The Internet in twenty years: cyberspace, the next frontier?

Abstract

Few dispute the very strong likelihood that within twenty years the global information infrastructure, often referred to as the internet or “the net” will become as generalized, indispensable and invisible as today”s phone or electrical networks. Many commentators also expect this digital web to become the host for cyberspace, the next frontier. This article provides an overview of where a wide range of experts from business, government and the academic world believe this rapidly expanding global information infrastructure is heading over the next two decades.

Full text

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 1 Riel Miller,1997
THEINTERNETINTWENTYYEARS:CYBERSPACE,THENEXT
FRONTIER?
By RielMiller
1
Fewdisputetheverystronglikelihoodthatwithintwentyyearstheglobalinformation
infrastructureoftenreferredtoastheInternetortheNetwillbecomeasgeneralised,
indispensableandinvisibleastoday’sphoneorelectricalnetworks.
2 Manycommentators
alsoexpectthisdigitalwebtobecomethehostforcyberspace,thenextfrontier.
Remarkably,thisnewfrontierisrisingup,notoutofthesealikeacontinentfromthe
earth’scrust,butfromourcollectiveimaginationandtechnologicalcapability.Discovery,
however,willnotprovideablueprintforfuturesettlement.Cyberspacecouldturnintoa
placewherepeoplesetupshop,buildcommunities,shareideasandshapethefutureon
thebasisofdemocraticchoices.Or,itcouldcontinuetohurtlealongasawildwesttype
outpostwhereanonymity,lackofprivacyandunsecuredcommunicationskeepoutlaws
andhighrisktakershappy.Inwhichcasetheeverydaysettlersarelikelytostayaway.
Takingoneortheotheroftheseverydifferenttrajectorieswilllargelybeaquestionof
whatkindofinfrastructuredevelops.Cyberspacewillbeshapedbythephysical,
economic,legal,institutional,social,politicalandculturalstructuresthatemergetocreate
frameworksforcommerceandcommunitybuilding.Butwhenitcomestoinfrastructure
onthisscaleitwillnot,norhasiteverbeen,justaquestionofbuildingsomethinglikethe
railroadsandthenwaitingforprosperity.Argentina,RussiaandCanadaallbuiltrailways,
buttheresultswerehardlythesame.Wealthcreationandwellbeingbothinsideandout
ofvirtualrealitywilldependonwhatkindsofinfrastructuredevelop.Cyberspaceisthere
tobedeveloped,theopenquestionishow.
Threemajorsetsofinfrastructurerelatedquestionsinascendingorderofuncertainty 
meritexamination:
1)Howwillthetechnologicalandinstitutionalobstacleslikenetworkovercrowding,lost
messagesandeasyfraudbeovercome?
2)Howwillbusinesses,individualsandgovernmentsrespondtoaworldwhereflowsof
informationandcommerceareseamless,ofhighqualityandinexpensive?
1 OriginallypublishedasanOECDInternationalFuturesProgrammeHighlightin1997.
2 Technicallyspeaking,theInternetisonlyoneofmanytypesof networkthatconnectsvariouscomputers,serving
theroleofconduitforappropriatelyconfigureddata.AsfortheNet,itisabroaderandlesstechnicalterm,that
encompassesallofthemanytendrilsandsegments fromdatatransmissioncablesandswitchestotelephones,home
appliances,automobilesandofcoursecomputers thatwillbeconnectedtogetherinordertoprovideapervasiveand
deeplypenetratingglobalinformationinfrastructure.Cyberspacewilleventuallycometolifeonthisinfrastructureas
arangeofinformationandservicesspanning,atleastforafewanalysts,almostallaspectsofhumanexperience.

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 2 Riel Miller,1997
3)Howwillpoliticalchoicesinfluencethedevelopmentofthistechnologicaltidalwave?
Predictions,assomanyinventorsknow,areriskybusiness.FromThomasEdisontoAllan
Turingtheexpectationsofwhatnewtechnologywouldbeusedfororwhatitmight
achievehaveoftenbeenwayoffthemark.Edisonanticipatedthatthephonographwould
beusedforrecordingdictation,whileTuringexpectedcomputerstobecapableof
intelligent,humanlikeconversationbytheendofthiscentury.Boththeusesand
advancesoftechnologycanendupinunexpectedplaces.
Yet,asalways,lookingtothefutureisacrucialpartofanyefforttoavoidcatastrophe
and,perhapsmoreimportantly,steeracourseotherthanwherethewindblows.
Fortunately,overthepastfewyearstherehasbeenadelugeofanalysisanddebate
regardingtheInternetandtheimplicationsofinformationtechnology.
3 Siftingthrough
thisvoluminousliteraturerevealsanumberofpowerfultrendsandkeychoicesthatare
likelytoshapetheanswerstothethreequestionsposedaboveandformthebasisforthe
speculationsinthischapter.
BUILDINGTHENET:COMPLETINGTHEOPERATIONALAND
FUNCTIONALINFRASTRUCTURE
GrowthratesfortheNet,beitdigitaltrafficoverthetelecommunicationbackbonesorthe
numberofconnectedusersortherangeanddepthofcontent,areanticipatedtocontinue
tobeexplosivewellintothenextcentury(6855)
4
.Forexample,asurveydonebyeland
(www.eland.com)inearly1997ofrecentestimatesofthenumberofInternetusers
worldwideshowsadoublingevery12months,startingatanestimated8.5millionin1995
andreachingover142millionbytheyear2000.UnquestionablytheNetandinformation
technologyingeneralarereachingcriticalmass,thepointatwhichdiffusionmovesfrom
specializednichesectorsliketheacademicanddefensecommunitiestosocietyasawhole.
Whatislesscertainthanthisrapidgrowthinusersandusesisexactlyhowwithwhich
productsandinstitutionstheNet’sbasicinfrastructurewillbescaleduptoprovide:
·thephysicalcapacity(bandwidth,switching,etc.)tohandlethehugeamountsofdigital
traffic;.
·thecompatible,interoperableandsophisticatedsoftware(applications,operating
systemsandintelligentagents)thatarenecessaryiftheNetistolinkallusersina
seamless,easytouseandusefulweb;
3 Seebibliographyforalimitedselection.ForamorecompletelistingseetheOECDInternational
FuturesProgrammeInformationBase(http://www.oecd.org/sge/au).
4 ReferencenumbersrefertotheentryintheCDROMdatabaseentitled:“FutureTrends”developedbytheOECD
InternationalFuturesProgramme(seepage7).

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 3 Riel Miller,1997
·theprivacy,copyright,meansofpaymentandpolicingsafeguardsessentialforreassuring
bothinformationsuppliersandconsumers;and
·theeaseofusethatcanintegratetheNetintoeverydaylifesothatitbecomessecond
naturelikeswitchingonalight,diallingaphonenumberordrivingacar(5929).
Themanyprospectivesolutionstotheseinfrastructuralchallengescanbedividedinto
threecategories.
Operationalinfrastructure: Whenitcomestothebasiccomponentslikefiberoptic
cablesandmicroprocessorsthetechnologicaldirectionisclearfaster,smaller,lessenergy
intensiveandcheaperforagivenlevelofperformance.Inanutshellbigefficiencygains.
But,thereisnotellingwhatwillbetheexactmixofwinningproducts.Thereisstrong
evidencethatintherealmofdatatransmissionavarietyofphysicalpathwayswillcoexist.
Twistedpair,fiberandcoaxialcableswillallcompetewithawiderangeofwireless,
satelliteandinfraredtransmissionmethods.Lookingatthereceivingandtransmitting
hardwarethereisagoodchancethatdiversityandmuchgreaterefficiencywillreignhere
aswell.Oureverydayactivitieswilltakeplacesurroundedbyawiderangeofultrafast,
lowpowerandinterconnectedcomputingdevicessuchaswearabledigitalassistants
integratedintoourclothing(andperhapsevenbeneathourskin),embeddedsystemsthat
linkthespecialpurposemicroprocessorsinourcar,refrigeratorandbriefcase,and
convergencemachinesthatcombineandnetworkbusinessandhouseholdvideo,audioand
computing.
Similaradvancescanbeexpectedintherealmofthebasicnetworkprotocolsand
operatingsoftwarestandards.Overthenextdecadetherewillbeastampedeof
companiesandselfregulatingconsortia—fromthebenevolentInternetEngineeringTask
Force’ssupervisionofprotocolstoSunMicrosystem’sprofitmotivatedpromotionofJava
—attemptingtostakeclaimsatthefrontieroftheNet’soperationalinfrastructure.
Althoughthisnextphasewillnotbeaseasyascapitalisingontheinitial,publiclyfunded
breakthroughslikeTCP/IP(U.S.DefenseDepartmentAdvancedResearchProjects
Agency)andtheWorldWideWeb’shypertextbrowser(EuropeanLaboratoryforParticle
Physics),therearehugeincentivestoreachagreements(7002).Thesestandardsare
indispensableforaseamlessandhighspeedwebwhereeveryonecanconnecteasilyand
information,fromelectronicmailandvideotospecialisedapplicationsanddigital
signatures,flowsfreely (6863,6889).WithoutsuchinteroperabilitytheNetwill
disintegrateintoapatchworkofsealedoffcellsincapableofcreatingthenetwork
efficienciesthatarecentraltocontinuedgrowthandprofitability(6855).
Functionalinfrastructure: Asecondsetofchallengesinvolvestheintroductionofthe
institutionalandpolicyderivedstandards,regulationsandmarketcodesofconductthat
willenablefunctionaluseofanoperationalnetwork’spotential.Threeissues,allrelated
tothecostsofmakingadeal(ortransactioncosts),willbecentraltodeterminingwhether
ornottheNetactuallyoffersabreakthroughinthewayweconducttheageoldactivities
ofbuyingandsellinginformation,goodsandservices.

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 4 Riel Miller,1997
First,thedigitalworldiscallousandoftenoutlawinitstreatmentofpropertyrights,
reproducingonawhimandoftenforprofitcopiesofothers’work.Methodsforensuring
propertyprotectionandderivingrevenuefromtheownershipofcopyrightmaterialwill
needtobefundamentalpartsoftheNet’sfunctionalinfrastructure(6859,6858).
Second,althoughitisrarelymadeexplicit,thecostofsharinginformationorbuyingand
sellingdependsconsiderablyonthedegreeoftrustamongstthetraders.Withouttrustthe
riskandenforcementcostsoftransactionsskyrocket.OntheNet,withitsglobalreach
andindifferencetobordersbetheynational,culturalormoral,establishingtrustwill
requireknittingtogetherinternationallegalframeworksthatofferusers:identity
verification,securepayment,contractandliabilityenforcement,easeofdelivery,cleartax
rules,informationtransparencyandprivacy(2093).
Lastly,universallyrecognisablesignposts,commonrulesoftheroad,andfamiliar
placementofpedals,dialsandothercontrolsprovidedriverswithafairlywidespread
commondenominatornottomentionaonceonlylifetimelearningcost.Withoutglobal
drivingrules,guidepostsandinterfacedesignthecostsofsearching,screeningand
navigatingtheNetwilleitherremainorbecome(ascontentexpands)toohighformany
currentandpotentialusers(6855).
AllthreeoftheseimpedimentstoafunctionalNetwillbeovercomewithinadecade,albeit
withvaryingdegreesofdifficultyandimportantvariationsinthepaceandscopeofthe
solutionsacrosscountries.
Mostcomplexwillbedependablemechanismsforensuringpropertyprotectionand
paymenttocopyrightholders.Heretheobstaclesarenotprimarilytechnologicalsince
solutionsarerapidlycomingavailablethatprovidetamperfreeidentificationoforiginal
documentsandofanysubsequentcopying.Themajorproblemswillbeinthelegal
domain,particularlywithrespecttotheupdatingofcopyrightlawandgainingthe
necessaryinternationalagreements.Oneofthemainchallengesinvolvesfindingthe
economicallyefficientbalancebetweentheinterestsofthecreator/vendorseekingrevenue
andthoseofusersandsocietyatlarge.Ontheonehand,thefreeandopenflowof
informationandintellectualpropertyisexpectedtobecomeevenmoreimportantaswe
moveawayfromanindustrialtoaknowledgeeconomy.Ontheotherhand,stringent
copyrightlawandenforcementcoulderectsomanyproprietaryroadblocksincyberspace
thattheNetcouldenduphinderingratherthanhelpingwiththesharingofideasand
innovation.Lawmakerswillneedtodevotetimeandconsiderableefforttonegotiating
andimplementingboththelocalandglobalschemesthat:reliablyanduniversallysignal
copyrighteddigitalproducts,amendcopyrightlawsinwaysthatbalancecompeting
interestsincludingthoseoffairuseforpublicbenefit,andfullyintegratesimpleperuse
paymentsystemsintothetechnologyoftheNet(6858).
Resolutioniscloserforthesecondandthirdchallengesofestablishingtrustandeasyto
useinterfacesaspowerfulcommercialinterestsandadvancesininformationtechnology
swiftlydrivetheNet’sfunctionalcommercialinfrastructureforward.Withmillionsof
dollarsandmarketshareatstake,privatesectorinitiativeswillcontinuetopressurethe

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 5 Riel Miller,1997
sluggishresponsesandjurisdictionallimitationsofgovernments.Banks,creditcard
issuersandawidearrayofgoodsandservicevendorsfrommerchandise(cars,clothes,
books,pharmaceuticals,food)anddigitisedentertainment(music,video,multimedia,
games)toprofessional(lawyers,doctors,financialadvisors)andinformationservices
(magazines,newspapers,education,healthcare)areallavidlyintentonestablishingas
soonaspossiblethetrust,security,easeofuseanddependabilityuponwhicheveryday
markettransactionsdepend(6195,6862).Withtheprospectofinventing,conqueringor
defendingmarketshares(andfirstmoverprofits)intherapidlyexpanding,soontobe
globalcybereconomyfirmsarerushingtointroducesecurepaymentandcustomerredress
mechanisms,unassailableencryption,uniquedigitalsignatures,easytolearninteractive
interfaces,privacysafeguards,andratingschemesthatallowuserstandardsratherthan
blanketcensorshiptoregulateaccesstotheNet’scontents(7001).
Unfortunately,establishingthesemarketrulesofthegamemaytakelongerthantoday’s
businessesandconsumersmightwish.Foraninternetstartuporanerstwhileinternet
shopperafiveyeartimehorizonistheequivalentofeternity.Butitislikelythatgettingto
thepointwhereinternettransactionsareastrustworthyandsubstantivelyriskfreeascash
paymentforanitematthecornerstorewilltakeafewmoreyearsandrequirecloseco
operationbetweenthepublicandprivatesectors.Indeed,publicinfrastructurehasan
indispensableroletoplay.
RoleofthePublicSector: Tracingthefuturedividinglinebetweenpublicandprivate
infrastructureprovisionisnotasimpletaskgiventhedifferencesamongstcountriesand
theunfamiliarrequirementsofanewfrontier.Fivefactorswill,inmostcases,decide
whichsideofthelineaparticularpartoftheinfrastructurefallson.
Thefirstfactorpertainstohowgovernmentsestablishandmaintaincompetitiveconditions
inkeymarketssuchastelecommunications,computerhardwareandthewiderangeof
softwarefromunderlyingoperatingsystemsandbrowserstoprivacyandtransaction
applications.Ifgovernmentsareabletoeffectivelyuseantitrustpoliciestoguardagainst
collusionorunfairmarketdominance,thentherewillbelessreason(andlesspolitical
pressure)fordirectpublicintervention.Strongcompetitionismorethanfeasiblegiventhe
numberanddiversityofpotentialprivatesectorplayers,including:phonecompanies,cable
operators,Internetaccessproviders,chipmanufacturers,computervendors,electronic
applianceproducers,softwaredevelopersandthevastrangeofcontentproviders(2093,
6033).Assumingthatgovernmentsaresuccessfulinencouragingcompetitionand
vigilantlypreventexcessmarketpowerinallofthesemanymarkets,thenthereislittle
doubtthatapredominantshareoftheNet’soperationalandfunctionalinfrastructurewill
beprovidedbytheprivatesector.Everythingfromgloballyaccessibleelectronicmailand
cryptographicsecuritytothecomputingappliancesandnetworkconnectionswillbe
offeredbyawiderangeofcompanieshailingfromallpartsoftheworld.
Yet,evenwithwellfunctioningmarkets,thereareotherfactorsthatargueforapublic
sectorroleinthedevelopmentofcyberspace’sinfrastructure.

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 6 Riel Miller,1997
Thesecondfactorinfluencingpublicparticipationgoesbeyondwaysofensuring
competitiontothedifferentwaysofachievinguniversal,equitableandinexpensiveaccess,
trustandinteroperabilityincyberspace.Politics,asexploredattheendofthischapter,
willmakeabigdifferencehere.Onecountry’sdefinitionofaccesscanbecloseto
anotherísconceptionofexclusion.Butnoteveryoneneedstosharethesameapproach
andthereisprobablynoharmincompetingmodels.Somecountrieswillwanttoensure
securityandaccesstocyberspaceusingpubliclyownedandmanagedservices.Others
maytrustprivateproviderstoensureaffordableconnectionsprotectedbyunbreakable
cryptography.Considerablescopealsoexistsformixedpublicprivateconsortiatosetout
therules,standardsandincertaincasesdirectservicessuchastheoversight,registration
andmanagementofinternetdomainnames.Internationalpublicprivatecooperationwill
alsobeessentialfortheintroductionofaglobalcommercialcode,asproposedbythe
Clintonadministrationinmid1997initsFrameworkforGlobalElectronicCommerce
(http:www.iitf.nist.gov/eleccomm/ecomm.html).Overthenextdecadeagreementsofthis
typeandtheorganizationsthatsupportthemwillbefundamentalforestablishingthetrust
neededamongstproducersandconsumersifelectroniccommerceistoreallyboom.
A thirdelementlikelytoinfluencetheextentofpublicsectorinvolvementincyberspace
concernscivilrightsandresponsibilities.Againnoteverycountrysharesthesamehistory
andtraditionswithsomeleaningmoreonlegalorconstitutionalframeworkstoshapethe
wayrightsandresponsibilitiesareexercisedwhileothersdependmoreondirect,publicly
providedservices.Althoughtherighttovoteandtherighttohaveaverifiableidentityin
cyberspacearenotyetonpar,theremaycomeatimewhenexpressingonespoliticalviews
orlearningabouttheviewsofotherswilldemandapresenceinvirtualreality.Whenit
comestosuchissuesascybercitizenshipelectoratesarelikelytoinsistonastrongrolefor
government.Afterall,electorallistsandcitizenshipareuniversallythepurviewofpublic
authoritiesandarelikelytostaythatway.
Thefourthareawherepublicinfrastructurewillbeasignificantpresenceincyberspaceare
activitiesliketaxation,supervisionofcurrenciesandfinancialmarkets,policingand
nationaldefense.Someoftheseissues,likestreamliningcustomsclearanceorthe
potentialerosionofthetaxbaseasindividualsandfirmsseekcyberspacehavensfrom
salesandincometaxesaswellastheimplicationsofNetbasedcreditandelectronic
moneyfornationalandglobalfinancialsystems,willbethrustupongovernments(7002).
Onotherissues,liketherelationshipbetweencryptographyandcriminalactivityordata
hackingandnationalsecurity,mostgovernmentsarealreadydeeplyinvolved.Again,it
willtaketimetoworkouttheexactconfigurationofnational,internationalandevenlocal
lawsandinstitutionsthatwilleffectivelyundertaketaxcollection,supervisefinancial
marketsandguardagainstcrimeandwarlikeaggression.Intheseareastherewill
probablybeadifficultracewherelimitedjurisdictionalauthorityandinsufficientinterestor
skillinnegotiatinginternationalagreementsslowspublicsectoreffortstocatchupwith
therapidadvancesofaseamlessglobalNet(6862).
Thefinalfactorlikelytoaffectthedividinglinebetweenpublicandprivateinfrastructure
incyberspacepertainstoservicesthatremain,inmanycountries,outsidethecommercial
spheresuchashealthcare,educationandsocialsecurity(6093,6115).Herethereisa

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 7 Riel Miller,1997
dualchallenge,firsttomakesurethattheNetprovidestherequiredlevelsofprivacy,
respectforhumanrightsanduniversalitythatarerequiredintheseareasandthento
explorenewmodelsof governance(collectivedecisionmaking)andsocialresponsibility
thataremadefeasiblebyafullyoperationalandfunctionalNet(6664,6860).Thispartof
thepublicinfrastructurewillatfirstconsistmostlyofextensionsofexistingservicesinto
cyberspace.Governmentswillpursuethisexpansionpartlyforefficiencyreasonsand
partlybecausetherewillbeademand,particularlyforeducationalservicesandhealth
information.Theemergenceofmoreambitiousandinnovativeinfrastructuressuchasnew
waysoforganisingriskmanagementfundslikepublicpensions,unemploymentinsurance
andwelfarewillhingemostlyontheunpredictableoccurrenceofwidespreadpolitical
courageandforesight.
USINGTHENET:CONSUMERSANDPRODUCERSCONQUER
CYBERSPACE
Takingacuefromthehistoryofhowpreviousuniversaltechnologiesdiffused,itisnotfar
fetchedtoexpectthattheNetwillgraduallyreorganisehow,what,whereandwhenwe
produceandconsume.Ittooktheelectricmotorfortyyearsfromitsinitialintroductionto
fullytransformboththefactoriesthatwereoncepoweredbycentralsteamengineswith
leatherbeltsandtheconsumerproductsthatcouldnotevenbeimaginedbeforehand.Be
itelectricity,thetelephoneortheautomobileittakestimeandsignificantchangesinmany
ingrainedmethods,tacitandexplicitwaysofdoingbusinessandconductingdailylife
beforesuchinventionsfindfullfruition(1671).Cyberspacewillbenodifferent.
Time,effortanddifficultchoiceswillberequiredtoadaptandinventtheappropriate
infrastructure.Indeed,thepervasivenessoftheNet’simpactoverthenexttwodecades
willlargelydependonourcapacitytodeveloptheinfrastructurethatcantakeadvantage
ofsignificantlylowercostsofsharinginformation particularlymarketsignals(6866).In
mostmarkets,includingthoseforgoods,services,finance,andlabour,theNetcould
reducecostsinfourways:
·byprovidinglessexpensiveaccesstoagreaternumberofpeopleandfirms;
·throughgreaterspeedofinformationacquisitionallowinglessplanned,more
spontaneoussearchesforproducts,suppliers,pricesandevaluations;
·byreducingtimeconstraints,sincesearchescanbedoneatanytime;and
·byliberatingtransactionsandinformationfromgeographic,locationallimits,sincethe
dataflowsfromanywheretheNetcanreach.
ShouldtheNetbecomethisinexpensiveandaccessibleindexofmuchofhuman
knowledge,thentheratioofcost(time,money,etc.)toagivenqualityofinformationwill
fall,potentiallyverysignificantly(7002).Likethediscoveryofoil,anewsupply(orless
expensiveaccessorimprovementsinquality)ofacriticalresourcecanmakeabig
differenceinthewayproductsaredeveloped,producedandused.Similarly,making

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 8 Riel Miller,1997
effectiveuseforbusinessandpleasureofamoreefficientinformationsystemwilldemand
changesacrossaseriesofrelationshipsthatareofteninvisibleandtakenforgranted.The
infrastructureofeverydayemploymentandlifewherewegotowork,howweshop,the
waytofindajobandeventhewayweproducewillneedtobesignificantlyreconfigured,
ifnotreinvented
Producerandconsumerwebs: ANetinducedleapintheefficiencyofacquiring
informationandconductingtransactions(monetaryandnonmonetary)will,inall
likelihood,inducemajorchangesinfourfundamentalsetsofmarketrelationships:
·first,amongstproducersasdecentralisedsupplynetworksblossom;
·second,betweenproducersandconsumersasnewdirectconnectionsareforged;
·third,amongstconsumersasmoreefficientconnectionsenablethesharingofproduct
assessmentsandthepoolingofpurchasingpower;and
·lastly,betweenconsumersandproducersasthisdistinctionbeginstoblurasthe
customer’sknowledgebecomesacentralelementofthetotalvalueaddedcontainedinthe
finalproduct.
Manymarketsarelikelytobetransformedbydirect,accurateandfastNetbasedaccessto
suppliersoflabour,services,financingandcommodities.Bothproducersandconsumers
willhaveanopportunitytodiversifyanddeepentheirmarketrelationshipswithalower
riskofincurringexcessivesearchcostsorerrors(1671,6863).Greatereaseinsettingup
outsourcing,temporarycontractworkandvirtualcompaniesandproductscouldleadto
majorchangesinthewayfirms,labourmarketsanddistributionchainsfunction.Inthe
pasttheheadoffice,unionhiringhallandsupermarketservedtosignificantlyreduce
informationcosts.Inastoreoraroundthewatercooleritisrelativelyeasytogainaccess
andverifyinformation.Doingadealhappensonthespot.
Afullyoperationalandfunctionalcyberspacewilloffermanyandevenmoreofthesame
advantages.Buttherealgainswillbegeneratedby goingbeyondtheoldwaysofdoing
business.TakingfulladvantageoftheNet’spotentialfordirect(fewerintermediate
steps),flexible(widerrangeofsources)andevenspontaneous(lastminutesourcing)will
requirenewapproachestoorganisingabusiness,thehouseholdanddailylife.Anew
infrastructurewillneedtoemergetoreplaceoratleastenhancethefamiliarlunch
meetingsandbuddysystems.
Onthesupplysideonepossibilityisthatthecentralised,multifunctionalenterprisesand
distributionsystemsoftodaywilldissolveintocomponentparts,hookedintoavastand
moreefficientwebofsuppliersandconsumers.Evenmoresignificantly,inventing
productsaswellassellingthemcouldreversedirection,asconsumersgeneratethecustom
specificationstheydesireandthenseekoutcompetentproducersandevenotherbuyers.
Insteadoftoday’saggressivedistributionandmarketingwherethevendorpursuesthe
consumer,theNetmightusherinaworldwhereconsumers(individuallyorinnetworked

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 9 Riel Miller,1997
groupsorusingbrokers)solicitbids,developproductsorsendoutqueriesaimedat
fulfillingtheirneedsatthelowestprice(6195,6863).Thiswouldfinallyaccomplishwhat
themanagementgurushavebeentalkingaboutbytranscendingboththeoldindustrial
approachtomakingthingsandthearmyinspired,engineerrunhierarchicalcommand
structure.
Onthedemandsideitmaybecomepossibleforparticipantsacrossawiderangeof
differenttypesoftransactiontobecomemuchlessanonymoustooneanotherasvast
databases,telepresenceandvirtualrealityunveilexchangerelationshipsonceshroudedby
thelimitedavailability(orinadequacy)ofinformationonprice,qualityandpastbuyer’s
experiences.Hiddenbehindtheproductsontoday’ssupermarketshelvesarelongchains
ofproduction,nottomentionpeople.Consumerscouldbegintopiercethisveilof
mystery.UsingtheNetitmayonceagainbepossibletoknowthecowthatproducesthe
milkyoudrink(butthistimewithoutgettingyourbootsdirty).Withtheproximity
possiblethroughvirtualrealityitbecomesfeasibletoknowthehighlyskilledartisanthat
weavesyourcarpets,writesyoursoftware,buildsyourbicycle,cobblesyourshoesand
composesthemusicyoulike.Anewfabricforcommerceandinventionbecomes
possible.
Turningthepossibleintotheprobablewillnotoccurwithoutsignificantand,attimes
difficult,adaptationonthepartofworkers,managers,ownersandconsumers.The
requisitefirm,householdandcommunityinfrastructurewillemerge,inpart,aspeopleseek
toachievetheirpoliticalandsocialgoalsand,inpart,fromthepressureexertedbythe
competitiveforcesunleashedbytheNet’stransparencyandglobalreach.Consideringthe
latterissuefirst,itiscrucialformanagersandpolicymakerstorecognisethattheNetmay
radicallyaltertheeconomicconditionsthatunderliecompetition.
Competitionandcollusionincyberspace:ShouldtheNetsucceedinsurpassingthe
currenttraditionalsupplierandconsumerrelationshipsitmayalsoprofoundlyaltertwo
criticaldeterminantsofthecompetitiveconditionsofmostmarkets.Thefirstisthecostof
developingaproductandthenenteringaparticularsectorbybecomingaproducer.The
secondisthecostofbecomingknownorgainingaccesstobuyers,beingabletotapinto
largepoolsofpotentialconsumers.
Oneperspectiveholdsthattomorrow’sknowledgeeconomyrunningontheNetmay
unleashastormofcompetitionasboththecapitalcostsofentryintoamarketandthe
difficultyofestablishingrecognitionandtrustonthepartoftheconsumerevaporate
(6862,6859).Anopposingviewarguesthatslashinginformationcostsisjustaslikelyto
spawnmassivefirmsthatleveragetheNet’scapacitytoenhanceintrafirmcoordination
(intranets),productbrandinganddiscriminatorydistributionchannels,inordertoachieve
unassailablemarketdominanceinaworldcharacterisedbyinformationoverload(6625).
Inthislatterscenario,producerswillcontinuetobandtogether,evenmoreefficientlyand
withgreaterriskofcollusion,andtheroleofexperienceinbuildingtrustandconfidence
willcontinuetogivefamiliaremployersandsuppliersanadvantageovertheunfamiliar
(2004,2093).

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 10 Riel Miller,1997
Whichofthesetwoscenariosprevailswilllargelyhingeonwhetherornotbothsuppliers
andconsumersmanagetodeveloptheorganisationalinfrastructure(virtualornot)that
canassureinexpensiveandaccuratesharingofinformationaboutqualityandpriceinways
thatencouragerazorsharpcompetition,withoutoverreachingtobecomecartels.On
balanceitseemsunlikelythattheadvantagesaccruingtolarge,longstandingsuppliers
duetoaprovencapacitytocoordinateproductionandinspireconsumerconfidencewill
vanish(1671).Theremayevenbetheriskthatanewamorphouscentralisationorvirtual
exclusion(likethecyberspaceshoppingmallandsinglefirmintranetthatcancontrolentry
conditions),mademorepowerfulbytheNet,willendupstiflingcompetitionandforestall
theemergenceofanew,artisanalvaluechainwheretheconsumerisabletobecomea
producerandenterthemarket.Onceagainpoliticswillmakeadifferenceindetermining
theoutcome.
BEYONDTHENET:GRASPINGTHENEWSOCIOECONOMIC
POSSIBILITIES
Leastcertain,yetperhapsmostimportantarequestionsconcerninghowcollective
politicalandculturalaspirationsmightbeabletousetheNet’spotentialtoreshape
society.Aswithothertechnologiesthathavebecomeintrinsicpartsofeverydaylifelike
theautomobile,differentphysical,socialandeconomicconfigurationsmayprevailin
distinctivesocietieswithparticulartraditions,valuesandpoliticalpreferences.TheNetis
nodifferent,itopensuppossibilities,fromtheominoustotheutopian,forfacilitatingthe
developmentofnewortheconsolidationofoldsocialorders(2004).
Forinstance,thereseemstobelittledoubtthattheNet,wellsuitedasitistothe
intangibleoutputofalearningeconomy,couldplayamajorroleintopplingthealready
disintegratingmassproduction,massconsumptionsocietysocharacteristicofOECD
countriesinthepostwarera.CertainlytheNethasthecapacitytoencourage:unique
products,directconsumerproducerlinkages,completelyflexibleworkingarrangements,
andtheeasyentryofcompetitorsfromallovertheglobeintoequallydispersedmarkets
(7002).Suchdevelopmentsleadsometoenvisageasocietywherethepatternsofwork
andplaymoveawayfromfixedtimeslotsandlocations,officesandfactories,suburbsand
shoppingcentres,urbanmasstransitandmasseducation(6567,6917).Employment,
insteadofbeingconcentratedinfirms,coulddiffusetowhereverwealthcreationactually
occurs.And,wealthcreationcouldspreadintimeandspacetowhereverandwhenever
theconsumerproducerhappenstoundertakevalueaddedactivity.
Suchreconfigurationsofwhen,whereandhowweworkandlivehavealreadyoccurredin
thiscenturywiththeshiftoutofagricultureandlatelyawayfrommanufacturing.As
befitsanewfrontier,avastandcreativerangeofscenarios,reflectingdifferentaspirations
andpriorities,areemerging.
Forsomepeoplecyberspaceisseenasawayoffacilitatingthedevelopmentofamore
tolerant,democraticandcommunityorientedsociety.Cyberspacecould,withconcerted
effortstoensureaccess,confidenceandcompetition,enableaconsiderableredistribution
ofeconomicandpoliticaldecisionmakingpowerfromthehandsofmanagersand

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 11 Riel Miller,1997
representativesintothehandsofindividualsengageddirectlyinaddingvalueandshaping
theircommunitybasedonindepthpersonalknowledgeandtastes(6093).Insucha
futuresocietytheartisanasopposedtotoday’stechnocrat,thecitizenasopposedto
today’sbureaucratandtheindividualasopposedtotoday’semployer,mightbeableto
usecyberspacetogainmuchgreaterandmoredirectcontroloverwhattheyproduceand
thekindofcommunitytheylivein(e.g.whatreligiousormoralstandardsapply).
Thereareothervisionarieswhoseethepotentialofcyberspacetoreduceenvironmental
burdens.If“green”valuesandpoliciesprevail,cyberspaceefficienciescouldbringwithin
therealmofthefeasible,evenaffordablypractical,therealisationoflessenvironmentally
gluttonouswealthcreationbyhelpingto:slashprivateautomobileuse(nocommutingto
work,school,shopping),cutwasteinthedeliveryofgoodsandservices(betterscheduling
andpoolingfortangiblegoods,directdownloadfordigital items),improvebuildinglevel
systemsofenergygenerationandmanagement(5929).Byrenderingspaceandtimemore
pliableandmarketsmoreefficientitevenbecomesplausibletoimaginephysicaldistance
fromtheonslaughtoftoday’scitiesandmasssocietywithoutbeingcutofffromtheweb
ofinformationandexchangethatmakeseveryonesointerdependent(6857).Combining
theglobalandthelocalmightbedoable.
PoliticalVisionandCollectiveAction.Yet,evenasnewhorizonsbeckon,itremainsfar
fromclearwhatpoliticalorsocialprocesswillleadtothereplacementofyesterday’s
passiveworkerandconsumer,whowaittobetoldwhat,when,whereandhowto
produceandconsume,withanotherwayoflivingandworking(6283).Fashioninga
society ofindustrialworkersfromaworldoffarmerstookradical(forthetime)policies
suchastheintroductionofcompulsoryanduniversaleducationandmanydramaticand
brutaleventsfromwarsanddepressionstomassmigrationsandrevolutions.Itwilltake
leadership,insightandprobablyabitoflucktosuccessfullyextendandthengobeyond
thetraditionalhabitsandpoliciesthatsuitedourindustrialpast.
Whenlifewasruledbytherhythmofthesunandseasonsitseemedridiculousto
contemplatebeingruledbytheschoolbellandfactorywhistle.Butithappened.
Radicalrulesaretheonesthatchangethewaythegameisplayed.Taketheintroduction
ofcompulsoryschooling.Itwasanewrulethatradicallychangedbothlaborsupply
conditions(stoppingchildrenfromworking)andthecompetitivepositionofprevious
generationswhohadn’tbeenofferedfreeupgradingoftheirhumancapital.Orconsider
theintroductionoftheSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionwithitsimpositionofradical
requirementslikecommonaccountingandreportingconventions.
Theseradical(forthetime)rulesoftheindustrialagetendedtoencourage
standardization.Youngpeopleemergedfromschoolwithabasicsetofcognitiveand
behavioralskills(reading,writing,arithmetic,punctualityandobedience).Such
uniformitywasgoodformassproductionfactories,armiesandcentralizedstockmarkets.
Butitisnotthewaytomakethebestuseofthepotentialofcybespace.

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 12 Riel Miller,1997
Futurecollectiveactions,likethoseundertakenbygovernmentsonbehalfofallcitizens
whenframeworksareintroducedforfinancialorlabormarkets,willhavetoencourage
uniquenessandcreativity.Thesenewruleswillnotonlyloosenmanyoldconstraintsbut
asimportantlyreducetherisksofindependence.Otherwisegoingitalonewillremainthe
rareactofthefrontieroutlawordesperateoutcastinsteadofthewidespreadwayof
addingvalueinadecentralized,artisansociety.Tomorrow’sradicalruleswillneedto
liberateasmuchifnotmorethantheyconstrain.
ValuingHumanCapital.Oneexampleofanareaforsuchnew,paradoxicalrulesmeant
toencourageradicalsisintherealmofassessingwhatpeopleknow.Inthepastitwas
fairlysafetoconsiderahighschooldiplomatobeagoodindicatorofwhatsomeoneknew
basicliteracyanddependability.Employmentrecords,gatheredfromfamiliarfirmsin
recognizableoccupations,alsotoldagenerallyintelligiblestoryaboutwhatapersonknew
howtodo.Thesevagueindicatorsofproductivecapacitywereadequateforold
fashionedwhiteandbluecollarjobsheldforyearsonend.
Incyberspacethereductionofhighsearchcosts,longprobationperiodsandregular
failuresinfindingtherightpersonforthatoneoffjobiswhatwillmakethedifference
betweenabarrenandathrivingsettlement.Realizingthefullpotentialofcyberspacewill
hinge,inpart,ontheintroductionofrulesthatprovideuniversal,accessibleand
dependableinformationaboutwhatpeopleknow.Thatway whenIneedtohireyouto
cookmynextdinnerpartyordesignandfabricatemywallpaperorchecktheequationsin
atechnicalpaperorfindaperfectvacationspotI’llknowyourtrackrecord.
Rulesforassessingwhatpeopleknowwillhelppeoplefindtheservicestheyneed.And,
flexible,universalrulesthatvalidatewhatpeopleknowwillencouragetheaccumulationof
knowledgeinitsmany,oftenradicallyinnovativeforms.
Inthiswaytheblacksmithturnedassemblylineworker(re)turnedartisan getsthefreedom
tocreateandbecreative.Atthesametimethisinnovativecapacityanditseconomic
viabilityarefacilitatedbyrulesthatensureopenanddependablestandardstoguide
transactionsandinformationsharing.Combiningtherulelessworldoftheimagination
withtheconventionsorrulesdemandedbyacommonlanguagethatallowsunimpeded
exchangeistheparadoxoftomorrow’srulesforradicals.
Cybercitizenship.Anotherexampleofthetypeofnewrulesthatwillbeneededifwe
aretoencouragethecreativityandradicalismmadefeasiblebytheNethastodowith
identity.
Atthemoment,easilyverifiableandinviolateidentityarealmostunattainablein
cyberspace.Thiswillhavetochange.Asecureandclearidentityispivotalforthe
developmentofbothelectroniccommerceandtomorrow'svirtualcommunities.
WhenIwalkintoastore,pickupamagazine,gotothecash,putmymoneyonthe
counterandleave,I'veengagedinaquasianonymoustransaction.Thecashierhasseen
meandmightbeabletorecognizeme,butunlessI'vepaidbycreditcardorcheckthey
don'tknowmuchmoreaboutme.Thisisfairlyefficient.ThecashhascredibilityandI'm

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 13 Riel Miller,1997
physicallypresenttoassertmyexistence.Thereisnoneedforfurtherinformation about
meorthevendor.
Electroniccommerce,aseveryoneknows,promisestobeevenmoreefficientsinceIdon't
havetogotothecornerstoretogetmymagazine.And,anonymityontheNet,asall
canineinternautsknow,canbealmostcomplete.Informationcostsarekepttoa
minimum.Sofarsogood.
But,whathappenswhenIdon'twanttobeanonymousorevenmoreimportantlywhena
lackofverifiableidentityunderminescredibilityandliability?Thisiswherethe
informationcostsoftheNetbecome,forthetimebeing,morecostlythaninthematerial
world.
ConsiderafeweverydaywaysofusingtheNet,forinstance,tomakeadepositinan
internetbankortopurchaseasubscriptiontoaninternetmagazineorreturnafaulty
blenderpurchasedviatheNetorsubmitareportbacktothehomeoffice.Doesitmatter
thatabankhaslittlecapacitytoverifythatyouactuallyarewhoyouclaimtobe?Doesit
matterthatyouhavelittlewayofknowingifthebankormagazinereallyexistbeyonda
scam onamachine?IsitanobstacletobuyingsomethingviatheNetifyoudon'tknow
whotogobacktoiftheproductisfaultyorwhatlawsorjurisdictionapplytothevirtual
store?WillyouthinktwicebeforesubmittingacrucialdocumentviatheNetwhenyou
knowhoweasyitisforsomeonetoimpersonateyou?
Indeed,withoutcybercitizenshipandtherighttoasecureidentitytherecanbeno
privacy.Withoutcybercitizenshipandtheresponsibilitiesthatgowithidentifiabilitythere
canbenocredibility impersonation,fabricationanddefamationaretooeasy.Without
cybercitizenshiponlythestrong(rich)willbeabletoassertanddefendtheiridentities
usingthelatesttechnologicalwonders.Inshort,theeconomic,socialandpolitical
potentialoftheNetdependsonestablishingthekindsofrightsandresponsibilitiesthat
werewonlongagointhestrugglesfortoday'smorefamiliarnationalcitizenship.
Theadventofcybercitizenshipdoesnotexclude,infactitmayfacilitatethedevelopment
ofbothmoreinternationalandexclusiveidentitiesofferedbyprivatefirmsorgroupsof
likemindedindividuals.Thereisstillplentyofscopefortelecom,travelandcreditcard
companiestooffer"gold"statusoraffinityidentitiescontainingadditionalorspecial
informationaboutyou.This,inturn,shouldhelptounderscoretheglobalnatureofcyber
citizenshipandmayperhapspavethewayforauniversallygrantedrighttoan
internationalidentityincyberspace.
Auniversalglobalsystem,nottiedtonationstatesandinviolatefromnationalistexcuses
forinvadingprivacymayperhaps,oneday,unitethepeopleoftheworldincyberspacein
wayswehavefounddifficultonthesurfaceofoursmallplanet.Thismayendupbeingthe
routetoextendingthehardwonrightsandprivilegesofnationalcitizenship,alongwith
theresponsibilitiesandjurisdictionalaffiliation,tothegloballevel.
GettingfromHeretoThere.Niethermarketnorindividuallogicalonearelikelytopush
throughalltheneededchangesinourpoliticalandsocialinfrastructure.Commutingby
carpollutes,takestime,consumersenergyandcostshugeamountsforthephysical
infrastructure,yetmostpeopletaketheircartowork,toshopandtoplay.Fewpeople
havethetime,wealthorevendesiretodiscoverexactlywhoandhowtheirbreakfast
cerealwasproducedeventhoughafairnumbersuspectthatdangerouspesticidesor

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 14 Riel Miller,1997
preservativesmayhavebeenadded.Nordomanypeopleworryaboutwhattheir
communitymightlooklikeifthenewzoningbylawpassescitycouncil.
Toooften,giventhecurrentcultureandincentivesystems,thefutureofourqualityoflife
isasecondaryconcern.Gatheringthenecessaryinformation,sharingideasandlearning
enoughtodeveloptheknowledgeneededfordecisionmakingarecostlypursuitsthat
remainoutsidetherealmofpractical,everydayactivity.Itisnotsurprising,inthis
context,thatdemocracyisformostcitizensaveryparttimeaffair,iftheyvoteatall.
Littlewonderthatdiscouragementandcynicismsurroundmanyofourpolitical
institutions.
Curingtheseillswillnotbethemagicoutcomearisingfromtheintroductionofnew
technologiesliketheNet.Atthemomentitremainsuncertainifcyberspacewillactually
becomeanewfrontier,aspaceforthedemocraticrealisationofhumanaspirations,or
simplyanothertechnologythatenhancesefficiency.Willthepotentialofthis
technologicaltidalwavetoreconfiguresocietybeshapedbyexplicit,democraticallyposed
choicesorwillthepoliticalprocess,laggingtoofarbehindthepracticalchanges,be
confinedtoassertingourcollectivevaluesandimaginationafterthefact?Pastexperience
hassadlydemonstratedthatsimplydiscoveringnewterritory asislikelytohappenas
theNet’soperationalfunctionalinfrastructurepushesaheadinthenextdecadesdoes
notguaranteeeitherprosperityoradvancementofthehumanspirit.Collectivechoices
andtheaspirationsunderpinningarewhatwillmakethedifference.
2004ROADWARRIORS:DREAMSANDNIGHTMARESALONGTHE
INFORMATIONHIGHWAYByBurstein,Daniel;Kline,David;PenguinBooks,New
York,NY,US,466P.(1995)
2093ASURVEYOFTHEWORLDECONOMY:THEHITCHHIKERS'GUIDETO
CYBERNOMICS ByWoodall,Pam,in:TheEconomist,Vol.340,No.7985,24P.
(1996)
5929SPACE,PLACE,ANDTHEINFOBAHN:CITYOFBITSByMitchell,
WilliamJ.;TheMITPress,Cambridge,MA,US,225P.(1995)
6033INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGIESByPatterson,DavidA.;Zysman,GeorgeI.;
Chan,VincentW.S.;Lenat,DouglasB.;Maes,Pattie;Laurel,Brenda;Daggatt,
Russell,in:ScientificAmerican,Vol.273,No.3,PP.4871(1995)
6093THECYBERFUTURE:92WAYSOURLIVESWILLCHANGEBYTHE
YEAR2025ByCornish,Edward,in:TheFuturist,Vol.30,No.1,PP.2742(1996)
6115CRIMEINCYBERSPACEByStephens,Gene,in:TheFuturist,Vol.29,No.5,
PP.2428(1995)

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 15 Riel Miller,1997
6195THEINFOMEDIAREVOLUTION:HOWITISCHANGINGOURWORLD
ANDYOURLIFEByKoelsch,Frank;McGrawHillRyersonLtd,Whitby,Ont,CA,
358P.(1995)
6283ELECTRONICPOWERTOTHEPEOPLE:WHOISTECHNOLOGY'S
KEEPERONTHECYBERSPACEFRONTIER?ByOgden,MichaelR.,in:
TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,Vol.52,No.2&3,PP.119133(1996)
6434OFFICESPACE,CYBERSPACEANDVIRTUALORGANIZATIONBy
Barnatt,Christopher,in:JournalofGeneralManagement,Vol.20,No.4,PP.7891
(1995)
6567FUTURECOMMUNICATION(orig.FremtidenKommunikation)ByHoppe,
MariaTherese;Nielsen,ArnoVictor;Lyngsø;Olesen,Axel,in:Fremtidsorientering,No.
4,PP.734(1996)
6625THEFUTUREFORMULTIMEDIA THEBATTLEFORWORLD
DOMINANCEByGriffith,MartinWyn;Taylor,Bernard,in:Long RangePlanning,
Vol.29,No.5,PP.643651(1996)
6664CYBERSPACEANDTHEAMERICANDREAM:AMAGNACARTAFOR
THEKNOWLEDGEAGEByDyson,Esther;Gilder,George;Keyworth,George;
Toffler,Alvin,in:TheInformationSociety,Vol.12,No.3,PP.295308(1996)
6855THEUNPREDICTABLECERTAINTY:INFORMATIONINFRASTRUCTURE
THROUGH2000ByTheNationalAcademyofSciences,NationalAcademyPress,
Washington,DC,US,281P.(1996)
6857UNIVERSALACCESSTOEMAIL:FEASIBILITYANDSOCIETAL
IMPLICATIONSByAnderson,RobertH.;Bikson,ToraK.;Law,SallyAnn;Mitchell,
BridgerM.;RAND,SantaMonica,US,267P.(1995)
6858THEFUTUREOFELECTRONICCOMMERCE:FIFTHANNUAL
ROUNDTABLEONINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGYByBollier,David;TheAspen
Institute,Washington,DC,US,64P.(1996)
6859RULINGTHENETBySpar,Debora;Bussgang,JeffreyJ.,in:HarvardBusiness
Review,Vol.74,No.3,PP.125141(1996)
6860LABOURMANAGEMENTPROGRAMME:GLOBALINFORMATION
INFRASTRUCTURE,GLOBALINFORMATIONSOCIETYByOECD,External
RelationsDivision,Paris,FR,30P.(1996)
6862ELECTRONICCOMMERCEANDTHEINTERNETByPyle,Raymond,in:
CommunicationsoftheACM,Vol.39,No.6,PP.2399(1996)

OECDInternationalFuturesProgramme 16 Riel Miller,1997
6863THEFUTUREOFSOFTWAREByLeebaert,Derek,ed.;TheMITPress,
Cambridge,MA,US,300P.(1995)
6866THEDIGITALENTERPRISE:HOWNEWTECHNOLOGIESARE
TRANSFORMINGFRENCHCOMPANIES(orig.L'EntrepriseDigitale:Commentles
NouvellesTechnologiestransformentlesEntreprisesFrançaises)ByAndré,Arnaud;
Habib,Jacques;Guez,JeanClaude;Vandebrouck,Guy;EditionsGénéralesFirst,Paris,
FR,351P.(1996)
6889EUROPEANINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGYOBSERVATORY1997By
EUROBIT,EuropeanInformation TechnologyObservatory,1997,Frankfurt/Main,DE,
(1997)
6917THEEMPLOYMENTPOTENTIALOFNEWELECTRONICMEDIA(orig.
BeschäftigungspotentialeneuerelektronischerMedien)ByIFOInstitutfür
Wirtschaftsforschung,in:IFOSchnelldienst,Vol.50,No.3,1997,PP.318(1997)
7001DIGITALMONEY:THENEWERAOFINTERNETCOMMERCEByLynch,
DanielC.;Lundquist,Leslie;JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,NewYork,NY,US,279P.
(1996)
7002WHATWILLBE:HOWTHENEWWORLDOFINFORMATIONWILL
CHANGEOURLIVESByDertouzos,Michael;HarperCollinsPublishers,NewYork,
NY,US,336P.(1997)