Discussion on oil peak and oil depletion

Abstract

The p redictio ns of pet roleum p roduction change and peak rely o n a p reconditio n t hat t he reserves and develop ment met hods are relatively unchanged , or t he change rate of oil p roductio n and t he maximum p roved reserves are fairly p rescribed. The estimation might be reliable in so me"clo sed systems"wit h t he above2mentio ned feat ures. However , fo r some"open systems"characterized wit h every unp redictable po ssibilit y , t hese estimations could be inaccurate or even mi sleading. In additio n , t he impact of social fac2 to rs on pet roleum p roduction should al so be considered in t he application of t he estimatio n. Hubbert , who p ropo sed t he p roduction peak t heo ry , was lucky eno ugh to co rrectly p redict America' s p roductio n peak of 196921971 peo riod in 1956 when t he oil sit uation was much simpler t han t hat of p resent days. Meanwhile , ot her estimatio ns about t he p roductio n peak were failed due to t heir blind2 ness to t he ever2changing technologies and enviro nment of t he pet roleum indust ry. The irony is t hat , quite co nt rary to t he p roduction peak and depletio n t heories , t he pet roleum p roduction has always been increasing during t he recent 20 year s. However , t hese t heo2 ries were widesp read t hrough media and induced concerns over pet roleum supply securit y. Thus , t ho se served as o ne of t he reaso ns fo r p ushing sky2high oil p rice.