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Potential Risks of Climate Change on
Thermal Power Plants
Mohamad Makky
Quality Systems M. Eng Student,
Concordia University
Haytham Kalash
Thermal Power Plants Division
SNC-Lavalin
Abstract— the environmental challenges posed by the
accelerated changes in climate necessitate that electric power
generation utilities review their existing power plants
vulnerability to such changes and make sure that the designs for
future power plants to be more resilient to these changes. The
thermal powers plants are at risk due to the change in climate
since their efficiency and performance depend on air density,
ambient temperature and hydro-meteorological parameters.
Also, these power plants are vulnerable to potential damages due
to unusual violent phenomena caused by climate changes such as
floods and hurricanes. This paper will analyze the sensitivity of
thermal power plants to climate changes, the need for adaptive
capacity analysis and more resilient design of plants.
Index Terms— Thermal power plant; climate change;
vulnerability assessment; risk analysis; gas turbines
I. INTRODUCTION
There are many risks surrounding the operation of electric
power generation plants such as major accidents, global
terrorism, fuel cost fluctuations, changing weather conditions,
Carbon market insecurity, regulatory and political changes.
Those risks range from minor to major depending on the
nature, capacity and location of each generation plant. In a risk
survey of the European power sector, the risks from change
weather conditions were ranked as significant [1]. Electric
power generation plants are usually considered as main source
of emissions that drive greenhouse phenomenon and associated
with climate change risks. For example, electricity and heat
generation in Canada contributes 14.2% of the total
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions while electric power
industry contributes 33.1% of the total GHG in the USA as per
2009 figures [2]. However, the ongoing climate change is in
turn posing series of threats to the operation of electric power
generation plants. Therefore, the focus of studies related to
power generation was on how to minimize the emissions
leading greenhouse effect. The impacts of climate change on
the power generation sector itself were not under the focus as
compared to other vital sectors. However, the risks involved in
climate change that affect the electric generation section are
under scrutiny by utilities all over the globe due to the sever
impacts they may have.
II. GLOBAL INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY
There are mainly four types of such power plants: coal
powered petroleum powered, nuclear powered and natural gas
powered. Thermal power represents around 77% of the overall
global power generated.
Fig. 1. Global Installed Power Generation Capacity
The thermal power in Canada constitutes 37.59% of the
total generating capacity. However, the provinces of Ontario,
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia depend heavily on
thermal power generation. The dependency on thermal power
in the US is more prevailing since it constitutes 86% of the
total generating capacity [2].
III. MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Some of the recent impacts of the global climate change
that occurred in late 20th century and will continue in the 21th
century are increase in the areas affected by in many droughts,
increase of activities of intense tropical cyclone (especially in
North Atlantic region) and increased incidence of extreme high
sea level [3]. Future trends predict also precipitation decreases
in subtropical land regions, decreased water resources in many
semi-arid areas, including western U.S. and Mediterranean
basin, contraction of snow cover areas, increased thaw in
permafrost regions, decrease in sea ice extent, increased
frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and precipitation
increases in high latitudes [4].
Generating electric power using thermal energy from the
heat released whether by burning fuels (fossil or artificially
prepared) or by nuclear fission or from geothermal reservoirs
involves processes related to air intake and air or water
cooling. All types of these thermal power plants are affected in
different degrees by the climate changes especially those that
impact the cooling and those that can incur physical damages,
namely [5]:
•Increase in ambient and river water temperature
•Decrease in availability of cooling water
•Sea level rise (erosions, damages)
•Increase in frequency of severe weather events
(Flooding, Hurricanes, Extreme Winds, Extreme
Snowfall, Lightning, Subsidence / Landslide)
A study, however, shows that there will be minor impacts on
the overall world generation capacity due to climate changes
on thermal power plants, and it showed that by year 2100 the
world thermal electricity generation will be lower by only 8%
due to the impact of higher temperature [6].
IV. POWER PLANTS SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGES
A. Increase in ambient and river water temperature
The global ambient temperature increase in the past century
and is expected to increase in the coming years [3].
Fig. 2. Projected surface temperature changes for the early and
late 21st century relative to the period 1980–1999. [3]
Thermal power generation is mainly related to converting
thermal energy into mechanical energy then electrical mostly
through steam turbines which depend on thermodynamics of
the heat cycle. The efficiency of this process is called Carnot
efficiency and is determined by the temperature of the heat
source and the heat sink (air or water). The ideal efficiency is
given by [7]:
Carnot efficiency = (T source – T sink) / T source
Therefore, any increase in the temperature of the sink
which can be most the surrounding air or water river will result
into a decrease in efficiency of the plant.
Some studies estimated the effect of a rise in environment
temperature of 1 degree Celsius and predicted a reduction in
thermal power plant output of 0.1-0.2 percent due to a fall in
efficiency and, for high temperatures, with 0.9-1.1 percent due
to both reduced efficiency and reduced load [8].
The main finding is that the power output decrease by
about 0.45% and the thermal efficiency by approximately
0.12% for 1°C increase in cooling water extracted from
environment.
Gas turbine powered generation plants will be most
affected by the increase in ambient temperature as this impact
the cooling process. In the last century, the global surface
temperatures have increased about 0.74±0.18°C. The warming
has not been globally uniform. The recent warmth has been
greatest over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N
[9].
A mathematical model was developed by Koch and Vögele
[10] and Rübbelke and Vögele [11] to evaluate the effect of
water temperature rise and water density on the thermal power
plant performance, and two equations were put. Those
equations show that generation capability is inversely
proportional to the water temperature increase.
Fig. 3. Effect of ambient temperature on gas turbine
performance [12]
The increase of river water temperature causes limitation of
the capacity of generation of the thermal power plants, and this
potential increase of this temperature is a major threat to this
industry. The operation of 17 nuclear reactors in France was
altered during the 2003 heat wave either by reducing the
generation capacity or by shutting them down entirely [13].
It is expected that largest increases in mean water
temperature will take place in the United States, Europe,
eastern China, and parts of southern Africa and Australia (all of
which have mean increases larger than 2 °C) [14].
The increase of ambient temperature in certain places may
cause damages to the oil and gas pipelines feeding the power
plants as a result of permafrost melting and soil subsidence
which threatens structural integrity [15].
B. Decrease in availability of cooling water
The requirement of thermal power plants cooling is consid-
ered to be the biggest demand for fresh water related to human
activities, e.g., in the USA 41% of freshwater is used for cool-
ing power plants [16]. The demand of fresh water for thermal
power plants use goes to 66% in Southeastern U.S. The fresh-
water demand for thermal power plants use in Germany repre-
sents 60.9% of the total German water demand [17].
There are many serious concerns about the availability of
fresh water to meet the demand of power generation [18].
Droughts, reduced snowfall in mountain areas and changes in
precipitation patterns are factors that impact the availability of
fresh water.
Fig. 4. Total water use for conventional and renewable
electricity generators (gallons/kWh). [19]
It is anticipated that thermal power plants in USA will
experience a reduction of 4 to 16 percent of the production
capacity between 2031 and 2060 due to decrease in availability
of water for cooling because of climate change-induced
drought and heat.
Drought or precipitation decrease also impacts coal
extraction and transport since less water affects the mine air
conditioning and operations. Similarly, it reduces the
production of oil since it limits the availability of water
required for drilling and removing drilling mud [15].
Fig. 5. Observed drought trends in the United States, with
hatching indicating a significant trend. [20]
C. Sea-level rise
Rising sea level will cause damages to power plants situated at
coastal areas because mainly of potential floods and/or
erosion. It is expected that the global-mean sea level will rise
significantly within the current century.
Sea level risk in USA East Cost will have greater impact due
to that fact that the lad is relative flat [21]. Another more
exposed place is Bangladesh which is considered as one of the
most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change with
a projected a rise of 9 to 88 cm from 1990 to 2100 [22].
D. Increase in frequency of severe weather events
The climate change is deriving severe weather events that
heavily impacts facilities such as thermal power plants.
Increased frequency of hurricanes is an example of such risk.
Direct losses to energy sector due to hurricanes in the USA
were $15 billion [22].
Severe weather conditions such as floods and storms
threaten the production and transport of fuel to thermal power
plants. Storms and flood affect mines operation and opencast
excavation equipment required for coal production, and thus
reduces the supply. Also, floods can reduce coal quality due to
higher moisture content in opencast mining. Oil production
might be reduced as well in case storms affect coastal or
offshore oil platforms [15].
Fig. 6. Main climate change risks and related sensitivity to
thermal power plants [23]
V. ADAPTIVE PLANNING AND CAPACITY EVALUATION
The Adaptive Capacity is defined as “the ability of built,
natural and human systems associated with a given planning
area to accommodate changes in climate with minimum
disruption or minimum additional cost” [24].
The adaptive capacity of a concerned thermal power plant
is determined by the ability of this plant to accommodate
projected impacts of each of the risks arising from climate
change with minimum disruptions or costs. The adaptive
capacity is rated as low, medium and high based on how much
resilient the plant is with respect to the impacts of risk being
evaluated.
The effects of climate changes on the power plant should
be part of the plant design parameters so that it will be more
resilient to the changes within its economic lifetime.
Simulating the various possible scenarios of potential future
changes in climate is an important step to assess the design
requirements of new power plants. This involves modeling the
performance of the power plant and the hydrological,
hydrodynamic and temperature conditions.
An adaptive capacity analysis is carried whenever there is a
need to develop adaptation response plans for existing thermal
power plants threatened by climate changes or when a design
of new thermal power plants is to be developing with as more
resilient to climate changes.
The proper determination of design parameters and
performing accurate future climate simulation are prerequisites
for the analysis of adaptive capacity of thermal power plants
and for the associated planning activities. The effects of
climate changes on the power plant should be part of the plant
design parameters so that it will be more resilient to the
changes within its economic lifetime. Simulating the various
possible scenarios of potential future changes in climate is an
important step to assess the design requirements of new power
plants. This involves modeling the performance of the power
plant and the hydrological, hydrodynamic and temperature
conditions.
The outcomes of adaptive capacity evaluation and related
design and planning activities can be integrated into thermal
power plant project lifecycle at the start of design phase of new
projects, when replacing turbine or other major equipment and
at the end of the design economic life when refurbishment and
lifetime extension are being considered [23].
VI. RECOMMENDATION FOR MORE RESILIENT DESIGN
The development of a resilient design of thermal power
plant facilities against potential climate changes is one of the
main adaptation responses. For example, the performance of
gas turbine powered plants can be improved by providing
additional cooling to the intake air which will counter the effect
of high ambient temperature. Also, reducing the intake water
temperature and increasing the performance of the cooling
water system pumps and heat exchangers will greatly improve
performance of the system [23].
Based on the outcomes of studying the environment and
climate of the surrounding of the thermal power plant and the
result of the simulation of future weather scenarios, the
designer will be capable of determining the targeted
performance based on optimal capacity and efficiency for the
intended plant.
Moreover, the reliability and adaptation capability of fuel
supply systems is also important to improve the overall
adaptation capability of thermal power plants. Therefore,
designers must take into consideration in both cases of
upgrading and new projects the need of having robust and
structurally flexible pipeline designs to account for melting
permafrost. Also, the system should include reservoirs suitably
sized and equipped with dykes or berms to cater for risks of
climate changes [25].
Regarding water management, the options of enlarging
existing or building large reservoirs to reduce water shortages
should be considered. The design can include larger water
treatment systems and/or development of new water sources
whenever possible. Also, designing cooling systems to
economize the use of water and to minimize losses due to
evaporation will help.
The risks of flood and sea level increase can be mitigated to
a certain degree by controlling the possible floods through
implementing embankments, dams, dikes, reservoirs, polders,
ponds barriers, and higher channel capacity. Also
implementing breakwater walls will improve coastal defenses.
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