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Can a dysprosium shortage threaten green energy technologies?
... Neodymium is key to NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron) permanent magnets. It is well understood [10][11][12][13][14] that large-scale offshore wind power requires these magnets as components of direct-drive generators, because the traditional gearbox-driven technology commonly used in land-based and small offshore turbines suffers from low technical reliability 15 . On land, high maintenance rates and downtimes are tolerable to higher extents than offshore, where distances, accessibility and weather and sea conditions make frequent maintenance prohibitively expensive. ...
... Global neodymium production has been growing rapidly, from 12 Gg in 2005 20 to 20 Gg in 2010 23 , and is estimated to have exceeded 25 Gg in recent years while failing to fully satisfy current demands 36,37 . With concurrent growth in demands from electric vehicles 34,38,39 and wind power elsewhere [10][11][12]24 , the fledgling offshore wind power sector in the United States will face strong competition for neodymium. ...
... Dysprosium faces severe global supply constraints, yet reducing dysprosium content also reduces product efficiency 51 . If the demand for dysprosium is not reduced by technological advances, a significant supply-demand imbalance may occur in the near-term future 11,52 . These trade-offs highlight the need to analyse critical materials in scenarios and assessments, including governmental ones in the vein of the Wind Vision report, as well as in commercial development plans. ...
Wind power is often posed as a greenhouse gas emission mitigation option, yet from a global perspective, the constrained supplies of rare-earth metals required for large-scale offshore wind turbines seem increasingly likely to provide limits to offshore wind power and other rare-earth-metal applications in the coming years. A 2015 US Department of Energy study maps an ambitious roadmap for offshore wind power to be capable of meeting substantial US electric-generating capacity by 2050. Our study addresses the neodymium material requirements that would be needed. We find that regional differences in deployment schedules will result in complex patterns of new capacity additions occurring concomitantly with turbine retirements and replacement needs. These demands would total over 15.5 Gg (15.5 kt) of neodymium by 2050, of which 20% could potentially be avoided by circular usage from decommissioned turbines but only if recycling technologies are developed or, better still, magnets are designed for reuse. Because neodymium is deemed to be a ‘critical material’, these perspectives are vital information for the formation of policy related to wind-energy provisioning, to domestic production, and to the importation of the rare-earth elements that would be required.
... Furthermore, the growth in the supply of rare earth elements has stagnated in recent years with production peaking in 2006( DiFrancesco et al., 2017. All of this has been fundamentally caused by a lack of competition in the REE supply chain and has fuelled speculation about the future vulnerability of reliant industries ( Mancheri, 2012 ;Martin, 2010 ;Hatch, 2012 ;Alonso et al., 2012 ;Hoenderdaal et al., 2013 ;Massari and Ruberti, 2013 ;Rowlatt, 2014 ;Mancheri, 2015 ;Mancheri, 2016 ). ...
... An upper bound of REE demand and a lower bound of REE supply will thus be considered. A 2 °C scenario is thought to represent the upper bound for REE demand as i) prominent low carbon technologies utilise rare earth elements in significant quantities ( Hoenderdaal et al., 2013 ;Habib and Wenzel, 2014 ;Barteková, 2016 ) and ii) current climate effort s show that low carbon technologies are unlikely to be deployed in excess of 2 °C goals ( Rogelj et al., 2016 ). The demand forecasting of rare earth elements for low carbon applications is restricted to wind turbines and electric vehicles as these technologies represent the vast majority of rare earth element demand in this sector ( Hoenderdaal et al., 2013 ;Habib and Wenzel, 2014 ;Barteková, 2016 ;Moss et al., 2011 ;Hart, 2007 ;Jha, 2014 ;Zhou et al., 2019 ). ...
... A 2 °C scenario is thought to represent the upper bound for REE demand as i) prominent low carbon technologies utilise rare earth elements in significant quantities ( Hoenderdaal et al., 2013 ;Habib and Wenzel, 2014 ;Barteková, 2016 ) and ii) current climate effort s show that low carbon technologies are unlikely to be deployed in excess of 2 °C goals ( Rogelj et al., 2016 ). The demand forecasting of rare earth elements for low carbon applications is restricted to wind turbines and electric vehicles as these technologies represent the vast majority of rare earth element demand in this sector ( Hoenderdaal et al., 2013 ;Habib and Wenzel, 2014 ;Barteková, 2016 ;Moss et al., 2011 ;Hart, 2007 ;Jha, 2014 ;Zhou et al., 2019 ). The supply of rare earth elements is set to remain at 2017 values ( Gambogi, 2018 ), a feasible lower bound given the uncompetitive supply chain and the lack of growth over the past decade. ...
Decarbonation of the energy system is required at an unprecedented scale to prevent global temperatures rising more than 2°C. A suite of low carbon technologies will be required for this transition. Two of these technologies, wind turbines and electric vehicles, utilise rare earth elements that are sourced from a monopolised supply chain. This could pose a risk to attaining global climate targets. Using demand forecasting, this study shows that 2-degree targets are indeed vulnerable to the rare earth element supply chain. It was found that the consumption of rare earth elements in the electric vehicle industry is unsustainable under current market conditions, while wind turbines are relatively invulnerable to the supply risk of rare earth elements. The stark contrast in risk exposure of these technologies is clearly at odds with the economically optimal deployment projections given in the IEA 2DS scenario. Failure to incorporate these risks in future models will likely impair climate change mitigation efforts.
... A nickel-based superalloy coating will likely have low variability in material intensity, especially as previous attempts to lower rhenium content have not been successful in maintaining the heat resistant properties [14]. [2,32,[40][41][42][43][44]87]; (b) material intensity of three types of photovoltaic solar panels [7,22,[32][33][34]88,89]; (c) material intensity of the superalloy coating used on gas turbines blades [11,14,47]. ...
... The emissions savings units are used to capture the environmental benefits of these clean energy production technologies in an adaptation of the previous functional units. The results can be seen in Figure 8. [2,7,11,14,22,[32][33][34][40][41][42][43][44]47,82,[87][88][89]. ...
... Low emission mobility technologies with functional units of kg of material per kW of power capacity: (a) material intensity of PEM fuel cells in fuel cell electric vehicles[2,52,53]; (b) material intensity of the NdFeB permanent magnet motor in electric vehicles[2,22,40,41,43,45,58,67,95,96]. ...
Clean energy technologies have been developed to address the pressing global issue of climate change; however, the functionality of many of these technologies relies on materials that are considered critical. Critical materials are those that have potential vulnerability to supply disruption. In this paper, critical material intensity data from academic articles, government reports, and industry publications are aggregated and presented in a variety of functional units, which vary based on the application of each technology. The clean energy production technologies of gas turbines, direct drive wind turbines, and three types of solar photovoltaics (silicon, CdTe, and CIGS); the low emission mobility technologies of proton exchange membrane fuel cells, permanent-magnet-containing motors, and both nickel metal hydride and Li-ion batteries; and, the energy-efficient lighting devices (CFL, LFL, and LED bulbs) are analyzed. To further explore the role of critical materials in addressing climate change, emissions savings units are also provided to illustrate the potential for greenhouse gas emission reductions per mass of critical material in each of the clean energy production technologies. Results show the comparisons of material use in clean energy technologies under various performance, economic, and environmental based units.
... A nickel-based superalloy coating will likely have low variability in material intensity, especially as previous attempts to lower rhenium content have not been successful in maintaining the heat resistant properties [14]. [2,32,[40][41][42][43][44]87]; (b) material intensity of three types of photovoltaic solar panels [7,22,[32][33][34]88,89]; (c) material intensity of the superalloy coating used on gas turbines blades [11,14,47]. ...
... The emissions savings units are used to capture the environmental benefits of these clean energy production technologies in an adaptation of the previous functional units. The results can be seen in Figure 8. [2,7,11,14,22,[32][33][34][40][41][42][43][44]47,82,[87][88][89]. ...
... Low emission mobility technologies with functional units of kg of material per kW of power capacity: (a) material intensity of PEM fuel cells in fuel cell electric vehicles[2,52,53]; (b) material intensity of the NdFeB permanent magnet motor in electric vehicles[2,22,40,41,43,45,58,67,95,96]. ...
Clean energy technologies have been developed to address the pressing global issue of climate change; however, the functionality of many of these technologies relies on materials that are considered critical. Critical materials are those that have potential vulnerability to supply disruption. In this paper, critical material intensity data from academic articles, government reports, and industry publications are aggregated and presented in a variety of functional units, which vary based on the application of each technology. The clean energy production technologies of gas turbines, direct drive wind turbines, and three types of solar photovoltaics (silicon, CdTe, and CIGS); the low emission mobility technologies of proton exchange membrane fuel cells, permanent-magnet-containing motors, and both nickel metal hydride and Li-ion batteries; and, the energy-efficient lighting devices (CFL, LFL, and LED bulbs) are analyzed. To further explore the role of critical materials in addressing climate change, emissions savings units are also provided to illustrate the potential for greenhouse gas emission reductions per mass of critical material in each of the clean energy production technologies. Results show the comparisons of material use in clean energy technologies under various performance, economic, and environmental based units.
... For example, Habib and Wenzel [22] estimate that future demand for rare earth elements (REEs) Nd and Dy will primarily come from non-energy sectors and the manufacturing of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This estimate agrees with results presented by Hoenderdaal et al. [23], who analyse the demand for Dy and conclude that the wind turbine sector would represent a significant share of total demand only in very ambitious energy scenarios. On the other hand, Ziemann et al. [24] show that future demand for Li from non-energy sectors seems to play only a minor role, driven primarily by the manufacturing of batteries for mobility. ...
... Upper bound values correspond to our results for the less ambitious scenarios and are mainly driven by the deployment of BEVs. Hoenderdaal et al. [23] use scenarios which combine low and high expansion scenarios for wind turbines with low and high assumptions on the market penetration of direct-drive wind turbines. The growth rates of nonenergy sectors are assumed to be sector-specific. ...
... As in Ref. [22], the material demand is mainly driven by BEVs. Although the results in Hoenderdaal et al. [23] are in the range of material demand in the our study, they assume a lower degree of ambition of the analysed scenarios (i.e. lower installed capacities of wind power, less electric vehicles) which is compensated by a higher specific material content of the energy technologies. ...
We assess the requirements for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt in power generation, storage and transport technologies until 2050 under six global energy scenarios. We consider plausible developments in the subtechnology markets for lithium-ion batteries, wind power, and electric motors for road transport. Moreover, we include the uncertainties regarding the specific material content of these subtechnologies and the reserve and resource estimates. Furthermore, we consider the development of the material demand in non-energy sectors. The results show that the material requirements increase with the degree of ambition of the scenarios. The maximum annual primary material demand of the scenarios exceeds current extraction volumes by a factor of 3 to 9 (Nd), 7 to 35 (Dy), 12 to 143 (Li), and 2 to 22 (Co). The ratios of cumulative primary material demand to average reserve estimates range from 0.1 to 0.3 (Nd), 0.3 to 1.1 (Dy), 0.7 to 6.5 (Li), and 0.8 to 5.5 (Co). Average resource estimates of Li and Co are exceeded by up to a factor of 2.1 and 1.7, respectively. We recommend that future scenario studies on the energy system transformation consider the influence of possible material bottlenecks on technology prices and substitution technology options.
... kt of dysprosium (Dy) within the magnets of PMG drives ( Fig. 4 ). Regarding the veracity of Nd figures, the Nd per MW intensity multipliers for each WTG were derived from extensive stakeholder discussion and analysis of literature exploring NdFeB content of different generators (e.g., Griffiths and Easton, 2011 ;USDoE, 2011 ;Wilburn, 2011 ;Constantinides, 2012 ;Hoenderdaal et al., 2013 ;Speirs et al., 2013 ;AMEC, 2014 ;Lacal-Arántegui, 2015 ;Imholte et al., 2018 ). The Nd multipliers employed in this article reflect those derived from and verified by industry operators and notably incorporate one of the lowest of stated average Nd NdFeB contents, i.e. 27% ( Griffiths and Easton, 2011 ) (see Fishman and Graedel, 2019 , for reference to Nd NdFeB intensity ranges used within articles). ...
... kg of Nd could potentially be required for each additional MW of generator capacity. Notably, however, to highlight issues with assessing future resource management needs, overall Nd per MW employed within larger later generation turbines was expected by PMG manufacturers to decrease ( Griffiths and Elston, 2011 ); whilst use of Dy, deemed critical to the performance of PMGs at high temperatures in WTGs and EV batteries (i.e., Hoenderdaal et al., 2013 ), is expected to fall due to a chronic shortage and consequent design changes to NdFeB magnets. This, arguably, gives some hope that demand for some problematic or rare materials will not increase in a linear manner to turbine capacity increases, hence in part the use of conservative generator specific Nd figures in this article compared to some published studies. ...
Development and deployment of low carbon infrastructure (LCI) is essential in a period of accelerated climate change. The deployment of LCI is, however, not taking place with any obvious long term or joined up thinking in respect of life-cycle material extraction, usage and recovery across technologies or otherwise. This proposition is demonstrated through empirical quantification of selected infrastructure and a review of decommissioning plans, as exemplified by offshore wind in the United Kingdom. There is wide acknowledgment that offshore wind and other LCI are dependent on the production and use of many composite and critical materials that can and regularly do inflict high impacts on the environment and society during extraction and manufacturing. To optimise resource use from a whole system perspective, it is thus essential that the components of LCI and the materials they share and are comprised of, are designed with a circular economy in mind. As such, LCI must be designed for durability, reuse and remanufacturing, rather than committing them to sub-optimal waste management and energy recovery pathways. Beyond a promise to remove installed components, end-of-life decommissioning plans do not however provide any insight into a given operators’ awareness of the nuances of their proposed material management methods or indeed current or future management capacities. Decommissioning plans for offshore wind are at best formulaic and at worst perfunctory and provide no value to the growing movement toward a circular economy. At this time, millions of tonnes of composites, precious and rare earth materials are being extracted, processed and deployed in infrastructure with nothing in place that suggests that these materials can be sustainably recovered, managed and returned to productive use at the potential scales required to meet accelerating LCI deployment. Academic and industry literature, or lack thereof, suggest that this statement is largely reflected throughout LCI deployment and not just within the deployment of offshore wind in the UK.
... Rare earth elements (REEs) a chemically uniform group of metals, which includes the 15 lanthanide elements, as well as scandium (Sc) and yttrium (Y), are indispensable for emerging technologies (e.g., cell phones, hybrid vehicles, and wind turbines) (Mayfield and Fairbrother, 2015) and heavy REEs (gadolinium-lutetium) especially are more valuable than light REEs (lanthanum -europium) due to their more limited known exploitable deposits (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). Among heavy REEs, Dy was identified by the United States Department of Energy as one of the critical REEs for the development of future clean energy technologies (United States Department of Energy, 2011), since nearly 95% of the total Dy demand accounts for use in magnets for wind turbine generators and electric vehicle motors (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). ...
... Rare earth elements (REEs) a chemically uniform group of metals, which includes the 15 lanthanide elements, as well as scandium (Sc) and yttrium (Y), are indispensable for emerging technologies (e.g., cell phones, hybrid vehicles, and wind turbines) (Mayfield and Fairbrother, 2015) and heavy REEs (gadolinium-lutetium) especially are more valuable than light REEs (lanthanum -europium) due to their more limited known exploitable deposits (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). Among heavy REEs, Dy was identified by the United States Department of Energy as one of the critical REEs for the development of future clean energy technologies (United States Department of Energy, 2011), since nearly 95% of the total Dy demand accounts for use in magnets for wind turbine generators and electric vehicle motors (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). Its world production is around 2000 tons per year (Emsley, 2011) and it is expected that from 2010 to 2035 the demand of this element will rise by 2600% (Alonso et al., 2012). ...
Rare earth elements (REEs) have been recently identified as emergent contaminants because of their numerous
and increasing applications in technology. The impact of REEs on downstream ecosystems, notably aquatic organisms,
is of particular concern, but has to date been largely overlooked. The purpose of this study was thus to
evaluate the toxicity of lanthanide metals, lutetium (Lu) and dysprosium (Dy) in rainbow trout after 96 h of
exposure. The lethal concentration (LC50) was determined and the expression of 14 genes involved in different
pathways such as oxidative stress, xenobiotic detoxification, mitochondrial respiration, DNA repair, protein
folding and turnover, inflammation, calcium binding and ammonia metabolism were quantified in surviving fish.
In parallel, lipid peroxidation (LPO), DNA damage (DSB), metallothionein level (MT) and cyclooxygenase activity
(COX) were examined. The acute 96 h-LC50 data revealed that Lu was more toxic than Dy (1.9 and 11.0
mg/L, respectively) and was able to affect all investigated pathways by changing the expression of the studied
genes, to the exception of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and glutathione-S-transferase (GST). It
also induced a decrease in DNA repair at concentrations 29 times below the LC50. This suggests that Lu could
trigger a general stress to disrupt the cell homeostasis leading to genotoxicity without promoting oxidative stress.
However, Dy induced modulation in the expression of genes involved in the protection against oxidative stress,
detoxification, mitochondrial respiration, immunomodulation, protein turnover and an increase in the DNA
strand breaks at concentrations 170 times lower than LC50. Changes in mRNA level transcripts could represent an
early signal to prevent against toxicity of Dy, which exhibited inflammatory and genotoxic effects. This study
thus provides useful knowledge enhancing our understanding of survival strategies developed by rainbow trout
to cope with the presence of lanthanides in the environment.
... Rare earth elements (REEs) a chemically uniform group of metals, which includes the 15 lanthanide elements, as well as scandium (Sc) and yttrium (Y), are indispensable for emerging technologies (e.g., cell phones, hybrid vehicles, and wind turbines) (Mayfield and Fairbrother, 2015) and heavy REEs (gadolinium-lutetium) especially are more valuable than light REEs (lanthanum -europium) due to their more limited known exploitable deposits (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). Among heavy REEs, Dy was identified by the United States Department of Energy as one of the critical REEs for the development of future clean energy technologies (United States Department of Energy, 2011), since nearly 95% of the total Dy demand accounts for use in magnets for wind turbine generators and electric vehicle motors (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). ...
... Rare earth elements (REEs) a chemically uniform group of metals, which includes the 15 lanthanide elements, as well as scandium (Sc) and yttrium (Y), are indispensable for emerging technologies (e.g., cell phones, hybrid vehicles, and wind turbines) (Mayfield and Fairbrother, 2015) and heavy REEs (gadolinium-lutetium) especially are more valuable than light REEs (lanthanum -europium) due to their more limited known exploitable deposits (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). Among heavy REEs, Dy was identified by the United States Department of Energy as one of the critical REEs for the development of future clean energy technologies (United States Department of Energy, 2011), since nearly 95% of the total Dy demand accounts for use in magnets for wind turbine generators and electric vehicle motors (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). Its world production is around 2000 tons per year (Emsley, 2011) and it is expected that from 2010 to 2035 the demand of this element will rise by 2600% (Alonso et al., 2012). ...
Rare earth elements (REEs) have been recently identified as emergent contaminants because of their numerous and increasing applications in technology. The impact of REEs on downstream ecosystems, notably aquatic organisms , is of particular concern, but has to date been largely overlooked. The purpose of this study was thus to evaluate the toxicity of lanthanide metals, lutetium (Lu) and dysprosium (Dy) in rainbow trout after 96 h of exposure. The lethal concentration (LC50) was determined and the expression of 14 genes involved in different pathways such as oxidative stress, xenobiotic detoxification, mitochondrial respiration, DNA repair, protein folding and turnover, inflammation, calcium binding and ammonia metabolism were quantified in surviving fish. In parallel, lipid peroxidation (LPO), DNA damage (DSB), metallothionein level (MT) and cyclooxygenase activity (COX) were examined. The acute 96 h-LC 50 data revealed that Lu was more toxic than Dy (1.9 and 11.0 mg/L, respectively) and was able to affect all investigated pathways by changing the expression of the studied genes, to the exception of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and glutathione-S-transferase (GST). It also induced a decrease in DNA repair at concentrations 29 times below the LC 50. This suggests that Lu could trigger a general stress to disrupt the cell homeostasis leading to genotoxicity without promoting oxidative stress. However, Dy induced modulation in the expression of genes involved in the protection against oxidative stress, detoxification, mitochondrial respiration, immunomodulation, protein turnover and an increase in the DNA strand breaks at concentrations 170 times lower than LC 50. Changes in mRNA level transcripts could represent an early signal to prevent against toxicity of Dy, which exhibited inflammatory and genotoxic effects. This study thus provides useful knowledge enhancing our understanding of survival strategies developed by rainbow trout to cope with the presence of lanthanides in the environment.
... Thereafter, the rare earth element (REE) crisis that occurred in 2010 stimulated studies regarding REE estimations for the wind power sector. To be specific, REE demands associated with wind power development have been estimated for Europe (Kim et al., 2015;Ciacci et al., 2019), Denmark , America (Imholte et al., 2018;Fishman and Graedel, 2019), China (Wang et al., 2019;Elshkaki and Shen, 2019), and the world (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013;Elshkaki and Graedel, 2014;Habib and Wenzel, 2014). Most of these studies have predicted a significant demand for rare earth elements over the next 2-3 decades and called for more stringent supply management. ...
... The rare earth elements (REEs) are increasingly valuable because of their growing use in renewable energy and high technology applications [1], such as fuel cells, magnets, superconductors, cell phones, turbines and thermoelectric materials. The limited known exploitable deposits of REEs in the world, however, creates challenges in the supply of primary REEs [2]. Dy is a critical metal for the production of permanent magnets, lamp phosphors, rechargeable NiMH batteries, catalysts and for other applications [3][4][5]. ...
This paper reports on the experimental investigation of the phase relations in the CaO-SiO2-Dy2O3 system. CaO-SiO2-Dy2O3 slags were equilibrated at 1773 and 1873 K for 86400 s in Ar and then quenched in water to determine the phase relations of the system. The composition of the equilibrated phases was measured by EPMA-WDS and XRD. The presence of ternary compounds and the solid solution and liquid regions were determined to construct the isothermal sections at 1773 and 1873 K of the ternary phase diagram. The data from this work will support further investigations on the feasibility to recover REEs through pyrometallurgical processing.
... Therefore, the processing and recycling of this type of waste, which contains REEs (especially Dy), are significant. Hoenderdaal et al. (2013) reported that electric vehicles had accounted for about 23% of the worldwide demand for Dy. The main REEs application in electric vehicles is batteries. ...
This thesis investigated the recovery of critical metals from waste streams, by means of (bio)hydrometallurgical leaching and bio-precipitation. The literature reviews covered urban solid wastes and coal ashes containing rare earth elements (REEs). The numerical investigations focused on three critical metals: Arsenic (As) contained in metal-contaminated natural waters, and Europium (Eu) and Ytterbium (Yb) contained in silicate rocks that often are accumulated as lowvalue mine tailings. This thesis utilized geochemical modeling, using The Geochemist’s Workbench software, to develop and test reactive models. The first model simulates the timedependent bio-precipitation of arsenic from a natural water with the aid of bacterium Bacillus arsenicoselenatis. The second model simulates the equilibration of four silicate minerals (chrysotile, forsterite, montmorillonite and phlogopite) containing oxides of Eu and Yb with an aqueous solution of dilute salts exposed to air, followed by the addition of inorganic (H2SO4 and HCl) and organic (Lactic) acids to this system.
... Simon et al. [9] and Gaines et al. [10] forecast material demand for batteries to 2030 and 2050 respectively, though did not consider motor requirements. Other studies have investigated the use of rare earth materials in electric vehicles, including hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), though have neglected the demand of all other materials [11,12]. Further, these studies are based on inconsistent growth forecasts which do not align with current government ambitions and rely on assumptions as to which non-commercial technologies will gain significant market share over the forecasting period. ...
Electric vehicles are poised to play a large role in the decarbonisation of the transportation sector. World governments have pledged to bring 13 million plug-in electric vehicles on the road by 2020 and 100 million by 2030. The rapid expansion required to meet these targets, from a global stock of 5 million electric vehicles in 2018, has the potential to be constrained by material supply chains. This study has identified 7 key elements which are significant supply risks to the electric vehicle industry: battery grade natural graphite, lithium and cobalt for electric vehicle batteries, and the rare earth elements dysprosium, terbium, praseodymium and neodymium for electric vehicle motors. None of these elements are able to be substituted without (i) increasing the supply risk of the other constrained elements, or (ii) altering industry wide manufacturing processes. The inability to fully mitigate material supply risks at the required market expansion rates is a key issue for minimising carbon emissions from the transportation sector.
... After applying the tests in Table 2 above, we find that the fixed-effect model should be used. Since data present characteristics of contemporaneous correlation, autocorrelation of residuals, and heteroscedasticity, this study chooses fixed effect regression models with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors [68]. In the derivation of Driscoll and Kraay standard errors, the disturbance is allowed to be autocorrelated, heteroskedastic, and cross-sectionally dependent, so the estimation is well calibrated when spatial dependence exists [69]. ...
This study aims to find the relationship between energy resource dependence and economic growth in consideration of interprovincial heterogeneity. This paper first uses panel data from 14 provinces with rich energy resources in China between 2001 and 2016 as a whole to test the energy resource curse hypothesis. It finds that there is no obvious resource curse from a general perspective. It further makes time prediction and transmission channel analysis based on regressions of each province and classifies them into four groups according to the different degrees of the resource curse. It shows the different roles of resource dependencies in different groups. Twelve provinces are subject to different degrees of the resource curse, among which, six provinces would eventually experience negative economic growth if they increase the degree of resource dependence. Next, this study discusses the mechanism of one particular group, “invisible energy resource curse”, which is when energy resources directly promote but indirectly hinder economic growth. Finally, based on the results, the present study offers policy suggestions according to provinces’ heterogeneous curse levels.
... g/unit 100 (Ballinger et al., 2019;Chu, 2011;Yano, Muroi, & Sakai, 2015) Wind turbines 124.000-210.000 kg/MW 20 (Chu, 2011;Hoenderdaal et al., 2013;Nassar, Wilburn, & Goonan, 2016) Mobile phones 0.050-0.200 g/unit 100 (Ciacci et al., 2019;Crock, 2016; Laptops/tablets 0.600-2.100 ...
Neodymium is one of the most important enabling materials for next‐generation clean technologies, especially electric vehicles and wind turbines. As the world's largest producer of rare earth minerals, China dominates the global neodymium supply and a considerable amount of primary neodymium resources are from illegal mining. Many studies have been conducted on the material flow of neodymium in different regions, but few studies focus on China. In this study, a static material flow analysis of neodymium is conducted to quantitatively analyze the industrial chain structure of neodymium in China and to calculate the neodymium output from illegal mining. The results quantitatively depict the neodymium material flow of each stage of China's neodymium industrial chain in 2016, which indicates that 12.3–17.0 kt of primary neodymium resources were from illegal mining. On the basis of the results, reasonable conclusions can be drawn that the recycling of neodymium from end‐of‐life products provides an important opportunity to both reduce illegal rare earth mining and cope with increasing neodymium demand.
... With China having a near monopoly and control over 90% of the market share, limited availability of REEs can be potentially challenging, expensive and even a political issue (Hoenderdaal et al. 2013). For example, Republic of Korea is a leading exporter of medical, industrial, heavy/light vehicles and electronic goods (Samsung, LG, Hyundai, Kia etc.) worth several billion dollars but has to import all its Nd requirements as it has no natural resources (Swain et al. 2015). ...
The global electronics industry is growing rapidly due to an increased consumption of electronic devices and expected to exceed 1.8 trillion USD by 2024. This has caused a high demand for specific materials, primary mining, and the generation of large volumes of electronic waste (e-waste). Discarded electronic devices are however a potential secondary resource of precious and other metals and rare earth elements, whose recovery from e-waste could be invaluable for countries with little or limited natural resources. A reliable and unhindered supply of several critical raw materials is a growing concern across the globe. We report high temperature (800-1250C; 15 min.) pyrolysis investigations on a variety of waste printed circuit boards (PCBs) in in a resistance furnace. Pyrolysis residues were separated into copper/lead/tin rich metallic fractions (MFs) and slag/carbon rich non-metallic fractions (NMFs). The concentrations of precious metals (PMs: Au, Ag, Pt, Pd) and rare earths (REEs: Nd, La, Gd, Ce, Pr, Sm Dy and Y) were determined in these fractions using inductively coupled plasma (ICP) analysis. Most PMs showed a clear tendency to concentrate in the MFs indicating a high affinity with major metals Cu, Pb and Sn; a much smaller proportion of PMs was detected in the NMFs. Waste PCBs from different sources were also found to be a valuable resource of REEs. REEs recovered included Pr, Nd, La, Ce, Y and Dy among others; Nd, Dy and Y among these are on the most critical material resource list. Most REEs were found concentrated in the NMFs with negligible levels detected in MFs. Simultaneous recovery of PMs and REEs, their respective concentrations in different pyrolysis fractions, low operating temperatures, short processing times and minimal pre-processing of PCBs are expected to lead to economic and environmentally sustainable recovery of several critical materials from electronic waste.
... Some of the studies have particularly focused on specific metals, for example, Habib &Wenzel (2014) explored future demand and supply scenarios of rare earth elements (REEs) based permanent magnets, i.e., neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets found in a number of modern and clean energy technologies such as direct-drive wind turbines and EVs. Hoenderdaal et al. (2013) focused on the impacts of potential dysprosium supply constraints on green energy technologies. A few studies have focused on single technology rather than considering a set of clean energy technologies, such as have studied critical metals for a wider deployment of wind turbines in future. ...
Electrification of future transport sector is important to reduce direct greenhouse gas emissions and the burden on fossil fuels. The modern clean energy technologies, such as electric vehicles (EVs), contain a number of hi-tech electronics and other components that depend on a wide range of metals for their functioning. A transition to large-scale deployment of such technologies might be constrained by the limited availability of these metals in future. This study is aimed at resource criticality assessment for passenger EVs, where three main scenarios are modelled considering future demand of EVs in five geographic regions by 2050. The focus metals are aluminium (Al), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), lithium (Li), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), and the two rare earth elements (REEs): neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy). The scenario results show an increase in total number of EVs from 1.13 billion in 2011 to 2.6 billion in the baseline scenario, 2.55 billion in the moderate scenario, and 2.25 billion in the stringent scenario by 2050. The geological reserves of cobalt, lithium and nickel seem to face higher pressure resulting from increasing demand of these metals by EVs’ batteries. Whereas, the geopolitical supply risk factor becomes important in case of REEs due to existing market concentration. Recycling and technology substitution at various levels seem to reduce the vulnerability of EVs to increasing geological and geopolitical supply risk of metals.
... For example, the use of large volume of organic solvents for the recovery of these elements has an adverse environmental impact. This is because organic solvents are toxic, corrosive, inherently Table 1 The production, resources and reserve status of some prospective elements in Australia and their application for different purposes (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013;Skirrow et al., 2013;USGS, 2016 volatile and flammable (Nishihama et al., 2003). Their volatility and solubility contributes to air, land and water pollution. ...
Strategically important elements are those that are vital to advanced manufacturing, low carbon technologies and other growing industries. Ongoing depletion and supply risks to these elements are a critical concern, and thus, recovery of these elements from low-grade ores and brines has generated significant interest worldwide. Among the strategically important elements, this paper focuses on rare earth elements (REEs), the platinum-group metals and lithium due to their wide application in the advanced industrial economics. We critically review the current methods such as precipitation, ion exchange and solvent extraction for extracting these elements from low-grade ores and brines and provide insight into the technical challenges to the practical realisation of metal extraction from these low-grade sources. The challenges include the low concentration of the target elements in brines and inadequate selectivity of the existing methods. This review also critically analyzes the potential applicability of an integrated clean water production and metal extraction process based on conventional pressure-driven membrane and emerging membrane technologies (e.g., membrane distillation). Such a process can first enrich the strategically important elements in solution for their subsequent recovery along with clean water production.
... In the following, we summarize the existing knowledge on these parameters, and derive assumptions and sub-scenarios for them. (Glöser-Chahoud, 2017;Hoenderdaal, Tercero Espinoza, Marscheider-Weidemann, & Graus, 2013). Furthermore, Nd can be replaced by Pr up to a ratio of 3:1 without negative impacts on performance (Buchert, Manhart, Bleher, & Pingel, 2012). ...
The environmental impacts of rare earth mining have recently caused public concern, because demand for the rare earth elements neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (pr), dysprosium (Dy), and terbium (Tb) is expected to increase strongly as a result of their use in magnets for electric cars and other emerging applications. Therefore, we analyzed the future environmental impacts of producing these rare earth metals per kilogram and for global production in the year 2035 to obtain insights into their relevance and draw conclusions about suitable mitigation measures. We introduced a new stepwise approach that combines future scenarios of metal demand, policy measures, mining sites, and environmental conditions with life cycle assessment data sets.
The environmental impacts of 1kg of Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb will probably decrease by 2035. In contrast, the environmental impacts of the global production of these metals for magnet applications might increase or decrease depending on the development of demand and the environmental conditions of mining and production. Regarding mitigation measures, the attempts included in the Chinese consolidation strategy (improvement of the environmental conditions of mining, prevention of illegal mining) are the most promising to reduce impacts in the categories human toxicity, freshwater ecotoxicity and, in the case of Nd/Pr, also in eutrophication and acidification. For the remaining categories, reducing the increase in demand (e.g., by improving material efficiency) is the most promising measure. Enhancing the environmental performance of foreground processes has larger potential benefits than improving background processes for most impact categories, including human toxicity as the most relevant impact category following normalization. This article met the requirements for a gold‐gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.
... This demand may accelerate as the relevance of RE was once more acknowledged by resolutions reached at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015, which will consequently lead to a necessary shift from CO 2 emitting technologies to carbonneutral alternatives. Most technologies needed for this transformation rely on RE (Alonso et al., 2012;de Koning et al., 2018;Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). Their increasing relevance, however, also highlights existing supply risks, as their production is concentrated in few countries (Mancheri et al., 2019;Nassar et al., 2015). ...
Rare Earth Elements (REE) are crucial for future technologies. However, their production is concentrated in China and this country's dominant market position leads to recurring supply risks. Japan was affected by supply disruptions a decade ago. Since then, Japan has been actively trying to secure its supply through rare earth (RE) mine projects outside of China in order to reduce its dependence on China. Based on an analysis of market developments and the activities of Japan in recent years, lessons learned are applied to the US, which is currently facing similar uncertainties. Conclusions lead us to question whether supporting new RE mine projects is the best strategy for the US to mitigate potential supply disruptions.
... The recoverable/demand ratios of Dy are not as high as those of Nd because the NdFeB magnets used in HDDs and MRIs have significantly less Dy composition. Considering that research is underway to substitute/reduce the Dy content in NdFeB magnets due to its high cost [36] we found that the demand for Dy would drop from 337 tons to 231 tons in 2034, assuming a Dy content of 3.4% [20], [37] in future EV PM motors. ...
Rare earth elements (REEs) such as Neodymium (Nd) and Dysprosium (Dy) are used in Rare Earth Permanent Magnets (REPMs). Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets offer the strongest magnetic field per volume among all the magnets available in the market, which enables lightweight and compact product designs. NdFeB magnets have thus become indispensable in emerging clean technologies such as wind turbines and electric vehicles (EVs). Global demand for these renewables is increasing due to environmental considerations, energy security, and consumer demand. However, China’s dominance in REE production and processing technology has led to concerns pertaining to supply chain risks. This is especially the case for the automotive industry that is experiencing a major shift from traditional internal combustion engines to EVs that employ these REPMs. The number of EVs on U.S. roads is projected to reach more than 18 million in 2030 up from 1.4 million in 2019. In order to mitigate supply chain brittleness, and thereby potentially reduce price volatility, secondary REE supply sources from end-of-life (EoL) products may be a viable option. This study quantifies the recycling potential of Nd and Dy from EoL EVs, HDDs and MRIs in the U.S. Factors used in the analysis were number of units manufactured each year, NdFeB magnet mass in each unit and REE composition of magnets employed. Using EV production forecasts, we estimate how much of the future Nd and Dy demands can be met by secondary supply from EoL products.
... The studies analysed in [6] deal most frequently with the rare earths dysprosium and neodymium required for permanent magnets in wind mills and electric motors (see [4,[21][22][23] on global and [24, 25] on national levels). Lithium and, to a lesser extent, cobalt are also among the elements most commonly analysed [6]. ...
Potentially scarce materials play an important role in many current and emerging technologies needed to support a sustainable energy and mobility system. This paper examines the global demand for 25 potentially scarce materials needed in key energy and transport technologies. The starting point is a global energy system scenario that is compatible with the 1.5°C target. To determine the material requirements, an extensive database was built up on the current and expected future specific demand of these materials in the key technologies studied. A second database describes the potential development of sub-technology market shares (e.g. different battery types) within a technology class (e.g. photovoltaics). A material flow analysis model was used to determine the annual and cumulative material requirements as well as the recycling potential. The results show that current production of all materials will have to be increased, in some cases significantly, in a short period of time to meet the anticipated demand for the energy and transportation system. In addition, the cumulative demand for some materials significantly exceeds current reserves and even resources. In particular, lithium, cobalt, and nickel for batteries, dysprosium and neodymium for permanent magnets (e.g. wind turbines and electric motors), and iridium as well as platinum in fuel cells and electrolyzers are affected. The construction of battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles thus represents a major driver of the growing material demand. Depending on the material, the expected shortages can be reduced or delayed by technology substitution, ambitious material recycling, an extension of technology lifetime, increased material efficiency, and a smaller future vehicle stock, but not entirely avoided. Hence, it can be expected that material bottlenecks will result in increases in material prices, at least in the short to medium term. What impact this will have on the transformation process itself still needs to be investigated in more detail.
... In order to mitigate this effect, the share of energy produced through renewable sources should be heightened substantially, as well as the efficiency achieved in energy production (Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, 2007. The transition towards a more sustainable and renewable transformation of the energy systems is closely related to technologies such as the ones associated with electric cars and wind turbines; sectors which have in common essential requirements of rare earth metals such as dysprosium and neodymium (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). ...
Background: Nowadays, the industry trends are reflecting an increase in the consumption of products containing rare earth elements (REEs), which leads to the generation of several REE-containing residues such as spent permanent magnets (SPM), permanent magnet swarf (PMS), and nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries.
Methods: Due to the risk of supply and to decrease the dependency of Europe in obtaining REEs, an innovative process for obtaining REEs in the form of rare earth oxalates (REOx) that can be easily transformed to an xide mixture by calcination is proposed. The proposed method includes leaching of REEs from SPM, PMS, and NiMH batteries using different solvents such as ionic liquids and/or mineral acids; precipitation of REE in the form of REOx and purification of the final products by an ionic liquid extraction (ILE) process for removing the impurities using Cyphos 101 as ionic liquid. Intensive research, based on laboratory tests, is described for each of the parts of the process with the aim of providing optimized results.
Results: In this study, >99% recovery of the REE initially present in the leachates after the leaching phase is achieved, with a purity of the REOxafter the precipitation and purification steps higher than 95%.
Conclusion: A novel and innovative process for the extraction of REEs from secondary sources has been investigated in this paper, demonstrating strong potential for its implementation. The REEEs recovery rate and the purity obtained together with the low environmental impact of this process compared to conventional ones can contribute to a greener future where the usage of REEs will presumably be even more relevant.
... The other 77% had electromagnetic generators utilizing steel and copper for their functionality, neither of which is considered critical materials [27]. The critical materials identified in the literature as potentially being present in these direct drive turbines are neodymium, dysprosium, nickel, molybdenum, praseodymium, and terbium [15,[28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. The molybdenum and nickel are found in the steel alloys of the turbines and are therefore not included in the permanent magnet generator (PMG) case study [29]. ...
Clean energy technologies are widely recognized as a part of the solution for a sustainable future. Unfortunately, these technologies often rely on materials that are considered critical because of their importance to the technology and their potential for supply disruptions, which often lead to drastic and unexpected price spikes. With many clean energy technologies still struggling to compete economically with incumbent technologies, it is uncertain if such material price changes could have a significant economic impact on overall clean energy technology costs. In this paper, we first estimate material intensity of critical materials for three case study clean energy technologies: proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in direct drive wind turbines, and Li-ion batteries in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Using these data, as well as material price information, we analyze technology-level costs under potential material price spike scenarios. By benchmarking against target costs at which each technology is expected to become economically competitive relative to incumbent energy systems, we evaluate the impact of price spikes on marketplace competitiveness. For the three case studies, technological costs could increase by between 13 and 41% if recent historical price events were to recur at current material intensities. By analyzing the economic impact of material price changes on technology-level costs, we demonstrate the need for stakeholders to push for various supply risk reduction measures, which are also summarized in this paper.
... In the case of electricity generation technologies, E p t , was obtained from scenarios in the literature (IEA, 2017). Meanwhile, E p t , at the time of using the vehicle was calculated using following assumptions from (Ashby, 2013;Moss et al., 2011Moss et al., , 2013a) Wind (onshore and offshore) (Ashby, 2013;Bödeker et al., 2010;Falconer, 2009;Fizaine and Court, 2015;García-Olivares et al., 2012;Guezuraga et al., 2012;Wenzel, 2016, 2014;Hoenderdaal et al., 2013;Kleijn and Van Der Voet, 2010;Lacal-Arantegui, 2015;Martínez et al., 2009;Mclellan et al., 2016;Moss et al., 2013b;Roelich et al., 2014;Teske et al., 2016;U.S. Department of Energy, 2011;VESTAS, 2006;Wilburn, 2011;World Bank Group, 2017;Zimmermann, 2013) Solar (c-Si, CIGS, CdTe) (Andersson and Jacobsson, 2000;Ashby, 2013;Berry, 2012;Bleiwas, 2010;Bödeker et al., 2010;Elshkaki and Graedel, 2013;Fizaine and Court, 2015;Fthenakis, 2012;Kavlak et al., 2015;Mclellan et al., 2016;Moss et al., 2013a;Stamp et al., 2014;Teske et al., 2016; The (Halada, 2007;Halada et al., 2001). ...
Global energy transitions could fundamentally change flows of both minerals and energy resources over time. It is, therefore, increasingly important to holistically and dynamically capture the impacts of large-scale energy transitions on resource flows including hidden flows such as mine waste, as well as direct flows. Here we demonstrate a systematic model that can quantify resource flows of both minerals and energy resources under the energy transition by using stock-flow dynamics and the concept of Total Material Requirement (TMR). The proposed model was applied to the International Energy Agency’s scenarios up to 2050, targeting 15 electricity generation and 5 transport technologies. Results indicate that the global energy transition could increase TMR flows associated with mineral production by around 200–900% in the electricity sector and 350–700% in the transport sector respectively from 2015 to 2050, depending on the scenarios. Such a drastic increase in TMR flows is largely associated with an increased demand for copper, silver, nickel, lithium and cobalt, as well as steel. Our results highlight that the decarbonization of the electricity sector can reduce energy resource flows and support the hypothesis that the expansion of low-carbon technologies could reduce total resource flows expressed as TMR. In the transport sector, on the other hand, the dissemination of Electric Vehicles could cause a sharp increase in TMR flows associated with mineral production, which could offset a decrease in energy resource flows. Findings in this study emphasize that a sustainable transition would be unachievable without designing resource cycles with a nexus approach.
... ； 划分改革开放以来中国稀缺矿 并指出新形势下的战略选择 [8] ； 剖析 1990-2013 年 的优势矿产管理政策演进过程， 评述政策的积极效 果及负面影响， 最后提出政策新思路 [9] 等。第二类 研究运用数量模型检验了稀土政策对中国稀土产 业及全球稀土市场的影响。中国学者认为稀土政 策总体上取得了积极成果 [10] ， 其中出口数量管理有 效削减了初级产品的出口数量 [11] ， 提升了稀土出口 的市场势力 [12,13] 。国外研究则关心中国稀土政策变 动对全球稀土市场及下游产业的影响， 重点包括中 国出口数量管理政策对清洁能源技术的影响 [14] 、 环 境规制对全球稀土供需的影响 [15][16][17] 、 稀土储存与环 境税收等对全球稀土产业链弹性的影响 [18] 等。第三 类研究重点关注中国稀土出口数量管理的动机。 有研究认为中国稀土出口措施造成了 "不公平竞争 优势" [19] ， 具有资源民族主义的特征 [20] [43] 增 长 到 5.33 万 t [44] ， 国 内 消 费 量 由 8286 t [46] ...
... But, these procedures are strictly limited to the separation of specific elements, especially Al and Ti, which are easier to extract, but hold petite commercial value. Various valuable elements, especially radioactive elements (e.g., U and Th) and REEs (e.g., Sc, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Pm, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, and Y), remain unrecovered (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). The concentration of REEs in various demographical locations is compared and clearly emphasized in Table 22. ...
... Currently, there are 130 million tons of rare earths proven reserves worldwide (Fernandez, 2017), nearly half of these reserves are located in China (42.31%), with Brazil accounting for 16.92% and Australia accounting for 2.46% (Wübbeke, 2013). Due to the situation of geographical distribution, China dominates the production of rare earths, accounting for more than 95% of the worldwide supply (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). However, China has failed to turn the monopoly advantage into profit and the prices of rare earth materials in China have changed dramatically and frequently in the past years. ...
This study investigated the volatility spillovers and dynamic correlations between international crude oil, new energy and rare earth markets in China, given China's dominating position in rare earths production/processing and the investable-commodity quality of rare earths. Furthermore, the asymmetric effects of volatility spillovers were also explored. The VAR-asymmetric BEKK-GARCH model and DCC-GARCH model were estimated on the basis of daily data, ranging from 2012 to 2018. The empirical results indicated that there was an indirect way through which volatility may transfer between oil and new energy markets, as cumulative risk originated in one market may transmit to another through the rare earth market. Consequently, the establishment and development of rare earth futures may be beneficial to risk control in financial markets. Besides, the dynamic correlations between the rare earths and new energy markets remained at a high level during the study period, which is consistent with rare earths usage in new energy applications.
Amidst the background of an increasingly evidenced shift to renewable energy, many studies explored the relationships between crude oil, renewable energy, and technology stock markets worldwide. However, research has yet to take the raw materials market into account financially. This study investigates the volatility spillovers between crude oil, renewable energy, and high-technology markets in China in time and frequency domains first. Thereupon the tri-market system is expanded to include the raw materials market (rare earths). The framework of wavelet analysis and BEKK-GARCH model with exogenous variables is applied. The results corroborate that there exists significant volatility spillover between renewable energy and high-technology stock markets, and the renewable energy market in China relates closer to high-technology than crude oil. Besides, the volatility spillovers vary by frequency, with D3 (8–16 days) results appearing more pronounced. Moreover, the rare earths market has significant impacts on the system, especially for high-technology and renewable energy markets. This suggests that as key raw materials to renewable energy development, rare earths may increase the risk transfer of the tri-market system. The results are of potential importance and use for investors and policy makers. In particular, taking the frequency perspective helps devising differentiated portfolio and risk management strategies.
This chapter interrogates the subtle shifts and blurring lines between conventional extraction—mineral and hydrocarbon—and ‘green’ extraction—intensive agriculture and renewable energy. Through the careful assembly of extensive amounts of empirics straddling these modalities of extraction, we identify and uncover a crucial nexus. We argue that this nexus is key in animating the present imperative of total extractivism. The nexus further reveals the violent technologies of extraction at work as it lays out further dimensions of the organization of the rapaciously devouring machinery spreading its grid across ever-increasing portions of the earth. The chapter thus traces the infrastructure—the ‘body’ of the Worldeater(s)—through mines, plantations, factory farms and renewable energy to chart the formation and/or spread of the Worldeater.
Wind energy is key to addressing the global climate challenge, but its development is subject to potential constraint of finite primary materials. Prior studies on material demand forecasting of wind power development are often limited to a few materials and with low technological resolution, thus hindering a comprehensive understanding of the impact of micro-engineering parameters on the resource implications of wind energy. In this study, we developed a component-by-component and stock-driven prospective material flow analysis model, and used bottom-up data on engineering parameters and wind power capacities to characterize the materials demand and secondary supply potentials of wind energy development in Denmark, a pioneering and leading country in wind power. We also explicitly addressed the uncertainties in the prospective modeling by the means of statistical estimation and sensitivity analysis methods. Our results reveal increasing challenges of materials provision and end-of-life (EoL) management in Denmark’s ambitious transition towards 100% renewable energy in the next decades. Harnessing potential secondary resource supply from EoL and extending lifetime could curtail the primary material demand, but they could not fully alleviate the material supply risk. Such model framework that considers bottom-up engineering parameters with increased precision could be applied to other emerging technologies and help reveal synergies and trade-offs of relevant resource, energy, and climate strategies in the future renewable energy and climate transition.
Im folgenden Kapitel wird auf Basis der gewonnen Einblicke in historische Erfahrungen im Umgang mit der Kritikalität von Rohstoffen anhand des Falls Seltener Erden aktuelle Evidenz zu unternehmerischen Rohstoffstrategien erlangt.
Critical metals are technologically vital to the functionality of various emerging technologies, yet they have a potentially unstable supply. This condition calls for strategic planning based on the expected long-term demand and supply of these metals and the implications attached. Here, we provide the first systematic review of studies (88 studies in all) exploring the projected long-term status of various critical materials, covering 48 elements with 546 data points for global demand through 2030 and 2050. Interestingly, results indicate that, to date, no long-term demand outlook is available for some high criticality metals. We also find that the social and environmental implications induced by demand growth are largely overlooked in these studies, resulting in less attention being given to the spatial divergence between consuming and producing countries in the global supply chain. Moreover, circular economy strategies that include component reuse and remanufacturing have been barely incorporated into the modelling frameworks presented in these studies, while end-of-life recycling is heavily focused on. In addition, elemental linkages (e.g., indium-zinc-steel) are underemphasized, leading to a lack of understanding of future availability and sustainable cycles. All of these findings affirm the need for further scientific research that explores the long-term status of critical metals, which strongly connects to the sustainable development goals of the United Nations and implementation of the Paris Agreement.
The boosting electric vehicle industry requires permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) to possess the characteristics of high power density, high efficiency and high reliability. This requires the motor to bear a higher power within a smaller volume, which results in the increase of heat generation inside the motor and the decrease of effective cooling space. To solve the severe heat dissipation problem of the PMSM, a novel heat pipe based thermal management strategy is proposed in the current study. 3-dimensional heat pipes are introduced into the gap between the winding and the casing, whereas potting silicon gelatin is used to fix the heat pipes and also increase the contact area.
The winding temperature rise under a wide range of cooling and working conditions are conducted to evaluate the cooling effect of this heat pipe based cooling strategy. As a comparison, the original motor and the motor only with heat pipes are also included in the tests. The results show that this novel approach maintains the lowest temperatures with a maximum decrease of 22.9 °C compared to the original motor, however, there is only 10 °C decrease for the motor only with heat pipes. Besides, the stable running time of the PMSM with this novel cooling strategy has increased about 50.6 s under the peak-load condition while the counterpart only with heat pipes almost has no enhancement. Furthermore, a numerical model is established and possesses the capability to coincide well with the experimental data, which paves the way to optimize the proposed heat pipe based thermal management solution.
Rare earth elements (REEs) are vital for the technology, military, and defense industries. They have been recognized as critical due to potential scarcity, supply constraints, and lack of minable concentrations. Therefore, alternative sources are needed to meet the demand and continue manufacturing rare earth-dependent products. However, the environmental prospect of rare earth mining was not investigated enough, and comprehensive studies are lacking. It demands serious consideration as toxic radionuclides are seen in the same mineralization as rare earths regardless of their primary or secondary sources. The concentration of these hazardous trace elements may be elevated as a result of extraction and beneficiation processes. Unless proper separation and disposal are performed, these radionuclides accumulate on the surface of the soil or integrate with aquatic systems, which consequently raise environmental and health concerns. This review manuscript compiled the environmental impact and aspect of rare earth extraction processes while addressing separation techniques for these radioactive materials from rare earths, emphasizing selective precipitation, solvent extraction, and solid-phase separation.
Three rare earth elements (REEs), neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy), are essential ingredients of permanent magnets, used widely in electronics, motors, hybrid cars, generators, televisions, sensors, and windmills. Conventional methods for producing high-purity REEs employ two-phase liquid–liquid extraction methods, which require thousands of mixer-settler units in series or in parallel and generate large amounts of toxic waste. In this study, a two-zone ligand-assisted displacement chromatography (LAD) system with a new zone-splitting method is developed for producing high-purity (>99%) Nd, Pr, and Dy with high yields (>99%) and high sorbent productivity from crude REE mixtures derived from waste magnets. The zone-splitting method based on selectivity-weighted composition factors enables a two-zone design to achieve two orders of magnitude higher productivity than that of a single column design. The design and simulation methods are based on first principles and intrinsic (or scale-independent) engineering parameters. They can be used to design processes for a wide range of feed compositions or production scales. The overall productivity of the two-zone LAD can exceed 100 kg REEs m⁻³ day⁻¹, which is 100 times higher than those of the conventional extraction methods. The LAD for the purification of the ternary mixture requires only three chromatography columns, a safe extractant, EDTA, and other environmentally friendly chemicals. Most of the chemicals can be recycled, generating little waste. This method has the potential for efficient and environmentally friendly purification of the REEs from waste magnets. The method may also help transform the current linear REE economy (from ores to pure REEs, to products, to landfills) to a circular and sustainable REE economy.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are seen as one of the solutions for the problems facing the transportation sector including pollution problems, climate change, dimensioning of fossil fuel, and energy security. However, EVs rely on materials identified critical due to risks associated with their supply and environmental impacts. This paper aims at analyzing EVs in China, their requirement for 16 materials, and their national and global implications. The analysis is carried out using multi-level dynamic MFA model and 9 scenarios investigating EVs and batteries market share, their materials content and lifetime, and materials recycling. EVs materials impacts on coproduced materials, and energy, water, and CO2 emissions associated with materials production are discussed. Global metals availability is not expected to constraint EVs development in China, while several metals availability in China is expected to limit their growth. Significant increase in most metals production capacity is required. Extending EVs lifetime and using more than one battery reduce risks associated with REEs and increase those associated with other metals. Metals stock in use is expected to be significant compared to current Chinese reserves. EVs development in China has significant implications on resources availability, mainly REEs and graphite, for other world regions and other sectors.
Zinc zirconate nanocomposites with varying compositions of Dy3+ ions were synthesized through a solution combustion method using citric acid as a fuel. There were mixed hexagonal ZnO and cubic ZrO2 phases in the X-ray diffraction patterns of the composites whose average crystallite sizes range between 27 and 38 nm. Scanning electron microscopy images show a mixture of polygonal and hexagonal rod-like structures of varying aggregation levels at the different Dy3+ -doping concentrations. The reflectance spectra showed absorption edges around 400 nm and an energy bandgap between 2.99 and 3.07 eV. There was a violet emission from the host matrix that gradually shifted towards white light with enhanced doping. At a higher Dy3+ concentration, there was luminescence quenching attributed to dipole-dipole interaction among the dopant ions. The synthesized nanocomposite phosphors may be used in sensors and colored display technology.
Attempts to track material flows and the calculation of efficiency for material systems go hand in hand. Questions of where materials come from, where materials go to, and how much material is lost along the way are embedded in human societies. This article reviews material flows, their analysis, and progress toward material efficiency. We focus first on material flow analysis (MFA) and the three key tenants of any MFA: presentation of materials, visualization of the flow structure, and insight derived from analysis. Reviewing recent literature, we explore how each of these concepts is described, organized, and presented in MFA studies. We go on to show the role of MFA in material efficiency calculations and what-if scenario analysis for informed decision-making. We investigate the origins and motivations behind the material efficiency paradigm and the key efficiency strategies and practices developed in recent years and conclude by suggesting priorities for a future research agenda.
Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Materials Research, Volume 52 is July 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
In this study, Nd–Fe–B magnets with the type of N42 were employed to modify the microstructure and the magnetic properties. The Nd2Fe14B spherical grains were enveloped in a Nd rich grain boundary phase, and they produced unordinary heterostructures. The exchange bias behavior on the permanent magnet Nd–Fe–B was investigated at 5 K. The temperature dependence of magnetization measurement found spin-reorientation transition in the vicinity of temperature T = 100 K. When temperature under 100 K, ferromagnetic property played a major role with frozen magnetic moment. The coercivity at 5 K was larger but the negative saturated magnetic moments was lower compared to that at room temperature. In the magnetic hysteresis (M–H) loops at 5 K to 50 K, the negative shift of H and the positive shift of M along axis increased sharply with the temperature drops. The training effect was observed due to the existence of frozen spin moment. The exchange bias could be ascribed to minor loop effect and unidirectional anisotropy with spin-reorientation transition.
Global initiatives are focused on deploying clean energy technologies, such as wind energy, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. U.S. onshore and offshore wind targets have been particularly aggressive. Some wind energy technologies, such as direct-drive wind turbines, rely on a volatile and Chinese-concentrated rare earth element (REE) supply chain. Global efforts have been made to develop new sources of REEs, with limited success. This lack of rare earth availability has been suggested to inhibit direct-drive adoption, despite its energy efficiency benefits. However, it is unclear if new U.S. REE supply could adequately support onshore and offshore direct-drive wind energy growth, and help meet U.S. wind energy targets. This analysis estimates U.S. and Chinese REE availability that could support U.S. direct-drive and other REE demand. Results indicated that U.S. wind installation targets with solely direct-drive designs could only require 4–12% of maximum light rare earth production from Mountain Pass, Bear Lodge and phosphate rock mines. When considering market dynamics and hypothetical U.S. production, U.S. light REE production capacity was not able to provide sufficient light rare earths to achieve wind energy targets. U.S. wind energy targets could be achieved by prioritizing 3–17% of U.S. light REE production for direct-drive wind energy.
The accelerating pace of energy use transition towards renewable energy worldwide has triggered the amplification of the demand for rare earths. This paper aims to explore the risk transfer between renewable energy and rare earth markets from the perspective of firms. The intention is motivated by the observation that significant investments regarding renewable energy are projected for the future and rare earths have emerged as an investment vehicle. By applying the DY (Diebold and Yilmaz) index onto high-frequency data, this paper sheds light on the connectedness between new energy and rare earth markets at firm level. Empirical results show that moderate volatility spillovers exist between these two markets in China. The risk transfer between firms in renewable energy and rare earth markets is also delineated in the form of network connectedness. The magnitude of risk transfer among firms may alter and the structure of risk transfer has seen shifts of focuses among firms over time. Furthermore, using the method of spillover asymmetric measure, pessimistic mood is detected in both markets during most of the period from 2012 to 2020, which indicates a lack of confidence and efficiency in the financing channel of stock. Compared with the existing literature, this article provides a finance-oriented exploration between these two markets using high-frequency data and a detailed illustration at firm level, which may help inform the decision-making for stakeholders.
Designing new rare-earth-free (REF) permanent magnetic materials (PMM) to replace the high performing but critically restrained rare-earth-based PMM remains a great challenge to the scientific community. Here, we report on the rational design of new REF PMM, Hf2MIr5B2 (M = Fe, Mn) via a theory-experiment combined approach. Density functional theory (DFT) predicted strong interchain M-M spin-exchange coupling and large magnetocrystalline anisotropy energies (EMAE) for the new compounds, suggesting potential intrinsic PMM properties. Subsequent experimental bulk syntheses and magnetic characterizations established the highest ordering temperature (TC ∼ 900 K) for Hf2FeIr5B2 and the highest intrinsic coercivity (HC) value for Hf2MnIr5B2 (HC = 62.1 kA/m) reported to date for Ti3Co5B2-type compounds. Importantly, at room temperature both phases show significant coercivities due to intrinsic factors only, hinting at their huge potential to create REF PMM by improving extrinsic factors such as controlling the microstructure and the domain orientation.
Zusammenfassung
Angesichts einer begrenzten Deponiekapazität der Erde und einer zunehmenden Kritikalität von Ressourcen und Lieferketten gewinnt die Kreislaufführung der Stoffflüsse zentrale Bedeutung. Der Abfall wird zum Wertstoff. Kenntnisse über seine stoffliche Zusammensetzung werden zum zentralen Ansatzpunkt der Steuerung umweltökonomisch effizienter Wertschöpfungskreisläufe. Durch die digitale Spiegelung der realen Prozesse wird dies möglich. Das Konzept des Total Design Management ermöglicht das simultane Optimieren von Werkstoff-, Produkt- und Recycling-Design. Nachhaltigkeit wird stringent in Bezug auf die durch den digitalen Raum gegebenen Systemgrenzen definiert. Aus volkwirtschaftlicher Sicht entsteht eine transaktionsökonomisch begründbare Abwägung zwischen internationaler Arbeitsteilung und Technologiesouveränität. Wie diese ausfällt, hängt stark von der Regulierung der Märkte und den Lieferkettenrisiken ab.
Fly ash dan bottom ash (FABA) merupakan limbah hasil sisa pembakaran batubara dari pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU). FABA yang dihasilkan akan terus meningkat seiring dengan meningkatnya kebutuhan energi listrik yang harus dipenuhi. Komposisi FABA secara umum berupa silika, alumina, oksida besi, dan senyawa oksida lainnya. Abu yang dihasilkan dari pembakaran batubara berpotensi secara ekonomis karena mengandung beberapa unsur berharga antara lain Ge, Ga, unsur tanah jarang (REY), Nb, Zr, V, Re, Au, Ag, dan logam dasar seperti Al. Karakteristik fisik dan kimia FABA merupakan aspek penting yang dapat memengaruhi, baik potensi penggunaan maupun metode pembuangan atau penyimpanan limbah yang akan dilakukan. Potensi pemanfaatan FABA telah banyak digunakan pada bidang geoteknik, salah satunya diaplikasikan sebagai material geopolimer. Selain itu, FABA juga mengandung cenosphere yang merupakan salah satu material bernilai ekonomis tinggi dan telah banyak diaplikasikan pada berbagai bidang industri. Berbagai teknik pemisahan material untuk meningkatkan potensi nilai guna FABA telah berhasil dikembangkan, antara lain metode ektraksi cenosphere, logam berharga serta unsur jejak seperti REY, juga unburned carbon.
Economic policy uncertainty and particularly COVID-19 has stimulated the need to investigate alternative avenues for policy risk management. In this context, this study examines the dynamic association among economic policy uncertainty, green bonds, clean energy stocks, and global rare earth elements. A dynamic conditional correlation-multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model was used to gauge the time-varying co-movements among these indices. The analysis finds that green bonds act more as a hedge than a safe haven against economic policy uncertainty (EPU). In the case of diversification, green bonds work as diversifiers with clean energy stocks and rare earth elements during COVID-19 and in the whole sample period. Additionally, clean energy stocks and rare earth elements show safe haven properties against EPUs. This study contributes to the hedging and safe haven literature with some new insight considering the role of green bonds and clean energy stocks. Additionally, the outcomes of the research contribute toward the literature of portfolio diversification theory. These findings pave the way for not only US investors to hedge long-term economic policy risk by investing in green bonds, but also for China and the UK, as these financial assets (green bonds, clean energy stocks, and rare earth metals) and EPU are long-term financial and economic variables.
The present paper addresses the preparation and characterization of anhydrous oxygen-free rare earth materials, such as terbium fluoride (TbF3). The fluorination of terbium oxide (Tb4O7) by ammonium bifluoride (NH4HF2) to prepare anhydrous TbF3 was reported in this work. The parameters affecting fluorination were studied, including the fluorination temperature, excess stoichiometric amount of NH4HF2, and time for fluorination. The temperatures of Tb4O7 fluorination by NH4HF2 determined by thermogravimetric analysis and differential thermal analysis ranged from 350°C to 500°C. The phase structure of the as-prepared products identified by the X-ray diffraction method was indexed to the orthorhombic phase of TbF3 [space group: Pnma (no. 62)] that exhibited good accordance with the values in the standard cards JCPDS No. 37-1487 for TbF3. Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) methods were used to analyze the elemental compositions in the as-prepared products; the fluorine (F) and terbium (Tb) elemental compositions calculated from the [TbF3] formula are in good agreement with those calculated from the EDS pattern. The optimum parameters for fluorination were determined from the results, and anhydrous oxygen-free TbF3 can be used to study the preparation of metallic terbium by the calcinothermic reduction method.
This study explores the time and frequency spillover relationship between the political risk (PR) of major importers and exporters and the stock returns of China's rare earths (RER) by using the spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) (D&Y (2012, 2014)) and Baruník and Křehlík (2018) (B&K (2018)). The research results indicate that the average total spillovers between PR and RER are 35.55%, in which short-term spillovers play a dominant role with the average proportion of 71.21%. In particular, the spillover index increases significantly during major financial and political events, including the global financial crisis, European debt crisis, China-Japan diplomatic event, the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, the announcement of WTO dispute resolution about rare earths (REs) and the US presidential election. In addition, Myanmar has the largest PR index, which is also the biggest contributor in the spillover network regardless of time periods. In terms of RER, it is a net receiver of spillovers from PR, which obtains more spillovers from importing countries than exporting countries. Generally, Japan, Estonia, Myanmar and the Netherlands are the top spillover emitters to RER while Germany, France, Japan and India are the main spillover receivers from RER. Moreover, Japan emits evidently more spillovers to RER in the long term and during major political event.
Dysprosium (Dy) is a critical rare earth element. However, its supply, consumption, trade, and recycling along the entire supply chain have not been clearly investigated, especially for China where most Dy is produced and used. This study quantified the Dy flows and stocks in mainland China during 1990-−2019. Key findings are as follows: (1) domestic Dy demand increased by 16-fold during 2004−2019, driven by green technologies; (2) Dy mine production failed to grow significantly after 2010 under intensified environmental regulations; (3) China's total Dy exports increased steadily, with exported commodities changing from upstream to downstream products; (4) in-use Dy stocks grew by 15-fold during 2006−2019, implicating big potentials of urban mining, but commercial recycling systems have not been established. This study reveals the importance of supply-demand monitoring, environmental governance, and global cooperation to Dy industries, and highlights the necessity of material flow analysis for improving metal supply chain management.
Demand for the rare earth elements (REE, lanthanide elements) is estimated to be increasing at a rate of about 8% per year due to increasing applications in consumer products, computers, automobiles, aircraft, and other advanced technology products. Much of this demand growth is driven by new technologies that increase energy efficiency and substitute away from fossil fuels. Production of these elements is highly concentrated in China, which is reducing its exports of REE raw materials as part of its industrial policy. The ability of the rest of the world to replace supply from China depends on the quality of known REE resources and the degree to which those resources have been explored and evaluated. A review of United States resources in a global context finds that the United States could make significant contributions to future REE production. Aside from two advanced projects in the United States and Australia, however, there are no REE projects advanced enough to meet short-term demand.
The Energy [R]evolution 2010 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios published in 2007 and 2008. It takes up recent trends in global energy demand and production and analyses to which extent this affects chances for achieving climate protection targets. The main target is to reduce global CO2 emissions to 3.7 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to below 2°C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A ten-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry.
The composition, microstructure and processing of NdFeB-type permanent magnets are all critical factors for the successful production of high performance magnet components. Three common fabrication routes can be used to categorize these NdFeB-based bulk magnets: sintering, polymer bonding and hot deformation. Generally, the former type of magnet has a high-energy product (30–50 MGOe), full density and a relatively simple shape. Bonded magnets have intermediate energy products (10–18 MGOe), lower density and can be formed into intricate net-shapes. Hot deformed magnets possess full density, intermediate to high-energy products (15–46 MGOe), isotropic or anisotropic properties and have the potential to be formed into net shapes. This article discusses the critical issues of improved magnetic performance, environmental stability, net-shape formability and magnetization behavior for the main categories of NdFeB magnets.
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