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Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815

June 2003
Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment 27(2):230-259

Authors:

University of Cambridge

The 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano (Sumbawa island, Indonesia) expelled around 140 gt of magma (equivalent to ≈50 km3 of dense rock), making it the largest known historic eruption. More than 95% by mass of the ejecta was erupted as pyroclastic flows, but 40% by mass of the material in these flows ended up as ash fallout from the 'phoenix' clouds that lofted above the flows during their emplacement. Although they made only a minor contribution to the total magnitude of the eruption, the short-lived plinian explosions that preceded the climactic eruption and caldera collapse were powerful, propelling plumes up to 43 km altitude. Over 71 000 people died during, or in the aftermath of, the eruption, on Sumbawa and the neighbouring island of Lombok. The eruption injected ≈60 mt of sulfur into the stratosphere, six times more than was released by the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This formed a global sulfate aerosol veil in the stratosphere, which resulted in pronounced climate perturbations. Anomalously cold weather hit the northeastern USA, maritime provinces of Canada, and Europe the following year. 1816 came to be known as the 'Year without a summer' in these regions. Crop failures were widespread and the eruption has been implicated in accelerated emigration from New England, and widespread outbreaks of epidemic typhus. These events provide important insights into the volcanic forcing of climate, and the global risk of future eruptions on this scale.

Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse image showing the western half of Sumbawa island. The island's complex perimeter reflects the interconnection of several volcanic peaks and massifs that rise from the Flores Sea. The Sanggar peninsula is dominated by Tambora volcano, which rises to a »6-km-diameter summit caldera (Copyright USGS; source: http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov)

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Estimates of the sulfur yield of the 1815 eruption of Tambora

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Stratigraphy of tephra deposits from the Tambora eruption logged at Gambah, 25 km from the summit Source : modified from Sigurdsson, H. and Carey, S. 1989: Plinian and co-ignimbrite tephra fall from the 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano. Bulletin of Volcanology 51, 243–70, and used with the permission of Springer-Verlag GmbH

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Comparison of selected volcanic eruptions of the past two millennia

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Distribution of 1815 ignimbrites (shaded areas) based on field observations and considerations of slope angle Source: modified from Sigurdsson, H. and Carey, S. 1989: Plinian and co-ignimbrite tephra fall from the 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano. Bulletin of Volcanology 51, 243-70, and used with the permission of Springer-Verlag GmbH

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Content uploaded by Clive Oppenheimer

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Climatic, environmental and human

consequences of the largest known

historic eruption: Tambora volcano

(Indonesia) 1815

Clive Oppenheimer

Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge

CB2 3EN, UK

Abstract: The 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano (Sumbawa island, Indonesia) expelled around

140 gt of magma (equivalent to »50 km3of dense rock), making it the largest known historic

eruption. More than 95% by mass of the ejecta was erupted as pyroclastic flows, but 40% by mass

of the material in these flows ended up as ash fallout from the ‘phoenix’ clouds that lofted above

the flows during their emplacement. Although they made only a minor contribution to the total

magnitude of the eruption, the short-lived plinian explosions that preceded the climactic

eruption and caldera collapse were powerful, propelling plumes up to 43 km altitude. Over

71 000 people died during, or in the aftermath of, the eruption, on Sumbawa and the neigh-

bouring island of Lombok. The eruption injected »60 mt of sulfur into the stratosphere, six times

more than was released by the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This formed a global sulfate aerosol veil

in the stratosphere, which resulted in pronounced climate perturbations. Anomalously cold

weather hit the northeastern USA, maritime provinces of Canada, and Europe the following

year. 1816 came to be known as the ‘Year without a summer’ in these regions. Crop failures were

widespread and the eruption has been implicated in accelerated emigration from New England,

and widespread outbreaks of epidemic typhus. These events provide important insights into the

volcanic forcing of climate, and the global risk of future eruptions on this scale.

Key words: atmosphere, climate, Tambora 1815, volcano, ‘year without a summer’

Progress in Physical Geography 27,2 (2003) pp. 230–259

I had a dream, which was not all a dream.

The bright sun was extinguish’d, and the stars

Did wander darkling in the eternal space,

Rayless, and pathless, and the icy earth

Swung blind and blackening in the moonless air;

Morn came and went – and came, and brought no day,

And men forgot their passions in the dread

Of this their desolation; and all hearts

Were chill’d into a selfish prayer for light

Extract from Darkness by Lord Byron, 1816

(J.J. McGann and B. Weller, editors, The complete poetical works, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 7 vols., 1980–92.)

1 Introduction

Two of the strongest currents in contemporary volcanology concern risk mitigation and

the coupling of volcanism to the Earth system. Of course, these very broad motivations

encompass a great variety of individual lines of enquiry but it is true that they are at the

heart of much volcanological research. In the past 20–30 years, significant advances

have been made in the theoretical and experimental description of volcanic processes,

such as the physics of explosive eruptions, and the atmospheric transport and

deposition of ash. These approaches have borne fruit not least because they provide a

secure basis for developing tools to ‘invert’ the geological record of past eruptions to

yield quantitative estimates of important eruption parameters. Over the same period,

improved surveillance techniques (e.g., seismology, geodesy, geochemistry, satellite

remote sensing) and computational capabilities have led to opportunities to calibrate

and validate these theoretical treatments. Satellite observations following the 1991

eruption of Pinatubo in the Philippines, for example, have yielded much information

on the response of the atmosphere-climate system to sulfur-rich explosive eruptions

(McCormick et al., 1995; Hansen et al., 1997; Robock, 2000). However, the modern

instrumental record only spans a modest range of eruption intensities, sulfur yields and

durations. To understand the hazards and climatic consequences of eruptions signifi-

cantly larger than Pinatubo, we have to explore the records of historical and prehistoric

volcanism. In this regard, the largest known eruption in history, that of Tambora

volcano, Indonesia, in 1815, offers vital insights.

Tambora may once have been the highest peak of the East Indies. Sailing eastwards

past Bali, it appeared as high on the horizon, despite being further away, as 3726-m-

high Mount Rinjani on Lombok island. Stothers (1984) reckoned its height must have

exceeded 4300 m. We will never know for certain because the cone was toppled in April

1815 by the largest eruption of recorded history. The events resulted in the greatest

known death toll attributable to a volcanic eruption (Tanguy

et al., 1998), and the global

reach of the climatic consequences of the eruption has been implicated in the ‘The last

great subsistence crisis in the Western World’ (Post, 1977). The aim of this paper is to

review the events and consequences of the 1815 eruption and to consider their implica-

tions for assessing the impact of future explosive eruptions on this scale.

C. Oppenheimer 231

232 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

II The eruption

Shortly before the eruption, Java had fallen under British control in 1811, and Sir

Stamford Raffles was the appointed Lieutenant Governor. He took a keen interest in the

culture and natural history of the island and the Indonesian archipelago, and much of

what we know about the Tambora eruption is handed down in his

history of Java

(Raffles

1817) and his memoirs (Raffles, 1830). These, and other documents and letters

published in the

Asiatic Journal

(an absorbing mine of intelligence information, literary

reviews and news items on the region, which began publication in 1816), furnish us

with fascinating insights into the nature and consequences of the eruption. These con-

temporary accounts were carefully reviewed by Stothers (1984) and Sigurdsson and

Carey (1992) but since the original documents are not that easy to come by, extracts

from them are reproduced in the following sections. Other important sources of

information on the Tambora eruption are Post (1977), Stommel and Stommel (1979,

1983) and Harrington (1992).

1 Initial blasts

Tambora forms the Sanggar peninsula on Sumbawa, one of the fleet of predominantly

volcanic islands rising from the Flores sea, Indonesia (Figure 1). It appears to have been

Figure 1 Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse

image showing the western half of Sumbawa island. The island’s

complex perimeter reflects the interconnection of several volcanic

peaks and massifs that rise from the Flores Sea. The Sanggar

peninsula is dominated by Tambora volcano, which rises to a

»6-km-diameter summit caldera (Copyright USGS; source:

http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov)

C. Oppenheimer 233

considered extinct (perhaps even nonvolcanic) until 1812 when it began rumbling and

emitting small ash clouds. Magma had clearly begun ascending to the surface. Three

years later, during the evening of Wednesday 5 April 1815, the first serious eruption

began, lasting for around 2 hours (depositing layer F-2 in Figure 2). From Raffles’

memoirs, we have the following account (Raffles, 1830):

The first explosions were heard on this Island in the evening of the 5th of April, they were noticed in every

quarter, and continued at intervals until the following day. The noise was, in the first instance, almost

universally attributed to distant cannon; so much so, that a detachment of troops were marched from

Djocjocarta, in the expectation that a neighbouring post was attacked, and along the coast boats were in two

instances dispatched in quest of a supposed ship in distress.

On the following morning, however, a slight fall of ashes removed all doubt as to the cause of the sound, and

it is worthy of remark, that as the eruption continued, the sound appeared to be so close, that in each district it

seemed near at hand, it was attributed to an eruption from the Marapi, the Gunung Kloot or the Gunung Bromo.

Figure 2 Stratigraphy of tephra deposits from the Tambora eruption

logged at Gambah, 25 km from the summit

Source: modified from Sigurdsson, H. and Carey, S. 1989: Plinian and

co-ignimbrite tephra fall from the 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano.

Bulletin of Volcanology

51, 243–70, and used with the permission of

Springer-Verlag GmbH

234 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

The Honourable Company’s Cruiser Benares was at Makassar (Ujung Pandang,

Sulawesi), 350 km north-northeast of Tambora on the 5 April. An extract from a private

letter written by the commander reads:

On the fifth of April a firing of cannon was heard at Macassar: the sound appeared to come from the southward,

and continued at intervals all the afternoon. Towards sun-set the reports seemed to approach much nearer, and

sounded like heavy guns occasionally, with slighter reports between. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 165)

By carefully examining the dispersal pattern of lithic fragments (accidental clasts

derived from conduit and vent erosion rather than new magma) in the tephra layer

resulting from this event, Sigurdsson and Carey (1989) estimated that the eruption

intensity exceeded 108kg s–1, propelling the plume to 33 km above sea-level, and that

the eruption magnitude (total mass) was 1.11 ´1012 kg. People living around the

volcano sent delegates to the government authorities in Bima to request help in inves-

tigating the eruption. The authorities responded by sending a man by the name of Israel

who reached the scene on 9 April.

2 Cataclysmic eruption

After a lull in activity, a second major eruption began around 19:00 h local time on

Monday 10th April (depositing layer F-4 in Figure 2). This event lasted less than 3 hours

but was stronger, with the discharge rate estimated at approaching 3 ´108kg s–1, and

the eruption cloud soaring to 43 km (Sigurdsson and Carey, 1989). This height may only

have been exceeded in the past two millennia by the ‘ultraplinian’ eruption of Taupo,

New Zealand, in 181 AD (which reached an estimated 51 km; Carey and Sigurdsson,

1989). Perhaps the best eyewitness account of this phase of the eruption is from

Lieutenant Owen Philipps, who was dispatched by Raffles to Sumbawa with quantities

of rice to ‘proceed and adjust the delivery thereof, with instruction, at the same time, to

ascertain, as nearly as possible, the local effects of the volcano’ (Raffles, 1830). While

staying in Dompu, he met with the Rajah of Sanggir who miraculously survived the

eruption:

As the Rajah was himself a spectator of the later eruption, the following account which he gave me is perhaps

more to be depended upon than any other I can possibly obtain. About seven p.m. on the 10th April, three

distinct columns of flame burst forth near the top of the Tomboro mountain (all of them apparently within the

verge of the crater), and after ascending separately to a very great height, their tops united in the air in a

troubled and confused manner.

Up to this point, only around 1.8 km3(dense-rock equivalent, DRE) of magma had been

erupted in total, 1.18 km3of which was provided by the F-4 phase (Figure 3(a)).

Gravitational ‘fountain’ collapse of the convecting central eruption column ensued

shortly before 20:00 h, probably as the eruption vent widened and water content in the

magma decreased. A strong ‘whirlwind’, interpreted as one or more pyrcoclastic flows,

soon hit Sanggar, destroying the village. Over the next 3–4 days around 50 km3(DRE)

of magma cascaded down the mountain as pumice flows, destroying Tambora village,

and generating immense co-ignimbrite (‘phoenix’) clouds (Figures 3(b), (4)). Of the

resulting deposit 40% by mass is composed of ash fallout from these clouds (Sigurdsson

and Carey, 1989). Israel, the representative sent by the regional government was among

those killed at this time. Philipps recorded the following from his interview with the

Rajah (Raffles, 1830):

C. Oppenheimer 235

Figure 3 Isopach maps of (a) the 10 April 1815 plinian eruption, F-4

(in centimetres, modifed after Sigurdsson, H. and Carey, S. 1989:

Plinian and co-ignimbrite tephra fall from the 1815 eruption of

Tambora volcano.

Bulletin of Volcanology

51, 243–70, and used with the

permission of Springer-Verlag GmbH): and (b) the long-range phoenix

cloud ashfall based on contemporary reports

Source: from Self, S., Rampino, M.R., Newton, M.S. and Wolff, J.A. 1984:

Volcanological study of the great Tambora eruption of 1815. Geology

12, 659–63, and used with permission of the Geological Society of

America

(a)

(b)

236 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

In a short time, the whole mountain next Sang’ir appeared like a body of liquid fire, extending itself in every

direction. The fire and columns of flame continued to rage with unabated fury, until the darkness caused by the

quantity of falling matter obscured it at about 8 p.m. Stones, at this time, fell very thick at Sang’ir; some of them

as large as two fists, but generally not larger than walnuts.

Between 9 and 10 p.m. ashes began to fall, and soon after a violent whirlwind ensued, which blew down nearly

every house in the village of Sang’ir, carrying the ataps or roofs, and light parts away with it. In the part of

Sang’ir adjoining Tomboro its effects were much more violent, tearing up by the roots the largest trees and

carrying them into the air, together with men, horses, cattle, and whatever else came within its influence.

The whirlwind lasted about an hour. No explosions were heard till the whirlwind had ceased, at about 11 a.m.

From midnight till the evening of the 11th, they continued without intermission; after that time their violence

moderated, and they were only heard at intervals, but the explosions did not cease entirely until the 15th July.

The crew of a vessel sailing from Timor also appear to have witnessed the paroxysmal

phase of the eruption, for they observed the foot of the volcano engulfed in flames and

the summit encircled by dark clouds, with fire and flames shooting out. Bima remained

in complete darkness until noon on 12 April, and ash fall there was so heavy that most

Figure 4 Distribution of 1815 ignimbrites (shaded areas) based on

field observations and considerations of slope angle

Source: modified from Sigurdsson, H. and Carey, S. 1989: Plinian and

co-ignimbrite tephra fall from the 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano.

Bulletin of Volcanology

51, 243–70, and used with the permission of

Springer-Verlag GmbH

C. Oppenheimer 237

roofs collapsed, including that of the Resident’s house (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2:

167). Curiously, the Resident appears to have singled out 14 April as the night of the

most terrific explosions, which were like ‘a heavy mortar fired close to his ear’ (Asiatic

Journal, August 1816, 2: 166). This could suggest the climactic phase of the eruption,

though this seems unlikely in view of the geographically widespread reports of

concussions heard on the night of the 10–11 April. After leaving Bima, the Benares

passed close to Tambora on 23 April, providing a picture of the appearance of the

volcano following its convulsions:

In passing it at the distance of about six miles, the summit was not visible, being enveloped in clouds of smoke

and ashes, the sides smoking in several places, apparently from the lava which has flowed down it not being

cooled; several streams have reached the sea; a very considerable one to the N.N.W. of the mountain, the course

of which was plainly discernible, both from the black colour of the lava, contrasted with the ashes on each side

of it, and the smoke which arose from every part of it. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 165–67)

3 Distant effects

The distant effects of the eruption were astonishing. Explosions were heard through the

night of Monday 10 to Tuesday 11 April in Benkulen (1800 km away), Mukomuko (2000

km), and perhaps Trumon (2600 km) on Sumatra (Figure 5). The following report came

from Fort Marlborough in Sumatra in May 1815:

Figure 5 Map of the Indonesian archipelago indicating names

mentioned in the text. Circle indicates approximate 5-cm isopach for

the phoenix cloud ashfall

Source: from Stothers, R. 1984: The great Tambora eruption in 1815 and

its aftermath.

Science

224, 1191–98, and used with permission of

Science

238 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

A somewhat remarkable instance has occurred recently on this coast. A noise, as if firing of guns, has been

heard, nearly at the same time, at different stations, lying between 2° 30’ and 5° 30’ of south latitude.

The noise was heard by some individuals in this settlement, on the morning of the 11 April. In the course of that

day, some deputies (or head men) of villages situated at a considerable distance towards the hills, came down,

and reported that they had heard a continual heavy firing since the earliest dawn. It was feared that some feud

had broken out into actual hostility, between villages in the interior. People were sent to make inquiries; but all

was found tranquil.

Our chiefs here, immediately decided, that it was only a contest between Jin (the very devil), with some of his

awkward squad, and the manes of their departed ancestors, who had passed their period of probation in the

mountain, and were in progress towards paradise.

The most natural method of solving the difficulty, is, possibly, by supposing, that there must have been a violent

eruption from some one of the numerous volcanoes amidst our stupendous mountains, centrally situated

between Moco-Moco and Semanco. If so, we shall not, perhaps, ever learn the particulars; for we have very little

communications with, and still less knowledge of, the mountaineers (though some of them are said to be Lord

Monboddo’s men, and have tails,) or of the country they inhabit. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 164)

It was universally remarked in the eastern districts of Java that the explosions were

tremendous, with sufficient violence to shake houses. The Resident of Surakarta (Solo)

noted that:

On Tuesday the 11th the reports were more frequent and violent through the whole day: one of the most

powerful occurred in the afternoon about 2 o’clock, this was succeeded, for nearly an hour by a tremulous

motion of the earth, distinctly indicated by the tremor of large window frames; another comparatively violent

explosion occurred late in the afternoon, but the fall of dust was scarcely perceptible. The atmosphere appeared

to be loaded with a thick vapour: the Sun was rarely visible, and only at short intervals appearing very

obscurely behind a semitransparent substance. (Raffles, 1817)

A correspondent in Gresik (west of Surabaya) records that:

In travelling through the district on the 13th, the appearances were described with very little variation from my

account, and I am universally told that no one remembers, nor does their tradition record so tremendous an

eruption. Some look upon it as typical of a change, of the re-establishment of the former government; others

account for it in an easy way, by reference to the superstitious notions of their legendary tales, and say that the

celebrated Nyai Loroh Kidul has been marrying one of her children on which occasion she has been firing

salutes from her supernatural artillery. They call the ashes the dregs of her ammunition. (Raffles, 1817: 242–43)

Effects were severe in Banyuwangi on the eastern tip of Java, where ash accumulated to

a thickness of 23 cm. This extract of a letter written in that town indicates the

uncommon magnitude of the event:

All reports concur in stating, that so violent and extreme an eruption has not happened within the memory of

the oldest inhabitants, nor within tradition. They speak of similar effects in lesser degree, when an eruption took

place from the volcano Carang Assum, in Bali, about seven years ago; and it was at first supposed that this

mountain was the seat of the eruption in the present instance. The Balinese attributed the event to a recent

dispute between the two Rajahs of Bali Baliling, which terminated in the death of the younger Rajah, by order

of his brother. (Raffles, 1817: 243–44)

Light southeasterly monsoonal winds were blowing at around 6 m s–1, accounting for

the heavier ashfall west of Tambora. Many places within a 600 km radius remained

pitch black for one or two days, accompanied by dramatic lowering of air temperature.

The Resident in Surakarta remarked that:

On the 12th a considerable darkness was occasioned by the abundance of the fall of dust: every operation which

required strong light was almost impossible within doors. The gloomy appearance caused by the rain of dust

‘Udshan abu’ need not be described as it was uniform in every part of this Island to which the discharge

C. Oppenheimer 239

extended. It may be remarkable that an unusual sensation of chillings was felt during the whole of the 12 . . .

his was in great measure (tho’ probably not exclusively) occasioned by the temperature: the thermometer at 10

O’Clock AM stood at 75 and 1/2 degrees of Fahrenheit Scale. (Raffles, 1830)

Presumably, Raffles himself experienced the event, since it is recorded that ‘ashes fell at

Buitenzorg, the residence of the Governor, 30 miles south of Batavia’ (Asiatic Journal,

February 1816, 1: 117). The commander of the Benares, still anchored at Macassar,

recorded that:

During the night of the eleventh the firing was again heard but much louder; and towards morning the reports

were in quick succession, and sometimes like three or four guns fired together, and so heavy, that they shook

the ships, as they did the houses in the fort. Some of the reports seemed so near that I sent people to the mast-

head to look out for the flashes, and immediately the day dawned, I weighed and stood to the southward, with

a view to ascertaining the cause. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 165)

Spotting a ship approaching from the south around daybreak, the captain sent a party

to meet it to glean further intelligence on the events. The Dutchman commanding that

vessel had also heard the firing all night, and also on 5 April when he had been at

Salajer island. Initially mistaking the concussions for an attack by pirates, soldiers had

taken up battle positions in the fort but, as no ships appeared, they surmized that an

eruption must have happened on Sumbawa. The commander of the Benares went

ashore to meet the resident of Macassar, Captain Wood, whose house had been shaken

by some of the detonations. By 08:00 h the sky was increasingly gloomy, and the ship’s

crew soon had to contend with heavy ashfall:

. . . it was very apparent that some extraordinary occurrence had taken place. The face of the heavens to the

southward and westward had assumed the most dismal and lowering aspect, and it was much darker than

when the sun rose. At first it had the appearance of a very heavy squall or storm approaching, but as it came

nearer it assumed a dusky red appearance, and continued to spread very fast over the heavens. By ten it was so

dark that I could scarcely discern the ship from the shore, though not a mile distant. I then returned on board.

It was now evident that an eruption had taken place from some volcano, and that the air was filled with ashes

or volcanic dust, which already began to fall on the decks. By eleven the whole of the heavens was obscured,

except a small space near the horizon to the eastward; the wind being from that quarter prevented for a short

time the approach of the ashes; it appeared like a streak of light at day-break, the mountains in Celebes being

clearly visible, while every other part of the horizon was enveloped in darkness. The ashes now began to fall in

showers, and the appearance altogether was truly awful and alarming. By noon, the light that had remained in

the eastern part of the horizon disappeared, and complete darkness had covered the face of day: our decks were

soon covered with falling matter; the awnings were spread fore and aft to prevent it as much as possible from

getting below, but it was so light and subtle that it pervaded every part of the ship.

The darkness was so profound throughout the remainder of the day, that I never saw any thing equal to it in

the darkest night; it was impossible to see your hand when held up close to the eye. The ashes continued to fall

without intermission through the night. At six in the morning, when the sun ought to have been seen, it still

continued as dark as ever; but at half past seven I had the satisfaction to perceive that the darkness evidently

decreased, and by eight I could faintly discern objects on deck. From this time it began to get lighter very fast,

and by half past nine the shore was distinguishable; the ashes falling in considerable quantities, though not so

heavily as before. The appearance of the ship, when daylight returned, was most extraordinary; the masts,

rigging, decks, and every part being covered with the falling matter; it had the appearance of a calcined pumice

stone, nearly the colour of wood ashes; it lay in heaps of a foot in depth in many parts of the deck, and I am

convinced several tons weight were thrown over board; for although a perfect impalpable powder or dust when

it fell, it was, when compressed, of considerable weight; a pint measure filled with it weighed 121

4oz.; it was

perfectly tasteless, and did not affect the eyes with any painful sensations; it had a faint burning smell, but

nothing like sulphur. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 165–66; note that this report gives a measure of the density

of the uncompacted ash of around 0.6 kg m–3, a typical value for fresh ash deposits.)

240 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

The Sun finally reappeared by noon on Wednesday 12 April, though only faintly

penetrating a dusky and still atmosphere yet charged with ashes. These conditions

prevailed up to 15 April. Meanwhile, the crew of the

Benares set to readying the ship for

passage:

It took several days to clear the ship of the ashes; when mixed with water they formed a tenacious mud, difficult

to be washed off. My chronometer stopped, owing, I imagine, to some particles of dust having penetrated into

it. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 166)

From the estimated magnitude and duration of this ignimbritic phase of the eruption,

the mean intensity must have been around 5 ´108kg s–1. Woods and Wohletz (1991)

calculated that this would have propelled the phoenix clouds to around 23 km above

sea-level, a modest height considering the eruption intensity but reflecting the lower

thermal efficiency of phoenix plumes compared with plinian columns (in terms of the

entrainment of ambient air and heat exchange to it from hot clasts).

4 Tsunami

The pumice flows engulfed the Sanggar peninsula and crossed the sea, reaching the

small island of Moyo due west of the volcano. Tsunami were generated as pyroclastic

flows punched into the sea, and were observed in many places on the night of the 10/11

April. The waves reached a peak height of 4 m at Sanggar around 22:00 h, inundating

the shore:

The sea rose nearly twelve feet higher than it had ever been known to do before, and completely spoiled the

only small spots of rice land in Sang’ir, sweeping away houses and every thing within its reach. (Philipps,

reported in Raffles, 1830)

Considerable damage was also evident in Bima, as related to the commander of the

Benares by the Resident:

The wind was still during the whole time, but the sea uncommonly agitated. The waves rolled in upon the

shore, and filled the lower part of the houses a foot deep; every prow and boat was forced from the anchorage,

and driven on shore; several large prows are now lying a considerable distance above high water mark. (Asiatic

Journal, 2: 167)

The tsunami hit Besuki in eastern Java (500 km) by midnight (therefore travelling

around 70 m s–1), and Surabaya, with a height of 1–2 m, throwing boats inland (Asiatic

Journal, February 1816, 1: 117).

Flow deposits must have considerably extended the Sanggar peninsula coastline by

building deltas of pyroclastic material, as has been observed recently in the case of the

Soufrière Hills Volcano eruption on Montserrat. Abundant carbonized tree-trunks that

can be found preserved in the deposits testify to the high temperatures of the pumice

flows. In some coastal areas, the flow deposits contain circular depressions several

hundred metres in diameter, which are probably remnants of explosion craters formed

as the hot flows mixed with seawater. Since the volcano is almost completely

surrounded by the sea, this interaction may have resulted in a nearly circular 40-km-

diameter ash curtain at the time. Inland, the flow deposits have welded together.

C. Oppenheimer 241

5 Pumice rafts

Massive rafts of pumice and tree trunks, some of them several kilometres across, floated

in the Gulf of Saleh and the Flores Sea. Some pumice rafts were almost 5 km across, and

still hindered navigation between Moyo and Sanggar three years after the eruption. The

Benares encountered them when it first approached Sumbawa, and soon ran into diffi-

culties:

On the morning of the fifteenth weighed from Macassar with a very light wind, and on the eighteenth made the

island of Sumbawa. On approaching the coast, passed through great quantities of pumice-stone floating on the

sea, which at first had the appearance of shoals; so much so, that I hove too, and sent a boat to examine one,

which at the distance of less than a mile I took for a dry sand bank, upwards of three miles in length, with black

rocks upon several parts of it, concluding it to have been thrown up during the eruption. It proved to be a

complete mass of pumice floating on the sea, with great numbers of large trunks of trees and logs among it, that

appeared to be burnt and shivered as if blasted by lightning. The boat had much difficulty in pulling through

it; and until we got into the entrance of Bima bay, the sea was literally covered with shoals of pumice and

floating timber.

On the nineteenth arrived in Bima bay; on coming to anchor grounded on the bank off Bima Town, shoaling

suddenly from eight fathoms. As the tide was rising hove off again without any difficulty or danger. I imagine,

the anchorage at Bima must have altered considerably, as, where we grounded, the Ternate cruizer, a few

months since, lay at anchor in six fathoms. The shores of the bay had a most dreary appearance, being entirely

covered with ashes, even up to the summit of the mountains. The perpendicular depth of the ashes, as measured

in the vicinity of Bima town, I found to be three inches and three quarters. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 166)

The pumice rafts were driven by southeast trade winds and by the South Equatorial

Current. The Honourable Company’s ship Fairlie, crossing the Indian Ocean on route

to Calcutta, encountered rafts between 1 and 3 October 1815, about 3600 km west of

Tambora, though the crew mistakenly attributed them to the eruption of a nearby

submarine volcano:

On the 1st of October our latitude at noon was 13 deg. 25 min. S. longitude 84 deg. 0 min. E. we observed

quantities of stuff floating on the surface of the water, which had, to us, the appearance of seaweed, but were

quite astonished to find it burnt cinders, evidently volcanic. The sea was covered with it during the two next

days. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 161)

6 Aftermath

Tambora continued rumbling intermittently at least up to August 1819. The paroxysmal

phase of the eruption rapidly drained the magma reservoir and was accompanied by

collapse of the volcano, toppling a formerly 4000 m (perhaps more than 4300 m

according to Stothers, 1984) high summit and creating a 6 km wide, 1 km deep caldera.

Today, Tambora’s crater rim reaches only 2850 m above sea-level, easily surpassed by

Rinjani volcano on the neighbouring island of Lombok.

A small cone and lava flow, Doro Afi Toi, erupted within the caldera sometime

between 1847 and 1913. A strong earthquake recorded on 13 January 1909 may be

related to this activity. There is no evidence for more recent eruptions.

242 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

III Atmospheric and climatic impacts

The sulfur mass injected into the stratosphere by the eruption has been estimated by

several independent methods including modelling of polar ice core sulfate concentra-

tions (Figure 6), petrological measurements of 1815 tephra, and analysis of atmospheric

optical phenomena (Figure 7, Table 1). The results vary by an order of magnitude but

excluding the outlying estimates, the figures average around 60 Tg of sulfur, i.e., six

times as much as the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 (Read

et al., 1993). It is difficult to

partition this total between the different phases of the eruption and, in particular, to

determine the fractions derived from plinian versus phoenix clouds. Certainly, this

Figure 6 Sulfate concentration in ice cores from (a) Siple Station,

Antarctica, and (b) Central Greenland, accurately dated by counting

oxygen isotope seasonal variations. The spikes prior to Tambora point

to a major equatorial eruption in 1809, which injected around 25–30 Tg

of sulfur into the stratosphere, but the culprit has yet to be identified.

This unknown eruption may explain why global temperatures were

already lower than usual before the eruption of Tambora. Tambora’s

sulfate anomaly is one of the two largest in the Antarctic ice cores for

at least 500 years (along with that associated with the 1453 Kuwae

eruption in the South Pacific, Cole-Dai

et al., 1997)

Source: based on data in Dai

et al. (1991)

(a) (b)

C. Oppenheimer 243

Figure 7 Visible waveband optical depths (above background) at

northern latitudes through time after the eruption, based on astronom-

ical observations and ice core sulfate deposition. Note that Zielinski

(1995) estimates a lower range of optical depths from 0.14 to 0.35 based

on the GISP2 ice core sulfate record

Source: from Stothers, R. 1984: The great Tambora eruption in 1815

and its aftermath. Science

224, 1191–98, and used with permission of

Science.

Table 1 Estimates of the sulfur yield of the 1815 eruption of Tambora

Method Sulfur yield Reference

(Tg S)

Petrologicala>10 Devine

et al., 1984

Petrologicala>43 Sigurdsson and Carey, 1992

Optical depth estimates based on >60 Stothers, 1984

astronomical observations

Antarctic ice core >49 Legrand and Delmas, 1987

Antarctic ice core 120 Langway

et al., 1988

Antarctic ice core 100 Delmas

et al., 1992

Greenland ice core >60–80 Clausen and Hammer, 1988

Greenland ice core >28 Zielinski, 1995

Extrapolation of experimental petrological >98 Scaillet et al., 1998

data

aDifferential sulfur content of matrix glass and melt inclusions scaled by eruption magnitude.

244 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

amount of sulfur can be expected to have had strong impacts on regional and global

climate.

Spectacular sunsets and twilights were observed in London in the summer of 1815.

The twilight glows appeared orange or red near the horizon, purple to pink above, and

were sometimes streaked with diverging dark bands. In the spring and summer of 1816

a persistent ‘dry fog’ was observed in the northeastern USA. According to a report from

New York, the fog reddened and dimmed the Sun such that sunspots were visible to the

naked eye. Neither wind nor rain dispersed the ‘fog’, identifying it as a stratospheric

sulfate aerosol veil. It is claimed that some of the painter J.M.W. Turner’s work in this

period, characterized by lurid orange and red skies, was inspired by the volcanically

induced stratospheric optics.

There is also abundant evidence for extreme weather in 1816, especially in the spring

and summer in northeastern North America, and much of Europe. The folkloric

memories of ‘the year without a summer ’, 1816, still command popular interest in the

northeastern USA. Baron (1992) looked at contemporary meteorological data for the

region, including measurements of temperature, precipitation and wind direction. On 4

June 1816, frosts were reported in Connecticut and, by the following day, most of New

England was gripped by a cold front. On 6 June, snow fell in Albany, New York, and

Dennysville, Maine, and there were killing frosts at Fairfield, Connecticut. Severe frosts

had spread as far south as Trenton, New Jersey, the next day. Such conditions recurred

over the next 3 months, drastically shortening the growing season (Figure 8) and

resulting in almost total failure of main crops. A good impression of the disturbances is

recorded in weather logs for Williamstown, Massachusets, compiled by Chester Dewey,

who was professor of Mathematics and Natural Philosophy at Williams College, MA:

Frosts are extremely rare here in either of the summer months; but this year there was frost in each of them . . .

June 6th the temperature about 44’ through the day–snowed several times . . . June 7th no frost, but the ground

frozen, and water frozen in many places . . . Moist earth was frozen half an inch thick, and could be raised from

round Indian corn, the corn slipping through and standing unhurt. June 8th, some ice was seen in the morning

. . . earth very little frozen . . . wind still strong and piercing from the N.W. Cucumbers and other vegetables

nearly destroyed. . . . June 10th, severe frost in the morning . . . . Ten days after the frost, the trees on the sides

of the hills presented for miles the appearance of having been scorched. June 29th and 30th some frost. July 9th,

frost, which killed parts of cucumbers. August 22, cucumbers killed by the frost. August 29th, severe frost. Some

fields of Indian corn were killed on the low grounds, while that on the higher was unhurt. Very little Indian corn

became ripe in the region. (Dewey, 1821)

Diaries also record personal experiences of the extraordinary weather of 1816.

Chauncey Jerome of Plymouth, Connecticut, writing in 1860, recalled:

I well remember the 7th of June . . . dressed throughout with thick woollen clothes and an overcoat on. My

hands got so cold that I was obliged to lay down my tools and put on a pair of mittens . . . On the 10th of June,

my wife brought in some clothes that had been spread on the ground the night before, which were frozen stiff

as in winter. (From Stommel and Stommel, 1983)

Canada also experienced severe weather and the same cold wave that hit the USA. In

Montreal, snow fell on 6 and 8 June 1816. 30 cm of snow accumulated near Quebec City

from 6 to 10 June.

Briffa and Jones (1992) examined contemporary meteorological observations and

tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct 1816 temperature, pressure and precipitation

patterns across Europe. They showed that the summer does stand out as exceptionally

cold – the coldest since the beginning of their records in 1750 – and taking place in what

C. Oppenheimer 245

was already a cold decade. Summer temperatures across much of western and central

Europe were 1–2°C cooler than the average for the period 1810–1819 and up to 3°C

cooler than the mean during 1951–1970. Rainfall was also anomalously high across

most of Europe except the eastern Mediterranean during the summer of 1816. Weather

Figure 8 Length of growing season in (a) southern Maine, (b)

southern New Hampshire, and (c) eastern Massachusetts, between

1790 and 1840. Short growing seasons occurred in 1808, 1824, 1829,

1834 and 1836 but 1816 stands out as by far the briefest

Source: based on data in Baron (1992)

246 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

recorded in Ireland fits in closely with the summer cooling, winter warming expected

for the northern hemisphere response to major sulfate aerosol veils:

In 1816 the spring was unusually late; the summer and autumn excessively wet, cold, and cloudy: the quantity

of rain which fell in this year measured in the gauge nearly 31 inches, a circumstance perhaps unprecedented

in this country; there were 142 wet days, and these principally in the summer and autumnal months. The mean

temperature of the spring, summer, and autumn, was 3 degrees below that of the preceding year . . . the winter

of 1816 was remarkably mild. The year 1817 was almost as remarkable as 1816 for being wet and cold. (Harty,

1820)

More recent dendrochronological studies carried out by Briffa

et al. (1998) confirmed

the distribution of these summer coolings both sides of the Atlantic (Figure 9). In their

Figure 9 Reconstructed surface temperature anomalies computed

from latewood density in tree rings for summer 1816

Source: based on data in Briffa

et al. (1998)

C. Oppenheimer 247

reconstruction of northern hemisphere summer temperatures, 1816 is one of the very

coldest of the past six centuries, second only to 1601 (the year after the eruption of

Huaynaputina in Peru). The northern hemisphere summers of 1817 and 1818 are also

anomalously cold (5th and 22nd coldest in the 600-year record). The cold conditions

appear not to have reached western North America in 1816 (Lough, 1992; Briffa

et al.,

1998). Briffa et al. (1998) estimated mean northern hemisphere (land and marine)

surface temperature anomalies in the summers of 1816, 1817 and 1818 of –0.51, –0.44

and –0.29 K, respectively. The climate records are in reasonable agreement with the

results of climate modelling conducted by Vupputuri (1992) who estimated a global

peak surface cooling of 1 K in 1816 (Figure 10).

As well as a cooler summer, parts of Europe, at least, seem to have experienced

stormier winters. Dawson

et al. (1997) used an extended meteorological record collected

in Edinburgh, and dating back to 1770, to test the correlation between gale frequency

and large magnitude volcanic eruptions. They defined a ‘gale day’ as one in which

wind speeds measured at 10 m height reaches or exceeds 34 knots for at least a ten

minute period. Their record is the longest of its kind for Europe and indicated increased

winter storminess following the eruptions of Krakatau and El Chichón as well as

Tambora (the record they used ran to 1990 and so was not able to shed light on

Pinatubo’s possible impacts on Scotland).

Ice core chemistry provides further information on the atmospheric impacts of the

eruption. Laj

et al. (1993) examined the Greenland ice core and observed that the ratio

of winter-to-summer deposition of NO3

–increased following the eruptions of both

Tambora and Katmai (1912). They attributed this to condensation and removal of

stratospheric HNO3from the arctic stratosphere during the winter, and slower

formation of HNO3during summer as a result of removal of OH through oxidation of

SO2. Looking at Antarctic ice core chemical stratigraphy, Delmas

et al. (1992) found no

evidence for changes in atmospheric chlorine associated with Tambora, suggesting that

the massive amount of chlorine thought to have been released by the eruption (100 Tg)

was rapidly and efficiently scavenged by the troposphere as the eruption clouds

ascended.

Figure 10 Modelled global stratospheric and surface temperature

changes following the Tambora eruption

Source: based on data in Vupputuri (1992)

248 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

IV Human tragedy

The devastating effects of an eruption of this magnitude are hard to imagine – at this

remove in time, we lack firm evidence of the nature and numbers of casualties but do

have some important contemporary sources that illustrate the terrible circumstances

that befell not only Sumbawa but the neighbouring island of Lombok, and possibly Bali

and beyond. The consequences for the local population were not realized until ships

reached ports on Sumbawa. The

Benares dropped anchor at Bima on 19 April, followed

by the

Dispatch, which was on route from Ambon, reaching Bima on 22 April.

1 Local and regional impacts

The damage at Sanggir is recorded first by the crew of the

Dispatch. They had mistaken

Sanggir Bay for Bima and had, with difficulty, anchored and sent a boat ashore. A ship’s

officer met the Rajah of Sanggir and learnt that:

. . . the greater part of the town and a number of people had been destroyed by the eruption; that the whole of

his country was entirely desolate, and the crops destroyed. . . . a considerable distance from the shore being

completely filled up with pumice-stones, ashes, and logs of timber; the houses appeared beaten down and

covered with ashes. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 167)

Further destruction was witnessed in Sumbawa Besar by another ship’s crew putting

ashore there for water. They found boats strewn inland by tsunami and many corpses.

Sailing away, they were trapped by a pumice raft 0.6 m thick the entire night of 12 April.

While Lieutenant Philipps was on his mercy- and fact-finding mission to Sumbawa

and travelling from Bima to Dompu he must have observed an unimaginably desperate

scene:

On my trip towards the western part of the island, I passed through nearly the whole of Dompo and a consid-

erable part of Bima. The extreme misery to which the inhabitants have been reduced is shocking to behold.

There were still on the road side the remains of several corpses, and the marks of where many others had been

interred: the villages almost entirely deserted and the houses fallen down, the surviving inhabitants having

dispersed in search of food. (Raffles, 1817, 1830)

Poor hygiene, contaminated water supplies and a malnourished population resulted in

the spread of disease in the survivors. Increased diarrhoeal disease commonly occurs

after volcanic eruptions, often due to contamination of water by ashfall.

In Dompo, the sole subsistence of the inhabitants for some time past has been the heads of the different species

of palm, and the stalks of the papaya and plantain

Since the eruption, a violent diarrhoea has prevailed in Bima, Dompo, and Sang’ir, which has carried off a great

number of people. It is supposed by the natives to have been caused by drinking water which has been

impregnated with ashes; and horses have also died, in great numbers, from a similar complaint.

The Rajah of Sang’ir came to wait on me at Dompo, on the 3d instant. The suffering of the people there appears,

from his account, to be still greater than in Dompo. The famine has been so severe that even one of his own

daughters died from hunger. I presented him with three coyangs of rice in your name, for which he appeared

most truly thankful.

A messenger who returned yesterday from Sambawa, relates that the fall of ashes has been heavier at Sambawa

than on this side of the Gulf, and that an immense number of people have been starved: they are now parting

with their horses and buffaloes for a half or quarter rupee’s worth of rice or corn. The distress has, however, I

C. Oppenheimer 249

trust, been alleviated by this time, as the brig, with sixty-three coyangs of rice, from Java, arrived there the day

he was leaving it. (Raffles, 1817, 1830)

Sigurdsson and Carey (1992) estimated that the eruption released around 100 Tg of

chlorine (as HCl) and 70 Tg of fluorine (as HF). Fluorine is readily adsorbed on to ash

particles and is likely to have been quickly flushed into the soil available for uptake by

vegetation. It is possible that fluorine poisoning was widespread in livestock and

humans. Inhalation of fine ash is also likely to have caused widespread respiratory

disease in the areas affected by heavy ashfall. After the Pinatubo eruption, several

hundred evacuees died from diseases while in refugee camps. Deaths, primarily caused

by measles (31%), diarrhoea (29%) and respiratory infections (22%), reached 349 in the

first 12 weeks following the eruption (Surmieda

et al., 1992). Similar ailments must have

afflicted a large fraction of the population of Sumbawa following the Tambora eruption,

and probably with much higher mortality. Estimates of the number of casualties vary

considerably and there are no really reliable data available. Philipps tried to collate

some statistics:

Of the whole villages of Tomboro, Tempo, containing about forty inhabitants, is the only one remaining. In

Pekáté no vestige of a house is left: twenty-six of the people, who were at Sumbawa at the time, are the whole

of the population who have escaped. From the most particular inquiries I have been able to make, there were

certainly not fewer than twelve thousand individuals in Tomboro and Pekáté at the time of the eruption, of

whom only five or six survive. The trees and herbage of every description, along the whole of the north and

west sides of the peninsula, have been completely destroyed, with the exception of a high point of land near the

spot where the village of Tomboro stood; on it a few trees still remain. In the night of the eruption, two men and

two women, I am informed, escaped to this point, and were saved. I have sent in search of them, but have not

yet been able to get hold of them; no person has yet been along the eastern side of the hill. (Raffles, 1817, 1830)

Zollinger (1855) concluded that about 10 000 people were killed during the eruption,

probably by pyroclastic flows, a further 38 000 died from starvation on Sumbawa. He

estimated another 10 000 deaths from disease and hunger on Lombok. The most widely

quoted statistics today are derived from the work of Petroeschevsky (1949), who

estimated 48 000 victims on Sumbawa and 44 000 on Lombok, around 35% and 23% of

the total population of the islands, respectively. However, Tanguy et al. (1998) have

challenged Petroeschevsky’s figures, explaining that the figures for Lombok, in

particular, appeared ‘to be entirely unfounded’, being based on untraceable references.

They considered Raffles’ and Zollinger’s reports the most trustworthy but pointed out

that there may have been many additional victims on Bali and even eastern Java from

famine and disease. They tentatively suggested 11 000 deaths from ash falls and flows,

and 49 000 from famine and epidemic disease. Assuming that Philipps’ account is the

most contemporary and accurate, we may make a minor modification and push the

number directly killed by the eruption up to 12 000. The total figure of 71 000 makes the

Tambora eruption the deadliest known in history. In the database of volcanic disasters

compiled by Tanguy et al. (1998), which begins with Laki in 1783 and ends with

Montserrat 1997, Tambora accounts for nearly 30% of the total number of deaths.

If anything, the casualty figures quoted above are likely to be underestimated since it

is probable that there were many deaths on Bali and perhaps even east Java, though

there are conflicting indications in the latter case:

The roofs of the houses at Bangeewanzee fell in from the weight of the ashes . . . Most of the inhabitants of

Sumbawa, who are not buried, must be starved, and as the crops in Bali and the east end of Java have been

destroyed, they will also suffer considerably. [Letter dated August 1815: Asiatic Journal, April 1816, 1: 322–23)

250 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

In Banyuwangi and the adjacent part of the Island, on which the cloud of ashes spent its force, the injury was

more extensive. A large quantity of paddy was totally destroyed, and all the plantation more or less injured. One

hundred and twenty-six horses and eighty-six head of cattle also perished, chiefly from want of forage during

a month from the time of the eruption. (Raffles, 1830)

Damage was also considerable in Moressa (either near Ujung Pandang, Sulawesi, or

possibly Moresa island off the southeast coast of Kalimantan). The commander of the

Benares recorded . . .

On going on shore at Moressa I found the face of the country covered to the depth of an inch and a quarter.

Great fears were entertained for the crop of paddy that was on the ground, the young plants being completely,

beaten down and covered by it; the fish, in the ponds at Moressa were killed, and floating on the surface, and

many small birds lying dead on the ground. (Asiatic Journal, August 1816, 2: 166)

Further afield in Java, crops were spared because ‘the cultivators every where took the

precaution to shake off the ashes from the growing paddy as they fell’ (Raffles, 1830).

The heavy rainfall on 17 April also helped to wash away the ash. This . . .

. . . prevented much injury to crops, and removed an appearance of epidemic disease, which was beginning to

prevail. This was especially the case at Batavia, where, for two or three days preceding the rain, many persons

were attacked with fever. (Raffles, 1830)

2 Global impacts

Far beyond Indonesia, the pattern of climatic anomalies has been blamed for the

severity of a typhus epidemic, which raged through southeast Europe and the eastern

Mediterranean between 1816 and 1819. The first great epidemic of cholera broke out in

Bengal in 1816–17. Lamb (1995) concluded that taking account of these epidemics and

the famines of 1816–17, this period witnessed one of the greatest world disasters

associated with climate change. How do such allegations stand up to close scrutiny?

The killing frosts in New England all but destroyed the main crops in 1816. Further

south in North Carolina, towards the American grain-producing heartlands, the

outcome of the harvest was summed up on 1 September as follows:

The very cool and dry weather in spring and summer hurt our grain fields badly, and it was with sorrowful and

troubled hearts that we gathered our second crop of hay and our corn crop, which were so scanty that we

reaped only a third of what we usually get, and wondered how we could subsist until next year ’s harvest.

(Fries, 1947)

Many livestock died through lack of feed in New England during winter 1816–17.

Baron (1992) suggests that the region was probably particularly vulnerable to disaster

because, especially in northern New England, farming was already taking place on cli-

matologically marginal lands, and there was increased competition from the mid-

western USA and central Canada.

Despite the severe weather in Canada, its population avoided serious social distress

thanks to an embargo on grain exports between July and September 1816 and to its

favourable ratio of population to resources (Post, 1977). Meanwhile, in Europe, the

summer of 1816 was also miserable, reflected in Lord Byron’s poem,

Darkness

(part of

which is quoted as the frontispiece of this article). Byron wrote this whilst staying in

Geneva, brooding darkly on the bloody turn of European history during the

Napoleonic wars. The desperate times are also said to have inspired his companion in

C. Oppenheimer 251

Geneva, Mary Shelley, to write Frankenstein. The cool temperatures and heavy rains

resulted in failed harvests in parts of the western British Isles, and families in Wales

travelled long distances as refugees, begging for food. Famine was prevalent in the

north and southwest of Ireland following failures of wheat, oat and potato harvests.

Indeed, many parts of Europe were affected:

Melancholy accounts have been received from all parts of the Continent of the unusual wetness of the season;

property in consequence swept away by inundation and irretrievable injuries done to the vine yards and corn

crops. In several provinces of Holland, the rich grass lands are all under water, and scarcity and high prices are

naturally apprehended and dreaded. In France the interior of the country has suffered greatly from the floods

and heavy rains. (The Norfolk Chronicle, 20 July 1816)

Should the present wet weather continue, the corn will inevitably be laid, and the effects of such a calamity at

such a time cannot be otherwise than ruinous to the farmers and even to the people at large. (The Times, 20 July

1816)

Post (1977) characterized the period 1816–19 as the last great subsistence crisis to affect

the Western world – 1816–17 witnessed the worst famine in over a century. He used

grain prices as a proxy for harvest outcomes through the second half of the 1810s,

demonstrating a doubling of costs between 1815 and 1817 (Figure 11). This hit people

hard, driving the price of bread – the principal food in popular budgets – beyond the

reach even of the majority employed at customary wage levels (Post, 1977). He

acknowledged the role of new economic and political forces and the influence of post-

conflict dislocation and readjustment following the Napoleonic Wars in making the

disaster possible but argued strongly that hemispheric climatic disturbances precipitat-

ed the famine and food scarcities of 1816–17 promoting the financial panic and

depression in the following two years. ‘The harvest failures of 1816 came at an

inopportune time, superimposing a subsistence crisis not only on a stagnating

economy but also on a Western society still unsettled as a residue of the war years’

(Post, 1977).

The crisis was severe in the German lands, especially in the countryside and

southwest, where food prices exceeded those in urban and northern areas. When Carl

von Clausewitz toured the Prussian Rhineland in the spring of 1817, he found a bleak

scene:

The author, who traveled on horseback through the Eifel region in spring 1817, where he passed the night in

villages and little towns, often had a heartrending view of this misery, because these areas belong to the poorest

classes in the land. He saw ruined figures, scarcely resembling men, prowling around the fields searching for

food among the unharvested and already half rotten potatoes that never grew to maturity. (von Clausewitz,

1922)

Popular reaction to the dire circumstances included demonstrations in grain markets

and in front of bakeries and, in some regions, riots, looting and arson (Post, 1977). In

May 1816, riots broke out in various parts of East Anglia, including Norfolk, Suffolk,

Huntingdon and Cambridge. Acts of protest included destruction of threshing

machines, and torching of barns and grain sheds. The insurrection culminated in

formation of marauding groups of rioters armed with heavy sticks studded with iron

spikes and carrying flags proclaiming ‘Bread or Blood’. The riot act was read,

threatening the death penalty, and the disturbances were quelled.

Typhus epidemics are associated with cold and damp, poor hygiene and louse infes-

tations; war and famine have been typical factors promoting explosive epidemics of

252 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

typhus. A doctor working in the Belfast Fever Hospital detailed the epidemiology of

typhus outbreaks in Ireland in a letter written in April 1818 as follows:

I consider the predisposing causes of the present Epidemic to have been the great and universal distress

occasioned among the poorer classes, by the scarcity which followed the bad harvest of 1816, together with the

depressed state of trade and manufactures of all kinds. The low condition of bodily health arising from the

deficiency and bad quality of the food; the want of cleanliness both in the persons and dwellings of the poor

. . . I consider the contagion to have been rapidly spread by the numbers wandering about in search of

subsistence, and also by the establishments for the distribution of soup and other provisions among the poor

where multitudes were crowded together, many of whom must have come from infected houses, or were

perhaps even laboring under the early stages of the disease. (Harty, 1820: 158–59)

Figure 11 Indices of wholesale grain prices in Europe and North

America from 1815 to 1820 based on national, regional or market

averages. The figures are standardized to an index of 100 for all areas

in 1815 and represent wheat prices except for Austria, Bavaria,

Wurttemberg, Saxony and Poland, for which rye prices are quoted.

They present a picture of deficient harvests and increased demand

Source: data from Post (1977)

C. Oppenheimer 253

Harty (1820) estimated that around 800 000 people were infected during the epidemic

in Ireland, and that 44,300 ‘perished from the joint ravages of Famine, Dysentry, and

Fever ’. The typhus epidemic visited almost every town and village in England, and was

reported in many cities in Scotland (Post, 1977). Europe in 1816 was already experienc-

ing social and economic distress at the end of 25 years of war, not least owing to the

sudden appearance of several million men on the labour market after their demobiliza-

tion from the military. These upheavals created vulnerability, and the combination of

colder weather, migration resulting from famine and a malnourished population would

have represented highly conducive conditions for an epidemic. It seems plausible that

Tambora’s eruption, and its global climatic reach, really did play a role in the outbreaks

of typhus, dysentery and other ailments in 1816–19. On the question of the link

suggested between climate change and the cholera outbreak in Bengal, the evidence in

favour is weak, however. According to Pant

et al. (1992), 1816 appears to have been a

normal monsoonal rainfall year without any reports of drought or flooding throughout

the country. Furthermore, the epidemic is generally thought to have arisen as a result of

troop movements in India displacing people out of the endemic source of the disease,

and the epidemic did not reach Europe until 1831–32 (Pollitzer, 1959).

V Tambora in context

Tambora’s 1815 eruption ranks as the largest

known

event in the past two millennia. In

terms of magnitude it falls in between the larger »40 kyr BP Campanian ignimbrite

eruption from the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy (2.7 ´1014 kg), and the »3600 yr BP

‘Minoan’ eruption of Santorini (3.3 ´1013 kg). Comparable events to Tambora in terms

of magnitude include the AD 1030 eruption of Baitoushan on the China/North Korea

border, the »6300 yr BP Kikai eruption, Japan, and the »7600 yr BP eruption of Mount

Mazama, Oregon, better known as Crater Lake. Decker (1990) indicates that events of

Tambora’s magnitude or greater occur with a frequency of two to four per millennium.

However, consideration of the known eruptions of magnitude 5 ´1013 kg and up, that

occurred in the past 2000 years, suggests a frequency closer to one per 1000 years (Pyle,

1995). But not all large eruptions have been identified. In particular, the ice core record

indicates a massive sulfate layer in 1259, the strongest volcanic marker in the past 7000

years of the GISP2 (Greenland) record, and four times the magnitude of the Tambora

layer (Zielinski, 1995). The responsible volcano is not known (Stothers, 2000) but a

Tambora-sized eruption is certainly plausible (Oppenheimer, 2003). Putting this

information together, and taking into account the uncertainties in estimates of eruption

magnitudes, suggests a best estimate of the frequency of >5 ´1013 kg events of one to

two per 1000 years.

A compilation of dendrochronological and ice core data for the past 600 years is

plotted in Figure 12. The tree ring anomalies have been correlated against other clima-

tological records to reveal a number of cool northern hemisphere summers that are

probably the result of volcanic eruptions. As discussed in Section 3, the Tambora

eruption precedes three cold northern hemisphere summers. Surprisingly, the coldest

summer identified in this record falls in the year following the 1600 Huaynaputina

eruption in Peru. Despite its lower magnitude and higher latitude (in the southern

hemisphere) than the Tambora eruption, this event appears responsible for a

254 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

Figure 12 GISP2 ice core volcanic markers (lower curve) and northern hemisphere land and marine surface

temperature anomalies obtained from tree ring latewood density data (upper curve). The sulfate record was

obtained by an empirical orthogonal function analysis of the glaciochemical data series (Zielinski

et al., 1996).

The temperature anomalies are relative to the 1881–1960 mean for April–September as reported by Briffa

et al.,

(1998). GISP2 data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado at Boulder.

Both datasets archived by the World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, National Geophysical Data Center,

Boulder, Colorado (Contribution Series #98-022 for the tree-ring anomalies). Note that some of the identifica-

tions of these anomalies with known eruptions are more speculative than others (see Zielinski, 2000, for a

discussion of dendrochronological, ice core and other records of volcanism)

pronounced northern hemisphere summer cooling of around 0.8 K. Both records

provide the basis for many of the comparative data shown in Table 2. The table partic-

ularly emphasizes the magnitude and scale of human impact of the Tambora eruption.

For comparisons of volcanic forcing of climate with other factors (e.g., greenhouse gas

increases, solar variability) see Hansen

et al. (1997) and Crowley (2000).

C. Oppenheimer 255

Table 2 Comparison of selected volcanic eruptions of the past two millennia

Eruption year and Column Magnitude Sulfur Northern Fatalitiese

volcano height (kg)byield (Tg hemisphere

(km)aS)csummer

temperature

anomaly (K)d

»181 Taupo 51 7.7 ´1013 ?6.5 ? Unlikely

»969 Baitoushan 25 5.8 ´1013 >2 ? ?

»1258 Unknown ? ? >100 ? ?

»1452 Kuwae ? >8 ´1013 ?40 –0.5 ?

1600 Huaynaputina 46 2.1 ´1013 23 –0.8 »1400

1815 Tambora 43 1.4 ´1014 28 –0.5 >71 000

1883 Krakatau 25 3.0 ´1013 15 –0.3 36 600

1902 Santa Maria 34 2.2 ´1013 11fNo anomaly 7000–13 000

1912 Katmai 32 2.5 ´1013 10 –0.4 2

1980 Mt St Helens 19 7.1 ´1011 0.5 No anomaly 57

1982 El Chichón 32 3.0 ´1012 3.5 In the noise >2000

1985 Nevado del Ruíz 27 4.5 ´1010 0.35 No anomaly 23 000

1991 Pinatubo 34 1.3–1.8 ´1013 10 –0.5 1202

Notes:

aPeak eruption column heights for plinian phases estimated by Carey and Sigurdsson

(1989) except for Pinatubo, Baitoushan and Huyanaputina for which heights were taken from

Holasek

et al. (1996), Horn and Schmincke (2000) and Adams

et al. (2001), respectively.

bTotal eruption magntitude for multiple phases of eruption and combining plinian and phoenix

cloud ashfall and associated pyroclastic flow deposits where applicable, data mainly from Carey

and Sigurdsson (1989) and Pyle (2000), and references given for column height, plus Monzier

al. (1994) for Kuwae.

cStratospheric sulfur yield estimated from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer data (for eruptions

since 1980), and from ice core and astronomical observations (for earlier eruptions) from Zielinski

(1995) and De Silva and Zielinski (1998) (note that the value given here for Tambora is the one

quoted by Zielinski (1995), for consistency with the other amounts reported in the Table, but see

main text and Table 1).

dEstimated northern hemisphere summertime temperature anomaly derived from tree ring

chronologies reported by Briffa

et al. (1998) for eruptions before Mt St Helens (note that other

records do indicate a

»0.2 K northern hemisphere summer cooling in 1903).

eCombined fatality estimates for various causes of death from the compilation of Tanguy

et al.

(1998) except for Tambora (see text) and Huaynaputina for which the figures quoted by Simkin

and Siebert (1994) are used.

f1902 was a memorable year for volcanism with major eruptions at Mont Pelée (Martinique) and

Soufrière (St Vincent) as well as the Santa Maria event, i.e., the volcanic sulfate marker in the ice

core record may represent fallout from any combination of the aerosol veils of these different

eruptions

256 Consequences of Tambora volcano eruption 1815

VI Summary and implications

The eyewitness accounts provide a vivid picture of the appalling devastation during,

and following, the eruption, in Sumbawa and neighbouring islands. An estimated 71

000 lives were lost in Sumbawa and Lombok alone. The violent eruption of 50 km3

dense-rock equivalent of intermediate, volatile-charged magma pumped around 60 Tg

of sulfur into the stratosphere. This resulted in a peak stratospheric loading

approaching 200 Tg of sulfate aerosol, noted at the time across the globe in the guise of

various atmospheric optical phenomena. Evidence linking the eruption to the recorded

extreme weather events in Europe and North America is found in the observed pattern

of northern hemisphere summer cooling and winter warming and storminess.

Interestingly, some early commentators on the volcanic culpability in the cold decade of

the 1810s pointed to the warm northern winter of 1816, as well as the low temperatures

that prevailed before the eruption, as evidence

against

a volcanic cause of the climate

change. Now we see that the temporal and spatial pattern of surface temperatures in

1815–17 is consistent with recent observations after Pinatubo as well as modelling

efforts (Kirchner

et al., 1999). The cold climate prior to 1815 may even have been partly

induced by a Krakatau-sized stratospheric aerosol veil cast over the Earth by an

unknown equatorial eruption in 1809 (Figure 6; Dai

et al., 1991; Chenoweth, 2001). This

raises the issue of the potential of repeated high sulfur-yield eruptions being able to

knock the climate system for longer periods than the 1–2 year coolings observed after

individual eruptions such as Krakatau 1883 or Pinatubo 1991. In particular this has been

considered as an important forcing factor in decadal-scale climate variability during the

Little Ice Age (Crowley, 2000), especially during the seventeenth century when a

number of unidentified eruptions appear to have caused significant summer cooling

events seen in the dendrochronological record for the northern hemisphere (Figure 12).

The arguments linking extreme weather in parts of the northern hemisphere to poor

harvests in 1816, and consequent sharp rises in grain prices in Europe and America, are

strong. The economic, demographic and political upheavals following the Napoleonic

wars provided conditions that exacerbated the agricultural crisis, leading to famine,

epidemic disease, and further social disturbances in many parts of the Western world.

Post (1977) goes further to suggest that the series of social and economic reversals

experienced in these years initiated a political shift to the right, especially in France and

Germany: ‘The few weak liberal compromises that made a timid appearance in 1815–16

vanished in a climate of mistrust and fear in 1819–20’. He concludes that the political

reaction of European governments to the epidemics, commercial depression, unem-

ployment, hunger, rioting, widespread begging and vagrancy, and large-scale

emigration ‘can be seen as the last link in a connected sequence of events that began

with the meteorological effects of the volcanic dust clouds of 1815’.

Conventional wisdom dictates that such dire consequences to volcanic eruptions are

unlikely to result today because of the way in which the international community can

respond collectively to disasters. However, one only need consider the catalogue of

recent famines to have afflicted many parts of Africa, and the slow and often ineffective

international response to them, to realize that the modern world is far from immune to

the potentially catastrophic impacts of major volcanic eruptions such as Tambora’s 1815

outburst. Regional air traffic could be disrupted for days to weeks during and in the

aftermath of a similar eruption and, in particular, reaching the devastated area around

the volcano would be hampered by ash on the ground as well as in the air. The regional

scale economic impacts arising from such a disaster could well have a global reach.

What kind of signals might presage a future Tambora-sized event? It is worth noting

that the climactic 1815 eruption was preceded by 3 years of precursory activity, which

included minor ash eruptions. Unfortunately, we have almost no information on

whether there was a progression in these signals, for example, in respect of frequency

and magnitude of explosive activity, felt earthquakes, or style or composition of gas

emissions. Three years is quite an extended period, significantly longer, for example,

than the several weeks of reported premonitory activity at Pinatubo in 1991. One of the

outstanding challenges to volcanology is to develop reliable methods for predicting the

nature and timing of eruptions, and the parallel needs for effective communication of

risk management strategies to people concerned. How a population would cope with

several years of uncertainty in the lead up to a potentially devastating event of

Tambora’s magnitude is very difficult to gauge. Assessing the probabilities of different

sizes of possible eruptions at a restless volcano is equally challenging. What we can say,

is that there is perhaps as high as a 10% chance of a Tambora-sized eruption occurring

somewhere in the next 50 years, and that it is more likely to be in Indonesia than any

other country.

Acknowledgements

I am grateful to Owen Tucker who produced most of the graphics shown here, David

Pyle for discussions and the anonymous referees for their comments on the original

manuscript. This paper is dedicated to the memory of Dick Chorley (1927–2002), a

polymathic scholar, and a most generous and cheerful colleague.

C. Oppenheimer 257

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Sep 2024
J PALEOLIMNOL

Varved lake sediments offer valuable insight into past environmental conditions with high temporal resolution and precise chronological control. A combination of diatom and geochemical analyses of the recently deposited sediments of Odensjön, a small dimictic lake in southern Sweden, shows alternating light and dark laminae composed of greater amounts of biogenic silica and organic matter, respectively. As confirmed by independent radiometric dating and Pb pollution data, and supported by scanning electron microscopy of individual laminae, these features represent ongoing deposition of biogenic varves. Corresponding diatom and geochemical data obtained from a 92-cm long freeze core provide evidence of substantial lake-ecosystem dynamics during the last six centuries, related mainly to variations in light penetration and wind shear driven by human-induced changes in catchment vegetation. The diatom assemblage of Odensjön’s varved sediments is dominated by planktonic species, primarily Asterionella formosa, Fragilaria saxoplanktonica and Discostella lacuskarluki during periods of forest cover, while increased catchment openness from the mid-1500s to the late 1800s led to increased abundance of Lindavia comensis. Long-term variations in climate and land use, mediated through changing length of the ice-cover season and nutrient input, respectively, probably contributed to the observed trends, as well as to variations in the appearance and visibility of the varve record across the sampled sediment sequence. Odensjön represents the southernmost varved sediment record in Fennoscandia documented to date, offering potential to study the effects of various types of external forcing on its sensitive lacustrine ecosystem since the Late Weichselian deglaciation. In the present study, we investigated the possibility of assessing the local impacts of two major, historically documented volcanic events, Laki 1783–84 and Tambora 1815, which are known to have affected European societies. Although the mildly alkaline waters of the lake are well buffered and hence relatively resilient to volcanic acid deposition, a minor response to the Laki eruption may be recorded in the diatom stratigraphy.

Bencana di Ring of Fire dan Teori Kegempaan

Book

Full-text available

Aug 2024

Azhari Aziz Samudra

Buku ini dapat menjadi bahan referensi bagi mahasiswa Program Doktor Ilmu Publik Administrasi, Kebijakan Publik dan Mitigasi Bencana, pemangku kepentingan dan pembuat kebijakan di berbagai tingkat pemerintahan di Indonesia. Tujuannya adalah agar mereka memahami secara komprehensif bencana alam seperti gempa bumi, tsunami, dan kondisi sesar di Indonesia, dan di dunia. Dengan memahami penyebab, dampak bencana, dan solusinya, mereka dapat berkontribusi secara efektif terhadap keselamatan bangsa dan masyarakat. Buku ini mengingatkan hal-hal yang mendesak bagi kita untuk memahami realitas geografis wilayah Indonesia, yang terletak di Cincin Api Pasifik, dengan 20 negara lainnya. Hal ini menekankan kerentanan seismik di wilayah ini, dan pentingnya informasi yang lebih baik dan proaktif dalam pendekatan kebijakan publik. Buku ini terdiri dari 2 Bagian dan 10 Bab. Bagian 1 yang menjelaskan Catatan Sejarah: Sesar, Gempa Bumi dan Tsunami di Indonesia sejak tahun 458; Catatan sejarah tsunami di Indonesia; Naskah asli catatan sejarah Gempa 1797; Fenomena dan Teori Gempa Bumi Black Swan; Manajemen Resiko, Episentrum dan Seismograf. Bagian 2 menjelaskan Penyebab Bencana, Kawasan Cincin Api, Hiposentrum, Pergerakan Tanah, Letusan Gunung Berapi, Tsunami dan tanda-tandanya, Banjir, Aliran Permukaan, Sesar, Sesar Purba, Sesar Laut, dan Sesar di Lima Benua dan dampaknya pada Indonesia. Dengan adanya buku ini diharapkan dapat menambah khazanah ilmu pengetahuan Kebencanaan dan bermanfaat untuk pengambil kebijakan.

Is the Tonga Eruption (2022) a New Climate Change Threat for the Pacific Basin?

Chapter

Nov 2024

The eruption of the submarine volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in the Pacific Ocean on January 15th 2022 generated one of the most important volcanic events in the modern era. As a consequence of the eruption, a tsunami was produced, affecting the coasts of several countries of the Pacific Basin. It is estimated that the amount of water vapor ejected into the atmosphere as a result of the eruption could alter the Earth’s climate to the point of heating it in the coming years, or cause the reverse effect—as occurred during the eruption of the Tambora volcano in 1815. We believe that, along with the study of the anthropogenic effects of climate change, we must raise awareness about the need to develop initiatives to analyze natural origin dangers representing a serious threat to the societies and economies of the countries of the Pacific Basin in the coming decades.

Dynamical downscaling and data assimilation for a cold-air outbreak in the European Alps during the Year Without a Summer of 1816

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2024
CLIM PAST

The “Year Without a Summer” in 1816 was characterized by extraordinarily cold and wet periods in central Europe, and it was associated with severe crop failures, famine, and socio-economic disruptions. From a modern perspective, and beyond its tragic consequences, the summer of 1816 represents a rare opportunity to analyze the adverse weather (and its impacts) after a major volcanic eruption. However, given the distant past, obtaining the high-resolution data needed for such studies is a challenge. In our approach, we use dynamical downscaling, in combination with 3D variational data assimilation of early instrumental observations, for assessing a cold-air outbreak in early June 1816. We find that the cold spell is well represented in the coarse-resolution 20th Century Reanalysis product which is used for initializing the regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Our downscaling simulations (including a 19th century land use scheme) reproduce and explain meteorological processes well at regional to local scales, such as a foehn wind situation over the Alps with much lower temperatures on its northern side. Simulated weather variables, such as cloud cover or rainy days, are simulated in good agreement with (eye) observations and (independent) measurements, with small differences between the simulations with and without data assimilation. However, validations with partly independent station data show that simulations with assimilated pressure and temperature measurements are closer to the observations, e.g., regarding temperatures during the coldest night, for which snowfall as low as the Swiss Plateau was reported, followed by a rapid pressure increase thereafter. General improvements from data assimilation are also evident in simple quantitative analyses of temperature and pressure. In turn, data assimilation requires careful selection, preprocessing, and bias-adjustment of the underlying observations. Our findings underline the great value of digitizing efforts of early instrumental data and provide novel opportunities to learn from extreme weather and climate events as far back as 200 years or more.

A Bayesian age from dispersed plagioclase and zircon dates in the Los Chocoyos ash, Central America

Article

Oct 2024
EARTH PLANET SC LETT

Disaster in the Ring of Fire and Black Swan Earthquake Theory (Techniques for Disaster Management with Modern Technology and Local Wisdom)

Book

Full-text available

Aug 2024

Azhari Aziz Samudra

This book can be a reference for Public Administration, Public Policy, and Disaster Mitigation Doctoral Program students. It aims to equip doctoral candidates and policymakers with a thorough understanding of natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and fault conditions in Indonesia and other regions worldwide. Also intended to provide an understanding of the causes and impacts of these disasters and the necessary solutions and decisions, individuals in these roles can effectively contribute to the well-being of communities. In addition, this book is addressed to stakeholders and policymakers at various levels of government in Indonesia, urging them to understand the reality of the geographical position of the Indonesian region which is located in this region Pacific Ring of Fire, along with 20 other countries. This emphasizes the seismic vulnerability of the region and the significance of the disaster Policymakers must have good information Evidence-based policy) and be proactive in making decisions. This book consists of four parts and 17 chapters, and diverse topics, from historical accounts of faults, earthquakes, and tsunamis to contemporary mitigation policies and practices. Part 1 explores the historical context of natural disasters in Indonesia, including significant events such as the Aceh tsunami and earthquake with 1,797 victims. Part 2 elucidates the geological causes of disasters, emphasizing phenomena like the Ring of Fire and fault lines. Part 3 focuses on mitigation policies and disaster management phases, elucidating the four stages of disaster management and drawing lessons from past disasters like the Aceh tsunami. Part 4 delves into utilizing local wisdom in disaster management, exploring ancient earthquake detection methods, bamboo utilization for earthquake detection, and traditional instruments like Kentongan bamboo, changes in seawater, changes in coral color, and animal restlessness in disaster warning systems.Parts 3 and 4 serve as the crux of the book, elucidating the importance of public and mitigation policies for policymakers at all levels of governance. It underscores the significance of integrating conventional methods employed by indigenous communities with contemporary approaches to disaster prevention and response. Through this holistic approach, policymakers can mitigate the adverse impacts of natural disasters and foster environmental stewardship to prevent future calamities originating from human actions. The book underscores the importance of integrating traditional wisdom with modern policies to manage natural disasters effectively. It advocates for proactive measures prioritizing environmental conservation and community resilience, thereby reducing the negative impact the negative impact of natural disasters caused by humans. With a comprehensive understanding of disaster dynamics and the application of local wisdom, policymakers can promote sustainable disaster management and practices that benefit society and environmental well-being.

Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

Article

Full-text available

Nov 1997

We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos (unforced variability) in climate change via ensembles of climate simulations in which we add forcings one by one. The experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979-1996 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic. But observed SST anomalies, which themselves are partly forced and partly chaotic, account for much of the climate variability at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. Both a natural radiative forcing (volcanic aerosols) and an anthropogenic forcing (ozone depletion) leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change that are identified in observations. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, causing a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. Solar irradiance effects are small, but our model is inadequate to fully explore this forcing. Well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a large surface warming that, over the 17 years, approximately offsets cooling by the other three mechanisms. Thus the net calculated effect of all measured radiative forcings is approximately zero surface temperature trend and zero heat storage in the ocean for the period 1979-1996. Finally, in addition to the four measured radiative forcings, we add an initial (1979) disequilibrium forcing of+0.65 W/m2. This forcing yields a global surface warming of about 0.2°C over 1979-1996, close to observations, and measurable heat storage in the ocean. We argue that the results represent evidence of a planetary radiative imbalance of at least 0.5 W/m2; this disequilibrium presumably represents unrealized warming due to changes of atmospheric composition prior to 1979. One implication of the disequilibrium forcing is an expectation of new record global temperatures in the next few years. The best opportunity for observational confirmation of the disequilibrium is measurement of ocean temperatures adequate to define heat storage.

The Last Great Subsistence Crisis in the Western World

Article

Apr 1978

The Laki and Tambora Eruptions as Revealed in Greenland Ice Cores from 11 Locations

Article

Jan 1988

Major volcanic eruptions deposit large amounts of strong acids in polar ice. Two such volcanic eruptions are Laki, A.D. 1783, at high latitude (64 °N), and Tambora, A.D. 1815, close to the Equator (8°S). The acid ice layers from these eruptions are easily reached by shallow drilling, and the acidity of the ice cores obtained has been determined by a solid electrical conductivity method (ECM), and in some cases by liquid pH measurements. The strong acid is identified by chemical anion analysis. Sulfate is the dominant anion in both of these volcanic events. Atmospheric thermonuclear-bomb tests ejected radioactive debris into the atmosphere. Two major groups of such tests are those carried out by the Americans in 1952-54 at low latitude (11°N) and by the Russians in 1961-62 at high latitude (75°N). Radioactive debris from these events was deposited in polar snow, and can be detected by specific total β activity measurements. The radioactive layers serve as dating horizons in the firn. The total β activities were measured at least 10 years after ejection, thus the measured activities were mainly due to 90Sr and 137Cs. The amount of 90Sr and 137Cs ejected into the atmosphere is known. We assumed a similar global distribution pattern of bomb-produced total β activity and strong acids from violent volcanic activity, and were able to calculate that both major volcanic events produced some 300 million tons of sulphuric acid. This is in agreement with other estimates of the Tambora eruption, which are based on studies of ice cores from Antarctica.

Volatile emission during the eruption of Baitoushan Volcano (China/North Korea) ca. 969 AD

Article

Feb 2000

1816 in perspective: The view from the Northeastern United States

Article

Jan 1992

W.R. Baron

1000 years of explosive volcanism recorded at the South Pole

Article

Sep 1992

Volcanoes of the World

Article

Jan 1981

A contribution to the knowledge of the Gunung Tambora (Sumbawa)

Article

W. Petroechevsky

Records of the Moravians in North Carolina.

Article

Nov 1955
J South Hist

The Year Without a Summer

Article

Jun 1979

The calamity of 1816-1817 is an interesting case history of the far reaching effects of a volcanic eruption. The chain of events began in 1815 with the eruption of Mount Tambora in the E Indies. The winter of 1816 extended into spring with frost in the middle of May in New England. Cold weather and scattered frost occurred in New England on June 6-11, July 9, August 21 and 30. The greatest damage was to summer crops such as corn and hay. The prices of many crops increased from 1816 until the harvest of crops in the spring- summer of 1817. Due to the shortage of forage, hogs and cattle were sold during the summer-fall of 1816, causing a decline in meat prices. Emigration increased from Vermont and Maine. Conditions were severe in many parts of western Europe. The disruptions of the Napoleonic Wars had caused some decline in farming and industry, especially in France. The poor crops of 1816 caused food shortages in France and Switzerland. by early 1817 there was famine in some cities among the poor. Political and economic difficulties continued until the harvest of 1817 brought significant relief. The weather of 1816 was one reason for low crop yields in Bengal and an outbreak of cholera. -Forrest McElhoe Jr