Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

ArticleinPopulation and Development Review 26(15) · January 1999with8 Reads
Source: RePEc
Abstract
A central question for empirical economics, particularly economic growth, is which explanatory variables to include and exclude in the regressions. This paper aims to identify variables strongly correlated with provincial income growth in the Philippines by applying robustness procedures in determining which variables are strongly correlated with income growth. The extreme bound analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) were applied to fifteen determinants of income growth from a data set consisting of 74 Philippine provinces for the period 1985 to 2003 to test which among the explanatory variables are strongly correlated to growth. The tests show that among the fifteen variables, five variables stand out as being robust. The log of initial income, the ARMM indicator, the expenditure GINI and its square and the proportion of young dependents are all considered as strongly correlated to growth.
    • "Получило широкую известность такое явление, как демографический бонус/дивиденд, представляющий собой высокую долю населения трудоспособного возраста и низкий коэффициент демографической нагрузки (невысокую долю населения в нетрудоспособных возрастах, как малолетних, так и пожилых) (Bloom, Canning, Sevilla, 2003). Широкую известность получили исследования, показавшие значительную роль демографического дивиденда в экономическом чуде восточноазиатских стран (Bloom, Williamson, 1998; Bloom, Canning, Malaney, 2000). Напротив, отсутствие демографического бонуса и высокий коэффициент демографической нагрузки из-за многочисленности детских и молодежных когорт обусловило, как отмечалось выше, примерно 2/3 экономического отставания Тропической Африки от остального развивающегося мира (Ndulu et al., 2007). "
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Целью настоящей монографии является систематическое изучение текущей демогра- фической ситуации в странах Тропической Африки, степени и механизмов воздействия демографической динамики на процессы социально-политического и экономического разви- тия и модернизации в данном регионе и потенциала влияния различных сценариев демогра- фического будущего на перспективы развития и социально-политической стабильности стран региона в предстоящие десятилетия. Авторами разработана серия компьютерных мо- делей социально-демографической динамики для африканских стран с самыми высокими рисками социально-демографической дестабилизации на основе выявленных закономерно- стей динамики рождаемости в этом регионе и особенностей влияния ряда показателей раз- вития на динамику рождаемости. С использованием разработанных моделей выявлены ос- новные модифицируемые управляющие параметры, воздействие на которые будет способст- вовать ускорению демографического перехода в отстающих странах, и значения этих пара- метров, необходимые для избежания социально-демографического коллапса либо сущест- венного снижения его рисков. При помощи разработанной системы компьютерных моделей социально-демографических процессов построена серия сценарных прогнозов развития стран Тропической Африки с учетом динамики основных демографических показателей. Это позволило авторам выработать и предложить систему практических рекомендаций относи- тельно того, какие меры нужно применять, чтобы достичь значений управляющих парамет- ров, необходимых для избежания катастрофического сценария либо реализации оптимально- го сценария развития в странах с наивысшей степенью социально-демографических рисков.
    Full-text · Book · Jan 2017
    • "However, man cannot effectively play this central role in an economy if he is not in good health. It is in this light that many authors in recent years like Bloom and Canning [37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50]underlined that the health of a person is primordial for the attainment of high economic growth. This is because sick people cannot study well, cannot produce many and quality goods, their cognitive development might be low, etc. "
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The goal of this paper is to measure the contribution of public health investments to the economic growth of Cameroon. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was the econometric model used in the estimations. The data used are annual and the period is from 1988 to 2013. The results of the estimations show that public health investments do contribute to the economic growth of Cameroon only in the long run. This implies that public health investments boost economic growth in the long run through effiient allocation of resources. Hence, it is recommended that: fist, the government should increase its health investments to 10 or 15 percent of its GDP as recommended by the AU and WHO respectively; second, to enhance the provision of health care services by the private sector and third, to ameliorate the quality of health care services rendered by granting competitive awards to health units that render quality health care services.
    Full-text · Article · Sep 2015
    • "Moving away from general intuitions of higher population being problematic for economic growth (Coale, Hoover 1958 ), recent literature has highlighted a potentially positive two-way relation between population age-structure and economic growth, with East Asia's success cited as an example (Bloom et al. 1999; Bloom et al. 2011; Prskawetz et al. 2004; Bloom et al. 2011). Declines in dependency ratio – the proportion of population in the 0-14 and 65+ age-groups (dependents) 3 visà-vis those in the working-age group of 15-64 years – lead to economically favorable population age-structures, and given supportive policies enhancing employability prospects, countries could experience higher growth. "
    Full-text · Technical Report · Sep 2015
    • "However, man cannot effectively play this central role in an economy if he is not in good health. It is in this light that many authors in recent years like Bloom and Canning3738394041424344454647484950 underlined that the health of a person is primordial for the attainment of high economic growth. This is because sick people cannot study well, cannot produce many and quality goods, their cognitive development might be low, etc. "
    Article · Jan 2015
    • "pulation can also matter for economic growth. The age structure of the population is largely determined by the stage of a country in the demographic transition from high to low fertility levels (see Bloom et. al., 1999). This implies that a higher ratio of workers per capita leads to a higher steady state level of income per capita in the long-run. Bloom et. al., (1999) argued that the model specified above indicates that demographic variables only matter in the accounting sense as no change is predicted in workers per capita and, consequently, no impact on income per capita if population growth leaves the ratio of workers to total population unchanged. The authors, thus, contended that a rapidly growi"
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: This study seeks to investigate if unemployment has been persistence and further examines the effect of population growth on the persistence level of unemployment in Nigeria. Consequent upon these, we trace the impacts that both portends for development outcomes in Nigeria for the period 1970-2012. The technique of analysis is the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound test for long-run impacts and equilibrium conditions while we re-parametised the model for short-run impact analyses. We found evidence for hysteretic unemployment in Nigeria and that population growth does not play a role in the persistence of unemployment (hysteresis) in Nigeria. More so, our results show that age structure does not matter for development outcomes and that Nigeria is not yet undergoing demographic transition. Interestingly, the results further show that unemployment is a causal factor for population growth. While population growth serves as demographic gift for development outcomes in the short-run, it 526 impacts negatively, albeit negligibly, on development outcomes in the long-run situation. We, therefore, recommend policies and programmes that will improve on the absorptive capacity, engender entrepreneurial abilities and promote prudent economic resources in Nigeria.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2015
    • "A long life span is a frequently used indicator of health, wellbeing and efficient workforce. Barro (1996), Barro and Lee (1994), Bloom and Malaney (1998), Bloom et al. (2000), Bloom et al. (1999, Gallup and Sachs (2000), Bhargava et al. (2001), Bloom et al. (2004, van Zon and Muysken (2005), Jack and Lewis (2009), Weil (2007 investigated the relationship between health and economic growth using life expectancy. The researchers found that an improvement in health has a positive and significant effect on output. "
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to research probing the underlying role human capital plays on economic growth in 1985-2011 for 17 developed and developing countries. Firstly, we examined the determinants of human capabilities and formulated a new human capital index (comparative human capability index). Secondly, we analyzed the relationship between human capital and economic growth using the endogenous growth model. Results of the panel cointegration tests support a long-run positive relationship between human capital and economic growth in both developed and developing countries, however, our results show that human capital is more effective in developed countries than in developing countries.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2015
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