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Climate change impacts on understory bamboo species and giant pandas in China's Qinling Mountains
Abstract
Climate change is threatening global ecosystems through its impact on the survival of individual species and their ecological functions. Despite the important role of understorey plants in forest ecosystems, climate impact assessments on understorey plants and their role in supporting wildlife habitat are scarce in the literature. Here we assess climate-change impacts on understorey bamboo species with an emphasis on their ecological function as a food resource for endangered giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). An ensemble of bamboo distribution projections associated with multiple climate-change projections and bamboo dispersal scenarios indicates a substantial reduction in the distributional ranges of three dominant bamboo species in the Qinling Mountains, China during the twenty-first century. As these three species comprise almost the entire diet of the panda population in the region, the projected changes in bamboo distribution suggest a potential shortage of food for this population, unless alternative food sources become available. Although the projections were developed under unavoidable simplifying assumptions and uncertainties, they indicate potential challenges for panda conservation and underscore the importance of incorporating interspecific interactions into climate-change impact assessments and associated conservation planning.
... Giant panda's habitats have become severely contracted and fragmented, and the habitat fragmentation creates small populations with increased spatial isolation, which increases giant panda's risks of extinction (Zhu et al., 2010). On the other hand, giant panda's habitat was becoming warming, and the warming had induced potential heat stress expand by 38-218% from 1960s to 2000s within the densely populated giant panda habitat (Zang et al., 2017), which is expected to amplify the effect of giant panda's habitat fragmentation (Zang et al., 2020).Yet most studies focused on the effects of climate change on giant panda (Fan et al., 2014;Shen et al., 2015;Tuanmu et al., 2012) or the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on giant panda Zhu et al., 2010) in isolation (Wang et al., 2018;Zhang et al., 2018). If the potential combined effects of these processes are greater than one of them, then the current conservation recommendations for giant pandas would be inappropriate or even misleading (Chazal and Rounsevell, 2009;Mantyka-pringle et al., 2012). ...
... studies (Fan et al., 2014;Tuanmu et al., 2012;Zang et al., 2020), most of which ignored the relative contribution of climate change or land-use change. In contrast, forest-cover change explained 38.1% of variation in giant panda's population persistence (R 2 = 0.381). ...
... Actually, the truth was that it was the forest-cover that sheltered giant panda from climate change. Forests constituted the crucial components of giant panda's habitats by mitigating climate change through physical, chemical, and biological processes (Bonan, 2008;Tuanmu et al., 2012). Old growth forest was just as good an indicator that giant pandas live in the area as the presence of bamboo (Liu et al., 2001;Zhang et al., 2011). ...
Climate and land-use change are two primary drivers of global biodiversity loss, which increase the risks of extinction for giant panda, an umbrella and one of the most heavily invested species in conservation. Understanding how giant panda responds to these environmental changes thus is critical for developing long-term effective conservation strategies. However, until now most studies focused on only the effects of either climate change or land-use change on giant panda. So, if the potential combined effects of these processes are greater than either of them, the current conservation recommendations would be inappropriate or misleading. Here, based on two national survey data on giant panda occurrences across nearly thirty years, we quantified the variation of giant panda's population persistence as a function of land-use (measured as forest-cover) change, climate (measured as annual mean temperature (MAT), annual mean summer temperature (MAST) and annual mean precipitation (MAP)) change, and the synergistic effect of land-use and climate change. We found forest-cover change explained 38.1% of giant panda's persistence variation, while climate change explained 20.1% of the variation, and the synergistic effect of land-use and climate change explained only 1.5% of the variation. We confirmed that forest-cover change surpassed climate change or the synergistic effect between them as the greatest force driving giant panda's population persistence. Our findings highlighted the urgent need for a more comprehensive understanding of the relative effects of climate change by integrating climate change and land-use change rather than just focusing on climate change in tackling global biodiversity loss.
... Bamboo is vulnerable to climate change due to their unusual extended reproduction intervals (from 10 to 120 years) (Janzen, 1976), which renders it less able to track changes in suitable climatic conditions (Barros et al., 2017). Bamboo distribution is experiencing a significant threat by quickly changing climate (Li et al., 2015b;Li et al., 2019;Tuanmu et al., 2012). How to accurately assess the climate impact on bamboo, therefore, is a critical issue for effective bamboo development planning. ...
... Bamboo, being a C3 plant, has been reported to increase water use efficiency, photosynthesis, and growth under elevated CO 2 (Grombone- Guaratini et al., 2013;Li et al., 2013). We therefore hypothesize that elevated CO 2 may influence the suitability of bamboo to local climate and have an effect on future bamboo distributions, but such an effect has been ignored in assessments of the potential response of bamboo to climate change (Li et al., 2015a;Li et al., 2015b;Li et al., 2019;Tuanmu et al., 2012). It is therefore important to incorporate CO 2 effects into the assessment of potential future bamboo distribution. ...
... In the past decades, bamboo plantations have been increasingly expanding, due to the associated socio-economic benefits and ecosystem services (i.e., poverty alleviation, soil and water conservation, biodiversity conservation, and carbon fixation) (Dwivedi et al., 2019;FAO, 2020;Paudyal et al., 2019;Yiping and Henley, 2010). The assessment of potential climate impacts on bamboo is thus gaining importance (Fan et al., 2014;Li et al., 2019;Tuanmu et al., 2012). We projected a negative influence of climate change on habitat suitability and changes in the suitable areas for bamboo when not considering the direct effect of elevated CO 2 . ...
The distribution of bamboo is sensitive to climate change and is also potentially affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to its C3 photosynthetic pathway. Yet the effect of CO2 in climate impact assessments of potential changes in bamboo distribution has to date been overlooked. In this study, we proposed a simple and quantitative method to incorporate the impact of atmospheric CO2 concentration into a species distribution modeling framework. To do so, we implemented 10 niche modeling algorithms with regionally downscaled climatic variables and combined field campaign observations. We assessed future climate impacts on the distribution of an economically and ecologically important and widely distributed bamboo species in Madagascar, and examined the effect of increasing CO2 on future projections. Our results suggested that future climatic changes negatively impact potential bamboo distribution in Madagascar, leading to a decline of 34.8% of climatic suitability and a decline of 63.6 ± 3.2% in suitable areas towards 2100 under RCP 8.5. However, increasing atmosphere CO2 offsets the climate impact for bamboo, and led to a smaller reduction of 19.8% in suitability and a potential distribution expansion of +111.6 ± 9.8% in newly suitable areas. We also found that the decline in climatic suitability for bamboo was related to increasing monthly potential evapotranspiration of the warmest quarter and minimum temperature of the warmest month. Conversely, the decreasing isothermality and increasing precipitation of the warmest quarter contributed to projected increase in bamboo-suitable areas. Our study suggested that elevated CO2 may mitigate the decrease in climatic suitability and increase bamboo-suitable areas, through enhancing water use efficiency and decreasing potential evapotranspiration. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the CO2 effect on future plant species distributions, and provide a mechanistic approach to do so for ecosystems constrained by water.
... However, it is right to suggest that bamboos are particularly more vulnerable to climate change due to their lack of ability to adapt as a result of unusually lengthy flowering cycles and rather limited seed dispersal ability (Taylor et al., 1991). In favour, a study carried out in China observed a climate-driven reduction of three bamboo species causing adverse consequences on the panda population (Tuanmu et al., 2013). Kuruna densifolia (an endemic) and B. bambos (a native) are expanding their populations in highly protected areas in Sri Lanka, further supporting the pivotal role played by the climate change for their invasive behaviour where human disturbances are minimal ( Figure 5). ...
... During mass dieoff events, bamboos produce large amounts of litter thereby causing significant impacts on biogeochemical cycles and nutrient pools. Liu et al. (2013) observed a higher soil total N content in bamboo forests than that in evergreen broadleaved forests. In contrast, Song et al. (2017) observed a decelerated nitrogen cycle in an evergreen broadleaved forest in the sub-tropical China following a native bamboo invasion (Phyllostachys pubescens), indicating a risk of decline in soil fertility status over time. ...
... In some countries including Sri Lanka, the bamboo invasion is highly localized, thus can be easily evaded the necessary attention from the researchers and policy makers. Some countries in the region generally highlight the positive consequences of bamboo forests more than the negative, while emphasizing its place in the high conservation priority (Tuanmu et al., 2013). Others highlight the economic values of bamboo forests and their role in alleviating environmental issues, such as soil erosion, water conservation, land rehabilitation and carbon sequestration (Zhou et al., 2005). ...
Defying all norms of biological invasions, some native species expand their populations similar to their exotic counterparts causing potentially harmful impacts in native habitats. Despite an early caution by ecologists, they are now recognized as ‘native invaders’. Though ‘native’ invaders may also incur harmful impacts similar to their ‘exotic’ counterparts, there are clear contrasts between them, thus demanding further studies to explore their life traits and cues that trigger their invasive traits. Among native invaders, bamboos are in the forefront due to their robust growth and resilience to harsh conditions. Also, it is a known fact that bamboo-dominated forests are on the increase globally while native forest are declining at a rapid rate. This review attempts to condense the current understanding of ‘native’ bamboos that spread in the Asia Pacific region with invasive potential and their short- and long-term ecological impacts. Possible environmental cues that may trigger their ‘invasive’ nature are also discussed. Of many, climate change seems to be the major driving force triggering their invasive behavior, though long-term studies are needed to ratify this link. Major challenges and knowledge gaps that hamper their control have also been deliberated. The evidence confirmed that native bamboos have the potential to incur negative impacts on ecology, social and economic aspects. However, their impacts are not always in parallel with that of ‘exotic’ invaders, thus cautioning any attempt of generalization. The lack of comprehensive research and historical information are considered as major impediments to identify suitable measures to manage them effectively. Further studies are mandatory to fill the existing knowledge gaps and to identify challenges to bring about effective management strategies to control ‘native’ bamboos with invasive potential.
... However, the past two decades have witnessed modest gains in panda numbers and range expansions that are largely attributable to the establishment of protected areas and the implementation of species protections [8,9]. These improvements in the availability of suitable habitat contributed to the recent downlisting on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List from Endangered to Vulnerable [9], yet the prospect of climate change is considered a major factor increasing the panda's vulnerability to extinction, primarily through its effects on the panda's primary food source-bamboo [7,8,10,11]. Thus, conservation policy and planning needs to be informed by these conflicting anthropogenic processes, with climate and habitat degradation inflicting harm on panda populations and habitat protection and restoration having positive influences. ...
... Thus, conservation policy and planning needs to be informed by these conflicting anthropogenic processes, with climate and habitat degradation inflicting harm on panda populations and habitat protection and restoration having positive influences. Climate change forecasts for panda distributions have yielded widely varying results with projected habitat loss ranging from 12 to 71% [10,[12][13][14][15][16], making recommendations for managers and policy-makers difficult to implement. While these forecast models have provided useful dialogue informing conservation strategies for pandas, no one, to our knowledge, has yet taken a comprehensive look at what has happened to panda distributions under recent past changes in climate. ...
... Indeed, the three-decade period covered by our analysis witnessed temperature increases of 0.71°C accompanied first by a pattern of panda population decline, then population increase [18]. Thus, although climate influences panda distribution on the landscape, a warming climate did not prevent population expansion under good management practices, suggesting that the fate of the panda may not be as closely tied to climate as has been hypothesized previously [10,[12][13][14][15][16]. Caution is warranted in generalizing our findings to the Qingling mountains, where pandas have been predicted to suffer the strongest negative effects from climate change in the future [10]. ...
Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) distribution using a large-scale 30 year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda's distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.
... The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is a flagship species in nature conservation, for the effect of climate change on giant panda and its habitat, different researches have different opinions. For example, many studies based on climate models and ecological niche modelling have shown that climate change would cause significant degradation to various habitats, as characterized by decreases in the habitat quality and/or habitat loss (Li et al., 2015a;Shen et al., 2015;Tuanmu et al., 2013;Yan et al., 2017). ...
... At the population level, changes in PFTs provide an understanding of the sensitivity and stability of a plant population to climate change (Green et al., 2008), whereas at the plant community level, changes in PFGs can explain or predict the responses of the plant community composition to climate change (Violle et al., 2014). Previous studies have reported that climate change would significantly alter the vegetation distribution and cover of the giant panda habitat (Tuanmu et al., 2013); however, the details of this process are largely unknown. An investigation of the impact of climate change on PFTs and PFGs will fill this knowledge gap, allowing us to understand and predict habitat changes. ...
... The results showed that the abundances of the two bamboo species increased over time, which is different from the results of previous studies that used climate-only and non-continuous time change approaches and predicted a loss between 45.6% and 86.9% in the bamboo's cover (Tuanmu et al., 2013;Zhang et al., 2018b). The cover percentage would not alter our results regarding habitat suitability unless the cover was lower than 50%; however, pandas are consistently found in areas with bamboo cover higher than 50% regardless of the bamboo availability in the panda range (Hull et al., 2014). ...
Climate change has been predicted as a major threat to giant panda habitat. While modelling prediction of the impact of climate change on habitat quality may overlook or underestimate biological interactions and adaptations , long-term monitoring is therefore essential approach to see the real situation. We analyzed the changes in plant composition and structure of 107 long-term monitoring plots in the giant panda habitat over four decades, and found that 1) the climate has become warmer and drier in the overall giant panda habitat; 2) plant species richness, different functional groups and dominant trees species abundance have kept relatively stable without human interference, and plant community canopy has not changed significantly; 3) the abundance of the giant panda's main food, bamboo, has increased; 4) specific leaf area had a significant relationship with dominant plant species abundance over time, which implies that plant functional traits would be potential indicators of assessing the impacts of climate change on habitat quality. Our study suggests that threats of climate change to giant panda habitat might be mitigated by contemporary conservation, highlighting the importance long-term protection of the natural processes and the control of human disturbances in the conservation of giant panda and other endangered animal species.
... Research on giant pandas has attracted domestic and foreign scholars' attention [21][22][23]. Some of these studies assessed the influence of climate change on the giant panda in the Qinling Mountains and found that the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease [9,[24][25][26]. The studies conducted in the Daxiangling and Qionglai Mountains indicated that suitable habitat loss will increase significantly under climate change as limited by the availability of bamboo and forest [27,28]. ...
... To identify a subset of environmental variables with minimal multicollinearity, we calculated the pairwise Pearson correlation coefficients for all 22 environmental variables. For a pair of variables with a correlation coefficient |r| > 0.7, we tested all environmental variables in a pairwise way, and retained the variable with the lowest variance inflation factor (VIF) in each pair of variables [25,[40][41][42]. Finally, six variables were used for constructing the SDMs: isothermality (Bio03), annual precipitation (Bio12), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), elevation, slope, and aspect. ...
Understanding how climate change alters the spatial aggregation of sympatric species is important for biodiversity conservation. Previous studies usually focused on spatial shifting of species but paid little attention to changes in interspecific competitions under climate change. In this study, we evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the spatial aggregation of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and three sympatric competitive species (i.e., black bears (Ursus thibetanus), golden takins (Budorcas taxicolor), and wild boars (Sus scrofa)) in the Qinling Mountains, China. We employed an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to map the current spatial distributions of giant pandas and sympatric animals and projected them to future climate scenarios in 2050s and 2070s. We then examined the range overlapping and niche similarities of these species under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the distribution areas of giant pandas and sympatric species would decrease remarkably under future climate changes. The shifting directions of the overlapping between giant pandas and sympatric species vary under different climate change scenarios. In conclusion, future climate change greatly shapes the spatial overlapping pattern of giant pandas and sympatric species in the Qinling Mountains, while interspecific competition would be intensified under both mild and worst-case climate change scenarios.
... The downlisting of the giant panda from Endangered (EN) to Vulnerable (VU) in the IUCN Red List confirms the effectiveness of current efforts to conserve this species (Swaisgood et al. 2016). However, the long-term sustainability of current populations is still in jeopardy due to habitat fragmentation (Zhu et al. 2010(Zhu et al. , 2011, and climate change (Songer et al. 2012;Tuanmu et al. 2013;Fan et al. 2014;Li et al. 2015a). Currently, the entire wild population is composed of 33 subpopulations, of which 18 contain fewer than 10 individuals, and only 6 have more than 100 individuals (Tang et al. 2015;Swaisgood et al. 2016). ...
... The habitat fragmentation, primarily due to expansion of agriculture, and human infrastructure such as hydroelectric plants and roads, has degraded habitat quality and disrupted connectivity . Predicted shifts in bamboo habitat due to climate change will exacerbate the impact of fragmentation and degradation on giant panda habitat (Songer et al. 2012;Tuanmu et al. 2013;Fan et al. 2014;Wang et al. 2018). In recent years the government and NGOs have shifted their focus from establishing new reserves to ensuring the connectivity between existing populations, which is a key requirement for sustaining giant panda populations (Swaisgood et al. 2016). ...
ContextThe downlisting of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) from Endangered to Vulnerable in IUCN Red List confirms the effectiveness of current conservation practices. However, future survival of giant panda is still in jeopardy due to habitat fragmentation and climate change. Maintaining movement corridors between habitat patches in the newly established Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) is the key for the long-term sustainability of the species.Objectives
We evaluated the impacts of conversion from natural forest to plantation on giant panda habitat connectivity, which is permitted within collective forests and encouraged by the policies for the economic benefits of local communities. We modeled distribution of giant panda habitat in Minshan Mountains which harbors its largest population, and delineated movement corridors between core habitat patches under management scenarios of different forest conversion proportions.Methods
We applied an integrated species distribution model based on inhomogeneous Poisson point process to combine presence-only data and site occupancy data, and least-cost models to identify potential movement corridors between core habitat patches.ResultsWe found that current distribution of plantation has not damaged connectivity between core habitat patches of giant panda. However, it could be severely degraded if mass conversion occurred. Since the GPNP incorporates all the core habitats identified from our model, controlling natural forest conversion inside GPNP would maintain the movement corridors for giant panda.Conclusions
We recommend no expansion of plantations inside the GPNP, and improving collective forest management for expansion of ecological forest in adjoining habitat patches.
... However, China's efforts to protect and restore the native forests where these animals live have been a major driving factor for the increasing population trend of giant pandas in the wild from ∼1,596 in 2003 to 1,864 in 2016, and the subsequent reduction in their status (2)(3)(4)(5). Despite no longer being classified as endangered, concern remains regarding their status as habitat fragmentation, population isolation, increasing livestock encroachment, infrastructure development, and tourism have emerged as new threats to the survival of the species (1,2,(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11). Of particular concern is the rapid rate of climate change and associated habitat changes, which may lead to additional loss of habitat by more than 50% according to some models (6,(8)(9)(10). ...
... Despite no longer being classified as endangered, concern remains regarding their status as habitat fragmentation, population isolation, increasing livestock encroachment, infrastructure development, and tourism have emerged as new threats to the survival of the species (1,2,(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11). Of particular concern is the rapid rate of climate change and associated habitat changes, which may lead to additional loss of habitat by more than 50% according to some models (6,(8)(9)(10). ...
The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is a vulnerable species and a charismatic member of zoological collections worldwide. Despite its importance as a representative species for global wildlife conservation efforts, no studies to date have described normal cell morphology or cytoplasmic constituents by traditional techniques such as cytochemical staining and evaluation of ultrastructural features. The objective of this study was to accurately identify and characterize the leukocytes and platelets of clinically healthy giant pandas using routine Wright-Giemsa stain, eight cytochemical stains, immunocytochemistry (CD3), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to further the collective understanding of normal cellular morphological features, cytochemical reactivity, and cytoplasmic contents found in health. Voluntary venipuncture was performed on four healthy individual animals (two adults and two juveniles), as part of routine preventive health evaluation. Blood was collected for routine and cytochemical stains, and into 2.5% glutaraldehyde for TEM. On Wright-Giemsa-stained blood films, leukocytes were differentiated into granulocytes (neutrophils, eosinophils, basophils) and mononuclear cells (lymphocytes, monocytes). Cytochemical staining revealed similar leukocyte and platelet staining patterns to those reported in other mammals, with some notable differences. By TEM, leukocytes with nuclear and cytoplasmic features of mononuclear cells were readily differentiated from granulocytes, and platelets had similar ultrastructural features to those reported in other mammals. Neutrophils were the predominant cell type followed by lymphocytes, while basophils were rare. Rare large or reactive lymphocytes, rare reactive monocytes, and rare large platelets were noted in apparently healthy giant pandas of this study. A unique mononuclear cell, with a moderately indented nucleus and shared cytochemical and ultrastructural characteristics of lymphocytes and monocytes, was discovered in this species. The combined cytochemical, immunocytochemical (CD3), and ultrastructural features of these unique cells more closely resemble those of monocytes, but the definitive cell lineage remains unknown at this time. This study provides novel information on giant panda leukocyte morphology and cellular constituents in health, shows the importance of manual blood film review, has important implications for hemogram interpretation in future clinical cases and research, and provides a baseline for future characterization and understanding of hemogram changes in response to disease.
... Ensembles have been widely used when projecting future species occurrence. These ensembles often include projections obtained from different techniques (e.g., logistic regression, maximum entropy, boosted regression trees) used to model species distributions (e.g., García-Callejas and Araújo, 2016), differences in model parameterizations (Cobos et al., 2019), alternative sources of climate observations as environmental predictors (e.g., Tang et al., 2018), multiple thresholds to covert likelihood of occurrence to binary predictions of species presence (e.g., Nenzén and Araújo, 2011), or future climate conditions acquired from numerous global climate models (GCMs) driven by several greenhouse gas concentration pathways (e.g., Tuanmu et al., 2013). One uncertainty source that is rarely considered is the limitations of the species occurrences used to calibrate a SDM. ...
... In addition to outlining an approach for assessing uncertainty, this research, along with the companion paper by Tang et al. (2018), also provides additional insights on potential future changes in bamboo distribution in southwest China. The impact of climate change on the distribution of the bamboo food staples of the giant panda within the panda's current geographic range has been the focus of a number of previous studies (e.g., Tuanmu et al., 2013;Li et al., 2015a,b;Zhang et al., 2018). However, when calibrating species distribution models, these studies employed a single source of species presence data and a single source of present-day climate data, thus ignoring the contributions of these uncertainty sources to the projected future climatic suitability and bamboo distributions. ...
Outputs of species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used as indicators of climate conditions favorable for species occurrence. When using these outputs to inform planning and decision making, it is essential that the uncertainties associated with the projections of present-day and future climatic suitability are carefully considered. Climate change assessments routinely consider the uncertainty introduced into SDM outputs by differences in future climate projections, and other uncertainty sources, such as the choice of the threshold to convert simulated probabilities to binary climatically suitable areas, are also oftentimes considered. However, the uncertainty introduced by the limitations of the species occurrence data used in the SDM calibration is rarely evaluated. These limitations, which include location error, sampling bias, and species misidentification, may reduce the utility of SDM outputs in conservation research and practice. Using understory bamboo species in southwest China as examples, here we demonstrate that species occurrences obtained using remote sensing offer an additional dataset for calibrating SDMs that, in conjunction with conventional observations and employing an ensemble approach of outputs from multiple models, provide an estimate of the uncertainty introduced by the species occurrence data. A biweekly time series of the satellite-based Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRI) was employed to estimate bamboo occurrence based on phenological signatures of the bamboo species and their overstory canopies. Using Maxent, a popular modeling framework, present-day and projected future climatic suitability were assessed separately for conventional species presence observations from the Fourth National Giant Panda Survey and for the remotely-sensed presence estimates. The ensemble of model outputs suggests that the uncertainty introduced by the species occurrence data, along with the interaction with other sources of uncertainty, may be as substantial as the uncertainty introduced by the use of different climate scenarios or by the threshold used to estimate binary climatically suitable areas. Ignoring the uncertainty introduced by the limitations of the species occurrences may compromise the interpretation of SDM outputs and reduce their usefulness for conservation planning. Remote sensing is a largely untapped resource for assessing uncertainty in SDM simulations.
... Recent studies indicated that as results of the predicted climate change, the minimum elevation of panda habitat would rise by 500 m in the Qinling Mountains and 358 m in the Minshan Mountains, and pandas would experience larger range contractions and habitat fragmentation (Fan et al., 2014;Shen et al., 2015). Alternatively, an ensemble of bamboo distribution projections associated with multiple climate-change projections and bamboo dispersal scenarios indicated a substantial reduction in the distributional ranges of the dominant bamboo species during the twenty-first century Tuanmu et al., 2013). Such studies projected what would happen only for a single component of the panda-bamboo system under future climate scenarios. ...
... Z. Zang, et al. Biological Conservation 241 (2020) 108392 Tuanmu et al., 2013), we found that climate warming has led to a significant expansion in thermally suitable areas. This finding indicated that bamboo growth and expansion may be beneficial from climate warming. ...
... The giant panda is an obligate bamboo-feeder, with bamboo representing 99 % of its diet (Shen et al., 2008). The giant panda and bamboo species have co-evolved to ensure both their survival (Tuanmu et al., 2013). Forests provide shade for bamboo clones and dens for the panda, and forest-cover has been indispensable for the survival of the giant panda's staple food bamboo (Shen et al., 2008). ...
Biodiversity and climate are interconnected through carbon. Drivers of climate change and biodiversity loss interact in complex ways to produce outcomes that may be synergistic, and biodiversity loss and climate change reinforce each other. Prioritizing the conservation of flagship and umbrella species is often used as a surrogate strategy for broader conservation goals, but it is unclear whether these efforts truly benefit biodiversity and carbon stocks. Conservation of the giant panda offers a paradigm to test these assumptions. Here, using the benchmark estimates of ecosystem carbon stocks and species richness, we investigated the relationships among the giant panda, biodiversity, and carbon stocks and assessed the implications of giant panda conservation for biodiversity and carbon-focused conservation efforts. We found that giant panda density and species richness were significantly positively correlated, while no correlation was found between giant panda density and soil carbon or total carbon density. The established nature reserves protect 26 % of the giant panda conservation region, but these areas contain <21 % of the ranges of other species and <21 % of total carbon stocks. More seriously, giant panda habitats are still facing high risks of habitat fragmentation. Habitat fragmentation is negatively correlated with giant panda density, species richness, and total carbon density. The ongoing giant panda habitat fragmentation is likely to cause an additional 12.24 Tg C of carbon emissions over 30 years. Thus, giant panda-focused conservation efforts have effectively prevented giant panda extinction but have been less effective in maintaining biodiversity and high‑carbon ecosystems. It is urgent for China to contribute to the development of an effective and representative national park system that integrates climate change issues into national biodiversity strategies and vice versa in dealing with the dual environmental challenges of biodiversity loss and climate change under a post-2020 framework.
... Last, but not least uncertainty is future climate set, different general circulation models (GCMs), different climate change scenarios (SSPs), and different simulation periods in the future have wide variations in projecting global warming, and there is currently no uniform standard for selecting an optimal climate model Tuanmu et al., 2013;Yan et al., 2017) These elements bring great uncertainty to the simulation of this study. Hence, we used the certainty index of the suitable habitat of P. chinensis in the future (C i ) to reduce the uncertainty caused by these uncertainty elements, and the uncertainty caused by a single GCM was reduced by integrating the simulation results of different GCMs. ...
Pistacia chinensis Bunge. is one of the main woody oil crops with a large artificial planting area in China and has important economic and ecological value. Here, based on 237 occurrence data and 22 environmental variables, we explored the potential planting area of P. chinensis in China in the present and future climate change scenarios by using a comprehensive model method. To fully consider the potential planting area of P. chinensis under specific climate change conditions and the limitations of soil conditions, we separately built two niche models to simulate the climate niche and soil demand niche, and then used the intersection of the two models as the result of the comprehensive habitat suitability model, finally, we used land-use data to filter the CHS model result. Our results showed, that under the baseline condition, the potential planting area of P. chinensis covers approximately 0.74ⅹ106 km2 in China. The future projection showed that the impact of global warming on the potentially suitable planting area of P. chinensis is limited, and most of the existing suitable habitats are not affected by climate change. With increasing temperature, the potential planting area will expand northward and slightly contract in the south margin, and its area will be slightly increased. Therefore, this species has great planting potential in China and should be given priority in the future afforestation plan.
... Therefore, maintaining a high productivity of F. denudata is very important for the giant panda's survival and conservation. However, it is predicted that the distribution of dwarf bamboo will be narrowed due to global climate changes (Tuanmu et al., 2013;Yan et al., 2017). As a shallow-rooted plant, F. denudata is highly susceptible to drought, which seriously influences its productivity . ...
Dwarf bamboo (Fargesia denudata) is a staple food for the endangered giant pandas and plays a critical role in the sub-alpine ecosystem. Characterized by shallow roots and expeditious growth, it is exceedingly susceptible to drought stress and nitrogen (N) deposition in the context of a changing global environment. However, a comprehensive picture about the interactive response mechanism of dwarf bamboo to the two factors, water regime and N deposition, is far from being given. Therefore, a completely randomized design with two factors of water regimes (well-watered and water-stressed) and N deposition levels (with and without N addition) of F. denudata was conducted. In view of the obtained results, drought stress had an adverse impact on F. denudata, showing that it destroyed ultrastructure integrity and induced oxidative damage and restricted water status in leaves and roots, as well as declined photosynthetic efficiency in leaves, especially in N non-deposition plants. Nevertheless, F. denudata significantly increased heat dissipation in leaves, regulated antioxidant enzymes activities, antioxidants contents, and osmoregulation substances concentrations in leaves and roots, as well as shifted biomass partitioning in response to drought stress. However, regardless of water availability, N deposition maintained better ultrastructure in leaves and roots, resulting in superior photosynthesis and growth of F. denudata. Additionally, although N deposition did not cause oxidative damage in well-watered plants, ameliorated the effects of drought stress on F. denudata through co-deploying heat dissipation in leaves, the antioxidant system in roots as well as osmotic adjustment in leaves and roots. Noticeably, the leaves and roots of F. denudata expressed quite distinct acclimation responses to drought resistance under N deposition.
... The threat level could be severe as these bamboo species can take another 15À20 years to fully regenerate in the same area [51]. Owing to this long regeneration time, climate change can adversely affect future bamboo distribution [52]. ...
Bamboo availability is a central aspect of red panda conservation. However, its diversity, distribution, and species-wise contribution to red panda diet is unknown. This study aimed to list bamboo species, map their distribution and evaluate their contribution in red panda diet. We recorded 13 bamboo species in red panda range of Nepal. Of these, 11 bamboo species contributed 99% of the total bamboo constituent present in red panda diet. The four bamboo species, namely Thamnocalamus spathiflorus, Yushania maling, Y. microphylla and Drepanostachyum falcatum contributed more than three fourth of the total contributions in the diet. Interestingly, no evidence suggested the discrimination of red panda towards these bamboo species. Red panda could be more vulnerable to bamboo loss, and the level of vulnerability could be severe especially during the bamboo flowering events. We suggest plantation of alternative bamboo species, regulate bamboo harvesting, and manage connectivity in red panda habitat.
... With the increasing habitat fragmentation of wildlife globally 10 , the increased risk of extinction of small panda populations is similar to risks many other species face worldwide 11,12 . Many studies have assessed panda habitat 3,[13][14][15] , the impact of climate change and human activities on panda habitat [16][17][18][19] , design of the nature reserves and corridors [20][21][22] and panda conservation policies 23,24 . Population viability analysis 25,26 , was undertaken using off-the-shelf products such as Vortex 27-32 , Leslie matrix models [33][34][35] or a DNA-based model 36 for a specific mountain area or a nature reserve. ...
In addition to habitat loss and fragmentation, demographic processes—the vagaries of births, deaths and sex ratio fluctuations—pose substantial threats to wild giant panda populations. Additionally, climate change and plans for the Giant Panda National Park may influence (in opposing directions) the extinction risk for wild giant pandas. The Fourth National Giant Panda Census showed pandas living in 33 isolated populations. An estimated 259 animals live in 25 of these groups, ~14% of the total population. We used individual-based models to simulate time series of these small populations for 100 years. We analysed the spatial pattern of their risk of extinction under current conditions and multiple climate change models. Furthermore, we consider the impact of the proposed Giant Panda National Park. Results showed that 15 populations face a risk >90%, and for 3 other populations the risk is >50%. Of the 15 most at-risk populations, national parks can protect only 3. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the 33 populations will probably further divide into 56 populations. Some 41 of them will face a risk >50% and 35 face a risk >90%. Although national parks will probably connect some fragmented habitats, 26 populations will be outside national park planning. Our study gives practical advice for conservation policies and management and has implications for the conservation of other species in the world that live in isolated, fragmented habitats. The authors model likely outcomes for the 33 isolated populations reported in the Fourth National Giant Panda Census under multiple RCP scenarios and with the provision of the planned Giant Panda National Park. They find that, although the National Park may connect some fragmented habitats, most of the populations with high extinction risk fall outside the current plans.
... These results may be attribute to the abundant amount of bamboo forest in Qinling, which is an essential habitat characteristic for giant panda and takin survival (Zeng et al. 2001;Nie et al. 2015). Because more than 90% of Qinling are covered by bamboo forest (Tuanmu et al. 2013), a possible explanation is that giant panda and takin are more flexible to change their ranges than previously expected. However, other species such as tufted deer's habitat is not highly associated with bamboo forest, and the availability of their potential habitats could therefore be much less than anticipated ). ...
Conservation decision-making often relies on species’ distribution changes in response to anthropogenic disturbances but overlook their temporal responses. Filling the knowledge gap on the temporal shifts as elusive responses of wild animals to human activity is important because this may provide information for more proactive conservation planning. In this study, we used camera traps in a field survey technique to investigate the trade-offs between spatial and temporal responses of a mammal community to major human activities in Qinling Mountains, China. We focused on five most abundant mammalian species including giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), takin (Budorcas taxicolor), wild boar (Sus scrofa), tufted deer (Elaphodus cephalophus), and Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus), and examined the drivers of, and the trade-offs between the change of their spatial distributions and daily activity patterns in response to anthropogenic disturbances. We found that in response to human interferences, giant panda and takin mainly changed their distributions, while wild boar, tufted deer and Chinese goral altered their daily activity patterns, indicating the elusive responses of the latter species under anthropogenic stressors. In addition, anthropogenic stressors such as farming and tourism have more profound impacts on mammal communities than previously revealed by species distribution modeling only. For nature reserves that aim to conserve multiple species simultaneously, a more flexible, adaptive management framework is thus needed to capture the trade-offs between multiple species’ spatial and temporal responses to anthropogenic disturbance.
... In the projected future climate change scenarios, different GCMs, different climate change scenarios (SSPs) and different simulation time periods resulted in varying degrees of temperature rise prediction, and there were no selection criteria for certain regions (Tuanmu et al., 2013;Yan et al., 2017). Consequently, the different climate change scenarios introduce unavoidable uncertainty to the simulation; therefore, to deeply discuss the potential impact of temperature rise on suitable habitat and the HQSH of O. sinensis, we separately calculated the spatial average temperature increase of all climate change scenarios (i.e., nine GCMs, four SSPs and four time periods) with the corresponding area of suitable habitat and area of HQSH (Fig. 8). ...
Ophiocordyceps sinensis is a valued entomopathogenic fungus endemic to the Tibetan Plateau. Large-scale commercial harvesting and collection have decreased the production and distribution of this fungus, especially for high-quality O. sinensis. Using adenosine content as a quality index of O. sinensis, we developed a comprehensive niche modelling approach to predict the spatial pattern of O. sinensis quality. Based on distribution and quality data for O. sinensis from published field work and experimental data, we separately built a comprehensive habitat suitability model to identify suitable habitats and a spatial quality model to map the adenosine content pattern in O. sinensis. The final model result was defined as the product of the results of the two models. Via this modelling process, we analysed the adenosine content in O. sinensis under baseline climates and different scenarios of future climate change. The model results showed that with increasing temperature, the suitable habitat of O. sinensis tended to shift to the high-latitude and high-altitude hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, and moderate climate warming expanded the area of suitable habitat for O. sinensis, as well as the area of habitats with high adenosine contents. This study provides information necessary for the conservation and sustainable utilization of O. sinensis, and a comprehensive niche model approach to simulate the contents of effective components in natural medicinal materials; thus, the results can contribute to our understanding of climate change impacts on medicinal materials.
... Bamboo species are vulnerable to climate change because of their uncommon reproduction intervals (Janzen, 1976), apart from limited seed dispersal capacity (Taylor et al., 1991;Tuanmu et al., 2013). To ensure red panda survival bamboo conservation should be the highest importance. ...
The Himalayan red panda (Ailurus fulgens), a recently confirmed distinct species in the red panda genus, is distributed in Nepal, India, Bhutan, and south Tibet. Nepal represents the westernmost distribution of the Himalayan red panda. This study aims to determine important habitat features influencing the distribution of red panda and recommend possible habitat corridors. This manuscript described current potential habitat of 3,222 km2 with the relative abundance of 3.34 signs/km in Nepal. Aspect, canopy cover, bamboo cover, and distance to water were the important habitat attributes. It suggested five potential corridors in western Nepal. Overall, the study has important implications for conservation of the Himalayan red panda in western distribution range. Himalayan red pandas were confined between the range of 2,600 m–3,600 m, with most records between 3,250 m–3,400 m on the north and west‐facing slopes. The potentially suitable habitat of the red panda in Western Nepal is estimated to be about 3,222 km2 with a relative abundance of 3.34 signs/km.
... The paucity of assessment of threats from climate change on red panda is a matter of concern. The impacts of climate change exacerbate the effects of habitat degradation, loss, and fragmentation (Glatston et al., 2015) and reduce bamboo habitats and their species diversity threatening the sustainable supply of bamboo (Li et al., 2015) and causing a shortage of its food (Tuanmu et al., 2013). The narrow ecological niche diet and habitat specialization of red panda render it more vulnerable to the effects of climate change (DNPWC and DFSC, 2018). ...
The red panda is a unique species taxonomically known for its peculiar biological and ecological characteristics, and extreme attractiveness. Despite being highly significant from conservation, scientific and economic perspectives, this species has experienced a declining population in the wild. Thus, to direct further research priorities and conservation actions and assess gaps in the current research trend of this species, a systematic literature review was conducted covering 175 journal articles published in English over 193 years (1827-2020). This review revealed that (1) the biological aspect was highly studied compared to other thematic areas of red panda (2) Captive-based studies are relatively higher than the studies based in wild populations (3) China is leading the red panda studies amongst all red panda range (4) The universities were found contributing more to red panda studies than other institutions. Surprisingly, we found that the researchers from the non-range country were leading red panda study than those from range countries. Our review highlighted the need of prioritising studies in underrepresented locations and understudied thematic areas focusing on the assessment of climate change impact, bamboo distribution status, ecosystem services of red panda habitat, behavior and movement ecology, population estimation, and metapopulation dynamics. We urge landscape-level studies and long-term population monitoring. Besides, we also suggest the documentation and evaluation of the effectiveness of ongoing red panda-focused conservation programs. We also stress the need for strengthening the capacity of institutions and people from range countries.
... The discrepancy between conservation and development is now more manifest at the regional level, as local communities are becoming less dependent on natural resources while regional development activities add more pressure to conservation (Ma et al., 2018;He et al., 2019). For example, tourism activities produce CO2 emissions, contributing to climate change and temperature rise, which in turn will result in the extinction of bamboo in the giant panda habitat (Tuanmu et al., 2013). Therefore, a major future research direction is how to alleviate the conflicts between biodiversity conservation and regional development. ...
It is well recognized that the establishment of protected areas is essential for protecting biodiversity. However, protected areas may have mixed ecological and socioeconomic effects. Scholars have agreed on the positive ecological effects of protected areas, but the socioeconomic effects remain contested. Moreover, most studies have analyzed socioeconomic and ecological effects separately, while there may be a trade-off between the two types of effects. Our research took giant panda nature reserves in the Qinling Mountains in China as a case study. We evaluated the direct and spillover socioeconomic and ecological effects of establishing nature reserves. We found that the establishment of nature reserves has achieved significant direct and spillover ecological effects in reducing household grazing inside and adjacent to nature reserves. Their establishment has also increased households' participation in conservation activities. Furthermore, the establishment of nature reserves has achieved spillover socioeconomic effects; it has significantly increased the per capita income of households adjacent to nature reserves, reducing their poverty. However, the direct socioeconomic effects are not significant , as the livelihoods of households inside nature reserves have not improved significantly. Future conservation policymaking should consider both regional differences (i.e., of households inside vs. adjacent to nature reserves) and community heterogeneity.
... RCP4.6, RCP6, RCP8.5) of greenhouse gas concentration in each GCM used by the IPCC, it is difficult to project changes in The Habitat of Red-crowned Cranes Induced by Climate every GCM and RCP combination. Therefore, within the objectives of this paper and based on previous climate change-related wildlife habitat studies, we adopted four GCMs: BCC-CSM1-1(BC), CCSM4 (CC), HadGEM2-ES (HE), and MPI-ESM-LR (MP) to project probable climate change shifts (Tuanmu et al., 2013;Li et al., 2014;Gong et al., 2016). Since agriculture is the major industry in this area and it has been designated a base of grain production in China, large-scale, industrial projects have rarely been implemented. ...
... Focusing on meeting the demand of new bamboo products will allow Indian bamboo industry to grow at a rapid rate (Jiang and Nie, 2007;Li and Kobayashi, 2004) 6. Challenges and future prospects of bamboo clustering in India India has more bamboo resources than China (Fig. S3), but the export value of China is higher. Indian bamboo industry has faced significant challenges, such as lack of awareness, large bamboo bearing area under no harvest restrictions (forest area), no standard policy for bamboo farming, transport restrictions, improper selection of species without the knowledge of climate and harvesting age (Tuanmu et al., 2013), market availability, not following the global standardization requirement (Hou et al., 2009), poor quality managements, no standard compliance for quality improvement. India has 160 species with very limited species having DNA bar-coding and sequencing (Dev et al., 2020;Kress et al., 2015) which can be helpful for their certification and studying the flowering patterns. ...
... Multiple studies have predicted drastic changes in giant panda's future distribution (Tuanmu et al 2012, Songer et al 2012, Wang et al 2018. However, predictions vary greatly due to the choice of analytical tools, the uncertainty of climate change scenarios, complex interactions among giant pandas, bamboo, and various environmental constraints (Huang et al 2018b). ...
The role of climate and aclimatic factors on species distribution has been debated widely among ecologists and conservationists. It is often difficult to attribute empirically observed changes in species distribution to climatic or aclimatic factors. Giant pandas ( A. melanoleuca ) provide a rare opportunity to study the impact of climatic and aclimatic factors, particularly the food sources on predicting the distribution changes in the recent decade, as well-documented information on both giant panda and bamboos exist. Here, we ask how the climate metrics compare to the bamboo suitability metric in predicting the giant panda occurrences outside the central areas in the Qinling Mountains during the past decade. We also seek to understand the relative importance of different landscape-level variables in predicting giant panda emigration outside areas of high giant panda densities. We utilize data from the 3rd and 4th National Giant Panda Surveys (NGPSs) for our analysis. We evaluate the performance of the species distribution models trained by climate, bamboo suitability, and the combination of the two. We then at 4 spatial scales identify the optimal models for predicting giant panda emigration between the 3rd and the 4th NGPSs using a list of landscape-level environmental variables. Our results show that the models utilizing the bamboo suitability alone consistently outperform the bioclimatic and the combined models; the distance to high giant panda density core area and bamboo suitability show high importance in predicting expansion probability across all four scales. Our results also suggest that the extrapolated bamboo distribution using bamboo occurrence data can provide a practical and more reliable alternative to predict potential expansion and emigration of giant panda along the range edge. It suggests that restoring bamboo forests within the vicinity of high giant panda density areas is likely a more reliable strategy for supporting shifting giant panda populations.
... Prior studies have found that GCMs induce as much variation in model results as RCPs (Wright et al. 2014), but without following a predictable outcome. As others have previously found (McKenney et al. 2011, Tuanmu 2012, Thorne et al. 2013, Wright et al. 2014, Goberville et al. 2015, the choice of GCM had over a 10-fold impact on predicted range loss. Variation between predictions using different GCMs was more pronounced when employing the mechanistic model, which is likely explained by the finer temporal scale of environmental data necessary for the mechanistic model. ...
Forecasting the effects of climate change on species and populations is a fundamental goal of conservation biology, especially for montane endemics which seemingly are under the greatest threat of extinction given their association with cool, high elevation habitats. Species distribution models (also known as niche models) predict where on the landscape there is suitable habitat for a species of interest. Correlative niche modeling, the most commonly employed approach to predict species' distributions, relies on correlations between species' localities and current environmental data. This type of model could spuriously forecast less future suitable habitat because species' current distributions may not adequately represent their thermal tolerance, and future climate conditions may not be analogous to current conditions. We compared the predicted distributions for three montane species of Plethodon salamanders in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North America using a correlative modeling approach and a mechanistic model. The mechanistic model incorporates species‐specific physiology, morphology and behavior to predict an annual energy budget on the landscape. Both modeling approaches performed well at predicting the species' current distributions and predicted that all species could persist in habitats at higher elevation through 2085. The mechanistic model predicted more future suitable habitat than the correlative model. We attribute these differences to the mechanistic approach being able to model shifts in key range‐limiting biological processes (changes in surface activity time and energy costs) that the correlative approach cannot. Choice of global circulation model (GCM) contributed significantly to distribution predictions, with a tenfold difference in future suitability based on GCM, indicating that GCM variability should be either directly included in models of species distributions or, indirectly, through the use of multi‐model ensemble averages. Our results indicate that correlative models are over‐predicting habitat loss for montane species, suggesting a critical need to incorporate mechanisms into forecasts of species' range dynamics.
... In general, the Bashania fargesii bamboo is mainly distributed in low altitudes, ranging from 900 to 1900 m asl, whereas Fargesia qinlingensis bamboo is typically found at high elevations from 1800 to 3000 m asl. Fargesia dracocephala bamboo overlaps these latter altitude distributions with a range between 1100 to 2300 m asl (Tuanmu et al. 2013). In our study area in the Qinling Mountains, the wild giant pandas mainly live in Foping NR and the Huayang district in the central mountains, while the captive giant pandas live in the Louguantai NFP ( Fig. 1). ...
High concentrations of heavy metals in the environment threaten the quality of ecosystems and the health of human beings and animals. Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), which is endemic to China and a global conservation icon, has the largest density in the Qinling Mountains. This paper investigated the spatiotemporal variation of heavy metal concentrations in soil (N = 44) at the regional scale with three zones of urban areas, mountain edges, and central mountains, the temporal variation of heavy metal concentrations in three bamboo species (N = 19) and two types of feces (N = 10), and assessed the ecological risk and health risk for giant pandas and their habitat in the Qinling Mountains. The results showed that the median concentrations of studied eight heavy metals mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), and cadmium (Cd) in soil exceeded the background values of Shaanxi Province except Pb. The median concentrations of Hg, Zn, Cr, Pb, and Cd in bamboo surpassed the reference standard (RS) of national food safety limits in vegetables for human intake, but the concentration of Zn was within the nutrient range in the bamboo plants. Heavy metals were enriched more in feces of captive than the wild giant pandas, which illustrated either higher ingestion or lower digestibility for captive giant panda. Ecological risk assessment of soil by the geo-accumulation index (Igeo) and risk index (RI) showed strong pollution by Hg and moderate pollution by Cd. Health risk assessment by the hazard index (HI) showed a potential to strong risk for giant pandas exposed to Pb, As, and Hg. In addition, the concentrations of heavy metals in feces showed a higher exposure risk for captive giant pandas than wild giant pandas. We suggest that attention should be paid to and all effective measurements should be taken for reducing the emission of Hg, As, Pb, and Cd in the study area.
... We know that human use can have both positive and negative effects on bamboo regeneration 2,29 , but the effects of climate change on Y. alpina have not been studied at all. However, we know that VNP experiences changes in both temperature and rainfall 30 , important determinants of the distribution of Y. alpina 27,31,32 , and thus we do predict effects of climate change on Y. alpina regeneration, similar to the declines in regeneration following climate change seen in other bamboo species 3,4 . ...
The African montane bamboo Yushania alpina provides both habitat and food for many species in the Albertine Rift region. In Volcanoes National Park (VNP), Rwanda, it is especially important as a key food resource for the Endangered mountain gorilla Gorilla beringei beringei and Endangered golden guenon Cercopithecus mitis kandti. We examined temporal and spatial variation in bamboo shoots regeneration and consumption by primates, monitored between 2013 and 2018 in 82 16-m2 plots located along transects in VNP. Our analyses revealed a decline in vegetative regeneration of bamboo in recent years, which is mirrored by a decline in bamboo shoot consumption by primates; but an increase in proportional intake. Local declines in regeneration are potentially due to high intensities of herbivory, decreased amounts of rainfall during growing seasons, and natural processes that form part of the life cycle of bamboo. Moreover, spatial variation in bamboo regeneration can be explained by elevation, as well as by stand-level variation in soil acidity, vegetation density, and the density of dead bamboo culms. We discuss the potential mechanisms underlying observed temporal and spatial variations and outline possible effects of a decline in bamboo regeneration for primates and other aspects of biodiversity in VNP.
... Secondly, we chose the Liangshan Mountains as a study region because it is located in the southernmost part of the current panda range and contains approximately only 6% of the wild panda population (State Forestry Administration, 2015). These factors mean that rapid climate change and human disturbances could make this population at a greater risk of extinction, warranting increased research and conservation efforts (State Forestry Administration, 2015; Tuanmu et al., 2013). Thirdly, due to environmental degradations, the local government has formulated a series of protection policies. ...
Through decades of conservation efforts at the national and worldwide scales, the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) has been downgraded from “endangered” to “vulnerable” on the IUCN Red List. The decision has not gone unquestioned, however. Although the population has increased, pandas still face serious human disturbances (e.g., livestock grazing and logging). Human disturbance is a crucial factor affecting the distribution of wildlife and their habitats, and evaluating the change of habitat quality in response to this disturbance is vital to wildlife conservation. However, the quantification of human activity variables that result in habitat changes has been rare. To fill this knowledge gap, we used human disturbance (i.e., livestock grazing, logging, farming, collection of bamboo shoots, collection of medicinal plants, road construction), environmental (i.e., forest cover, elevation, slope) and panda GPS locational data to evaluate panda habitat suitability and space use, the impact of human disturbance on panda habitat, and the distribution characteristics of human disturbances over time. Our results show that pandas' habitat suitability has improved, with substantial areas of stabilizing and increasing habitat across our Liangshan Mountains study area between the 3rd national survey of the giant panda (2000) to the 4th national survey of the giant panda (2012). The percent contribution of human disturbance variables to MaxEnt panda habitat suitability models decreased greatly between the 3rd and 4th survey (93.6% to 59.5%), which was especially driven by the decrease in logging's contribution (78% to 19%). The percent contribution of environmental variables consequently increased (6.4% to 40.5%), the largest growth occurring in the forest cover variable (2.7% to 14.2%). Our results also indicate that panda space use expanded between the national surveys. It is concerning that human disturbances are still widely distributed and the percent contribution of some disturbance variables to panda habitat suitability increased. For example, livestock grazing went from a 1.4% to 13.1% contribution between the 3rd and 4th national surveys, and indicates a need to strengthen management in this area. The methods used in this study could also be applied to the assessment of human disturbance effects on habitat quality for other species, and our results provide scientific support to relevant management departments for wildlife and biodiversity conservation in South-central China.
... The influence of climate change on giant panda will be multifactorial, but early models show that the species success will be closely linked to availability to bamboo (Tuanmu et al. 2013). A primary concern related to changes in the distribution of bamboo is that reserve boundaries may no longer hold adequate resources to sustain growing panda populations, with models predicting declines of habitat ranging from 37 to 100% Li et al. 2015;Shen et al. 2015). ...
The dramatic growth of the captive giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population exemplifies how the application of scientific findings to animal care and reproductive management can improve conservation breeding outcomes. Detailed behavioral studies of giant panda estrus, pregnancy and cub rearing have demonstrated the importance of husbandry management that supports natural reproductive behavior to enhance breeding success. Natural breeding has been valuably augmented by the development of assisted reproductive techniques founded through detailed studies of the reproductive physiology of the giant panda and outlining fundamental information about reproductive seasonality, male fertility and characterization of the estrous cycle. The resultant holistic understanding of giant panda reproduction has improved reproductive success in the captive population to such an extent that it is now self-sustaining and provides surplus animals for reintroduction. Despite these significant advances, there are knowledge gaps and remaining challenges to be addressed. Pregnancy detection remains the single biggest challenge when determining if natural mating or assisted breeding have been successful. Because pregnancy can only be determined in the few weeks prior to parturition, there are gaps in understanding and detecting delayed implantation and early embryonic loss. Additionally, dynamic management practices and standard of care for reproductive assistance needs to be developed. Only large breeding centers in China have the ability to promote normal reproductive behaviors and allow mate choice for the giant panda. These challenges need to be addressed in the near future in order to maintain a self-sustaining, genetically diverse and behaviorally competent captive population. This chapter documents the development of successful giant panda managed breeding programs by focusing on three key areas, (1) the development of science-driven reproductive techniques to improve fecundity in a species where the mating system was poorly understood, (2) how targeted research and adaptive management of social settings surrounding estrus and breeding improved reproductive success, and (3) insights and solutions to challenges faced across the program’s history with future directions for research.
... It was reported that limited habitat range available for red panda in eastern Himalayas will shrink faster than they can accommodate resulting into possible extinction because of climate change effects. The impact of climate change on understory bamboo species indicates positive correlation which will lead to potential shortage of food for red pandas in their habitat (Tuanmu, et al., 2013). In the entire Himalayas, the rate of warming is likely to increase with increasing altitude, at least in Bhutan, Nepal, and Himachal Pradesh (Shrestha, 2009). ...
RED PANDA CONSERVATION
ACTION PLAN FOR BHUTAN
(2018-2023)
“Ensuring the future of Red Panda landscapes through
national and regional collaboration”
NATURE CONSERVATION DIVISION
Department of Forests and Park Services
Ministry of Agriculture and Forests
Bhutan
... It provides some critically endangered animals (e.g. Giant panda of China and Great bamboo lemur of Madagascar) with shelter and food (Wright et al. 2008;Tuanmu et al. 2013). To better assess the economic and environmental value of bamboo, area estimation and distribution are important considerations. ...
Bamboo is an important plant not only because of its vital role in supporting biodiversity and land restoration, but also due to its contribution to poverty eradication. Although remote sensing has an advantage for monitoring vegetation, bamboo mapping is challenging due to the spectral similarity between bamboo and forest types. To overcome difficulties in bamboo mapping, we experimented with a phenology-based approach using dense Landsat time series data in Hainan Island, China. We constructed temporal profiles of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Green Chlorophyll Vegetation Index (GCVI), and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) for estimating the phenological variation among bamboo and adjacent forest types. We then compared the classification results under an all-season feature set and single-season feature sets. Our results indicated that the phenological variations of bamboo differed greatly from adjacent forest types, implying a good potential for bamboo identification. Compared to the conventional spectra-based approach, these results also emphasized the importance of phenological features. Validation using the k-fold (k = 10) approach showed this experiment achieved reasonable levels of accuracy for bamboo mapping (PA = 88.8%; UA = 74.6%). A bamboo distribution map in Hainan Island is useful to resource inventory in the second largest island in China. The success of the method in this tropical region suggests that it might be applicable to other parts of the tropical world.
... Grazing has degraded Wanglang Nature Reserve (Li et al., 2017) and giant pandas were trapped in snares poachers set for musk deer (Schaller, 1987). Besides land-use change and fragmentation, climate change will also likely affect giant pandas through habitat degradation and a predicted substantial reduction of three dominant bamboo species in the Qinling Mountains during the 21st century (Tuanmu et al., 2013). As with other ecosystems, direct human activities and climate change are the two factors that can limit the recovery of the giant panda population and constrain its future (Malhi et al., 2014). ...
The IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from "endangered" to "vulnerable" that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species.
... Many bamboo species are vulnerable to climate change because of their unusual extended reproduction intervals, ranging from 10 to 120 years (Janzen, 1976), along with limited seed dispersal ability (Mao-Ning et al., 2012;Taylor, Reid, Zisheng, & Jinchu, 1991 Red pandas selected habitats differently in different bioclimatic conditions, although bamboo is the primary predictor of red panda distribution. This study suggests that the red panda is more of a habitat specialist than previously believed. ...
Red panda Ailurus fulgens, an endangered habitat specialist, inhabits a narrow distribution range in bamboo abundance forests along mountain slopes in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains. However, their habitat use may be different in places with different longitudinal environmental gradients, climatic regimes, and microclimate. This study aimed to determine the habitat variables affecting red panda distribution across different longitudinal gradients through a multivariate analysis. We studied habitat selection patterns along the longitudinal gradient in Nepal's Himalaya which is grouped into the eastern, central, and western complexes. We collected data on red panda presence and habitat variables (e.g., tree richness, canopy cover, bamboo abundance, water availability, tree diameter, tree height) by surveys along transects throughout the species’ potential range. We used a multimodal inference approach with a generalized linear model to test the relative importance of environmental variables. Although the study showed that bamboo abundance had a major influence, habitat selection was different across longitudinal zones. Both canopy cover and species richness were unimportant in eastern Nepal, but their influence increased progressively toward the west. Conversely, tree height showed a decreasing influence on habitat selection from Eastern to Western Nepal. Red panda's habitat selection revealed in this study corresponds to the uneven distribution of vegetation assemblages and the dry climatic gradient along the eastern-western Himalayas which could be related to a need to conserve energy and thermoregulate. This study has further highlighted the need of importance of bamboo conservation and site-specific conservation planning to ensure long-term red panda conservation. © 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
... Over the past 20 years, the number of giant panda reserves has greatly increased 36 but human activities continue to encroach on panda habitat, and the nature of these activities continues to change, meaning new challenges for the species and a different suite of behavioral impacts and interactions 46 . Additionally, climate change projections suggest that the resources within reserves may not be stable 62,63 , and we may expect to see a lag between panda occupancy and adequate foraging in habitats that are reducing in quality over time. Simply being able to monitor movement along with foraging and active behaviors will greatly improve our understanding of the proximate impact of these threats on species. ...
For translocated animals, behavioral competence may be key to post-release survival. However, monitoring behavior is typically limited to tracking movements or inferring behavior at a gross scale via collar-mounted sensors. Animal-bourne acoustic monitoring may provide a unique opportunity to monitor behavior at a finer scale. The giant panda is an elusive species of Ursid that is vulnerable to extinction. Translocation is an important aspect of the species’ recovery, and survival and recruitment for pandas likely hinge on behavioral competence. Here we tested the efficacy of a collar-mounted acoustic recording unit (ARU) to remotely monitor the behavior of panda mothers and their dependent young. We found that trained human listeners could reliably identify 10 behaviors from acoustic recordings. Through visual inspection of spectrograms we further identified 5 behavioral categories that may be detectable by automated pattern recognition, an approach that is essential for the practical application of ARU. These results suggest that ARU are a viable method for remotely observing behaviors, including feeding. With targeted effort directed towards instrumentation and computing advances, ARU could be used to document how behavioral competence supports or challenges post-release survival and recruitment, and allow for research findings to be adaptively integrated into future translocation efforts.
... The demand for agricultural products from the surrounding PAs may also be local, regional or global ( Liu et al., 2015b). Finally, invasive species, which threaten many PAs, may have their origins across the globe and climate change ( Tuanmu et al., 2012), a severe threat to many PAs, has its drivers distributed globally as well ( ). Pimm et al., 2014;Zhong et al., 2015 For many PAs, one of the most important ES is providing an attractive destination for nature-based tourism, which is both regional and global in origin. ...
... In addition, populations of R. bieti face a set of severe anthropogenic challenges in parts of its range in which large areas of primary forest have been converted into pastures for cattle grazing (Xiao et al., 2003). The negative environmental impacts of expanding pastures and the increased reliance by local villagers on livestock, which leads to a reduction in biodiversity, changes in soil nutrient composition, and a decrease in soil fertility and soil porosity (Reiners et al., 1994), are expected to further exacerbate the effects of climate change on R. bieti range contraction (Tuanmu et al., 2013), leading to a reduction in food availability, increased habitat fragmentation, and increased subpopulation isolation (Li et al., 2017). The expansion of cattle grazing in China also has had a negative effect on habitat availability for the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and threatens the long-term survival of this species (Li et al., 2017). ...
Correlational models are widely used to predict changes in species' distribution, but generally have failed to address the comprehensive effects of anthropogenic activities, climate change, habitat connectivity and gene flow on wildlife sustainability. Here, we used integrated approaches (MAXENT model, circuit model and genetic analysis) to assess and predict the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution, habitat connectivity, and genetic diversity of an endangered primate, Rhinopithecus bieti, from 2000 to 2050. We created six scenarios: climatic factors only (scenario-a), anthropogenic activities only (scenario-b), climatic factors and anthropogenic activities (scenario-c), plus three additional scenarios that included climatic factors and anthropogenic activities but controlled for individual anthropogenic activities (scenario-d: grazing, scenario-e: collecting, and scenario-f: grazing and collecting). The results indicate that areas of suitable habitat for R. bieti are expected to decline by 8.0%–22.4% from 2000 to 2050, with the collection of local forest products and the grazing of domesticated cattle as the primary drivers of landscape fragmentation and range contraction. If these anthropogenic activities are strictly controlled, however, the area of suitable habitat is predicted to increase by10.4%–14.3%. We also found that habitats vulnerable to human disturbance were principally located in areas of low habitat connectivity resulting in limited migration opportunities and increased loss of genetic diversity among R. bieti living in these isolated subpopulations. Thus, we suggest that effective management policies to protect this species include prohibiting both livestock grazing and the collecting of forest products. Although our study focuses on a single primate species, the conservation modeling approaches we presented have wide applicability to a broad range of threatened mammalian and avian taxa that currently inhabit a limited geographic range and are affected by anthropogenic activities (e.g. collecting, grazing, hunting), loss of habitat connectivity, reduced genetic diversity, and the effects of climate change.
... Less well understood are the current and future impacts of climate change. A number of climate change models project substantive impacts on pandas' primary food source, bamboo, and a subsequent range constriction and significant panda population declines (Fan et al., 2014;Li et al., 2015;Songer, Delion, Biggs, & Huang, 2011;Tuanmu et al., 2013;Zang et al., 2017). ...
Long‐term data on populations, threats, and habitat‐use changes are fundamentally important for conservation policy and management decisions affecting species, but these data are often in short supply. Here, we analyze survey data from 57,087 plots collected in approximately three‐fourths of the giant panda's (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) distributional range during China's national surveys conducted in 1999–2003 and 2011–2014. Pandas associated preferentially with several ecological factors and avoided areas impacted by human activities, such as roads, livestock, mining, and tourism. Promise is shown by dramatic declines in logging rates, but is counterbalanced with recently emerging threats. Pandas have increasingly utilized secondary forest as these forests recovered under protective measures. Pandas have undergone a distributional shift to higher elevations, despite the elevational stability of their bamboo food source, perhaps in response to a similar upward shift in the distribution of livestock. Our findings showcase robust on‐the‐ground data from one of the largest‐scale survey efforts worldwide for an endangered species and highlight how science and policy have contributed to this remarkable success story, and help frame future management strategies.
... forests will mitigate against climate change impacts for giant pandas and other species of wildlife, and thus managers and policy makers are encouraged to prioritize preservation of large old trees in panda habitat (Zhang et al., 2011). Some models have forecast that loss of bamboo habitat for foraging will impact giant panda populations Tuanmu et al., 2013;Zhang et al., 2017); however, it is possible that climate change-induced distributional shifts in the various species of bamboo adapted to different elevations will result in no net loss to bamboo forage , since pandas are not specialists on particular species of bamboo (Schaller et al., 1985). Our findings highlight the potential importance of conserving den cavities and large old trees for mitigating against other negative consequences of climate change for pandas. ...
Small features in ecological systems are often underrepresented in conservation monitoring, management and policy. Tree cavities and other forms of refuge play disproportionately large ecological roles due to their importance for shelter and rearing vulnerable offspring. Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) cubs are highly altricial, and dependent on dens. In Fengtongzai—a reserve with cavity-containing old growth forest—we measured 19 structural and microhabitat variables in potential tree dens. We also established data loggers in rock cavities in Foping Nature Reserve (which due to logging does not contain old growth) and tree cavities in Fengtongzai to monitor temperature and humidity inside and outside dens to evaluate microclimatic buffering. Fengtongzai pandas selected tree dens that were better concealed, with large interiors and entrances but smaller entrance to interior ratios. Microclimate inside dens differed dramatically from ambient conditions outside: in cold weather dens were warmer, in hot weather dens were cooler, dens were less humid and dens had more stable microclimates. Dens used by maternal pandas were warmer, drier and less variable than tree and rock cavities that were not used. Tree dens showed better capacity to buffer against extremes of temperature and humidity than did cave dens. Our findings have important conservation implications, including the value of den sites and the need for better monitoring and management. Specifically, management practices that preserve large old trees may increase carrying capacity and any experimentation with artificial dens as a conservation intervention should reference our findings on structural and microclimatic characteristics of preferred den sites.
... Therefore, it is necessary for screening variables to run SDMs. There are various selection techniques such as expert knowledge method [27,62], pair-wise correlation analyses [72], X 2 test [73], PCA analysis [74], and jackknife analyses [75][76][77][78]. In our study, we used jackknife test and Pearson's correlation coefficient to select variables. ...
Qinghai spruce forests play a key role in water conservation in the dry region of northwest China. So, it is necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on the species to implement adaptation strategies. Based on the four-emission scenario (i.e., RCP2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report, in the study, we predicted the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy (Maxent) model. Seven variables, selected from 22 variables according to correlation analysis combining with their contribution rates to the distribution, are used to simulate the potential distribution of the species under current and future scenarios. Simulated results are validated by area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results demonstrate that elevation, mean temperature of wettest quarter, annual mean temperature, and mean diurnal range are more important in dominating the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce. Ratios of the suitable area to the total study area are 34.3% in current climate condition, 34% in RCP2.6, 33.9% in RCP4.5, 33.8% in RCP6.0, and 30.5% in RCP8.5, respectively. The warmer the climate condition is, the more area of higher suitable classification is changed to that of lower suitable classification. The ratios of real distribution area in simulated unsuitable class to the real distribution area change from 4.3% (60.7 km2) in the current climate to 13% (185 km2) in RCP8.5, suggesting that the real distribution area may decrease in the future. We conclude that there is a negative effect of climate change on the distribution of Qinghai spruce forest. The result can help decision-makers to draft adaptation countermeasures based on climate change.
... The new protected areas in these mountains can also serve to strengthen the linkages between different nature reserves and connect isolated populations. Climate change may significantly reduce the area of giant panda habitat (Fan et al., 2014;Songer et al., 2012;Yan et al., 2017) and food (bamboo) supplies (Tuanmu et al., 2012) in panda reserves in the future. The ongoing climate change occurring in the 21st century could drive the bamboo species to higher altitudes and northwards in distribution. ...
... The demand for agricultural products from the surrounding PAs may also be local, regional or global (Liu et al., 2015b). Finally, invasive species, which threaten many PAs, may have their origins across the globe and climate change (Tuanmu et al., 2012), a severe threat to many PAs, has its drivers distributed globally as well (Pimm et al., 2014;Zhong et al., 2015). ...
The relationships between biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services (ES) are widely debated. However, it is still not clear how biodiversity conservation and ES interact with different strategies in and surrounding protected areas (PAs), the cornerstone for biodiversity conservation. Here, we present results on the interplay between biodiversity conservation and nature-based tourism (a cultural ES), while controlling for environmental and socioeconomic factors in and surrounding terrestrial PAs worldwide. Results indicate that nature-based tourism is more frequent in PAs that are of higher biodiversity, older, larger, more accessible from urban areas and at higher elevation. High population density surrounding PAs and national income levels are also major socioeconomic factors related to nature-based tourism. Furthermore, PAs managed mainly for biodiversity conservation have nearly 35% more visitors than those managed for mixed use. Strict management for biodiversity is also associated with increased biodiversity. These results show the importance of biodiversity in addressing nature-based tourism and suggest this interrelationship could be altered by different management strategies used by PAs.
... The spatial distribution of staple food bamboos (SFB) for giant panda is vital to population stability and habitat suitability [5][6][7]. With increases in climate change and human disturbances, the threats to habitats of panda are very insensitive [8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. However, we still have very limited knowledge of how environmental factors and underlying mechanisms determine the distribution of panda, even though we have known the distribution of panda is related to the distribution of SFB. ...
Potassium (K), one of main essential macronutrient elements in soil, is vital to the growth and metabolism of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and its staple food bamboos (SFB). However, it is still unknown how the content of K in soil shapes giant panda distribution. To address this problem, we use geographical information system (GIS) and regression analysis to measure their spatial distribution data and analyze their relationships. Our results show a unimodal relationship between the species richness of SFB and K (R² = 0.90, P<0.01), a significant positive linear correlation relationship between SFB and giant panda (R² = 0.47, P<0.01), and a significant unimodal relationship between the K and giant panda (R² = 0.58, P<0.01). Moreover, results reveal that the giant panda may tend to select habitats with K in the soil ranging from 2.58 to 3.14 (mg/g). Our study also highlights the important effect of the eco-geological environment in shaping the distribution of giant panda. Our study suggests that it is essential to incorporate the beneficial and harmful element factors of an eco-geological environment into wildlife habitat research and management. It should improve on habitat estimation, corridor establishment, and biodiversity conservation.
... Human exposure to natural disasters has been increasing rapidly over the past decades due to factors such as human-induced ecological degradation and climate change (Cutter et al., 2015;Field, 2012;Guha-Sapir et al., 2012;Simpson et al., 2016;Tuanmu et al., 2013). These disasters, like the series of hurricanes that struck the Caribbean and the North American mainland in fall 2017, can have massive local and regional effects. ...
Rural areas around the world are increasingly exposed to natural disasters. To guide management intervention for sustainable development after natural disasters, scientists and policymakers need a better understanding of the linkages between livelihood changes after natural disasters and recovery outcomes. Despite the growing body of disaster research, systematic evaluation of the relationship between post-disaster changes in rural livelihoods and recovery outcomes is rare, largely due to the lack of relevant data. By taking advantage of the long-term data collection and research conducted in China's Wolong Nature Reserve (Wolong), we empirically evaluated livelihood changes after the catastrophic 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and how those changes are linked to the recovery of human well-being. Our results show that households' livelihood portfolios in Wolong conspicuously changed after the earthquake and that human well-being had been recovering. However, we found most of these livelihood changes negatively affected, instead of facilitated, human well-being recovery. The enriched understanding of the linkages between post-disaster livelihood changes and recovery outcomes has important management implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goals amid natural disasters in Wolong and beyond.
To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in Europe, one target is to protect 30% of land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network 1,2 . The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting one of the most extensive natural areas and hotspots of plant biodiversity in Europe 3,4 . Here, we assess the robustness of the conservation network to safeguard the European Alps’ flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. Overall, we predict a shift in conservation need from lower to higher elevations through time as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait, and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. Future expansions of the protected area network should ensure strong elevational connections, even those that span borders.
Malaria occurrence is highly related to the geographical distribution of Anopheles dirus (An. dirus) in the South-East Asia Region and Western Pacific Region (SEAR/WPR). Future climate change has been shown to alter the geographical distribution of malaria vectors. However, few studies have investigated the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of An. dirus in the SEAR/WPR. We considered future climate and land-use data under two climate change scenarios for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and population data from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), by using three machine learning models, namely, Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Maximum entropy (Maxent) to project the geographical distribution of An. Dirus and to estimate the exposed population. A pseudo-absence dataset was generated based on the relationships between model performance and the distance from the pseudo-absence point to the occurrence point in order to improve model accuracy for projection of the Environmentally Suitable Area (ESA) and exposed human population. The results show that the pseudo-absence data corresponding to the distance of 250 km are appropriate for modeling. The RF method ultimately proved to have the highest accuracy. The predicted ESA of An. dirus would mainly be distributed across Myanmar, Thailand, the southern and eastern part of India, Vietnam, the northern part of Cambodia, and the southern part of Laos. The future ESA is estimated to be reduced under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario. In the 2070s under RCP 8.5, the reduction of ESA is even greater, especially in Thailand (loss of 35.49 10,000 square kilometers), Myanmar (26.24), Vietnam (17.52), and India (15), which may prevent around 282.6 million people from the risk of malaria under the SSP3 scenarios in the SEAR/WPR. Our predicted areas and potential impact groups for An. dirus under future climate change may provide new insights into regional malaria transmission mechanisms and deployment of malaria control measures based on local conditions in the SEAR/WPR’s.
Rapid industrialization and urbanization have created a substantial urban-rural gradient for various pollutants. The Qinling Mountains are highly important in terms of biodiversity, providing habitat for giant pandas, which are endemic to China and are a widely recognized symbol for conservation. Whether polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure risks regarding in situ animal conservation zones are affected by environmental pollution or even enhanced by the mountain-trapping effect requires further research. Our group carried out a large-scale investigation on the area ranging from Xi'an to Hanzhong across the giant panda habitat in the Qinling Mountains by collecting atmosphere, soil, bamboo, and fecal samples from different sites over a two-year period. The total toxicity of atmospheric PAHs and the frequencies of soil PAHs above effect range low (ERL) values showed a decreasing trend from urban areas to the central mountains, suggesting a distance effect from the city. The proportions of total 5- and 6-ring PAHs in the atmosphere were higher in the central mountainous areas than in the urban areas, while this difference was reversed in the soil. Health risk assessments showed that the incremental lifetime carcinogenic risks (ILCR) of PAH exposure by bamboo ingestion ranged from 2.16 × 10⁻⁴ to 3.11 × 10⁻⁴, above the critical level of 10⁻⁴. Bamboo ingestion was the main driver of the PAH exposure risks. The concentration difference between bamboo and fecal samples provided a reference for the level of PAHs absorbed by the panda digestive system. Since the Qinling Mountains possess the highest density of giant pandas and provide habitats to many other endangered animal and plant species, we should not ignore the probability of health risks posed by PAHs. Monitoring the pollution level and reducing the atmospheric emissions of toxic pollutants are recommended actions. Further detailed research should also be implemented on pandas' health effects of contaminant exposure.
Bears have fascinated people since ancient times. The relationship between bears and humans dates back thousands of years, during which time we have also competed with bears for shelter and food. In modern times, bears have come under pressure through encroachment on their habitats, climate change, and illegal trade in their body parts, including the Asian bear bile market. The IUCN lists six bears as vulnerable or endangered, and even the least concern species, such as the brown bear, are at risk of extirpation in certain countries. The poaching and international trade of these most threatened populations are prohibited, but still ongoing. Covering all bears species worldwide, this beautifully illustrated volume brings together the contributions of 200 international bear experts on the ecology, conservation status, and management of the Ursidae family. It reveals the fascinating long history of interactions between humans and bears and the threats affecting these charismatic species.
Bears have fascinated people since ancient times. The relationship between bears and humans dates back thousands of years, during which time we have also competed with bears for shelter and food. In modern times, bears have come under pressure through encroachment on their habitats, climate change, and illegal trade in their body parts, including the Asian bear bile market. The IUCN lists six bears as vulnerable or endangered, and even the least concern species, such as the brown bear, are at risk of extirpation in certain countries. The poaching and international trade of these most threatened populations are prohibited, but still ongoing. Covering all bears species worldwide, this beautifully illustrated volume brings together the contributions of 200 international bear experts on the ecology, conservation status, and management of the Ursidae family. It reveals the fascinating long history of interactions between humans and bears and the threats affecting these charismatic species.
Numerous dendro-climatic reconstructions have been developed for China, but there are still regions with limited data of this type. One region is the Qinling Mountains which is characterized by complex interactions between the mountains and climate. Presently, the subalpine region of the Qinling Mountains is covered by widespread forests and has great potential for dendroclimatological studies. Here we developed tree-ring width chronologies from two fir (Abies faxoniana) and one spruce (Picea brachytyla) sites in the Baishui River Nature Reserve, the western region of the Qinling Mountains, China. Climate response analysis reveals that radial growth of the fir site (TLD) is mainly controlled by temperature variations. The TLD chronology accounts for 32.7% of February-June temperature variance during the period 1959-2006. Using a linear regression approach, we reconstructed the February-June temperature of Wen County for the past 252 years. The cool periods are identified for AD. Wavelet analysis reveals the existence of some cycles (2.0-3.4, 5.7, 10.0 and 19.3 years). Spatial correlation analysis shows that the temperature reconstruction captures regional climatic variations over Central and Southwest China. The moving t-test indicated an abrupt warming change of our reconstruction occurred during the past 20 years. Overall, our study indicates the feasibility of combining tree-rings and the temperature to reconstruct large-scale temperature patterns over this area.
The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is one of the most endangered animals in the world and is recognized worldwide as a symbol for conservation. The Qinling subspecies of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca qinlingensis) is highly endangered; fewer than 350 individuals still inhabit the Qinling Mountains. Last year, China announced the establishment of the first Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) with a goal of restoring and connecting fragmented habitats; the proposal ignored the environmental pollution caused by economic development in panda habitats. The spatial distribution of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Hg, Cu, Zn, Mn, Cr, Ni and As) was analyzed in giant panda feces, soil, bamboo, and water in four of GPNP's functional areas at different altitudes and latitudes. Heavy metal pollution decreased with anthropogenic influences, from outside the park through the buffer and into the core area. Cu, Mn, Ni and Zn accumulated from natural sources; As, Hg and Cr were associated with fuel combustion; and Pb and Cd were associated with traffic and agriculture sources. The presence of heavy metals at high altitudes and latitudes in the proposed GPNP is due to emissions from Xi'an and other upwind industrial cities. We conclude that reducing emissions and heavy metal input should be included in the design of the GPNP. Policy interventions should consider functional zones planning, wind direction, reducing mining, and the abandonment of existing roads and farmland within the GPNP to reduce other direct human impacts on the Qinling panda.
The spatial pattern of live patches of Bashania fangiana after most stands flowered in 1983 in Wolong Natural Reserve, China were analyzed. Live patches were intensely clumped at small spatial scales and remained clumped up to scales of 14.4 km2. Discriminant function analysis of 281 randomly selected points with live or dead bamboo described by six environmental variables identified elevation and percentage forest cover as the most important variables separating sites with live and dead bamboo. Live bamboo was associated with sites >3200 m and with clearcut forest. These data suggest that stress at high altitudes and in open habitats retarded flowering by altering resource allocation patterns within clones. The life history of B. fangiana is also compared to expected life history traits of bamboos responding to evolutionary mechanisms that may promote mass-flowering in bamboos.
This review focuses on woody bamboos with the highest diversity recorded in the Asia-Pacific region where bamboos play a major role in ecosystem dynamics in many forests. Bamboos are among the least studied of all higher plants since they flower at long intervals and traditional plant taxonomy has relied heavily on floral characteristics. However, DNA sequencing and other new techniques of identification and classification are allowing for some resolution in bamboo phylogeny and systematics. These distinctions are important as domestic trade and subsistence use of 50 to 100 woody bamboo species are estimated to be worth US $ 4.5 billion per year globally. The genetic diversity of the remaining forest bamboos, of which many are highly susceptible to deforestation, is of much greater concern and an accurate information base is required as a foundation for policy and management decisions affecting bamboo. A programme to strengthen the Red List assessments of bamboo species status is also needed, one that prioritizes the assessment of species with the smallest estimated geographical ranges and least remaining habitat.
Culm (ramet) demography of two bamboos, Fargesia robusta and Bashania fangiana, was studied over 7 yr in southwest China to determine if. 1) ramet numbers remain relatively constant; 2) ramet mortality was constant; 3) density response was greater in spreading vs. compact clones; 4) extrinsic factors (e.g., predation, climate) influenced ramet dynamics; and 5) ramets that die are smaller than ones that live. Culm numbers remained relatively constant (+/-20%) in most plots, but culm numbers increased (> 20%) on some sites. Mortality of culms > 6 mo old over 7 yr was low and constant, but mortality of younger culms (less-than-or-equal-to 6 mo) was high and variable due to predation. Spreading clones had greater recruitment response to density than compact clones, but predation and climate may have diminished or amplified the observed demographic patterns. Predators and perhaps climate influenced culm demography, and culms that died were smaller than remaining live culms. The demography of the two bamboos we studied is compared to other clonal plants, including bamboos, to identify common processes controlling ramet demography.
The preferred bamboo food Bashania fangiana of the giant panda Ailuropoda melanoleuca mass-flowered and died in 1983 in Wolong Natural Reserve, Sichuan, China. The standing crop dropped by 82·2% as calculated by intensive mapping of the forest understorey. Pandas changed their feeding behaviour after the die-off, showing decreased selection for old shoots, and eating greater lengths from older culms. Two years after the die-off they began to eat significantly more of an alternative, lower elevation bamboo Fargesia robusta. The panda population was above the carrying capacity immediately after the die-off, but high shoot production and decreased numbers of pandas put it below carrying capacity by 1987. The study empirically establishes the importance of alternating bamboo foods for a panda population faced with a single-species flowering event. When expecting future bamboo die-offs, managers should assess local carrying capacities pre-flowering, and act with restraint in the application of panda rescues.
Despite a growing awareness that the herbaceous layer serves a special role in maintaining the structure and function of forests, this stratum remains an underappreciated aspect of forest ecosystems. In this article I review and synthesize information concerning the herb layer's structure, composition, and dynamics to emphasize its role as an integral component of forest ecosystems. Because species diversity is highest in the herb layer among all forest strata, forest biodiversity is largely a function of the herb-layer community. Competitive interactions within the herb layer can determine the initial success of plants occupying higher strata, including the regeneration of dominant overstory tree species. Furthermore, the herb layer and the overstory can become linked through parallel responses to similar environmental gradients. These relationships between strata vary both spatially and temporally. Because the herb layer responds sensitively to disturbance across broad spatial and temporal scales, its dynamics can provide important information regarding the site characteristics of forests, including patterns of past land-use practices. Thus, the herb layer has a significance that belies its diminutive stature.
Modelling strategies for predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species have often focused on the characterization of a species’ bioclimate envelope. A number of recent critiques have questioned the validity of this approach by pointing to the many factors other than climate that play an important part in determining species distributions and the dynamics of distribution changes. Such factors include biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal ability. This paper reviews and evaluates criticisms of bioclimate envelope models and discusses the implications of these criticisms for the different modelling strategies employed. It is proposed that, although the complexity of the natural system presents fundamental limits to predictive modelling, the bioclimate envelope approach can provide a useful first approximation as to the potentially dramatic impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is stressed that the spatial scale at which these models are applied is of fundamental importance, and that model results should not be interpreted without due consideration of the limitations involved. A hierarchical modelling framework is proposed through which some of these limitations can be addressed within a broader, scale-dependent context.
We developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution). The climate elements considered were monthly precipitation and mean, minimum, and maximum temperature. Input data were gathered from a variety of sources and, where possible, were restricted to records from the 1950-2000 period. We used the thin-plate smoothing spline algorithm implemented in the ANUSPLIN package for interpolation, using latitude, longitude, and elevation as independent variables. We quantified uncertainty arising from the input data and the interpolation by mapping weather station density, elevation bias in the weather stations, and elevation variation within grid cells and through data partitioning and cross validation. Elevation bias tended to be negative (stations lower than expected) at high latitudes but positive in the tropics. Uncertainty is highest in mountainous and in poorly sampled areas. Data partitioning showed high uncertainty of the surfaces on isolated islands, e.g. in the Pacific. Aggregating the elevation and climate data to 10 arc min resolution showed an enormous variation within grid cells, illustrating the value of high-resolution surfaces. A comparison with an existing data set at 10 arc min resolution showed overall agreement, but with significant variation in some regions. A comparison with two high-resolution data sets for the United States also identified areas with large local differences, particularly in mountainous areas. Compared to previous global climatologies, ours has the following advantages: the data are at a higher spatial resolution (400 times greater or more); more weather station records were used; improved elevation data were used; and more information about spatial patterns of uncertainty in the data is available. Owing to the overall low density of available climate stations, our surfaces do not capture of all variation that may occur at a resolution of 1 km, particularly of precipitation in mountainous areas. In future work, such variation might be captured through knowledge-based methods and inclusion of additional co-variates, particularly layers obtained through remote sensing.
Interactions between forest canopy characteristics and plants in the forest understory are important determinants of forest community structure and dynamics. In the highlands of southwestern, China the dwarf bamboo Bashania fangiana Yi is an understory dominant beneath a mixed canopy of the evergreen Abies faxoniana (Rheder & Wilson) and the deciduous Betula utilis (D. Don). The goal of this study was to better understand the role of bamboo dominance, canopy characteristics, and periodic bamboo dieback on forest development. To achieve this goal, we measured tree seedling, tree saplings, and trees, forest canopy characteristics, and bamboo cover in permanent forest (n = 4) and gap plots (n = 31) in a mixed A. faxoniana and B. utilis forest in Sichuan, China. Dwarf bamboos died off in 1983 in the gap plots, and in three of the four forest plots. Forest development was assessed for the period 1984–1996. The seedling bank in forest and gap plots increased after bamboo die-off. A. faxoniana seedlings increased more than B. utilis in forest plots; the opposite pattern characterized gap plots. The proportion of seedlings on raised micro-sites on the forest floor also changed and new seedling were more abundant on the forest floor. By 1996, bamboo seedling cover and biomass had recovered to ca. 45% or their pre-flowering values. Rates of bamboo seedling recovery were faster beneath canopy gaps and deciduous trees than beneath forest or evergreen trees. Tree mortality exceeded recruitment in plots with dense bamboo; the opposite pattern was found in the plot with little bamboo. The mortality rate for B. utilis trees (2.4% year−1) was higher than that for A. faxoniana (0.8% year−1) and forests with dense bamboos became more open over the census period. Tree mortality was size-dependent and intermediate sized trees had the lowest rates of mortality. Stand basal area increased mainly due to greater basal area gain than loss for A. faxoniana. Interactions between tree species life history, canopy type, and bamboo life-cycles create heterogeneous conditions that influence tree and bamboo regeneration and contribute to the coexistence of A. faxoniana and B. utilis in old-growth forests in southwestern China.
Forest inventory data is presented as the basis for a conceptual model of bamboo-dominated forest successional dynamics in southwestern Amazonia. Forest succession is arrested in stands dominated by bamboo (Guadua sarcocarpa, Londoño and Peterson) as demonstrated by data on tree size class distributions and seedling mortality. Mean percent mortality of tree seedlings (≥1 m height, <1 cm dbh) was over twice as high in forest plots dominated by bamboo (B+) versus forest plots without bamboo (B−). Soil texture data did not correlate with distribution of bamboo-dominated forest stands; however, bamboo-dominated stands do appear to be associated with perched water tables. Canopy light penetration, as calculated from hemispherical photographs, was significantly higher in B+ plots as compared with B− plots; thus competition for light does not appear to explain arrested succession.Data on soil water content and stem damage to tree seedlings and saplings suggests that root competition and mechanical crushing by bamboo may cause arrested forest succession. Soil water content (0–10 cm) was significantly lower in B+ plots. On average, over four times as many seedlings and saplings were classified as having stem damage in B+ plots as compared with B− plots. Saplings of a given dbh were on average 29% taller in B− plots than those in B+ plots. We propose that the occurrence of bamboo-dominated forests can be explained by an interplay between mechanical properties of soils, wind disturbance, and elevated rates of tree mortality in the presence of bamboo.
The fossil record tells us that many species shifted their geographic distributions during historic climate changes, but this record does not portray the complete picture of future range change in response to climate change. In particular, it does not provide information on how species interactions will affect range shifts. Therefore, we also need modern research to generate understanding of range change. This paper focuses on the role that species interactions play in promoting or preventing geographic ranges shifts under current and future climate change, and we illustrate key points using empirical case studies from an integrated study system. Case studies can have limited generalizability, but they are critical to defining possible outcomes under climate change. Our case studies emphasize host limitation that could reduce range shifts and enemy release that could facilitate range expansion. We also need improvements in modeling that explicitly consider species interactions, and this modeling can be informed by empirical research. Finally, we discuss how species interactions have implications for range management by people.
The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate.
Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median
rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade. These rates are approximately
two and three times faster than previously reported. The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest
levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes. However, individual
species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal
species traits and external drivers of change. Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual
species.
Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.
As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some "hotspots" of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option.
Culm (ramet) demography of two bamboos, Fargesia robusta and Bashania fangiana, was studied over 7 yr in southwest China to determine if: 1) ramet numbers remain relatively constant; 2) ramet mortality was constant; 3) density response was greater in spreading vs. compact clones; 4) extrinsic factors (e.g., predation, climate) influenced ramet dynamics; and 5) ramets that die are smaller than ones that live. Culm numbers remained relatively constant (±20%) in most plots, but culm numbers increased (>;20%) on some sites. Mortality of culms >;6 mo old over 7 yr was low and constant, but mortality of younger culms (≤6 mo) was high and variable due to predation. Spreading clones had greater recruitment response to density than compact clones, but predation and climate may have diminished or amplified the observed demographic patterns. Predators and perhaps climate influenced culm demography, and culms that died were smaller than remaining live culms. The demography of the two bamboos we studied is compared to other clonal plants, including bamboos, to identify common processes controlling ramet demography.
During its long historical, the giant panda has formed a highly specific feeding behavior, with bamboos and alpine bamboos forming its primary source of food. Referring to the bamboo resource in Qinling, The authors studied the edible bamboo species to find the preferences of captive giant pandas. From the study, it was found the giant pandas had a wider selection of feeding bamboo species. The significance test of difference showed diat die giant pandas ate the feeding bamboo species selectively. Further, Forage ration index was used to analyze the edible bamboo species preference of giant pandas. This included Preference, Avoidance and Random.
Vegetation research in boreal forests has tended to focus on the tree component, while little attention has been paid to understory components such as dwarf shrubs, mosses, and reindeer lichens. However, the productivity of understory vegetation is probably comparable to that of the trees. We review recent research in the boreal forest of northern Sweden to highlight the ecological importance of understory vegetation, both in the short term by influencing tree seedling regeneration, and in the longer term by affecting belowground processes such as decomposition, nutrient flow, and buildup of soil nutrients. Wildfire resulting from lightning strike is a primary determinant of understory vegetation, and as such is a major driver of forest community and ecosystem properties. Forest management practices that alter the fire regime and the composition of understory vegetation may have long-term consequences for both conservation goals and commercial forest productivity.
Abstract: The range-wide habitat status of many endangered species is unclear. We evaluated the status and spatial distribution of the habitat of the endangered giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) across its entire geo-graphic range (i.e., six mountain regions located in Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces, China) by inte-grating field and remotely sensed data to develop a habitat distribution model. Results suggest that current suitable habitat corresponds to ca. 1/4 of the habitat baseline (i.e., maximum amount of habitat possible). The highest proportion of suitable habitat relative to the baseline is in the Qinling mountain region. Overall, around 40% of the suitable habitat is inside nature reserves, but the proportion of habitat inside them varied among different mountain regions, ranging from ca. 17% (Lesser Xiangling) to ca. 66% (Qinling). The habitat model also predicted the occurrence of potentially suitable habitat outside the cur-rently accepted geographic range of the species, which should be further evaluated as potential panda reintroduction sites. Our approach is valuable for assessing the conservation status of the entire habitat of the species, for identifying areas with significant ecological roles (e.g., corridors), for identifying areas suitable for panda reintroductions, and for establishing specific conservation strategies in different parts of the giant panda geographic range. It might also prove useful for range-wide habitat analyses of many other endangered species around the world.
Coastal rainforests of southeast Alaska have relatively simple species composition but complex structures with high diversity of tree ages, sizes and forest canopy layers, and an abundant understory plant community. Wildlife and fisheries resources also play an important role in the ecological functioning of forest and aquatic systems. Clearcutting has greatly altered these forest ecosystems with significant decreases in structural diversity of forest stands and greatly reduced wildlife habitat. This paper synthesizes information on management options in older forests that have never been actively managed, and in younger forests to increase diversity of stand structures and their associated effects on biodiversity. Light to moderate levels of partial cutting in old-growth forests can maintain the original diversity of overstory stand structures and understory plant communities. In younger forests that develop after clearcutting, mixed alder-conifer stands provide more heterogeneous structures and significantly higher understory biomass than in pure conifer forests. Research has shown that red alder increases diversity and abundance of understory plants, and provides forage for deer and small mammals. Results also show a clear linkage between alder and improved invertebrate diversity in aquatic systems. A combination of light partial cutting in older forests along with inclusion of red alder in conifer-dominated forests could provide the greatest amount of diversity and maintain the complex stand structures that are an important component of these forest ecosystems.
The availability of detailed environmental data, together with inexpensive and powerful computers, has fueled a rapid increase in predictive modeling of species environmental requirements and geographic distributions. For some species, detailed presence/absence occurrence data are available, allowing the use of a variety of standard statistical techniques. However, absence data are not available for most species. In this paper, we introduce the use of the maximum entropy method (Maxent) for modeling species geographic distributions with presence-only data. Maxent is a general-purpose machine learning method with a simple and precise mathematical formulation, and it has a number of aspects that make it well-suited for species distribution modeling. In order to investigate the efficacy of the method, here we perform a continental-scale case study using two Neotropical mammals: a lowland species of sloth, Bradypus variegatus, and a small montane murid rodent, Microryzomys minutus. We compared Maxent predictions with those of a commonly used presence-only modeling method, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP). We made predictions on 10 random subsets of the occurrence records for both species, and then used the remaining localities for testing. Both algorithms provided reasonable estimates of the species’ range, far superior to the shaded outline maps available in field guides. All models were significantly better than random in both binomial tests of omission and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was almost always higher for Maxent, indicating better discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the species. The Maxent modeling approach can be used in its present form for many applications with presence-only datasets, and merits further research and development.
Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.
It is generally perceived that biodiversity is better protected from human activities after an area is designated as a protected area. However, we found that this common perception was not true in Wolong Nature Reserve (southwestern China), which was established in 1975 as a "flagship" protected area for the world-renowned endangered giant pandas. Analyses of remote sensing data from pre- and post-establishment periods indicate that the reserve has become more fragmented and less suitable for giant panda habitation. The rate of loss of high-quality habitat after the reserve's establishment was much higher than before the reserve was created, and the fragmentation of high-quality habitat became far more severe. After the creation of the reserve, rates of habitat loss and fragmentation inside the reserve unexpectedly increased to levels that were similar to or higher than those outside the reserve, in contrast to the situation before the reserve was created.
The Opportunity for the Giant Panda to Exist (Peking Univ. Press
- W Pan
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Shooting and growth of Bashania fargesii
- X Tian
Tian, X. Shooting and growth of Bashania fargesii. J. Bamboo Res. 8, 400–407 (1989).
High Resolution Statistically Downscaled Future Climate
- J Ramirez
- A Jarvis
Ramirez, J. & Jarvis, A. High Resolution Statistically Downscaled Future Climate
Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions
- S J Phillips
- R P Anderson
- R E Schapire
- SJ Phillips
Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P. & Schapire, R. E. Maximum entropy modeling
of species geographic distributions. Ecol. Model. 190, 231–259 (2006).
- Change Ipcc Climate
- M L Parry
- O F Canziani
- J P Palutikof
- P J Van Der Linden
- Hanson
IPCC Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
(eds Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. &
Hanson, C. E.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
The Giant Pandas of Wolong
- G B Schaller
- J Hu
- W Pan
- J Zhu
- GB Schaller