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Practical Guide to Regional Foresight in the UK
Abstract
A guide to regional foresight in Q&S format. Versions of this report were published for every EU15 country except Luxembourg in 2003, with translations of the original English text and additional some pages of local material prepared by national editors. All versions are online at: http://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/cgrf.htm ther reference is European Commission, EUR 20478, ISBN 92 894 4682 X
... Reger [10] proposed a 7-stage framework for foresight, which included determining information needs, choosing a research area, and selecting information resources, as well as methods and tools, data collection, screening, analysis, interpretation of information, preparation of decisions, evaluation, decision-making, taking an action, and implementation. Miles and Keenan [16] also provided a framework for foresight, which, unlike most models that followed a hierarchical trajectory, had a repeatable process and involved a step-by-step update of results and processes during replication. Pre-foresight, project agent engagement, creation of the future vision, taking an action, and refreshment were the main stages of the foresight project. ...
... B) Planning foresight: This step was also presented with different titles based on various models, such as those of Martin [14], Miles and Keenan [16], Saritas et al. [17], Santo et al. [18], and Reger [10]. This step dealt with foresight as a project, along with its various dimensions, including goals, horizons of vision, scope, focus, views, timing, budget, stakeholders, and the extents of participation identified and endorsed by the stakeholders. ...
Foresight has recently emerged as one of the most attractive and practical fields of study, while being used to draw up a preferable future and formulate appropriate strategies for achieving predetermined goals. The present research aimed at providing a framework for foresight with a primary focus on the role of a cognitive approach and its combination with the concept of fuzzy cognitive map in the environments of uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed framework consisted of the 3 phases: pre-foresight, foresight, and post-foresight. The main stage (foresight) focused on the role of imagination and intuition in drawing the future in the experts’ minds and depicting their perceptions above perceptions in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map influenced by variables related to the subject under study in order to determine a preferable future. The use of a Z-number concept and integrating it with fuzzy cognitive maps in the foresight-oriented decision-making space, which was mainly saturated with uncertainty and ambiguity, was one of the main strengths of the proposed framework in the current investigation. The present paper focused primarily on the evolution of expert’s knowledge with regard to the topic of foresight. The role of Z-number in various processes, from data collection to illustration, analysis, and aggregation of cognitive maps, was considered for gaining knowledge and understanding into the nature of future. Moreover, an ultimate objective was realized through identifying, aggregating, and selecting the variables from each expert’s perspective and then the relationship between each variable was determined in the main stage of foresight. Finally, the proposed framework was presented and explicated in the form of a case study, which revealed satisfactory results.
... As it is true for all types of foresight exercises, there is no single universal regional foresight methodology although certain reference approaches have been developed [22], [23] and best practices codified [24]. Roadmapping has been recognized as suitable for building strategic knowledge necessary for politicians, government institutions, and research centers to exploit the opportunities associated with nanotechnologies [25]. ...
... In the Polish context of a post-transition economy, roadmapping has not been used extensively in the foresight projects carried out so far. Evaluation study of foresight initiatives commissioned by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education identified 18 projects of a regional character (dealing either with the holistic development of a region or focusing on a specific aspect of region's socioeconomic life) [33], [24]. Out of them, only five applied roadmapping method [7]. ...
In the article, the authors describe their approach to creating regional nanotechnology development roadmaps. Original visualization and roadmaps for selected nanotechnologies are showcased. The creation of roadmaps was preceded by technology mapping and the selection of priority technologies, for which technology characteristics sheets were developed. Human resources (skills), financial resources, and tangible assets were a basis for the creation of the roadmaps specifying the development of priority nanotechnologies in the studied region (Podlaskie, Poland). The development of the technologies described in the roadmaps is stimulated by the R&D domain, which constitutes one of the roadmap layers. Potential technology application areas form the background for the “market” layer of the roadmaps. Segments related to the general development of a particular technology in time are additional elements enriching the roadmaps. All layers were presented in three-time perspectives. The conducted analysis served as a basis for the integration of the selected priority nanotechnologies into four nanotechnology development scenarios of the region. The obtained results contributed to the formulation of the Regional Nanotechnology Development Strategy. The research was conducted in a framework of the “Technological foresight ‘NT FOR Podlaskie 2020’ Regional strategy of nanotechnology development” project.
... As it is true for all types of foresight exercises, there is no single universal regional foresight methodology although certain reference approaches have been developed [22], [23] and best practices codified [24]. Roadmapping has been recognized as suitable for building strategic knowledge necessary for politicians, government institutions, and research centers to exploit the opportunities associated with nanotechnologies [25]. ...
... In the Polish context of a post-transition economy, roadmapping has not been used extensively in the foresight projects carried out so far. Evaluation study of foresight initiatives commissioned by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education identified 18 projects of a regional character (dealing either with the holistic development of a region or focusing on a specific aspect of region's socioeconomic life) [33], [24]. Out of them, only five applied roadmapping method [7]. ...
In the article, the authors describe their approach to creating regional nanotechnology development roadmaps. Original visualization and roadmaps for selected nanotechnologies are showcased. The creation of roadmaps was preceded by technology mapping and the selection of priority technologies, for which technology characteristics sheets were developed. Human resources (skills), financial resources, and tangible assets were a basis for the creation of the roadmaps specifying the development of priority nanotechnologies in the studied region (Podlaskie, Poland). The development of the technologies described in the roadmaps is stimulated by the R&D domain, which constitutes one of the roadmap layers. Potential technology application areas form the background for the “market” layer of the roadmaps. Segments related to the general development of a particular technology in time are additional elements enriching the roadmaps. All layers were presented in three-time perspectives. The conducted analysis served as a basis for the integration of the selected priority nanotechnologies into four nanotechnology development scenarios of the region. The obtained results contributed to the formulation of the Regional Nanotechnology Development Strategy. The research was conducted in a framework of the “Technological foresight ‘NT FOR Podlaskie 2020’ Regional strategy of nanotechnology development” project.
... There are two categories for determining the probability of the occurrence for a dynamic threat. The first includes expert methods (foresight [27,28], Delphi method [29], brainstorming [30], or knowledge panel), while the second includes methods resulting from statistics and the history of dynamic threats occurring in a given area. Identification of potential sources of information is necessary to develop a risk assessment of floods. ...
Flood risk assessment is used to estimate the expected consequences and probability of a flood. It leads to the strengthening of resilience through appropriate preparation for an event of a specific scale. The methodology described in this paper was developed by the authors for the purposes of flood risk assessment in Poland, introduced to and applied on an actual example. It is based on simple calculations and a comparison of the results with a template. All of the data required for calculation came from freely available sources. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of the flood risk assessment methodology in improving construction safety and identifying the factors that influence its implementation. The approach presented in this article is based on implementation of the parameters of floods, describing the characteristics of the exposed area and human vulnerability, among other factors, to the national risk assessment methodology, and then using it to determine the directions of activities aimed at reducing the risk of flooding. Simultaneously, assessment of these parameters might not be related directly to flood threats, but rather to the broader approach to risk assessment, including other threats. As a result of the application of the described methodology, it was estimated that the flood risk in the studied area is catastrophic, which requires immediate decisions of people responsible for safety.
... Futures studies is an important tool in the development and management of futureoriented innovative systems that is based on an extensive body of consistent and future-oriented research. Such studies are known as the 'practical guide to regional futures studies of the European Union' in the regional futures studies of Finland (Kaivo-oja et al., 2002), UK (Miles, 2002), Northern European countries (Eerola & Jørgensen, 2002), and many other countries. ...
The current study aimed at identifying the problems and challenges facing the resilience of landslide areas using the strategic approach of futures studies (futurology) and its scenarios. Methodologically, this study is novel as it applied the mixed-method (qualitative-quantitative) analysis based on the futures studies approach to explore the efficient resilience scenarios of human settlements against landslide risks in the Kurdistan province, Iran. This study is original and innovative in terms of thematic aspects as it attempted to provide a new and practical approach to identify the degree of resilience and challenges in the framework of strategic planning in the short, medium, and long term. The findings of the qualitative phase showed that the most efficient scenario for improving the resilience of human settlements is the preparation scenario. The results of the quantitative phase revealed that the identified propellants for this scenario included improving organizational integrity and crisis management, organizational communication, increasing local institutions and community participation, improving insurance coverage, increasing the education and skills of people against landslide risks, zoning and characterizing high-risk areas, balanced distribution of services at the regional level, and increasing convenient access to transport networks during the crisis. Considering that crisis management before the occurrence of risk is in an unsuitable situation in Iran, therefore, identifying the bottlenecks and challenges facing crisis management using futures studies approach can be an important step to provide effective programs to solve the problems and predict the impacts of the natural hazards.
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... While FF is focused on external events, it raises questions for students about personal development and alignment with their world to inform their decision making (Miles and Keenan, 2003) and help them to become more future-ready. We encouraged participants to visualise and discuss with their peers the different options the future might hold, from which they could then evaluate the paths (with benefits and drawbacks) that could be taken (Hines and Gold, 2014). ...
Integrating foresight into corporations has proved to be challenging. This account of practice reports on the introduction of futures and foresight (FF) teaching content into an executive Masters programme. The FF contentwas further linked to and provided a background for action learning sets. The purpose was to identify how introducing distant time horizons would help participants to adapt and change their perspectives in problem solving and professional development. The report describes how FF was incorporated across the programme and used to develop insightful conversations in the action learning sets. Citing two case examples, the authors reflect on how participants responded to these new elements and offer insights into the value of introducing FF as an interdisciplinary element in a programme.
... Foresight is "a systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-tolong-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions…" (Miles and Keenan, 2002) More recently, in a practical guide produced for the European Commission, Keenan and Popper (2007) define Foresight as an open and collective process of purposeful, futureoriented exploration, involving deliberation between heterogeneous actors in science and technology arenas, with a view to formulating shared visions and strategies that take better account of future opportunities and threats. The guide also presents six basic principles of Foresight (see Table 2.1). ...
The presented research identifies and assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of three selected overland rail routes of the Belt and Road Initiative. The three, running through Poland, are as follows: (1) Podlaskie province, (2) Terespol, and (3) Hrubieszów. Each of the selected rail routes represents a different variant of logistic, geopolitical, and technological conditioning characterizing particular rail routes of the BRI. The research aims to gain new knowledge and identify factors influencing the BRI rail routes in the COVID-19 era, using the developed methodology based on the modified STEEPVLL and SWOT analysis.
This study examines the recent evolution of Foresight as a well-recognized tool for long-term policy and strategy making and discusses the future directions the activity might take. The science mapping approach is used for the analysis. Drawing on big data, science mapping provides an evolutionary overview of scientific domains across time and helps to identify patterns showing the research agenda and directions of development of those domains. In the present study, we demonstrate the use of the science mapping approach with the case of the Foresight field. The results of our analysis confirm earlier academic studies on the evolution of Foresight; hence show the validity of the science mapping approach. Besides demonstrating the evolution of the field with the scientific publications in the last couple of decades, the study seeks scientific evidence for the next generations of Foresight to emerge towards the 2030 s.
Regional foresight is one of the regional planning approaches that increase the ability to deal with uncertainty and changes. This study aims to provide an overview of regional foresight studies and domain map to evaluate their merits and defects and direct future studies in this field. For this purpose, 111 papers related to regional foresight were identified at the “Web of Science” in the period 2000 to 2019 and used as the basis for further analysis. These papers have been reviewed in various aspects. In addition, the domain map of regional foresight and its intellectual bases was drawn based on co-citation analysis of these papers and their 4194 references. The domain map includes five main clusters of research areas or intellectual bases for regional foresight: normative forecasting, participation, foresight in policy and strategy, innovation systems, and multi-level governance. Finally, the merits and defects of regional foresight studies are evaluated based on research results and some suggestions are provided for future studies.
This paper discusses recent trends in public-administration-led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the methods used. In countries where successive projects have been carried out, one can observe how the evolution in methods employed, aims to increase the impact and effectiveness of foresight. Organizing the discussion in terms of objectives departs from previous approaches in the literature which mostly distinguish between different foresight exercises according to the principal methodology used.