptions underlying their analysis. ...
The global food crisis of mid-2000s resulted in a several-fold increase in the prices of essential food items. Resultantly, the incidence of food insecurity, hunger, and poverty has increased in many developing countries [Ivanic and Martin (2008); Harttgen and Klasen (2012); De Hoyos and Medvedev (2009); World Bank (2010); Regmi and Seale (2010); Andreyeva, et al. (2010). Pakistan is also hit hard by this crisis. Prices of several food items increased by more than a 100 percent since 2006-07. Consequently, nearly half of the population is currently unable to meet its minimum (subsistence) caloric requirements for healthy and productive living [Malik, et al. (2014)]. A large proportion of household expenditure is spent on food (on average about 48 percent in 2010) and thus very little is left for the other expenditures necessary for human welfare, such as, health and education. Moreover, dietary diversity is extremely limited. Nearly 70 percent of food expenditure is on cereals, dairy, sweeteners, and fats. Wheat is the major source of calories, providing about half of the total daily calories [Malik, et al. (2014)]. However, the price of wheat increased by 125 percent between 2005-6 and 2010-11. Existing analyses indicate that these price shocks entail significant additional expenditures to maintain their pre-crisis consumption levels [Haq, et al. (2008); Friedman, Hong, and Xiaohui (2011)]. There is thus overwhelming evidence that rising food prices and the decline in real wages have serious implications for poverty, food security, and nutrition through food consumption patterns in the country
... Like in recent years, Cranfield et al. (1998) used An Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS), Huang and Bouis (2001) and Farooq and Ali (2002) estimated AIDS, Burki (1997), Aziz and Malik (2006) and Nazli et al. (2008) employed LA-AIDS. ...
... The table 1 and table 2 reports the uncompensated and compensated elasticity estimates. &Malik 2006 andNazli et al. 2008). The magnitude of the Marshallian own price elasticity for the meat fish and egg group is almost the same as obtained for meat by Nazli et al. (2008). ...
... &Malik 2006 andNazli et al. 2008). The magnitude of the Marshallian own price elasticity for the meat fish and egg group is almost the same as obtained for meat by Nazli et al. (2008). Some of the Marshallian cross price elasticities are positively signed but majority of these are negatively signed. ...
Over time there have been changes in world as well as in Pakistan. There is pacing urbanization and the country is a net
importer of many agricultural products despite being an agrarian country. Various factors determine changing consumption
patterns like income variation, price change, population change and urbanization. The aim of this research is to estimate
demand elasticities of the selected food groups in Pakistan using a panel of four Household Integrated Economic Survey Data
sets and employing a two-stage budgeting framework. Ordinary Least Squares regression at the first stage is utilized for
estimating per capita food expenditures. The second stage utilizes Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) for
estimation of budget shares of each food group which are used further to calculate elasticities. All the expenditure elasticities
are almost unity representing one to one relationship between the food groups’ demand and expenditures on them with
changing income. Own price Marshallian elasticities are negatively signed. The demand for all the taken food groups is price
inelastic. The selected food groups behave to be normal goods as expenditures’ elasticities for all is positive. Majority of the
Hicksian cross price elasticities are positive representing food groups to be substitutes of each other. Compensated own price
elasticities for the selected food groups bear expected negative sign. As all food groups have proved to be price inelastic,
government should carefully design its taxation and pricing policies so that the most vulnerable section of the society is not
badly affected.
... For estimation of food demand and its changes and responsiveness to various factors, numerous demand systems and numerous extensions of AIDS have been used in literature. Like in recent years, Cranfield et al. (1998) used An Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS), Huang and Bouis (2001) and Farooq and Ali (2002) estimated AIDS, Burki (1997), Aziz and Malik (2006) and Nazli et al. (2008) employed LA-AIDS. Problem with AIDS is this that the demand equations are unrelated as none of the endogenous quantities are on the right-hand side of equations. ...
... (84.15)*** (12.7)*** (9.79)*** Values in parentheses represent Z-values, Significance level is denoted by *** for 1%, ** for 5% and * for 10%, Vegfruit = Vegetables and fruits, MFE = Meat, fish and eggs, Ptexp= Per capita total expenditures, Ptexps= Per capita total expenditures' square (Aziz & Malik 2006, Nazli et al. 2008, and Hayat et al. 2016. The magnitude of the Marshallian own price elasticity for the meat fish and egg groups are almost the same as obtained for meat by Nazli et al. (2008). ...
... Values in parentheses represent Z-values, Significance level is denoted by *** for 1%, ** for 5% and * for 10%, Vegfruit = Vegetables and fruits, MFE = Meat, fish and eggs, Ptexp= Per capita total expenditures, Ptexps= Per capita total expenditures' square (Aziz & Malik 2006, Nazli et al. 2008, and Hayat et al. 2016. The magnitude of the Marshallian own price elasticity for the meat fish and egg groups are almost the same as obtained for meat by Nazli et al. (2008). Some of the Marshallian cross price elasticities are positively signed but majority of these are negatively signed. ...
Over time there have been changes in the world as well as in Pakistan. There is pacing urbanization and the country is a net
importer of many agricultural products despite being an agrarian country. Various factors determine changing consumption
patterns like income variation, price change, population change and urbanization. The aim of this research is to estimate
demand elasticities of the selected food groups in Pakistan using a panel of four Household Integrated Economic Survey Data
sets and employing a two-stage budgeting framework. Ordinary Least Squares regression at the first stage is utilized for
estimating per capita food expenditures. The second stage utilizes Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) for
estimation of budget shares of each food group which are used further to calculate elasticities. All the expenditure elasticities
are almost unity representing one to one relationship between the food groups’ demand and expenditures on them with
changing income. Own price Marshallian elasticities are negatively signed. The demand for all the taken food groups is price
inelastic. The selected food groups behave to be normal goods as expenditures’ elasticities for all is positive. Majority of the
Hicksian cross price elasticities are positive representing food groups to be substitutes of each other. Compensated own price
elasticities for the selected food groups bear expected negative sign. As all food groups have proved to be price inelastic, the government should carefully design its taxation and pricing policies so that the most vulnerable section of the society is not
badly affected.
... For estimation of food demand and its changes and responsiveness to various factors, numerous demand systems and numerous extensions of AIDS have been used in literature. Like in recent years, Cranfield et al. (1998) used An Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS), Huang and Bouis (2001) and Farooq and Ali (2002) estimated AIDS, Burki (1997), Aziz and Malik (2006) and Nazli et al. (2008) employed LA-AIDS. Problem with AIDS is this that the demand equations are unrelated as none of the endogenous quantities are on the right-hand side of equations. ...
... (84.15)*** (12.7)*** (9.79)*** Values in parentheses represent Z-values, Significance level is denoted by *** for 1%, ** for 5% and * for 10%, Vegfruit = Vegetables and fruits, MFE = Meat, fish and eggs, Ptexp= Per capita total expenditures, Ptexps= Per capita total expenditures' square (Aziz & Malik 2006, Nazli et al. 2008, and Hayat et al. 2016. The magnitude of the Marshallian own price elasticity for the meat fish and egg groups are almost the same as obtained for meat by Nazli et al. (2008). ...
... Values in parentheses represent Z-values, Significance level is denoted by *** for 1%, ** for 5% and * for 10%, Vegfruit = Vegetables and fruits, MFE = Meat, fish and eggs, Ptexp= Per capita total expenditures, Ptexps= Per capita total expenditures' square (Aziz & Malik 2006, Nazli et al. 2008, and Hayat et al. 2016. The magnitude of the Marshallian own price elasticity for the meat fish and egg groups are almost the same as obtained for meat by Nazli et al. (2008). Some of the Marshallian cross price elasticities are positively signed but majority of these are negatively signed. ...
... The pattern of food consumption, particularly animal protein sources, can be used to estimate the level of household welfare [1]. When a household's income is higher, the proportion of expenditure on food consumption is lower; when the household's income is lower, the proportion of expenditure on food consumption is great [1][2][3][4][5]. ...
... The pattern of food consumption, particularly animal protein sources, can be used to estimate the level of household welfare [1]. When a household's income is higher, the proportion of expenditure on food consumption is lower; when the household's income is lower, the proportion of expenditure on food consumption is great [1][2][3][4][5]. Households with an increasing level of economic welfare will consume more non-food than food, given that food demands are supplied adequately. ...
The pattern of food consumption determines the level of household welfare, but for households with low income, the share of food expenditure is dominated by carbohydrate food. Protein foods are the second food consumed after carbohydrate staple foods. This study analyzes food consumption patterns away from home as a source of protein for households in Indonesia. The research data uses secondary data in the form of Susenas data in 2020 which covers of thirty-four provinces and the samples cover 334,127 households in total. The research data is in the form of total household expenditure data, data on the number of household members, consumption and expenditure data of FAFH as a source of household protein in Indonesia covering eight types of food, namely 1) soup namely soto, gule, sop, rawon 2) satay, tongseng 3) meatball noodles, chicken noodles 4) cooked fish 5) cooked chicken or meat 6) processed meat 7) chicken porridge, and 8) dumplings, batagor. The consumption preference model approach uses the Probit Model. The results showed that all FAFH foods had a high significant effect on FAFH consumption patterns. However, the household size variable shows a negative relationship. The higher the household size, the lower the possibility of consuming FAFH. The findings of this study demonstrate that, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the intake of FAFH protein is increasing, albeit at a very slow rate. This also demonstrates that FAFH food is a source of protein for households in Indonesia.
... Based on those bands, the graduation level of respondents for each band was measured. The cut-off band and categories of poor were adopted from the assessment of measuring the impact of PPAF (Pakistan poverty alleviation fund) interventions using the Pakistan poverty scorecard (PPAF 2012), where the categories are (1) extremely poor, who are the poor who are at less than or equals to 50% of the poverty line, (2) chronically poor, who are the poor who will remain poor due to their basic characteristics, has structural poverty and are at 50-75% of the poverty line, (3) transitory poor, who are the poor whose level of poverty transition changes due to income or expenditure shocks and are at 75-100% of the poverty line, (4) transitory vulnerable, who are the poor whose level of poverty is susceptible due to income or expenditure shocks and are at 100-125% of the poverty line, (5) transitory non-poor, who are the poor who are at 125-200% of the poverty line and (6) non-poor, who are the people who have a low chance of being poor and thus enjoy a high level of consumption and are at above 200% of the poverty line (Finance Division 2008; Haq et al. 2008;Sean O'Leary et al. 2011;World Bank 2007). The categories of poverty starting from extremely poor to non-poor were identified by PRSP-II (Finance Division 2008) for further analysis of the severity of poverty (Sean O'Leary et al. 2011). ...
... The categories of poverty starting from extremely poor to non-poor were identified by PRSP-II (Finance Division 2008) for further analysis of the severity of poverty (Sean O'Leary et al. 2011). Haq et al. (2008) and Sean Sean O'Leary et al. (2011) have also used these six categories of poverty for the analysis and classifications of poor people. Although initially these categories were developed based on expenditure per adult, PPAF (2012) has modified and developed these categories based on poverty score with the help of the world bank's guidelines. ...
This study aims to measure the impact of an intervention, the Community Investment Fund (CIF), on the socio-economic life of rural women. CIF is a community-managed fund aimed at improving the living standards of women by empowering them to undertake income-generating projects to become financially more stable and self-governed in the Khairpur, Shikarpur, Kandhkot-Kashmore and Jacobabad districts of Sindh, Pakistan. This study used a quasi-experimental design approach that involved two groups, i.e., the treatment group (beneficiaries) and control group (non-beneficiaries). The sample size of this study was 708 respondents including the treatment and control group. The results of comparison of mean indicate that there is a significant difference between treatment and control group in terms of socio-demographic variables (including monthly income and consumption, saving amount, total asset value, an asset purchased value and household diet) and women empowerment’s indicators, thereby suggesting that CIF has resulted in women empowerment. Concerning the results of the poverty scorecard, the higher graduation of beneficiaries (treatment group) asserts that the intervention of CIF has also a positive impact on targeted beneficiaries. In particular, the findings indicate that 72% of beneficiaries (treatment group) have graduated from one poverty band to another higher band compared to 59.4% of non-beneficiaries (control group) in poverty score. In addition, the findings of the logistic regression analysis confirmed that participation in the CIF program empowers women beneficiaries. This study will support policymakers to further improve CIF so that it can become more effective and sustainable.
... In response to the 2007-2008 food crisis, an extensive body of simulation-based research concluded that higher food prices increase poverty in the short run, [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19] precisely household surveys indicated a surprising number of poor households are net food consumers, even in rural areas. 20 Yet even early on in the crisis, there was skepticism of these findings. ...
After a long secular decline in the 20th century, food prices spiked sharply in 2007-08, 2010-11 and again in 2021-22. While often termed “food crises”, economists disagree on whether rising food prices increase or decrease poverty: poor people have high food expenditure shares but also produce and sell food, and higher food prices trigger food supply responses and growth in rural wages. One limitation of previous econometric studies is their focus on medium-run multi-year impacts, even though simulation analyses typically find negative impacts in the short run. In this study we therefore construct and analyze a novel short run panel of annual poverty and food price data for 33 middle income countries (MICs) over 2000-2019. Using standard panel data techniques, we find that increases in the real price of food predict reductions in $3.20/day poverty in less urbanized countries but increases in poverty in the most urbanized MICs.
... It has started to give twelve thousand rupees to 7 million daily wage labor but it is too small amount to support a whole family for three months (Iftikhar, 2020). Researches informed that the outlays of a middle size family of 4 to six members were calculated from fourteen to seventeen thousand rupees per month (Haq et al, 2008). The financial problems of students' parent directly affect the psychological wellbeing of them during the lockdown when all educational institutions are further bolted till 31 August 2020. ...
Purpose of the study: The main purpose of the study was to find out “the effect of covid-19 contagion and mental health of the students at higher secondary schools in Dera Ismail Khan”. Methodology: The descriptive method of research was used in this study. Convenient and snowball sampling techniques were used to get the required data. For data analysis mean, standard deviation, p-value, and t-distribution were used. Main Findings: It was found that parents’ perceptions were very positive as 77.9 % of parents agreed with the 15 statements of the questionnaire. The difference between the perceptions of urban and rural parents remained insignificant and their perceptions were nearly similar about the topic under research. So, Pakistan should adopt all the necessary measures to restore the mental health of students through any means and at any cost. Applications of this study: This current study is applicable in the mental health of high and higher secondary schools students of district Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Novelty/Originality of this study: The results of this research imitate its innovation. This research targeted to find the effect of corona various on the mental health of the higher secondary school students. This research will provide us with complete awareness about covid-19 and its effect on the mental health of higher secondary school students. This research provides us with a strong root for covid-19 and its effect on students' mental health and also provides us psychological treatment as well.
... Punjab is in smart lockdown ever since because the government does not afford to pay every person. The monthly food expense of an average household composed of five family members ranges between Rs.14,000 to Rs.17,000 (Haq, Nazli, & Meilke, 2008). After the conversion to smart lockdown, earning activities resumed and people began to earn on their own. ...
Desperate times call for desperate measures. This study explores those assessment tools which may enlighten the current pandemic situation. It assesses the link between the COVID-19 incidence and its effects on the length of the expected recessionary period in the region. Being a developing economy, the Prime Minister of Pakistan feared that the severity of recession because of a strict lockdown may not be tolerable. This study developed a theoretical model to explain the possible parameters and tradeoffs which can help in the decision to ease the lockdown. Previously, social and print media focused on the reporting of COVID-19 cases and consequently, its mortality rate. This study used the relative forms of recovery and mortality rates to assess their quadratic/nonlinear pattern with respect to time. It is proposed here that the government should use more complicated plots to assess how COVID-19 is evolving and should also prepare a fact-finding team to assess the situation for easing the lockdown. Received Date: June 30, 20202 Last Received: October 10, 2020 Acceptance: December 8, 2020
... Inflation is the prime reason for poverty in Pakistan. Haq, Nazli, and Meilke (2008) has investigated the food prices and its effect on poverty. In rural areas, people who have no link to the agriculture sector are less productive (Adams & He, 1995). ...
The objective of the study was to check the factors determining poverty and child mortality in Pakistan. We used secondary data, collected from various economic surveys and the World Bank. OLS technique used to find the relationship between variables. Consumer Price Index (CPI), GDP growth, number of hospitals, and unemployment used as independent variables. For poverty, female literacy rate, male literacy rate, immunization, and GDP growth used as independent variables for child mortality. The study showed that CPI, GDP growth, and the unemployment rate have a positive relationship with poverty whereas the number of hospitals has a negative relationship with poverty. Furthermore, the study revealed that the female literacy rate has a negative impact on infant mortality while the male literacy rate has no significant impact on the infant mortality rate. Immunization has a negative and significant relationship with the infant mortality rate. GDP growth has a positive impact on the infant mortality rate due to high inequality in Pakistan. Authors recommended that parental education, water quality, and motivation to mothers to utilize health facilities can play an important role to reduce poverty and child mortality.
... Using the baseline incidence (Y 0 ) of population (P op ) of 20.7 million, the health impact (ΔΥ) for the air-quality changes (ΔPM) (Haq et al., 2008) were estimated by Eq. (1): ...
Particulate matter (PM2.5) has a severe impact on human health. The concentration of PM2.5, related to air-quality changes, may be associated with perceptible effects on people's health. In this study, computer intelligence was used to assess the negative effects of PM2.5. The input data, used for the evaluation, were grid definitions (shape-file), PM2.5, air-quality data, incidence/prevalence rates, a population dataset, and the (Krewski) health-impact function. This paper presents a local (Pakistan) health-impact assessment of PM2.5 in order to estimate the long-term effects on mortality. A rollback-to-a-standard scenario was based on the PM2.5 concentration of 15 μg m⁻³. Health benefits for a population of about 73 million people were calculated. The results showed that the estimated avoidable mortality, linked to ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, was 2,773 for every 100,000 people, which accounts for 2,024,290 preventable deaths of the total population. The total cost, related to the above mortality, was estimated to be US $ 1,000 million. Therefore, a policy for a PM2.5-standard up to 15 μg m⁻³ is suggested.
... inflation has become particularly important to many developing countries over the past decades (Durevall, Loening, & Birru, 2013;Furceri, Loungani, Simon, & Wachter, 2016). Not only that, high food price causes welfare loss and even poverty and health problems (such as child malnutrition, obesity) in developing countries (Benson, Mugarura, & Wand, 2008;Haq, Nazli, & Meilke, 2008;Ivanic & Martin, 2008;Anríquez, Daidone, & Mane, 2013;Arndt, Hussain, Salvucci, & Østerdald, 2016;Cornia, Deotti, & Sassi, 2016;Dawe & Maltsoglou, 2014;de Hoyos & Medvedev, 2011;Grossman, Tekin, & Wada, 2014;Minot & Dewina, 2015;Valero-Gil & Valero, 2008;Warr, 2008). These phenomena may not seem surprising, as food weighs heavily in most consumption baskets and is not easily substitutable by other goods. ...
In this paper, we examine the effects of shocks in agricultural output, production material price and production price on China's food price using panel data of 26 provinces for the period 2004 Q1–2015 Q4. Employing a heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, we identify the causal flows between the endogenous variables via directed acyclic graphs method. The empirical results from impulse response functions and variance decompositions suggest sizeable cross‐province variations. The main driving force of food price is the price inertia shock, rather than the agricultural output or the vertical chain of price transmission shocks. The findings support the view that price expectation is the key shifter of food price. Moreover, the shocks in the vertical chain of price transmission are only weakly linked to food price. Our findings are robust to an alternative panel SVAR model identified via Cholesky decomposition.
... The Pakistan government has quickly responded to the crisis and announced a 300 million relief package, which includes food and cash transfers. Several provincial governments have announced their own support packages [11]. The central government's relief package, called Ehasas Cash program (Prime Minister's plan for well-being of the poor), is aimed at providing safety nets for those hit the hardest by the COVID-19 lockdown. ...
COVID-19 now spreading in Pakistan, massive consequences to health and livelihoods are feared as lockdown impacted the food basket and triggered logistics and harvest crisis especially in Punjab and Sindh. Millions of farmers are at the edge of disaster due to shortage of means of transportation, absence of labor force and threat of COVID-19 transmission. We addressed the impact of lockdown on wheat harvesting season in Pakistan and food prices post-COVID-19 outbreak and agriculture supply chain management of vegetables, fruits and pulses. As reported cases increasing in agricultural bread baskets of Pakistan (Punjab and Sindh) in which approximately 70% of harvest of wheat depend on traditional farm laborers, who came from low-income and remote zones before the harvesting period. But this time due to prolonged and partial lock down in all remote and industrial zones of country they could not make it the right profit of the year. The Government announced finical support packages and partially lifted the ban on movement of carriage and equipment for harvesting, but the announcement packages shown to be not as much of useful because most of our machinery needs maintenances
and repairing every year around the harvest season and the workshops continued in state of shutdown. It is imperative to keep an eye on the food situation in the country in the middle of this pandemic because keeping supply chains functioning well is crucial to food security. It should be noted that 2 to 3 million deaths in the Bengal famine of 1943 were due to food supply disruptions - not a lack of food availability. There have been information’s of certain anxiety and panic purchasing and interruptions in logistics. It is recommended that to safeguard food security and to reduce the impact of the lockdown,
we need to review food policy and analyze how market forces will respond to the imbalanced supply and demand, storage facilities and capacity, price control of products.
... The Pakistan government has quickly responded to the crisis and announced a 300 million relief package, which includes food and cash transfers. Several provincial governments have announced their own support packages [11]. The central government's relief package, called Ehasas Cash program (Prime Minister's plan for well-being of the poor), is aimed at providing safety nets for those hit the hardest by the COVID-19 lockdown. ...
... This means that, food prices if not checked, can easily lead to more population being declared as leaving below poverty line. This is also attributed by [13] who argues that if world food prices remain high and the government decides to increase domestic prices to international prices, safety nets will be required for the most vulnerable households as they will not be able to sustain their livelihood. Findings from the study by [14] also confirm that increased food prices ranging between 10 to 30 percent affects increase in overall poverty up to 12 percentage points with food poverty alone increasing up to 20 percentage points as a result of the food price rise ranging from 10 percent to 30 percent. ...
Food Prices accounts for about 36% of the overall consumer price index in Kenya and it's the single largest of the 12 components that make up the index. Therefore, shocks in food prices could considerably be transmitted to the overall consumer price index. While Kenya agricultural production is heavily rain-fed, external pressures from and shocks from crude oil price, international trade are transmitted inwards and pile more pressure on food prices as well. While inflation tend to follow all the available information in the market and business per the rational expectations' theory, price factors are a key determinant of business cycles, because price stickiness tend to drive demand. Therefore, demand for food products could be driven by several market features including internal food prices, oil prices, productions and importation costs. The objective of this research was to analyze the effect of Trade openness on food inflation in Kenya with a view of establishing if Romer's hypothesis holds in Kenya. The second objective is to establish the effect of crude oil prices on food inflation in Kenya. The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegrating technique to estimate both short-run and long run estimates. The study findings indicate that trade openness significantly has a reducing influence on food inflation hence confirming the existence of Romer's hypothesis in Kenya. Secondly, crude oil prices have a positive and significant effect on food inflation. Interestingly, the study found that money supply does not have significant influence on food inflation. The study recommends embracing and adopting international free trade agreements to further leverage on imports prices, increase buffer storage to cushion against food demand and hence stabilize food prices. Secondly the government should enhance further price controls on oil prices to reduce spillovers to food production and supply costs. In addition, Kenya should develop technologies to improve agricultural farm production to leverage dependence of rain-fed agricultural sector.
... The Pakistan government has quickly responded to the crisis and announced a 300 million relief package, which includes food and cash transfers. Several provincial governments have announced their own support packages [11] . ...
COVID-19 now spreading in Pakistan, massive consequences to health and livelihoods are feared as lockdown impacted the food basket and triggered logistics and harvest crisis especially in Punjab and Sindh. Millions of farmers are at the edge of disaster due to shortage of means of transportation, absence of labor force and threat of COVID-19 transmission. We addressed the impact of lockdown on wheat harvesting season in Pakistan and food prices post-COVID-19 outbreak and agriculture supply chain management of vegetables, fruits and pulses. As reported cases increasing in agricultural bread baskets of Pakistan (Punjab and Sindh) in which approximately 70% of harvest of wheat depend on traditional farm laborers, who came from low-income and remote zones before the harvesting period. But this time due to prolonged and partial lock down in all remote and industrial zones of country they could not make it the right profit of the year. The Government announced finical support packages and partially lifted the ban on movement of carriage and equipment for harvesting, but the announcement packages shown to be not as much of useful because most of our machinery needs maintenances and repairing every year around the harvest season and the workshops continued in state of shutdown. It is imperative to keep an eye on the food situation in the country in the middle of this pandemic because keeping supply chains functioning well is crucial to food security. It INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES should be noted that 2 to 3 million deaths in the Bengal famine of 1943 were due to food supply disruptions-not a lack of food availability. There have been information's of certain anxiety and panic purchasing and interruptions in logistics. It is recommended that to safeguard food security and to reduce the impact of the lockdown, we need to review food policy and analyze how market forces will respond to the imbalanced supply and demand, storage facilities and capacity, price control of products.
... If positive, means that there is a substitution relationship between animal food. Conversely, if negative, means there is a complementary relationship between animal food [26] [27]. In Maluku, both in urban and rural areas, cross-price elasticity is mostly positive. ...
Protein deficiency has a permanent and long-term effect, which is a decrease in intelligence, abnormal growth, and stunting. Maluku is the province with the lowest protein consumption in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of price, income, and demographic factors on animal protein food demand, using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System approach. The research data used 2016 Susenas data of 4,811 households. The results showed that an increase in animal food prices by one percent decreased demand for eggs, chicken, beef, fresh fish and milk powder, respectively, by 0.452%, 2,024%, 4,382%, 2,507%, and 0.969%. The most elastic beef was followed by chicken, fresh fish, milk powder, and eggs with income elasticities of 3,928%, 2,278%, 1,752%, 1,456%, and 0.562%, respectively. All animal foods are luxury items, except eggs are normal goods. In urban areas, beef, fresh fish and milk power are complementary, whereas in rural areas all animal foods are substitutes. Moreover, the impacts of socio-demographic factors on the demand for animal products were found to be very low. To increase protein consumption, the Maluku government needs to maintain the stability of animal food prices, especially eggs. Price policies are more effective than income policies both in urban and rural areas
... To protect the daily wage labor, Government of Pakistan has announced food package and financial assistance of Rs. 12000/-for 12 million families per three months period (28,29). Studies revealed that average expenditure of a family ranged from Rs. 14000/-to Rs. 17000/-(84 -102 US$) per month (30). ...
This article is an attempt to analyze different phases of lockdown in Pakistan with the aim to know about its effectiveness against COVID-19 and seek affordable alternative. In the first phase Pakistan observed complete lockdown that was very effective, but due to its bad impacts on labor community it was not continued for a long time. In the second phase, the lockdown was relaxed to partial lockdown. Some increase in covid-19 cases was observed with some deaths and recovery. Therefore, the lockdown was relaxed further to smart lockdown. In this phase some shops and businesses were reopened with the idea to allow the daily wage labor to work. The decision was welcomed, but a big increase was observed in covide-19 cases along with increase in deaths and recoveries. Data revealed that people with the age of 20-34 years were infected the most, while death rate was high in old age. As labor community was affected the most during forced lockdown, therefore, was not an affordable option. To make the smart lockdown continue in effective manner, financial assistance of Rs. 12000/-was given to the labor community. It was concluded that the smart lockdown along with financial assistance, was effective to some extent, but can't be presented as preventive measure against COVID-19. It was recommended to keep the smart lockdown continue along with force-lockdown in vulnerable areas. Also arrange and manage quarantine and isolation facilities for the vulnerable and infected groups respectively till the arrival of proper treatment.
... Besides this, Rs. 3000/-was not enough to meet monthly expenditures. According to Haq et al 2008, monthly food expenses of an average household size of five members is ranged from Rs. 14000 to 17000 (18). ...
Pakistan, being as a neighbor country of China and Iran was vulnerable most to COVID-19 pandemic. During receiving Pakistani pilgrims from Iran, Pakistani government reacted toward the spread of COVID-19 after report of first COVID-19 case on 25th of February, 2020. Quarantine facilities were arranged with delay and were the main cause of epidemic in Pakistan.Out ofthe total COVID-19 cases 78 percent cases were linked with the visitors coning from Iran. Simultaneously, Pakistan announced closure of all education institutions with a partial lockdown across the country. This badly affected the labor community. Due to lack of record/ database, Pakistani government faced problem in supporting the labor community. The partial lockdown was effective to some extent and the epidemic was brought under control. To cope with such pandemic/epidemic situations in future,the various lessons learned
have been given as recommendations for the future.
... Besides this, Rs. 3000/-was not enough to meet monthly expenditures. According to Haq et al 2008, monthly food expenses of an average household size of five members is ranged from Rs. 14000 to 17000 (18). ...
Pakistan, being as a neighbor country of China and Iran was vulnerable most to COVID-19 pandemic. During receiving Pakistani pilgrims from Iran, Pakistani government reacted toward the spread of COVID-19 after report of first COVID-19 case on 25th of February, 2020. Quarantine facilities were arranged with delay and were the main cause of epidemic in Pakistan.Out of the total COVID-19 cases 78 percent cases were linked with the visitors coning from Iran. Simultaneously, Pakistan announced closure of all education institutions with a partial lockdown across the country. This badly affected the labor community. Due to lack of record/ database, Pakistani government faced
problem in supporting the labor community. The partial lockdown was effective to some extent and the epidemic was brought under control. To cope with such pandemic/ epidemic situations in future,the various lessons learned have been given as recriminations for the future.
... Studies revealed that average expenditure of a family ranged from Rs. 14000/-to Rs. 17000/-(84 -102 US$) per month (16). This financial assistance may not be helpful to keep a labor inside their houses for three months, but may be helpful to keep them inside for at least one moth for a successful lockdown and self-quarantine. ...
In this article is an attempt to analyze different phases of lockdown, its affordability and effectiveness. In comparison with other parts of the world, especially the neighboring countries, COVID-19 related deaths were very low in Pakistan. As there was change in the mode of lockdown from forced lockdown to partial and smart lockdown, therefore an ever increase was observed in deaths and recoveries from covid-19. People with the age of 20-34 years were infected the most, while death rate was high in old age. As labor community was affected the most during forced lockdown, therefore, was not affordable option. To make the smart lockdown continue and effective, financial assistance of Rs. 12000/- were distributed among the labor
community. It was concluded that the smart lockdown along with financial assistance, was effective against Covid-19. It was recommended keep the smart lockdown continue with proper arrangement of quarantine and isolation facilities for the vulnerable and infected groups respectively till the arrival of proper treatment.
... Deaton (1997) further highlights the important role food consumption plays in the determination of household welfare by revealing that food consumption often represents the largest portion of total household expenditure in developing countries, especially amongst low income countries like Cameroon. These poor households spend about three-quarters, or more of their total budget, on food (Haq et al., 2008). Thus, any slight variation in household spending patterns may affect household welfare and poverty status. ...
This study attempts to explain growth in household real food consumption expenditure in Cameroon between 2001 and 2007. Specifically, it assesses the relative importance of household real total expenditure in explaining household real food consumption expenditure; evaluates the direction of change of the marginal propensity to consume between the two periods, and investigates the role of access to endowments and returns to endowments in explaining growth in household real food consumption spending. To achieve these objectives, use is made of a micro-econometric analysis of household real food consumption functions, a Shapley-Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition of growth in household consumption spending and the 2001 and 2007 Cameroon household consumption surveys. Results show that the marginal propensity to consume declined significantly between 2001 and 2007; real total spending predominantly explains real food consumption spending and its growth; and returns to endowments overwhelmingly account for the negative growth in real food consumption spending. These results show that well-being marginally improved between 2001 and 2007. These findings are important and have implications for household buffering food crisis in rural household and developing mechanisms to fight against issues related to food insecurity in Cameroon.
... The authors came to this conclusion after estimating the relationship between several measures of household wellbeing and food prices using province-level fixed effects. Haq, Nazli and Meilke (2008) who used the linear approximation of the almost-ideal demand system to simulate welfare changes in Pakistan found that the unexpected food price changes resulting from the food crisis severely affected urban households where poverty doubled. ...
Given the global food price spike experienced in 2007/8, the core question of this
research is, ‘what was the impact of the rising food prices on household welfare in
Zambia’? Taking an empirical approach and using micro-economic methods, four
welfare outcomes are assessed: consumption, equality of income distribution,
poverty and nutrition. The 2006 and 2010 cross-section household surveys - Living
Conditions Monitoring Surveys (LCMS) - are primarily used to answer the question.
The thesis first assesses the changes in consumption patterns across time,
geographical locations and quintiles. The short-term distribution of income from the
rise in prices is then analysed using non-parametric methods to show the likely
winners and losers from the price spike and the subsequent impact on poverty. These
results are supplemented by a supply response as an attempt to understand longerterm poverty effects. The final empirical exercise focuses on nutrition outcomes.
The thesis confirms the hypothesis that on average, urban households may suffer a
welfare loss but rural households may gain. In the case of maize grain, the results
suggest that the highest gain may accrue to rural households clustered around the
poverty line. Furthermore, the findings suggest that, while overall poverty may
increase in the short-run, the long-run impacts of rising food prices (once supply
response are accounted for) may lead to a marginal decline in poverty. Finally, we
observe that the slight increase in income, from selling maize, among some rural
households may not necessarily lead to an improvement in nutrition outcomes. In
particular, while rural households exhibit a small net rise in income from an increase
in maize prices, the impact on stunting levels among children below five years
appears to be regressive in both urban and rural areas. The overall results of this
research strengthen the case for contextual impact analysis of covariate shocks and
also highlight the policy challenges arising from such conflicting results.
... However, to bring domestic price at par with the world wheat price the government increased wheat price. Similar results were also reported by [12][13][14][15]. ...
... In their study on Indonesia, Ravallion and Van de Walle (1991) found that the urban cost of food staples is considerably higher than the rural one. Haq et al. (2008) conducted an estimation exercise for Pakistan that studied the impact of rising food prices on poverty in rural and urban areas. Once again, significant differences between rural and urban contexts were identified. ...
The relation between urban agglomeration and final food consumer prices is controversial. Pressure over the land in large cities results in higher prices in general and for feeding products in particular. On the other hand, large cities provide greater competition among firm, which might drop prices down. Previous literature studying this issue was mainly focused on developing countries, finding empirical evidence of higher food costs in large urban concentrations. Such evidence is missing, however, for developed countries. In this paper, we are interested in measuring the differences in the cost of food products among several city sizes for the case of Spain. A comparison that applies a standard price index would not be appropriate because it would ignore consumer substitution capacity. To make a proper comparison, a “true” food products costs index should be obtained. We have estimated a demand system for food products consumed by Spanish households to measure their costs in cities of different sizes across Spain and over the recent period 2008–2015. The data come from the Spanish Household Budget Survey (HBS). We found that the cost of attaining a given level of utility in food consumption is greater in the largest cities. Additionally, as an example of the political implications of this analysis, we analyze the effect over the quality of life by adjusting the poverty lines with our index and observe that the poverty rates of the largest urban areas in a developed country, such as Spain, might be substantially underestimated if differences in cost of living are not taken into account.
... As food expenditure constitutes between 40 to 60 percent of the income of the poor in developing countries (Hallegatte, Fay, Bangalore, Kane, & Bonzanigo, 2016;Lee et al., 2013), an increase in food prices may not only affect income poverty (Ul Haq et al., 2008), but it may affect the number of food insecure (Sarris & Rapsomanikis, 2009) which, in turn, could influence the incidence of child labor. However, most developing countries are also characterized by a high fraction of agricultural households who could potentially, in their role as producers of food commodities, benefit from an increase in food prices (World Bank, 2007;Ivanic & Martin, 2008;Polaski, 2008). ...
Most people in developing countries spend up to 60 per cent of their income on food, even though the majority of them are farmers. Hence, a change in food prices affects both their revenue as well as expenditure, and it may thereby affect their labour market decisions. Using the Uganda National Panel Survey and monthly regional food prices, this paper examines the effect of changes in food prices on child labour. The empirical evidence shows that an increase in food prices is linked to an increase in the probability and the intensity of child labour. We find the effect of food price increases to be smaller among landowning households, which is consistent with the view that landowning households can better compensate for price shocks. The empirical results suggest that periodic shocks in food prices may have longer lasting effects on economic development in developing countries through the channel of child labour.
... Moreover, exporting cotton, our earning comprises as much as 60 percent. Unrefined material provided to 1200 ginning factories, 458 textile mills and 5000 oil expellers (Nazli and Meilke, 2008;Agha, 1994). ...
Cotton is an important fibrous crop and called as white gold of Pakistan. Like many other crops, various chewing and sucking insect pests attack on different Bt and non-Bt cotton genotypes. Furthermore, metrological factors (especially temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) also play vital role in the population dynamics of sucking insect pest complex like jassid, aphid, thrips and mites. The present study was conducted on six cotton cultivars (3 Bt and 3 non-Bt) to monitor the population dynamics of thrips in relation to abiotic climatic factors. Interaction effect was found significant in Bt varieties but not for non-Bt cultivars. Average thrips population per leaf on various Bt and non-Bt varieties showed that the CIM-557 along with BT-703 had the highest number of thrips density while Bt variety FH-113 had the lowest thrips population per leaf. Similarly, in relation to thermal effect, high thrips population was recorded at 29-35°C but population declined at 40°C. Findings are helpful for appropriate management of sucking complex in case of cotton crop.
... 6 Poverty gap and severity of poverty has increased in rural as well as urban areas thus concluding that poverty in Pakistan is a major issue. 7 The current study high-lights the impact of financial burden in maternal health care services in rural areas of Pakistan and emphasizes the need of effective health reforms to ensure timely, safe and free obstetric facilities for the poor. ...
Background: With Pakistan failing to achieve Millennium Development Goals we have now entered into a new era of Sustainable Development Goals. Decreasing child mortality, improving maternal health and increasing the proportion of births by trained birth attendants, are the areas with unmet goals. As 29.5% of population of Pakistan is below the poverty line, expenditure on maternal health care services is of great importance as it determines the utilization of health care services to a large extent.
Objective: To assess maternal health care expenditure and its sociodemographic predictors in rural Khanewal, Punjab, Pakistan.
Methodology: In this cross sectional study average cost on delivery (both SVD and Cesarean section) was assessed in both public and private sector of rural
Khanewal. Total 257 women who had delivered in the last one year were included.
Results: Results revealed that 69.3% of mothers were illiterate.56.8% sought antenatal care in public health unit and 43.2% in a private health care facility. 49.8% delivered in a public health unit and 50.2% in private health care facility. Total expense on antenatal care and delivery was found to be <4,000PKR (<$38.16) in 55.6% (reportedly in a public health care unit) and was >16,000PKR (>$152.65) in 23.3% (reportedly in a private health care facility). A significant difference was found between expense, in public vs private sector and SVD vs. C-section.
Conclusion: This study revealed that there is high financial cost on maternal health services in both public and private sector of rural Khanewal. Although in private sector the cost is more as compared to public sector but still it is high keeping the notion of free health care services in Pakistan by the government. There-fore it is suggested to improve the quality of health care in public sector and if possible to provide free of cost services to mothers during delivery.
... In urban region, the expenditures elasticities for vegetables (0.900), sugar (0.948), wheat and wheat flour (0.750), pulses (0.839), oil and fats (0.832) and tea and coffee (0.997) reflects that these food items are considered necessities while milk (1.134), meat (1.203), fruits (1.143), other cereals (1.657), backed products (1.248) and other food (1.190) are the most responsive to changes in prices and therefore regarded as luxuries. These results are consistent with the findings of Haq et al. (2008), Malik et al. (2014) and Ahmad et al. (2015). ...
... This paper attempts to bridge the knowledge gap in urban food demand in Ghana. Several studies cite urban households as more vulnerable to food price increases (Ackah & Appleton, 2007;Haq et al.,2008;Sadoulet & 1 Urban area is defined to be a settlement of at least 5000 inhabitants. ...
The 21 st Century has been marked by increased volatility in food prices, with global price spikes in 2007-08, 2010-11, and again in 2021-22. The impact of food inflation on the risk of child undernutrition is not well understood, however. This study explores the potential impacts of food inflation on wasting and stunting among 1.27 million pre-school children from 44 developing countries. On average, a 5 percent increase in the real price of food increases the risk of wasting by 9 percent and severe wasting by 14 percent. These risks apply to young infants, suggesting a prenatal pathway, as well as to older children who typically experience a deterioration in diet quality in the wake of food inflation. Male children and children from poor and rural landless households are more severely impacted. Food inflation during pregnancy and the first year after birth also increases the risk of stunting for children 2-5 years of age. This evidence provides a strong rationale for interventions to prevent food inflation and mitigate its impacts on vulnerable children and their mothers.
en A key feature of recent poverty measurement in many developing countries is the transition from conventional (money metric) approaches to multi-dimensional approaches. This change in the poverty measurement raises the question of whether the same poverty trends are apparent under the conventional and the multidimensional approaches. To answer this question I used six household-level surveys for Pakistan fielded between 2004 and 2015. The analysis considers trends at the national, provincial, and district level with a particular focus on the variability in trends due to distribution sensitivity and insensitivity in poverty measures. The district-level trend analysis leads to the results that the multidimensional measures show a smoother fall in national poverty rates while the conventional measures show rising poverty up until 2008 and then a sharper fall. Almost two-thirds of all districts show opposite trends in poverty, if conventional rather than multidimensional measures are used, in at least two of the five inter-survey spells, irrespective of whether distribution-sensitivity is considered or not. Thus, apparent poverty trends are sensitive to the measurement approach used. Hence, when measurement methods evolve, policy analysts should be cautious in the conclusions they draw from poverty estimates.
抽象的
zh 许多发展中国家最近衡量贫困的一个关键特征是从传统（货币度量）方法向多维方法的转变。贫困衡量的这种变化提出了一个问题，即在传统方法和多维方法下，相同的贫困趋势是否明显。为了回答这个问题，我使用了 2004 年至 2015 年间针对巴基斯坦进行的六次家庭层面的调查。该分析考虑了国家、省和地区层面的趋势，特别关注由于分布敏感性和贫困衡量不敏感导致的趋势变化。区级趋势分析得出的结果是，多维指标显示全国贫困率下降较为平稳，而常规指标显示截至 2008 年贫困率上升，然后下降较快。如果使用传统而非多维衡量标准，则几乎三分之二的地区在贫困方面表现出相反的趋势，无论是否考虑分布敏感性，至少在五个跨调查期中的两个。因此，明显的贫困趋势对所使用的衡量方法很敏感。因此，当衡量方法发生变化时，政策分析人员在从贫困估计中得出的结论时应该谨慎。
Purpose of the study: The twenty-first century has witnessed numerous impacts of the novel Corona Virus Disease-2019 (Covid-19) pandemic in different walks of life across the globe. The present study was designed to get a societal response regarding the multifaceted impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the lives of the populace of the study locale. Methodology: The researchers selected a qualitative research approach for gaining in-depth insights on the issue at hand, wherein the data was collected from the potential participants through purposive sampling. The In-depth Interviews were conducted in district Swat which is one of the most affected districts from Covid-19. The In-depth Interview was used as a research instrument. The data was analyzed through thematic analysis. Main Findings: The study findings revealed that human lives are severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The routine life cycle was badly affected, and people were confined to their houses. Like other parts of the world, different sectors like education, health, rituals, social interaction, travel, and tourism are desperately affected. Resultantly, it drastically raised the socio-cultural and economic (especially unemployment) unrest situation in the region. Apart from these consequences, due to the Pandemic scenario, various socio-cultural rituals, events, and activities were at a halt due to the imposition of social distancing measures. Applications of this study: The findings can be utilized/generalized in the normal course of life keeping in view the multidimensional impacts of the Covid-19 in the region. This study could be utilized for future research studies on the same issue. Novelty/Originality of this study: Besides, the study has immense significance, such studies are novel in the region with such a distinct perspective that covers various aspects of the impacts of Covid-19 using a qualitative research approach.
The 2011 National Nutrition Survey of Pakistan revealed that 51% of the country’s population was consuming less than 2,100 calories a day. In the backdrop of rising food insecurity, hunger, and malnutrition in Pakistan, this study aims to measure the effects of indirect taxation on health outcomes of children (<5 years). More specifically, the impact of the incidence of General Sales Tax (GST) in the province of Punjab has been estimated on a child’s height and weight. The proponents of the uniform GST argue that the tax would not affect children because most food items consumed by children are exempted from the GST. However, the opponents believe that households, especially those belonging to the lower-income group, would reallocate resources away from children in the face of higher GST. To study these effects, we utilized three different waves (2007–08, 2011 & 2014) of Multiple Indicators Cluster Surveys (MICS). The results show that the tax incidence, and not the GST rate, has a significantly negative impact on children’s height-for-age Z-score (HAZ). No effect was found on the weight-for-age-z-score (WAZ). These results are robust to different specifications and exhibit considerable heterogeneity across different income groups. These findings suggest that the exemption of certain food items for children from the GST may not eliminate the negative effects of this tax on a child’s health. Thus, our study raises concerns about the long term welfare consequences of GST.
Pakistan, being as a neighbor country of China and Iran was vulnerable most to COVID-19 pandemic. During receiving Pakistani pilgrims from Iran, Pakistani government reacted toward spread of COVID-19 after report of 1st case of COVID-19 on 25th of February, 2020. Quarantine facilities were arranged with delay and were the main cause of epidemic in Pakistan. Out of the total COVID-19 cases 78 percent cases were reported from visitors coning from Iran. Simultaneously, Pakistan announced closure of all education institutions with a partial lockdown across the country. This badly affected the labor community. Due to lack of record/ database, Pakistani government faced problem in supporting the labor community. The lockdown was effective to some extent and the epidemic was brought under control. To cope with such pandemic/ epidemic situations in future, it was recommended to have modern quarantine facility at the exit and entrance points on border.
Organizational learning is viewed as a source of gaining a sustained competitive
advantage for organizations. However, past research suggests that organizations do not
necessarily learn constructive and ethical practices and behaviors; instead, organizational
members can indulge in unethical and destructive behaviors such as bribery, nepotism and
the manipulation of organizational resources for personal gains that impede organizational
learning. Although literature has highlighted the importance of unlearning for enhancing
organizational learning and gaining sustained competitive advantage, there is a paucity of
work on how organizations unlearn destructive behaviors and practices. To fill this research
void, this study building mainly on social learning theory, using a single case study as
research methodology and collecting data using 40 semi-structured interviews, brought to
the fore how two key aspects of ethical leadership – accountability and honesty – facilitate
the unlearning of destructive and inappropriate behaviors and practices. The study carries
important implications for the policymakers and managers concerned with the unlearning
of destructive behaviors and obsolete practices.
The dissertation is concerned with the relation between formal and informal risk management in developing and emerging countries in the context of rainfall and food price variability. The dissertation contains three research projects. In order to systematize the literature on welfare effects of food price volatility and rainfall risks and the related coping strategies, a systematic review on the quantification of these two risk types has been performed. Many studies in the recent past have been published to quantify poverty effects of materialized risk such as drought events or the consequence of the 2008-09 food price crises in emerging and least developed countries. As agrarian economies in least developed countries heavily depend on the correct onset and amount of rainfall quantities, rainfall failures are likely to have adverse consequences for household income and its volatility. In addition, agrarian households in least developed countries are mostly net food consumers and thus highly dependent on the realization of food prices. The review systematizes the empirical evidence on adverse income effects of drought events and food price increases as well as it summarizes the risk management and coping strategies directly linked to these two shock types. A particular emphasis will be given to the stabilizing power of labor markets and adaptation through consumption responses. The second paper is concerned with informal risk management strategies taken out by agricultural households, in particular with the instrument of labor time allocation. Subsistence farmers in low income countries are confronted with multiple risks. In reaction to them, farm households have developed strategies to cope with yield risks to self-insure against these income shocks. Recent developments in global food markets have increased food price volatility, which, in particular, puts low-income households at risk. When small-scale farmers allocate their labor time over different income generating activities, they face the risk of uncertain purchasing power of income in the presence of food price variability. Thus, the paper analyzes the labor time allocation decision between self-employment and wage labor, taking into account the uncertain purchasing power of wages resulting from food price volatility and the farm production risk induced by rainfall variability. Using a panel structured household data set containing consumer-producer households in rural India, the labor time allocation decision between farming and labor market participation will be analyzed and the effect of production and food price uncertainty on labor time allocation will be estimated. The analysis reveals counterintuitive time allocation effects of risk. The third project is concerned with formal insurance demand by farm households and the interrelatedness between formal and informal risk provision. For this purpose, a data set for a weather index insurance demand product has been analyzed. Index based microinsurance as a tool to insure the income of agriculturally active households has triggered extensive discussions in the literature. Despite the convincing theoretical argumentation, the demand for these products stays behind expectations. Several studies revealed effects impacting the demand for index insurance, such as liquidity constraints, basis risk, lack of understanding and trust in insurers and products alike. This paper takes a different perspective and hypothesizes that low demand is due to heterogeneous risk exposure towards weather variability among potential insured resulting from informal risk management. The paper tests the impact of income heterogeneity as a measure of risk exposure on insurance demand and finds that risk exposure negatively affects insurance demand. In order to increase demand, it is concluded that product design should emphasize more the importance of income risk composition and exposure of potentially insured. The dissertation concludes with a critical discussion of how to reconcile formal and informal risk management practices and gives policy implications of how to innovate existing formal insurance products to increase demand.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the welfare cost resulted from an increase in food prices in the three most populous countries of south Asia (Pakistan, India and Bangladesh).
Design/methodology/approach
The effect of rising food prices on consumer welfare is analyzed by using the compensating variation technique. The measurement of the total consumer welfare effect requires the estimation of price elasticities which are calculated by using linear approximation version of the almost ideal demand system.
Findings
The results indicate that cereals (wheat, rice) are relatively price inelastic. However, protein-rich food items like chicken and mutton are relatively more income elastic where consumer welfare declines in all countries mainly for cereals and milk, as these food items are relatively less elastic to price fluctuations.
Social implications
Pakistan, India and Bangladesh represent together about 37 percent of the total world undernourished population. This study suggests that government should target the most vulnerable consumers (low-income group) to improve the income level in these countries.
Originality/value
It is the first effort to estimate and compare that how food inflation affects the consumer welfare in the most populated countries of South Asia. This type of study is also important for the policy planners to overcome the welfare cost under different setting of price and income so it is an effort toward this direction.
In this chapter, we present evidence on household coping strategies from a nationally representative household survey collected in Afghanistan before and during the 2007/2008 food price crisis. We looked at changes in various dimensions of food security, including calorie, dietary diversity, and nutrient intake. And we look at the purchase of food on credit, the sale of productive assets, school enrollment, and migration. We found strong evidence that the wheat flour price increases affected the well-being of Afghan households, who had to reduce both their food and nonfood expenditures. The reductions in the value of food consumed were reflected in the reductions in the quantity and quality of food consumed, including reduced nutrient intake. Households reduced their nonfood expenditures across several categories, including healthcare, clothing, grooming, communication, transportation, cigarettes and tobacco, and culture. And households purchased food on credit more frequently. We failed to find changes in educational expenditure or school enrollment, the sale of productive assets, or migration. We used the unconditional quantile regression (UQR) estimator to identify how prices affected households located at specific points on the unconditional distributions (such as the 20th or 80th quantiles) of the food security indicators. The most vulnerable households, those at the bottom of the calorie distribution, cannot afford to make substantial cuts to their caloric intake since they are close to or below the minimum daily energy requirements; accordingly, we found no statistically significant decline in their caloric intake. Households at the bottom of the dietary diversity distribution—often very poor households—experience very large declines in dietary diversity as a result of the wheat flour price increases (although even households at the top of the distribution also experience substantial declines).
This paper examines inequality and welfare in food consumption expenditure in Pakistan. The indices are derived on the basis of Sen's welfare function by employing HIES, 2005-06. The empirical results show that inequality and welfare varied widely in urban and rural areas. It can be seen that the concentration index of non essential/luxury food components are unevenly distributed over the total expenditure in favour of rich families. The price elasticity of welfare indicates that rising prices of food components have negative effect on the aggregate welfare. The present analysis provides a basis for determining the magnitude of inequality and welfare that can help in designing appropriate policies.
The recent spike in global food prices and the short-sighted policy responses that accentuate volatility in prices threaten to push large numbers of people back below the poverty line—including many millions in developing Asia. Structural forces augmented by adverse cyclical events have put food prices on an upward trajectory that will not end soon. Unless trade is kept open and relative prices are allowed to reflect market scarcity, severe consequences will emerge. In the immediate future, carefully targeted assistance to the poor will be essential—both in terms of food and inputs necessary to increase food production in the coming crop season. A reevaluation of investment priorities and feasibility of agricultural projects must be undertaken in light of these price developments, accompanied by stronger efforts to boost agricultural productivity growth in order to mitigate any longer-term rise in food prices.
A conceptual clarification of the sources and meaning of cross-sectional price variability is used to motivate a theoretical and econometric framework for the estimation of cross-sectional demand functions. Quality effects are distinguished from supply-related price variability to identify cross-sectional demand for disaggregated food commodities. An empirical application using data from the 1977-78 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey indicates that parameter differences resulting from a failure to adjust cross-sectional prices for quality effects are likely to be small for relatively homogenous, disaggregated food commodities. In demand analysis with cross-sectional, household budget data, it is usually assumed that prices are constant (Allen and Bowley, Prais and Houthakker, George and King). Given this assumption, Engel functions are es- timated where expenditure (or quantity) is re- gressed on income (or total expenditures), family size, and other demographic character- istics. The assumption that cross-sectional price effects are absent or are captured ade- quately by spatial and temporal dummy vari- ables has not been evaluated empirically. Whether cross-sectional price effects can be treated in this manner has implications for the specification of cross-sectional demand func- tions as well as the estimation of Engel func- tions. There is a considerable literature on es- timating price elasticities with cross-sectional data. Most of the applications utilize time- series/cross-sectional data. Annual (or quar- terly) household consumption surveys and
The finite sample properties of an asymptotically efficient technique (JASA, June, 1962) for estimating coefficients in certain generally encountered sets of regression equations are studied in this paper. In particular, exact first and second moments of the asymptotically efficient coefficient estimator are derived and compared with those of the usual least squares estimator. Further, the exact probability density function of the new estimator is derived and studied as a function of sample size. It is found that the approach to asymptotic normality is fairly rapid and that for a wide range of conditions an appreciable part of the asymptotic gain in efficiency is realized in samples of finite size.
This book is about the analysis of household survey data from developing countries and about how such data can be used to cast light on a range of policy issues. Much of the analysis works with household budget data, collected from income and expenditure surveys, though I shall occasionally address topics that require wider information. I shall use data from several different economies to illustrate the analysis, drawing examples of policy issues from economies as diverse as Cote d'Ivoire, India, Pakistan, South Africa, Taiwan (China), and Thailand. I shall be concerned with methodology as well as substance, and one of the aims of the book is to bring together the relevant statistical and econometric methods that are useful for building the bridge between data and policy.
The finite sample properties of an asymptotically efficient technique (JASA, June, 1962) for estimating coefficients in certain generally encountered sets of regression equations are studied in this paper. In particular, exact first and second moments of the asymptotically efficient coefficient estimator are derived and compared with those of the usual least squares estimator. Further, the exact probability density function of the new estimator is derived and studied as a function of sample size. It is found that the approach to asymptotic normality is fairly rapid and that for a wide range of conditions an appreciable part of the asymptotic gain in efficiency is realized in samples of finite size.
The two-step decision process for food-away-from-home (FAFH) consumption is empirically estimated using a generalization of the Heien and Wessells approach. Household information gathered by the National Panel Diary Group is used for the analysis. Marginal effects are corrected by untangling the respective variable impacts on the inverse Mills ratio. Expenditure and participation probability elasticities are similar to previous studies. Income elasticities are about 0.20, suggesting that the FAFH commodity is a necessary good for U.S. society. Northeastern households are less likely to consume FAFH than other households, but their expenditures are higher on average. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.
The idea of duality has proved to be a powerful device in modern work on the economics of consumer behaviour. The authors have used duality to provide an integrated and accessible treatment of this subject. The book focuses on applications of the theory to welfare economics and econometric analysis. The book begins with four chapters that provide a self-contained presentation of the basic theory and its use in applied econometrics. These chapters also include elementary extensions of the theory to labour supply, durable goods, the consumption function, and rationing. The rest of the book is divided into three parts. In the first of these the authors discuss restrictions on choice and aggregation problems. The next part consists of chapters on consumer index numbers; household characteristics, demand, and household welfare comparisons; and social welfare and inequality. The last part extends the coverage of consumer behaviour to include the quality of goods and household production theory, labour supply and human capital theory, the consumption function and intertemporal choice, the demand for durable goods, and choice under uncertainty.
South Africa is emerging as a major player in the world agricultural products market. This study investigates aggregate food demand patterns in South Africa using a LA/AIDS modelling framework. Data from 1993 integrated national household survey are employed in the analysis. Empirical results show that demand for meat and fish, grains, dairy products, fruits, vegetables and other foods are generally price elastic. The expenditure elasticities imply that meat and fish and grains are luxury products, while dairy products, fruits, vegetables and other foods are necessities in the household diet. The results also indicate that, if income of households increases food expenditure on meat and fish and grains would increase while that on dairy products, fruits, vegetables and other foods would decrease. Race, age, and gender of household head, urbanisation and family size affect food demand in South Africa.
Ever since Richard Stone (1954) first estimated a system of demand equations derived explicitly from consumer theory, there has been a continuing search for alternative specifications and functional forms. Many models have been proposed, but perhaps the most important in current use, apart from the original linear expendi- ture system, are the Rotterdam model (see Henri Theil, 1965, 1976; Anton Barten) and the translog model (see Laurits Christensen, Dale Jorgenson, and Lawrence Lau; Jorgen- son and Lau). Both of these models have been extensively estimated and have, in addition, been used to test the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions of demand the- ory. In this paper, we propose and estimate a new model which is of comparable gener- ality to the Rotterdam and translog models but which has considerable advantages over both. Our model, which we call the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), gives an ar- bitrary first-order approximation to any de- mand system; it satisfies the axioms of choice exactly; it aggregates perfectly over consumers without invoking parallel linear Engel curves; it has a functional form which is consistent with known household-budget data; it is simple to estimate, largely avoid- ing the need for non-linear estimation; and it can be used to test the restrictions of homogeneity and symmetry through linear restrictions on fixed parameters. Although many of these desirable properties are possessed by one or other of the Rotterdam or translog models, neither possesses all of them simultaneously. In Section I of the paper, we discuss the theoretical specification of the AIDS and justify the claims in the previous paragraph. In Section II, the model is estimated on postwar British data and we use our results to test the homogeneity and symmetry re- strictions. Our results are consistent with earlier findings in that both sets of restric- tions are decisively rejected. We also find that imposition of homogeneity generates positive serial correlation in the errors of those equations which reject the restrictions most strongly; this suggests that the now standard rejection of homogeneity in de- mand analysis may be due to insufficient attention to the dynamic aspects of con- sumer behavior. Finally, in Section III, we offer a summary and conclusions. We be- lieve that the results of this paper suggest that the AIDS is to be recommended as a vehicle for testing, extending, and improving conventional demand analysis. This does not imply that the system, particularly in its simple static form, is to be regarded as a fully satisfactory explanation of consumers' behavior. Indeed, by proposing a demand system which is superior to its predecessors, we hope to be able to reveal more clearly the problems and potential solutions asso- ciated with the usual approach. I. Specification of the AIDS
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