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Does Daylight Saving Time Save Energy? Evidence From A Natural Experiment In Indiana
Abstract
The history of Daylight Saving Time (DST) has been long and controversial. Throughout its implementation during World Wars I and II, the oil embargo of the 1970s, consistent practice today, and recent extensions, the primary rationale for DST has always been to promote energy conservation. Nevertheless, there is surprisingly little evidence that DST actually saves energy. This paper takes advantage of a natural experiment in the state of Indiana to provide the first empirical estimates of DST effects on electricity consumption in the United States since the mid-1970s. Focusing on residential electricity demand, we conduct the first-ever study that uses micro-data on households to estimate an overall DST effect. The dataset consists of more than 7 million observations on monthly billing data for the vast majority of households in southern Indiana for three years. Our main finding is that -- contrary to the policy's intent -- DST increases residential electricity demand. Estimates of the overall increase are approximately 1 percent, but we find that the effect is not constant throughout the DST period. DST causes the greatest increase in electricity consumption in the fall, when estimates range between 2 and 4 percent. These findings are consistent with simulation results that point to a tradeoff between reducing demand for lighting and increasing demand for heating and cooling. We estimate a cost of increased electricity bills to Indiana households of $9 million per year. We also estimate social costs of increased pollution emissions that range from $1.7 to $5.5 million per year. Finally, we argue that the effect is likely to be even stronger in other regions of the United States.
... The rationale remains the same: if daylight is transferred to the hours when light is needed the most, we will need less artificial light and save electricity. However, empirical evidence on whether DST serves to cut down on our consumption of electricity is mixed, as there are cases of a slight increase in consumption, although, at times, there is a decrease in the daily peaks of power used -see, for example, Kellogg and Wolff (2008), Kotchen andGrant (2011), andHancevic andMargulis (2018), among other relevant studies. ...
... The rationale remains the same: if daylight is transferred to the hours when light is needed the most, we will need less artificial light and save electricity. However, empirical evidence on whether DST serves to cut down on our consumption of electricity is mixed, as there are cases of a slight increase in consumption, although, at times, there is a decrease in the daily peaks of power used -see, for example, Kellogg and Wolff (2008), Kotchen andGrant (2011), andHancevic andMargulis (2018), among other relevant studies. ...
... However, the following three notable articles analyze the hypothesis, and their conclusions are contrary to mainstream logic. First, based on a natural experiment conducted in Indiana, US, Kotchen & Grant (2011) conclude that DST increases the consumption of electrical power and generates an additional cost of nine million US dollars for consumers. Second, Kellog & Wolf (2008) examine DST in Australia following an exogenous change resulting from the Olympic games and finds that the time change makes no significant difference in the consumption of elec-tricity. ...
Objective:
Several countries implement the daylight saving time (DST) policy for energy saving purposes. However, by artificially changing the distribution of daylight, this practice can have unforeseen effects. The objective of this work is to measure the impact of DST on road accidents in Mexico. Methodology: Using hourly data, two empirical strategies are used: regression discontinuity (RDD) and difference-in-differences (DD).
Results:
The main finding is that DST significantly reduces the total number of accidents in metropolitan areas. However, there are no clear effects on the number of fatal accidents.
Limitations/Implications:
DST is implemented regardless of demand conditions and the economic cycle. Seasonal changes in prices and production can be difficult to capture before and after the time change. We introduce variables that mitigate the (potential) identification problem.
Originality:
this is the only study measuring these effects in Mexico (and one of the few with data from emerging countries).
Conclusions:
The DST is currently being discussed in Mexico, and our study offers a more comprehensive evaluation of the policy, not only from the standpoint of energy efficiency.
... This question can of course be analyzed against the backdrop of social, economical, health-related, or other aspects (2)(3)(4)(5). With respect to traffic, there are various papers that analyze the impact of the clock change on traffic crashes (6,7). ...
... We run separate negative binomial regression models for morning hours (2:00-9:59) and for evening hours (15:00-22:59). 3 Moreover, we differentiate between mainly utilitarian, mixed, and mainly recreational bicycle counting stations, as these types of traffic have generally been shown to behave differently (17). 4 Against this backdrop, the 2 variables that account for links between morning and evening cycling (morning_rush_daylight and evening_rush_daylight) are used in the analyses of bicycle ridership at utilitarian counting stations, i.e. where commuting trips are very common. ...
... substitution by another means of transport), recreational trips are quite uncommon in morning hours, irrespective of the presence of daylight or twilight. 4 For the counter classification, we follow the method outlined in Wessel (20). We choose to run separate regressions for each counter type to better capture the idiosyncrasies of each type of traffic (e.g. ...
The European Union is in the process of abolishing the bi-annual clock change. Against this backdrop, we analyze how daylight and twilight affect the sustainable transport mode of cycling, and find that better daylight conditions generally lead to higher levels of cycling. The extent of this effect depends on the type of traffic and the time of day. An all-year implementation of Daylight Saving Time would then lead to an increase in overall cycling levels of around 3.14 %–3.37 %, compared to an all-year Standard Time. This would imply an increase of around 1.27–1.36 billion cycled kilometers per year in Germany alone. Additionally, we provide monetary estimates for the external effects of such changes in cycling levels.
... Bergland and Mirza (2017) provide insight into the effects of DST in EU member states and show that the effects do indeed differ by state. Recent evidence from other continents indicates energy costs due to the policy (Kellogg and Wolff, 2008;Kotchen and Grant, 2011). In this paper, we provide the first detailed analysis of the effect of DST in Slovakia, an EU member state with one of the lowest carbon intensities in electricity production. ...
... HMSO (1970), Hillman (1993), and Hill et al. (2010) report the savings for the United Kingdom; Wanko and Ingeborg (1983) and EVA (1978) report the savings for Austria; Danish Government Report (1974) and ELTRA (1984) for Denmark; Bouillon (1983), Ebersbach and Schaefer (1980), and Fischer (2000) for Germany (these estimates are contradictory to later studies, such as TAB, 2016, showing some costs from DST in Germany); EnergieNed (1995) and SEP (1995) provide the estimates for Netherlands, Bellere (1996), ENEL (1999), and Terna (2016) for Italy; Mirza and Bergland (2011) for Norway and Sweden; ADEME (1995) and ADEME (2010) for France; and finally Castoralova (2019), who to some extent contradicts the findings of Kozuskova (2011), for the Czech Republic electricity market. Negative savings (i.e., costs) of the DST policy are not unheard of, especially for the US (Kotchen and Grant, 2011) and Australian markets (Kellogg and Wolff, 2008). ...
... in the footsteps of Kotchen and Grant (2011) and Mirza and Bergland (2011). ...
The European Union has recently decided to stop the policy of biannual clock changes in 2021. One reason is that the original rationale for the policy, energy savings, is not supported by a large portion of recent empirical studies. Whether the new permanent time will be standard time or the former daylight saving time has not been decided. Evidence on energy savings from daylight saving time is country-specific, and each country may choose its own time. We examine the effects of the policy in a country for which no studies on daylight saving exist, Slovakia. Using hourly data from the 2010–2017 period, we apply a difference-in-differences approach and estimate energy savings to equal 1% of annual electricity consumption. Alternatively, extrapolating the effect from the results of a previous meta-analysis on different countries, for Slovakia we obtain a smaller estimate, unlikely to exceed 0.5%. Moreover, our findings suggest that daylight saving time smooths the electricity demand curve.
... Study 1, a natural experiment based on the change of DST policy, provides evidence for the effect of DST on variety seeking in products purchased, using Nielsen panel data. The clock is set ahead one hour in spring, which previous research has reliably shown to decrease short-term sleeping time and increase sleepiness (e.g., Barnes and Wagner 2009;Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi 2000;Kotchen and Grant 2011). Study 2 manipulated sleepiness by varying the time of day of the experiment and matching it with participants' chronotype (i.e., the tendency they have to be a morning person or evening person; Smith, Reilly, and Midkiff 1989). ...
... (2) there is extensive prior research (Barnes and Wagner 2009;Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi 2000;Kotchen and Grant 2011) using DST as the instrument to study the effect of sleeping time and sleepiness on a variety of activities; and (3) DST's extension is primarily related to energy saving, which should have minimal direct influence on variety seeking other than its short-term impact on sleepiness. ...
... Arizona has not observed DST since 1967. There were both DST and time-zone policy changes in Indiana (seeKotchen and Grant 2011), which complicates the identification strategy. ...
Sleepiness, the subjective feeling of the propensity to fall asleep, is a common, everyday experience that can be induced by various factors, such as sleep quality, sleep deprivation, ingestion of certain substances, or belief about how much sleep a person needs. Despite its prevalence, sleepiness and its influence on consumption behavior are rarely linked in the research to date. The present research helps fill this void by uncovering the novel impact of sleepiness on consumer variety-seeking behavior. The studies, using various methods and all involving consequential choices, revealed that sleepier consumers tended to seek more variety. The driver of this effect was found to be a need for arousal to maintain wakefulness. It was also shown that variety-seeking behavior is effective in partially reducing sleepiness. The effect of sleepiness on variety seeking uncovered in this research is somewhat non-intuitive, in the sense that, a priori, one might think that sleepiness is more likely to decrease rather than increase exploratory behavior. Implications of the findings for different research areas and for marketing practice are discussed.
... However, they do find a shift over the course of the day, with a reduction in consumption in the evening offset by an increase in consumption in the morning. The second study focused on the state of Indiana (Kotchen and Grant 2011). This study is based on a state policy change that caused a number of counties in Indiana that previously did not use DST to adopt DST. ...
... This study adds to existing literature on the impact of DST. Like Kellogg and Wolff (2008) and Kotchen and Grant (2011), it uses a natural experiment approach to infer the effect of DST on electricity consumption. In particular, I leverage the fact that adoption of DST occurs in a different calendar day each year. ...
... The original intent of daylight savings time was to reduce the demand for electricity over the evening hours. Some recent research has questioned the effectiveness of DST in this regard, in particular because in some regions the reduction in evening demand appears to have been offset by a commensurate increase in morning demand (Kotchen and Grant 2011;Kellogg and Wolff 2008). This study focuses on Canada, where the effects of DST have not been 13 The HOEP occasionally goes negative when demand is low and a significant amount of wind generation occurs. ...
Daylight savings time was adopted for the purposes of reducing energy consumption, but recent studies have cast some doubt on whether it still serves this purpose effectively. This study estimates the effect of daylight savings time on electricity demand in Ontario, Canada. It uses a quasi-experimental approach, by leveraging the fact that the transition to DST occurs on a different day in each year. The results suggest that daylight savings time reduces the demand for electricity by about 1.5% in Ontario. The reductions in electricity consumption is concentrated during the evening period. The reduction in electricity demand appears to persist for at least several weeks following the transition to daylight savings time.
... In terms of the DST policy and its effects there are recent examples that look at its effect on energy consumption which has been historically the main justification for the policy. DST was first implemented in Germany during World War I with the idea of " reducing demand for electrical lighting to free up more coal for the war effort " (Kotchen & Grant, 2011). It has since been implemented in more than 52 countries justified by potential energy savings (Kotchen & Grant, 2011). ...
... DST was first implemented in Germany during World War I with the idea of " reducing demand for electrical lighting to free up more coal for the war effort " (Kotchen & Grant, 2011). It has since been implemented in more than 52 countries justified by potential energy savings (Kotchen & Grant, 2011). However, some recent findings suggest that there is no empirical evidence that supports those savings. ...
... However, some recent findings suggest that there is no empirical evidence that supports those savings. Kotchen & Grant (2011) evaluate the effect of a 2006 change in Indiana state law that forced all counties to implementing DST where many but not all of them were already implementing DST in the previous years. They show, contrary to expectations an increase in residential electricity consumption. ...
... However, they do find a shift over the course of the day, with a reduction in consumption in the evening offset by an increase in consumption in the morning. The second study focused on the state of Indiana (Kotchen and Grant, 2011). This study is based on a state policy change that caused a number of counties in Indiana that previously did not use DST to adopt DST. ...
... This study adds to existing literature on the impact of DST. Like Kellogg and Wolff (2008) and Kotchen and Grant (2011), it uses a natural experiment approach to infer the effect of DST on electricity consumption. In particular, I leverage the fact that adoption of DST occurs in a different calendar day each year. ...
... The original intent of Daylight Savings Time was to reduce the demand for electricity over the evening hours. Some recent research has questioned the effectiveness of DST in this regard, in particular because in some regions the reduction in evening demand appears to have been offset by a commensurate increase in morning demand (Kotchen and Grant, 2011;Kellogg and Wolff, 2008). ...
... For a given location local times of sunrise and sunset only vary in a very smooth pattern over the year, which makes credible empirical estimation difficult. In terms of variations in local time, the exceptions are changes due to daylight-savings time (DST) 6 , and this variation has indeed been used to estimate effects on residential energy consumption (USdOT, 1975;Rock, 1997;CEC, 2001;Kandel, 2007;Kotchen and Grant, 2012;Kellogg and Wolff, 2008), coordination costs (Hamermesh et al., 2008), effects on trade and FDI (Marjit, 2007), on financial markets (Kamstra et al., 2000), and car accidents (Sood and Ghosh, 2007). Overall the results of the literature on electricity consumption are inconclusive. ...
... This study estimates the effect of the timing of daylight on electricity consumption. Electricity consumption presents an interesting case because US house- to estimate effects on residential energy consumption (USdOT, 1975;Rock, 1997;CEC, 2001;Kandel, 2007;Kotchen and Grant, 2012;Kellogg and Wolff, 2008). 1 The latter two are empirical studies that focus on local changes in DST regimes in Australia and the state of Indiana and use a local difference-in-difference approach for estimation. ...
... Contrary to Kotchen and Grant (2012) and Kellogg and Wolff (2008), I argue that rather than focussing on local changes in DST regimes, nationwide geo-temporal variation in local times of sunrise can be used for estimation. My approach has the advantage that I can fully examine the heterogeneity in the response of residential energy consumption across different latitudes and climate zones. ...
This thesis consists of four distinct projects which sit at the crossroad between Labour,
Education and Environmental Economics. The underlying and unifying theme is the
examination of social and geographical inequalities using applied econometrics.
In the first project, I estimate the effect of moving into a deprived high-density social
housing neighbourhood on the educational attainments of teenagers in England. I
exploit the timing of moving, which can be taken as exogenous because of long waiting
lists for social housing in high-demand areas, to avoid the usual sorting problems.
Using this strategy, I find no evidence for negative effects.
The second project investigates the effect of neighbours' characteristics and prior
achievements on teenagers' educational outcomes. The study relies on mover-induced
variation in neighbourhood quality, whilst controlling for general gentrification trends
and other unobservables. The results provide little evidence for significant effects on
pupil test score progression.
The third project looks at the size, significance and heterogeneity of ability peer
effects in secondary schools in England. The methodological innovation is to identify
ability peer effects using within-pupil-across-subject variation in students' test scores
and peer prior achievements. The chapter shows that it is the low- and high-achievers,
who account for most or all of the effect of average peer quality on the educational
outcomes of other pupils and that this effect varies across genders.
The final project presents -to the best of my knowledge- the first nationwide
empirical assessment of residential electricity use in response to the timing of daylight
for the US. Employing Geographical Information Systems (GIS), I calculate the solar
times of sunrise and sunset for all locations in mainland US and show that two distinct
sources of geographical variation can be used to estimate county-level responses in
residential electricity consumption. Using both approaches I find that early sunrise is
associated with lower residential electricity use in the North, but higher consumption
in the South. This is a novel finding with potentially significant policy implications and
I offer some suggestions about how future research should examine the behavioural
channels that could cause these results.
... Several recent studies have found significant negative health and productivity effects from DST or changes in the timing of sunlight due to time zones (e.g., Smith, 2016;Gibson and Shrader, 2018;Giuntella and Mazzonna, 2019). Other studies have shown a null impact of DST or a surprising increase in electricity consumption (Kellogg and Wolff, 2008;Kotchen and Grant, 2011). Although our goal is not to evaluate the welfare implications of the time zones -in which the counterfactual would be their elimination -our analysis reveals changes in ambient ozone concentrations due to intra-day shifts of economic activity through the natural effect of time zones. ...
... The primary difference would then be the amount of sunlight on the eastern or western side of the border for the same local time: all else equal, one would expect more sunlight at 8am CST vs. 8am EST. Therefore, in our setting the one-hour shift in activity (in GMT) due to the time zone border will cause changes in 15 As outlined in Kotchen and Grant (2011) and Smith (2016), there have been a number of changes to Daylight Savings Time (DST) from its most recent implementation in the Uniform Time Act of 1966. These changes altered the duration of DST by altering the start and end dates, but for our analysis of ozone near time zone borders the summer period (June-August) in all years has remained covered by DST in the contiguous U.S. minus Arizona and parts of Indiana (see Kellogg and Wolff, 2008 for details on the latter). ...
... Kellogg and Wolff (2008) conclude that DST extension in some Australian states to accommodate the 2000 Sydney Olympics did not lead to a net change in electricity consumption, only that it shifted the time of consumption. Kotchen and Grant (2011), examining household bills in Indiana, find instead that energy usage actually increases as a result of DST. By contrast, Rivers (2018) concludes that electricity demand decreases following the start of DST in Ontario. ...
... Our findings also help illuminate the mechanisms underlying previous empirical work. First, the mixed evidence of the effect of daylight saving time (DST) on energy usage (Kellogg and Wolff 2008;Kotchen and Grant 2011) can be understood partly as resulting from the influence of natural sunrise time on morning activity pattern. Individuals located farther west in the time zone wake up earlier in local solar time and are therefore more likely to increase early morning usage in response to DST, washing out or even reversing the savings from reduced evening light usage (this explanation supports the findings in Shaffer (2019)). ...
... D aylight Saving Time (DST) in the United States was originally implemented as a wartime measure to save energy and was extended as part of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. However, recent research demonstrates that DST does not save energy and could possibly increase energy use (Kellogg andWolff 2008, Kotchen andGrant 2011). Despite mounting evidence that DST fails in its primary goal, some form of Daylight Saving Time is still practiced by over 1.5 billion people globally. ...
... They find that while DST reduces energy demand in the evening, it increases demand in the morning with no significant net effect. Kotchen and Grant (2011) make use of a quasi-experiment in Indiana where some Southern Indiana counties did not practice DST until 2006. Their work suggests that DST could actually increase residential energy use, as increased heating and cooling use more than offset the savings from reduced lighting use. ...
Daylight Saving Time (DST ) impacts over 1.5 billion people, yet many of its impacts on practicing populations remain uncertain. Exploiting the discrete nature of DST transitions and a 2007 policy change, I estimate the impact of DST on fatal automobile crashes. My results imply that from 2002-2011 the transition into DST caused over 30 deaths at a social cost of $275 million annually. Employing four tests to decompose the aggregate effect into an ambient light or sleep mechanism, I find that shifting ambient light only reallocates fatalities within a day, while sleep deprivation caused by the spring transition increases risk.
... [4][5][6]. The body of research looking into the potential effects of DST on the economy, exercise, or energy costs have produced mixed results [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. While some findings indicate a benefit of permanent DST in these areas, other studies suggest little or even a detrimental effect. ...
Background: Permanent Daylight Savings Time (DST) may improve road safety by providing more daylight in the evening but could merely shift risk to morning commutes or increase risk due to fatigue and circadian misalignment. Methods: To identify how potential daylight exposure and fatigue risk could differ between permanent DST versus permanent Standard Time (ST) or current time arrangements (CTA), generic work and school schedules in five United States cities were modeled in SAFTE-FAST biomathematical modeling software. Commute data were categorized by morning (0700-0900) and evening (1600-1800) rush hours. Results: Percent darkness was greater under DST compared to ST for the total waking day (t=2.59, p=0.03) and sleep periods (t=2.46, p=0.045). Waketimes occurred before sunrise 63%±41% percent of the time under DST compared to CTA (42%±37%) or ST (33%±38%; F(2, 74)=76.37; p<0.001). Percent darkness was greater during morning (16%±31%) and lower during evening rush hour (0%±0%) in DST compare to either CTA (morning:7%±23%; evening:7%±14%) or ST (morning:7%±23%; evening:7%±15%). Discussion: Morning rush hour overlapped with students’ commutes and shift worker reverse commutes, which may increase traffic congestion and risk compared to evening rush hour. Switching to permanent DST may be more disruptive than either switching to ST or keeping CTA without noticeable benefit to fatigue or potential daylight exposure.
... Electricity can be conserved during the DST since individuals have more time to use daylight in the evening and hence use fewer electric lights. DST transitions have been found to have a measurable impact on electric power consumption [8][9][10]. However, in today's world of artificial lighting and warmth, people schedule their activities according to the clock rather than the natural cycle of dawn and dusk [7,11]. ...
Objectives. Turkey canceled the Daylight Saving Time (DST) transition and started the permanent clock application. Considering the effect of this new regulation on working hours, it has been examined whether there is a relationship with the increase in the number of work accidents in shifts. Methods. Data on work accidents was obtained from the Republic of Turkey Social Security Institution (SSI) filed between 2011 and 2020. We estimate accident rates with using Poisson regression and log-linear models as a function of a variety of date-based factors. Results. The results show that DST transition is effective (ineffective in terms of gender) on changes in the number of work accidents. With statistical analyzes, the hour distribution of work accidents was made and calculated, indicating at which hour the work accidents occurred the most, using the work accident frequency rate. The number of prevented work accidents was calculated 286,793 and how Turkey would be affected. Conclusion. The findings from these studies suggest that the cancellation of DST transition does not have a negative effect on the incidence of work accidents in Turkey, on the contrary, this practice also serves the purpose of preventing work accidents.
... This paper adds to a thread of literature on the adverse effects of the Spring DST transition. In addition to the findings here, evidence suggests it does not accomplish its primary objective of saving energy (Momani et al., 2009;Krarti & Hajiah, 2011;Kotchen & Grant, 2011;Sexton & Beatty, 2014); it increases automobile crashes by 5.6% (Smith, 2016); and it increases robberies by 7%; among other potentially negative outcomes. Interestingly, there is some evidence for positive effect of ambient light exposure around the Fall transition. ...
This paper estimates the impact of Daylight Saving Time (DST) on deaths from suicide and substance abuse in the United States. Using Multiple Cause‐of‐Death Mortality Data from the National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics from 1979 to 1988, the effect is identified in two ways: a regression discontinuity design that exploits discrete time changes in the Spring and Fall; and a fixed effects model that uses a policy change and a switching mechanism that introduces random variation to DST's start and end dates. This is one of the first attempts to estimate the impact of DST on deaths due to suicide and substance abuse and the first to use either identification strategy. The results from both methods suggest that the sleep disruptions during the Spring transition cause the suicide rate to rise by 6.25 percent and the death rate from suicide and substance abuse combined to increase by 6.59 percent directly after the time change. There is no evidence for any change in these outcomes during the Fall transition. The contrasting results from Spring to Fall suggest the entire effect can be attributed to disruptions in sleep patterns rather than changes in ambient light exposure.
... We controlled for these variables due to the role that unemployment and financial conditions, [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] as well as poverty, [44] safety nets, [15,45] age [46] and gender [15,16] may play in suicides. We also included monthyear dummies (as often used in the literature) [47][48][49][50] due to suicide seasonality and the fact that suicides have been demonstrating an upward yearly trend in the US. ε it is the error term. ...
Previous studies have found an association between recessions and increased rates of suicide. In the present study we widened the focus to examine the association between economic uncertainty and suicides. We used monthly suicide data from the US at the State level from 2000 to 2017 and combined them with the monthly economic uncertainty index. We followed a panel data econometric approach to study the association between economic uncertainty and suicide, controlling for unemployment and other indicators. Economic uncertainty is positively associated with suicide when controlling for unemployment [coeff: 8.026; 95% CI: 3.692–12.360] or for a wider range of economic and demographic characteristics [coeff: 7.478; 95% CI: 3.333–11.623]. An increase in the uncertainty index by one percent is associated with an additional 11–24.4 additional monthly suicides in the US. Economic uncertainty is likely to act as a trigger, which underlines the impulsive nature of some suicides. This highlights the importance of providing access to suicide prevention interventions (e.g. hotlines) during periods of economic uncertainty.
... The principal reason for introducing daylight saving time (DST) is projected energy savings, particularly for electric lighting (e.g. [33]). Our study suggests that the policy seems to have scarce effect because the dummy associated with DST is slightly significant (and negative) only for the two largest zones: North and South. ...
This paper deals especially with a two-stage approach to forecasting hourly electricity demand by using a linear regression model with serially correlated residuals. Firstly, ordinary least squares are applied to estimate a linear regression model based on purely deterministic predictors (essentially, polynomials in time and calendar dummy variables). In the case wherein the regression residuals are not a white noise series, a SARMA (seasonal autoregressive moving average) process is applied to the estimated regression residuals. After examining a vast set of potential representations, the stationary and invertible process associated with the smaller Akaike information criterion and the smaller Ljung–Box statistic is selected. Secondly, two sets of instrumental predictors are added to the current model: the estimated residuals of the first regression model plus the estimated errors of the chosen SARMA process. The new regression model is estimated by again using ordinary least squares, but taking advantage of the fact that the new regressors eliminate serial correlation. Practical issues in points and interval forecasting are illustrated with reference to nine-day ahead prediction performance for short-term electric loads in Italy.
... Yet, over a quarter of the world population is subjected to the DST shift twice a year, which disrupts both human work and rest schedules and possibly their circadian clock rhythms [2]. DST shifts have been shown to have a measurable effect on electric power consumption, although not necessarily in the intended direction [3,4]. Previous studies have demonstrated that the spring DST shift causes noticeable alterations in human behavior in terms of wakingup time and self-reported alertness, [5] a significant increase in fatal traffic accidents (up to 30 percent on the day of commencing DST), [6] a short-term rise in workplace injuries (5.7 percent after the spring DST shift as employees sleep 40 minutes less on average), [7] and elevated rates of acute myocardial infarction (up by about 3.9 percent) [8]. ...
The transition to daylight saving time (DST) is beneficial for energy conservation but at the same time it has been reported to increase the risk of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular problems. Here, we evaluate the effect of the DST shift on a whole spectrum of diseases—an analysis we hope will be helpful in weighing the risks and benefits of DST shifts. Our study relied on a population-based, cross-sectional analysis of the IBM Watson Health MarketScan insurance claim dataset, which incorporates over 150 million unique patients in the US, and the Swedish national inpatient register, which incorporates more than nine million unique Swedes. For hundreds of sex- and age-specific diseases, we assessed effects of the DST shifts forward and backward by one hour in spring and autumn by comparing the observed and expected diagnosis rates after DST shift exposure. We found four prominent, elevated risk clusters, including cardiovascular diseases (such as heart attacks), injuries, mental and behavioral disorders, and immune-related diseases such as noninfective enteritis and colitis to be significantly associated with DST shifts in the United States and Sweden. While the majority of disease risk elevations are modest (a few percent), a considerable number of diseases exhibit an approximately ten percent relative risk increase. We estimate that each spring DST shift is associated with negative health effects–with 150,000 incidences in the US, and 880,000 globally. We also identify for the first time a collection of diseases with relative risks that appear to decrease immediately after the spring DST shift, enriched with infections and immune system-related maladies. These diseases’ decreasing relative risks might be driven by the documented boosting effect of a short-term stress (such as that experienced around the spring DST shift) on the immune system.
... However, the large majority of DST studies have focused on spring DST. They have shown that springing forward in time affects crime rates (Doleac and Sanders, 2015), traffic accidents (Hicks et al., 1998;Smith, 2016), energy demand (Kotchen and Grant, 2011;Sexton and Beatty, 2014), as well as our well-being (Kountouris and Remoundou, 2004;Kuehnle and Wunder, 2016). A large number of medical and psychology studies have also investigated the relationship between daylight saving time and sleep (for a review see Harrison, 2013a) 1 . ...
Chronic sleep deprivation is a significant and understudied public health issue. Using BRFSS survey data from the United States and an administrative census of 160 million hospital admissions from Germany, we study the causal relationship between sleep and health. Our empirical approach exploits the end of Daylight Saving Time in a quasi-experimental setting on a daily basis. First, we show that setting clocks back by one hour in the middle of the night significantly extends people’s sleep duration. In addition, we find significant health benefits via sharp reductions in hospital admissions. For example, hospitalizations due to cardiovascular diseases decrease by ten per day, per one million population. Using an event study approach, we find that the effects persists for four days after the time shift. Admissions due to heart attacks and injuries also exhibit the same characteristic four-day decrease. We also provide a series of checks to rule out alternative, non-sleep related, mechanisms. Finally, we discuss the benefits of additional sleep for the sleep-deprived as well as policy implications for nudging people to sleep more. Our findings illustrate the importance of public policies that target sleep deprivation.
... or air-conditioning (Kellogg & Wolff, 2008;Momani, Yatim, & Ali, 2009;Krarti & Hajiah, 2011;Kotchen & Grant, 2011;Sexton & Beatty, 2014). 1 In addition, several studies indicate that the transition in and out of DST causes disruptions in the circadian rhythm and adversely affects the duration and quality of sleep (Lahti et al., 2006;Kantermann et al., 2007), which in turn may have unintended negative side effects in various (economic) dimensions other than energy saving. These negative short-term effects range from lower general well-being (Kountouris & Remoundou, 2014) and life satisfaction (Kuehnle & Wunder, 2016), decreases in stock market returns (Kamstra, Kramer, & Levi, 2000) and students' performance (Gaski & Sagarin, 2011) to higher risk of work injuries (Barnes & Wagner, 2009;Lahti et al., 2011), acute myocardial infarction (Janszky & Ljung, 2008;Jiddou et al., 2013;Toro, Tigre, & Sampaio, 2015), suicides (Berk et al., 2008), and fatal road accidents (Varughese & Allen, 2001;Sullivan & Flannagan, 2002;Sood & Ghosh, 2007;Smith, 2016). 2 While this literature provides evidence in favor of abolishing the yearly ritual of changing the clocks twice, at least from a short-term perspective, it is less clear for which time regime, DST or standard winter time, a society eventually should adopt. ...
In this paper, we analyze the effect of light conditions on road accidents and estimate the long run consequences of different time regimes for road safety. Identification is based on variation in light conditions induced by differences in sunrise and sunset times across space and time. We estimate that darkness causes annual costs of more than £500 million in Great Britain. By setting daylight saving time year-round 8 percent of these costs could be saved. Thus, focusing solely on the short run costs related to the transition itself underestimates the total costs of the current time regime.
... DST commonly lasts from spring to autumn and changes the social clock so that we simply start the social day 1 h earlier relative to the sun clock. DST was thought to save energy because people would use less electric light in the evenings (Kotchen and Grant, 2011;Mirza and Bergland, 2011). Although this turned out not to be true (Aries and Newsham, 2008), DST is still kept to allow people to start work earlier by social clock time in summer. ...
Local and national governments around the world are currently considering the elimination of the annual switch to and from Daylight Saving Time (DST). As an international organization of scientists dedicated to studying circadian and other biological rhythms, the Society for Research on Biological Rhythms (SRBR) engaged experts in the field to write a Position Paper on the consequences of choosing to live on DST or Standard Time (ST). The authors take the position that, based on comparisons of large populations living in DST or ST or on western versus eastern edges of time zones, the advantages of permanent ST outweigh switching to DST annu- ally or permanently. Four peer reviewers provided expert critiques of the initial submission, and the SRBR Executive Board approved the revised manuscript as a Position Paper to help educate the public in their evaluation of current legislative actions to end DST.
... They point to energy savings and increased physical activity, but these assertions have been debunked. 2,3 They point to lower crime rates, 4 but is this alone enough to warrant tampering with our biological clocks? There must be some other reason. ...
... As DST is a contentious topic and affects people's lives, it has generated a fair amount of academic research. Economists have taken the lead, studying the effects of DST on energy usage (Kotchen and Grant 2011), safety (Coate and Markowitz 2004;Sullivan and Flanigan 2002;Coren 1996aCoren , 1996b, health (Kantermann et al 2007), economic coordination (Hammermesh, Myers, and Pocock 2008), and stock market performance Levi 2000, 2002;Pinegar 2002). Political scientists, on the other hand, have virtually ignored the political aspects of DST, such as the determinants of DST legislation. ...
Objective
Daylight Saving Time (DST) is a government policy regulating the timing of daylight during the summer months. While DST's existence is taken for granted in modern American life, the adoption and expansion of the policy was heavily debated, with strong opposition that persists to the present day—a full century after its inception as a World War I energy‐efficiency program. After reviewing the history of DST, we analyze the political economy of congressional vote choice on DST policy.
Method
We analyze votes of members of Congress on all DST‐specific roll calls between 1918 and 1985, assessing whether members voted to expand or reduce DST.
Results
We find that ideology, party, geographic location, and the portion of a constituency made up by farmers all strongly predict member support for adopting and expanding DST—and that each of these effects is durable over time. Digging deeper, we find significant evidence for local representation on DST votes, as constituency‐specific factors are more strongly associated with congressional vote choice than partisanship or general ideological preferences.
Conclusion
Overall, our results provide an original empirical assessment of the factors that drove the adoption and revision of a contentious and significant government policy that endures today.
... There is no detailed examination of the way users sacrifice comfort levels, however, from the energy conservation studies; fulfilling basic needs can be interpreted to mean the use of natural energy such as daylight, window opening. The studies explained that, without operating installed light, or air-conditioning, the users found their environment already comfortable enough for their daily activities [68,[82][83][84][85][86] . ...
Towards sustainable universities, energy consumption behaviour is one of the several matters that require attention by the facilities manager. Information on energy consumption behaviour helps on developing a good strategy for energy management. Therefore, this chapter proposes an energy consumption behavioural assessment of Malaysian universities students through an ‘energy culture’ framework. It is an approach that behaviour seen as an amalgam of ‘material culture’, ‘cognitive norms’, and ‘energy practice’. The components interact together to produce a self-reinforcing system that becomes characterized by strong habits. The objective is to recognize the potential of the framework for assessing energy consumption behaviour. It recommended that energy culture framework to be practices as basis for assessing the energy consumption behaviour. Furthermore, the assessment requires further exploration in the future where several issues were emerged other than theoretical mainframe issue.
... This weaker finding is consistent with the lack of evidence that the fall return to standard time results in any discernable sleep gain (Harrison, 2013), which may explain the previous studies that have examined solely the springtime shift, and ignored the fall switch (Kotchen & Grant, 2011;D. T. Wagner et al., 2012). ...
Impaired neuropsychological and cognitive functioning are well-understood to be risk factors for antisocial behavior. There are, however, gaps in our knowledge of the etiology and effective treatment of neuropsychological and cognitive deficits. My dissertation examines these questions in a series of three papers. The first paper proposes a serial mediation model wherein neighborhood disadvantage and subsequent impaired neuropsychological functioning represent a partial explanation of the race-antisocial behavior relationship. In a community sample of male and female young adolescents, the hypothesized sequential path accounted for 10.8% of the relationship between race and antisocial behavior. The second paper examines the relationship between sleep and antisocial behavior, which has primarily been examined via correlational or extreme sleep deprivation studies. Using National Incidence-Based Reporting System and city-reported data, this paper exploits the natural experiment of daylight saving time (DST) to examine the effects of a very mild change in sleep on assault rates. The Monday directly following the advent of DST was associated with 3% fewer assaults as compared to the Monday a week later, which we hypothesize may be the result of fatigue. In contrast, we saw 3% more assaults following the return to standard time. The final paper examines a sample of incarcerated male adolescents longitudinally to test whether incarceration results in impaired cognition, and if so, whether a Cognitive Behavioral Therapy/Mindfulness intervention can protect against such impairments. Performance on three measures derived from an emotional go/no-go task significantly worsened from baseline to follow-up, however, two marginally significant time x group interactions suggest mindfulness may be potentially effective in buffering the adverse effects of imprisonment. While many scholars have postulated about adverse psychological effects of incarceration, this is one of the first papers to empirically document such effects. In totality, the proposed dissertation is intended to improve our understanding of the association between cognition and antisocial behavior through examining external and environmental influences on the brain. From a theoretical perspective, findings highlight the need to explore environmental correlates of neuropsychological and cognitive deficits. From an applied and policy perspective, findings indicate potential avenues for individual-level treatment that may positively impact behavior.
... Daylight saving time (DST) is used across most of the USA and Europe and parts of Australia to prolong daylight in summer evenings; it is a contentious policy, often disparaged by the public and media. Implemented during WWI to reduce energy demands, DST may actually increase modern energy usage as people run air conditioners for longer [1]. DST may also interfere with sleep [2], decrease health and well-being [3], and increase traffic fatalities [4] as people struggle to adjust their internal biological clocks [5]. ...
Daylight saving time (DST) could reduce collisions with wildlife by changing the timing of commuter traffic relative to the behaviour of nocturnal animals. To test this idea, we tracked wild koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in southeast Queensland, where koalas have declined by 80% in the last 20 years, and compared their movements with traffic patterns along roads where they are often killed. Using a simple model, we found that DST could decrease collisions with koalas by 8% on weekdays and 11% at weekends, simply by shifting the timing of traffic relative to darkness. Wildlife conservation and road safety should become part of the debate on DST.
... On the other hand, while the fall finding showed a corresponding finding-a mild and short-term sleep gain results in increased assaults-findings are not robust to the falsification analyses as demonstrated by significant findings in almost all of those tests. This weaker finding is consistent with the lack of evidence that the fall return to standard time results in any discernable sleep gain (Harrison 2013), which may explain the previous studies that have examined solely the springtime shift, and ignored the fall switch (Kotchen and Grant 2011;Wagner et al. 2012). It is possible that the results are simply more long-lasting in the fall, but it seems unlikely considering most of the DST literature suggests less of a significant change in sleep in the fall than in the spring (it is easier for people to phase delay than phase advance) (Kantermann et al. 2007). ...
Objectives
The purpose of this study was to test the effect of a mild, short-term sleep loss/gain on assault rates. Methods
Using National Incidence Based Reporting System data and city-reported data from Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles, we calculated the difference in assault rates on the Monday immediately following daylight saving time (DST) as compared to the Monday a week later using a Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator model. The same analyses were performed to examine effects of the return to standard time in the fall. We employed several falsification checks. ResultsThere were 2.9% fewer (95% CI: –4.2%, −1.6%, p < 0.0001) assaults immediately following DST, when we lose an hour, as compared to a week later. In contrast, there was a 2.8% rise in assaults immediately following the return to standard time, when an hour is gained, as compared to a week later (95% CI: 1.5%, 4.2%, p < 0.0001). Multiple falsification analyses suggest the spring findings to be robust, while the evidence to support the fall findings is weaker. Conclusions
This study suggests that mild and short-term changes in sleep do significantly affect rates of assault. Specifically, there is support for the theory that mild sleepiness possibly associated with an hour loss of sleep results in reduced assaults. This contradicts the simple inverse relationship currently suggested by most of the correlational literature. This study and the mixed findings presented by experimental studies indicate that measurement variability of both sleep and aggression may result in conflicting findings.
... Various recent studies challenge that DST saves energy (e.g. Kellogg and Wol , 2008;Aries and Newsham, 2008;Kotchen and Grant, 2011;Sexton and Bea y, 2014). Another strand of research discusses whether the shi to DST increases tra c and work-related accidents (Hicks et al., 1983;Barnes and Wagner, 2009) or not (e.g. ...
We use international assessment data on more than 22,000 students from six European countries to investigate whether the transition into daylight saving time affects elementary students’ performance in low-stakes tests in the week after the time change. Exploiting the time shift as a natural experiment, we find that the effect of changing the clock is very small in magnitude and not statistically significant in all three testing areas (math, science, and reading). Therefore, our results challenge the prevailing public opinion that daylight saving time should be abandoned because of its detrimental effects on schoolchildren’s performance.
... Arizona has not observed DST since 1967 and will be utilized later as a placebo test. There were both DST and time zone policy changes in Indiana (see Kotchen and Grant 2011), which complicates the identification strategy. It is worth noting that the quantity variable is only included in estimation equations that are restricted to more than 1 item being purchased. ...
... However, the large majority of DST studies have focused on spring DST. They have shown that springing forward in time affects crime rates (Doleac and Sanders, 2015), traffic accidents (Hicks et al., 1998;Smith, 2016), energy demand (Kotchen and Grant, 2011;Sexton and Beatty, 2014), as well as our well-being (Kountouris and Remoundou, 2004;Kuehnle and Wunder, 2016). A large number of medical and psychology studies have also investigated the relationship between daylight saving time and sleep (for a review see Harrison, 2013a) 1 . ...
... Similar to jet lag experienced after travel, DST can therefore significantly impact physiological and behavioral functioning as a result of the circadian disruption it produces [30]. While debates around DST have mostly focused on economic advantages [34], a number of studies have pointed out the resultant increased risk of driving accidents [59], deterioration in academic performance [21], and fragmented rest-activity cycles [35]. These issues can potentially be attributed to difficulties our internal circadian clocks experience in adjusting to the sudden social clock change. ...
Throughout the day, our alertness levels change and our cognitive performance fluctuates. The creation of technology that can adapt to such variations requires reliable measurement with ecological validity. Our study is the first to collect alertness data in the wild using the clinically validated Psychomotor Vigilance Test. With 20 participants over 40 days, we find that alertness can oscillate approximately 30% depending on time and body clock type and that Daylight Savings Time, hours slept, and stimulant intake can influence alertness as well. Based on these findings, we develop novel methods for unobtrusively and continuously assessing alertness. In estimating response time, our model achieves a root-mean-square error of 80.64 milliseconds, which is significantly lower than the 500ms threshold used as a standard indicator of impaired cognitive ability. Finally, we discuss how such real-time detection of alertness is a key first step towards developing systems that are sensitive to our biological variations.
... Various recent studies challenge that DST saves energy (e.g. Kellogg and Wol , 2008;Aries and Newsham, 2008;Kotchen and Grant, 2011;Sexton and Bea y, 2014). Another strand of research discusses whether the shi to DST increases tra c and work-related accidents (Hicks et al., 1983;Barnes and Wagner, 2009) or not (e.g. ...
... The real-time pricing method is one of the best appropriate approaches for peak-shaving and load-shifting, which was investigated in [4][5][6][7]. Doostizadeh and Ghasemi in [8] determined real-time prices by solving an optimization problem based on maximizing the benefit of the energy provider, while [9][10][11] used the detailed data of residential consumers to investigate the effect of daylight savings time on electrical energy consumption. In [12] it was also shown that in the electrical energy market in Sweden, consumers had shifted their consumption to non-peak periods in accordance with the real-time pricing signals. ...
The aim of this work is to analyze and describe the interaction between a residential consumer and the power network. With the growth of power systems and the advent of new energy sources, such as solar energy, it seems to be more essential to investigate how the network and the consumer can interact with each other to achieve more financial benefits. To do that, a static game is defined considering the fact that there is a direct relationship between the amount of load shifted by the consumer and the incentive offered by the network. It is concluded that the Nash equilibrium of this game is when the consumer decides to cooperate with the network during non-peak hours. Finally, a simple optimization problem is defined in which both the consumer and power network try to achieve better financial benefit considering the fact that in the real world the total load of a typical residential consumer can be divided into the flexible and inflexible parts. A time-varying pricing scenario as well as time-of-use and constant pricing scenarios is used. It is concluded that the more convenient scenario for the consumer is the time-of-use scenario, whereas the power network would prefer to use a dynamic one as it leads to more financial benefit.
... In particular, international experience has shown that the effect of applying DST is at least questionable, because some studies show that the effect is practically nil ( [3,4,5]). Cases have also been reported in which the effect has been negative, i.e., applying the DST has increased the consumption of electricity instead of reducing it, which is its purpose [6]. Considering these arguments, it is reasonable to question whether the application of this policy is still a valid alternative with the purpose of reducing the consumption of electricity. ...
Since 1970 Chile has had a Daylight Saving Time (DST) policy in order to reduce residential electricity consumption in the country. The time change was set for the first time by executive decree in 1970, and since that date it was applied every year without great changes until 2010. Since then, and to date, decrees have been set in order to increase the duration of the DST, arguing that there are reasons associated with energy savings that justify the extension of the measure that has been adopted by the authority in recent years. In the present study the impact of the application of DST in terms of decreased household electricity consumption is analyzed using two complementary methods, one based on a heuristic approach and the other using an econometric model. The results indicate that there is indeed a marginally small reduction in residential electricity consumption, although these results are not homogeneous throughout the country.
... Although this hour may seem trivial, this yearly removal of an hour is also disruptive to sleep (Barnes & Wagner, 2009;Lahti, Leppamaki, Lonnqvist, & Partonen, 2006;Kantermann, Juda, Merrow, & Roenneberg, 2007), and it has been empirically linked to a spike in workplace injuries (Barnes & Wagner, 2009), increased cyberloafing (Wagner, Barnes, Lim, & Ferris, 2012), hindered moral decision making (Barnes, Gunia, & Wagner, 2015), increased heart attacks ( Janszky & Ljung, 2008), increased auto accidents (Coren, 1996), and even a drop of $60 billion in stock prices (Kamstra, Kramer, & Levi, 2002). Moreover, daylight saving time actually increases energy costs (Kotchen & Grant, 2011), which is contrary to the original goal of saving energy costs. ...
The schedules that Americans live by are not consistent with healthy sleep patterns. In addition, poor access to educational and treatment aids for sleep leaves people engaging in behavior that is harmful to sleep and forgoing treatment for sleep disorders. This has created a sleep crisis that is a public health issue with broad implications for cognitive outcomes, mental health, physical health, work performance, and safety. New public policies should be formulated to address these issues. We draw from the scientific literature to recommend the following: establishing national standards for middle and high school start times that are later in the day, stronger regulation of work hours and schedules, eliminating daylight saving time, educating the public regarding the impact of electronic media on sleep, and improving access to ambulatory in-home diagnostic testing for sleep disorders.
... There is no detail explanation about sacrificing comfort level, however, from the energy conservation studies fulfilling basic needs can be interpreted as more use of natural environment energy such as daylight, window opening, etc in daily life. The studies explained that, without operating installed light, or airconditioning , the environment already comfort their daily activities (Brian A., 1997; Poortinga, et al. 2003; Rijal, et al. 2007; Kotchen & Grant, 2008; Aries & Newsham, 2008; Rosenberg & Wood, 2010). Education level differences also differentiate the " High " and " Low " energy user. ...
Towards sustainable campus of higher education institutions (HEIs), energy consumption behaviour is one of the several matters that require attention by the facilities manager. Information on energy consumption behaviour helps on developing a good strategy for energy management. The purpose of this study is to assess energy consumption behaviour among Malaysian HEIs student. This study has an objective to determine energy consumption patterns and analyse the factors that influence the pattern. The ‘energy culture’ framework consolidated with ‘centrographic’ approach and econometric analysis used to strengthen the findings. A self-administrated survey carried out involving 158 respondents in Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor. There are three types of energy use among students in HEIs namely, ‘high’, ‘low’, and ‘conserve’. The ‘device’, ‘activities’ and ‘building regulation’ are the influence factors on the pattern of energy use.
... However, several recent studies have heavily challenged the energy conservation argument. They find that energy consumption may actually (slightly) increase as a result of DST, mostly because the savings in electricity for electric light are overcompensated by 3 increases in energy consumption for heating and other electronic devices such as air conditioning (Kellogg and Wolff, 2008;Momani et al. 2009;Krarti and Hajiah, 2011;Kotchen and Grant, 2011;Sexton et al. 2014). ...
O horário de verão é uma política de redução do consumo de energia instituída no Brasil todos os anos a partir da segunda semana de outubro. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar os possíveis efeitos da política do horário de verão sobre os acidentes nas rodovias federais brasileiras. Os dados de ocorrência de acidentes da polícia rodoviária federal utilizados compreendem o período de 2007 a 2013, agregados por dia e hora para cada Estado brasileiro. Primeiramente foram apreciados os efeitos a curto prazo sobre o número de acidentes na transição de entrada do horário de verão nos estados que sofreram a intervenção, por meio do modelo de Regressão Descontinua. A transição para o horário de verão, aproximadamente os primeiros vinte e quatro dias, reduzem o risco de acidentes nas rodovias federais através da realocação de uma hora de luminosidade da manhã para a tarde. Logo após foi mensurada a duração do efeito da mesma política a longo prazoem todos os estados, por meio do modelo de Diferenças em Diferenças. Ambos os modelos revelaram que a aplicação da política do horário de verão apresentou evidências na redução sobre o número de acidentes nas rodovias federais brasileiras. A fim de complementar a análise, foram realizados testes de robustez que determinaram os efeitos de tendências anteriores, Estados com maior risco de acidentes, decomposição em horas de luminosidade e período final do horário de verão. Os resultados apontaram que os Estados em que a política do horário de verão foi utilizada os acidentes sofreram redução de 10% (dez por cento).
Unemployment rate forecasting has become a particularly promising
domain of comparative studies in recent years because it is a major issue facing
the economic forecasting process. Since the time-series data are rarely pure linear
or nonlinear, obviously, sometimes contain both components jointly. Therefore, this
study introduces a hybrid model that combines two commonly used models, namely,
the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable (ARMAX)
model and nonlinear Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
with exogenous variable (GARCHX) model whose conditional variance follows
a General error distribution (GED). That is, build a hybrid (ARMAX-GARCHXGED)
model employed in modeling bivariate time-series data of the unemployment
rate and exchange rate. Usually, the forecasting performance evaluation based on
the common classical forecast accuracy criteria such as Root Mean Squared Error
(RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
have some specific limitations in application to choosing the optimal forecasting
model. Therefore, in this paper, we employed a modern evaluation criterion based
on the methodology advocated by Diebold–Mariano (DM) known as (DM test) as a
new criterion for evaluation based on statistical hypothesis tests. This (DM test) has
been applied in this study to distinguish the significant differences in forecasting accuracy
between hybrid (ARMAX-GARCHX-GED) and individual ARMAX models.
From the case study results and according to DM-test it is observed that the differences
between the forecasting performances of models are significant and the hybrid
model (ARMAX-GARCHX-GED) is more efficient than the individual competitive
ARMAX model for the unemployment rate forecasting.
The original rationale for the adoption of daylight saving time (DST) was to conserve energy; however, the effects of DST on energy consumption are questionable or negligible. Conversely, there is substantial evidence that DST transitions have the cumulative effect on sleep deprivation with its adverse health effects. In light of current evidence, the European Commission in 2018 decided that biannual clock change in Europe would be abolished. Current indirect evidence supports the adoption of perennial standard time, which aligns best with the human circadian system and has the potential to produce benefits for public health and safety.
Using data provided by the Indiana State Department of Vital Statistics, this study examines the mortality effects of daylight saving time observance using the April 2006 expansion of daylight saving time in Indiana as a natural experiment. The expansion of daylight saving time to all Indiana counties lowered the average mortality rate in the treatment counties during the months in which daylight saving time was observed. Stratified demographic analyses indicate that daylight saving time reduced mortality among males, females, and whites, but only among those aged 65 years and older. Specific-cause analysis indicates that daylight saving time lowered mortality primarily via reduced cancer mortality. The results of this study suggest a novel solar UVB-vitamin D mechanism could be responsible for the reduction in treatment county mortality following the expansion of daylight saving time in Indiana.
en The primary rationale for daylight saving time (DST) has long been energy savings. Whether it achieves this goal, however, remains a subject of debate. Recent studies, examining only one location at a time, have shown DST to increase, decrease or leave overall energy demand unchanged. Rather than concluding the effect is ambiguous, this paper is the first to test for heterogeneous regional effects based on differences in sun times (natural factors) and waking hours (societal factors). Using a rich hourly data set and quasi‐experimental methods applied across Canadian provinces, this paper rationalizes the differing results, finding region‐specific effects consistent with differences in sun times and waking hours. DST increases electricity demand in regions with late sunrises and early waking hours.
Résumé
fr Les économies d'énergie sont la principale justification du passage à l’heure d’été. Néanmoins, la réalisation de cet objectif est sujet à débat: les études récentes basées sur une seule zone géographique ont obtenu des résultats contradictoire sur l’impact de l’heure d’été sur la demande d’énergie. Cet article est la première étude à examiner des hétérogénéités locales basées sur l’heure de levé du soleil (naturel) et l’heure de réveil (sociétal). Exploitant des données horaires et utilisant une approche quasi‐expérimentale sur les provinces du Canada, l’étude réconcilie les résultats divergents par des effets locaux compatibles avec les différences de l’heure de levé du soleil et de réveil. L’heure d’été augmente la demande en électricité dans les régions où le soleil se lève tard et les gens se lèvent tôt.
Resumo O horário de verão é adotado no Brasil para melhorar a eficiência energética e a segurança do sistema elétrico interligado. Os estados meridionais tendem a contribuir mais nesse sentido, havendo um limítrofe questionável em estados como Bahia e Tocantins. Explorando o arcabouço de inferência causal de Neyman-Rubin e situações quase-experimentais na Bahia e no Tocantins, o artigo analisa as trajetórias do consumo total de energia elétrica estadual usando diferenças-em-diferenças e controle sintético. Conclui-se que a participação da Bahia gera uma economia energética de até 252 GWh, e que a participação do Tocantins não gera efeitos significativos.
Background: Daylight saving time (DST) has been actively used as a mechanism for energy conservation and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In the case of Argentina, the most recent experiences with DST occurred during the austral summer periods of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, when the policy was finally abandoned. However, the benefits of DST and the size of the (potential) energy savings are still part of an ongoing discussion in a country where energy subsidies imply a heavy fiscal burden. Methodology: Using a difference-in-differences framework that exploits the quasi-experimental nature of the program implementation, we use hourly data for the 2005-2010 period at the province level and estimate the impact of DST on electricity consumption and on peak demand. Results: The application of DST increased total electricity consumption between 0.4% and 0.6%, but decreased aggregate national peak demand between 2.4% and 2.9%. In monetary terms, DST represented extra generation costs of 10.9 and 18 million USD during summers 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, respectively. Finally, the application of DST increased the emissions of air pollutants during those periods. Conclusion: The rationale for DST is questionable. The policy outcomes in terms of energy consumption and energy peak demand seem to go in opposite directions, at least in the latest experience in Argentina. A case-by-case study is the safest way of proceeding, and this paper is a piece of evidence that contributes to an open debate.
In the usual difference in differences (DD), there is a control group that is never treated and a treatment group that is treated at some time point. However, there are DD cases where the control group is always treated (instead of always untreated), which we call ‘DD in reverse (DDR)’. This paper examines how the usual DD identification and estimation procedures change for DDR. As it turns out, DDR estimation can be performed in the same way as DD estimation. In contrast, the identification procedure is quite different, because DDR essentially identifies pre-treatment-period effects, whereas DD identifies post-treatment-period effects. An empirical illustration of the effects of a work-hour limit law on actual work hours and wages is provided, where the law is applied to large firms first and then small firms 1 year later in South Korea so that in the second year, the large firms constitute the always-treated control group and the small firms constitute the treatment group. We find that the law raised South Korean workers’ well-being, as their work hours decreased while their real weekly wage increased.
This article explores the effects of transition to daylight saving time (DST) on economically relevant behavioural measures - cognitive performance and risk-taking behaviour. Using a unique quasi-experimental design, we exploit the exogenous 'treatment' that the New South Wales residents are subjected to when their clock time is moved forward by an hour relative to the Queensland in springtime. The participants in our study are homogeneous with similar demographic and socio-economic conditions, which allows suitable comparison of the affected versus unaffected individuals over time. The results suggest that exposure to the DST transition does not significantly impact cognitive performance or risk-taking behaviour.
Daylight saving time (DST) affects the lives of more than 1.6 billion people worldwide, with energy saving being the original rationale for its implementation. This study takes advantage of natural experiment data from September 2006 to March 2013 in Western Australia in which DST was observed from December 2006 to March 2009, to estimate the effect of DST on electricity demand. Using the difference-in-differences (DD) approach, we find that DST has little effect on overall electricity demand and electricity generation costs. However, it has a strong redistributional effect by reducing electricity demand substantially in the late afternoon and early evening. This redistributional effect of DST may be of particular interest for policymakers who are interested in controlling high demand and the short term energy market price.
An assessment of potential energy saving and of alternative sources energy using in the industry was carried out in order to highlight the most promising areas of energy saving in the industry. The reserves of industrial enterprises were identified on: waste recycling technologies of its own production, buying and implementation of energy-saving equipment, as well as interaction with the plant for the integrated processing of municipal solid waste. The proposed approach to the assessment of the energy saving potential is realized on the example of the metallurgical industry.
We conduct a benefit-cost analysis of a relicensing agreement for two hydroelectric dams in Michigan. The agreement changed daily conditions from peaking to run-of-river flows. We consider three categories of costs and benefits: producer costs of adapting electricity production to the new time profile of hydroelectric output; benefits of reductions in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions; and benefits of improved recreational fishing. The best estimates suggest that the aggregate benefits are more than twice as large as the producer costs. The conceptual and empirical methods provide a template for investigating the effects of an environmental constraint on hydroelectric dams.
To the Editor: It has become increasingly clear that insufficient sleep and disrupted circadian rhythms are a major public health problem. For instance, in 1988 the cost of sleep-related accidents exceeded $56 billion and included 24,318 deaths and 2,474,430 disabling injuries.1 Major disasters, including the nuclear accident at Chernobyl, the Exxon Valdez oil spill, and the destruction of the space shuttle Challenger, have been linked to insufficient sleep, disrupted circadian rhythms, or both on the part of involved supervisors and staff.2,3 It has been suggested that as a society we are chronically sleep-deprived4 and that small additional losses of . . .
Records of all accidental deaths in the USA for a 3-yr. period suggest that the minimal sleep loss associated with the spring shift to Daylight Savings Time produces a short-term increase of the likelihood of accidental death, while the fall shift has little effect.
Summer Time is a convention in which clocks are uniformly set one hour or more ahead of standard time to provide more daylight in the evenings during late spring, summer, and early fall. The main purpose of Summer Time is to make better use of daylight so that it more closely corresponds to our normal daily activities and thus saves energy. Japan is currently not observing Summer Time. This study thus investigated the feasibility of the energy saving potential of Summer Time/Double Summer Time from the perspective of household lighting in Japan and the optimum implementation period. The study found that both the Summer Time and Double Summer Time could reduce household lighting energy consumption, while the magnitude of energy saving potential of Double Summer Time is higher compared to Summer Time. It was also indicated that April–September is the optimum implementation period of Summer Time/Double Summer Time in Japan, from the perspective of household lighting. In terms of geographical location, under Double Summer Time, the household lighting energy saving ratio of the northern Japan regions is higher compared to the southern region. However, under Summer Time, the energy saving ratio of the southern Japan region is significantly higher.
This study is an evaluation of the effect of using or not using daylight saving time on a residential building's HVAC and lighting energy consumption. Daylight saving time is the practice of shifting clock time ahead by one hour. The well-verified and robust hour-by-hour simulation code DOE-2.1 E is used to predict a residence's annual energy consumption at 224 locations in the US. The quantities tracked are annual electrical energy use, electrical cost, natural gas quantity, natural gas cost and total energy cost. The house used in the study is an existing structure in Lawrence, KS, and its actual characteristics, operation schedules and utility bills are used in the preparation of the energy model. The results show that for this residence, which is somewhat typical of US houses, total energy consumption is just slightly increased on average when summer daylight saving time is used instead of standard time year-round. Other combinations of standard and daylight saving time are also examined.
Several countries are considering using daylight saving time (DST) as a tool for energy conservation and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and the United States extended DST in 2007 with the goal of reducing electricity consumption. This paper assesses DST's impact on electricity demand by examining a quasi-experiment in which parts of Australia extended DST in 2000 to facilitate the Sydney Olympics. Using detailed panel data and a difference-in-difference-in-difference framework, we show that the extension did not reduce overall electricity consumption, but did cause a substantial intraday shift in demand consistent with activity patterns that are tied to the clock rather than sunrise and sunset.
Daylight, television schedules, and time zones can alter timing and induce temporal coordination of economic activities. With the American Time Use Survey for 2003-2004 and data from Australia for 1992, we show that television schedules and the locations of time zones affect the timing of market work and sleep, with differences in timing being generated partly by returns to coordination with other agents. The responsiveness to time zone differences is greatest among workers in industries in national markets. An exogenous shock resulting from an area's nonadherence to daylight saving time leads its residents to alter work schedules to coordinate with people elsewhere. (c) 2008 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved..
Market productivity is often greater, and leisure and other household activities more enjoyable, when people perform them simultaneously. Beyond pointing out the positive externalities of synchronicity, economists have not attempted to identify exogenous determinants of timing. We develop a theory illustrating conditions under which synchronicity will vary and identify three factors %u2014 the amount of daylight, the timing of television programming, and differences in time zones %u2014 that can alter timing. Using the American Time Use Survey for 2003 and 2004, we first show that an exogenous shock to time in one area due to non-adherence to daylight-saving time leads its residents to alter their work schedules to continue coordinating their activities with those of people elsewhere. With time use data from Australia, we also demonstrate the same response to a similar shock there. We then show that both television timing and the benefits of coordinating across time zones in the U.S. generally affect the timing of market work and sleep, the two most time-consuming activities people undertake. While these impacts do not differ greatly by people's demographic characteristics, workers in industries where we would expect more coordination outside of their local areas are more responsive to the effects of time zones.