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Measuring and Evaluating the Potential Addiction Risk of the Online Poker Game Texas Hold’em No Limit

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Articles
Measuring and Evaluating the Potential Addiction Risk
of the Online Poker Game Texas Hold’em No Limit
Reiner Clement, Anneke E. Goudriaan, Ruth J. van Holst, Sabrina Molinaro, Chantal Moersen,
Thomas Nilsson, Adrian Parke, Franz W. Peren, Luca Rebeggiani,
Heino Stoever, Wiltrud Terlau, and Miche
`le Wilhelm
MANAGEMENT SUMMARY
1. Online poker requires a considerable degree
of skill. In Germany, as in many other parts
of the EU, it is classified as a game of chance
and as such has hitherto been unregulated.
Despite this ban, the German online poker
market is the world’s second largest. Around
10% of online poker players worldwide are
from Germany, and nearly 1% of Internet
users in Germany play online poker. Due to
inconsistent frameworks in Germany and the
EU, there is a high degree of legal uncertainty
for players and providers.
2. The existing market is largely unregulated
and unchecked. If the German federal states
leave this market unregulated, people will
continue to be forced into a ‘‘grey area.
This may also result in pathological gamblers
not being identified, making it impossible to
check and prevent them from becoming
addicted. It is currently not possible to offer
effective player protection because of the pre-
vailing legal situation. The unchecked grey
area also facilitates and encourages illegal
money laundering in Germany and the EU.
3. The Assessment Tool to Measure and Evalu-
ate the Risk Potential of Gambling Products
(AsTERiG), developed by the Gambling
Scientific Forum (Wissenschaftliches Forum
Glu
¨cksspiel) on the initiative of the German
welfare lotteries Aktion Mensch (Action for
People) and the ARD Television Lottery, pro-
vides a fundamental quantitative evaluation
and assessment of the addiction potentials of
the online poker game Texas Hold’em No
Limit. This tool is currently the global leader
and is established in scientific and medical
practice.
4. Based on scores, AsTERiG measures how
great the risk potential of a chance or skill-
based game can be. In doing so, it also enables
a direct comparison to be drawn between the
addiction potentials of different gambling
products. Furthermore, the tool highlights
the specific risk potentials of individual
games of chance or games of skill. As a result,
it has established itself as an indispensable
tool at a legislative,case law, and administra-
tive level.
Reiner Clement is a professor of economics at the University of
Bonn-Rhein-Sieg. Anneke E. Goudriaan is a researcher at the
Amsterdam Institute for Addiction Research at the Academic
Medical Center, University of Amsterdam. Ruth J. van Holst
is a researcher at the Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition
and Behaviour, Centre for Cognitive Neuroimaging, at Rad-
boud University Nijmegen in the Netherlands. Sabrina Moli-
naro is head of the Epidemiology and Health Services
Research Department Institute for Clinical Physiology at
CNR-IFC, National Research Council Institute of Clinical
Physiology in Pisa, Italy. Chantal Moersen is with Charite
´in
Berlin, Germany. Thomas Nilsson is the founder of Spelinstitu-
tet in Sweden. Adrian Parke is a senior lecturer at the School of
Psychology, Faculty of Health and Social Sciences, at the Uni-
versity of Lincoln in the United Kingdom. Franz W. Peren is a
professor of business administration at the University of Bonn-
Rhein-Sieg in Sankt Augustin, Germany, and Chairman of the
Scientific Advisory Council of the International Research Insti-
tute for Gambling and Gaming in Bonn. Luca Rebeggiani is
with the Institute of Social Policy at Leibniz University in
Hannover, Germany. Heino Stoever is a professor of social sci-
entific addiction research at the University of Applied Sciences,
Faculty of Health and Social Work, in Frankfurt, Germany. Wil-
trud Terlau is a professor in the Department of Economics at the
University of Bonn-Rhein-Sieg in Sankt Augustin, Germany.
Miche
`le Wilhelm is a psychologist in Frankfurt, Germany.
GAMING LAW REVIEW AND ECONOMICS
Volume 16, Number 12, 2012
Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.
DOI: 10.1089/glre.2012.16125
713
5. An assessment of the online poker game
Texas Hold’em No Limit that has been empir-
ically validated by inter-disciplinary experts
classifies its potential addiction risk on a
scale of one to five as being medium, which
puts it in the same class as sports betting. A
further decisive factor is said to be operator
behavior, which might significantly influence
the addiction potential of games of chance and
games of skill. The study recommends carry-
ing out interdisciplinary research at the Euro-
pean level into this causality as well.
1. INTRODUCTION
The Internet promotes offering online games
of chance globally.
1
A growing number of EU
countries are currently preparing for the controlled
opening of their markets to online gambling. At the
same time, the markets are to be subjected to state reg-
ulation in order to channel people’s potential compul-
sion to gamble and limit the consequential social costs.
Online poker is a mixed game that brings together
elements of both a game of chance and a game of
skill.
2
In Germany, as well as in many areas of the
EU, the game has hitherto been unregulated—that
is, not licensed or allowed by law;
3
however, in
spite of the ban, the market for online poker has de-
veloped dynamically in the majority of EU states.
4
The German online poker market, for example, is
the world’s second largest; about 10% of all online
poker players are from Germany, and nearly 1% of
Internet users in Germany play online poker.
5
The existing market is thus largely unregulated
and unchecked. If German federal states were to
leave this market unregulated, their citizens would
continue to be forced into a grey area. This could re-
sult in pathological gamblers not being identified,
therefore making it impossible to intervene and pre-
vent them from becoming addicted. It is currently
not possible to offer effective player protection be-
cause of the prevailing legal situation. In addition,
the uncontrolled grey area may encourage illegal
money laundering.
The aim of this study and further research work
is to:
1. Measure and evaluate the potential addiction
risk of online poker based on the version
Texas Hold’em No Limit.
2. Structure the social framework of this game in
the best way possible to actively and effec-
tively protect players.
2. TEXAS HOLD’EM
Texas Hold’em (No Limit) is the world’s single
most played and popular version of poker. An online
glossary of the game’s terms is available here:
<http://www.pokerworld24.org/de/poker_glossar >
.
All providers offer extensive information on the
rules, game versions, and game strategies, includ-
ing:
- PokerStars
6
- Full Tilt Poker
7
- Everest Poker
8
- IPN (Boss Media)
9
- Cake Poker
10
- iPoker Network
11
- PartyPoker
12
- bwin
13
The rules of Texas Hold’em poker are relatively
easy to learn compared to those of other versions
of poker. However, experts agree that the No
1
Cf. The Interactive Gambling Report provides an overview;
<http://www.igamingbusiness.com/content/interactive-gambling-
report >.
2
Cf. W. Hambach, M. Hettich, and T. Kruis, Verabschiedet sich
Poker aus dem Gluecksspielrecht? Eine Besprechung der
aktuellen verwaltungs- und strafrechtlichen Rechtslage zur
Pokervariante Texas Hold’em,in Medien und Recht—
International Edition 41–50 (2009).
3
Id. at ch. 2.
4
Id. at ch. 3.
5
Cf.I. Fiedler and A. C. Wilcke, Der Markt fuer Online-
poker. Spielerherkunft und Spielerverhalten (Norder-
stedt 2011).
6
<http://www.pokerstars.com/de/ >.
7
<http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/de/ >.
8
<http://www.everestpoker.com/de >.
9
<http://www.ipnpoker.com/ipn_poker_rooms/german_partners/
area-209.html>. The International Poker Network (IPN) is a net-
work of poker rooms comprised of providers from the sports
betting sector, among others.
10
<http://cakepoker.eu/de/Default.aspx >.
11
<http://www.pokersites.com/de/netzwerke/ipoker >.
12
<http://de.partypoker.com/ >.
13
<https://poker.bwin.com/de/poker.aspx?content =texashold
em >.
714 CLEMENT ET AL.
Limit version in particular is a strategic game, with
many tactical
14
and psychological elements.
15
That
is why a range of Internet sites, software programs,
and books exist that not only deal with the rules, but
also with the strategic options available during the
course of the game. This fact alone suggests that the
game isn’t just a game of chance, but also one of skill.
The question of whether (online) poker is a game
of chance or skill is very important with regard to
how the game is regulated:
Whether Texas Hold’em is now a game of
chance or skill is of key importance for a fur-
ther legal evaluation. Both Para 284 of the
StGB (the German penal code) as well as
Para 3(1) of the Glu
¨cksspielstaatsvertrag
(Glu
¨StV—Interstate Treaty on Gambling)
consider it a game of chance.
16
In the case of a game of skill, the outcome is not
mainly dependent on chance, but rather on skill
(Figure 1).
Conceptually, a distinction is made between
games of chance and games of skill, as to whether
the outcome (winning or losing) is essentially deter-
mined by the individual player’s abilities, knowl-
edge, or degree of attention (game of skill); or
whether it is purely and essentially dependent on
chance (game of chance).
17
Texas Hold’em should be classified as a mixed
game. The key ‘‘chance’’ factor is how the cards
are dealt. However, the game of poker cannot be re-
duced to this chance factor. For a game to not just or
mainly depend on chance, it is essential for it to be
possible to learn how to play the game. A player can
then acquire an adequate level of skill by practicing.
Under case law, the key skills in this respect are,
above all, mental and physical skills (e.g., good
memory capacity and quick power of deduction),
a command of the rules of the game, as well as
the level of practice and attention of the players.
18
As an example, mention must be made of the strate-
gic gaming options, which are particularly wide-
ranging in Texas Hold’em No Limit poker. Over
100 books highlight strategic options relating to:
- number of players involved in the current
betting round
19
- player types
20
- table image
21
- position
22
- blinds and stacks
23
- pot odds
24
- betting actions: call, bet, raise or fold
25
In his dissertation, after evaluating studies and
theoretical essays on skill factors and strategies,
Wagner comes to the conclusion ‘‘that at least the
most frequently played versions of the card game
poker must clearly be classified as games of skill
owing to the dominant skill elements.
26
FIG. 1. Games of chance and games of skill. I. Fiedler, Das
Gefaehrdungspotential von Gluecks- und Geschicklichkeitss-
pielen—Soziale Kosten und rechtspolitische Empfehlungen
(Norderstedt 2008).
14
See, e.g., <http://www.poker-institut.org/strategien/ >.
15
On the role of psychology in poker, see, e.g., <http://www
.pokerfieber.com/poker-strategie/psychologie/rolle-psychologie/ >.
16
W. Hambach, M. Hettich, and T. Kruis, supra note 2, at 42.
17
Cf. B. Kretschmer, Poker—Ein Gluecksspiel?,Zeitschrift
fu
¨r Wett- und Glu
¨cksspielrecht 93, 97 (Apr. 2007).
18
Cf. W. Hambach, M. Hettich, T. Kruis, supra note 2, at 43.
19
The greater the number of players, the better the hand must be
to win. As the number of players increases, the probability of
having the best hand at the table decreases.
20
E.g., dividing players according to their willingness to take
risks.
21
‘Table image’’ describes the image a player represents to
opponents at his table. It is possible to influence this through
behavior.
22
The ‘‘position’’ determines how much information someone
has before he makes his play, which influences his behavior
accordingly.
23
This takes the proportion of the initial stakes to the individual
players’ remaining amount of chips (stacks) into account. The
lower the number of stacks in relation to the blinds, the more
a player is under pressure.
24
‘Pot odds’’ is the relationship between the size of the pot to be
won and the stake to be placed. This must be compared to the
probability of winning, which is determined by the outs—i.e.,
the number of potential remaining cards that are yet to be
shown in the individual dealing phases.
25
See the overview in W. Hambach, M. Hettich, and T. Kruis,
supra note 2, at 43.
26
Cf. R. Wagner, Die Praktikabilitaet des Oesterreichischen
Gluecksspielbegriffs am Beispiel des Kartenspiels Poker, 159
( July 20, 2010) (dissertation, University of Vienna), available
at <http://othes.univie.ac.at/12121/1/2010-07-20_0300723
.pdf >.
ADDICTION RISK OF ONLINE TEXAS HOLD’EM NO LIMIT 715
Classifying online poker as a game of chance or
skill ultimately remains a question that must be an-
swered politically, since the determination, for reg-
ulating purposes, depends on societal norms and
values, as well as regulatory goals.
27
For games
that contain elements of both chance and skill,
such as poker, this entails a certain degree of legal
uncertainty.
3. ONLINE POKER MARKET
3.1. Legal framework
Regulation of the online poker market cannot be
considered consistent in either Germany or the EU
(Figure 2).
In Germany, the currently debated draft of
the new Gluecksspielstaatsvertrag (Interstate
Treaty on Gambling), which was supposed to
replace the old one by 2012, is considered by
many experts as not compatible with EU law.
28
In order to achieve a detailed overview of the
legal and economic aspects of gambling, the
European Commission instructed the Swiss
Institute of Comparative Law to undertake a
comprehensive study on this sector. The
study is the result of nearly two years of
work and includes an analysis of existing
legal provisions in the EU that relate to gam-
bling. Although national provisions pursue
largely similar objectives, they differ widely
in structure and frequently pose obstacles to
the freedom of services and freedom of estab-
lishment that would be irreconcilable with
Community law.
29
In the EU, (online) gambling regulation is like
a ‘‘patchwork quilt.’’ Two basic models cur-
rently exist for regulating gambling at a na-
tional level: one based on licensed operators
providing services within a strictly regulated
framework; and the other on a strictly con-
trolled monopoly (state owned or otherwise).
These two models co-existed within the inter-
nal market, given the relatively limited possi-
bilities of selling gambling services across
borders in the past.
30
With its Green Paper on online gambling, the
European Commission has launched an exten-
sive consultation on all public policy chal-
lenges and possible Single Market issues
arising from the rapid development of author-
ised and unauthorised online gambling offers
directed at EU citizens.
31
The existing market is largely unregulated and
unchecked at present. If this cross-border market
will continue to be left to its own devices, citizens
will also continue to be forced into a grey area.
The notion of ‘‘grey’ market is often used to de-
scribe a factual or legal situation in the context of
EU law. In the context of gambling, it is used to de-
scribe markets consisting of operators duly licensed
in one or more member states providing online gam-
bling services in other member states without hav-
ing obtained an authorization to do so under the
corresponding national legislation. By contrast, un-
regulated or black markets are used to describe mar-
kets in which unlicensed operators seek to provide
online gambling services.
32
This may also result in pathological gamblers not
being identified, which means it would not be pos-
sible to check and prevent them from becoming
addicted. It is currently also not possible to offer
FIG. 2. Regulation deficiencies of the online gambling market.
27
Cf. W. Hambach, M. Hettich, and T. Kruis, supra note 2.
28
See the discussion in L. Rebeggiani, Die Vorschlaege der
La
¨nder zur Reform des Glu
¨StV—Eine oekonomische Analyse,
Report for the German Lottery Association (Lotterie-Initiative)
(Hannover 2011).
29
The report’s sub-sections are available online at <http://
ec.europa.eu/internal_market/services/gambling_de.htm >.
30
European Commission, Green Paper on On-line Gambling in
the Internal Market, SEC (2011) 321, at 3, available at <http://
ec.europa.eu/internal_market/consultations/docs/2011/online_-
gambling/com2011_128_en.pdf >.
31
Cf. id.
32
Cf. id.at3.
716 CLEMENT ET AL.
effective player protection because of the prevailing
legal situation in Germany. In addition, this uncon-
trolled black market could encourage illegal money
laundering. The EU Commission summarizes this
situation as follows: ‘‘A considerable illegal online
gambling market exists in the EU.As matters cur-
rently stand, consumers have access to an illegal,
cross-border market due to either de facto tolerance
or lack of effective enforcement.’’
33
3.2. Market
Online poker providers operate in a grey area in
Germany; with the result that reliable market data
are unavailable. As part of a research project enti-
tled ‘‘The Online Poker Market: Players’ Origin
and Gaming Behaviour’’ (Der Markt fuer Online-
poker: Spielerherkunft und Spielerverhalten)
funded by the city of Hamburg, Fiedler and Wilcke
collected data on some 4.6 million active online
player identities in a six-month recording phase,
in collaboration with the market monitoring com-
pany Pokerscout.
34
Active players are defined as
those who have played online poker and have placed
money bets during the six-month recording phase.
The data is partly extrapolated on an annual basis,
and also provides information on the German online
poker market.
The study is based on an evaluation of electronic
information and data collected from every provider
during the course of cash games.
35
According to the
study, data on 65% of global players by origin and
gaming behavior is stored in the University of Ham-
burg’s online poker database (OPD-UHH). Based on
player numbers, Germany is the world’s second-
largest poker market, with around 580,000 active
players. The share of German players in the entire
world market is about 10% (Table 1).
Among the 27 EU countries, Germany has a
gross market size of around 25%.
36
There are a number of studies consistently fore-
casting considerable growth of the online gambling
market. As an influential study by Goldmedia
states: ‘‘Legislation that ignores online distribution
in general, and private online offerings licensed in
the EU in particular, is totally unrealistic.’
37
In the past, German legislation was ineffective at
preventing this development.
38
As a result of the restrictive provisions of the
2008 Interstate Treaty on Gambling, large
parts of the German gambling market are de-
veloping in an uncontrolled manner and are
being creamed off by foreign providers. The
consequences are fiscal deficits in public rev-
enues and sports sponsorship as well as play-
ers continuing to move to foreign betting
providers, especially in the increasingly attrac-
tive online area.
39
The estimated market volume also is in line with the
findings of other studies. Goldmedia puts the online
Table 1. Player Identities and Active Poker
Players Globally
Ranking
Player
identities
Active poker
players
Market
share
1. United States 1,315,953 1,429,943 23.71%
2. Germany 347,903 581,350 9.64%
3. France 266,820 445,860 7.39%
4. Russia 240,394 401,701 6.66%
5. Canada 207,043 345,971 5.74%
6. United Kingdom 161,128 269,247 4.47%
7. Spain 151,431 253,043 4.20%
8. Netherlands 143,446 239,700 3.98%
9. Brazil 92,093 153,889 2.55%
10. Australia 77,626 129,714 2.15%
.
Overall 4,591,298 6,029,903 100%
Note: Some figures exist that put the number of online poker players in
Germany at up to 4 million identities. However, differentiation factors
are used here which also include, for example, occasional gamers and
gamers who do not play with cash.
33
<http://www.euractiv.de/digitale-agenda/artikel/kommission-
nimmt-online-gewinnspiele-in-visier-004559 >.
34
Cf. I. Fiedler and A.C. Wilcke, supra note 5.
35
‘Cash games’’ are poker games where players buy-in for real
money; distinguishing them from games that use ‘‘play’’
money. Play money tables were not studied.
36
Absolute sizes alone are not conclusive. As such, e.g., the risk
potential for pathological gaming behaviour cannot be deduced
from the number of players. See F. W. Peren and R. Clement,
Pathologie-Potenziale von Glu
¨cksspielprodukten. Eine kom-
parative Bewertung von in Deutschland angebotenen Spielfor-
men, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Kurzgutachten, Sankt
Augustin (2011), <http://www.forschung-gluecksspiel.de/pdf/
PKK6-01.pdf >.
37
Press Release, Goldmedia, Gluecksspielmarkt Deutschland
2015 (2010), <http://www.goldmedia.com/uploads/media/
Pressemeldung_Goldmedia_Gluecksspiel_Deutschland.pdf >.
38
Cf. F. W. Peren, R. Clement, and W. Terlau, Die volkswirt-
schaftlichen Kosten einer Monopolisierung von Sportwetten
in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Die volkswirtschaftlichen
Auswirkungen des Gluecksspielstaatsvertrages fu
¨r den deut-
schen Sportwettenmarkt, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches
Gutachten, Sankt Augustin (2010), <http://www.forschung-
gluecksspiel.de/pdf/Studie-Sportwettenfinal1-02.pdf >.
39
Goldmedia, supra note 37.
ADDICTION RISK OF ONLINE TEXAS HOLD’EM NO LIMIT 717
poker market volume in Germany for 2009 at
around e350 million (Figure 3).
40
The online market is developing at a rate which is
in sharp contrast to the shop-based and regulated
market. The size—and as such, the share of the
online market in relation to the whole of the German
gambling market—has increased considerably over
the past few years. Whereas e315 million gross
gaming revenues were generated in online sales (ex-
cluding Lotto) in 2005, in 2009, that figure had al-
ready reached e875 million, equating to a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
29.2%.
41
All segments (online gambling, online ca-
sinos, online poker, and online games) grew contin-
ually during this period.
3.3. Intense players and pathological
gaming behavior
The Fiedler and Wilcke study shows that a small
percentage of players accounts for a large propor-
tion of the playing volume.
42
This proves to be the
case for all variables of gaming behavior (game du-
ration, gaming frequency, game duration per ses-
sion, number of tables played simultaneously,
gaming intensity in the form of the paid rake in
US$ per hour).
43
In Germany, 10% of players ac-
count for about 91% of gross gaming revenues.
The first 5% of all German players account for
around 83% of the market volume, with the top
1% of German players accounting for 57% of the
market volume (Table 2). This result is not surpris-
ing, as the group of intensive players also includes
professional poker players.
In contrast to gambling pure and simple, it is
therefore not possible to say in the case of
poker that the most excessive of players are
likely to exhibit signs of compulsive gambling.
To separate pathological and professional
FIG. 3. Gross gaming revenues of the gambling market segments in Germany (2009). Press Release, Goldmedia, Gluecksspiel-
markt Deutschland 2015 (2010), <http://www.goldmedia.com/uploads/media/Pressemeldung_Goldmedia_Gluecksspiel_Deuts-
chland.pdf >.
40
In particular, with games with a high gaming frequency, gross
gaming revenue is often indicated as turnover. Gross gaming
revenue is calculated as the difference between game stakes
and winnings paid out. The high gaming frequency leads to a
never-ending circle of winning and losing. Repeated staking
of money subsequently generates a high turnover/gaming
stake per gamer.
41
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the average an-
nual growth of a variable. For a mathematical definition, see,
e.g., <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_
rate >. The compound annual growth rate is the smoothed an-
nualized gain of an investment over a given time period.
Actual fluctuations of following years do not have any effect
in the interim.
42
Cf. I. Fiedler and A. C. Wilcke, supra note 5.
43
Intense players are the first 10% of the expression of a vari-
able of gaming behavior.
718 CLEMENT ET AL.
gamblers, gaming behaviour needs to be ana-
lysed in more detail.
44
There is insufficient evidence to support whether
and to what extent pathological behavior is
exhibited within the group of intense players, or if
people are in danger of developing such behavior.
For this purpose, the impulsiveness of an action
which is, among other factors, a sign of pathological
gaming behavior, must be known. ‘As a result, un-
fortunately it is not possible to answer this question
using this set of data as it does not contain any infor-
mation on the players’ betting behaviour from
which the level of impulsiveness can be derived.
45
As such, the analysis of online poker players’
gaming behavior shows a focus on frequent players.
However, these cannot be classified a priori as path-
ological.
The average values of the playing habits are
considerably higher due to a small group of
frequent players: the 99% percentile player
has a playing volume that is 552 times higher
than that of the median player (US$2,685),
and 1% of the players account for 60% of
playing volume (10% for 91%).
This group is analyzed more thoroughly, and a
discussion shows that the first impulse to peg
intense players as (probable) pathological
gamblers is wrong.
46
What is left for discussion is whether data col-
lected electronically can be a meaningful point of ref-
erence for evaluating the potential for pathological
gamblers in the first place. A conclusion cannot be
drawn about the risk potential of pathological gaming
behavior from the number of players alone. When de-
termining the pathological potential of a type of gam-
bling, referring to the rates of prevalence is not
meaningful. The prevalence of gambling only allows
conclusions to be drawn on the proportion of people
who have or who have not participated in a gambling
game in a specific period.
47
The risk to the population
(prevalence of a pathological game based on the adult
population) appears to be more meaningful as a refer-
ence value. This calculation includes the attractive-
ness to the population (gaming behavior) and
gambling risk
48
in equal measure. Such a consider-
ation comprises the following components:
49
Proportion of pathological gamblers of a game
type [in %]
Market share of this game type [in %]
or:
Number of pathological gamblers of a game
type [in units]
Total number of pathological gamblers in the
overall market [in units]
Revenues of game type under review [in e]
Revenues of the overall market [in e]
There is still a lack of adequate reliable and valid
data to conduct such a review for online gambling
games.
4. MEASURING AND EVALUATING
THE POTENTIAL ADDICTION RISKS
OF GAMBLING GAME TYPES
In a fundamental ruling dated 28 March 2006, the
German Federal Constitutional Court found that:
‘In accordance with the latest research, it is certain
that gambling and betting may lead to pathological
Table 2. Aggregate Playing Volume of Intense
Players in Germany
Intensive
player
group
Playing
volume—paid
rake—in US$
Share of the
playing volume
of the sample
Top 1% overall 448,939,210 54.88%
Germany 44,935,363 57.07%
Top 5% overall 658,081,834 80.44%
Germany 65,262,817 82.88%
Top 10% overall 731,079,221 89.36%
Germany 71,611,298 90.95%
Source:I. Fiedler and A. C. Wilcke, Der Markt fuer Online-
poker. Spielerherkunft und Spielerverhalten (Norderstedt
2011).
44
<http://www.hochgepokert.com/2011/04/29/der-markt-fur-
onlinepoker-ingo-fiedler-antwortet-den-lesern-von-hochgepokert-
com-teil-2/ >.
45
I. Fiedler and A. C. Wilcke, supra note 5, at 84.
46
I. Fiedler, The Gambling Habits of Online Poker Players 1
(2011) (submitted working paper), available at <http://papers
.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id =1908161 >.
47
Cf. BZgA (Federal Centre for Health Education), Glueckss-
pielverhalten in Deutschland 2007 und 2009. Ergebnisse aus
zwei repraesentativen Bevoelkerungsbefragungen 33 (Ko
¨ln
2010).
48
‘Gambling risk’’ is the risk of a diagnosis Pathological Gam-
bling (PG), according to DSM-IV.
49
Cf. F. W. Peren and R. Clement, supra note 36.
ADDICTION RISK OF ONLINE TEXAS HOLD’EM NO LIMIT 719
addiction. However, different types of gambling
have different addiction potentials.’’
50
To date, it has almost been impossible to give a
more precise definition of the addiction potential
of a specific gambling product. This is why the char-
itable lottery Aktion Mensch commissioned scientists
from the Bonn-Rhine-Sieg University of Applied Sci-
ences in October 2006 to work on a measurement and
evaluation tool to determine the risk potential of gam-
bling products.
51
These initial studies showed that
gambling research in Germany still predominantly
belongs to the clinical area; in other words, it is influ-
enced mainly by a psycho-medical perspective. In
contrast to, e.g., the UK, the USA, Canada, and Aus-
tralia,therehadbeeninGermany,uptothemid-
2000s, a lack of scientific and interdisciplinary re-
search on gambling.
52
On this basis, Aktion Mensch and the ARD Tele-
vision Lottery established the Gambling Scientific
Forum, comprised of experts from different disci-
plines of gambling research (economics, law, med-
icine, psychology, sociology) at the beginning of
2007, with the aim of producing a powerful mea-
surement and evaluation tool that was as objective
as possible to determine the risk potential of gam-
bling products.
53
The first draft of the tool was pub-
lished at the beginning of 2008.
54
Since then, the
tool has been developed further, validated empiri-
cally, and was presented to experts on July 6,
2010 at a public presentation (AsTERiG—Assess-
ment Tool to measure and Evaluate the Risk poten-
tial of Gambling products).
The value of classifying gambling products
according to their level of risk is also acknowledged
at an international context. Similar research exists
from the UK,
55
Finland,
56
and Sweden.
57
Its empir-
ical basis does, however, appear to be—insofar as it
has been published—inadequate, and the methodo-
logical approaches do not seem to be wholly repro-
ducible in all points.
58
4.1. AsTERiG measurement tool
4.1.1. Methodology and catalogue of criteria.
The empirical development of the measurement
tool was based on two modules. In the first module,
compulsive gambling experts were questioned as
part of a Delphi study.
The Delphi methodology is a systematic, multi-
stage, and feedback-orientated process where ex-
perts’ opinions are gathered to solve problems
over multiple rounds, until a previously defined
stop criterion is reached (e.g., achievement of consen-
sus or stable results).
59
The experts’ questionnaire
consisted of four assessment phases. The first two
phases focused on selecting event criteria that have a
considerable impact on the risk potential of gambling.
Furthermore, experts were asked to provide sug-
gestions on summaries, exclusions, and additions of
criteria, upon whose basis a selection of criteria
(based on suitability for use and international tools)
was made. The third assessment phase concerned de-
veloping scales in relation to the determined event
criteria, which were initially devised by the Monitor-
ing Team with a focus on the various real values of
the criteria of individual gambling game types.
In a separate study conducted in parallel to the
Delphi study, Beutel and Mo
¨rsen (2009)
60
empirically
50
Federal Constitutional Court (BverfG) 115, 276; ‘‘Sportwette-
nurteil.’
51
Cf. F. W. Peren, R. Clement, and W. Terlau, Definition and
evaluation of leading German and European gambling re-
search on ‘‘Gaming addiction,’(2006) (study produced on be-
half of Aktion Mensch, Bonn).
52
The situation changed in the subsequent years (see, e.g., the
survey in L. Rebeggiani, Die Regulierung des deutschen Lotter-
iemarktes—Reformvorschla
¨ge im Jahr Drei des neuen Glu
¨StV
(2010) (report for the German Federation of Private Lotto Com-
panies (Deutscher Lottoverband), Hannover), although a lack of
interdisciplinary research still remains.
53
The following scholars worked on finalizing this tool: Prof.
Dr. Reiner Clement, Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University of Applied
Sciences; Prof. Dr. Joerg Ennuschat, University of Konstanz;
Prof. Joerg Haefeli, Lucerne University of Applied Sciences
and Arts—Social Work; Prof. Dr. Gerhard Meyer, University
of Bremen; Chantal Moersen, qualified psychologist, Charite
Berlin; Prof. Dr. Franz W. Peren, Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University
of Applied Sciences; Prof. Dr. Wiltrud Terlau, Bonn-Rhein-
Sieg University of Applied Sciences.
54
Cf. Gambling Scientific Forum, Mess- und Bewertungsinstru-
ment zur Feststellung des Gefaehrdungspotentials von
Gluecksspielprodukten,1Zeitschrift fuer Wett- und
Glu
¨cksspielrecht (ZfWG) 1–12 (2008).
55
GamGARD—Gaming Assessment Measure—Guidance
about Responsible Design, <http://www.gamgard.com >.
56
Product Evaluation Method for Reducing Potential Hazards
(Finnland), <http://www.veikkaus.fi >.
57
Playscan, <http://www.spelinstitutet.se >.
58
Cf. F. W. Peren, Assessment Tool to measure and Evaluate the
Risk potential of Gambling products—AsTERiG (2009), <http://
www.forschung-gluecksspiel.de/pdf/AsTERiG.pdf >.
59
Cf. M. Haeder and S. Haeder, The Delphi Method as a me-
thodical research component,in Die Delphi-Technik in
den Sozialwissenschaften. Methodische Forschungen
und innovative Anwendungen 11–31 (M. Haeder and S.
Haeder eds. 2000).
60
Cf. M. Beutel and C. Moersen, Validation Study Findings
(2009) (presentation at a workshop of the Gambling Scientific
Forum, Bonn).
720 CLEMENT ET AL.
reviewed the results of a literature analysis
61
which
revealed twelve relevant event criteria, from a sur-
vey of gambling game providers as well as occa-
sional and pathological gamblers. Ten criteria,
validated empirically, were also part of the experts’
selection (Table 3).
62
A guide to the empirically validated measure-
ment tool AsTERiG is available. It allows the crite-
ria to be fine tuned within the scalings. Ten criteria
with different weightings are included when calcu-
lating the risk potential of gambling products.
‘Event frequency’’ has the highest weighting, 3,
while ‘‘game continuity’’ has the lowest value, 1
(Table 4).
The criteria scales were confirmed mainly by the
results of the player questionnaire and the overall
random sampling. The range of values of a criterion
is between 2 and 8.
To calculate the risk potential of a gambling
game, first, the relevant value is fixed for each cri-
terion and the corresponding points value is multi-
plied by the weight of the criterion. The total of
these products makes up the overall value of the
gambling game (Table 4). The weights of the ten
criteria total 15.7, which is fixed for each gambling
product to be evaluated. To ensure individual prod-
ucts being evaluated objectively, the individual cri-
teria must be fixed precisely within the framework
of the guide on how to use the measurement tool.
If the resulting individual points are multiplied by
the general weightings of the criteria, this provides
an overall points result, which can vary up to a max-
imum value of 60.65 and a maximum score of
around 3.863 (60.65:15.7).
If, for instance, the points results are divided into
five equally broad classes,
63
it is possible to classify
the results into five risk classes or risk potentials
(Table 5).
4.1.2. Visualization. A scorecard enables visu-
alization of the varying significance of the criteria in
relation to the risk potential of gambling products
(Table 3). Scorecards are suited for the quantitative
evaluation of potential and risk analyses to assess
Table 3. Criteria to Evaluate the Risk Potential
of Gambling Products
Criterion Definition
Event frequency Unit of time between placing the
stake, outcome of the game, and
placing the next stake
Payout interval Time between outcome of the game
and payout of the winnings
Jackpot Amount of winnings resulting from
the continual addition of the betting
shares of all players, which is not
due for payout
Game continuity Extent to which the game can be
continued uninterrupted (without
breaks), or seamless switching
between different games is possible
Probability of
winning
Probability of winning (including
winning less than the amount
staked)
Availability How easily the player gains access to
the gambling game
Multi-game/betting
opportunities
Possibility to place multiple bets at the
same time; or to play in multiple
games simultaneously
Variable stake Extent to which the player can
determine the amount of stake in a
game himself
Sound and light
effects
Audio and visual effects during the
game and game presentation
Near wins Game outcomes where the player
believes he almost won (narrowly
missed winning)
Table 4. Procedure: Multiply General Weights
by Individual Scores
Criterion Weighting Points
Value
(maximum)
Event frequency 3.0 0–4 12.00
Multi-game/betting
opportunities
2.0 2–4 8.00
Probability of winning 1.7 1–4 6.80
Sound and light effects 1.5 0–3 4.50
Variable stake 1.4 2–4 5.60
Availability 1.3 1–3.5 4.55
Jackpot 1.3 0–4 5.20
Payout interval 1.3 0.5–4 5.20
Near wins 1.2 1–4 4.80
Game continuity 1.0 0–4 4.00
Totals 15.7 60.65
61
Cf. F. Peren, R. Clement, and W. Terlau (2006), supra note 51.
62
Cf. G. Meyer, J. Ha
¨feli, C. Moersen, and M. Fiebig, Die Ein-
scha
¨tzung des Gefaehrdungspotentials von Gluecksspielen.
Ergebnisse einer Delphi-Studie und empirischen Validierung
der Beurteilungsmerkmale,56Sucht 405–414 (2010).
63
Alternatively, it would be possible to carry out an irregular
classification using a cluster analysis that potentially changes
over time. This option has been appropriately tested by the au-
thors. The practical approach is reliant on the current conditions
and is orientated to a large extent on the guide that applies.
ADDICTION RISK OF ONLINE TEXAS HOLD’EM NO LIMIT 721
product and service ideas, as well as for many other
purposes.
64
The aim in the example below is to identify and
visualize the evaluation of the risk potential based
on a fictional gambling product offered in Germany
on Wednesdays and Saturdays.
The spider chart displays the size and shape of
the area within the graphical product profile and rel-
ativizes it to the maximum possible area of the total
spider chart (Figure 4),
65
thus making the variations
of certain criteria clear.
To analyze the type of criteria in greater detail
and compare them with each other, it is worthwhile
creating a bar chart in addition to the spider chart
(Figure 5).
Based on scores, the tool measures the magnitude
of the risk potential of a game. In doing so, it also
allows a comparison to be drawn between the addic-
tion potentials of different gambling products. Fur-
thermore, the tool highlights where the specific risk
potentials of individual games lie. This makes it a
valuable tool for legislative, judicial, and adminis-
trative purposes, as it allows the risk potentials of
individual gambling products to be identified in a
specific and comparative way. In practice, specific
products should always be evaluated and not, for in-
stance, product groups (lotteries, slot machines) or
providers.
A visual depiction provides the decision makers
with clear criteria to enable them to evaluate the
risk potential of gambling products. In addition,
the consumer may evaluate the risk potential of
gambling products him- or herself.
Such a tool allows risk potential to be evaluated
for both old and new games.
66
For this purpose, it
appears worthwhile and advisable to establish a sci-
entifically supported certification process by an in-
dependent review authority. Depending on their
level of risk, gambling products may be subjected
to varying degrees of regulation.
4.2. Extension of the list of criteria for online
gambling games
In principle, AsTERiG is suitable for all game
types. That said, the list of criteria for online games
can also be extended by several meaningful criteria.
The term ‘‘online games’’ covers all digital
games that are played independently or together
with others against one or more opponents (peo-
ple/machines) over a network connection.
67
Table 5. Risk Classes of Gambling Products
Points result Score Risk class Risk potential
<21.45 <1.366 A Very low
21.46–31.25 1.367–1.990 B Low
31.26–41.05 1.991–2.615 C Moderate
41.06–50.85 2.616–3.239 D High
50.86–60.65 3.240–3.863 E Very high
FIG. 4. Spider chart of the risk potential of a gambling prod-
uct. Score: 1.47. Risk potential: Low (B).
FIG. 5. Bar chart of the risk potential of a gambling product.
Score: 1.47. Risk potential: Low (B).
64
Scorecards have been used, e.g., in studies of the location de-
cisions of companies. See on this topic F. W. Peren and R.
Clement, Globale Standortanalyse,6Harvard Business-
manager 70–77 (1998), and R. D. Reineke and F. Bock
(eds.), Gabler Lexikon Unternehmensberatung (Wies-
baden 2007), as well as the Gabler Wirtschaftslexikon
(2009),<http://wirtschaftslexikon.gabler.de/ Definition/peren-
clement-index.html >.
65
In a spider chart or star chart, the values of the individual cat-
egories are displayed along one axis, starting at the center of the
chart and ending on the outer ring.
66
Cf. F. Peren, R. Clement, and W. Terlau (2010), supra note 38.
67
Cf. S. Jo
¨ckel, Online Spiele. Eine konzeptuelle Abgrenzung
verschiedener Spielformen (Technische Universitaet Ilmenau,
Berichte aus Forschung und Lehre, Feb. 2007), <http://
www.db-thueringen.de/servlets/DerivateServlet/Derivate-10821/
MMMM22007_ J.pdf >.
722 CLEMENT ET AL.
A large number of different gambling services
are covered by the term ‘‘online gambling games.’
These include the online provision of sports betting
services (including horseracing), casino games,
spread betting, media games, promotional games,
gambling services operated by and for the benefit
of recognised charities and non-profit making orga-
nizations, and lottery services.
68
Online gambling is frequently assigned a high
addiction potential a priori:
People who play gambling games online can
lose control of the game very quickly, espe-
cially as online games are available all of the
time and are often just a mouse click away.
Credit card payment is also a danger in itself
as the inhibition to place high bets decreases.
Further factors that also influence the particular
risk of online gambling include the quick succes-
sion of games and to some extent the active in-
volvement of players as in the case of online
poker or online sports betting. Furthermore, online
gambling games can often be played alone—and
in doing so in an uncontrolled manner.
69
4.2.1. Criteria. There are, however, several
advantages offered by online gambling games:
70
Online gambling game safety is actually higher
than offline game safety, thanks to the techni-
cal aspects of the distribution channel.
In contrast to traditional gambling games, which
are frequently played anonymously, licensed
online gambling game providers know their cus-
tomers thanks to obligatory registration require-
ments. As a result, transactions are transparent
and traceable. Money laundering, game manipu-
lation, or problematic gaming behavior can there-
fore be prevented in a particularly reliable way.
For instance, many providers and event organiz-
ers do not permit people to bet or play on credit.
An integral part and unique characteristic of dig-
ital services, which also includes gambling game of-
ferings, is their online character.
71
This is expressed
in the following forms:
Active connection to the Internet and the ser-
vices provided there; the specific feature here
is the high degree of networking.
ICT creates an environment where the offering
is separated from the realities of the physical
world. This use of technology enables custom-
ers to use services regardless where the pro-
vider is based, offering the potential to do
away entirely with physical locations for cus-
tomer contact.
ICT opens up the possibility of interactivity:
users can receive program events synchro-
nously or asynchronously, control them indi-
vidually, and send information in a two-way
communication with the provider or with
other users.
72
As such, the core technologies used by digital
services are networking, virtuality, interactivity,
and the multimedia display of content.
In the EU, only five member states keep national
statistics on the prevalence of problematic gaming
behavior for online gambling games
73
—and three
further member states collect some limited
Table 6. Extended List of Criteria for Online Games
Criterion Definition
Anonymity Possibility of authenticating players, e.g.,
Personal identification
Identification using codes
Illusion of control Assumption that when gambling, it is
possible to exert more personal influence
than is objectively the case.
Type and ease of
payment
methods
Payment methods, e.g.,
Cash, credit cards,
Use of chips/tokens or payment using
debit/prepaid cards or relevant
accounts
Level of
interactivity
Mutual, computer-based influencing of
actions relating to a technical and/or
social attribute that allows senders and
recipients to easily and continually
switch roles.
68
Cf. European Commission, supra note 30, at 14.
69
http://www.automatisch-verloren.de/index.php/de/steckbriefe-
gluecksspielarten/online-gluecksspiele >.
70
<http://www.ariva.de/news/Online-Gluecksspiel-Franzoe-
sischer-Generalanwalt-2771679 >.
71
Cf. H. F. Breithaupt, Dienstleistungen im Internet
und ihre Qualitaet aus Kundensicht (Wiesbaden 2005).
72
The term ‘‘interactivity’’ has different meanings in different
scientific disciplines. To some extent there are overlaps with
the terms ‘‘interaction’’ and ‘‘communication.’
73
Belgium, Estonia, the Netherlands, Italy, and the United
Kingdom.
ADDICTION RISK OF ONLINE TEXAS HOLD’EM NO LIMIT 723
information (data collection processes with a re-
stricted scope, on a certain age group, or on a cer-
tain type of online game).
74
These studies suggest
the following main factors for problematic gaming
behavior:
75
1. Event frequency
2. Payout interval
3. Accessibility and social environment
4. Chasing loses or being close to winning
76
5. Perceived skills and ‘‘involvement’
77
6. Commercial communications that could reach
vulnerable groups
Most of these factors are included in the existing
version of the AsTERiG tool. In a further study
aimed to include online games, another four criteria
were identified in the literature (Table 6).
To empirically validate these and other criteria
that might be significant for online poker in partic-
ular, in February 2012, interdisciplinary experts at
the European level were interviewed at and outside
of a joint workshop (Table 7).
As a first result, the experts found that the
AsTERiG tool in its existing form requires only
an additional ‘‘illusion of control’’ feature to be an
adequate measuring tool of the addiction potential
of online games.
Illusion of control (Table 8). In some games,
the active inclusion of the player in the course of
the play can lead to a feeling of being able to influ-
ence the outcome of the game.
Seemingly successful strategies can be attributed
to one’s own skills.
78
Active inclusion of the player
in the course of play, a large number of choices, and
a long time spent thinking about the subject may
lead to a subjective conviction on the player’s part
that he can increase the likelihood of winning by
means of his own skills. An illusion of being in con-
trol is created.
4.2.2. Case study: Texas Hold’em No Limit.
The following evaluation of the online poker game
Texas Hold’em No Limit was conducted empiri-
cally in February 2012 by the experts listed in
Table 7, drawing a distinction between cash games
(Figure 6) and tournaments (Figure 7). In both cat-
egories, a further distinction was drawn between
event frequency—game speed and event
Table 7. Experts on Empirical Validation
of the Addiction Potential of Texas Hold’em
No Limit Online Poker
Experts Country Institution
Dr. Anneke E.
Goudriaan
NL University of Amsterdam,
Academic Medical
Center
Dr. Ruth J. van Holst NL University of Amsterdam,
Academic Medical
Center
Dr. Sabrina Molinaro I CNR—Istituto di
Fisiologia Clinica
Sezione di
Epidemiologia Pisa
Dr. Chantal Moersen D Charite
´Berlin
Thomas Nilsson S Spelinstitutet Sweden
Dr. Adrian Parke UK University of Lincoln
Dr. Jonathan Parke UK Gambling Lab Ltd
Dr. Luca Rebeggiani DI University of Hannover
Prof. Heino Stoever D Frankfurt University of
Applied Sciences
Prof. Wiltrud Terlau D Bonn-Rhein-Sieg
University
Miche
`le Wilhelm,
Diplom-
Psychologin
CH, F Former welfare officer at
the Grand Casino,
Basle
Note: The scientific initiators of this study, Reiner Clement and Franz
W. Peren, were not included.
Table 8. Scaling the Illusion of Control Feature
Feature Scaling
Illusion of
control
(three-stage
scale)
Does
not
exist
Exists
but is not
created
intentionally
Exists and
is created
intentionally
by the provider
Points 0 2 4
74
Finland, Germany, and Malta.
75
Cf. European Commission, supra note 30, at 21.
76
Interpretation of the European Commission: the greater the
pay-out and probability of winning, the greater the delusion
that lost stakes can be won back and therefore the increased
risk (this is also linked to ‘‘excitement’’ or ‘‘dream effect’’).
77
Interpretation of the European Commission: the possibility of
getting involved in the event being gambled on and of using
one’s own skills to assess the chances of winning provide evi-
dence of the ‘‘near-miss’’ psychology. This strengthens the feel-
ing that one is in control of the game, thus increasing the risk.
This includes variation of the stake. Note that this effect may be
enhanced when some element of skill, rather than purely
chance, is perceived to be a characteristic of the game.
78
Cf. G. Meyer and T. Hayer, Das Gefaehrdungspotenzial von
Lotterien und Sportwetten—Eine Untersuchung von Spielern
aus Versorgungseinrichtungen (Abschlussbericht an das Minis-
terium fuer Arbeit, Gesundheit und Soziales des Landes Nordr-
hein-Westfalen und an die Westdeutsche Lotterie GmbH & Co.
KG) (Bremen 2005), at 35.
724 CLEMENT ET AL.
frequency—reaction time. It must also be kept in
mind that scientific studies consider Texas Hold’em
No Limit to be a mixed game (of chance and skill).
As overall result, the risk potential of Texas
Hold’em No Limit online poker cash games was
assessed at 2.37 points (rounded: 40.72:17.2; Figure
6 and Table 9). The maximum number of points
awarded was 64.65.
The empirical validation of cash games lead to
the following mean values: arithmetical mean =
moderate, median =moderate, mode =moderate.
In total, the risk potential of Texas Hold’em No
Limit online poker tournaments was rated with a
score of 2.28 (rounded: 39.13:17.2; Figure 7 and
Table 10). The maximum number of points awarded
was 64.65.
The empirical validation of the tournament
mode arrived at the following mean values: arithmet-
ical mean =moderate, median =moderate, mode =
moderate.
The risk potential of Texas Hold’em No Limit
online poker can thus be classified as moderate
(Table 11). Compared to other gaming types, the
score lies within the same category as sports betting
(measured with the same tool). It is also consistent
with the findings of a recent Dutch study.
79
5. CONCLUSIONS
Online poker must be classified as a mixed game
(game of skill and game of chance), which is not
subject to a uniform legislation, either in Germany
or the EU:
80
In Germany, online gaming was entirely for-
bidden until the end of 2011. Now there is an
attempt by Schleswig-Holstein to establish a
legal framework for certain types of online
games. The other 15 La
¨nder have not followed
yet, and their draft for a new Interstate Treaty
on Gambling is considered by many experts
to be incompatible with EU law.
FIG. 6. Texas Hold’em No Limit product profile—Cash
games.
FIG. 7. Texas Hold’em No Limit product profile—Tournaments.
Table 9. Texas Hold’em No Limit score—Cash Games
Risk potential criteria Weighting
Points
(0–4)
a
G*P
Event frequency—Game speed 1.5 2.8 4.27
Event frequency—Reaction time 1.5 2.8 4.19
Multigame/betting opportunities 2.0 3.7 7.36
Probability of winning 1.7 2.2 3.79
Sound and light effects 1.5 1.1 1.64
Variable stake 1.4 2.5 3.56
Availability 1.3 3.5 4.61
Jackpot 1.3 1.0 1.30
Payout interval 1.3 1.9 2.48
Near wins 1.2 1.4 1.64
Game continuity 1.0 2.7 2.68
Illusion of control 1.5 2.1 3.20
Totals 17.2 40.72
a
These points correspond to the arithmetical mean of the individual rat-
ings awarded by the entire team of experts listed in Table 7. The authors
of this study were not included.
79
Cf. G. J. Meerkerk, A. Risselada, and C. Schrijvers, The cards
on the table. Report of a survey carried out into the nature, se-
verity and extent of poker addiction in the Netherlands (Rotter-
dam 2010). The study is based on an analysis of literature on
addiction to gambling, on talks by experts with addiction care
organization employees, social workers, psychologists, casino
employees, and gambling addicts, along with a representative
survey of members of the general public. The English transla-
tion states explicitly on page 21 that ‘‘the risk of addiction to
poker is slight.’
80
Cf. W. Hambach, M. Hettich, and T. Kruis, supra note 2.
ADDICTION RISK OF ONLINE TEXAS HOLD’EM NO LIMIT 725
No uniform legal framework exists in the EU, ei-
ther. Liberal settings and strict regulations coex-
ist in some member states. Furthermore, in some
countries, online poker is considered a game of
skill rather than a game of chance.
Irrespective of the forms of regulation, the online
gambling market has developed dynamically over
recent years in the majority of EU states.
The study shows that Texas Hold’em No Limit,
like other games of chance or skill, can be evaluated
regarding its associated potential addiction risk with
the AsTERiG tool. However, the analysis of online
games of chance and skill like Texas Hold’em No
Limit makes an extension of the catalogue of crite-
ria meaningful. Interdisciplinary experts within the
EU have drawn up suitable criteria.
An empirical validation of Texas Hold’em No
Limit online poker rates its addiction risk poten-
tial as medium on a scale of one to five, or on
a par with the addiction risk of sports betting.
A material factor in this connection appears to
be ‘‘operator behavior,’’ which may influence
the risk potential of games of chance and games
of skill significantly. The study recommends in-
terdisciplinary research at the European level
into this causality, too.
Table 10. Texas Hold’em No Limit
Score—Tournaments
Risk potential criteria Weight
Points
(0–4)
a
Weight*
Points
Event frequency 3.0 2.0 6.00
Multi-game/betting opportunities 2.0 2.5 5.00
Probability of winning 1.7 3.0 5.10
Sound and light effects 1.5 0.0 0.00
Variable stake 1.4 4.0 5.60
Availability 1.3 3.5 4.55
Jackpot 1.3 0.0 0.00
Payout interval 1.3 1.0 1.30
Near wins 1.2 1.0 1.20
Game continuity 1.0 4.0 4.00
Anonymity* 1.5 0.0 0.00
Illusion of control* 1.5 0.5 0.75
Type/ease of payment methods* 1.5 2.0 3.00
Level of interactivity* 1.5 2.0 3.00
Totals 21.7 39.50
a
The points awarded here correspond to the arithmetical mean of the
individual ratings by the entire team of experts listed in Table 7. The
scientific initiators of this study, Reiner Clement and Franz W. Peren,
were not included.
Table 11. Texas Hold’em No Limit Risk
Potential (Classification)
Result Score Risk category Risk potential
0–18 up to 0.83 A Very low
18.1–30 0.83–1.38 B Low
30.1–42 1.39–1.94 C Moderate
42.1–54 2.32–2.49 D High
Over 54 2.5 E Very high
(Appendix follows/)
726 CLEMENT ET AL.
Appendix. AsTERiG—Definition and Scaling of Criteria
Criterion Definition Scaling
Event frequency Unit of time between
placing the stake,
outcome of the game
and placing the next
stake
More than 6
days
More than 24
hours and up
to 6 days
More than 4
hours and up
to 24 hours
More than 30
minutes and
up to 4 hours
More than 3
minutes and
up to 30
minutes
More than 1
minute and up
to 3 minutes
15 seconds to 1
minute
Less than 15
seconds
0 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Payout interval Time between outcome
of the game and
payout of the
winnings
More than 3
days
More than 24
hours and up
to 3 days
More than 4
hours and up
to 24 hours
More than 30
minutes and
up to 4 hours
More than 3
minutes and
up to 30
minutes
More than 1
minute and up
to 3 minutes
15 seconds to 1
minute
Less than 15
seconds
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Jackpot Amount of winnings
resulting from the
continual addition of
the betting shares of
all players which is
not due for payout
None 0 euro to 99
euros
100 euros to 999
euros
1,000 euros to
9,999 euros
10,000 euros to
99,999 euros
100,000 euros to
999,999 euros
1 million euros
to 50 million
euros
Over 50 million
euros
0 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Game
continuity
Extent to which the
game can be
continued
uninterrupted
(without breaks), or
seamless switching
between different
games is possible
0 to 5 minutes’
uninterrupted
play
More than 5 and
up to 15
minutes’
uninterrupted
play
More than 15
and up to 30
minutes’
uninterrupted
play
More than 30
minutes’ and
up to 1 hour’s
uninterrupted
play
More than 1
hour’s and up
to 3 hours’
uninterrupted
play
More than 3
hours’
uninterrupted
play
0 1 2 3 3.5 4
Probability of
winning
Probability of winning
(including winning
less than the amount
bet)
0% to 4% More than 4%
and up to 24%
More than 24%
and up to 49%
More than 49%
1234
Availability How easily the player
gains access to the
gambling game
Playing
opportunities
in a radius of
over 100km
Playing
opportunities
in a radius of
10 to 100km
Local playing
opportunities
in a radius of
up to 10km
Playing
opportunities
at actual place
of residence/
work
1 2 3 3.5
(continued)
727
Appendix. (Continued)
Criterion Definition Scaling
Multi-game/
betting
opportunities
Possibility to place
multiple bets at the
same time, or to play
in multiple games
simultaneously
One playing
opportunity
and one bet
opportunity
One playing
opportunity
and multiple
bet
opportunities
Multiple
playing and
betting
opportunities
234
Variable stake Extent to which the
player can determine
the amount of stake
in a game himself
Fixed stake Variable stake,
restricted
stake amount
Unlimited stake
amount
234
Sound and light
effects
Audio and visual
effects during the
game and game
presentation
None Sound or light
effects
Sound and light
effects
023
Illusion of
control
Assumption that more
personal influence is
possible in games of
chance or skill than
is objectively
possible
None Exists but is not
intentional
Exists and is
generated
intentionally
by the
provider
024
Near wins Game outcomes where
the player believes
he almost won
(narrowly missed
winning)
Not
intentionally
produced,
occur by
chance
Intentionally
produced by
provider/
producer,
occur more
frequently
than by
chance
14
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Bár a legtöbb ember, aki szerencsejátékot játszik, ezt anélkül teszi, hogy rá nézve káros következményei lennének e tevékenységnek, mégis egyeseknek visszatérő, maladaptív viselkedészavart okoz a szerencsejáték. Gyakran a kóros játékszenvedély pénzügyi veszteséggel jár, problémát okoz a családban és az interperszonális kapcsolatokban, továbbá más pszichiátriai rendellenességekkel együtt fordul elő. Közismert, hogy a különböző típusú szerencsejátékok különböző mértékben vezetnek maladaptív mintákhoz a szerencsejátékos viselkedésben . Közcél, hogy kiegyensúlyozott hozzáféréssel a szerencsejátékok kockázatát minimalizáljuk. Egészen a közelmúltig ezen kockázat pontos felmérésének lehetősége a különböző szerencsejáték termékeknél szinte lehetetlen volt. Az ASTERIG nevű eszközt, eredetileg Németországban fejlesztették ki 2006 és 2010 között . Ez tulajdonképpen egy olyan értékelési eszköz, amellyel tíz dimenzió mentén lehet mérni a kockázatot - különböző pontszámok alapján - bármely szerencsejáték termékek esetén. Az értékelés során a függőségi potenciál szempontjából lehet összehasonlítást végezni a különböző szerencsejáték termékek között. Az értékelés lehetővé teszi, hogy akár a jogalkotási, joggyakorlati és közigazgatási szinten alkalmazzák, mivel megmutatja minden egyes játék egyedi kockázati potenciálját, ezáltal lehetővé teszi a kockázat pontos meghatározását . Az egyes szerencsejáték termékek veszélyességi potenciáljának beazonosítása és összehasonlítása globálisan 10 különböző kockázati dimenzió mentén történik. Megjegyezzük, hogy minden egyes szerencsejáték termékeknél egyedileg kell a termékjellemzőket figyelembe venni, nem pedig termékcsoportonként (lottók, gépek, sorsjegyek) vagy szolgáltatónként, mivel eltérések lehetnek az egyedi azonosítók között, és a termékcsoportokon belül is eltérő lehet az egyes termékek kockázati potenciálja. Például a játékgépeken változhat a jackpot összege, amely hatással lehet a potenciális kockázatra. Ez az objektív és szisztematikus eszköz, segíthet az orvosi és pszichológiai kutatásokban, és a politikai döntéshozatalban, annak a kockázatnak az értékeléséhez, mely az egyes szerencsejáték termékeket összehasonlítja más szerencsejátékokkal. Emellett nemzetközi kontextusban is lehetővé teszi a különböző szerencsejátékos termékek kockázati mértékének beazonosítását. Hasonló kutatások folynak Nagy- Britanniában , Finnországban és Svédországban . Ugyanakkor ezeknek a kutatásoknak az empirikus eredményei még nem jelentek meg, így az értékelésük is nehéz .
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Gambling Scientific Forum, Mess-und Bewertungsinstrument zur Feststellung des Gefaehrdungspotentials von Gluecksspielprodukten, 1 Zeitschrift fuer Wett-und Glü cksspielrecht (ZfWG)
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