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Growth after the Asian crisis: what remains of the East Asian model?
Abstract
This paper focuses on the prospects for sustained development in the four East Asian economies most adversely affected by the crises of 1997/98. These include all three second-tier South-East Asian newly industrializing countries (NICs) – Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand – as well as the Republic of Korea, the most adversely affected of the first-generation newly industrialized economies (NIEs). The first section critically examines the East Asian model presented by the World Bank’s “East Asian Miracle” (1993). The study emphasizes the variety of East Asian experiences. The three second-tier South-East Asian experiences are shown to be quite distinct from, and inferior to, those of the first-generation NIEs, especially the Republic of Korea and Taiwan Province of China. The circumstances leading to the onset of the East Asian crises of 1997/98 are then reviewed to assess whether and how the East Asian “models” may have contributed to the crises. Macroeconomic indicators in Malaysia and the three most crisis-affected economies – i.e. Indonesia, the Republic of Korea and Thailand – are reviewed to establish that, despite some misdemeanours, the crises cannot be attributed to macroeconomic profligacy. After reviewing the causes of these crises, the role of international financial liberalization and the reversal of capital inflows are emphasized. Nevertheless, the trend towards further financial liberalization continues. Malaysia is shown to have been less exposed as a result of restrictions on foreign borrowings as well as stricter bank regulations, but more vulnerable owing to the greater role of capital markets compared to the other three economies in the region. The role of the IMF and financial market expectations in exacerbating the crises is also considered. The emerging discussion begins by asserting that economic recovery in East Asia since 1999 – especially in Malaysia and the Republic of Korea – has been principally due to successful reflationary measures, both fiscal and monetary. The main institutional reforms currently claimed as urgent to protect the four affected economies from future crises and to return them to their previous high growth paths are critically assessed. It is argued that the emphasis by the IMF and the financial media on corporate governance reforms has been misguided and that such reforms are not really necessary for recovery. Instead of the Anglo-American-inspired reforms currently proposed, reforms should create new conditions for further “catching-up” throughout the region. Although the prospects for reform of the international financial system remain dim, a reform agenda in the interests of the South is outlined. Globalization, including international financial liberalization, has reduced the scope for selective interventions so crucial to the catching-up achieved during the East Asian miracle years. However, the process has been uneven and far from smooth, leaving considerable room for similar initiatives more appropriate to new circumstances. In any case, it is unlikely that globalization will ever succeed in fully transforming all other national economic systems along Anglo-American lines. The emerging hybrid systems have not really advanced late development efforts. There is an urgent need to understand better the full implications of globalization and liberalization in different circumstances so as to identify the remaining scope for national developmental initiatives.
... É possível, a partir de um balanço destes debates, caracterizar "um" modelo asiático? Assume-se aqui que é difícil sustentar a existência de um único modelo (Jomo, 2001, Chang, 2006. Todavia, é possível identificar elementos em comum nas trajetórias particulares de cada economia, bem como aspectos idiossincráticos e, para o período mais recente, novos determinantes regionais e globais que estão criando um ambiente econômico e institucional cada vez mais governado por uma dinâmica de regionalização (Park, 2006, Gill e Kharas, 2007, Unctad, 2007. ...
... Em outro extremo, de caráter mais liberal, Hong Kong e Cingapura priorizaram uma estratégia de especialização no setor de serviços, o que implicou uma abertura muito maior ao capital estrangeiro. Não se pretendia "consolidar a nação" através da industrialização e, sim, encontrar nichos de competitividade, considerando-se as suas limitações físicas e financeiras (Jomo, 2001e Chang, 2006. ...
... Portanto, a idéia de "um modelo de desenvolvimento asiático" subestima diferenças que são cruciais para entender a região (Jomo, 2001). A tradição do mainstream tendeu a tratar o "milagre asiático" como sendo o resultado esperado da eficiente execução de políticas econômicas corretas: a manutenção da estabilidade econômica e da abertura à economia internacional. ...
... English, Dutch, and US-American rule, the landlord class and the domestic bourgeoisie became less marginalized in Southeast Asia, therefore, there was less bureaucratic autonomy in those countries (Booth, 1999;Jomo, 2001). ...
... The expanding middle class increasingly demanded more social security and political liberalism (Lee, 1991;Evans, 1995;Dosch, 2008). Some members of societyin particular businessmendemanded the opening of capital markets for easier investment (Jomo, 2001;Zhang, 2003;Haggard, 2004) and consumption credit. Entrepreneurs expected a facilitation of financing from deregulation. ...
So far, various contributions have failed to explain Asia's fat foreign currency reserve accumulation. In this paper, I analyze reserve holding decisions in a wider social, political, and economic context. Using Weber's heuristic of ideas and interests as determinants of actions, I show that Asian countries' reserve accumulation is caused by a paradigm shift. In Asia's former Development State paradigm, accumulation of huge reserves was not of central importance because of closed and heavily regulated financial markets. After the Development State paradigm had collapsed in the 1980s, a new paradigm was built around the ideas of liberalism, the unconditional avoidance of any further financial crisis, and high employment. In order to harmonize the requests of liberal politics and open financial markets in addition to 'full' employment driven by export-led growth and the avoidance of further crises, hoarding reserves was a suitable strategy. This study documents how the changing paradigm has caused East and Southeast fast foreign currency reserve accumulation. The study analyses foreign currency reserve accumulation decisions in a wider social, political, and economic context.
... Después de la crisis fi nanciera de 1997 y 1998, 12 creció en la región la conciencia de que es 10. Véase Alesina et al. (2002) 1993; Jomo, 2001; Unescap, 2004). 13. ...
... La construcción de vínculos formales (reglas e instituciones) e informales (redes de personas que, por trabajar de forma conjunta en el proceso de integración , crearían lazos de confi anza mutua) no sería factible en el corto y medio plazo, en el caso asiático (Eichengreen 2004b; Henning 2002). Por otro lado, algunos analistas, aún reconociendo tales difi cultades, sugieren que el impacto de la crisis fi nanciera funcionó como un elemento catalizador de fuerzas políticas, lo que llevó a la conformación de innovación en la arquitectura institucional regional (Jomo 2001; Park 2002; Unescap 2002 Unescap , 2004). Es importante señalar que las cumbres anuales de los ministros de fi nanzas de los países del ASEAN+3 han renovado el compromiso de fortalecer la cooperación fi nanciera regional, especialmente de las iniciativas que buscan profundizar la integración de los mercados de capitales regionales (ADB 2006). ...
Starting off with the recent discussion on economic integration in two peripheral regions, Asia and South America, this article evaluates whether conditions of economic convergence in the scope of the denominated groups ASEAN+3 and MERCOSUR exist, which could lead to a greater monetary and financial integration in both regions. On one hand, the historical and institutional aspects of the construction of regional integration agreements are analyzed, highlighting the economic and political elements that are helping or impeding a better economic-financial convergence between the member countries of the two regional blocks. While, on the other hand, utilizing the analytic referent of the theory of optimal monetary areas, this article estimates whether both regions could obtain advantages upon abandoning their macroeconomic management autonomy, especially in what one refers to as the monetary and exchange policy, in exchange for an internationally coordinated monetary system.
... There is a direct relationship between the volume of exports and FDI, exchange rate, real GDP [6][7][8][9], and economic growth [10]. Furthermore, exchange rate has a direct impact on the performance of exports [11]. ...
Agricultural foreign direct investment (AFDI) contributes to the long-term growth of developing countries. Sudan has rich agricultural resources with great potential for AFDI. However, so far, Sudan has not exploited this potential to attract investors from other countries, having less of a competitive advantage in agricultural production owing to local and international problems. In this study, we examined the effects of foreign investments of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries on agricultural exports in Sudan, in addition to other economic factors during 1990–2016 using the two-stage least squares (2SLS) model. The results showed that the investments of GCC countries in Sudan’s agricultural sector boosted agricultural exports. The exchange rate was found to be a key determinant factor of GCC countries deciding to invest in Sudan. We recommend that the Central Bank of Sudan encourage policies to stabilize the exchange rate to attract more agricultural investment from GCC countries.
... The most important works were edited by researchers associated with contemporary institutionalism and, in particular, with the new institutional economics (Fishlow et al. 1996;Dahlman and Sananikone1997;Katz 1998). Most frequently, changes that have occurred in the countries of South-East Asia (Lucas 1993;Krugman 1994;Lall 1994;Stiglitz and Yusuf (eds) 2001;Jomo 2001), Japan (Tsuru 1976;Katz 1998;Valdes, 2003); China (Fenby 2008) and Germany after the Second World War (Zweig 1980;Reichel 2002;) form the empirical basis for theoretical considerations. Examples of economic miracles in other countries, such as Chile (the 1970s), Ireland (the 1980s and the 1990s), and Turkey (in the twenty-first century), have also been described extensively, and fairly accurately. ...
This chapter presents definitions of economic miracles expressing the essence, features, and basis for further typology of intense economic growth. The main goal of this chapter is to introduce the reader into the subject matter as well as to lay foundations for further theoretical developments and real-life examples of economies that experienced the economic miracle. Furthermore, this chapter is a link between the other chapters presented in this book.
... A experiência de Hong Kong seria mais próxima ao comportamento imaginado pelo paradigma neoclássico, com uma menor seletividade nas políticas, posto que o aprofundamento na industrialização não se mostrou fundamental em sua dinâmica de modernização. Já países como Malásia e Tailândia, com maior ênfase, e Filipinas e Indonésia (Jomo, 2001(Jomo, , 2005 se utilizaram de estratégias mais próximas às verifi cadas em outras economias retardatárias, particularmente na América Latina e Leste Europeu, estruturando sua base produtiva industrial com forte presença de IDE (Tabela 2, em anexo). ...
... Sampai saat ini, meskipun sudah terdapat banyak literatur yang menganalisa dampak dari Krisis Keuangan Asia Timur 1997, sebagian besar penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif (contoh, lihatCorsetti et al, 1999;. Lloyd dan MacLaren, 2000;Jomo , 2001). Selain itu, karena terjadi baru-baru ini, studi yang meneliti konsekuensi dari Krisis Keuangan Global 2008 juga terbatas. ...
Sejalan dengan semakin terintegrasinya perekonomian di tengah eraglobalisasi, krisis keuangan yang terjadi pada suatu negara dapat dengan mudah menyebar ke negara-negara lain dan menjadi bencana keuangan global dalam kurun waktu yang singkat. Pada kejadian semacam ini, fundamental ekonomi yang kuat sangat penting untuk mempertahankan suatu negara dari efek krisis yang “menular”. Sebagai bukti, karena fundamental ekonomi yang rapuh dan kurangnya kredibilitas pemerintah, perekonomian Asia Timur dapat diserang dengan mudah oleh krisis pada tahun 1997 begitu kepercayaan pasarmemburuk. Namun demikian, Asia Timurini telah belajar banyak dari kejadian pada tahun 1997 tersebut sehingga dapat membuktikan ketahanannya dalam menghadapi krisis keuangan global yang melanda pada tahun 2008 dengan meningkatkan fundamental ekonominya serta kredibilitas para pembuat kebijakan. Makalah ini dimulai dengan teori tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan krisis keuangan. Selanjutnya, secara empiris menguji sejauh mana krisis keuangan pada tahun 1997 dan 2008 mempengaruhi perekonomian Asia Timur dengan menggunakan data panel ekonometri. Bukti menunjukkan bahwa, meskipun kedua krisis telah memberikan dampak buruk pada perekonomian Asia Timur, gelombang krisis 2008 relatif tidak lebih parah daripada krisis tahun 1997. Akhirnya, penelitian ini juga memberikan penjelasan lebih lanjut tentang bagaimana perekonomian Asia Timur telah berhasil meminimalkan dampak krisis global pada tahun 2008. Kata kunci: Krisis Keuangan Global; Ekonomi Asia Timur, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Pasar Finansial, Efek Acak dan Tetap JEL Classification: C330, E440, G010
... Further, it is also important to analyze how East Asian economies managed to minimize the impact of 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Until now,even though there are already vast amount of literature analyzing the impact of the 1997 East Asian Financial Crisis, most of these studies use the qualitative approach (for instrance, see Corsetti et al., 1999; Lloyd and MacLaren, 2000; Jomo, 2001). In addition, due to its recent occurrence, the study that examines the consequences of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis is also limited. ...
As economies become more integrated in the midst of globalization, financial crisis that occurs in one country can easily transmit to other countries, becoming global financial catastrophe in a short period of time. In such event, strong economic fundamentals are particularly important to defend a country from the contagious effect of the crisis. As evidence, due to the fragile economic fundamentals and lacking government credibility, East Asian economies were easily attacked by the crisis in 1997 once the sentiment deteriorated. Nevertheless, the region had learned its lessons in 1997 thereby proofing its resilience in facing the global financial crisis that struck in 2008 by improving its economic fundamentals as well as policymakers’ credibility. This paper starts with theories on economic growth and financial crisis. Further, it empirically examines to what extent the financial crises in 1997 and 2008 affect East Asian economies by using panel data econometrics. The evidence shows that, even though both crises have contributed adverse impacts on East Asian economies, the magnitude of the 2008 crisis was relatively less severe than that in 1997. Finally, this study also provides further discussions regarding how East Asian economies had successfully minimized the impact of the global crisis in 2008.
Keywords: Global Financial Crises; East Asian Economies; Economic Growth;Financial Market; Random and Fixed Effects
JEL Classification: C330, E440, G010
... On a souvent étudié ou envisagé les liens nord/sud de manière uni- voque.Gottschalk et al., 2007 ; Jomo, 2001) Ce rééquilibrage paraît nécessaire pour éviter de déstabiliser de façon excessive l'économie mondiale à cause de déséquilibres des balances des paiements qui s'aggravent (Prasad, 2009a ; Rodrik, 2009). De plus, un plan de relance centré sur le marché intérieur est une opportunité pour réorienter les investissements vers le centre du pays, réduire les inégalités villes/campagnes et accélérer le développement de la société de services et de haute technologie vers laquelle les autorités chinoises veulent tendre. ...
... On a souvent étudié ou envisagé les liens nord/sud de manière uni- voque.Gottschalk et al., 2007 ; Jomo, 2001) Ce rééquilibrage paraît nécessaire pour éviter de déstabiliser de façon excessive l'économie mondiale à cause de déséquilibres des balances des paiements qui s'aggravent (Prasad, 2009a ; Rodrik, 2009). De plus, un plan de relance centré sur le marché intérieur est une opportunité pour réorienter les investissements vers le centre du pays, réduire les inégalités villes/campagnes et accélérer le développement de la société de services et de haute technologie vers laquelle les autorités chinoises veulent tendre. ...
... Em um primeiro momento, a crise financeira de 1997-1998, pareceu colocar em xeque o "milagre sul-coreano" (Berg, 1999, Jomo, 2001. Conforme se observa na tabela 2, em 1998 o país passou por uma severa recessão, com a queda de 7% no produto. ...
... Interest rates were cut down in defiance of IMF prescriptions. The IMF's prescribed policies based on free market principles were reversed, preventing corporate failures and preserving valuable institutional structures which do not receive attention in neoclassical theory (Jomo, 2009). ...
Despite many failures of the invisible hand both empirically and theoretically, it continues to be vigorously asserted and widely believed. We document the failures and explain why it continues to be asserted despite these failures. See http://bit.do/azfiv for a video lecture
... Interest rates were cut down in defiance of IMF prescriptions. The IMF's prescribed policies based on free market principles were reversed, preventing corporate failures and preserving valuable institutional structures which do not receive attention in neoclassical theory (Jomo, 2009). ...
Despite many failures of the invisible hand both empirically and theoretically, it continues to be vigorously asserted and widely believed. We document the failures and explain why it continues to be asserted despite these failures.
... Based on South Korea's state-led industrialization experience, the hallmarks of the East Asian growth model can be summed up in the following (Wade and Veneroso 1998; Jomo 2001): ...
Capitalism is not the only form of economy. Alternative economies—people’s economies—exist in which human needs and relationships are more important than competition and profit.
Forms of solidarity economy built on the principles and values of cooperation, equality, self-determination and democracy, exist and are taking shape in many parts of the world. These forms include household economies, barter economies, collective economies including cooperatives, worker-controlled economies, subsistence market economies, community budgeting, participatory budgeting, community-based local currency exchange systems, and ethical trading, among
others. Labor organizations have also provided spaces for building capacities in the struggle to defy capitalism.
The paper aims to contribute to the discourse on alternatives to capitalism. We go about by first examining recent works dealing with the issue of alternatives to capitalism (and neoliberalism). We define `alternative’ as an on-going multidimensional, non-deterministic process of people’s economic and political struggle beyond the capitalist logic, whether macro, meso or micro, to change their circumstances and simultaneously transform themselves in the process. The full development of human potential based on equality, solidarity and sustainability through democratic participatory processes is at the core of an alternative. Then, we look at how various forms of peoples’ solidarity economies and state-initiated democratic participatory schemes become spaces or provide spaces for the development of counter-consciousness (outside the capitalist `common sense’)
and concomitantly build capacities for the development of projects, initiatives and economies beyond the capitalist logic. By addressing changes in the mode of production and the labor process within their spaces, we argue that many of these organizations, projects and initiatives, are the ‘materialization’ or actual manifestation of non-capitalist alternatives.
... This transformation has not only increased vulnerability of the Korean economy to the external shocks but also reduced the scope for selective interventions so crucial to the catching-up achieved in the earlier period. Jomo (2001) suggests that, instead of implementing more Anglo-American-inspired reforms, Korea now needs to create new conditions for further "catching-up.". ...
The East Asian, particularly the South Korean, crisis has not been an anticipated one. The East Asian
experience in the 1970s and 1980s consisted of high growth based on export competitiveness and large
capital account surpluses. While performance was perhaps weakening in some of these economies
following their exposure to financial globalization, returns on assets were generally high. Yet, the
continuation of high levels of investment in the region was clearly facilitated by a heavy reliance on
external financing. Towards the mid-1990s, these economies became increasingly dependent on shortterm
foreign borrowing and portfolio flows, which, if suddenly withdrawn, as indeed it was
subsequently the case, would cause very real effects on the macro-economy. The massive reversal of
capital flows clearly did not fit the profile of the “traditional” balance of payments crisis in which
monetary and particularly fiscal policy generated unsustainable current account deficits. What was
quite paradoxical from a traditional IMF perspective is that in none of the most seriously affected East
Asian countries had budget deficits in of a problematic nature. In fact, a number of the countries in the
region even recorded budgetary surpluses. It was not surprising, therefore, that the East Asian crisis
has sparked a large body of literature seeking to explain causes of this unusual crisis, re-igniting
fundamental debates about the respective roles of governments and markets, at both the national and
international level, in the process.
Since the East Asian economies are generally characterized as blessed with an activist developmental
state, the role of the developmental state has became one of the contentious issues emerging from the
debates concerning the causes of the crisis. When the Korean crisis first broke out in November 1997,
many commentators regarded this as the proof of its famous state-led economic system has reached its
limit and what needed to cure the country’s economic ills was to ditch the inefficient and corrupt statedirected
economic system and create in its place a “genuine” market economy. The aim of the paper is
threefold. Firstly, it examines the extent to which the developmental state itself was the cause of the
crisis. Secondly, it attempts to provide a critical perspective on the role of the IMF in the post-crisis
period. Thirdly, attention is focused on the underlying dynamics of the strong recovery process in the
post-crisis era in South Korea, a pattern that makes a strong contrast with other “emerging markets.” A
central argument is that although the old-style of the developmental state in Korea has significantly
declined, it still possesses a substantial amount of state capacity. Indeed, the legacy of the
developmental state has been instrumental in South Korean comparatively successful adaptation to the
environment of financial globalization in the post-crisis era.
... First, to peg exchange rates at unrealistic levels was obviously unfortunate, but this mistake had little to do with the model as such (Stiglitz and 3. See Adams and Ichimura (1998), ADB (1999), Henke and Boxill (2000), and Jomo (2001). Yusuf 2001, 8-10). ...
... This applies to Mexico (with the exception of the automotive industry) and most of the Asian countries. Except for South Korea, these countries chose this type of specialization, without opting for an industrial policy that seeks to integrate, within the national economy, the delocalized segments of multinational firms of the industrialized countries (Jomo, 2001). 38 Consequently, the value added locally is very little. ...
The main characteristic of the financial crises of the nineties was that they resulted in severe external financial constraints. Today, the "balancing" of the inflows and outflows of the balance of payments is done by adjusting interest rates, the key variable of economic policies. The hike in interest rates raises the cost of borrowing considerably — weakening the position of the states vis-à-vis the Fed- eral State —, and adds to the budget deficit, which cannot be contained merely by reducing public expenditure. It also leads to a reduction in the investment projects of firms. The financial logic underlying the functioning of a "casino economy" pro- duces great instability in the economic activity, an acute social vulnerability, and the impossibility under this growth regime to obtain any signifi- cant reduction in the widespread poverty.
... La mayoría de los especialistas concuerda en que el cambio de rumbo en la política fiscal fue un factor importante para explicar la recuperación de las economías asiáticas (ver Jomo, 2001). Los fondos públicos fueron dirigidos a expandir el gasto en planes sociales y a recapitalizar las instituciones financieras. ...
... Ironically, the protagonists of the rent-seeking analysis who, initially, set out to challenge the autonomy of politics by constructing a social theory on the basic individualistic postulate of microeconomics (Barry 1987: 25), end up in search of a theory which would justify the necessity of an autonomous state to check the 'disruptive influence of distributional coalitions'. For others combining the jargon of the World Bank with that of the statistinstitutionalists, "embedded autonomy" turns out to be a key to understand what the conditions of good governance are (Jomo 2001;Teichman 2002). ...
The protracted saga of Turkey's quest for the European Union (EU) membership provides an interesting case for analysing the changing modalities of state-market and/or state-civil society relations. At the same time, it provides a highly illuminative case to articulate the ways in which the EU emerges as a key player which changes the rules and the structures of policy making for the member states as well as for others aspiring to be full members. More generally, there is a need to come to terms with the complex and multidimensional processes of transformation which may be labelled as the process of Europeanization, to borrow a trendy terminology from the institutionalist literature on European integration, as many new and prospective members of the EU are faced with the dual tasks of political and economic development and adjustment to a rapidly changing international environment. As succinctly put, Turkey's development path is being pivotally affected and supported by the EU accession course, giving this general process of modernisation and democratisation an important Europeanisation twist. (Tocci 2005, p.82)
... A construção de vínculos formais -regras e instituições -e informais -redes de pessoas que, por trabalharem de forma conjunta no processo de integração, estabeleceriam laços de confiança mútua -não seria factível no curto e médio prazo, no caso asiático (Eichengreen, 2002, Randall, 2002. Por outro lado, alguns analistas, mesmo reconhecendo tais dificuldades sugerem que o impacto da crise financeira foi importante para catalizar as forças políticas necessárias ao encaminhamento de elementos inovadores na arquitetura institucional regional (Park & Wang, 2000, Jomo, 2001, Park, 2002, Unescap, 2002. ...
... Chinese Taipei, Japan, and Korea) who focused on the development of domestic industries, starting from labour-intensive manufactures to subsequent migration into more technologically sophisticated activities. While the former development strategy has limited endogenous industrial and technological capacity building, and lack of suitable policies did not encourage the production and use of local content (Jomo, 2001), FDI has been the driver of export oriented growth. In these countries, foreign-owned firms exported up to 90% of their production as opposed to the typical local firm which exports on average less than 10% of its production (James and Ramstetter, 2005;Ramstetter 1999). ...
... The period from 1980s to early and mid-1990s, there was growing international recognition of the sustained rapid economic growth, structural change and industrialization in the East Asian region (Jomo, 2001). The 1990s was an interesting period for East Asia, since the decade started on a positive note, with most economies in the region registering high rates of economic growth (Yusuf, 2001). ...
This article succinctly summarizes the growth experience of the four East Asian tiger economies (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) and three Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) states (Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand). The crisis of 1997–98 had come to pass and the economies have returned to growth but not at the same tempo as in the earlier times. Several of the economies have experienced significantly reduced levels of poverty and visible inequalities. The degree of income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient), however, stays more or less constant, with the level being especially low in economies that have taken steps to keep it low. A number of lessons and implications can be drawn from the experience of East Asia. Examples are the importance of an investor friendly economic climate, an efficient public sector; explicit advocacy of family limitation; ensuring the building up of infrastructure ahead of time; and minimising visible inequality and inequalities in opportunities.
... Instead, there appears to be a desertion from the conviction to change what was already considered an obsolete setup. Once the Asian Crisis ― and the subsequent crises, like Brazil and Russia in 1998, Turkey in 2000–2001, and Argentina in 2001–2002 ― was contained, the issue of reform was moved into the backstage and, in the end, evaporated from the discussions. Talks about the international architecture became passé, even misplaced with the supposed recoveries. ...
Debates that emphasize rapid economic recovery from major crises can extinguish progressive views that examine fundamental issues for sound economic management of present-day capitalist systems, such as: the determination of appropriate modes of cooperation including the procedures for intervention during crises, the introduction of structural changes that enable domestic economies to pursue appropriate industrial policies as well as erect institutions that could withstand external shocks, and, more importantly, the pursuit of fundamental reforms in the international economic architecture to allow for the management of cross-border flows of resources as well as coordinated adjustments to economic imbalances. There remains a lot to be done to make present-day capitalist systems reach a balance between domestic and global goals and thereby allow them to enlarge economic welfare without compromising national sovereignty.
... These differences have lent support to the claim that Malaysia was an innocent bystander that fell victim to regional contagion by being in the wrong part of the world at the wrong time. Such a view takes a benign view of portfolio investment inflows and does not recognize that such inflows are even more easily reversible and volatile than bank loan inflows (Jomo 2001a ). Contrary to the 1980 1992 1995 1992 1994 1995 1996 1992 1994 1995 1996 Indonesia nocent bystander hypothesis, Malaysia's experience actually suggests greater vulnerability because of its greater reliance on the capital market. ...
Various different and sometimes contradictory lessons have been drawn from the 1997-1998 East Asian crisis experiences. The ideological implications and political differences involved have complicated the possibility of drawing shared lessons from the crises. The seeming calm and increased growth in most developing countries in the period since 2001 have also undermined the possibility of far-reaching developmental reforms following the experience. Perhaps most importantly, the vested interests supporting existing international financial governance arrangements continue to impede the possibility of implementing lessons drawn from the experience. Such interests are generally supported by conventional wisdom and reinforced by the financial media.
... This is not much different from the Other contributors to the structural thesis include Summers (2000), Phelps (1999), IMF (1997) and US Council for Economic Advisers (1998Advisers ( ,1999. For an implicit or explicit critique of the structuralist thesis see Chang (2000), Sakakibara (2001), Stiglitz (1999), Wade and Veneroso (1998) Sachs and Radelet (1998), Singh and Weisse (1999) and Jomo (2001). 10 The Johnson et al (2000) study suggesting that the decline in stock market valuation of firms as well as currency depreciations in Asian crisis countries were directly related to poor corporate governance; broadly supports the conclusions of the structuralist theory. ...
This paper critically examines the Greenspan-Summers-IMF thesis concerning the Asian crisis, which suggested that the fundamental causes of the Asian crisis lay in the microeconomic behavior of economic agents in these societies--in the Asian way of doing business. The paper concentrates on corporate governance and competition in emerging markets and outlines the international significance of these issues in the context of the New International Financial Architecture and the Doha Development Agenda at the WTO. It reviews new analyses and fresh evidence on corporate governance, on corporate finance, and on competition in emerging and mature markets, to suggest that the basic thesis above is not valid and the consequent policy proposals are therefore deeply flawed.
This chapter highlights the facts about financial crises and their fundamental causes on specific incidents, including the 1929 Great Depression that lasted until the early-1940s, 1997 Asian Financial Crises, 1998 Russian Financial Crises, and the Liquidity Crises of 2008, and makes a comparison among them and their various outcomes. In doing so, the study specifies the cues that emerge in the financial system that may help governments predict upcoming financial crises through those early warning signals. This case study specifically analyses the Turkish Banking System that was restructured after the enormous financial crises in Turkey in 2001, which caused many Turkish banks to collapse. However, the precautions taken in the aftermath of the financial turmoil allowed them to survive the liquidity crises in 2008. The indicators of an upcoming crisis are examined, the lessons learned from this case are analyzed, and important recommendations to overcome banking crises are provided.
This chapter highlights the facts about financial crises and their fundamental causes on specific incidents, including the 1929 Great Depression that lasted until the early-1940s, 1997 Asian Financial Crises, 1998 Russian Financial Crises, and the Liquidity Crises of 2008, and makes a comparison among them and their various outcomes. In doing so, the study specifies the cues that emerge in the financial system that may help governments predict upcoming financial crises through those early warning signals. This case study specifically analyses the Turkish Banking System that was restructured after the enormous financial crises in Turkey in 2001, which caused many Turkish banks to collapse. However, the precautions taken in the aftermath of the financial turmoil allowed them to survive the liquidity crises in 2008. The indicators of an upcoming crisis are examined, the lessons learned from this case are analyzed, and important recommendations to overcome banking crises are provided.
Some of the larger countries in the developing world, flushed with recent market recognition as ‘emerging market economies’ (EMEs) and corresponding easily reversible capital inflows, have pursued policies seemingly oblivious of lessons from recent financial crises, both in 1997–98 and 2008–09. India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia are now among the more prominent ‘victims’ of events following growing uncertainty about the imminent end of the US Fed quantitative easing (QE)-induced emerging market bubbles of recent years.
Goh Keng Swee was one of Singapore’s leading economists, who served in the Ministries of Finance and Defence between 1959 and 1971. Addressing the opening of the International Labour Seminar, held in Singapore in 1965, he said:
I will be the last, being by training an economist myself, to deny the importance of economic factors but the process of development and modernization does not begin and end with economic factors alone. It is necessary that we pay regard to them, but it is not sufficient merely to do so.
O objetivo deste artigo é contribuir para o debate sobre os padrões de inserção externa de Ásia e América Latina, no período da globalização financeira. O texto parte dos contrastes de desempenho entre as duas regiões e das discussões sobre as suas causas, resume de forma breve a literatura sobre integração financeira e chega na sua principal contribuição: um conjunto de indicadores, construídos a partir de dados de ativos e passivos externos relativos ao período 1990-2004, para as mais importantes economias de cada uma das regiões. Quando analisadas de forma complementar, estas medidas corroboram a teoria que identifica na América Latina um perfil "financeirizado" e inferior de integração, em contraste com um padrão "produtivista" e superior característico das economias asiáticas.
This paper provides an overview of catch-up industrialization strategies in East Asia over the past few decades, articulating a theoretical-conceptual change from Akamatsu’s Flying Geese Model to a leapfrogging and pathcreating catching-up model. Within this intellectual context, this study explores the economic, political and institutional conditions for effective implementation of catch-up strategies (management of state-created learning rents) in South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. It proposes a new analytical grid that summarizes the current research on China’s catch-up industrialization, explicitly acknowledging China’s arguably unique multi-pronged mixed-mode model. The strategic models discussed in this paper may provide policy lessons for other developing economies in Asia aspiring to follow the path of technology upgrading.
The mainstream blames the global savings glut for causing the 2008 global financial crisis and proposes currency realignment to restore balance. However, this view fails to provide solid theoretical and empirical support to the claim that net inflows of foreign savings reduced U.S. long-term real interest rates and inflated asset prices. It also ignores the role of the global financial system in shaping the development strategy and macroeconomic imbalances in emerging Asian economies. Furthermore, forcing currency revaluation in China and other surplus countries may risk reducing global demand instead of shifting demand from the United States to surplus countries. The paper argues that an overhaul of the defunct global financial system lies at the root of global rebalancing; whereas in the short run, the United States should actively pursue demand-enhancing policies to strengthen global economic recovery.
financeira nos anos 90. * Versão resumida do texto preparado para o Encuentro de Estúdios Coreanos en América Latina, evento promovido pelo Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani (Universidad de Buenos Aires) e pela Korea Foundation. As opiniões aqui expressas são de inteira respon-sabilidade do autor, não refletindo, necessariamente, a visão das entidades promotoras desse evento. ** O autor agradece à bolsista de iniciação científica do Propesq-UFRGS Stefânia Grezzana Corrêa pelo trabalho de assistência de pesquisa. As citações em língua estran-geira foram traduzidas pelo autor.
In MERCOSUR, the monetary and financial integration currency is back to the negotiating agenda. It has created new mechanisms of cooperation, such as the Structural Convergence Fund (2006), the Bank of the South (2007) and the use of the Argentine peso and the Brazilian real as currency to compensate international transactions. In this new context, this article aims to assess the potential for greater monetary integration in MERCOSUR, considering the entry of Venezuela. We use a model VAR / VEC of symmetry, impulse-response analysis and decomposition of the variance to analyze the possibility of a monetary unification in the region. The results obtained reveal that responses to external shocks are asymmetric. As a consequence any attempt to creation of a single currency for the Mercosur would face
This paper argues that Indonesia's corporate governance system is unlikely to converge on the outsider model of corporate governance, at least in so far as this means an exact replication of this model. While the Indonesian government has introduced a range of corporate governance reforms aimed at bringing in key elements of the outsider model since the mid-1980s, and especially since the onset of the Asian crisis, there have been serious problems with the implementation and enforcement of these reforms. Underlying this outcome, it is argued, has been the structure of power and interest within Indonesia: the balance of power between the main coalitions of interest has been such that the political preconditions for the proper operation of the outsider model have not yet been established.
This paper highlights ten key features of the Developmental State (DS) growth model by contrasting economic and institutional trends between China (and East Asia more generally) and South Africa. In light of the recent (perhaps politically opportunistic) adoption of DS language to the South African policy discourse, the comparative analysis shows that the development trajectory underlying an East Asian DS deviates widely from the reality facing South Africa, and many other African countries today, in terms of emphasizing investments to 'catch-up' in productive and technological capacities in pursuit of dynamic comparative advantage on which rising real wages and living standards can be sustained. Rather than accept these status quo policy conditions, this paper proposes the strategic sequencing of key policies to bring South Africa into closer approximation of a DS configuration through four main areas: 1) over-exposure to speculative capital flows; 2) exchange rate and foreign reserves; 3) national savings rate; and 4) the allocation of capital. Although such a strategy is not without risk, leading emerging economies appear increasingly willing to experiment with DS-type policies and objectives deemed strategic to their long-term development prospects. As such, and amidst a global rebalancing of economic power from the developed to the developing world, South African policy-makers face a rare opportunity to regain policy- space, strengthen institutions and revamp the country's developmental model.
This paper attempts to theoretically understand the process of catching-up or falling behind particularly within the context of developing countries. The main aim of the paper consists in investigating the impact of domestic innovation, via its interaction with the learning capability, on the technology gap of an economy. More specifically, we seek to shed some light on why the tendency for poor countries to recede further into marginalisation appears pervasive. Our analysis is based on a simple model of technology gap elaborated by Verspagen (1991). We find that domestic innovation, a critical component for the development of an absorptive capacity, is a significant determinant of whether an economy catches-up or falls further behind.
After the devastating 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, Asian economies have tried to learn the lessons and orchestrate an effective development strategy in the midst of increasing global capital flows. In this paper, we attempt to identify the development strategy of Asian countries and the implications thereof for their economies and for the rest of the world. We argue that neither the "interdependency" theory nor the "decoupling" thesis adequately explains the current Asian development path. Instead, we argue that the dependency theory may shed light on the recent Asian development experience. By showing this, we highlight the fact that the ever growing financial power has, to a large degree, shaped the "real," productive side of the economy in Asian countries.
The spectacular, sustained economic growth experienced in several East Asian countries leads to the question what Europe can learn from the East Asian economic model. Three advantages of the East Asian model stand out: small social transfers, low taxation and free labor markets. The superiority of such policies is now widely accepted, and the question is how they can be emulated by Europe. Traditionally, the EU has taken a top-down approach to decision making and policy implementation, which is characteristic of the Lisbon Agenda, which has not made much progress. However, after the powers of the European Commission have been weakened in the last few years competition between national governments has spurred swift tax cuts and faster deregulation of labor markets. Bottom-up reforms arising from competition should be more readily accepted in the EU.
The purpose of this study is to analyse the level of good governance understanding implementation in Indonesia regional governments, identify impeding variables to good governance implementation, and evaluate the extent of international good governance standards alignment. The influence of economic and political transition, decentralisation and regional autonomy regime, bureaucracy culture, and political history is analysed to reflect the degree of good governance implementation and level of convergence to international good governance standards. The methodological approach involves a triangulation of in-depth interview, document analysis, and International Good Governance Standard comparison. Findings from the study reflect disparities in good governance understanding and implementation between Indonesia regional governments, nine main impeding variables to good governance implementation including bureaucratic culture and political history, and a positive response to convergence towards international good governance standard alignment. Findings also act as an in depth study and analysis of current Indonesia regional government situation, resulting in inputs and recommendations geared towards public policy development and good governance implementation guidelines.
Good governance refers to government agencies' conduct in implementing innovative policies and programmes to increase the quality of public service with the ultimate aim of increasing economic growth. This paper investigates good governance in Indonesia, with a focus on its implementation by regional / local government. Indonesia's good governance implementation has attracted further attention with it being the vocal point of its current president's, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, presidential vision and mission. Although much research has acknowledged good governance implementation at regional/local government level, the extent of implementation has varied, suggesting partial or incomplete implementation of good governance principles. This paper investigates impeding factors that do not support effective implementation of governance protocols. Analysis of findings found nine impediment variables to good governance and a large disparity gap in good governance understanding and implementation. Further investigation of findings allows a conclusion whereby the main challenge for good governance implementation is the existence of a double edged sword; lack of good governance legal instruments as well as a lack of bureaucratic reform.
In 1992 a blue-ribbon group of US economists led by Michael Porter concluded that the US stock market-based corporate model was misallocating resources and jeopardising US competitiveness. The faster growth of US economy since then and the supposed US lead in the spread of information technology has brought new legitimacy to the stock market and the corporate model, which is being hailed as the universal standard. Two main conclusions of the analysis presented here are: (a) there is no warrant for revising the blue-ribbon group's conclusion; and (b) even US corporations let alone developing country ones would be better off not having stock market valuation as a corporate goal.
Following the 1997-Asian crisis, a number of crisis-hit countries were committed to the rapid transformation of the corporate governance system to one that is modeled after the Anglo-American system. This, as the article argues, is based on a false premise, that what may have worked in the United States/United Kingdom can also be applied in East Asia. In this regard, the convergence at the firm level is seen to be more in “form” rather than in “substance”. This study assesses Singapore's corporate system in terms of its recognition of the merits of the Western model. It then details the corporate governance style of Temasek Holdings Limited (THL), a state- owned enterprise (SOE) in charge of monitoring government investments in companies. The choice of THL as a case study is based on the premise that THL operates very much like a private sector corporation. In addition, it has the ability to influence the standard of corporate governance of Singaporean SOEs. Because the SOEs are large players in their respective industries, the corporate governance of SOEs establish the standards and expectations for monitoring in non-SOEs. There are indications to suggest that the THL has taken into consideration certain aspects of corporate governance practices that may not necessarily be in line with those advocated by the Singapore government. The article argues that selective adaptation such as the style adopted in the THL more realistically portrays the corporate governance practices of East Asian corporations.
The first part of this paper examines the theoretical and empirical case for full capital account liberalization in developing countries (DCs) and finds it unconvincing. Indeed, analysis and evidence presented here point to a strong case against it. The second part considers the liberalization of only the long-term capital account, particularly FDI--a form of inflow favored by most economists. This paper argues that a multilateral agreement on investment, which denies countries the discretion to regulate FDI, will not be in the interests of DCs.
The Asian crisis differs from previous crises in key respects, and it may indicate fault lines in an increasingly integrated global economic and financial system. Unlike the typical case in which the IMF's assistance is requested, these crises did not result mainly from the monetization of fiscal imbalances and only in Thailand were there substantial external current account imbalances. Instead, they were rooted mainly in financial sector fragilities, stemming in part from weaknesses in governance in the corporate, financial, and government sectors, which made these economies increasingly vulnerable to changes in market sentiment, a deteriorating external situation, and contagion. This paper represents the first systematic review within the IMF of the policy response to the crisis, and possible lessons for future practice. Given the fact that events are still unfolding and programs are still in the process of revision, it will necessarily be selective in the questions it addresses and provisional in the answers it provides. The study covers the period through October 1998. The paper also takes a narrow approach in the countries examined: it focuses primarily on events in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand even though further useful lessons might be drawn by examining other countries in the region-notably Malaysia and the Philippines-in which many of the same forces were at work. Malaysia is excluded because it did not have an IMF-supported program, the Philippines (although it has had a program) because its recent history was quite different from the other crisis countries. Section II briefly reviews the origins of the Asian financial crisis in financial sector fragilities-notably the large short-term foreign currency debt of domestic financial institutions and corporations, together with inflated domestic asset prices and deteriorating loan quality-that made these economies vulnerable to a deteriorating external situation and market contagion, particularly given the volatility of short-term capital flows in international markets. The monetization of fiscal imbalances and evident exchange rate misalignments, prevalent in many countries that seek IMF support, played a lesser role, except in Thailand. The basic strategy of the programs formulated to address the crisis are discussed in Section III. Section IV addresses issues related to program financing and market reactions. Section V discusses the macroeconomic developments associated with the crisis, notably the deep recessions related to massive current account adjustments. Section VI discusses monetary policy, which sought to balance the goal of preventing a spiral of exchange rate depreciation and inflation against concerns that excessive monetary tightening could severely weaken economic activity. Fiscal policies are examined in Section VII. The initial programs, predicated on the assumption that the slowdown in growth would be modest, planned some fiscal adjustment to offset a weakening of fiscal positions, support external adjustment without an excessive squeeze on the private sector's financing, and make room for the costs of bank restructuring and social safety nets. If these deficit targets had been implemented under the macroeconomic conditions that emerged, they would have implied an excessively contractionary policy. Section VIII examines the strategy of structural reform in the programs, which were intended to address the structural weaknesses underlying the crisis and create the basis for a return to sustainable growth.
In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises have come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. The authors find that problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis--the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows, and accompanied by an overvalued currency.
This article examines the reasons behind the overoptimism of a large segment of the economics profession concerning the performance of East Asian economies, which was shattered by the financial crises of 1997–98. It also shows how the crisis placed into bold relief many institutional characteristics of these economies which negate many past attempts to characterize them as open and market-driven.
Sumario: Containing the risks to the world economy -- The crisis in emerging markets -- Turbulence in mature financial markets -- Implications for the world economy: revisions and risks to the projections -- Emerging market banking systems
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