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Homicide in São Paulo, Brazil: Assessing spatial-temporal and weather variations

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Abstract

Although São Paulo is one of the most dangerous cities in the world, very little is known about the variations of levels of crime in this Brazilian city over time. This article begins by investigating whether or not homicides are seasonal in São Paulo. Then, hypotheses based on the principles of routine activities theory are tested to evaluate the influence of weather and temporal variations on violent behaviour expressed as cases of homicides. Finally, the geography of space–time clusters of high homicide areas are assessed using Geographical Information System (GIS) and Kulldorff's scan test. The findings suggest that central and peripheral deprived areas show the highest number of killings over the year. Moreover, homicides take place when most people have time off: particularly during vacations (hot months of the year), evenings and weekends. Overall, the results show that temporal variables are far more powerful for explaining levels of homicide than weather covariates for the Brazilian case—a finding that lends weight to the suggested hypotheses derived from routine activity theory.

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... Other problems of data quality occur during the process of recording. Ceccato (2005) observes that this can be caused by the lack of information about the event from the victim (not knowing exactly where the offense took place) or by the police officer failing to record the event properly (failing to record the exact location). This may create extra cases in those particular locations, which may, if not identified in advance, contribute to "false hot spots." ...
... A good way to identify potential false hot spots is to check them for long-term patterns. If they are false, they may disappear over time, because the way the offense is reported may change, affecting the choice of "dumping site" (Ceccato, 2005). ...
... For a comprehensive review see Cohn (1990) and also Cohn (1993); Cohn and Rotton (2000); Harries, Stadler, and Zdorkwski (1984); Horrocks and Menclova (2011); McDowall and Curtis (2014). Ceccato (2005) evaluates the influence of weather and temporal variations on violent behavior in Sao Paulo, Brazil, one of few studies of this type on a tropical country. Overall, the results show that temporal variables (variations in people's routines) are far more powerful than weather covariates in explaining levels of homicide for the Brazilian case. ...
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... The results of studies examining seasonal variations also lack consistency. While some reported increased homicide rates during summer months (e.g., Ceccato, 2005;McDowall et al., 2012), others have not found support for a seasonal pattern (e.g., Abel, Strasburger, & Zeidenberg, 1985;Yan, 2000). McDowall and Curtis (2015) also identified a December spike in homicides that nearly reached the July peak. ...
... Weekends consistently see an increase in overall violent crimes (e.g., Harries, Stadler, & Zdorkowski, 1984;LeBeau & Corcoran, 1990), and homicide specifically (e.g., Abel et al., 1985;Ceccato, 2005). For example, Ceccato (2005) reported that over half the reported homicides in São Paulo occurred on weekends. ...
... Weekends consistently see an increase in overall violent crimes (e.g., Harries, Stadler, & Zdorkowski, 1984;LeBeau & Corcoran, 1990), and homicide specifically (e.g., Abel et al., 1985;Ceccato, 2005). For example, Ceccato (2005) reported that over half the reported homicides in São Paulo occurred on weekends. Violent crimes are also more frequent on major holidays (Cohn & Rotton, 2003). ...
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Although researchers have found support for a relationship between temperature and violence and evidence of temporal patterns in violent crime, research on homicide shows less consistent results and no research on mass murder has been conducted. We address this by examining predictive factors in multi-victim shootings (those with four or more victims, including injured), a more general crime category than mass murder, but one with likely similar predictive factors. We used data from the Gun Violence Archive to understand the relationship between multi-victim shootings and temperature as well as other extrinsic factors. To avoid the confound between season and temperature, we employed temperature anomaly (the difference between actual and expected temperature) as a predictor of daily shooting rate. Using a generalized linear model for the daily count of multi-victim shootings in the U.S., we found that these events are significantly more frequent on weekends, some major holidays, hotter seasons, and when the temperature is higher than usual. Like other crimes, rates of multi-victim shooting vary systematically.
... This study found a clear seasonal pattern of the homicide rate in Japan, with highest rates in hottest months (July to September) and lowest in coldest months (November to January) (Ishii 1927). The seasonal pattern in homicide was confirmed by later observations in other countries, and was thought to be mainly driven by seasonal fluctuation in temperature (Ceccato, 2005;Hipp et al., 2004;Simister and Cooper, 2005;Tiihonen et al., 1997). ...
... In addition, none of them have accounted for lagged effects of temperature within several days (Anderson and Anderson, 1984;Cheatwood, 1995;Gamble and Hess, 2012;Schutte and Breetzke, 2018;Talaei et al., 2014). Furthermore, most studies were based on single cities (Anderson and Anderson, 1984;Ceccato, 2005;Cheatwood, 1995;Gamble and Hess, 2012;Mares, 2013;Schutte and Breetzke, 2018;Talaei et al., 2014;Yan, 2000). The temperature-homicide association might vary by city, where population structure, social context and law systems are different. ...
... It is possible that different cities with different urban criminogenic environments and social contexts may show different temperature-homicide associations. Previous studies suggest that homicides within a city often show clear spatial pattern (e.g., have several hot spots) and temporal pattern (e.g., more likely to happen on summer, weekends, time around midnight) (Ceccato, 2005;Taylor, 2015). Therefore, whether the temperaturehomicide association varies by space and time also warrants further investigations. ...
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Background There has been an increasing interest in the association between ambient temperature and violence and crime, in the context of global warming. We aimed to evaluate the association between daily ambient temperature and intentional homicide—a proxy for overall inter-personal violence. Methods We collected daily weather and crime data from 9 large US cities (Chicago, Detroit, Fort Worth, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Louisville, New York, Tucson and Virginia Beach) from 2007 to 2017. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used. The associations were quantified by conditional logistic regression with distributed lag models, adjusting for relative humidity, precipitation and effects of public holidays. City-specific odds ratios (OR) were used to calculate the attributable fractions in each city. Results Based on 19,523 intentional homicide cases, we found a linear temperature-homicide association. Every 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.3–15.0%] and 8.8% (95% CI: 1.5–16.6%) increase in intentional homicide over lag 0–7 days in Chicago and New York, respectively. The association was not statistically significant in the other seven cities and seemed to be stronger for cases that happened during the hot season, at night (18:00–06:00) and on the street. During the study period, 8.7% (95%CI: 4.3–12.7%) and 7.1% (95% CI: 1.4–12.0%) intentional homicide cases could be attributed to temperatures above city-specific median temperatures, corresponding to 488 and 316 excess cases in Chicago and New York, respectively. Conclusions Our study suggests that the interpersonal violence might increase with temperature in some US cities. We also provide some insights into the mechanisms and targeted prevention strategies for heat-related violence.
... For example, Quetelet proposed what is known as the temperature-aggression hypothesis, which suggests that high temperatures increase discomfort, which increases aggression [6]. There is also the general aggression model (GAM), which proposes that weather variables, especially temperature, can lead to aggressive thoughts and even violence, although it presumes that there is a temperature limit above which these behaviors decrease [7,8]. Nevertheless, the lack of solid evidence for an association between temperature and homicides provides a basis for considering that homicide seasonality may be related not only to the Int. ...
... Public Health 2020, 17, 35 2 of 10 physical environment, but might also have a social component [3]. This explanation would support the fact that an increase in homicide rates has been reported on and around special dates, such as events or holidays such as Christmas, New Year, and Thanksgiving [4,[6][7][8][9][10]. ...
... This increase in homicide numbers during holidays (controlled by weather variables) is consistent with the routine activity theory [11], which suggests that certain external events affect the activity patterns and habits of an individual, and that these changes could create situations of conflict that would not occur if the people were involved in structured environments such as school or work [20]. In this way, major holidays that involve changes in activity patterns and mass gatherings, combined with alcohol consumption, could contribute to an increase in situations that lead to conflict and violent behavior, as compared to minor holidays during which daily activities do not change [7,20]. ...
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Homicides are currently the third leading cause of death among young adults, and an increase has been reported during holidays. The aim of the present study was to explore whether an association exists between Carnival in Barranquilla, Colombia, and an increase in homicides in the city. We used mortality records to identify the number of daily homicides of men and women throughout the week of Carnival, and we compared those with records from all of standard days between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015. Conditional fixed-effects models were used, stratified by time and adjusted by weather variables. The average number of homicides on Carnival days was found to be higher than on a standard day, with an OR of 2.34 (CI 95%: 1.19–4.58) for the occurrence of at least one male homicide per day during Carnival, and 1.22 (CI 95%: 1.22–7.36) for female homicides, adjusted by weather variables. The occurrence of homicides during Carnival was observed and was similar to findings for other holidays. Given that violence is a multifactorial phenomenon, the identification of the factors involved serves as a basis for evaluating whether current strategies have a positive effect on controlling it.
... Explanations describing the link between climate change and crime derive from the broader literature on crime seasonality and provide somewhat overlapping predictions with respect to the temperature-crime relationship. The General Affective Aggression Model (GAAM) and Routine Activities Theory (RAT) have both received substantial support in explaining seasonal variation in crime and have been used as explanatory frameworks in the recent literature on climate change and crime (Anderson, 1989;Anderson & Anderson, 1998;Anderson et al., 2000;Breeztke & Cohn, 2011;Carbone-Lopez & Lauritsen, 2013;Ceccato, 2005;Cohen & Felson, 1979;, 2005Harries, Stadler, & Zdokowski, 1984;Hipp, Bauer, Curran, & Bollen, 2004;Kenrick & MacFarlane, 1986;Lebeau, 1990;Lebeau & Corcoran, 1994;Lebeau & Langworthy, 1986;McDowall et al., 2011;Reifman, Larrick, & Fein, 1991;. ...
... Explanations describing the link between climate change and crime derive from the broader literature on crime seasonality and provide somewhat overlapping predictions with respect to the temperature-crime relationship. The General Affective Aggression Model (GAAM) and Routine Activities Theory (RAT) have both received substantial support in explaining seasonal variation in crime and have been used as explanatory frameworks in the recent literature on climate change and crime (Anderson, 1989;Anderson & Anderson, 1998;Anderson et al., 2000;Breeztke & Cohn, 2011;Carbone-Lopez & Lauritsen, 2013;Ceccato, 2005;Cohen & Felson, 1979;, 2005Harries, Stadler, & Zdokowski, 1984;Hipp, Bauer, Curran, & Bollen, 2004;Kenrick & MacFarlane, 1986;Lebeau, 1990;Lebeau & Corcoran, 1994;Lebeau & Langworthy, 1986;McDowall et al., 2011;Reifman, Larrick, & Fein, 1991;. ...
Article
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A growing body of research suggests a positive connection between climate change and crime, but few studies have explored the seasonal nature of that link. Here, we examine how the impact of climate change on crime may partly depend on specific times of the year as recent climatological research suggests that climate change may have a diverging impact during different times of the year. To do so, we utilize the largest, most current dataset of all main categories of reported crime by month and year in the United States—the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Uniform Crime Reports. We employ historical weather data collected by the Global Historical Climatology Network to measure climate change, and develop a procedure that weighs and connects these data to individual crime reporting agencies. We discover not only a positive association between climate change and crime but also substantial monthly variation in this association.
... Recently, studies have focused on seasonal and temporal patterns of suicides and homicides in countries with subtropical and tropical weather, such as Brazil and Singapore. Seasonal variations seem not to be significant, although there are differential patterns of suicides and homicides on different days of the week (Ceccato, 2005;Parker, Gao, & Machin, 2001;Pereira, Andresen, & Mota, 2016). In Colombia, it has been reported that about 32% of homicides in the country are related to recreational activities, cultural events and sports which mainly occur on Saturdays and Sundays (Instituto Nacional de Medicina Legal y Ciencias Forenses, 2016). ...
... Studies in Brazil indicate that crime levels and homicide rates are higher during vacations, which coincide with the warmer months of the year, although temperature variations are modest there (Pereira et al., 2016). Therefore, in tropical and subtropical climates, it is more plausible that seasonal variations of homicides incidence are explained by the seasonal changes in human routines and activities, due to Christmas and the end of year celebrations and other holiday periods; instead of the seasonal changes due to the climate (Ceccato, 2005;Cohen & Felson, 1979). In contrast, temperature changes due to seasons contributes to the temporal changes of violent crimes observed in countries with temperate and cold climates (Cohn & Rotton, 2003;Rock et al., 2008). ...
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Objective To identify seasonal and temporal variations in daily incidence of homicides and suicides in Cali and Manizales, Colombia during 2008–2015. Materials and methods An ecological time series study was performed using negative binomial regression models for daily incidence of homicides and suicides; analyses were controlled for yearly trends and temporal autocorrelations. Results Saturdays, Sundays, December holidays as well as New Year and New Year’s Eve were associated with an increased risk of homicides in both cities. Suicide risk increased during December holidays and New Year in both cities. In addition, the suicide risk increased on paydays, Saturdays, Sundays, and Mondays in Cali, and it decreased during the Holy Week holidays in Manizales. December patterns of suicides and homicides are the opposite in each city, and between cities. Conclusions The incidences of homicides and suicides are not homogeneous over time. These patterns can be explained partially by alcohol consumption and changes in people’s routine activities which may modify exposure to violent circumstances.
... There are conflicting findings regarding seasonality of homicide (Ceccato, 2005;Kposowa and Breault, 1998;Tennenbaum and Fink, 1994;), but most studies using national scale data do not report seasonality effect (Sisti, Rocchi, Macciò and Preti, 2012). However, research does indicate that December tends to be the month with the highest homicide rates in 7 out of 10 years (Cheatwood, 1988). ...
... Most research on temporal patterns in homicide shows that it is more likely to happen on weekends and during the nights (Ceccato, 2005;Kposowa and Breault, 1998;Lester, 1979;Sisti, Rocchi, Macciò and Preti, 2012). This study confirms this finding for Turkey as well, however trends identified here are more spread out. ...
Article
Aim of this study was to generate a database of homicide incidents in Turkey in 2017 from Police Bulletins, to study the characteristics of homicide on a national level, including temporal homicide patterns. A database of 782 homicide incidents that took place in 2017 was generated from Police Bulletins. Data on the number of victims, number of offenders, time and place of homicide, weapon used, and apprehension of the offender were extracted from the Police Bulletins and used in SPSS analysis of the data. Incidents identified involved 863 victims of homicide, including 16 homicide-suicide incidents. Most homicides identified were one-on-one events. 68,3% of homicides had taken place on the outside. No statistically significant seasonal effect was found, but December had the highest frequency of homicide. Religious holidays were not associated with spike or drops in homicide frequency. It was found that frequency of homicides drops towards the middle of the week, and increase over the weekend. Over the course of the day, homicides increased in the afternoons and evening, peaking at 9pm. Most homicides were committed using a weapon, with firearms used in 61,7% of all homicides. Homicide-suicides were more likely to happen during winter months, and commonly involved a firearm. While the data is incomplete, this study confirms on a national level many findings of smaller studies that have been conducted in Turkey on a local level. Expansion of the database is needed to improve the understanding of temporal patterns of homicide.
... There are conflicting findings regarding seasonality of homicide (Ceccato, 2005;Kposowa and Breault, 1998;Tennenbaum and Fink, 1994;), but most studies using national scale data do not report seasonality effect (Sisti, Rocchi, Macciò and Preti, 2012). However, research does indicate that December tends to be the month with the highest homicide rates in 7 out of 10 years (Cheatwood, 1988). ...
... Most research on temporal patterns in homicide shows that it is more likely to happen on weekends and during the nights (Ceccato, 2005;Kposowa and Breault, 1998;Lester, 1979;Sisti, Rocchi, Macciò and Preti, 2012). This study confirms this finding for Turkey as well, however trends identified here are more spread out. ...
... There are conflicting findings regarding seasonality of homicide (Ceccato, 2005;Kposowa and Breault, 1998;Tennenbaum and Fink, 1994;), but most studies using national scale data do not report seasonality effect (Sisti, Rocchi, Macciò and Preti, 2012). However, research does indicate that December tends to be the month with the highest homicide rates in 7 out of 10 years (Cheatwood, 1988). ...
... Most research on temporal patterns in homicide shows that it is more likely to happen on weekends and during the nights (Ceccato, 2005;Kposowa and Breault, 1998;Lester, 1979;Sisti, Rocchi, Macciò and Preti, 2012). This study confirms this finding for Turkey as well, however trends identified here are more spread out. ...
... Total crime per 100,000 inhabitants (1996, index = 100) (1990-2008) 3ii Slight increases (1990( -2008( ) Decrease (1993( -2005 Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) Urban Decrease (1990( -2008( ) Decrease (1990( -2008 Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) Total Decrease (1990( -2008( ) Decrease (1990( -2008 Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) England/UK iv Rural Decrease (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) In England, for burglary and offenses against vehicles there is some evidence of a narrowing of the disparity in crime rates between urban and rural areas (Higgins, Robb, & Britton, 2010). However, overall police-recorded crime figures for England in 2009/2010 show that crime rates in areas classified as predominantly urban were higher than in areas predominantly rural. ...
... For a comprehensive review see Cohn (1990) and also Cohn (1993); Cohn and Rotton (2000); Harries, Stadler, and Zdorkwski (1984); Horrocks and Menclova (2011);McDowall and Curtis (2014). Ceccato (2005) evaluates the influence of weather and temporal variations on violent behavior in Sao Paulo, Brazil, one of few studies of this type on a tropical country. Overall, the results show that temporal variables (variations in people's routines) are far more powerful than weather covariates in explaining levels of homicide for the Brazilian case. ...
... Total crime per 100,000 inhabitants (1996, index = 100) (1990-2008) 3ii Slight increases (1990( -2008( ) Decrease (1993( -2005 Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) Urban Decrease (1990( -2008( ) Decrease (1990( -2008 Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) Total Decrease (1990( -2008( ) Decrease (1990( -2008 Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) Decrease (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) England/UK iv Rural Decrease (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) In England, for burglary and offenses against vehicles there is some evidence of a narrowing of the disparity in crime rates between urban and rural areas (Higgins, Robb, & Britton, 2010). However, overall police-recorded crime figures for England in 2009/2010 show that crime rates in areas classified as predominantly urban were higher than in areas predominantly rural. ...
... For a comprehensive review see Cohn (1990) and also Cohn (1993); Cohn and Rotton (2000); Harries, Stadler, and Zdorkwski (1984); Horrocks and Menclova (2011);McDowall and Curtis (2014). Ceccato (2005) evaluates the influence of weather and temporal variations on violent behavior in Sao Paulo, Brazil, one of few studies of this type on a tropical country. Overall, the results show that temporal variables (variations in people's routines) are far more powerful than weather covariates in explaining levels of homicide for the Brazilian case. ...
Chapter
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This chapter starts by comparing crime rates in Sweden with those in the United States and the United Kingdom. In all three countries, urban crime rates are higher than rural ones, regardless of definitions of crime types and how rural areas are conceptualized. An alternative to relying solely on official police statistics is to complement them, as much as possible, with data from national crime victim surveys, as it is done in this chapter. Despite the limitations of these sources of data, they are the most reliable data available for representing the geographic distribution of crime in Sweden and elsewhere. First, trends in crime rates and prevalence are compared in a selection of countries as background for the Swedish case. This chapter discusses evidence about the so-called “convergence hypothesis” of urban and rural crime rates. Then, the analysis focuses on specific types of violent and property crimes in rural areas, drawing conclusions for rural areas across countries whenever possible. The chapter also discusses crime variation by groups of individuals (including repeat victimization), but the focus is on crime variations over time in selected rural communities. The concept of population at risk using both resident population and floating population (by vehicle traffic) is also discussed.
... For example, greenspace may reduce CVD mortality by both increasing activity (recreation) and reducing stress (restoration). On the other hand, greenspaces' mitigation effects, for example by reducing heat, are not limited to reducing the risk for CMNN diseases but may also reduce risks for CVD (Gasparrini et al., 2012) and violence-related mortality (homicides) (Ceccato, 2005;Trujillo and Howley, 2019). We use these three pathways as a simplified framework to guide our analysis, while acknowledging these nuances and accounting for such potential overlaps when interpreting the results. ...
... Greenspaces can also indirectly reduce violence by providing safe spaces for activity and social interactions, which contribute to community social capital (Bedimo-Rung et al., 2005). From a planetary health perspective, the stronger protective effect of greenness from men's violence mortality in areas with low education (Appendix 3b) could be attributed to urban heat abatements, as greenspace were found to reduce spikes in violent behaviors that were attributed to extreme heat (Ceccato, 2005;Trujillo and Howley, 2019), especially in low-income urban areas where heat-violent crime associations were shown to be stronger (Heilmann and Kahn, 2019). Overall, our results suggest that in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods, these roles of greenspace in restoration, recreation and mitigation become more essential and even critical given that other alternatives are likely to be unavailable and/or unaffordable for residents (Moore et al., 2008). ...
Article
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Background Recent studies highlight the equigenic potential of greenspaces by showing narrower socioeconomic health inequalities in greener areas. However, results to date have been inconsistent and derived from high-income countries. We examined whether urban greenness modifies the associations between area-level education, as a proxy for socioeconomic status, and life expectancy and cause-specific mortality in Latin American cities. Methods We included 28 large cities, >137 million inhabitants, in nine Latin American countries, comprising 671 sub-city units, for 2012–2016. Socioeconomic status was assessed through a composite index of sub-city level education, and greenness was calculated using the normalized difference vegetation index. We fitted multilevel models with sub-city units nested in cities, with life expectancy or log(mortality) as the outcome. Findings We observed a social gradient, with higher levels of education associated with higher life expectancy and lower cause-specific mortality. There was weak evidence supporting the equigenesis hypothesis as greenness differentially modified the association between education and mortality outcomes. We observed an equigenic effect, with doubling magnitudes in the violence-related mortality reduction by education in areas with low greenness compared to medium-high greenness areas among men (16% [95% CI 12%–20%] vs 8% [95% CI 4%–11%] per 1 SD increase in area-level education). However, in contradiction to the equigenesis hypothesis, the magnitude in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality reduction by education was stronger in areas with medium-high greenness compared to areas with low greenness (6% [95% CI 4%–7%] vs 1% [95% CI -1%–3%] and 5% [95% CI 3%–7%] vs 1% [95% CI -1%–3%] per 1 SD increase in area-level education, in women and men, respectively). Similarly, each 1-SD increase in greenness widened the educational inequality in life expectancy by 0.15 years and 0.20 years, in women and men, respectively. The equigenic effect was not observed in violence-related mortality among women and in mortality due to communicable diseases, maternal, neonatal and nutritional conditions (CMNN). Interpretation Our results confirm socioeconomic health inequalities in Latin American cities and show that the equigenic properties of greenspace vary by health outcome. Although mixed, our findings suggest that future greening policies should account for local social and economic conditions to ensure that greenspaces provide health benefits for all, and do not further exacerbate existing health inequalities in the region. Funding Wellcome Trust (Grant, 205177/Z/16/Z).
... Both seasonality and meteorologic conditions' influence on criminality have been studied for a long time (e.g., Breetzke and Cohn 2012;Ceccato 2005;Cohn 1990;Cohn and Rotton 2000;Farrell and Pease 1994;Linning et al. 2016;Morken and Linaker 2000), mostly motivated by the availability of both climate and crime data, in combination with the geographical information systems and geographic information science's expansion (Ratcliffe 2006;Schutte and Breetzke 2018). A better understanding of crime's seasonality and climate's influence on crime promotes implementations of more efficient policies, as it helps to identify the appropriate moment to implement crime prevention measures (Andresen and Malleson 2013). ...
Article
Criminology theories imply that time is a relevant variable, especially for the prevention and intervention of criminal occurrences. Thus, the study of criminal temporal patterns has been described as being of great relevance. The present study focuses on describing and exploring the influence of temporal and seasonal variables on the occurrence of different types of theft in the Historic Centre of Porto through the analysis of official records of the Public Security Police. Significant differences were found regarding the time of day and season of occurrence, even though it is not observed for all the types of theft analysed. Overall, theft was more prevalent at night and less frequent during winter, which is congruent with previous literature and the routine activity theory. Being the first case study in Porto city, Portugal, this research may be of extreme importance for both designing prevention and intervention policies in the area, and for inspiring future research on a criminal time analysis.
... Asimismo, en el caso especifico de Brasil existen análisis con respaldo internacional que se han interesado directamente al problema de la violencia letal y sus causas (ANDRADE, DINIZ, 2013;CALDEIRA, 2000;CARDIA, ADORNO, POLETO, 2003;CECCATO, 2005;INGRAM, MARCHESINI DA COSTA, 2017;PEREIRA, MOTA, ANDRESEN, 2015;SILVA, 2014;VILLARREAL;SILVA, 2006). De acuerdo con las indicaciones que emergen de una revisión de la literatura (CECCATO, HAINING, KAHN, 2007;PERES, NIVETTE, 2017;ZALUAR, 2010), los homicidios en Brasil estarían prevalentemente relacionados con las dinámicas asociadas al crimen organizado. ...
... Asimismo, en el caso especifico de Brasil existen análisis con respaldo internacional que se han interesado directamente al problema de la violencia letal y sus causas (Andrade & Diniz, 2013;Caldeira, 2000;Cardia, Adorno & Poleto, 2003;Ceccato, 2005;Ingram & Marchesini da Costa, 2017;Pereira, Mota & Andresen, 2015;Silva, 2014;Villarreal & Silva, 2006). De acuerdo con las indicaciones que emergen de una revisión de la literatura (Ceccato, Haining & Kahn, 2007;Peres & Nivette, 2017;Zaluar, 2010), los homicidios en Brasil estarían prevalentemente relacionados con las dinámicas asociadas al crimen organizado. ...
Chapter
Después de haber sido considerada durante muchos años como uno de los lugares más seguros en todo Brasil, la capital del estado de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, vive hoy en día un paulatino aumento de los delitos violentos, registrando en 2017 una tasa de homicidios por encima del promedio del país (35,6 homicidios por 100.000 habitantes frente a los 29,7 a nivel federal). La investigación que se presenta a continuación pretende explorar las causas que han ocasionado dicho aumento. Para ello, se ha llevado a cabo un análisis cuantitativo basado en la implementación de dos modelos de regresión, respectivamente, a nivel global a través del método de los mínimos cuadrados ordinarios, y a nivel local con la estimación de un modelo geográficamente ponderado. A lo largo del trabajo se ha privilegiado un enfoque geográfico infra-municipal, de modo que la presente contribución se enmarca en la tradición de la “criminología del lugar” (criminology of place) y la micro-geografía del crimen.
... For institutions, our findings suggest that democracy is positively impacted by GDP and expenditures in education. Our analysis also showed that housing spending reduces the homicide rate, as long as investing in this type of infrastructure improves living conditions in deprived areas and slums (favelas), where the highest number of homicides occur over the year (Ceccato 2005). ...
Article
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Several indicators on human development and capabilities have been introduced in recent decades that measure the level of absolute deprivations and freedoms of people. However, these indicators typically do not consider to what extent regions and countries efficiently spend their limited financial resources on improving human development. This is an important shortcoming because regions typically face different financial constraints in developing social policies and promoting human development. In this article, we advance methods from Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure absolute capability values and the social efficiency of 129 Brazilian mesoregions, considering their heterogeneous financial means. We present a new indicator called Capability Index Adjusted by Social Efficiency (CIASE) that evaluates the human development performance of regions based on their absolute levels of deprivations as well as their social efficiency in translating limited financial resources into human development. Moreover, we introduce a Deprivation and Financial Responsibility based Prioritization Index (DFRP) that helps to identify priority regions for higher public expenditures in human development. Our results for the case of Brazil show that several poor regions perform relatively better in terms of social efficiency than in terms of absolute human development. Conversely, several rich regions perform relatively worse in terms of social efficiency than in terms of absolute values. Thus, our analysis shows how DEA methods can help to bridge perspectives that are often presented by politics as antagonistic, but instead could be strong allies for development: attending to human deprivation and promoting social efficiency.
... They theorized that violent crime would be most pronounced in areas with moderate climates because the opportunity of interaction would be maximized without the risk of uncomfortable temperatures. Similar seasonal oscillations in violent crime, with violent crime occurring in higher frequency during elevated temperatures, were also documented by others (Ceccato, 2005;Hu et al., 2017;Schinasi & Hamra, 2017). ...
Article
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Although temperature aggression theory maintains that a high temperature engenders more aggressive behavior by irritating individuals, routine activity theory asserts that violent crime increases as temperature rises because of enhanced interaction among the public in outdoor settings. We investigate the effect of maximum daily temperature on whether crime victims are physically injured during the commission of an outdoor criminal offense in Cleveland, Ohio. We focus on violent crimes occurring outdoors because most U.S. households have central air-conditioning or room air conditioners. Two autoregressive integrative moving average (ARIMA) analyses provide support for routine activity theory because although maximum daily temperature has a strong positive effect on the frequency of violent crimes occurring outdoors, it has little influence on the physical injury of crime victims.
... The empirical support for routine activity theory is present for violent-and propertyrelated crime (Tompson & Bowers, 2015) as well as established seasonal patterns of crime in places with little temperature variation (Ceccato 2005;Pereira et al., 2016). Additionally, at finer scales of temporal resolution (day of the week and hours of the day), research has found that criminal events peak on the weekend and in the evening (Andresen & Malleson, 2015;Ceccato & Uittenbogaard, 2014;Uittenbogaard & Ceccato, 2012), lending support to routine activity theory-criminal events vary by the days of the week within a season and are more common at night when it is cooler (Tompson & Bowers, 2015). ...
... Outside of the US, several studies have similarly found positive associations between various meteorological parameters and crime. In Norway, Morken and Linaker (2000) found seasonal variation of crime throughout the country with violent crimes reaching a peak in June (summer) and a low in winter whilst in Brazil, Ceccato (2005) found more homicides take place in warm summer months than in cold winter months in Sao Paulo. She did however also find that temporal variables (time of day and day of week) were far more powerful when accounting for variations in homicide rates, than temperature and relative humidity. ...
Article
The association between various meteorological parameters and crime is well-established in developed contexts. In contrast in this study, we investigated the association between three weather parameters (temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and three categories of crime in the developing township of Khayelitsha, in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Distributed lag non-linear modelling was used to identify temporal relationships between temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, and violent, property and sexual crime over a 10-year period (2006–2016). We found hot days (defined as ≥ 25 °C) increased the cumulative relative risk of violent crime by up to 32% but were also found to be associated with a lagged increase in violent crime for at least a week thereafter. On very cold days (defined as ≤7∘C), the cumulative relative risk of property crime increased by up to 50% whereas on very rainy days (defined as ≥20mm) the risk of property crime surprisingly increased by 40%. These findings provide some additional evidence for the relationship between the atmospheric environment and human behaviour in a developing context.
... Brott och sociala störningar varierar säsongsmässigt (figur 10) på grund av variationer i klimat och förändrade aktivitetsmönster för individer mellan arbets-och semestertider eller till och med dagar där individer erhåller ekonomisk kompensation (dvs. lönedag eller skatteåterbäring) (Ceccato 2005). Säsongsvariationer kan observeras för våld, stöld och vandalism (figur 6) som är lägst under sommarmånaderna men ökar gradvis under de kallare säsongerna höst, vinter och vår. ...
Technical Report
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I denna studie utvärderar vi den temporala och rumsliga karaktären av brott och händelser av allmän oordning som äger rum i tunnelbanestationer från december 2009 till februari 2019 med hjälp av data som samlats in av SL-tunnelbanesystemet. Vi granskar först litteraturen och föreslår ett konceptuellt ramverk för analys. Sedan introducerar vi Stockholms tunnelbanesystem som fallstudie följt av en beskrivning av studiens metodik. Rapporten presenterar sedan resultaten efter brottstyp, temporära och rumsliga mönster följt av en diskussion om resultaten och lärdomar. Förslag till framtida forskning och förslag gällande design och policy presenteras i rapportens avslutande avsnitt.
... The empirical support for routine activity theory is present for violent-and propertyrelated crime (Tompson & Bowers, 2015) as well as established seasonal patterns of crime in places with little temperature variation (Ceccato 2005;Pereira et al., 2016). Additionally, at finer scales of temporal resolution (day of the week and hours of the day), research has found that criminal events peak on the weekend and in the evening (Andresen & Malleson, 2015;Ceccato & Uittenbogaard, 2014;Uittenbogaard & Ceccato, 2012), lending support to routine activity theory-criminal events vary by the days of the week within a season and are more common at night when it is cooler (Tompson & Bowers, 2015). ...
... For example, whereas street robberies can take place any time anywhere, their incidence is elevated around high schools, but only at daytime and not on weekends (Bernasco et al. 2017;Haberman and Ratcliffe 2015). On a larger temporal scale, some studies have demonstrated spatial variations of the relationship between seasonality and violent crime (Breetzke and Cohn 2012;Ceccato 2005), crime in general (Andresen and Malleson 2013) or police calls for service (Brunsdon et al. 2009). Just as with daily and weekly time cycles, the spatio-temporal seasonal variations are related to variations in routine activities of the population, which in turn are affected by seasonal variations in temperature, precipitation and other weather conditions, but also by the timing of school holidays and other social institutions. ...
Article
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Objectives We investigate the spatio-temporal variation of monthly residential burglary frequencies across neighborhoods as a function of crime generators, street network features and temporally and spatially lagged burglary frequencies. In addition, we evaluate the performance of the model as a forecasting tool.Methods We analyze 48 months of police-recorded residential burglaries across 20 neighborhoods in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, in combination with data on the locations of urban facilities (crime generators), frequencies of other crime types, and street network data. We apply the Integrated Laplace Approximation method, a Bayesian forecasting framework that is less computationally demanding than prior frameworks.ResultsThe local number of retail stores, the number of street robberies perpetrated and the closeness of the local street network are positively related to residential burglary. Inclusion of a general spatio-temporal interaction component significantly improves forecasting performance, but inclusion of spatial proximity or temporal recency components does not.DiscussionOur findings on crime generators and street network characteristics support evidence in the literature on environmental correlates of burglary. The significance of spatio-temporal interaction indicates that residential burglary is spatio-temporally concentrated. Our finding that recency and proximity of prior burglaries do not contribute to the performance of the forecast, probably indicates that relevant spatio-temporal interaction is limited to fine-grained spatial and temporal units of analysis, such as days and street blocks.
... Apart from geographical data, crime is also known to be influenced by temporal factors related to weather conditions and their subsequent impact on activity patterns [73,74]. Empirical findings especially link temperate and more favourable weather in winter to robbery [41], rain on weekends to less robbery [41], and larger variations in climate during the summer months to an increase in property crimes [75]. ...
Preprint
Spatial crime simulations contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms that drive crime and can support decision-makers in developing effective crime reduction strategies. Agent-based models that integrate geographical environments to generate crime patterns have emerged in recent years, although data-driven crime simulations are scarce. This article (1) identifies numerous important drivers of crime patterns, (2) collects relevant, openly available data sources to build a GIS-layer with static and dynamic geographical , as well as temporal features relevant to crime, (3) builds a virtual urban environment with these layers, in which individual offender agents navigate, (4) proposes a data-driven decision-making process using machine-learning for the agents to decide whether to engage in criminal activity based on their perception of the environment and, finally, (5) generates fine-grained crime patterns in a simulated urban environment. The novelty of this work lies in the various large-scale data layers, the integration of machine learning at individual agent level to process the data layers, and the high resolution of the resulting predictions. The results show that the spatial, temporal, and interaction layers are all required to predict the top street segments with the highest number of crimes. In addition, the spatial layer is the most informative, which means that spatial data contributes most to predictive performance. Thus, these findings highlight the importance of various open data sources and the potential of theory-informed, data-driven simulations for the purpose of crime prediction. The resulting model is applicable as a predictive tool and as a test platform to support crime reduction.
... Violence is also highly concentrated in space, with more than 40% of the violent encounters occurring in stations situated within 2 km of the central station; this is true especially for female victims, while men are at higher risk of suffering violence at a metro line's end station (Moreira and Ceccato 2020). Links between crimes and neighbourhood characteristics extend beyond transportation nodes and vary spatially and temporally (Ceccato 2005, Ceccato et al. 2007). Moreira and Ceccato (2020) also found that there was more violence in metro stations located in economically disadvantaged peripheral neighbourhoods than in the rest of the municipality. ...
Article
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The aim of this study is to assess the nature and space-temporal dynamics of property crimes (theft and robbery) in transport nodes, namely, metro stations and their immediate surrounding areas. The analysis is based on crime data over São Paulo’s metro system from 2010 to 2017. Drawing from environmental criminology theory, the methodology combines geographical information system (GIS) as well as statistical analysis using hypothesis testing and negative binomial regression models. Results show that thefts happen more often inside the station and robberies outside, with signs of possible interaction between these environments. Crime is often highly concentrated in a few inner city and end stations, but it varies depending on location and time. Future research and policy implications of the results add to the contribution of this current study.
... Otro resultado consistente fue que únicamente en el 16 (n= 288) y 25% (n= 417) de las colonias se concentró el total de homicidios analizados en 2013 y 2018, respectivamente. Se trata, por lo tanto, de un patrón espacial concentrado que ha sido reportado en varias ciudades en la región de las Américas a partir de análisis geográficos en diferentes escalas territoriales (Carcach, 2015;Ceccato, 2005;Dávila y Pardo, 2013;UNODC, 2014;Wang y Keenan, 2015); esto puede servir para reducir y prevenir la incidencia de homicidios en zonas de mayor concentración. La distribución espacial de los homicidios, por otra parte, reveló que estos ocurrieron en colonias con diferente grado de marginación, principalmente bajo y muy bajo; aunque también ocurrió lo contrario, como es el caso de la colonia Toluquilla, caracterizada por marginación muy alta, la cual presentó en ambos años una alta incidencia de homicidios. ...
Article
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Los homicidios son un problema prioritario de seguridad pública en México, dada la magnitud e impacto que los caracteriza; sin embargo, raramente se estudian como causa de muerte y hecho violento desde una perspectiva geográfica y de salud pública. A partir de fuentes secundarias se llevó a cabo un análisis comparativo de homicidios ocurridos en 2013 y 2018 por colonias y municipios del Área Metropolitana de Guadalajara (AMG), Jalisco; los homicidios fueron georreferenciados considerando el lugar donde ocurrió la agresión y analizados mediante medidas de tendencia central y dispersión con el objetivo de determinar la magnitud, distribución y tendencia espacial. Como resultado, la cantidad de homicidios ocurridos en el AMG aumentó de 2013 (n= 465) a 2018 (n= 988), salvo en el municipio de Zapopan. En 2018 la tasa de homicidios osciló entre 6.2 (Tonalá) y 50.7 por 100 mil habitantes (Tlajomulco de Zúñiga), un incremento hasta 4 veces mayor respecto al 2013. Además, el total de homicidios se concentró en el 16% (2013) y 24% (2018) de las colonias que integran el AMG, caracterizadas por ser en su mayoría de baja y muy baja marginación, lo que implicó un desplazamiento del noroeste-sureste hacia el norte-sur, respectivamente. Los resultados contribuyeron a identificar la magnitud y tendencia espacial de los homicidios asociadas a colonias de mayor riesgo, por lo que se trata de zonas donde se requiere redirigir y mejorar políticas públicas para modificar factores de riesgo, actividades o comportamientos ilícitos que generalmente preceden la ocurrencia de los homicidios. Link directo: http://www.investigacionesgeograficas.unam.mx/index.php/rig/article/view/60060/54129
... The growth of temperature-crime studies continued, positing various explanations for the relationship between temperature and crime, and producing conflicting results that depended upon where this relationship was studied, as well as the types of crimes examined (e.g., Butke & Sheridan, 2010;Ceccato, 2005;Hipp et al., 2004;Mares & Moffett, 2016;Peng et al., 2011;Williams et al., 2015;Yan, 2004). Thus, while these studies have not addressed completely whether there is, indeed, a strong, persistent effect of temperature on crime, prior research does suggest that seasonality-that is, the season of the year or the within year temperature cycle across months-has some relationship to crime. ...
Article
Drawing on prior studies, green criminologists have hypothesized that climate change will both raise the mean temperature and the level of crime. We call this the “climate change-temperature-crime hypothesis” (“CC-T-C”). This hypothesis is an extension of research performed on temperature and crime at the individual level. Other research explores this relationship by testing for the relationship between seasonality and crime within a given period of time (i.e., within years). Climate change, however, produces small changes in temperature over long periods of time, and in this view, the effect of climate change on crime should be assessed across and not within years. In addition, prior CC-T-C studies sometimes employ large geographic aggregations (e.g., the entire whole United States), which masks the CC-T-C association that appears at lower levels of aggregation. Moreover, globally, crime has declined across nations since the early 1990s, during a period of rising mean global temperatures, suggesting that the CC-T-C hypothesis does not fit the general trends in temperature and crime over time. Addressing these issues, the present study assesses the CC-T-C relationship for a sample of 15 large ( N = 15) US cities over a 14-year period. Given the CC-T-C hypothesis parameters, we assessed this relationship using correlations between individual crime and temperature trends for each city. Crime trends were measured by both the number and rate of eight Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Part I crimes, so that for each city, there are 16 crime-temperature correlations. Using a liberal p value ( p = .10), the temperature-crime correlations were rejected as insignificant in 220 of the 234 tests (94%). We discuss the Implications of this finding and suggest that rather than focusing on the temperature-crime relationship, green criminologists interested in the deleterious effects of climate change draw attention to its larger social, economic, environmental and ecological justice implications.
... [4] In most studies, rates of violence are highest in the summer months, especially in hot summers. [9,10] In addition, most time-series studies that compare temperature and rates of violence over different time periods indicate that levels of homicide and other forms of violence increase during hot weather, relative to colder periods in the same setting (Table 1). Associations between temperature and violence are not necessarily linear, however. ...
... It is also worthy to note that despite the high impact this type of violence has in Latin America [53], most studies on sessionality of crime describe patterns occurring in cities located in Europe or North America and for other types of crime [53], [54]. There are few studies reporting sessionality on crime for Latin America, and most of them focus on different types of crime [45], [55]. This ...
Article
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Aggressive behaviors are violent actions or disputes that one individual effectuates over another in which physical harm might happen and occurs in a social environment. These criminal events have negative consequences for public health and citizen’s security, especially in Latin American cities. Predictive crime aims to use analytical techniques on crime databases to identify potential criminal activity. Most research focuses on other types of crime, such as homicide and crime against property. However, there is little research to describe predictive patterns for aggressive behavior at the city scale. This paper studies possible sessional patterns of aggressive behavior crime and its relationship with temporal dynamics shared across different city areas in Bogotá (Colombia), a Latin American city severely affected by this phenomenon. For this, we propose a Spatio-temporal analysis strategy based on predictability, a grounded information theory measure of sessionality, and independent component analysis. Using this approach, we studied more than three million registers reported to the city emergency line from 2014 to 2018 related to aggressive behaviors. Our results show that many city areas exhibit high sessionality values and share multiple temporal dynamics in 8 of 19 regions (localities). Notably, most of these areas present both patterns in 7 of 19 regions. Remarkably, these patterns emerged in regions that account for the 71% of aggressive behavior reports. These results agree with modern crime theories that consider Spatio-temporal dynamics, such as routine activity theory, suggesting that the citizen’s routines may generate particular social dynamics which significantly influence aggressive behavior.
... Th is is partly caused by the fact that people spend more time outside during the hot season. In Brazil, Ceccato (2005 ) found the same spatial pattern for homicides. In other words, the disadvantaged areas of those cities were also characterized by greater changes relative to crime rates depending on the season. ...
Article
Despite extensive research, measurable benefits of predictive policing are scarce. We argue that powerful models might not always help the work of officers. Furthermore, developed models are often unexplainable, leading to trust issues between police intuition and machine-made prediction. We use a joint approach, mixing criminology and data science knowledge, to design an explainable predictive policing model. The proposed model (a set of explainable decision trees) can predict police resource requirement across the city and explain this prediction based on human-understandable cues (i.e., past event information, weather, and socio-demographic information). The explainable decision tree is then compared to a non-explainable model (i.e., a neural network) to compare performance. Analyzing the decision tree behaviour revealed multiple relations with established criminology knowledge. Weather and recent event distribution were found to be the most useful predictors of police workforce resource. Despite wide research showing relationships between socio-demographic information and police activity, socio-demographic information did not contribute much to the model’s performance. Though there is a lack of research on measurable effects of predictive policing applications, we argue that combining human instinct with machine prediction reduces risks of human knowledge loss, machine bias, and lack of confidence in the system.
... Environmental criminologists have been studying these questions for decades (Wortley and Townsley 2017). Much research has focused on the spatial clustering of crime (e.g., Chainey and Ratcliffe 2013;Eck et al. 2005;Sherman et al. 1989), on patterns of (near) repeat victimization (e.g., Bowers and Johnson 2005;Farrell et al. 1995;Morgan 2001) and on seasonal variations in crime (e.g., Andresen and Malleson 2013;Ceccato 2005;Linning et al. 2017). Since the 1970s, a number of key environmental criminological theories have been developed for understanding why such spatio-temporal crime patterns exist. ...
Article
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Objectives Crime pattern theory and the related empirical research have remained rather a-temporal, as if the timing of routine activities and crime plays no role. Building on previous geography of crime research, we extend crime pattern theory and propose that an offender’s spatial knowledge acquired during daily routine activities is not equally applicable to all times of day. Methods We put this extended theory to a first empirical test by applying a discrete spatial choice model to detailed information from the Netherlands on 71 offences committed by 30 offenders collected through a unique online survey instrument. The offenders reported on their most important activity nodes and offence locations over the past year, as well as the specific times they regularly visited these locations. Results The results show that almost 40% of the offences are committed within the neighbourhoods of offenders’ activity nodes, increasing to 85% when including first-, second- and third-order neighbourhoods. Though not statistically significant in our small sample, the results further suggest that offenders are more likely to commit crime in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at the same time of day than in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at different times of day. Conclusion Our extension of crime pattern theory is only tentatively supported. We argue for replication research with larger samples before any firm conclusions are warranted.
... Policies based on urban fortifications and their implications in terms of social integration have been critically examined (Landman, 2012). Temporal and seasonal effects on violent crime in cities have also been explored (Ceccato, 2005;Azjenman and Jaitman, 2016). ...
Article
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This article focuses on the effect of urbanization on violent crime – particularly homicide– in Costa Rica. Although violence is a major problem throughout Latin America, few empirical studies carried out in the area use high-quality socioeconomic and crime databases with a high level of geographical disaggregation. In this article, we employ data from all 473 districts of Costa Rica between 2010 and 2013. We develop a model which takes into account endogeneity problems and uses contrasts of marginal linear predictions. We conclude that the degree of urban concentration plays a key role in explaining homicide rates, other things being equal. This effect is progressive: the greater the urban concentration, the greater the increase in homicide rates. This causal relationship is not observed in offenses other than homicide.
... It is also worthy to note that despite the high impact this type of violence has in Latin America [53], most studies on sessionality of crime describe patterns occurring in cities located in Europe or North America and for other types of crime [53], [54]. There are few studies reporting sessionality on crime for Latin America, and most of them focus on different types of crime [45], [55]. This ...
Article
Full-text available
Aggressive behaviors are violent actions or disputes that one individual effectuates over another in which physical harm might happen and occurs in a social environment. These criminal events have negative consequences for public health and citizen’s security, especially in Latin American cities. Predictive crime aims to use analytical techniques on crime databases to identify potential criminal activity. Most research focuses on other types of crime, such as homicide and crime against property. However, there is little research to describe predictive patterns for aggressive behavior at the city scale. This paper studies possible sessional patterns of aggressive behavior crime and its relationship with temporal dynamics shared across different city areas in Bogotá (Colombia), a Latin American city severely affected by this phenomenon. For this, we propose a Spatio-temporal analysis strategy based on predictability, a grounded information theory measure of sessionality, and independent component analysis. Using this approach, we studied more than three million registers reported to the city emergency line from 2014 to 2018 related to aggressive behaviors. Our results show that many city areas exhibit high sessionality values and share multiple temporal dynamics in 8 of 19 regions (localities). Notably, most of these areas present both patterns in 7 of 19 regions. Remarkably, these patterns emerged in regions that account for the 71% of aggressive behavior reports. These results agree with modern crime theories that consider Spatio-temporal dynamics, such as routine activity theory, suggesting that the citizen’s routines may generate particular social dynamics which significantly influence aggressive behavior.
... Situationell brottsprevention visar att brott följer rytmiska mönster av aktiviteter och markanvändningar. Om dessa mönster identifieras kan brott förebyggas effektivare över rum och tid 48 . Till exempel genom att skicka ut polispatruller till sådana brottstyngda områden endast vid speciella tider på dygnet. ...
Technical Report
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Syftet med den här rapporten är att ge en översikt på hur säkerhet och trygghet konceptualiseras och omsätts i praktiken i Sverige. Vi ger även tips på hur man går från ord till handling när man arbetar med situationsbaserade, brottspreventiva och trygghetsfrämjande åtgärder med fokus på individ och hänsyn till plats- och tidsdynamik. Vi gör detta genom att visa exempel på: o Visioner och pågående projekt som implementeras i verkligheten mot bakgrund av FN:s Agenda 2030 för hållbar utveckling. o Praktiska situationsbaserade brottspreventiva och trygghetsfrämjande åtgärder o Innovativa metoder med stort fokus på evidensbaserade åtgärder. o Hur planerare och trygghetsamordnare arbetar i kommuner och vikten av kontext i deras arbete mot brott och otrygghet. o Hur man går från ord till handling när man jobbar med ett situationsbaserat fokus på situationsbaserade brottspreventiva och trygghetsfrämjande åtgärder. Denna rapport som finansieras av FORMAS (Ett forskningsråd för hållbar utveckling) är en fortsättning på den tidigare rapporten, Trygg Stadsmiljö - Teori och praktik för brottsförebyggande & trygghetsskapande åtgärder (2019) av Ceccato och kollegor, och har ett större fokus på fallstudier och exempel på säkerhets- och trygghetsskapande arbete i praktiken. Den första rapporten var ett resultat av ett uppdrag som Avdelningen för Samhällsplanering och Miljö på KTH erhöll i februari år 2019 av Boverket för att kartlägga aktuell teori och praktik för brottsförebyggande och trygghetsskapande fysiska åtgärder i Sverige i ett internationellt perspektiv.
... This is supported by a number of population-level studies which found that warmer regions of the globe usually have the highest rates of violence, as do warmer parts of individual countries (Chersich et al., 2019;Miles-Novelo and Anderson, 2019). Furthermore, both violent and nonviolent crimes are positively correlated with temperature (Anderson, 1987) and most studies have found that rates of violence are highest in the summer months (Ceccato, 2005;Breetzke and Cohn, 2012;Chersich et al., 2019). In addition, exposure to high temperatures has been found to increase aggression in both mosquitofish (Wilson et al., 2007;Seebacher et al., 2013) and humans (Anderson, 1987). ...
Article
Thyroid hormones have a profound influence on development, cellular differentiation and metabolism, and are also suspected of playing a role in aggression. We measured territorial aggression, body temperature (T b) and serum thyroid hormones levels of male striped hamsters (Cricetulus barabensis) acclimated to either cold (5 • C), cool (21 • C) or hot (34 • C) ambient temperatures. The effects of methimazole on territorial aggression, food intake, metabolic rate and serum thyroid hormone levels, were also examined. Territorial aggression was significantly lower in male hamsters acclimated to the hot temperature compared to those acclimated to the cool or cold temperatures. T b significantly increased during aggressive territorial interactions with intruders but did not significantly differ among the three temperature treatments. Serum T 3 , T 4 and cortisol levels of hamsters acclimated to 34 • C were significantly lower than those acclimated to 21 • C. In addition to significantly reducing territorial aggression, treatment with methimazole also significantly reduced serum T 3 and T 4 levels, T b and metabolic rate. These results suggest that exposure to high temperatures reduces the capacity of hamsters to dissipate heat causing them to lower their metabolic rate, which, in turn, causes them to reduce territorial aggression to prevent hyperthermia. The lower metabolic rate mediated by down-regulated thyroid hormones inhibits territorial aggression and could thereby determine the outcome of territorial conflicts.
... In line with much prior work, we also find that, regardless of weather, rates of interpersonal violence and homicides are substantially higher on weekends (Ceccato, 2005;Rotton & Cohn, 2003). We also found that rates of interpersonal violence were higher on public holidays. ...
Article
This study investigates the relationship between weather and crime in Barranquilla, Colombia, a city in the Torrid Zone, which in contrast to more commonly studied temperate zones is hot and humid year-round. Our analysis is based on daily variations in four weather variables (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed) and two indicators of criminal activity, namely, homicides and interpersonal violence. To help identify statistical links, we add controls for temporal variables. Using count data models in the estimations, we do not find any statistically significant relationship between weather patterns and homicides. However, we find that weather can be an important predictor of interpersonal violence in this area. These findings draw attention to the importance of considering weather factors when designing a long-run urban security policy in one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change.
... Situationell brottsprevention visar att brott följer rytmiska mönster av aktiviteter och markanvändningar. Om dessa mönster identifieras kan brott förebyggas effektivare över rum och tid (Ceccato, 2005, Rey et al., 2012, Ceccato och Uittenbogaard, 2014 När invånare och myndigheter inte arbetar för att förhindra små brott, utvecklas en känsla av oordning i samhället. Denna process reproducerar sig själv, så oordning orsakar brott, och brottslighet i sin tur skapar mer rädsla och oordning. ...
Technical Report
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I februari år 2019 erhöll Avdelningen för Samhällsplanering och Miljö på KTH i uppdrag av Boverket att kartlägga aktuell teori och praktik för brottsförebyggande och trygghetsskapande fysiska åtgärder i Sverige. Målet med studien var att inhämta och sammanställa kunskap om hur trygghetsskapande och brottsförebyggande perspektiv ser ut idag och vilka åtgärder som vidtas i utformningen av fysiska miljöer i de olika skedena av samhällsbyggnadsprocessen. Rapporten är en kartläggning av aktuell nationell och internationell teori och praktik för brottsförebyggande och trygghetsskapande fysiska åtgärder.
... Some investigate the location of crime in different seasons, without explicitly seeking to assess the similarity of these locations. For example, Ceccato (2005) found evidence to support the hypothesis that crime in Sao Paulo, Brazil, clusters in different locations during different times of year. Szkola et al. (2019) used risk terrain modelling to determine the risk of firearms crime at different times and locations in Baltimore, MD, and found that for most locations, risk varied throughout the year. ...
Article
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Objectives To explore spatial patterns of crime in a small northern city, and assess the degree of similarity in these patterns across seasons. Methods Calls for police service frequently associated with crime (theft, break and enter, domestic dispute, assault, and neighbor disputes) were acquired for a five year time span (2015–2019) for the city of North Bay, Ontario, Canada (population 50,396). Exploratory data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics and a kernel density mapping technique. Andresen’s spatial point pattern test (SPPT) was then used to assess the degree of similarity between the seasonal patterns (spring, summer, autumn, winter) for each call type at two different spatial scales (dissemination area and census tract). Results Exploratory data analysis of crime concentration at street segments showed that calls are generally more dispersed through the city in the warmer seasons of spring and summer. Kernel density mapping also shows increases in the intensity of hotspots at these times, but little overall change in pattern. The SPPT does find some evidence for seasonal differences in crime pattern across the city as a whole, specifically for thefts and break and enters. These differences are focused on the downtown core, as well as the outlying rural areas of the city. Conclusions For the various crime types examined, preliminary analysis, kernel density mapping, and the SPPT found differences in crime pattern consistent with the routine activities theory.
... However, evidence has shown contradictory findings, sometimes even within the same urban area. In São Paulo, Ceccato (2005) suggested that central and peripheral deprived areas showed the highest number of killings over the year, when most people had time off, especially during vacations (hot months of the year), in particular during evenings and weekends. Bando (2012) also identified a significant spike in homicides during Christmas and New Year, which can be partially explained by changes in people's routine activity. ...
Article
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Reviewing national literature on homicides in Brazil, this article explores questions that relate to the nature, trends, determinants, and impact of these crimes on society, as well as interventions to combat this type of violence. The article contributes to the international literature by reviewing and critically discussing a sample of 112 theses on homicides from the Portuguese-language literature using the Brazilian Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations from 2000 to 2020. Highlighting an issue that primarily affects young, poor Black men, the article helps advocate for a better understanding of other types of lethal violence that affect women, LGBQTI and other minorities. The article calls for a better understanding of the role of the state, the police and other criminal justice actors as generators and/or controllers of violence, as well as the need for other perspectives on homicide prevention, which include the microsituational aspects of killing, organized crime, and interaction between the individual and the environment.
... A final time-varying confounder added to the study was the temperature of each city. Over the past decade there has been a growing interest to determine how environmental factors such as climate influence different types of crime (see Breetzke & Cohn, 2012;Ceccato, 2005;Linning et al., 2017;Mares, 2013;Schinasi & Hamra, 2017). The vast majority of this research across a number of geographic locales has found positive associations between various meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, and crime (Agnew, 2012;Hipp et al., 2004;Ranson, 2014). ...
Article
Residents in US cities are exposed to high levels of stress and violent crime. At the same time, a number of cities have put forward “greening” efforts which may promote nature’s calming effects and reduce stressful stimuli. Previous research has shown that greening may lower aggressive behaviors and violent crime. In this study we examined, for the first time, the longitudinal effects over a 30-year period of average city greenness on homicide rates across 290 major cities in the US, using multilevel linear growth curve modeling. Overall, homicide rates in US cities decreased over this time-period (52.1–33.5 per 100,000 population) while the average greenness increased slightly (0.41–0.43 NDVI). Change in average city greenness was negatively associated with homicide, controlling for a range of variables (β = −.30, p-value = .02). The results of this study suggest that efforts to increase urban greenness may have small but significant violence-reduction benefits.
... In addition, due to our focus being on a rare incident, the small sample size did not allow for disaggregation by time day or by day of the week and run the same analysis. Such disaggregation would permit the differentiation of routine activities of victims/offenders in both datasets (Ceccato, 2005). ...
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The dark figures of crime are occurrences that, by some criteria, are called crime yet that are not registered in the official statistics. According to several studies, only a few rapes are reported to the authorities. The current study, using crime data from Campinas, Brazil, sought to examine the spatial dark figures of rapes through the comparison between the spatial patterns of incidents from an official source (police) and the spatial patterns of incidents from an unofficial source (hospital). We used Kernel density estimation maps, generalized Gini coefficient, and a spatial point patterns test to measure the spatial dissimilarities between both sources. Also, we estimated the likelihood of spatial dark figures of rapes using logistic regression models. The results indicate patterns of spatial dark figures of rapes and its association with the street segment and the neighborhood factors. The findings suggest the potential for partnerships between police and medical services in targeting locations with high levels of rape underreport. In addition, it supports place-based prevention measures.
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The objective was to evaluate correlations between suicide, homicide and socio-demographic variables by an ecological study. Mortality and socio-demographic data were collected from official records of the Ministry of Health and IBGE (2010), aggregated by state (27). The data were analyzed using correlation techniques, factor analysis, principal component analysis with a varimax rotation and multiple linear regression. Suicide age-adjusted rates for the total population, men and women were 5.0, 8.0, and 2.2 per 100,000 inhabitants respectively. The suicide rates ranged from 2.7 in Pará to 9.1 in Rio Grande do Sul. Homicide for the total population, men and women were 27.2, 50.8, and 4.5 per 100,000, respectively. The homicide rates ranged from 13.0 in Santa Catarina to 68.9 in Alagoas. Suicide and homicide were negatively associated, the significance persisted among men. Unemployment was negatively correlated with suicide and positively with homicide. Different socio-demographic variables were found to correlate with suicide and homicide in the regressions. Suicide showed a pattern suggesting that, in Brazil, it is related to high socioeconomic status. Homicide seemed to follow the pattern found in other countries, associated with lower social and economic status.
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Crime is not simply an urban phenomenon. Yet, until recently, criminology and other related sciences have neglected the nature and levels of crime outside urban areas (Donnermeyer 2016). There exists a multitude of reasons why scholars, policy and decision-makers as well as individuals in general should care about crime and safety in rural areas. This book, best understood as an extended essay, examines the evidence of crime in rural contexts, feelings of perceived safety or lack thereof, rural policing with examples of crime prevention practices. The aim of this book is to demonstrate the importance of crime and safety in areas on the rural-urban continuum in general, and from a social sustainability perspective in particular. This aim is achieved by first outlining 20 reasons as to why crime and safety matter, which also serves to delineate the field of research and illustrate its complexity, with many interdisciplinary ramifications. Then, by reviewing the international literature, the book reports four decades of English-language studies within the field and, finally, presents a research agenda which takes into consideration emergent areas of research, implications for practice, and the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Expanding our knowledge on rural crime and safety is not only an important step for the future of criminology, but a prerequisite for ever obtaining a truly sustainable society.
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Background: Criminology research has traditionally investigated sociodemographic predictors of crime, such as sex, race, age, and socioeconomic status. However, evidence suggests that short-term fluctuations in crime often vary more than long-term trends, which sociodemographic factors cannot explain. This has redirected researchers to explore how environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, influence criminal behavior. In this study we investigate the association between daily ambient temperature and homicide incidence in South Africa, a country with one of the highest homicide rates in the world. Methods: Mortality data was from South Africa's civil registration system and includes all recorded deaths in the country from 1997 to 2013 (17 years). Daily temperature was from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association of the United States and South Africa's Agricultural Research Council. Data were analyzed using a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression. We delineated cases as either "definite" (ICD-10 codes X85-Y09, n = 68,356) or "probable" homicides (ICD-10 codes W25-W26, W32-W34, W50, Y22-Y24, Y28-Y29, n = 177,873). Case periods were defined as the day on which a death occurred. Control periods were selected using a day-of-week match within the same month and district. Analyses investigated same-day and lagged effects of maximum, mean and minimum temperature. Results: A one-degree Celsius increase in same-day maximum temperature - our a priori metric of choice - was associated with a 1.5% (1.3-1.8%) increase in definite homicides and a 1.2% (1.1-1.3%) increase in total (definite + probable) homicides. Significant (p < 0.05) positive associations were also observed when applying other temperature metrics (mean, minimum) and lags (1, 0-1). The shape of the association did not display any clear non-linearities. There was no evidence of confounding by public holidays or air pollution. Conclusions: This study suggests a positive association between daily ambient temperature and homicide in South Africa. This temperature-health relationship may be of particular concern in the context of climate change. The ability to include meteorological variables as a predictor of criminal activity and violent behavior could prove valuable in resource allocation for crime prevention efforts.
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The study investigated the relationships between climate and various crimes of rural communities in Ika-South Local Government of Delta State, in Nigeria. The study adopted the survey and expost-facto research designs. Primary and secondary data were used for the study. The primary data were sourced through the aid of a structured questionnaire, while the secondary data (temperature, rainfall, and crime records) were sourced from the archive of Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and the Nigerian Police Force, Agbor Area Command respectively. The Multiple linear regressions (MLR) was employed for data analysis. The findings of the study revealed that, there is a significant relationship between climate and crime, with robbery and burglary revealed to happen more during rains. The study concludes by recommending that there should be community policing within the communities to improve security in the area.
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The current study uses pooled NCVS data (1992-2015) to examine if the relationship between climate change and victimization risk is modified by victim and incident characteristics. Panel analysis yields interesting findings. First, results mirror those found in prior studies utilizing UCR data, providing another indication that the link between a warming climate and crime may be quite robust. Second, the results indicate that climatic effects may play out differently in different contexts. For example, outdoor victimizations, especially those near a person's residence, appear increasingly elastic during anomalously warm temperatures. In addition, subpopulations (males and African-Americans) are also at increased risk of victimization. Our results effectively suggest that at-risk populations are more vulnerable to climatic variability.
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Spatial crime simulations contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms that drive crime and can support decision-makers in developing effective crime reduction strategies. Agent-based models that integrate geographical environments to generate crime patterns have emerged in recent years, although data-driven crime simulations are scarce. This article (1) identifies numerous important drivers of crime patterns, (2) collects relevant, openly available data sources to build a GIS-layer with static and dynamic geographical, as well as temporal features relevant to crime, (3) builds a virtual urban environment with these layers, in which individual offender agents navigate, (4) proposes a data-driven decision-making process using machine-learning for the agents to decide whether to engage in criminal activity based on their perception of the environment and, finally, (5) generates fine-grained crime patterns in a simulated urban environment. The novelty of this work lies in the various large-scale data layers, the integration of machine learning at individual agent level to process the data layers, and the high resolution of the resulting predictions. The results show that the spatial, temporal, and interaction layers are all required to predict the top street segments with the highest number of crimes. In addition, the spatial layer is the most informative, which means that spatial data contributes most to predictive performance. Thus, these findings highlight the importance of the inclusion of various open data sources and the potential of theory-informed, data-driven simulations for the purpose of crime prediction. The resulting model is applicable as a predictive tool and as a test platform to support crime reduction.
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Despite the continued prevalence of violence in Latin America, there is a relative dearth of research investigating both spatial patterns of violent crimes and the effectiveness of evidence-based crime prevention policies in Brazil. This study aims to address this gap in extant knowledge by creating a Spatial Violence Index and a Restrictive Ambient Index to investigate the spatial dynamics of violent crimes and urban vulnerabilities in Fortaleza. Both exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial regression models were employed to visualize the associative patterns and measure the correlation between the two indexes. The results demonstrate how locations characterized by high levels of violence are spatially correlated with more vulnerable locations in terms of both socio-economic-demographics and urban disorder. Overall, the study identified 124 vulnerable micro-territories that would benefit from the allocation of resources in an effort to reduce violence in the city by enhancing the efficiency of policing and prevention strategies.
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O artigo apresenta uma caracterização da mobilidade criminal e do modus operandi dos crimes de estupro ocorridos na cidade de Maceió (AL) entre os anos de 2015 e 2017. Os dados reunidos no estudo foram cedidos pelas Polícias Civil e Militar do Estado de Alagoas e pela Secretaria de Estado de Ressocialização e Inclusão Social. Recorreu-se à abordagem descritiva para descrever os aspectos configuracionais dos crimes sexuais notificados na cidade e no período supracitados. Na análise dos resultados foi possível identificar padrões na forma de atuação dos agressores, nos perfis da vítima e do autor do crime e nas configurações espaço-temporais dos crimes de estupro sobre o perímetro urbano da capital alagoana.
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Research on youth delinquency has been essential for gaining a deeper understanding of the etiology of delinquent behavior. Studies considering the environmental perspective have increased during the last decade, but relatively little attention has been paid to temporal patterns and weather conditions. The present study explores the seasonality of youth delinquency as well as the association between violent and non-violent youth offenses and temperature, rainfall, level of darkness, type of day, type of place, and companionship, using data gathered by the police along with data obtained from official weather agencies. To this end, we conducted ANOVA and contingency table analyses. Seasonality was found for non-violent crimes. Companionship, semi-public, and public places were all associated with a higher likelihood of non-violent crime, while darkness and public holidays raise the odds of violent crime to happen. No direct association was found between temperature and type of crime.
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Crime research can be classified into &quote;cause of crime&quote; school and &quote;crime opportunity&quote; school. Environmental perspectives play an important role for both schools. The paper examines the transition between the schools and the scales in &quote;crime and environment&quote; research. The focus of the research shifted from cause of crime to opportunity of crime, with a change of scale from macro to micro. Recently, the research discussed on environment on offense and victimization in maso scale of neighborhood and community. The paper also introduces two recent methodological advances. Hierarchical linear modeling enables us to examine the effects of macro-level causes on micro-level outcomes, as well as cross-level interaction. Geographic Information Science enables us to examine spatial dynamics of crime as well as routine activities of potential offenders and victims. Finally, the author discusses the role of environmental psychology to integrate two different views of cause of crime and opportunity of crime.
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Two general theoretical perspectives, criminal opportunity and social disorganization, have been widely used to explain the level of crime in cities and temporal changes in their crime rates. Using a pooled cross-sectional and time-series design of 584 U.S. cities for the years 1960, 1970, and 1980, the present study evaluates the empirical adequacy of these theories. The cross-sectional findings were far more supportive of social disorganization theories than criminal opportunity theories. However, neither perspective was able to consistently explain changes in crime rates over time. Ethnic heterogeneity, household size, and the rate of crowding in households were the strongest predictors of the level and changes in official rates of homicide, robbery, and burglary. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for future research.
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The scan statistic is commonly used to test if a one dimensional point process is purely random, or if any clusters can be detected. Here it is simultaneously extended in three directions:(i) a spatial scan statistic for the detection of clusters in a multi-dimensional point process is proposed, (ii) the area of the scanning window is allowed to vary, and (iii) the baseline process may be any inhomogeneous Poisson process or Bernoulli process with intensity pro-portional to some known function. The main interest is in detecting clusters not explained by the baseline process. These methods are illustrated on an epidemiological data set, but there are other potential areas of application as well.
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Two archival analyses were performed to examine the association between annual temperatures and U.S. crime rates. The first was based on area-averaged temperatures in the United States as a whole for the years 1950 through 1999. Box-Jenkins time-series analyses indicated that annual temperatures were associated with assault but not murder rates in analyses that controlled for yearly population, ethnicity, and three economic variables. The second analysis was based on state-centered crime rates from 1960 through 1998 and included the same controls. Contrary to the general aggression model, cross-sectional time-series analyses indicated that annual temperatures were associated with rates for assault, rape, robbery, burglary, and larceny, but not murder or motor vehicle theft. The results are consistent with a routine activity theory interpretation of everyday and criminal behavior.
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It is observed that hot weather and violence go hand in hand. This fact can be derived from a variety of sources, from a variety of centuries, and from a variety of continents. The first major review of the empirical literature on temperature effects on aggression relied on two epistemological strategies—namely, triangulation and meta-analysis. However, this chapter considers a third strategy the aggression hypothesis, parsimony. The temperature-aggression hypothesis includes the theoretical statement that uncomfortable temperatures cause increase in aggressive motivation, and under the right conditions, in aggressive behavior. The heat hypothesis refers more specifically to the hot side of this hypothesis and is the most widely studied version. The heat effect refers to the empirical observation of an increase in aggressive behavior in hot temperatures. It is noted that people believe that hot temperatures increase feelings of anger and hostility, decrease alertness and energy, and increase aggression and violence. Cold temperatures exhibit exactly the opposite effects.
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While past research has suggested possible seasonal trends in crime rates, this study employs a novel methodology that directly models these changes and predicts them with explanatory variables. Using a nonlinear latent curve model, seasonal fluctuations in crime rates are modeled for a large number of communities in the U.S. over a three-year period with a focus on testing the theoretical predictions of two key explanations for seasonal changes in crime rates: the temperature/aggression and routine activities theories. Using data from 8,460 police units in the U.S. over the 1990 to 1992 period, we found that property crime rates are primarily driven by pleasant weather, consistent with the routine activities theory. Violent crime exhibited evidence in support of both theories.
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Based on the negative affect escape (NAE) model of heat and aggression, it was hypothesized that relationships between temperature and aggravated assaultswould be moderated by access to air conditioning. This hypothesis was tested by subjecting calls for service received by police in Dallas, Texas, to multivariate analyses of covariance that employed weather variables as predictors and controlled for the temporal variables of holidays, time of day, day of the week, and season of the year. As the NAE model predicts, assaults in probably climate-controlled settings were a linear function of temperature, whereas assaults in settings that probably lacked climate control declined after peaking at moderately high temperatures. The results are consistent with recent attempts to use the concept of social avoidance to integrate routine activity theory and psychological theories of aggression.
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In this paper we present a "routine activity approach" for analyzing crime rate trends and cycles. Rather than emphasizing the characteristics of offenders, with this approach we concentrate upon the circumstances in which they carry out predatory criminal acts. Most criminal acts require convergence in space and time of likely offenders, suitable targets and the absence of capable guardians against crime. Human ecological theory facilitates an investigation into the way in which social structure produces this convergence, hence allowing illegal activities to feed upon the legal activities of everyday life. In particular, we hypothesize that the dispersion of activities away from households and families increases the opportunity for crime and thus generates higher crime rates. A variety of data is presented in support of the hypothesis, which helps explain crime rate trends in the United States 1947-1974 as a byproduct of changes in such variables as labor force participation and single-adult households.
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Research on human aggression has progressed to a point at which a unifying framework is needed. Major domain-limited theories of aggression include cognitive neoassociation, social learning, social interaction, script, and excitation transfer theories. Using the general aggression model (GAM), this review posits cognition, affect, and arousal to mediate the effects of situational and personological variables on aggression. The review also organizes recent theories of the development and persistence of aggressive personality. Personality is conceptualized as a set of stable knowledge structures that individuals use to interpret events in their social world and to guide their behavior. In addition to organizing what is already known about human aggression, this review, using the GAM framework, also serves the heuristic function of suggesting what research is needed to fill in theoretical gaps and can be used to create and test interventions for reducing aggression.
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Simple exploratory analysis based on calls to police in Merseyside for a three-year period shows distinct seasonal patterns in calls to domestic disputes and residential burglary. Calls to domestic disputes show a predictable seasonal variation of 25–30 per cent, and calls to burglary 35–40 per cent. It is suggested that large and predictable seasonal variations might provide insight into the problems in question, as well as direction for crime prevention activity. The potential role of repeat victimization is briefly discussed. Seasonality for domestic disputes and burglary is contrasted with car crime, where a rapid decline in one year suggests that large and unpredictable (non-seasonal) changes in crime levels might be used as a step towards crime prevention—if the cause of the change can be identified. Some possible influences upon seasonal variations are discussed. The present paper is a preliminary study which suggests more widespread examination of seasonal and other variation could provide a useful source of criminological information.
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Laboratory research on the effects of temperature has led theorists to propose a curvilinear model relating negative affect and aggression. Two alternative explanations of these lab findings are proposed--one artifactual, one based on attributions for arousal. Both alternatives predict a linear relationship between temperature and aggression in real-world settings, whereas the negative affect curvilinear model predicts a specific curvilinear effect. Two studies are reported that investigated the relationship between temperature and violent crime. Both studies yielded significant linear relationships and failed to demonstrate the specified curvilinear relationship. Also, both studies yielded significant day-of-the-week effects. Implications of these findings for the study of aggression are discussed.
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Two archival studies examined the relation between year-to-year shifts in temperature and violent and property crime rates in the United States. Study 1 examined the relation between annual average temperature and crime rate in the years 1950-1995. As expected, a positive relation between temperature and serious and deadly assault was observed, even after time series, linear year, poverty, and population age effects were statistically controlled. Property crime was unrelated to annual average temperature. Study 2 examined the relation between the average number of hot days (> or = 90 degrees F) and the size of the usual summer increase in violence for the years 1950-1995. As expected, a positive relation was observed between number of hot days and magnitude of the summer effect, even after time series and linear year effects were statistically controlled. For property crime, the summer effect was unrelated to number of hot days.
Article
List of Maps, Illustrations, and Tables Acknowledgments Abbreviations Introduction: Anthropology with an Accent PART ONE: The Talk of Crime 1. Talking of Crime and Ordering the World Crime as a Disorganizing Experience and an Organizing Symbol Violence and Signification From Progress to Economic Crisis, from Authoritarianism to Democracy 2. Crisis, Criminals, and the Spread of Evil Limits to Modernization Going Down Socially and Despising the Poor The Experiences of Violence Dilemmas of Classification and Discrimination Evil and Authority PART TWO: Violent Crime and the Failure of the Rule of Law 3. The Increase in Violent Crime Tailoring the Statistics Crime Trends, 1973-1996 Looking for Explanations 4. The Police: A Long History of Abuses A Critique of the Incomplete Modernity Model Organization of the Police Forces A Tradition of Transgressions 5. Police Violence under Democracy Escalating Police Violence Promoting a "Tough" Police The Massacre at the Casa de Detencao The Police from the Citizens' Point of View Security as a Private Matter The Cycle of Violence PART THREE: Urban Segregation, Fortified Enclaves, and Public Space 6. Sao Paulo: Three Patterns of Spatial Segregation The Concentrated City of Early Industrialization Center-Periphery: The Dispersed City Proximity and Walls in the 198s and 199s 7. Fortified Enclaves: Building Up Walls and Creating a New Private Order Private Worlds for the Elite From Corticos to Luxury Enclaves A Total Way of Life: Advertising Residential Enclaves for the Rich Keeping Order inside the Walls Resisting the Enclaves An Aesthetic of Security 8. The Implosion of Modern Public Life The Modern Ideal of Public Space and City Life Garden City and Modernism: The Lineage of the Fortified Enclave Street Life: Incivility and Aggression Experiencing the Public The Neo-international Style: Sao Paulo and Los Angeles Contradictory Public Space PART FOUR: Violence, Civil Rights, and the Body 9. Violence, the Unbounded Body, and the Disregard for Rights in Brazilian Democracy Human Rights as "Privileges for Bandits" Debating Capital Punishment Punishment as Private and Painful Vengeance Body and Rights Appendix Notes References Index
Article
The Kellogg Institute hosted an academic workshop on 'The Rule of Law and the Underprivileged in Latin America' from 9-11 November 1996. This was the fourth annual workshop in the series 'Project Latin America 2000', supported by The Coca-Cola Company. The workshop gathered scholars, policymakers, business and labor leaders, NGO representatives, and journalists from the Americas, Europe, and Africa, to evaluate the present state of the Latin American legal system. Guillermo O'Donnell (Academic Director of the Kellogg Institute), Juan Mendez (Director of the Inter-American Institute of Human Rights in Costa Rica), and Paulo Sergio Pinheiro (Director of the Center for the Study of Violence at the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil) organized these events. This report summarizes the academic workshop, including each of the papers presented, the discussants' remarks, and the issues debated.
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In studying the causes of crime, most criminologists have concentrated on traditional socio-demographic variables, such as age, sex, race, and socio-economic status. However, some researchers have investigated the influence of the physical environment on criminal behaviour. There is a recent theoretical basis for research into the influence of weather on crime: the situational approach, rational choice theory, and routine activities theory all suggest that weather could significantly influence crime rates and criminal behaviour. This paper brings together for the first time the accumulated research on weather and crime. It discusses the theoretical background, examines research into the influence of different weather conditions (such as high temperatures, rain, and wind) on various types of criminal behaviour, outlines problems with the current research, and suggests ways of advancing knowledge about weather and crime. © 1990 The Institute for the Study and Treatment of Delinquency.
Article
This article examines the theoretical links between socioeconomic status and violent delinquency. The arguments draw on work on social structure and personality and learning theories of crime and delinquency. Hypotheses derived from the resulting explanation are tested using covariance structure models and panel data from a national sample of males. Consistent with these arguments, the results show that violent delinquency is a product of learning definitions favorable to violence, which itself is determined directly and indirectly by association with aggressive peers, socioeconomic status, parenting practices, and prior violent delinquency. The article concludes that explanations of violent adolescent behavior must take into account the joint contributions of social stratification and culture.
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This article focuses on the relation between the growing homicide rates in São Paulo, Brazil, and the realization of human rights, in particular to social and economic rights. The context in which homicides take place are examined in terms of residents' access to rights. Data from the 2000 census, complemented by data available from other official sources, provide profiles of situations in which homicide rates continue to grow. Results indicate that higher homicide rates are related to high concentrations of youth, fewer numbers of older persons, increased levels of poorly educated heads of household, crowded residences, and poor access to health (indicated by lack of hospitals, higher infant mortality rates, and poor sanitation), and few residents with higher levels of income and education.
Article
In the last few decades, social scientists have been reluctant to deal with the relationship between weather and human behavior, owing in part to the discredit brought to such studies by the excesses of the determinists. The few studies undertaken have generally relied on ambient temperature as a measure of stress. In the present work, a discomfort index was related to the incidence of aggravated assault in Dallas, Texas, for an eight-month period from March through October 1980. Some 4000 assault events were aggregated on a daily basis and related to three variables: discomfort index, day of the week, and month. The resulting model accounted for 71% of the variation in assault incidence. The discomfort index yielded significant F statistics whether entered first, second, or third in the model, indicating a significant main effect in spite of its collinearity with month. The analysis supports experimental laboratory evidence suggesting that heat stress is associated with aggressive behavior.
Article
In a variety of problems, it is desirable to have a single coefficient summarize the causal effects of a set of variables when other variables are controlled. The "sheaf coefficient" presented here does this and can be employed meaningfully in the context of path analysis models.
Article
After tracking one another closely for decades, the U.S. robbery rate increased and the burglary rate declined in the late 1980s. The authors investigate the impact of crack on this divergence using a two-stage hierarchical linear model that decomposes between-and within-city variation in crime rates for 142 cities. Given its prominence in discussions of crack and criminal violence, homicide offending is also examined. Net of other influences, cities with higher levels of crack use experienced larger increases in robbery and decreases in burglary. Cities with greater levels of crack had higher homicide rates but did not show more rapid increases in these rates than other cities. The results suggest that the emergence and proliferation of crack shifted the balance of urban offending opportunities and rewards from burglary to robbery.
Article
This research examines the relevance of routine activity theory to three property offences: burglary, robbery, and larceny-theft. We hypothesized that temperature would combine with time of day to predict these offences. This hypothesis was tested using a moderator-variable time-series analysis of property crime reports to police in Minneapolis over a 2-year period. The analysis indicated that time of day and day of the week were the best predictors of all three property crimes. After controlling for 281 temporal variables (e.g. holidays, school closings, and interactions with time of day and day of the week), temperature also emerged as a significant predictor of property offences. Contrary to Queletet's thermic law, more crimes were reported during summer than other months. The results are consistent with predictions derived from routine activity theory.
Article
In “Toward a Theory of Race, Crime, and Urban Inequality,” Sampson and Wilson (1995) argued that racial disparities in violent crime are attributable in large part to the persistent structural disadvantages that are disproportionately concentrated in African American communities. They also argued that the ultimate causes of crime were similar for both Whites and Blacks, leading to what has been labeled the thesis of “racial invariance.” In light of the large scale social changes of the past two decades and the renewed political salience of race and crime in the United States, this paper reassesses and updates evidence evaluating the theory. In so doing, we clarify key concepts from the original thesis, delineate the proper context of validation, and address new challenges. Overall, we find that the accumulated empirical evidence provides broad but qualified support for the theoretical claims. We conclude by charting a dual path forward: an agenda for future research on the linkages between race and crime, and policy recommendations that align with the theory’s emphasis on neighborhood level structural forces but with causal space for cultural factors.
Article
Drawing on Wilson (1987), this article assesses two hypotheses concerning the relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and crime: (1) extremely disadvantaged neighborhoods have unusually high rates of crime; and (2) local structural disadvantage is equally important in influencing crime in black and white neighborhoods. Hence, racial differences in structural disadvantage account for black-white differences in crime across communities. To test these hypotheses, we examine 1990 census and crime data for load areas in the city of Columbus, Ohio. The analysis lends substantial support for both arguments, particularly for the influence of structural disadvantage on violent crime.
Article
Reports on the author's monograph supplement, entitled "Conduct and the Weather-An Inductive Study of the Mental Effects of Definite Meteorological Conditions." This study is an attempt to throw some light upon the question of the weather in its relation to human activities. The method is for the most part inductive and consists of a comparison of the occurrence of certain data of conduct, under definite meteorological conditions, with the normal prevalence of those conditions. The study was made for the cities of New York, and Denver, Colo. The data considered were taken from the various public records of those cities and consist of misdemeanors in the public schools and penitentiaries, arrests for assault and battery (males and females considered separately), arrests for insanity, the death-rate, suicide, clerical errors in banks and strength-tests in the gymnasium of Columbia University. As a basis for the study, the mean temperature, barometer and humidity, the total movement of the wind, the character of the day and the precipitation, as recorded by the officers of the United States Weather Bureau, for each day of the period covered, are used. A study of school attendance is included in their work, and some conclusions drawn as to the influence of the weather upon the health of the pupils. The general conclusions arrived at in the paper are that those weather states which are physically energizing and exhilarating are accompanied by an unusual number of excesses in deportment and the minimum of deaths and mental inexactnesses, while the opposite meteorological conditions show the reverse effects.
Article
Research in both laboratory and field settings has suggested a link between thermal stress and violent behavior, and both linear and curvilinear models have been investigated. A dearth of field studies prompted the analysis reported here, which is based on data for some 10,000 aggravated assaults occurring the City of Dallas in 1980 (a summer of severe heat stress) and 1981. This analysis replicates and extends certain aspects of recent work by Anderson and Anderson (1984) relating to the so-called linear and curvilinear hypotheses. Thermal stress is measured in two ways: a Discomfort Index (DI), which takes into account the influence of humidity acting in concert with temperature, and ambient temperature. Regression analyses were performed in two stages. In the first, data for all neighborhoods and all days of the study period were combined into ambient temperature and DI models. At the second stage, models differentiated between the three levels of neighborhood socioeconomic status. With weekend controlled, DI and ambient temperature were significant independent variables in the ‘overall’ model and in medium and low status neighborhoods. However, when linear effects were controlled, the curvilinear measures were never significant. The analysis generally tended to confirm Anderson and Anderson's suggestion that a reduction of aggression with increasing temperature does not appear to occur within the normal range of temperatures. This analysis further suggested that the hypothesized curvilinear effect is weak, if not entirely absent, even during conditions of extreme heat.
Article
A “thermic law” postulating a relationship between violent crime and hot weather or southern climates is one of the oldest propositions in criminology. On the question of homicide and seasonality, modern research produces contradictory findings—some studies support a seasonal pattern of homicide but others reject such a pattern. A review of studies on the seasonality of homicide and an analysis of Uniform Crime Reports data and data on homicide in Baltimore from 1974 to 1984 are undertaken in order to resolve the issue. The contradictory results are not explained by differences in definitions nor by differences in data or methodology; nor are they explained on the bases of regional differences or an urban bias present in most studies. The nature of the question asked, however, is critical to the results obtained. The conclusion reached is that there is no season to homicide. The months of December, July, and August are significantly more likely to be among the months in which homicide is high for any given year, but the number of homicides during those months may not be significantly higher than in other months.
Article
Abstract Relations between human beings and the physical environment have been the foci of research and speculation for at least two millennia. One such focus has dealt with the relationships between climate and crime. This paper develops four hypotheses concerning the interaction between violent behavior and the thermal environment. These hypotheses relate to the structural density of local areas, alcohol consumption across the city, calendar effects, and neighborhood context. We developed a taxonomy of high-, medium-, and low-status residential areas (“neighborhoods”) in Dallas, Texas. These groupings formed the basis of several crosstabulations in which the relative frequency of aggravated assaults was the dependent variable. Neighborhood types differed markedly in the amplitude of their summer peaking of assaults, low-status neighborhoods having a peak not amenable to explanation entirely on the basis of month length or number of weekend days in the months. Assaults directly linked to alcohol sales establishments were less prominent than expected. Apartment-based assaults were heavily overrepresented in the low-status neighborhoods. Although findings reported here are exploratory and suggestive, they imply that giving greater attention to environmental influences in geographic contexts may be appropriate.
Article
A review of timc-period research on temperature and aggression led the authors to hypothesize that southern subculture and sociodemographic variables are responsible for geographical differences in I1.S. homicide rates. It was also hypothesized that temperature's correlation with nonhomicidal violencc would be stronger in small than large cities. These hypotheses were tested by obtaining cross-sectional data on I0 temperature indexes, 11 sociodemographic controls, percentage southern horn, and crime rates in more than 300 U.S. cities in 1990. Partial correlation analyses indicated that percentage southern born and sociodernographic variables rather than temperature predicted homicide rates. Moderator variable regression analyses indicated that relationships between temperature and nonhomicidal violence were stronger in small than large cities. The results are interpreted in terms of a social escapeiavoidance model of criminal behavior, which predicts that low as well as high temperatures lead co-offenders to avoid social contact.
Article
Based on routine activity (RA) theory, the authors hypothesized that crime rates would vary with both the type of crime and the type of holiday, with violent crimes occurring more frequently and property crimes occurring less frequently on major holidays that brought families together in the home. It was also hypothesized that minor holidays would have little or no impact on crime rates. These hypotheses were tested by subjecting data on calls for service in Minneapolis, Minnesota, in 1985, 1987, and 1988 to time series analyses. After controlling for time of day, day of week, month, four weather variables, the first day of the month, linear trend, and autocorrelation, regression analyses indicated that both violent and property crimes were significantly related to major (or legal) holidays, whereas neither type of crime was more likely to occur on minor holidays. Crimes of expressive violence were significantly more prevalent on major holidays, whereas property crimes were less frequent on those days.
Article
Rape and domestic violence are two of the most controversial types of criminal behavior. Both are violent crimes and both are usually directed towards women. This research examines the short-term effect of weather and temporal variations (time of day, day of week, holidays, etc.) on calls for police service in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The influence of these variables on domestic violence and rape is compared and it is found that the two types of crimes are affected in very different ways by the independent variables used. The results suggest that the occurrence of domestic violence is much more highly influenced by immediate temporal and weather variables such as time of day, day of week and ambient temperature. However, rape appears not to be as greatly affected by immediate situational conditions and contexts. Possible explanations for the findings and implications of the research are discussed.
Article
In the following supplement the author attempts, in an inductive manner, to throw some light upon the peculiar effects of weather conditions on mental states. The problem carried on is twofold: first, the tabulation and discussion of a questionnaire sent to nearly two hundred teachers, of all grades, from the kindergarten to the high school, superintendents of asylums and reformatories, and wardens of prisons and penitentiaries; second, an inductive study of several hundred thousand data of classes mentioned below, comparing the occurrence of data of the various classes studied, under definite meteorological conditions, with the normal prevalence of those conditions. The author notes that this paper, in its present form, comprises little more than half the material actually prepared for publication.
Article
An analysis of annual, quarterly, and monthly data for recorded crime in England and Wales yielded strong evidence that temperature has a positive effect on most types of property and violent crime. The effect was independent of seasonal variation. No relationship between crime and rainfall or hours of sunshine emerged in the study. The main explanation advanced is that in England and Wales higher temperatures cause people to spend more time outside the home. Time spent outside the home, in line with routine activity explanations for crime, has been shown to increase the risk of criminal victimization for most types of crime. The results suggest that temperature is one of the main factors to be taken into account when explaining quarter-to-quarter and month-to-month variations in recorded crime.
Article
An age and gender street quota sample of 576 respondents was interviewed using standard fear of crime questions. An equal number of interviews was conducted at the end of four consecutive seasons, and in two different cities. Responses indicate that a seasonal effect on the fear of crime cannot lightly be dismissed. Some implications for national crime surveying and for crime prevention evaluation research are tentatively suggested.
Article
The authors investigate geographical patterns of homicide in São Paulo, Brazil. The geography of crime in developing world cities has been an underresearched area in part because of the lack of good-quality, geocoded offence data. In the case of São Paulo the availability of a new digital police dataset has provided the opportunity to improve our understanding of its crime patterns. The authors report the testing of hypotheses about the spatial variation in homicide rates. This variation is explained by poverty, situational conditions determined by differences in land use, and processes that indicate links with the geography of drug markets and the availability of firearms.
Article
In this paper the examination of the modifiable areal unit problem is extended into multivariate statistical analysis. In an investigation of the parameter estimates from a multiple linear regression model and a multiple logit regression model, conclusions are drawn about the sensitivity of such estimates to variations in scale and zoning systems. The modifiable areal unit problem is shown to be essentially unpredictable in its intensity and effects in multivariate statistical analysis and is therefore a much greater problem than in univariate or bivariate analysis. The results of this analysis are rather depressing in that they provide strong evidence of the unreliability of any multivariate analysis undertaken with data from areal units. Given that such analyses can only be expected to increase with the imminent availability of new census data both in the United Kingdom and in the USA, and the current proliferation of GIS (geographical information system) technology which permits even more access to aggregated data, this paper serves as a topical warning.
Article
Two experiments were conducted to examine the influence of ambient temperature upon physical aggression. In the first, male subjects received either a positive or negative evaluation from a confederate and were then provided with an opportunity to agress against this person by means of electric shock. On the basis of previous research, it was predicted that high ambient temperatures (92-95 degrees F) would facilitate aggression by those receiving positive evaluations but actually inhibit such behavior by those receiving negative assessments. Results confirmed both of these predictions and also indicated that more moderate but still uncomfortably warm temperatures (82-85 degrees F) produced similar effects. The second experiment employed procedures similar to the first and examined the suggestion that administration of a cooling drink would reduce the impact of high ambient temperatures upon overt aggression. This prediction, too, was confirmed. The possible mediating role of negative affect with respect to the influence of ambient temperature and other environmental factors upon aggression was discussed.
Article
Archival data covering a 2-year period were obtained from three sources in order to assess relations among ozone levels, nine measures of meteorological conditions, day of the week, holidays, seasonal trends, family disturbances, and assaults against persons. Confirming results obtained in laboratory studies, more family disturbances were recorded when ozone levels were high than when they were low. Two-stage regression analyses indicated that disturbances and assaults against persons were also positively correlated with daily temperatures and negatively correlated with wind speed and levels of humidity. Further, distributed lag (Box-Jenkins) analyses indicated that high temperatures and low winds preceded violent episodes, which occurred more often on dry than humid days. In addition to hypothesized relations, it was also found that assaults follow complaints about family disturbances, which suggests that the latter could be used to predict and lessen physical violence. It was concluded that atmospheric conditions and violent episodes are not only correlated but also appear to be linked in a causal fashion. This conclusion, however, was qualified by a discussion of the limitations of archival data and concomitant time-series analysis.
Article
An analysis by the cosinor method of over 50,000 rapes in 16 different locations in the United States revealed statistically significant annual rhythms in 14 locations, with maxima in the summer. Changes in numbers of rapes and assaults showed similar seasonal patterns, suggesting that rape comprised a subcategory of aggressive behavior. In contrast, there was a virtual absence of seasonal changes in numbers of murders. A close relation emerged between assaults and rapes, on the one hand, and temperature, on the other, in different geographical locations. The authors hypothesize that human violence, just like aggression in nonhuman primates, is influenced by exteroceptive environmental factors.
Article
Some previous studies have reported seasonal or monthly variations in the occurrence of depressive syndromes. The present study was carried out in order to investigate seasonality in severity of depression. Toward this end, the authors measured the Zung Self-Rating Depression (ZD) and Anxiety (ZA) Scales scores in 104 consecutively admitted depressed patients between November 1983 and April 1985. The data were analyzed by means of spectral analysis of a single time series. Up to 47.9% of the variance in the weekly average of the ZD scores could be explained by two significant rhythms of 51 (circannual) and 7 weeks. Peaks in ZD scores were observed in April-May, with lows occurring in August-September. Up to 30.8% of the variance in the weekly average of ZA scores was explained by a circannual rhythm. Our results show that there is a true seasonality in the severity of illness of depressed subjects. There were significant correlations between the weekly average in severity of illness and the chronograms of suicide (positively) and homicide (negatively) occurrence in Belgium.
Article
No seasonality was discovered in homicide in Hong Kong. Weather variables were not associated with homicide rates.
Sazonalidade na criminalidade no Estado de São Paulo
  • T Kahn
Kahn, T. (2003). Sazonalidade na criminalidade no Estado de Sa˜o Paulo, Boletim CAP, 2, 21 Trimestre, Secretaria de Seguranc -a Pu´blica, Sa˜o Paulo.
Time use research in the social sciences