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Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Its Relation To Market Power: Reinterpretation Of The Degree Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Abstract
We propose a different perspective for interpretation of exchange rate pass-through: a relatively lower (higher) degree of pass-through implies a competitive (less competitive) market. Using three different wheat exporting countries, the United States, Canada, and Australia, and two importing countries, Japan and Korea, we are not likely to reject our hypothesis. In the competitive market (Japan), the exporting countries determine their prices based on changes in the competing country's price, and as a result, there is a close-to-zero degree of exchange rate pass-through. However, a lower degree of price competition and a significantly higher degree of exchange rate pass-through are found in a less competitive market (Korea).
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The competitive structure of U.S. agricultural exports is examined using a model of exporter behavior based on pricing decisions
across destination markets. Market power is revealed in the adjustment patterns of export prices in response to exchange rate
movements. The results reject the hypothesis that the export pricing decisions by U.S. firms are consistent with price discrimination
across destination markets for cotton, corn, and soybeans. The strongest evidence against the competitive market structure
is obtained for international trade in wheat, where results indicate that the two largest importers (Soviet Union and PRC)
may exert market power to obtain lower prices.
Using a Bertrand differentiated products model we show that pass-through should be high for exporters based in a country with a very large share of total destination market sales. For source countries with small and intermediate market shares, the relationship is potentially nonlinear and sensitive to assumptions about demand and firm interactions. The model is estimated using a panel data set of automobile exports from four source countries to 12 destination markets over the period 1970–1988. The relationship between pass-through and market share is significantly nonlinear: pass-through is lowest when the source country's market share is around 40 percent and highest when market share approaches 100 percent.
We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice depends on the characteristics of both the currency and the country. We use unique quarterly panel data of Norwegian imports from OECD countries for the 1996-2006 period. One of the key findings is that the eurozone countries in trade with Norway have substantially increased their share of home currency invoicing after the introduction of the euro. In addition, the euro as a vehicle currency has overtaken the role of the US dollar in Norwegian imports. The econometric analysis shows a significant effect of euro introduction above and beyond the determinants of currency invoicing (i.e., inflation rate, inflation volatility, foreign exchange market size, and product composition). However, the rise in producer currency invoicing by eurozone countries is primarily caused by a drop in inflation volatility.
Korea relies more than 70 percent of food supply on a limited number of exporting counties. If the suppliers possess market power, the food security matters. This study tested whether the major exporting countries of corn and wheat have power of determining market prices and enjoy oligopolistic profit in Korea. The empirical results indicate that Korea shows a high degree of import loyalty toward U.S. products. It is evident that the U.S. and Australia have market power in the wheat market, while no distinct power is detected in the corn market. The result for the corn market seems to reflect the severe price competition between the two major exporters, the U.S. and China. It is also shown that the launch of the WTO does not significantly change the structure of market power in the markets considered.
We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice depends on the characteristics of both the currency and the country. We use unique quarterly panel data of Norwegian imports from OECD countries for the 1996-2006 period. One of the key findings is that the eurozone countries in trade with Norway have substantially increased their share of home currency invoicing after the introduction of the euro. In addition, the euro as a vehicle currency has overtaken the role of the US dollar in Norwegian imports. The econometric analysis shows a significant effect of euro introduction above and beyond the determinants of currency invoicing (i.e., inflation rate, inflation volatility, foreign exchange market size, and product composition). However, the rise in producer currency invoicing by eurozone countries is primarily caused by a drop in inflation volatility.
International economists typically assume that temporary real exchange rate shocks can have only temporary real effects -and no effect at all on the underlying structure of the economy. This paper shows that even in a simple "off-the-shelf" industrial organization model, this assumption is unfounded; if market-entry costs are sunk, exchange rate shocks can alter domestic market structure and thereby have lasting real effects. In other words, a sufficiently large exchange rate shock can cause hysteresis in import prices and quantities. This simple idea has strong implications for exchange rate theory (Baldwin and Krugman 1986 shows this), for trade policy (Dixit 1987a discusses this), and for the estimation of trade equations as the present paper shows. To show that the theoretical point is not just empirically empty theorizing, we present evidence which suggests that the recent dollar overvaluation is an example of a hysteresis-inducing shock. To this end we demonstrate that the pass-through relationship shifted in a manner that 13 consistent with the nature and timing of the market structure changes predicted by the model. In particular, we find evidence that the structural break occurred during the rising dollar phase rather than In 1985 as is commonly asserted. A direct test of the model is not performed due to data limitations.
The authors investigate the pass-through from exchange rates to import prices when firms' future demands depend on their current market shares. They show that profit-maximizing foreign firms may either raise or lower their dollar export prices when the dollar appreciates temporarily (i.e., the pass-through may be perverse) and that current import prices may be more sensitive to expected future exchange rates than to current exchange rates. They present evidence that suggests the behavior of expected future exchange rates may provide a clue to the puzzling recent behavior of U.S. import prices. Copyright 1989 by American Economic Association.
A variable span smoother based on local linear fits is described. Local cross- validation is used to estimate the optimal span as a function of abscissa value. Com- putationally efficient algorithms making use of updating formulas are presented.
The principle of profit maximization is used to derive an equilibrium condition for noncompetitive markets and to provide explicit parametric tests for market power exerted in both domestic and foreign markets by a government trade agency. Our study goes beyond previous work by considering simultaneous exertion of market power in both domestic and foreign markets and by jointly estimating market power parameters with cost and demand parameters. These innovations allow nested tests of market power as opposed to prevailing nonnested tests based on simulation models or conditional tests based on prior estimates of demand and cost parameters. Japan is found to exert a high degree of monopsony power in the world wheat market and no monopoly power in the domestic market.
The paper develops some new tests for structural hypotheses in the framework of a multivariate error correction model with Gaussian errors. The tests are constructed by an analysis of the likelihood function and motivated by an empirical investigation of the PPP relation and the UIP relation for the United Kingdom.Three types of tests are discussed. First we consider the same linear restrictions on all cointegration relations, then we consider the hypothesis that certain relations are assumed to be cointegrating, and finally we formulate a general hypothesis that contains the previous ones. This hypothesis can be expressed by the condition that some of the cointegrating relations are subject to given linear restrictions, while others are unconstrained.
This paper examines the effect of tariffs and exchange rates on U.S. prices of Japanese cars, trucks and motorcycles. In particular, we test whether the long-run pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates are identical: the symmetry hypothesis. We find that this hypothesis is easily accepted in our sample. We also find that the pass-through relation varies across products, ranging from about 0.6 for trucks to unity for motorcycles. These coefficients have very different implications for trade policy. We explain the results based on demand, cost and institutional conditions in each industry.
This paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the determination of domestic and export prices by a monopolistic competitive firm. The model stresses the role of exchange rate uncertainty and expectations. The most important result of the analysis is that the stochastic properties of deviations from the ‘law of one price’ are crucially affected by the currency of denomination of export prices. Using data on domestic and dollar export prices of Japanese goods, I find that deviations from the ‘law of one price’ are due to exchange rate surprises, but also to price staggering and ex ante price discrimination.
This paper explicitly takes into account the dynamic oligopolistic rivalry among source producers to evaluate the degree of exchange-rate pass-through. Using recent time-series techniques for the case of imported automobiles in Switzerland, the results show that prices are strategic complements and that the degree of pass-through is lower in the long run than in the short run. This is due to the fact that, although some rivals match long-term price changes, others do not, inducing the producer who faces a change in exchange rate to absorb a greater proportion of the variation. The degrees of pass-through are also low with respect to other studies which do not endogenize pricing behavior.
This paper develops an adjustment cost model of pricing-to-market. The model consists of a monopolist who supplies an identical, nondurable good to two foreign markets. It is shown that the degree of pricing-to-market increases with the relative importance of the transitory component in exchange rates. Customs data from 1978 through 1987 on U.S. and Canadian imports of seven German commodities are used to estimate the model's parameters and test its over-identifying restrictions.
Exchange rate pass-through is the phenomenon whereby changes in the value of foreign exchange are reflected in changes in import prices. This paper presents a partial equilibrium model in which firms are price setters who anticipate exchange rate changes. In equilibrium, firms' strategies incorporate expectations about the exchange rate consistently and are best responses to the strategies of all others in the world market. It is shown that exchange rate changes give rise to import price changes, but the degree of exchange rate pass-through depends upon domestic and foreign market structures and the exchange rate regime. In general, exchange rate pass-through is higher if the home market is monopolistic or if the foreign market is competitive.
In this paper we discuss the problem of identification in a model with cointegration. It is pointed out that there is an identification problem for both long-run parameters and short-run parameters. The identification of the equations and the cointegrating relations is achieved by linear restrictions on the parameters and a criterion for a statistical model to be identifying is given. We also define empirical identification of an estimated structure. A switching algorithm for calculating the restricted parameters is proposed. The concepts are illustrated with an empirical analysis of the ISLM model using Australian monetary data.
This study divides the U.S. economy into the agricultural and industrial sectors and compares the degree of involvement of exchange rates in each sector without specifying the rigid assumption of either exogeneity or endogeneity of exchange rates. Both short- and long-run impacts of shocks in the exchange rate are found to be significant. However, the effect of an exchange rate shock on the agricultural sector is larger than that on the industrial sector. This study examines a fundamental question about the role of the exchange rate in the two sectors. The exchange rate is exogenous in the agricultural sector, while being endogenous in the industrial sector.
The objective of this article is to measure the market power of U.S. grain exporters in the Asian countries. This study revisits the issue of the market power with the Goldberg and Knetter (1999) model, addressing an issue about using nominal exchange rate as a cost shifter. This study proposes an adjusted nominal exchange rate deflated by inflation rates of exporting countries and exchange rate risk as another possible risk shifter. The results of the preliminary estimation show that using the adjusted exchange rate provides better results. The results also show that U.S. wheat exporters have market power in Philippine, Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore, while no market power in Indonesia and Japan. Australia plays a significant role in constraining the market power of U.S. wheat exporters in the Asian market, suggesting that a proper economic model in the Asian country might be U.S.-Australia duopoly model.
This study investigates the empirical relationships between macroeconomic instability, capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963-1999. We use recent time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, to analyze empirical relationships between the variables of interest. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing macroeconomic instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected the capital formation and hence growth. Furthermore, chronic macroeconomic instability seems to become a serious impediment to the public investment, especially its infrastructural component, and shattered or, even reversed the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run. Therefore, Turkish experience has shown that macroeconomic instability not only hinders economic growth but it could also reverse the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run.
In this paper we investigate the extent to which a number of key parity conditions hold within and between the USA and Japan. Previous research has demonstrated that the nonstationarity of the "simple" parity conditions was related to the nonstationarity of the real exchange rate, reflecting the very slow adjustment to fundamental real exchange rates. The need to finance the resulting trade deficits seemed to have caused similar nonstationary movements in the long-term bond differential. Support for this proposition is also given in this paper. Furthermore, our results point to a reversal of the linkages partly in the term structure from the long to the short end of the market, partly in the Fisher parities from the nominal interest rate to inflation rate. These results might be important for the conduct of monetary policy which works on the economy through short-term interest rates.
Firms differ in the extent to which they "pass through" changes in exchange rates into foreign currency prices and in their "exposure" to exchange rates - the responsiveness of their profits to changes in exchange rates. Because pricing affects profitability, a firm's pass-through and exposure should be related. This paper develops models of exporting firms, under imperfect competition to study these related phenomena. From these models we derive the optimal pass-through decisions and the resulting exchange rate exposure. The models are estimated on eight Japanese export industries using both the price data pass-through and financial data for exposure.
This study investigates the exchange rate pass-through for Australian imports of manufactures. Pass-through elasticities are estimated for total manufactures and forty product categories by applying an econometric procedure which avoids the pitfalls in previous studies to a carefully assembled data set. The determinants of pass-through are analyzed by relating the pass-through elasticities to variables representing foreign control, nontariff barriers, product characteristics, and market structure. The author finds that pass-through is incomplete for most products, with significant variation across products. Unlike previous studies, he finds that most of the variation in pass-through is explained by the presence of multinational corporations and nontariff barriers. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.
[This paper responds to “Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for International Financial Stability: A Proposal,” by Ronald I. McKinnon, in this same issue.] For over ten years, Ronald McKinnon has advocated a new monetary system centered on fixed exchange rates between the Japanese yen, the German mark, and the U.S. dollar. His proposal has fallen on fertile soil because the dramatic volatility in exchange rates makes the financial press and the business community grasp for ready answers. McKinnon's scheme seems to solve the problem of currency instability and to judge from his presentation there are only merits and not one shortcoming. In fact, however, there is little theoretical or empirical basis for his standard. To support this criticism, I will first summarize several of McKinnon's key propositions and prescriptions and then review these in a critical spirit.
Measuring the Market Power of the U.S. Wheat Exporters in Asian Countries: An Issue about Adjustment of Nominal Exchange Rate When Using as a Cost Shifter
- G Cho
- H Jin
- W Koo
Cho, G., H. Jin, and W. Koo. "Measuring the Market Power of the U.S. Wheat Exporters in
Asian Countries: An Issue about Adjustment of Nominal Exchange Rate When Using as
a Cost Shifter.". American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, July 2831, 2002.