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A generalised “layered methodology” framework

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  • The Voroscope

Abstract

Purpose To outline and present a generalised scheme for using “layered methods” in foresight work. Design/methodology/approach A number of different approaches to “layering” in futures studies and foresight work are examined and synthesised into a generalised scheme. The place of layered methods in foresight work is also examined, and the role of perceptual filters in interpretation is discussed. Findings A schema of four major “strata”, each potentially containing multiple sub‐layers, is developed. The strata range from, for example, short‐term trends in the shallowest level, through to long‐term macrohistorical forces at the deepest level. Practical implications The generalised scheme enables the practitioner to progressively move to greater levels of understanding as new layers of meaning are uncovered or constructed, as appropriate to the specific nature of the particular foresight engagement. The scheme also represents a template from which purpose‐built interpretive frameworks can be constructed, as needed, in foresight processes and work. Originality/value This paper provides a new, generalised and integrated approach to the use of interpretive frameworks in foresight work.
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... "Preferable" is the one that we prefer to happen and "Projected" is the singular default future, which is the most probable of the probable ones. Figure 15: Futures Cone (Voros, 2005) It is always a challenge to reach the preferred future, which is the main goal of strategic vision, because of the uncertainties happening in the time. Visions should be disciplined to attain the goals (Haig, Alexander M., 1984), therefore, some systematic approaches and specific methods should be adopted for shaping the future. ...
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... Generic foresight frameworks have been published as guides for practitioners to be incorporated and to facilitate their approaches to designing foresight exercises and selecting foresight methods. Voros (2005) proposed the concept of 'Layers of Depth', attempting to integrate several different 'depth' typologies and methods into a single approach -the Generalised Layered Methodology (GLM). The practitioner could then move to deeper levels of understanding progressively and also use it as a template to adapt frameworks, as needed, in the foresight process. ...
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... .]; Beck and Cowan 1996;Haigh 2013), Generalised Layer Methodology of Voros (Voros 2005), and the depth layers of Slaughter (Slaughter 1999[a])" (Haigh 2016, 166-67). ...
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