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Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows

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Melanie Luehrmann at Royal Holloway University of London
Melanie Luehrmann
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Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between demographic change and international capital flows using a large cross-country time-series dataset. The analysis provides empirical evidence of a substantial and twofold demographic effect on international capital flows: First, capital flows are induced by changes in present demography. Countries with a large working-age population tend to be net exporters of capital, relatively younger economies importers of capital and extremely aged countries with a major population share of elderly also tend to import capital. In particular, high youth dependency induces current account deficits. Second, the paper provides evidence that future demographic changes are anticipated and affect current net capital flows, too. This twofold demographic effect on international capital flows can be hampered by capital controls and other capital market frictions. The impact of these frictions is also explored in the paper. The results indicate that they indeed affect capital flows.
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mea
–
Mannheimer Forschungsinstitut Ökonomie und Demographischer Wandel
Gebäude L 13, 17_D-68131 Mannheim_Sekretariat +49 621 181-2773/1862_Telefax +49 621 181-1863_www.mea.uni-mannheim.de
Demographic Change, Foresight and International
Capital Flows
Melanie Lührmann
38-2003
November 2003
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year
Asia Europe
Latin America Northern America
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Latin America Northern America
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Graphs by name
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Discussion Paper Series
Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging Universität Mannheim
To order copies, please direct your request to the author of the title in question.
Nr. Autoren Titel Jahr
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03
... The age structure of a population affects key macroeconomic variables such as the labor supply, savings and consumption ratios, or current account balances (e.g., Lührmann 2003, Bertelsmann Stiftung 2010, Yoon, Kim, and Lee 2014, Aksoy et al. 2019) (Figure 1). In the following, we discuss whether the different demographic and economic development stages in aging industrial countries and in demographically young, less-developed economies can complement each other in generating long-term economic growth and prosperity for both sides. ...
... By investing its income surpluses in developing and emerging economies with a young age structure, a growing or large labor force, and higher economic growth potential, an aging society can benefit from the population structure and the economic-development potential. At the same time, these FDIs can help cover the investment needs of young, underdeveloped economies and promote their economic and social development through investments in education, infrastructure, technology, or the labor market (see also Lührmann 2003). If coordinated properly and favorably supported by effective measures to support private investment (e.g., export credit guarantees and investor-state-dispute settlement provisions), this could create a win-win situation for industrialized and developing countries alike. ...
... Insofar as the FDIs of aging societies contribute to the economic development of today's demographically young economies, these recipient economies could then, at a later stage in their demographic and economic development, invest their income surpluses resulting from their current account surpluses in the "old" societies that once invested in them. This is an attractive prospect for recipient economies as they age because old economies, which are characterized by a higher demand for capital and reduction in national savings, will feature rising interest rates (Bertelsmann Stiftung 2010;Yoon, Kim, and Lee 2014;Lührmann 2003), higher returns, and capital income. For old economies, this import surplus would, in turn, mean they do not have to reduce their own capital stock and could instead expand it even further through net investments. ...
AGING SOCIETIES Policies and Perspectives Aging SocietieS Policies and Perspectives
Chapter
Full-text available
  • Dec 2019
Population aging has become a global concern for most economies due to the implications it has on labor market dynamics and economic development. Aging results in increased expenditure on health and welfare services, yet the labor force shrinks and is unable to match available labor market opportunities, with detrimental results for production and productivity. Internal policy solutions such as increasing the retirement age and increasing working hours have proved unsuccessful in many countries. There is therefore a need for comprehensive policy actions that integrate internally oriented and externally oriented solutions such as revision of migrant labor and tap into social capital policies.
View
... This, in turn, influences the supply and price of capital, prompting crossborder capital flows in the form of FDI, stock purchases, cross-border loans, and interregional investments. Empirical evidence provided by Melanie (2003) [18] indicates that demographic changes play a substantial role in international capital flows, leading to capital transfers between countries. The differences in age composition among regions prompt capital transfers between countries. ...
... This also leads to a decline in the capital return rate in the home country, resulting in a preference for capital flows to regions with higher returns. Moreover, Melanie (2003) [18] conducted a study using data on population and capital flows from different countries to provide empirical evidence that capital tends to flow from countries with aging populations to countries with younger population structures in order to obtain higher returns. ...
Does the Aging of the Chinese Population Have an Impact on Outward Foreign Direct Investment?
Article
Full-text available
  • Sep 2023
Given the progression of population aging in China, does the diminishing demographic dividend boost the promotion of investment abroad in the form of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI)? This empirical study focused on the influence of population aging on outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) decisions and its underlying mechanisms. The research found that population aging has a significant positive effect on the level of OFDI. This effect is particularly pronounced in the eastern and central regions, while not statistically significant in the western region. Furthermore, population aging has a significant impact on the factor cost effect and the technological progress effect. The former is characterized by increased labor costs, while the latter is associated with technological advancements. The study confirmed that population aging positively influences OFDI changes through these two mechanisms. The empirical results hold statistically significant after multiple robustness checks. This study holds a significant reference value in advancing the facilitation of high-level opening-up polices and policy coordination to effectively address the challenges posed by population aging.
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... However, Börsch-Supan et al. (2002) proved that the pressure on a drop in real interest rates due to savings surplus could be moderated by capital outflow to demographically young economies that offer higher marginal productivity of the capital. The effects of expected demographic changes on the price and yield of capital assets are, therefore, significantly influenced by the foreign capital mobility of rational agents (Luhrmann 2003). Different effects of population aging on the rate of savings and investment and subsequent changes in the current account of the balance of payments and foreign capital inflow were analyzed by Higgins (1997). ...
Population aging and structural over/underinvestment
Article
Full-text available
  • May 2023
Demographic characteristics are mostly considered one of the most important structural factors influencing the equilibrium rate of investments and capital-to-output ratio. Current research does not identify structurally over/underinvested countries reflecting future population aging the countries face up in near decades. Using the implied equilibrium approach, the article analyzes structurally over/underinvested economies in the panel of 154 countries from 2005 to 2017. It verifies whether structural over/underinvestment is related to the expected aging of the population represented by the United Nations’ prediction of the old dependency ratio. The results show that the predicted future old-age dependency ratio determines the rate of capital accumulation. It also indicates that identified extent of overinvestment is distinctly larger than the extent of underinvestment and that the frequency of over/underinvested countries declines with a longer horizon of demographic prediction. A set of long-term and medium-term structurally over/underinvested countries is identified that might help the economic policymakers adopt adequate measures to make the capital optimally used. The robustness checks confirm that the estimations are not significantly influenced by potential endogeneity, choice of alternative demographic variables representing population aging, and alternative country’s institutional quality characteristics.
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... Considering the institutional aspects of capital mobility as given in a short time (Luhrmann, 2003), two supply-side constraints influence the size and structure of foreign capital inflow to a low-income country. First, sustainability of a country's net international investment position determines the size of foreign capital that does not break external solvency conditions following Obstfeld and Rogoff (1994) and Milesi-Ferretti and Razin (1996). ...
Asymmetric effects of foreign capital on income inequality: The case of the Post-China 16 countries
Article
  • Sep 2022
This study empirically tests for the heterogeneous effects of foreign capital inflow on income distribution, measured by the Gini index, in the Post-China 16 (PC16) countries between 1995 and 2017. In the benchmark model, we apply fixed- and random-effects models. As an alternative model, we use a dynamic panel model based on the Arellano–Bond estimator and autoregressive distributed lag model. We investigate the effects of total foreign capital inflow and individual types of foreign capital (foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and other investments), including their equity and debt subcategories. Our results show that the foreign capital inflow to the PC16 countries offers economic benefits only to specific income groups. FDI does not have statistically significant effects on income inequality, but portfolio investment makes income distribution more heterogeneous, and other investments reduce income differences. In addition, we find that income differences are increased by debt-type FDI and portfolio debt investment. In the short run, the effects of debt-type FDI, portfolio debt investment, and other investment inflows are significantly reduced. Finally, debt-type FDI increases income inequality more in countries with higher gross domestic product and human development index values, whereas the poorest and least developed countries use the debt portfolio capital such that it increases income inequality.
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... In addition, demographic change also has significant effects on capital flows and trade balance. Lührmann (2003) has shown that economies with high and rising elderly dependency ratios can register net capital inflows and trade deficits. ...
Threshold Effect of Globalization on Democracy: the Role of Demography
Article
Full-text available
  • Dec 2020
The literature presents conflicting expectations about the effect of globalization on democracy. One view expects globalization to enhance democracy, a second argues that globalization obstructs democracy; a third argues that it does not necessarily affect democracy. In this paper, we consider the threshold effect approach to reconcile these different results. We study the role of demography in the determination of the relationship between globalization and democracy. Based on a panel of 97 countries for the period 1993–2013, we use a threshold panel model (Hansen 1999) as well as a dynamic threshold panel model (Kremer et al. 2013) to estimate the effect of globalization on democracy, taking into account the demographic structure of the country. We find evidence of a threshold effect of demographic characteristics on the relationship between globalization and democracy and prove that the impact of globalization on democracy is regime specific. Our results show a positive impact of globalization associated with “early demographic transition regime” and a negative impact for countries with “late demographic transition regime.” Our results remain robust to alternative measure of democracy.
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... This hypothesis gives relevance to sociodemographic variables and their tendency since people close to the average should be the ones that save the most. Empirical evidence confirms this, since countries with a greater proportion of young people and the elderly within the population tend to save less (Luehrmann, 2003), and in parallel, the national social security network, pension funds, and the capital market development alters savings and credit patterns, as they affect this intertemporal allocation of resources (Samuelson & Nordhaus, 2010). Furthermore, human capital (education, training and technological literacy) is increasingly being pointed out in the theoretical and empirical literature for its bidirectional effect on financial inclusion (Holzmann, 2010), while firm characteristics such as their size or age (Focarelli and Rossi, 1998) are used in empirical studies, but have little presence in the theoretical field, perhaps due to the difficulty of isolating them from other factors, such as the institutional framework or the degree of development. ...
International financial inclusion: Multidimensional determinants of access to saving and credit*
Article
Full-text available
  • Dec 2019
This work assesses quantitatively the determinants of two of the main indicators of financial inclusion: savings account ownership and credit access. Through the use of a dynamic panel, this work verifies that on the supply side, formal saving requires an infrastructure to access these services, as well as palliatives to the asymmetric information in the financial sector, while on the demand side, the education and the stability of income sources of its potential users are crucial. In order to move to a more comprehensive financial inclusion by taking a formal loan, even though access to this infrastructure is still relevant, its effect is decreasing. Therefore the national educational level and Credit Information Societies acquire relevance, as well as the employment vulnerability, which affects eligibility and the commitment that indebtedness entails. The significance of certain cultural traits in the credit static panel warns that, although financial inclusion can be promoted through standards vetted internationally, its effectiveness cannot be separated from the social context where they are implemented.
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... Stemming from Higgins and Williamson (1997) and Higgins (1998), they find that countries with relatively young populations are capital importers, whereas the aging population will deteriorate the current account. Following research support this finding; e.g., Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000), Brooks et al. (2003), Lührmann (2003), Callen et al. (2006), Gudmundsson and Zoega (2014). However, the existing empirical literature ignores the general equilibrium condition of the global current account balance, i.e., the current accounts for all countries sum up to zero 1 . ...
Three Essays on Early Retirement, Demographic Structure, and International Capital Flow
Article
  • Aug 2019
My dissertation consists of three chapters, which study the relationship between early retirement, demographic structure, and savings, international capital flows in developing countries, especially in China. The first chapter studies the role of early retirement and pension system as drivers of China's persistent high savings. The main findings are that the early retirement effect contributes to the majority of the growth and fluctuation in the saving rate while both early retirement effect and wealth substitution effect have a positive impact on the saving rate. The second chapter, accounting for the facts that the global current account balance must be equal to zero, re-examines the impact of demographic change on the current account balance. The main finding of this paper is that the young dependency ratio has a robust and significant negative impact on the current account but the old dependency ratio has an ambiguous and insignificant impact on the current account under the general equilibrium condition. The last chapter examines studies the role of early retirement and pension system reform as drivers of China's persistent high savings and current account surplus with the aid of an opened-economy model. The results show that, the dominant early retirement effect coupled with the wealth substitution effect can increase the household’s savings. The current account surplus is due to the high savings and the domestic firms have financial borrowing friction to access domestic investment. The earlier and earlier actual retirement age finally results in the growing saving rates and current account surplus under the restriction of domestic investment.
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... Indeed, most studies show that countries with a higher share of young and old people within the population tend to save less. However, as mentioned above, this phenomenon is more prominent in cross-sectional analyses than time-series analyses, because demographic variables change very slowly (See Agrawal & Sahoo & Dash, 2009;Bosworth & ChodorowReich, 2007;Kim & Lee, 2008;Li & Zhang & Zhang, 2007;Lührmann, 2003). ...
Investigation of Turkish Tourism Sectors’ Financial Performance by Vertical Analysis Method: A Research on BIST Tourism Companies and CBRT Company Accounts (Türk Turizm Sektörünün Finansal Performansının Dikey Analiz Yöntemiyle İncelenmesi: BİST Turizm Şirketleri ve TCMB Sektör Bilançoları Üzerinde Bir Araştırma)
Article
Full-text available
  • Apr 2017
The main purpose of this study is to analyze and exhibit the financial performance of tourism companies which publicly traded in Borsa İstanbul (BIST) and to make comparison with tourism company accounts by using vertical analysis method. In this study, it is examined that the financial statements of publicly traded tourism companies in Borsa İstanbul and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Accommodation and Food Service Subsector company accounts for 2014 by using vertical analysis method. As a result of analysis, it is determined that BIST tourism companies have more property, plant and equipment than accommodation and food service subsector. In addition, it is determined that tourism companies use mainly equity by financing their property plant and equipment. In the context of income statement, it is specified that tourism companies and subsector have almost same percentage of cost of sales and administrative expenses. Except that, while period profit of subsector %5, three of BIST tourism companies make loss. Besides that other seven tourism company have highly profit margin than accommodation and food service subsector. In this context, it is found that non-operating income or loses have more portion than sales in publicly traded tourism companies by generate profit or loses. Özet Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, hisseleri Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören turizm şirketlerinin dikey analiz yöntemi ile finansal performanslarını ortaya koymak ve turizm sektörü ile bir karşılaştırma yapmaktır. Çalışmada, hisseleri Borsa İstanbul’da (BIST) işlem gören turizm şirketlerinin 2014 yılına ait finansal tabloları ve Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB)’nın yayımladığı konaklama ve yiyecek hizmeti faaliyetleri alt sektörünün 2014 yılına ait finansal tabloları dikey analiz yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda halka açık turizm şirketlerinin sektörün geneline göre daha yüksek oranda maddi duran varlığa sahip olduğu saptanmıştır. Ayrıca turizm şirketlerinin maddi duran varlıklarını özkaynaklarla finanse ettiği belirlenmiştir. Gelir tablosuna bakıldığında ise halka açık turizm şirketlerinin genel olarak sektörle benzer yüzdelerde satışların maliyeti ve genel yönetim giderlerine sahip oldukları görülmüştür. Ancak sektörün %5 civarında bir dönem kârına sahip olduğu gözlemlenirken BİST turizm şirketlerinin üç tanesinin zarar ettiği, diğerlerinin ise sektöre göre çok daha yüksek kâr oranına sahip oldukları saptanmıştır. Buna göre halka açık turizm şirketlerinin dönem kârı ya da zararının oluşmasında satışlardan çok faaliyet dışı gelir ve giderlerinin payının olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.
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... Indeed, most studies show that countries with a higher share of young and old people within the population tend to save less. However, as mentioned above, this phenomenon is more prominent in cross-sectional analyses than time-series analyses, because demographic variables change very slowly (See Agrawal & Sahoo & Dash, 2009;Bosworth & Chodorow-Reich, 2007;Kim & Lee, 2008;Li & Zhang & Zhang, 2007;Lührmann, 2003). ...
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Rebalancing Asia’s growth
Chapter
  • Mar 2009
The region’s large and persistent current account surpluses are an integral part of the global imbalances underlying the current global financial crisis. Well before the outbreak of the current financial crisis, the region may have been paying a heavy price for its output–expenditure imbalance. This price includes not only welfare costs associated with consuming too little, but also opportunity costs arising from failure to use savings productively. Thus, rebalancing growth is fundamentally in developing Asia’s self-interest.
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The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will be
Article
  • Apr 2003
Germany still has a very generous public pay-as-you-go pension system. It is characterized by early effective retirement ages and very high effective replacement rates. Most workers receive virtually all of their retirement income from this public retirement insurance. Costs are almost 12% of GDP, more than 2.5 times as much as the U.S. Social Security System. The pressures exerted by population aging on this monolithic system, amplified by negative incentive effects, have induced a reform process that began in 1992 and is still ongoing. This paper has two parts. Part A describes the German pension system as it has shaped the labor market from 1972 until today. Part B describes the reform process, which will convert the exemplary and monolithic Bismarckian public insurance system to a complex multi-pillar system. We provide a survey of the main features of the future German retirement system introduced by the so called “Riester Reform” in 2001 and an assessment in how far this last reform step will solve the pressing problems of the German system of old age provision.
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The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows
Article
  • Jan 2001
This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political autonomy of the central banks in emerging market and developing countries. Our analysis confirms that greater CBA has on average helped to maintain low inflation levels. The paper identifies four broad principles of CBA that have been shared by the majority of countries. Significant differences exist in the area of banking supervision where many central banks have retained a key role. Finally, we discuss the sequencing of reforms to separate the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies. IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 263–296. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.25; published online 23 September 2008
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Building a Panel on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe 03 33-03 Florian Heiss Wie groß soll die Schwankungsreserve der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung sein
  • 34-37
  • Axel Börsch-Supan
  • Hendrik Jürges
  • Share Oliverlipps
Axel Börsch-Supan, Hendrik Jürges, OliverLipps SHARE: Building a Panel on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe 03 33-03 Florian Heiss Wie groß soll die Schwankungsreserve der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung sein? 03 34-03
Anette Reil-Held and Christina Benita Wilke How to make a Defined Benefit System Sustainable: The " Sustainability Factor
  • 38-41
  • Axel Börsch-Supan
Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held and Christina Benita Wilke How to make a Defined Benefit System Sustainable: The " Sustainability Factor " in the German Benefit Indexation Formula 03 38-03
Joachim Winter Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multicountry simulation model 03 29-03 H.-M. von Gaudecker Carsten Weber Surprises in a Growing Market Niche: An Analysis of the German Private Annuities Market 03
  • 30-33
  • Axel Börsch-Supan
  • Alexander Ludwig
Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multicountry simulation model 03 29-03 H.-M. von Gaudecker Carsten Weber Surprises in a Growing Market Niche: An Analysis of the German Private Annuities Market 03 30-03