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Abstract

One of the most widely discussed books on the environmental dilemma is “The Closing Circle” by Barry Commoner, director of the Center for Biology and Natural Systems at Washington University, St. Louis. Shortly after its publication (Knopf, 1971), a critique of the book was issued by Paul R. Ehrlich, professor of biological sciences at Stanford University, and John P. Holdren, a physicist at the Environmental Quality Laboratory, California Institute of Technology. Professor Ehrlich, also author of a widely discussed book, “The Population Bomb” (Ballantine, 1968, 1971), and Dr. Holdren state in part that “in fixing the blame for environmental deterioration on faulty technology alone, Commoner's position is uncomplicated, socially comfortable and, hence, seductive. But there is little point in deluding the public on these matters; the truth is that we must grapple simultaneously with overpopulation, excessive affluence and faulty technology.” The Bulletin herewith presents the Ehrlich-Holdren critique and Commoner's response.

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... Equation (2) examines the various factors motivating environmental pollution [101]. IPAT Kaya identity has already been employed in China, Pakistan, OECD countries, and South Korea [1, 75,77], and was first introduced by Ehrlich and Holdren [102]. The IPAT model provides the framework to analyze the determinants of the environment based on three shortcomings. ...
... Secondly, the model shows the relationship between population, affluence, and technology. Thirdly, Ehrlich and Holdren [102] measure the environmental impact. This also tests the effect of economic development on the environment. ...
... The model examines the variations in R&D activities motivated by the reduction of fossil fuel power regarding research and development investment and the creation of green patents. According to Ehrlich and Holdren [102], IPAT provides a simple theoretical framework to analyze the given factors of the environment. CO 2 emissions, GDP, TEC, FFC, R&D, and Patents have been taken as variables to find out both emissions and environmental effects. ...
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Energy plays an imperative role in global economies, such that products and services are generally dependent on energy use. This study leads to the application of environmental policies under green research and development (R&D) investment in Pakistan. Existing research has tried to analyze the effects of R&D investment associated with patent applications using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method called PATENT. The objective of this method is to examine the variations in R&D activities motivated by the reduction of fossil fuel power. The research contributes the following: (1) the R&D reaction is the main factor in raising the number of patent applications, while R&D efficiency needs more enhancements. (2) Reaction and production effects are imperative in raising the number of patent applications during the study period. (3) R&D expenditure presents a significant rise in renewable energy technologies (RETs), by 6.7% yearly, which ultimately impacts the economy, sustainability, and the environment. (4) Energy intensity shows a lowering trend in economic development, which confirms that that share of energy will decline, and that Pakistan will move towards significant contributions. Finally, the results show that raising R&D investments, technology transfer and engendered measures are the authentic approaches to Pakistan’s environmental and economic development. Based on the analyzed method, the study recommends that environmental regulation policies’ efficiency be incremented by investing and joining them with RETs. Furthermore, the concerned policies linked with the estimated outcomes are provided below.
... Furthermore, Commoner et al. (1971) noted that the PAT factors are independent. Ehrlich and Holdren (1972) argued against this perspective, pointing out that these elements are interdependent. According to Ehrlich and Holdren (1972), environmental degradation is frequently induced by a negative change in technology because of a simultaneous shift in both population and affluence components, even if the change is minor. ...
... Ehrlich and Holdren (1972) argued against this perspective, pointing out that these elements are interdependent. According to Ehrlich and Holdren (1972), environmental degradation is frequently induced by a negative change in technology because of a simultaneous shift in both population and affluence components, even if the change is minor. As a result, environmental degradation is severe in societies where population growth and affluence are both increasing. ...
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The global economy continues to endure the adverse effects of climate change whose impact remains a threat multiplier that could impair the socioeconomic development of countries. This study examines the role of the changing structure of economies in the quest to achieve climate neutrality targets. To achieve this, the effect of structural change on environmental quality in the context of three major greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) is examined. The data of the top 20 polluting countries from 1990 to 2020 is analysed. Interestingly, the results suggest that structural change may not necessarily enhance attaining climate neutrality if more greenhouse gases are considered aside from carbon emissions. Further, an increase in affluence factors, energy‐intensive technologies and population limit the attainment of climate neutrality due to their stimulating effect on the emission of all three greenhouse gases. However, renewable energy adoption is found to enhance the attainment of climate neutrality. These findings have far‐reaching implications for policies aiming to achieve climate neutrality targets.
... Interestingly, experts have probed the dimensions of several enabling factors of climate change as well as potential mitigation enablers (see, Ding, Khattak, and Ahmad 2021;Kirikkaleli, Sowah, and Addai 2023;Obiakor, Uche, and Das 2022;Uche 2022;Uche et al., 2002;Uche, Chang, and Effiom 2022). Surprisingly, very little is known about the dimension of energy efficiency particularly for India. ...
... The conceptual and theoretical explanation of environmental impact is anchored on the anthropogenic drivers of economic agents as domiciled in the foremost holistic assessment of environmental effect (Ehrlich and Holdren 1972;York, Rosa, and Dietz 2003). These drivers are combination of Population (P), Affluence (A), and Technology (T) (PAT) which might have direct or indirect effects on the environment via energy productivity. ...
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The overwhelming effects of climate change on the living environments has prompted several countries, including India into rolling out different carbon neutrality agenda. On this background, this study activated policy framework towards the attainment of India’s 2070 net-zero emission target via energy efficiency. The roles of green-technology, affluence and population were also rectified. With quarterly series spanning 1997Q1–2021Q4 and estimates of the novel wavelet quantile correlation technique, the following insights sufficed. Energy-intensity generated significant carbon de-escalation effects mainly in the medium and long term. There were evidence of long-term asymmetric effects between them. Carbon intensity as well as green technology aggravated carbon emissions in both short and medium term, however, over the long term, they generated carbon neutrality effects. The empirical estimates also validated the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) ideology given the long-term environmental quality enhancing attributes of GDP. India’s population represents a major challenge for the net-zero emission target. But this can be curtailed through adequate orientations as prescribed in the LiFE progrmme. Among other considerations, India’s net-zero target is realisable if the country extends its low-carbon energy profiles and deploy more green technologies.
... This study employed an extended STIRPAT model, and regression analysis was conducted using the Sys-GMM method. The STIRPAT model is a stochastic form of the IPAT identity, which was initially proposed by Ehrlich and Holdren in 1972 and has since become a classic theoretical framework in the field of environmental economics [22][23][24]. The basic expression of the IPAT model is as follows: ...
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Urbanization affects economic production activities and energy demand, as well as lifestyle and consumption behavior, affecting carbon dioxide emissions. This study constructs the System Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM) model of the impact of urbanization rate on carbon dioxide emissions based on panel data of 136 countries and regions in the world from 1990 to 2020, grounded on the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. This study found that (1) there is a negative relationship between urbanization rate and CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2020. (2) The impact of the urbanization rate on CO2 emissions is heterogeneous. An increase in urbanization rate in non-OECD countries significantly reduces CO2 emissions, while the effect is not significant in OECD countries. (3) The carbon intensity of fossil energy consumption moderates the relationship between urbanization rate and CO2 emissions, weakening the effect of urbanization rate on CO2 emissions. Based on these findings, policy recommendations such as promoting urbanization and increasing the regulation and control of fossil energy carbon intensity are proposed.
... The groundbreaking study by Ehrlich and Holdren (1971) and Ehrlich and Holdren (1972) introduced the IPAT model. The identity is determined by three factors: Population (P), Affluence (A), and Technology (T), as shown in equation (1). ...
... The IPAT equation is a commonly used method for assessing the environmental impact of human activities, first proposed by Commoner [21] and Ehrlich and Holdren [22]. It channels the impact of human activities on the environment (I) into three aspects: population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T), i.e., ...
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This paper proposes a semiparametric spatial lag model and develops a Bayesian estimation method for this model. In the estimation of the model, the paper combines Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm, random walk Metropolis sampler, and Gibbs sampling techniques to sample all the parameters. The paper conducts numerical simulations to validate the proposed Bayesian estimation theory using a numerical example. The simulation results demonstrate satisfactory estimation performance of the parameter part and the fitting performance of the nonparametric function under different spatial weight matrix settings. Furthermore, the paper applies the constructed model and its estimation method to an empirical study on the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in China, illustrating the practical application value of the theoretical results.
... The IPAT and Kaya identities have been important in sustainability evaluation by deepening an understanding of the systemic driving forces of environmental problems, including the role of economic growth. The IPAT identity [67][68][69] defines major reasons for environmental impact (I) as a multiplicative identity of Population (P), Affluence (A), and Technology (T). The Kaya identity is a specific application of the IPAT identity that identifies the major drives of carbon dioxide emissions, such as population, GDP per capita, the energy intensity of the economy, and carbon intensity of the energy mix [70]. ...
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Across decades of contemporary discussion on sustainable development, a core concern has been the balance between economic, social, and environmental dimensions. A critical strand of the debate focuses on economic growth versus economic degrowth and, more specifically, on whether economic growth can be sustainable in environmental terms and whether degrowth can be sustainable in social terms. This conceptual and theoretical article used the Sustainability Window, or “SuWi”’ method, to theoretically determine the sustainable window of economies. The window is defined as the upper and lower bounds of future change in GDP that could be deemed in line with achieving both environmental and social sustainability. The conceptual analysis considers all theoretically possible scenario paths for development by combining the outcome paths of economic, environmental, and social dimensions with the environmental and social productivities of GDP. Through SuWi analysis, it is found that only four of the logically possible scenario paths could be considered theoretically “sustainable”—two cases involving economic growth and two of degrowth. In the cases of each of the four paths, sustainability only emerges where they adhere to strict conditions in terms of environmental and social outcomes, as well as related productivities. The SuWi approach and its applied analytical formulas have many potential uses in 21st-century policymaking for sustainability, including supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. It provides a unique and comprehensive theoretical and analytical framework that enables the categorisation of the complex challenges of sustainability and quantitative analysis of policy choices. Such foresight analysis could greatly assist in providing an evidence base for future development planning and policy formulation, ex ante of locking in a pathway. Further implementation in applied studies that explore a comprehensive indicator set, robust and consistent across all relevant dimensions, offers a promising opportunity to advance empirical analysis of key questions in sustainable development globally at a critical juncture in human history.
... The IPAT and Kaya identities have been important in sustainability evaluation by deepening an understanding of the driving forces of environmental problems, including the role of economic growth. The IPAT identity [69][70][71] defines major reasons for the global environmental impact (I): population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). The Kaya identity identifies the major drives of carbon dioxide emissions, i.e. population, GDP per capita, the energy intensity of the economy, and carbon intensity of the energy mix [72]. ...
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Across decades of contemporary discussion on sustainable development, a core debate has concerned the relationship between the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In recent years, a debate on economic growth versus degrowth has been going on discussing whether economic growth can be sustainable in environmental terms and whether economic degrowth can be sustainable in social terms. This conceptual and theoretical article has used the Sustainability Window, or ‘SuWi’ method, to theoretically determine the sustainable window of economies, as upper and lower bounds of future change in GDP, that could be deemed in line with environmental and social sustainability. All theoretically possible scenario paths of development are considered by combining the economic, environmental, and social dimensions, with the environmental and social productivities of GDP. In moving to sustainability analysis through SuWi it is noted that only four of the logically possible scenario paths could be considered theoretically 'sustainable’, and only if adhering to strict conditions. Two of the hypothesised scenarios involve economic growth and two of economic degrowth. The approach, including calculation formulas, has many potential uses in providing analysis and support to 21st century sustainability policymaking, including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
... The models used in this analysis are consistent with those that assess the impact of economic activity on carbon emissions: STIRPAT, ImPACT, and IPAT. For IPAT, the environmental impact (I) is expressed as the product of three components (population P; affluence, A; technology, T), as addressed in Commoner (2020) and Ehrlich and Holdren (1972). In this approach, environmental degradation is explained by increasing affluence patterns, technological advancements, and population growth. ...
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This paper presents a prediction framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on conventional empirical methodology (CO-STIRPAT, bootstrapping sampling, and system dynamics) is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the framework to data observed in the Republic of Korea (ROK) shows that the effect of increasing the share of green energy alone may not be enough to achieve the NDC target by 2030. Given the economic conditions in the period up to 2030, additional efforts should be made to develop and adopt new climate technologies related to energy efficiency and carbon intensity. Alternatively, it may be appropriate for ROK to slow down the pace at which it raises its NDC. Our prediction framework can provide information that can motivate countries to reevaluate whether the ambition level of its target is aligned with the latest economic conditions and to set more reasonable goals in their subsequent NDCs.
... These theoretical concepts are often used as a starting point to understand the complex interactions between human activities and the environment. As discussed in early papers (Commoner 1971;Ehrlich and Holdren 1972), IPAT (Impact, Population, Affluence, and Technology) is a simple equation that expresses the environmental impact (I) as the product of population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). IPAT emphasizes the role of population growth, increasing affluence patterns, and technological advancements in shaping environmental degradation. ...
Article
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This paper presents an operational framework for assessing the trajectories of production, energy, emissions, and capital accumulation to ensure the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The framework combines widely used methodologies (STIRPAT, system dynamics, and optimization) to simulate the pathways of variables until a target year. The CO-STIRPAT dynamic system allows us to identify the spillover pathways from carbon policy to economic growth based on output optimization principles; to conduct a more systematic analysis of the interconnections between the main drivers that determine carbon emissions; to develop a cost-effective climate policy mix that is a backbone for the right combination of carbon pricing, energy efficiency, and carbon intensity; and to assess NDC targets with respect to ambition gaps, implementation gaps, and feasibility.
... The IPAT identity, developed by [22], states that environmental impact can be split in three factors: the population size, the level of economic activity or per capita income and the polluting intensity of economic activity. The latter is fundamentally determined by the sectoral structure of the economy and the current production technology. ...
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Air pollution is one of the most severe environmental problems that Mexico is currently facing. The objective of this paper is to quantify the most relevant socioeconomic driving forces behind air polluting emissions and, more specifically, 7 local pollutants in Mexico. We do so in a multilevel version of the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model that accounts for the spatial heterogeneity at the municipal level across the country. The results show that the most relevant variables to determine the emissions of atmospheric pollutants are the population, the harvested area and the number of cars, while technological development helps to mitigate such emissions. The ecological elasticities are, in all cases, smaller than one. Our purpose is to provide quantitative information about these socioeconomic driving forces of air deterioration as a basis to establish some recommendations for environmental policy decision-making.
... An alternative perspective that can be used to measure the sustainability of a technology is through the use of the IPAT equation (I=P×A×T) [10], which relates the impact of population P, affluence A (or consumption per person), and technology T (the impact per unit of consumption) on the environment, focusing more on the interaction of the combined issues than on the isolated aspects. Thus, to lower the impact, three different strategies can be used, namely, to lower the number of consumers, to lower the consumption, or to produce in a green way, including the macroeconomics and the socioeconomics of the technology in the sustainability value of the materials. ...
... These theoretical concepts are often used as a starting point to understand the complex interactions between human activities and the environment. As discussed in early papers (Commoner 1971;Ehrlich and Holdren 1972), IPAT (Impact, Population, Affluence, and Technology) is a simple equation that expresses the environmental impact (I) as the product of population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). IPAT emphasizes the role of population growth, increasing affluence patterns, and technological advancements in shaping environmental degradation. ...
... A partir de la Revolución Industrial se han desarrollado nuevos conocimientos y tecnologías que permiten multiplicar la extracción de recursos de todo tipo, así como la producción y el consumo creciente de bienes por parte de un volumen de población que continúa creciendo de forma exponencial en todo el mundo; de hecho, la población mundial se duplicó en los últimos 50 años y alcanzó los 8000 millones en 2022. El impacto combinado de todo ello se trató de resumir de forma sintética en la célebre fórmula IPAT -Impacto = Población × Consumo ("Afl uence") × Tecnología, o mejor I = f (P, A, T)-, propuesta en los años setenta por Commoner (1972) y Ehrlich y Holdren (1972. Lo cierto es que ese impacto experimentó una dinámica acumulativa cuyo ritmo ha ido en aumento década tras década hasta adquirir uno especialmente acelerado a partir de la segunda mitad del siglo XX, en coincidencia con lo que se ha dado en llamar la "edad de oro del capitalismo", el "fordismo" o la "gran aceleración". ...
Book
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El desbordamiento de los límites ecológicos del planeta reclama una urgente y profunda transformación del actual modelo económico para caminar hacia una economía circular y sostenible, conscientemente respetuosa de esos límites. Como economistas, debemos superar el corsé del discurso convencional aportando diagnósticos rigurosos de las causas de los problemas acumulados y proponer las transformaciones necesarias en las instituciones, las reglas de juego, los mercados, los modelos de negocio, las pautas de consumo y las políticas e instrumentos económicos para impulsar un cambio sistémico que ha de ser justo ambiental, territorial y socialmente. Este libro aporta análisis y reflexiones sobre temas claves para esa transformación circular sostenible: una revisión crítica de los diferentes enfoques de la economía circular (EC) y de las propuestas reduccionistas dominantes; los indicadores para diagnosticar la realidad y cuantificar la EC; el estudio empírico de las especificidades de las actividades circulares y los diferentes modelos de negocio circulares; el papel del comercio internacional, el transporte y las cadenas globales de valor y, por último, un estudio sistemático de las diferentes políticas relacionadas con la EC, con especial atención a las desarrolladas en la Unión Europea, desde las políticas regulatorias, a la ecoinnovación, la compra pública o las políticas fiscales. El objetivo es contribuir al debate en la academia y a la formación de nuevas generaciones de estudiantes, así como nutrir de ideas a las instituciones y los movimientos sociales, que son, todos ellos, actores necesarios del cambio hacia una economía realmente sostenible.
... The IPAT equation, namely the environmental impact equation, was proposed by the scholar Ehrlich in the 1970s [67]: ...
Article
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As an industry that consumes a quarter of social energy and emits a third of greenhouse gases, the construction industry has an important responsibility to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Based on Web of Science, Science-Direct, and CNKI, the accounting and prediction models of carbon emissions from buildings are reviewed. The carbon emission factor method, mass balance method, and actual measurement method are analyzed. The top-down and bottom-up carbon emission accounting models and their subdivision models are introduced and analyzed. Individual building carbon emission assessments generally adopt a bottom-up physical model, while urban carbon emission assessments generally adopt a top-down economic input-output model. Most of the current studies on building carbon emission prediction models follow the path of “exploring influencing factors then putting forward prediction models based on influencing factors”. The studies on driving factors of carbon emission mainly use the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model, the grey correlation degree model, and other models. The prediction model is realized by the regression model, the system dynamics model, and other mathematical models, as well as the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model, and other machine learning models. At present, the research on carbon emission models of individual buildings mainly focuses on the prediction of operational energy consumption, and the research models for the other stages should become a focus in future research.
... Together they identified the relationship between population and environmental impact. The equation explaining the fundamental causes of environmental degradation was developed into this formula: I = P × A × T, where I is the environmental impact, P is population (the number of humans), A is affluence (material resource consumption and concomitant pollution per person), and T is technology (or the relative efficiency with which consumption and production are achieved) [21]. ...
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Introduction: The paper explores the links between sustainability, population and reproductive ethics, because sustainability goals and population matters both imply ethical commitments. Materials and methods: This article is based on a critical analysis of current scientific and philosophical literature on sustainability, population and reproductive ethics. Results: The idea of sustainability, as enshrined in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, is a concept whose goal is to protect the environment, strengthen human communities and foster prosperity; in other words, to create a world in which all can thrive and prosper. However, humanity is moving quickly in the opposite direction. The main causes of unsustainability are excessive human numbers and the excessive human economic activity to which they lead. Sustainability is achievable, but it requires a sustainable human population. According to the latest studies, that is somewhere around three billion humans. Reaching this goal requires targeting all four reachable roots of the population's growth. Supportive measures, such as voluntary family planning, education and empowerment, combat (1) unwanted fertility and (2) coerced fertility. However, (3) population momentum and (4) wanted fertility also must be addressed. Conclusion: The latter two can be approached through promotion of reproductive ethics of small families, ideally one-child families, as a new global ethical norm.
... As discussed in early papers (Commoner 1971;Ehrlich and Holdren 1972), IPAT (Impact, Population, Affluence, and Technology) is a simple equation that expresses the environmental impact (I) as the product of population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). The identity highlights the multiplicative relationship between these factors and their combined influence on environmental impacts. ...
Article
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hr /> This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology. </p
... Air quality will deteriorate as overcrowding increases. Ehrlich & Holdren (1972), developed a model of the relationship of population density to environmental impacts also described using the IPAT (Impact-Population-Affluence-Technology) model. ...
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The aim of this research is to analyze the effect of GDP Capita, Population Density and Foreign Direct Investment on the Environmental Quality Index. This type of quantitative research with multiple linear regression model analysis. Using panel data in four provinces of Kalimantan Island in the 2010-2021 period. The results showed that population density has a significant effect on environmental quality. Meanwhile, GDP Per Capita and Foreign Direct Investment partially do not significantly affect environmental quality. The three independent variables simultaneously have a significant effect on the environmental quality index.
... As discussed in early papers (Commoner 1971;Ehrlich and Holdren 1972), IPAT (Impact, Population, Affluence, and Technology) is a simple equation that expresses the environmental impact (I) as the product of population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). The identity highlights the multiplicative relationship between these factors and their combined influence on environmental impacts. ...
... Energy and environmental economists have primarily used two theories to investigate the driving force behind global warming, with a greater emphasis on CO 2 emissions as an indicator of pollution or degradation of the environment (Shobande and Ogbeifun, 2022). IPAT (Impact= Population x Affluence x Technology) theory was developed by Ehrlich and Holdren (1972) and later modified to STIRPAT for empirical estimation (Dietz and Rosa, 1997;York et al., 2003) and Environmental Kuznets Curve theory or hypothesis (Grossman and Krueger, 1995). STIRPAT framework has received considerable attention among scholars, however, the effect of the drivers of environmental pollution using this framework has remained inconclusive (Shobande and Ogbeifun, 2022). ...
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The increase in the level of CO2 emissions has triggered the global temperature to rise above the pre industrial levels. The unprecedented climate change has resulted in flooding and droughts that have displaced millions of people from their homes, plunged them into poverty, famine, and stunted economic growth, especially in countries with shoddy infrastructure. The large-scale use of fossil fuels across the globe, increase in urbanization and economic growth are likely to worsen the environmental quality. However, the proponents of the economic growth hypothesis do not admit that the consumption of fossil fuels and urban expansion, increase the level of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. The current study examines the effects of fossil fuels consumption, economic growth, urbanization and CO2 emissions in Kenya over the period 1971 to 2014. The study follows a formal time series econometric estimation strategy and estimates the long-run model using an autoregressive distributed lag. The study findings show that economic growth and the uptake of fossil fuels increase CO2 emission, while urbanization reduces it. The study recommends phasing out subsidies for conventional energy supply, promoting energy efficiency and accelerating the development of clean energy technologies.
... In the literature, analysis aimed at disaggregating the impact of the energy system on sustainability has been developed as IPAT Identity [8], based on population, affluence and technology, and Kaya Identity [9], which expresses CO2 emissions as the product of demographic (population, P), economic (per capita income, g), efficiency (energy intensity, e) and emissive (carbon intensity, f) factors. ...
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Nowadays, a very strong concern is coming from the fact that human intervention is heavily affecting the environment. In the past, the most harmful countries for the environment were the USA and Europe due to their development and level of industrialization. Today, the most impactful countries on the environment are the ones from across Asia, especially China and India. In order to interrupt these issues and to help prevent the further deterioration of the world, the UN redacted the 2030 Agenda. This presents a possible way in which countries might act against the effects of climate changes, reducing global warming and further world pollution. Being the most ambitious in this regard, the EU decided to implement the Green Deal. In our paper, based on the EU accomplishments in this direction, we try to build a scenario of how the world will look like if the three most polluting countries will apply the targets set by the EU. In this attempt, we used the Kaya Identity to measure the forecasted impact and arrived to the conclusion that, by applying this measures, energy consumption will be reduced, the consumption of renewable energy will increase, CO2 emissions will be reduced and the world can manage to come back to the level it had in 1990.
... The excessive consumption of richer groups, both in the global north and among elites in the global south, was one of the main arguments for contesting the notion that over-population might be solely responsible for environmental impacts, pointing towards the social dynamics underpinning (un-)sustainable consumption. These dynamics are exemplified in the IPAT formula (Ehrlich and Holdren, 1972), whereby environment impacts (I) are seen as resulting from the relation between population growth (P), affluence (for which consumption can be a proxy) (A) and technological efficiency gains (T). 1 Much is missing from this formula; not least, the question of power dynamics, and the social impacts of current systems of production and consumption. While 'affluence' was under-problematised for a number of years in consumption and sustainability studies, it is now gaining more traction in scientific research, as well as in the media; although in both instances, the question of overpopulation is revived quite regularly. ...
... STIRPAT (stochastic impacts of regression on population, affluence, and technology) has proven an effectual modeling system for predicting measures of environmental change. Derived from earlier, accounting-based systems (see Ehrlich and Holdren 1972), STIRPAT offers the ability for hypothesis testing and easier interpretability due to elasticity coefficients (York et al 2003a). The modeling approach is theoretically informed, logging all variables to produce a multiplicative relationship between them. ...
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Mitigating emissions from methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is a critical task of fossil fuel alternatives in energy generation as well as in other sectors with large environmental impacts such as agriculture. Agricultural methane emissions have not been given sufficient attention in social science approaches to the human dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions. Given the importance of methane emissions, the need for renewable energy development, and the relationship between hydropower and agricultural systems, we ask: Does hydroelectricity development influence agricultural methane emissions? If so, under what socioeconomic conditions? Using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and FAO data, we present fixed-effects models with robust standard errors to predict agricultural methane emissions from 1975-2015. Our results show that in low middle income nations and across all nations, increased hydroelectricity generation was associated with increased agricultural methane emissions during this period. We suggest hydroelectricity generation and affluence are associated with a suite of agricultural techniques, including the organization of agricultural waterbodies and animal feed, which may contribute to higher levels of agricultural methane emissions. Given the pressing need for alternatives to fossil fuels, we recommend further examination of the economic conditions for implementing alternative fuels to avoid unintended environmental harms, including those which directly counteract the intended emissions-reduction purpose of these alternatives.
... The STIRPAT model is extended from the IPAT model (Dietz, 1997) proposed by Ehrlich and Holdren (1972), inheriting the advantages of simple form of model setting and breaking the constraint of linear influence of each factor on environmental quality. We take the STIRPAT model as a theoretical framework to study the nonlinear relationship among carbon emissions, economic growth and urbanization, the benchmark model is of the following form: Based on this, the equation (1) is deformed as: ...
... The IPAT is an equation format that integrates sustainability outputs to three major causal factors: population, affluence, and technology. The equation of IPAT was initially proposed during the 1970s to deeply understand the change in population, affluence, and technology toward their environmental impact (I) (Ehrlich and Holdren, 1972). More specifically, in the IPAT application, the term T mainly determines the environmental impact per unit for the economic activity. ...
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This study focuses on determining the relationship between carbon emissions, financial development, population, green technology innovation, energy Consumption, and employment rate from 1980 to 2019 in China. The study applies the unit root test, bootstrapped ARDL cointegration, and the Granger causality to examine the data properties and association between the variables of interest. Empirical findings indicate that green technology innovations and financial development play a major role in environmental protection, specifically in the long run. In contrast, energy consumption and employment rate are more vulnerable to protecting the natural environment in China. On the other side, the findings under short-run estimation do not support the role of green technology innovation in reducing environmental degradation. Based on the empirical findings, it is suggested that a strong financial system would help to achieve long-run sustainability and the emissions mitigating effects can be further strengthen by implementing green technologies across industries. In doing so, strict environmental regulations can regulate the financial and traditional industrial sector in adoption of energy efficient technologies.
... However, when the economic goals have been achieved which means that per capita income has increased, the level of awareness of environmental quality begins to develop (Spilker, Koubi, & Bernauer, 2017). Ehrlich and Holdren (1972) in their theory of Impacts of Population, Affluence and Technology (IPAT) explain that income and population are the main factors that can affect the environment. It will decrease along with the development of technology. ...
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Chapter
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Chapter
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Thesis
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The emergence of new empirical evidence and ethical debate about families created by assisted reproduction has called into question the current regulatory frameworks that govern reproductive donation in many countries. In this multidisciplinary book, social scientists, ethicists and lawyers offer fresh perspectives on the current challenges facing the regulation of reproductive donation and suggest possible ways forward. They address questions such as: what might people want to know about the circumstances of their conception? Should we limit the number of children donors can produce? Is it wrong to pay donors or to reward them with cut-price fertility treatments? Is overseas surrogacy exploitative of women from poor communities? Combining the latest empirical research with analysis of ethics, policy and legislation, the book focuses on the regulation of gamete and embryo donation and surrogacy at a time when more people are considering assisted reproduction and when new techniques and policies are underway.
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Various arguments have been discussed in the literature for a long time regarding the fact that economic growth has both environmental and social costs. In the globalizing world, the environmental degradation caused by the economically developing economies and their energy consumption are considered among the most important problems today. Numerous studies show that factors such as economic growth, intensity of energy consumption and rapid increase in population, which are closely related to each other, among the most important causes of greenhouse gas emissions and environmental problems. In the current study, the relations between Particulate Matter 10 (PM10), an indicator of air pollution, economic growth and energy consumption are empirically analyzed at the provincial level using a panel data set covering 77 provinces of Turkey and the period 2008-2020. The results of the analysis reveal that population and income do not have a statistically significant effect on air pollution in Turkey. Additionally, the findings suggest that education and electricity consumption have a reducing effect on air pollution, while the industrial structure and the number of vehicles in the provinces increased air pollution. According to the results, on the other hand, it has been determined that the variables that have the most negative impact on air pollution in metropolitan cities are the income level and the increase in the number of vehicles, while industrial production has the most negative impact on air pollution in smaller cities.
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Human capital is an important aspect of energy consumption, exerting crucial effects on economic growth, technological progress, and economic restructuring. This paper presents an in-depth investigation of the effect of human capital on energy consumption using an extended version of the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology framework. The estimated results using a panel dataset covering China’s 30 provincial regions during the period 1997–2018 and applying fixed effects with instrumental variables and the generalized method of moments indicated that an increase in human capital significantly drove energy consumption. A 1% increase in human capital increased energy consumption by approximately 0.3%. A two-step channel analysis to test scale, technical, and structural effects revealed that the positive effect of human capital on energy consumption is based primarily on the scale effect. However, highly educated human capital alleviates the energy pressure of this effect. In contrast to the scale effect, both the technical and structural effects of human capital reduced energy consumption, and this reduction is primarily correlated with enterprises’ utility-oriented technological progress. Finally, we present strategic energy control policy implications related to human capital.
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Human impacts on natural systems are often analysed using a statistical model based on the 50-year old IPAT concept, where impact (I) is a function of population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). Varied results have accrued, but problems remain: ecological predictors are not part of the anthropocentric IPAT concept or statistical model; vastly different countries are often treated as statistical replicates; alternative hypotheses are rarely compared; and most studies evaluated only CO2 emissions as impacts. Here we compare alternative mixed-effect models to predict human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) as an indicator of global human impacts at relatively fine scale (5 arc-min grid). Predictors represent anthropocentric (P, A and T) and/or ecological (plant biomass and climate) effects, with countries (N = 168) and/or anthropogenic biomes (anthromes; N = 19) as random effects. The most efficient models predict location and amount of HANPP well (R² = 0.91 and 0.63, respectively) and use all predictors listed above. In both cases, ecological predictors and population have greatest effects on HANPP, consistent with a general, ecological predator–prey relationship modified by socio-ecological conditions. Global human impacts on terrestrial ecosystems (measured as HANPP) depend on both ecological and socioeconomic factors revealed here. Understanding these relationships is a necessary step toward mitigating human impacts on land.
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Since the European Union (EU)’s current goal of making its continent the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050, the EU will need to set a path for new policies in the areas of Europe’s economy, energy consumption, and agriculture. Thus, this paper analyzes the marginal impact of energy price and economic freedom on Europe’s CO2 emissions grounded on the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology ecology (STIRPAT) model together with the spatial econometric models. The results indicate the existence of spatial spillover effect of CO2 emissions among some countries in Europe. The Hausman test was also performed to select the best model between the random effects and the fixed effects. The findings suggest that increasing both economic freedom and energy price in a local country turns to reduce the country’s own CO2 emissions and also reduces the emissions of its adjacent countries. Comparing the direct effect of economic freedom and energy price to that of the SDM fixed effect, a feedback of 12.77% and 23.53% of the direct effect was observed, respectively. The results also indicated that the turning point of economic freedom and economic growth was 6.714 and thus 9.083. Overall, the study spotlighted some policy suggestions for the energy market for the European commission in reducing the emissions of CO2.
Chapter
In Chap. 1, I mentioned that the cause of environmental problems is attributed to economic activity. Therefore, the three major agents in the economy—consumers, producers, and government—must cooperate to mitigate the economic impact on the environment. In this chapter, I show the importance of these economic actors to come together to create a society where the development of new environmental technologies is accepted and promoted for achieving sustainable development. Then, the concept of sustainability is explained and suggests the significance of implementing policies to shift toward a stronger type of sustainability.
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The increased mercury content in a Greenland ice sheet over the last several decades suggests the dissemination of this element about the earth's atmosphere through the activities of man. The mercury content in the atmosphere appears to result primarily from the degassing of the earth's crust. Increased flux may come about as a result of the enhancement of this degassing process through the actions of man.
See also many other papers in this volume, as well as “Arid Lands in Transition
  • Carl O Sauer
Principles of Demography
  • E G See
  • J Donald
  • Bogue
The mercury discussion in this paragraph is based on information from “Man's Impact on the Global Environment
  • Herbert V Weiss
  • Minuro Koide
  • Edward D Goldberg
  • O I Joensu
Sinauer Assoc., 1971); and “Diversity and Stability in Ecological Systems
  • E O Wilson
  • W A Bossert