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Are non-poor households always less vulnerable? The case of households exposed to protracted civil war in Southern Sudan

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Abstract

Civil wars in Africa are now the leading contributory cause of vulnerability of rural communities. Understanding vulnerability during civil war is critical for humanitarian response and post-conflict rehabilitation planning. The lack of understanding of vulnerability has led existing studies to make sweeping generalizations, either by equating the dynamics of vulnerability during civil wars with vulnerability in other risk events, or by projecting people in the 'war zones' as unable to cope and subsequently becoming vulnerable. This paper is an attempt to gain a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics of vulnerability during protracted civil war. It shows that during civil war the non-poor are not necessarily less vulnerable than poor households. The idea that people caught up in civil war are all vulnerable is not supported by the findings of this paper. It shows that the 'standard' pattern of vulnerability to drought is similar to that during exogenous counter-insurgency warfare, while a different pattern of vulnerability to endogenous shocks is identified.

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Thesis
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The analysis of censored failure times is considered. It is assumed that on each individual are available values of one or more explanatory variables. The hazard function (age‐specific failure rate) is taken to be a function of the explanatory variables and unknown regression coefficients multiplied by an arbitrary and unknown function of time. A conditional likelihood is obtained, leading to inferences about the unknown regression coefficients. Some generalizations are outlined.
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Summaries This article attempts to synthesize a coherent analysis of the ways in which warfare in Africa has changed since the end of the Cold War. Strategies used by governments to combat insurgencies and counter the threat of military coups d'etat are assessed, contrasting the centralized military machine of the former Ethiopian government with the policy of fragmenting military authority pursued by President Mobutu of Zaire. The economic decline of African governments and the decline of external patronage of both governments and rebel movements has led to important structural changes that compel military structures to seek to extract resources from local populations, humanitarian aid programmes, and control of commerce. This leads to much more decentralized, locally-specific forms of military organization. The article finally deals with innovations in military doctrine in Africa, specifically the way in which counter-insurgency and destabilization strategies have been adapted and developed, and the use of children as combat troops.
Article
War is the major cause of famine in Africa. Wars cause famine in three major ways: (1) the direct destruction of battle, and the consumption of resources, including food, by armies; (2) famine is a weapon of war, particularly during sieges and for counterinsurgency purposes - strategies such as population relocation and restrictions on movement and trade are tantamount to creating famine in many African countries; (3) in countries such as Somalia, state structures and warlords sustain themselves by predating on the poor, creating famine.
Article
Famines can result from the conscious exercise of power in pursuit of gain or advantage by the politically strong. This article is an attempt to analyse the process of political survival in the context of permanent emergency. Through examples of local asset transfer, and indicating how this process articulates with a wider regional parallel economy, the paper offers an analysis of political survival in the arc of crisis that runs from Sudan through southern Ethiopia to Somalia. The role of donors and NGOs is examined in terms of how they relate to the weak and the strong within the asset transfer economy. Donors are seen to have supported the strong whilst the position of NGOs is more contradictory. Although programme measures to protect assets have been developed, and the disjuncture between the rules of sovereignty and the protection of human rights has been highlighted, these measures have essentially failed. A review of trends since the end of the Cold War suggests that the chances of preventing the further consolidation of a transfer economy within the region are negligible. The position of those who gain from such a destructive process seems assured. -from Author
Article
Vulnerability to famine has been generally explained by reference to failures of production and to failures of exchange, but neither is adequate to explain key aspects of the vulnerability of rural people to famine. Some of these problems are resolved by an analysis of the status and trends in household assets - investments and stocks of food and of value, and claims households and communities can exert on others, including the state. Taken together with production and exchange issues, the analysis points to better policies to reduce vulnerability. -Author
Book
Both livelihoods and diversity have become popular topics in development studies. The livelihood concept offers a more complete picture of the complexities of making a living in rural areas of low income countries than terms formerly considered adequate, such as subsistence, incomes, or employment. Diversity recognizes that people manage by doing many different things rather than just one or a few things. This book sets out the rural livelihoods approach within the larger context of past and current themes in rural development. It adopts diversity as its principal theme and explores the implications of diverse rural livelihoods for ideas about poverty, agriculture, environment, gender, and macroeconomic policy. It also considers appropriate methods for gaining quick and effective knowledge about the livelihoods of the rural poor for project and policy purposes.
Book
Available in OSO: http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/oso/public/content/economicsfinance/0198281935/toc.html
Article
Identifying what the poor have, rather than what they do not have, focuses on their assets. This paper contributes to the extensive vulnerability/assets literature, by categorizing the assets of the urban poor in terms of an “asset vulnerability framework.” These include both tangible assets, such as labor and human capital, less familiar productive assets, such as housing, as well as intangible assets, such as household relations and social capital. Results from a recent urban study show that the poor are managers of complex asset portfolios, and illustrate how asset management affects household poverty and vulnerability. Translated into operational practice this framework facilitates interventions promoting opportunities, as well as removing obstacles, to ensure the urban poor use their assets productively.
Article
Which socio-economic groups are most vulnerable to welfare declines during a macroeconomic shock? After clarifying the difference between poverty and vulnerability, this paper presents an analytical framework and applies it to panel data from Peru. Major findings are: (1) Households with better educated heads are less vulnerable; (2) Female headed households are no more vulnerable than male headed households; (3) Households with more children are more vulnerable; (4) Transfer networks that assist the poor in relatively stable periods do not protect them during a major shock, unless they originate from outside Peru; and (5) Peru's social security program is targeted neither to vulnerable nor to poor households, but other transfer programs are better targeted.
Article
This article examines the links between militarised violence and social capital (trans)formation. It first maps out emerging theoretical and policy debates on social capital and violent conflict and questions a number of the assumptions underpinning these debates. This is followed by an empirical analysis of several war-affected communities in Sri Lanka. The case studies illustrate that the links between militarised violence and social capital are complex, dynamic and context specific. It is argued that social capital cannot be understood in isolation from political and economic processes, and the belief that violent conflict inevitably erodes social capital is questioned. Finally, the implications for external agencies are highlighted. Rather than focusing on engineering social capital, external agencies need to focus on understanding better the preconditions for social capital formation and how they can contribute to the creation of an enabling environment. This requires as a starting-point a rigorous analysis of political and economic processes.
Article
This paper investigates whether monetary and nonmonetary indicators tell the same story about chronic poverty using a unique panel data from Vietnam in the 1990s. Defining chronic poverty as occurring when an individual is monetarily poor, stunted, malnourished or out of school in both waves of the panel, the overlap and correlation between subgroups of the chronically poor are shown to be modest. Some, but not all, nonmonetary indicators are more persistent and complement monetary indicators of chronic poverty. Taking account of the multiple dimensions of chronic poverty cannot be a simple additive exercise.
Famine in the Twentieth Century. IDS Working Paper No. 105. Institute of Devel-opment Studies
  • S Devereux
Devereux, S. (2000) Famine in the Twentieth Century. IDS Working Paper No. 105. Institute of Devel-opment Studies, Brighton.
Vulnerability: how the poor cope
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Chambers, R. (1989) 'Vulnerability: how the poor cope'. IDS Bulletin. 20 (2). pp. 1–7.
Being Poor and Becoming Poor: Poverty Status and Poverty Transi-tions in Rural Pakistan. IDS Working Paper No. 79. Institute of Development StudiesThe perils of measuring poverty: identifying the " poor " in rural Ethiopia'. Oxford Development Studies
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Baulch, B. and N. McCulloch (1998) Being Poor and Becoming Poor: Poverty Status and Poverty Transi-tions in Rural Pakistan. IDS Working Paper No. 79. Institute of Development Studies, Brighton. Bevan, P. and S. Joireman (1997) 'The perils of measuring poverty: identifying the " poor " in rural Ethiopia'. Oxford Development Studies. 25 (3). pp. 315–43.
Nutrition Assessment in Southern Sudan Famine in Africa: Causes, Responses, and Prevention Dynamic Risk Management and the Poor. African Region Human Development Series No. 21961. The World Bank Sudan: Stabilisation and Reconstruction; Country Economic Memorandum
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UNICEF/OLS (1998) Nutrition Assessment in Southern Sudan, June 1998. UNICEF/Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS), Nairobi. von Braun, J., T. Teklu and P. Webb (1998) Famine in Africa: Causes, Responses, and Prevention. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. World Bank (2001) Dynamic Risk Management and the Poor. African Region Human Development Series No. 21961. The World Bank, Washington DC. World Bank (2003) Sudan: Stabilisation and Reconstruction; Country Economic Memorandum. Report No. 24620-SU. The World Bank, Washington DC.
The intrafamily distribution of hunger in South Asia The Political Economy of Hunger: Selected Essays
  • B Harris
Harris, B. (1995) 'The intrafamily distribution of hunger in South Asia'. In J. Dreze, A.K. Sen and A. Hussain (eds.) The Political Economy of Hunger: Selected Essays. Clarendon Press, Oxford.
An Asset-Based Approach to Social Risk Management: A Conceptual Frame-work. Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 9926. The World Bank
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Siegel, P. and J. Alwang (1999) An Asset-Based Approach to Social Risk Management: A Conceptual Frame-work. Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 9926. The World Bank, Washington DC.
Confronting civil war: a comparative study of household livelihood strategies in Southern Sudan during the 1990s PhD thesis Institute of Development Studies (IDS)
  • L Deng
  • Moser