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Practical Guide to Regional Foresight in the UK
Abstract
A guide to regional foresight in Q&S format. Versions of this report were published for every EU15 country except Luxembourg in 2003, with translations of the original English text and additional some pages of local material prepared by national editors. All versions are online at: http://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/cgrf.htm ther reference is European Commission, EUR 20478, ISBN 92 894 4682 X
... Reger [10] proposed a 7-stage framework for foresight, which included determining information needs, choosing a research area, and selecting information resources, as well as methods and tools, data collection, screening, analysis, interpretation of information, preparation of decisions, evaluation, decision-making, taking an action, and implementation. Miles and Keenan [16] also provided a framework for foresight, which, unlike most models that followed a hierarchical trajectory, had a repeatable process and involved a step-by-step update of results and processes during replication. Pre-foresight, project agent engagement, creation of the future vision, taking an action, and refreshment were the main stages of the foresight project. ...
... B) Planning foresight: This step was also presented with different titles based on various models, such as those of Martin [14], Miles and Keenan [16], Saritas et al. [17], Santo et al. [18], and Reger [10]. This step dealt with foresight as a project, along with its various dimensions, including goals, horizons of vision, scope, focus, views, timing, budget, stakeholders, and the extents of participation identified and endorsed by the stakeholders. ...
Foresight has recently emerged as one of the most attractive and practical fields of study, while being used to draw up a preferable future and formulate appropriate strategies for achieving predetermined goals. The present research aimed at providing a framework for foresight with a primary focus on the role of a cognitive approach and its combination with the concept of fuzzy cognitive map in the environments of uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed framework consisted of the 3 phases: pre-foresight, foresight, and post-foresight. The main stage (foresight) focused on the role of imagination and intuition in drawing the future in the experts’ minds and depicting their perceptions above perceptions in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map influenced by variables related to the subject under study in order to determine a preferable future. The use of a Z-number concept and integrating it with fuzzy cognitive maps in the foresight-oriented decision-making space, which was mainly saturated with uncertainty and ambiguity, was one of the main strengths of the proposed framework in the current investigation. The present paper focused primarily on the evolution of expert’s knowledge with regard to the topic of foresight. The role of Z-number in various processes, from data collection to illustration, analysis, and aggregation of cognitive maps, was considered for gaining knowledge and understanding into the nature of future. Moreover, an ultimate objective was realized through identifying, aggregating, and selecting the variables from each expert’s perspective and then the relationship between each variable was determined in the main stage of foresight. Finally, the proposed framework was presented and explicated in the form of a case study, which revealed satisfactory results.
... Furthermore, it is repeatedly emphasised that anticipating future developments, producing forecasts or scenarios, is not an end in itself. Rather, such knowledge of the future should contribute to better decisions in the present because it helps to better understand the possible or plausible consequences of decisions (Miles and Keenan 2003;Urry 2016). This type of knowledge and the methods to generate it are well established in mobility planning and policy. ...
It is often assumed, at least implicitly, that responsible governance of automated vehicles (AVs) requires more knowledge about the future development of the innovation and its potential consequences. In this context, technology assessment (TA) studies often refer to the so-called Collingridge-dilemma. This paper argues that, at least in the German case, a lack of knowledge in the sense of the Collingridge-dilemma is not the central challenge for the governance of AVs. The argument is developed on the basis of different types of knowledge for TA recently introduced by Armin Grunwald. The paper shows that responsible governance of AVs requires more normative and hermeneutic knowledge to better understand the directionality of the current system. More important than focusing on the possible consequences of AVs is a better understanding of how to overcome existing obstacles to the development of a broadly shared vision with effective goals for the German mobility sector.
... It "creates value through providing access to critical resources ahead of competition" [50], p. 2). CF is an action-oriented, systematic, and participatory process of future-intelligence gathering [41], p. xi). For a proper conceptualization of CF, one should think "in terms of gerunds or verbs" (Weick, 1979 as cited in [2], p. 2) and go for continuous planning instead of plans. ...
The ever-increasing environmental complexity makes strategizing a difficult multidimensional task. In this paper, we conducted a corporate foresight case study in an SME in packaging industry in Iran. The case study offers a detailed procedure of implementing corporate foresight (CF) and how it can reshape traditional strategic planning. A multimethodological approach was taken in this case study. Once an intraorganizational team in studied company was formed, archival document analysis, PESTEL and weak signal analysis, importance/uncertainty matrix, cross-impact balanced (CIB) analysis, scenario construction, wind tunneling, robust decision-making, and premortem session were used to create foresight intelligence. This paper presents a detailed description of how CF can be linked to conventional strategizing and reshape it. Key variables, driving forces, critical uncertainties, and 4 plausible scenarios are presented. The case study illustrates that as alternative realities challenged the foresight teams ingrained presuppositions, they found the dialectic between “weight of history” and “pull of future” both revelatory and indigestible. The CF intervention illuminated the fragility of preexisting strategic objectives, the implicit optimism bias underlying them, and an overflowing-plate syndrome of formulating too many strategic objectives. Consequently, studied company decided to revisit their strategic objectives, prepare a contingency plan for worst-case scenarios, and begin developing a crisis-ready culture. The comprehensive case study demonstrates how CF can enhance and contradict traditional strategizing, presents a rich know-how of added value of scenarios, and provides some subtleties and complexities of CF interventions.
... There are two categories for determining the probability of the occurrence for a dynamic threat. The first includes expert methods (foresight [27,28], Delphi method [29], brainstorming [30], or knowledge panel), while the second includes methods resulting from statistics and the history of dynamic threats occurring in a given area. Identification of potential sources of information is necessary to develop a risk assessment of floods. ...
Flood risk assessment is used to estimate the expected consequences and probability of a flood. It leads to the strengthening of resilience through appropriate preparation for an event of a specific scale. The methodology described in this paper was developed by the authors for the purposes of flood risk assessment in Poland, introduced to and applied on an actual example. It is based on simple calculations and a comparison of the results with a template. All of the data required for calculation came from freely available sources. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of the flood risk assessment methodology in improving construction safety and identifying the factors that influence its implementation. The approach presented in this article is based on implementation of the parameters of floods, describing the characteristics of the exposed area and human vulnerability, among other factors, to the national risk assessment methodology, and then using it to determine the directions of activities aimed at reducing the risk of flooding. Simultaneously, assessment of these parameters might not be related directly to flood threats, but rather to the broader approach to risk assessment, including other threats. As a result of the application of the described methodology, it was estimated that the flood risk in the studied area is catastrophic, which requires immediate decisions of people responsible for safety.
This chapter delves into the insights gained from the South Africa Foresight Exercises for Science, Technology and Innovation (SAForSTI) 2030 to guide future implementations of science, technology, and innovation (STI) foresight exercises across Africa. It underscores the pivotal role of STI in addressing societal challenges and fostering inclusive and sustainable socio-economic development. The chapter is structured into three sections, first situating recommendations in global, continental, and domestic contexts, followed by drawing lessons from SAForSTI, and finally, presenting considerations for future foresight exercises in South Africa and the broader African continent. Drawing lessons from SAForSTI, the chapter underscores the immediate impact of the foresight exercise on the STI Decadal Plan, demonstrating the value of foresight in shaping national priorities. Foresight, characterised as a systematic, participatory, and future-intelligence-gathering process, empowers decision-makers to actively influence the unfolding future and construct narratives tailored to the context of developing countries.
This chapter provides a concise overview of the South Africa Foresight Exercise for Science, Technology, and Innovation (SAForSTI). The primary objective of this exercise was to explore the future landscape of science, technology, and innovation (STI), with a focus on leveraging STI to enhance the well-being of all South Africans by addressing socio-economic challenges inclusively and sustainably. The outcomes of SAForSTI have played a pivotal role in shaping the priorities outlined in the new 10-year plan for STI leading up to 2030. When determining the STI areas to be scrutinised and analysed through the foresight process, several factors were considered, including: (i) Established areas of STI functioning effectively with minimal expected change, (ii) Areas demonstrating high potential for growth, and (iii) Emerging STI areas within the South African national innovation system. SAForSTI employed diverse methodologies informed by both global best practices and local context, with the analysis phase benefiting from big data analytics. A key aspect of SAForSTI was extensive stakeholder engagement. Ultimately, SAForSTI identified seven STI domains, each with its associated priorities or thrusts, including the Circular Economy, High-tech Industrialisation, Nutrition Security, ICTs and Smart Systems, Health Innovation, Sustainable Energy, and Education for the Future.
These domains are intricately linked to South Africa’s prevailing challenges encompassing inequality, poverty, unemployment, food security, health, education, water, and climate, among others. Addressing these systemic societal challenges necessitates long-term planning and policy interventions spanning technological, economic, and social dimensions, transcending national boundaries. Concurrently, South Africa finds itself amidst an era of unparalleled technological advancements permeating various facets of human and planetary existence. This includes remarkable progress in information and communications technology (ICT), biotechnology, nanotechnology, the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, blockchain technology, and additive manufacturing, among others. Like other developing nations, South Africa is navigating ways to harness the opportunities presented by these technologies while also preparing to mitigate unintended negative consequences. A youthful population can serve as a catalyst and significant asset amidst the rapid acceleration of technological innovation and socio-technological transformations associated with emerging technologies.
This chapter draws insights from the final synthesis report of the South Africa Foresight Exercise for Science, Technology, and Innovation 2030 published by the National Advisory Council on Innovation, Department of Science and Innovation, Republic of South Africa (NACI, 2019, South Africa foresight exercise for science, technology and innovation 2030, synthesis report, National Advisory Council on Innovation, Department of Science and Innovation, Republic of South Africa. Retrieved June 3, 2024, from https://www.naci.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/South-African-Foresight-Exercise-For-Science-Technology-and-Innovation-2019.pdf).
The present study, with a Futures studies identifies the most important affecting factors and the extent and way of influencing these factors on each other and on the future status of sustainable tourism in Kerman. This research is based on new futurist methods which is carried out using a combanition of quantitative and qualitative modeld. Due to the nature of this research, structural analysis, MIC MAC and Delphi have been used. In this regard, after holding initial discussions with fifteen elite and tourism experts of Kerman as the statistical population of the study, 50variables were identified in the form of four general dimensions as initial variables. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross effects matrix in the MICMAC foresight software. The results show that what can be understood from the state of the dispersion page of the variables indicates the system instability, with most of the variables dispersed around the diagonal axis of the screen. Finally, due to the high direct and indirect impact, ten major factors are influential as key factors in the future of sustainable tourism development in Kerman. Among factors, the most influential factor in the development of sustainable tourism in Kerman is competitiveness, and the removal of travel barriers, the expansion of tourismrelated spaces, environmental degradation as a result of the over-construction of second homes, and participation and solidarity at a later stage is important.
Stabilność w ujęciu makroekonomicznym jest dobrem rzadko spotykanym, chociaż wielu o nim mówi, nierzadko zmieniając wskaźniki czy terminy podstawowe, żeby było można ową stabilność, realną czy też pozorną, wykazać. W literaturze przedmiotu i praktyce dominuje jednak koncepcja, że podatność na zagrożenia narasta w akomodacyjnych globalnie warunkach finansowych, zwłaszcza w odniesieniu do wahań zewnętrznych warunków finansowych, które oddziałują na krajowe cykle bessy i hossy1. Obecny problem stabilności makroekonomicznej dotyczy jednak wielu, o ile nie wszystkich, gospodarek, które, w ramach walki o wpływy i konkurencyjność w grze geoekonomicznej, doświadczają podwyższonej słabości finansowej, przy wzrastającym nadmiarowo zadłużeniu publicznym i prywatnym, a gwałtownie wzrastająca inflacja zmienia warunki gospodarowania, prawa własności czy status społeczny i finansowy wielu gospodarstw domowych, przedsiębiorstw czy państw.
Wielu uczestników życia gospodarczego zdaje się nie dostrzegać, że stabilności makroekonomicznej w ramach stabilizacji cen nie sposób osiągnąć w krótkim horyzoncie czasowym. Realny przedział czasowy odpowiedzi polityki pieniężnej to dwa, trzy lata, przy czym symetryczny cel inflacyjny określony na poziomie 2% stałby się w ogóle nieosiągalny, jeżeli ktoś uwierzyłby, że jedynie podwyżki stóp procentowych, bez zastosowanych łącznie wielu instrumentów polityki gospodarczej – doprowadzą do powrotu inflacji do celu inflacyjnego.
Biorąc powyższe pod uwagę, celem przedkładanego opracowania jest ponowna identyfikacja najważniejszych obszarów stabilności makroekonomicznej oraz określenie ich wpływu na równowagę gospodarczą, szczególnie w kontekście bieżących wyzwań spowodowanych pandemią Covid-19, dynamiką inflacji oraz wojną Rosji z Ukrainą, a w zasadzie wojną geoekonomiczną i geopolityczną skupioną na linii Stany Zjednoczone – Chiny.
The presented research identifies and assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of three selected overland rail routes of the Belt and Road Initiative. The three, running through Poland, are as follows: (1) Podlaskie province, (2) Terespol, and (3) Hrubieszów. Each of the selected rail routes represents a different variant of logistic, geopolitical, and technological conditioning characterizing particular rail routes of the BRI. The research aims to gain new knowledge and identify factors influencing the BRI rail routes in the COVID-19 era, using the developed methodology based on the modified STEEPVLL and SWOT analysis.
This study examines the recent evolution of Foresight as a well-recognized tool for long-term policy and strategy making and discusses the future directions the activity might take. The science mapping approach is used for the analysis. Drawing on big data, science mapping provides an evolutionary overview of scientific domains across time and helps to identify patterns showing the research agenda and directions of development of those domains. In the present study, we demonstrate the use of the science mapping approach with the case of the Foresight field. The results of our analysis confirm earlier academic studies on the evolution of Foresight; hence show the validity of the science mapping approach. Besides demonstrating the evolution of the field with the scientific publications in the last couple of decades, the study seeks scientific evidence for the next generations of Foresight to emerge towards the 2030 s.
This paper discusses recent trends in public-administration-led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the methods used. In countries where successive projects have been carried out, one can observe how the evolution in methods employed, aims to increase the impact and effectiveness of foresight. Organizing the discussion in terms of objectives departs from previous approaches in the literature which mostly distinguish between different foresight exercises according to the principal methodology used.