No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the author.
Energy and GDP growth
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the growth in energy use and the growth of gross national product (GDP) 1950‐2004. How closely are the two related? Does this relationship vary in strength between rich and poor countries, between market economies and centrally planned economies, and between oil exporting and oil importing nations? Does its strength depend on the price of oil?
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses linear regression of the growth rate in energy use on the growth rate in GDP for 171 countries, GDP per capita, and the price of oil, run for all 171 countries and for subsets of rich, medium rich and poor countries, market economies versus centrally planned economies, and oil exporting versus oil importing countries.
Findings
There is a significant positive relationship between growth in energy use and growth in GDP for all countries taken together and for all subsets of countries, although not necessarily proportional. There is some indication that growth in energy use declines with GDP per capita, for any given growth in GDP. There is a significantly negative relationship between the price of oil and the growth in energy use for all countries taken together and for all subsets of countries, except for planned economies and for oil exporting countries.
Research limitations/implications
Given that most of the world's primary energy comes from fossil fuels, it is going to be very difficult to reconcile reductions in carbon dioxide emissions with continued economic growth, especially in poor and medium rich countries.
Originality/value
There are few if any studies which have considered the relationship between energy use and GDP growth for such a large sample of countries, stretching as far back as to 1950 for the countries for which data are available for such a long period.
... (2007Karagöl vd. ( ), 1974Karagöl vd. ( -2004 dönemini ve Türkiye'yi kapsayan araştırmalarında elektrik tüketimi ile iktisadi büyüme arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiş olup, kısa dönemde seriler arasında pozitif, uzun dönemde ise negatif yönlü bir ilişki bulmuşlardır. Başka bir araştırmada Hannesson (2009Hannesson ( ), 1950Hannesson ( -2004 ...
... dönemini ve 171 ülkeyi kapsayan araştırmasında iktisadi büyüme ile enerji tüketimi arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğuna ulaşmıştır.Shahateet (2012), 1980-2011 dönemini ve 17 Arap ülkesini kapsayan araştırmasında iktisadi büyüme ile enerji tüketimi arasında istatiksel olarak güçlü bir ilişkiye ulaşamamıştır.Akbaş ve Şentürk (2013Akbaş ve Şentürk ( ), 1978Akbaş ve Şentürk ( -2009 arasındaki dönemi ve MENA ülkelerini kapsayan tüketimi ile iktisadi büyüme arasında uzun dönem eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin yanı sıra kısa/uzun dönemde çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığına da ulaşılmıştır.Al-Mulali (2014), 1990- 2009 dönemini ve 82 gelişmekte olan ülkeyi kapsayan araştırmasında gerek yenilebilir enerji kaynakları gerekse de yenilenemeyen enerji kaynaklarının uzun dönemde ekonomik sektörler ile ilişkili olduğu bulgusuna ulaşmıştır. Aynı dönemdeki başka bir araştırmada Soares vd. ...
... Aynı zamanda araştırmada, karbon emisyonları ile iktisadi büyüme arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Başka bir araştırmadaDritsaki ve Dritsaki (2014), 1960-2009 dönemini ve üç Avrupa ülkesini (Yunanistan, İspanya ve Portekiz) kapsayan araştırmalarında kısa dönemde incelenen seriler arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit bulunurken, uzun dönemde ise enerji tüketimi ve karbon emisyonu ile iktisadi büyüme arasında tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Mizrai ve Bekri (2017), 2000-2025 arasındaki dönemde İran'da enerji tüketimi ile karbon emisyonları arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmeye çalıştıkları araştırmalarında kurulan modelin senaryosuna göre, 2010'da enerji tüketim yoğunluğu %5 azaltılırsa 2025 yılına kadar karbon emisyonlarının %12.14 azalacağı buna karşılık enerji tüketim yoğunluğu %10 azaltılırsa, karbon emisyon miktarının söz konusu tarihe kadar %17.8 azalacağını tahmin etmişlerdir. ...
1970’li yıllardan beri yapılan araştırmalarda iktisadi büyüme ile enerji tüketimi arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olup olmadığı ve eğer varsa bu ilişkinin boyutunun ne olduğu ciddi bir şekilde incelenmiştir. Bilhassa enerji tüketiminin iktisadi büyüme açısından hayati bir öneme sahip olması ve son 30 yılda gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yaşanan ekonomik kalkınma süreçleri, bu konuyu gün geçtikçe daha da önemli hale getirmiştir. Bununla birlikte son yıllarda enerji tüketimi sonucunda çevreye salınan ve insan sağlığı açısından ağır maliyetleri olan karbon emisyonlarının iktisadi büyümeyi olumsuz etkileyip etkilemediği de yoğun bir merak konusu olmuştur. Bu araştırmada gelişmekte olan ülkeler grubu içerisinde yer alan yedi Avrasya ülkesinin enerji tüketimi ve karbon emisyonları ile bu ülkelerde kaydedilen iktisadi büyüme düzeyleri arasındaki ilişki incelenmeye çalışılmıştır. Araştırmada söz konusu iki açıklayıcı değişkenin iktisadi büyüme üzerinde ne ölçüde etkili olduğu tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu doğrultuda söz konusu ülkelere ait 1994-2013 dönemini kapsayan veriler panel veri analizi ile incelenmiştir.
... The prediction of energy consumption, and therefore motor fuel consumption, is an indispensable link in the process of creating long-term policies and strategies of maintaining the economic stability and development of any country. In this context, the modelling of motor fuel demand has been the subject of many studies [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. Authors have mainly attempted to evaluate demand elasticities in relation to price and income [6– –7]. ...
... Authors have mainly attempted to evaluate demand elasticities in relation to price and income [6– –7]. Thus, the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and energy or oil product demand is well known [2] [4] [8]. Current global energy consumption trends and concerns about global warming put mutually contradictory requirements. ...
... However, there are valid reasons to suggest that this contradiction could be resolved. First, in almost every case of increase in GDP, when a country evolves from a middle income to a high income country, fossil fuel consumption enters a stage of saturation [2]. Most of the countries where energy use growth is faster than the GDP are either low or middle ...
This study is based on the application of mathematical methods of statistical analysis that can be used to predict the development of motor fuel consumption in the Republic of Serbia. It is based on the linear dependence of consumption growth of motor fuel from the development of gross domestic product per capita, which is then corrected by introducing five additional influencing parameters. The model results indicate that the total consumption of motor fuels in Serbia from 2010 to 2025 will be increased by 26.5%. Individual consumption of motor fuels shows different market tendencies. Diesel fuel consumption expects to continue intensive growth to 2025, even though slightly slower than the achievements in the last decade. The current trend of declining demand for gasoline will be stopped from 2015–2016, then followed by slow growth of demand by 2025. Consumption of liquefied petroleum gasses (LPG) will enter the phase of saturation in 2015.
... The authors show that the impact of energy consumption on GDP is more intense in non-OECD countries than in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries [11]. Hannesson (2009) argues in his study that there is a positive but not proportional relationship between GDP and energy consumption. There are indications that energy use growth decreases with GDP per capita for any given increase in GDP [12]. ...
... Hannesson (2009) argues in his study that there is a positive but not proportional relationship between GDP and energy consumption. There are indications that energy use growth decreases with GDP per capita for any given increase in GDP [12]. One study examines energy consumption and economic growth in developing and developed countries. ...
Energy consumption efficiency will be of paramount importance in 2023 due to the first global energy crisis experienced worldwide. The central question of this paper is how energy consumption and economic growth have been related to each other and how they have interacted in time and space in the European Union. Correlation calculations are used to show the relationship between the two indicators per Member State, and hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to the results. The analysis is based on data regarding the European Union Member States for the period of 2010–2019. The results show that there was no robust, strong correlation between the GDP and the energy consumption of the member countries. Another result shows that in the Member States where energy consumption fell significantly, the reduction did not have a negative impact on the economic growth. Finally, the study highlights the methodological shortcomings of studies on the correlation between energy consumption and economic growth.
... Availability of reliable energy supply is critically important for economic growth, poverty reduction, and the social and cultural transformation of society [1][2][3]. Deficient electricity infrastructure curtails social and economic development [4]. Proper energy planning ensures the sustainable development of energy systems that meet the growing energy demands. ...
... content/article/94-general/176-umeme-ltd-tariffs. 3 For additional information investment projects coming into Uganda, see for example UIA 2013/14 Investment Abstract at: http://www.ugandainvest.go.ug/wpcontent/uploads/2016/02/investment_abstrac-t_2013_14_revised_Nove_2014.pdf . ...
Background
Availability of reliable energy supply plays a critical role in the social, economic, and cultural transformation of society. The Uganda electricity sector has suffered long standing supply side constraints that resulted in suppressed demand and outages. Recent developments, including the completion of the 250 MW Bujagali project in 2012, have resulted in sustained growth in peak demand. However, this growth in peak demand appeared to stagnate by 2013. This study examines the recent trends as well as forecast the medium term path of electricity peak demand in Uganda.
Methods
This study uses descriptive data exploration analysis and polynomial functions augmented by empirical estimations of structural break equations to account for the observed trends in electricity peak demand. The study applies the double exponential forecasting model to forecast total peak electricity demand.
Results
The results show that the recent surge in electricity peak demand is due to increased electricity exports. Moreover, the results show a shift in electricity demand from peak to nonpeak time-of-use, possibly due to changing consumption patterns in the industrial sectors.
Conclusions
The study draws two major conclusions. First, the growth in Uganda’s electricity demand in general and peak demand in particular has not stagnated as such but rather partially shifted from peak to nonpeak time-of-use zone. Second, electricity exports have contributed to growth of electricity peak demand. Importantly, higher electricity exports need to be considered in line with the system capacity given the current electricity spinning reserves of Uganda are less than 15 % of Uganda current installed capacity.
... Also there existed bi-directional causality between economic growth and energy consumption. Hannesson (2009) studied the relationship between energy consumption and GDP of 171 countries with the data from 1950 to 2004. He found that there exists a significant positive relationship between growth in energy use and growth in GDP for all the countries. ...
... Also most of these studies have covered the causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption (Jiuwen & Fangmei, 2011;Shuyun & Dongua, 2011;Ying et al., 2011). Hannesson (2009) studied the causality between economic growths, energy use and oil price for 171 countries for a period of five decades. The current study is derived from the earlier studies to the extent of selecting of variables and methodology. ...
This article examines the evolution of the concept of energy security and its proper meaning with regard to India’s energy sector. In the context of energy security, it aims to understand the impact of rising gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and change in oil prices on energy use; patterns in production, consumption and import of major sources of energy, such as crude oil, natural gas and coal in India; and the current structure of India’s energy sector and the impact of regulatory policies thereon. The evidence shows that GDP per capita and energy use per capita have a bidirectional causal relationship and these two also cointegrate. There also exists a unidirectional causal relationship from oil prices to energy use. No causal relationship is observed between oil prices and GDP per capita. For all the sources of energy, the indigenous production capacity is unable to match the consumption requirement, and hence there is an increased dependence on the import of these sources. A major impediment in the achievement of energy security by India is the current regulatory and policy environment that fails to make the sector more attractive for private sector participation and investment.
... GDP measures the national income and output for the country's economy [13]. According to [14], the real GDP is calculated by the real GDP per capita multiplying by the population. Meanwhile, the energy consumption primarily based on the country's production, exports and imports of various energy carriers and electricity production [14]. ...
... According to [14], the real GDP is calculated by the real GDP per capita multiplying by the population. Meanwhile, the energy consumption primarily based on the country's production, exports and imports of various energy carriers and electricity production [14]. ...
Today, energy crisis turn out to be a serious threat towards sustainability for developing countries since their energy demand is growing more rapidly than developed countries. On the other hand, fossil fuels cannot sustain anymore in the near future because of environmental impacts and depletion of the reserves. Malaysia is experiencing drastic growth in population and economy and requires exploring alternative energy sources to support its population and commercial energy demand. Biomass as the fourth largest energy resource in the world is abundant in the country. Malaysia is blessed with tropical and humid climate all year round which is a magnificent opportunity for fully exploiting agriculture and tropical forests potential. Since late 1990, the concept of waste-to-wealth had been promoted and became popular widely. This concept is based on unwanted wastes which are converted into valuable energy while reducing waste generated and increase the economy-efficiency mainly used for cooking, space heating and power generation. Currently, concerted efforts and various biomass energy programs are supporting by the government for development, demonstration and commercialization. This paper intent to present the current state and prospects of biomass utilization and strategies promoted for future developments in Malaysia.
... GDP measures the national income and output for the country's economy [13]. According to [14], the real GDP is calculated by the real GDP per capita multiplying by the population. Meanwhile, the energy consumption primarily based on the country's production, exports and imports of various energy carriers and electricity production [14]. ...
... According to [14], the real GDP is calculated by the real GDP per capita multiplying by the population. Meanwhile, the energy consumption primarily based on the country's production, exports and imports of various energy carriers and electricity production [14]. ...
Today, energy crisis turn out to be a serious threat towards sustainability for developing countries since their energy demand is growing more rapidly than developed countries. On the other hand, fossil fuels cannot sustain anymore in the near future because of environmental impacts and depletion of the reserves. Malaysia is experiencing drastic growth in population and economy and requires exploring alternative energy sources to support its population and commercial energy demand. Biomass as the fourth largest energy resource in the world is abundant in the country. Malaysia is blessed with tropical and humid climate all year round which is a magnificent opportunity for fully exploiting agriculture and tropical forests potential. Since late 1990, the concept of waste-to-wealth had been promoted and became popular widely. This concept is based on unwanted wastes which are converted into valuable energy while reducing waste generated and increase the economy-efficiency mainly used for cooking, space heating and power generation. Currently, concerted efforts and various biomass energy programs are supporting by the government for development, demonstration and commercialization. This paper intent to present the current state and prospects of biomass utilization and strategies promoted for future developments in Malaysia.
... Secondly, energy is part of the rest of the economy. (Wolde-Rufael, 2006;Hannesson, 2009;Al-Mulali, 2014;Singh and Vashishtha, 2020). ...
... No doubt, one of the critical industries in today's economy is the energy industry, and there is a connection between energy consumption and economic growth, c.f. [1][2][3]. All projects in the energy sector must be well planned and implemented. ...
Surprisingly, little is known whether the net present value (NPV) used as a financial metric in budgeting and investment planning to analyse a projects' profitability is universal. Meanwhile, the epochal green energy revolution ensuring carbon neutrality through green innovations requires enormous investments, and projects realised must ensure energy security. Therefore , there is a need to reanalyse financial metrics used in financial planning, including NPV. We eliminate this research gap and, based on data from Poland, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, the USA, the United Kingdom, Japan, Israel, and Euro Zone, explain why one may not perceive the currently used NPV formula as a universal financial metric. We show that the variable discount rate influences the time value of money. Therefore, there is a need to redefine the NPV formula. This study makes two main contributions. First, it creates new ground by revisiting the NPV formula in the emerging market context compared to stable economies and contributes to developing business and management theory. Second, we propose and empirically verify the modified NPV formula as a financial metric that considers the situation of energy firms in emerging markets. Thus, this research helps the capital budgeting process, and the modified NPV formula can help provide optimal outcomes in firms, helping to reduce financial risks. Our study contributes to a further contextual diagnosis of business projects and can, in turn, be relevant for other energy sector analyses.
... No doubt, one of the critical industries in today's economy is the energy industry, which enables energy production, consumption, and economic growth [1][2][3]. Although there are many studies of business model usage by different firms, e.g., [4][5][6][7], little is known about how the Business Model Canvas can be used by energy firms [8]. ...
So far, little is known about the Business Model Canvas development in the energy sector.
In this paper, we fill this knowledge gap and modify the Business Model Canvas. Based on the cause–effect analysis combined with the literature searching method, we suggest that Osterwalder’s Canvas for energy enterprise should be modified because the available Canvas adaptations cannot fully capture the energy enterprise’s business model or realise its business operations combined with the public interest. We propose a new original Canvas adaptation by adding two crucial blocks representing the mission, energy accountability, and impact on stakeholders in the Business Model Canvas. The findings make two main contributions. First, they contribute to developing entrepreneurship theory. We formulate an original definition of a business model, first showing the limitations of current definitions. We verify Chesbrough’s functions of business models. Second,
compared to earlier business model frameworks, the new model clearly points out that accountability in firms’ everyday businesses is at the core of business development. Moreover, this article formulates future research avenues in the energy sector and provides a helpful planning tool for practitioners.
... On the other hand, economic development and the innovation of new clean energy also play a great role in improving environmental quality. Energy consumption is indispensable for economic growth; development and the environment are inseparable (Hannesson, 2009;Akbare, 2014;Bay, 2018). It is vital for policy makers to design integrated policies of energy and the environment to achieve multiple targets (Zhang et al. 2019). ...
The production and consumption of energy are important driving forces for the economic and social development of a country, and environmental pollution caused by the consumption of energy especially for traditional energy has become a global focus in recent years. This paper analyzes the progress of energy production and consumption in China from 1957 to 2017 and characterizes the correlation between energy consumption and environmental pollution in China. Statistical methods, such as fit regression and gray relevance based on distance, are employed to describe their relations. It is shown that the total amount of energy production and consumption in China has steadily risen. Energy consumption has a strong link with environmental pollution, as demonstrated by its high correlations with the emission of waste gas and the generation of solid waste. The corresponding determination coefficients are 0.99 and 0.98, respectively. The results of the distance-based gray relevancy analysis indicate that, among all the correlations between different industrial wastes, the relation between discharged industrial solid waste and coal combustion is the largest (R = 0.79), while the relation between industrial solid waste and crude oil consumption is the smallest (R = 0.50). Compared to the other two wastes of the industry, energy consumption has the most impact on industrial wastewater, of which the average correlation coefficient is 0.61. The influence of coal combustion on environmental quality is the largest among the various energy consumption activities, with an average correlation coefficient of 0.76. Finally, the paper uses case analysis of remote sensing monitoring for environmental pollution to further discuss environmental problems. This study can provide necessary support for optimizing the domestic structure of energy consumption to further reduce pollution and improve environmental quality in China.
... Tras analizar estadísticas y proyecciones energéticas de los países pertenecientes a la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE), de 1960a 2000, Dincer y Dost (1997 observaron un estrecho vínculo entre la producción de energía, el consumo de energéticos y el producto interno bruto (PIB). De manera análoga, Hannesson (2009) encontró una relación positiva entre el crecimiento en el consumo de energéticos y el crecimiento del PIB, después de analizar datos de 171 países para el periodo de 1950 a 2004. Esta misma relación entre consumo energético y PIB fue estudiada por Stern (2018), quien enfatizó cómo en los países más desarrollados la intensidad energética está disminuyendo el uso de tecnologías limpias y fuentes de energía amigables con el ambiente, como consecuencia de la eficiencia energética. ...
... [1], Mačerinskienė and Kremer-Matyškevič [2], Al-Mulali [3], Simionescu et al. [4], and Hannesson [5] prove the close relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth of economies all over the world. This means that the development of the energy industry is not only an indication of the level of development of a particular economy, but it can also significantly support this process. ...
The aim of the study is to identify the main determinants of the capital structure of energy industry companies in the European Union. The study was based on a panel of 6122 companies from 25 EU countries, operating between 2011 and 2018. The study used multiple regression analysis. We have obtained strong evidence for a positive relationship between corporate debt and tangibility and size, and a negative relationship for profitability and liquidity. The factors that also affect the share of debt in capital have turned out to be growth (positive relationship) and non-debt tax shield (negative relationship), but the statistical significance of these relationships is ambiguous. We have shown that growth of industry business risk is accompanied by an increase in corporate debt and this is a distinguishing feature of the energy industry. For country-specific capital structure determinants, we have obtained strong evidence for the negative relationship between GDP growth, the level of stakeholder rights protection, the degree of capital markets development, and indebtedness of the companies studied. There has been moderate support for the hypotheses of a positive effect of inflation, taxation, and the degree of financial institutions development. Our study has also shown a negative impact of the volume of energy consumption and the share of renewable sources in its production and a positive impact of market monopolization on the indebtedness of companies from the energy industry in the EU.
... More recent studies, such as Hannesson (2009) have included other variables such as the price of oil, reaching more robust conclusions on the dependence on fossil fuels and broader geopolitical issues, such as energy security. ...
The present research investigated the utilization of econometric models in studies related to the generation of electricity from biomass, through a bibliometric analysis. The general objective of the study was to analyze the publications, from 1987 to 2018, that explored the potential of econometric models involving biomass for electricity generation. Additionally, it was intended to investigate the most cited articles and authors, seeking to verify the most relevant themes and the main econometric techniques used in the analyses; verify the countries most engaged in these researches, drawing a parallel with their current energy strategies; identify future trends of studies in this area. For this, the SCOPUS database was used, selecting articles in English, from the keywords “Econometrics, biomass and Electricity”. The data collected with the literature review were compiled on thematic maps, with the help of the Vosviewer software, which realized analysis of citation, co-citation, co-authorship and keywords. SciMat software was also used, which generated from key terms, longitudinal strategic maps that allowed identifying future trends on the theme discussed in this article. The results indicated that the main research fronts in this field, are related to the use of econometrics to estimate the impacts of energy generation from biomass in variables such as economic growth, energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions.
... One of them is that developing our world uses energy. The increase of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of economies and the increase of energy consumption have been linked for decades (Hannesson, 2009;Al-mulali & Hakim Mohammed, 2015), with a few exceptions. But this development has come at a cost. ...
Multiple crises would develop if global temperature is not limited to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Decision-making should aim to reduce the main driver of global warming: greenhouse gases emissions. Energy transitions target as much as 70% of annual anthropogenic emissions, coming from fossil fuels in the energy, industry, transport and building sectors; but transitions are not happening fast enough considering greenhouse gases emissions kept growing during the 2000-10 decade. Thus, a novel approach is needed to optimise energy transitions. Machine learning using multi-output random forest regression explains how 56 inputs (influencers) affect five outputs (energy transition outcomes) using 18 years of data across more than 200 countries. Random forests have low bias and high accuracy for non-linear, non-deterministic and highly complex systems such as energy transitions. The algorithmic model shows that the 56 inputs are ranked differently in prediction importance across income groups. For richer economies, air pollution, CO2 intensity and renewable power potential are highly influential; whereas for poorer economies, governance, quality of life, power markets and entrepreneurship are more influential to drive the transition. These results help draft policy recommendations for each income group and are further explored by the case study of Indonesia's feed-in tariffs.
... Dijkgraaf és Vollebergh [2005] szintén megkérdőjelezte az EKC alkalmazását, azért, mert a gazdasági növekedés és a környezeti degradáció szorosan összefügg a fosszilis tüzelőanyagok felhasználásának szintjével, különösen az árral. Azzal érvel, hogy "a gazdasági növekedés fokozott energiafelhasználást igényel, amelyre rövid és középtávon nem létezik más indikátor, mint a fosszilis tüzelőanyag-felhasználás" (Hannesson, 2009;Mazur et al., 2015). Arouri (2012) azért vonja kétségbe az energiafelhasználás és a szén-dioxid-kibocsátás közötti EKC-t, mert a fordulópontok sokszor vagy nagyon alacsony, vagy irreálisan magas jövedelemnél következnek be. ...
A Kuznets-görbe hipotézis (EKC) szerint a gazdasági növekedés korai szakaszában járó társadalmakban a jólét és a termelés növekedése fokozott környezeti szennyezéssel jár. Később, egy bizonyos jövedelmi szint elérésével a további gazdasági növekedés emelkedésére a környezetszennyezés mérséklődése kezdődik. Ez a pont a fejlett országoknál magasabb gazdasági növekedésnél következik be, a fejlődőknél jóval alacsonyabb GDP-és szén-dioxid értékek mellett. Miután a szakirodalomban kevés egységes eredmény van a Kuznets-görbéről, a tanulmány arra a kérdésre keresi a választ, hogy milyen egyéb tényezők okozhatnak eltéréseket: milyen gazdasági, társadalmi, vagy épp környezeti tényezők befolyásolják a görbe alakulását. A szekunder kutatás az első tanulmányoktól indul, és foglalja össze napjainkig a környezeti Kuznets-görbét alakító tényezőket. Kiderül, hogy a pénzügyi fejlettségnek, az urbanizációnak, az intézményrendszereknek, és a kereskedelemnek is jelentős szerepe van. Magyarország azon EU-országok közé tartozik, amelyek már a posztindusztriális szakaszban vannak, de a gazdasági növekedés – hosszú távon nézve – még nem hozta el a csökkenő károsanyag-kibocsátást. A pénzügyi fejlettség, a bankszektor és a tőzsde szerepének inkább káros hatása igazolódott be, mint amit várnánk, például a hitelezés és a befektetési szektor révén várható környezettudatos beruházások terjedésétől. Az eredmények szerint az alapvető növekedés-kibocsátás összefüggésének feltárásához mindenképp érdemes a környezeti Kuznets-görbét számítani, de az eredmények kiterjesztése és egységes energiapolitikai intézkedések tervezése csak magas jövedelmű országcsoportokra javasolt.
... One of them is that developing our world uses energy. In fact, the increase of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of economies and the increase of energy consumption have been linked for decades (Hannesson, 2009;Al-mulali & Hakim Mohammed, 2015), with a few exceptions. But this development has come at a cost that is increasingly taking a toll on our societies and our ability to deal with the consequences. ...
We are not moving fast enough to avoid climate change’s catastrophic effects. If global temperature raises beyond 2°C compared to pre-industrial times we would face rises in sea levels, 23 times more marine heat waves, 343% more warm extremes over land, 4% more rainfall intensity, 194 million people exposed to severe drought, and 13% less global GDP in 2100 among other effects. Decision-making should reduce the main driver of global warming: greenhouse gases emissions. Countries could improve their decision-making to address this slowness by focusing on energy transitions: complex, slow, irregular, non-linear changes in energy systems. Globally, energy transitions could address around 70% of annual anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions coming from fossil fuels in the energy, industry, transport, and buildings sectors. Energy transitions target policies, market design, communication, governance, technology, society, politics and economics. Due to energy transitions’ complexity and slowness, fact-based decision-making could speed up the reduction of greenhouse gases.
To speed up energy transitions with fact-based recommendations for countries, this work proposes understanding energy transitions with machine learning. If an energy transition behaves as a system, it has inputs and outputs. Then, to design useful recommendations, it is crucial to know which combination of inputs change outputs the most. A quantitative approach through multi-output random forest regression, linear regression and decision trees algorithms using 18 years of data across more than 200 countries/areas, helps to outline the recommendations for countries according to their income groups.
This work identifies five outputs or “energy transition outcomes” (ETO) and 56 inputs or “influencers” based on literature review. The ETOs are: renewable energy installed capacity per capita, renewable energy as a share of total final energy consumption, access to electricity, energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions per capita. The 56 influencers fall into four groups: governance and policies, financial, technical & infrastructural, and socioeconomic.
Algorithmic modelling is ideal to understand complex systems such as the energy transition. Multi-output random forest regression both predicts the five ETOs together and ranks influencers by their predictive importance. The algorithm’s predictive accuracy is expressed mathematically through the Root Mean Squared Error and the coefficient of determination (R2), and empirically through country stories, where the model’s predictions are assessed with real life examples of what happened in Germany’s Energiewende and Indonesia’s Feed-In Tariffs.
Fact-based decision-making will hopefully join efforts with policy analysis and market design to craft more effective energy transition solutions. The call for action is now. Governments, businesses, and citizens of the world must take full advantage of recent technological advancements. It is time to drive on the road less travelled of algorithmic modelling, using data, experiences and knowledge to get to a carbon neutral economy faster.
... have compared this change to the structural paradigm shift of the early 20th century, which had turned fossil fuels into the foundation of the world economy [Helm 2005[Helm , 2007. In the face of growing energy needs, dwindling natural resources, and more stringent calls to mitigate climate change, there have been numerous demands to transition towards low-carbon energy mixes that would nonetheless be compliant with steady economic growth [Richmond and Kaufman 2006;Hannesson 2009]. As the socio-technical transition literature has highlighted, paradigmatic transitions are essentially based on 'multi-actor processes' [Grin et al. 2010: 11], which fundamentally alter socio-technical systems by triggering 'far-reaching changes along different directions: technical, material, organizational, institutional, political, economic and socio-cultural' [Markard, Raven and Truffer 2012: 956]. ...
At the turn of the 1990s, a very large part of UK energy utilities was transferred from the public sector into private ownership. When analysing the era of privatisation, recent research on public policy has concluded that public authorities’ ability to influence or shape national energy choices has been substantially weakened. Since the mid-2000s, however, tight cooperation between private investors and UK public regulators and policy-makers has emerged as a critical factor to meet the challenges posed by the energy transition. How have the British public authorities tried to get private actors on board and to involve them not only in the delivery and funding of energy services, as has been the case with public-private partnerships, but also in the decision-making process? This article identifies various schemes spearheaded by the UK government to breed or revive innovation in the privately-owned renewable and nuclear energy industries. This analysis explores the various strategies used to facilitate ‘decompartmentalising’ initiatives and ensure a smooth transition towards a neo-corporatist revival of the Triple Helix involving industry, academia, and government. It shows how these hybrid processes offer valuable insight for analysing and reconceptualising the boundary between the public and the private sectors. Based on this case study, this analysis ultimately demonstrates how the public/private dichotomy should be reassessed using the concepts of hybrid roles and responsibilities.
... La literatura económica destaca la importancia de la energía en el crecimiento económico. La evidencia empírica muestra que hay una relación positiva importante entre el aumento del uso de la energía y el crecimiento del PIB, y que la relación describe una pauta similar a una curva de Kuznets: el uso de energía aumenta rápidamente con el PIB hasta alcanzar un pico a partir del cual los cambios en la estructura económica y la adopción de nuevas tecnologías hacen que el uso de energía decline con el PIB (Hannesson, 2009). Sin embargo, aunque el descenso en la intensidad energética en el sector productivo tienden a caer con cierta rapidez a partir de cierto nivel de desarrollo, la intensidad energética total cae lentamente, debido básicamente a la expansión del uso residencial y sobre todo en el transporte (Medlock y Soligo, 2001). ...
... Accordingly, it can be said that gas prices have a significant effect on industrial production in the economy of Turkey during the respective periods. This finding supports the findings of prior studies on energy prices, industrial production and economic growth in the literature (Kumar, 2009;Hannesson, 2009;Monjazeb et al., 2013;Edirneligil and Mucuk, 2014;Öztürk, 2015;Ebele and Terhemba, 2015;Gökmenoğlu et al., 2015;Arshad et al., 2016). A decrease in gas prices is expected in the competitive environment in imports along with TANAP. ...
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline
Project (TANAP) on industrial production in Turkey. The TANAP is a project which ensures the security of
the country’s natural gas supply and encourages a decrease in energy prices. So, this study investigates
TANAP’s efforts to decrease gas prices, as well as the effects of gas prices on industrial production.
Design/methodology/approach – The data include gas prices and industrial production index series.
Gas prices are approached for industrial users (nonresidential) in Turkey and industrial production index
series have been discussed for whole industries. The Johansen cointegration method has been used to analyze the data, spanning the period from 2005M01 to 2015M11.
Findings – Results indicate that the decrease in the energy prices has a positive effect on the industrial
production index, which is accepted as a basic sign of economic growth. Accordingly, it has been proved that
gas priced had a significant effect on industrial production in Turkish economy during the respective periods.
Research limitations/implications – This study has supported the argument that TANAP helps to
decrease gas prices in Turkey. It can be said that a decrease in gas price is expected to have positive effect on industrial production in the long-term.
Originality/value – The present study shows that projects such as TANAP can help gas importing
countries like Turkey to decrease gas prices and increase industrial production. In this context, this study
supports projects that decreasing gas prices for energy importing countries in the long term.
Keywords Energy sector, Econometric, Time series analysis, ADF unit root test, Gas prices,
Gregory Hansen co-integration test, Industrial production, Johansen cointegration method, TANAP,
Zivot Andrews tests
Paper type Research paper
... Panayotou (1995Panayotou ( , 2000 has also given a critical overview of the research done from 1992 to 2000. 4 Desai (1986) has found that the GDP elasticity of energy consumption for LDCs is found to be less than one. 5 See also, inter alia, Asafu-Adjaye (2000), Lee (2005), Wolde-Rufael (2006), Mahadevan and Asafu-Adjaye (2007), Mechrara (2007), Hannesson (2009( ), Payne (2010, Pirlogea and Cicea (2012), Fuinhas and Margues (2012); Apergis and Tang (2013), Ouedraogo (2013), Hamdi et al. (2014). 6 Other researchers utilize econometric and non-econometric tools in order to decompose the main determinants of energy intensity. ...
The aim of this paper is to empirically explore the relationship between energy demand and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and to investigate the role of regional externalities on per capita Final Energy Consumption (FEC) in 34 countries during the period from 2005 to 2013. The paper utilizes a Dynamic Panel Generalized Method of Moments (DPGGM) approach in order to analyse the effect of real GDP growth rate on FEC through an Error Correction Model (ECM) and spatial econometric techniques in order to examine clustered patterns of energy consumption. The results show that a) the demand is elastic both in the industrial and the household/services sectors, b) electricity and natural gas are demand substitutes, c) the relationship between real GDP growth rate and per capita energy consumption exhibits an inverted U-shape for all the sample countries under scrutiny (34 countries, Eurozone and EU28), but not for all the employed sectors of the economy, d) price (electricity and gas) and GDP growth asymmetries are supported from the employed parametric tests, and, e) distance does not affect per capita FEC, but economic neighbours have a strong positive effect.
... The most of literature focus on the relationship between energy and different components of the environmental mechanism-(resource productivity, economic growth, greenhouse emissions related industry, CO2 emissions and complementary components) [2][3], there are new research trends dealing with the relevance of a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 energy in achieving sustainable development and economic growth. In literature [4] has been highlighted a direct and significant influence of energy usage on economic growth on numerous countries surveyed, implicit from the perfective of GDP growth, welfare and resource productivity. ...
Contemporary economies are strongly reliant on energy and analyzing the determining factors that trigger the changes in energy paradigm and their impact upon economic growth is a topical research subject. Our contention is that energy paradigm plays a major role in achieving the sustainable development of contemporary economies. In order to prove this the panel data methodology of research was employed, namely four panel unit root tests (LLC, IPS, F-ADF and F-PP) aiming to reveal the connections and relevance among 17 variables denoting energy influence on economic development. Moreover, it was introduced a specific indicator to express energy consumption per capita. Our findings extend the classical approach of the changes in energy paradigm and their impact upon economic growth and offer a comprehensive analysis which surpasses the practices and policy decisions in the field.
... The literature identifies four hypotheses that describe the types of causal relationships between electricity consumption and economic growth which are summarised here: (1) the neutrality hypothesis; (2) the conservation hypothesis; (3) the growth hypothesis; and (4) the feedback hypothesis. Collectively, these theories explain all possible causal relationships between electricity consumption and economic growth (Ozturk 2010;Payne 2010;Rögnvaldur 2009). ...
We examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and sectoral output growth in Uganda. First, we use vector error correction techniques to estimate the long-run relationship between electricity consumption and GDP growth. Second, we apply Granger causality tests to determine the direction of this relationship. Third, we disaggregate GDP into its major sectors of agriculture, industry and services and test for Granger causality between sectoral output growth and electricity consumption. At the macro-level, results suggest long-run unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to GDP. At the sectoral level, results indicate long-run causality running from electricity consumption to industry; a unidirectional short-run causality running from services sector to electricity consumption; and neutrality in the agricultural sector. These results have important implications for policy. In particular, policies that improve electricity generation and consumption will accelerate growth in Uganda by facilitating industrial sector growth. Moreover, electricity conservation policies can be applied in the services sector without hurting growth.
... Percebois (2007), by other side, points a listing of factors that influence in the vulnerability of energy generation and relates several economic and financial factors to this indicator. At last, Hannesson (2009) concluded that a positive relation can be established between the growth of energy use and the economic growth. In this context, it seems like energy consumption is closely related to economic development, as Tamazian et al. (2009) remark. ...
The concerns with sustainability in environmental and social realm led to an expressive increase in generation of energy of renewable sources in last years. This paper addresses an investigation on possible associations between the increase of renewable energies generation and the economic and financial performance indicators of countries. The multiple linear regressions method is applied to a data panel of the period from 2005 to 2008, in 54 countries. The outcomes point to an association between higher generation of renewable energies and lower GDP growths, higher per capita income and higher investments in gross fixed capital formation, besides other interesting associations.
... As a control for the effects of wealth, the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is included in the model (Cheon and Urpelainen, 2012;Popp et al., 2011). A country's level of prosperity could influence the investments in RETs, as RETs are much more expensive than fossil energy technologies, and richer countries could thus tend to invest more in them (Delucchi and Jacobson, 2011;Evans et al., 2009;Hannesson, 2009;International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 2006;IPCC, 2011;United Nations, 2004). Looking at GDP development in the 18 OECD countries, it can be observed that GDP has been rising from 1990 to 2010 in all countries between 11 and 36 per cent, whereby no steady growth but rather cyclical upward and downward movements took place. ...
Purpose
– Researchers began investigating the diffusion of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in the late 1990s, and, up to today, a variety of authors have presented different approaches to understand the special characteristics of RET diffusion. However, one factor has been thus far disregarded in the research: the influence of raw material prices on RET diffusion. The dependence of a multitude of technologies on raw material prices became especially apparent in recent years due to rather sudden and volatile price movements in raw material markets. Thus, the aim of this work is to contribute to the research by providing evidence for a direct linkage between raw material price developments and RET diffusion.
Design/methodology/approach
– A theoretical framework used in this article derives from the concept of induced diffusion. This empirical study is based on publicly available data of 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over 20 years and uses multivariate regression analysis to identify the corresponding diffusion models for selected established and emerging RETs.
Findings
– Results reveal that crude oil prices play a crucial role in the diffusion of emerging RETs. In addition, a joint reflection of induced diffusion and path dependencies as the theoretical foundation of RET diffusion models might be reasonable.
Originality/value
– This paper makes a significant contribution to the literature on induced diffusion in the field of renewable energies by providing insights from publicly available data from 18 OECD-countries. The findings are highly relevant for managers of the energy industry and policymakers in this field.
... For the period 1998 to 2009 the economic growth (measured by GDP) had been growing at average rate of 6.6% while electricity consumption at 4.5% per year. Though the GDP growth rate is described as medium [4], Malaysia is one of the largest electricity consumers among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations member countries [2]. It is estimated that for the period 2004-2030 the GDP growth is going to be 4.6% [5] whereas, the peak demand for electricity is estimated to be 23,099 MW in 2020 [6]. ...
Currently, around 90% of Malaysia's electricity generation depends on fossil fuels. This reliance, in a long run, is not a secure option. However, renewable energy sources can contribute to a sustainable electricity generation system; but diversifying fuel supply chain is a complex process. Therefore, the aim of this paper is two folds. Firstly, various renewable resources potential are reviewed, and secondly an assessment model is developed for prioritizing renewable options. Four major resources, hydropower, solar, wind, biomass (including biogas and municipal solid waste) are considered. Their electricity generation potential, along with any likely shortcoming is also discussed. Moreover, using a multi-perspective approach based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an assessment model is developed. AHP model employs four main criteria, technical, economical, social and environmental aspects, and twelve sub-criteria. From the review it was found that renewable resources seem to have a sufficient potential to develop a sustainable electricity system. Furthermore, AHP model prioritize those resources, revealing that solar is the most favorable resource followed by biomass. Hydropower and wind however, are ranked third and fourth, respectively. The model also shows that each resource is inclined towards a particular criterion; solar towards economical, biomass towards social, hydropower towards technical, and wind towards environmental aspect. Besides reporting AHP model for the first time in Malaysian context, the assessment performed in this study, can serve decision makers to formulate long-term energy policy aiming for sustainability.
... Energy, particularly fossil fuels is an essential input for economic development which had powered economic growth ever since the industrial revolution (Saatci and Dumrul, 2013;D'Alessandro et al., 2010;Hannesson, 2009). The role of energy in economic development resulted in the world consumption for energy to increase significantly from 7219 Mtoe in 1980to 13,113 Mtoe in 2011(International Energy Agency, 2011. ...
Energy is an important catalyst for development. Malaysia is very fortunate to be
endowed with oil reserves. However, these reserves are finite and not renewable. Being cognizant of
this, the Malaysian government had implemented various energy policies and strategies to manage and
safeguard its oil reserves for better energy security as well as to promote prudent use of energy. This
paper aims to highlight the electricity sector in Malaysia and the various policies and strategies
implemented thus far. By reviewing the existing energy policies and strategies as well as their
implications, this paper suggests prospective policy and strategy options towards achieving better
energy efficiency and emission reduction in the residential sector. The trends of electricity
consumption and underlying factors influencing the growth of electricity consumption are also
discussed.
... The role of energy in economic growth is underlined in a number of studies [see for example, Tugcu et al. [48]; Ozturk [24]; Belke et al. [49] and Hannesson [50]]. However, the model used by Tang and Tan [45] in energy led growth and financial led growth hypothesis in the context of Malaysia is distinct from other models as they uses the generic long run energy consumption model i.e., lnðECÞ t ¼ a 0 þ a 1 lnðGDPPCÞ t þ a 2 lnðRPRICESÞ t þ a 3 lnðFDIÞ t þ a 4 lnðFDÞ t þ 3 t ...
The relationship between energy led growth, foreign direct investment (FDI) led growth and financial development led growth hypothesis has been widely debated inside the academic circles. There is a general consensus that these factors are a major cause of growth and vice versa. The objective of this study is to analyze the causal relationship among energy consumption, economic growth, relative price, financial development (FD) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Asia using a bivariate and multivariate framework. This study covers a sample from 1975 to 2011. The results of cointegration suggests that variables are cointegrated at their first order i.e, I(1) variables and there has been long-run relationship exist between them. The study finds that both energy consumption and economic growth Granger causes each other in the short and long run. The study supported five growth hypotheses in the context of South Asia and these hypotheses have important policy implications in the South Asian region i.e., a) energy led growth hypothesis, b) energy led financial development, c) FDI led growth hypothesis, d) finance led growth hypothesis and e) FDI led relative prices are supported by the findings from this study. The finding of bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth implies that South Asia is an energy dependent country. Energy is a prominent resource for financial sector development in South Asia, further developed financial sector need more energy resources, and this result indicates that energy consumption Granger cause FD and FD Granger cause energy consumption in South Asian region. Moreover, there is a bidirectional link between FDI & economic growth; and between FDI & relative prices of energy in South Asia which explains that FDI increases energy prices in the host countries, whereas brighter growth prospects in the host countries attract an increased flow of FDI in this region. Finally, existing energy infrastructure fails to comply with speedy FDI and thus put strain on the energy channels which leads to higher energy prices. This quest supports the FDI led relative price hypothesis in South Asian region.
... However, not all impacts of energy use are equally harmful to the environment and human health [36]. Hannesson [13] concludes that most of the world's primary energy comes from fossil fuels; it is going to be very difficult to reconcile reductions in carbon dioxide emissions with continued economic growth, especially in poor and medium rich countries. ...
This study investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption (i.e., nuclear energy consumption, electricity power consumption and fossil fuels energy consumption) and economic growth; energy consumption and industrialization (i.e., industrial GDP, beverages and cigarettes); energy consumption and environmental degradation (i.e., carbon dioxide emissions, population density and water resources); and finally, energy consumption and resource depletion (i.e., mineral depletion, energy depletion, natural depletion and net forest depletion) in Pakistan over a period of 1975–2011. The Granger causality (GC) test in the frequency domain using the Pierce framework has been employed. This GC test in the frequency domain relies on a modified version of the coefficient of coherence, which they estimate in a nonparametric fashion and for which they derive the distributional properties. The results infer that there exists uni-directional causality running from nuclear energy to industrial GDP, nuclear energy to water resources; and nuclear energy to carbon dioxide emissions but not vice versa. Similarly, electric power consumption Granger cause agriculture GDP but not other way around, further, there is a bi-directional causality running between electric power consumption to population density in Pakistan. Fossil fuel Granger cause industrial GDP and there is a bidirectional causality running between fossil fuel and population density. Moreover, the findings show that the nature of causality among nuclear energy consumption & agriculture; nuclear energy consumption & population density; electric power consumption & cigarettes production; fossil fuel & cigarettes; and fossil fuels and agriculture value added are in favour of the neutrality hypothesis in Pakistan. The conclusion has been strengthen and have a very strong implications in the context of Pakistan, where we have economic and financial constraints, and thus agreeing the bottom line, “living with the just enough”.
The 12th Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlighted the importance of ensuring sustainable consumption and production patterns. Researchers have found that energy subsidies may encourage overconsumption, misuse, and moral hazard problems. Hence, there is a need to rationalize inefficient energy subsidies. Consequently, the Malaysian government has been implementing a subsidy reformation program to improve energy efficiency and reduce fiscal burdens. This study aims to identify and compare the impacts of energy subsidies and oil prices on energy consumption across the agricultural, industrial and service sectors in Malaysia. It is critical for policymakers to better understand
the role of energy subsidies in influencing energy consumption, especially the magnitude to which energy subsidies influence energy consumption, in order to structure a subsidy reform strategy which effectively addresses the energy overconsumption issue. In this study, a time series dataset covering the years of 1978 through 2018 is analyzed. The ARDL approach and Granger causality test were employed to determine meaningful statistical evidence and revealed four important findings. Firstly, energy
subsidies have a positive relationship with energy consumption. Secondly, oil prices have a negative relationship with energy consumption and energy subsidies significantly interact with oil prices to affect energy consumption. This significant positive moderating effect suggests that energy subsidies may counteract the negative impact of oil prices on energy consumption. Thirdly, output has the greatest (positive) impact on energy consumption. And finally, energy subsidies drive higher outputs in the agricultural sector.
The paper examines the dependence of economic growth on the level of energy consumption in various countries of the world, divided into groups according to the level of economic development and geographical location (macro-regions). It is shown that the impact of energy consumption on gross domestic product (GDP) is stronger in non-OECD countries than in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, which is explained by the extensive nature of economic development. This relationship is clearly seen in such macro-regions as the Asia-Pacific region, Africa, Central and South America. The energy intensity of the countries of the world is calculated, and the main trends for different groups of countries are analyzed.
Fossil fuel (FF) burning, the main energy source of the modern world’s economy, remains the major source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and pollutants in the atmosphere. Based on 18 years (2001–2018) of aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite, FFCO2 emissions from the Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic Carbon dioxide, and gross domestic product (GDP) data from the World Bank, we found that air quality, FF consumption, and economy are strongly bonded at the continental scale but decoupled at the national level under favorable policies. The comparison of AOD vs PM2.5 and NO2 over urbanized areas shows that the pollutants leading to the AOD load can vary significantly by country. A strong connection between GDP and FFCO2 emissions indicates that economic growth deeply replies on FF consumption in most countries. Meanwhile, air pollution is more associated with the growing trend than the level of development of a country. With more mature technologies and renewable energy, economies can keep growing without compromising their environment and population health.
Today, in many countries resources such as petroleum, coal and natural gas, which are defined as primary energy sources in the industry, are being used extensively. The use of these resources increases the amount of carbon emissions, which are extremely negative environmental impacts. In this context, what is the effect of energy consumption and carbon emissions on economic growth is a major problem. In this study, the relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions with economic growth of developed and developing 81 countries is examined. That is to say, in the survey, it has been tried to determine in what direction and size the consumption amount of sources used in the electricity energy and carbon emissions emitted to the environment by energy consumption in selected countries. In the scope of the study, 81 countries were analyzed with panel data analysis period of 1995-2013. According to the results of the research, energy consumption in research countries has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Accordingly, the increase in energy consumption has had a positive impact on economic growth by reducing consumption costs. The effect of carbon emissions on economic growth is significant and positive. According to the research, the increase in the use of primary energy resources in the industry due to the economic development in the research countries has increased the carbon emissions and hence the economic growth.
Although the trend of increase in energy consumption
has made possible fast economic growth of industrial
modern society, but because of combustion pollutants
emission and increase in density of carbon dioxide in
atmosphere has made irreversible changes in the world.
Not only this trend is destroying finite and nonrenewable
energies, but also it is releasing numerous of pollutants
into the receptive environment (air, water, and soil).
In this article, existence of causality relation between
energy carriers' consumption with economic growth and
carbon dioxide gas emission in sectors of Iran's
economy (residential, general and commercial, industry,
agriculture, and transportation) in period of 1997 to
2012 using causality Toda and Yamamoto method has
been studied.
In the agriculture sector, results show a unidirectional
causality relation of energy carrier consumption to
economic growth. In transportation, residential, general
and economic sectors existence of bidirectional causality
relation of economic growth variable and carbon dioxide
gas emission with energy carriers has been verified. In
industry sector, a unidirectional causality relation of
economic growth to gas, electricity to economic growth
and bidirectional causality relation of coal exist. Also,
there is a unidirectional causality relation of carbon
dioxide emission to oil and bidirectional causality
relation carbon dioxide gas emission to other variables
except oil exist.
Keywords: Energy Carriers, Economic Growth, Co2,
Toda and Yamamoto Causality.
JEL: O13, O44, C22.
Purpose
The aim of this study is to describe the causal relationships between energy use, development, and productivity in Colombia.
Design/Methodology/Approach
The study was conducted by application of several econometric techniques. The time-series methodology used in this is based on the Granger causality test, which has been found appropriate by using the cointegration technique.
Findings
This study shows that economic growth and development drive total energy consumption. The results regarding the relationship among energy, poverty, and inequality indicate that increases in gross domestic product and energy supply per capita contribute to decrease poverty. The results also confirm that access to modern energy services helps to decrease poverty. Moreover, the improvements in energy efficiency and decreases in CO2 emissions have contributed to development and growth.
Practical Implications
The results of this study showed the importance of the formulation and adoption of good policies and strategies that encourage sustainable energy use to improve growth and development, especially in developing countries.
Originality/Value
This chapter provides an empirical approach for finding the causal relationship between development, productivity, and energy consumption in Colombia. The methodology and the results used in this study could be used for exploring the importance of energy in the productivity and economic development.
This research empirically explores the relation between carbon dioxide emission and economic growth during the period 1992-2010, using panel data on the European Union countries. Both fixed and random effect models are employed to test the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP per capita. While no U-shaped EKC was confirmed empirically for all 28 current EU member states, the graphical analysis demonstrates a justified turning point for CO2 emissions as GDP per capita reaches the level of 23,000 USD. Furthermore, there is a firm empirical ground for the EKC hypothesis based on data from 16 older, relatively high-income EU states. Thus, though not empirically confirmed, there is ample data verifying the existence of the EKC in EU economies.
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationship that exists between energy consumption, environmental pollution and per capita economic growth in Tanzania. The energy consumption is represented by electricity usage in kilowatt hours (kWh) per capita, while environmental pollution is represented by carbon emission per metric tons and economic growth by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.
Design/methodology/approach
This investigation is made based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve using time series annual data from 1975 to 2013 by applying the more robust causality technique of Toda and Yamamoto non-Causality test (1995), Impulse response and Variance Decomposition, Augumented and Dickey–Fueller test and Philips and Perron Test of unit root tests.
Findings
Economic growth rate (LGDP) and energy consumption per capita (LENGY), both being unidirectional, cause environmental pollution through carbon emission (LCO 2 ) in Tanzania. Interestingly, after using impulse response, a significant and positive economic growth (GDP per capita) was found due to shocks from electricity per capita (energy consumption) and carbon emission (LCO 2 ) with time. The Variance Decomposition suggested that the percentage of the variations due to shocks or innovations of economic growth (LGDP) and energy consumption (LENGY) to carbon emission is very high and significant, accounting to 46 and 41 per cent, respectively, in 10 years to come.
Research limitations/implications
The study recommends that, in the future, the relationship be examined using super-exogeneity causality tests that takes into consideration the changes in policy or regime in contrast to Toda and Yamamoto. Furthermore, the addition of other variables such as fixed capital formation and labor force, which were not considered in this study, may result in strong correlation.
Practical implications
The results imply that the government of Tanzania can adopt environment conservation and energy saving policies without affecting its economic growth. As a matter of fact, to put a stop to persistent environmental pollution in Tanzania, the energy saving policy should be put in place rather quickly. It is imperative that the government implements policies and strategies that ensure continuous economic growth without forsaking the environment.
Originality/value
Despite the increase in carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Tanzania since 2000, to date, no previous work has been done to investigate their multivariate relationship. This is the first study that uses the Toda and Yamamoto non-Causality test, Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition Analysis to investigate a trivariate relationship of the variables mentioned above.
As the world struggles to emerge from a global recession and financial crisis, countries are looking for solutions to improve domestic economic performance and put people back to work. Global energy demand and prices have been resilient during the recession, leading policy-makers in countries with the potential to produce energy to look to that sector as a potential engine for economic growth. The objective of this study is to undertake an empirical study on linkages among energy consumption, economic growth, FDI, relative price and financial development (i.e., broad money supply - M-2) in low income, middle income, high income non-OECD, high income OECD, South Africa, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the aggregate data of the World over a period of 1975-2011. Data is analyzed by the Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS) test of unit root to find out the order of integration. The long-run relationship is investigated through the Pedroni [37] test of panel cointegration. At last, the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method is used for estimation of the impact of growth factors on energy consumption in these regions. The results reveal that each variable seem to have a unit root at level, so we could investigate cointegration of the series at level. On the basis of Pedroni test, we can bring to a close that series are cointegrated. The results of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) suggests that GDP per capita has a positive impact on energy consumption in low income, middle income, South Africa, MENA and aggregate data of the World. However, in high income OECD and non-OECD regions, there is no significant relationship been found in both regions. FDI plays a pivotal role in increasing energy demand in middle income, high income OECD and non-OECD region which implies that whatever other benefits may accrue from FDI, it should not be expected to generate sufficient energy in South Africa, MENA and the World directly. FDI enhancement policies should be supplemented to stimulate growth in those regions. Broad money supply exerts positive impact on energy demand in low income, middle income, high income non-OECD and MENA regions. Finally, relative prices has either a positive impact i.e., middle income region and/or a negative impact on energy consumption i.e., low income, high income OECD and MENA region. The results conclude that lower energy prices reduce input costs for nearly all goods and services in the regions, thus making them more affordable.
One of the critical challenges in achieving sustainability is finding a way to meet the energy consumption needs of a growing population in the face of increasing economic prosperity and finite resources. According to ecological footprint computations, the global resource consumption began exceeding planetary supply in 1977 and by 2030, global energy demand, population, and gross domestic product are projected to greatly increase over 1977 levels. With the aim of finding sustainable energy solutions, we present a simple yet rigorous procedure for assessing and counterbalancing the relationship between energy demand, environmental impact, population, GDP, and energy efficiency. Our analyses indicated that infeasible increases in energy efficiency (over 100 %) would be required by 2030 to return to 1977 environmental impact levels and annual reductions (2 and 3 %) in energy demand resulted in physical, yet impractical requirements; hence, a combination of policy and technology approaches is needed to tackle this critical challenge. This work emphasizes the difficulty in moving toward energy sustainability and helps to frame possible solutions useful for policy and management.
This paper's aim is to examine the relationship between energy consumption by fuel end economic growth in a comparative analysis for Spain, Romania and European Union. Applying a methodology in three steps on data for the 1990–2010 period, long-run and short-run relationships are revealed. On long-run, the energy consumption with total petroleum products source yields evidence of linkage with economic growth (proxied by Gross Domestic Product per capita in constant prices) for both two states and European Union. Furthermore, on short run only two relationships were emphasized both sustaining the growth hypothesis. So, in Romania, renewable energy consumption influences on short run the economic performance of activities; the relation is unidirectional and is not valid in the other direction, meaning that economic growth does not cause renewable energy consumption. In Spain, energy consumption with source natural gas causes economic growth on short-run, and the relation is valid just in this direction. The findings of this study help understanding the energy-growth nexus which stands behind all energy policies.
This study assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialized countries. Multivariate VAR analysis is carried out using both linear and non-linear models. The latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature, namely, the asymmetric, scaled and net specifications. Evidence of a non-linear impact of oil prices on real GDP is found. In particular, oil price increases are found to have an impact on GDP growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines, with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases. Among oil importing countries, oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but Japan. Moreover, the effect of oil shocks on GDP growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in the sample, with the UK being negatively affected by an oil price increase and Norway benefiting from it.
As the world struggles to emerge from a global recession and financial crisis, countries are looking for solutions to improve domestic economic performance and put people back to work. Global energy demand and prices have been resilient during the recession, leading policy-makers in countries with the potential to produce energy to look to that sector as a potential engine for economic growth. The objective of this study is to undertake an empirical study on linkages among energy consumption, economic growth, FDI, relative price and financial development (i.e., broad money supply - M-2) in low income, middle income, high income non-OECD, high income OECD, South Africa, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the aggregate data of the World over a period of 1975-2011. Data is analyzed by the Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS) test of unit root to find out the order of integration. The long-run relationship is investigated through the Pedroni [37] test of panel cointegration. At last, the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method is used for estimation of the impact of growth factors on energy consumption in these regions. The results reveal that each variable seem to have a unit root at level, so we could investigate cointegration of the series at level. On the basis of Pedroni test, we can bring to a close that series are cointegrated. The results of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) suggests that GDP per capita has a positive impact on energy consumption in low income, middle income, South Africa, MENA and aggregate data of the World. However, in high income OECD and non-OECD regions, there is no significant relationship been found in both regions. FDI plays a pivotal role in increasing energy demand in middle income, high income OECD and non-OECD region which implies that whatever other benefits may accrue from FDI, it should not be expected to generate sufficient energy in South Africa, MENA and the World directly. FDI enhancement policies should be supplemented to stimulate growth in those regions. Broad money supply exerts positive impact on energy demand in low income, middle income, high income non-OECD and MENA regions. Finally, relative prices has either a positive impact i.e., middle income region and/or a negative impact on energy consumption i.e., low income, high income OECD and MENA region. The results conclude that lower energy prices reduce input costs for nearly all goods and services in the regions, thus making them more affordable.
Currently, around 90% of Malaysia's electricity generation depends on fossil fuels. This reliance, in a long run, is not a secure option. However, renewable energy sources can contribute to a sustainable electricity generation system; but diversifying fuel supply chain is a complex process. Therefore, the aim of this paper is two folds. Firstly, various renewable resources potential are reviewed, and secondly an assessment model is developed for prioritizing renewable options. Four major resources, hydropower, solar, wind, biomass (including biogas and municipal solid waste) are considered. Their electricity generation potential, along with any likely shortcoming is also discussed. Moreover, using a multi-perspective approach based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an assessment model is developed. AHP model employs four main criteria, technical, economical, social and environmental aspects, and twelve sub-criteria. From the review it was found that renewable resources seem to have a sufficient potential to develop a sustainable electricity system. Furthermore, AHP model prioritize those resources, revealing that solar is the most favorable resource followed by biomass. Hydropower and wind however, are ranked third and fourth, respectively. The model also shows that each resource is inclined towards a particular criterion; solar towards economical, biomass towards social, hydropower towards technical, and wind towards environmental aspect. Besides reporting AHP model for the first time in Malaysian context, the assessment performed in this study, can serve decision makers to formulate long-term energy policy aiming for sustainability.
The relationship between energy led growth, foreign direct investment (FDI) led growth and financial development led growth hypothesis has been widely debated inside the academic circles. There is a general consensus that these factors are a major cause of growth and vice versa. The objective of this study is to analyze the causal relationship among energy consumption, economic growth, relative price, financial development (FD) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Asia using a bivariate and multivariate framework. This study covers a sample from 1975 to 2011. The results of cointegration suggests that variables are cointegrated at their first order i.e, I(1) variables and there has been long-run relationship exist between them. The study finds that both energy consumption and economic growth Granger causes each other in the short and long run. The study supported five growth hypotheses in the context of South Asia and these hypotheses have important policy implications in the South Asian region i.e., a) energy led growth hypothesis, b) energy led financial development, c) FDI led growth hypothesis, d) finance led growth hypothesis and e) FDI led relative prices are supported by the findings from this study. The finding of bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth implies that South Asia is an energy dependent country. Energy is a prominent resource for financial sector development in South Asia, further developed financial sector need more energy resources, and this result indicates that energy consumption Granger cause FD and FD Granger cause energy consumption in South Asian region. Moreover, there is a bidirectional link between FDI & economic growth; and between FDI & relative prices of energy in South Asia which explains that FDI increases energy prices in the host countries, whereas brighter growth prospects in the host countries attract an increased flow of FDI in this region. Finally, existing energy infrastructure fails to comply with speedy FDI and thus put strain on the energy channels which leads to higher energy prices. This quest supports the FDI led relative price hypothesis in South Asian region.
This study investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption (i.e., nuclear energy consumption, electricity power consumption and fossil fuels energy consumption) and economic growth; energy consumption and industrialization (i.e., industrial GDP, beverages and cigarettes); energy consumption and environmental degradation (i.e., carbon dioxide emissions, population density and water resources); and finally, energy consumption and resource depletion (i.e., mineral depletion, energy depletion, natural depletion and net forest depletion) in Pakistan over a period of 1975–2011. The Granger causality (GC) test in the frequency domain using the Pierce framework has been employed. This GC test in the frequency domain relies on a modified version of the coefficient of coherence, which they estimate in a nonparametric fashion and for which they derive the distributional properties. The results infer that there exists uni-directional causality running from nuclear energy to industrial GDP, nuclear energy to water resources; and nuclear energy to carbon dioxide emissions but not vice versa. Similarly, electric power consumption Granger cause agriculture GDP but not other way around, further, there is a bi-directional causality running between electric power consumption to population density in Pakistan. Fossil fuel Granger cause industrial GDP and there is a bidirectional causality running between fossil fuel and population density. Moreover, the findings show that the nature of causality among nuclear energy consumption & agriculture; nuclear energy consumption & population density; electric power consumption & cigarettes production; fossil fuel & cigarettes; and fossil fuels and agriculture value added are in favour of the neutrality hypothesis in Pakistan. The conclusion has been strengthen and have a very strong implications in the context of Pakistan, where we have economic and financial constraints, and thus agreeing the bottom line, “living with the just enough”.
This paper's aim is to examine the relationship between energy consumption by fuel end economic growth in a comparative analysis for Spain, Romania and European Union. Applying a methodology in three steps on data for the 1990–2010 period, long-run and short-run relationships are revealed. On long-run, the energy consumption with total petroleum products source yields evidence of linkage with economic growth (proxied by Gross Domestic Product per capita in constant prices) for both two states and European Union. Furthermore, on short run only two relationships were emphasized both sustaining the growth hypothesis. So, in Romania, renewable energy consumption influences on short run the economic performance of activities; the relation is unidirectional and is not valid in the other direction, meaning that economic growth does not cause renewable energy consumption. In Spain, energy consumption with source natural gas causes economic growth on short-run, and the relation is valid just in this direction. The findings of this study help understanding the energy-growth nexus which stands behind all energy policies.
Prompted by the contemporaneous spike in coal, oil, and natural gas prices, this paper evaluates the degree of market integration both within and between crude oil, coal, and natural gas markets. Our approach yields parameters that can be readily tested against a priori conjectures. Using daily price data for five very different crude oils, we conclude that the world oil market is a single, highly integrated economic market. On the other hand, coal prices at five trading locations across the United States are cointegrated, but the degree of market integration is much weaker, particularly between Western and Eastern coals. Finally, we show that crude oil, coal, and natural gas markets are only very weakly integrated. Our results indicate that there is not a primary energy market. Despite current price peaks, it is not useful to think of a primary energy market, except in a very long run context.
Today, energy crisis turn out to be a serious threat towards sustainability for developing countries since their energy demand is growing more rapidly than developed countries. On the other hand, fossil fuels cannot sustain anymore in the near future because of environmental impacts and depletion of the reserves. Malaysia is experiencing drastic growth in population and economy and requires exploring alternative energy sources to support its population and commercial energy demand. Biomass as the fourth largest energy resource in the world is abundant in the country. Malaysia is blessed with tropical and humid climate all year round which is a magnificent opportunity for fully exploiting agriculture and tropical forests potential. Since late 1990, the concept of waste-to-wealth had been promoted and became popular widely. This concept is based on unwanted wastes which are converted into valuable energy while reducing waste generated and increase the economy-efficiency mainly used for cooking, space heating and power generation. Currently, concerted efforts and various biomass energy programs are supporting by the government for development, demonstration and commercialization. This paper intent to present the current state and prospects of biomass utilization and strategies promoted for future developments in Malaysia.
After opening up of the Interconnector, the liberalized UK natural gas market and the regulated Continental gas markets became physically integrated and the Continental gas price became dominant. However, in an interim period Ð after deregulation of the UK gas market (1995) and the opening up of the Interconnector (1998) Ð the UK gas market had neither government price regulation nor a physical Continental gas linkage. We use this period Ð which for natural gas markets displays an unusual combination of deregulation and autarky Ð as a natural experiment to explore if decoupling of natural gas prices from prices of other energy commodities, such as oil and electricity, took place. Monthly price data in the period 1995-1998 indicates a highly integrated market where wholesale demand seems to be for energy rather than a specific energy source.
This paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and GDP for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002. Based on the income levels defined by the World Bank, the data are divided into four categories: low income group, lower middle income group, upper middle income group, and high income group. We employ the GMM-SYS approach for the estimation of the panel VAR model in each of the four groups. Afterwards, the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained. We discover: (a) in the low income group, there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; (b) in the middle income groups (lower and upper middle income groups), economic growth leads energy consumption positively; (c) in the high income group countries, economic growth leads energy consumption negatively. After further in-depth analysis of energy related data, the results indicate that, in the high income group, there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of CO2. However, in the upper middle income group countries, after the energy crisis, the energy efficiency declines and the release of CO2 rises. Since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups, a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries.
The paper investigates the long run relationship between energy use per capita and per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) for 19 African countries for the period 1971–2001 using a newly developed cointegration test proposed by [Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y, & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds testing approach to the analysis of level relationships. Jounal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–325], which is capable of testing for the existence of a long run relationship regardless of whether the underlying time series are individually I(0), I(1) or mutually cointegrated. The paper also uses the [Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process. Jounal of Econometrics, 66, 225–250] version of the Granger causality test which is valid regardless of whether a series is I(0), I(1) or I(2), non-cointegrated or cointegrated of any arbitrary order. The empirical evidence shows that there was a long run relationship between the two series for only eight countries and causality for only 10 countries.
There have been a variety of studies investigating the relative importance of structural change and real intensity change to the change in China's energy consumption in the 1980s. However, no detailed analysis to date has been done to examine whether or not the increased energy efficiency trend in the 1980s still prevailed in the 1990s. This article has filled this gap by investigating the change in energy consumption in China's industrial sector in the 1990s, based on the data sets of value added and end-use energy consumption for the 29 industrial subsectors and using the newly proposed decomposition method of giving no residual. Our results clearly show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline in industrial energy use in the 1990s was the decline in real energy intensity, indicating that the trend of real energy intensity declines in the 1980s at the 2-digit level was still maintained in the 1990s. This conclusion still holds even if we lower the growth rate dramatically in line with the belief that the growth rate of China's GDP may be overestimated.
We present a model of growth driven by energy use and endogenous factor-augmenting technological change. Both the rate and direction of technological progress are endogenous. The model captures four main stylised facts: total energy use has increased; energy use per hour worked increased slightly; energy efficiency has improved; and the value share of energy in GDP has steadily fallen. We study how energy conservation policies affect growth over time and in the long run. Policies that reduce the level of energy use are distinguished from those that reduce the growth rate of energy inputs. Although these policies may stimulate innovation, they unambiguously depress output levels. The former policy has no impact on long-run growth; the latter reduces long-run growth both in the short run and in the long run.
Relationships Between Upstream Prices of Crude Oil and Natural Gas – Evidence from Canada
- A Plourde
- G.C. Watkins
Why did the energy intensity fall in China's industrial sector in the 1990s? The relative importance of structural change and intensity change IJESM 3,2 164 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail: reprints@emeraldinsight.com Or visit our web site for further details
- Z X Zhang
Zhang, Z.X. (1990), " Why did the energy intensity fall in China's industrial sector in the 1990s? The relative importance of structural change and intensity change ", Energy Economics, Vol. 25, pp. 625-38. IJESM 3,2 164 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail: reprints@emeraldinsight.com Or visit our web site for further details: www.emeraldinsight.com/reprints
Penn World Table Version 6.2, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP)
- A Heston
- R Summers
- B Aten
Heston, A., Summers, R. and Aten, B. (2006), Penn World Table Version 6.2, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), Philadelphia, PA. Huang, B.-N., Hwang, M.J. and Yang, C.W. (2008), " Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: a dynamic panel data approach ", Ecological Economics, Vol. 67, pp. 41-54.
Relationships Between Upstream Prices of Crude Oil and Natural Gas - Evidence from Canada, Discussion Paper
- A Plourde
- G C Watkins