Article

A method for upscaling soil parameters for use in a dynamic modelling assessment of water quality in the Pyrenees

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Abstract

Dynamic modelling of hydrochemistry is a valuable tool to study and predict the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and to assess the effects of confounding factors (such as delayed soil response and changing climate) that cause hysteresis during reversal from acidification. The availability of soil data is often a limitation for the regional application of dynamic models. Here we present a method to upscale site-specific soil properties to a regional scale in order to circumvent that problem. The method proposed for upscaling relied on multiple regression models between soil properties and a suite of environmental variables used as predictors. Soil measurements were made during a field survey in 13 catchments in the Pyrenees (NW Spain). The environmental variables were derived from mapped or remotely sensed topographic, lithological, land-cover, and climatic information. Regression models were then used to model soil parameters, which were supplied as input for the biogeochemical model MAGIC (Model for Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) in order to reconstruct the history of acidification in Pyrenean lakes and forecast the recovery under a scenario of reduced acid deposition. The resulting simulations were then compared with model runs using field measurements as input parameters. These comparisons showed that regional averages for the key water and soil chemistry variables were suitably reproduced when using the modelled parameters. Simulations of water chemistry at the catchment scale also showed good results, whereas simulated soil parameters reflected uncertainty in the initial modelled estimates.

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... Thus, the projections that foresee a progressive acidification recovery of the surface waters due to the decrease in industrial activity, which peaked during the 1960s to 1980s in this region (e.g. Camarero et al., 2009b), are not applicable in the high-elevation NVC. ...
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... It is known that scale effects pervade the hydrological sciences have been widely accepted. Although a number of methods have been presented to upscale site-specific parameters' properties to a regional scale (Lluís et al., 2009), it is still unclear whether these approaches would be suitable for some geochemical systems. A certain sensitivity analyses of the parameters related to the groundwater model has offered a rough estimate of the significant of input parameters in evaluating the target element concentrations (EPA, 1998). ...
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... Soils from the Pyrenees were sampled in 21 catchments in subalpine and alpine areas. Th e catchments were distributed along the whole mountain range covering a wide range of elevation (1845–2900 masl), slopes, and aspects, and therefore including diff erent climatic conditions, vegetation coverage, and lithologies (Camarero et al., 2009a). Granites and slates are the most common bedrocks in the Pyrenees, but limestone also occurs in the central and western areas. ...
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... It is widely accepted that scale effects pervade the hydrological sciences (Barry et al., 2002). Although some methods (Lluís et al., 2009) have been presented to upscale site-specific parameters' properties to a regional scale, it is still unclear whether these approaches would be suitable for complex geochemical systems with the nonlinear process. ...
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Following the decline in sulphur deposition in Europe, sulphate dynamics of catchments and the reversibility of anthropogenic acidification of soils and freshwaters became of major interest. Long-term trends in sulphate concentrations and fluxes in precipitation/throughfall and freshwater of 20 European catchments were analysed to evaluate catchment response to decreasing sulphate deposition. Sulphate deposition in the catchments studied declined by 38-82% during the last decade. Sulphate concentrations in all freshwaters decreased significantly, but acidification reversal was clearly delayed in the German streams. In Scandinavian streams and Czech/Slovakian lakes sulphate concentrations responded quickly to decreased input. Sulphate fluxes in run-off showed no clear trend in Germany and Italy but decreased in Scandinavia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The decrease, however, was less than the decline in input fluxes. While long-term sulphate output fluxes from catchments were generally correlated to input fluxes, most catchments started a net release of sulphate during the early 1990s. Release of stored sulphate leads to a delay of acidification reversal and can be caused by four major processes. Desorption and excess mineralisation were regarded as the most important for the catchments investigated, while oxidation and weathering were of lesser importance for the long-term release of sulphate. Input from weathering has to be considered for the Italian catchments. Sulphate fluxes in German catchments, with deeply weathered soils and high soil storage capacity, responded more slowly to decreased deposition than catchments in Scandinavia and the Czech Republic/Slovakia, which have thin soils and relatively small sulphate storage. For predictions of acidification reversal, soil characteristics, sulphur pools and their dynamics have to be evaluated in future research.
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The MAGIC model of the responses of catchments to acidic deposition has been applied and tested extensively over a 15 year period at many sites and in many regions around the world. Overall, the model has proven to be robust, reliable and useful in a variety of scientific and managerial activities. Over the years, several refinements and additions to MAGIC have been proposed and/or implemented for particular applications. These adjustments to the model structure have all been included in a new version of the model (MAGIC7). The log aluminium ? pH relationship now does not have to be fixed to aluminium trihydroxide solubility. Buffering by organic acids using a triprotic analog is now included. Dynamics of nitrogen retention and loss in catchments can now be linked to soil nitrogen and carbon pools. Simulation of short-term episodic response by mixing fractions of different water types is also possible. This paper presents a review of the conceptual structure of MAGIC7 relating to long-term simulation of acidification and recovery, describes the conceptual basis of the new nitrogen dynamics and provides a comprehensive update of the equations, variables, parameters and inputs for the model. Keywords: process-based model, acid deposition, recovery
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A historical emission inventory for sulphur dioxide has been compiled for Europe covering the period 1880–1991. The estimated emissions have been used as input to the sulphur module of the EMEP/MSC-W acid deposition model. The aim was to show the way and the extent to which the historical development of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions alone has affected the concentration and deposition fields of oxidised sulphur in Europe. Although acknowledged, effects exerted by the meteorological variability and the changing oxidising capacity of the atmosphere over the years have not been taken into consideration. Long-term emission estimates reveal that combustion of coal was the dominant emission source before World War II in all countries and combustion of liquid fuels thereafter in most. Releases from industrial processes were relatively small. National sulphur dioxide emissions peaked mainly in the 1960s and 1970s, whilst emission control measures resulted in gradual reductions in most countries in the 1980s. In Europe as a whole, coal combustion remained the major emission source throughout the century. Total anthropogenic releases increased by a factor of 10 between the 1880 s and 1970s when they peaked at approximately 55 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide, followed by a 30% decline in the 1980s. Uncertainties in national emission estimates due to uncertain sulphur contents in fossil fuels are within ± 30% for 22 out of 28 countries and ± 45% for the rest. The location of emission sources in Europe has shown over the years a progressive detachment from the coalfields towards a widespread distribution, accompanied in the last decades by considerable emission reductions over north-western and parts of central Europe and substantial increases in the south and south-east. Modelled air concentrations and depositions reflect to a great extent the emission pattern, revealing two- to six-fold increases between the 1880 s and 1970s. Maximum sulphur loadings are confined over parts of north-western and central Europe. Accumulated depositions over the period 1880–1991 in these areas reach 600 g (S) m −2 . Emissions are principally in the form of sulphur dioxide, so that comparable concentrations of particulate sulphate in low emission regions indicate the importance of long range transport. Assuming a constant ecosystem sensitivity throughout the period, depositions sufficient to cause ecosystem damage may have occurred before 1880 in many areas of north-western and central Europe. Nevertheless, in large parts of eastern and southern Europe depositions are still below these critical loads. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1996.t01-2-00005.x
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A 3-D Eulerian acid deposition model has been developed at MSC-W. The model has approximately 50 km horizontal resolution with 20 vertical layers, of which 10 are below 2 km. Meteorological input, from a dedicated weather prediction model, is updated at six-hour intervals. Emission inventories for SO 2 , NO x (NO + NO 2 ) and NH 3 , reported officially by individual countries, are used as input data. A brief description of the current model version is given, as well as the model results for sulphur compounds in 1992. We present a comparison of calculated and measured SO 2 and SO 4 annual (scatter plots) and daily concentrations (time-series) at selected locations in Europe.
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Research in recent years has led to conceptualizations of the long-term responses of catchment surface water quality to acidic deposition. That research has focused attention on certain soil processes as likely keys to catchment responses (anion retention, cation exchange, primary mineral weathering, aluminum dissolution, and CO2 solubility). We present a mathematical model which uses quantitative descriptions of these soil chemical processes to estimate the long-term chemical changes that occur in the soil, soil water, and surface waters of catchments in response to changes in atmospheric deposition. The model is applied to a small forested catchment in the Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. Historical changes in surface water quality are reconstructed for the catchment for the last 140 years. The model indicates that alkalinity of surface waters in the catchment may have been reduced by as much as 50%. Water quality is forecast for the catchment under three different scenarios of future changes in atmospheric deposition. The model indicates that all but very large reductions in deposition will result in further deterioration of the catchment water quality. The process-oriented, lumped-parameter approach used is consistent with all currently available observations of water quality in the catchment. Due to the lack of long-term records of catchment water quality, strict verification of the model estimates and an assessment of the model validity is problematic. This is the case for all models of long-terrn catchment chemical responses to acid deposition. Nonetheless, the model provides a means of integrating the results of individual process level laboratory and field studies. Used this way, the model becomes a vehicle for examining the interactions and long-term implications of our conceptualization of the acidification process.
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Quantitative predictions of the effects of acid deposition onterrestrial and aquatic systems require physically based, process-oriented models of catchment soil water and streamwater chemistry. A desirable characteristic of such models is that they include terms to describe the important phenomena controlling a system's chemical response to acidic deposition, yet be restricted in complexity so that they can be implemented on diverse systems with a minimum of a priori data. We present an assessment of a conceptual model of soil water and streamwater chemistry based on soil cation exchange, dissolution of aluminum hydroxide, and solution of carbon dioxide, all processes that occur in catchment soils and that have rapid equilibration times. The model is constructed using an "average" or lumped representation of these spatially distributed catchment processes. The adequacy of the model is assessed by applying it to 3 years of soil water and streamwater chemistry data from White Oak Run, Virginia, a second-order stream in the Shenandoah National Park. Soil properties predicted by the model are in good agreement with presently available measurements of those soil properties. The success of the model suggests that lumped representations of complex and spatially distributed chemical reactions in soils can efficiently describe the gross chemical behavior of whole catchments (e.g., pH, alkalinity, and major ionic concentrations in surface waters). Further assessment of the adequacy of this conceptual approach will require more detailed empirical knowledge of the soil processes being modeled, particularly soil cation exchange and the variability of soil CO2 partial pressures.
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In a sample of 102 lakes in the Pyrenees, 68% were sensitive to acidification in varying degrees. A model which describes the regional alkalinity distribution by using random variables to represent lake alkalinity, chemical weathering and biological alkalinity generation, is proposed to calculate the alkalinity loss due to acid deposition, and the critical and target acid loads. This model is kept simple to reduce the input requirements and make the calibration procedures feasible on a regional scale. The relative simplicity of high mountain catchments lying above the tree line, in particular the lack of well developed soils, makes such a model appropriate for these environments. The loss in alkalinity since the start of large scale industrial emissions was estimated to be 35 mu eq l(-1) on average. Assuming a scenario of increasing nitrogen deposition, we estimate that a critical level of 10% of lakes with alkalinities below 20 mu eq l(-1) would be reached for a nitrogen deposition of 70-75 mu eq l(-1). According to the model, a 50% reduction of both nitrogen and sulphur deposition would be necessary to ensure that all lakes are above the critical level. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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102 lakes distributed along the Catalan Pyrenees (from 0-degrees-41'E to 1-degrees-48'E) were sampled during summer in 1987. The alkalinity of the lakes was low (< 300 muequiv l-1) but there was no regional acidification. Most chemical variance was related to the nature of the bedrock. Lakes on Devonian, Cambro-Ordovician, Silurian or granodioritic batholites were easily distinguished. Even between different batholites, there were significant differences. There was no clear distinction either in the chemistry or in trophic status between disturbed and undisturbed lakes, except for certain extreme cases. Pasture is the most important source of eutrophication, but is restricted to small, very shallow and usually endorreic lakes.
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1. We carried out a coordinated survey of mountain lakes covering the main ranges across Europe (including Greenland), sampling 379 lakes above the local tree line in 2000. The objectives were to identify the main sources of chemical variability in mountain lakes, define a chemical classification of lakes, and develop tools to extrapolate our results to regional lake populations through an empirical regionalisation or upscaling of chemical properties. 2. We investigated the main causes of chemical variability using factor analysis (FA) and empirical relationships between chemistry and several environmental variables. Weathering, sea salt inputs, atmospheric deposition of N and S, and biological activity in soils of the catchment were identified as the major drivers of lake chemistry. 3. We tested discriminant analysis (DA) to predict the lake chemistry. It was possible to use the lithology of the catchments to predict the range of Ca2+ and SO42− into which a lake of unknown chemistry will decrease. Lakes with lower SO42− concentrations have little geologically derived S, and better reflect the variations in atmospheric S loading. The influence of marine aerosols on lakewater chemistry could also be predicted from the minimum distance to the sea and altitude of the lakes. 4. The most remarkable result of FA was to reveal a factor correlated to DOC (positively) and NO3− (negatively). This inverse relationship might be the result either of independent processes active in the catchment soils and acting in an opposite sense, or a direct interaction, e.g. limitation of denitrification by DOC availability. Such a relationship has been reported in the recent literature in many sites and at all scales, appearing to be a global pattern that could reflect the link between the C and N cycles. 5. The concentration of NO3− is determined by both atmospheric N deposition and the processing capacity of the catchments (i.e. N uptake by plants and soil microbes). The fraction of the variability in NO3− because of atmospheric deposition is captured by an independent factor in the FA. This is the only factor showing a clear pattern when mapped over Europe, indicating lower N deposition in the northernmost areas. 6. A classification has been derived which takes into account all the major chemical features of the mountain lakes in Europe. FA provided the criteria to establish the most important factors influencing lake water chemistry, define classes within them, and classify the surveyed lakes into each class. DA can be used as a tool to scale up the classification to unsurveyed lakes, regarding sensitivity to acidification, marine influence and sources of S.
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A model, MAKEDEP, was developed for reconstructing historic atmospheric deposition and nutrient uptake for forests using present day values. Deposition is reconstructed by separation of wet deposition and throughfall into five different categories. Dry deposition is assumed to depend linearly on needle biomass. Non-marine deposition is scaled using general European emission and deposition trends for sulphur, nitrate and ammonia. Historic nutrient uptake is reconstructed using current biomass and nutrient content, a logistic forest growth curve and information on historic land use.
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Soils and lakes were sampled in fifteen catchments in the alpine zone of the Tatra Mountains (Slovak-Polish border) to evaluate the dependence of lake water chemistry on soil properties. The amount of soil in alpine meadows varied from 38 to 255 kg m -2 (dry weight soil <2 mm; average of 121 kg m -2). The average cation exchange capacity (CEC) was 12 eq m -2, average base saturation was 12%, and average pH CaCl2, was 4.0. Moraine areas had, on average, 13 kg m -2 of <2 mm soil in small deposits between stones. Their chemical properties were similar to mineral horizons of alpine soils but had higher concentrations of P forms. Soil composition was spatially uniform, having coefficients of variation of all parameters between 5 and 115%, and did not exhibit significant differences between the catchments or along the elevation gradient. Variation in pools of soil constituents was ∼2-fold higher. Soil organic matter concentration was the parameter that most strongly and positively correlated with N, P, S, CEC, exchangeable base cations, exchangeable acidity, and all biochemical parameters (C, N, and P in microbial biomass and C and N mineralisation rates). Lake water concentrations of organic C, N, and total P were positively correlated (P < 0.01) with the pool of soil organic matter in the catchments, while NO 3- concentrations were negatively correlated (P < 0.001). No correlations were found between C, N, and P concentrations in lakes and soil chemistry, indicating the dominant role of soil quantity over quality for surface water composition in the Tatra lakes. Relatively high concentrations of Ca 2+, Na +, SO 42-, reactive Si, and acid neutralising capacity in some lakes were not explained by soil characteristics, and were more probably related to bedrock composition and structure.
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Bulk precipitation samples from four locations in the Pyrenees were analysed for major ions and nutrients. The chemical composition of precipitation was related to the origin of storms. Rains coming from the Mediterranean Sea (south-southeast) were alkaline, while those from the Atlantic (northwest) were more acidic. The situation and particular orography of each sampling point determine the amount of precipitation received from each direction and, therefore, the chemical features of rain at each location. We detected differences in the acid loading among the four sampling sites. Bulk precipitation in the Pyrenees is more alkaline than precipitation in central Europe (Alps), owing to the higher Ca2+ concentrations and the lower acid pollutant levels (SO42− and NO3−) found in the Pyrenees.
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Acid rain! Dead fish! Forest dieback! In the 1980s and 1990s, these headlines appeared frequently in environmental news coverage in Europe and North America. Air pollutants from highly industrialized regions had caused widespread damage to pristine ecosystems far downwind. The victims-people living in regions such as eastern Canada and Norway-pressured the polluters. In Europe, 30 countries engaged in tough negotiations that finally resulted in international treaties to reduce the emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides. Acid deposition has now declined by similar to60%, and some lakes and streams have begun to recover. Will all waters recover, or must emissions be reduced even more? And how long will recovery take? In this article, we try to answer these questions by using models to predict future acidification of surface waters in 12 acid-sensitive regions in Europe.
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The MAGIC model was used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of several possible climate-induced effects on the recovery of soil and surface water from acidification. A common protocol was used at 14 intensively studied sites in Europe and eastern North America. The results show that several of the factors are of only minor importance (increase in pCO(2) in soil air and runoff, for example), several are important at only a few sites (seasalts at near-coastal sites, for example) and several are important at nearly all sites (increased concentrations of organic acids in soil solution and runoff, for example). In addition changes in forest growth and decomposition of soil organic matter are important at forested sites and sites at risk of nitrogen saturation. The trials suggest that in future modelling of recovery from acidification should take into account possible concurrent climate changes and focus specially on the climate-induced changes in organic acids and nitrogen retention.
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