America's Forgotten Pandemic, The Influenza of 1918
... For this particular strain of flu, death was the result of the body's immunological reaction to the virus, making those with the strongest immune systems most susceptible. The United States Census Bureau reported from a sample of 272,500 male influenza deaths in 1918, that nearly 49% were between the ages 20 to 39, whereas only 18% were under 5 years of age and 13% were over 50 years of age (Crosby, 2003). ...
... Conversely, Alfred Crosby (2003) advances the idea that no such sense could be made even in relation to the flu's geographic trajectory, stating, "The factors at work in the pandemic were so numerous and the ways in which they canceled or gained power from one another are so obscure that very few generalities can be drawn" (p. 64). ...
... 64). The disease moved too quickly to be understood in such a manner and behaved in more of a 'hit-and-run' fashion than the slow, siege-like progression of other epidemics (Crosby, 2003). Additionally, closing orders attempted in large cities did little to limit the spread of influenza and death "They thought that they had controlled it, that they had stopped it. ...
... Accordingly, it is inappropriate to refer to this flu as a "Spanish cold." Therefore, following Hayami [2], this study refers to it as the Spanish influenza or simply the Spanish flu. 1 The first documented case of Spanish flu is believed to have occurred in March 1918 at a military camp in Kansas, the United States [3]. However, the full-scale epidemic began in the spring and summer of the same year, spreading among soldiers on the Western Front in France [4]. ...
... As in Sugiura's [4] study, the data used here show the monthly number of prefecture-wise deaths due to the epidemic cold from 1918 to 1920, as stated in the JIDCS. 3 The term "epidemic cold" is used interchangeably with the flu in Japan. However, the number of deaths from the epidemic cold in the JIDCS is approximately 220,000 for those 3 years, a number that is significantly lower than the 385,000 deaths shown in "Ryukosei kanbo" ("Epidemic cold") mentioned above. ...
... Okada[6] referred to the Spanish flu, quoting Hayami[2].3 OnlyTable 12.1, described later, additionally uses data on the number of deaths in 1917 and 1921 (Bureau of Cabinet Statistics[11]; Bureau of Statistics[8][9][10]12]). ...
... Accordingly, it is inappropriate to refer to this flu as a "Spanish cold." Therefore, following Hayami [2], this study refers to it as the Spanish influenza or simply the Spanish flu. 1 The first documented case of Spanish flu is believed to have occurred in March 1918 at a military camp in Kansas, the United States [3]. However, the full-scale epidemic began in the spring and summer of the same year, spreading among soldiers on the Western Front in France [4]. ...
... As in Sugiura's [4] study, the data used here show the monthly number of prefecture-wise deaths due to the epidemic cold from 1918 to 1920, as stated in the JIDCS. 3 The term "epidemic cold" is used interchangeably with the flu in Japan. However, the number of deaths from the epidemic cold in the JIDCS is approximately 220,000 for those 3 years, a number that is significantly lower than the 385,000 deaths shown in "Ryukosei kanbo" ("Epidemic cold") mentioned above. ...
... Okada[6] referred to the Spanish flu, quoting Hayami[2].3 OnlyTable 12.1, described later, additionally uses data on the number of deaths in 1917 and 1921 (Bureau of Cabinet Statistics[11]; Bureau of Statistics[8][9][10]12]). ...
This chapter examines the diffusion process of deaths due to the Spanish influenza pandemic using mortality statistics from Japan. For this purpose, the study constructs four modified models, based on the Gompertz and logistic curves, that incorporate an initial effect and a winter effect. These models are then applied to the second wave of the Spanish influenza. In applying them, Japanese prefectures are classified into five types; the average monthly mortality rates are calculated for each type, and the calculated cumulative mortality rates are used as the models’ variables. The results of the model analysis can be summarized as follows: First, the winter effect appears to be stronger than the initial effect. Second, the Gompertz curve-based model tends to better fit region types with relatively high population density, while the logistic curve-based model tends to better fit the opposite types. Third, region types following the Gompertz curve typically have higher final cumulative mortality rates than those following the logistic curve. Since the high influenza mortality rate among the elderly is a significant issue in contemporary Japan, these results can be expected to contribute to improving that mortality rate and advancing gerontology.
... We found epidemiologic patterns among residents during this pandemic that were consistent with international literature, such as a w-shaped age distribution for deaths ( Figure 1) (8,14,15). Mortality rates were high among Indigenous Māori civilian and military populations compared with the European-origin population (8,16), and risk for death was higher among New Cumulative mortality rate (deaths/1,000 population) in New Zealand (Aotearoa) during the 1918-19 influenza pandemic (for European-origin persons) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (all origins), by age and sex. The 1918-19 pandemic mortality data cover the entire period of the pandemic in NZ and are reproduced from Summers (10) and derived/approximated from publicly available sources (8; https://www3.stats.govt.nz/New_Zealand_Official_Yearbooks/1924/NZOYB_1924.html). ...
... Zealand military personnel who had a preexisting chronic disease or were recent military recruits (8,(15)(16)(17). Unique findings focused on the novel risk factors for death, such as larger chest size in men (possibly an indicator of a different immune system response in men with larger bodies) (17) and lack of difference between mortality rates in men and women in the Māori population. ...
... Those health inequities persist today (16). Although the New Zealand government has acknowledged failings in the COVID-19 pandemic response and provided some targeted support to Māori providers (and other services such as those for Pacific and disabled persons), cases, hospitalizations, and death rates for COVID-19 have been disproportionally higher among those groups (3). ...
Exploring the results of the COVID-19 response in New Zealand (Aotearoa) is warranted so that insights can inform future pandemic planning. We compared the COVID-19 response in New Zealand to that for the more severe 1918–19 influenza pandemic. Both pandemics were caused by respiratory viruses, but the 1918–19 pandemic was short, intense, and yielded a higher mortality rate. The government and societal responses to COVID-19 were vastly superior; responses had a clear strategic direction and included a highly effective elimination strategy, border restrictions, minimal community spread for 20 months, successful vaccination rollout, and strong central government support. Both pandemics involved a whole-of-government response, community mobilization, and use of public health and social measures. Nevertheless, lessons from 1918–19 on the necessity of action to prevent inequities among different social groups were not fully learned, as demonstrated by the COVID-19 response and its ongoing unequal health outcomes in New Zealand.
... The figures of deaths presented with an aura of realism and veracity (with no information provided in either case on how the figures were calculated), the personification of care for the sick in the female figure of the nurse, and the use of scientific images of the virus to construct an "enemy to be defeated" narrative are some of the visual patterns equally evident in the corpus of images associated with the coronavirus (Oliva, Pintor & Salvadó 2023, 167). It is thus clear that over the course of 2020, the Spanish flu pandemic was quite naturally rescued from its many years of oblivion (Crosby 1990) to establish a continuity between the two pandemics in terms of the representing illness. ...
... Desde las cifras de muertos presentadas bajo el halo de realismo y veracidad (sin conocer en ningún caso los mecanismos de contaje), pasando por la personificación del cuidado del enfermo en la figura femenina de la enfermera, hasta el uso de las imágenes científicas del virus para la construcción del "enemigo a abatir" son algunos de los patrones iconográficos que nos legó el corpus de imágenes asociado al coronavirus (Oliva, Pintor & Salvadó 2023, 167). No es casual, pues, que de forma natural a lo largo de 2020 saliera de su olvido la pandemia de gripe española (Crosby 1990), estableciendo una continuidad entre una y la otra en lo que a la representación de la enfermedad concierne. ...
... Before discussing them, it should also be noted that for the public health systems of the time, experiencing very large numbers of infected people requiring assistance became an impossible logistical problem. Hospitals, often understaffed to begin with because of the war effort, could not host everybody and emergency structures had to be found in order to provide at least some basic care: which, in the absence of effective drugs, consisted in what American nurses ironically labeled "TLC cure" (tender loving care); nurses themselves, as well as the rest of the medical personnel, were among the main victims of the Spanish flu (Crosby 2003). The collapse of the public health system which occurred during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic led to increases in case fatality rates, especially in cities. ...
... Notwithstanding its scale and its historical significance, until recently the Spanish flu had been relatively neglected by scholars, mirroring a general tendency toward forgetfulness in the general populationwhich is why a well-known account labeled it "America's forgotten pandemic" (Crosby 2003). 9 This is also true for economic historians, who had rarely worked on the consequences of the Spanish flu before 2020, when COVID-19 made it a hot and urgent topic and triggered a wave of new research which is still ongoing. ...
... Before discussing them, it should also be noted that for the public health systems of the time, experiencing very large numbers of infected people requiring assistance became an impossible logistical problem. Hospitals, often understaffed to begin with because of the war effort, could not host everybody and emergency structures had to be found in order to provide at least some basic care: which, in the absence of effective drugs, consisted in what American nurses ironically labelled "TLC cure" (Tender Loving Care); nurses themselves, as well as the rest of the medical personnel, were among the main victims of the Spanish Flu (Crosby 2003). The collapse of the public health system which occurred during the 1918-19 ...
... Notwithstanding its scale and its historical significance, until recently the Spanish Flu had been relatively neglected by scholars, mirroring a general tendency towards forgetfulness in the general populationwhich is why a well-known account labelled it "America's forgotten pandemic" (Crosby 2003). 9 This is also true for economic historians, who had rarely worked on the consequences of the Spanish Flu before 2020, when Covid-19 made it a hot and urgent topic and triggered a wave of new research which is still ongoing. ...
This chapter provides an overview of current knowledge about the economic consequences of major epidemics and pandemics in the long run of history, from the Justinianic Plague of the 540s to the Spanish flu of 1918–1919. For the preindustrial period, the analysis concentrates on plagues (and particularly on the Black Death pandemic of the fourteenth century and on the last great
European plagues of the seventeenth century), which stand out in the comparison with other epidemics both because of their outsized economic and demographic effects, and for having concentrated the attention of economic historians and other social scientists. For the industrial period, cholera is taken as the main pandemic threat of the nineteenth century. The chapter concludes analyzing the Spanish flu, which made the world aware of the danger posed by the influenza viruses – and which is arguably the best term of comparison with the recent COVID-19 pandemic, due to some epidemiological similarities. The chapter illustrates the short-, medium-, and long-run consequences of the various epidemics and pandemics discussed, and also highlights the importance of the historical context in mediating the impact of any epidemic, against tendencies to generalize from some well-known, but possibly exceptional, cases such as the Black Death. This and other findings teach us some useful lessons for understanding better recent pandemics, like COVID-19, and might help to build preparedness against future threats of a similar kind.
... Every round of influenza, both prior to and post-1918, follows a general U-shaped death curve, in terms of age. Those who are most severely impacted tend to be the very young and the elderly, with young to middle aged adults having higher survival rates (Crosby, 1989;Morens & Fauci, 2007;Taubenberger et al., 2019). However, the 1918 influenza did not follow this pattern, instead killing those in their 20 and 30 s at higher rates than teens or those 40 and older (Crosby, 1989;Morens & Fauci, 2007;Taubenberger et al., 2019;Yang et al., 2013). ...
... Those who are most severely impacted tend to be the very young and the elderly, with young to middle aged adults having higher survival rates (Crosby, 1989;Morens & Fauci, 2007;Taubenberger et al., 2019). However, the 1918 influenza did not follow this pattern, instead killing those in their 20 and 30 s at higher rates than teens or those 40 and older (Crosby, 1989;Morens & Fauci, 2007;Taubenberger et al., 2019;Yang et al., 2013). Differences in the average ages of reported deaths in The Budget pre-and post-1918 reveal higher rates of reported infant deaths along with exceptionally high rates of reported deaths among people between the ages of 21-35. ...
Estimating the lethal impact of a pandemic on a religious community with significant barriers to outsiders can be exceedingly difficult. Nevertheless, Stein and colleagues (2021) developed an innovative means of arriving at such an estimate for the lethal impact of COVID-19 on the Amish community in 2020 by counting user-generated death reports in the widely circulated Amish periodical The Budget. By comparing monthly averages of reported deaths before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, Stein and colleagues were able to arrive at a rough estimate of “excess deaths” during the first year of the pandemic. Our research extends the same research method, applying it to the years during and immediately preceding the global influenza pandemic of 1918. Results show similarly robust findings, including three notable “waves” of excess deaths among Amish and conservative Mennonites in the USA in 1918, 1919, and 1920. Such results point to the promise of utilizing religious periodicals like The Budget as a relatively untapped trove of user-generated data on public health outcomes among religious minorities more than a century in the past.
... [3], o epidemie "afectează mai multe persoane în acelaşi timp şi se răspândeşte de la o persoană la alta, într-o localitate în care boala nu este permanent răspândită", iar pandemia, prin comparaţie, este "răspândită pe toată suprafaţa unei ţări, unui continent sau a lumii". O observaţie foarte interesantă vine de la Crosby [4], anume că, în mod paradoxal, oamenii sunt insuficient pregătiţi din punct de vedere genetic pentru mediul pe care omenirea însăşi l-a creat, de vreo zece milenii încoace. Molimele au fost transformate ocazional în arme biologice, încă de la invaziile mongole în Europa secolului XIV. ...
... Prima pandemie a epocii moderne este cunoscută sub denumirea de Gripă Spaniolă, dar a apărut în Kansas şi a fost adusă în Europa de soldaţii americani, suprapunându-se celui de-al Doilea Război Mondial (1918)(1919)(1920). Crosby [4] o numeşte "gripa uitată", deoarece, din cauza fie a scurtei durate, fie a războiului, a ieşit rapid din atenţia publicului, deşi s-a soldat cu 40 de milioane de victime, în special adulţi tineri. Presa scrisă era singurul mijloc de informare universal accesibil şi, dat fiind neutralitatea Spaniei în război, ziarele din peninsulă au avut libertatea de a publica fără cenzură informaţiile şi cifrele care arătau evoluţia pandemiei [29, p. 55]. ...
The present paper aims to chronologically and comparatively present the evolution of human behavior, from the first recorded pandemics to the Covid-19 pandemic. We are interested in the attribution of these infectious disease’s origin, as well as in the literary and artistic manifestations that represented these disasters. While in the Antiquity the pagan philosopher Porphyry of Tire lamented the rise of Christianity, blaming it for the appearance of the plague, in Middle Ages Europe, Christians looked for scapegoats among the religious minorities. Epidemics and pandemics also proved to be an irresistible subject for many writers; in visual arts, the Great Plague of the Middle Ages inspired the iconographic theme Danse Macabre. Today, movies deal with this topic from an apocalyptic perspective, thus marking a return to the ancient conceptions of plagues. We also find that, from the Middle Ages to the present day, the popular reactions are broadly the same, including negationism, misinformation and mistrust of authorities. Apart from questionable cures, the tendency to reject sanitary measures has also been survived, especially since social media currently provide a huge amount of right and of false information, hard to classify.
... These associations recognized a need for greater transparency and public involvement, and they began to influence policy more directly, engaging with governments and non-governmental organizations to promote science-driven policy decisions and public health campaigns. These efforts were apparent in the activities of the American Medical Association and American Public Health Association during the 1918-1919 Spanish flu epidemic.18 ...
Scientific associations exist to serve their members and advance their science. They also provide a platform for scientists to communicate their science and engage with the public, such as hosting free resources on their web pages and organizing outreach activities with local communities. Historically, scientific associations were often internally focused. Despite the common stereotype of exclusive clubs of gentleman naturalists, there are numerous examples since the 17th century of scientific associations encouraging public engagement. This became increasingly common, and throughout the last several decades, scientific associations like the American Association for Anatomy (AAA) have been working to make changes in how science, scientists, and the public work together to produce the best scientific outcomes. This viewpoint defines different levels of relationships between the scientist and the public and how they affect outcomes related to the public's trust in science and scientists. It then provides a historical perspective on how associations have contributed to the communication of science. Lastly, it discusses the role of associations in science communication and public engagement and whether it is important for associations and why. It concludes with examples of the strategic programs of AAA that demonstrate how scientific associations can support public engagement, resulting in benefits to the public, scientists, and the anatomical sciences.
... Novel viruses of unidentified origins have persistently emerged since the onset of the twentieth century. Historical pandemics shows the devastating impact of new viruses like 1918 Spanish flu caused by Influenza A (H1N1) [1], Asiatic flu pandemic [2], the 1968 Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) [3], and HIV/AIDS epidemic in 1981. More recent outbreaks such as the 2002 SARS epidemic [4], the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic [4], the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak and the recent COVID-19 pandemic driven by SARS-CoV-2 [5] highlights the continuous difficulties of prompt identification and control of these infections (Fig. 1). ...
Emerging and re-emerging viruses (like Spanish flu, SARS-CoV-2, etc.) have substantially impacted global public health since the early twentieth century. These outbreaks are unpredictable and novel viruses are difficult to understand due to emerging variations. Advanced virology and diagnostic technologies have revolutionized viral diagnostics, enabling accurate early identification and successful treatment and containment. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, such as metagenomics and whole-genome sequencing, have played a crucial role in the detection and monitoring of emerging viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2 and its variants. Advanced diagnostic methods, such as digital PCR, CRISPR-based tools, and serological techniques like ELISA, enhance viral detection’s sensitivity, specificity, and speed. Research has shown that innovations such as lateral flow immunoassays, biosensors, and aptamers have the potential to significantly enhance diagnostic accuracy in various fields. The integration of AI in diagnostics aids researchers in understanding viral evolution and outbreak management, offering new avenues for rapid response. This review aims to examine the latest advancements in virus diagnosis technologies, identify unresolved accuracy and detection issues, and discuss emerging ideas that are transforming the future of viral diagnostics. It is important to improve early identification, rendering the system more cost-effective and adaptable to new viral threats.
... Human behaviours are closely linked to the spread of infectious diseases [3]. When the epidemic occurs, humans may change behaviours, such as staying away from infected individuals [4,5], wearing protective masks [6], and maintaining social distance [7] to reduce the risk of infection due to fear. ...
In this paper, we establish a compartmental model in which the transmission rate is associated with the fear of being infected by COVID-19. We provide a detailed analysis of the epidemic model and established results for the existence of a positively invariant set. The expression of the basic reproduction number is characterized. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is globally asymptotically stable if , and the system exhibits a forward bifurcation if . When , the system is uniformly persistent, the DFE is unstable and there exists a unique and globally asymptotic stable endemic equilibrium (EE). We fit unknown parameters using the reported data in Canada from September 1 to October 10, 2021, and carry out sensitivity analysis. The quantitative analysis of the model with awareness demonstrates the significance of reducing the transmission rate and enhancing public protective awareness.
... The devastating H1N1 flu pandemic of 1918/19 started in Kansas and then spread globally. Even though there were no known antiviral treatments, it showed the value of nurses in healthcare (Crosby, 2003). The virus most likely arose from domestic and wild birds in North America, rather than from a pig virus adapting to humans (Hoag, 2014), but given that respiratory illness outbreaks in US swine occurred concurrently with human infections, the 1918 virus might have originated more directly in pigs. ...
The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in much pain, loss of life, and social disruption. However, this is only the most recent epidemic. There have been several serious disease outbreaks and pandemics throughout history, including the Black Death, Spanish flu and SARS which brought devastating effects globally. This article places the COVID-19 pandemic into the wider context of previous pandemics. The study's major objective is to compare the mortality rates, as well as the socioeconomic and demographic implications of the most recent pandemic, to prior pandemics. This provides the context that allows us to estimate future risks from pandemics. The research found that the mortality toll from the recent pandemic was not as high as it was during past pandemics such as the Black Death and the Spanish flu, not only because of the virus' biology but also due to technological capabilities and efficacy of national health care systems, especially the timely provision of vaccines. Unlike some earlier pandemics that had vast impacts, COVID-19 was not an existential threat to human societies and human civilization. The conclusion is that while vigilance is required, future pandemics are unlikely to pose unmanageable threats as long as high standards of social order and medical knowledge and technology can be maintained.
... 64 Crosby speculated that there are several reasons for this "lapse" in memory, firstly that "lethal epidemics were not as unexpected and therefore not as impressive in 1918 as they would be today," as that period was a time when "terrific epidemics of typhoid, yellow fever, diphtheria, cholera etc. were well within living memory." 65 In 1918, infectious diseases were commonplace to daily life in NL. It is likely that this affected the ability of people to remember the Spanish Flu pandemic as a particularly noteworthy event; it was just one of many outbreaks of infectious diseases that wreaked havoc in NL in the early twentieth century. ...
The current COVID-19 crisis emphasizes that pandemics are both biomedical phenomena and significant multifaceted historical events. The 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic, known as the “Spanish Flu,” was estimated to have killed between fifty to one hundred million people, yet historians like Alfred Crosby labelled the Spanish Flu a “forgotten” pandemic because of its absence from contemporary and academic writing. Memory of the pandemic has recently received academic attention in Pandemic Re-Awakenings (2022) though memories of thepandemic in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) were not explored in that work. This paper examines the memory of Spanish Flu in NL using both “global” and “local” perspectives and argues for the importance of applying globally recognized academic theory, methodology, and examples to local perspectives and experiences. During an era fixated on remembrance, the pandemic dead were concealed by the Great War, except members of the community who fit into heroic narratives. Without utilitarian value, the memory of the Spanish Flu was “forgotten,”an active and passive process that downplayed its impact on human society. Memory of the Spanish Flu persisted in private form and influenced the world through public health policy changes and as a precedent-setting event to be viewed in grim anticipation of future pandemics.
... Although investigation of the 1918 pandemic was neglected for many decades, much research has been conducted on this event in the last 35 years, and it has been known throughout this time that it was a true worldwide pandemic that reached even some of the most remote locations on earth (see, e.g., Crosby 1989;Johnson and Mueller 2002;Patterson and Pyle 1991;Phillips and Killingray 2003 for early reviews). The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated additional research on the 1918 influenza pandemic throughout the world, which is filling out our knowledge of this major event in many previously understudied regions. ...
The early twentieth century was a time of dramatic social, economic, political, demographic, and health-related change in Newfoundland and Labrador. One of the major upheavals at this time was the 1918 influenza pandemic, which led to the deaths of nearly 2,000 residents of the Dominion. In this paper we examine the short- and long-term demographic consequences of this catastrophic event. We focus on changes in the overall age and sex distribution, fertility levels, and cause-specific (for selected causes) and overall mortality before, during,and after the 1918 pandemic. Data on these demographic processes and the prevalent social conditions have been collected at The Rooms, the Digital Archives at Memorial University of Newfoundland, and other archives in the province and online. Results indicate that, although the 1918 pandemic had major impacts over the short term on fertility, mortality, and the age and sex structure, both on the island as a whole and in every region analyzed, these effects were of short duration. Long-term demographic changes occurring on the island duringthe first half of the twentieth century appear to be more related to the large-scale socio-economic changes that occurred through the long process of moving from an independent Dominion to Confederation with Canada.
... La Gripe Española (1918)(1919), fue una de las pandemias más devastadoras del siglo XX, causando la muerte de aproximadamente 50 millones de personas en todo el mundo. La incertidumbre, el aislamiento y el temor a la muerte inminente generaron una oleada de trastornos mentales, incluyendo la ansiedad y el estrés postraumático, especialmente entre los soldados que regresaban de la Primera Guerra Mundial (Crosby, 2003). ...
Este estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar el comportamiento de un grupo de dimensiones de la inteligencia emocional en pacientes con COVID-19 del Centro de Salud de Tlapa de Comonfort, Guerrero, México. Se empleó un diseño metodológico cualitativo, no experimental y transversal, de tipo explicativo; con una muestra de 25 pacientes adultos diagnosticados con COVID-19 durante el año en curso, con una selección intencional de los participantes. Los métodos utilizados fueron el grupo focal y la entrevista semiestructurada. Los resultados revelaron que el evento crítico vivido al padecer de COVID-19, ha impactado negativamente en varias dimensiones de la inteligencia emocional, lo que ha afectado directamente tanto a los pacientes como al personal de enfermería durante su atención. En la discusión se contrastan estos hallazgos con estudios previos, subrayando la importancia de fortalecer la formación en esta área del desarrollo humano. Se concluye que eventos de la magnitud del Covid-19 pueden desestabilizar procesos motivacionales, la capacidad de autorregulación y habilidades socioemocionales como la empatía; además de la necesidad inminente de ofrecer nuevas estrategias para mejorar el afrontamiento de los pacientes y la calidad de atención en situaciones de crisis por parte del personal sanitario.
... In 1976, Alfred Crosby was one of the first to speculate about this historical amnesia in his seminal Epidemic and Peace, 1918 (its 1989 reissue was renamed America's Forgotten Pandemic). 22 Many of his tentative theories have since been repeated to the point of acceptance. They include: (1) in 1918 'lethal epidemics were not as unexpected' as today; (2) the disease's brevity meant its effects on society and the economy were ambiguous and ephemeral; (3) few famous (i.e., memorable) individuals died; (4) war deaths distracted from flu deaths, even as flu deaths were subsumed under war deaths; and (5) the pandemic was 'only' flu, which made it banal and forgettable. ...
This article argues that the 1918 flu appeared so suddenly, spread so rapidly, killed so quickly and disappeared so swiftly that Europeans’ focus on their immediate circumstances led them to experience and interpret it as a local health crisis rather than as a global or continental pandemic. It also demonstrates that Europeans were so inured to privation and death; so isolated by anemic and dysfunctional media and medical regimes; and so distracted by economic, political and social chaos that they were either unaware of or unconcerned with the flu’s origin. It takes as its source base nearly 1,000 memories of the 1918 flu collected from individuals across ten European countries and archival materials from federal, municipal, religious and diary archives in France (an Allied power in the First World War), Germany (a Central power in the First World War) and Switzerland (a neutral power in the First World War).
... The devastating H1N1 flu pandemic of 1918/19 started in Kansas and then spread globally. Even though there were no known antiviral treatments, it showed the value of nurses in healthcare (Crosby, 2003). The virus most likely arose from domestic and wild birds in North America, rather than from a pig virus adapting to humans (Hoag, 2014), but given that respiratory illness outbreaks in US swine occurred concurrently with human infections, the 1918 virus might have originated more directly in pigs. ...
The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in much pain, loss of life, and social disruption. However, this is only the most recent epidemic. There have been several serious disease outbreaks and pandemics throughout history, including the Black Death, Spanish flu and SARS which brought devastating effects globally. This article places the COVID-19 pandemic into the wider context of previous pandemics. The study's major objective is to compare the mortality rates, as well as the socioeconomic and demographic implications of the most recent pandemic, to prior pandemics. This provides the context that allows us to estimate future risks from pandemics. The research found that the mortality toll from the recent pandemic was not as high as it was during past pandemics such as the Black Death and the Spanish flu, not only because of the virus' biology but also due to technological capabilities and efficacy of national health care systems, especially the timely provision of vaccines. Unlike some earlier pandemics that had vast impacts, COVID-19 was not an existential threat to human societies and human civilization. The conclusion is that while vigilance is required, future pandemics are unlikely to pose unmanageable threats as long as high standards of social order and medical knowledge and technology can be maintained.
... Second, individuals self-initiate behavioral changes due to the concern induced by the disease [29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36]. Behavioral changes vary from simply avoiding social contact with infected individuals and crowded spaces [37] to reducing travel [38,39] and preventing children from attending school. In all cases we have a modification of the spreading process due to the change of mobility or contact patterns in the population. ...
The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single individuals. However, relatively little systematic work has been done to provide coupled behavior-disease models able to close the feedback loop between behavioral changes triggered in the population by an individual's perception of the disease spread and the actual disease spread itself. While models lacking this coupling can be extremely successful in mild epidemics, they obviously will be of limited use in situations where social disruption or behavioral alterations are induced in the population by knowledge of the disease. Here we propose a characterization of a set of prototypical mechanisms for self-initiated social distancing induced by local and non-local prevalence-based information available to individuals in the population. We characterize the effects of these mechanisms in the framework of a compartmental scheme that enlarges the basic SIR model by considering separate behavioral classes within the population. The transition of individuals in/out of behavioral classes is coupled with the spreading of the disease and provides a rich phase space with multiple epidemic peaks and tipping points. The class of models presented here can be used in the case of data-driven computational approaches to analyze scenarios of social adaptation and behavioral change.
... In a little over a century, for example, there have been four recognized influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009). These differed widely in the numbers infected and the severity of symptoms, with the greatest differences in impact being between 1918 and 2009 (Crosby 2003;Shrestha et al. 2010). ...
Mathematical modeling has become an essential component of planning for and responding to infectious disease outbreaks and other threats. Modeling can provide insights into possible scenarios when there are insufficient data for statistical analysis to produce solid guidance for decision-makers, allowing them to, for example, undertake immediate response for the most likely outcomes and begin contingency planning for worst-case scenarios. Good modeling depends on using experience and well-tested models and bringing in new data as they become available in a continuous process of refinement. Modeling can provide a sense of the interventions needed, the magnitude of required response, and what leadership needs to convey to the health care system and the broader population. An introduction to the main types of models used in infectious disease response follows, along with a summary of how to communicate the results to decision-makers. A worked example allows readers to follow along with the development of a modeling and information process. Modeling cannot produce predictions in the absence of essential data, but it can provide guidance on what could happen, and do so with increasing reliability as more data on the complex interactions between a pathogen and human populations become available.
... Al paso de los días, y debido al aumento en el número de afectados, otros diarios se sumaron a la cobertura de la enfermedad. La ola contagiosa se expandió a una velocidad inusitada (Netzahualcoyotzi, 2003;Molina, 2021), hasta provocar una cifra que rondaría los 300 mil muertos (Ordorica y Lezama, 1993), mientras que en el nivel mundial se calcula entre 21 y 100 millones de fallecidos, sobre todo en personas de entre 15 y 44 años (Ansart et al., 2009;Erkoreka, 2009), aunque el consenso mayor se sitúa en los 50 millones de muertos (Crosby, 2012). ...
Este texto analiza, desde la perspectiva del framing, la forma en que los periódicos enmarcaron la “influenza española” que padecieron los habitantes de Chiapas en 1918. Se encontró que en un principio trataron de minimizar la letalidad de la enfermedad, pero cuando los fallecidos incrementaron y se comprobó la gravedad de la situación, destacaron las medidas dictadas por las autoridades políticas y sanitarias, la solidaridad generada y, de forma marginal, las consecuencias económicas. El frame que más se empleó fue de interés humano, seguido por el de soluciones/recomendaciones y de atribución de responsabilidad, en un contexto en el que Chiapas vivía enfrentamientos militares, aunque ya disminuidos, de la Revolución mexicana.
... Unfortunately, we have a habit of forgetting pandemics in an effort to move past them. The 1918 Flu pandemic is dubbed "the forgotten pandemic" and historians of medicine have suggested that there is a longer tradition of treating pandemics as episodic disruptions from an otherwise normal trajectory (Jones et al. 2021;Crosby 2003). The 2006 SARS Commission report appears to have had little impact on our readiness, as commentators continue to note (Miller 2020;Bubela et al. 2023). ...
COVID-19 was a stark reminder that understanding a novel pathogen is essential but insufficient to protect us from disease. Biomedical and technical solutions are necessary, but they do not prevent or resolve misinformation, vaccine hesitancy, or resistance to public health measures, nor are they sufficient to advance the development of more equitable and effective healthcare systems. Responding to crises such as pandemics requires deep collaboration drawing on multiple methodologies and perspectives. Along with the science, it is imperative to understand cultures, values, languages, histories, and other determinants of human behaviour. This policy briefing argues that the humanities—a group of methodologically diverse fields, including interdisciplinary studies that overlap significantly with the social determinants of health—are an underused source of cultural and social insight that is increasingly important and could be better leveraged in such collaboration. Humanities disciplines approach health and illness as part of the human condition. Their historical perspective could be more effectively mobilized to explore the social and cultural context in which science exists and evolves, in turn, helping us understand the forces shaping perceptions, concerns, and assumptions.
... Because it is a highly mutagenic virus, periodic pandemics sweep the globe, of which the most devastating in modern history occurred in 1918 (Barry, 2005). As Alfred Crosby and Arno Karlen have argued, one of the most unusual aspects of the influenza pandemic was that for a time, it was largely forgotten amongst the general population (Crosby, 1990;Karlen, 1995, p. 145). Global health authorities, however, always remained aware of the dangers that influenza poses. ...
... "Epidemic and Peace, 1918" by Alfred W. Crosby (1976) was the first of its kind, raising awareness about the Influenza of 1918 and dissociating it from the causalities of World War I. The recent edition of the study (Crosby, 2003) lays out a comprehensive account of the recent incidences in continental Asia's pandemic history and points out that the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) during the last decade of the twentieth century provided the groundwork for preparedness in Asia, specifically in China. Crosby's estimation for casualties of the Influenza of 1918 ranged between thirty to one hundred million, more than the overall casualties of World War I. ...
Following the World Health Organization (WHO)'s declaration of ending the public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) for the COVID-19 pandemic in May 2023, this study seizes the opportune moment to analyze it alongside its historical precedent, the Influenza of 1918, commonly known as the Spanish flu. Amid the ongoing US-China rivalry for global leadership, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out when a century had elapsed since the Influenza of 1918. This analysis aims to test the hegemonic cycles approach of the World Systems Theory and to contribute to the literature of international political economy. The hegemonic cycles approach of the World Systems Theory calls for an analysis of the figures of industrial production, international trade, and finance to judge the changes within the international economy as a hegemonic shift, which occurs at 100-150 years in a circular nature. This study furthermore adds up the figures of GDP per capita to the analysis to provide insight into the level of welfare offered by the ascending hegemons to their citizens vis-à-vis the descending ones. Thus, changes in GDP per capita, industrial production, foreign trade, and finances of the UK vs. the US during the Influenza of 1918, and the US vs. China during COVID-19 provide insights into the political economy of pandemics in terms of their impact on changing hegemonic orders. The findings reveal that both pandemics triggered a period of hegemonic shift that was preeminent on economic terms within the international order.
... This balance between personal freedom and public health can sometimes create friction, since it is seen as an overreach by authorities. Historical instances, like the 1918 "Anti-Mask League" of San Francisco, demonstrate resistance to such mandates, where people openly opposed mask-wearing during the Spanish flu, an early example of pushback against public health measures (Crosby, 2003). Modern instances mirror these historical sentiments, especially observable during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted society and
politics, particularly in the context of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Public o�cials’ unpreparedness resulted in skepticism regarding government
responses. Additionally, health inequities and political polarization profoundly
influenced voter attitudes and behaviors.
Methods: This study employs statistical techniques to examine voting patterns,
leveraging data from the 2021 African American COVID-19 Vaccine Polls
(AACVP) alongside the 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey
(CMPS). Specifically, it utilizes logistic regression and t-tests to dissect and
understand the dichotomous electoral decisions made by voters between
Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential election. The research
analyzes the nuances of the electorate’s behavior by considering many factors
that may influence the binary vote decision.
Results: T-tests revealed significant mean dierences in voting patterns based
on public health compliance, with less compliant individuals more likely to vote
for Trump and more compliant individuals favoring Biden. Logistic regression
analysis showed a substantial statistical correlation between public health
compliance and voting preferences, independent of confounding variables.
Discussion: The study confirmed that public health compliance during the
pandemic impacted voting behavior, with a divide based on attitudes toward
health measures. This reflected broader societal divisions, suggesting that public
health behaviors are linked with political identities. Additionally, media sources
and racial identity significantly influenced voting decisions.
... 12 Prior influenza epidemics, revealed a 'U' shaped mortality curve, primarily affecting the old and the young. 13 In contrast, the 1918 influenza pandemic's mortality curve resembled a 'W,' causing death in many people aged twenty to forty. 14 This trend, compounded by the losses of the First World War, deeply affected communities across the country. ...
... In the late 1990s and early 2000s, genetic material originating from the influenza strain which caused the severe 1918 'Spanish flu' pandemic was isolated at Brevig Mission, Alaska (previously known as Teller Mission).The individual gene sequences were subsequently published and analyzed [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. While the 1918 H1N1 pandemic hit the Brevig Mission settlement hard, killing the majority of the inhabitants [9], such extreme fatality rates were not uncommon in Alaskan communities struck by the 1918 influenza [10][11][12]. The high level of preservation by the Alaskan permafrost was what allowed modern sequencing of 1918 influenza genes, including the NS gene which is our main object of study. ...
Leveraging the simplicity of raw nucleotide distances, we provide an intuitive window into the evolution of the human influenza A `nonstructural' (NS) gene. In an analysis suggested by the eminent Danish biologist Freddy B. Christiansen, we illustrate the existence of a continuous genetic ``backbone'' of influenza A NS genes, steadily increasing in distance to the 1918 root over more than a century. Interestingly, the 2009 influenza pandemic represents a clear departure from this enduring genetic backbone. Utilizing nucleotide distance maps and phylogenetic analyses, we illustrate remaining uncertainties regarding the origin of the 2009 pandemic, highlighting the complexity of influenza evolution. The NS gene is interesting precisely because it experiences neutral genetic drift over long periods of time time, while sudden deviations from this drift pattern can indicate changes in other genes via the hitchhiking effect. Our approach employs two measures based on genotypic distance - the rooted temporal Hamming map and the unrooted temporal Hamming distribution - to analyze the evolutionary dynamics of the NS gene. The rooted Hamming map elucidates distances between a reference sequence and all other sequences over time. In contrast, the unrooted temporal Hamming distribution captures the distribution of genotypic distances between simultaneously circulating viruses, thereby revealing patterns of sequence diversity and epi-evolutionary dynamics. Our study aims to supplement traditional tree-based phylogenetic inference with these direct temporal distance-based measures, offering transparent insights into the evolution of the influenza NS gene.
... About a month before I returned to the US at the end of , 1918, -1919, (Freetown, 1919. 29 Cole, "Sanitation, Disease and Public Health in Sierra Leone," 242. ...
This article provides a narrative about archival research experience in Sierra Leone as the coronavirus outbreak spread globally in early 2020. Coincidentally, the research concerned the country's history of epidemics since 1787, when Freetown, its first city, accommodated freed Blacks repatriated from Britain and the Americas. As Sierra Leone prepared for another disease outbreak after Ebola in 2014, leaving or staying in Freetown (after seven months into a ten-month Fulbright US Scholar term) had health and research outcomes at stake. Historicizing the pandemic while engaging personal/social memory in historical accounts, the article highlights containment measures adopted against epidemics/pandemics across time. Résumé: Cet article présente une expérience de recherche archivistique en Sierra Leone au moment où l'épidémie de coronavirus se propageait à l'échelle mondiale au début de 2020. Par coïncidence, la recherche a porté sur l'histoire des épidémies dans ce pays depuis 1787 lorsque Freetown, la première ville du pays, a accueilli les Noirs affranchis rapatriés de Grande-Bretagne et des Amériques. Alors que la Sierra Leone se préparait à une nouvelle épidémie après celle d'Ebola en 2014, la question de quitter ou rester à Freetown (après sept mois d'un séjour de dix mois en tant que boursier américain Fulbright) représentait un enjeu sur le plan de la santé et de la recherche. Tout en se penchant sur l'histoire des pandémies et en utilisant les concepts de mémoire personnelle et sociale, cet article met en lumière les mesures d'endiguement adoptées contre les épidémies/pandémies à travers le temps.
... The responses by both authors involve for Katherine a revised understanding of her memories of this distressing time, and for Deborah, a chance to access a small part of Katherine's experiences of which she previously had no knowledge. The 'Spanish influenza' pandemic a century ago has been called 'the forgotten pandemic' (Beiner 2021;Crosby 2003) because so little attention was paid to the millions of deaths and postviral health problems the continued to shorten the life expectancy of further millions around the world. COVID-19 should not be a similar 'forgotten pandemic': particularly as it continues to cause death, disability and suffering. ...
The COVID-19 crisis is still affecting millions of people worldwide. However, government and mass media attention to the continuing loss of life, severe illness and prolonged effects of COVID-19 has subsided, rendering the suffering of those who have become ill or disabled, or who have lost loved ones to the disease, largely hidden from view. In this article, we employ autoethnographic poetic inquiry from the perspective of a mother/carer whose young adult daughter became critically ill and hospitalised after becoming infected while the mother herself was isolating at home due to her own COVID-19 diagnosis. The first author created a poem from notes she had made in a journal from telephone conversations and messages with the healthcare providers caring for her daughter. The second author responded to the poem, identifying the feelings and meanings it surfaced. Together, the authors draw on scholarship discussing concepts of uncertainty, liminality, moral distress, bearing witness and illness narratives to reflect on how autoethnographic poetic inquiry can document and make visible COVID-19-related suffering.
... Moreover, NPIs do not directly affect the mortality rate from infection, but rather, attenuate the viral transmission which can reduce mortality overall [15]. The practice and use of NPIs are categorized into personal choices and policies or compulsory mandates [7,9,[15][16][17]. Many analyses indicate that while compulsory NPI mandates may have stronger effects mitigating the number of fatalities from infections than personal choices to practice NPIs, compulsory mandates also increased negative emotions and resentment about NPIs, safety precautions, and possibly affected the number of people willing to make personal choices [8,16,[18][19][20][21][22]. ...
The COVID-19 pandemic that spread throughout the globe has significantly altered our social and personal relationships. During the early phase of the pandemic, pharmaceutical interventions such as vaccine research and production were still in development, with international health agencies and governments promoting public health safety measures such as limiting mobility, school and work closures, lockdowns, economic incentives, mask-wearing, social distancing, quarantine, and hygiene to reduce the spread and flatten the curve regarding transmission and hospitalization. During the early wave (May 2020 through July 2020), we utilized a qualitative longitudinal research design coupled with weekly Zoom diary entries to investigate participant (n = 14) experiences. In doing so, we captured participant attitudes towards public health safety measures, as well as perceptions of social and interpersonal relationships during the pandemic. The main themes that emerged in our findings include feelings of safety and preparedness, personal accountability and collective responsibility, and changes to social life and relationships. While individuals have learned how to live with the pandemic, and have a new sense of normalcy, lessons learned from the impact of public health measures and social relationships have applicability moving forward post-pandemic. In particular, how to best protect against the deleterious effects of isolation during a future public health crisis.
... Their quarantine measures were successful in protecting Australians from the second wave until December 1918 when the measures were finally breached [5,17]. Furthermore, it has been argued that Australia's quarantine measures indirectly helped in protecting Pacific Islands that depended on Australian supply ships [7,[18][19][20][21]. ...
The influenza pandemic of 1918-19 was the most devastating pandemic of the 20th century. It killed an estimated 50–100 million people worldwide. In late 1918, when the severity of the disease was apparent, the Australian Quarantine Service was established. Vessels returning from overseas and inter-state were intercepted, and people were examined for signs of illness and quarantined. Some of these vessels carried the infection throughout their voyage and cases were prevalent by the time the ship arrived at a Quarantine Station. We study four outbreaks that took place on board the Medic, Boonah, Devon, and Manuka in late 1918. These ships had returned from overseas and some of them were carrying troops that served in the First World War. By analysing these outbreaks under a stochastic Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework, we estimate the transmission rates among crew and passengers aboard these ships. Furthermore, we ask whether the removal of infectious, convalescent, and healthy individuals after arriving at a Quarantine Station in Australia was an effective public health response.
... The pattern of spread of the global 1918-20 influenza pandemic has been characterized as a series of three waves occurring during an approximate one-year period in 1918 and 1919 [62,63]. A growing body of recent research suggests that many regions, including the State of Missouri, experienced a substantial fourth wave of the pandemic in 1920 [58,[64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71]. ...
This study compares pandemic experiences of Missouri’s 115 counties based on rurality and sociodemographic characteristics during the 1918–20 influenza and 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemics. The state’s counties and overall population distribution have remained relatively stable over the last century, which enables identification of long-lasting pandemic attributes. Sociodemographic data available at the county level for both time periods were taken from U.S. census data and used to create clusters of similar counties. Counties were also grouped by rural status (RSU), including fully (100%) rural, semirural (1–49% living in urban areas), and urban (>50% of the population living in urban areas). Deaths from 1918 through 1920 were collated from the Missouri Digital Heritage database and COVID-19 cases and deaths were downloaded from the Missouri COVID-19 dashboard. Results from sociodemographic analyses indicate that, during both time periods, average farm value, proportion White, and literacy were the most important determinants of sociodemographic clusters. Furthermore, the Urban/Central and Southeastern regions experienced higher mortality during both pandemics than did the North and South. Analyses comparing county groups by rurality indicated that throughout the 1918–20 influenza pandemic, urban counties had the highest and rural had the lowest mortality rates. Early in the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic, urban counties saw the most extensive epidemic spread and highest mortality, but as the epidemic progressed, cumulative mortality became highest in semirural counties. Additional results highlight the greater effects both pandemics had on county groups with lower rates of education and a lower proportion of Whites in the population. This was especially true for the far southeastern counties of Missouri (“the Bootheel”) during the COVID-19 pandemic. These results indicate that rural-urban and socioeconomic differences in health outcomes are long-standing problems that continue to be of significant importance, even though the overall quality of health care is substantially better in the 21st century.
... As with the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality seen in AI/AN populations, similar historical patterns are documented for other respiratory infections such as the 1918 influenza pandemic, tuberculosis, and the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic (39)(40)(41)(42). The underlying etiology for the disproportionate burden of severe COVID-19 and mortality in the AI/AN people is almost certainly multifactorial and may include social determinants of health, as well as potential immunological responses to the virus, among many other nonmedical and medical factors. ...
Epidemiological data across the United States of America illustrate health disparities in COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality by race/ethnicity. However, limited information is available from prospective observational studies in hospitalized patients, particularly for American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations. Here, we present risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 and mortality in patients (4/2020–12/2021, n = 475) at the University of New Mexico Hospital. Data were collected on patient demographics, infection duration, laboratory measures, comorbidities, treatment(s), major clinical events, and in-hospital mortality. Severe disease was defined by COVID-related intensive care unit requirements and/or death. The cohort was stratified by self-reported race/ethnicity: AI/AN (30.7%), Hispanic (47.0%), non-Hispanic White (NHW, 18.5%), and Other (4.0%, not included in statistical comparisons). Despite similar timing of infection and comparable comorbidities, admission characteristics for AI/AN patients included younger age (P = 0.02), higher invasive mechanical ventilation requirements (P = 0.0001), and laboratory values indicative of more severe disease. Throughout hospitalization, the AI/AN group also experienced elevated invasive mechanical ventilation (P < 0.0001), shock (P = 0.01), encephalopathy (P = 0.02), and severe COVID-19 (P = 0.0002), consistent with longer hospitalization (P < 0.0001). Self-reported AI/AN race/ethnicity emerged as the highest risk factor for severe COVID-19 (OR = 3.19; 95% CI = 1.70–6.01; P = 0.0003) and was a predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR = 2.35; 95% CI = 1.12–4.92; P = 0.02). Results from this study highlight the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on hospitalized AI/AN patients, who experienced more severe illness and associated mortality, compared to Hispanic and NHW patients, even when accounting for symptom onset and comorbid conditions. These findings underscore the need for interventions and resources to address health disparities in the COVID-19 pandemic.
... In the 2009 pandemic, Indigenous groups in North America, Oceania, and the Pacific had 3-8 times higher pandemic mortality than the majority populations [15,16]. Studies of Indigenous populations in North America and Oceania find raised risk for adverse health outcomes both today and 100 years ago [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24]. ...
Background:
Several studies have documented that specific Indigenous groups have been disproportionately affected by previous pandemics. The objective of this paper is to describe the protocol to be used in a review and meta-analysis of the literature on Indigenous groups and influenza. Using this protocol as a guide, a future study will provide a comprehensive historical overview of pre-COVID impact of influenza on Indigenous groups by combining data from the last five influenza pandemics and seasonal influenza up to date.
Methods/principle findings:
The review will include peer-reviewed original studies published in English, Spanish, Portuguese, Swedish, Danish, and Norwegian. Records will be identified through systematic literature search in eight databases: Embase, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science, Academic Search Ultimate, SocINDEX, ASSIA, and Google Scholar. Results will be summarized narratively and using meta-analytic strategies.
Discussion:
To our knowledge, there is no systematic review combining historical data on the impact of both seasonal and pandemic influenza on Indigenous populations. By summarizing results within and across Indigenous groups, different countries, and historical periods, as well as research in six different languages, we aim to provide information on how strong the risk for influenza is among Indigenous groups and how consistent this risk is across groups, regions, time, and seasonal versus the specific pandemic influenza strains.
Systematic review registration:
PROSPERO CRD42021246391.
The 1889 Russian (also called ‘Asiatic’) Flu epidemic can be described as one of the first modern pandemics. The development of extensive railroad and shipping networks during and prior to this period facilitated the previously unprecedented movement of goods and people around the world. It additionally propagated the process of shrinking the barriers between the countryside and major metropolises. While the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in lockdown measures nearly worldwide and prompted widespread social, economic, and cultural disruptions, the Russian Flu was not accompanied by such drastic changes. In this article, it is argued that the blunted historical consciousness of this epidemic were a result of a combination of factors, including the nascent state of scientific research and understanding of infectious diseases, the circumscribed reach of media, implicit comparisons to other contemporary epidemics, temporal closeness to the Spanish Flu and suppression of memory, and most substantially the lack of an organized public health apparatus to act upon the epidemic. As a result, the 1889 Russian pandemic, though significant in terms of its mortality and economic impact, was quickly forgotten from the collective consciousness and has long been a hidden lesson from history.
The idea of “epidemic constitutions” is attributed to Thomas Sydenham, one of the most eminent physicians of the 17th century. Regardless of the type of disease epidemic (cholera, influenza, smallpox), it aimed to explain what remains unexplained to this day: Why now? And why do some develop serious illness while others do not? In this article, I review some debates that occurred during the cholera epidemics of the 19th century, discuss the idea of telluric “epidemic constitutions”, and propose a reinterpretation, or perhaps just an updated interpretation of Thomas Sydenham's amazing insight into the cause of epidemic constitutions: a confluence between an exciting cause that was in the atmosphere and a predisposing cause that was in the bodies of the sufferers themselves . With what we have learned since then, I explain his insight as representing the process and product of our co-evolution with Influenza A viruses. I explore theoretically how this interpretation would explain differences in rates and distributions of infection, disease and mortality during epidemics, and, propose alternative explanations to the epidemiology of the early emergence of COVID-19 in China and selected countries, based on an epidemiological inquiry on the circulation of influenza viruses during the 2019-2020 influenza season across those countries. The approach brought up new questions that could only emerge from epidemiological (population-based) reasoning (what causes vulnerability?) and epidemiological studies (what was the context of influenza during the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic?), such as: a) did Influenza B have a role in the production of vulnerability to infection by the SARS-COV2 virus? b) do the SARS-COV2 virus and the H1N1 influenza virus share some immunological attribute conductive to a same type of immune-inflammatory response among non-H1 primed individuals? Or do the sequence B-H1 and B-SARS_COV2 produce similar morbidity? Does a sequence of B – H1 – SARS-COV2 explain the severity of COVID-19 Pandemic in the US? Do the SARS-COV2 viruses and the H1N1 viruses compete in the same ecological spot? What would this mean for future developments of our immune-inflammatory landscape?
Las coyunturas de epidemia y de pandemia ponen al descubierto la desigualdad en las sociedades, entre otros, a través de las diferencias en las tasas de morbilidad y de letalidad. Pero también constituyen momentos en que las representaciones, acerca de los pobres y de la pobreza, se manifiestan con mayor claridad. El artículo estudia esta temática durante dos pandemias en México, la del cólera en 1833 y la de la influenza española en 1918.
As happened in other regions of the planet, the arrival of influenza in Chiapas (Mexico) showed the lack of knowledge of the viral origin of the disease that made it impossible to face the pandemic with the required capacity. In the case of Chiapas, we must add to this situation the political-military conflict that was experienced in its territory and the weakness of state public institutions to coordinate and address the health emergency. At this juncture, the isolationist actions carried out, and the remedies used and recommended, show the heterogeneity of explanations about the origin of the disease in a Chiapas with little presence of doctors. Through primary and secondary sources, the article describes, from historical methodology, some of the measures taken to stop the spread of influenza and that demonstrate the coexistence of medical interpretations to stop the progression of the disease and care for patients.
A História Oral (HO) enquanto campo de pesquisas tem conseguido abranger as mais diversas temáticas. Dentre os segmentos possíveis, aquele que a vincula à possibilidade de discussões públicas e a viabilização do acesso aos direitos por parte dos sujeitos tem nos motivado ao longo de nossa trajetória. Neste texto, pretendemos nos debruçar sobre as possibilidades da história Oral quando o assunto é o direito à saúde em suas mais amplas dimensões. Desde o acesso aos serviços básicos – e o quanto pode impactar a formação de profissionais da área da saúde – até os debates que envolvem a luta e a conquista de direitos ainda não consolidados, especialmente quando se trata de grupos em situação de maior vulnerabilidade.
During and after World War I, two humanitarian organizations galvanized the support of American men, women, and children to provide for France's children. Between 1914 and 1921, the Committee Franco-American for the Protection of the Children of the Frontier (CFAPCF) and the Fatherless Children of France Society (FCFS) capitalized on the generosity of Americans who believed that supporting a French child in need was seen as a moral and patriotic duty. Through a network of twenty-eight colonies – private homes and estates loaned for this specific purpose – the CFAPCF rescued, sheltered, and cared for children from invaded and occupied war zones, while the FCFS asked Americans to sponsor France's children of the war dead. Combining cultural, political, and diplomatic history, Emmanuel Destenay charts the rapid growth of these organizations and brings to light the unparalleled contribution made by Americans in support of France's children in time of war.
Avian influenza (AI) is a poultry disease caused by infection with type A influenza viruses, specifically avian influenza viruses (AIV). Influenza A viruses are zoonotic organisms that pose a recurring challenge to the world each year. Historically, there have been recurring human pandemics caused by influenza A viruses. Aquatic birds in the wild serve as carriers for all forms of influenza virus A subtypes, making them the most likely natural reservoir for all influenza A viruses. While avian influenza viruses in their natural bird reservoir are often not very pathogenic, certain strains have become more virulent through genetic changes following transmission and adaption to vulnerable gallinaceous chickens. The major focus of this chapter is to demonstrate our present understanding of the cellular foundations of influenza virus disease and its progression, which are responsible for serious complications, and the preventive and therapeutic approaches now in use to combat influenza virus infection. It also underscores the crucial role of continued research, such as developing new vaccine technologies and studying virus mutations, in enhancing vaccination efficacy and understanding the virus, offering hope for future advancements. This chapter will also elaborate on the epidemiological aspects of avian influenza
Data for many nations show a long-run increase, over many decades, of income, indexed by GDP per capita, and population health, indexed by mortality or life expectancy at birth (LEB). However, the short-run and long-run relationships between these variables have been interpreted in different ways, and many controversies are still open. Some authors have claimed that the causal relationships between population health and income can be discovered using cointegration models. We show, however, that empirically testing a cointegration relation between LEB and GDP per capita is not a sound method to infer a causal link between health and income. For a given country it is easy to find computer-generated data or time series of real observations, related or unrelated to the country, that according to standard methods are also cointegrated with the country's LEB. More generally, given a trending time series, it is easy to find other series, observational or artificial, that appear cointegrated with it. Thus, standard cointegration methodology cannot distinguish whether cointegration relationships are spurious or causal.
COVID-19 has become a global pandemic that has affected millions of people worldwide. The disease is caused by the novel coronavirus that was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The virus is highly contagious and can spread from person to person through respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or breathes. The symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, cough, and shortness of breath, and in severe cases, it can lead to respiratory failure, pneumonia, and death. The Spanish flu, caused by the H1N1 influenza virus, and the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are two of the most significant global health crises in history. While these two pandemics occurred almost a century apart and are caused by different types of viruses, there are notable similarities in their impact, transmission, and public health responses. Here are some key similarities between the Spanish flu and SARS-CoV-2. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918–1919 stands as one of the deadliest pandemics in human history, claiming the lives of an estimated 50 million people worldwide. Its impact reverberated across continents, leaving behind a legacy of devastation and lessons that, unfortunately, seem to have been forgotten or ignored over time. Despite the advancements in science, medicine, and public health in the intervening century, humanity found itself facing a strikingly similar situation with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, amidst the search for effective measures to combat COVID-19, novel approaches such as iodine complexes, such as Iodine-V has emerged as potential interventions, reflecting the ongoing quest for innovative solutions to mitigate the impact of pandemics. This raises the poignant question: why did we not learn from the Spanish flu?
Background
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) decrease COVID-19 transmission. Reliability and validity of adherence to NPIs in accordance with normalization process theory (NPT) in coherent and convenient social subgroups using reflective measurement model assessment has not been evaluated.
Methods
In February 2021, a sample of medical students and people with substance use disorders in treatment as coherent (based on continuous probability distribution) vs. convenient groups (based on convenience, not equal probability) composed of travellers and COVID-19 suspected persons from Split-Dalmatia County (SDC) (n = 656) in the Mediterranean completed self-administered surveys. Partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was used to measure reflective model assessment of adherence to NPIs according to NPT.
Results
PLS-SEM reflective model assessment provided two-group specific factors in inverse relationships which determined adherence to NPIs with excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2 = 1.292, df = 1; P = 0.297, CFI = 1, TLI = 0.997, RMSEA = 0.011 (90% CI 0–0.105), RMSEA P = 0.604, SRMR = 0.008, Hoelter CN (α = 0.05) = 2322.757]. Significant negative factors covariance estimate (−0.716) revealed an inverse relationship between first (adherence to NPIs and internal locus of control (LoC) (0.640)) and second factor; young adulthood age (≤25) and highest level of education (1362). As the first factor increased the second tended to decrease. LoC is expected potential mechanism by which sex (MLsex = −0.017, SE = 0.007, P < 0.016) and belonging to coherent subgroups (MLgroup = −0.008, SE = 0.003, P = 0.015) can produce indirect effect of adherence to NPIs.
Conclusions
Coherent subgroups had a more pronounced tendency toward integration of NPIs in everyday life. Group factors that facilitate the normalization were higher educated younger adults with a tendency toward external LoC.
Herpes simplex virus, type 1, (HSV-1) is a common viral pathogen. The majority
of infections occur during childhood. People who exhibit symptoms from
HSV-1 infection can experience genital/oral ulcers (cold sores), latency in
sensory neurons, and necrotizing encephalitis, and once HSV has infected the
host organism, the individual may be infected for life. This study investigated
inhibition of the herpes simplex viruses, type 1 by Ginsenoside 20(S)-Rg3 (Rg3),
since this ginsenoside has been reported to inhibit HSV. Mice were dosed
with specific amounts of Rg3 and infected with HSV-1. Tissues including brain,
spleen, liver, and serum were collected and analyzed for the presence of HSV-1
by the polymerase chain reaction. Although Rg3 treatment appeared to be
successful in vitro, it was not successful in inhibiting the virus in the living
mice.
Between Thomas Edison’s invention of the phonograph in 1877 and World War I, inventors, entrepreneurs, performers, and listeners transformed the singular talking machines of the late 1870s to the ubiquitous music machines of the twentieth century. Through selected images, objects, and links to period sounds, this essay offers a chronological glimpse of interacting social, technical, and entrepreneurial forces at work. Combining visual, aural, and material sources in this way enlarges the historian’s toolbox for understanding the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.
Desde a antiguidade, a humanidade possui o hábito de utilizar plantas medicinais como tratamento profilático para enfermidades, principalmente aquelas que acometem o sistema respiratório como as infecções virais. A Echinacea purpurea (EP) contém um amplo espectro de propriedades terapêuticas que podem ser úteis nas infecções virais. Esse trabalho teve como objetivo descrever, por meio de um estudo de revisão bibliográfica, as atividades imunomoduladora e antiviral de extratos obtidos a partir da planta EP, bem como as concentrações e constituintes químicos relacionados à atividade contra os vírus da Herpes e Influenza. Para isso, foi realizada uma busca na literatura científica, utilizando as bases de dados PubMed, Scielo, Sapientia e Google Acadêmico. A análise dos estudos demonstrou que extratos de EP e seus constituintes apresentam atividade antiviral e imunomoduladora útil na prevenção e tratamento de infecções virais, entretanto, se faz necessário a realização de outros estudos para elucidar os mecanismos de ação dos constituintes da planta.
'Marie Allègre meditates on the phenomenological effects and strangeness of Woolf’s figurative language, bringing together an “embodied nature of human understanding” with “the otherness of what escapes it” (20).'
Twentieth-century circumpolar epidemics shaped historical interpretations of disease in European imperialism in the Americas and beyond. In this revisionist history of epidemic disease as experienced by northern peoples, Liza Piper illuminates the ecological, spatial, and colonial relationships that allowed diseases – influenza, measles, and tuberculosis in particular – to flourish between 1860 and 1940 along the Mackenzie and Yukon rivers. Making detailed use of Indigenous oral histories alongside English and French language archives and emphasising environmental alongside social and cultural factors, When Disease Came to this Country shows how colonial ideas about northern Indigenous immunity to disease were rooted in the racialized structures of colonialism that transformed northern Indigenous lives and lands, and shaped mid-twentieth century biomedical research.
Bu çalışmada amaç, Covid-19 geçirmiş üniversite öğrencilerinin deneyimlerini çok yönlü olarak değerlendirmek ve konu ile ilgili bir ölçek geliştirmektir. Araştırmanın örneklemini çalışmaya gönüllü olarak katılan Covid-19 geçirmiş 120 öğrenci oluşturmaktadır. Verilere yönelik faktör analizi, t testi ve Anova testleri yapılmıştır. Covid-19’u geçirme şiddetinin kronik hastalığın var olup olmaması ve aşı olma durumuna göre değişmediği görülmüştür. Covid-19 hastalığını geçirme şiddetinin öğrencinin ekonomik durumu, aşı doz sayısı, Covid-19 aşı türü, doktor tavsiyeli ilaç kullanma durumu ve bitkisel ilaç kullanım durumuna göre değişmediği görülmüştür. Öğrencilerin Türkiye sağlık sistemine yarısına yakının güvendiği, neredeyse tamamının Covid-19 aşısı olduğu olduğu görülmüştür. Covid-19 ile mücadelede kurallara uyulması, aşı olma gibi faktörlere uyulduğu görülmüştür. Aşı, aşı türü, ilaç gibi faktörlerin hastalığın şiddeti üzerinde etkili olmadığı görülmüştür.
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