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Constructing peace scenarios for the Middle East

Authors:
  • The Millennium Project
  • millennium project

Abstract

In the aftermath of the Iraq war, global attention to the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has increased, but the way ahead still seems as difficult as before. The lack of trust on both sides has led to the development of the internationally backed “Road map for peace” that avoids direct negotiation between the parties. This inability to communicate, cooperate and compromise could be alleviated by plausible peace scenarios – stories connecting the future and present for the Middle East. This article reports on the results so far of the Millennium Project’s study to create such scenarios.
English
Arabic 
Hebrew 



 !"
#$
%  &&
Foreword
"'
"()*)+( "'"
"' ,-(,.,(+, 
)%(/,01))%( 0)+
( '
(,,, 
0&2(,
,3", +"**/*
, (**/*"*
 * (***( *,4
,+,, ( 0"
(+("",2
,., "
 +0"*("+
",, (+(++!
5,(&/!6"'+" ,++
7"+,,)+)  (4(+
*+
+( ,+,8, 
,7(
8," (+ ,
   
,  ( +
 *,,* "
(+7(+
,8,",8,,,
 ,(, 
,$
,! 9!$,::9
,,
8,+4
 4;;(,( /+;(,(;( (
 4;;(,( /+;(,(;( (
 4;;(,( /+;(,(;'&#(
+*(+" 
,+(,,
,, (,0
0""("'
,*,, , 
,,3 *
<,(  ((  ,,,
"+
( ;,,,
((,(&/+,+
 ,,( (*
 *(,++((=(%
>/+?++@
,*
=(!%=%#
Abstract of the Scenarios
Scenario 1: Water Works--+,,
   +(,(
", ((*)(()A( (
"0  (*,,+( *%
( (" +*/ (
("0+"*  " ( *
 (%,*,8,)
(B)(+"65 +(
 *(( 
Scenario 2: The Open City& +=,(+,
8,+=,(&* *(
 "+  ,,("7
, "65%("
,(+C(+ *0"
(',",+,(+,"+C,+
(8,,+*0,
+(,"&((+(
", ((,( (+
  0(""*
 (65(0+,0,"
( (&
Scenario 3: Dove)$)*0 
,",(&
++((*+ (+B(
&( +
)0*0++)
+ ,(D",(+
E0 ",  ,,*+
)F,)(( B+(0+
+,(+, C&++(
0, GHE++
+(0+B=,((
 "*(+(0((+8,
+ 25,*
,( "((+&  "0,7+
"4(  ( 
Scenario 1. Water Works
5 (7"'*"
(+,I,((",*,(
+"J"'+"  +
"+65'&*65$&*K,'6*6*F,*
65B "'*
 +++
 , 0,+7 
K,-F( ,0 *((
&", ,0(, 
* ,
%+"(GG:+(0&J*
'!,++
,"65'" ""%,"
K,,,+(0*=*
&,"*,*'+" *"*,"*J* ,
K,*, ( (+
",(/C,/,
,,,,,,, "6
 ,+,*"++
+(, *6+
&,+(",+,
+ 
+*"(
'F''FB"( B+(* /*
,"((*/ *+,/ /
 "K,(+(
 ,%*,8, 
"K, ,'F''F"
((7  4S,
0*E( &*R,
=,(8,*E"3,
7*S( (*E,*R,
&,+,
,+"*
, =,D +<(
( ,%*D(
(+*,,,+++

008,,(08(
0(F ,* 0,(.,
 
6(083 *,3
0&26++( 
(D("(+(08 +08
D*,+, 
 0(D+080
08/,++,*,+("0
6(++(
3%"+*, ,,
"((
F+7""++ *
+  + 
(,"+D,(+(
,+ +*" ,7(+
0& (+ B( *
(,8, &
.,,
+7 ++*,
(*',,
(+,+(*0+
F,+(5*60$*0/F+
!F$(*65$&8,"( (
,D +(*,(+""(%D
7(/,+, "+(
(",( 
,,,"(((7$
 $ ,8,,=*
0*&7  0+"
("+(,8,,*+"(*
(,""*=*&*0
,8, /(",+((
,,+=0,,
,"+"*",++*"(
 ,D 
7+,+  (%,
*,&0*, 
++   %,F &
( (
*("9(+&,+
 , 6F*B ,&
(%,,*+(&J,
 ,(JGL#("*(*
+,(((<,,+((*
65F+"(" ,+
*8,",,,
( ,*,("
,65'6(*&,"&
$ + ("("
 , +(,
&! , ,,+(  +(+
+,*,,++ ,
+,*0++,
B  ++(+,(,
K, 6"& 6"0/"
( (,<, +( (5%
65'!*+, +,,
( D  ,,,((
,+B+,,3,*
,( ,/+
(+&0" *,+,
+D((+*((("
 +
 (%&+D"",+, (
",((,C,(
&! /8,",++(+
"",+,  
+ *((
)B+),( (
%(&0
%&+"/D*!55*..!*
&M,,65,"!,"
+(,4)$ (*("* *(
+( '0( ,
 *)), ("  
,""+(*+(
8,D+0 *"N0
*"("N),"!,(,,
&++I,*)!"(,
'("C*0  ,"!,,D65
 ,8,D"(2+ ,
)
5",N,"!,
(,"&M,4)O,0(+
", 0  65& +
8, 8,D,*"(* 
 "2 2)& ,,
  4)65,4
'65%(","7
0(, "GHE

&K,- +0&
  (,+(,,
+(+0&
'+(+,++,"
=,()
65,"!, ((
65& *'F''F- B *
("+D0 *65%("
(&65((I
D( , )
+*),+'F''F ,, 
,F!((((*
*(,(,
+*((((+2,,
,,/,)(+),+,
+,65-0+-
+065& "++
+(65,6((
' +(( *65 
!-<*65!*,++&
'J!,+( ( (
,   " + (
&& +,( " +
((,*+B7
65!*&,"'F''F* +
B ( "+ +
(3+.*0*'6*60$*65$&*
5%+(( +I
J!((*J!!((*&
5%.,+,,5&
(+(+,+,+
 0, *(+  
&'J!,+(,
 " + ( '+" (D
+,   * (,* ,,
65!+,*  ,B (
&",(6*6M+(**!
,(D&",+ +(7
,""6(7++
",+  ,"B (  
0(+&  
 " +(/,B ,, (
*,&!  ,+
  " + ((  ,*,
( (,+(+&
,"'F''F&",+  +,*
,,C,,+" (
((,,*0((+, ,,5,
(+,+, ((,"
, +((  
F+,&+(<(
+((,D ,,+
((,(,,
&"(<,,,,+/,
=,(& =,("*65
, *, (++("
(0,+,GHE*,+
=,(*&,++, +,
0B  ,(,,++
,&+  ,"+
"+,,+D
+,+
.,,,8, (++(65
& ,+( (")
(B)  *,"7 )()
"0,("+(
+(("&,
;((B+ ,"
(+' "
(B0"65!'F''F"+("
,++ "
("  +, 
 ""((B ,
,+(
2*,'F''F,/,+(( (B(
(+"( ( "++/,+
"" "((++ ,
((B7*( ,7
(("((7*7=,(B,"
 +)(
(),+&0"( ( 
( ,((,,+&
!B+&0,"(,(
+*(,
(+ " "-
D**,(*,++"
'+(+"( 
*"((B"( 
++, 
0(("( D
(( )! ") (+ 
O,+  ()  )
"(( 

((("7 (*&&0
+ +", * + 
+,)+),(
()))) +*+"
)(()*+ ,(
+7" 
F,,A +((
+,",++ (,  
,,-,++,F!((
)(()+D,,*,-
 +(
  (+ /,$(+(
.",+(.
 "((,
F!((
,( +,,"
+,(6*0, ("'
75,5&"+,+(+
0' "(+, 
 "(("
",+ 
Scenario 2. The Open City
(+  I,(<
,("I "*,*+ ,
* ,"'I+("+
=,(8,,+,)",",",
,"-,*)(%+((
, " )
<,(*)*)"0(
<,%+=,**(N)
(,, (+(*),)
I "=B(0
, ,(*.,I,
+, "
+6 '6+,+
",(+$,( ,"
!55)H:,)(+,
"  ,(
 ( ,*,()!
,)=++"
!!,*+B ,=(=,(,+!,
O(+ ,+,(,+,*
5P*F+,J
&*FJ&!F0%,((
("( ((+
" *+(+"+
D"( 
7(+*((/,7
 %+  *)O%
",",*+,*
0 ",=,( +,
,(C,, 
+,0( "=,(
"AC+(,%
+,)
& (+,=*&*
"C  +(D " +,
( (,+C  +
, + +)(,( 
+()C  +,,
  +)+")
+,+ +(4"
,+,I,,,*"+*+
( ""+ "(+
 (," *+*(0
+(+(=,(, ",
-/,*,,+, ,""
+D (=,(3/,0,,
&,+
 (+D=*,(*!*
+%-+
.,8,+,  
   ,65",0
::#*65'!,+
, (0& 
65'!  ), "
+  (  +,
"=,(8,C( *
  *(
*"*((B -,  +*
B,"7*+, 
-)
  +,+, !*=*,(
,7)")"

  ,+,4,+, ,++
", (*+
+,,+65 ,
7",(D,65 ,
(,,4(+( ,
,) )++"/,C
 ",, (,"*,(
*"+,65G9E 
D=,(* ,, 
,,"0((
"*(  " 65,,++
+D , 
+ ( ,""
,,+(( (
(+(,*  (
+,  ""*I,(=,(*
+&*+, "
+*(*  *+
( 0 +"(( 
 +(,% 
F+,J& (+((+
"%65%("
,=,( "+
+(3,  8,+65-
,7"65%(","!,,
6 *=,(-,"B""%
("*,,(
,((,"
&,FJ&((  ,
( +,(),)*,
+ ,(+,,, 
((,( '(B(+,,
(C%7
F+,,, 8,FJ&
,+" ,"*(,*(*B
', + 
(,*+,(,(+
&+",(O"(=
+',","K,-,
&(J=
0"% (I"J"
,'+" K,-Q4:*,(,"( 
&(J,( (=(
"+,(0(+'+" *"*
J*08*=,   "4
We would welcome any Jew who wants to come to this part of the world, being part
of the promised land, to come and live, we'll give you citizenship; you want to buy a
house, buy land-ne; you want to have your relatives come live or visit, ne; do
your work, live with your community, build your synagogue, have your own laws to
govern your family and community life. But do not threaten a national entity. And
come to any part, come to Syria, come to Egypt, come to Iraq, and come to Jordan,
whatever you believe the promised land to be.
,,,+,,+%- (
=,(4,+"*
B ,(=8,(+, 
 ,(
,(!,( "",
(  ,  *K,-Q4:,+
,D"(+,
(+ ,
(+(B(",,**
"K,-, 3"*,
((,( ,
00*B+." +
+,=B*,(*+*
  0+!*("(
,(4
Jews accept that the way to fulll the promise of God does not include depriving
others of their homes; and if Muslims and Arabs recognize the sincere attachment
of Jews to the promised land and make serious e)orts to accommodate that
promise…we are in for a "deep peace," not a supercial one that has been broken,
stepped upon, and tarnished, for 55 years. We vow to extend the Jewish idea of the
sanctity of the home to others and will help bring about a future that makes homes-
all homes-holy and safe.
5P(++, 
"4",D+ F+,,+
"( ,*"
"(("(4)(,0
 )(4),+
H()O" B(
(,  +*"+,"(
00,,&*((,(

++,( +(*
&*++*,",+,(
+,+=(*,+
,* D
7 (B(+0
C + (
+-+! +(,
",,+"'+" 
,,+, -++
,"* *,))
,'B+ +(B ,
+0,*0
+0+(
,,*,+ 
+,," 
,
FJ&*65(*(+* 
"(",(= '*
,(+"*+
+2((*((
, B
((*,,7
,((, ,+,, /,
,,(0 /+(
(+,, /" *(
 ,( B 0
,(  7*,+
,(+7*( (+*/( ,*
,( "( *(,(*
  "(7 ,
0(D*""  5
D+0*&*J*"*=
( ( ++("*
 ,+ * (((0
*B ((,=,
((+ '",+(*
 * ,*B ( ,(
7-,*
(*  
,(( " 
0" *"*,
(+("+*(*
)',(+ ("+ )
I+
/ / "!+**
=,,"( "
+,+++,,,,+
 0&,C
,*(,(  "("
 ( 0,(,
 ((
+C( ,+  
'.,  
(,(,+,
0"++( *0&((
 ,,+"++(
 "+ ,,(&,+,
00,(&0+,
(,((+3(","
+((+(& ""+0(,
   ((0
",+,"((+&(
) )(", ((
*,( (7"" +(,
""+  
,"("0*,&
*0&&+0,
+ ,",D 
&*    ,
 (65(0*,,
0&, (,8,+
65*,  ,(0
30,"
(&0+(
, GHE*  (*
&0,+,
D 0 + 0"
*++B  ,"(& 
*(("7"  
,+"%&  
7,*((,
 ,("65(,
7  
,0(,  2+ 
,,*,7" * +,
+( "65,, "  
,
'B((  +(
(  ,+,.,/,, ,
B(((* ,(+"
((*,,  *++
,,*&0(("
 "72,2+((, ,
+',J((,(
,&,+&0
(+(,ID,(!J
+B( &7( "CJ(
  ,,",
(,*(**2+FJ&
*%-"0
Scenario 3. Dove
00*( 4" 
($0 "C
"( ,M*,"+
$, * "
 & *+,
(++,(*)" 
(+4-,,"+,*--"
"-(,-""- C, ,
,C(",,+
+ ,(,, ,+
,+) *).,"*-""-
((*4(/,""
( ,","",
,,"+(
,+0/, ,",
,&+5""("  
(7+( ", 0 ",
"   *(,(
,"  )
0++*0(B(
(+B"  
(,,B,,
0(+,+*(+(
+B ((,(  
,((*++* ,0
((+,,,+"4((
B(, "4)$-0
,(+,"3 N"(,D
( ,,=,3 5O
, +++,2,+(
(,,(  ,0,
((",",,,"-
,+08*" +(*"
( 65(, ,,(")
 +,( "4
)!",, ++J"
 ,65 +0++
08$,+N$ ,,
((0(N) 4)I
",+*,",((0
,(*",-+()
)O*  +,(3(*,+D
"0 ($",
, ,++,(N0
+,+",+  ,
,"0*+*++N
"+NB,&(
+,(+,  N) 4).,
 ,(+N,+,,
 N)8,,+
+ , ,*
- *((,((++

,B +4
Israeli Refuseniks Say They Will Not Participate in Bombing Attacks
Israeli press, public, and politicians condemn 27 pilots as unt to serve
JERUSALEM - Twenty-seven Israeli reservist pilots last week joined the "Refusenik"
movement, saying they would not participate in bombing attacks in the West Bank
and the Gaza Strip, which often injure civilians."We refuse to participate in Air Force
attacks on civilian populations," the pilots said in
a petition delivered to the head of the air force, Maj-Gen Dan Halutz. "We refuse to
continue harming innocent civilians."
Last week's Refuseniks are part of a small but vocal movement opposing Israel's
policy of "targeted killings," in which helicopters and planes drop bombs or re
missiles to kill terrorists hiding in civilian areas.
  (()(,*)F,+"
,00*(&0( 
(("0 *,,"
,+ ,"(C" *((
(+,,(I"*"*
(,+ +,(J
", 
((,+((+
+ (+ + +
, 8,65*+*J*"  
+ *),+
((N)0*&*
 *,&((,&0
(+(3*,+*(,,(*
 N( ,C(
,65*"%+D(
,+8,(.,,( 
+*+"(,"*,(", 
65("5
(,F,*+
(","*  "("
0((*7"
"((" (5
&&D*,   +,"4
)* )
,((((( +
"+,(+ *7,,*
( + %M+*
((+*A(*+6
 *0(+&(
((
I- B0+(J 0
&+,("4+B 
,**++  * 7++ "
& ,, +* +(F,
  ,  ((
+,(*+((0++,
(+, +, ,
&++(0,
GHE*,+(B+(,(*
,D   ,* "
&, 0" 
(*0++("
&,","*+0
+B,++
&++(0-+(+
5,5&", ((
, ,65
 (+(+
/,=,(,"( "*
(+(* +* "+,
" (&,
00 (+,,  
,,C,*((+8,J*=**
B*'+" "* "+((+!"
+, B(,(("
((*, "*
(
+ +*6'6"
(  , "+ 2
+,+,+ 6
(, (( +,7, (
, 0"(( "
( 4,0& ,*,
 +7( ) ) +
" ( 7*, 
 +",+((
+(+*+ 2
* 5,*,( "(
(+&  "0,7+"4(
 ( + /*
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Graphic representation of the Peace Process
Futures wheel-type representation of the Middle East peace process based
on the +ndings of the Millennium Project study4
... Following the 1995 Oslo Peace Accords, Israel's road construction to access settlements and formation of blockades and check-points in response to violence during the first intifada isolated Palestinian communities and exacerbated tensions (for example, Glenn andGordon 2003, 2005). While these actions were necessary for Israeli security, they stifled @ Jay L. Michaels, jaymichaels@sar.usf.edu ...
... I began my example mapping by relating the macro factors that are acknowledged in many traditional accounts of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Figure 1). These include Israeli and Palestinian concerns with territory and land rights, Israel's need for security, and both sides' sense of displacement (for example "right of return" and land confiscation) leading to desire for retaliation (Cleveland 2004;Glenn and Gordon 2003;Shlaim 2009). ...
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The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains one of the most deeply entrenched in the world. While there is great knowledge about numerous individual factors contributing to this conflict’s persistence, much of the information is fragmented and segregated into different disciplines. This article seeks to integrate an array of literature using a dynamic systems perspective to examine how social – as opposed to political – forces contribute to ongoing tensions. The first part describes the dynamical systems perspective, focusing on how intractable conflicts emerge as a result of interlinking factors that anchor the social system in patterns that resist change. The second part explores the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in terms of specific social forces contributing to the conflict’s persistence. These include leadership issues, economic inequalities poverty, youth disenfranchisement, and population distribution. Then the contribution maps how the discussed social factors interrelate to reinforce the ongoing tensions and addresses how small-scale approaches may circumvent the volatile, entrenched patterns of hostility. Open access via International Journal of Conflict and Violence: http://ijcv.org/index.php/ijcv/article/view/255
... They argue that scenario building is 'an essential element for working on, and creating, alternative futures' and 'an important part of socio-economic analysis' [63]. Such approaches to futures thinking are well established in practitioner and policy communities [61] and have been used with reference to a broad range of issues and phenomena, including: the global economy [64]; community development [4]; urban planning [3]; technology forecasting [6]; the development of information and communication technology [69] economic sectors [49,14]; and geopolitical issues [28]. The potential value of futures thinking has been recognised by policy-makers and can be seen in aspects of policy-making [18]. ...
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Scenarios represent future possibilities or descriptions of ‘what might be’. This paper generates a series of possible futures based on an identified policy priority, namely the encouragement of increased levels of small business activity. Counterfactual thinking is used to challenge this policy objective and to formulate alternative possibilities. Specific consideration is made of the nature of the future economy in terms of business linkages and market integration, as are the likely strategic responses of businesses and government. Eight scenarios are developed based on these drivers of change in economic structure and business activity. Data on the world economy are then applied to 19 developed and developing economies to test the scenarios. How these ‘externally generated’ scenarios can be applied to and made relevant to businesses, and in particular smaller enterprises, is examined, as are the broader implications for the future nature and structure of economic activity.
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This paper describes a new approach to scenario planning, known as scenario network mapping (SNM for short). The method, developed by the author in his doctoral thesis work, is contrasted with three more standard types of scenario planning. SNM differs from the conventional methods in using many more scenarios, each forming part of a particular pathway of possible events. In SNM, the focus is more on the network-like structure than on the scenarios themselves. The resulting network is easily modified as history unfolds; scenarios can be repositioned in the structure, new scenarios added, and irrelevant ones removed. The method lends itself to a highly participative development approach: the more actor groups participate in the construction of the scenarios, the more comprehensive the structure is likely to be. A case study of the current war in Iraq demonstrates the method in action.
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