Conference PaperPDF Available

Toward open science at the European scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for integrated environmental modelling

Authors:
  • ¹ European Commission, Joint Research Centre (external consultant, ARCADIA SIT) | ² Maieutike Research Initiative
  • Coillte Teoranta

Abstract

Excerpt: Interfacing science and policy raises challenging issues when large spatial-scale (regional, continental, global) environmental problems need transdisciplinary integration within a context of modelling complexity and multiple sources of uncertainty. This is characteristic of science-based support for environmental policy at European scale, and key aspects have also long been investigated by European Commission transnational research. Approaches (either of computational science or of policy-making) suitable at a given domain-specific scale may not be appropriate for wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) and corresponding policy-making. In WSTMe, the characteristic heterogeneity of available spatial information and complexity of the required data-transformation modelling (D-TM) appeal for a paradigm shift in how computational science supports such peculiarly extensive integration processes. In particular, emerging wide-scale integration requirements of typical currently available domain-specific modelling strategies may include increased robustness and scalability along with enhanced transparency and reproducibility. This challenging shift toward open data and reproducible research (open science) is also strongly suggested by the potential - sometimes neglected - huge impact of cascading effects of errors within the impressively growing interconnection among domain-specific computational models and frameworks. Concise array-based mathematical formulation and implementation (with array programming tools) have proved helpful in supporting and mitigating the complexity of WSTMe when complemented with generalized modularization and terse array-oriented semantic constraints. This defines the paradigm of Semantic Array Programming (SemAP) where semantic transparency also implies free software use (although black-boxes - e.g. legacy code - might easily be semantically interfaced). A new approach for WSTMe has emerged by formalizing unorganized best practices and experience-driven informal patterns. The approach introduces a lightweight (non-intrusive) integration of SemAP and geospatial tools - called Geospatial Semantic Array Programming (GeoSemAP). GeoSemAP exploits the joint semantics provided by SemAP and geospatial tools to split a complex D-TM into logical blocks which are easier to check by means of mathematical array-based and geospatial constraints. Those constraints take the form of precondition, invariant and postcondition semantic checks. This way, even complex WSTMe may be described as the composition of simpler GeoSemAP blocks. GeoSemAP allows intermediate data and information layers to be more easily and formally semantically described so as to increase fault-tolerance, transparency and reproducibility of WSTMe. This might also help to better communicate part of the policy-relevant knowledge, often diffcult to transfer from technical WSTMe to the science-policy interface. [...] ► How to cite: ◄ de Rigo, D., Corti, P., Caudullo, G., McInerney, D., Di Leo, M., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2013. Toward open science at the European scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for integrated environmental modelling. Geophysical Research Abstracts 15, 13245+. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.155703
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2013 Daniele de Rigo, Paolo Corti, Giovanni Caudullo,
Daniel McInerney, Margherita Di Leo, Jes´us San-Miguel-Ayanz.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
See: http://www.egu2013.eu/abstract_management/license_and_copyright.html
This is the authors’ version of the work. The definitive version is published in the
Vol. 15 of Geophysical Research Abstracts (ISSN 1607-7962) and presented at the
European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013,
Vienna, Austria, 07-12 April 2013
http://www.egu2013.eu/
Cite as:
de Rigo, D., Corti, P., Caudullo, G., McInerney, D., Di Leo, M., San Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2013.
Toward Open Science at the European Scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming
for Integrated Environmental Modelling. Geophys Res Abstr 15,13245+
Authors’ version DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.155703 (FigShare Digital Science)
Toward Open Science at the European Scale:
Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for
Integrated Environmental Modelling
Daniele de Rigo 1,2, Paolo Corti 1,3, Giovanni Caudullo 1, Daniel McInerney 1,
Margherita Di Leo 1, and Jes´us San-Miguel-Ayanz 1
1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability,
Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
2Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione,
Via Ponzio 34/5, I-20133 Milano, Italy
3United Nations World Food Programme,
Via C.G.Viola 68 Parco dei Medici, I-00148 Rome, Italy
Interfacing science and policy raises challenging issues when large spatial-scale (regional, continental,
global) environmental problems need transdisciplinary integration within a context of modelling com-
plexity and multiple sources of uncertainty [1]. This is characteristic of science-based support for envi-
ronmental policy at European scale [1], and key aspects have also long been investigated by European
Commission transnational research [25].
(a)
Geospatial data
X={X1· · · Xn}
(raw, derived information)
=
Remote sensing
different spatial, spectral,
radiometric, temporal resolution
(a.1)
Scattered time series and field observations
e.g. irregular spatial density of sampling (a.2)
Statistics over territorial administrative units
coarse spatial aggregation over irregular
polygons, e.g. NUTS, ISO 3166 - 2, ...
(a.3)
Raster/vectorial derived data
e.g. polygons describing focal
habitat patterns, regular grids of
categorical/numerical variables
(a.4)
...
Parameters of the needed data-transformations θ={θ1· · · θm}(a.5)
1
de Rigo, D., Corti, P., Caudullo, G., McInerney, D., Di Leo, M., San Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2013. Toward Open Science at the European
Scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for Integrated Environmental Modelling. Geophys Res Abstr 15,13245+
Wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment
Approaches (either of computational science or of policy-making) suitable at a given domain-specific
scale may not be appropriate for wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) and
corresponding policy-making [610]. In WSTMe, the characteristic heterogeneity of available spatial
information (a) and complexity of the required data-transformation modelling (D-TM) appeal for a
paradigm shift in how computational science supports such peculiarly extensive integration processes.
In particular, emerging wide-scale integration requirements of typical currently available domain-specific
modelling strategies may include increased robustness and scalability along with enhanced transparency
and reproducibility [1115]. This challenging shift toward open data [16] and reproducible research
[11] (open science) is also strongly suggested by the potential – sometimes neglected – huge impact of
cascading effects of errors [1,14,1719] within the impressively growing interconnection among domain-
specific computational models and frameworks.
From a computational science perspective, transdisciplinary approaches to integrated natural resources
modelling and management (INRMM) [20] can exploit advanced geospatial modelling techniques with
an awesome battery of free scientific software [21,22] for generating new information and knowledge from
the plethora of composite data [2326].
From the perspective of the science-policy interface, INRMM should be able to provide citizens and
policy-makers with a clear, accurate understanding of the implications of the technical apparatus on
collective environmental decision-making [1]. Complexity of course should not be intended as an excuse
for obscurity [2729].
(b)
Array Programming [30]
array based D-TM f(X, θ)
data-dependent
parameters (sub D-TM) θ(X)
array based semantics
=
GNU Octave [31,32] (MATLAB language)
concise support for large complex valued
multidimensional D-TM, sparse matrices,
nested mixed arrays, higher order functions
(b.1)
GNU R [33] (R language)
wide libraries of statistical tests,
data analysis, classification, clustering
(b.2)
GNU Bash [34]
commandline robust and scalable tools
for concise text and file based D-TM,
scripting (sed, grep, awk, GNU Core Utilities, ...)
(b.3)
Mastrave [35,36] (MATLAB language, GNU Bash, )
Semantic Array Programming,
support for array based functional programming
(b.4)
Python [37] (Numpy [38], Scipy [39])
Array-oriented (e.g. geo-layers) Javascript libraries
concise interface with geo-tools (c) and data (a)
(b.5)
...
2
de Rigo, D., Corti, P., Caudullo, G., McInerney, D., Di Leo, M., San Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2013. Toward Open Science at the European
Scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for Integrated Environmental Modelling. Geophys Res Abstr 15,13245+
Geospatial Semantic Array Programming
Concise array-based mathematical formulation and implementation (with array programming tools, see
(b) ) have proved helpful in supporting and mitigating the complexity of WSTMe [4047] when comple-
mented with generalized modularization and terse array-oriented semantic constraints. This defines the
paradigm of Semantic Array Programming (SemAP) [35,36] where semantic transparency also implies
free software use (although black-boxes [12] – e.g. legacy code – might easily be semantically interfaced).
A new approach for WSTMe has emerged by formalizing unorganized best practices and experience-
driven informal patterns. The approach introduces a lightweight (non-intrusive) integration of SemAP
and geospatial tools (c) – called Geospatial Semantic Array Programming (GeoSemAP). GeoSemAP
(d) exploits the joint semantics provided by SemAP and geospatial tools to split a complex D-TM into
logical blocks which are easier to check by means of mathematical array-based and geospatial constraints.
Those constraints take the form of precondition, invariant and postcondition semantic checks. This way,
even complex WSTMe may be described as the composition of simpler GeoSemAP blocks, each of them
structured as (d).
(c)
Geospatial tools
geospatial D-TM,
geospatial semantics
=
Systems for supporting geographic resources analysis
(e.g. scriptable GIS such as GRASS GIS [4850], ... ) (c.1)
Geospatial data abstraction library (GDAL [51]) (c.2)
Geospatial web support
(e.g. with OGC WPS [52]: pyWPS, OpenLayers [53], ... ) (c.3)
Geospatial database support (e.g. scriptable data queries
with PostGIS [54] by using (b.3) [55], ... ) (c.4)
...
3
de Rigo, D., Corti, P., Caudullo, G., McInerney, D., Di Leo, M., San Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2013. Toward Open Science at the European
Scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for Integrated Environmental Modelling. Geophys Res Abstr 15,13245+
geospatial
data (a) X
parameters θ
sub D-TM θ(X)
(extended)
input data
Geo SemAP Geo
(c) (b) (c)
geospatial SemAP geospatial
pre D-TM D-TM post D-TM
geospatial SemAP geospatial
::pre:: ::pre:: ::post::
::inv::
::post::
| {z }
GeoSemAP D-TM block
(extended)
output data
(d)
where
data Data definition is extended to include proper geospatial data
(a), static parameters and sub D-TM – when used as
dynamic (e.g. data-dependent) parameters
sub D-TM Callback (function handle) to e.g. empirical equations,
regression families, metrics/distance functions, ...
::pre:: Semantic pre-conditions
::inv:: Semantic invariants
::post:: Semantic post-conditions
GeoSemAP allows intermediate data and information layers to be more easily and formally semantically
described so as to increase fault-tolerance [17], transparency and reproducibility of WSTMe. This might
also help to better communicate part of the policy-relevant knowledge, often difficult to transfer from
technical WSTMe to the science-policy interface [1,15].
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7
... The system relies on an array of six components which transform input data into intermediate quantities then exploited to estimate the final aggregated index. These conceptual modelling units are here referred as data-transformation modules ( D-TM ) [66,67,68] and belong to two groups: three fuel moisture codes and three fire behaviour indices [16,59]. A detailed description of the D-TM components in the FWI-system and the logics behind their chain of data-transformations may be found in Van Wagner [59], De Groot [16], and the corresponding computational aspects in Van Wagner and Pickett [69], Wang et al. [70], de Rigo [71]. ...
... (SemAP) paradigm [72,73,68] and its geospatial application [67,68]. The array of weather data may be defined as: ...
... In computational science, the architecture of models may be structured in a data-oriented modular way. A D-TM is a conceptual modelling-unit which transforms a set of input data and model parameters into a corresponding set of output data [66,67,68]. In this context, "data" as a concept is extended to include not only physical measurements but also derivative data (typically, derived as output of one or more models) and, as a particular case, the value of model parameters. ...
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Forests cover over a third of the total land area of Europe. In recent years, large forest fires have repeatedly affected Europe, in particular the Mediterranean countries. Fire danger is influenced by weather in the short term, and by climate when considering longer time intervals. In this work, the emphasis is on the direct influence on fire danger of weather and climate. For climate analysis at the continental scale, a daily high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) was considered up to the end of the century, and a mitigation scenario that limits global warming to 2 °C was also assessed. To estimate fire danger, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was used. FWI provides a uniform numerical rating of relative fire potential, by combining the information from daily local temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and precipitation values. The FWI is standardised to consider a reference fuel behaviour irrespective of other factors. It is thus well suited to support harmonised comparisons, to highlight the role of the varying climate in the component of fire danger that is driven by weather. RESULTS. Around the Mediterranean region, climate change will reduce fuel moisture levels from present values, increasing the weather-driven danger of forest fires. Furthermore, areas exhibiting low moisture will extend further northwards from the Mediterranean, and the current area of high fuel moisture surrounding the Alps will decrease in size. Projected declines in moisture for Mediterranean countries are smaller with mitigation that limits global warming to 2 °C, but a worsening is still predicted compared with present. There is a clear north-south pattern of deep fuel moisture variability across Europe in both climate change scenarios. Areas at moderate danger from forest fires are pushed north to central Europe by climate change. Relatively little change is expected in weather-driven fire danger across northern Europe. However, mountain systems show a fast pace of change. ADAPTATION OPTIONS. Key strategies to be considered may include vegetation management to reduce the likelihood of severe fires, as well as fuel treatments to mitigate fire hazard in dry forests. These measures should be adapted to the different forest ecosystems and conditions. Limited, preliminary knowledge covers specific but essential aspects. Evidence suggests that some areas protected for biodiversity conservation may be affected less by forest fires than unprotected areas, despite containing more combustible material. Specific typologies of old-growth forests may be associated with lower fire severity than densely stocked even-aged young stands, and some tree plantations might be more subject to severe fire compared with multi-aged forests. Particular ecosystems and vegetation associations may be better adapted for post-fire recovery, as long as the interval between fires is not too short. Therefore, deepening the understanding of resistance, resilience and habitat suitability of mixtures of forest tree species is recommended. Human activity (accidental, negligent or deliberate) is one of the most common causes of fire. For this reason, the main causes of fire should be minimized, which includes analysing the social and economic factors that lead people to start fires, increasing awareness of the danger, encouraging good behaviour and sanctioning offenders. LIMITATIONS. Bias correction of climate projections is known to be a potential noticeable source of uncertainty in the predicted bioclimatic anomalies to which vegetation is sensitive. In particular, the analysis of fire danger under climate change scenarios may be critically affected by climatic modelling uncertainty. This work did not explicitly model adaptation scenarios for forest fire danger because ecosystem resilience to fire is uneven and its assessment relies on factors that are difficult to model numerically. Furthermore, a component of the proposed climate-based characterization of future wildfire potential impacts may be linked to the current distribution of population, land cover and use in Europe. The future distribution of these factors is likely to be different from now.
... This software essentially provides a platform that interprets scripts into a transparent sequence of operations, and subsequently acts to execute these operations on dynamically defined C++ arrays. Just like geospatial semantic array programming tools such as the Mastrave library (de Rigo et al. 2013), GeoDMS adheres to large-scale modelling and assessment tasks. It has been under development since the inception of Land Use Scanner in the late 1990s . ...
... It is an opensource platform that interprets scripts into a sequence of operations, and executes these operations on dynamically defined C++ arrays. Just like geospatial semantic array programming tools such as the Mastrave library (de Rigo et al. 2013), GeoDMS adheres to large scale modelling and assessment tasks. The major advantages of using GeoDMS for the work presented in this paper are considerable gains in computation speed, reproducibility of modelling steps, flexibility and control over data operations, and straightforward links between various data types such as raster and vector type spatial data. ...
... Array programming has been used for building the architecture for our modelling approach. For mitigating the complexity of trans-disciplinary modelling and the inconsistencies between input data, parameters and output, semantic checks on the processed information and a modularisation of the key parts of the model were introduced following the semantic array programming paradigm (SemAP) [28,29,30]. The proposed architecture (Fig. 2) exploits the geospatial capacities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in order to estimate soil erosion yield (e-RUSLE model). ...
Preprint
Rainfall induced landslides and soil erosion are part of a complex system of multiple interacting processes, and both are capable of significantly affecting sediment budgets. These sediment mass movements also have the potential to significantly impact on a broad network of ecosystems health, functionality and the services they provide. To support the integrated assessment of these processes it is necessary to develop reliable modelling architectures. This paper proposes a semi-quantitative integrated methodology for a robust assessment of soil erosion rates in data poor regions affected by landslide activity. It combines heuristic, empirical and probabilistic approaches. This proposed methodology is based on the geospatial semantic array programming paradigm and has been implemented on a catchment scale methodology using GIS spatial analysis tools and GNU Octave. The integrated data-transformation model relies on a modular architecture, where the information flow among modules is constrained by semantic checks. In order to improve computational reproducibility, the geospatial data transformations implemented in ESRI ArcGis are made available in the free software GRASS GIS. The proposed modelling architecture is flexible enough for future transdisciplinary scenario-analysis to be more easily designed. In particular, the architecture might contribute as a novel component to simplify future integrated analyses of the potential impact of wildfires or vegetation types and distributions, on sediment transport from water induced landslides and erosion.
... It is an open-source platform that interprets scripts into a sequence of operations and executes these operations on dynamically defined C?? arrays. Just like geospatial semantic array programming tools such as the Mastrave library (de Rigo et al. 2013 ), GeoDMS adheres to largescale modelling and assessment tasks. The major advantages of using GeoDMS for the work presented in this paper are considerable gains in computation speed, reproducibility of modelling steps, flexibility and control over data operations and straightforward links between various data types such as raster and vector type spatial data. ...
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This paper introduces a GIS-based model that simulates the geographic expansion of transport networks by several decision-makers with varying objectives. The model progressively adds extensions to a growing network by choosing the most attractive investments from a limited choice set. Attractiveness is defined as a function of variables in which revenue and broader societal benefits may play a role and can be based on empirically underpinned parameters that may differ according to private or public interests. The choice set is selected from an exhaustive set of links and presumably contains those investment options that best meet private operator’s objectives by balancing the revenues of additional fare against construction costs. The investment options consist of geographically plausible routes with potential detours. These routes are generated using a fine-meshed regularly latticed network and shortest path finding methods. Additionally, two indicators of the geographic accuracy of the simulated networks are introduced. A historical case study is presented to demonstrate the model’s first results. These results show that the modelled networks reproduce relevant results of the historically built network with reasonable accuracy.
... Then, the distribution of the shows the array of geospatial data, either initial input data or intermediate data, derived by each data-transformation module (D-TM). The Semantic Array Programming ( de Rigo, 2012a,b;de Rigo et al., 2013) notation is followed for highlighting the array-based semantics associated to each data layer ( de Rigo, 2012a,b). For estimating the future vulnerability, a simplified proxy D-TM was exploited by integrating the predicted future habitat suitability P hs,k of the insect pest k with the current (t0) relative probability of presence (rpp) raster layer H rpp,l of the corresponding host tree species l. ...
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Forest insect pests represent a serious threat to European forests and their negative effects could be exacerbated by climate change. This paper illustrates how species distribution modelling integrated with host tree species distribution data can be used to assess forest vulnerability to this threat. Two case studies are used: large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L) and horse‐chestnut leaf miner (Cameraria ohridella Deschka & Dimič) both at pan‐European level. The proposed approach integrates information from different sources. Occurrence data of insect pests were collected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), climatic variables for present climate and future scenarios were sourced, respectively, from WorldClim and from the Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), and distributional data of host tree species were obtained from the European Forest Data Centre (EFDAC), within the Forest Information System for Europe (FISE). The potential habitat of the target pests was calculated using the machine learning algorithm of Maxent model. On the one hand, the results highlight the potential of species distribution modelling as a valuable tool for decision makers. On the other hand, they stress how this approach can be limited by poor pest data availability, emphasizing the need to establish a harmonised open European database of geo‐referenced insect pest distribution data.
... Array programming has been 910137+ (3) used for building the architecture for our modelling approach. For mitigating the complexity of trans-disciplinary modelling and the inconsistencies between input data, parameters and output, semantic checks on the processed information and a modularisation of the key parts of the model were introduced following the semantic array programming paradigm (SemAP) [28,29,30]. The proposed architecture ( Fig. 2) exploits the geospatial capacities of GIS in order to estimate soil erosion yield (e-RUSLE model). ...
Article
Full-text available
Rainfall induced landslides and soil erosion are part of a complex system of multiple interacting processes, and both are capable of significantly affecting sediment budgets. These sediment mass movements also have the potential to significantly impact on a broad network of ecosystems health, functionality and the services they provide. To support the integrated assessment of these processes it is necessary to develop reliable modelling architectures. This paper proposes a semi-quantitative integrated methodology for a robust assessment of soil erosion rates in data poor regions affected by landslide activity. It combines heuristic, empirical and probabilistic approaches. This proposed methodology is based on the geospatial semantic array programming paradigm and has been implemented on a catchment scale methodology using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial analysis tools and GNU Octave. The integrated data-transformation model relies on a modular architecture, where the information flow among modules is constrained by semantic checks. In order to improve computational reproducibility, the geospatial data transformations implemented in Esri ArcGis are made available in the free software GRASS GIS. The proposed modelling architecture is flexible enough for future transdisciplinary scenario analysis to be more easily designed. In particular, the architecture might contribute as a novel component to simplify future integrated analyses of the potential impact of wildfires or vegetation types and distributions, on sediment transport from water induced landslides and erosion.
Technical Report
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While the social status and position of women and men, girls and boys in Nepal - as elsewhere - is cut through by geography, social class, race, ethnicity, and age (life-stage), historically women and girls have been disproportionately subject to gender-based disadvantages, both legally enshrined and institutionalised as social norms and expectations (Matinga et al., 2019). In recent years, the Government of Nepal has sought to address major sites of gender-based disadvantage, introducing a series of legal and regulatory provisions to strengthen women’s position in society and advance gender equality. The 2015 Constitution mandated that women occupy a third of parliamentary seats, and introduced a raft of new rights previously withheld from women. Newly available rights include: rights to inheritance (lineage), to reproductive and maternal health provision, and equal rights in property and family matters (Government of Nepal, 2015). There followed a series of measures to address gender-based inequalities in educational attainment and in legally recognised use-rights over land (at a time when under 20% of women had land registered in their name (IOM, 2016). Despite these recent moves to diminish gender-based inequalities, women and girls in Nepal - as elsewhere - continue to be disproportionately subject to gender-based disadvantages, both legally enshrined and institutionalised as social norms and expectations (Care, 2015). Against this backdrop, this study investigated the potential for novel digital data sources to support gender-equitable development across Nepal. The study was organised around two work packages. In the first, we combined nationally representative, geo-located survey data with satellite imagery and mobile phone data, to model and map spatial variations and gender-based inequalities for three, key development indicators (literacy, agriculture-based-occupations, and births in health facilities) across Nepal. The results obtained for work package one demonstrate the power of modern and robust statistical methods to exploit geolocated survey data in new and innovative ways, so permitting the geographical scale of survey estimates to be greatly refined. We discuss the data requirements underpinning good model performance, contrasting, for example, the weaker results obtained for male literacy rates with results for the best-performing indicators. Notwithstanding the potential for results to be improved through the inclusion of additional information, we suggest that the showcased techniques can (potentially) be applied to a wide variety of development indicators. We outline the practical relevance of the study outputs for the design, implementation, and monitoring of gender-equitable development in Nepal. The second work package sought to leverage de-identified mobile phone data to produce robust, frequently updatable, information on gendered mobility and migration patterns, trajectories, and dynamics within Nepal. This entailed the development of methods to predict gender for a ‘population’ of mobile phone subscribers. As part of this workstream, we administered a primary survey to validate gender for a representative sample of subscribers. To our knowledge, this study is the first time that a rigorous assessment of SIM-card (Subscriber Identification Module-card) sharing has been undertaken and incorporated into model architectures for demographic prediction. The study findings indicate that it is common for individuals to use one another’s SIM-cards, despite (overall) high rates of individual mobile phone ownership in Nepal. Our results suggest that the ‘single-SIM/single subscriber’ assumption (which has, to date, underpinned demographic prediction models) is untenable in the study setting. The uncertainty introduced by widespread SIM sharing in this setting is higher than traditionally allowed for by ‘classic methods’. The extent to which the pattern observed for Nepal holds in different settings is an empirical question. Ultimately, it may be necessary to reassess the performance of ‘classic methods’ to predict demographics from CDR data in light of previously undetected sources of uncertainty. This will depend on further research to assess the extent of (unacceptable) uncertainty posed by SIM use and sharing in different settings. Seeking to compensate for the uncertainty introduced by reported widespread SIM-sharing, we applied state-of-the-art semantic array programming - a robust, modular modelling approach - to model women’s and men’s mobility and migration patterns. While the model results are encouraging, indicating that analysis of individual CDR data can enhance our understanding of the spatial variation and temporal dynamics of sex and gender-based inequalities, more work is needed to unravel the implications of SIM sharing for gender (and more broadly, demographic) prediction models. We make a number of recommendations in this regard. ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ▷⠀𝗛𝗼𝘄⠀𝘁𝗼⠀𝗰𝗶𝘁𝗲:⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ Bosco, C., Watson, S., Game, A., Brooks, C., de Rigo, D., Qader, S., Greenhalgh, J., Nilsen, K., Ninneman, A., Wood, R., Bengtsson, L., 2019. Towards high-resolution sex-disaggregated dynamic mapping. Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12800.79360 ◁
Conference Paper
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For meeting sustainable development goals (SDGs) an improved understanding of geographic differences in health status, wealth and access to resources is crucial. The equitable and efficient allocation of international aid relies on knowing where funds are needed most. For instance, aid for poverty alleviation or financial access improvement requires knowledge of where the poor are. Unfortunately, detailed, reliable and timely information on the spatial distribution and characteristics of intended aid recipients in many low income countries are rarely available. This lack of information also hinders assessments of the impacts of aid; when presented at national scales, development and health indicators conceal important inequities, with the rural poor often least well represented. High-resolution data on key social and health indicators are therefore fundamental for targeting limited resources, especially where development funding has recently come under increased pressure. In this study, we show how modern statistical approaches can be used to maps for the distribution of indicators with a level of detail that can support geographically stratified decision-making. Using predictive modelling techniques, the rates of stunting in children under the age of five from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) geolocated cluster data were exploited to predict high-resolution maps (2008 { 2013) in Nigeria. An array of different modelling techniques was applied to produce prediction maps. These included Bayesian geostatistical models and machine learning techniques. An ensemble model was also exploited for aggregating the different modelling results. By combining these maps with information on the disbursement of aid for stunting alleviation in Nigeria (AidData database - http://aiddata.org/ ), we quantified both the distribution of aid relative to population characteristics related to stunting, and how aid disbursement interacts with changes in this index. In spite of the lack of exhaustive information related to aid disbursement, the results here demonstrate the potential of this approach. ► How to cite: ◄ Bosco, C., Tejedor-Garavito, N., de Rigo, D., Pezzulo, C., Bengtsson, L., Tatem, A. J., Bird, T. J., 2017. Mapping the interaction between development aid and stunting in Nigeria. In: 28th IUSSP International Population Conference. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP), Cape Town, South Africa.
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In order to meet and assess progress towards global sustainable development goals (SDGs), an improved understanding of geographic variation in population wellbeing indicators such as health status, wealth and access to resources is crucial, as the equitable and efficient allocation of international aid relies on knowing where funds are needed most. Unfortunately, in many low-income countries, detailed, reliable and timely information on the spatial distribution and characteristics of intended aid recipients are rarely available. Furthermore, lack of information on the past distribution of aid relative to need also hinders assessments of the impacts of aid. High-resolution data on key social and health indicators, as well as how aid distribution relates to these indicators are therefore fundamental for targeting limited resources and building on past efforts. In this study, we show how modern statistical approaches combined with a new geographic database of aid distribution can be used to map the distribution of indicators with a level of detail that can support geographically stratified decision-making. Based on geo-located survey data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in Nigeria (2008 - 2013) and Nepal (2006 - 2011), Bayesian geostatistical models and machine learning approaches were used in combination with a suite of spatial data layers to create high-resolution predictive maps for (i) the rates of stunting in children under the age of five and (ii) the household wealth index. An ensemble model was also exploited for aggregating different modelling results to improve the modelling prediction capacity in Nigeria (for stunting 2008). By combining these maps with information on the disbursement of aid for increasing food security and alleviating poverty (AidData database - http://aiddata.org/), we quantified both the reported spatial distribution of aid relative to stunting and poverty, as well as how changes in these indices overtime related to aid disbursement. While many cases of aid disbursement lacked detailed spatial information, the results here demonstrate the potential of this approach and highlight the value of spatially disaggregated data on the distribution of aid. ࣭ ࣭ ࣭ ࣭ ࣭ ࣭ ࣭ ࣭ ࣭ ࣭ ▷𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗶𝘁𝗲: Bosco, C., Tejedor-Garavito, N., de Rigo, D., Tatem, A.J., Pezzulo, C., Wood, R., Chamberlain, H., Bird, T., 2018. Geostatistical tools to map the interaction between development aid and indices of need. AidData Working Paper series, vol 49. AidData, Williamsburg, VA, United States. https://www.aiddata.org/publications/geostatistical-tools-to-map-the-interaction-between-development-aid-and-indices-of-need (Archived at: https://tinyurl.com/y653r43l ) ◁
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The Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Elm phloem necrosis mycoplasma, now renamed Candidatus Phytoplasma ulmi (CPu), for the European Union (EU) territory. CPu is a well-defined phytoplasma species of the genus Candidatus Phytoplasma, for which molecular detection assays are available. CPu is transmitted by grafting and vegetative propagation material as well as by insect vectors. CPu is reported from North America and is present in at least four EU Member States: the Czech Republic, France, Germany and Italy. CPu distribution in Europe is suspected to be underestimated, with high uncertainty since no systematic surveys are carried out. CPu has a host range restricted to Ulmaceae species, and especially to the genus Ulmus, with some variations in susceptibility to the disease. It is listed in Annex IAI of Directive 2000/29/EC. CPu is not expected to be affected by EU ecoclimatic conditions wherever its hosts are present and has the potential to establish largely within the EU territory. Two insect vectors, Macropsis glandacea and Philaenus spumarius, are widely distributed in Europe. The uncertainty about other potential vector species, in which the phytoplasma has been detected, is considered as high. There is a lack of data to fully assess the potential consequences of the disease, with regards to the susceptibility of European elm species and virulence of European CPu strains. Data are not sufficient to reach a conclusion on pest categorisation of CPu and a full risk assessment can be conducted but is unlikely to bring any additional value unless the key additional data gaps on distribution, insect vectors, elm species susceptibility and potential consequences of the pest are filled.
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Forests play a pivotal role in timber production, maintenance and development of biodiversity and in carbon sequestration and storage in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. Policy makers and forest experts therefore require reliable information on forest extent, type and change for management, planning and modeling purposes. It is becoming increasingly clear that such forest information is frequently inconsistent and unharmonised between countries and continents. This paper presents a forest information portal that has been developed in line with the GEOSS and INSPIRE frameworks. The web portal provides access to forest resource data at a variety of spatial scales, from global through to regional and local, as well as providing analytical capabilities for monitoring and validating forest change. The system also allows for the utilisation of forest data and processing services within other thematic areas. The web portal has been developed using open standards to facilitate accessibility, interoperability and data transfer.
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Forests play a pivotal role in timber production, maintenance and development of biodiversity and in carbon se-questration and storage in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. Policy makers and forest experts therefore require reliable information on forest extent, type and change for management, planning and modeling purposes. It is becoming increasingly clear that such forest information is frequently inconsistent and unharmonised between countries and continents. This paper presents a forest information portal that has been developed in line with the GEOSS and INSPIRE frameworks. The web portal provides access to forest resource data at a variety of spatial scales, from global through to regional and local, as well as providing analytical capabilities for monitoring and validating forest change. The system also allows for the utilisation of forest data and processing services within other thematic areas. The web portal has been developed using open standards to facilitate accessibility, interoperability and data transfer.
Book
Computational scientists in the domains of environmental modelling are challenged to cope with data impressively growing in complexity, heterogeneity and size. Computational models are mathematical descriptions which usually try to capture numerically some essential (i.e. in most cases, approximated) relationships between key aspects of observed phenomena. As a consequence, they should in principle be unambiguously deterministic and therefore scientifically reproducible - including unintentional algorithm errors or weaknesses which this way have a chance to be discovered and corrected in a collaborative effort of the involved scientific community. However, the experience of computational modelling scientists is often quite different: the distance between scientific publications describing research models and the corresponding source code implementations (if publicly available...) can be so remarkable to practically discourage computational models' evolution outside the close group of their original authors, exclusive owners of essential, undisclosed (but also isolated) knowledge. Reducing this distance is the strategic objective of the semantic array programming paradigm, which is exposed in this book along with its supporting implementation, the Mastrave modelling library. Array programming was originally conceived for mitigating the gap between mathematical notation and algorithm implementations. Despite programming languages are universal, executable - thus suitable to actually perform extensive experiments - and unambiguous, "most programming languages are decidedly inferior to mathematical notation and are little used as tools of thought in ways that would be considered significant by, say, an applied mathematician. The thesis [...] is that the advantages of executability and universality found in programming languages can be effectively combined, in a single coherent language, with the advantages offered by mathematical notation." (Iverson). Array programming promotes as atomic quantities vectors, matrices, tensors and natively provides extremely concise operators for manipulating them. Coherent array-based mathematical description of models can simplify complex algorithm design and prototyping while moving mathematical reasoning directly into the source code – because of its substantial size reduction – where the mathematical description is actually expressed in a completely formalized and reproducible way. Two additional design concepts define semantic array programming as supported by the Mastrave library: 1. modularizing sub-models and autonomous tasks with a strong effort toward their most concise generalization and reusability in other contexts; 2. semantically constraining – with terse array-based constraints – the information entered in and returned by each module instead of relying on external assumptions. Several examples of scientific applications in the field of environmental modelling are provided, along with a comprehensive documentation of the Mastrave modelling library.
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Funders, publishers, and research institutions must act to ensure that research computer code is made widely available.
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The guest editor presents the articles for this special issue on reproducible research for scientific computing.
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The Communications Web site, http://cacm.acm.org, features more than a dozen bloggers in the BLOG@CACM community. In each issue of Communications, we'll publish selected posts or excerpts.twitterFollow us on Twitter ...
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The GIS software sector has developed rapidly over the last ten years. Open Source GIS applications are gaining relevant market shares in academia, business, and public administration. In this paper, we illustrate the history and features of a key Open Source GIS, the Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS). GRASS has been under development for more than 28 years, has strong ties into academia, and its review mechanisms led to the integration of well tested and documented algorithms into a joint GIS suite which has been used regularly for environmental modelling. The development is community-based with developers distributed globally. Through the use of an online source code repository, mailing lists and a Wiki, users and developers communicate in order to review existing code and develop new methods. In this paper, we provide a functionality overview of the more than 400 modules available in the latest stable GRASS software release. This new release runs natively on common operating systems (MS-Windows, GNU/Linux, Mac OSX), giving basic and advanced functionality to casual and expert users. In the second part, we review selected publications with a focus on environmental modelling to illustrate the wealth of use cases for this open and free GIS.
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GNU Octave1 has been available for nearly two decades. During that time the scope of the project has grown from a simple interface to numerical tools intended for classroom use to a capable system with hundreds of thousands of users worldwide.This paper provides an overview of the Octave project, summarizes some recently completed additions, and describes in detail the ways in which Octave may be used to perform reproducible research.
Conference Paper
An approach to the integrated water resources management based on Neuro-Dynamic Programming (NDP) with an improved technique for fastening its Artificial Neural Network (ANN) training phase will be presented. When dealing with networks of water resources, Stochastic Dynamic Programming provides an effective solution methodology but suffers from the so-called "curse of dimensionality", that rapidly leads to the problem intractability. NDP can sensibly mitigate this drawback by approximating the solution with ANNs. However in the real world applications NDP shows to be considerably slowed just by this ANN training phase. To overcome this limit a new training architecture (SIEVE: Selective Improvement by Evolutionary Variance Extinction) has been developed. In this paper this new approach is theoretically introduced and some preliminary results obtained on a real world case study are presented. Copyright © 2005 IFAC In the paper the authors are listed in alphabetical order as the contribution of each was essential. Major contributions from the author whose name is underlined. Presented by Castelletti, A. at the 16th IFAC World Congress, Prague, 2005