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The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City

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Abstract

In 1989, the government of Mexico City introduced a program, Hoy No Circula, that bans most drivers from using their vehicles one weekday per week on the basis of the last digit of the vehicle's license plate. This article measures the effect of the driving restrictions on air quality using high-frequency measures from monitoring stations. Across pollutants and specifications there is no evidence that the restrictions have improved air quality. Evidence from additional sources indicates that the restrictions led to an increase in the total number of vehicles in circulation as well as a change in composition toward high-emissions vehicles. (c) 2008 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved..

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... The purpose of this study is to identify the effect of Seoul's LEZ on air quality and to uncover the underlying mechanism by building on several relevant studies in the literature. Davis [13] analyzed the effect of the alternate no-driving policy in Mexico City with ordinary least squares (OLS) and regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) but found no evidence of improving air quality. Percoco [14] showed the limited effect of congestion traffic fees in London LEZ with RDiT, while Li et al. [15] demonstrated the effect of fuel standard changes in China with both Difference-in-Difference (DD) and RDiT methods. ...
... This study employs regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) as an empirical analysis tool, instead of the commonly used Difference-in-Difference (DD) approach, to measure the effectiveness of an air quality policy. In a related context, Davis [13] used RDiT to estimate the impact of Mexico City's Hoy No Cirrcula, a Weekly Car Free Day system, on air quality. Davis [13] cited two reasons for choosing the RDiT: (i) its capability to address endogeneity from unobserved factors through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS); and (ii) the applicability of RDiT in scenarios without a reasonable counterfactual. ...
... In a related context, Davis [13] used RDiT to estimate the impact of Mexico City's Hoy No Cirrcula, a Weekly Car Free Day system, on air quality. Davis [13] cited two reasons for choosing the RDiT: (i) its capability to address endogeneity from unobserved factors through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS); and (ii) the applicability of RDiT in scenarios without a reasonable counterfactual. For instance, comparing Mexico City to any other city could potentially address time-varying omitted variables. ...
Article
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This study investigates the effect of the low emission zone (LEZ), designed to restrict old diesel vehicles, on air quality in Seoul, Republic of Korea, using the regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) approach. While previous studies have examined LEZ impacts using traditional econometric models such as time series and panel data approaches, our research uniquely integrates high-frequency daily weather data to better control for confounding environmental variables and captures time-of-day effects on pollutant concentrations. Our findings reveal that the LEZ policy effectively reduced NO2 and SO2 concentrations by 4.7% and 11.6%, respectively. Notably, during daytime hours, when traffic is heaviest, NO2, SO2, and PM10 concentrations decreased by 7.1%, 14.8%, and 13.6%, respectively. These results suggest that the observed improvements can be attributed not only to reduced diesel vehicle registrations but also to significant declines in overall traffic volume.
... Our coefficient of interest, 1 , estimates the reduced form effect of the introduction of the massive public transport fare discounts on air quality, measuring the local estimation of the treatment effect around the date of implementation. Our empirical approach, which is in line with that used by Davis (2008) and Chen and Whalley (2012), offers clear advantages when the evaluated policy affects all observed subjects simultaneously (i.e., all the monitoring stations of the 23 Spanish cities considered in our sample), leaving no appropriate counterfactual available. 16 16 As discussed in Section 2, our empirical strategy is a convenient complement to check the validity of the counterfactuals used by those papers adopting a difference-in-differences approach to measure the impact of transit discounts on air quality, as pollution spillovers carry over long distances and can affect the control groups. ...
... This can be considered a limitation of our study in assessing the ability of the PTD policy to improve air quality through a reduction in road traffic. Indeed, CO is the pollutant most linked to car usage (Chen and Whalley, 2012;Davis, 2008;Gallego et al., 2013). fixed effects to assess the average difference in ridership values before and after the implementation of the policy. ...
... In recent years, the effectiveness of driving restriction policies (DRPs) in improving air pollution and alleviating traffic congestion has become a focal point of scholarly debate [16,17]. Unfortunately, the research is inconclusive. ...
... DRPs are not unique to China. Mexico also implemented a DRP to improve air quality; however, Davis found this DRP ineffective in improving air quality [16]. However, Carrillo et al. found that a DRP in Ecuador significantly reduced carbon monoxide (CO) emissions [23]. ...
Article
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Automotive exhaust emissions contribute significantly to air pollution in developing countries. However, the effectiveness of driving restriction policies (DRPs) is unclear, and most research on China emphasizes Beijing. This study used Chengdu, a typical large city in China, to examine the impact of a DRP on air quality. To alleviate potential endogeneity threats, we employed a regression discontinuity design to verify the policy’s effect. The results show that the DRP significantly reduced air pollution levels, effectively improving air quality in restricted areas. The heterogeneity analysis found that (1) the DRP effectively reduced pollution in newly added and original areas, while the air quality in adjacent areas deteriorated; and (2) the DRP significantly improved air quality during peak travel periods but had no significant impact in other periods. Our results indicate that the DRP is an effective tool for urban environmental governance but presents potential negative aspects. Therefore, restricted areas and periods should be carefully considered when designing similar policies. This study provides significant insights into the governance of automotive exhaust emissions pollution for large cities in developing countries.
... Studies on the effectiveness of LPR in reducing congestion or air pollution have also produced mixed results . While some show proofs of air pollution reduction under LPR based on regression analysis (Liu and Kong, 2021;Zhang et al., 2017;Viard and Fu, 2015), others find that LPR has little, sometimes even adverse, effect on pollution mitigation, partly caused by rescheduled trips, increased private car ownership, and non-compliance (Davis, 2008;Davis, 2017;Guerra and Reyes, 2022;Xiao et al., 2019). The impact of LPR on modal shift (e.g. to mass transit, taxis or cycling) has been studied in Rao et al. (2017), Yang et al. (2018) and Kalman (2021). ...
... Some studies show that driving restrictions towards private car use are effective in diverting demand to mass transit (Rao et al., 2017), taxis/ride-hailing (Yang et al., 2018;Lin et al., 2022) or cycling (Kalman, 2021). However, policies like LPR achieve far less than expected in certain cases (Guerra and Reyes, 2022), as travelers tend to circumvent such a restriction by rescheduling their trips (Gu et al., 2017) or purchasing additional vehicles (Davis, 2008). Certain drivers even disregard the restrictions, especially during peak hours Wang et al., 2014). ...
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Transport policies targeting emission reduction and air quality improvement typically discourage private car use and promote shifts to mass transit (bus, metro). However, possible increase of travelers' exposure while adapting to those policies have often been overlooked, which is addressed in this work via a case study of Heavy Pollution Episodes (HPEs) in Chengdu, China, using city-scale traffic camera and transit ridership data. By investigating traffic fluctuation and modal shift under prolonged license plate rationing for private cars and free or discounted fare for mass transit, we show that the reduction of small car traffic was marginal (up to 2.3% in 24-hour periods), which, environmental benefits wise, is negligible according to air quality modelling. Meanwhile, over 3.23% of car users switched to mass transit during Orange-level alerts, with a higher degree (by 19%~39%) of exposure to PM2.5. Our findings highlight the importance of exposure-centric decision making during HPEs.
... Although the Covid-19 lockdown led to a reduction in emissions, the effect was of short duration, and the pollution patterns returned rapidly to the pre-pandemic levels. Proper handling of the air pollution problems in Mexico City should involve tight controls (Goddard, 1997), such as more extract norms for vehicle mobility (Davis, 2008), reduction of fossil fuel utilization and a huge increase in the number and efficiency of the public transport system. In this line, Bel and Holst (2018) found statistical evidence that Mexico City's bus rapid transport (BRT) network leads to reducing emissions of CO, NOX, and PM10. ...
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In the recent two decades, the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has been plagued by high concentrations of air pollutants, risking the health integrity of its inhabitants. Although some policies have been undertaken, they have been insufficient to deplete high air pollutants. Environmental contingencies are commonly imposed when the ozone concentration overpasses a certain threshold, which is well above the recommended maximum by the WHO. This work used a causal version of a generalized Morlet wavelet to characterize the dynamics of daily ozone concentration in the MCMA. The results indicated that the formation of dangerous ozone concentration levels is a consequence of accumulation and incomplete dissipation effects acting over a wide range of time scales. Ozone contingencies occurred when the wavelet coefficient power is increasing, which was linked to an inti-persistence behavior. It was proposed that the wavelet methodology could be used as a further tool for signaling the potential formation of adverse ozone pollution scenarios.
... We use a local linear regression discontinuity design similar in principle to several recent studies (e.g., Davis, 2008;Auffhammer and Kellogg, 2011;Chen and Whalley, 2012;Anderson, 2014;Bento et al., 2014) by modeling the dependent variable as a function of the policy and a flexible function of time. The flexible function of time is crucial for identification, as it controls for potential endogeneity from time as the running variable (Imbens and Lemieux, 2008). ...
... The difference-indifference technique cannot be applied in the case of distinctive cities such as Lanzhou. Just as Mexico City is a very special city in Mexico (26), Lanzhou is also a very unusual city in China. It is impossible to find a city in China that mirrors or resembles Lanzhou because of its unique location, terrain, industries, and other factors. ...
Article
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Introduction This study investigates the effectiveness of government environmental audits in mitigating air pollution. Specifically, it focuses on a pilot project conducted in Lanzhou City by the former Ministry of Environmental Protection. The research employs a regression discontinuity design to empirically assess the impact of these audits on air quality. Methods The study utilizes a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the impact of the government environmental audits. The primary outcome variable is the Air Quality Index (AQI). The analysis includes extensive robustness checks, such as sensitivity testing for optimal bandwidths of key pollutants, adjusting for precipitation levels, and conducting various robustness tests to ensure the reliability of the results. Results The findings reveal a significant decline in the AQI following the implementation of the environmental audits. The AQI decreased from 31 to 25 during and after the audit period. Additionally, the study observed a notable increase in precipitation levels, suggesting potential environmental improvements. Robustness tests further confirm the reliability of the regression results. Discussion The research outcomes demonstrate the effectiveness of government environmental audits in reducing air pollution. By supervising local governments in the implementation of environmental protection policies, these audits contribute to improved air quality. The findings highlight the importance of targeted interventions and policy enforcement in addressing environmental challenges.
... Instead of relying on price effects to control both gasoline use and emissions, direct government intervention to cut emissions can have unexpected outcomes: for example, vehicle emissions did not fall after the adoption of vehicle driving bans in Mexico City [43]. Finally, justice theory sheds light on consumer preferences for larger cars thereby increasing fuel use. ...
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The car market in Mexico has undergone substantial change over the last twenty years, as sales have increased dramatically and as policy measures have been introduced to improve fuel economy so that decarbonization targets can be achieved. The argument presented in this paper is that overall fuel economy is driven by vehicle sales and the fuel economy standards imposed. In addition, this picture is complicated by the purchasing preferences of buyers, and this might reduce the effectiveness of the policy measures introduced. A case study approach allows analysis of the shifts in transport policy (2003–2020) to be undertaken by linking the fuel consumption of cars (L/100 km) to the purchasing patterns of consumers, and from this estimate the levels of CO2 emissions. From the empirical analysis, it is found that, although there have been fuel economy gains every year, this is countered by (a) increasing sales of SUVs, and (b) a car market that is increasingly being dominated by larger cars. The current fuel standards are not sufficient to control the continued growth in fuel consumption, and levels of carbon emissions are continuing to increase. In conclusion, tighter emissions standards are needed, together with stronger governance structures and a range of further policy measures to improve car efficiencies and limit growth of the use of larger vehicles.
... Other works also explore the role of urban traffic restrictions and their relationship with pollution levels. Using data on air pollution for Mexico, Davis (2008) measures the effect of variation in driving rules on the air quality of Mexico City before and after the driving restriction program, Hoy No Circula (HNC), implemented in 1989. Through a Regression Discontinuity Design, the author finds no evidence that driving restrictions effectively improved air quality. ...
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In this paper, we analyze two quasi-experiments to assess how urban traffic restrictions and social distancing norms affect pollution levels in the municipality São Paulo, one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world. First, using hourly air pollution levels measured in thirty-three monitoring stations in the state of São Paulo, we exploit exogenous variation in quarantine rules following the COVID-19 outbreak to estimate how social distancing norms affected pollution levels across different municipalities. We find an average decrease of 22.4% in air pollution after the first days of the capital's quarantine announcement, with heterogeneous effects across pollutants, driven by decreases in the vehicle fleet and urban mobility. Second, we compare this effect with another quasi-experiment that explores exogenous suspensions of traffic restriction rules between 2000-2018 in the municipality of São Paulo. We also document increases in pollution levels when more cars are allowed in the streets, with an average increase of 16.7% in air pollution. Finally, we use our estimates to show that a reduction of 4.7 times the estimated ATT in the quarantine period is necessary to reach the capital's long-term air quality goals.
... However, this point is often omitted in many policy designs and practices at this stage. Davis (2008) pointed out in the study of motor vehicle restriction that the travel demand of citizens after the restriction has not shifted to low-emission transportation modes, such as subways, buses, and light rails. It was noted by Jiao et al. (2021) that in order to foster green and low-carbon development in urban transportation, it is necessary to guide residents to travel in ways that minimize their impact on the environment. ...
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Total factor productivity in the green economy is a major step forward in fostering robust growth in the economy. Urban green total factor productivity (GTFP) may be increased and carbon emissions decreased through the low-carbon transformation of the transportation sector. To analyze how the pilot policy of low-carbon transportation system construction affects urban GTFP, this study builds a DID model and a spatial Durbin model using panel data from 282 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2021. The findings show that low-carbon transportation systems boost urban GTFP. In addition, the mechanism test shows that low-carbon transportation development increases urban GTFP by optimizing urban industrial structure, expediting economic agglomeration, and encouraging technological innovation. Lastly, the geographical correlation test shows that GTFP is geographically associated and that spatial spillover reduces the impact of low-carbon transportation growth on GTFP. The findings affirm the need to vigorously promote low-carbon transportation systems to aid in the achievement of the carbon neutrality target.
... R T it it * is an interaction term. To capture the non-linearity of housing price trend, we add the quadratic and cubic forms of the running variables and the interaction terms, suggested by the existing literature (Davis, 2008;Imbens & Lemieux, 2008). X i captures property attributes, such as building age, number of rooms, interior decoration level, 1 and so forth. ...
... To determine how motor vehicle limits policies affect air quality, numerous studies have been carried out (Huang et al., 2017;Xie et al., 2017;Zhang et al., 2017;Chen et al., 2020;Chen et al., 2021;Alvarez and Smith 2021;Rodriguez-Rey et al., 2022). Most of these studies evaluated the effectiveness of restriction measures by comparing and analyzing the concentration of air pollutants before and after the restriction based on roadside observation (Titos et al., 2015), regression modeling (Davis 2008;Chen et al., 2020;Li et al., 2021;Yi et al., 2021), and air quality model Feng et al., 2021). For example, Troncoso et al. (2012) developed a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of motor vehicle restrictions on air quality in Santiago, Chile by using the observations of air pollutants and meteorological variables such as temperature and wind speed. ...
Article
One of the significant sources of urban air particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) has been found to be vehicle exhaust emission. Vehicle restriction measures have been taken to alleviate particulate matter pollution in the world. Here, we quantified the impact of vehicle restriction measures on the PM2.5 concentrations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in Kaifeng, China. This study set up three different scenarios to simulate the spatiotemporal changes of PM2.5 concentrations in four seasons in 2020. They were no emission reduction (S0), the restriction of two tailing license plate numbers (S1), and the restriction of odd–even tailing numbers of license plates (S2), respectively. In general, the odd–even license plate restriction policy has proven to be more effective than restricting two specific license plate numbers. In scenario S1, the range of PM2.5 concentrations reduction in Kaifeng City was between 0.2% and 1.28%. In scenario S2, the range of PM2.5 concentrations reduction was between 0.98% and 14.42%. The results showed that the effectiveness of vehicle restriction measures varies from season to season, and the effect in summer and winter is better than that in spring and autumn. We suggest that it may be difficult to reduce the PM2.5 concentrations to a great extent if simply reducing the traffic exhaust emissions through motor vehicle restrictions, on the contrary, would lead to the increase of O3 concentration, bringing some other effects. This study can serve as a foundation for the rational development of motor vehicle control strategies and help advance the ongoing improvement of air quality.
... • In the review by Burns et al. (2020), Davis (2008) observed a significant increase in NOx and NO2 concentrations after even-odd license plate restrictions, which was likely due to the confounding of meteorological factors during the evaluation period. ...
... However, the NDD increased the vehicle fleet, since many car owners purchased another vehicle, which most of the times were older and with different technology than the first car. Previous studies suggest that this behavioral response might have diminished the efficacy of the NDD program to improve air quality [8][9][10]. In Mexico, the NDD classifies vehicles based on model year and technology and assigns a tag according to the plate ending number. ...
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This study addresses the pressing issue of urban air pollution impact, emphasizing the need for emissions control to ensure environmental equity. Focused on the Toluca Valley Metropolitan Area (TVMA), this research employs air quality modeling to examine ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and carbon monoxide concentrations during three different periods in 2019. It quantitatively assesses the performance of a state-of-the-art air quality model while evaluating the efficacy of a No-Driving day mitigation measure program, similar to the one which is currently implemented in Mexico City. Using an updated national emissions inventory for 2016, this study highlights the model capability of representing ozone formation and shows that reducing mobile emissions of key pollutants contributes to lowering downwind surface ozone levels, albeit with a minimal local impact. The insights and tools from this work hold potential value for decision-making in the broader Megalopolis context, aligning with global efforts to comprehend and mitigate urban air pollution impacts.
... However, our study shows that public participation in role-playing exercises could help policymakers design more effective and fair plans of action. Often, urban environmental management plans fail when they connect regulations to the attitudes and behaviors they are attempting to guide (Davis, 2008;McKenzie-Mohr, 2011;Espluga et al., 2016). These games allow for collective reflection on how to prioritize, what to invest resources in, and what strategies are the best to protect the most vulnerable populations. ...
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The design of air pollution control policies is a complex decision-making process. Public participation can enhance the legitimacy and effectiveness of environmental urban regulations but does not always occur naturally. This article presents the experience of the use of role-playing in six mid-sized cities in southern Chile to evaluate how residents affected by high concentrations of fine particulate matter perceive the problem and debate possible solutions. For this, the participants were asked to assume the role of advisors. On that premise, they had to prioritize between a series of mitigation measures and reach a consensus with other advisors. The results show the potential of role-playing games, on the one hand, to promote critical thinking and argument skills among the general public and, on the other, to help policymakers in the design of more operative and fair plans of action.
... However, lockdowns' impact on crime can vary throughout time and the 15 For a discussion of when the running variable is time, see Lee and Lemieux (2010) and Hausman and Rapson (2018). For other studies using time as running variable, see Davis (2008), Anderson (2014), and Doleac and Sanders (2015). 16 The honest inference approach by Koles� ar and Rothe (2018); Armstrong and Koles� ar (2020) bounds the second derivative of the true f function around the date of the imposition of the lockdown (i.e., for dates before and after) for a nonparametric regression function: crime it ¼ f ðdate it Þþu it . ...
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This article studies the dynamic impact of a temporary policy restricting social encounters due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on criminal activity in Bihar, India. Using a regression discontinuity design in time and criminal case—level and arrest data, I document an immediate drop in crime of over 35% due to the lockdown. Analysis over a longer timespan shows asymmetric dynamics by crime type. The lockdown was more effective in preventing personal crimes such as murders but was less effective in preventing property crimes, which increased beyond pre-lockdown levels once the lockdown was lifted. The increase in property crimes seems to be driven by temporal crime displacement from “former offenders” and not by “new offenders.” These asymmetric dynamics across crime types provide new insights into criminals’ intertemporal decisions (JEL K14, K42).
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Ž. THE REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY RD data design is a quasi-experimental design with the defining characteristic that the probability of receiving treatment changes discontinuously as a function of one or more underlying variables. This data design arises frequently in economic and other applications but is only infrequently exploited as a source of identifying information in evaluating effects of a treatment. In the first application and discussion of the RD method, Thistlethwaite and Campbell Ž. 1960 study the effect of student scholarships on career aspirations, using the fact that awards are only made if a test score exceeds a threshold. More recently, Van der Klaauw Ž. 1997 estimates the effect of financial aid offers on students’ decisions to attend a particular college, taking into account administrative rules that set the aid amount partly on the basis of a discontinuous function of the students’ grade point average and SAT Ž. score. Angrist and Lavy 1999 estimate the effect of class size on student test scores, taking advantage of a rule stipulating that another classroom be added when the average Ž. class size exceeds a threshold level. Finally, Black 1999 uses an RD approach to estimate parents’ willingness to pay for higher quality schools by comparing housing prices near geographic school attendance boundaries. Regression discontinuity methods have potentially broad applicability in economic research, because geographic boundaries or rules governing programs often create discontinuities in the treatment assignment mechanism that can be exploited under the method. Although there have been several discussions and applications of RD methods in the literature, important questions still remain concerning sources of identification and ways of estimating treatment effects under minimal parametric restrictions. Here, we show that identifying conditions invoked in previous applications of RD methods are often overly strong and that treatment effects can be nonparametrically identified under an RD design by a weak functional form restriction. The restriction is unusual in that it requires imposing continuity assumptions in order to take advantage of the known discontinuity in the treatment assignment mechanism. We also propose a way of nonparametrically estimating treatment effects and offer an interpretation of the Wald estimator as an RD estimator.
Iatrogenic Specification Error: Cleaning Data Can Exacerbate Measurement Error Bias
  • Bollinger
  • Christopher
  • Chandra
Bollinger, Christopher, and Amitabh Chandra. 2005. “Iatrogenic Specification Error: Cleaning Data Can Exacerbate Measurement Error Bias.” J. Labor Econ. 23 (2): 235–57
Congestion Theory and Transport Investment
———. 1969. " Congestion Theory and Transport Investment. " A.E.R. Papers and Proc. 59 (2): 251–60.
Does Air Quality Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market
———. 2005. " Does Air Quality Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market. " J.P.E. 113 (2): 376–424.
Secretaría del Medio Ambiente Actualización del programa Hoy No Circula
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  • Distrito Federal
Gobierno del Distrito Federal. Secretaría del Medio Ambiente. 2004a. Actualización del programa Hoy No Circula. Mexico City: Secretaría del Medio Ambiente.
Environmental Protection Agency) Latest Findings on National Air Quality: 2002 Status and Trends
EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). 2003. " Latest Findings on National Air Quality: 2002 Status and Trends. " EPA 454/K-03-001. Washington, DC: U.S. EPA.