Prediction of immunisation performance

Global Institute of Public Health, New York University, NY, USA.
The Lancet (Impact Factor: 45.22). 02/2013; 381(9864):349-50. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)62165-5
Source: PubMed
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    • "A recent systematic review identifies problems related to the immunization systems, communication and information, family characteristics and parental attitudes and knowledge (13). In cross-national studies, inferior immunization outcomes have been associated with several development indicators, such as low female literacy and poor governance (14). Although vaccinations are given, there may be substantial delays in providing them compared to the recommended age of vaccination. "
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    ABSTRACT: Background and objectiveThe Expanded Programme on Immunization was introduced by the World Health Organization (WHO) in all countries during the 1970s. Currently, this effective public health intervention is still not accessible to all. This study evaluates the change in routine vaccination coverage over time based on survey data and compares it to estimations by the WHO and United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF). DesignData of vaccination coverage of children less than 5 years of age was extracted from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in 71 low- and middle-income countries during 1986–2009. Overall trends for vaccination coverage of tuberculosis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio and measles were analysed and compared to WHO and UNICEF estimates.ResultsFrom 1986 to 2009, the annual average increase in vaccination coverage of the studied diseases ranged between 1.53 and 1.96% units according to DHS data. Vaccination coverage of diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio and measles was all under 80% in 2009. Non-significant differences in coverage were found between DHS data and WHO and UNICEF estimates.ConclusionsThe coverage of routine vaccinations in low- and middle-income countries may be lower than that previously reported. Hence, it is important to maintain and increase current vaccination levels.
    Full-text · Article · Apr 2013 · Global Health Action
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    ABSTRACT: There is limited understanding of why routine immunization (RI) coverage improves in some settings in Africa and not in others. Using a grounded theory approach, we conducted in-depth case studies to understand pathways to coverage improvement by comparing immunization programme experience in 12 districts in three countries (Ethiopia, Cameroon and Ghana). Drawing on positive deviance or assets model techniques we compared the experience of districts where diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3)/pentavalent3 (Penta3) coverage improved with districts where DTP3/Penta3 coverage remained unchanged (or steady) over the same period, focusing on basic readiness to deliver immunization services and drivers of coverage improvement. The results informed a model for immunization coverage improvement that emphasizes the dynamics of immunization systems at district level. In all districts, whether improving or steady, we found that a set of basic RI system resources were in place from 2006 to 2010 and did not observe major differences in infrastructure. We found that the differences in coverage trends were due to factors other than basic RI system capacity or service readiness. We identified six common drivers of RI coverage performance improvement-four direct drivers and two enabling drivers-that were present in well-performing districts and weaker or absent in steady coverage districts, and map the pathways from driver to improved supply, demand and coverage. Findings emphasize the critical role of implementation strategies and the need for locally skilled managers that are capable of tailoring strategies to specific settings and community needs. The case studies are unique in their focus on the positive drivers of change and the identification of pathways to coverage improvement, an approach that should be considered in future studies and routine assessments of district-level immunization system performance.
    Full-text · Article · Mar 2014 · Health Policy and Planning
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    ABSTRACT: Background: Timely vaccination, i.e., the receipt of all scheduled vaccinations in an age-appropriate fashion, is critical for the prevention of deadly diseases in infants and achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goal to reduce infant mortality. Infants, especially in rural or underprivileged settings often receive delayed vaccinations leaving them susceptible to vaccine-preventable illnesses early in the first year of life. In this study, we examined rates of timely vaccination among 24,435 infants born in Gaibandha and Rangpur rural districts of Bangladesh from 2001 to 2007. Methods: Vaccinations due by 14 weeks of age and administered through routine government immunization services were assessed using interviews with enrolled mothers between 11 and 18 weeks postpartum. We created a Timely Vaccination (TV) score to classify infants as vaccinated fully and on schedule (TV=1) or not (TV=0), and used multivariable logistic regression to identify maternal characteristics associated with infant's timely vaccination status. Results: Our results suggest that only 19% of infants in this cohort received scheduled vaccinations on time by 11-18 weeks postpartum. Mothers' engagement in paid employment [OR=1.13, 95% CI: 1.03-1.23], receipt of tetanus toxoid vaccination [OR=1.24, 95% CI: 1.11-1.38], history of antenatal care [OR=1.22, 95% CI: 1.12-1.32], or higher socioeconomic status [OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.03-1.11] were positively associated with timely vaccination of their infants. Mother's perception of small infant size at birth was negatively associated with timely vaccination [OR=0.89, 95% CI: 0.82-0.97]. Conclusion: Timely vaccination coverage of infants in rural Gaibandha and Rangpur districts is extremely low. This analysis identifies important shortcomings associated with the 1-year vaccination benchmark of routine immunization performance and suggests the need for specific interventions based on potential maternal determinants as well as known system and programmatic barriers of timely vaccination among infants in rural Bangladesh.
    No preview · Article · Aug 2014 · Vaccine