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0APPLIED
DEMOGRAPHY:
ITS
CURRENT SCOPE
AND
FUTURE DIRECTION
IN
THE
UNITED
STATES
0Peter A.
Morrison
October
1988
DTIC
%ELECTE
QV.O8
1IJ
P-7496
90
10
2G
001
The
RAND
Corporation
Papers
are issued
by
The
RAND
Corporation
as
a
service
to
its
profes-
sional
staff. Their
purpose
is
to
facilitate
the
exchange
of
ideas
among
those
who
share
the
author's
research
interests;
Papers
are
not
reports
prepared
in
fulfillment of
RAND's
contracts
or
grants.
Views
expressed
in
a
Paper are
the author's
own
and
are
not
necessarily
shared
by
RAND
or
its
research sponsors.
The
RAND
Corporation,
1700
Main
Street,
P.O.
Box
2138,
Santa
Monica,
CA
90406-2138
-
iii
-
SUMMARY
Applied demography
comprises
a
diverse
set
of
applications
that
draw
on
demographers'
specialized knowledge
and technical skills. Those
applications
often
stem
from
demographers'
familiarity
with
census data
and
their
facility
in
adapting
it
to
business
and
public
sector
concerns.
This
paper
offers
an
overview
of
the field's
current scope,
evolution,
and
prospective
future
course.
Its
major points
are:
1.
Applied demography
is
driven
by problems;
it is
not
a
theory-
directed
body
of
knowledge.
Its
evolution
therefore
mirrors
contemporary
issues
to
which
demographic
perspectives
and
data
apply.
2.
Professionally,
applied demographers
are
diversely
situated
but
linked
through
a
national
network
of
personal
contacts.
Many
work
for
state
and
regional
governmental
agencies;
some
are
employed
within
the
commercial
data
industry;
a
few
operate
as
entrepreneurs.
Most
are
occasional practitioners responding
to
various
commercial, legislative,
and judicial
concerns
demanding
the
use
of
demographic
information.
3.
Factors
underlying
its
growth
include
newly
available
data
for
matching
information
on
individual
consumers and
heightened
competitive pressures
within
recently deregulated
U.S.
markets.
The underlying
factors
fostering
the
recent
growth
of
applied
demography
also
foreshadow
its
future
development.
The
technology
for
storing,
retrieving,
and
matching
data
has
introduced
potential
applications
that
only
a
few
years
ago
were
entirely
beyond
the
realm
of
possibility.
Expanded
automated registry of
microdata
on
individuals
is
affording
unprecedented
detail
for
targeting
consumers
based
on their
own
personal characteristics
rather
than
those
of the
neighborhoods
they
inhabit.
-1-
APPLIED
DEMOGRAPHY:
ITS
CURRENT
SCOPE
AND
FUTURE
DIRECTION
IN
THE UNITED
STATES
1
by
Peter
A.
Morrison
Population
Research
Center
The
RAND
Corporation
Santa
Monica, CA
90406,
U.S.A.
I. INTRODUCTION
Not
many
years
ago,
applied
demography
was
little
more
than
a
collection
of
activities
on
the
periphery
of
academic research.
Now
these activities
are
coalescing
into
a
recognizable
field
of endeavor
as
demographers apply their
specialized
knowledge
and
technical
skills
to
a
widening
arena
of
problems.
As
of
1988,
fully
one-fourth
of the
Population
Associatio
erica's
membership
cite
applied
demography
asone'ff-fheir
specialties
(Stephen,
1988).
C..
What
does this field
now
encompass,
how
has
it
evolved, and
where
is it
headed?
What distinctive
contributions
are
applied
demographers
making?
I
shall
offer
an
overview
of
how
demographic
analysis
is
being
applied
in
the
public
sector
and
especially
the
business
world.
My
emphasis will be on
(1)
the
scope
of
applications,
(2)
the
structures
that
are
emerging,
and
(3)
future
directions
of
growth over
the
next
several years.
Major
points
are:
1.
Applied demography
is
driven
by
problems;
it is
not
a
theory-
directed body
of
knowledge.
Its
evolution
therefore mirrors
contemporary
issues
to
which
demographic perspectives
and
data
V
apply.
.....
- - ,or
'Keynote
address
at
the
Conference
on
Local
Area Demography
in
E
Business
and
Government,
organized by
the
British Society
for
Population
0
Studies and
the
Institute
of
British
Geographers
with
support
by
CACI
Market Analysis.
The
conference
was
held
at
the
University
of
Nottingham, England, September
12-14,
1988.
D1strlbutloV
DTIC
Avallabllty
Con.
*,~~ai
l
aV
Cw
INSPOt
Dis
*oul
-2-
2.
Professionally,
applied demographers
are
diversely
situated
but
linked
through
a
national
network
of
personal
contacts.
Many
work
for
state
and
regional governmental
agencies;
some
are
employed
within
the
commercial
data
industry;
a
few
operate
as
entrepreneurs. Most
are
occasional practitioners
responding
to
__-as
fcommercial,
legislative,
and
judicial
concerns
14
demanding
the
use
of
demographic
information.
3.
Factors
underlying
its
growth
include
newly
available
data
for
matching
information on
individual consumers and
heightened
competitive pressures
within
recently
deregulated
U.S. markets.
The
widening
range
of problems
that
now
command
the
attention
of
demographers
(plus
others
applying
their methods)
testify
to
the field's
expanding
scope.
To
provide
some
indication of
that
scope,
I
shall
briefly
review some
representative
applications
that
are giving
further
definition
to
this field.
II.
SCOPE
OF
APPLICATIONS
STATE/LOCAL
APPLICATIONS
The
concerns
of
state
and
local
governments
define
one
continuing
area
within
this
field.
The
long
interval
between
decennial
U.S.
censuses
generates
a
continuing need
for
"official"
estimates
of
each
local
jurisdiction's current
population, which
figure
in
various
formulas
for
transferring
resources
from
higher
levels
of
government
to
lower
ones.
Such estimates are one basis on
which
jurisdictions
compete
for
various
types
ot
resources.
Funding
formulas
for
state
contributions
to
maintain
county
health
services,
for
example,
are
tied
to
population.
Federal
revenue
sharing
(until
its
recent
demise)
tied
the
transfer
of
federal
tax
dollars
directly
to
each
local
jurisdiction's
population.
(One
spinoff
of
revenue
sharing
was
the
Bureau
of
the
Census's development
of
a
new
method
for
estimating
population
at
this
finer
geographic
scale.)
The
"fair
share"
of
government-subsidized
housing
that
localities
are
obliged
to
accept
also
may
be tied
to
official
estimates
of
local
population.
-3-
Local
governments
and authorities
need
current
population
ettimates
and forecasts
for
many
other
purposes:
to
calculate vital Tates
and
various
indicators of
service
delivery, public health, accessibility
to
hospitals
and
other health
facilities;
to
forecast future
demands
(e.g.,
school
enrollments); and
to
certify
compliance
with particular
legal
mandates
(e.g..,
for
demographically
representative trial juries).
Certain
structures
have evolved
over
the
years
to
address
these
needs.
Usually,
a
state
agency prepares
the
"'official"
set
of estimates
and forecasts
for
localities,
using
methods approved
by
and
coordinated,
through
the
Federal-State Cooperative Program
of
the
U.S.
Bureau
of the
Census.
Typically,
these
estimates
and
projections
extend
down
to the
county
level,
and
sometimes
to
individual
cities.
Below
the county
level,
the
task usually gravitates
to
regional
planning
authorities
and
county
health
departments.
These
agencies
prepare
postcensal
estimates
(and
sometimes
forecasts)
for
traffic
analysis
areas,
health
planning
areas,
census
tracts,
and
other-neighborhood-level geographic
units.
Whatever
the
agency, someone
within
it
typically
fills
the "applied
demographer"
role.
This
may
be
someone
trained
at
a
recognized
academic
population
center,
but
more
often
it
is
someone
who
has
learned on
the
job.
Small-area forecasting
is
a
partly
commercial
enterprise,
conducted
by
for-profit
and
nonprofit organizations.
Some
organizations (e.g.,
the
National Planning
Association)
concentrate
on
regional economic
forecasting (using
proprietary econometric
models);
the future
populations
such
forecasts imply
for
multicounty
regions are
more
a
byproduct. Below
the
county
level
(and
especially
for
census tracts),
the
commercial
data industry
is
virtually
alone
in
forecasting
demographic
variables. Various
firms
have
in-house
applied
demographers
who
devise
forecasting
methodology,
audit the
input
data
that
are
used,
and
develop innovative ways
to
package
small-area
data
to
meet
various
client needs.
-4-
BUSINESS
APPLICATIONS
The
types
of business
concerns
now
commanding
the
attention
of
applied demographers
are
exceedingly
varied. Marketing
and
retailing
concerns
(probably
the
dominant
type)
involve linking
products
and
services
to
consumers
who
have
particular
wants
and
needs.
These
needs,
of
course,
are
diversifying
as
households
and lifestyles
diversify.
Corporate human resource
concerns define
a
somewhat newer area
of
activity,
prompted by
growing
business
interest
in
the
changing
structure
and
makeup of
the
work
force, and
the
emergence
of
new
"family-
workplace"
concerns.
Framing
strategic
business decisions
with
reference to
future
demographic
contexts constitutes
a
third
developing
area
of
application.
In
all
three
types
of
business applications,
applied demographers make themselves useful
in
various ways
that,
more
often
than
not,
stretch
beyond
the
boundaries
of
demographic
analysis
per
se.
Business
applications
of
demography
lack
the kinds
of
structures
that
have evolved
with
state
and
local
applications.
The Population
Association
of
America
has
a
Committee
on
Business
Demography, which
issues
a
periodic
newsletter
(Applied
Demography)
in
conjunction
with
PAA's
Committee
on
State
and
Local
Demography.
Books
and
monographs
on
the subject
of
business
demography
are
beginning
to
appear
(see
Pol,
1987).
A
clearer structure
may
emerge
if
applied
demography
curricula
are
introduced
in
business
school settings
(which
a
few
institutions
have under
consideration).
Marketing
and
Retailing
Demographic
information
and analysis
have become
essential
to
identifying, locating,
and
understanding
the
diverse
consumer groups
that
form
markets
for
goods
and
services
(Merrick
and
Tordella,
1988).
The
commercial data industry
furnishes
information
(and the
technology
for
accessing
it)
but
not
necessarily
the
analytic depth
some
marketers
may need.
That
need
has
created
a
niche
for
analysts
who
know
how
to
use
demographic
data
to
link
products
and
services
to
consumer
needs.
-5-
Part
of
what
fosters
"the
involvement of
demographers
here
is
their
technical familiarity
with
census
data
and definitions.
They
know
where
to
access
the
data
and
what
the numbers
mean.
Indeed,
any data-oriented
individual
(whether
trained
in
demography, marketing,
or
some
other
field)
who
possesses
a
solid command
of
census
data can
find
a
useful
niche
as
an
applied
demographer.
The
analytically-more sophisticated
applied
demographers
not
only
track
population
shifts,
they
also
provide
marketers
with
insights
into
how
those
shifts
may
shape
consumer
choice.
For example:
"
Although
fertility
is
low,
delayed
childbearing
may
strengthen
the
sale
of
maternity
fashions,
because
so
many
mature
mothers-
to-be
are
employed
and
want
to
dress
well
on
the
job.
*
Demographic
shifts
have diversified
consumer markets.
With
the
predominance
of
two-income
couples,
it is
increasingly
important
to
distinguish
segments
that
are
primarily
"time-
sensitive"
from
the
traditionally
"price-sensitive"
segments.
*
As
demographic
shifts
orient most
people
toward
convenience,
consumers
seek
to
purchase
what they
need quickly,
at
hours
of
their
own
choosing,
and
preferably
all
in
one
store.
Growth
in
one-stop
shopping,
direct
marketing,
and
home-delivered
food
reflects
these developments.
Human
Resource
Planning
U.S.
companies
now
recognize
that
the
demographics
of
their
work
forces
have
important long-term implications
for
benefits,
productivity,
and
business
profitability.
This
recognition
is
spurring
more
general
interest
in
how
demographic
changes
are
affecting
the
workplace.
Contraction
and
expansion
in
the
number
of
workers
at
different
age
ranges
has
begun
to
affect
labor
markets. At
the
entry
level,
spot
shortages
are
appearing
as
the
size
of
entering
cohorts shrinks.
Simultaneously,
companies
that
once
curtailed
new
hiring now
find they
have disproportionate
numbers
of
employees
entering
the
middle
and
later
stages
of
their careers.
As
too
many
employees
compete
for
too
few
mid-
-6-
level
positions, corporations
are
challenged to retain
the
best of
these
more experienced workers
as
career
ladders
grow congested.
The
developing concern
with
family-workplace
issues
further
illustrates the
broadening
applicability of
the
demographic
perspective.
With
the influx
of
mothers
into
the
work
force
and changes
in
family
structure
and
composition, dependent-care
needs
are
changing.
These
changes
are
demanding
flexibility
in
daily
work
schedules
and
other
forms
of employer responsiveness
(Kamerman
and
Kahn,
1987).
Until quite
recently,
business
was
largely
oblivious
to
the
rapidly
changing demographic
context and
the
ensuing
conflicts
between
family
and
workplace
obligations.
By
helping
their
employees
balance
work
and
family
responsibilities,
a
company
can
advance
its
own
interests, reduce
absenteeism, strengthen
recruitment,
and
retain
valued
employees.
That
recognition
is
fostering
interest
in
"responsive
workplace"
policies
and
a
need
for
more
detail
on
a
company's
own
work
force:
how
many
employees
face
what kinds
of
family
obligations,
and
how
they
go
about
meeting
them.
These developments will
further
the
application
of
demographic
analysis, advice,
and forecasts
to
human resource
issues.
Strategic
Business
Issues
Whether
to
enter
or avoid
a
particular
market,
where
to site
a
shopping
mall,
or
how
to
accommodate
the
aging of
a
corporation's
work
force
are
all
strategic decisions
that focus
attention
on
the long
term.
Here,
applied
demographers
can
play
several
potential
roles,
some still
at
an
early
stage
of
emergence.
First,
the
applied
demographer
can act
as
a
catalyst,
opening
up
thought
processes
within
an
organization
and
sparking
new
insights
and
ideas.
Demographers
excel
at
calling attention
to
long-range
shifts,
and
they introduce
a
useful
frame of
reference
for
comprehending them.
Describing
trends
with
reference
to
cohort
changes--in
women's
labor
force
participation,
in
older workers'
propensity
to
retire
or
to
work
part-time,
in
the
comparative health
and
vigor of
the
aged--provokes
thought
and
generates
discussion
between
a
corporation's
own
analysts
and
its
senior
managers.
-7-
In
other
instances, the
applied
demographer
can
give specific
empirical
meaning
to
various
facets
of
an
overall business
strategy.
For
someone seeking
to
target certain
types
of
markets-,
demographers
can
identify
which
census
measures
to use.
In
yet
another
role, the
applied
demographer
may
provide
an
analytic
framework
for
decisionmaking--that
is,
systematize
the
various
factors
that
must
be
weighed
to
reach
a
decision.
III.
APPLYING
DEMOGRAPHIC
ANALYSIS
TO
STORE
SITE
SELECTION
A
case
study
will illustrate
certain
of the
above points, notably
those
pertaining
to
strategic
business decisions.
It
shows
how
applied
demographic
concepts
can
be fitted
with
geographic
models
to
strengthen
each
discipline's
perspective
on
a
problem.
Also,
it
illustrates
how
an
analytic
framework
informed
by
both
disciplines
can
help
structure
the
decisionmaking
process itself.
The
project involved
pinpointing
the
best
prospective
supermarket
locations
in a
densely
settled
and
ethnically diverse
metropolitan
region.
The kind
of
supermarket
to be
sited--known
as
a
combination
store--is
a
very
large
type,
only recently introduced
in
the
United
States.
Beyond
its
large
size,
the
combination
store
has
several
other
features that
distinguish
it
from
a
typical
supermarket:
a
wider
range
of
merchandise,
a
more
spacious
milieu,
and
a
layout
that
reinforces one-
stop
shopping
(the
concept
behind
this
new
type
of
store).
Indeed,
combination
stores
are
targeted
for
the
broad
segment
of
consumers
attracted
by
the
convenience
of
one-stop
shopping,
especially two-income
couples
whose
busy schedules
necessitate convenience.
Everyone
has
to
buy groceries
every
few
days;
the
logic
behind
the
combination
store
is
to sell
shoppers
a
variety
of
other more
profitable
items
while
they
are
in
the
store.
Combination
stores
are
expensive.
A
single
one
represents
an
investment of about
$10
million,
intended to
be
profitable
for
at least
15
years. Stakes
this
large
require
positioning
such
a
store
with
great
care and
confidence
that
the
surrounding
trade area will continue
to
-8 -
generate
hundreds of thousands of dollars
weekly
in
sales--the
necessary
volume to
sustain
the
store.
The
objectives
of
this
project
were
to
screen
every
one
of
several
thousand square miles
within
the
metropolitan
region and
identify the
ten highest-potential
trade
areas,
then pinpoint
the
optimal
site
(specific
street
corner).within
each
area,
rank
the top
choices,
and
justify
that
ranking.
(We
were
to
ignore
the
street corner's
present
use,
because
this
optimal
site
was to
serve
as
a
hypothetical
reference
point
for
narrowing
the
search
for
an
available
parcel nearby
each
of
the ten "hot
spots.")
The
steps
I
shall
describe
below
illustrate
several
roles
that
applied demographers
can
play
in
the
formulation
of
strategic business decisions.
1.
DEFINING
THE
PROBLEM
EMPIRICALLY
In
this
case,
it
was
necessary
to
translate management's broad
objectives
into
several distinct
tasks,
and
to
operationalize
each.
The
first
task
was to
estimate
the
potential
dollar
sales that
would
gravitate
to
a
combination
store,
positioned
in a
hypothetical location.
This
requires
measuring
the
density
of
consumers
within
the
surrounding
trade area and
estimating
the
volume
of
sales
consumers
would
generate
weekly.
We
also
had
to
adopt--and justify--our
assumptions
about
the
future
stability
of
that
population
of
consumers.
What assurance
could
we
offer that the
same
type
of
consumer base
would
persist
over
the
next
15
years?
We
defined estimated
sales
volume
and
the
probable stability
of the
consumer base
as
the
fundamentals.
That
is,
an
area
had
to
register
strong
on
both
factors
before
we
considered
it
further.
The
second
task
was
to
identify
and
measure other
socioeconomic
factors that
might enhance
sales
potential. We
posited
that
certain
combinations
of
socioeconomic
characteristics
would
generate
"hot spots"
that
standard
analyses might
overlook, because
their
sales
potential
was
subtly
concealed
in
the
demographic
makeup
of
the
resident
population.
For
the
first
task,
we
drew on
the
geographers'
conceptualization,
as
embodied
in
retail trade
modeling
(see,
for
example, Davis
and
Rogers,
1984).
To
advance
beyond standard
site-selection
methodolodgy,
-9-
however,
we
sought
to
incorporate
other
considerations
that
might
disclose
unrecognized
potential
for
supermarkets
generally
and
a
combination
store
in
particular. For
example,
two
areas
with
the
same
density
and income
per household might differ
in
important
ways--one
might
have
proportionately
more two-income
couples
(conducive
to
one-
stop
shopping)
or large families
(conducive
to
family-centered meals
at
home).
The
research literature
suggested
several such "enhancing
factors" that
might
further
strengthen
sales
potential.
We
narrowed
our
list
of
such
factors
to those
we
could
measure
with
census tract
data.
The
enhancing
factors
we
incorporated,
and
our
rationale
for
using them,
were:
*
Low
fixed
costs. Two comparable
families, each
with
identical
annual
household
income,
may
face
vastly
different
fixed
annual
costs.
Depending
on
how
long
ago
they
purchased
their homes,
annual
mortgage
payments could
differ
markedly.
In
certain
areas,
homeownership
is
skewed toward more
recent
(or distant)
years,
thereby heightening
(or
lowering)
a
typical
household's
fixed
monthly
costs.
We posit
that
where
such fixed
costs
are
uncommonly
low,
potential
store
sales
will be
higher
than
estimated
on the
basis
of
household
income.
"
Large
family households. Family
households--particularly
large
ones--are more
likely
to eat
at
home
than
are
nonfamily
households
(Bureau
of
Labor Statistics,
1983).
Accordingly,
a
customer
base
composed
disproportionately
of
people joined
into
families,
and
of
households
containing
four or
more members,
should enhance potential
food
sales.
Two-income households.
Recent studies
document
a
rapidly
emerging
"time-sensitive"
segment
within
the
supermarket
shopping
public
(Food
Marketing
Institute,
1985:
Table
15).
Working
women
shop
less
frequently,
patronize
fewer
different
stores,
are
less
inclined
to
economize
than their
nonemployed
counterparts,
and
tend to
favor
doing
all
their grocery
shopping
in
one store
(Food Marketing
Institute,
1982;
Food
Industry Management
Program,
1983).
Because
a
combination
-
10
-
store's
distinctive
appeal
is
one-stop
shopping,
an
abundance
of
time-conscious consumers
in
a
given trade
area should
enhance
potential
sales.
Briefly, then,
the
trade
areas
we
sought
were
those
possessing
sound
fundamentals
and
displaying
unusual
combinations
of
demographic
factors
likely
to
enhance those
fundamentals
in
subtle
but
important
ways.
A
basic assumption
concerned
the
radius of the
trade
area
from
which
a
combination store
was
assumed
to
draw
its
customers.
Some
newly
collected data
called
the
conventional
wisdom
into
question:
In-store
surveys
indicated
a
more
tightly
clustered
pattern
than
had
been
supposed.
Such
stores
appeared
to
draw
virtually
all
their
shoppers
from
within
only
a
few
miles, and
the
distance-decay
function
could
be
estimated
empirically
from
the survey rather
than based
on
hunches
(see
Fig.
1).
We
developed
a
model
to
estimate
the
potential
sales dollars
that
would
gravitate
to
a
hypothetical
combination
store
from the
multi-
square-mile
trade
area
surrounding
each
square mile
in
which
it
might
be
sited.
We
based
this
estimate
on
(1)
the
number
of
households
within
the
trade area,
(2)
their
distribution
by
household
size,
and
(3)
their
distribution
by income.
We
used
a
distance-decay
function
to
weight
these
characteristics more
heavily
the
closer they
were
to the
particular
square mile
being evaluated.
Weekly
food-dollar
sales
were
estimated on
the
basis
of
data
relating
food
purchases
to
income
and
household
size
(Smallwood
and
Blaylock,
1981).1
Representative
curves
displaying
these
relationships
are
shown
in
Fig.
2.
'This
equation,
estimated
from
the
Nationwide
Food
Consumption
Survey,
incorporates
additive
effects
(more household
members
and/or
higher household
income)
as
well
as
diminishing
marginal growth
in
consumption
as
either
members
or
incomes
increase.
A
six-member
household,
for
example, consumes somewhat
less
food
than
do
two three-
member
households with
the
same per
capita
income.
Likewise,
doubling
per capita
household
income
does not
double
food
consumption
at
home.
....
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..............
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.... ......
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.......
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-
13
-
2.
FRAMING
THE
STRATEGIC
DECISION
In
this
particular
case,
how
the
results
were
arrived
at
proved
to
be
as
important
as
the
results
themselves, illustrating
how
applied
demographers
sometimes
provide
an
essential
analytic framework.
The
person
who
made
the
final
decisions
had
certain
preconceptions
and
firmly
held
beliefs,
grounded
on
his
own previous
experience.
Familiarity with virtually
every commercial
street corner
in
the region
directed
his
attention
to
concrete
places.
Our
method
added
an
analytic
framework
for
thinking
comparatively
about the
trade
areas
surrounding
those places. Simply
explaining
the
logic
behind
our
procedures
and
the
way
each
variable
could
be
measured helped
to
structure
his
thinking
systematically
and
shifted
the
debate
toward
factual,
rather
than
impressionistic, criteria.
A
key element here
was
the
"Summary Scorecard"
format
(shown
in
Fig.
3).
It
illustrates
the
rationale
for
our top choices.
First,
the
very
best
sites
have high
levels
on
the
Sales
Potential Index
(SPI).
This index
was
constructed
to
measure
our
estimate
of
the
weekly
sales
volume
that
a
typical
combination
store
would
generate
within
that
square
mile
area, relative
to
several
"benchmark
stores"
actually
in
operation.
Thus,
an
SPI
of
180
implies
a
volume
of sales
would
be
80
percent above
the
average
volume
for
this
chain's
typical
combination
store.
Put
another
way,
were
an
existing
combination
store
now
in
operation
to
be
picked
up and
dropped onto
this
particular
site,
the
SPI
implies
that
its
sales
volume
would
nearly double
in
so
densely
populated
and
prosperous
a
trade
area.
SPIs
this
high
are
uncommon,
but
they
are
not
rare.
The
extraordinary
site
is
one
that
combines
a
high
SPI
and
other
attractive
demographic
fundamentals
with
a
strong
profile
of
enhancements. This
is
what
makes
the
top-ranked
site
stand
out.
Fully
73
percent of
its
households
are
homeowners,
and
62
percent
are
long-term
established
residents.
Together,
such
levels
foreshadowed
long-term
neighborhood
stability
in
this
top-ranked
site.
Moreover,
its
profile
on
the
various
enhancing
factors
surpassed
that
of most other
finalists
on
most
dimensions.
This best site
emerged
on
top,
then,
because
it
registers
-14-
-
-b
-r.
-
am
00t'it
ml 4;S
fW
*w F
-
15
-
high
sales
potential
and
an
extraordinary
combination of
other
strengths.
IV.
FUTURE
DIRECTIONS
Applied demography,
I
have
suggested,
comprises
a
diverse
set
of
applications
that
draw
on
specialized
knowledge
and
technical
skills.
Those
applications
often
stem
from
demographers' familiarity
with
census
data
and
their facility
in
adapting
it
to
business
and
public
sector
concerns.
It
is
these
concerns
that
have
driven--and will
continue
to
drive--the
further
growth
of
applied
demography
as
an
expanding body
of
practice.
At
least
three
factors
that
have
fostered
recent
growth
of
applied
demography
also
foreshadow
the
direction
of
its
further
development.
First,
technology
for
storing, retrieving,
and
matching
data has
introduced
potential
applications
that
only
a
few
years ago
were
entirely
beyond
the
realm
of
possibility.
Examples
are
CD-ROM,
high-
capacity tape
storage
media
for
desktop
use,
and the
increasing power
of
personal computers
as
workstations.
Second
is
growth
in
the
automated registry
of
microdata
on
individual consumers and
their purchase
histories,
shopping
habits,
and
so
forth.
Examples
are
airline frequent-flier programs
that track
individual
travel
behavior;
bar
code
scanners that
track supermarket
purchases;
and
the
purchase histories
that
credit
card
companies
record.
In
conjunction
with
newly
appearing technologies,
such
microdata
afford
marketers
unprecedented
detail
for
targeting
consumers
based
on
their
individual
characteristics.
The
approaches
used
in
direct
marketing
illustrate
these
possibilities:
Customized
national
mailing
lists
are
developed
from
personal characteristics
and
purchase
histories collated
from
separate
files.
Third
is
heightened
competitive pressure
within
recently
deregulated
U.S.
markets.
Within
entire industries
(e.g.,
telecommunications,
banking,
and
health
care), firms
now
find
they
must
cultivate
the
markets
they
once held
virtually
captive.
Because
of
deregulation,
these
firms
have
to
know
their
markets.
-
16
-
Clearly,
the
storage
and
processing
of
demographic
data will
expand
further
over
the
:ext several
years.
When
the
1990
decennial
census
is
released,
the
technology
for
accessing
this
information
will have
advanced
far
beyond what
is
now
in
use,
and
automated data registry
will
broaden possibilities
for
developing
individual
purchase
profiles. The
marketers'
dictum
of the
1980s
("You
are
where
you
live")
may
soon
be
replaced
by
"You
are
what
you
just
bought."
-
17
-
REFERENCES
Bureau of
Labor
Statistics.
1983.
Consumer
Expenditure
Survey:
Dairy
Survey,
1980-81
(preliminary version
dated
May
1983).
Davis,
R.
L.,
and
D. S.
Rogers.
1984.
Store Location
and
Store
Assessment Research
(New
York:
John Wiley).
Food
Industry
Management Program.
1983.
Working
Women
as Shoppers
(Los
Angeles:
University
of Southern
California).
Food
Marketing
Institute.
1985.
Trends:
Consumer Attitudes and
the
Supermarket.
1984
Update,
Washington,
DC.
1984.
Hispanic
Shoppers, Washington,
DC.
1982.
Supermarket
Shoppers'
Profile,
Washington,
DC.
Kamerman, Sheila
B.
and
Alfred
J.
Kahn.
1987.
The
Responsive Workplace:
Employees and
a
Changing Labor
Force (New
York:
Columbia University
Press).
Merrick,
Thomas
W.,
and
Stephen
J.
Tordella.
1988.
"Demographics:
People and
Markets,"
Population
Bulletin,
Vol.
43,
No.
1
(Washington,
DC:
Population
Reference
Bureau,
Inc.).
Pol,
Louis
G.
1987.
Business
Demography:
A
Guide
and
Reference
for
Business
Planners
and Marketers (New
York:
Quorum).
Smallwood, David,
and James
Blaylock.
1981.
Impact
of
Household
Size
and
Income
on
Food Spending
Patterns,
Technical
Bulletin
No.
1650
(Washington:
U.S.
Department
of
Agriculture).
Stephen,
Elizabeth
Hervey.
1988.
"How
to
Hire
a
Demographer,"
American
Demographics,
June,
pp.
38-39.
