Warming Winters and New Hampshire's Lost Ski Areas: An Integrated Case Study

Abstract

New Hampshire’s mountains and winter climate support a ski industry that contributes substantially to the state economy. Through more than 70 years of history, this industry has adapted and changed with its host society. The climate itself has changed during this period too, in ways that influenced the ski industry’s development. During the 20th century, New Hampshire’s mean winter temperature warmed about 2.1° C (3.8° F). Much of that change occurred since 1970. The mult-decadal variations in New Hampshire winters follow global temperature trends. Snowfall exhibits a downward trend, strongest in southern New Hampshire, and also correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Many small ski areas opened during the early years while winters were cold and snowy. As winters warmed, areas in southern or lowelevation locations faced a critical disadvantage. Under pressure from both climate and competition, the number of small ski areas leveled off and then fell steeply after 1970. The number of larger, chairliftoperating ski areas began falling too after 1980. Aprolonged warming period increased the importance of geographic advantages, and also of capital investment in snowmaking, grooming and economic diversification. The consolidation trend continues today. Most of the surviving ski areas are located in the northern mountains. Elsewhere around the state, one can find the remains of “lost” ski areas in places that now rarely have snow suitable for downhill skiing. This case study demonstrates a general approach for conducting integrated empirical research on the human dimensions of climate change.

Full text

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 52
WARMING WINTERS AND NEW HAMPSHIRE’S LOST SKI
AREAS: An Integrated Case Study
by Lawrence C. Hamilton, Department of Sociology, University of New
Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824; David E. Rohall, Department of
Sociol ogy, Western Illinois University, Macomb, IL 61455; Benjamin
C. Brown, Department of Sociology, University of New Hampshire,
Durham, NH 03824; Gregg F. Hayward, Whittemore School of
Business and Economics, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH
03824 and Barry D. Keim, Southern Regional Climate Center, Louisiana
State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803
Abstract
New Hampshire’s mountains and winter climate support a ski industry
that cont ributes substantially to the state economy. Through more than
70 years of history, this industry has adapted and changed with its host
soci ety. The climate itself has changed during this period too, in ways
that influenced the ski indu stry’s d evelopme nt. Durin g the 20 th century,
New Hampshire’s mean winter temperature warmed about 2.1° C (3.8°
F). Much of that change occurred since 1970. The multi-decadal
variations in New Hampshire winters follow global temperature trends.
Downward trends in snowfall, strongest in southern New Hampshire,
also correlate with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Many small ski areas
opened during the early years while winters were cold and snowy. As
winters warmed, areas in southern or low-elevation locations faced a
critical disadvantage. Under pressure from both climate and
competition, the number of small ski areas leveled off and then fell
steeply after 1970. The number of larger, chairlift-operating ski areas
began falling too after 1980. A prolonged warming period increased the
importance of geographic advantages, and also of capital investment in
snowmaking, grooming and economic diversification. The consolidation
trend continues today. Most of the surviving ski areas are located in the
northern mountains. Elsewhere around the state, one can find the
remains of “lost” ski areas in places that now rarely have snow suitable
for downhill skiing.

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 53
Introduction
The first “human dimensions” contributions to global-change research
involved speculation about possible impacts of future climatic change,
built atop natural scientists’ forecasts. Such work has obvious value, but
remains incomplete as a research strategy. It lacks an observational
component analogous to the empirical work that has been so critical in
advancing natural-science climate research (e.g., Serreze et al. 2000). To
build stronger foundations for human-dimensions research, we also need
empirical studies focusing on responses of contemporary societies to
observed variations in climate. Such studies ideally should involve (1)
climate-sensitive human activities that are economically or socially
important; (2) substantial historical climatic variation; (3) linkage
between local variations and global processes; and (4) time series data
on both climate and socioeconomic variables. In this paper, we present
findings from one such study, focusing on warming winters and the ski
industry of New Hampshire.
Skiing comprises a climate-sensitive activity, particularly in
regions such as New Hampshire where the difference between good and
bad years (or even days) can be large. The ski industry has been an
important part of New Hampshire’s economy since the 1930s (Allen
1997). From the time leaves fall in autumn until they return in late
spring, snow is the state’s main tourism draw. As a result, skiing was
recently named the official state sport. It generated $566 million in
visitor spending and nearly $58 million in tax revenue in 2000,
accounting for around 10% of the wintertime jobs (Ski New Hampshire
2002). New Hampshire is among the top five U.S. states in terms of the
economic benefit from skiing as a percentage of the state’s economy.
Unfortunately, the frequency of poor conditions for skiing in this
state has been increasing. We note that changes in New Hampshire
winters have taken place in step with global warming trends. As winters
grew warmer, the ski industry shifted from expansion to consolidation.
An industry historically characterized by many small areas evolved into
one dominated by just a handful of large, highly capitalized areas. The
timing and geography of this shift suggest that the consolidation was

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 54
driven partly by climatic pressures, interacting with more obvious social
and economic forces. Climatic change favored ski areas with particular
geographical advantages and ever-escalating investments. In reshaping
the ski-industry landscape, climatic change affected skier experiences
and expenditures as well.
In this paper we begin with a description of New Hampshire’s
winter climate, and the uncertainties this produces for skiing. Warming
winters have made ski conditions less predictable and marginalized
formerly viable locations. We next review the history of ski areas in
New Hampshire, focusing on the many “lost” areas that have come and
gone. Time series of temperature and ski-area counts show a notable
correspondence. Closures have moved the industry’s center of gravity
northwards in the state, away from population centers but towards the
most reliable snow. Climatic change increased the importance of heavy
investment in snowmaking and economic diversification, which left
behind nearly all of the smaller ski areas. Some degree of consolidation
would certainly have occurred due to non-climate economic forces, but
climate directly and indirectly strengthened this trend. These
conclusions fit with those of other recent studies on ski industries and,
more broadly, the human dimensions of environmental change.
New Hampshire Winters
“Our three biggest years [in terms of ski revenue] all coincided with
a lot of natural snowfall.... Climate, I think, is the number one reason
why people go skiing or not.” (Ski industry executive, 2002)
Winters in New Hampshire exhibit wild variation, even on small spatial
and temporal scales. Snowstorms often change over to rain or vice
versa, and rain/ice/snow lines commonly are drawn across weather maps
of the state, separating adjacent communities. Year-to-year variations
can be dramatic as well, ranging from deep snowdrifts one February to
solid ice or dry hillsides the next. Such variations, problematic for the
ski industry, relate to four aspects of the state’s geography (Keim and
Rock 2001).

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 55
CAt the state’s mid-latitude location, halfway between the equator
and the north pole, fierce battles rage between warm, moist
airmasses from the south and cold, dry airmasses to the north.
Fronts passing through bring a change from one airmass to
another. Unusual dominance by either warm or cold airmasses
produces warm or cold winters, and either liquid or solid
precipitation.
CIn late winter, sea surface temperatures off the state’s southeast
coast fall to 2.5° – 3.0° C (36.5° – 37.4° F). During snowstorms,
these waters remain warm relative to land, which influences
snow–rain boundaries. It is not unusual for the coastal zone to
receive rainfall while snow occurs at some distance inland —
with that distance varying dramatically between storms.
CThe prevailing westerly winds bring drier continental air from
the U.S. and Canada, giving the state a continental rather than
maritime climate. It can get cold in the winter because the
moderating influence of the ocean is minimized, especially
towards the north. When cyclonic storms (“nor’easters”) march
up the East Coast of the U.S., the region briefly experiences
northeast winds. In wintertime, nor’easters often produce
blizzards.
CNew Hampshire has mountainous topography ranging from sea
level to 1917 meters (6288 feet) in elevation. Mountains can
enhance precipitation on their windward side, creating drier
conditions downwind. Increases in elevation also lead to cooler
air temperatures, enhancing either rainfall or snowfall totals.
The rain/ice/snow line thus varies by geography and elevation,
sometimes changing rapidly. Northern New Hampshire, generally higher
and farther from the sea, receives more snow than the southern part of
the state. Figure 1 compares mean monthly snowfall for the cities of
Keene, in southern New Hampshire, and Berlin, in the north (see Figure
6 for locations). In northern New Hampshire, December and January are
months of maximum snowfall, whereas January forms the distinct peak

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 56
at most locations in the south. Statewide precipitation is nearly the same
in both December and January. In northern New Hampshire, December
temperatures are more consistently cold enough to yield snow, hence the
higher snowfall totals. In southern New Hampshire, however, more of
December’s precipitation falls as rain; snow becomes more common in
January as temperatures cool. New Hampshire winters also have a
tendency to linger into the early spring for reasons explained by
Bradbury et al. (2002a), so that March receives almost as much snow as
the core winter months. One consequence of these patterns for New
Hampshire skiing is that seasonal snowfall accumulation for an
“average” year begins later and ends sooner in the south than the north,
and that New Hampshire winters begin and end later than comparable
places in the western United States.
Figure 1: Mean snowfall by month for the New Hampshire cities of Keene
(south) and Berlin (north), based on records from the winters of 1950–1951
through 2001–2002.

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 57
Climatic Trends
“It doesn’t snow like it used to.” (Skier looking back on half a century
of experience, 2002)
The preceding section described average patterns over a half-century of
observations. Wide inter-annual variations in these patterns leave New
Hampshire ski areas vulnerable to short-term weather changes,
particularly in the south. But longer-term trends towards warmer and
less snowy winters have systematically increased pressures on ski area
operations. Figure 2 displays the inter-annual variability in New
Hampshire winter temperatures (based on Climate Divisional Data from
the National Climatic Data Center, see Guttman and Quayle, 1996).
Over 1896–2002 (winters of 1895–1896 through 2001–2002) the state’s
mean winter temperature warmed by 2.1° C (3.8° F). The linear trend is
statistically significant (P < .001), and the true warming probably is
substantially greater than that shown by these data (Keim et al. 2003).
A linear model oversimplifies the story, however. Twentieth-century
warming has been uneven, and most pronounced after 1975. The run of
above-average temperatures in the last two decades includes 6 of the 10
warmest winters in a century. The winter of 2001–2002 was the
warmest ever recorded.
The smooth curve in Figure 2 was obtained by locally weighted
scatterplot smoothing, or lowess regression, using a bandwidth of 0.5
(Hamilton 2002). This smoothing reveals a global signal. Zweirs and
Weaver (2000:2081) observed that:
“Since 1860, global mean surface air temperatures have
increased by 0.6 ±0.2° C, but this warming has not been
continuous. Most of the warming has occurred during two
distinct periods, from 1910 to 1945 and since 1976, with a very
gradual cooling during the intervening period.”
The global warming, cooling and warming eras they describe apply to
New Hampshire as well. Vertical lines in Figure 2 delineate the

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 58
Figure 2: New Hampshire winter mean temperature, 1896–2002. Annual
Decem ber–March values as mean deviations, and lowess regression curve
showing multi-decade trends.
1910–1945 warming, gradual 1945–1975 cooling, and 1975–present
warming periods. Thus, New Hampshire winters over the past century
conform to a global pattern. The cold averages and exceptionally severe
winters in the first third of the 20th century have counterparts elsewhere
in the Northwest Atlantic (Serreze et al. 2000). As mean winter
temperatures rose closer to th e m elting point in the late 20th century,
some ski areas faced threats to their basic resource.
Mean winter precipitation weakly but significantly (P < .05)
declined from 1895–1896 to 2001–2002, by about 1.5 cm (0.6 inches)
(Figure 3). Again, details are nonlinear: most of the decline took place
in the first part of the century, so it is not implicated in ski-industry
developments. Winter precipitation without sub-freezing temperatures
(that is, ice storms and rain) have recently been the bane of New
Hampshire skiing.

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 59
Figure 3: New Hampshire winter mean precipitation, 1896–2002. Annual
mean deviations, and lowess regression smoothed trend.
Figure 4 graphs annual snowfall amounts for the cities of Keene
and Berlin over the winters of 1950–1951 through 2001–2002. In most
years, Berlin’s northern location received noticeably more snow.
Regression lines show the overall downward trends: Berlin’s mean
snowfall declined by 43 cm (17 inches) during this period (P = .16),
while Keene’s went down 58 cm (23 inches, P < .05). Both trends are
unhappy ones for ski areas, but the lower starting point and steeper
decline observed at Keene spell difficulties for southern operations.
More troubling than the average decline has been the increasing
frequency of low-snow winters.
As with the temperature data in Figure 2, we find that the
snowfall data in Figure 4 contain a global signal. These snowfall series
correlate negatively (r = –.4 or –.5, P < .01) with the winter North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The NAO index represents a large-
scale atmospheric phenomenon in the North Atlantic Basin. In recent
years this index has attained historically unprecedented high values,
associated with widespread northern-hemisphere climatic changes
(Hurrell et al. 1997, 2001; Langenberg 2000; Serreze et al. 2000). The

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 60
Figure 4: Snowfall in Keene (so uth) a nd B erlin (no rth), 1951–2002.
Seasonal totals and linear trends (OLS regres sion).
index is defined from differences between sea-level air pressure
measured in Iceland and the Azores or Lisbon. A positive-NAO state
classically involves a high-pressure anomaly centered over Greenland,
with a low-pressure anomaly across the Atlantic to its south.
Characteristic wind patterns affect climate around the Atlantic. In their
report on climate change, the New England Regional Assessment Group
observed that positive NAO is associated with rising coastal water
temperatures:
“The winter warming trend in southern New England coastal waters
correlates well with the transition from a prolonged negative NAO
winter index phase to a positive phase between 1950 and 1990.”
(2001:24)
Rising NAO also correlates with increasing winter streamflow in New
England, which could reflect warmer temperatures and/or precipitation
changes (Bradbury et al., 2002b). Our analysis extends the NAO
connection to snowfall: positive NAO is associated with lower snowfall,
which as noted has connections to both water and air temperatures. The

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 61
NAO–snowfall correlation involves decadal-scale cycles as well as
multi-decadal trends. These results support findings of Hartley and
Keables (1998) who demonstrate that high (low) New England snowfall
is associated with enhanced meridional (zonal) circulation along the East
Coast of the United States, indicative of negative (positive) NAO values.
Less snowfall, combined with roughly stable precipitation and increasing
streamflow, suggests that a larger fraction of winter precipitation now
falls in liquid form.
The Lost Ski Areas
“Our niche was with families. We were the place where you could see
your kids, and the lift attendants might even know the names of the
kids.” (Former owner of a small ski area, 2001)
An ancient Scandinavian technology, skis were introduced to New
Hampshire by Norwegian immigrants in the la te 19th century.
Originally, skis served mainly as practical transportation in deep snow.
A shift towards recreational applications was pioneered by the
Dartmouth Outing Club, which promoted events and began ski clubs
during the late 1910s and early 1920s (Allen 1997).
The first “ski areas” emerged as avid skiers began to cut ski trails
through the woods. Dartmouth club members made descents of the
Mount Moosilauke carriage road during the 1920s. In 1932, work began
on a ski trail on Cannon Mountain. The following summer the Civilian
Conservation Corps cut additional trails at several White Mountain
locations. The first rope tow in New Hampshire began operating in
1935, among the earliest such facilities in North America (New England
Ski Museum 2002).
From 1935 to 1950, dozens of new ski areas opened. They
typically started on a small scale, then over time invested in new trails,
lifts and amenities for their guests. Two major resorts opened in the late
1930s: Cannon Mountain and Mount Cranmore, both still operating
toda y. Cannon possessed a tramway, 654-meter (2146-foot) vertical
drop, ski patrol and a ski school. Although Mount Cranmore had less
vertical relief (356 meters or 1167 feet) to work with, it would become

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 62
the first full-amenities ski resort in New Hampshire. A unique lift called
a “skimobile” was built, along with base lodging and a resort community
modeled after Sun Valley, Idaho (New Hampshire Ski Museum 2002).
Other resorts, some much larger, followed in later decades as skiing
became a multibillion-dollar industry. Successful ski areas today must
offer a high level of service, reliable skiing conditions and fast lifts.
Condominiums and other real estate developments play a major role in
the business strategies of most.
Over this 70-year history, many ski areas have opened, drawn
crowds for a while, then closed down. The New England Lost Ski Areas
Project maintains a Web site (NELSAP 2002) dedicated to preserving
the history of these vanished but not forgotten areas. At this writing,
NELSAP’s list includes more than 400 “lost” ski areas, 155 in New
Hampshire alone. Many of the lost areas were quite small operations,
but they also include some once-substantial enterprises served by
chairlifts or even a gondola, with base lodges and real-estate
developments. The NELSAP framework provided a starting point for
our own database, which we extended using archival and interview data.
In addition to NELSAP’s lost ski areas, our project database includes the
current survivors. For purposes of this analysis, we concentrate on
Alpine or downhill skiing, and do not include the fairly recent
development of areas specialized in Nordic or cross-country skiing.
Our database is a work still in progress, but we currently have
“opening year” and (if closed) “closing year” for 123 New Hampshire
downhill ski areas. Three-quarters of these (93) are small enterprises
that operated only simple lifts such as rope tows, T-bars or J-bars. The
remainder (30) are more substantial. We used the operation of a chairlift
or gondola at any time as a criterion to roughly distinguish the smallest
areas from those medium-to-large. Rope tows and J-bars are much less
expensive than chairlifts. Chairlifts carry more weight uphill, requiring
larger engines and heavier cables in addition to high and well-anchored
towers. Chairlifts also need more employees both to operate the
machinery and to assist skier loading and unloading. Thus in comparing
non-chairlift with chairlift areas, we are looking across the beginning of

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 63
a capital divide that (for the most successful areas) widened enormously
over time.
Figure 5 graphs the number of downhill ski areas of each type,
chairlift or other, known to be operating in New Hampshire over the
years 1930–2001. Despite some missing records, our data are complete
enough to show overall trends. We see the proliferation of small areas
in the 1930s, then a wartime hiatus. (Several small areas that opened at
unknown dates during the 1930s are graphed at “1930,” so the starting
level of this curve is too high but it becomes more accurate by the
decade’s end.) A relatively cold, snowy climate did not “cause” the
proliferation of small areas in the 1930s and 40s, but rather, was among
the conditions that made this proliferation possible. The number of
small areas peaked in the early 1950s, and fluctuated not far below that
level for the next two decades. After 1970 the number of small areas
rapidly declined. Non-climatic factors including an interstate highway
that improved access to four large northern resorts, the 1973 energy
Figure 5: Number of known downhill ski areas operating in New
Hampshire, 1930–2002. Small areas that never possessed a chairlift or
gondola are shown se parately (dashed line).

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 64
crisis that created hardships for both skiers and ski areas, and increasing
costs of liability insurance contributed to the early-70s decline of small
areas.
The more capital-intensive chairlift areas proliferated at a slower
pace, but they continued to increase while small areas struggled and
closed in the 1950s, 60s and 70s. The number of chairlift-served ski
areas only began to decline in the 1980s. Today 17 chairlift-served
areas, ranging from minor local hills to four-season destination resorts,
remain in operation. Figure 5 traces a business story of larger ski areas
competing more successfully for skiers, and eventually taking over the
market. But there are details in the paths of both curves that reflect the
influence of climate change as well.
Two vertical lines in Figure 5, at 1945 and 1975, delineate the
climate-trend eras described earlier with respect to Figure 2 and global
temperatures. Before 1945, temperatures were rising but still generally
quite cold. Thus the initial boom of small ski areas occurred at a time
when New Hampshire winters were more formidable than today. Put
another way, many of these areas were built and found good enough
conditions in locations that would later become less practical for natural-
snow skiing. A ski area could start up with minimal investment because
nature provided all the snow. Thus although social and economic forces
drove ski area development, climate made it possible.
A series of warm winters in the 1950s (Figure 2), including three
successive low-snow years for southern New Hampshire (Figure 4),
coincides with a dip in the number of small areas seen in Figure 5. (The
Korean War, 1950–53, probably contributed to the 1950s dip as well.)
Subsequently more average conditions prevailed, so that overall the
1945–1975 period saw a slight cooling trend as well as several high-
snowfall years. The number of larger areas had grown fourfold by the
end of this period, while the number of small areas was rapidly falling.
After 1975, winters began the marked warming trend that
continues today, and low-snow years became more frequent. Small areas
continued to drop out rapidly. Although non-climatic factors had

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 65
contributed to the early-70s drop in small areas, a second steep drop in
the mid-70s followed several years of declining snowfall and above-
average temperatures. Within a few years the number of chairlift-served
areas began shrinking as well, for the first time since the ski industry
began. By 2002 only 17 chairlift areas remained in operation, and
several of these were economically precarious. The strongest ski resorts
were those with massive investments in snowmaking and grooming,
supported by real-estate developments and year-round diversification
programs.
Figure 6 maps the geographical distribution of New Hampshire
ski areas at 25-year intervals. Comparing 1925 (no areas) with 1950
shows the early-years proliferation of small areas scattered around the
state, with a center of gravity towards the south where most of the
population resides. By 1975 many of these small areas had closed, while
the number of chairlift areas increased. Most of the small and southern
areas, along with some larger resorts, are gone by 2000. The center of
gravity has shifted towards a handful of large northern resorts. Some
northern areas possess a second great advantage besides snow: bigger
mountains, allowing vertical drops of 600 meters (2,000 feet) or more.
The northern disadvantage is distance from population centers including
the state’s main cities as well as southern New England. Convenience
and cost factors associated with this distance should have left a market
niche for more southerly areas, if their skiing conditions could compete
with the north.
Adaptation to Change
“It [the lack of natural snow] got so bad it couldn’t be ignored. By
1981–82, it became obvious that if you wanted to stay in the business,
you had to have top-to-bottom snowmaking.” (Ski historian, 2002)
“[In the 1980s] The larger areas ... were putting a lot of capital into
high-speed chairs, fine grooming and snowmaking. And so they were
really becoming a class ahead. And as the medium size areas ... tried
to compete, they overextended themselves and [in] light economic
downturns or bad snow years they had no reserves to back them up.”
(Snow engineer, 2002)

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 66
Figure 6: Geographical distribution of New Hampshire downhill ski areas
known to be operating in 1925, 1950, 1975 and 2000.

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 67
Artificial snowmaking began spreading among New England ski resorts
during the 1960s. In the early years it was largely a novelty, but as
technology improved, natural snow became less reliable and skiers
increasingly expected a “groomed” product, snowmaking turned into a
necessity. Major areas spent millions of dollars on snowmaking
equipment during the late 1970s and early 1980s. The successful ones
left behind other areas that could not keep up with the pace of
investment. Artificial snow can be produced whenever the temperature
falls below freezing, so ski areas could add fresh surface and build base
depth more or less continuously if desired. Artificially-produced snow
is denser than natural snow and melts more slowly in the spring, as well.
Snowmaking thus lengthened the ski season while insuring more
consistently skiable conditions. Aggressive snowmaking programs
became a marketing attraction to draw skiers, who could immediately
see the advantages. Today, all of New Hampshire’s large ski areas make
snow, and on average they can cover more than 90% of their terrain (Ski
New Hampshire 2002).
To support snowmaking, the ski area needs access to a large
source of water. Tapping local rivers or lakes expands the ecological
footprint of ski areas, and has led to environmental-impact controversies.
The availability of water for s nowmaking (whether “availability” is
limited by environmental, political or economic factors) became another
geographical dimension that could help or hurt particular ski areas.
Investments in the water source, a pumping system, pipes, energy and the
associated personnel add to the formidable costs of large-scale
snowmaking. Ski areas had no choice but to make such investments or
watch their skiers go elsewhere. Today only a few small community
slopes operate without snowmaking. But even for the areas with
snowmaking, due to climate change the number of days available to ski
has decreased in New Hampshire over the last few decades (Palm 2001).
Unseasonably warm weather not only melts the existing snow but
reduces the opportunities to make more.
Competitive ski areas require other substantial investments in
addition to snowmaking (Hudson 2000). It has become increasingly
desirable to develop summer programs t hat contribute to year-round

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 68
income, help maintain core staff and reduce reliance on the unpredictable
winter season. Liability insurance has been another area of growing
costs. One critical field of investment has been real estate. A ski area
can promote adjacent condominium and resort developments that are
more profitable than the ski area itself. Lack of prospects for real estate
development, for example at areas surrounded by National Forest land,
can limit the capital available for new lifts, snowmaking, grooming and
other competitive enhancements. Conversely, some condominium
developments have been marooned when their ski areas closed.
As ski areas escalated their investments, the cost of a day’s skiing
rose too. Expensive lift tickets probably reduce the number of visits, and
discourage some individuals and families from skiing at all. This likely
contributes to the stagnant or contracting number of skier visits reported
by many ski areas, despite a growing regional population. Less snowy
weather, including less snow in the cities where it would put skiing into
people’s minds, contributes to the business decline as well. Although
some of the economic forces behind ski industry consolidation appear
unrelated to climate, warming winters have reinforced other pressures
and added to them in indirect ways.
Discussion
The New England Regional Assessment Group’s overview report on
climate change in New England puts forth two central conclusions: the
regional climate has warmed over the past century; and models project
significant warming over the next century (2001:ii). Observational
records inform their first point, and computer simulations support the
second. In this paper, we have extended their analysis by focusing on
New Hampshire’s winter climate, where the observed 20th-century
changes have been greatest (2001:12). New Hampshire temperature and
snowfall trends are not simply local variations, but correlate with
changes in global climate. Secondly, we have examined how the
climatic record provides a context for reinterpreting the history of New
Hampshire’s ski industry. The proliferation of small low-investment ski
areas in the early days, particularly at southern and low-elevation
locations, was possible because winters then tended to be snowy and

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 69
cold. Extinction of the small areas, and concentration of the industry
into a few high-investment, high-elevation northern areas, was driven
partly by a changing climate. The choices available to skiers have
shifted as well, away from their lower-cost options. These observations
about historical developments provide an empirical foundation for
projecting future change if the climate continues to warm.
Our findings relating New Hampshire climate and the fate of ski
areas fit well with Palm’s (2001) New Hampshire/Vermont analysis.
Palm discovered that 700,000 fewer skier visits occurred during the three
worst snow years of the period 1984–2001, as compared with the three
best snow years. The lost revenue of low-snow years must have been
particularly challenging for areas that were already struggling
economically.
Our New Hampshire results also parallel conclusions reached in
a study of climate change and ski resorts in Switzerland:
“If climate change occurs, the level of snow-reliability will rise from
1200 m up to 1800 m over the next few decades. Only 44% of the ski
resorts would then be snow-reliable.... Climate change must be
viewed as a catalyst that is reinforcing and accelerating the pace of
structural changes in tourism.” (Elsasser and Bürki 2002:253)
Whereas the Swiss study mainly concerned future climate change, we
have examined data from the recent past. That such similar conclusions
would arise from studies on different continents, using unrelated
methods and data, and with predictive vs. retrospective perspectives,
suggests that the conclusions are fairly robust. We suspect that structural
changes will be occurring in many other places as global change affects
seasonal recreation.
The interdisciplinary approach described in this paper has been
elsewhere applied to research on environmental change and North
Atlantic fishing communities (e.g., Haedrich and Hamilton 2000;
Hamilton and Haedrich 1999; Hamilton and Butler 2001; Hamilton et al.
2000). Fishing communities, like ski areas, meet the four “ideal” criteria
discussed earlier for observational research on the human dimensions of

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 70
climatic change. A recurring theme from this fisheries research applies
to ski areas as well: environmental change creates winners and losers.
Some ski areas expanded while others closed down during the decades
of warming weather. Beyond the ski industry, other enterprises and
activities have differentially benefitted or been harmed by climate
change as well. We have concentrated here on the role that natural
capital (e.g., geography and climate) plays in this process. But other
types of capital recognized by social scientists — real capital
(investments), human capital (labor) and social capital (including
political and entrepreneurial factors) — prove critical too, in determining
how things turn out.
Disentangling the impacts of climatic variations from those of
other economic and social forces remains a central challenge for
observational research on the human dimensions of global change.
Where enough data exist, multivariate analysis could be of some help.
For example, it might be possible to use survival-analysis modeling to
estimate the effects of climatic, geographical, economic and structural
variables on individual ski areas. Climatic details such as the timing of
extreme weather events or of successive adverse seasons could then be
examined, together with economic trends in incomes and consumer
spending. This avenue appears promising for future research.
Acknowledgments
This research has been supported through a grant from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — Office of Global
Programs.

Volume 23 Number 10 2003 71
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