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A SIMPLE TEST OF NORMALITY
FOR TIME SERIES
I
G
G
GN
N
NA
A
AC
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CI
I
IO
O
O
N. L
O
O
OB
B
BA
A
AT
T
TO
O
O
Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM)
C
A
A
AR
R
RL
L
LO
O
OS
S
S
V
E
E
EL
L
LA
A
AS
S
SC
C
CO
O
O
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats
and
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
This paper considers testing for normality for correlated data+The proposed test
procedure employs the skewness-kurtosis test statistic,but studentized by stan-
dard error estimators that are consistent under serial dependence of the observa-
tions+The standard error estimators are sample versions of the asymptotic quantities
that do not incorporate any downweighting,and,hence,no smoothing parameter
is needed+Therefore,the main feature of our proposed test is its simplicity,because
it does not require the selection of any user-chosen parameter such as a smooth-
ing number or the order of an approximating model+
1. INTRODUCTION
There has been recent interest in testing for normality for economic and finan-
cial data+For instance,Bai and Ng ~2001!test for normality in a set of macro-
economic series,whereas Bontemps and Meddahi ~2002!emphasize financial
applications+Kilian and Demiroglu ~2001!present a variety of cases where test-
ing for normality is of interest for econometricians+These applications include
financial and economic ones where,for instance,assessing whether abnormal
financial profits or economic growth rates are normal is important for the spec-
ification of financial and economic models+They also present methodological
applications where testing for normality is a previous step for the design of
some tests,such as tests for structural stability or tests of forecast encompassing+
In econometrics,testing for normality is customarily performed by means of
the skewness-kurtosis test+The main reasons for its widespread use are its
We are very grateful to Don Andrews and two referees for useful comments and suggestions+We are especially
thankful to a referee who provided a FORTRAN code+Lobato acknowledges financial support from Asociación
Mexicana de Cultura and from Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologìa ~CONACYT!under project grant
41893-S+Velasco acknowledges financial support from Spanish Dirección General de Enseñanza Superior,BEC
2001-1270+Address correspondence to:Ignacio N+Lobato,Centro de Investigación Económica,Instituto Tec-
nológico Autónomo de México ~ITAM!,Av+Camino Sta+Teresa 930,México D+F+10700,Mexico;e-mail:
ilobato@itam+mx;and Carlos Velasco,Dep+d’Economia i d’Història Econòmica,UniversitatAutònoma de Bar-
celona,08193 Cerdanyola dep Valles,Spain;e-mail:Carlos+Velasco@uab+es+
Econometric Theory,20,2004,671–689+Printed in the United States of America+
DOI:10+10170S0266466604204030
© 2004 Cambridge University Press 0266-4666004 $12+00 671
straightforward implementation and interpretation+The skewness-kurtosis test
statistic is the sum of the square of the sample skewness and the excess kurto-
sis coefficients properly standardized by their asymptotic variances in the white
noise case,6 and 24,respectively+Implementing the skewness-kurtosis test is
very simple because it compares the skewness-kurtosis test statistic against upper
critical values of a chi-squared distribution with two degrees of freedom ~x
2
2
!+
This test is typically applied to the residual series of dynamic econometric mod-
els ~see,e+g+, Lütkepohl,1991,Sect+4+5!+
In many empirical studies with time series data,the application of the
skewness-kurtosis test is questionable,though+The reason is that the previous
asymptotic variances are correct under the assumption that the model is cor-
rectly specified,implying that the sequence under examination is uncorre-
lated+However,on many occasions either the researcher might specify the model
incorrectly or might not even be interested in modeling the serial correlation+
In both cases,when the considered data are correlated,the asymptotic vari-
ances are no longer 6 and 24 but some functions of all the autocorrelations+In
this situation the skewness-kurtosis test is invalid because it does not control
asymptotically the type I error+
In this paper we propose to employ the standard test statistic based on the
sample skewness and sample kurtosis,but studentized by standard error esti-
mators that are consistent under serial dependence of the observations+The
standard error estimators are sample versions of the asymptotic quantities that
do not incorporate any downweighting,and,hence,no smoothing parameter is
needed+These standard error estimators are consistent even though the asymp-
totic standard errors involve infinite sums of terms that depend on all autocor-
relations+The reason is that in the expression of the asymptotic standard errors,
the autocorrelations enter raised to the cubic or fourth powers+Hence,the pow-
ers of the sample autocorrelations provide stochastic dampening factors,sim-
ilar to the nonstochastic dampening factors that appear in the standard
nonparametric approach+By contrast,Bai and Ng ~2001!and Bontemps and
Meddahi ~2002!rely on smoothing with kernel methods+
Our test can employ either frequency or time domain estimators of the asymp-
totic variances of the sample skewness and the sample excess kurtosis+Although
the proposed test is based on a time domain estimator,in the technical part of
the paper in the Appendixes we stress a frequency domain estimator because it
is relatively easier to handle theoretically+In addition,for conciseness of expo-
sition,we only analyze the univariate case+
The plan of the paper is the following+Section 2 presents the framework+
Section 3 introduces the proposed test statistic and studies its asymptotic theory+
Section 4 discusses the proposed variance estimators+Section 5 examines the
case where the considered series are the residuals of regression and time series
models+Section 6 considers the finite sample performance of the proposed test
in a brief Monte Carlo exercise+The technical material is included in the
Appendixes+
672 IGNACIO N. LOBATO AND CARLOS VELASCO
2. FRAMEWORK
Notation+Let x
t
be an ergodic strictly stationary process with mean mand
centered moments denoted by m
k
5E~x
t
2m!
k
for knatural,with [m
k
5
n
21
(
t51
n
~x
t
2Sx!
k
being the corresponding sample moments where Sxis the
sample mean and nis the sample size+In addition,g~ j!denotes the population
autocovariance of order j,g~ j!5E@~ x
1
2m!~ x
11j
2m!#,and [g~ j!is the
corresponding sample autocovariance,[g~ j!5n
21
(
t51
n26j6
~x
t
2Sx!~x
t16j6
2Sx!+
Notice that m
2
5g~0!+Let f~l! be the spectral density function of x
t
,defined by
g~ j!5
E
P
f~l!exp~ijl! dlj50,1,2,+++, (1)
where P5@2p,p#,and let I~l! denote the periodogram I~l! 56w~l!6
2
where w~l! 5~2pn!
2102
(
t51
n
x
t
exp~itl!+In addition,k
q
~j
1
,+++,j
q21
!denotes
the qth-order cumulant of x
1
,x
11j
1
,+++,x
11j
q21
,and the marginal cumulant of
order qis k
q
5k
q
~0,+++,0!+
Null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis of interest is that the
marginal distribution of x
t
is normal+For the independent case,omnibus tests
for this null hypothesis such as the Shapiro–Wilk test ~Shapiro and Wilk,1965!,
which is based on order statistics,or tests based on the distance between the
empirical distribution function and the normal cumulative distribution function
such as the Kolmogorov–Smirnov,the Cramér–von Mises,or the Anderson–
Darling test have been proposed+A test based on L
2
distance between Gaussian
and empirical characteristic functions has been introduced by Epps and Pulley
~1983!and developed by Henze and others+For more details see Mardia ~1980!,
Henze ~1997!,Epps ~1999!,and references therein+For the independent case,
the omnibus tests are consistent,but it has been shown that their finite sample
performance can be very poor ~see,e+g+, Shapiro,Wilk,and Chen,1968!+For
the weak dependent case,no such analysis exists because inference with these
omnibus test statistics is problematic as a result of the fact that their asymptotic
distributions are nonstandard and case dependent+Hence,the standard applica-
tion of these tests to weak dependent time series sequences is invalid ~see Gleser
and Moore,1983!+The only developed test of which we are aware is the one
by Epps ~1987!that is based on the characteristic function+However,Epps’s
procedure is hard to implement because sensing functions g~x
t
,v!have to be
selected,a joint spectral density of sensing functions has to be found,a matrix
has to be inverted,and a quadratic form has to be minimized to estimate the
marginal mean and variance+In addition,there is the disadvantage of having to
choose the parameters vthat enter g~{,v!+
In practice,instead of the previous omnibus tests,the common procedure
just tests whether the third and fourth marginal moments coincide with those
of the normal distribution+Equivalently,in terms of the cumulants,it is tested
that the third and fourth marginal cumulants are zero instead of testing that all
SIMPLE TEST OF NORMALITY FOR TIME SERIES 673
higher order marginal cumulants are zero+We follow this practice,and in this
paper we test that the marginal distribution is normal by testing that m
3
50
and m
4
53m
2
2
+Of course,the derived tests are not consistent because they
cannot detect deviations from normality that are not reflected in the third or
fourth moments+
The skewness-kurtosis test. This test compares the skewness-kurtosis test
statistic
SK 5n[m
3
2
6[m
2
3
1n~[m
4
23[m
2
!
2
24 [m
2
4
against upper critical values of a x
2
2
distribution ~see Bowman and Shenton,
1975!+Apart from the fact that Jarque and Bera ~1987!have shown the opti-
mality of this test within the Pearson family of distributions,the popularity of
this approach resides in its simplicity as we mentioned previously+In fact,now-
adays most econometrics packages customarily report the SK test,which is called
the Jarque–Bera test+
The SK test procedure is justified on the following grounds+When the con-
sidered series x
t
is an uncorrelated Gaussian process,the following limiting
result holds:
M
nS[m
3
[m
4
23[m
2
2
Dr
d
NS6m
2
3
0
024m
2
4
D
,(2)
where r
d
denotes convergence in distribution+However,when x
t
is a Gauss-
ian process satisfying the weak dependent condition
(
j50
`
6g~ j!6,`, (3)
the result ~2!is replaced by
M
nS[m
3
[m
4
23[m
2
2
Dr
d
NS6F
~3!
0
024F
~4!
D
,(4)
where
F
~k!
5(
i52`
`
g~i!
k
,(5)
for k53,4~see Lomnicki,1961;Gasser,1975!+Notice that condition ~3!guar-
antees that all F
~k!
are well defined because it entails that (6g~ j!6
r
,`, for
all natural r+
Hence,when the series exhibits serial correlation,the SK test is invalid because
the denominators of its components do not estimate consistently the true asymp-
674 IGNACIO N. LOBATO AND CARLOS VELASCO
totic variances in ~4!,implying that asymptotically its rejection probabilities do
not coincide with the desired nominal levels under the null hypothesis+
3. THE GENERALIZED SKEWNESS-KURTOSIS TEST
In the previous section we have seen that the SK test is invalid when the con-
sidered process x
t
exhibits serial correlation+One strategy to overcome this prob-
lem is to carry out a two-step test where the SK procedure is applied after testing
that the considered series is uncorrelated+However,this solution is not simple
because there is an obvious pretest problem in such a sequential procedure and,
furthermore,testing for uncorrelatedness for non-Gaussian series is rather chal-
lenging ~see Lobato,Nankervis,and Savin,2002!+
Looking at ~4!two natural solutions appear+The first one consists of modi-
fying the SK test statistic by including consistent estimators of F
~3!
and F
~4!
in
the denominators of its components+This solution is proposed by Gasser ~1975,
Sect+6!,who suggested truncating the infinite sums that appear in the asymp-
totic variances+However,he did not provide any formal analysis or any recom-
mendation about the selection of the truncation number+As we will see,our
proposed procedure overcomes these difficulties because it does not require the
selection of any truncation number+The second solution estimates the unknown
asymptotic variances with the bootstrap;that is,it employs the SK test statistic
with bootstrap-based critical values+Implementing the bootstrap in a time series
context is problematic because generally valid bootstrap procedures require the
introduction of an arbitrary user-chosen number,typically a block length ~see,
e+g+, Davison and Hinkley,1997,Ch+8!+Therefore in this paper we follow the
first approach+Furthermore,in our case the bootstrap does not present a clear
theoretical advantage because the SK statistic is not asymptotically pivotal+
Before introducing our test statistic,let us consider the following estimator
of F
~k!
,which is the sample analog of ~5!:
ZF
~k!
5(
j512n
n21
[g~ j!
k
+(6)
In the next section we consider alternative versions of this estimator and study
their large sample properties;in particular,Lemma 1 establishes the consis-
tency of ZF
~k!
for F
~k!
for Gaussian processes that satisfy condition ~3!+Then,
our proposed test statistic,the generalized SK statistic,is
G5n[m
3
2
6ZF
~3!
1n~[m
4
23[m
2
!
2
24 ZF
~4!
+
The Gstatistic does not require the introduction of any user chosen number,
and,in view of ~4!and Lemma 1 in the next section,the proposed test con-
sists of comparing the Gtest statistic against upper critical values from a x
2
2
distribution+
SIMPLE TEST OF NORMALITY FOR TIME SERIES 675
In the next assumption we introduce the class of processes under the alter-
native hypothesis for which both EF
~k!
and ZF
~k!
converge to bounded positive
constants,and hence whenever m
3
Þ0orm
4
Þ3m
2
2
,the Gtest rejects with
probability tending to 1 as ntends to infinity+Notice that the conditions of
Gasser ~1975!that involve summability conditions of cumulants of all orders
are relaxed to cumulants up to order 16 using an extension of Theorem 3 in
Rosenblatt ~1985,p+58!+
Assumption A+The process x
t
satisfies Ex
t16
,`, and,for q52,3,+++,16,
(
j
1
52`
`
+++ (
j
q21
52`
`
6k
q
~j
1
,+++,j
q21
!6,`, (7)
and,for k53,4,
(
j51
`
@E6~E~x
0
2m!
k
6I
2j
!2m
k
6
2
#
102
,`, (8)
where I
2j
denotes the s-field generated by x
t
,t#2j,and,for k53,4,
E@~ x
0
2m!
k
2m
k
#
2
12(
j51
`
E~@~x
0
2m!
k
2m
k
#@~x
j
2m!
k
2m
k
#! .0+(9)
Assumption A is a weak dependent assumption that implies that the higher
order spectral densities up to the sixteenth order are bounded and continuous+
For the case q52,expression ~7!implies that condition ~3!holds+We require
finite moments up to the sixteenth order because we need to evaluate the vari-
ance of the fourth power of the sample autocovariances+Notice that condition
~9!assures that the asymptotic variances of estimates are positive+
The following theorem establishes the asymptotic properties of the Gtest+
THEOREM 1+
(i) Under the null hypothesis and for Gaussian processes that satisfy con-
dition (3), G r
d
x
2
2
+
(ii) Under Assumption A, the test statistic G diverges to infinity whenever
m
3
Þ0or m
4
Þ3m
2
2
.
The asymptotic null distribution is straightforward to derive given the con-
sistency of ZF
~k!
for F
~k!
that is proved in Lemma 1 in the next section+The
proof of ~ii!is omitted because it follows easily using that under the alternative
hypothesis ZF
~k!
converges to a bounded positive constant ~by ~7!and ~9!!,
whereas the numerator of Gdiverges+
676 IGNACIO N. LOBATO AND CARLOS VELASCO
4. CONSISTENT VARIANCE ESTIMATORS
Following the literature on nonparametric estimation of asymptotic covariance
matrices,the standard approach to estimate F
~k!
consistently employs a smoothed
estimator such as
(
j512n
n21
w
j
[g~ j!
k
+(10)
In ~10!the weights $w
j
%are usually obtained through a lag window $w
j
5
w~j0M!% such that the weight function w~{! verifies some regularity proper-
ties and Mis a smoothing number that grows slowly with n+Note that the
introduction of the smoothing number leads to estimators whose rate of con-
vergence is usually slower than the parametric rate+We stress that in this
approach the weights $w
j
%provide a nonstochastic dampening on the [g~ j!
k
for large j+Because of this dampening,the estimator in ~10!is consistent for
~5!as it happens in the case k51,where f~0!is consistently estimated by
autocorrelation robust estimators ~see,e+g+, Robinson and Velasco,1997!+
As mentioned in the introduction,the main problem with the smoothing
approach is that statistical inference can be very sensitive to the selection of
the user-chosen weights;in our context,the discussion in Section I in Robin-
son ~1998!is especially relevant+In the absence of a clear and rigorously jus-
tified procedure to select the smoothing number in our testing framework,we
prefer to analyze estimators that do not require any smoothing+
Our first estimator ZF
~k!
,introduced in equation ~6!,also admits a frequency
domain version ~see Appendix A!+For technical reasons,in this paper we con-
sider a second estimator that can be motivated by writing F
~k!
in terms of the
spectral density function of the x
t
process using ~1!:
F
~k!
5(
j52`
`
g~ j!
k
5(
j52`
`
)
h51
k
H
E
P
f~v
h
!exp~ijv
h
!dv
h
J
52p
E
P
k21
f~v
1
1{{{ 1v
k21
!)
h51
k21
$f~v
h
!dv
h
%+(11)
The sample analog of the previous equation renders the following alternative
estimator for F
~k!
:
EF
~k!
5~2p!
k
n
k21
(
j
1
51
n21
+++ (
j
k21
51
n21
I~l
j
1
!+++I~l
j
k21
!I~l
j
1
1{{{ 1l
j
k21
!,(12)
where l
j
52pj0n+The estimator EF
~k!
can also be written in the time domain
by plugging
I~l
j
!51
2p(
t512n
n21
exp~itl
j














