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International trade has been seen as the "engine of growth" both for developing and developed countries. Since free world trade is not a realistic possibility, economic integration is seen as a move towards free trade, despite criticisms from some quarters. The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in the number of preferential trade agreements (PTA). According to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), at least 100 regional arrangements had been formed by the end of 1994, nearly a third of them in the previous five years. As a result of the proliferation of PTAs, the share of preferential trade has increased considerably in 1990s, with one estimate putting it at 42 percent of world trade between 1993 and 1997.
No. 2002/2 ISSN 1353-1506
Etem Karakaya and Andrew Cooke
September 2002
Etem Karakaya* and Andrew Cooke**
* Department of Economics, Adnan Menderes Universitesi, Turkey
** Department of Economics and Politics, The Nottingham Trent University
Address for correspondence: Dr. Andrew Cooke, Department of Economics, The Nottingham Trent University,
Burton Street, Nottingham, NG1 4BU, UK.
International trade has been seen as the “engine of growth” both for developing and
developed countries. Since free world trade is not a realistic possibility, economic integration
is seen as a move towards free trade, despite criticisms from some quarters. The last decade
has seen a dramatic increase in the number of preferential trade agreements (PTA). According
to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), at least 100 regional arrangements had been formed
by the end of 1994, nearly a third of them in the previous five years. As a result of the
proliferation of PTAs, the share of preferential trade has increased considerably in 1990s, with
one estimate putting it at 42 percent of world trade between 1993 and 1997.
1. Introduction
International trade has been seen as the “engine of growth” both for developing and
developed countries. As the World Bank (1991, p.7) notes:
When international flows of goods, services, capital, labour and technology have
expanded quickly, the pace of economic advance has been rapid. Openness to
trade, investment and ideas has been critical in encouraging domestic producers
to cut costs by introducing new technologies and to develop new and better
products. A high level of protection for domestic industry, conversely, has held
development by decades in many places.
Since free world trade is not a realistic possibility, economic integration is seen as a move
towards free trade, despite criticisms from some quarters.1 El-Agraa (1998) defines the term
economic integration as the discriminatory removal of all trade impediments between at least
two participating countries and the establishment of certain element of co-ordination and co-
operation between them.2 This definition implies elements of both free trade and protection.
The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in the number of preferential trade agreements
(PTA), due in part from the frustration arising from the delayed completion of the Uruguay
Round of multilateral trade negotiations. Moreover, politicians continue to discuss the
expansion of existing regional agreements to include more countries (e.g. the EU), as well as
the broadening and deepening of existing trade and investment liberalisation provisions (e.g.
APEC, the Asia Pacific Economic Council). According to the World Trade Organisation
(WTO), at least 100 regional arrangements had been formed by the end of 1994, nearly a third
of them in the previous five years. As a result of the proliferation of PTAs, the share of
preferential trade has increased considerably in 1990s, reaching 42 percent of world trade
between 1993-1997 (Grether and Olarreaga, 1998). It was estimated by Grether and
Olarreaga that Western Europe has the largest preferential trade share, with a 70 percent
average between 1988 and 1997. It was followed by the Western Hemisphere and Africa,
with a 25-26 percent average. Asia and Oceania, however, recorded very low values, which
were around 4 percent.
2. Theory of Customs Unions
2.1 Viner and Beyond
Prior to the seminal work of Viner (1950), it had been assumed that a move to a customs
union would be an unambiguously good thing for the world welfare, since it resulted in the
removal of some tariffs. In contrast, Viner demonstrated that the welfare effects from creating
a customs union depend on the net impact of trade creation and trade diversion.3
Viner’s work was the catalyst for developments by Meade (1955) and Lipsey (1957). By
allowing trade by many countries in many commodities, Meade highlighted the role of prices
and international terms of trade for achieving and maintaining equilibrium in international
trade and payments under economic integration agreements. Assuming fixed patterns of
production, Meade emphasised the effects of substitution in consumption. He showed how
the formation of a customs union could alter relative prices and as a result, change
consumption patterns, thereby leaving the volume of trade among countries to vary. Since
this may give rise to both trade expansion and trade contraction, an increase in welfare will be
possible only if there is a net increase in the volume of trade. The net effect on welfare would
depend on the level of pre-union tariffs and demand elasticities. In conclusion, Meade argued
that while trade creation in a customs union is welfare improving, a trade-diverting customs
union might or may not improve welfare depending on the factors mentioned above.
The major contribution of Lipsey (1957),4 was the introduction of the second-best theory into
the analysis of customs unions. The theory of second-best implies that reducing tariffs on a
discriminatory basis under a regional integration arrangement does not necessarily lead to a
welfare gain for individual countries or for the world as a whole as long as the discriminatory
barriers in other countries remain unchanged. Lipsey assumed that there is a unique second
best position in the economy. Although this position is not Pareto optimal, it could be a
Pareto improvement. He reached the same conclusion as Meade (1956) on the ground that a
trade diverting customs union might increase the welfare of the home country. Lipsey argued
that Viner had ignored the inter-commodity substitution in consumption. Trade diversion
does not necessarily entail a loss in welfare because of the change in the pattern of
consumption brought about by changes in relative prices in the domestic market of member
Earlier analyses of classical customs union theory assumed the home country to be an
importer. In addition to taking imports as main determinant in their trade creation and trade
diversion analysis, they also assumed that the rest of the world does not impose any tariff or
non-tariff barriers and there are no transport costs. As noted by Sodersen and Reed (1994),
considering the home country as an importer would only lead to losses from trade diversion
because it results in a worsening of its terms of trade. However, a partner country that is
treated as an exporter gains from trade diversion. Since each member of a customs union
will, in practice, be both an exporter and an importer, the losses through trade diversion on
imports might be matched by gains through trade diversion on exports. Wonnacott and
Wonnacott (1981,1992) provided a possible answer to this question by taking the export
argument for customs union in a highlighted two world obstacles to international theory:
foreign trade barriers and transport costs. Using the assumption of a tariff-ridden world,
Wonnacott and Wonnacott (1981,1992) demonstrated that there could be some welfare gains
from a customs union membership, which cannot be secured through unilateral non-
discriminating tariff reductions. These arise where the exporting member of the customs
union is a low-cost producer, which could not fully exploit its comparative advantage before
joining the customs union because of the tariffs imposed by other countries.
Regarding the overall welfare effects of a customs union, it is argued that even some members
of the customs union lose by joining the union, the welfare of the customs union as a whole
might still be positive if the other partner countries gains are substantially high and outweighs
the losses of the remaining members. By allowing transfer payments between countries,
Kemp and Wan (1976) argued that a customs union would always be welfare improving. Any
customs union is potentially favourable for all countries considering participation, since even
if there is loss, they can be compensated. Then, as the argument goes, customs union among
n members could be extended to n+1 countries, which implies that with expansion, there is an
incentive to form and enlarge the customs union until the world becomes a customs union.
Kemp and Wan also offered a theoretical perspective regarding the common external tariff
towards non-members. In what is popularly termed the Kemp-Wan theorem, they
demonstrated that a customs union can always find a common external tariff structure that
would make the rest of the world’s trade with the union just equal to its trade with home and
partner countries combined before the union. Thus, the rest of the world would not be worse
off as a result of the customs union. Therefore, any improvement to the welfare of the
member countries as a result of the customs union would add to world welfare. It also shows
that, in theory, it is possible to shift the world economy from tariff-ridden trade to free trade
through a series of Pareto-improving customs unions. However, Krugman (1990) pointed out
that the optimal CET should be expected to be higher than the pre-union tariff rates of the
member nations, given their increased market power derived from acting jointly. Hence,
Krugman (1990) argued that a customs union always provokes trade diversion, leading in all
likelihood, to a reduction of non-members' welfare and in some cases the world's welfare as a
In a recent study, Srinivasan (1997) used the Kemp-Wan theorem to offer different
approaches to define such tariff structure for a customs union, namely, as a consumption-
weighted average of pre-union tariffs and subsidies in members of the customs union.
However, as noted by DeRosa (1998), the Kemp-Wan theorem does not shed light into the
political-economy problem of reaching a consensus to establish such a common external tariff
and determine the transfer payments among the members.
2.2 The Introduction of Imperfect Competition
Classic customs union theory assumes an environment of perfect competition and constant
returns to scale in production. This assumption reflects the dominance of the classical and
neo-classical approaches of Ricardo and Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (H-O-S). However,
from the late 1970s, doubt was cast upon the ability of the orthodox theory to account for
actual patterns of international trade. This criticism was derived from the fact that, contrary
to H-O-S theory, the largest and fastest growing component of world trade since World War
II was between industrialised countries. Furthermore, the composition of trade was two-way
trade.5 As a result, the last two decades have experienced enormous explorations in trade
theory, which challenged the classical framework, to explain the actual patterns of recent
developments in world trade.
The pattern of production and trade is driven in part by relative factor prices (endowments)
and in part by economies of scale and scope. The first determinant will give rise to inter-
industry trade, for example, the exchange of unskilled labour-intensive goods for human
capital-intensive products. The more dissimilar are countries' endowments, the greater the
volume of trade will be. The second factor will generate intra-industry trade: the exchange of
similar manufactured products, with firms specializing in different varieties of similar goods,
and relying increasingly on foreign suppliers to provide intermediate inputs and components
used in their production process. The more similar are countries, the more important the latter
type of exchange becomes (Helpman and Krugman, 1985).
Grossman (1992) stated that the most important development in recent years came with the
advent of the so-called ‘new trade theories’. These incorporate imperfect competition and
economies of scale into the analysis of trade flows and trade policies. The role of economies
of scale as a determinant of trade was emphasised by Krugman (1979) and Lancaster (1980),
who independently provided a theoretical framework with which to analyse the motives that
determine intra-industry trade. Additionally, Brander (1981) developed a model that analyses
the rivalry of oligopolistic firms in each other’s market. Amongst other things, these studies
highlighted the importance of increasing returns to scale, which suggest that there will be
gains from trade even if two countries are completely identical in every aspect.
As noted by Baldwin and Venables (1995), the new wave of studies in economic integration
took its roots from these so-called ‘new international trade theories’, in which imperfect
competition plays a crucial role. In order to analyse these possible effects associated with
imperfect competition, it is necessary to take a closer look at the recent developments in the
theory, starting from the economies of scale as it by itself provides the core of the theory.
2.2.1 Economies of Scale
The argument that economic integration enables the exploitation of scale economies that
cannot be reaped in small national markets relies on the basic idea that mass production
reduces average costs per unit. However, this is a general argument for trade liberalisation or
for world-wide free trade. Inevitably, this depends on the type of product under focus and the
relative size of the national market when compared to the customs union’s market. Corden
(1972) showed that apart from the usual trade creation and trade diversion effects, there are
two supplementary effects to acknowledge: one positive, one negative. The positive result of
the customs union is the cost reduction effect. The customs union leads to cost reductions for
the quantity previously supplied for internal use (under prohibitive protection) by the most
efficient producer in the union. In addition, the home country supplies the other members of
the union, for which there is a trade creation effect. However, Corden argued that there could
also be a trade suppression effect6 whenever all the partner countries were importing all
consumption from non-members before the union (because there was no tariff or the latter
was not high enough to be prohibitive). After the customs union is created, the least
inefficient partner country might be able to begin producing simply because it now has all the
union's markets at the partner country’s disposal. This might be sufficient to have average
unit costs in the area to be smaller than the price-cum-common external tariff set by the
customs union. Thus, other member countries suffer from trade diversion in favour of the
exporting country. According to Healey (1995), the justification of the formation of the
customs union in the presence of economies of scale will depend on whether or not the net
welfare effect is a gain or loss, as there may be an additional social cost for the home country
arising from the abandonment of production in favour of the partner country.
Essentially, the inclusion of scale economies in the modern static theory of customs union
identifies the possibility that if there were unexploited economies of scale before regional
integration, these will increase concentration and firm scale for the firms in member countries
to produce greater quantities of either differentiated or homogenous products after the
customs union formation. Consequently, it could be expected that when trade preferences and
resulting shifts in demand are in favour of intra-regional trade, it is possible to lower output
prices as they not only capture but also create larger markets for their output at home and
2.2.2 Production Shifting
Baldwin and Venables (1995) held that formation of an economic integration tends to shift
production of the liberalised product into the tariff free area. With the large-group
assumption, which implies that each firm in the economy acts as if its market share were zero,
they argue that the volume of output in each country depends particularly on the number of
firms and the relative costs they face. The argument is that economic integration provides
member country’s firms a scale advantage over foreign producers, plus the opportunities to
expand market shares in domestic and in unprotected member country markets. By imposing
common external tariff towards non-members, a number of partner country firms would enter
into the union and non-member country firms would exit. This arises because more varieties
are now produced in member countries and because they benefit from free entry into each
other’s market, and there will be a reduction in prices of the product for the member countries
and a price increase for the non-members. This has the effect of expanding domestic
production in member countries and thereby increases welfare of the members at the expense
of non-member welfare. Helpman and Krugman (1989) refer to this as the home-market
effect. This effect is a feature of numerous other models, such as the geography model of
Krugman (1991c).
2.2.3 Pro-Competitive Effect
Under more complex specifications of market power and industry structure, allowing for
oligopolistic interaction between firms in the industry makes price cost mark-ups endogenous.
Pro-competitive effects may relate to increased scale economies and falling costs through the
mechanism by which economic integration changes price cost mark-ups.7 It is argued that, by
considering imperfect competition and economies of scale, economic integration might
successfully erode market power of dominant firms in member countries through market entry
of competing firms from other member countries. This mechanism operates as follows: if two
countries engage in trade liberalisation towards each others market, this will reduce the
dispersion of market share since firms gain exports and lose home market sales. It is further
claimed that the firms’ market shares at home are higher and they also enjoy high mark-up
pricing. Therefore, with the liberalisation, sales at home would be reduced and meantime
sales in export markets would be expanded (Baldwin and Venables, 1995). The pattern of
results suggests that the pro-competitive effects of trade liberalization, including falling
market power and expanded output in imperfectly competitive sectors, thereby reducing
average production costs, may be some of the most substantial effects following from trade
liberalization, for member countries.
Since Brander and Krugman (1983), firms’ ability to discriminate among markets, known as
market segmentation, has been central to many theoretical contributions in international trade
and regional integrations with imperfect competition. A number of studies tried to analyse the
potential effects of the 1992 Programme for industries focused on the effects of changing
from segmented national markets to a fully integrated European market as it capture the
effects of eliminating the numerous administrative barriers preventing consumers to arbitrage
products across markets.8 Market segmentation is the essential assumption of models of
trade based on imperfect competition since in the simplest versions of such models, the
possibility to price discriminate between markets is the only reason for trade.9
Finally, regarding the literature incorporating imperfect competition and economies of scale,
it is necessary to bear in mind that imperfect competing industries require complex
formulations and sometimes require rather restrictive assumptions. As noted by DeRosa
(1998), for instance, specification of demands for differentiated products is complex and
generally specific functional forms for individual or community preferences underlying
demand functions are adopted from other economic studies. Consequently, the results of the
studies will be based on such assumptions and restrictive techniques. Therefore, it could be
argued that these studies are relatively new and still needs to be developed to date.
2.3 The Growth Effect
The comparative static studies reviewed above simply compare two equilibrium positions
(before and after). They ignore the process by which the new equilibrium comes about,
involving such issues as changing capital stocks (human and physical), levels of industrial
concentration or technological innovation. Yet, it is argued that all of these may be
influenced by the formation of the customs union.
The standard argument that an economic integration can affect the rate of output growth is
realised through a faster growth of factor inputs, particularly return on investment in human
and physical capital, and through increases in the growth of total factor productivity (Baldwin
and Venables, 1995 and Romer, 1994). Baldwin and Venables stated that the former might be
transient and associated with the medium term effects, while the latter has permanent effect.
Recent theoretical work and empirical evidence suggest that regional economic integration
can provide an important stimulus not only to trade, but also to foreign direct investment
(FDI) within the region concerned. The experiences of Spain and Portugal (upon joining the
EC) and Mexico (following its decision to negotiate the NAFTA) suggest that joining a
regional economic integration scheme can provide an impetus to inward foreign direct
investment. This raises the question of whether these increases in incoming FDI affect the
flows of direct investment going to other potential host countries that did not offer the
advantage of belonging to the regional integration scheme concerned. Baldwin, Forslid and
Haaland (1995) suggested that the creation of the Single Market in the EU probably led to
investment diversion in the economies of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and
investment creation in the EU economies, the latter being particularly prevalent in Spain and
Portugal. Brenton (1996) also found that the EU Single Market programme led to a significant
increase in investment by EU firms in other EU countries in the late 1980s.
An important issue is whether economic integration fosters growth through changes in return
on investment among the countries concerned. In this context, factor accumulation may be of
crucial importance. Much of the effect of trade policy on growth may well work through the
domestic rate of physical investment, which is a determinant of economic growth in a nearly
tautological sense (Baldwin and Seghezza, 1996). Regional economic integration typically
encompasses reductions in regional trade barriers and investment restrictions. Baldwin and
Venables argued that factor prices in member and non-member countries could be affected
with economic integration. With the assumption of imperfect competition, this could result in
an increase in demand for capital, within the union and a decrease in it outside the union.
Assuming capital is perfectly mobile internationally, this will lead to investment inflows into
the region from non-member countries. These capital flows might lead to an increase in GDP
and consequently in GNP in member countries unless the capital owners remit their earnings.
Even if there is no capital inflows it is also possible that there could be growth effects that
occur as the initial gains in efficiency and output raise factor rewards and generate new
savings and investments that contribute further to output growth (Baldwin, 1989). Using a
related argument, Wacziarg (1997) argues that the extent of the market is an important
determinant of the degree of product market competition. The entry of new firms on export
markets, after an episode of liberalisation, may well entail large fixed investments. This points
to the rate of investment as a potentially important channel linking trade policy openness and
growth. However, Baldwin et al (1995) argued that it is also possible that integration will
produce investment diversion with investment being diverted from its most rational location
in the world economy to the integrating region because of the tariff discrimination produced
by integration.
As mentioned earlier, apart from medium term growth effects there is also the permanent
growth effect due to economic integration. The last effect that we consider stems from recent
literature on endogenous growth. Recently, a number of studies have addressed the long-term
effects of integration. Rivera-Batiz and Romer (1991), and Grossman and Helpman (1991)
analysed the growth effects of integration between similar countries (with respect to factor
endowment and technology). Rivera-Batiz and Xie (1993), and Coe and Helpman (1995)
addressed the growth-rate effects of integration between dissimilar countries with rather
different resource endowments.
It is argued that if knowledge spillovers are a driving force for sustained, long-run growth,
and open economies are more exposed to a worldwide stock of productivity by enhancing
knowledge, then technological transmissions can be a channel through which trade openness
affects growth and convergence (Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1997), Grossman and Helpman
(1991)). Coe and Helpman (1995) also found that there is some evidence that developing
countries’ total factor productivity is positively related to the access of technology and
knowledge embodied in imports from developed countries. Member countries could affect
output growth through its enhanced access to technology, which could improve productivity,
by two potential ways. First, more frequent and sustained trade interactions may make it
easier for domestic producers to imitate foreign technologies and to incorporate this
knowledge in their own productive processes (Edwards, 1992). This increased exposure can
stem from direct imports of high technology goods or from greater interaction with the
sources of innovation (through enhanced international communication and mobility brought
ahead by economic integration). Second, by providing an incentive to foreign direct
investment to locate and produce in countries of the union, it often leads to the direct
international transmission of advanced types of technology, either through capital goods
imports which are later imitated, or through the diffusion of know-how and expertise
(Winters, 1996).
2.4 Extensions to Customs Union Theory
2.4.1 Country Size and Natural Trading Partner
As can be examined in our proceeding analysis, most often, the theory of economic
integration assumes a ‘small’ home country, and a ‘large’ partner. That is, since the ‘‘home’’
country is assumed to be ‘small’ it is a price taker, either in trade with its partner to the
agreement or in its trade with the rest of the world. It is argued that being a small country,
unable to influence the terms of trade of partner countries in an economic integration, can be
of a distinct advantage. By examining the gains and losses associated with terms of trade and
volume of trade effects, when a small country forms or joins a regional integration,
Kowalczyk (1996) argued that the small country enjoys gains through its access to the trading
bloc, but the large partner might demand some transfer payments from the small member to
establish free trade. Schiff (1997) found that a small country joining a large regional
agreement could increase its welfare by reducing tariffs on imports from member countries
that is sufficiently large enough to satisfy a small country’s entire import demands at little or
no increase above the prevailing international terms of trade. In a more recent paper, Schiff
(1999) went further and argued that the ‘small’ home country is likely to gain more on its
exports to the ‘large’ partner. Since the ‘large’ partner is likely to continue to import from the
world market after the formation of economic integration, the partner charges a tariff on
imports from the world market, then, the home country is more likely to obtain an
improvement in its terms of trade by selling to the partner at higher tariff-inclusive price.
Krugman (1991a) took an alternative approach by focusing on countries, which are left out of
this process. He argued that a country that is excluded from a regional integration
arrangement might suffer significant welfare losses. It has also been claimed that it is better
for a small country to form or join a regional integration arrangement with a large country,
rather than with a smaller one. Rutherford, Rutstrom and Tarr (1993) found that Morocco, for
instance, would be better of by forming a regional integration arrangement with the EU rather
than with Algeria or Tunisia. The same results were found in the case of Chile, stating that
becoming a member of NAFTA would be better than becoming a member of MERCUSOR
(Schiff, 1996, Harrison, Rutherford and Tarr, 1997). Bhagwati and Panagariya (1996) and
Panagariya (1997), however, offered a systematic critique of some of these fundamental
propositions, by stating that the trade diversion involves heavier losses than the Vinerian
framework predicts. On the other hand, Michaely (1998) argues that their assumption holds
only when the home country is ‘ultra-small’.
Regarding the issue of ‘natural trading partners, it has been noted that one of the common
characteristics of recent trade agreements is that they are regional, as they have been
established by neighbouring countries (Ethier, 1996). Therefore, it has been suggested that a
trade agreement among the countries in a natural trading region could potentially result in
significant welfare gains. The natural trading bloc argument is explained either by the volume
of trade between potential partners or by the distance and transport costs between them. The
argument explaining the natural trading partner by the volume of trade originally started with
Lipsey (1960), who argued that the welfare gains in a customs union will be higher, the higher
the proportion of trade with the country’s union partner and the lower the proportion with the
outside world. More recently Summers (1991) argued that the countries forming a regional
integration would likely to gain larger welfare if they are large and trade disproportionately
with each other and geographically proximate as the risk of trade diversion will be minimal.
The argument that the distance and transport costs are crucial in explaining natural trading
partner, evolved from the work of Wonnacott and Lutz (1989). They argued that, ceteris
paribus, since proximity between regional integration arrangement members increases trade
between them (due to lower transport costs), it reduces the extent of trade diversion and
increases the benefits of regional integration.
In a similar vein, Krugman (1991a) offered an extreme example. In his analysis, the world
was divided into continents; assuming that the transport costs are zero in intra-continent while
they are non-zero in inter-continents. He argued that by precluding inter-continental trade, an
intra-continental integration agreement would produce larger welfare gains in the continent as
a whole. Krugman inferred the continent in this example of a ‘natural trading bloc’ for which
low trade costs made regionalism a natural and beneficial policy. Following on from
Krugman (1991a), by allowing transport costs non-zero, Frankel (1996) and Frankel, Stein
and Wei (1997) argued that since inter-continental transportation and business costs increase
relative to intra-continental ones, regionalism among proximate countries becomes a better
policy in welfare terms. By extending Krugman’s model, Bond and Syropoulos (1996) and
Kose and Reizman (1997) reached the same conclusion.
The argument that the natural trading partner can be defined in terms of volume of trade has
met criticism elsewhere.10 Panagariya (1997) argued that trade diversion is a marginal
concept and, therefore, has nothing to do with the initial level of trade between partner
countries. He also opposed Summers’ (1991) definition that Mexico and the USA are natural
trading partners since even Mexico’s main trade takes place with the USA, yet for the USA,
Mexico’s share in her trade is very small. Therefore, he concluded that the term ‘natural
trading partner’ couldn’t be associated with the initial volume of trade. Finally, even though
it is difficult to defend natural trading partner with the volume of trade argument, Schiff
(1999) argued that in the case of the distance and transport costs, natural trading partner
argument gains strong economic grounds.
2.4.2 Non-traditional Gains
As mentioned earlier, the last decade has witnessed a dramatic increase in regional integration
arrangements. Remarkably the initiatives for either forming or joining to a regional
integration came mainly from relatively small countries. Fernandez (1997) argued that
increase in recent regional integration arrangements could be not only because of ‘traditional
gains’, such as trade creation, economies of scale or growth effects etc, but also because of
generally not mentioned, as he called ‘non-traditional gains’. These possible non-traditional
gains can be categorised as follows11:
(a) Time-inconsistency
This suggests that regional integration with a large, rich and effective partner can be an
effective instrument of imparting credibility to reforms. Moreover, with such an agreement it
is guaranteed to ‘lock’ the reforms, which will make it difficult for protection-minded future
governments to reverse the actions of their predecessors.
(b) Insurance
This suggests that a regional integration arrangement can contribute to the welfare of its
members if it seen as providing at least one of them with insurance against possible future
events. Perroni and Whalley (1994) argued that the main motive of small countries is to
provide themselves with ‘safe havens’ by securing their access to larger country markets.
This agreement ensures the small country if the rich partner adopts a more protectionist stance
in the future, its access to the latter’s market will be preserved
(c) Bargaining Power
This suggests that becoming a member of a regional trading block subsequently increases the
bargaining power of the small country in multilateral trade negotiations. Fernandez (1997)
argued that this explanation is more appropriate for a customs union, which has a common
external tariff, since these countries should have a greater bargaining power combined than
had they negotiated separately. To illustrate the importance of regional integration in terms of
bargaining power, one has to look at recent multilateral negotiations in the WTO, which was
dominated almost entirely by the ‘Quad’ group (the EU, USA, Canada and Japan).
It is argued that these non-traditional gains from regional integration are of particular
importance in relation to investment which provided a basis for Mexico joining NAFTA, and
for Europe Agreements between CEEC countries and the EU. As noted by Fernandez (1997),
the incentive to invest, for both domestic and foreign investors, depends crucially not only on
current trade policies, but on future trade policies, the level of uncertainty, and the
macroeconomic and political environment, which could be affected by economic integration.
3. Quantitative Evaluations of Economic Integration
3.1 Introduction
Before evaluating the methodologies developed to measure the effects of economic
integration, it is useful to have a framework that categorises the possible sources of welfare
change in a liberalised country. Baldwin and Venables (1995) categorised the possible
changes, which may take place in a well-defined framework.
It is assumed that the welfare of the consumer can be represented by an indirect utility
function of v (p+t, n, E ); Where p is a vector of border prices, t is a vector of trade costs, n
is a vector depicting the number of products available in each industry and E is a vector which
represents total spending on consumption. Total expenditure equals the sum of factor income,
profit, and rent from trade barriers, minus investment. That is,
E= wL + rK + X[(p+t) - a (w,r,x)] +
tm - I [3.1]
In [3.1], L and K are the country’s supply of labour and capital, and w and r are corresponding
factor prices. The first two terms, wL+rk , give total income. The profit components are
given as the third term, where the economy’s production sector X is changed by domestic
prices and any derived tariff level, (p+t), minus average costs a(w,r,x). The fourth term,
represents trade rents received by domestic agent, where m is the net import vector and
is a
diagonal matrix that measures the proportion of the wedge t that creates income for domestic
agents when domestic agents receive full amount of trade rents x=I, and d=o for a barrier
where no trade rent is captured domestically (non DCR). Finally, the fifth term, I, represents
investment. In order to derive welfare effects of a regional integration agreement, Baldwin
and Venables (1995) totally differentiate the indirect utility function v and divide through by
the marginal utility function of expenditure12, that is
dV/VE =
t dm - m d[t-
t] - m dp
+ [p+t -a] dX -Xax dx + ( Vn / VE ) dn
+(r / p - 1)dI. [3.2]
As pointed out by Baldwin and Venables (1995), the first row of the equation represents
welfare effects that are captured in models with perfect competition. The first term associated
with perfect competition models is called the ‘trade volume effect’. This occurs when it
changes the volumes of trade dependent on the wedge created by DCR trade barriers,
t. The
second term in the first row is the ‘trade cost’ effect, which measures the change in costs
caused by change in the non-DCR elements of trade barriers. Finally, the third term in the
first equation is the ‘terms of trade’ effect.
The three terms in the second row represents welfare effects captured by models with
economies of scale and imperfect competition. The first term in the second row accounts for
the change in output when price differs from average costs (called the ‘output effect’). The
second term in the second row measures changes in average costs brought about by changes
in firm scale (‘scale effect’). The third term in the second row is called the ‘variety effect’
and depends on the changes in the number of differentiated products.
The third row is relevant to models that capture the growth effects of regional integration
through accumulation of factors. We shall refer these possible sources of welfare changes in
the liberalised economy when analysing the quantitative results of economic integration.
Attempts to measure economic integration, whether via a customs union or free trade area, are
generally categorised into empirical (econometric) or analytical. Empirical studies are
counterfactual, attempting to estimate what could have happened to trade in the absence of
integration. Analytical models, on the other hand, basically establish an economy-wide
theoretical structure. Studies using this approach are mainly based on ex-ante analysis and
rely heavily on the estimation of parameters borrowed from econometric studies which are not
directly related to free trade area or customs union. Since the late 1980s, analytical analysis
using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models has been dominant.
3.2 The Empirical Literature
Studies from the late 1950s to early 1980s were mainly empirical, with a heavy emphasis on
simple algebraic methodology to identify any difference in trade flows between the pre and
post-integration periods. Most of the empirical studies measured trade creation and trade
diversion in the context of the EC. The earliest studies adopting ex-post approach were mainly
using residual imputation method.
In these models, the integration is calculated as the difference between the actual level of
trade flows that integration had resulted in and the hypothetical level had integration not taken
place. In an early study, Williamson and Bottrill (1973) used such a methodology to estimate
that trade among the member countries of the EC was 50 percent higher in 1969 than would
have been the case without integration. In a similar vein, another study found that both
imports and exports in EFTA increased by 25 percent due to the free trade agreement in the
1959-1965 period (EFTA Secretariat, 1969).
Kreinin (1969) offered a simple way of measuring trade creation and trade diversion. His
empirical results suggested that for 1969/70, trade creation accounted for 14.8 percent of the
EC’s imports, while trade diversion amounted to 7.3 percent of total EC external imports.
Among the other most notable studies using the ex-post approach were Balassa (1967,1975),
who used income elasticities of demand for imports and the inspired assumption that higher
(lower) income elasticity values imply trade creation (trade diversion); Truman (1969), who
used trade share measures; and Aitken (1973), who investigated bilateral trade flows using
gravity modelling.
Earlier studies reveal a fair degree of agreement that trade creation outweighs trade diversion
in the case of EC integration. Disagreement arises only with respect to magnitude of this
difference. However, the net trade creation effect among these studies is relatively small.13
Winters (1987), for instance, estimated that the UK membership to the EC led to a welfare
gain from trade volume effect equal to 0.11 percent of UK GDP.
Apart from measuring trade creation and trade diversion, some empirical studies also
attempted to quantify the possible impact of economic integration on other variables,
including the distribution of gains among the member countries. Finally, recent empirical
studies in regional integration have attempted to measure the growth effects of economic
integration. Using time-series analysis, Coe and Moghadam (1993) estimated the long-run
output growth in France that could be attributed to increased trade integration with the EC. In
order to calculate this, an aggregated production function was estimated using co-integration
techniques. Their results suggested that 0.3 percent points of the French annual growth rate
for 1984-1991 period were attributable to EC integration. Similar results were obtained by
Italianer (1994). In contrast, Montenegro, De Melo and Panagariya (1992) used cross
sectional country data and concluded that regional integration has no growth effect. Similarly,
Henrekson et al (1997) found no significant differences between the effect of EC and EFTA
membership on economic growth. Baldwin and Seghezza (1996) found that cross-country
data reveal a rough correlation between the national total factor productivity growth rates and
the degree (and duration) of European integration. However, their explanatory regressions
proved inconclusive, finding almost no empirical support for trade-induced technology led
growth associated with European integration. However, it should be noted no firm
conclusions could be drawn regarding such studies on this literature as it is far from mature
and also new conclusions may emerge.
3.3 CGE Evaluations of Regional Integration
As regional integration arrangements spread, enlarged and deepened over the last decade, they
have posed challenges to economists with regard to estimating a wide range of possible
impacts of these trade agreements. It has been argued that the analysis of trade creation and
trade diversion is not well-suited to the study and quantifications of recent regional integration
arrangements as it neglects the importance of some major issues, including welfare effects,
the initial tariff level, market structure and growth effect (Kose and Reizman, 1998). Recent
analytical studies have started to employ computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to
allow for explicit analysis of the complex interaction of comprehensive policy changes that
would follow economic integration.
CGE models take account of the whole economy, including upstream and downstream links
between different sectors. There are a number of CGE approaches reflecting the number of
countries, sectors, and institutional detail. It is helpful to identify three generations of
models,14 described above, consistent with the three rows into which we classified welfare
effects in equation [3.2].
The main characteristic of first generation models is a perfectly competitive environment
under which each industry produces homogenous goods under constant returns to scale. In
contrast with the basic Vinerian approach, most of the first generation CGE models adopt the
Armington assumption, which assumes that consumers differentiate similar products by
country of origin (rather than assuming all goods are homogenous). Second generation
models, originating from the work of Harris (1984), allow for imperfect competition and the
possibility that production is subject to economies of scale. These types of models capture
output effect, scale effect and variety effect. Finally, third generation models allow for a
growth effect.
In the following sections, the CGE studies of regional integration will be reviewed for major
regional blocs, namely for the EU, NAFTA as well as for other developing countries, by
taking these three generation models in to account.
3.3.1 Evaluations of the EU
The EC’s own assessment of the impact of the internal market is encompassed within the
Cecchini Report (1988). It was important in a sense that it combines the results of several
different models of analysis in an original and innovative method. This project estimated the
impact of the removal of all trade barriers on internal trade, economies of scale, freedom to
provide services, public procurement etc. The official estimate of the Cecchini Report
suggested that the welfare gains would be between 4.3 percent and 6.4 percent of 1988 GDP,
creating up to five million new jobs in the medium term.
Central to the Cecchini Report was an influential partial equilibrium study by Smith and
Venables (1988). Many crucial general equilibrium models are based on this study. Their
model was calibrated with reference to ten particular industries in a world economy consisting
of six countries. The main characteristics of the model were to allow for imperfect
competition and economies of scale. Their results suggested that completing the internal
market was pro-competitive, leading to substantial increases in firm scale and bringing large
welfare gains from lower prices. These studies proved to be the catalyst for a number of
general equilibrium model analyses. Representative second-generation models can be found
in the work of Gasiorek, Smith and Venables (1992) and Haaland and Norman (1992). The
former study sought to analyse the welfare consequences of a reduction in trade barriers and
on the changes in production and trade flows with the rest of the world. Similar to the Smith
and Venables (1988) model, two types of policy experiment were considered; first a 2.5
percent reduction in intra-trade cost together with this policy experiment, and secondly, a
switch from market segmentation to market integration, which suggests firms no longer have
the option to price discriminate. The results suggested that a reduction in trade barriers would
have a positive effect on welfare. Yet, these gains are relatively modest. When the second
policy experiment was considered, the gains from completion of the internal market were
substantial. Intra-EC trade liberalisation had a pro-competitive effect and large gains arose
due to imperfect competition (see Table A.1).
Similar to the Gasiorek, Smith and Venables model, Haaland and Norman (1992) employed a
multi-country CGE model that focused primarily on the welfare implications of the EC-1992
programme on the EFTA countries. Haaland and Norman found that EC-1992 posed no threat
to the United States and Japan, whereas the losses for the EFTA countries, however, were
significant. Staying out of the EC would lead a 0.1 percent loss for EFTA. In line with the
Gasiorek, Smith and Venables model, Mercenier (1995) and Mercenier and Schmitt (1996)
focused on the importance of labour market conditions, and on the competitive situation in
goods market for the effects of integration for EC countries. These studies generally found
that EC-1992 has a pro-competitive effect. All these general equilibrium studies are static in a
sense that they assumed that firms adopt the same behaviour before and after integration.
In an extensive analytical study, Willenbockel (1994) employed a single-country CGE model
in order to analyse the welfare implications of the EC-1992 programme on the UK economy.
His model differs from previously discussed CGE models in a number of ways. First, unlike
the studies based on Smith and Venables (1988) model, his single country model was largely
built upon Harris-type model with additional considerations of recent developments in applied
general equilibrium modelling. Even though main attention of the study was the analysis of
imperfect competition and economies of scale, his study also considered an economic
environment where the production technology is assumed to exhibit perfect competition and
constant returns to scale. Therefore, Willenbockel’s (1994) study captures properties of both
first and second-generation models. His results demonstrated that EC-1992 programme would
lead to welfare gains for the UK economy. However, when compared to previous studies, the
gains are relatively small. In a similar framework, however, Karakaya (2001) found relatively
larger gains for Turkey in the case of Customs Union Agreement between Turkey and the EU
(see Table A.1).
In another study, Harrison, Rutherford and Tarr (1994, 1996) developed a multi-regional CGE
model that does not impose uniform pricing by firms across the EU markets. Their study
incorporated first, second and third generation models and found that with the first generation
model, welfare gains are relatively small. Incorporating increased competition within a
second-generation mode doubled welfare gains and with a third generation model, welfare
gains are increased further (see Table A.1).
A number of studies have been developed in order to analyse steady state and/or growth
effects of European integration within a CGE framework. By extending the model of Haaland
and Norman (1992), Baldwin, Forslid and Haaland (1995) employed a multi-country CGE
model to investigate the investment creation and diversion effect of the EC-1992 programme.
Using a third generation specification, they suggested that predicted income should be further
increased through an output multiplier. They estimated that, in terms of real income, the
difference between the included and excluded cases from EC-1992 programme is quite large
for EFTA countries, which is about 5.5 percent of GDP. Finally, Keuschnigg and Kohler
(1996) developed a dynamic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the welfare effects
of Austria’s membership of the EU. Apart from traditional reallocation effects, they also
measured expected capital accumulation, saving and income redistribution effects across
generations. Their results suggested that the welfare gains for Austria from joining the EU
would be equal to 1.24 percent of GDP (see Table A.1).
3.3.2 Evaluations of NAFTA
The prospect of a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) prompted the emergence
a number of CGE models in order to analyse the effects of trade liberalisation between
Canada, Mexico and the United States.15 Bachrach and Mizrahi (1992) used a CGE model
with first generation and third generation components. Assuming perfect competition and
constant returns to scale, they employed a 44-sector model to investigate the impact of a free
trade area between Mexico and the USA. In the first generation model, it was assumed that
the capital is perfectly mobile across the Mexican sectors, yet immobile internationally. They
found that the US aggregate real income rises by 0.32 percent and two-way trade increases by
about 4.5 percent. In the second experiment, it was assumed that capital is mobile
internationally and, furthermore, Mexico receives $25 billion additional investment from
abroad. With this additional investment (and using a third generation model) they estimated
US aggregate real income would increase by 0.4 percent and Mexican aggregate real income
to increase by 4.64 percent.
Most of the CGE models used in the NAFTA case are of the second-generation type,
beginning with the pioneering work by Harris (1984). By introducing imperfect competition,
Harris’ study suggested that gains for Canada, from liberalising the economy with the USA,
would be substantial. Extending Harris model, Cox and Harris (1992) employed a CGE
model of Canada to investigate the effects of a NAFTA on trade flows, real income, and
benefits to consumers, labour adjustment and aggregate welfare. The results suggested that
even though there are positive gains for Canada from NAFTA, the gains are small relative to
the Canada and the US Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) case.
Roland-Holst et al (1994) also developed a second-generation multi-country CGE model for
Canada, Mexico, the USA, and the rest of the world jointly determined at the 26-sector level
of aggregation. The model is calibrated to a detailed three-country Social Accounting Matrix
(SAM) estimated for the year 1988 for NAFTA members. Under different simulations, their
results showed North American trade liberalisation to be beneficial to the regional economies.
Under tariffs-only liberalisation welfare gains are small; when both tariffs and NTBs are
removed, the welfare gains are substantially higher.
Brown, Deardoff and Stern (1992) developed a four-region, 29-industry CGE model, with
both second and third generation characteristics. Their model structure was capable of
evaluating the comparative static effects of changes in trade policy on factor prices, economic
welfare, inter-sectoral allocation of resources and the international allocation of production.
They found that forming free trade between the three North American countries would
increase welfare. With their second-generation model, they estimated that Mexican welfare
increases by 1.6 percent of GDP. Whereas, the third-generation model (which included
capital flows into the model) the increase in welfare for Mexico reaches 5 percent of GDP.
The welfare gains for Canada and the USA are considerably smaller.
These studies for NAFTA demonstrate that despite the different approaches taken in the
studies, the results suggest unanimously that there are welfare gains for NAFTA countries,
albeit unevenly distributed. The greatest gains will be enjoyed by the Mexican economy,
while welfare gains for Canada and the United States were estimated to be very modest (See
Table A.2).
3.3.3. Evaluations of Regional Integration between Developing Countries
Although most regional integration arrangements have reflected initiatives among developed
countries, less-developed countries have also taken part in the recent wave of regional
integration arrangements, either by new or revitalised formation, with the most notable
examples in Southeast Asia and South American countries. These developments have
prompted a number of quantitative studies analysing the economic impacts of regional
integration among developing countries. It should be noted that CGE based analytical studies
for developing countries generally are typically of the first generation type, assuming perfect
competition among firms and production is subject to constant returns to scale.16
DeRosa (1995) investigated welfare implications of forming AFTA by assuming elimination
of pre-Uruguay Round levels of tariff and non-tariff barriers among the potential member
countries. The results suggested that AFTA is trade creating on a net basis, and larger gains
are provided with the removal of NTBs (See Table 4.3). In recent studies, evaluations of
MERCOSUL have also gained considerable attention.17 Flores (1997) investigated welfare
implication of the completion of the MERCOSUL, using a seven–region nine-sector
equilibrium model that operates under imperfect competition assumption. The paper
examined three scenarios ranging from increased world regionalism to an optimistic
multilateral situation. The results suggested that MERCOSUL lead to welfare improvement
for the members, providing larger gains for Uruguay. However, Flores’ results revealed
smaller gains for MERCOSUL countries compared to other studies, for instance Hinojosa-
Odeja et al (1997). Harrison, Rutherford and Tarr (1997) evaluated some alternative policy
options for Chile in a multi country multi sector first generation CGE model. Chilean
accession to MERCOSUL or NAFTA is represented by reductions in tariff and non-tariff
barriers to intra-bloc trade. The results suggested that while forming a regional integration
arrangement, either as free trade area or customs union, with MERCOSUL, there will be
welfare losses for Chile, however, joining NAFTA would improve Chile’s welfare due to
improved access to the larger markets.
Table A.1: Quantitative Studies of regional integration arrangements: European Union.
Source: DeRosa (1998) and own contributions
Study Investigators
Study Description,
Base Year
Sectors Countries Change in Economic
Gasiorek, Smith, and Venables
II. generation model.
Ex ante study using a
computable general
equilibrium (CGE) model of
imperfect competition with
differentiated products,
increasing returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows.1985.
13 manufacturing goods sectors,
plus 2 non-manufacturing
sectors. Capital is mobile
between countries, but labour
by 4 skill types is assumed
EC North
Greece, Ireland
Rest of the world
Haaland and Norman (1992) II. generation model.
Ex ante study using a CGE
model similar to the GSV
(1992) model of imperfect
competition with
differentiated products,
increasing returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows.1985.
12 manufacturing sectors plus 1
non-traded goods sector. Capital
is internationally mobile, but
labour by 2 skill types is not.
Harrison, Rutherford, and Tarr –
II. and III. generation model.
Ex ante study using a CGE
model of imperfect
competition with
differentiated products,
increasing returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows. 1985.
26 sectors, 12 of which are
manufacturing sectors. Primary
production factors, including
capital and different types of
labour, are mobile across
sectors domestically but
internationally immobile.
Rest of the World
Willenbockel (1994)
I and II generation models
Ex ante study using a CGE
model of imperfect
competition with
differentiated products,
increasing returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows. 1985.
29 sectors, 18 of which are
manufacturing sectors. Primary
production factors, including
capital and labour, are mobile
across sectors domestically but
internationally labour is
immobile while capital is
Rest of Europe
Rest of the world
Keuschnigg and Kohler (1996)
III generation model, Ex ante
study using a dynamic CGE
model of imperfect
competition with
differentiated products
increasing returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows. Capital
accumulation is assumed,
10 sectors. Primary production
factors, including capital and
labour, are mobile across
sectors domestically and
Austri a
Table A.2: Quantitative Studies of regional integration arrangements: NAFTA
Study Investigators
Study Description,
Base Year
Sectors Countries Change in Economic
Bachrach and Mizrahi (1992) Ex ante study using CGE
models of perfect competition
for Mexico and USA with
differentiated products,
constant returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows. 1988.
36 traded sectors plus 8
services sectors. Primary
factors of production
include capital, labour,
energy resources
United States
Rest of the World
Brown, Deardorff, and Stern
Ex ante study using a
computable general
equilibrium (CGE) model of
imperfect competition with
differentiated products,
increasing returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows.1989
23 traded goods sectors
and 6 nontraded goods
sectors. Capital and labour
are perfectly mobile
between sectors but
internationally immobile.
United States
Rest of the World
Roland-Holst, Reinert, and
Shiells (1992,
Ex ante study using a CGE
model of imperfect
competition with
differentiated products,
increasing returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows. 1988.
26-sector aggregation,
with 20 tradable goods
sectors. Capital and labour
are domestically mobile
between sectors but
internationally immobile.
United States
Rest of the World
Source: De Rosa (1998) and own contributions
Table A.3: Quantitative Studies of regional integration arrangements: Developing
Study Investigators
Study Description,
Base Year
Sectors Countries Change in economic welfare
DeRosa (1995)
Ex ante study using a CGE
model of perfect competition
with differentiated products,
constant returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows. 1988.
27 sectors including a
nontraded sector. Capital is
specific to individual
sectors, while labour is
mobile between sectors.
All primary factors are
internationally immobile.
Rest of the World
Flores (1997) Ex ante study using a
model of imperfect competition
with differentiated products,
increasing returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows patterned
after GSV (1992). 1990.
9 sector with 5 sectors
identified as imperfectly
competing. Capital (and
labour) are mobile
domestically and within
Rest of the World
Harrison, Rutherford, and
Tarr (1997)
Ex ante study using a CGE
model of perfect competition
with differentiated products,
constant returns to scale, and
inter-industry flows. 1994.
24-sector aggregation,
including 3 nontraded
goods sectors. Primary
factors (capital, labour,
and land) are domestically
mobile across sectors, but
are internationally
Mercosur Accsn.
Chile – Mercosur
Argentina - Mercosur
Brazil - Mercosur
U.S. - Nafta
Rest of World
Nafta Accession
Chile – Nafta
Argentina – Mercosur
Brazil - Mercosur
U.S. - Nafta
Rest of World
Chile - to 8%
Chile - to 0%
Source: De Rosa (1998) and own contributions.
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1 See Panagariya (1996 and 1998) and Winters (1996) in the context of multilateralism versus regionalism.
2 For a detailed discussion see El-Agraa (1998) and Jovanovic (1992).
3 Trade creation occurs when the high cost domestic output of one member is replaced by the importing of
lower-cost production from another member. Trade diversion arises when more efficiently produced foreign
tariff-ridden imports to the domestic economy are, following the creation of a customs union, replaced by less
efficiently produced production from a supplier from within the customs union.
4 Work which evolved from Lipsey and Lancaster (1956).
5 See Krugman (1991a, 1991b).
6 For trade suppression effects see also Robson (1987) and Pomfret (1988)
7 For a detailed and more technical analysis see Baldwin and Venables (1995).
8 See, for instance, Smith and Venables (1988) and Haaland and Wooton (1992).
9 See Brander (1981) Brander and Krugman (1983).
10 See for instance Bhagawati and Panagariya (1996), Panagariya (1997) and Schiff (1996, 1999).
11 For a detailed analysis for ‘non-traditional’ gains see Fernandez (1997).
12 For a formal detailed analysis, see Baldwin and Venables (1995).
13 For an earlier review of studies relating to EC integration see Winters (1987).
14 The classification of CGE models in regional integration studies is taken from Baldwin and Venables (1995).
15 For an extensive literature surveys on NAFTA see De Rosa (1998) and Froncois and Shiells (1994).
16 DeRosa (1998) extensively surveyed quantitative studies for developing countries. Interested readers should
refer to this study.
17 Apart from Flores, see also Hinosjosa-Ojeda (1997).
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Financial liberalization together with the globalization led countries to constitute economic integration in form of preferential trading area, free trade area and customs union especially since 1980s. European Union, which has been at the stage of Economic and Monetary Union, is one of the biggest and most advanced economic integration models in the world. This study examines the effects of European Union-Turkey Customs Union on Turkish foreign trade between 1995-2011 by using static analysis and Balassa index. We found that there was trade creation effect and no trade diversion effect of the Customs Union. Moreover Turkey increased its comparative advantage on 50 product classes and lost its comparative advantage on 17 product classes, while Turkey sustained its comparative advantage on 188 product classes relative to European Union after establishment of the Customs Union.
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Zarys problemu Tradycyjna literatura przedmiotu postulowała podział efektów procesu integracji gospodarczej na statyczne (krótkookresowe) oraz dynamiczne (długookresowe). Współczesna teoria integracji przyjmuje za Baldwinem (Baldwin i Wyplosz 2004) podział na efekty alokacyjne, lokalizacyjne oraz akumulacyjne (w zakresie wzrostu gospodarczego). Zgodnie z postulatami neoklasycznej teorii wzrostu utworzenie regionalnego ugrupowania integracyjnego, jak każda inna zmiana polityki gospodarczej, nie ma wpływu na tempo wzrostu produktu krajowego brutto per capita w długim okresie. Tym samym teoria neoklasyczna odrzuca występowanie długookresowego efektu akumulacyjnego integracji gospodarczej. Należy jednakże podkreślić, że teoria neoklasyczna dopuszcza występowanie średniookresowego efektu wzrostowego integracji jako efektu przyspieszonej akumulacji kapitału fizycznego na skutek indukowanej procesem integracji zmiany ogólnego poziomu produkcyjności. Zwolennicy nowych teorii wzrostu postulują natomiast, że proces integracji gospodarczej może wywierać trwały wpływ na wzrost gospodarczy poprzez różnorodne kanały oddziaływania. Kierunek efektu wzrostowego jest jednak nieokreślony. W zależności od specyficznych uwarunkować egzo- jak i endogenicznych danego ugrupowania, państwa bądź regionu, proces integracyjny może mieć ujemny, neutralny lub dodatni efekt wzrostowy. Innymi słowy może prowadzić albo do spowolnienia albo do przyspieszenia długookresowego tempa wzrostu PKB per capita względnie nie wywiera żadnego istotnego wpływu. Hipotezy Główną tezą pracy jest stwierdzenie, że proces integracji gospodarczej poprzez różnorodne kanały wpływa na tempo wzrostu gospodarczego państw członkowskich regionalnego ugrupowania integracyjnego. Prowadzi to do trwałej zmiany długookresowej stopy wzrostu realnego PKB per capita względnie oddziałuje na tę stopę w średnim okresie – w tym przypadku wpływ integracji ma wyłącznie charakter przejściowy. Tym samym proces regionalnej integracji gospodarczej wiąże się z występowaniem efektu akumulacyjnego w rozumieniu Baldwina, czyli z efektem wzrostowym. Obok hipotezy głównej stawiam następujące hipotezy pomocnicze:  kierunek efektu akumulacyjnego (wzrostowego) nie jest jednoznaczny tzn. w zależności od uwarunkowań efekt wzrostowy może być pozytywny (dodatni), neutralny względnie negatywny (ujemny).  kierunek efektu wzrostowego, jak i jego siła uzależnione są od specyfiki danego ugrupowania integracyjnego oraz od charakterystyki samego procesu integracji, w tym zwłaszcza procesu pogłębiania się, czyli przechodzenia na wyższe etapy, jak i procesu poszerzania się ugrupowania w wyniku kolejnych akcesji.  w sytuacji znaczącej heterogeniczności struktur gospodarczych państw tworzących ugrupowania integracyjne z dużym prawdopodobieństwem efekt wzrostowy będzie miał charakter asymetryczny. Asymetryczność efektu wzrostowego może prowadzić zarówno w kierunku stymulowania konwergencji w ramach ugrupowania, jak i do dywergencji.  charakter efektów wzrostowych uzależniony zarówno od czynników leżących w zasięgu oddziaływania polityki gospodarczej, jak również od czynników zewnętrznych, takich jak wahania światowej gospodarki czy całkowicie egzogenicznych np. położenia geograficznego w ramach ugrupowania. Cel pracy Celem niniejszej rozprawy doktorskiej jest weryfikacja postawionych powyżej hipotezy głównej oraz hipotez pomocniczych poprzez analizę wpływu procesu regionalnej integracji gospodarczej w ramach Unii Europejskiej na tempo wzrostu gospodarczego jej państw członkowskich w okresie 1960-1999. Wybór Unii Europejskiej jako przedmiotu analizy nie jest wyborem przypadkowym – złożyło się na to kilka czynników. Po pierwsze, Unia Europejska, a dokładnie jej pierwszy filar, w ramach którego dokonuje się integracja w wymiarze gospodarczym, jest obecnie najbardziej zaawansowanym przykładem regionalnej integracji gospodarczej wywierającym realny wpływ na globalne procesy gospodarcze. Proces integracji gospodarczej w ramach UE ma już przeszło 50 lat (jeżeli uwzględnimy powstanie Europejskiej Wspólnoty Węgla i Stali), co potencjalnie umożliwia analizę długookresowych konsekwencji procesów integracyjnych na wzrost. Ponadto, stopniowe pogłębianie się procesu oraz poszerzanie się składu państw członkowskich ugrupowania pozwala na realną weryfikację postawionych hipotez pomocniczych. Po drugie, przy wyborze UE kierowano się kryterium dostępności danych – w przypadku państw UE oraz państw o podobnym poziomie rozwoju skupionych w OECD dostępnych jest najwięcej, najbardziej wiarygodnych danych za tak długi okres czasu. Po trzecie, akcesja Polski do UE w 2004 roku w naturalny sposób skłania do analizy procesów wzrostowych ugrupowania, którego staliśmy się pełnoprawnym członkiem. Pomimo świadomego ograniczenia analizy do okresu 1960 – 1999, a tym samym wyłączenia z niej nowych państw członkowskich, wnioski odnoszące się do tzw. „starych” państw członkowskich w dużym stopniu mogą mieć konsekwencje dla Polski, jak i pozostałych 9 „nowych” państw członkowskich Unii Europejskiej. Metoda i założenia badawcze W niniejszej rozprawie wykorzystywanych jest szereg metod badawczych. Po pierwsze, są to różnorodne metody empiryczne: od prostych metod opisu oraz wnioskowania statystycznego, w tym zwłaszcza weryfikacji hipotez statystycznych, po metody ekonometryczne: estymację modeli przekrojowych oraz różne metody estymacji przekrojowo-czasowych modeli panelowych, w tym dynamicznych modeli panelowych. Po drugie, jest to analiza krytyczna teoretycznej, jak i empirycznej literatury przedmiotu. Konstrukcja pracy Praca zawiera cztery rozdziały. Rozdział pierwszy przedstawia ogólne uwarunkowania występowania efektu wzrostowego regionalnej integracji gospodarczej. W rozdziale omówione zostają w pierwszej kolejności najważniejsze postulaty dwóch dominujących współcześnie szkół wzrostu gospodarczego: neoklasycznej oraz tzw. nowych teorii wzrostu. Następnie zaprezentowane zostają wyniki dużej liczby badań empirycznych weryfikujących różnorodne determinanty wzrostu gospodarczego. Ponadto, w rozdziale przybliżone zostają, istotne z punktu widzenia celu rozprawy, elementy teorii integracji gospodarczej, w tym zwłaszcza w zakresie potencjalnych efektów w zależności od etapu zaawansowania procesu integracji. Rozdział kończy omówienie specyficznych uwarunkowań integracji gospodarczej w ramach Unii Europejskiej, których nieuwzględnienie prowadziłoby do znaczącego obciążenia wyników analiz empirycznych. Rozdział drugi zawiera przegląd i analizę krytyczną wybranych modeli teoretycznych poświęconych efektom wzrostowym procesu integracji gospodarczej. Rozdział kończy synteza dotychczasowych prac teoretycznych. Na postawie analizy krytycznej wyprowadzone zostają definicje efektów wzrostowych procesu regionalnej integracji gospodarczej sensu stricte oraz sensu largo. Rozdział trzeci zawiera przegląd i analizę krytyczną dotychczasowej literatury empirycznej poświeconej weryfikacji występowania efektów wzrostowych procesu integracji gospodarczej. Zasadniczym celem rozdziału jest wyciągnięcie wniosków dla właściwego ukierunkowania własnych analiz empirycznych, zidentyfikowanie czynników wpływających na potencjalne obciążenie analizy oraz wskazanie obszarów problemowych w niewystarczającym stopniu zaadresowanych w dotychczasowej literaturze empirycznej. Rozdział kończy synteza dotychczasowych prac empirycznych. Przedmiotem rozdziału czwartego jest próba bezpośredniego, jak i pośredniego zidentyfikowania efektu wzrostowego procesu integracji gospodarczej w ramach Unii Europejskiej. W kolejnych podrozdziałach przechodzimy od opisu próby danych, zasadniczych faktów i wykorzystywanych zmiennych integracyjnych do weryfikacji empirycznej wykorzystującej metody statystyczne oraz metody estymacji ekonometrycznej modeli przekrojowych, przekrojowo-czasowych modeli panelowych oraz dynamicznych modeli panelowych. Rozdział kończy zestawienie porównawcze wyników otrzymanych przy wykorzystaniu odmiennych podejść badawczych. Rozprawę kończy podsumowanie.
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There is an important basic similarity underlying a number of recent works in apparently widely separated fields of economic theory. Upon examination, it would appear that the authors have been rediscovering, in some of the many guises given it by various specific problems, a single general theorem. This theorem forms the core of what may be called The General Theory of Second Best. Although the main principles of the theory of second best have undoubtedly gained wide acceptance, no general statement of them seems to exist. Furthermore, the principles often seem to be forgotten in the context of specific problems and, when they are rediscovered and stated in the form pertinent to some problem, this seems to evoke expressions of surprise and doubt rather than of immediate agreement and satisfaction at the discovery of yet another application of the already accepted generalizations.
Though the theory of preferential trading had its birth in Jacob Viner's (1950) celebrated work for the Carnegie Endowment, The Customs Union Issue, the first complete general-equilibrium model of preferential trading was provided by James Meade (1955) in the de Vries Lectures, delivered at the Netherlands School of Economics while the Benelux union was in progress and published as The Theory of Customs Unions. Remarkably, at a time when two-good models dominated the thinking of international trade theorists, Meade constructed a complete three-good, three-country model and even went on to extend it to a multicountry, multicommodity context. The model has proved as durable as Viner's concepts of trade creation and trade diversion with Lipsey (1958, chaps. 5–6, 1960), Mundell (1964), Vanek (1965, Appendix), Corden (1976), Collier (1979), McMillan and McCann (1981), and Lloyd (1982) making significant contributions to its further development. Insights emerging out of the model have also shaped the policy debate on regional integration (see Bhagwati and Panagariya, 1996a). Peter Kenen has much in common with Meade. Like Meade, he has the unusual distinction of having advanced both branches of international economics: pure trade and finance. Those of us who had the opportunity to sit through his lectures on international trade can also recall his clever use of geometry, as was done by Meade (1952) in A Geometry of International Trade.
This text was originally published in 1950 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It sets the framework for the contemporary debate over the benefits or otherwise of preferential trading agreements such as the European Union, NAFTA, and APEC. The book developed the concepts of trade creation and diversion in this work as the author pioneered the analysis of the global politics of trade agreements. This revival of this classic work includes an introduction that places this book in the context of the author's intellectual development and the economic and political situation of the post-WWII world. The introduction also traces the reception of the work and discusses its continuing relevance for international economists, political scientists, and historians.
Introduction Part I: Customs Union 1.Introduction 2.Static Model 3.Dynamic Model 4.Optimum Partners for a Customs Union 5.Free Trade Area 6.Distributions of Costs and Benefits 7.Non-Tariff Barriers 8.Conclusion Part II: Common Market 1.Introduction 2.Mobility of Labour 3.Mobility of Capital 4.Conclusion Part III:Economic Union 1. Introduction 2.Monetary Policy 3.Fiscal Policy 4. Industrial Policy 5.Regional Policy 6.Social Policy 7.Council for Mutual Economic Assistance Part IV: Measurement of the Effects of International Economic Integration 1.Introduction 2.Quantitative Models 3.Conclusion Part V: Conclusion
Recent regional initiatives have been addressed from a Vinerian perspective of trade creation and trade diversion. This is true of both policy-oriented economists, who tend to be critical of the initiatives, and theorists, who have added dynamic and game-theoretic elements to the Vinerian structure. This paper describes the stylized facts of much recent regional integration and develops an alternative model. The analysis suggests that regional integration, far from threatening multilateral liberalism, may in fact be a direct consequence of the success of past multilateralism and an added guarantee for its survival.
PART I: Historical and Institutional Background 2. Evolution of the Most-favored Nation Principle up to 1929. 3. Commercial Policies in the Thirties. 4. Non-discrimination in the GATT. 5. BOP-motivated Discrimination 1947-58 PART II: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Discriminatory Trading Arrangements 6. Theoretical Analysis I - the "Mainstream" from Viner to the JCM Proposition. 7. Theoretical Analysis II - Extending the Model. 8. Empirical Studies PART III: The Political Economy of International Discrimination 9. Why do Discriminatory Arrangements Exist. 10. Consequence for the International Trading System 11. Summary and Prospects.
The successful pursuit of North American economic integration, beginning with the Autopact between the US and Canada, has been under way for more than 25 yr. The motivations for seeking agreement have varied with each stage, ranging from an initial desire to settle the US-Canadian dispute over automobile industry market shares to the sweeping economic development ambitions of the current Mexican government. An observer cannot avoid being struck by the intense political discussions in the US over the proposed addition of Mexico to a North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), as compared to the near US indifference to the 1987 US-Canada agreement. This was the case despite the considerably smaller trade flows involved between the US and Mexico. Our purpose is to identify some of the important issues in analysing the economic impact of a NAFTA and to provide some quantitative estimates of the effects of the elimination or reduction of trilateral tariffs, nontariff barriers and investment restrictions between Mexico, Canada, and the US that might be implemented following the negotiation and legislative approval of an agreement. -from Authors