Human-induced hazards, such as terrorism, need to be considered in the management of infrastructure systems. Human-induced hazards, though, present data collection challenges that often force the use of other techniques, many times subjective in nature, for predicting the occurrence and magnitude of the hazard. No matter how human-induced hazards are dealt with in the management of systems, the
... [Show full abstract] need for predictions of the occurrence and magnitude of the hazard will be required to help allocate resources for infrastructure protection. The research described in this paper was an effort to show that agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) might be a computational technique that could be used to develop probabilistic models of the occurrence and magnitude of terrorist attacks in a community. The ABMS approach used in this study should be considered a prototype model for management of human-induced hazards. The objective of the research described here was to use a relatively abstract, resource-based, evolutionary agent model to examine if ABMS can be used to make predictions about the frequency, location, and magnitude of terrorist attacks. A major goal under this objective was to validate the prototype model in a preliminary manner. The agent model used is an extension of an evolutionary agent modeling technique that has been used in the past to study a range of social phenomena that emerge from relatively simple agents interacting in their efforts to obtain resources necessary for life. The basic approach in this paper of using ABMS to model human-induced hazards has been preliminarily validated in the sense that the attack magnitudes seem to be power-law distributed and attacks occur mostly in regions where high levels of wealth pass through, representative of transit routes and markets. The model developed in this study indicates that ABMS is a potentially viable approach to modeling socioeconomic-based infrastructure systems in order to deal with human-induced hazards. Other more domain-specific ABMS approaches are also possible and are briefly discussed.