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Forest conservation, afforestation and reforestation in India: Implications for forest carbon stocks

July 2008
Current Science Vol. 95, No. 2 / 25(2)

Authors:

Rakesh Na Chaturvedi

Essar steel india limited hazira

Rajiv kumar Chaturvedi

Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani - Goa Campus

Indu K Murthy

Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy

This article presents an assessment of the implications of past and current forest conservation and regeneration policies and programmes for forest carbon sink in India. The area under forests, including part of the area afforested, is increasing and currently 67.83 mha of area is under forest cover. Assuming that the current trend continues, the area under forest cover is projected to reach 72 mha by 2030. Estimates of carbon stock in Indian forests in both soil and vegetation range from 8.58 to 9.57 GtC. The carbon stock in existing forests is projected to be nearly stable over the next 25 year period at 8.79 GtC. However, if the current rate of afforestation and reforestation is assumed to continue, the carbon stock could increase from 8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC by 2030 - an increase of 11%. The estimates made in this study assume that the current trend will continue and do not include forest degradation and loss of carbon stocks due to biomass extraction, fire, grazing and other disturbances.

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RESEARCH ARTICLES

CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 95, NO. 2, 25 JULY 2008

216

*For correspondence. (e-mail: ravi@ces.iisc.ernet.in)

Forest conservation, afforestation and

reforestation in India: Implications for

forest carbon stocks

N. H. Ravindranath1,*, Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi2 and Indu K. Murthy2

1Centre for Sustainable Technologies, and 2Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India

This article presents an assessment of the implications

of past and current forest conservation and regenera-

tion policies and programmes for forest carbon sink in

India. The area under forests, including part of the

area afforested, is increasing and currently 67.83 mha

of area is under forest cover. Assuming that the cur-

rent trend continues, the area under forest cover is

projected to reach 72 mha by 2030. Estimates of car-

bon stock in Indian forests in both soil and vegetation

range from 8.58 to 9.57 GtC. The carbon stock in ex-

isting forests is projected to be nearly stable over the

next 25 year period at 8.79 GtC. However, if the cur-

rent rate of afforestation and reforestation is assumed

to continue, the carbon stock could increase from

8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC by 2030 – an increase of

11%. The estimates made in this study assume that

the current trend will continue and do not include

forest degradation and loss of carbon stocks due to

biomass extraction, fire, grazing and other distur-

bances.

Keywords: Afforestation, carbon stocks, conservation,

reforestation.

INDIA is a large developing country known for its diverse

forest ecosystems and is also a mega-biodiversity country.

Forest ecosystems in India are critical for biodiversity,

watershed protection, and livelihoods of indigenous and

rural communities. The National Communication of the

Government of India to the UNFCCC has reported1 that

the forest sector is a marginal source of CO2 emissions.

India has formulated and implemented a number of poli-

cies and programmes aimed at forest and biodiversity

conservation, afforestation and reforestation. Further, India

has a goal2 to bring one-third of the geographic area un-

der forest and tree cover by 2012. All forest policies and

programmes have implications for carbon sink and forest

management. This article presents an assessment of the

implications of past and current forest conservation and

regeneration policies and programmes for forest carbon

sink in India. It also estimates the carbon stocks under

current trend scenario for the existing forests as well as

new area brought under afforestation and reforestation for

the period 2006–30.

We have primarily relied on published data from the

Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF), Govern-

ment of India (GOI); Food and Agricultural Organization

of United Nations (FAO), and Forest Survey of India

(FSI). We have used the Comprehensive Mitigation Analy-

sis Process (COMAP) model for projecting carbon stock

estimates. The article is based only on past trends from

1980 to 2005 and uses the assumption – ‘if the current trend

continues’. We feel that such an assumption is well justi-

fied because, despite the increase in population and in-

dustrialization during 1980–2005, forest area in India not

only remained stable but has marginally increased. This

is due to favourable policies and initiatives pursued by

GOI. We expect that India will not only keep pursuing

aggressive policies of afforestation and forest conserva-

tion, but also go a step forward. A case in point is the

Prime Minister’s recently announced ‘6 mha greening

programme’. If the assumptions of continuation of cur-

rent rates of afforestation, forest conservation policies

and no significant degradation of forest carbon stocks are

changed, the future carbon stocks projected will also

change.

Area under forests

According to FSI, ‘all lands, more than one hectare in

area, with a tree canopy density of more than 10 per cent

are defined as Forest’. The total forest cover in India ac-

cording to the latest3 State of Forest Report 2003 is

67.83 mha and this constitutes 20.64% of the geographic

area. The distribution of area under very dense, dense and

open forest is given in Table 1. Dense forest dominates,

accounting for about half of the total forest cover. Tree

cover (which includes forests of less than 1 ha) is 9.99 mha

(3.04%). The total area under forest and tree cover is

77.82 mha, which is 23.68% of the geographic area (Table 1).

FAO4 defines forests as ‘Land spanning more than 0.5 ha

with trees higher than 5 m and a canopy cover of more

than 10%, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ’.

And other woodlands as ‘Land not classified as “Forest”,

spanning more than 0.5 ha; with trees higher than 5 m

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CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 95, NO. 2, 25 JULY 2008 217

and a canopy cover of 5–10 per cent, or trees able to

reach these thresholds in situ; or with a combined cover

of shrubs, bushes and trees above 10 per cent. Both of

these categories do not include the land that is predomi-

nantly under agricultural or urban land use’. According to

FAO, the area under forests and other wooded land in

India has increased from 63.93 mha in 1990 to 67.70 mha

in 2005. Thus FAO estimates do not significantly differ

from FSI estimates.

Trends in area under forest and tree cover

The FSI has been periodically estimating the forest cover

in India since 1987, using remote sensing techniques. The

forest cover reported5 for 1987 was 64.08 mha and ac-

cording to the latest assessment3 for 2003, the forest

cover is 67.83 mha. This indicates an increase in forest

cover of 3.75 mha over a period of 15 years (Figure 1). It

can be observed from Figure 1 that the forest cover in In-

dia has nearly stabilized and has been increasing margin-

ally over the years3,5–12. FSI has included the tree cover in

the 2001 and 2003 assessments3,6, in addition to forest

cover. The area under tree cover reported is also found to

be marginally increasing (Figure 1).

Afforestation and reforestation programmes

India has been implementing an aggressive afforestation

programme. The country initiated large-scale afforesta-

tion under the social forestry programme starting in the

Table 1. Status of forest cover in India3,4

Per cent

Tree crown class Area (mha) geographic area

Very dense forest (>70%) 5.13 1.56

Dense forest (40–70%) 33.93 10.32

Open forest (10–40%) 28.78 8.76

Mangroves 0.45 0.14

Total forest cover 67.83 20.64

Tree cover 9.99 3.04

Total 77.82 23.68

Forest cover according to FAO 67.7 –

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Forest and tree cover (Mha)

Forest cover Tree cover

Figure 1. Trends in area under forest and tree cover3,5–12.

early 1980s. Figure 2 shows the progress of afforestation

in India for the period 1951–2005. It can be seen from

Figure 2 that the cumulative area afforested in India dur-

ing the period 1980–2005 is about 34 mha, at an average

annual rate2 of 1.32 mha2. This includes community wood-

lots, farm forestry, avenue plantations and agro-forestry.

Afforestation and reforestation in India are being carried

out under various programmes, namely social forestry

initiated in the early 1980s, Joint Forest Management

Programme initiated in 1990, afforestation under National

Afforestation and Eco-development Board (NAEB) pro-

grammes since 1992, and private farmer and industry-

initiated plantation forestry.

Future trends in area under forests and

afforestation

The projections for area under forest as well as area affor-

ested are based on current trends or what is generally

termed the ‘current trend scenario’. The current trend sce-

nario is based on the past, current and short-term affore-

station plans. The projections exclude the tree cover

component as reported in 2001 and 2003 by the FSI.

Projections for area under forest cover based on

current trend scenario

The forest cover is projected up to 2030, based on the

past and current trends, as reported by the periodic re-

Figure 2. Cumulative area afforested2 during 1951–2005.

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

Fores t cov er (Mha )

Figure 3. Projected trend in forest cover under the current trend sce-

nario3,5–12.

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CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 95, NO. 2, 25 JULY 2008

218

ports of the FSI. It can be observed from Figure 3 that the

forest cover will continue to increase all the way up to

2030. The forest cover is projected to reach 72.19 mha by

2030, assuming that the current trend scenario will con-

tinue.

Projected afforestation rates based on current

trends

The long-term average annual rate of afforestation over

the period 1980–2005 is 1.32 mha. Assuming the average

rate2 of 1.32 mha for the period 2006–30, the total area

that would be afforested is 33 mha. The cumulative area

afforested would be 70.5 mha by 2030 (Figure 4). This

includes short- and long-rotation plantation forestry as

well as natural regeneration. It is important to note that

some of the afforested area, particularly short-rotation

plantations, is likely to be periodically harvested and re-

planted or left for coppice regrowth.

Carbon stocks in forests

The forest sector could be a source or a sink of carbon.

Forest carbon stock includes biomass and soil carbon

pools. Biomass carbon can be further disaggregated into

aboveground and belowground biomass and dead organic

matter. Change in forest carbon stock between two time

periods is an indicator of the net emissions of CO2 from

the sector. Carbon stocks are estimated and projected for

the period 2005–30.

Methodology

The COMAP model13 is a set of versatile models with the

ability to analyse the mitigation potential as well as cost-

effectiveness of diverse activities such as forest conserva-

tion (e.g. Protected Areas and halting forest conversion),

Figure 4. Projected afforestation under the current trend scenario.

natural regeneration (with no logging) and afforesta-

tion/reforestation through plantation forestry, including

short- as well as long-rotation forestry (with logging or har-

vesting).

Assessment of mitigation activities using the COMAP

model would involve consideration of the following:

• Land availability for different mitigation activities

during different years.

• Wood product demand and supply to ensure that socio-

economic demands are met with and real additional

mitigation is feasible.

• Developing a baseline or current trend scenario to enable

estimation of incremental carbon mitigation.

• Developing a mitigation scenario incorporating the

extent of area to be covered for meeting different

goals.

Data required for assessing different activities: The data

required for assessing the mitigation potential of affore-

station and reforestation include land area-related infor-

mation, baseline carbon density (tC/ha) in above-ground

vegetation and soil, rotation period, above-ground woody

biomass accumulation rate (tC/ha/yr), soil carbon en-

hancement rate (tC/ha/yr), and cost and benefit flows. In-

put data were obtained from the literature14,15.

Outputs of the COMAP model: These include mitiga-

tion potential estimates per ha and aggregate tonnes of

carbon benefit, annual carbon stocks, carbon stocks for a

given year such as 2008 and 2012 and cumulative over a

period, and cost-effectiveness parameters.

Carbon stock estimates

Estimates for the forest carbon stocks, including biomass

and soil carbon from previous studies are given in Figure

5. According to an earlier estimate by Richards and Flint16,

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1880

1980

1986

1994

2005

Carbon stock (MtC)

Biomass carbon Soil carbon

Figure 5. Trends in carbon stock estimates for Indian forests15–19.

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CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 95, NO. 2, 25 JULY 2008 219

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Carbon stock (MtC)

Fores t Short rotation Lon g r ot ati on Natural regeneration

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Carbon stock (MtC

)

Soil c arb on Biomass carbon

Figure 6. Projected forest carbon stocks. a, Under the current trend scenario for existing forests and area afforested (short- and

long-rotation and natural regeneration). b, According to biomass and soil carbon.

the biomass carbon stock in Indian forests was 7.94 MtC

during 1880. This study does not provide soil carbon esti-

mates. Further estimates by the same authors for 1980

showed that forest biomass carbon stock had declined by

nearly half over a period of 100 years. Estimates17–19 of

forest carbon stock, including biomass and soil carbon for

the year 1986, are in the range 8.58–9.57 GtC. According

to a latest estimate by FAO4, total forest carbon stock in

India is 10.01 GtC. Thus, the carbon stocks in Indian forests

have not declined, and in fact seem to have increased,

over a period of 20 years (1986–2005). Forest soil carbon

accounts for over 50% of the total forest carbon stock.

Carbon stock projections under current trend

scenario

Carbon stock projections for the existing forests as well

as new area brought under afforestation and reforestation

for the current trend scenario are made for the period

2006–30. The carbon stock projections are made using

the COMAP model. The forest cover data were obtained

from the projections made using the FSI area trends (Fig-

ure 3) and afforestation rates were obtained from the past

trends (average annual rate of 1.32 mha). The biomass

and soil carbon stock and growth rates were obtained from

published literature14,15. The afforestation rate of 1.32 mha/

annum was allocated to short- and long-rotation and natu-

ral regeneration at 63.7, 32.2 and 4.1% respectively,

based on the previous years’ trend12.

The carbon stock projections for the period 2006–30

are given in Figure 6. The carbon stock in the existing for-

ests is projected to be nearly stable over the 25-year pe-

riod at 8.79 GtC (Figure 6 a). When afforestation and

reforestation is included, the carbon stock is projected to

increase from 8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC by 2030,

about 11% increase (Figure 6 a). It is important to note

that COMAP model accounts for harvests and the result-

ing emissions. Thus, Indian forests will be a net sink over

the next 25 years. Figure 6 b shows the dominance of soil

carbon in the total forest carbon stock.

Factors contributing to stabilization of carbon

stocks in Indian forests

India is one of the few countries where deforestation rate

has been reduced and regulated and forest cover nearly

stabilized, unlike most other tropical countries. Further,

the projections of carbon stocks for the period 2006–30

showed that the carbon stock will increase. Thus, it is

important to understand the likely factors contributing to

the observed and projected stabilization of forest cover as

well as forest carbon stocks in India. The factors include

legislations, forest conservation and afforestation pro-

grammes, and community awareness and participation.

Forest Conservation Act, 1980

This Act is one of the most effective legislations contrib-

uting to reduction in deforestation. This was enacted to

reduce indiscriminate diversion of forest land for non-

forestry purposes, and to help regulate and control the re-

corded forest land-use changes.

Compensatory afforestation

According to Forest Conservation Act, 1980, when after

careful consideration forest land is released for any infra-

structure projects, it is mandatory for compensatory plan-

tations to be raised on an equivalent non-forested land or

equal to double the area on degraded forestland.

Wildlife parks and protected area

In India, 15.6 mha is Protected Area, where all human in-

tervention or extraction is banned.

Afforestation

India has been implementing large-scale afforestation/

reforestation since 1980 under social forestry, Joint Forest

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220

Management, silvi-pasture, farm forestry and agro-forestry

programmes, covering over 30 mha. This may have reduced

pressure on the forests.

National Forest Policy, 1988

It envisages people’s participation in the development and

protection of forests. The basic objective of this policy is

to maintain environmental stability through preservation

of forests as a natural heritage.

Joint Forest Management (JFM), 1990

The Forest Policy 1988 set the stage for participatory forest

management in India. The JFM programme recognized

the rights of the protecting communities over forest lands.

The local communities and the Forest Department jointly

plan and implement forest regeneration programmes and

the communities are rewarded for their efforts in protection

and management. The total area covered under the JFM

programme is over 15 mha. This has enabled protection

of existing forests, regeneration of degraded forests and

raising of forest plantations, potentially contributing to

conservation of existing forests and carbon stocks.

Significance of stabilization of forest carbon

stocks in India

India is one of the few countries in the world, particularly

among the tropical countries, where carbon stock in forests

has stabilized or is projected to increase. This has impli-

cations for reducing the carbon emissions from forest sector,

potentially contributing to stabilization of CO2 concentra-

tion in the atmosphere. This Indian achievement is sig-

nificant due to the following.

High population density and low per capita

forest area

India is a large developing country with a population

density of 363 persons/km2. Even more significantly, the

forest area per capita is only 0.06 ha, compared to the world

average of 0.62 ha/capita and Asian average of 0.15 ha/

capita. A comparison of key developing countries and

Western European countries4 is provided in Table 2. For-

ests and wooded land area per 1000 population in Germany

and France is nearly two and five times that of India.

Similarly, forest and wooded land in other major develop-

ing countries such as Brazil, China and Indonesia are also

higher by 3 to 40 times, as compared to India.

Low deforestation rate compared to other

developing countries

According to the Global Forest Resources Assessment4,

countries such as India and China are experiencing an in-

crease in forest area since 1990 (Table 3). However, majo-

rity of the other tropical countries with large area under

forests are experiencing deforestation on a significant

scale since 1990 (Table 3). Majority of the countries (42–

65%) are experiencing reduction in forest area or net de-

forestation4 (Table 4).

High dependence of human population on forests

In India, nearly 196,000 villages are in the forests or on the

forest fringes. Fuelwood is a dominant source of cooking

energy for the rural population with forests contributing

significantly to this. Apart from fuelwood, village commu-

nities depend on forests for small timber, bamboo and non-

timber forest products.

High livestock density

India accounts for 2.3% of the world’s geographic area,

but accounts for 15% of the global livestock population.

The cattle (cows, bullocks and buffaloes) population den-

sity is nearly one per hectare. When sheep and goats are

included along with cattle, the livestock population den-

sity further increases to 1.5 per hectare. However, if only

forest land is considered, the livestock density is 7 per

hectare, which is among the highest in the world.

Table 2. Comparison of total forest area and forest area/1000 population4

Total area under Forest and wooded

Population Forest area Other wooded forest and wooded land (ha/1000

Country (million) (‘000 ha) land (‘000 ha) land (‘000 ha) population)

India 1079 67,701 4110 71,811 66

China 1326 197,290 87,615 284,905 215

Brazil 178 477,698 0 477,698 2673

Indonesia 217 88,495 0 88,495 406

Germany 82 11,076 0 11,076 134

United Kingdom 59 2845 20 2865 48

France 59 15,554 1708 17,262 287

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CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 95, NO. 2, 25 JULY 2008 221

Table 3. Comparison of forest area change and deforestation (in ‘000 ha) in other major developing countries4

Net annual change in Area under forest Net annual change in

forest area (‘000 ha) (‘000 ha) forest area (‘000 ha)

Key developing

Region 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2005 countries 1990 2000 2005 1990–2000 2000–2005

Asia –792 1003 China 157,141 177,001 197,290 1986 4058

India 63,939 67,554 67,701 362 29

Indonesia 116,567 97,852 88,495 –1872 –1871

Malaysia 22,376 21,591 20,890 –78 –140

Philippines 10,574 7949 7162 –262 –157

Africa –4375 –4040 Sudan 76,381 70,491 67,546 –589 –589

Zambia 49,124 44,676 42,452 –445 –445

UR Tanzania 41,441 37,318 35,257 –412 –412

Nigeria 17,234 13,137 11,089 –410 –410

South Africa 9203 9203 9203 0 0

South America –3802 –4251 Brazil 520,027 493,213 477,698 –2681 –3103

Argentina 35,262 33,770 33,021 –149 –150

Mexico 69,016 65,540 64,238 –348 –260

Peru 70,156 69,213 68,742 –94 –94

Columbia 61,439 60,963 60,728 –48 –47

Table 4. Countries with positive, negative and zero or marginal annual rate of change in forest area4

Countries with negative Countries with positive Countries with zero net Countries with no

Total number rate of net annual change rate of net annual change annual change in forest significant net annual change

Region of countries in forest area (2000–05) in forest area (2000–05) area (2000–05) in forest area (2000–05)

Asia 48 20 13 12 3

Africa 58 38 8 8 4

South America 15 8 2 3 2 (not available)

Dominance of agrarian economy

Rural areas in India are characterized by large depend-

ence of the population on land resources, particularly

cropland and forest land, leading to more human pressure

on land.

Implications of Indian forest conservation and

development programmes and policies for global

change

India is a large developing country with a high population

density and low forest area per capita. The livestock

population density is among the highest in the world. Fur-

ther, nearly 70% of the population residing in rural areas

depends on forest and other biomass resources for fuel-

wood, timber and non-timber forest products for its en-

ergy needs and livelihood. In such a socio-economic

scenario, one would have expected the forest area to decline,

leading to large emissions of CO2 from the forest sector.

The analysis of forest cover, afforestation and refores-

tation has shown that the forest cover has stabilized in the

past 15 years (64–67 mha). Projections under the current

trend scenario indicate that the forest cover is likely to

increase in the period 2006–30. Further, model-based

projections of carbon stocks in the Indian forest sector

show a likely increase (from 8.79 GtC in 2005 to 9.75 GtC

in 2030). This is a significant achievement for a develop-

ing country such as India, despite high human and live-

stock population density, high dependence of rural

communities on forests for biomass resources and low per

capita forest area. The factors contributing to the current

and projected trends of stable or increasing carbon stocks

in the forests are progressive and effective forest conser-

vation legislations, afforestation and reforestation pro-

grammes and community participation in forest protection,

regeneration and management.

The progressive conservation-oriented forest policies

and afforestation programmes are contributing to reduc-

tion in CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, stabilization of

carbon stocks in forests and conservation of biodiversity.

Thus, the Indian forest sector is projected to keep making

positive contributions to global change and sustainable

development. This projected estimate and conclusion ex-

cludes any potential decline in forest carbon stocks due to

forest conversion, forest degradation, biomass extraction,

fire, etc.

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CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 95, NO. 2, 25 JULY 2008

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1. Ministry of Environment and Forests, India’s Initial National

Communication to UNFCCC (NATCOM), New Delhi, 2004;

available at http://www.natcomindia.org/natcomreport.htm

2. http://envfor.nic.in/nfap/, accessed on 11 July 2007.

3. Forest Survey of India, State of Forest Report 2003, Ministry of