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Equilibrium and Change in Nonmetropolitan Growth

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The reversal of relative growth rates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan U.S. countries between 1970-75 is analyzed in the context of: metropolitan expansion; changing demographic composition; and preference for residential location. (Author/JC)

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... On the one hand, Frey (1993) has argued that period effects and regional restructuring offer the best explanations for the observed trends and patterns of the 1970s and 1980s. On the other hand, Lichter (1993) suggested that discarding the deconcentration perspective is premature (Wardwell 1977). Furthermore, Johnson and Beale (1994) speculate that current trends may indicate a return to 1970s patterns and that the 1980s patterns of slow nonmetro growth were just a pause associated with period effects. ...
... The overall trends indicate that the growth rate for population in metropolitan counties has declined over time, from 4.1 percent per year in the 1970s to 2.5 percent in the 1980s and to 2.4 percent in the 1990s. In contrast, nonmetropolitan growth rates have exhibited a "seesaw" effect, ranging from 3.0 percent in the 1970s, down to 1.1 percent in the 1980s (all from natural increase), and back up to 2.2 percent per year in the early 1990s, thus supporting Wardwell's (1977) andJohnson and Beale's (1994) contention ofa metro/nonmetro equilibrium with short-term fluctuations. ...
... Johnson and Beale (1994) conclude that the diminished nonmetro population gains of the 1980s were due to period factors and that once these factors had played themselves out, nonmetro areas again started to gain population through net in-migration and natural increase. Following Wardwell (1977), they argue that metro and nonmetro areas have entered a period of equilibrium where periodic shocks can cause severe short-term demographic shifts. ...
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Abstract Current research on nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) population change shows that, to date, the 1990s are reminiscent of the 1970s rather than the 1980s. Nonmetro areas, including the Mountain West, are again gaining population through increases in net migration. Over the past several years, subareas within the Mountain West have experienced some of the fastest rates of population growth and economic expansion in the United States. Current growth patterns in the Mountain West are distinct from those in both the 1970s “rural renaissance” and the 1980s “nonmetro contraction” periods. Nonmetro counties in the Mountain West are growing at about the same rate as metropolitan (metro) counties, and although the growth rate is slower now than in the 1970s, more counties are participating in the growth. These findings support earlier research suggesting that nonmetro growth may not be ending.
... During the "nonmetropolitan turnaround" era of the 1970s, work focused on the growth and characteristics of nonmetropolitan areas and on the nature and size of metropolitan-nonmetropolitan migration streams and growth differentials (Fuguitt, 1985). A central issue was whether population shifts marked a fundamental realignment of U.S. settlement structure or simply represented a continuation of the metropolitanization process, albeit in a more diffuse form (Alonso, 1977;Hawley, 1978;Wardwell, 1977Wardwell, , 1980Wilson, 1986). Simple answers have not been forthcoming. ...
... During the "nonmetropolitan turnaround" era of the 1970s, work focused on the growth and characteristics of nonmetropolitan areas and on the nature and size of metropolitan-nonmetropolitan migration streams and growth differentials (Fuguitt, 1985). A central issue was whether population shifts marked a fundamental realignment of U.S. settlement structure or simply represented a continuation of the metropolitanization process, albeit in a more diffuse form (Alonso, 1977;Hawley, 1978;Wardwell, 1977Wardwell, , 1980Wilson, 1986). Simple answers have not been forthcoming. ...
... Change in the initial area is lowest in the 1960s and highest in the turnaround decade of the 1970s. Thus the total nonmetropolitan change is lowest (-13.2) in the decade just before the turnaround, Metropolitan Definition, United States, 1950-1960, 1960-1970, 1970-1980 b The 1958 and1980 rules were used at each date of designation to determine whether or not an SMSA was included. ...
Article
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Alternative approaches have led to different interpretations of the metropolitanization process in the United States. We identify and illustrate several methods and procedures for monitoring metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change using the 1950-1980 U.S. decennial censuses. Two basic approaches are compared: constant area approaches and component methods. In addition, we assess the effects of changing metropolitan definitions on metropolitan-nonmetropolitan growth. The results clearly reveal that the underlying mechanics of metropolitanization not only are complex but have changed substantially during the 1950-1980 period. We conclude with observations regarding the use of these procedures in future research.
... At a predictive level, they defend that these low density spaces will at least maintain their strength, although not exclusively. In general they have been characterized as defendants of the future of rural spaces, either as renaissance [34] or as the end of the loss of their population [39,40]. Nevertheless, this prognosis has lost prestige in recent years. ...
... It is not surprising to find counterurban theoreticians incorporating their assumptions, for example, making low density places depend on preferences for life and work, located in turn in the structural changes that the economy was undergoing in general [36,40,43]. Some clearly post-fordist authors, in turn, agreed with the counterurban assumptions, describing some cities as the remains of an industrial age when transport costs were too high, supply chains were local, and people lived close to their workplace; in the postindustrial world of low communication costs, people and companies prefer to be located in cheaper places, less congested and with greater environmental quality. ...
... Nevertheless, these "crises" end up by being favourably solved for cities, predicting, in general, processes of reurbanization. Alternatively, the cyclical model is complemented with that of the theoreticians of transition (Figure 2(b)), with the difference that the latter do not consider urban rebirth as hegemonic, but rather find balance among all habitats [35,40,48,49]. ...
Article
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This paper reviews the existing analysis framework for territorial dynamics and urban growth and proposes a taxonomy of interpretive theories as well as a critical review. Specifically, the paper aims to provide four innovations to existing knowledge in this field as follows: firstly, a clear presentation of how the data of population growth of each habitat type have appeared and their academic interpretations; secondly, a reclassification of interpretative theories into three groups: the counterurban, the post-fordist, and the cyclical theories; thirdly, with the ultimate goal to analyze the suitability of interpretations to the reality, a taxonomic proposal of habitat categories being made; fourthly, the final one refering to the balance of the theoretical to the empirical reality, in light of the data currently available, using the considered methodologies. That balance allows collecting positive elements of each theory and pointing to the possibility of developing a theory of synthesis.
... do nuevas áreas urbanas 7 -los segundos recogen únicamente saldos positivos en las periferias, reclutan a sus efectivos en las ciudades centrales y, asimismo, constituyen la tercera fase del modelo. No obstante, también esta tiene un límite temporal, interpretado con argumentos que van desde el agotamiento de los efectivos demográficos desplazables (Lewis y Maund, 1976;Wardwell, 1977) hasta la irrupción de nuevas políticas estratégicas de ciudades que quieren recuperar habitantes, pasando por la propia 7 Desde el primer momento de la suburbanización, la generación de un hinterland entre la ciudad central y su periferia da lugar un nuevo concepto de espacio que denominamos área urbana. Esta se podría defi nir como el espacio creado por las dinámicas edifi catorias a lo largo del proceso de suburbanización, compuesto por la ciudad (compacta) central y sus periferias inmediatas, unidas en un continuum edifi catorio y manteniendo unos determinados niveles de densidad y contigüidad del espacio ocupado. ...
... A pesar de todos estos trabajos, génesis de la noción de transición territorial, no puede afi rmarse que exista un modelo o paradigma que la formule con claridad, en el que se indique cuáles son sus fases y qué parámetros la componen. La teoría existe, basada en una modelización latente, sin formulación ex-6 La tesis propuesta porWardwell (1977), similar a la esbozada por DeVries (1995), surge al analizar los intensos fl ujos migratorios contraurbanizadores que, en la década de los años setenta, parecían contrarrestar el histórico crecimiento de las gigantescas áreas urbanas de Estados Unidos. Según este autor, los territorios metropolitanos y no metropolitanos estaban destinados a alcanzar un balance migratorio nulo, es decir, un equilibrio pleno entre sus fl ujos emigratorios e inmigratorios. ...
Article
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By analyzing all the flows of rural exodus, urban concentration and urban deconcentration in a single comprehensive system, we can find settlement logics characteristic of each socioeconomic stage. This article attempts to synthesize these patterns, which lead to changes of prominence in territorial dynamics between different habitats and migratory typologies that occur over time. We conceptualize the resulting model as territorial transition. Although it has a theoretical link with important precedents, it can be considered an original contribution, since it has not previously been conceptualized in such detail. The narrative sequence has two parts. It begins by presenting the basis, the theoretical background and the stages of territorial transition, and continues by drawing a contrast with the observed reality of the Spanish case, analyzing in detail certain key specific features. In conclusion, we highlight that the formulation of this model may allow the interpretation of apparently confusing or conflicting phenomena of other international territorial systems.
... do nuevas áreas urbanas 7 -los segundos recogen únicamente saldos positivos en las periferias, reclutan a sus efectivos en las ciudades centrales y, asimismo, constituyen la tercera fase del modelo. No obstante, también esta tiene un límite temporal, interpretado con argumentos que van desde el agotamiento de los efectivos demográficos desplazables (Lewis y Maund, 1976;Wardwell, 1977) hasta la irrupción de nuevas políticas estratégicas de ciudades que quieren recuperar habitantes, pasando por la propia 7 Desde el primer momento de la suburbanización, la generación de un hinterland entre la ciudad central y su periferia da lugar un nuevo concepto de espacio que denominamos área urbana. Esta se podría defi nir como el espacio creado por las dinámicas edifi catorias a lo largo del proceso de suburbanización, compuesto por la ciudad (compacta) central y sus periferias inmediatas, unidas en un continuum edifi catorio y manteniendo unos determinados niveles de densidad y contigüidad del espacio ocupado. ...
... A pesar de todos estos trabajos, génesis de la noción de transición territorial, no puede afi rmarse que exista un modelo o paradigma que la formule con claridad, en el que se indique cuáles son sus fases y qué parámetros la componen. La teoría existe, basada en una modelización latente, sin formulación ex-6 La tesis propuesta porWardwell (1977), similar a la esbozada por DeVries (1995), surge al analizar los intensos fl ujos migratorios contraurbanizadores que, en la década de los años setenta, parecían contrarrestar el histórico crecimiento de las gigantescas áreas urbanas de Estados Unidos. Según este autor, los territorios metropolitanos y no metropolitanos estaban destinados a alcanzar un balance migratorio nulo, es decir, un equilibrio pleno entre sus fl ujos emigratorios e inmigratorios. ...
Article
Full-text available
Analizando conjuntamente los flujos de éxodo rural, concentración y desconcentración urbana, en un mismo sistema comprensivo, podemos encontrar unas lógicas de asentamiento características de cada momento socioeconómico. Este artículo es un intento por sintetizar esas pautas, que dan lugar a cambios de protagonismo en las dinámicas territoriales entre diferentes hábitats y en las tipologías migratorias que se suceden en el tiempo. Denominamos transición territorial al modelo resultante. Aunque tiene un entronque teórico con importantes precedentes, puede considerarse este como una aportación original, en tanto no existen formulaciones tan explícitas y detalladas del mismo. La secuencia expositiva tiene dos partes: se comienza presentando los fundamentos, antecedentes teóricos y fases de la transición territorial; continúa con un contraste con la realidad observada en el caso español, analizando en detalle algunas particularidades relevantes. Subrayamos, como conclusión, que la formulación de este modelo puede permitir la interpretación de fenómenos aparentemente confusos o contrapuestos de otros sistemas territoriales internacionales. // By analyzing all the flows of rural exodus, urban concentration and urban deconcentration in a single comprehensive system, we can find settlement logics characteristic of each socioeconomic stage. This article attempts to synthesize these patterns, which lead to changes of prominence in territorial dynamics between different habitats and migratory typologies that occur over time. We conceptualize the resulting model as territorial transition. Although it has a theoretical link with important precedents, it can be considered an original contribution, since it has not previously been conceptualized in such detail. The narrative sequence has two parts. It begins by presenting the basis, the theoretical background and the stages of territorial transition, and continues by drawing a contrast with the observed reality of the Spanish case, analyzing in detail certain key specific features. In conclusion, we highlight that the formulation of this model may allow the interpretation of apparently confusing or conflicting phenomena of other international territorial systems.
... During the 1980s, this perspective-commonly known as the dispersion (deconcentration) hypothesis-gained favor as proportionally more Americans moved from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas than vice versa. Wardwell (1977Wardwell ( , 1980 incomes, permits movers to choose places they prefer, rather than making decisions based solely on employment opportunities (Frey, 1987;Vias, 1998). Another way of stating this is that population growth precedes employment growth. ...
Article
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This paper examines population and employment growth in 219 emerging metropolitan (micropolitan) areas in the United States during the 1980s. In the spirit of Carlino and Mills (1987) and Clark and Murphy (1996), a partial adjustment model is used to examine the simultaneity of population and employment change, while controlling for the area-specific effects of amenities, fiscal conditions, and demographic composition, as well as for broad regional differences. The statistical evidence does not provide strong support for the simultaneity of micropolitan-area population and employment change during that decade.
... Migration rates among older people are generally low in comparison with other age groups, and particularly low when compared with younger individuals and households (Shaw, 1975:18). As a matter of fact, while the general population "turnaround" in migration has been adding to the population of many rural areas, those same rural areas continue to be net losers of young people (Wardwell, 1977). Older people, in contrast, when they choose to migrate at all, exhibit a propensity to move in a more rural direction. ...
Article
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A substantial portion of the current urban to rural migration stream consists of older persons who are choosing to live in countryside residences rather than in towns. This article draws on experiences of older migrants in order to explore some of the objective and subjective implications of residential choice. The data demonstrate that while older persons living in the countryside have less access to goods and services, they are more satisfied, more likely to perceive a net improvement over the former residence, and more attached to their residences. The research suggests that the circumstances of older migrants in rural areas must be closely monitored to determine what effects aging and living costs will have on subsequent residential mobility.
... Net migration losses of elderly people in metropolitan areas reveal more about the population structure and dynamics of large and small geographic areas than they do about the migration (stream) behavior of elderly people (Tucker, 1976;Wardwell, 1977). The sheer size of the older population in metropolitan areas guarantees a substantial number of movers to nonmetropolitan areas. ...
Article
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The 1975-1980 migration stream and net migration patterns of persons younger than 65 and 65 + were examined using data from the 1980 U.S. Census. Central cities and suburbs of metropolitan areas (SMSAs) and nonmetropolitan areas (NonSMSAs) were distinguished as origins and destinations. Most elderly movers relocated within a fairly limited geographic context and revealed strong preferences for metropolitan living. Suburban locations were more favored than central city locations. Net migration findings may provide misleading interpretations of older movers' locational choices. The migration patterns of the 65 + population were similar to those of the 45- to 64-year-old population but differed from those of the more youthful U.S. populations. These findings highlight migration streams of elderly movers who likely have experienced changed in their life styles or personal resources.
... As an extension of the scale of deconcentration to one favoring non metro over metro areas, the turnaround has been seen by many as one aspect of a new level in the overall process of population concentration, brought about by innovations in transportation and communication and changes in social and economic organization (Wardwell 1977(Wardwell , 1980Hawley 1978;Morrill 1979;Long 1985;Wilson 1988;Geyer and Kontuly 1993). Often emphasized with this approach is an increasing freedom to choose both residences and the location of employment, coupled with a preference for living and working in low density settings (Zuiches 1980;Fuguitt and Brown 1990;Kassarda 1995), An important element of this explanation has been our much-heralded transformation into an "information society" with the passing of remoteness, ...
Article
Over the past 30 years there have been three unanticipated shifts in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change and migration: the nonmetropolitan turnaround of the 1970s, with a migration balance favoring nonmetropolitan areas: the downturn of the early 1980s when nonmetropolitan areas lost net migrants as they did in the 1960s, and a more recent post-1990 recovery, with nonmetropolitan net migration rates once again above those of metropolitan areas. Partial explanations have been developed from the deconcentration and regional restructuring theoretical perspectives, but there is not yet consensus on how to explain this sequence of three migration changes since 1970. There is a need for a general review of these trends, particularly given the recency of the latest change. Such a review is attempted here. Annual net migration estimates are examined, considering the changing metropolitan-nonmetropolitan differential, and differences across geographic and functional county types in nonmetropolitan areas. Some differences stand out across the 24-year period, but the most notable finding is the widespread nature of the turnaround, the reversal, and the current recovery. There are differences between the present and the 1970s, but a trend toward greater retention and or acquisition of people in rural and small town areas is clear.
... This perspective gained particular favor during the early 1980s, after researchers revealed that for the first time in the industrialized history of the U.S., proportionately more Americans were moving from metro to nonmetro territory than vice versa. In a seminal work on this topic, Wardwell (1977; argues that this "migration turnaround" signaled a new era of social organization in advanced industrial societies, one characterized by a socio-economic "convergence" of metro and nonmetro space. According to Wardwell, recent technological developments and rising personal affluence are making space incidental to processes of social organization. ...
Article
Abstract The recent volatility of population redistribution trends in the U.S. continues to stimulate the demographic imagination. This research sheds new light on this subject through an examination of newly designated metro areas, which collectively constitute the largest source of national metropolitan growth in two of the past three decades. The results show that, over this period, new metro areas have consistently drawn the majority of migrants from inter-state exchanges with existing metro territory and that these exchanges are greatest from census divisions that achieved metropolitan dominance prior to 1920. Employment data also reveal a strong positive association between FIRE activities and net in-migration. Together, these findings suggest that traditional processes of urban concentration, while present, now play a secondary role in the development of new metro centers, thus challenging conventional theories of metropolitanization where we might most expect them to apply.
... In an early attempt to theorize the "puzzle" of the migration turnaround, Wardwell (1977Wardwell ( , 1980 argued that the U.S. had entered a new era of social and economic development--one characterized by the "convergence" of urban and rural space (see also Hawley and Mazie, 1981;Kasarda, 1980;J. Long, 1981). ...
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This paper uses a typology of local metropolitan development to examine population redistribution trends in the US over the past three decades. Theories of systemic maturation and urban life-cycles are discussed and evaluated. Analysis of population and inter-county migration data reveals that localised deconcentration has become an increasingly common sub-process of metropolitanisation, but that this sub-process cannot be fully explained by a life-cycle model of metropolitan development. More importantly, results indicate that metro-based migration varies signi® cantly with local patterns of metropolitanisation. The nature of this variation implies that declining metropolitan areas tend to redistribute migrants to relatively distant metropolitan and non-metropolitan territory in a manner consistent with extended processes of population decon- centration.
... Este texto ha servido para ilustrar una inédita fase de equilibrio territorial entre hábitats analizado por diferentes autores (Wardwell, 1977;Camarero, 1993). Al margen de que este nuevo estadio se explica por factores tan complejos como el de la emergencia de nuevas gobernanzas territoriales (García y Otero, 2012), hemos verificado en las páginas precedentes la principal hipótesis de investigación de esta comunicación: el flujo inmigratorio de procedencia extranjera ha tenido una importancia decisiva a la hora de consolidar una inédita fase de equilibrio territorial entre hábitats, la cual se traduce en una estabilización tanto de las tasas de crecimiento como del volumen de la población de los escenarios urbanos, periféricos y rurales de España. ...
Conference Paper
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La contribución al crecimiento demográfico de España de la población inmigrante extranjera, es una cuestión analizada en detalle durante los últimos años; sin embargo, son muchas las incógnitas que quedan por despejar, desde un punto de vista temporal, sobre la ubicación geográfica y la movilidad residencial de dicho colectivo. / Son variados los trabajos que analizan la actual dispersión residencial de los inmigrantes en los centros y coronas de las principales Áreas Urbanas españolas -especialmente la de Madrid y Barcelona-; asimismo, existen varios estudios de caso que centran su atención en la importancia de la llegada de habitantes foráneos a la hora de dinamizar áreas rurales antaño deprimidas (Pirineo Catalán, El Ejido, etc.). Sin embargo, son muy pocas las radiografías del territorio español que arrojen una visión de conjunto de la localización y movilidad residencial de esta población, y, lo que es más interesante, que ilustren tal visión a través de una tipología original de hábitats de nivel municipal (ciudad central, periferia suburbana y exurbana, urbano menor y rural) que supere la tradicional dicotomía urbano-no urbano de análisis. / Precisamente, la hipótesis de esta comunicación se centra en verificar, a partir del uso conjunto de la explotación de los microdatos de las EVRs para los años 2002-2011, de la creación de indicadores estadísticos ad hoc y de la ilustración vectorial de cambios residenciales -calculados a partir de un segundo cambio de domicilio-, hasta qué punto la particular distribución espacial del flujo inmigratorio de procedencia extranjera, ha contribuido a consolidar una inédita fase de equilibrio territorial entre hábitats. Este nuevo estadio, agravado por la actual coyuntura económica, esboza nuevos puntos de vista sobre el fenómeno inmigratorio e interesantes retos de ordenamiento y gobernanza territorial en España que se ilustran en las conclusiones de este trabajo.
... In the case of Spain, the rural exodus to the cities was particularly strong between 1950 and 1980 ( Figure 3). However, as Camarero (1993) points out, the net migration of rural municipalities since the mid 1980s tends to zero, balancing inputs with outputs, and therefore verifying the hypothesized equilibrium of Wardwell (1977). In the 1990s, the Spanish rural municipalities (population under 10,000) were already growing (García Sanz, 1997), a trend which is more evident in the new millennium. ...
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This paper presents some of the main conclusions which can be drawn from internal migration in Spain. We have a double objective: on the one hand, to present the volume of flows and, on the other, to interpret observed patterns within them. The data originates mainly from the Residential Variations Statistics (official Spanish register of residential changes). The hypotheses are classified with a criterion for completeness: considering all possible alternatives. The findings show that the urban-centripetal flow ceased to be significant in the 1980s. Although in the first decade of the 21st century, all habitats grew, thanks to foreign immigration, cities registered negative migratory balances. By contrast, for the first time, rural areas recorded a positive demographic balance. The counterurban theories are called into question in light of recent data and of the classification used. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2016.v7n3s1p192
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Section headings: Abstract. A study of small to medium sized urban areas. An assessment of definitions and data. Characteristics and significance of SAMS urban areas. Patterns and processes in SAMS urban areas growth. A classification of SAMS urban areas. Modelling growth and change. Conclusion. Appendices. Bibliography.
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Increased migration to the sunbelt and the metropolitan-nonmetropolitan “turnaround” represent departures from long-standing redistribution trends. Although these patterns have been examined from a number of perspectives, their consequences for individual metropolitan areas have not yet been brought to light. In the present study, stream-disaggregated data for the late 1950s and late 1960s are employed to assess the impact of recent migration on the sizes and compositions of white populations in thirty-one large metropolitan areas. Most large northern SMSAs have been experiencing the “new” migration patterns since the late 1950s. They have incurred net out-movements of whites to both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. In their exchanges with nonmetropolitan areas, however, they have managed to retain greater numbers of college graduates and professional workers. Southern and western SMSAs did not sustain losses to nonmetropolitan areas during either period. They did appear to gain both total and high status population as a result of interregional metropolitan redistribution.
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A 1983 survey of Texas homebuyers reveals a high degree of mismatch between their preferred and actual residences. Analysis indicates that the logit of fulfilling residential preference is largely determined by the type of area preferred and the occupation and age of the homebuyer. Mismatch is most common among homebuyers preferring a suburban location, less so for those preferring nonmetropolitan residences, and lowest among people preferring central cities. Occupation as a social structural variable also affects homebuyers ’ chance of fulfilling residential preference. Professionals are more likely to fulfill their residential preferences than persons in other occupations. Finally, younger persons suffer a higher degree of residential mismatch than older persons.
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Social and economic conditions have changed rapidly since the 1970s, making relocation to nonmetropolitan areas more feasible [Wardwell J.M. (1977) Rural Sociology42, 156–179; Zelinsky W. (1978) Demography15, 13–39]. Urban-rural migration to areas with outdoor recreation settings, universities and retirement facilities particularly, implies that life-style preferences or stage of life have led to the attraction to rural areas [Fuguitt G. and Zuiches J. (1975) Demography12, 491–504; Ritchey P.N. (1976) Explanations of migration. In Annual Review of Sociology (Vol. 2), Inkeles A. (ed.). Annual Reviews, Inc., Palo Alto]. During the years 1981–1983, a sample of recent in-migrants to the Gallatin Valley of Montana was drawn from new telephone listings. Interviews of these newcomers inquired why they had been attracted to the area, and the relative importance of quality-of-life as opposed to economic motivations in their decisions to relocate. Log-linear analyses indicated a strong association between respondents' reasons for relocating and their reasons for selecting the Gallatin Valley. Persons reporting non-job motives for out-migration, identified non-job considerations as their exclusive reasons for selecting the Gallatin Valley. Persons who moved for job-related reasons, indicated that such reasons were of primary consideration in their selection of the Gallatin Valley, although non-job motives played a secondary role. There was also an association between respondents' socio-economic status (SES) and their reasons for relocating. Families of higher SES identified both economic and quality-of-life factors as major reasons for selecting the Gallatin Valley, while lower SES families mentioned only quality-of-life variables. These findings suggest the importance of economic motivations and of quality-of-life considerations, especially for lower SES migrants. This may signal an emerging ethic dictated by a search primarily for life quality, and in which economic security is only an incidental consideration for some migrants.
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Non-metropolitan population growth has received extensive consideration since it was first observed in the United States nearly 30 years ago. The emergence, weakening and selective reappearance of this phenomenon across much of the developed world has spawned a large body of applied and academic literature. Many terms and phrases have been coined to describe this redistribution of population within the settlement system. The word “counterurbanization” is one that has received on-going attention in the literature. Although its verification, explanation and interpretation have occupied many research agendas, lack of consistency in definition hinders comparability. In this paper, I argue that the word counterurbanization is too broad to cover its depth of meaning. In its place, I propose adoption of three concepts to describe the changing spatial redistribution of population: counterurban, counterurbanizing, and counterurbanization. A framework integrating these concepts is offered, and templates for future study described. This exercise is timely given the recent release of census data.
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This dissertation proposes a new, synthesized perspective for explaining the “Nonmetropolitan Turnaround” in the 1970s and 1990s. By studying the definition of urbanization carefully, using the human ecological perspective, many processes happening during the “Nonmetropolitan Turnaround” in the 1970s and 1990s, such as suburbanization, deconcentration, and counterurbanization, can be understood as different forms of the urbanization processes. When the majority of the population was rural, the dominant pattern of urbanization was rural-urban migration. When the majority of the population became urban, the dominant urbanization pattern reversed to urbanrural migration because urban centers had reached beyond their optimal density and processes operated to reduce their density. This paper hypothesizes that the two “turnarounds” were simply the result of different aspects of urbanization complicated by metropolitan status reclassifications. The perspectives of suburbanization, counterurbanization and deconcentration are integrated into the urbanization perspective. Using migration flow data compiled by the Census Bureau from 1975 to 1980 and from 1995 to 2000, the summary analyses confirmed that the net migration due to the three forms of urbanization largely accounted for all of the net migrant flows. This dissertation further tested the validity of optimal density theory with net migration data and confirmed the utility of this perspective in predicting the direction of net migration.
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This paper explores the role of size of place residential preference in the evolution of the intention to move out of the present community using data from the March 1974 NORC Amalgam Survey. People who prefer to live in a community having different size or location characteristics than their present residence are five times more likely to intend to move than those who have attained their preferred type of residence. Within these two groups, however, the particular configuration of current and preferred residence has no significant effect on the likelihood of intending to move. This finding justifies the creation of a simple dichotomous variable, preference status, contrasting these two groups. Community satisfaction and preference status are highly interrelated and each has an independent effect on intentions to move. Moreover, the effect of preference status on mobility intentions is somewhat larger than that for community satisfaction, indicating that residential preference plays a significant role in the decision-making process regarding migration.
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This is a comparison of the 1950-1970 trends in population size of U.S. nonmetropolitan cities and villages among 26 homogeneous subregions. There are wide variations in the proportion of the nonmetropolitan population in incorporated places, and, though this proportion generally increased over the 1950-1970 period, decentralizing tendencies also are evident. There was most often a decline in the differential between the growth rate of incorporated places and of open country over the two decades. The positive association between initial size of place and growth, present in half of the subregions in the 1950s and indicative of population centralization, was found only in the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and Rocky Mountain subregions in the 1960s. There were regionally distinctive differences in all variables considered; most notably, the percent of places growing ranged 50 percentage points over the 26 subregions. The extent of subregional variation revealed by this analysis indicates how differences in physiography, climate, history, and economy continue to be reflected in settlement trends which are obscured when larger regional groupings are used.
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The spatial distribution and redistribution of population and economic activities is critically important to a nation’s life and future. Geographical separation and interpenetration both constrain and facilitate social interaction, economic organization, institutional roles and capacities, and political life. Whether concern is with distribution among states or broad geographic regions, metropolitan or nonmetropolitan areas, central cities or suburbs within metropolises, where people live or work, or where social and economic activities are located, spatial distribution affects virtually every aspect of social, economic, and political life. Accordingly, nations have a legitimate interest in creating policies to influence their spatial organization. The President’s Commission on Population Growth and the American Future pointed out over two decades ago, however, that public policy responses to spatial distributional issues in the United States have been fragmented and problem-oriented. They have not embodied a comprehensive set of objectives that would contribute to overall national goals of economic efficiency, socioeconomic equity, community stability, environmental protection, and freedom of locational choice (Mazie 1972). As Alonso (1972) stressed at that time, one of the reasons we lack a “national strategy of urbanization” is because we lack an adequate understanding of spatial distribution as a system. Moreover, he observed that this lack of systemic understanding has contributed to ineffective distribution policies as well as to nondistribution policies that have strong, unanticipated geographic results. We have learned much about the dynamics of spatial distribution since the commission submitted its report to President Nixon in 1972, but, for the most part, Alonso’s critique is still valid today.
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The recent reversal in migration trends in the United States is generating growth and urbanization in small towns and rural areas nationwide. Although boom towns resulting from energy-related developments in the West may be the extreme case, whatever is learned from studying them should be of use in developing human service program in other rural areas experiencing growth and change.
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Abstract In this paper, we examine the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of migration streams between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas for four different years over the period 1975–1993. During this period, there have been three shifts in the direction of net metro-nonmetro migration. Through nonmetro net in-migration, the “nonmetropolitan turnaround” of the 1970s reversed historical patterns of nonmetro loss of human resources, with gains and increased retention of the young and better-educated. The 1980s, however, again saw net-migration loss, including large shifts from gain to loss, especially among the young and better-educated and for workers in white collar occupations. In the 1990s, the overall pattern is again one of nonmetro net-migration gain or reduced loss, with the greatest increases among those higher status groups which experienced the greatest declines during the 1980s. The latest pattern is due largely to increased population retention, whereas previous research has shown the migration turnaround of the 1970s was due about equally to increasing retention and in-migration.
Conference Paper
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Los fenómenos de desconcentración urbana en Galicia, al margen de las múltiples matizaciones que se puedan hacer, han consolidado sistemas de asentamientos complejos y difusos cada vez más alejados de dicotomías conceptuales y lecturas fáciles del territorio habitado. Entremedias, el sentido de lo rural en esta Comunidad Autónoma, identificado históricamente como fuente de actividad agropecuaria y mano de obra, se ha fragmentado. Por un lado, el “metabolismo” expansivo de las regiones urbanas gallegas -como las de Vigo y A Coruña- ha consolidado en sus hinterlands espacios de un inédito dinamismo socioeconómico; por el otro, amplias zonas del interior de Ourense y Lugo siguen mostrando unos parámetros poblacionales regresivos y claramente contrapuestos a lo que se conoce como “renacimiento” del rural. Hacer un retrato sociológico de estos procesos, tratando de explicar sus causalidades, es el principal objetivo de la presente comunicación.
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Abstract During the past several decades, rural America has experienced turbulent demographic change. We examine rural age-specific migration data for 1950 to 1995 to ascertain whether the numerous economic, social, and technological factors buffeting nonmetropolitan America have altered migration patterns across age groups and types of counties. Both continuity and change are evident in the analysis. We find differentiation in the migration profiles of certain specialized types of rural counties, as well as temporal variability from decade to decade. No clear longitudinal trend in migration patterns is present, however. In fact, an underlying continuity in age-specific trends has endured through good times and bad.
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This paper uses OLS regression to analyze the relationships existing between occupation jobs and industry jobs in small southwestern U.S. towns. First, occupation employment in the representative town is estimated from its industry employment. Then the towns are classified into different specialties, including the following five types: diversified, government, manufacturing, mining, and service and trade. Type-specific regression estimates follow, showing how occupation employment differentially responds to industry employment in towns having different economic bases. Using previous results from the Arizona Community Data Set, both short-run (impact) and long-run (projection) occupation employment estimates are given for basic employment changes in a hypothetical community.
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